Interest rates

 I am not writing about interest rates tomorrow but my beloved socceroos games agin Brazil.

The RBA will raise interest rates today by 25 points. It has too because it has, like many of us, underestimated the inflationary pressures in the economy.

Now I do believe the budget should at least be in balance however it is only 1% of GDP. People who keep on talking about spending ignore taxation. They also ignore the structural deficit is falling not rising.

If this was the key to inflation rising then the USA should have massive inflation given their deficit is over 5% and their structural deficit is much larger and rising!

I suspect the economy will slow and thus inflation will drop next year at worst.

I still believe it needed 'Bernie Fraser' to replace Phillip Lowe. The RBA got it badly wrong on how to combat covid yet Chalmers did not introduce any new 'thinking'

A couple of things

 Donald Trump

I cannot believe what i am reading. Trump was a convicted criminal when he was elected President. He was found guilty of fraud, the company he heads was found guilty of fraud, he was found guilty of sexual assault and he 'changed' his book keeping so people could not find out he paid a porn actress. In other words both Judges and juries found trump to be a liar.

and some people are shocked that he has a lawless administration.

Oh and 2024 was the only time Trump was a winner in overall terms and has never shown he actually has the political touch either.

Polls in america

There is some very wierd polling going on. Will texas get a democrat governor. some polls say yes others say not a chance. Plus there are states like Kansas, Florida, South Carolina that appear close. It is fantastic for political junkies like me.

Interest rates.

I do hope someone who believes government spending is causing inflation ( and conveniently forget about taxation) tell us why the USA do not have way higher interest rates given that Our deficit is around 1% of GDP and theirs is over 5%!

AI

I have yet to see why and how AI will drive much higher productivity rates. The other thing AI subverted a number of sites right around the world. Imagine the damage that could be done by bad actors.

and why isn't anyone talking about how AI companies are helping push up interest rates and how data centres are pushing up inflation?

Around the Traps 25/9/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Long on bill-kelty-one-nations-giant-tax-avoidance-scheme Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on thirty-years-of-australian-monetary-policy-in-six-charts, the-era-of-cheap-money-is-over
• Peter McDonald on the-governments-migration-policy-prioritises-knee-jerk-politics-over-careful-planning
• Don Gunasekeara on will-el-nino-send-food-prices-soaring-this-summer
• Alicia Herrero on the-trade-climate-has-already-changed-canberra-is-still-adjusting-too-slowly
• Alan Gamlan on canada-is-managing-migration-without-taking-a-sledgehammer-approach-heres-how-australia-can-too
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on australia-in-the-2060s-an-optimistic-outlook-dominates-budget-forecasts-in-the-intergenerational-report 
• Vincent Hurley on australia-is-responding-to-domestic-violence-after-the-event-not-preventing-it-from-happening
• Nick Garvin and Elyse Dwyer on will-investors-be-better-or-worse-off-under-new-housing-tax-changes-see-what-18-years-of-data-reveals
• Greg Jericho on single-couple-or-family-not-all-australian-middle-income-earners-are-equal
• Inga Lass on many-australians-are-overqualified-for-their-jobs-which-comes-at-a-price-new-data-shows
• Michelle Grattan on danielle-woods-blunt-message-to-politicians-dont-undermine-public-trust-by-attacking-institutions
• James Curran on the-trouble-with-albanese-calling-china-a-hegemon
• Meena Jha on what-does-the-openai-medicare-hack-reveal-about-australias-cyber-security

OZ Climate

• renewables-hit-more-than-80-pct-of-grid-demand-for-first-time-despite-heavy-throttling-of-wind-and-solar
  
• we-dont-simply-see-turbines-graziers-say-hosting-wind-farms-eases-pressure-on-land-and-helps-prepare-for-drought
  
• explainer-who-will-set-australias-rules-for-home-energy-devices-such-as-solar-plug-in-batteries-and-evs
  
• nsw-takes-lead-on-mandatory-solar-panel-recycling-as-ministers-call-for-urgent-action-on-rising-tide-of-waste 
  
• like-spinning-42-plates-in-the-air-at-the-same-time-how-this-impossible-project-broke-australias-wind-drought
  
• huge-landowner-led-wind-project-seeks-green-tick-despite-looming-threat-to-transmission-link
  
• hold-the-front-page-cost-of-clean-energy-transition-just-shrank-by-100-billion 
  
• a-turning-point-for-grid-forming-inverters-in-australias-grid-transition-plan
  
• why-australias-energy-transition-needs-quantum-in-the-mix
  
• coalitions-pursuit-of-agent-orange-climate-policies-will-deliver-an-investment-apocalypse-soon-enough
  
• Adam Morton on the-coalition-says-it-wants-cheaper-power-not-ideology-but-its-evidence-free-plan-is-ideology

