The RBA had no choice

 well the RBA raised rates.

see:

• Nicki Hutley
• Stella Huangfa

and heavily related that great star Mark the Graph

I want to go back into time and do a mea culpa.

I was one of those who thought the RBA was too slow in cutting rates. Everything around us at the time was showing inflation was dropping quickly and wages was NEVER a problem.

That proved wrong. It was wrong becaause the speed limit of the economy was now a lot lower than we previously thought. CBA economic research was first onto this ( after being like me hawkish on rate cutting.) Mark the Graph was also on the job writing brilliantly on this topic.

This also had consquences for fiscal policy. I was sympathetic towards the government. If the RBA is raising rates the budget should be at worst balalnced as Ken Henry has noted. A Government tightening fiscal plicy as the RBA is tightening monetary policy means avoiding a recession becomes quite hard.

However now wee all onow fidcal plocy has to be contractionary. The structural deficit is around $20b and this has to be cut.

I see nothing wrong with the government informing the RBA how much it will cut it. Neither wants to see a recession however the RBA does not want to see any supply side effect turn nito rising inflation!

The Bondi Royal Commision

 I am not happy with the Royal commision.

To my mind there are two things it needs to make judgement on.

1. Were the intelligence and security forces doing their properly in this instance.
2. Why did the two murderers do what they did

I am underwhelmed that Dennis Richardson gave up the ghost on the first. On the surface, as I have constantkly said, it is very hard to stop lone wolf events unless they are incredinly stupid. ( They have been thus far in Australia. We need to see in black and white whether they did their job !

We were told by all and sundry and presumably with the blessing of the various agencies that the two people were very influenced by ISIS. However we have had some politicians like our over-rated premier and some in the media say they were influenced by happenings in Gaza. 

The BIG problem here is the inherent contradiction between these beliefs. IF you are a fervent supporter of ISIS then how in the hell do you support Gazans when ISIS hates them to death. This would be cognitive dissonance big time. Another  problem was the  planning started well before October 7 and the consquences! 

Killing jews in Sydney makes no sense if you believed this for various reasons which are easily apparent.On the other hand killing jews in sydney does make sense if you are a disciple of ISIS.

On a related matter I am dissapointed the council of sydney have not allowed speakers talk on why globalise the Intifada should be banned as a slogan. I have written before how absurd it is for people to believe their lives are threatened in sydney over this phrase. Clearly a lot of education is needed. I hope the speakers can do this otherwise the event will be wasted.

Gerard Henderson watch

 Our friend Gerry is playing the grumpy old man well.

He didn't like panelists on Sally Sara's breakfast program not mentioning the bondi attack involved jews. Well unless you have been living under a rock everyone knows that! He is also with the crowd that allege that it was part of a anti-semitism wave in Australia. No mention from our Gerry of Iranian based motives and their hand in this nor of a criminal attempting to get a better deal by instigating anti-semitism 'problems'. What was also missing was how people who are essentially ISIS disciples' would kill jews because of Gaza when ISIS hates  Palestine and their people!

He is very good at saying people or organisations are left wing, far left wing etc BUT he never defines this. Is it absolute or relative for example. We do not know.

He doesn't like Jimmy Kimmel's joke. He clearly needs an education. Since self-awareness is not a Henderson strength he simply does not understand he is showing , like Chris Kenny did , a lot of ignorance of the topic. Perhaps he should get onto youtube and look up some don rickles roasts where the husband was a lot older than the wife and in advanced years!!

He also claims the independent in the Farrer by-election is a teal without any real explanation. For example is she campaigning on issues the teals have? This apparently too much worrk for our Gerry to do. He simply says climate 200 has contributed to her campaign. Okay how much money was it and was it comparable to the teals in the last election? It is all insinuation. A bit like when he continually refered to Obama as Barak hussein Obama. See

