the rate rise we had to have

 The RBA raised interest rates as expected. HERE is an article on the rise which I don't disagree with much.

Models never predict turning points very well. I think we are close to that now. When we are there price rises wil slow quite a lot.

A lot of people are saying it feels like a recession now even the RBA governor has commented on this. It is a load of hooey. ( that is a technical term.) If people simply 'felt' a recession and acted like that then inflation would not be a problem.

It is a bit like people saying housing is now unaffordable. If this was the case then housing prices would have been falling well before interest rates started to rise.

Thus I suspect rates may well fall sometime next year as  inflation falls by more than expected.

A few things on melbourne cup day

 melbourne cup rant

I have always found it hypocritical that employers who bemoan public holidays and scream about productivity are mute on melbourne cup day. It epitomises Australia. We bludge on a day to celebrate a damned horse race. We get drunk and lose money betting on it. 

usa

That court case involving two FBI agents got tossed as did the alaskan case.(see the florida lawman on youtube for a good explanation of the decision.)

They vote tomorrow and Brad De Long has possibly the best article on the polls.

In Michigan the gal who lost the democratic senate primary now supports the republican. She DEMANDED he call out ads done by third parties. It seems calling him a jihadist a supporter of ISIS, muslim brotherhood, al qaeda is fine!

I see the republican candidate in Kansas is saying the democratic candidate could have been grooming young boys!

My view is if you ( yes I am talking to you yanks) don't think Trump needs some checks and balances then sorry you are very stupid!!

different

it appears  people see phantom lighthouses here is OZ.

Cricket and other stuff

 Test Cricket

How did we lose a series we should have won 3-0? Well how about selecting an opener who has not played much cricket over the last 2 years. What about selecting a first drop who has not performed for years.  How about selecting a number 6 as opener. This means you are two down for not much a lot of the time. Then you get to our middle order brittleness that was exposed in the last two tests.

What about transition problems. We have a heap of players in their mid 30s or approaching it. I can see quite a few retiring after the Ashes. We did have a great quartet of bowlers but clearly they were affected by the test schedule. I think Hazelwood and Lyons cannot play 5 tests and are showing their age. Boland should be used at present to give some bowlers a rest.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention the pitches and swing. There was precious little swing in all three tests. There was a bit of nip but not a lot and only spun from the footmarks. In other words the batsmen should have had the time of their lives yet they did not. Batting technique everywhere is poor.

Polling

The ALP continues to lose votes as another rate rise looms. Fancy that. I can't believe it!

Housing Affordability

home prices are falling at the largest for over 20 years. IF you want greater affordability then this is a good thing. If you want hose prices to rise you do not understand the topic.

USA

DOJ has lost the-presumption-of-regularity. In the case of the two FBI agents charged they have not even talked to anyone who actually heard what they said!

Trump's  lawyers were very poor in the WSJ case and look to be the same in the BBC case.

Few people it appears rank voting. We civilised aussies call it preferential voting. This writer does. Putting up a candidate with the same name as a major candidate can work in first past the post. It doesn't in rank voting

UK 

The Labour party has brought down quite austere budgets and as Simon Wren-Lewis shows this has come about by taxes and spending. By the way the UK are much better than other leading nations where the USA are  clearly the worst.

