There should be NO march today

 I have said previously some supporters of palestine possess no political understanding. Today I am repeating myself.

I support the creation of Israel as the UN did way back in 1947.

However on October 7 an unspeakable evil was affected  on Israeli people a lot who were sympathetic to the palestinian cause. The day should be left alone.

You can protect any day but this one about the creation of Palestine and the genocide imposed on palestinian people by the government of Israel but leave October 7 silent.

It does not help your cause demonstrating today indeed it may lead people to oppose your cause.

Demonstrating today is simply trumpian. Do not do it!

the coalition on immigration

 We are told in breat-taking fashion the coalition is releasing their policy on immigration today.

I have written about immigration before. I would not be surprised if we hear generalities today on HOW they will cut immigration as there are massive problems that occur when you want to massively cut immigration.

Let us assume they will leave backpackers alone to help the agricultural sector. Then this means they will have to cut in large terms

• family reunions (one of which is aussies who marry foreigners), 
• skilled labour for industry
• unskilled labour for retail and such  ( where uni students are important)
• foreign students at tertiary institutions

It will also have large effects on the budget in that it will increase the deficit.

Also very important is the politics. Imagine such a large cut is implemented. There would be a very loud hue and cry from those people and institutions affected.

I very much doubt we we will get any specifics form the Opposition

public holidays

Today in Sydanee ( forgotten the olympics already?) we celebrate a public holiday.

We do have a number

January 1  new years day

January 26  australia day

April 3 easter friday

April 4 day following 

April 5 easter sunday

April 6 easter monday 

April 25 anzac day

April 27 anzac day holiday

June 8 kings birthday

october 5 labour day

december 25 christmas day

Australia became a nation on January 1 not 26! We have had three following public holidays because they were on the weekend. We celebrate a birthday on the wrong day.

We are lucky in Australia as we get 4 weeks recreation leave. We also have a number of public holidays as well.

Surely we should only have public holidays for celebrating significant events.

Let me make some recommendations.

Make January 1 Australia day as that is when we became a nation. I am happy to keep easter but no catch up on a monday ( same with christmas.) Why do we celebrate a bad military defeat? Why not the end of a world war?

I am also happy to keep labour day as it is important in our nation's history.

There should be no catch up on a monday because a significant day occurred on the weekend. It only desecrates the importance of the day!

Around the Traps 2/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Christoph Nedopil on chinas-economy-is-changing-rapidly-its-no-longer-australias-easy-export-market
• Abu Barkat on australias-legacy-systems-were-already-a-cyber-risk-ai-agents-are-raising-the-stakes
• Michelle Grattan on larissa-waters-steps-down-as-greens-leader-due-to-health-reasons
• Stella Huangfu on rba-lifts-rates-to-highest-level-in-15-years-risking-a-sharper-slowdown-of-the-economy
• Mick Ryan on fast-following-edge-australia-defence-needs
• Hangga Fathana on australia-s-migration-dilemma-short-term-pressures-long-term-costs
• Saul Eslake on rba-inflation-blame-game-politicians-reserve-bank-australia
• Isaac Gross on inflation-lifts-to-4-0-in-august-keeping-pressure-on-the-rba-for-another-rate-rise
• Alan Duncan on interest-rates-have-hit-their-highest-level-since-2011-the-pain-will-feel-different-in-2026
• Greg Jericho on turbocharged-petrol-prices-driving-inflation-rba-rates-recession-employment
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on are-australians-really-overtaxed-it-depends-what-you-think-government-should-do
• Millie Muroi on unemployment-probably-does-need-to-climb-for-now

OZ Climate

• some-solar-panels-are-only-2-years-old-when-theyre-discarded-pv-expert-says-retirement-fee-could-fix-this
  
• uncharted-territory-fears-as-weather-whiplash-sparks-tree-die-off-and-dials-up-bushfire-risk
  
• too-much-wind-and-solar-the-state-wide-blackout-and-the-dinner-party-that-changed-the-course-of-history
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-finally-completed-and-acting-as-giant-shock-absorber-to-the-grid
  
• australian-households-installed-record-amount-of-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-in-first-half-of-2026
  
• productivity-has-been-weak-mining-and-construction-are-the-main-culprits-just-look-at-diesel-and-lng
  
• its-been-10-years-since-the-blackout-of-south-australia-could-it-happen-again
  
• the-future-of-farming-is-electric-but-outdated-rules-can-force-us-to-pay-market-rates-for-our-own-solar
  
• the-revolutionary-methane-detection-technology-that-probably-wont-fit-into-our-regulatory-box
  
• its-made-us-more-wasteful-solar-and-battery-homes-plug-in-to-a-new-age-of-abundant-energy
  
• origin-energy-drops-plan-for-massive-wind-project-in-new-england-citing-rising-costs
• still-in-the-dark-snowy-hydros-awkward-anniversary-marked-without-promised-review-of-snowy-2-costings
  
