Why the mid-terms will go blue

 The mid-terms are almost guaranteed in my view. People like to vote against the incumbent in the white house and trump is the most unpopular president in memory.

Let us assume no further hostilities arise between the USA and Iran. This means petrol prices will eventually fall but slowly but remember some of the costs are already embedded in the system. Trump has wrong views about tariffs and they raise  the cost of products but Trump will want to raise more.  Inflation will still be at a worrying level come november. It is unlikely the Fed will be hawkish

His cabinet is made up of incompetents so we can expect more poor decisions being made. 

In essence it is getting too late to change even if someone wanted to. 

The other thing is the US voter gives Trump too much power and then votes in the mid terms to put some hand brakes on.

Trump himself is getting worse. Whether it is going to sleep when cameras are on ( and then foolishly denying it) or simply giving more evidence he is cognitively challenged.  Watch this as Trump just cannot handle this psychologically.

I might just add gerrymandering does not help a lot. Evidence from our country holds malapportionment will win government for parties who do not win the vote but gerrymandering rarely does.   If a big swing is on those 'safe' seats are no longer 'safe'.

So a big swing should  occur in november.

Starmer gawn

 Keir Starmer has resigned. I do not pretend to understand politics in the UK. I wrote previously that Starmer although seen as a decent man di not pick staff well and was quite indecisive by nature. This led people to wonder what the Labour party was doing. Starmer was also poor at speeches so when he hit tradewinds he had little to help him.

The massive win for Burnham in Manchester simply made it evitable he would become PM. Unlike Starmer he is an excellent communicator so we shall see. I shall certainly be listening to the redoubtable Ian Dunt tonight on late night live.

Poppa got it badly wrong

 Perhaps the Turkey game went to his head but Poppa's changes to australia against the USA made no sense.   He dropped our two goal scorers and perhaps our two best players on the field and their replacements made no sense. One should not even be there and the other is too old.

changes were needed because we knew the USA would come at us. I would have brought in Herrington at the back as he has the pace and Irvine in the midfield as he has the experience.

I would have thought after all the trash talk our blokes would have come out fighting but they were lethargic.

Against Paraguay I would have Herrington at the back and would have Volpato ( he was a revelation when he came on), Toure and Irankanda to score goals.

We can win and should play to win.

Around the Traps 19/6/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Sam McLure on hard-to-think-of-a-more-wasteful-project-economist-slams-bloody-minded-afl-over-stadium Thanks Nick
• Robert Breunig and Peter Varela on how-simple-changes-to-australias-skilled-migration-program-could-add-billions-a-year-to-the-economy
• Mick Ryan on russia-s-slow-defeat-and-australia-s-hard-lesson
• Stella Huangfu on the-rba-holds-interest-rates-steady-but-warns-another-hike-is-possible-if-inflation-stays-high
• Fadi Maayah on after-a-coaching-masterclass-against-turkey-can-the-socceroos-shock-the-us-and-paraguay
• Mark the Graph on a-cruel-irony-in-housing-target
• Antony Green on the-financial-reviews-inaccurate-preference-analysis
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update , betting-market-update
• Adrian Beaumont on latest-polls-still-have-one-nation-leading-on-primary-votes-but-not-gaining

OZ Climate

• Adam Morton on climate-denial-in-vogue-pauline-hanson-australia-cop31
• Kimberly Reid on the-weather-bureau-has-just-declared-an-el-nino-what-could-this-mean-for-australia
• new-records-for-wind-and-battery-output-in-last-month-of-autumn-taking-big-bite-out-of-coal-and-gas
  
• plans-for-australias-biggest-wind-farm-scaled-back-with-solar-and-big-battery-added-to-create-huge-hybrid
  
• plans-to-resurrect-2km-buffer-zone-will-make-new-renewable-projects-unviable-cec-warns
  
• chart-of-the-day-farewell-king-coal-long-live-king-solar-and-wind-and-batteries
  
• data-centres-could-unblock-renewables-bottlenecks-if-they-dont-hit-barriers-of-their-own
  
• too-complex-too-hard-too-often-unfair-plan-to-reform-electricity-pricing-backs-contentious-tariff-changes
  
• frequency-penalties-are-costing-some-solar-farms-millions-but-this-is-the-market-working
  
• auditor-general-slams-management-of-snowy-2-0-as-more-delays-loom-and-project-costs-blow-out
  
• councils-call-for-national-climate-compensation-fund-and-they-want-the-polluters-to-pay
  
