Let us get it right on Haines attacker

 I see here and overseas people on the far right are alleging the criminal who has thus far caused Haines to lose two legs is a far left terrorist.

Huh.

Firstly if he was say active about being pro-palestine and the environment why in the hell would he run over Haines, It would make more sense to run over Hanson given her views not Haines. ( Yes I know it makes no sense but you know what I mean.)

Secondly if he was a terrorist he would be doing it for ideological reasons and thus Haines would have strong views diametrically opposed to what he believes and that simply is  not true.

Lastly his parents are friends of Haines. On the surface it makes no sense.

Now we find out he is suffering.

The evidence thus far suggests is is personal and irrational.

It reminds me of similar people rushing to the conclusion that the Bondi massacre was due to palestinian  protests when one link to ISIS would show you ISIS hates palestine!

Hillary Clinton was right

 In one of the debates of the 20126 election where she bested Trump she asserted Trump would be Putin's puppet and lead the USA out of NATO.

She was right and the USA is much poorer for this.

I will outsource the remainder to Kruggers. Read the Phillips O'Brien link as well.

It does show how stupid some MAGA followers are when they believe Putin that the increase in the number of NATO nations was one of the reasons for the war. NATO is like most military treaties is a defensive treaty. IF one of the NATO counties invaded another country like Russia then none of the fellow members would come to their side.

It also shows they do not follow Putin's speeches as he has constantly said Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia.

The world is a cesspit

 I am depressed.

Helen Haines

Everybody loves Helen Haines. In a sense it is understandable. She is an independent and thus unlikely to be in government and so can enunciate her views without fear or favour. Now someone has tried to kill her. It is appalling.

French riots

It seems no-one is sure who is behind the riots in France.  Mike Johnson and Emmanuel Macron blame far lefits. flags of the  hammer and sickle would seem to indicate that might have a kernel of truth. However our own public intellectual (sarc) Barnaby Joyce blames immigration and islamists. He  produced no evidence as usual to back up his claim. most of the protesters looks white to me and the journos covering it. A coalition of islamists and commies is so far fetched  that it even defies the pub test. Barnaby it is people like you not 'THEM' that are to blame.

Whoopsy I should have added riots in france over politics has been going on since at least 1968. Obviously some people have not known this.

The USA becomes an ally of Russia.

Tom Nicholls is correct in his synopsis.People have long speculated on why Trump sides with Putin. Remember trump is very stupid but thinks he is bright. That is manna from heaven to a former KGB agent.

Now something to cheer up with. Alex Tabarrok says no to AI crowding out. only problem is whether we are in a speculative AI 'boom'. For example it is absurd to argue the tulip boom did not crowd out investment. Investors were wrong in their investment decisions then. They might be now.

Go Noah

 Noah Smith of noahpinion ( get it) has a great column.

Here it is.

why-are-we-ruled-by-barbarians

Around the Traps 16/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jane Goodall on examined-lives Thanks Nick
• Marta Khomyn on after-firmus-shelved-the-biggest-asx-listing-in-30-years-what-does-it-say-to-investors-about-ai-hype
• burnout economics on australian-headline-growth-masks-failing-economy
• Antony Green on the-pattern-of-one-nation-support-in-nsw
• Susan Thorp on a-record-82-of-australian-home-loans-now-rely-on-mortgage-brokers-why
• Patrick Commins on australia-has-never-driven-migration-into-reverse-by-design-would-slamming-the-brakes-on-be-calamitous
• Ross Gittins on i-m-sick-of-immigration-being-blamed-for-problems-it-doesn-t-cause
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-urgent-choices-albanese-australia
• Peter McDonald on australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
• Nader Naderpajouh et al on australia-urgently-needs-a-national-bushfire-database-heres-what-it-could-look-like
• David Sanderson et al on 3-things-we-need-to-get-right-ahead-of-extreme-bushfire-risk-this-summer
• the tally room on new demosAU MRP how a small swing costs a lot of seats
• Kimberlee Weatherall et al on australias-digital-duty-of-care-was-just-introduced-to-parliament-so-whats-in-the-bill
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-in-australia-hits-a-five-year-high-of-4-7-making-a-rates-hike-less-likely

OZ Climate

• australias-most-powerful-battery-free-to-trade-on-market-in-major-change-to-shock-absorber-contract
  
• look-no-turbines-natural-landscape-returns-at-site-of-decommissioned-wind-farm
  
• we-dont-use-horoscopes-to-shape-national-energy-plans-so-why-put-so-much-faith-in-complex-modelling
  
• the-queensland-lnp-plan-for-coal-powered-data-centres-could-cost-taxpayers-20-billion-a-pop
  
• no-economic-case-global-experts-say-nuclear-has-role-in-some-countries-but-makes-no-sense-in-australia
  
• when-renewable-abundance-becomes-the-story-what-a-record-breaking-weekend-reveals-about-the-grid 
  
• doesnt-make-sense-australias-biggest-power-generator-not-interested-in-new-coal-fired-power-plants
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  
• how-do-we-power-the-data-centre-boom-while-also-quitting-coal-there-are-three-options
  
• large-scale-renewables-projects-reached-record-levels-of-investment-sign-offs-in-the-september-quarter-bowen-says
  
