A tale of two wars

 I am going to repeat myself but I think it is worth it.

Ukraine/Russia

Putin invaded Ukraine based on false information. Being a dictator he was told what people thought he wanted to hear. This meant the 'three day 'war was always going to be a failure. Putin also dallied into military decision making which ended in failure because he only has experience in intelligence not the military. He thought using the vast population of russia ( and other countries) would allow victory. Like everyone else he did not foresee Ukraine mastery of drones ( and continued innovation) and learning from its mistakes and continuing to use new and better tactics. Consequently Ukraine is regaining ground and the russians are running out of ammunition, supplies and food particularly in crimea. People are moving away in doves. Putin moves more defensive assets there and Ukraine attack in the holes left.Meanwhile Ukraine successfully attack oil refineries etc that reduces its income.

Russia appears to be in a position of not being able to win anymore BUT Putin battles on in the hope he still can.

USA/Iran

Yet again the USA has been foiled by a nation in a asymmetric war. trump thought this would be a cakewalk after capturing Madura. Although warned of problems they were never said in full voice because like Putin people say to him what they believe he wants to hear. The only way for trump to get the results he spoke of is by boots on the ground BUT that will never happen if only because of the political consequences.

When an ending comes it won't be good for trump.There is the irony. He di this to get a political boost and instead got the opposite!

some TV shows and a film

 First TV

Shetland

This was an excellent show. A police dram set in Shetland. funny how winter never appeared though however once Jimmy left it lost its main character and it simply aint the same. the female replacement is not likable and you end up yearning to see Jimmy again.

Elsbeth

This started out as a quirky crime series with an equally quirky character but it has withered into boring. One problem is she aint attractive but she ends up with not one but two chick magnets over the series. This was simply not believable.

Matlock

This started out well and I like Kathy Bates but I simply have not watched the second series as I am not interested.

now Films

Hostiles

This is a western but a different western. The main character  played brilliantly by Christian Bales has his values changed. Beware it is violent but well worth a view. It is nine years old as a film.

A couple of things Australian

 Socceroos

I was not surprised by the squad poppa picked but for the life of me ho is Okan a better player than Robertson. Injuries have hit us hard. unlike france our replacements are not as good. Boyle clearly has lost pace but then so has Mabil. I do have a few other players who should not be there such as Geria but they are. nevermind.

Against a Mexico not at full strength we let in a goal that should have been headed out and then proceeded to miss out on chanced created. We cannot do that in the world cup AND how is it we are easily in the hardest group of an enlarged world cup!

One Nation

they continue to surge. I wonder if any scrutiny will occur on their 'policies'. It doesn't appear so. Imagine if Albo had have employed an unrepentant convicted rapist . The media would have gone ape. When Hansson does it it is ho hum.

Housing Prices

they are falling which is a good thing on affordability grounds. however surely it is interest rates responsible for this. As the economy slows this will be exacerbated which again is a good thing.

The only other way to increase affordability is for wages to increase and you would need a wage explosion to do it and of course that would lead to increased interest rates. Oops

Violent Femmes

 not a big fan but I did like this

Around the Traps 29/5/26

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mathew Bowes on rising-rents-and-death-taxes-why-wild-claims-after-the-budget-dont-actually-make-sense 
• Natalie Peng on this-little-known-scheme-can-help-first-home-buyers-save-thousands-more-for-a-deposit-with-less-tax 
• Mark the Graph on australias-productivity-slump , gdp-nowcast-update
• Kevin Bonham on begging-for-debunking-silly-article-re-stafford-preferences
• Dominic Ahiago-Dagbui on to-avoid-future-road-rail-and-renewable-blowouts-costing-billions-australia-needs-these-3-big-fixes 
• Adrian Esterman on why-diphtheria-whooping-cough-and-measles-have-come-back-in-australia 
• Dennis Muller on one-nations-banning-of-the-abc-and-abuse-of-journalists-is-shameful-its-time-other-media-took-a-stand 
• Michelle Grattan on controversy-ridden-nacc-chief-paul-brereton-quits-two-years-short-of-his-terms-end 
• Peter McDonald on australia-has-a-problem-with-migration-the-liberals-policy-approach-will-do-nothing-to-fix-it
• Lisa Singh and Toshar Joshi on canberra-should-keep-close-watch-colombo-security-conclave
• Paul Chamberlain on shipbuilding-statecraft-real-test-australia-s-mogami-deal 
• Greg Jericho on australia-budget-reactions-ndis-changes-disabilities-biggest-cuts-dental-ignored
• Gabrielle Appleby and William Partlett on we-need-a-new-anti-corruption-commissioner-heres-how-to-pick-the-right-one
• Luci Ittimani and Josh Butler on most-young-australians-better-off-under-labor-reforms-cgt-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-treasury-modelling
• Jeff Sparrow on how-to-sell-a-genocide-exposes-the-double-standards-of-reporting-on-gaza