Around the Traps 30/10/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on my-3000-step
• David Hayward on with-an-election-looming-victorias-debt-is-huge-but-are-the-states-finances-really-that-bad
• Michelle Grattan on michelle-landry-announces-retirement-opening-path-for-matt-canavan-to-switch-to-lower-house
• Nathan Gray and Peter Draper on failure-to-ratify-the-eu-trade-deal-would-cost-australia-far-more-than-beef
• Simon Henderson on australia-should-do-more-to-back-japan-and-the-icc-in-the-face-of-us-sanctions
• Yuting Zhang et al on exempting-pensioners-from-private-health-rebate-changes-wont-make-it-fairer-heres-what-would
• Isaac Gross on inflation-jumps-to-4-3-adding-to-pressure-for-rba-rate-rise-next-week
• Margherita Matera on eu-australia-fta-the-threat-to-ratification-runs-both-ways 
• David Vallance on australia-s-usd30-billion-base-boom-needs-scrutiny-too
• Ben Doherty on australian-sas-officers-knew-about-unlawful-throwdowns-on-dead-afghans-report-says
• John Hawkins on mortgage-holders-arent-alone-in-paying-for-rate-hikes-heres-how-the-rba-spreads-the-pain
• Olaf Meynecke on unlike-anything-ive-seen-why-this-whale-season-has-marine-scientists-puzzled
• George Newhouse on we-must-protect-jewish-australians-without-casting-suspicion-on-legitimate-concern-for-palestinians

OZ Climate

• first-new-steel-mill-in-australia-in-35-years-to-be-the-first-to-be-powered-by-100-per-cent-renewables
  
• batteries-and-cells-whether-on-wheels-or-the-grid-its-all-about-chemistry-and-cost
  
• more-batteries-both-big-and-small-mean-solar-farms-dont-have-to-shut-down-so-often
  
• nelsons-new-market-design-could-provide-the-answer-to-decarbonising-australian-industry-and-transport
  
• recap-3-0-doesnt-answer-the-biggest-questions-about-snowys-25-billion-plus-pumped-hydro-gamble
  
• letting-data-centres-build-first-catch-up-on-renewables-later-could-add-40-billion-to-power-bills
  
• keep-the-temperature-down-in-an-anxious-world-we-need-to-make-the-energy-transition-work-for-everyone
  
• we-will-be-the-first-state-to-roll-out-plug-in-solar-and-batteries-to-help-renters-and-apartment-dwellers
  
• simplified-version-of-esem-to-be-used-to-propel-state-beyond-coal-and-to-75-per-cent-renewables
  
• wa-needs-more-renewables-but-that-does-not-mean-it-needs-more-gas
  
• anti-renewables-populism-is-the-largest-unpriced-risk-but-poll-data-shows-support-is-growing-even-in-hot-zones
  
• re-linking-the-nem-could-fungible-esem-bulk-energy-contracts-be-bankable 
  
• cheaper-power-from-the-balcony-plug-in-solar-and-batteries-could-open-the-energy-transition-to-renters
  
• Nicky Morrison et al on we-must-prepare-entire-cities-for-extreme-heat-our-new-study-reveals-how
• Graham Readfearn on bom-temperature-record-keeping-under-attack-again
• Eli Bendall and Rachael Nolan on while-some-eucalypts-are-hard-to-kill-climate-change-may-test-the-ability-of-others-to-survive
• Yeongmin Kweon on australia-s-green-iron-gamble-needs-more-ambition-to-convince-asia 
• Lisa Cox on menindee-lakes-water-levels-drop-mass-fish-death-fears

Northern America

• Brad De Long on torsten-slok-beats-the-ai-bear-drum , crosspost-josh-busby-and-duck-of-minerva
• Don Moynihan on blockers-and-grifters Thanks Nick
• Ian Millhiser on trump-mary-peltola-dans-sullivan-lawsuit
• Quinta Jurecic on fbi-prosecution
• Kruggers on the-crisis-next-time, trump-doesnt-give-a-damn-about-your-problems, will-the-ai-investment-splurge-last
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on the-republicans-remarkably-bad-midterm-campaigns 
• Christian Paz on kansas-senate-adam-hamilton-religion-democrat-christian-methodist-roger-marshall 
• Tyler Cowen on frances-lee-on-american-elections
• Fred Kaplan on midterms-elon-musk-republicans-china
• Jonathan Guyer on trumps-blob-foreign-policy 
• Liz Dye on comey-third-criminal-charges
• James Hamilton on u-s-gdp-grows-more-in-q3
• Nancy Youseff on brett-sylvia-hegseth-general-pentagon
• Jake Laaperruque on government-hiding-rebuke-warrantless-fisa-surveillance
• Harry Litman on trump-puts-doj-lawyers-in-indefensible-positions