Around the Traps 1/5/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• anonymous on ndis-insider-reforms-conflict-of-interest-quality-auditor Thanks Nick
• Georgia Van Torn on ndis-eligibility-will-be-based-on-functional-capacity-not-diagnostic-labels-but-what-does-that-mean
• Helen Wolfenden on theyre-my-people-radio-presenter-james-valentine-truly-understood-and-valued-his-audience
• Mark the Graph on stagflation-lead-in-australias-saddle , inflation-causes-diagnosis-and-cures , should-rba-raise-rates-in-may-2026 , central-bank-purposefulness-take-two
• Tom Barber on ai-danger-no-longer-myth-it-s-called-mythos
• Frank Bongiorno on  the-times-seem-to-suit-anthony-albanese-so-why-isnt-he-more-popular
• Fei Gao on how-much-a-new-1-000-tax-offset-would-really-be-worth-and-whos-better-off-avoiding-it
• Rachel ViforJ on negative-gearing-tax-breaks-could-finally-be-tightened-in-the-may-budget-what-options-are-on-the-table
• Saul Eslake on cgt-capital-gains-discounts-tax-australia
• Imogen Richards on banning-protest-slogans-wont-end-antisemitism-we-need-to-understand-the-complex-forces-driving-it
• Greg Jericho on inflation-rba-interest-rate-rise-reserve-bank-australia-abs
• Stella Huangfu on australias-inflation-surge-just-made-an-rba-rate-rise-more-likely
• Andrea Carson and Dianna Bossin on albanese-governments-latest-attempt-to-make-tech-giants-pay-for-journalism-is-needed-but-carries-big-risks
• Sean Andrews on ocean-much-more-backdrop-australia-s-security
• Keiran Hardy on royal-commission-report-doesnt-help-us-start-making-sense-of-bondi-terror-attack
• Se Park on albanese-is-prioritising-politics-over-the-responsible-handling-of-isis-families-setting-a-dangerous-precedent
• Kvin Morrison on australia-isnt-getting-a-fair-share-of-tax-on-gas-exports-queensland-has-shown-how-to-raise-the-bar
• Rod Sims on making-tech-giants-pay-for-news-was-a-success-the-first-time-around-it-can-be-done-again

OZ Climate

• ill-sign-you-drill-state-puts-oil-and-gas-project-on-fast-track-one-day-after-calling-in-another-big-battery
  
• how-i-shocked-my-20-year-old-gas-bbq-back-to-life-with-an-electric-conversion
  
• wind-solar-and-battery-projects-at-record-high-but-most-stuck-in-funding-supply-chain-and-other-bottlenecks
  
• wind-solar-and-battery-projects-at-record-high-but-most-stuck-in-funding-supply-chain-and-other-bottlenecks
  
• aemo-looks-to-evs-data-centres-and-industry-to-help-ease-overload-of-rooftop-pv-in-middle-of-day
  
• cheaper-home-batteries-2-0-how-the-rebate-changes-will-affect-prices-and-consumer-choices 
  
• push-for-high-fixed-network-charges-could-kill-the-market-for-home-batteries-just-when-they-are-needed
  
• diesel-consumption-shows-the-decline-in-coal-a-specific-symptom-of-a-broader-need-for-renewal
  
• cant-recycle-solar-this-local-business-is-making-millions-from-copper-aluminium-sales
  
• batteries-both-big-and-small-have-reshaped-the-grid-and-forced-wholesale-prices-down-aemo-says 
  
• when-can-i-get-a-job-community-leaders-say-coal-country-ready-and-waiting-for-offshore-wind
  
• equitable-gas-exit-or-costly-death-spiral-new-report-says-the-choice-is-now-up-to-governments
  
• push-for-high-fixed-network-charges-could-kill-the-market-for-home-batteries-just-when-they-are-needed
  
• australias-sliding-doors-moment-from-dig-and-ship-to-trusted-renewables-transition-partner
  
• solar-and-battery-households-help-grid-by-importing-more-during-day-and-exporting-more-in-evening-peaks
  
• claims-of-huge-new-blow-outs-to-the-snowy-2-0-bill-are-just-plain-wrong
  
• Graham Readfearn on queenslands-renewable-energy-whiplash-how-the-shift-from-coal-stalled-in-australias-most-polluting-state
• Robyn Eckersly on why-the-coalitions-lurch-to-the-right-is-bad-for-the-climate
• Tony Wood on why-australia-has-to-boost-fuel-supply-and-electrify-transport
• Mike Foley and Nic Toscano on australia-s-battery-boom-has-doubled-in-a-year-and-is-rewiring-the-energy-grid
• Peter Hartcher on how-power-from-the-people-carbon-dates-the-opposition