OZ Climate

• Christian Jacob et al on csiro-is-cutting-climate-science-jobs-this-is-whats-at-stake-for-australia 
• Adam Morton on bhp-climate-promises-slash-emissions-global-solutions
• Tony Wood on why-are-retail-power-prices-finally-falling 
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on for-44-years-australia-has-subsidised-diesel-use-is-it-time-to-stop
• australias-biggest-wind-project-and-8-battery-hybrids-among-19-winners-of-largest-renewable-auction-to-date
  
• fortescue-starts-construction-of-australias-biggest-solar-farm-outside-main-grid-and-giant-eight-hour-battery
  
• australia-rockets-to-third-largest-big-battery-market-in-world-as-solar-and-wind-hit-decade-low 
  
• electricity-bills-to-fall-even-further-than-predicted-in-state-as-renewables-share-nears-50-pct 
  
• bowen-looks-to-data-centres-to-get-struggling-wind-projects-over-the-line-as-new-report-warns-of-energy-vampires 
  
• up-is-not-down-bhp-in-spotlight-as-epic-decarbonisation-walk-back-revealed 
  
• how-a-wind-and-battery-hybrid-could-replace-a-coal-plant-and-outperform-it-at-almost-every-level
  
• we-need-to-reframe-the-grid-discussion-from-system-strength-to-system-behaviour
  
• 1-million-cheaper-how-avoiding-landfill-slashed-the-cost-of-decommissioning-this-wind-farm
  
• no-sense-one-year-on-queenslands-strict-new-renewables-rules-still-baffle-developers-and-councils
  
• byo-energy-for-data-centres-it-should-be-more-like-byonce-and-make-it-additional

Northern America

• noahpinion on america-is-heading-for-a-debtpocalypse , are-you-tired-of-the-trump-era-yet
• Kruggers on curing-us-healthcare-part-iii-the-future, the-dumpster-fire-of-the-vanities ,texass-senate-race-will-be-a-referendum-on-healthcare , unlocked-repost-curing-us-health-part2 , whos-deranged-exactly
• John Cassidy on can-anything-stop-trumps-corruption
• James Horncastle on trumps-largely-negotiated-truce-with-iran-exposes-a-deeper-crisis-in-u-s-strategic-thinking
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-civil-service-thomas-barrett-margolin-mspb , supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-race-jury-pitchford-cain
• Aziz Huq on trump-immunity-news-todd-blanche-not-genius
• Tom Nicholls on american-ambassadors-trump-vacancies 
• dead for tax reasons on thirty-seven-words-that-could-break-this-country-a-brexit-remainers-letter-home
• the conversable economist on how-medicare-and-medicaid-rely-on-private-health-insurance
• Hayes Brown on doj-grand-jury-charges-misconduct
• Richard Nimijean on why-mark-carney-is-pushing-fortress-north-america-amid-deep-canadian-distrust-of-the-u-s
• David Cole on trump-v-trump-anti-weaponization-fund
• Liz Dye on broadview-6-case-misconduct
• Zack Beauchamp on e-jean-carroll-investigation-doj-trump-authoritarian
• Aaron Blake on e-jean-carroll-trump-retribution 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-drezner-the-trump-administrations-incredibly-slow-learning-curve
• Lisa Rubin on if-doj-is-investigating-e-jean-carroll-the-facts-could-stand-in-its-way 

Europe

• Mark Thomas et al on defensive constitutional reform Thanks Nick
• exponential view on ukraine-seven-day-drone-advantage Thanks Nick
• silicon continent on european-stagnation-is-real Thanks Nick
• Adam Simpson on the-far-right-is-surging-in-france-germany-and-parts-of-europe-what-will-this-mean-for-ukraine 
• Phillips O'Brien on putin-lost-control-russia 
• mainly macro on new-ideas-from-labour-on-economic-policy

