A sad anniversary

 It is now 4 years since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Originally most 'experts' thought Russia would have a quick victory and Ukraine would become a vassal state. This proved wrong and ukraine proved to be a formidable foe.They have proved to be both industrious and very flexible.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine then they began the hostilities. It is impossible to argue Ukraine began this fight.

An expanding NATO was never a problem either as it is, lome most treaties, a DEFENSIVE treaty. you can only call on other members if someone attacks your country.

Russia is not a great military power. Their tactics are poor and they do not appear to learn from any defeats. Their economy is in very bad shape thus Putin is conning everyone about peace talks. He has to gain a lot of territory politically.

It is interesting that Estonia recently wrote about Russia if Putin is deposed and it is worse than now!!

The western world should fully support Ukraine so it  defeats Russia. Biden was way too timid and Trump is a Russian agent in acts if not in words.

No-one knows how much longer this war will last.

Postscript:

I should have added we as a nation should have given them out FA-18s. They are still okay, we are not using them and they are much easier to make airfields for!

Bob Dylan again

Two weeks ago I went to the local pub and had a parmy with my youngest son and heard mozambique for the first time since the glory days of doublejay rock.

yet again I prefer the studio version

Around the Traps 20/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Antony Green on will-the-coalition-face-messy-by-election-in-sussan-leys-seat-of-farrer , farrer-a-liberal-or-national-seat
• John Hawkins on want-to-know-whats-really-going-on-in-australian-politics-a-four-way-tussle-in-farrer-may-tell-us
• Hal Pawson on 55-000-extra-social-housing-homes-are-being-built-but-a-new-study-shows-that-boom-still-falls-short
• Michelle Grattan on who-is-angus-taylor-and-could-he-cut-it-as-opposition-leader , angus-taylor-appoints-tim-wilson-as-part-of-a-new-look-liberal-economic-team
• Se Youn Park on australia-has-ruled-out-repatriation-for-isis-families-this-isnt-a-safe-or-coherent-plan
• Greg Jericho on real-wages-fall-australia-workers-economy
• Christopher Hoy on real-wages-have-gone-backwards-even-earning-100-000-isnt-what-it-used-to-be
• Terence Cheng on private-health-insurance-premiums-will-rise-4-41-this-year-but-is-it-justified
• Jennifer Parker on chinese-warships-australians-never-got-debate

OZ Climate

• no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-project-promises-ultra-light-touch 
  
• if-were-going-to-hold-an-inquiry-into-the-life-cycle-of-solar-why-not-coal-and-gas 
  
• no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-projhttps://reneweconomy.com.au/no-concrete-no-b-doubles-major-solar-and-battery-project-promises-ultra-light-touch/ect-promises-ultra-light-touch
  
• we-dont-doubt-ourselves-fortescues-race-to-real-zero-and-the-radical-rethink-behind-it
  
• solar-and-wind-titans-reboot-push-for-huge-inland-renewables-zone-as-least-regret-pathway-to-coal-free-nsw
  
• records-tumble-as-nine-wind-and-solar-projects-1-gw-of-batteries-join-grid-in-just-three-months
  
• can-inverter-based-technologies-do-the-system-security-job-of-big-spinning-machines
  
• if-green-iron-is-the-future-for-whyalla-steelworks-locking-in-costly-and-dirty-gas-is-a-dead-end
  
• could-the-aemc-be-kinda-right-about-fixed-network-costs-late-submission-lobs-curve-ball-into-debate
• Rod Sims and Rebecca Burdon on don-t-be-gaslit-on-climate-there-s-no-going-back-on-this-energy-transition
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on dramatic-changes-in-upper-atmosphere-are-responsible-for-recent-droughts-and-bushfires-new-research