• delaying-clean-energy-is-what-really-makes-power-bills-soar
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on nowhere-to-hide
• Brad De Long on the-health-gap-between-conservative-and-liberal-america-can-be-seen-in-the-mortality-data , bonds-and-equities-have-not-recently-hedged-each-other
• Kruggers on meet-the-new-bosses-worse-than-the-old-bosses , the-theory-of-the-vulgar-class, unlocked-repost-curing-us-healthcare-part111: the-future , donald-trump-champion-of-renewable-energy
• Christian Paz on southern-baptist-convention-right-wing-drift-religious-influencers-content-creator-populist-christianity-catholic-protestant
• Ruth Marcus on why-todd-blanche-should-not-be-attorney-general
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-defeat-iran-war
• noahpinion  on iran-is-trumps-katrina
• the conversable economist on dairy-supply-and-demand-stories
• Tom Nicholls on trump-g7-comments-misunderstsand-middle-east

Europe

• Felix Martin on how-eu-can-respond-second-china-shock Thanks Nick 
• Paul Reilly on belfast-unrest-shows-the-power-of-social-media-as-far-right-views-on-immigration-enter-the-mainstream
• noahpinion on degrowth-would-make-europeans-into-europoor
• Lisa Given on australia-has-already-banned-social-media-for-under-16s-heres-what-the-uk-can-learn-from-the-experience
• Mark Edele on putin-wanted-to-make-russia-great-again-instead-ukraine-is-the-new-rising-power-in-europe
• Anastaysia Byesyedina on russias-strike-on-centuries-old-ukrainian-monastery-complex-reveals-its-growing-desperation
• Khalid Khoser on voters-weigh-the-real-cost-of-less-migration
• Iryna Skubii on the-world-has-stopped-seeing-ukraine
• mainly macro on the-consequences-of-tolerating-far-right

Asia

• Jessica Genauer on are-the-us-and-iran-back-at-war-or-negotiating-why-bombing-your-way-to-peace-wont-work , whats-in-the-us-iran-peace-deal-a-lot-of-concessions-and-empty-promises-from-trump-in-return-for-little
• Shruti Pandalai on beijing-s-ban-on-nz-mps-is-a-calibration-test-will-democracies-pass-it
• Amin Saikal on a-peace-deal-may-bring-an-end-to-the-iran-war-but-what-did-the-us-and-israel-truly-achieve
• Joshua Keating on iran-ceasefire-trump
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-deal-war-news-hormuz , trump-iran-deal-war-news-hormuz-mou
• Tom Nicholls on trump-iran-deal
• noahpinion on will-china-inc-be-zombified
• Francis Fukuyama on the-art-of-the-non-deal Thanks Brad
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-boasts-about-the-art-of-the-deal-he-knows-nothing-about-the-art-of-war
• Kevin Morrison on us-iran-deal-should-see-oil-and-lng-begin-to-flow-again-slowly
• Shadi Rouhshahbaz on the-iran-peace-deal-must-demand-the-release-of-narges-mohammadi-and-other-prisoners-of-conscience
• Andrew Arsan on unmaking-the-middle-east-what-really-went-wrong
• Jing Je on china-is-turning-the-waters-east-of-taiwan-grey
• home and away on defeat
• Graham Wood on iran-trump-war-defeat-deal
• Ishaan Tharoor on the-spectacular-failure-and-ruinous-costs-of-the-iran-war

Wonk

• Heidi Blake on andrew-tates-empire-of-abuse Thanks Nick
• global inequality on defeated-by-the-real-world  Thanks Nick
• Michael Pettis on how-are-global-imbalances-transmitted  Thanks Nick 
• David Pinsof et al on strange bedfellows Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on homo-experiens-the-biology-of-decision-making-and-behavioral-economics
• Tyler Cowen on sometimes-it-is-hard-to-solve-for-the-equilibrium
• Kruggers on technology-and-social-change , power-and-geopolitics-after-trump
• Brad De Long on ask-not-for-whom-the-schumpeterian-creative-destruction-bells-tolls-this-time
• Holly Seale et al on ebola-hantavirus-diphtheria-how-distrust-in-health-care-is-fuelling-multiple-outbreaks-across-the-globe
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , mmt-in-three-layers

General

• Johann Fourie on a-football-is-not-enough thanks tyler
• Carol Oliver on aliens-might-exist-but-there-are-three-reasons-why-theyre-not-visiting-us
• Charlie Huveneers on do-shark-culls-keep-people-safe-in-the-ocean-heres-what-the-science-says