• wind-developer-signs-community-benefit-deals-worth-up-to-160m-to-end-stalemate-over-called-in-projects
• consumers-need-renewables-but-the-gentailers-are-going-for-gas-and-the-esem-cavalry-is-still-over-the-horizon
  
• Graham Readfearn on australia-solar-panels-uptake-record-through-roof, is-it-really-madness-to-account-for-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-burned-overseas-the-coalition-sure-thinks-so
• Hayley Pring  on the-high-court-looked-at-coal-climate-emissions-overseas-but-what-about-emissions-at-home

Northern America

• Richard Hanania on the-feminization-discourse-as-partisan-hackery Thanks Nick
• Chapin Lenthall-Cleary on men-are-more-tolerant-of-the-other-side-than-women-are-of-their-own Thanks Nick
• noahpinion  on maybe-the-rapture-is-already-here, why-donald-trump-won-in-2024, ai-vs-the-railroads
• platypus economics on america-doesnt-have-a-shortage-of-red-dye Thanks Tyler
• Kruggers on will-ai-crowd-out-jobs, arithmetic-suffers-from-trump-derangement-syndrome, elon-musk-shows-us-why-oligarchy-is-a-danger, nerobefehl-nation, on-inflation-trump-snatched-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory, the-bad-news-on-inflation-just-keeps-on-rising
• Zaid Jilani on texas-bo-french-indian-far-right-hate
• Adam Serwer on texas-university-censorship-free-speech
• Brad De Long on crosspost-claudia-sahm-hand-the-pen-to-the-committee, an-inflation-report-that-is-disappointingly-high, crosspost-seva-gunitsky-trumps-near-abroad, the-first-time-a-fed-easing-move-has-triggered-a-large-move in -long-term-bond-yields
• William McRaven on public-execution-nidal-hasan 
• Menzie Chinn on steve-kamin-tales-from-the-dollar-yield-curve-nexus
• Fred Kaplan on trump-putin-diesel-deal-ukraine-republicans-midterms
• David Graham on trump-doj-ilhan-omar-search
• Jonathan Chait on trump-russia-putin-oil
• Harry Litman on bring-me-the-head-of-cassidy-hutchinson 
• Michael Schmitt and Ryan Goodman on fueling-russias-war-diesel-deal-international-law 
• Liz Dye on ilhan-omar-raid-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on democrats-trump-response-project-2029
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-israel-first-mike-huckabee-david-milstein
• Cameron Peters on katie-zacharia-press-secretary-fired
• Sussan Glasser on trumps-october-surprise-is-a-pivot-to-putin

Europe

• Lauren Collins on whats-driving-the-french-student-protests
• open mind on 250-years-of-cet-central-england-temperature
• mainly macro on interest-rates-and-budget-deficits
• Chris Dillow on the-wrong-way
• Julian Novitz on sally-rooneys-books-are-being-withdrawn-from-sale-in-the-uk-due-to-her-support-for-palestine-action
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-russia-trump-putin-war

Asia

• Safiulla Taye et al on the-war-on-terror-failed-afghanistan-but-the-peoples-hopes-for-democracy-live-on
• Hunter Marston on what-to-make-of-china-s-new-air-facility-in-laos 
• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-s-overseas-workers-fund-the-regime-and-may-undermine-it-too
• Amin Saikal on yemen-is-spiralling-into-another-civil-war-that-could-swiftly-engulf-in-the-entire-region
• Kripa Anand on india-s-blue-economy-growth-is-outpacing-its-safeguards 
• Lynne O'Donnell on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Isaac Chotiner on is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-indian-democracy
• Tyler Cowen on china-fact-of-the-day
• Benedict Moleta on israel-soon-heads-to-the-polls-while-palestinian-democracy-remains-on-hold-hamas-looms-over-both
• Shadi Saif on could-the-taliban-s-new-road-to-china-drive-negotiating-power
• Mehdi Hasan on naza-israel-film 
• William Christou on israeli-settlers-attack-olive-farmers-west-bank-washington-post-journalist-heidi-levine

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-contrarian-buy-signal-on-bonds
• Michael Lind on carl-schmitts-war-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-are-global-bond-yields-rising
• Tim Harford on is-the-modern-economy-a-bit-samey
• Michelle Burgis-Kasthala on trump-misses-out-on-nobel-prize-again-and-imposes-new-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court-what-does-it-mean
• Joshua Gans on the-acemoglu-gans-exchange-on-ai Thanks Tyler 
• the conversable economics on 1974-when-both-nobel-economists-proposed-abolishing-the-prize , how-to-keep-global-agricultural-output-rising
• Alex Tabarrok on the-nobel-prize-goes-to-robert-hall-and-michael-woodford
• Brad De Long on a-second-rate-philosopher-i-cannot-read-in-his -original-greek , crosspost-larry-macdonald-how-karl-marx-achieved-financial-independence
• Ruiping Lui and Sagarika Mishra on whos-paying-whom-the-circular-money-machine-behind-the-ai-boom-or-bubble
• noahpinion on a-nobel-for-new-keynesian-macro-at-last
• home and away on ignoble
• Jeet Heer on ai-warfare-threat

General

• Jillian Hess on how-john-steinbeck-actually-wrote-east-of-eden Thanks Nick

Climate

• Fiona Harvey on ipcc-pressure-delay-publication-climate-report-ar7-cop33
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windprice , new_research
• Nick Evershed on just-what-damage-can-the-emissions-from-a-new-fossil-fuel-facility-cause-a-new-tool-has-estimates
• ocean acidification on ocean-warming-could-cut-omega-3-levels-in-seafood-study-finds

