Monday, 3 September 2018

Seat Polling again

The brilliant Kevin Bonham examines the record of seat polling in lieu of the Super Saturday polls.

Can I make a suggestion.
It could well be that gaining an unbiased poll is much easier for a national poll than for a seat poll.
Thus it is much harder to gain a random sample of a seat than for the nation. Of course this matters not if the result is not close as in Mayo.

I do urge people not to get too excited about seat polls in Wentworth.

I do think the ALP have a fair chance in this seat because:

  1. Turnbull has an large  personal vote. I accede to Antony Green on this
  2. The Liberal's disgraceful behaviour which voters usually react badly to
  3. It involved the ousting of Turnbull ( for nothing)

No comments:

Post a Comment