Asia

• Isel Van Zhyl on china-s-influence-africa-no-longer-just-economic
• Premesha Saha on can-quad-keep-momentum-without-leaders-summit 
• Karryl Trajano and Ysa Cayabyab on asean-isn-t-yet-ready-ai-agent-swarm
• Robert Kagan on trump-surrender-iran-endgame 
• Isaac Chotiner on why-any-plausible-iran-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-trump 
• Seong Hyon-Lee on why-xi-jinping-going-pyongyang
• Mark the Graph on update-on-iran-war
• Michelle Burgess-Kasthala on trump-cant-sell-the-abraham-accords-on-a-middle-east-that-has-lost-trust-in-the-us
• Hamideh Mohammadi and Ali Abasi on how-iran-uses-billboards-as-wartime-propaganda-we-selected-5-to-explain-what-they-mean
• Jesslene Lee on rcep-s-moment-matter
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-russia-china

Wonk

• institutional economics on whats-not-to-like-about-rising-bond-yields 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-davies-meet-the-new-economy-just-like-the-old-economy , big-trouble-in-little-human-genetic-difference-worshipper-land , reading-joan-robinson-an-open-letter-from-a-keynesian-to-a-marxist
• notes from the circus on the-capital-is-misaligned-and-the-crash-is-coming Thanks Nick
• Shannon Bosch on taunting-and-degrading-civilians-in-armed-conflict-is-a-clear-violation-of-international-law 
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , inflation-targeting-vs-ngdp-targeting
• Tim Harford on science-in-the-shadow-of-the-third-reich 
• the conversable economist on agricultural-production-functions-without-prices , simone-weil-on-education-and-attention
• Kevin Morrison on 4-reasons-the-largest-energy-crisis-on-record-has-been-held-at-bay-and-why-theres-pain-to-come 
• Nick Haslam on what-is-trauma-the-more-we-talk-about-it-the-more-it-means
• Tyler Cowen on the-corporate-tax-rate-really-matters , a-beautiful-theory-falls-to-ugly-data
• noahpinion on your-future-job-will-be-to-keep-ai-on-task
• Nengye Lui on if-antarctic-treaty-system-started-special-family-what-kind-family-it-today

General

• Colin Caprani and Scott Menegon on how-the-great-pyramid-of-giza-has-survived-4-500-years-of-egyptian-earthquakes
• Dennis Altman on errol-flynns-biographer-calls-him-the-greatest-heartthrob-of-his-time-but-racist-and-a-rapist-too
• Richard Brady on the-revolutionary-force-of-sonny-rollins
• Richard Worth on miles-daviss-kind-of-blue-is-the-highest-selling-jazz-record-of-all-time-he-thought-it-was-a-failure

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on rcp8-5-update
• Kevin Trenberth on the-network-watching-the-worlds-oceans-is-under-pressure-just-when-its-needed-most 
• Bryan Walsh on climate-change-coal-solar-renewable-power 
• ocean acidification on carbon-allocation-strategy-of-thalassiosira-weissflogii-in-response-to-elevated-pco2 , a-review-of-volcanic-activity-and-the-evolution-of-coral-reefs
• skeptical science on rcp-85-update , death-of-rcp85 , new_research
• Andrew King on scientists-have-scrapped-the-worst-case-climate-scenario-because-action-is-making-a-difference 
• Jonathan Mingle on our-climates-wild-card-into-the-clear-blue-sky

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• differences-between-crackdowns-on-dissent-now-and-in-the-early-cold-war-period 
  
• the-humans-are-imperfect-reporters-too-defense-for-ascribing-little-thoughts-to-machines 
  
• physics-fraud-compared-to-fraud-and-junk-science-in-the-social-and-behavioral-sciences 
  
• how-much-skill-is-in-skill-games-there-cant-be-much 
  
• survey-statistics-double-plus-robustness
  
• no-bayes-does-not-like-mayor-pete-pitfalls-of-using-implied-betting-market-odds-to-estimate-electability
  
• statistical-analysis-recapitulates-the-development-of-statistical-methods
  
• what-if-scientists-really-were-dispassionate-observers-communicating-ideas-without-irrational-commitment-look-here-says-ai
  