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• thinking-more-seriously-about-the-design-of-exploratory-studies-a-manifesto
  
• digital-twins-version-2-0-the-skeptics-speak-up
  
• the-problem-is-noise-not-n-why-increasing-the-sample-size-isnt-all-that
  
• columbia-university-president-says-we-believe-in-difficult-conversations-at-columbia-in-a-broad-embrace-of-freedom-of-expression-its-in-our-dna
  
• jama-rules-of-engagement
  
•  the-head-and-the-heart 
• survey-statistics-favorite-textbooks
  
• ok-heres-a-new-scam-but-i-cant-figure-out-how-its-supposed-to-work
  
• why-do-almost-all-the-cell-phone-numbers-have-no-0s-or-1s
  
• frustration-when-authors-dodge-criticism
  
• how-surprising-is-it-that-lebron-averaged-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists-in-his-career-but-never-had-one-game-where-he-had-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists
  
• seeking-to-interview-social-scientists-experimenting-with-llm-simulations-of-opinions-or-behavior
  
• freakometrics on can you be too old to insure
• Kaiser Fung on directionally-correct-bars

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Isaac Chotiner on anti-zionism-benjamin-moser-book-review Thanks Nick
• John Hawkins on this-economist-believes-the-system-is-broken-maybe-she-has-a-point
• stoat on book-review-sciences-and-philosophy 
• Tyler Cowen on lost-worlds , plunder-the-last-of-the-war-in-europe-1945
• David Frum on david-frum-show-illia-ponomarenko-ukraine-trump

Vox Wonk

• your-debt-my-inflation-role-trust-ecb 
  
• ideas-and-firm-dynamics-when-it-takes-two-tango 
  
• fiscal-populism-and-monetary-policy-rules 
  
• size-and-speed-tariff-pass-through-consumer-prices 
  
• financial-sanctions-and-global-payments-network 
  
• ratings-debt-and-deficits-exploration 
  
• risk-or-responsive-rethinking-unemployment-policy 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• connecting-payment-systems-linking-economies 
  
• tokenised-finance-towards-better-markets 
  
• small-beautiful-2050-europes-digital-economy-mesh-not-hub 
  
• accounting-cross-country-income-differences-two-decades-progress
  

Some must reads

 Busy today so some great articles to read.

• australia-has-problem-or-two , why-are-global-bond-yields-rising 
  
• australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  

enjoy

more of a whole bunch of things

 Test Cricket

SA showed they were short of a gallop. They bowled too short when they were swinging the ball more than us and their spinners looked ordinary ( after being guns in India). They will have Rabana back for the next two tests and the reason he is the premier bowler he is is that he swings the ball late and bowls a fuller length. Their batting looked ordinary except for Markram and Bedingham. Bavuma looked out of sorts and lost his first test. Their keeper had a test to forget. If SA want to know how they lost go back when you should had have us out for less than 200 but decided to bowl short to tailenders. I would not be surprised at a new keeper and some new batsmen.

We were lucky. Our batting again showed up weaknesses. One decent match or innings does not solve this. Our bowlers cannot get us out of losing if the batting keeps on struggling. Nortje only bowled around mid 140ks but still unnerved our batsmen.

The attendance was a disgrace.

Onto Port Elizabeth

Omar

Her home in Washington got raided. We are told this is about her citizenship however that is way past the statute of limitations. It is also highly unlikely the authorities got new information just now that meant the 60 day 'rule' had to be rejected. Certainly no explanation has been given. I'm no fan of hers but this raid looks very political. Saying Pirro is investigating her also means they have nothing as she is worse than useless

Witkoff and Kushner

Why anyone would think these two could do anything in regards to Russia/Ukraine is beyond me. They believe Putin when he says he has almost taken the Donetsk region. Why do they believe him because they have no intelligence on the war at hand BY DESIGN. It gets worse. When they finish with their 'talks' they then begin to negotiate trade deals.

Guilfoyle

This ambassadorship typifies Trump. She is a grifter of the highest order but a very stupid one. ( If I can make a sexist statement she looks and dresses like a tart. Also very trumpian)

Texan senate race.

I have to say how could anyone vote for a person whose name is Paxton!! You know it aint going the GOP when Paxton is caught partying with criminals in the gulf. The story about the democrat recovering in a mental institution in Ohio blows in the people's faces.

Premier League

If the allegations against Manchester City prove to be true then they should be relegated. This is what occurred in Italy.

Gerard Henderson watch

 I have decided since our mate Gerard  calls all people he disagrees with as comrade I will call him Herr Henderson.

I should say from the outset I have rarely read a person who sneers and is so condescending and then criticizes others. for the same thing.

Herr Henderson said a while ago it was a lot of tosh that Hanson's daughter  who is living in tasmania but working for a NSW senator that she could not do the job as others were doing this.. Now it could be he says this as he was a failed chief of staff for Howard when he was Opposition leader. Herr Henderson might even support working from home fulltime however it is a joke to think a person in another state could do a decent job. Interaction is a necessity assuming she is doing research and not electoral work.The number of mobile phone calls would be enormous assuming her phone is in the right areas. so it rings and she is the office. We know One Nation senators do not do a lot of work and their speeches are never livened with much research. Add this to the fact that Hanson's daughter is trying to be a senator then it seems highly likely taxpayers are subsidising her candidacy. All this is news to Herr Henderson. Can you bear it.

