Iran again

 Let us go back to the beginning.

Obama set up a reasonable agreement with other nations.

Iran had to curb their nuclear interests. There would be inspectors to examine their dealings. It worked well BUT Trump came in and tore it up.

Now we have a war where no ships can go anywhere near the strait of hormuz. It is important to note that no tanker will attempt to go through it without insurance and they will not have insurance if there are threats being thrown around let alone live ammunition.

We are also being told two different things. Iran's nuclear ambitions were obliterated all those months ago by US and Israeli fighters. Nuclear were very close to possing a nuclear bomb. Huh. I think we can ignore Iran was anywhere near to having a nuclear bomb. By the way I have never heard any Irani official say they were willing to Nuke Israel knowing they would be nuked in turn. ( Israel has over 200 nukes)

We are also told Iran must stop funding their proxies. Okay how do you do that. We have not been told.

Iran also has to reduce their missile and drone capability.

some say they want regime change in Iran.

Okay if you want some or even all of those aims upheld you will need boots on the ground.

Irani officials know the importance of the mid-terms. My guess there would be a number of US soldiers killed BUT also a number of petro-chemical plants destroyed by Iran's missiles. The world economy would be hit very hard.

Think about this. The US negotiators are inexperienced with little back up to help them by design. Steve witkoff has been shown to be easily manipulated by Russia. He also either lied or di not understand what Iran said according to Oman's officials.  This is always likely to occur if you do not have experts from the State department to help you. Kushner and Vance have little experience in negotiating and it shows.

From where I sit it is very clear Trump is failing around because everything has gone pear-shaped. i have no idea of how this is going to work out but it doesn't look good.

Mark Knopfler

 If you have not seen Local Hero then do yourself a favour and watch it if only for the magnificent scottish scenery.

This music is the ending of the film and I am sorry but I have never seen a decent live version of the music.

Around the Traps 17/4/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on more-australian-lng-to-singapore-flagged-as-albanese-looks-to-strengthen-oil-supply-chain
• Antony Green on sa2026-huge-win-for-labor-but-a-warning-in-the-result
• Kate Griffiths et al on to-stop-australian-democracy-going-the-way-of-the-us-heres-what-we-need-to-do
• Kevin Bonham on the-amazing-2026-south-australian-election
• Abul Risvi on australia-immigration-powers-angus-taylor-trump
• Sam Bennett and Reilly Polaschek on the-government-wants-to-curb-ndis-spending-heres-how-it-might-succeed
• Andrew Whitehouse on autism-diagnoses-are-up-largely-fuelled-by-the-ndis-what-happens-next-isnt-entirely-clear
• Dave Jervis-Bardy on ignore-self-serving-claims-from-gas-giants-and-implement-100-tax-on-windfall-profits-ken-henry-says
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-chaos-donald-trump
• Clinton Free on employment-data-shows-the-early-signs-of-ai-job-disruption-are-already-here
• Saul Eslake on another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have
• Tony Wood on what-does-the-geelong-refinery-fire-reveal-about-australias-fuel-supplies
• Antony Green on it-turns-out-the-count-aint-over
• Mick Ryan on 2026-national-defence-strategy-delivers-more-same

OZ Climate

• Kimberly Reid on why-the-phrase-super-el-nino-makes-australian-climate-scientists-roll-their-eyes
• Adam Morton on australia-fossil-fuels-politics-electric-vehicle-savings-clean-energy
• Envirolink on sydneys-summer-season-extends-dramatically-as-global-cities-face-longer-heat-periods
• an-own-goal-that-we-dont-need-investor-group-sounds-alarm-over-new-tax-on-renewables
  
• fortescue-fast-tracks-worlds-first-large-scale-green-grid-to-eliminate-diesel-and-other-fossil-fuels
  
• birds-avoid-turbines-two-new-studies-suggest-wind-farms-are-not-killing-machines-after-all
  
• 100-pct-renewable-74-pct-of-the-time-how-australias-most-advanced-grid-plans-to-be-an-energy-powerhouse
  
• can-networks-solve-australias-chicken-and-egg-ev-problem-the-battle-for-control-of-kerbside-charging
  
• the-hours-the-market-wants-back-free-daytime-power-or-a-fix-for-solar-and-wind-curtailment
  