• Michael Vardon on unsustainable-or-manageable-we-dont-yet-know-how-data-centres-will-impact-australias-environment
• Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al on we-can-finally-measure-the-damage-each-new-coal-gas-or-oil-project-will-do-to-people-and-nature
• Phil Brewer on as-el-nino-strengthens-across-the-pacific-australian-farmers-could-face-fierce-frosts
• Liz Hicks on nsws-largest-coal-mine-project-is-set-to-expand-heres-what-authorities-got-wrong-about-the-trade-offs

Northern America

• John Quiggin on us-republicans-are-worse-than-any-far-right-european-party Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on booms-bombs-and-bonds-interest-rates-part1, i-approve-of-trumps-ad, the-beclowning-of-scott-bessent, one-more-reason-americans-hate-ai, a-globalist-comeback
• Elizabeth Bruening on maga-right-christianity-empathy-toxic, a-who-you-gonna-believe-election
• Julian Hill on trump-unable-to-stop-clean-energy-revolution-as-wind-and-solar-output-surges-and-coal-shrinks
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oligarchy-is-a-symptom-not-the-cause
• the conversable economist on i-would-like-the-value-of-my-home-to-rise-while-my-property-taxes-fall
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-missouri-gerrymander-lower-courts-are-crazy
• Shirin Ali on watch-republican-eric-schmitt-jack-smith-perjury-hawks
• noahpinion on stop-spending-money-on-smaller-classes
• Dahlia Lithwick on donald-trump-white-house-press-ban-fail
• Helen Lewis on maga-senate-hearing-eric-schmitt
• home and away on venue
• Jeet Heer on kimberly-guilfoyle-is-a-master-of-mafia-diplomacy, susan-collins-scandal-election
• Brad De Long on us-rooftop-solar-stalled-2026
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-state-of-force-address
• Harry Litman on the-gig-may-be-up-for-trump-and-blanche
• Sarah Fitzpatrick on kash-patel-fbi-trump-midterm-elections

Europe

• James Skinner and Danny Hill on stripped-titles-compensating-rivals-how-the-manchester-city-cheating-scandal-could-play-out
• Maksym Beznosiuk and Thom Reilly on ukraine-war-russia-occupation-construction
• David Galbreath on us-attempts-to-control-ukraines-attacks-on-russia-reflect-a-fundamental-strategic-disconnect
• mainly macro on populist-tendencies-on-uk-left-and-the-puzzle-that-never-was

Asia

• Ann Neuburger on new-chinese-way-of-cyberwar-ai Thanks Nick
• Jaideep Saikia on china-s-gwadar-gamble-isn-t-paying-off
• Vivian Salama on egypt-israel-gaza-hamas-palestinian-october-7
• Afeeya Akhand on south-korea-s-food-waste-model-and-its-limits
• Robin Wright on irans-bitterness-and-bewilderment-over-how-to-make-peace-with-trump
• Peter Beinart on robert-kraft-netanyahu-israel-supporters

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-simon-ehrlich-wager-over-125-years
• programmable mutter on machine-god-metaphors-eat-your-brain Thanks Nick
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-xi-summit-who-is-competing
• noahpinion on wheres-the-intelligence-explosion, roundup-89-it-isnt-x-its-y
• the conversable economist on s-shaped-utility-curves-poverty-and-risk-taking
• Neophytos Georgiou on are-autistic-people-more-vulnerable-to-extremist-content
• Svitlana Chernkyh et al on can-we-predict-genocide-by-listening-to-what-leaders-say-research-finds-common-threads
• Abhijnan Rej on claude-for-clausewitz
• Ved Shinde on speed-over-judgement-is-winning-the-ai-arms-race
• Nicholas Gruen on accountability-from-above-and-below
• Chris Dillow on who-wants-free-markets
• Mark the Graph on the-fragile-equilibrium
• Stephen Leib and Guido Junior on with-a-tragedy-averted-the-flydubai-incident-has-put-cockpit-security-under-new-scrutiny

General

• Brad De Long on an-lushan-industrial-revolution-china-great-divergence
• Luke Steller et al on how-sugar-from-outer-space-became-one-of-the-backbones-of-life-on-earth

Climate

• ocean acidification on thermal-history-and-behavioural-plasticity-shape-reef-fish-tolerance-to-marine-heatwaves, the-future-of-aquatic-food-systems-climate-change-adaptation-and-resilience-strategies-a-narrative-review
• Tina Soliman-Hunter on floating-power-plants-could-offer-coastal-communities-a-reliable-energy-source-heres-how
• Graham Readfearn on antarctic-winter-sea-ice-falls-to-third-lowest-level-on-record-as-scientists-warn-of-now-problem
• Matt King and Nancy Gertier on tragedy-stopped-mawson-exploring-this-remote-antarctic-region-we-must-get-there-to-study-its-melting-ice
• Ligin Joseph on how-can-the-same-el-nino-cause-drought-in-one-part-of-the-world-and-floods-in-another
• skeptical science on impacts-record-shattering-el-nino , new_research
• renew economy on nuclear-powers-quarter-century-of-stagnation-has-no-end-in-sight-and-has-been-overtaken-by-solar-pv
• open mind on they-know-not-what-they-do

