Iran again

 What can I say Sussan Glasser does it well.

I woke up this morning to hear Trump allege Iran was going to attack the USA.

HOW and with what?

They had not much of an airfare , their navy was not much chop and they certainly were not going top invade the USA so the army is irrelevant.

I can tell you what they will plan now. Terrorist activities against the USA and any ally.

At least Bush had coherent lies before invading Iraq, 

Iran's plan is straight forward. Try to ensure the oil price continues to spike and have a negative affect on western share markets!

Albo is wrong

 Albo is repeating the John Howard mistakes of Iraq. you fully support a war because it is the USA, our major ally, has started it.

See Donald Rothwell.   update: Allan Behm See also articles from yesterday.

Australia believes in a rules based order.What the USA and Israel have done is the antithesis of that. It is a might is right philosophy. Neither of the two nations attempted to get UN backing for their move as they lacked any evidence. Their assertions at this stage are incoherent.

Just because they are an evil  theocratic government ( yes that is a tautology) does not mean you can go and attack them. You need justifiable reasons.  The nuclear program in Iran has been decimated and at present no threat. Iran have had long range missiles for a long time so why are they are  problem now. As we said yesterday HOW are you going to ensure the right regime change and have a government and people that choose butter over guns.

Regimes that have machine guns on buildings and aim at genitals to kill protesters do not give up over easily!

Alas Albo has shown himself to be very weak and devoid of any moral principles. You do not support the elimination of a  government for the wrong reasons otherwise you join Putin!

On a related point how come Kuwait can down THREE US jets yet Iran can get near any of them? Perhaps the Russian and Chinese weaponry Iran has is not as good as publicised!

The Iran debacle

 Before I start let me just say the Iranian regime was an evil regime.  They had machine guns on top of buildings shooting at the protesters and aiming at their genetals!I would hope for regime change but for the better. The world is not a better place with the killing of the Supreme leader as yet because we do not know who will succeed him Let us remember they tore up the succession plans when the previous leader dies so we do not know but the odds are the successor will be as bad or perhaps worse

Okay some people writing:

• Amin Saikal
• Shannon Brincat and Juan Caceres
• Javed Ali
• Rodger Shanahan
• Fred Kaplan
• Robert Pape
• Zack Beauchamp

The reasons for this clearly illegal action is muddled. Apparently the obliterated nuclear program is running reasonably strongly. This is very unlikely. Even if they has nukes if they used them Iran would become a nuclear  pancake!

Both The USa and Israel want Iran to eliminate their long range missiles ( which can reach Israel but no the USA.

The last case is possibly closer to the truth in wanting regime change. BUT even though this is the most logical reason for the act of war neither the USA nor Israel has a clue on how to do this.  Killing people and blowing up buildings does not help in changing a regime.

The world wants a regime where the Iranian people have the democratic choice to vote in governments. They do not want a regime that is worse!

In a sense what is the difference between Trump wanting to change the regime in Iran illegally and Putin wanting to do the same in Ukraine

the Doors

 Robert Duvall recently dies. The ride of the valkyries is out this this isn't.

but this is longer

Around the Traps 27/2/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Lasura Maneti on the-ground-beneath-sydney-emits-radiation-but-its-nothing-to-worry-about
• Laura de Zwaan on what-are-your-options-if-you-cant-afford-to-repay-your-mortgage
• Donald Rothwell on australian-children-in-syria-roj-camp-support
• Ali Mamouri and Fethi Mansouri on pauline-hansons-no-good-muslims-comment-shows-how-normalised-islamophobia-has-become-in-australia
• Mark the Graph on where-is-nairu-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-RBA
• Greg Jericho on capital-gains-tax-discount-federal-budget-coalition-tax-cuts-for-the-richest
• Pandanus Petter et al on politicians-say-immigration-threatens-australian-values-but-our-research-shows-no-one-knows-exactly-what-that-means
• Ely Ratner on hard-conversations-australia-s-defence

OZ Climate

• australias-biggest-publicly-owned-wind-farm-gets-federal-green-tick-to-go-ahead-in-queensland
  
