the Ashes post mortem

 No I am not going to talk about the rate rise as I having nothing to add to my previous note except there are more to come.

Why did the poms lose the Ashes so comprehensively? Let us go through the reasons.

There was no preparation. This is not just a lack of matches before the Ashes started but also a lack of understanding of wickets. In the previous Ashes they were bowler friendly and they kept on that way ever since. Bumrah appreciated them last season yet the POmmie seemed not to understand this.  In an irony of ironies they would have suited Ollie Robinson who was toiling away in grade cricket in sydney.  Carse was obviously injured after the tour of NZ. He reached 98 mph there yet the next english season was only bowling in the mid 80s.  Both Archer and Wood were injury prone.  They still had Woakes opening the bowling when they played India so they came here without a proven opening pair of bowlers.  You need to use a kookaburra from the first over as it stops swinging after about 30 overs.

They must have known Head loved short balls outside the offstump but they kept on bowling to him there. By the time they bowled short on the legstump where is vulnerable his eye was well and truly in. Atkinson is an accurate bowler in england but not here. Why? 

They also never thought clearly about spin bowling. Their first choice was never going to be successful and they had no 2nd choice!

Smith had a shocker of a series but that is simply bad luck. It could also mean poor coaching. His batting like others , seemed to show no lessons were learned at all.

The batting was lamentable.Usally either Crawley or Stoles gets a decent score. not here. They failed to understand what a no 3 is like. This meant joe Root came in time and time again when the ball was stil lswinging and thus he was vulnerable.

We have to talk about the first test. They had it and their mercy and lost. Mentally they were gone after that.

We had injuries and a suspect batting lineup but it didn't matter.

I suspect  we will learn nothing from the Ashes certainly SA will hope so.

They must have learnt not to play at balls angling towards slips and they do have bowlers ( and wickets) which may expose us.

We play SA, the kiwis and then India

what should the poms do? 

  I would not change the batting or Wikkie although I would not be surprised at another opener. The bowling would appear top be Archer, Tongue, Atkinson and Ahmed remembering they do have two decent spare time spinners in Root and Bethell.

poor OLD Gerry

 Gerry Henderson is getting older and sillier.

He likes to characterise people as left of centre or right of centre. No-one but no-one is in the centre. Thus he can characterise Ian Dunt as left of centre. Perhaps this is because he criticised the previous conservative government and is very critical of Reform. Perhaps Gerry missed his criticism of Starmer. Nevermind but calling him left of centre is absurd.

He doesn't like when journalists insist on politicians answer the question they ask. He says that is interrupting. If they do not do this they are 'soft' questions so he wins either way.  I wondered what he made of Sharri Markson's 'interview' of the Israeli PM, you know the indicted war criminal. He said nothing so I guess sometimes he likes 'soft' questions from the right people.

He didn't like Fitzsimmons questioning of Roberts on climate change. He alleged sneering. In his sneering reply he said Roberts had both an engineering degree and a MBA. He failed to mention his views on climate change. Funny about that.

I guess I should say in ending his big recruitment selection of the Sydney Institute was putting his wife on the payroll.

There was a time when he was a big supporter of refugees. Alas like other things this has diminished in his old age.

Is the US a failed state ?

 The USA is a lawless country.

Citizens are killed merely for demonstrating or helping people,, People are threatened for photographing public servants at 'work'. The President sues the very government he heads up.

HOWEVER Trump is very unpopular. The very issue he 'owned' he has gone vastly underwater on. It is clear why. Most people were happy for him to go after the undocumented migrants who were criminals, the murders and rapists so to speak. They were no happy for him to go after law abiding people serving and working in their community.

There was an implicit contract wit these people. if you are law abiding, go about your work and serve in your community then everything is fine. Trump has NOT done that. They have gone into selected areas and in a haphazard way rounded up anyone who looks or talks like and 'undocumented immigrant. It is a terrible way to do this. Most people rounded up are not criminals. Latinos who formerly backed trump on this policy have now turned on him and for good reason. It is both inhumane and racist hence why Stephen Miller supports it!

