renewables

 It has been ssome time since I 'posted' on this topic so here are some articles.

• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper
  
• batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
  

Wholesale prices are 47% lower than this time last year. Why you ask? renewables. As they further increase and coal/ gas further decrease this should continue.

Ask another question. Why aren't investors building coal fired power stations if they are the cheapest form of power with their ears pinned back. afterall no-one is stopping them! Because they are not the cheapest  and take a long time to build. If nuclear is so attractive why are investors knocking the door down in protest for not being able to build them. Because they are easily the most expensive form of power. Duh

Politics in OZ

 Victoria

I cannot believe the ALP want to replace their leader when there is an election in november. Do they think victorians are complete morons. It merely reinforces the impression the ALP is in disarray and are fighting among themselves. The punters in australia punish the ALP for this way more harsher than the LNP . Now I favour a change of government in victoria as the ALP have been in for more than two terms and are showing clear signs they have run out of puff.

NSW

We have an ICAC hearing which is not going to be good for the Liberals moreson as they clearly favour Chris Minns. I suggest we might see a weakened version of the SA result here. The ICAC inquiry might    ( probably) divert votes from the LNP to ON.

Hanson

What can we say. She is certainly 'affectionate' about the white Australia policy'. By the way it was Harold Holt not Gough Whitlam that got rid of it thank the lord. How that is not racist thinking? Then next she is blaming victims of domestic violence. and of course she favous mass deportations alah trump. AND she has a glass jaw politically.

There is an  old saying that no matter who you vote for you will get a politician. Apart from being a moronic truism even the criticism misses the point. Whoever you vote for will be a human being. As some stage they will lie, mislead etc even dissapoint. Alas the voters are human as well and have undue expectations.

The price of oil

It is hard to see the price of oil falling much. There are four reasons for this.

1. The strait of hormuz
2. the red sea
3. the fall in russian prodution
4. inventories

As you can see 1 & 2 are related to the Illegal war the USA is conducting on Iran. They are chokepoints for middle east oil to get to the rest of the world. Trump is a moron ( this is a highly technical term) and has gotten himself into a war where there is no end unless he gives Iran too much inn an agreement. Iran has no reason to sue for peace and would like it to continue until after the mid-terms. The houthis are joining Iran in their quest. Just remember even if hostilities stop ships need insurance to sail and that would take time in both areas.

People have seemingly ignored the Russian/Ukraine war. Ukraine drones are making a mess of russian oil production and terminals. It is hard to see Ukraine reducing this successful campaign.

Inventories were rundown a lot when the War started and no oil was able to get out of the strait of hormuz. Any further hostilities could see oil prices rise bigtime.

Let me finish on a very bearish note. If trump does put boots on the ground in Iran then watch out!

Around the Traps 24/7/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rex Patrick on defence-thales-munitions-contract-aukus Thanks Nick
• Sam Bennett and Owain Emslie on cutting-community-participation-budgets-isnt-needed-to-save-the-ndis
• Michelle Grattan on israel-attacks-labors-draft-platform-on-israel-gaza-conflict
• Andrew Cullen on a-cheap-25-year-old-piece-of-hardware-broke-telstra-its-a-wake-up-call-for-other-businesses
• Hamish McKenzie and Alison Reeve on industry-backlash-threatens-australias-gas-supply-fix-leaders-must-step-up
• Wendy Goff on to-turn-the-socceroos-into-world-cup-contenders-we-need-to-start-with-the-junior-game
• Greg Jericho on gas-exports-tax-pressure-growing-inside-labor-alp-conference
• Jason Nassious on the-way-australia-taxes-gas-production-is-stuck-in-the-past-this-is-why-companies-arent-paying-their-fair-share
• Dennis Muller on media-scrutiny-can-take-many-forms-pauline-hansons-past-few-weeks-have-shown-how-quickly-it-can-backfire
• James Martin et al on three-things-australia-must-do-to-end-the-tobacco-wars
• Antony Green on correcting-late-night-live-on-one-nations-past-legal-problems
• Jon Piccini on white-australia-has-always-been-a-myth-hanson-lamenting-its-end-is-wrong-and-dangerous