He had a go at Ross Gittins who was actually wrong about why the RBA is now independent when conducting monetary policy. He made the point previously government's did the hard yards with fiscal policy. Herr Henderson alleges Ross was not giving government spending enough recognition. I said previously Herr Henderson did not understand economics and this is a clear example. Ross was actually doing this he merely mentioned taxation! Can you bear it.

When Taylor had a trainwreck of an interview with Sarah Ferguson he claimed she was rudley scolded him. Strange few others saw this.Nor did he like Sally Sara interviewing Matt Canavan on the topic who clearly did not address the question Sara had to ask quite a few times. Remember you cannot interject when anyone does not answer the question asked according to Herr Henderson. Can you bear it.

He also had a rambling account of how white skinned Shoebridge beat the pakistani Faruqi and how ironic he supported DEI. I will leave that but Herr Henderson then said if she had have won, likely  if all green members could vote, she would be as bad a Mamdani in NY. Huh his approval rating is in the 60s. Most people rate him as a superb political athlete! Does anyone really think Faruqi is in the same class as Mamdani. Can you bear it. 

Herr Henderson never examines the faux paus at Sky after dark ( yeah I know they have changed their name but I like saying it). So Peta Credlin makes a rookie mistake of saying THE GOVERNMENT took being jewish off the census he never mentions it. It has NEVER been on a census. Real journalists do not do that. Mediawatch for example has frequently highlighted ABC errors. Not Herr Hendersson though

After Ian Dunt (a person who Herr Henderson dislikes) said Ed Miliband had done a good job he pointed out energy costs had rose when Miliband was minster implying it was because of Miliband's support of renewables. Whoops Herr Henderson obviously missed the UK's reliance on gas and how far gas  prices rose following the invasion of Ukraine. This is why the UK's inflation so much more than other nations. As I have previously said Herr Henderson has little understanding of economics! Can you bear it.

A whole bunch of things.

 Livestreaming a firing squad

I agree with Steve from Brisbane. Although I have no problems with him getting the death penalty a that is the only punishment that fits the crime livestreaming it is depraved. the USa joins yemen, Afghanistan and Iran!!!

Credit Card blues

The ATO decided not to accept credit payments and some people blew up about it. The question that was never asked is why is anyone using a credit card to pay the ATO given the interest rate you pay? You can borrow on almost anything else and get a lower rate. Are all small business people this stupid?

Mark the Graph.

He is at it again with a superb article on why-are-global-bond-yields-rising. It is a must read.

UK

The labour party won Stermer's seat showing the Burnham afterglow is still occurring. I wonder how many poms realise how bad brexit has been for the UK?

russia/Ukraine war

Trump makes ac deal with Putin on diesel oil which will be very hard to deliver and Zelensky is not impressed. nor are many others. Trump wants Zelensky replaced and again blames him for the war and why peace talks have failed. Is there a better example of his ignorance and cognitive decline?

Around the Traps 9/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on australias-current-account-deficit-is-increasing-should-we-care, the-twi-and-monetary-policy-tightness, the-twi-and-monetary-policy-tightness_part2
• Milad Haghani on byd-is-reshaping-australias-car-market-how-did-it-get-here
• Patrick Commins on canada-migration-technical-recession-economy-lessons-for-australia
• Hal Pawson on this-chart-tells-you-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-downturn-in-property-prices
• Mathew Crocker on before-the-budget-how-governor-phillip-managed-without-cash-in-the-colony
• Adam Simpson on the-greens-have-squibbed-it-on-ukraine-abandoning-a-democracy-under-attack
• Ross Gittins on the-economy/trying-to-tame-inflation-with-higher-interest-rates-is-dumb-and-unfair
• Alan Gamlen on the-coalitions-migration-policy-rests-on-a-series-of-false-premises
• Andrew Norton on the-coalitions-migration-changes-would-slash-international-student-enrolments
• Fengfei Li on are-you-seeing-new-service-fees-since-the-card-surcharge-ban-here-are-the-rules
• Antony Green on nsw2027-how-optional-preferential-voting-could-re-elect-the-minns-government
• Abul Rizvi on angus-taylor-coalition-immigration-plan-misses-target-politics-policy
• Antipodean macro professional on antipodean-housing-deep-dive-1
• Sarah Canales on net-overseas-migration-how-do-policies-compare-labor-coalition-one-nation
• Stewart Lockie et al on the-migration-debate-has-a-big-blind-spot-much-of-regional-australia-is-shrinking
• Flavio Menezes on why-a-greens-plan-for-624-public-supermarkets-to-take-on-woolies-and-coles-just-doesnt-add-up
• Greg Jericho on australia-is-building-a-lot-of-new-homes-but-is-the-datacentre-boom-holding-us-back
• Donovan Castelyn on some-small-businesses-are-paying-tax-bills-with-credit-cards-what-will-happen-when-they-cant

OZ Climate

• huge-195-tonne-transformer-arrives-at-big-battery-site-after-1300-km-road-trip
  
• australia-is-making-big-bets-on-a-slow-transition-but-the-technology-s-curve-tells-a-different-story
  