I continue to believe the mid-terms will again be bad for trump. If only because both he and his entourage are incompetent. Aslo the american people like a congress by democrats to put a stop on him.

And talking of Trump THIS is one of the better articles on him thanks to the cancelled  Nick Gruen.

Linda Rondstadt and the Stone Poneys

 Way back when I was only 11 this was the only hit this band had and set Linda Ronstadt on the road to fame.

This means this year she will be 80 !!  My she had a fantastic voice.

I feel it is a sad song. as is the photo compilation  Am I wrong?

Around the Traps 30/1/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on the-housing-wealth-that-isnt
• Bernard Keane on sussan-ley-nationals-david-littleproud-coalition-bondi Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on trump-aides-might-makes-right-doctrine-threatens-australia-and-new-zealands-claims Thanks Nick
• Linda Botterill on instead-of-a-marriage-the-coalition-should-be-an-on-again-off-again-affair
• David Lowe et al on opposition-to-moving-australia-day-from-january-26-is-hardening-new-research
• Kevin Bonham on dear-anti-preferencers-november-21st-for-australia-day
• Tony Barry on liberal-national-party-coalition-split-future
• Antony Green on statistics-on-preference-flows-between-the-coalition-and-one-nation
• John Hawkins on australian-inflation-jumps-adding-to-chances-of-an-rba-interest-rate-hike
• Grace Stanhope on conflict-prevention-or-conflict-avoidance-australia-s-foreign-policy
• Greg Jericho on why-25-potential-growth-is-wrong
• Keiran Hardy on what-is-extremism-and-how-do-we-decide

OZ Climate

• shared-solar-labors-free-power-plan-to-have-daily-cap-to-stop-abuse-by-ev-and-home-battery-owners
  
• total-transformation-of-the-australian-summer-climate-change-made-january-heatwaves-five-times-more-likely
  
• australias-first-offshore-wind-auction-set-for-august-after-nearly-one-year-delay
  
• buyer-beware-carbon-credit-platforms-repeating-ills-of-the-past
  
• batteries-and-solar-hybrids-dominate-relegating-wind-to-small-fraction-of-australias-renewable-pipeline 
  
• extraordinary-renewables-to-the-rescue-as-state-smashes-demand-records-in-unprecedented-heatwave
  
• the-future-for-gas-generation-do-we-need-it-and-in-what-form
  
• another-miserable-year-for-nuclear-power-as-renewables-surge
  
• landmark-moment-prices-plunge-as-renewables-supply-half-of-grid-batteries-surge-and-coal-hits-new-low
  
• worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-hits-remarkable-new-wind-and-solar-peak-of-91-1-pct-as-batteries-displace-coal-and-gas
  
• near-100-pct-renewable-electricity-for-australias-main-grid-is-achievable-and-affordable-year-4-update
  
• big-batteries-push-coal-and-gas-out-of-evening-peaks-and-then-get-to-eat-others-market-dinner
• Adam Morton on through-the-heatwave-haze-the-hypocrisy-of-australias-fossil-fuel-policy-shines-bright , australia-polluter-pays-levy-fossil-fuels-rod-sims-ross-garnaut-superpower-institute-report , australias-grid-now-relies-on-renewable-energy-as-much-as-coal-those-who-doubted-it-look-foolish
• Steve Turton on where-did-southern-australias-record-breaking-heatwave-come-from
• Tess Parker and Adam Wallace on anatomy-of-a-heatwave-how-a-cyclone-humid-air-and-atmospheric-waves-drove-brutal-heat-in-the-southeast