Northern America

• institutional economics on geoeconomics-and-the-end-of-the-american-age
• Ephrat Lini on kenneth-feinberg-sept-11-compensation Thanks Nick
• Andrew Gelman on living-on-the-edge-aggressive-mediocrity-at-the-summit-of-americas-intellectual-culture Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on economic-size-and-economic-power, why-does-everyone-hate-trumps-tariffs, of-donald-and-diesel, will-crypto-crash-the-blue-wave, its-underwear-on-the-outside-time, donald-the-deadbeat-does-diesel
• Lisa Rubin on if-trump-and-others-violate-a-courts-order-on-the-kennedy-center-would-there-be-any-real-consequences 
• noahpinion on how-we-can-beat-china
• Brad De Long on warsh-triangulating-not-confused, real-price-diesel-oil-shocks-republican-wars
• Zack Beauchamp on settler-terrorism-west-bank-mike-huckabee 
• Tom Nicholls on trumps-arch-arsenal
• the conversable economist on us-manufacturing-jobs-the-long-transition , a-us-federal-budget-chartbook
• Harry Litman on the-doj-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-united-nations-speech
• Paul Waldman on susan-collins-fbi-investigation-trump
• Mathew Ricketson on trump-has-banned-more-media-and-started-his-own-tv-channel-in-the-process-he-risks-further-eroding-american-democracy
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-impeachment-massie-gop
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-xi-china-summit

Europe

• Alasdair McCallum and Pete Lentini on russias-parliamentary-elections-will-not-be-a-referendum-on-the-ukraine-war-or-anything-really
• Thomas Wright on europe-afd-far-right
• Tyler Cowen on uk-productivity-higher-than-we-had-thought
• Shannon Brincat and Juan Caceres on trump-declares-victory-in-greenland-but-the-deal-exposes-a-deeper-crisis-of-trust
• Mark Pierce on pyrrhus-petraeus-putin-and-the-perils-of-ending-a-war
• mainly macro on how-should-government-meet-its-golden-rule-when-debt-interest-increases
• Amy McCauliffe on russia-ukraine-war-is-accelerating-the-dangerous-race-toward-fully-autonomous-drones

Asia

• Andrew Orchard on child-nisa-japan-s-attempt-to-redirect-asia-s-generational-wealth
• Graeme Wood on israel-secular-religious-divide
• Rodger Shanahan on israel-may-soon-learn-occupation-and-devastation-are-no-guarantee-of-security
• Richard Brody on naza-puts-israel-face-to-face-with-the-war-in-gaza

Wonk

• Melanie Mitchell on misleading-metaphors-and-real-risks Thanks Nick
• Raymond Geuess on the-carapace-cracks Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-update
• Tim Harford on why-the-story-of-the-vegetable-lamb-was-believed
• Brad De Long on crosspost-nick-gruen-hobbes-spin-bullshit-public-reason, needed-better-metaphors-for-ai-than-machine-god
• Stan Karanasios on calls-for-global-regulation-of-ai-are-growing-what-exactly-could-it-look-like 
• Toby Walsh on how-would-ai-actually-kill-all-humans-here-are-the-top-5-scenarios
• Lurion De Mello on as-renewed-chaos-grips-the-oil-market-one-country-is-keeping-global-prices-down-by-reducing-demand
• Daniel Flitton on p4m-a-new-club-for-middle-powers-and-the-same-old-habits
• Dimples Lyong on hostile-influence-peddling-slopaganda-style
• noahpinion on the-problems-with-utilitarianism
• Erika Feller on the-un-is-facing-a-crisis-of-trust-and-possible-bankruptcy-its-new-leader-will-have-an-enormous-challenge
• Chris Bertram on into-the-darkness
• Nic Bisley on the-other-summit-season-brics-and-the-sco-have-spotted-a-gap
• slow boring on the-ai-apocalypse-canon-and-why-it-matters

General

• David O'Hara on libraries Thanks Nick
• get down and shruti on psalm-happy-birthday-coltrane Thanks Tyler

Climate

• moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0136-from-july
• the conversable economist on energy-and-carbon-emissions-some-global-ground-truths
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-drives-grazer-niche-convergence-and-trophic-homogenization-in-benthic-communities
• skeptical science on rapid-himalaya-warming-geohazard-cascades
• David Cappell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-only-10th-lowest
• Luwei Yang and Callum Shakespeare on earths-tides-are-shaped-by-more-than-the-moon-and-theyre-changing-as-the-planet-warms
• Hannah Kessenich et al on septembers-ozone-hole-was-the-biggest-in-20-years-the-warning-signs-appeared-months-ago

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats )

• meritocracy-to-morrow-and-meritocracy-yesterday-but-never-meritocracy-to-day 
  
• the-immigration-and-nationality-act-of-1952
  
• how-did-it-go-this-prediction-from-ten-years-ago-about-chinese-fertility-in-2026
  