• transgrids-latest-cost-blowout-raises-a-key-question-what-was-the-point-of-privatising-energy-networks
  
• gas-the-stealthy-price-setter-of-australias-high-electricity-bills-as-batteries-continue-to-bite
  
• new-battery-made-exclusively-for-homes-launches-onto-red-hot-australian-market
  
• state-labor-pledges-huge-renewables-tender-for-land-twice-the-size-of-kangaroo-island
  
• higher-fixed-network-tariffs-could-cancel-out-the-savings-from-the-cheaper-home-batteries-rebate
  
• australias-biggest-renewables-grid-stress-test-facility-gets-a-3-million-upgrade
  
• new-demand-new-renewables-industry-calls-on-data-centres-to-byo-solar-wind-and-storage
• Adam Morton on australia-fuel-tax-credit-scheme-government-anti-climate-policy-under-pressure

Northern America

• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-marshall-dont-be-fooled-by the corrupt-courts-tariff-decision , understanding-the-state-of-the-corrupt-supreme-court-today
• institutional economics on kevin-hassett-partisanship-and-epistemic-closure
• Kent Jones on supreme-court-rules-against-trumps-emergency-tariffs-but-leaves-key-questions-unanswered
• the conversable economist on trumps-tariffs-have-not-shifted-the-trade-deficit
• Kruggers on tariff-policy-by-the-numbers , attack-of-the-zombie-tariffs , a-sotu-like-no-other , when-extraterrestrials-attacked-the-stock-market
• Felicity Deane on trump-hikes-global-tariffs-to-15-as-the-fallout-from-supreme-court-loss-continues
• David Frum on polling-crisis-gallup
• noahpinion  on does-anyone-know-why-were-still-doing , the-citrini-post-is-just-a-scary-bedtime-story , why-does-america-feel-worse-than-other-countries-crime!
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-learning-resources-major-questions-doctrine-gorsuch-barrett
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-mail-voting
• Tom Nicholls on republican-party-nazi-problem
• David Cole on trading-with-the-enemy-supreme-court-tariffs
• Tyler Cowen on the-macroeconomic-effects-of-tariffs
• Jeet Heer on trump-iran-war-threats-iraq
• Shirin Ali on aileen-cannon-jack-smith-supreme-court-opening-trump
• Adam Serwer on elite-accountability-powerful-impunity
• 
  

Europe

• Laura Gozzi on civilians to soldiers
• Kruggers on day-1461-of-putins-three-day-war
• Ben Wellings on the-epstein-scandal-has-battered-britains-political-establishment-can-the-radical-right-reform-party-benefit
• Mick Ryan on russia-ukraine-conflict-1461-days-war
• Hans Van Leeuwen on andrew-symptom-monarchy-s-existential-crisis-not-cause
• Dan Sabbagh on russia-fighting-ukraine-war-throughout-2026-military-thinktank
• Marcus Colla on dilemmas-german-defence

Asia

• Laura Bicker on China a renewables superpower
• Amin Saikal on israel-is-accelerating-its-creeping-annexation-of-the-west-bank-can-donald-trump-stop-it
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-dan-caine-war-plans
• David Schulman on evil-in-the-west-bank
• Simon Theobald on irans-exiled-crown-prince-is-touting-himself-as-a-future-leader-is-this-whats-best-for-the-country
• Sue Thompson on sabah-s-borders-indonesia-joins-malaysia-philippines-dispute 
• Sean Turnell on myanmar-s-junta-next-fall