Northern America

• Dylan Mathews on pro-social-media thanks Nick
• Cameron Peters on minneapolis-fatal-shooting-border-patrol-ice-alex-pretti
• Alex Kirschner on minneapolis-ice-shooting-today-alex-pretti-trump-stephen-miller
• Fred Kaplan on europe-trump-weakness-taco-greenland-davos , trump-peace-board-gaza-one-billion-dollars
• noahpinion on what-happens-if-the-world-pulls-its=money-out-of-america , let-the-chinese-cars-in
• the conversable economist on how-slavery-held-back-growth-looking-across-the-river
• David Noriega and Kay Guerroro on federal-agents-shoot-drivers-weaponized-vehicle
• Zack Beauchamp on minneapolis-alex-pretti-ice-cbp-killing-shooting-video
• Kruggers on monsters , was-this-a-murder-too-far , how-canada-became-an-enemy , minnesota-is-the-beginning-of-an-american-colour-revolution , the-world-files-for-economic-divorce-from-america , a-bad-heir-day-at-the-fed
• Brad De Long on crosspost-sarah-jeong-it-doesnt-matter-if-alex-pretti-had-a-gun , dan-davies-demonstrates-for-immigrants
• Andrew Gawthorpe on shooting-of-alex-pretti-in-minneapolis-has-put-americas-gun-lobby-at-odds-with-the-white-house
• Jonathan Rauch on america-fascism-trump-maga-ice
• Tyler Cowen on should-you-resign
• Ian Millhiser on ice-minneapolis-federal-court-charges-contempt-schlitz , supreme-court-california-gerrymander-texas-tangipa-newsom
• Dahlia Lithwick on minnesota-protests-ice-donald-trump-taco
• Adam Serwer on the-neighbors-defending-minnesota-from-ice
• Ta-Nehisi Coates on homeland-ice-minneapolis-trump
• renew economy on fossil-fuels-fail-during-massive-winter-storm-in-us-as-21-gigawatts-goes-missing-in-big-freeze
• Christian Paz on ice-dhs-cbp-bovino-immigration-stephen-miller-kristi-noem-alex-pretti-nicole-good-mislead-truth
• Menzie Chinn on  kamin-sobel-termites-are-slowly-feasting-away-at-the-foundations-of-the-dollars-dominance
• Jeet Heer on alex-pretti-gun-second-amendment-trump
• Richard Hasen on trump-raid-georgia-election-site-2026-midterm
• Richard Haas on lethal-weapon-2

Europe

• Eric Van Rythoven on trumps-annexation-of-greenland-seemed-imminent-now-its-on-much-shakier-ground
• Sussan Kaplan and Genevieve Lemoine on greenlands-inuit-have-spent-decades-fighting-for-self-determination
• Brad De Long on three-significant-military-powers-on-the-european-contintent

Asia

• David Vallance on china-s-cyber-forces-are-impressive-growing
• Brad De Long on crosspost-adrian-monck-the-end-of-chinas-central -military-command
• Adam Simpson and Nicholas Farrelly on 5-years-on-from-the-juntas-coup-myanmars-flawed-elections-cant-unite-a-country-at-risk-of-breaking-apart
• Apoorba Banerjee on resilience-conditional-trade-order-asean-s-2026-challenge
• Joshua Keating on xi-zhang-youxia-china-military-purge
• Cyrus Naji on bangladeshs-stalled-student-revolution-cyrus-naji
• David Goodman on xi-jinping-has-dismissed-two-of-chinas-most-senior-generals-what-does-this-mean
• Ali Mamouri on as-syrias-new-government-consolidates-its-power-the-kurdish-minority-fears-for-its-future
• Arash Beidollarkani on technology-repression-iran-re-engineers-its-security-state
• Henry Storey on green-shoots-emerge-india-s-economic-reform-agenda
• Amin Saikal on with-iran-weakened-trumps-end-goal-may-now-be-regime-change-its-an-incredibly-risky-gamble
• Jiwon Kim on tokyo-court-finds-north-korea-s-paradise-earth-survivors-were-misled
• noahpinion on no-china-doesnt-plan-1000-years-ahead

Wonk

• Anuad Bertrand on carney-just-announced-that-the-west-lost-the-second-cold-war Thanks Nick
• breaking the news on a-speech-for-the-history-books Thanks Nick
• Mathew McManus on carl-schmitts-critique-of-liberal-democracy Thanks Nick
• Connor O'Brien and Quah Jye on middle-powers-can-t-run-world
• sandwichman on in-midst-of-rupture
• Tyler Cowen on the-economics-of-currency-values
• noahpinion on roundup-76-great-powers-acting-stupid
• Jerome Tubiana on darfurs-endless-war-el-fasher-tubiana
• Menzie Chinn on kamin-sobel-termites-are-slowly-feasting-away-at-the-foundations-of-the-dollars-dominance
• David Tan on nuclear-fallacy-why-deterrence-can-t-stop-agi-arms-race
• Chris Dillow on the-death-of-the-centre-right