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• as-a-society-we-are-pretty-good-at-transferring-money-to-political-pundits-but-were-not-very-good-at-nurturing-the-human-capital-they-would-need-to-correct-their-own-mistakes
  
• corruption-of-government-facilitated-by-enablers-in-intellectual-society
  
• survey-of-academic-bureaucracy
  
• a-nonlinear-effect-plus-measurement-error-in-x-becomes-close-to-linear-a-simulation-study
  
• ai-chooses-nuclear-option-in-95-of-war-simulations 
  
• survey-statistics-anova-follow-up
  
• prior-distributions-partial-pooling-and-reference-sets-bayesians-are-frequentists
  
• bell-bottom-jeans-disco-gas-shortages-and-esp
  
• when-are-causal-inference-methods-needed-to-answer-causal-questions
  
• nicholas-goddamn-roerich
  
• Tim Harford on random-is-as-random-does
• Kaiser Fung on mirror-images , a-or-b-but-not-both
• freakometrics on governing fairness in insurance pricing

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Lisa Herzog on how-to-run-the-ivory-tower
• Tyler Cowen on shade
• Stoat on book-review-chimpanzee-rights

Vox Wonk

• measuring-what-work-generative-ai-does-survey-evidence-versus-chat-logs 
  
• quantifying-financial-repression-through-lens-portfolio-choice-century-evidence 
  
• smokestack-illusion-who-really-pays-net-zero
  
• cost-not-innovating-frontier-ai-models-cyber-defence-and-eu-strategic-autonomy 
  
• capital-inflows-boost-output-even-after-accounting-expectations 
  
• geopolitical-risk-reshaping-global-finance-one-bank-loan-time 
  
• lifting-curtain-eus-debt 
  
• better-work-not-always-better-workers 
  
• beyond-flows-how-natural-gas-supply-risk-fuels-inflation 
  
• when-wall-street-drifts-main-street-consumption-anchor-stock-prices 
  
• changing-structure-and-challenges-international-financial-system-imbalances
  
• training-novices-think-age-large-language-models 
  
• global-imbalances-and-china-challenge
  
• navigating-geoeconomic-risk-us-stock-market
  

fiscal policy here

 Can somebody help me here.

ECON101 tells you Spending and TAXATION are important to fiscal policy. It is allied to the Structural Deficit ( or cyclical adjusted budget deficit). It is the change in the structural deficit that influences economic activity.

Why are people all talking about spending and ignoring taxation. When you do you find both the overall and the structural deficit are less than 1% and falling albeit slowly ( too slowly).

Now compare that to the USA where both are over 5%. Why is not inflation ( and therefore interest rates) going through the roof there?

One reason could be that our speed limit is smaller however it would only explain it a little.

Now I am not saying fiscal policy is right. At worst the budget should be balanced. What I am saying is that it appears everyone appears to have forgotten about taxation. If they did then the spending probleem is plainly exagerated.

The socceroos are improving but there is still work to be done

 Australia played Brazil in two friendlies and overall we went pretty well.

The first match was played on a very poor pitch at Townsville and we should have won. The second was played on a good pitch in Brisbane.

What did we learn?

Beach is a very good keeper in the australian tradition.

Our central three are very good. With Bos still injured we lack a decent left back. Our right back simply lacks class and gives away too many free-kicks, a sure sign he is playing above his ability. The replacements are average.

Our midfield lacks creativity. Why Poppa doesn't pick Robertson is beyond me. Metcalf has a great shot on him but is poor at corners. Okan was unimpressive but I would be willing to give him a go. McGree look good but had too little time.

Irankunda is a breath of fresh air and is a great dead ball specialist but he does give away silly free-kicks   ( and penalties.) I am not convinced of Yengi and hope Toure is fit for the Asian cup. It is significant that when Irankunda leaves the field we lose most of our attack. He also has no-one to pass him the ball into space. Volpato absence was felt.

Still given all of this we should make the final of the Asian cup particularly if our injured players come back and might even win it.

If we do not get to the final then we have failed!!

Interest rates

 I am not writing about interest rates tomorrow but my beloved socceroos games agin Brazil.

The RBA will raise interest rates today by 25 points. It has too because it has, like many of us, underestimated the inflationary pressures in the economy.

Now I do believe the budget should at least be in balance however it is only 1% of GDP. People who keep on talking about spending ignore taxation. They also ignore the structural deficit is falling not rising.

If this was the key to inflation rising then the USA should have massive inflation given their deficit is over 5% and their structural deficit is much larger and rising!

I suspect the economy will slow and thus inflation will drop next year at worst.

I still believe it needed 'Bernie Fraser' to replace Phillip Lowe. The RBA got it badly wrong on how to combat covid yet Chalmers did not introduce any new 'thinking'