Around the Traps 16/9/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,OyOy,Oy

• Adam Triggs on unlocking-australias-productivity-paradox-why-things-arent-that-super
• Greg Barton on morrison-wants-muslim-leaders-to-do-more-to-prevent-terrorism-but-what-more-can-they-do
• Rodger Shanahan on debating-terrorism
• Croaking Cassandra on show-your-workings-kiwibuild-the-reserve-bank-and-the-ombudsman, reserve-bank-whimsy, we-need-better-foundations-for-financial-stability-policy, the-prime-minister-continues-to-shame-us
• Mark the Ballot on update-poll-aggregates
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-well-that-wasnt-much-of-a-honeymoon
• The Kouk on how-labor-s-plans-to-revamp-negative-gearing-could-put-a-floor-on-house-prices-and-lower-rents
• Michael Adam on behind-the-judgment-why-the-federal-court-tore-up-a-35m-settlement-between-asic-and-westpac-over-lending-standards
• Clinton Free et al on in-defence-of-asic-theres-more-to-regulation-than-prosecution
• Ross Gittins on the-price-we-pay-for-funding-schools-based-on-religion
• Greg Jericho on morrison-will-feel-relief-at-this-overdue-wages-growth-but-it-is-still-pathetic

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on origins-and-challenges-of-a-strong-dollar
• Barkley Rosser on robert-j-samuelson-almost-right
• Open Mind on trump-insults-while-california-burns 
• 538 on the-2018-midterms-in-4-charts
• Menzie Chinn on origins-and-challenges-of-a-strong-dollar
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on us-monetary-policy-spillovers Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-softened-in-October
• Adam Gopnik on wine-war-donald-trump-and-emmanuel-macron
• Ann Lowrey on peter-navarro-trump-trade
• New Deal Democrat on changes-in-labor-bargaining-power-take-up-to-a-decade-to-be-fully-effective
• Kirk Goldsberry on how-beto-orourke-shifted-the-map-in-texas
• Kruggers on the-tax-cut-and-the-balance-of-payments-wonkish Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on why-are-us-workers-not-participating Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on ten-years-after-the-crisis-is-the-banking-system-safer Thanks Mark
• Mathew Yglesias on donald-trump-daily-caller-interview

Europe

• Mainly Macro on if-may-loses-her-brexit-vote-what-happens-next, governments-of-fools, brexit-of-course-everyone-hates-a-compromise
• stumbling and mumbling on beer-economic-determinism
• Paul Fritjers on second-brexit-referendum-questions

Asia

•  Daniel Woker on endgame-dubai
• Michael Breen on explainer-why-sri-lanka-is-sliding-into-political-turmoil-and-what-could-happen-next
• Sam Roggeveen on more-than-words-needed-meet-China-challenge

Wonk

• Stephen Grenville on trump-and-intellectual-property
• Tim Harford on endofgrowth
• Macromania on smart-contracts-and-asset-tokenization
• stumbling and mumbling on contrarians-in-public-life
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-world-war-i, what-amazon-said-what-amazon-meant, superstar-firms-and-cities
• Dani Rodrik on economists-focus-on-markets-too-narrow Thanks Mark
• Barry Eichengreen on populism-common-denominator-political-corruption Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on what-the-hell-happened-to-brazil-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Fergus Green on keep-it-in-the-ground-what-we-can-learn-from-anti-fossil-fuel-campaigns
• Jonathan Kaplan on how-anti-semitic-stereotypes-from-a-century-ago-echo-today
• Croaking Cassandra on more-thoughts-on-financial-crises-and-economic-performance
• Institutional Economics on an-open-door-how-globalised-are-the-australian-and-us-economies
• Promarket on obesity-and-globalization-evidence-from-mexico Thanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on digital-money-and-payments Thanks Mark
• Joseph Gagnon on ten-years-after-the-crisis-is-the-banking-system-safer Thanks Mark