General

• Maxime Aubert et al on humanitys-oldest-known-cave-art-has-been-discovered-in-sulawesi
• Eva Anagnostou-Laotides and Michael Charles on in-ancient-mesopotamia-what-was-a-ziggurat
• Tyler Cowen on who-is-good-at-soccer

Climate

• real climate on a-peek-behind-the-curtain
• skeptical science on winter-2026-hit-us , new_research
• Wesley Morgan on fossil-fuels-are-doomed-and-trump-cant-save-them

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• concerns-about-analyses-using-the-cooperative-election-study
  
• harvard-dean-made-150000-as-witness-in-tylenol-suits
  
• the-myth-of-wage-compensation-for-hazardous-work-rears-its-ugly-head-this-nyt-article-has-been-engineered-to-annoy-peter-dorman
  
• science-vs-superstition-and-the-pluralists-dilemma
  
• machine-learning-research-is-not-serious-research-and-therefore-hallucinated-references-are-not-necessarily-a-big-deal-agrees-a-prestigious-group-of-machine-learning-researchers 
  
• facebook-and-the-inherent-incoherence-of-the-ideology-of-market-leading-tech-companies
  
• survey-statistics-total-margin-of-error-ii
  
• ok-i-reread-that-classic-paper-by-paul-meehl-and
  
• not-quite-adversarial-collaboration
  
• statschat on its-cold-out-there , briefly
• freakometrics on modelling and understanding indirect discrimination in algorithmic fairness
• Kaiser Fung on instacart-bows-to-pressure , how-mta-is-spending-its-money

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• angry bear on book-review-land-is-a-big-deal

Vox Wonk

• you-only-live-twice-growth-strategy-ukraine 
  
• building-bank-resilience-additional-tier-1-debt-reform 
  
• winners-and-losers-remote-work-how-firm-capabilities-impact-productivity
  
• how-tariff-war-shock-affected-safe-asset-privilege-us-treasuries
  
• analysis-eu-telecom-sectors-ability-remunerate-its-cost-capital
  

Another rate rise is likely

 the CPI was released yesterday. ( It has both monthly and quarterly data.) Here is John Hawkin's take.

On a quarterly basis the trimmed mean is not looking good. A conservative central bank would raise rates simply because the risk is too great inflation maybe on the rise again. Remember as we have talked about before the economy's speed limit is reasonably low and thus inflation can rise even though GDP is tepid.

The government could reduce spending. Incredibly for an ALP government they have gone big on universal care as the OECD pointed out. Think batteries, e-cars child care etc.

I should also point out the labour force figures overstate the strength of the labour market.  Private sector employment has gone backwards. It is the non-market sector where employment has surged.

I think on balance the correct move would be to raise rates. We do have monthly CPI figures these days so monetary policy can be changed if needed.

the coalition in a mess

 Technically speaking the tile is inaccurate as there is no coalition!  however without one there will never be a change of government and that is a bad thing for Australia.

It is the National party that is at fault here. They had three shadow ministers agree to a policy in a shadow cabinet meeting and then vote against the policy in parliament!  Given it is the whole national party agreeing to this absurd position and we must assume with Littleproud's assertion they will not be in a coalition where Ley is the liberal leader.

This leads us to a position where there will be no coalition for some time to come.

It appears there are only two scenarios going forward.

1. The Nationals climb down from their position which seems unlikely
2. The Liberals choose another leader and thing calm down. This seems unlikely as well as it would show the Liberals kowtowing to the Nationals demand.

We could get to the really stupid position where both the Liberals and Nationals have separate shadow ministers. One major reason for why this is stupid is who gets dumped when eventually there is a coalition.

As I have said Australia needs a strong coalition not only for a change of government but also to keep them honest as they govern. I am unsure as how we get there.