• biggest-wind-farm-in-two-years-reaches-financial-close-the-ninth-in-last-12-months
  
• origin-wants-to-supersize-the-eraring-battery-to-make-it-easily-the-biggest-in-the-country
  
• rooftop-pv-system-sizes-feel-the-battery-effect-but-its-still-a-bumper-year-for-home-solar
  
• utility-solar-power-hits-record-high-in-first-month-of-spring-as-gas-generation-falls-to-new-low
  
• tilting-at-wind-masts-turbine-giant-dismisses-littleprouds-rant-against-dangerous-monitoring-equipment
  
• electrifying-apartment-buildings-is-complex-but-huge-cost-savings-from-ditching-gas-justify-the-pain
  
• solar-recycling-could-lose-its-silver-lining-expert-tells-inquiry-as-case-for-mandatory-fee-stacks-up
  
• australian-wind-farm-starts-hit-record-levels-but-the-technology-is-dead-in-the-state-that-needs-it-most
  
• rooftop-solar-smashes-output-records-in-two-states-as-home-batteries-dull-grid-impact-in-sunny-spring
  
• the-great-big-solar-soak-batteries-are-starting-to-drive-up-midday-electricity-prices
• australias-first-transmission-loop-between-three-states-set-to-fundamentally-change-flow-of-electricity
  
• south-australia-may-reach-its-100-pct-net-renewables-target-a-year-or-two-late-but-it-wont-be-the-fault-of-households
  
• Graham Readfearn on australia-weather-el-nino-climate-crisisseptember-record
• Kumuthini Sivathas and Sussan Stone on why-are-new-wind-farms-stuck-in-the-doldrums-in-australia
• Michael-Shawn Fletcher et al on colonisation-not-climate-change-first-primed-these-forests-to-burn
• Md Qays on youve-probably-never-heard-of-synchronous-condensers-but-theyre-essential-in-the-push-for-renewables

Northern America

• Kruggers on the-midterms, who-dropped-the-bonds-interest-rates-part11, the-trump-administration-is-a-cesspit-of-corruption, ai-versus-everything-else, 
• noahpinion on the-second-trump-presidency-is-a-world-historic-failure , what-the-ai-boom-is-doing-for-americans, there-is-no-indian-question
• new deal democrat on september-jobs-report-a-weakly-positive-report-consistent-with-an-inflationary-expansion, leading-indicators-from-the-september-employment-report-continue-positive-trends
• the conversable economist on financial-literacy-how-many-can-pass-the-test , nequity-in-k-12-school-spending, the-challenge-of-us-rural-development
• Rachel Landingham on pete-hegseth-military-state-of-the-force-speech-rhetoric
• Ivana Damjanovic on why-an-eu-associate-membership-is-the-wrong-canada-story 
• Jonathan Blitzer on ice-is-everywhere-and-acting-with-impunity
• Brad De Long on aggregate-total-factor-productivity-and-artificial-intelligence , crosspost-steve-vladeck-256-so-unexplained, crosspost-justin-wolfers-an-agreement-to-agree-on-an-earlier-agreement
• skeptical science on america-hurtling-toward-power-grid-crisis
• Ian Philbrick on trump-nato-allies-biden-china
• Menzie Chinn on reconciling-expected-revenues-to-expenditures

Europe

• Mark Poynting on swiss glaciers suffer disastrous year of ice loss, threatening water supplies  
• Thomas Jeffries on the-death-of-a-russian-plague-researcher-explained-by-a-microbiologist
• mainly macro on misconceptions-following-burnhams-speech
• Phillips O'Brien on divide-and-rule-the-us-strategy-towards-europe Thanks Ben Hodge
• Ian Hill on russia-doubling-down-in-ukraine-and-against-the-west
• Chris Dillow on who-needs-thought
• Kruggers on whats-the-matter-with-france 
• Tyler Cowen on how-and-why-did-the-victorians-succeed

Asia

• Christopher Eylward on how-beijing-could-throttle-taiwan-without-firing-a-shot
• Hilman Palaon on indonesia-new-finance-minister-faces-test-of-delivery
• Eyal Mayroz on three-years-after-october-7-global-attention-on-gaza-has-receded-the-real-test-will-come-after-israels-election
• Adam Kirsch on zionism-israel-palestine-history
• Henry Storey on south-korea-rides-the-ai-boom-unevenly
• Alan Eyre on oil-hormuz-iran-war
• Brad De Long on crossposthighlighted-robert-farley-October7-and-now-everything-has-got-worse
• Amir Tibon on nahal-oz-israel-elections-netanyahu
• David Remnick on will-netanyahu-escape-his-reckoning
• Hunter Parson on what-to-make-of-china-s-new-air-facility-in-laos 
• Mosab Toha on back-to-school-in-gaza

Wonk

• Yanis Varoufakis on the-centre-lefts-slow-suicide Thanks Nick
• Rob Henderson on no-one-expects-young-men-to-do-anything Thanks Nick
• symbolic capitalism on on-education Thanks Nick
• James Lind on the-importance-of-james-burnham Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch, the-greg-clark-symposium, the-origin-of-risk
• Brad De Long on the-highly-cultured-vladimir-lenin-sanewashing-of-the-day 
• Debora Thome on brazil-elections-2026-first-round-victories-demand-a-commitment-to-democracy-by-the-far-right-that-has-not-yet-been-made
• Mark the Graph on its-brave-new-world
• Alex Tabbarok on against-laissez-faire-democracy
• home and away on from-wars-of-choice-to-war-of-choices