General

• Peter Dorman on the-death-of-shame
• John Cook on work-smarter

Climate

• David Appell on have-co2-emissions-declined-under-trump
• Moyhu on october-global-surface-templs-up-0166-since-september
• Tyler Cowen on 2018-midterm-results-is-the-carbon-tax-dead
• the grumpy economist on carbon-tax
• and Then Theres Physics on limits-to-growth
• Real Climate on resplandy-et-al-correction-and-response
• Helen Phillips et al on explainer-why-the-antarctic-circumpolar-current-is-so-important-for-keeping-antarctica-frozen

Andrew Gelman ( mainly statistics)

• 2018-what-really-happened
• matching-discarding-non-matches-deal-lack-complete-overlap-regression-adjust-imbalance-treatment-control-groups
• 2018-who-actually-voted
• hey-heres-two-surveys-population
• trashed
• chocolate-milk-another-stunning-discovery-experiment-24-people
• robustness-checks-joke
• the-state-of-the-art
• 2018-how-did-people-actually-vote-the-real-story-not-the-exit-polls
• Fleur Johns et al on the-promise-and-problems-of-including-big-data-in-official-government-statistics
• Mayo on tour-guide-mementos-and-quiz-2-1-excursion-2-tour-i-induction-and-confirmation
• Kaiser Fung on its-hard-to-tell-apart-business-journalism-and-pr-the-wework-edition

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• more-sandwiches-anyone
• No Hesitations on jfec-special-issue-for-peter-christofferson

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• humanitys-future
• Brad De Long on review-of-capitalism-in-america-a-history-by-alan-greenspan-and-adrian-wooldridge

Vox Wonk

• market-expanding-network-effects-bike-sharing
• cryptocurrencies-financial-stability-and-fairness
• sovereign-debt-banks-and-firms-investment-italy
• minimum-wage-income-tax-credits-and-criminal-recidivism
• aggregating-labour-supply-elasticities
• lasting-impact-taiping-rebellion
• commuting-time-and-family-labour-supply-decisions
• abortion-laws-and-women-s-health
• global-trends-interest-rates
• automation-and-job-displacement-emerging-markets
• firm-sorting-and-agglomeration
• risk-and-black-swans-emerging-markets
• firm-sorting-and-agglomeration
• relative-valuation-distributed-ledger-technologies
• taxation-and-labour-supply-married-couples
• rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment

Woeful TV Writing

Time off from serious stuff and i am finding as I graduate into being a grumpy old man I am needing more escapism thus needing more enjoyable TV shows.

What makes this impossible is very poor writing. I initially thought this the province of the USA. In this I was influenced by CASTLE. What should have been the greatest series of all time turned into a complete joke.
Just a few things to highlight very poor and lazy writing.

• A mere detective is promoted to Captain. She leapfrogs every Sergeant and Lieutenant in New York
• This detective resigned from the NYPD to pursue a career in a National Security agency ( which was given not one but THREE different names ). 
• She was given a hefty suspension for going rogue only three years hence. She was sacked by the same national security agency.
• On her first day as Captain she does not turn up to work but no-one does a thing.
• A hit squad who has killed all of the people Beckett worked with at the said Agency fall for the oldest trick in the game broken glass!

however to my horror I have recently found a few british series where the writing are equally poor.

Bancroft. Here we have a detective murdering people tampering with evidence. Even when her story constantly changes ( always a problem) her Boss still does nothing.I could not help but compare with Line of Duty  ( season 4) where there are some similarities but done very well.

The Split was simply terrible. Here a woman rails against her father who left the family. Yet this woman had sex with a man on the night BEFORE her wedding. It ends with her continuing this adulterous affair despite her waxing lyrical against her  husband who had done the same. Indeed the only consistent theme of this series was that everyone lied.

What is the common denominator here.

Firstly the writing needs to be as accurate as possible and thus true to life. When poetic licence is used it must be made explicit.

Secondly in a series the writers must be cognisant of what has occurred in previous programs.

Poll Roundup

The inimitable Kevin Bonham has his first poll round up since the coup and it aint pretty.

What I find interesting is that most people expect the LNP coalition to get a thumping.