• most-heavy-emitters-blow-their-carbon-budgets-but-bowen-sees-clear-sign-safeguard-mechanism-is-working
  
• this-lobby-barely-blinks-when-trump-threatens-genocide-but-is-in-meltdown-when-bowen-talks-wind-and-solar
  
• australian-home-battery-installations-equal-to-almost-10-pct-of-global-utility-capacity-brought-online-in-march
• batteries-included-amazon-makes-record-haul-of-hybrid-renewable-ppas-to-power-australian-ai-push
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on u-s-dollar-dominance-in-trade-invoicing-and-cross-border-investments-in-seacen-eeconomies
• Astead Hearndon on america-actually
• noahpinion on will-americans-want-more-housing-if-it-looks-prettier , what-if-a-few-ai-companies-end-up-with-all-the-money-and-power , hasan-piker-is-bad-for-the-democrats
• Kruggers on the-dollars-special-status-sources-and-threats , how-america-is-losing-the-world , trump-wants-regime-change-at-the-fed
• Christian Paz on trump-pope-ai-blasphemy-art-christ-evangelical-religious-right
• open mind on truth-about-trump
• the conversable economist on the-us-as-an-innovation-economy , the-austin-experience-more-housing-lower-rents
• Matt Simon on ev-battery-storage-grid-renewable-energy
• Tom Nicholls on trump-pope-post-truth-social
• Garret Graf on how-much-has-the-war-in-iran-depleted-the-us-missile-supply
• Mark Stern on aclu-lawsuit-ice-reign-of-terror-maine-california
• Molly Omstead on trump-jesus-post-pope-attack-maga-reaction
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-iran-hungary-melania-epstein
• Jon Allsop on what-brought-down-eric-swalwell
• David Rhode on gabbard-revives-deep-state-conspiracy-claims-alarming-democrats-who-see-a-pattern
• Bevan Shields on trumps-state-of-mind
• Naomi Seligman on eric-swalwell-resignation-congress-culture
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-speech-progressives-hitler
• Chris Lehmann on how trump keeps getting away with blasphemy
• Sarah Fitzpatrick on kash-patel-fbi-director-drinking-absences

Europe

• Johan Norberg on how-viktor-orbans-hungary-eroded-rule-law-free-markets Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hatwich on im-a-liberal-now-but-i-still-mourn-the-slow-death-of-the-social-democrats-in-germany Thanks Nick
• future of the left reader on the-purpose-of-patriotism Thank you Nick
• Kruggers on delusions-of-grandeur-hungary-edition
• Paul Whiteley on three-reasons-donald-trump-wont-pull-the-us-out-of-nato
• open mind on march-2026-climate-in-the-usa
• Zack Beauchamp on hungary-election-results-2026-viktor-orban-peter-magyar
• Andrew Marantz on the-hungarian-election-shows-that-even-strongmen-can-lose
• Robert Horvath on he-exposed-corruption-and-walked-across-hungary-now-peter-magyar-has-defeated-a-powerful-state-machine
• renew economy on renewable-generation-records-fall-across-the-uk-as-imported-gas-consumption-tumbles

Asia

• Jennifer Parker on what-will-it-take-to-get-ships-going-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-again
• Jessica Genauer on will-the-conflict-in-lebanon-destroy-the-us-iran-ceasefire-maybe-but-it-was-already-shaky
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on middle-east-conflict-this-ceasefire-may-have-made-iran-stronger
• David Remnick on Trumps strategic and  moral failure in iran
• Sanjoy Paul on trumps-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-risks-new-costs-for-the-global-economy
• Donald Rothwell on would-a-us-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-legal
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-orban-hungary-economy
• Aniello Iannone on asean-s-energy-crisis-not-about-energy 
• Richard Heydarian on marcos-s-overture-china-masks-anxiety-about-us-reliability
• Kruggers on chinese-electrotech-is-the-big-winner
• Leon Goldsmith on strait-of-hormuz-blockade-the-complex-regional-realities-the-us-ignores-at-its-peril
• Julius Trajano on oil-shock-nuclear-surge-asia
• Colin Powers on the-emirates-on-the-tightrope
• Isaac Chotiner on the-extremes-of-israeli-public-opinion
• Johann Rebert and Nicola Nixon on asia-s-scam-centre-problem-moving-not-shutting-down
• home and away on iran-between-war-and-peace
• renew economy on worlds-biggest-co-located-wind-and-solar-project-begins-operations-in-china
• Federica Mogherini and Sahil Shah on how-to-end-the-iran-crisis
• Ali Mamouri on iran-has-a-powerful-new-tool-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-that-it-can-leverage-long-after-the-war
• Avishay Artsy and Sean Rameswaram on israel-lebanon-ceasefire-buffer-zone-hezbollah-explained
• Awais Hanif on japan-aims-shipbuilding-revival