OZ Climate

• its-got-to-be-more-than-big-batteries-the-triumphs-and-failures-of-australias-green-energy-transition
  
• australias-solar-pv-recycling-plans-on-hold-afhttps://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-solar-pv-recycling-plans-on-hold-after-flagship-pilot-project-suspended/ter-flagship-pilot-project-suspended
  
• firefighter-group-hits-back-at-wild-claims-and-fear-mongering-over-transmission-lines-and-fire-risk
  
• yes-we-need-more-wind-power-in-the-meantime-lets-get-the-most-from-the-projects-we-have 
• major-milestone-for-big-battery-next-to-gas-plant-in-coal-country-as-1038th-and-final-unit-installed
  
• scientifically-tenuous-half-baked-epbc-reform-will-leave-wind-industry-in-the-wilderness-investors-warn
  
• rinehart-back-miner-achieves-90-pct-renewables-in-june-quarter-may-take-processing-plant-off-grid
  
• battery-boast-australia-dodges-global-gas-price-shock-with-help-of-storage-and-renewables
  
• will-data-centres-save-the-wind-industry-or-kill-our-climate-targets-or-could-they-do-both
  
• worm-turns-for-wind-arrival-of-biggest-and-lowest-cost-turbines-stirs-australias-moribund-market
  
• Pippa Neil on slowdown-arctic-sea-ice-melt-largest-winter-decline-record
• Jason Alexandra on building-dams-to-protect-lismore-from-flooding-would-cost-billions-could-nature-do-it-better

Northern America

• Michael Liss on a-natural-aristocracy-among-men Thanks Nick
• institutional economikevin-warsh-likes-monetarism-but-does-monetarism-like-kevin-warsh
• Menzie Chinn on ai-capex-and-accounting-for-us-gdp-growth
• Kruggers on lina-khan-on-ai-and-more , trumps-war-on-the-future-monetary-edition , oy-canada-tariffs, elon-musk-the-new-hero-of-populism , quagmire-of-the-vanities
• Jean-Nicholas Bordelau on trump-is-rehashing-old-claims-the-2020-election-was-stolen-his-real-aim-sowing-doubt-in-the-midterms 
• Tom Nicholls on trump-war-iran-casualties, trump-iran-conflict-pentagon
• Ruth Marcus on trumps-war-on-journalists
• noahpinion on americas-political-economy-is-pretty-bleak-right-now
• Chris Bertram on on-refugees-being-cast-as-invaders-and-fighting-age-males
• Nina Jankowicz on trump-election-fraud-speech-what-to-know
• Joshua Keating on trump-venezuela-iran 
• Dahlia Lithwick on monarchy-supreme-court-popular-constitution-by-the-people
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-goes-to-trade-war-with-canada , trump-nuclear-deal-saudi-israel-july
• Tyler Cowen on is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy
• Biyon Joseph on washington-misreads-middle-power-cooperation
• Bryan Walsh on wildfire-heat-wave-climate-change-smoke-adaptation
• Fred Kaplan on trump-saudi-nuclear-pact-israels-popularity-tanking
• Daniel Schlozman on the-dnc-against-itself
• Dani Schulkin et al on courts-grand-juries-reject-trump-investigations
• Lisa Needham on lorenzo-salgado-araujo-joan-sebastian-guerrero
• Caitlin Dewey on how-israel-lost-the-dems
• Michael Schmitt on clausewitz-operation-epic-fury
• Alan Wolf on trumps-new-tariffs-over-forced-labor-are-unlikely-to-survive-a-court-challenge thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on trump-saudi-nuclear-deal-analysis