General

• Sacha Morel on the-catcher-in-the-rye-is-75-and-every-time-i-meet-holden-caulfield-i-see-him-anew
• Tim Harford on i-was-wrong-about-bad-girl-books
• Michelle Campbell-Ward on africas-rhinos-often-get-the-spotlight-but-indonesias-two-rhino-species-are-far-closer-to-extinction
• Robert Lucas on how-pond-algae-led-to-a-nobel-prize-and-a-new-way-to-study-the-brain
• Jay Silverstein on secret-chambers-in-tutankhamuns-tomb-could-hold-the-burial-of-a-lost-egyptian-queen-we-may-get-answers-soon
• Donna Lu on astronomy-fast-radio-bursts-frb-radio-waves

Climate

• Jacqueline Peel on in-a-year-of-record-breaking-heat-australia-and-pacific-leaders-meet-to-sharpen-climate-goals
• David Appell on el-nino-regions-amazing-sst
• Wesley Morgan and Liam Moore on 1-5-c-to-stay-alive-pacific-countries-demand-the-world-makes-good-on-climate-promises
• ocean acidification on carbon-in-the-ocean
• open mind on co2-growth-and-el-nino
• skeptical science on world-without-solar-and-wind, new_research
• Charles Hunt et al on pacific-people-pay-exorbitant-prices-for-energy-rich-countries-should-back-their-renewable-transition
• James Hopeward et al on hoping-for-a-new-normal-climate-is-pointless-we-must-learn-to-adapt

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• if-you-were-planning-to-send-me-a-chatbot-written-email-or-post-a-chatbot-written-comment-just-send-or-post-your-prompt
  
• using-the-computer-to-p-hack-id-rather-use-it-to-fit-multilevel-models
  
• a-plan-to-replicate-the-loftus-and-palmer-1974-on-false-memories
  
• ok-this-is-just-weird-from-alaska-airlines
  
• survey-statistics-2-different-uses-of-simulated-data
  
• our-unending-struggles-with-the-monster-model
  
• whats-the-deal-with-the-rmet-the-reading-the-mind-in-the-eyes-test
  
• statschat on fool-me-twice
• Kaiser Fung on the-art-of-curation

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Emmett Stinson on written-as-a-single-sentence-adam-oustons-mine-is-a-novel-under-the-influence
• Marina Bolotnokova on opposite-of-happiness-loewenstein
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• strategic-sovereignty-social-movements-and-political-agency-evidence-us-israeli 
  
• hiding-mean-ai-adding-jobs-and-removing-them-same-time 
  
• impact-ai-and-cross-border-data-regulation-international-trade-digital-services
  
• bonding-through-crises-nonbank-financial-institutions 
  
• venture-capital-global-perspective
  
• not-all-geopolitical-shocks-are-inflationary
  
• worker-managed-firms-can-curb-inequality-and-protect-free-markets
  
• adjustment-danish-labour-market-ai-has-begun  
  
• cultural-norms-matter-macroeconomic-development
  

The Opposition's immigration policy is a joke

Here are a few views:

• Alan Gamlan
• Andrew Norton
• Abul Rizvi
• Stewart Lockie et al
  

Okay so these experts can see quite a few problems. The Opposition answered none of my questions and it appears to have used the PBO not as much as they claimed in saying they had done the costings for them. Certainly Taylor could not answer some simple questions about their policy.

We expect this from One Nation as they are both lazy and stupid but we expect a lot better from the LNP!

I need a reason to vote for them and they keep on refuse to do that.

There should be NO march today

 I have said previously some supporters of palestine possess no political understanding. Today I am repeating myself.

I support the creation of Israel as the UN did way back in 1947.

However on October 7 an unspeakable evil was affected  on Israeli people a lot who were sympathetic to the palestinian cause. The day should be left alone.

You can protect any day but this one about the creation of Palestine and the genocide imposed on palestinian people by the government of Israel but leave October 7 silent.

It does not help your cause demonstrating today indeed it may lead people to oppose your cause.

Demonstrating today is simply trumpian. Do not do it!

the coalition on immigration

 We are told in breat-taking fashion the coalition is releasing their policy on immigration today.

I have written about immigration before. I would not be surprised if we hear generalities today on HOW they will cut immigration as there are massive problems that occur when you want to massively cut immigration.

Let us assume they will leave backpackers alone to help the agricultural sector. Then this means they will have to cut in large terms

• family reunions (one of which is aussies who marry foreigners), 
• skilled labour for industry
• unskilled labour for retail and such  ( where uni students are important)
• foreign students at tertiary institutions

It will also have large effects on the budget in that it will increase the deficit.

Also very important is the politics. Imagine such a large cut is implemented. There would be a very loud hue and cry from those people and institutions affected.

I very much doubt we we will get any specifics form the Opposition

public holidays

Today in Sydanee ( forgotten the olympics already?) we celebrate a public holiday.

We do have a number

January 1  new years day

January 26  australia day

April 3 easter friday

April 4 day following 

April 5 easter sunday

April 6 easter monday 

April 25 anzac day

April 27 anzac day holiday

June 8 kings birthday

october 5 labour day

december 25 christmas day

Australia became a nation on January 1 not 26! We have had three following public holidays because they were on the weekend. We celebrate a birthday on the wrong day.

