Sunday, 31 August 2014

Sinclair Davidson is a disgrace

Late last week I was perusing Gerry Jackson's idiosyncratic blog which I always enjoy reading ( whilst disagreeing with him  most of the time) and I was astounded to see someone in the comments say Sinclair Davidson had labelled Gerry's site a hate site.

So I read his comments here and found to my astonishment  Davidson had slurred four people as haters;

  1. Gerry Jackson
  2. M0nty
  3. Steve from Brisbane
  4. Me
( it is highly ironic at the very time he is accusing people of having hate sites people commenting indulged in the said topic!)

What is this poor luvvie on about ? Was he merely goebbelsising again?

He is saying anyone who has the effrontery to criticise him has a hate site.
What a sad demented man he is.

I read all these sites and I have never read any hate directed towards Davidson. Yes they criticise him on issues but so what. Davidson dishes it out but it seems he cannot take it. How thin skinned is that.

For my part I regularly have fun on how Davidson said Swan's last budget ( he had responsibility for) was expansionary  when it was the most contractionary in recorded history
Or there is when Treasury forecast the ETS would add 0.75 percentage points to the CPI and when the CPI was released he said Treasury had under-estimated the impact of the ETS. It had in fact over-estimated its impact. it added 0.25 percentage points. These are but two of Davidson's glorious 'mistakes' ( for which he has never given a correction nor retraction.)

Davidson's psyche can be gauged from an exchange he had on his blog when he questioned why the person wrote there when he disagreed with most people there. Thus only people who engage in group think should write there.

I might be a tad harsh with Davidson as clearly he did not understand what the word predecessor meant.

Thursday, 28 August 2014

Around The Traps 29/8/14

It is time for Around the Traps again.

A special thanks to Club Troppo as there RSS feeds are fantastic.
No football and cricket has yet to start so updating at leisure on the week-end.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Statistics)
 Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 27 August 2014

The Progression of the blog

I thought I might just ramble on about the figures for this blog.

Referring Sites are:
For the week

  1. Dave Giles
  2. Loaded Dogma
  3. Catallaxy
  4. Matt Cowgill
  5. Gerard Jackson
For the month
  1. Dave Giles
  2. Loaded Dogma
  3. Catallaxy
  4. Gerard Jackson
  5. Mark The Graph
  6. Matt Cowgill
For all time
  1. Catallaxy  
  2. Dave Giles
  3. Andrew Gelman
  4. John Quiggin
  5. Loaded Dogma
Most read articles are thus
  1. Around the Traps 25/8/14
  2. Scott Morrison
  3. Some interesting experience I have had
  4. What can we say about Joe Hockey
  5. Who is Kate Beckett, Another look
  1. Around the Traps 1/8/14
  2. Around the Traps 25/8/14
  3. Grateful Dead
  4. Robin Williams
  5. Israel and Palestine

  1. Carly Simon
  2. Around the Traps 3/5/13
  3. Around the Traps 5/4/13
  4. Around the Traps 19/4/13
  5. Around the Traps 31/5/13
There is an increase of  over 10-20 times in page views from the month to all time thus Around the Traps is becoming a research tool for some and that is pleasing.

Actually I wont ramble and simply let it finish there.

Tuesday, 26 August 2014

Some interesting experiences I have had of late on some Sites

I was reading Legal Eagle not long ago and in particular what Lorenzo was saying in defence of Israel . He said it was appalling to accuse it of apartheid. So I asked him why Jewish Israelis got Government services , ID cards being the most important item , from different offices to Arab Israelis. why were there different allowances made for water.
He simply deleted my comments and then stopped me commenting again showing he believes in free Speech as much as Sinclair Davidson does.

Then I was reading Club Troppo where Nick Gruen was asking for help. I told him I felt his pan as I could not comment at his site using Not Trampis.
That dictator ( say this in gest as Nick is probably the nicest bloke in the Blogosphere) promptly deleted my comment. I still cannot comment at Club Troppo and you contact anyone to tell them of the problem!!!!

Then Jim rose put up some blow in who claimed Australia had excessive spending. I replied this was simply ideology as for example neither interest rates nor inflation was rising. where was the evidence for this claim of excessive spending. He has yet to reply and I do not expect him to do so. Evidence to back up half baked assertions is not his forte.

Meanwhile I will prepare for cricket season!!