Northern America

• institutional economics on war-and-the-second-moment-in-us-equities
• James Piazza on latest-attack-threatening-president-trump-reflects-rising-political-violence-in-us
• Missy Ryan et al on iran-war-vance-hegseth-trump
• Eric Kramer on europe-ukraine-and-iran-and-trumps-impaired-emotional-cognitive-relationship-to-negative-consequences
• Tyler Cowen on on-health-care-price-transparency-from-the-comments
• Kruggers on the-oil-squeeze-tightens , who-are-you-gonna-believe-trump-or-your-lying-eyes
• Jonathan Chait on trump-language-policing
• Fabio Bertoni on kash-patels-implausible-lawsuit-against-the-atlantic
• John Cassidy on the-lessons-from-jerome-powells-defiance-of-donald-trump
• Andrew Weissman on indictment-southern-poverty-law-center-splc
• Barbara MzQuade on james-comey-second-indictment-8647-trump 
• renew economy on us-predicts-stunning-80-gw-increase-in-big-solar-wind-and-battery-storage-in-next-year-despite-trump
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-louisiana-callais-gerrymandering-alito-voting-rights-act
• Richard Hasen on scotus-voting-rights-section-two-ruling-history-worst-century
• noahpinion on scoring-the-jensen-dwarkesh-debate
• Jeet Heer on trump-whcd-shooting-assassination-attempt
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-analysis-democracy-fail-alito-kagan
• Lisa Needham on blanche-comey-ballroom
• Ken White on the-comey-threat-indictment-is-a-grave-embarrassment-to-the-united-states-department-of-justice-and-the-rule-of-law
• Stepheen Robinson on trump-cognitive-state

Europe

• David Ignatious on russia-putin-threat-europe-nato-raises-questions-about-trump Thanks Nick
• Lauren Cassidy on chernobyl-at-40-secret-stasi-files-reveal-extent-of-soviet-misinformation-campaign-over-nuclear-disaster
• David Marples on forty-years-after-the-chernobyl-disaster-its-legacy-still-resonates
• Jim Smith on chernobyls-wildlife-the-real-story-isnt-the-presence-of-radiation-its-the-absence-of-humans
• Paul Whitely on UK prime-ministers-have-always-faced-political-scandals-so-why-cant-they-weather-them-now
• Lisa Martin on fickle-iceland-geopolitical-pickle

Asia

• Barno Nnouri and Inderjeet Parda on middle-east-conflict-looks-increasingly-like-a-war-nobody-can-win
• Aniello Iannone on taiwan-s-deeper-vulnerability-politics-home
• Gemima Ware on how-israels-history-has-shaped-the-way-it-wages-war
• Lowell Bastista on china-remaking-south-china-sea-return-island-building 
• Manny Maung on myanmar-s-authoritarian-creep 
• Grace Stanhope on japan-charting-new-course-development-looking-wrong-direction
• Gokcay Baibi on could-the-strait-of-malacca-be-the-next-global-flashpoint
• Isaac Chotiner on donald-trumps-lose-lose-negotiations-with-iran
• Javed Noorani and Lynee O'Donnell on afghanistan-surrendering-its-mineral-wealth-its-future
• Micheel Cunningham on beijing-intensifies-diplomatic-isolation-taiwan-s-president
• Khang Vu on south-korea-no-longer-holds-cards-against-north
• home and away on special-edition-on-iran-going-straight-on-the-strait
• Danny Citrinowicz on how-war-saved-iranian-regime 
• Richard Nephew on let-iran-defeat-itself
• Rafeef Ziadah on gaza-six-months-of-ceasefire-have-left-the-territory-in-rubble-and-little-vision-for-the-future-of-its-people

Wonk

• Brad De Long on not-my-john-hicks-lecture-john-hicks-the-apostate ,a-comment-on-noah-smiths-the-moderately-easy-problem-of-conciousness
• wonk watch on utopia-and-the-problem-of-steering-blind Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value on when-i-hear-viewpoint-diversity thanks Nick
• 80000 hours on how-scary-is-claude-mythos Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on a-30mn-lesson-in-patience
• noahpinion on why-shoplifting-is-bad , the-moderately-easy-problem-of-consciousness 
• the conversable economist on world-war-trade
• Kai Riemer and Sandra Peter on meta-and-microsoft-have-joined-the-tech-layoff-tsunami-but-is-ai-really-to-blame
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-price-update
• Miyon Joseph on misdiagnosis-middle-power-cooperation
• James Cross on the-uae-is-leaving-the-opec-oil-cartel-what-could-that-mean-for-oil-prices
• Kristian Ulrichsrn on uaes-opec-exit-has-been-long-in-the-works-and-may-mark-the-beginning-of-a-gulf-realignment
• Alex Tabarrok on capitalism-and-modernity
• Mauro Lubrano on when-technology-becomes-target-political-violence
• Abraham Numbogu and Kaveh Madani on the-race-to-mine-critical-minerals-for-ai-and-clean-energy-is-creating-sacrifice-zones-that-harm-water-and-health-of-worlds-poor
• uneasy money on ayek-and-dworkin-on-the-meaning-of-discretion

