Peter Martin

 My old mate Peter Martin has a show on radio National called the economy stupid.

It is a good show. It is good because not only does Peter understand economics he is also a good journalist so he asks the right questions most of the time.

The topics are varied and interesting most of the time. The latest one examined how GDP is measured and what is should measure. The guests were another old mate Nicki Hutley and Dianne Coyle who readers should be aware of.

I have only a short time to write today but this program is only 30 minutes and well worth a listen.

Cream

 Cream was the original super band. Like most they were over-rated.

This is easily the best song they did.

Around the Traps 6/3/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on monetary-policy-asymmetries-lags-and-the-case-for-usefulness , how-interest-rate-targeting-works , q4-2025-national-accounts-update
• Kevin Bonham on why-did-one-nation-win-11-seats-in-state -election- in -1998-but-no-federal-seats
• Toby Walsh on why-commonwealth-banks-1billion-suspected-loan-fraud-should-change-how-we-bank-and-do-business
• Donald Rothwell on australia-response-us-israel-attack-iran-international-law
• Allan Behm on australia-support-us-israel-attack-on-iran-gullible-duplicitous-or-both
• Peter Mares on want-higher-productivity-replace-backpackers-pacific-workers
• Greg Jericho on australia-gdp-growth-government-spending
• Nic Bisley on australia-can-no-longer-be-complacent-about-trumps-america-its-time-to-chart-a-new-course
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on australian-economy-picks-up-speed-but-managing-inflation-and-rates-is-getting-harder
• Louise Francis on a-billion-dollar-empire-of-harm-how-gambling-took-over-australia
• David Ubilava on fertiliser-costs-are-soaring-amid-war-in-the-middle-east-will-your-grocery-bill-follow
• Rebecca Strating on in-a-ruptured-world-order-heres-how-australia-can-forge-new-middle-power-partnerships

OZ Climate

• big-solar-and-batteries-lead-march-to-the-grid-but-new-plans-for-wind-projects-are-piling-up
  
• federal-battery-rebate-hits-a-quarter-million-installs-but-is-the-party-over
  
• australias-renewables-pipeline-running-laps-around-its-net-zero-targets-its-the-pace-that-is-lacking
  
• big-battery-deals-dominate-as-investors-buy-sell-finance-and-contract-australian-energy-storage
  
• new-state-investment-vehicle-launches-with-34-billion-renewables-push
  
• big-battery-deals-dominate-as-investors-buy-sell-finance-and-contract-australian-energy-storage 
  
• is-the-market-operators-next-energy-transition-plan-already-out-of-date
  
• Hussein Dia on how-australias-new-fuel-efficiency-scheme-quietly-created-a-carbon-currency-for-cars-and-its-working
• Christopher Cornwall and Orlando Timmerman on the-future-remains-bleak-for-corals-but-not-all-reefs-are-doomed

Northern America

• the liberal patriot on democrats-need-a-swing-state-nominee Thanks Nick
• Evelyn Quartz on the-end-of-the-aoc-moment Thanks Nick
• Emily Amick on how-evie-magazine-is-packaging-sex Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on after-ieepa-law-and-economics
• Zack Beauchamp on us-iran-war-trump-case-israel 
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-analysis-what-happens-next
• Saam Roggeveen on immigration-trump-s-puzzling-australia-exemption
• Alana Ford on data-sovereignty-fault-line-dividing-washington-its-allies
• Bianca Baggiarin i on the-pentagon-strongarmed-ai-firms-before-iran-strikes-in-dark-news-for-the-future-of-ethical-ai
• John Cochrane on efg-review Thanks Tyler
• Claire Yorke on america-s-ambassador-problem
• Henry Yep on can-us-train-enough-welders-win-war
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-drezner-there-is-no-plan-on-iran
• Sussan Glasser on can-donald-trump-win-a-war-with-iran-if-he-cant-explain-why-he-started-it
• Kruggers on war-is-expensive-for-the-little-people , reality-sets-in-on-trumps-new-war
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-iran-war-end-scenarios
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mirabelli-bonta-sauron-wins
• Yair Rosenberg on trump-iran-war-justification
• Richard Haas on special-edition-undisciplined
• Carol Leonnig nd Ken Dilanian on under-fire-and-then-fired-when-kash-patels-behavior-becomes-the-story
• Jay Kang on the-no-explanation-war

Europe

• Joseph Roche on ukraine-war-four-year-anniversary-children Thanks Nick
• Doug Muir on imperia-a-european-culture-story-part-2
• Alexander Titov on ukraine-after-four-years-of-war-exhaustion-on-both-sides-is-the-main-hope-for-peace
• Ian Hill on what-iran-conflict-means-russia
• Tim Judah on a-bitter-winter-in-ukraine
• Chris Dillow on bad-incentives-in-politics