Sunday, 24 August 2014

Scott Morrison is a disgrace

Scott Morrison fronted the Human Rights Commission into what is occurring to Children who are refugees in the detention centres they are forced to live in.
 He apparently didn't like the detention centres being likened to prisons.
He wanted to know how the Christmas Island detention centre is like the Malabar prison.
Well for a start I have yet to read anywhere that a person asserting detention centres are like prisons are saying they are similar to maximum security centres.
Prisons go from Maximum security complexes to minimum security to prison farms to weekend detention centres.
Either Morrison knows this and is deliberately avoiding answering the question or he has no idea. It doesn't matter. He has no moral compass. The lack of freedom for children was the major reason why children were incurring the psychological problems they have.

And we should NEVER forget it was the ALP who started these refugee prisons!

Thursday, 21 August 2014

Around the Traps 22/8/14

It is time for Around the Traps.
No cricket for three weeks so plenty of time to update on the weekend.

Northern America


Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Tuesday, 19 August 2014

What can we say about Joe Hockey

Joe Hockey has had a pretty poor week indeed fortnight.
John Quiggin was early on his case. Greg Jericho was there as well. Ross Gittins is around there too.

Andrew Elder also bought in. Mumble thought Joe needed a break. He remembered Paul Keating and Peter Costello very early as treasurers and how unimpressive they were.( Indeed there were calls to remove Keating as he was thought a 'captive' of Treasury!!)

I tend to think Mumble has a point BUT Keating had less time as shadow treasurer to prepare for Government and he had the worst Treasury Secretary to help him in John Stone.

I have said previously Hockey has good staff so I do not know how Hockey mixed up absolute and relative revenue of income earners.He appears not to understand what is a progressive and a regressive tax is!

He also needs a plan B as plan A plainly has failed.
It doesn't matter how many times you say Labor's deficit and debt disaster if it hasn't resonated with the public you need to move on. You also cannot argue the budget was fair when all the evidence points to it be quite unfair.

It seems the Present government is as bad as the Government they replaced at basic politics.

Monday, 18 August 2014

Wayne Swan

Wayne Swan should go down as one of the better performing treasurers we have had.

Faced with a looming GFC he eventually listened to both Glenn  Stevens and Ken Henry and brought down two stimulus measures that helped Australia avoid recession ( although nominal GDP did fall ).

He did not try to engage in reckless fiscal consolidation until the last budget he had total responsibility for. In this budget he cut NOMINAL spending and detracted 0.7 percentage points from GDP. This is easily the tightest budget we have ever seen or have figures for. Unfortunately it weakened the economy!

The stimulus measures were entirely appropriate. If they were too large we would have seen rising interest rates and inflation with wages on the increase as well. We saw nothing along these lines.

If monetary policy was the reason for Australia recovered then people must explain how the lag was so short back then and so long now.
Some people such as Tony Makin said we could have relied on net exports for our recovery however net exports were only positive because the negative contribution from exports was lower than that for imports!

For those people who suggest we needed no stimulus measures then they might try to explain why every country that adopted austerity measures had a depression ( a 10% drop in GDP).

We should also realise those critics of 'excessive spending' said the same thing about Ireland and Europe but we only saw those economies go backwards not forward so those critics cannot read GDP figures!

Where people go badly on Swan is conflating his performance as treasurer and his performance as a politician. If people thought interest rates were lower under the Liberals under John Howard than under Labor then it can only because he failed to explain this properly. If people thought Labor had excessive spending then again it goes back to Swan. I agree with Mumble in that Swan never portrayed any confidence at all as Treasurer. I never understood this and perhaps it can only be explained by Swan paying far too much attention to focus group research.

However in the final run a Treasurer is a politician as well as policy induced Treasurer and in this respect he was poor.
Indeed he brought down a very severe contractionary budget in the expectation the lower interest rates which would occur would bring the ALP political plaudits.This didn't happen and again as Treasurer he must take the blame. Here he forgot we all live in the nominal economy not the real economy. Skeptikoi shows this.

Wayne Swan is truly a mixed character.

Saturday, 16 August 2014

Tom Petty

Here is tom Petty doing learning to fly. Just a pity there is no electric in it.

Thursday, 14 August 2014

Around the Traps 15/8/14

It is time again for Around the Traps.
It is Grand final week in football so I will try and update on Sunday.
A great new E-bool on Secular Stagnation in Vox Wonk

Northern America
  • Milken Institute on Abenomics  Thanks Mark



Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 13 August 2014

There is a wages break out!

Yesterday the ABS released the Wage Price Index. The annual rise is 2.6%. This is the lowest rise since the series started!