Wonk

• institutional economics on fade-the-ceasefire-rally-its-not-going-to-last
• Brad De Long on is-the-day-of-the-data-center-about-to-be-over
• Ramon Glaznov on bearded-schizoidal-fanatics-the-revival-of-character-pathology-in-the-trump Thanks Nick
• Bruce Buchan on what-actually-is-civilisation-the-dark-and-loaded-history-behind-trumps-threat-against-iran
• Mark Alfano and Michael Klincewicz on slopaganda-wars-how-and-why-the-us-and-iran-are-flooding-the-zone-with-viral-ai-generated-noise
• Mark the Graph on weekly-update-energy-prices
• Tim Harford on the-usefulness-of-useless-knowledge
• the conversable economist on globalization-healthier-than-the-headlines , interview-with-ellen-mcgrattan-business-cycles-and-intangible-capital , ai-and-future-growth
• Nischal Dhungel on high-rates-expensive-oil-create-global-debt-trap
• Jing Ge on moon-governance-spotlight-after-artemis-ii
• Mathew Sussex on what-viktor-orbans-election-loss-means-for-putin-trump-and-the-rise-of-right-wing-populism
• Art Cotterill on as-artemis-ii-is-celebrated-the-world-faces-hard-questions-about-us-leadership-in-space
• Melanie O'Brien on health-care-workers-risk-their-lives-in-warzones-are-we-protecting-them-enough
• Tyler Cowen on the-venetian-empire-and-the-mongols-modeling-marco-polo
• Chris Dillow on one-cheer-for-falling-income-inequality
• Flavio Macao on will-oil-prices-ever-truly-go-back-to-normal
• noahpinion on you-are-what-you-consume

General

• Priyanka Dhopade on artemis-ii-as-humans-return-to-the-moon-which-of-these-4-futures-will-we-choose
• Samarth Kulshiresthra on the-secret-sensory-life-of-plants-researchers-are-discovering-how-they-see-hear-feel-and-even-remember
• Steve Prabhu and James Miller-Jones on black-hole-jets-dance-in-the-wind-from-a-massive-companion-star

Climate

• real climate on a-reflection-on-reflection
• ocean acidification on acidification-in-the-earth%ca%bcs-oceans-trends-and-persistence
• Mary-Ann Lea et al on the-beloved-emperor-penguin-and-antarctic-fur-seal-are-now-officially- on dangered-heres-what-can-be-done
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-down-0023-from-february
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heres-an-interesting-story-there-were-so-many-problems-with-the-survey-that-the-government-didnt-release-the-data
  
• the-ftc-does-not-have-our-backs-that-much-is-clear
  
• all-graphs-are-comparisons-and-the-relevance-of-this-principle-for-practical-advice-for-producing-better-graphs
  
• which-beliefs-are-considered-acceptable-and-which-are-not
  
• how-to-report-a-n12-study
  
• epistemic-virtues-for-science-in-the-age-of-automation 
• survey-statistics-irrelevant-alternatives
  
• can-you-hit-a-home-run-off-of-paul-skenes
  
• fascinating-1981-interview-with-morris-kline-author-of-the-classic-book-mathematics-the-loss-of-certainty
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• AI log on the-pluralistic-universe-of-michael-pollan Thanks Nick
• programable mutter on ai-has-limits-even-if-many-ai-people-can't-see-them Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-55 , that-was-then-that-was-then , that-was-then-this-is-now-56