We are lucky in Australia as we get 4 weeks recreation leave. We also have a number of public holidays as well.

Surely we should only have public holidays for celebrating significant events.

Let me make some recommendations.

Make January 1 Australia day as that is when we became a nation. I am happy to keep easter but no catch up on a monday ( same with christmas.) Why do we celebrate a bad military defeat? Why not the end of a world war?

I am also happy to keep labour day as it is important in our nation's history.

There should be no catch up on a monday because a significant day occurred on the weekend. It only desecrates the importance of the day!

Around the Traps 2/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Christoph Nedopil on chinas-economy-is-changing-rapidly-its-no-longer-australias-easy-export-market
• Abu Barkat on australias-legacy-systems-were-already-a-cyber-risk-ai-agents-are-raising-the-stakes
• Michelle Grattan on larissa-waters-steps-down-as-greens-leader-due-to-health-reasons
• Stella Huangfu on rba-lifts-rates-to-highest-level-in-15-years-risking-a-sharper-slowdown-of-the-economy
• Mick Ryan on fast-following-edge-australia-defence-needs
• Hangga Fathana on australia-s-migration-dilemma-short-term-pressures-long-term-costs
• Saul Eslake on rba-inflation-blame-game-politicians-reserve-bank-australia
• Isaac Gross on inflation-lifts-to-4-0-in-august-keeping-pressure-on-the-rba-for-another-rate-rise
• Alan Duncan on interest-rates-have-hit-their-highest-level-since-2011-the-pain-will-feel-different-in-2026
• Greg Jericho on turbocharged-petrol-prices-driving-inflation-rba-rates-recession-employment
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on are-australians-really-overtaxed-it-depends-what-you-think-government-should-do
• Millie Muroi on unemployment-probably-does-need-to-climb-for-now

OZ Climate

• some-solar-panels-are-only-2-years-old-when-theyre-discarded-pv-expert-says-retirement-fee-could-fix-this
  
• uncharted-territory-fears-as-weather-whiplash-sparks-tree-die-off-and-dials-up-bushfire-risk
  
• too-much-wind-and-solar-the-state-wide-blackout-and-the-dinner-party-that-changed-the-course-of-history
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-finally-completed-and-acting-as-giant-shock-absorber-to-the-grid
  
• australian-households-installed-record-amount-of-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-in-first-half-of-2026
  
• productivity-has-been-weak-mining-and-construction-are-the-main-culprits-just-look-at-diesel-and-lng
  
• its-been-10-years-since-the-blackout-of-south-australia-could-it-happen-again
  
• the-future-of-farming-is-electric-but-outdated-rules-can-force-us-to-pay-market-rates-for-our-own-solar
  
• the-revolutionary-methane-detection-technology-that-probably-wont-fit-into-our-regulatory-box
  
• its-made-us-more-wasteful-solar-and-battery-homes-plug-in-to-a-new-age-of-abundant-energy
  
• origin-energy-drops-plan-for-massive-wind-project-in-new-england-citing-rising-costs
• still-in-the-dark-snowy-hydros-awkward-anniversary-marked-without-promised-review-of-snowy-2-costings
  
• Michael Vardon on unsustainable-or-manageable-we-dont-yet-know-how-data-centres-will-impact-australias-environment
• Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al on we-can-finally-measure-the-damage-each-new-coal-gas-or-oil-project-will-do-to-people-and-nature
• Phil Brewer on as-el-nino-strengthens-across-the-pacific-australian-farmers-could-face-fierce-frosts
• Liz Hicks on nsws-largest-coal-mine-project-is-set-to-expand-heres-what-authorities-got-wrong-about-the-trade-offs

Northern America

• John Quiggin on us-republicans-are-worse-than-any-far-right-european-party Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on booms-bombs-and-bonds-interest-rates-part1, i-approve-of-trumps-ad, the-beclowning-of-scott-bessent, one-more-reason-americans-hate-ai, a-globalist-comeback
• Elizabeth Bruening on maga-right-christianity-empathy-toxic, a-who-you-gonna-believe-election
• Julian Hill on trump-unable-to-stop-clean-energy-revolution-as-wind-and-solar-output-surges-and-coal-shrinks
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oligarchy-is-a-symptom-not-the-cause
• the conversable economist on i-would-like-the-value-of-my-home-to-rise-while-my-property-taxes-fall
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-missouri-gerrymander-lower-courts-are-crazy
• Shirin Ali on watch-republican-eric-schmitt-jack-smith-perjury-hawks
• noahpinion on stop-spending-money-on-smaller-classes
• Dahlia Lithwick on donald-trump-white-house-press-ban-fail
• Helen Lewis on maga-senate-hearing-eric-schmitt
• home and away on venue
• Jeet Heer on kimberly-guilfoyle-is-a-master-of-mafia-diplomacy, susan-collins-scandal-election
• Brad De Long on us-rooftop-solar-stalled-2026, 
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-state-of-force-address
• Harry Litman on the-gig-may-be-up-for-trump-and-blanche
• Sarah Fitzpatrick on kash-patel-fbi-trump-midterm-elections