Europe

• Martin Boudry on an army of yesterdays civilians Thanks Nick 
• Ian Hill on ukraine-perils-for-kyiv-in-revived-peace-talks
• Gavin Sullivan and Tereza Capelos on we-changed-the-system-how-serbian-students-ended-alexander-vucics-12-years-in-power
• Zarina Zabrinsky on oleshky-ceasefire-ukraine-press
• Fintan O'Toole on back-to-the-future-andy-burnham
• mainly macro on the-big-picture-for-forthcoming-uk.-budget-that-the-media-largely-ignores 
• Marko Milanovic and Michael Schmitt on data-centers-military-objectives-russia-ukraine

Asia

• Prathap Latchmanan on singapore-s-job-as-asean-chair-fixing-how-the-grouping-decides
• Amnon Aron on israeli-election-why-nobody-has-been-talking-about-palestinian-statehood
• Ran Porat on israel-has-voted-but-the-results-will-be-messy-heres-how-its-next-government-will-be-formed
• Hannah Ridge on why-ultra-orthodox-parties-hold-so-much-sway-in-israeli-politics
• Dov Waxman on israel-has-voted-but-what-comes-next-dissecting-a-messy-ballot-and-coalition-building-process

Wonk

• Michael Powell on city-drug-addiction-harm-reduction-policy Thanks Nick
• bigiftrue on enough is enough Thanks Nick
• Ryan Avent on meaning-and-the-crisis-of-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Samuel Hughes on the-seven-vices-of-highly-effective-victorians Thanks Nick 
• Tim Harford on the-problem-with-pdoom 
• the conversable economist on ai-in-development-world-development-report-2026
• Tyler Cowen on why-are-cybersecurity-losses-not-worse
• noahpinion on the-internet-breaks , roundup-90, a-golden-age-of-science-is-coming
• Guilherme Casaroes on lula-wins-a-miracle-election-in-brazil-now-comes-the-hard-part-putting-the-country-back-on-the-right-track
• Deborah Farias on what-lulas-stunning-comeback-means-for-the-future-of-the-far-right-in-brazil
• Martyn Khomyn on anthropics-record-us-2-trillion-stock-market-listing-highlights-the-growing-risks-for-all-of-us
• Kruggers on hack-apocalypse-now 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-europe-the-us-and-china-comparing-geoeconomic-size
• Mary McGlasson and Manny Maung on the-aid-system-is-doing-less-with-less-yet-grading-itself-far-too-kindly
• Brad De Long on crosspost-henry-farrell-agentic-ai-is-myth-in-motion

General

• Rachel McCormack on woman-leaves-the-psychoanalyst Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-bernhoff-2019-why-books-work
• Kenya Fernandes on with-an-election-looming-victorias-debt-is-huge-but-are-the-states-finances-really-that-bad

Climate

• Megan Corrarino on unep-emissions-gap-report-seven-questions
• skeptical science on how-not-to-detect-warming-acceleration , new_research
• Bishakhdatta Gayen et al on the-deep-oceans-protection-against-warming-started-to-change-in-2016-nobody-knows-what-happens-now
• Mary Stuart on how-the-far-right-uses-climate-disasters-to-build-political-power

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• ideological-bias-in-ideological-bias-in-the-production-of-research-findings 
  
• worlds-dumbest-spam-just-dropped
  
• skepticism-about-the-reading-the-mind-in-the-eyes-test
  
• six-questions-about-political-polarization-and-my-responses
  
• six-questions-about-political-polarization-and-my-responses
  
• we-interrupt-our-usual-programming-to-inform-you-that-i-was-never-hired-by-facebook-to-do-a-hit-job-on-jonathan-haidt 
  