Northern America

• institutional economics on productivity-and-inflation-then-and-now
• persuasion on the-democrats-are-still-lost Thanks Nick
• Gilad Edelman on epstein-files-guilt-association Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on who-is-paying-the-trump-tariffs , turning-our-back-on-clean-energy , how-the-kakistocracy-became-a-quackistocracy ,billionaires-gone-wild , ieepa-ieepa-ieepa
• Christian Paz on epstein-trump-bondi-rogan-conspiracy-files-release-young-men 
• Brad De Long on from-plato-to-nato-to-maga
• Gibbs Knotts and Christopher Cooper on how-jesse-jackson-was-shaped-by-southern-segregation-and-went-on-to-reshape-american-political-life
• James Trapani on misreading-monroe-doctrine-creating-true-gulf-americas
• Menzie Chinn on output-gaps-again , guest-contribution-usury-laws-and-trumps-proposed-cap-on-credit-card-interest-rates
• Eric Levitz on trump-economy-jobs-inflation-gas-prices-polls
• David Frum on mona-charen-conservatism
• home and Away on bombs-bad-bunny-and-the-biathlon
• Alex Tabbarok on the-cassidy-report-on-the-fda
• Steve Benen on white-house-eyes-punishments-for-economists-who-told-the-truth-about-tariffs-consumers
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-new-york-gerrymandering-williams-malliotakis , supreme-court-trump-tariffs-learning-resources
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-doj-confession-new-jersey-court-deportations-ice , trump-bully-supreme-court-tariffs-roberts-barrett-gorsuch
• Jordana Salaama on the-chaos-of-an-ice-detention
• Ruxandra Teslo on the-30-year-success-story-the-us Thanks Tyler
• Ted Dehaven on trumps-slush-fund-venezuela-oil-gaza-board-of-peace-tariffs
• James Hamilton on gdp-continues-to-grow

Europe

• Lisa Martin on denmark-plays-royal-flush-trump-greenland-saga
• Jennifer Mathers on ukraine-if-elections-are-held-this-spring-who-might-be-the-next-president
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-s-population-hardest-stretch-war
• Stephen Kinsella on the-best-way-to-understand-the-irish-economy Thanks Tyler
• Henry Storey on european-industry-faces-existential-china-challenge
• Francesca Jackson on why-has-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-been-arrested-and-what-legal-protections-do-the-royal-family-have
• Jo Coghlin et al on could-andrew-mountbatten-windsors-arrest-bring-down-the-british-monarchy
• Nikola Mikovic on peace-ukraine-still-out-reach

Asia

• Shahad Uddin on bangladesh-nationalist-party-secures-victory-in-first-election-since-sheikh-hasinas-ousting
• Christian Emery on trump-insists-iran-talks-must-continue-but-military-action-is-not-off-the-table
• Adam Hawkins on what-thailands-election-means-for-the-future-of-the-country-and-its-beleaguered-pro-democracy-forces
• Amin Saikal on israel-is-accelerating-its-creeping-annexation-of-the-west-bank-can-donald-trump-stop-it
• Intifar Chowdhury on bangladesh-charts-new-multipolar-course
• Sanchari Ghosh on india-s-fleet-review-was-much-diplomacy-pageantry

Wonk

• the argument on the-postliberal-war-on-economics Thanks Nick
• the preamble on what-if-representative-democracy-isn't-the-only-way Thanks Nick
• jacobin on mann-doctor-faustus-fascism-far-right Thanks Nick
• George Orwell on not-counting-niggers Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on you-are-no-longer-the-smartest-type-of-thing-on-earth , updated-thoughts-on-ai-risk
• Chris Bertram on runcimans-rawls
• Hamid Ali et al on the-peer-review-system-is-breaking-down-heres-how-we-can-fix-it
• Tyler Cowen on taxing-beta-exempting-alpha-a-benchmark-based-inheritance-regime
• Kevin Foster on a-history-of-assassination-reveals-how-targeted-killings-became-an-extension-of-state-power
• Alex Tabbarok on minimum-wages-for-gig-work-cant-work
• Shameek Godara on can-quad-regain-momentum-after-india-us-reset
• the conversable economist on some-evidence-on-ai-productivity-and-labor-markets
• Aiden Warren on new-start-expired-now-what-global-nuclear-stability
• Monique Taylor on london-rules-slow-horses-modern-security-state
• slow boring on ai-progress-is-giving-me-writers-block thanks Brad
• Chris Dillow on economic-growth-as-social-change
• Maria O'Sullivan on with-more-restrictive-laws-across-the-country-how-can-we-protect-the-right-to-protest

General

• Jenny Graves on men-lose-their-y-chromosome-as-they-age-scientists-thought-it-didnt-matter-but-now-were-learning-more
• Caroline Gurvich et al on what-causes-depression-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect

Climate

• real climate on epas-final-ruling-on-co2
• Robyn Eckersly on trump-has-scrapped-the-long-standing-legal-basis-for-tackling-climate-emissions
• Sharon Thawaney on climate-diplomacy-has-moved-beyond-days-single-grand-bargain
• Owen Atkin et al on intense-heatwaves-directly-threaten-crops-and-native-species-heres-what-we-can-do
• ocean acidification on the-silent-shift-how-ocean-acidification-and-rising-temperature-affect-marine-organisms
• noahpinion on china-is-killing-the-fish
• skeptical science on new_research
• Moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-up-004-from-december