Asia

• David Leitch on the-direction-of-chinas-coal-journey-is-clear-the-pace-remains-the-question
• Julian Borger on trump-unprovoked-attack-on-iran-has-no-mandate-and-no-clear-objective
• Javeed Ali on iran-will-respond-to-us-israeli-strikes-as-existential-threats-to-the-regime-because-they-are
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-killed-iran-s-leader-it-s-doubtful-he-has-ideas-beyond-that
• Amin Saikal on trump-and-netanyahu-want-regime-change-but-irans-regime-was-built-for-survival-a-long-war-is-now-likely
• Shannon Brincat and Juan Caceres on neither-preemptive-nor-legal-us-israeli-strikes-on-iran-have-blown-up-international-law
• Andrew Thomas on ayatollah-ali-khamenei-ruled-iran-with-defiance-and-brutality-for-36-years-for-many-iranians-he-will-not-be-revered , why-did-iran-bomb-dubai-a-middle-east-expert-explains-the-regional-alliances-at-play
• Robert Pape on khamenei-dead-iran-regime-change-airpower-history
• Shadi Saif on cricket-legends-are-speaking-imran-khan-why-won-t-governments 
• Tyler Cowen on one-view-of-iranian-strategy
• Ryan Shih on japanese-investment-china-keeps-rising-despite-political-tensions
• deeper look on how-the-cia-and-israel-pulled-off-the-successful-leadership-strike-on Iran-leadership Thanks Brad
• Sam Roggeveen on what-iran-war-means-us-china-balance
• Charles Jones on after-khamenei-china-watching-so-should-taiwan
• Brynn Tannehill on us-iran-war-air-strikes
• Robin Wright on what-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-meant-to-iran-and-what-comes-next
• Ishaan Tharoor on has-trump-thought-through-the-endgame-in-iran
• noahpinion on japan-can-be-americas-arsenal
• William Leben on taiwan-still-working-itself-out
• Mehmet Ozalp on who-is-mojtaba-khamenei-irans-presumed-next-supreme-leader-and-would-he-bring-change-or-more-brutal-suppression
• Andrew Gawthorpe on how-prepared-are-the-us-and-its-allies-for-a-protracted-conflict-in-iran
• Joshua Keating on iran-axis-resistance-october-7-israel
• Grant Wyeth on mark-carney-s-pacific-pivot 
• Kazimier Lim on iran-s-threat-airline-travel-gulf-s-skies-are-now-chokepoint-too 
• Khang Vu on kim-jong-un-no-rush-talk

Wonk

• Andrew Lownie on secrets-lies-and-a-costly-legal-battle Thanks Nick
• Jo Tarnawsky on swimming with narcissists Thanks Nick
• Becca Rothfeld on listless-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Kvetch on on-liberalisms-aesthetic Thanks Nick
• anecdotal value on attention-is-all-you-need-to-bankrupt Thanks Nick
• Gustavo Flores-Macias on perils-militarizing-law-enforcement Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on laying-off-workers-cheap-vs-expensive , can-ai-tools-be-pro-worker , when-rubber-was-the-critical-imported-good , fiscal-rules-in-emerging-market-economies , the-status-of-stablecoins
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-technological-change , war-oil-and-the-world-economy
• Mark the Graph on follow-science-science-uncertainty
• noahpinion on the-shape-of-the-multipolar-world-is-a-little-clearer , superintelligence-is-already-here-today
• Shannon Bosch on does-international-law-still-matter-the-strike-on-the-girls-school-in-iran-shows-why-we-need-it
• sandwichman on the-essence-of-revolutionary-practice
• Eric Schliesser on in-the-next-great-transformation-ai-will-not-eliminate-genuine-expertise-rather-it-will-make-it-more-valuable
• Matt Fitzpatrick on does-regime-change-ever-work-history-tells-us-long-term-consequences-are-often-disastrou
• Tyler Cowen on deflating-macroeconomics
• Ali Mamouri on mourning-celebration-and-a-divided-legacy-why-the-death-of-ali-khamenei-reverberates-far-beyond-iran
• Stella Huangfu on why-surging-oil-prices-are-a-shock-for-the-global-economy-but-not-yet-a-crisis
• William Topping on real-ai-gap-between-china-west-isn-t-chips-or-models-stories-we-tell
• the economist on the-iran-energy-nightmare-is-becoming-a-reality

General 

• Tim Harford on its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-but-i-feel-fine

Climate

• James Bell and Manon Broadribb on deeper-ocean-ecosystems-are-unique-and-uniquely-vulnerable-without-better-protection
• ocean acidification on range-extending-fish-become-competitive-dominants-under-ocean-warming-but-not-heatwaves-or-acidification , persistence-of-coral-reef-structures-into-the-twenty-first-century
• Tyler Cowen on new-results-on-the-economic-costs-of-climate-change
• Hussein Dia on the-strikes-on-iran-show-why-quitting-oil-is-more-important-than-ever
• skeptical science on just-have-a-think-primary-energy , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• hey-what-the-froot-is-up-with-this-harvard-website
  