Europe

• Eric Shaw on andy-burnham-is-the-labour-leader-third-time-lucky-for-the-uks-prime-minister-in-waiting
• Ben Wellings on burnhams-britain-what-kind-of-country-has-the-uks-new-prime-minister-inherited
• Stefan Wolff on ukraines-defence-shake-up-exposes-rift-in-zelenskys-inner-circle
• Paul Whitely on could-count-binface-actually-win
• Hannah Bunting on andy-burnham-becomes-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-leaves-downing-street-for-the-last-time
• Andrew Roe-Crines on no-lectern-and-the-promise-of-a-new-model-what-we-can-learn-from-andy-burnhams-speech
• noahpinion on the-uk-is-a-cautionary-tale-for-the-USA
• Cory Alpert on kyiv-s-streets-are-rewriting-zelenskyy-s-mandate
• mainly macro on the-political-barriers-to-radical-tax-reform
• Mick Ryan on ukraine-s-new-command-team-faces-its-first-three-tests 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-remembering-a-cold-war-adventure-in-portugal

Asia

• Lyne O'Donnell on the-taliban-s-harder-task-to-turn-conquest-into-control
• Linda Lee on dmz-changes-put-birds-on-a-trip-wire
• Vincent Parada on why-chinese-claims-of-sovereignty-over-the-batan-islands-cannot-be-ignored 
• Sanjoy Paul on why-new-houthi-threats-in-the-red-sea-could-spell-trouble-for-global-oil-prices-and-inflation
• Mariam Farida on as-its-support-in-lebanon-wanes-hezbollah-faces-a-difficult-decision-about-its-future
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parama on iran-is-turning-into-the-sort-of-forever-war-that-donald-trump-promised-to-avoid
• Asha Hemrajani and Julia Chinn on singapore-s-anti-scam-war-catching-mules-missing-masterminds
• Caitllan Dewey on iran-war-july-strikes
• Brad De Long on the-strait-of-hormuz-has-now-been-effectively-closed-for-4 1/2-months
• Hamideh Mohammadi and Ali Abbassi on as-missiles-fly-iranians-are-turning-to-art-culture-and-memes-to-find-community
• Helen Epstein on gazas-deadly-soil
• Ved Shinde on japan-and-india-focus-on-culture-to-connect
• Bich Tran on vietnam-s-cooperation-and-struggle-bind-with-china

Wonk

• James Breckwoldt on how-to-get-big-stuff-done-in-government Thanks Nick
• Toby Manhire on bridges-and-betrayal-the-lange-douglas-letters Thanks Nick
• the technium on latent-space-as-a-new-medium Thanks Nick 
• moral clarity on the-people-who-know-nothing-know-everything Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on can-you-keep-a-trade-secret
• the conversable economist on is-progress-sustainable-mokyrs-nobel-lecture , chokepoints-for-ocean-trade-strait-of-hormuz-and-what-else
• Tony Jan on there-are-already-16-000-satellites-in-earths-orbit-how-will-we-manage-the-next-100-000
• Marina Zhang on chinese-companies-are-taking-over-the-ev-market-whats-behind-their-meteoric-rise
• Cass Sunstein on on-being-a-conservative thanks Tyler 
• Brad De Long on convergence-in-llm-quality-and-slowdown-llm-improvement , the-short-summer-of-cross-nation-convergence-in-real-GDP-per capita-levels , retrodiction-and-prediction-history
• Joyce Siette on your-dementia-risk-is-higher-if-your-spouse-has-it-but-its-more-than-shared-lifestyle
• Areyh Neir on so-called-international-law-trump-icc
• noahpinion on who-was-the-worst-monster-of-the-20th-century
• Markus Wagner on the-us-is-issuing-billions-in-tariff-refunds-that-wont-unwind-the-damage-to-the-global-trading-system

General

• Joshua McDermott on the-odyssey-is-haunted-by-the-mysterious-sea-peoples-but-who-were-they-really
• Daniel Mendelsohn on artful-weaving-odyssey-christopher-nolan

Climate

• David Appell on no-pause-in-global-temperature
• moyhu on june-global-surface-templs-up-0062-from-may
• Duo Chan and Alessandro Silvano on your-dementia-risk-is-higher-if-your-spouse-has-it-but-its-more-than-shared-lifestyle
• ocean acidification on the-molecular-footprint-of-global-change-in-antarctic-coral 
• open mind on canada-wildfire 
• skeptical science on canada-boreal-wildfires-not-just-bad-management , new_research
• Harris Anderson et al on can-we-alter-ocean-chemistry-to-absorb-carbon-here-are-the-pros-and-cons
• Katherine Johnson on can-rewilding-offer-us-a-brighter-greener-future