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-stupidity-the-criminal-vandalism-the-wanton-destruction-of-information-involved-in-dichotomisation
  
• funniest-predatory-journal-pitch-ever
  
• hanging-out-an-observational-study
  
• the-atlantic-monthly-march-1947
  
• survey-statistics-gallups-presidential-approval-ratings
  
• fitting-a-model-to-estimate-the-seats-votes-curve-back-in-the-bad-old-days-before-we-had-stan
  
• the-80-power-lie
  
• what-do-socrates-herb-simon-and-andrew-gelman-have-in-common-a-love-of-the-oral-tradition
• from junk science to junk medical treatments
•  staschat on cancer-hates-mornings-too , out-of-warranty
• Kaiser Fung on data-hunting-on-the-radar-chart , as-usual-no-ones-doping

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Christos Tsiolkas on melania Thanks Nick
• Jodi McAlister on is-wuthering-heights-actually-romantic-heathcliff-would-say-no

Vox Wonk

• silver-lining-european-energy-crisis-energy-efficiency-productivity-and-potential
  
• school-supervised-edtech-support-produces-massive-learning-gains-khan-academy-field
  
• how-ai-affecting-productivity-and-jobs-europe
  
• economics-kalshi-prediction-market
  
• eu-capital-markets-reform-should-focus-innovation-investment
  
• rethinking-existing-tax-schemes-political-giving-and-charitable-donations
  

What is Trump hiding?

 I am stumped at Trump's role in curtailing the Epstein files.

I have previously said I cannot see any evidence he broke the law here and I do not see Trump having sex with minors.

Releasing the epstein files alah the legislation is a no-brainer. Of course there will be embarrassments but people will forget them quickly. Getting it over and done with makes political sense however trump is doing the exact opposite. This has two main problems for trump.

1. It keeps Epstein in the headlines
2. People now think Trump and epstein are interwoven and has done 'wrong' things.

Trump is not very intelligent indeed quite the opposite. He is easily the most low IQ President we have seen in out lifetime. His actions on this merely proves this.

Wow Epstein in 2017 said Trump had too much orange and was suffering from dementia however this has vanished without a trace!!

Taylor's new lineup

 Angus Taylor announced his new shadow lineup. See Michelle Grattan.

I have reservations. In no particular order here they are.

• Taylor was a very poor minister and just as bas shadow treasurer. Why on earth does anyone think he can succeed as Opposition Leader?
• He appointed Tim Wilson as shadow treasurer. The only person who thinks wilson is impressive is wilson.
• He wants to cut immigration. This will impact both skilled labour and universities. There is no evidence this has penetrated the Opposition as yet. One Nation can be  moorons. the LNP cannot!
• Changing the leader does not solve the major problems for the opposition.
• The structural deficit is about $20b. In what time do they think they can eliminate this?
• They have few seats in the cities primarily because they are not seen as fair dinkum on climate change.  One nation and the nationals following them will ensure this continues.

The present government is not impressive.They are very timid thus we need an opposition that is ready for government. We do not have it now and it seems unlikely for a while.

Farrer could be interesting

 John Hawkins says Farrer could tell us where australian politics is heading in the near future.

Antony Green tells us all about the lecorate HERE and HERE.

We shall get a four way fight. The Liberals who currently hold it  after they won it when Tim fischer retired. The Nationals who want it back although it was a Liberal seat before that.. One Nation who believe they are on a roll and an Independent ( no I do not believe two independents).

Okay let us make a guess. Green preferences will go mostly to the ALP unless they think they can crown the Independent.  One Nation will gain at the expense of both the Liberals and also the National party but mainly the latter.

ALP  preferences will go to the independent. This will put her into second place. The National preferences wil ggo mainly to One nation.

The Liberal vote will be down because of the Liberals knifing Ley and antipathy towards Taylor. some votes will go to one nation but also towards the independent.

Thus the contest on final preferences will again be between the Liberal candidate and the Independent. Thus I would not be surprised if the Independent wins however I say that with no confidence.

The West Wing

 I am using youtube quite a bit these days. The rest is history, the rest is politics, legal and political issues in the USA , the invasio0n of ukraine as well as music makes it essential viewing.

One thing that came up out of nowhere was the west wing.

It was one of my favourite series.

Fabulous cast, sensational writing, characters that are good and bad. I could go on but you get the point.

If you have not watched the serries then do so. It is clearly the BEST US series I have ever watched.

Here is a sample