Climate

• David Appell on warming-up-to-2025-137c
• skeptical science on plateauing-co2-slowed-growth , new_research
• ocean acidification on sea-to-shining-sea-noaa-launches-dual-coastwide-ocean-acidification-research-missions
• Fionagh Thomson on one-of-the-worlds-most-important-climate-threats-has-an-image-problem
• Kripa Anand and Anuttama Banerji on climate-change-is-coming-for-asia-s-cities-delhi-s-heat-is-just-a-taste

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• to-what-extent-is-it-true-that-all-intelligence-human-or-artificial-must-extract-structure-from-correlational-data
  
• are-prediction-markets-causing-more-harm-than-good 
  
• capitalism-on-its-last-legs-or-healthy-enough-to-be-milked
  
• the-new-york-knicks-and-the-martingale-property-of-calibrated-probability-forecasts
  
• survey-statistics-using-mrp-in-later-analyses-pride-edition
  
• https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/18/llm-case-study-galilelo-inclined-plane/
  
• Tim Harford on data-you-dont-know-what-youve-got-till-its-gone
• Kaiser Fung on confirmation-bias-on-display , the-greatest-nations-on-earth

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on reading-gunnar-myrdal-challenge-to-affluence
• Andrew Gelman on elmore-leonard

Vox Wonk

• unequal-burden-oil-shocks-labour-markets-and-monetary-policy 
  
• regulation-and-growth-reloaded-lessons-25-years-retail-trade-and-professional 
  
• not-all-reserves-are-born-equal-why-source-matters-sovereign-risk
  
• reciprocal-sovereignty-third-constitutional-tradition-europe
  
• taking-the-pulse-of-global-trade-policy
  
• fiscal-rules-compliance-and-sovereign-borrowing-costs-some-evidence-euro-area
  
• design-and-effect-tariff-retaliation-evidence-eu
  
• impact-trade-wars-firms-third-countries
  
• trade-restrictions-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-fdi-flows 
  
• prevention-birth-birthright-citizenship-reduces-youth-crime
  

Pauline Hanson did not impress

 Pauline Hanson delivered a very long address at the national press club. She then avoided most of the questions asked and showed a clear glass jaw.

Just a few examples.

She believes employees have too much power and are lazy. holy Theory Y Theory Z batman. Douglas McGregor wrote the book in 1957. the theory is almost as old as I am!!  I can see ALP stalwarts making an ad of this remark.

She believes net zero is a myth and renewables is the reason power costs have risen. She wants to stop all renewables and build coal and a nuclear power station.  Wow a lot of ignorance there. lots of ad material her as well.

She did not react well to a question from Sarah Martin who asked about he daughter who is employed by a NSW senator but LIVES in Tasmania. She apparently wants to be a senator there.

In short she thrived on the grievances but has few solutions. She has never had the concentration of the press on her during an election. Next time she will and on this evidence she will not react well.

Just remember given her hostility to immigration ( non-white) she has probably reached her peak in votes. Her aim is to keep those people who have migrated ( pun intended) from the LNP and the ALP.

Her lack of policies, hostility to the press, hostility to workers, hostility to the environment will all hurt her in that aim.

Just remember in 1996 she said asians would take over Australia. About a decade later she changed that to muslims. None of those predictions have come within coo-ee of being right.

home battery

 An update on how our battery is going.

The last bill was around $110 which is very low for a four person household. however it was that high because my wife had the air conditioning on quite a lot.

A battery is very good at telling you indirectly how much various items use electricity. Thus washing machines, dishwashers etc use little but ovens,stoves, mico-waves, air fryers use a lot.

We have only had our battery full on a day once since the ending of daylight saving. This is because my boys had friends over and used a lot of electricity cooking up a treat.

The problem is if you start the day with nothing in the battery then it aint going to get full on the day. The KWs just don't have the same gusto behind them in winter.

Thus we are using electricity during the night when it is off-peak and in the morning when it isn't.

the 'peace'deal

 First a couple of informed comments

• Amin Saikal
• Fred Kaplan
• Tom Nicholls

There were a whole host of reasons given for this illegal war started by the USA. Lets go through them

1. Regime Change. Never occurred never looked like occurring and trump gave up on it very quickly.
2. No Nukes. How Iran could be sooo close to a nuke after the USA 'obliterated' their capacity was never addressed. This issue has been pushed down the road
3. Iran's support of terrorist groups. nothing has occurred on this front either. Indeed Iran has made it clear they want Israel to back off Hizbullah
4. Iran's missiles and drones. No-one but no-one has talked about this!

The only issue Trump has talked about is the freeing up of the strait of homuz. This was free of any trouble before trump started his disastrous war.