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-scientists-in-the-epstein-files-including-a-roboticist-and-an-esp-researcher
  
• its-all-about-the-super-pacs-how-the-new-york-times-completely-misreported-campaign-contributions-in-the-maine-senate-race
  
• university-of-california-professor-and-ted-talk-performer-asks-sex-trafficker-for-3000000-because-he-thinks-theres-a-50-chance-hell-make-important-discoveries-in-telepathy
  
• fancy-three-dimensional-sets-are-easier-to-construct-in-books-than-in-movies-but-harder-to-explain
  
• was-this-usda-survey-really-redundant-costly-politicized-and-extraneous 
  
• survey-statistics-poststratification-without-population-level-information 
  
• he-washed-his-hands-in-a-can-of-tetraethyl-lead-at-a-press-conference-claiming-he-was-not-taking-any-chance-whatever-he-knew-this-to-be-a-lie-having-already-succumbed-to-a-bout
  
• pretty-maps-of-the-ny-mayoral-election-vote-the-meta-point-here-is-that-people-have-a-false-intuition-that-any-complicated-piece-of-information-can-be-conveyed-in-a-single-plot
  
• how-generic-language-shapes-the-development-of-social-thought
  
• Kaiser Fung on recent-ai-use-cases

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• place-based-industrial-policies-long-run 
  
• how-oil-price-shocks-redraw-map-conflict
  
• dollar-erosion-macroeconomic-consequences-losing-reserve-currency-status 
  
• occupational-licensing-across-countries-new-evidence-44-nations
  
• rebuilding-world-order-two-strategies-fragmented-world 
  
• lifelong-learning-becoming-increasingly-important-response-labour-market 
  
• achieving-european-banking-union-without-increasing-risks 
  
• resilience-network-property-europes-integration-test-2050
  

Iran

You do not win a war by bombing the clappers out of the country. By simply staying on their feet Iran wins the war and the USA and therefore Trump looks impotent.

As I said before if you wish to destroy the nuclear program, reduce its missile and drone capacity, have regime change and have it withdraw from financing various terrorist groups then you have to have boots on the ground. Even then the results would be problematic. There would be lots of well armed people willing to kill US soldiers. The politics is also against it. It is already a very unpopular war. This would make it more so. Why were they killed would be a devastating question.

Thus we we have trump and his incompetent defence secretary having overreached themselves. However it gets worse. Iran now have done so.

We live in uncertain times and i have no idea of how this mess gets solved.

Some TV Shows

 The Capture

I will simply say watch it. There are three seasons and they are all brilliant. It is on Iview so binge it if you haven't seen it. Highly recommended.

Watson

A modern day version of Sherlock and Watson but with little of Sherlock. Watson is a highly trained medical specialist not the bumbling butt of jokes in the novels and he is black and it is based in the USA. He does have a beautiful ex-wife. After an episode you will like it or not. It is more of a medical drama rather than a crime drama.

Boston Blue

This is an offshoot of Blue Bloods one of the best us crime series and this does does not disappoint. In a word if you like blue bloods then you will like boston blue. A couple of minor criticisms. Sean is different and not as good and the writing on religion ( christianity and judaism) lacks knowledge.

Cooper and Fry

Another series on the ABC. Short seasons but interesting. You will either like it or not after the first episode.

The Odyssey

 I watched the odyssey last night with my two sons. It is three hours I wil never get back.

Given my greek background ( I have always enjoyed greek mythology even as a schoolboy)and given the rotten tomatoes rating of 98 I went full of hope.

It was in vain. The film is three hours and way too long and to be honest I thought it to a load of old cobblers.

My eldest son thought it too long but thought he needed to watch it. My youngest said it was soso but again you needed to watch it and the audience actually clapped at the end of the movie so yes I could be just one of the 2%!

There was quite a few black people in the film which would have been unheard of in greek society two of the wives and one was helen of troy/sparta. very inclusive!

I was surprised he didn't use the story to show the remnants of troy started rome!