• Scott Morrison does. He is campaigning as an Opposition Leader and each strategy gets shot down in flames. The moving of the Australian embassy to Jerusalem is merely an example of a government attempting to do anything to try and get a lift in the polls
• Bill Shorten does and he earnestly ties to show a confident but not smug face.
• 'Conservative' commentators believe a landslide is on and are saying hyperbolic things about Shorten and the ALP

And there is two state elections before the Federal election.

What can Muslim leaders do?

Every time I have a great idea about something to write something much better does it.
Greg Barton who had made a reputation on terrorism amongst other matters has a very good article on morrison-wants-muslim-leaders-to-do-more-to-prevent-terrorism-but-what-more-can-they-do.

Let's face it when politicians say things like the above it is for political reasons usually gross political reasons.

That they never think they maybe putting in danger the relationships various intelligence and security organisations have with the Islamic community never enters their heads or they simply do not care!!

Rodger Shanahan on a related issue.

The Mid term elections

Okay the serious people have examined the results and they are following
Andrew Gelman

• 2018-what-really-happened
• 2018-who-actually-voted

Nate Silver

• the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020

Around the Traps 9/11/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Neal Hughes  on  better-data-would-help-crack-the-drought-insurance-problem
• Emilly Millane on tinkering-can-achieve-a-lot-politics-isnt-broken 
• Croaking Cassandra on deposit-insurance-obr-etc, that-will-be-2-million-and-would-you-like-fries-with-that, the-prc-and-new-zealand-bits-and-pieces, inching-towards-greater-trasparency, some-thoughts-on-the-monetary-policy-statement-2
• Ross Gittins on our-oldies-have-never-had-it-so-good, dont-worry-youll-have-plenty-in-retirement
• Liveo De Matteo on australian-economic-growth-in-longer-term-perspective
• Terry Goldsworthy on three-charts-on-representation-of-australian-new-zealand-and-sudan-born-people-in-victorian-crime-statistics
• Thomas Sigler et al on where-are-chinese-migrants-choosing-to-settle-in-australia-look-to-the-suburbs
• Brendan Coates et al on why-we-should-worry-less-about-retirement-and-leave-super-at-9-5
• The Kouk on an-rba-rate-cut-is-not-about-housing-it-s-about-exports-and-investment
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-why-we-distrust-the-consumer-price-index

Northern America

• David Appell on have-co2-emissions-declined-under-trump
• Kruggers on opinion/the-perversion-of-fiscal-policy-slightly-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on the-fed-won-t-let-turmoil-in-stocks-slow-it-down Thanks Mark
• Joseph Gagnon on trump-and-navarros-mistaken-assumptions-about-trade-deficits Thanks Mark
• Timothy Lynch on the-us-midterms-show-the-power-of-trumps-divisive-messages
• David Frum om trump-forces-sessions-out-and-attacks-accountability
• Peter Beinart on trump-and-harsh-truth-exposed-midterms
• David Remnick on daily-comment/the-midterms-mark-a-turning-point-in-the-trump-presidency
• John Cassidy on make-no-mistake-the-midterms-were-a-democratic-victory-and-a-rebuke-of-trump
• Larry Summers on fed-bashing-is-a-fools-game Thanks Mark
• Promarket on ftc-should-focus-labor-monopsony Thanks Mark
• Scott Lucas on us-midterm-results-six-key-issues-and-what-they-mean-for-the-countrys-uncertain-future
• Dan Crawford on white-house-press-secretary-uses-fake-infowars-video
• the conversable economist on the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-one-year-later
• Geoffrey Skelley on the-suburbs-all-kinds-of-suburbs-delivered-the-house-to-democrats

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke onune-breve-histoire-du-brexit
• stumbling and mumbling on the-triumph-of-the-liberal-technocrats, not-wearing-a-poppy
• Mainly Macro on mediamacro-is-in-rude-health, health-spending-over-time, the-lies-we-were-told
• the conversable economist on the-scandinavian-style-of-capitalism
• Coppolla comment on now-state-pensions-are-equalised-lets-fix-the-real-problem