• do-high-school-students-have-to-work-harder-nowadays 
  
• phonics-is-a-fad-but-its-also-good-so-we-should-do-it-anyway-even-though-it-will-probably-disappoint-people
  
• survey-statistics-fat-bear-week-2026
  
• heres-a-causal-inference-problem-where-did-the-estimate-of-64-million-come-from-in-blake-lively-says-she-suffered-64-million-financial-fallout-from-justin-baldoni-conflict 
  
• junk-polls-and-junk-survey-research-they-go-together-so-well
  
• they were trying to convince everybody to have 3 kids
• Kaiser Fung on when-statistical-models-fail, whats-an-ad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Richard Parry on keeping-up-with-the-kims Thanks Nick
• Ved Shinde on reading-abbott-s-australia-from-abroad
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• new-jobs-140-years-data-why-ai-displacement-fear-overstated-and-what-worry-about 
  
• why-we-spend-so-much-time-meetings 
  
• beyond-trade-diversion-how-us-china-trade-war-reshaped-global-production 
  
• anatomy-rise-monetary-policy-and-post-covid-surge-long-term-interest-rates 
  
• building-resilience-global-financial-shocks-emerging-markets 
  
• productive-firms-can-better-spot-and-deploy-their-internal-talent 
  
• energy-transition-progress-and-challenges 
  
• how-data-centres-affect-electricity-prices-and-for-whom 
  
• quality-capital-allocation-europe
  

A couple of simple things to get rid of the deficit

 Our budget deficit is around 1% of GDP. (The US is over 5%!!)

Here are three policy action that could reduce that substantially but of course are politically difficult.

1. Get rid of the ridiculous subsidy to WA via the GST
2. impose a means test on all government programs
3. Take the NDIS back to its roots. Only those with physical disabilities get help.

Scott Morrison is responsible for the GST rot to WA. It is nothing short of a disgrace the richest State gets more money. Saul Eslake says this was the worst policy mistake of the 21st century. I agree. WA voters would not like it however

In some ways Albo has imitated John Howard. Howard brought in middle class welfare bigtime when the resources boom was taking off. Able has simply copied him without the boom. Our family should not have been subsidised in getting solar panels nor a battery.Taking away benefits always hurts the incumbent government.

We simply do not have the money to help everyone getting help via the NDIS. Only allowing those with physical disabilities would significantly reduce it cists, Again taking away benefits would entail political pain.

These are but three options but you can see the political problems involved. I am doubtful any party can do it and a revenue boost is our only hope.

Just what are Russia and China advising Iran

 Let's face it the US is stuck in its war against Iran.

Let us ignore for the moment most of the reasons for this but examine one important issue.

It is in Russia's interest for Iran to continue its battle with the USA. Hesgeth has no idea of drone warfare and thus the US is using very expensive missiles against drones. He would know what to do if he talked with Kiev!

China too would like this war to continue. With the US preoccupied with Iran and wasting ammunition and weapons there Taiwan looks very vulnerable.

Of course if the mid-terms goes badly for Trump then this is another bonus.

Thus do not expect lower petrol prices for some time.

A Blue wave is coming

 Time for me to put my gonads on the line.

I believe a blue wave is coming for a number of reasons.

Inflation is a large problem. the punters believed trump when he said he would cause a drop in prices. Instead prices rose. Initially from tariffs and then exacerbated by the war with Iran. This has also caused people to finally see Trump as the liar he is. He says prices are dropping and people know they are not.

The war in Iran is dreadfully unpopular principally because the reasons for the war were never enunciated and have led to a steep rise in petrol prices.

The increase in tariffs has lead to an increase in costs and local substitutes for imports are more expensive. It gets worse as a lot of capital equipment is hit by tariffs.

The Trumps have made a lot of money since Trump won the presidency. A lot of this has come about because of the Supreme courts decision on Presidential immunity. 

You also have a lot of billionaires involved directly or indirectly in this administration. This further highlights how distan Trump is from the ordinary voter.

Allied to this Trump is increasingly seen as out of touch. He is increasingly showing his age and his cognitive decline.

Voters also give Trump more power than they wanted originally and then change bigtime in the mid-terms to ensure there are some guardrails.This is exacerbated by Trump's blatant authoritarian instincts in his second term.

So there you have it. I would not be surprised if some states change which no-one expected.

A good time was had by all

 Last Friday was my 70th birthday ( so I am younger than john quiggin) and my wife decided we ( the family) should celebrate it at the Hunter Valley. we rented an airB&B at cessnock and it was great. In friday we had fantastic steaks from blayney and drunk it down with a 2008 toer shiraz and another wine I cannot remember from 2019.

I am thinking I really do not want to celebrate 80!

Briar ridge is the winery to visit if you go to the Hunter Valley