We have a wages break out. Stagflation is looming. the NAIRU has risen.Industrial disputes are going through the roof!

What you say that is all incorrect! Wages are behaving as they would in a deregulated economy. Unbelievable. Why would people argue otherwise? Why indeed?

They are either liars or mad or both!

Tuesday, 12 August 2014

Robin Williams was a coward

Robin Williams committed suicide yesterday.
He had a wife and three children. He had close friends.
When he committed suicide he thought nothing of them only himself.

Until they die all their days will be filled with grief as they remember William's suicide. some might even have guilty feelings that they did not do enough to stop him.
They will all miss him some very badly.

If only he thought of this before his very selfish act!

Monday, 11 August 2014

The Government's blues again

We have examined the reasons behind why the government had no honeymoon in the polls and why it polling do bad previously.

Rather than going over the same old issues I though I might try another way of examining the topic.

When you are in Opposition you shouldn't just criticise the government and their policies and think through what you might do when you are in Government.

The Present government quite obviously did not do this at all.
They put all their  eggs in the deficit and debt crisis and the cupboard was bare arguments. They believed after the public swallowed this then they would not need to do many of the things they said they would do given that economic circumstances had 'changed!

They got it badly wrong on number of counts.
Firstly the Charter of Budget honesty introduced by Peter Costello makes the cupboard is bare nonsensical. Treasury and Finance put out PEFO during the election campaign. Thus we can see if the cupboard is bare or not. It was NOT!

Secondly after saying they would not break promises like the previous government they then did.
They then brought down a budget which was manifestly unfair.
Neither the PM nor the Treasurer had a great understanding of the detail of the budget.
Moreover the present government is as bad at politics as the Government they replaced.

Add all this to what we have written about before then if world growth does not pick up between now and the next election then the Present Government could well become a one term Government.

Thursday, 7 August 2014

Around the Traps 8/8/14

It is time again for Around the Traps.
It should be updated on Sunday.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 6 August 2014

Israel and Palestine

Here are a few things about the current situation in no order of importance.

  • Hamas pose little threat to Israel. Their rockets ar primitive-and-inaccurate. Israel is more than capable of coping with them.
  • This is one of the very few places on the planet where terrorists kill a lot less people then a country's army.
  • Hamas political wing has little influence whereas their military wing has almost total influence. This can be directly related to Israel's policy of denying Hamas any role in Government.
  • History shows Terrorists are quite capable of changing and becoming politicians. We have seen this in Northern Ireland but also Israel itself. If you asked anybody in Israel in 1948 or even outside it that Begin or Shamir would become Prime Minister of Israel they would have laughed in your face. 
  • The Terrorists of 1948 namely the Stern gang ,Irigun etc put Hamas in the shade in terms of murdering people. They caused whole villages to be devoid of people because they were afraid of being massacred. 
  • Israel's strategy is flawed.
  • They could use another Strategy.
  • Both this 'war' and the one with Hizbullah has exposed the military skills of the IDF. In a number of incidents the IDF have been shown up. They no longer have that 'stamp of invincibility' about them.

Tuesday, 5 August 2014

The Racial discrimination laws

I have three basic points about the government backing down on their proposed laws.

1) If Andrew Bolt had a work ethic and found some evidence he would not have been found guilty. As it is his lawyers agreed his 'research' amounted to nought.
2) The Plaintiffs deliberately did not use the libel laws although they would have won handsomely and got quite a bit of cash as well. In other words it is was the principle they were after. It is ironic Bolt has none!
3) The Loudest supporters of free speech do not practice it e.g. Catallaxy

Monday, 4 August 2014

The Great War

Given it is the 100th anniversary of the start of the Great War a lot of people will write on this subject.

What I have always found interesting is that the leaders of the allied forces learnt nothing from the US Civil war, the Boer war or the Franco-German war. They instead looked to 'wars' that had occurred in their colonies.
A lot of Generals both had a history with the Calvary and still had an affinity for it.
Remarkably It was our own John Monash who came up with original tactics to use. He was never really liked after all He was an engineer not a professional soldier , He was Australian and worst of all he was a Jew ( with a mistress in London!).
At the end of the war The treaty of Versailles ensured a bitter German population given no battles were ever had on Germany.
One interesting development was how the war  ensured the major social issues of the day in all nations was papered over.
Here is a nice piece by John Quiggin.

Best book to read on this topic is undoubtedly Dreadnought

Saturday, 2 August 2014

Grateful Dead

What a band. Here they are with Bruce Hornsby doing his song Valley Road after a jam!