• thinking-about-objections-to-ethnic-political-representation
  
• in-commemoration-of-the-conclusion-of-the-2026-winter-olympics
  
• the-inner-workings-of-a-scam
  
• survey-statistics-sampling-weighted-loss 
  
• as-a-statistical-consultant-if-youre-a-co-author-on-a-substantive-paper-is-it-your-duty-to-ensure-that-all-the-possible-statistical-concerns-you-could-imagine-are-addressed
  
• missing-forecasts
  
•  making-a-killing-from-prediction-markets 
  
• more-on-making-a-killing-in-the-preddiction-markets
  
• Kaiser Fung on numbersense-in-sports-commentary , get-your-automated-junk-charts-clone
• Freaometrics on a once in a centruy flood

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Joel Eissenberg on review-of-sitting-bulls-war
• Tyler Cowen on the-infinity-machine

Vox Wonk

• tariffs-trade-flows-diversion-effects-and-chinas-exports-eu 
  
• how-sanctions-can-help-stabilise-global-oil-supply 
  
• banking-on-nonbanks
  
• credit-default-swaps-analysis-and-policies 
  
• fiscal-drag-europe-how-inflation-quietly-affecting-public-revenue
  
• ai-and-distribution-income-between-capital-and-labour
  
• wartime-labour-market-case-ukraine
  
• non-fungible-token-bubble-what-investors-actually-earned 
  
• why-keynes-did-not-win-nobel-peace-prize-for-the-economic-consequences-of-peace 
  
• capitalising-europes-strengths
  

Let us finish the week with Iran

 Okay before I start here are some interesting articles:

• Richard Haas
• Yair Rosenberg
• Brynn Tannehill
• Ishaan Tharoor

We now have had almost a week and there has been more reasons given for this war than I have had hot dinners. No wonder they lack support for this war in the USA.

Thus we can conclude the commenced a war and then looked for a reason.  They didn't think about how people would be stranded nor about what would occur to oil supplies. Nor do they appear to have any end game in sight. Again we can only assume Trump will declare victory  and go home and maybe go to Cuba?

This is a perfect example of wouldbe authoritarians being incompetent at their jobs. Even defense forces can have supply constraints!

Iran again

 What can I say Sussan Glasser does it well.

I woke up this morning to hear Trump allege Iran was going to attack the USA.

HOW and with what?

They had not much of an airfare , their navy was not much chop and they certainly were not going top invade the USA so the army is irrelevant.

I can tell you what they will plan now. Terrorist activities against the USA and any ally.

At least Bush had coherent lies before invading Iraq, 

Iran's plan is straight forward. Try to ensure the oil price continues to spike and have a negative affect on western share markets!

Albo is wrong

 Albo is repeating the John Howard mistakes of Iraq. you fully support a war because it is the USA, our major ally, has started it.

See Donald Rothwell.   update: Allan Behm See also articles from yesterday.

Australia believes in a rules based order.What the USA and Israel have done is the antithesis of that. It is a might is right philosophy. Neither of the two nations attempted to get UN backing for their move as they lacked any evidence. Their assertions at this stage are incoherent.

Just because they are an evil  theocratic government ( yes that is a tautology) does not mean you can go and attack them. You need justifiable reasons.  The nuclear program in Iran has been decimated and at present no threat. Iran have had long range missiles for a long time so why are they are  problem now. As we said yesterday HOW are you going to ensure the right regime change and have a government and people that choose butter over guns.

Regimes that have machine guns on buildings and aim at genitals to kill protesters do not give up over easily!

Alas Albo has shown himself to be very weak and devoid of any moral principles. You do not support the elimination of a  government for the wrong reasons otherwise you join Putin!

On a related point how come Kuwait can down THREE US jets yet Iran can get near any of them? Perhaps the Russian and Chinese weaponry Iran has is not as good as publicised!

The Iran debacle

 Before I start let me just say the Iranian regime was an evil regime.  They had machine guns on top of buildings shooting at the protesters and aiming at their genetals!I would hope for regime change but for the better. The world is not a better place with the killing of the Supreme leader as yet because we do not know who will succeed him Let us remember they tore up the succession plans when the previous leader dies so we do not know but the odds are the successor will be as bad or perhaps worse

Okay some people writing:

• Amin Saikal
• Shannon Brincat and Juan Caceres
• Javed Ali
• Rodger Shanahan
• Fred Kaplan
• Robert Pape
• Zack Beauchamp

The reasons for this clearly illegal action is muddled. Apparently the obliterated nuclear program is running reasonably strongly. This is very unlikely. Even if they has nukes if they used them Iran would become a nuclear  pancake!

Both The USa and Israel want Iran to eliminate their long range missiles ( which can reach Israel but no the USA.

The last case is possibly closer to the truth in wanting regime change. BUT even though this is the most logical reason for the act of war neither the USA nor Israel has a clue on how to do this.  Killing people and blowing up buildings does not help in changing a regime.

The world wants a regime where the Iranian people have the democratic choice to vote in governments. They do not want a regime that is worse!

In a sense what is the difference between Trump wanting to change the regime in Iran illegally and Putin wanting to do the same in Ukraine