General

• Krystal Tolley on mozambique-sky-island-expeditions-found-4-new-species-of-chameleon-already-at-risk-from-forest-loss
• Tyler Cowen on more-on-sir-thomas-gresham-from-my-email
• Mark Connick on how-2-men-smashed-through-a-marathon-barrier-long-thought-unbreakable
• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-blue-angels-devil-hands
• the pursuit of liberalism on is bob dylan a liberal Thanks Tyler

Climate

• skeptical science on climatetrunk-the-really-big-picture-in-four-pictures , how-strong-can-hurricanes-get , new_research
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on is-oil-king-again-chinas-surging-cleantech-exports-show-the-opposite-is-true
• Bryan Walsh on climate-change-coal-solar-renewable-power
• Alexandra Siqueira on the-cradle-of-earths-rich-ocean-life-was-a-massive-coral-reef-system-20-million-years-ago

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• cdc-update
  
• blogging-and-writing-style
  
• hes-a-music-educator-evaluating-k-12-music-education-systems-and-he-wants-someone-to-look-at-his-measurements-and-statistics
  
• why-isnt-it-possible-to-play-a-fun-and-serious-game-of-poker-not-for-money
  
• should-french-pollsters-be-using-mrp
  
• hey-try-out-the-rmet-the-reading-the-mind-in-the-eyes-test
  
• what-bothered-me-with-the-conversation-of-jay-bhattacharya-and-emily-oster
  
• survey-statistics-exploded-logit
  
• taking-one-more-swing-at-the-foolish-nudgelords-who-associate-the-soviet-union-with-environmental-protection 
  
• show-me-science 
  
• study retracted

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• april reads
• Rob Henerson on mr-nobody-from-nowhere Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-58
• Martin Kear on dignity-and-resolve-francesca-albaneses-when-the-world-sleeps-humanises-palestinian-lives

Vox Wonk

• when-privacy-protects-excludes-hidden-costs-data-restrictions-digital-lending 
  
• challenging-inequalities-how-we-got-stuck-and-where-we-go-next
  
• using-global-shocks-laboratory-study-executive-pay 
  
• why-liquidity-evaporates-when-it-most-needed
  
• geopolitical-oil-price-shocks-why-these-shocks-hit-harder 
  
• when-public-money-multiplies-and-when-it-does-not-guide-catalytic-effect-blended
  
• reconfiguring-europe-fractured-global-economy-florence-report
  

A rate rise is inevitable

 The March CPI was released yesterday.

Here are a few reaction:

• Greg Jericho
• Stella Huangfu
• Mark the Graph

I reject Jericho's argument and am fully in agreement with both Huangfu and Mark the Graph.

Why you ask?

I am old enough to remember the oil shocks of the 1970s and 80s. ( so is John Quiggin). I reemember the second and third round effects that embedded inflation that took years ( a decade?) to reduce and then it took a nasty recession.

I favour rates rising to 4.5%.

An education lesson for Chris Kenny

 Chris Kenny is allegedly a journalist on sky after dark. He is frequently wrong such as on global warming but sometimes gets it right like on Aboriginal rights.

He believes Jimmy Kimmel was alleging that Trump be asssisnated when he made his comedic statement .

Let us bring into context a few things which somehoow he missed.

• first of all Kimmel made his joke on late thursday night US ttime. The trumps and then their apolif gists did not react until monsay. huh. Are they that thick it takes that long to digest the joke.
• second Trump is almost 80 and very fat and eats very badly. She is 56 remembering he has traded in his earlier two models.  Even trying to reduce this by drugs is quite problematic
• We know courtesy of the Wolf suit she has a different apartment in New york to her husband where she sleeps.
• The couple are famous for not showing any affection towards each other.
• lastly Kimmel is well known for making comedic statements on his late night show

How could a 'jopurnalist' not know any of this indeed why did kenny take ssol ong to be affronted by kimmel?

Mark the Graph on fire

 If you are not reading Mark the Graph then you are missing out on something special.

I'h here to help.

• stagflation
  
• stagflation-lead-in-australias-saddle  
• inflation-causes-diagnosis-and-cures  
  

I wil warn you they are lenghty articles but are well worth reading.