Asia

• Vivienne Chow on china-changed-language-speech
• Druva Jaishankar on four-reasons-manage-china-rise
• Elliot Brennan on xinjiang-outrage-not-policy
• Kirsten Han on singapore-policing-social-media
• Brad Setser on china-should-import-more Thanks Mark
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-doing-business-china-donald-soulmate
• James Goldrick on new-normal-close-naval-encounter-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Coppolla comment on the-myth-of-monetary-sovereignty
• the conversable econmist on fall-2018-journal-of-economic-perpestives-online,why-quantitative-easing-will-return
• Nick Rowe on bicycle-disequilibrium-theory
• the grumpy economist on kotlikoff-on-big-con
• Brad De Long on economists-and-the-financial-crisis, was-the-great-recession-more-damaging-than-the-great-depression
• Growth covergance on Convergence Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on inflation-in-emerging-and-developing-economies
• Eric Lonergan on functional-finance-fiscal-rules-synthesis-part-ii
• stumbling and mumbling on stabilization-policy-with-ignorance
• Kenneth Rogoff on global-impact-of-chinese-recession Thanks Mark
• Macro mania on smart-contracts-and-asset-tokenization

General

• Scientific American on what-is-an-almost-prime-number Thanks Mark 
• Romain Faith on 100-years-since-the-wwi-armistice-remembrance-day-remains-a-powerful-reminder-of-the-cost-of-war
• David Elstein on great-war-and-how-it-ended

Climate

• Hotwhopper on global-warming-is-in-air-in-uah-lower-troposhere
• open mind on the-5-most-important-data-sets-of-climate-science
• and Then Theres Physics on the-benefits-of-acting-now-rather-than-later
• Scientifiv American on the-oceans-are-heating-up-faster-than-expected Thanks Mark
• moyhu on october-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-up-0.1C-from-september
• Desmog blog on new-findings-faster-ocean-warming-climate-change
• Eli Rabett on eli-explains-it-all-how-back-radiation
• moyhu on piomas-november-2018
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-comments-on-cox

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• simulations-not-scalable-theory-scalable
• reluctant-engage-post-hoc-speculation-unexpected-result-not-clearly-support-hypothesis
• cornell-prof-not-pizzagate-guy-one-quick-trick-getting-1700-peer-reviewed-publications-cv
• purported-csi-effect-retroactive-precision-fallacy
• why-it-can-be-rational-to-vote-2
• 35-differentiates-solitary-confinement-county-jail-house-arrest-70-others
• watch-naively-implicitly-based-flat-prior-bayesian-statements-based-classical-confidence-intervals
• melanie-miller-says-as-someone-who-has-worked-in-a-i-for-decades-ive-witnessed-the-failure-of-similar-predictions-of-imminent-human-level-a-i-and-im-certain-these-latest-forec
• recapping-recent-plagiarism-scandal
• Tim Harford on exploitative-algorithms-are-using-tricks-as-old-as-haggling-at-the-bazaar
• Kaiser Fung on exercising-fails-to-stop-obesity-doh
• Mayo on souvenir-c-a-severe-testers-translation-guide-excursion-1-tour-ii

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• econometrics-reading-for-november

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• gods-and-robots-myths-and-machines
• crocking cassandra on the Fed and Lehmans
• Robert Kuttner on financial-crash-that-failed

Vox Wonk

• interwar-british-fiscal-policy-and-economic-growth
• permanent-transitory-confusion
• sat-retaking-and-college-enrolment-gaps
• mortality-risk-insurance-and-value-life
• future-pro-eu-sentiment-uk
• investing-managerial-honesty
• legal-clauses-and-sovereign-bond-pricing-euro-area
• mapping-childhood-roots-social-mobility
• new-ebook-economics-great-war-centennial-perspective
• politics-facebook-era
• not-so-generalised-effects-generalised-system-preferences
• central-bank-balance-sheets-and-monetary-policy
• commissions-autumn-2018-forecast

Luke Foley is finished

Luke Foley the ALP leader in NSW and likely winner of the State election in NSW in march is finished. His behaviour whilst drunk with as female reporter is simply not acceptable.