Vox Wonk

• when-and-why-political-leaders-polarise-rhetoric-evidence-twitterx 
  
• more-women-politics-does-not-always-mean-more-gender-equality 
  
• great-ai-talent-migration-why-universities-are-losing-future-innovation 
  
• migration-shocks-and-voting
  
• weaker-us-job-ladder-has-slowed-wage-growth 
  
• why-global-imbalances-matter-again-and-what-do-about-them
  
• global-shocks-are-back-emerging-markets-holding 
  
• how-new-technologies-travel-evidence-global-firm-networks
  
• rapid-technology-creation-widened-inequality-across-time-and-space 
  
• bank-failures-roles-solvency-and-liquidity 
  
• value-free-health-insurance-evidence-mexicos-seguro-popular 
  
• cross-border-payment-technologies-innovations-and-challenges-lessons-domestic-and 
  
• olympic-opportunity-social-housing-policy-lessons-athens-2004-olympic-village
  

some OZ stuff

 National party

Their leader who has studied and worked for the productivity commision came up with a dreadful idea yesterday. economics. He says there is plenty of oil in australia, Good thus far. He said the reason it wasn't being explored previously aa was because prices were too low to make it economic. Even better thus far. BUT he then goes on to promote a domestic oil industry. so he is in fact saying high prices will remain with us for a long time ( in the long term is the jargon) BUT he also says the present rise is only a short term phenomena. Note they are contradictory statements. Companies only invest in such ventures when they are confident of long term success. Thus would you be investing in oil exploration and refining?

Canavan is a protectionist thus saying whatever he studied at university was wrong!

climate change

I have noticed a bewildering lot of criticism coming from 'right wing' commentators at Chris Bowen. In most criticism there is a whole lot of economic ignorance. I heard one person say NSW is reliable because of our browns coal. Coal aint reliable and we have no brown coal Victoria has it!!

Batteries are roaring. This will have a significant effect on the market. We have seen commercial batteries reduce wholesale prices in the evening as they take market share from high cost gas.

Defence

As we raise our defence spending we must learn from Ukraine and its drone technology. We get a female head of army.

AI

Are we seeing the first effects of it?

The Opposition on Immigration

 Angus Kelly released his new policy on immigration. See Michelle Grattan and Abul Rizvi.

I will merely note a few things.

• There is no evidence to back up assertions. It is very one nationesque.
• They want to examine social media accounts of every immigrant. This is utter Trumpist stupidity. Are we going to say no to anyone that criticises Australian policy?
• They are going to ban immigrants from Gaza. Again on what evidence? do they realise Palestinian Christians are over-represented in immigrants thus far. Do they think they are  potential terrorists?

Pauline Hanson can get way for portraying herself as an ignorant fool because she is one. Taylor cannot.

The other thing is we are a highly successful multi-cultural nation indeed an immigrant nation.

It was very poor policy. We can only hope it improves

update:

Amanda Vanstone does not think much of the policy.

The illegal war on Iran shows incompetence in action

 Not much time today.

The New York Times has a story on how the war in Iran started. It is authored by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan ( son of norman!). There is a book coming.

Bibi convinced Trump this would be a short very winnable war which would enhance his stature and polling. They convinced him that there would be regime change so the strait of homuz would not be a problem.

This shows incompetence at is best. Few questions are asked. No history is enquired about and the triumph of Venezuela goes to his head.

Alas for the world he is still there.

I  know it is not related but only a person who has lost his marbles would show himself as Jesus. Add that to destroying Iranian civilisation then he is crackers!

A few things

 Ben Roberts Smith

I have had a gutful of his supporters saying his arrest and forthcoming trial will mean a fall in recruitment. NO IT DOESN'T!!!  Most people have a moral compass, Roberts-Smith clearly did not. Remember he has was found guilty of war crimes on the basis of probability BUT not on beyond reasonable doubt. His behaviour led to Afghanis lacking any support for the allies in Afghanistan and thus lead to the taliban regaining power. To be honest he di not have the faintest idea of what fighting a war was all about.

Hungary

I was surprised Orban gave up power so easily after losing the general election. Perhaps it was the margin. He also di not realise most hungarians want to be europeans. It is also good news for Ukraine which is great too.

Democracy

The grattan institute ( easily the best in the country) has released a great paper on this subject. Wrap your head around it. It is both interesting and thought provoking.

Eric Swalwell

This man a californian democrat is being investigated for sexually assaulting several women. I am surprised at this. He is very good and does not seem remotely likely to do such a crime but we shall see. It is clear he will have to get out of the governor's job in California.