Europe

• James Skinner and Danny Hill on stripped-titles-compensating-rivals-how-the-manchester-city-cheating-scandal-could-play-out
• Maksym Beznosiuk and Thom Reilly on ukraine-war-russia-occupation-construction
• David Galbreath on us-attempts-to-control-ukraines-attacks-on-russia-reflect-a-fundamental-strategic-disconnect
• mainly macro on populist-tendencies-on-uk-left-and-the-puzzle-that-never-was

Asia

• Ann Neuburger on new-chinese-way-of-cyberwar-ai Thanks Nick
• Jaideep Saikia on china-s-gwadar-gamble-isn-t-paying-off
• Vivian Salama on egypt-israel-gaza-hamas-palestinian-october-7
• Afeeya Akhand on south-korea-s-food-waste-model-and-its-limits
• Robin Wright on irans-bitterness-and-bewilderment-over-how-to-make-peace-with-trump
• Peter Beinart on robert-kraft-netanyahu-israel-supporters

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-simon-ehrlich-wager-over-125-years
• programmable mutter on machine-god-metaphors-eat-your-brain Thanks Nick
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-xi-summit-who-is-competing
• noahpinion on wheres-the-intelligence-explosion, roundup-89-it-isnt-x-its-y
• the conversable economist on s-shaped-utility-curves-poverty-and-risk-taking
• Neophytos Georgiou on are-autistic-people-more-vulnerable-to-extremist-content
• Svitlana Chernkyh et al on can-we-predict-genocide-by-listening-to-what-leaders-say-research-finds-common-threads
• Abhijnan Rej on claude-for-clausewitz
• Ved Shinde on speed-over-judgement-is-winning-the-ai-arms-race
• Nicholas Gruen on accountability-from-above-and-below
• Chris Dillow on who-wants-free-markets
• Mark the Graph on the-fragile-equilibrium
• Stephen Leib and Guido Junior on with-a-tragedy-averted-the-flydubai-incident-has-put-cockpit-security-under-new-scrutiny

General

• Brad De Long on an-lushan-industrial-revolution-china-great-divergence
• Luke Steller et al on how-sugar-from-outer-space-became-one-of-the-backbones-of-life-on-earth

Climate

• ocean acidification on thermal-history-and-behavioural-plasticity-shape-reef-fish-tolerance-to-marine-heatwaves, the-future-of-aquatic-food-systems-climate-change-adaptation-and-resilience-strategies-a-narrative-review
• Tina Soliman-Hunter on floating-power-plants-could-offer-coastal-communities-a-reliable-energy-source-heres-how
• Graham Readfearn on antarctic-winter-sea-ice-falls-to-third-lowest-level-on-record-as-scientists-warn-of-now-problem
• Matt King and Nancy Gertier on tragedy-stopped-mawson-exploring-this-remote-antarctic-region-we-must-get-there-to-study-its-melting-ice
• Ligin Joseph on how-can-the-same-el-nino-cause-drought-in-one-part-of-the-world-and-floods-in-another
• skeptical science on impacts-record-shattering-el-nino , new_research
• renew economy on nuclear-powers-quarter-century-of-stagnation-has-no-end-in-sight-and-has-been-overtaken-by-solar-pv
• open mind on they-know-not-what-they-do

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• as-a-society-we-are-pretty-good-at-transferring-money-to-political-pundits-but-were-not-very-good-at-nurturing-the-human-capital-they-would-need-to-correct-their-own-mistakes
  
• corruption-of-government-facilitated-by-enablers-in-intellectual-society
  
• survey-of-academic-bureaucracy
  
• a-nonlinear-effect-plus-measurement-error-in-x-becomes-close-to-linear-a-simulation-study
  
• ai-chooses-nuclear-option-in-95-of-war-simulations 
  
• survey-statistics-anova-follow-up
  
• prior-distributions-partial-pooling-and-reference-sets-bayesians-are-frequentists
  
• bell-bottom-jeans-disco-gas-shortages-and-esp
  
• when-are-causal-inference-methods-needed-to-answer-causal-questions
  
• nicholas-goddamn-roerich
  
• Tim Harford on random-is-as-random-does
• Kaiser Fung on mirror-images , a-or-b-but-not-both
• freakometrics on governing fairness in insurance pricing

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Lisa Herzog on how-to-run-the-ivory-tower
• Tyler Cowen on shade
• Stoat on book-review-chimpanzee-rights

Vox Wonk

• measuring-what-work-generative-ai-does-survey-evidence-versus-chat-logs 
  
• quantifying-financial-repression-through-lens-portfolio-choice-century-evidence 
  
• smokestack-illusion-who-really-pays-net-zero
  
• cost-not-innovating-frontier-ai-models-cyber-defence-and-eu-strategic-autonomy 
  
• capital-inflows-boost-output-even-after-accounting-expectations 
  
• geopolitical-risk-reshaping-global-finance-one-bank-loan-time 
  
• lifting-curtain-eus-debt 
  
• better-work-not-always-better-workers 
  
• beyond-flows-how-natural-gas-supply-risk-fuels-inflation 
  
• when-wall-street-drifts-main-street-consumption-anchor-stock-prices 
  
• changing-structure-and-challenges-international-financial-system-imbalances
  
• training-novices-think-age-large-language-models 
  
• global-imbalances-and-china-challenge
  
• navigating-geoeconomic-risk-us-stock-market