• what-if-scientists-really-were-dispassionate-observers-communicating-ideas-without-irrational-commitment-look-here-says-ai
  
• the conversable economist on agricultural-production-functions-without-prices
• Kaiser Fung on with-editing-power-comes-responsibility , the-beef-on-beef
• freakometrics on surveys without respondents 
• statschat on dirty-comparisons

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• may-reading-roundup
  
• the defensive symphony on and-i-will-undertake-all-these-to-teach Thanks Nick
• stoat on book-review-allegory-of-love
• Greg Mankiw on what-ive-been-reading
• Joel Eissenberg on mr-jeffersons-lost-cause-a-book-review
• Andrew Gelman on the-ten-year-affair 
• Tyler Cowen on how-to-win-a-trade-war-an-optimistic-guide-to-an-anxious-global-economy , what-ive-been-reading , how-to-win-a-trade-war-an-optimistic-guide-to-an-anxious-global-economy

Vox Wonk

• emotional-content-influences-opinions-more-facts-evidence-large-scale-experiment 
  
• openness-vulnerability-mapping-eus-foreign-dependencies-and-geopolitical-exposure 
  
• financial-stability-age-artificial-intelligence-role-algorithmic-architecture 
  
• more-resilient-europe-faces-renewed-energy-shock-difficult-trade-offs-may-resurface 
  
• corporate-net-zero-targets-neither-greenwashing-nor-gamechanger
  
• industrial-policy-tariffs-and-return-global-imbalances 
  
• inefficient-pricing-news 
  
• word-not-enough-testing-effects-information-treatments-perceived-corruption-ukraine 
  
• global-trade-linkages-and-cross-country-distribution-gains-ai
  

Gerard Henderson update

 Our mate Gerry is up to more news.

He does not like people referring to Trump as authoritarian because he was elected. Hmm Germany between the wars or hungary under Orban anyone.

He still hates people being interviewed on the ABC being interrupted despite them either not answering the question or answering another question. Even when they interrupt albo it shows bias. It is different you know!

We got to know one nation's rise in the polls was due to the bondi massacre. Naturally no evidence was produced.

He did not like Sarah Ferguson having a go at Tim Wilson for looking at his notes. Now our Gerry was chief of staff to john howard so he knows looking at notes is the sign of a poorly prepared politician. ( howard was famous for having no notes at an interview!) so he clearly knows better.

He does not see a problem in one nation banning the ABC from news conferences.

He does like people at the ABC and is forever saying they are sneering or condescending. This from a man who calls any ABC journalist comrade! glasshouses anyone!

We should also add our Gerry has no problem in banning holocaust deniers  ( like David Irving) from visiting Australia but is silent on those who deny the armenian genocide.

Whoopsy I should ad two more bewdys.

He didn't like some of the women coming here from Syria. He claimed they were members of ISIS. Actually they are alleged members  since it has not been proven in court Gerry and sine you have a law degree you know that as well.

He also thinks people are either left wing or right wing. None of this on the scentre got our Gerry and of course he defines them often 'ahem' controversially!

Ukraine

One interesting development in this war is how Ukraine has completely tied up crimea. Ukraine drones have made roadkill of trucks transporting ammunition, oil, food etc on the M14. All the ferries are unusable and the Kerch bridge is standing but no truck can drive over it because of the damage. It is interesting Ukraine has not destroyed the bridge because they can.

Ukraine has destroyed most of the radar system in  crimea. This means it is much easier to destroy airfields, planes, tanks etc in crimea as well as allowing ukraine to have drone sorties into russia through this area.

Russia has a strong heartfelt feeling towards crimea. This is why they have not given up any territory there. They are transferring valuable resources to crimea from other areas which ukraine note and then attacks.

In normal times russia would sue for peace to keep crimea and well before people start getting out of there. Like Trump with Iran, Putin will not be able to explain such a peace deal and he cannot afford to have people from crimea fleeing the place.

I suspect without any expertise that Putin has to continue the war in the hope he will eventually win. He will not get accurate information only information his subordinates thinks he wants to hear. This is the problem a dictator has. Putin's background is in intelligence not the military hence his numerable mistakes in the war.

How will it all end? I suspect Putin will be replaced at some time. Perhaps his successor will bring tol ight how much he has stolen from his people. How does a former KGB officer end up a billionaire with multiple country estates?

We shall see