• tension-vs-excitement-during-nba-games
  
• bou-rabee-square-root-condition-number-dependence
  
• in-the-run-up-to-the-trial-the-brothers-conducted-an-elaborate-public-relations-campaign-also-arranged-for-payments-to-influencers-and-podcasters-who-made-sympathetic-social-media-posts-about
  
• r-hat-august-1999
  
• stochastic-potential-outcomes-a-discussion-with-ang-yu-and-jonas-mikhaeil
  
• Eliot Abrams  et al on research registries: facts myths and possible improvements Thanks Nick 
• Kaiser Fung on doper-duper, abstractions-in-data-viz

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Jonathan Rauch on even-perfect-liberal-governance-could-not-have-stopped-reactionary-populism Thanks Nick
• Ingrid Robeyns on naza-on-being-a-cog-in-a-machine
• Alex Tabarrok on tyler-cowens-strongest-book-recommendations-over-the-years , eleven-outstanding-film-and-television-reviews-by-tyler-cowen-and-alex-tabarrok

Vox Wonk

• chasing-far-right-does-not-pay-centre-right-parties-evidence-germanys-2025-election 
  
• historic-monetary-tightening-benign-output-dynamics-rising-r-stars-across-atlantic 
  
• changes-health-and-longevity-elderly-us 
  
• oil-shocks-no-longer-hit-us-economy-they-used 
  
• washing-away-us-tariff-evasion-other-side-us-china-trade-war 
  
• private-equity-beyond-target-how-buyouts-reshape-supply-chains 
  
• how-agreements-between-suppliers-and-retailers-can-weaken-competition 
  
• adult-social-care-can-be-better-value-health-care-we-already-fund 
  
• not-your-average-firm-heterogeneous-cross-border-financial-allocations 
  
• powerful-pacifism-and-currency-dominance-what-150-years-international-monetary-system 
  
• company-wage-policy-low-wage-labour-market 
  
• real-economy-case-capital-markets-integration-cross-border-shareholders-and-firm
  

the coming rate rise and some other things

 CPI

The ABS released the September CPI yesterday ( the quarterly numbers have to be downloaded). It wasn't good and no-one thought it would be. HERE is Isaac Gross on the figures. I do not disagree.

The trimmed mean has in reality stopped rising BUT it aint falling. The non-tradables rate is rising and is too high. It appears higher fuel prices ( fossil fuel ) has been integrated into the system.

Thus a rate rise is all but guaranteed.

Serbia

 The pro-russian government has fallen due in part to student unrest. This is a good thing unlike in France where it has been overtaken by far-left fanatics..

The Prince

you haven't read the book. you should 

Israel

They have had an election and no-one understands the result. THIS might help.

US DOJ

They are trying to put Jim Comey in gaol but they are sooo incompetent and embarrassing

Elon Musk.

 Steve from Brisbane had a post on Musk. Then Fred Kaplan wrote about Musk and the fall-out from the mid-terms.

I have never had much time for Musk. Tesla always looks over-priced but to give him credit he initially made it a 'new' company but now it is lagging behind competitors mainly from China! He was mad to get into politics where he has made twitter a cesspit and made owners and potential owners of tesla cars very cheesed off.

His space X company looks overpriced as well. It clearly has the worst AI around.

His adventure via DOGE was a disaster where neither he nor his people had a clue about government consequently his group made little savings in dollar terms but cost lives and the USA's soft power status.

His companies get suspiciously good treatment from the government and his  understanding of world politics is pathetic. this can be gauged by his declaration of Ukraine as 'warmongers'.

In irony of irony he has actually admitted he got into the USA on untrue terms.

some stuff on Climate

 Well snowy 2.0 is obviously in the news.

Peter Hannan argues against it.

Andrew Blakkers   is for it. It does last 150 years!

We still have rising temperatures.

Tamino on rising sea temperatures

You have to know how to detect it.

Zeke Hausfather on how not to detect global warming