Wonk

• Jonathan Emerson-Pierce on without virtue freedom fails 
• Marco Giancotti on culture-is-the-mass-synchronization-of-framings Thanks Nick
• Dean Ashenden on a-learning-experience Thanks Nick
• the cutting floor on participation-without-power Thanks Nick
• Mathew Lamb on the-meeting-that-never-was Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on is-macroeconomics-a-science
• Tim Harford on the-paradox-of-work
• Zack Beauchamp on brazil-democracy-trump-bolsonaro-multiparty
• Martin Kear on why-are-the-phrases-globalise-the-intifada-and-from-the-river-to-the-sea-so-contested
• Ross Babbage on trump-s-international-strategy-becoming-clearer 
• Jenny Gordon on supreme-court-ruling-means-we-need-international-institutions-more-ever 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-understanding-bond-stock-price-comovements
• the conversable economist on did-negative-interest-rates-work , laying-off-workers-cheap-vs-expensive/
• renew economy on can-the-iea-survive-without-the-us-or-will-it-cave-in-to-the-fossil-fuel-lobby
• Angelica Duran-Martinez on violent-aftermath-of-mexicos-el-mencho-killing-follows-pattern-of-other-high-profile-cartel-hits
• Tyler Cowen on jason-furman-on-ai-contestability
• Kruggers on the-economics-of-faltering-fascism

General

• Michelle Moffitt on good-fungus-may-one-day-help-save-plants-from-bad-fungus-like-deadly-myrtle-rust-disease
• Melissa Licari on how-tourettes-causes-involuntary-outbursts-and-what-people-with-the-condition-want-you-to-know
• Ashna Gulati and Tara Murphy on a-cosmic-explosion-with-the-force-of-a-billion-suns-went-unseen-until-we-caught-its-echo
• Anais Moller on 20-billion-galaxies-new-survey-of-the-sky-will-reveal-the-universe-in-unprecedented-detail

Climate

• David Leitch on new-global-data-confirms-renewables-are-booming-and-not-just-in-the-big-economies 
• ocean acidification on blue-carbon-ecosystems-and-coral-reefs-as-coupled-nature-based-climate-solutions
• the conversable economist on effective-taxes-on-carbon-an-international-view
• skeptical science on fact-brief-do-solar-panels-work-in-cloudy-and-cold-climates , new_research
• Nikolai Drahos on hard-part-net-zero-mobilising-big-emitters-behind-reforms

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• computing-pi-by-flipping-a-coin
  
• giving-less-power-to-statistical-power 
  
• hey-self-publishers-you-appear-to-be-getting-scammed
  
• living-the-metascience-dream-or-nightmare-with-ai-for-science
  
• tufte-on-graphs-as-comparisons
  
• survey-statistics-sampling-to-assess-data-quality
  
• axel-f-meets-samuel-beckett-in-the-worlds-most-pointless-conversation
  
• journalists-and-the-people-they-interview-the-individual-contract-and-the-social-contract
  
• hey-what-the-froot-is-up-with-this-harvard-website
  
• statschat on out-of-warranty
• freakometric on identity theft as systematic risk
• Kaiser Fung on me-on-the-coffee-line , coffee-machine-math , beautiful-chart-to-behold

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• creating-high-opportunity-neighbourhoods-evidence-hope-vi-programme 
  
• gender-wage-gap-and-what-firms-have-do-it
  
• geopolitical-risk-and-supply-chain-diversification 
  
• ruling-rich-evidence-pro-wealthy-bias-us-supreme-court
  
• export-bans-werent-really-bans-how-russia-kept-importing-military-goods
  
• work-home-wage-premium
  
• tale-two-financial-centres-brexit-uncertainty-and-fragility-cross-border-capital 
  
• mortgage-borrower-actions-dampen-impact-higher-rates-monthly-payments
  
• how-xs-algorithm-shifts-political-attitudes
  
• geopolitics-evaluation-international-scientific-collaboration
  

Productivity

 Beware I am going to rant.

productivity is a very hard subject. It is hard to measure, it is hard to see in data and sometimes the data goes against your own biases.

Measuring it is very hard and in certain sectors it is impossible particularly in the non-market sector. How do you measure productivity of a doctor, teacher, nurse etc.

Generally most people agree multi-factor productivity is the way to go BUT it aint timely!

Firstly if I go to my Marxist hat the people who have responsibility for raising productivity are capitalists. If they do not p[rofits should fall IF they are in a competitive sector. This means competition policy should be top of the heap for any government. Micro-economics trumps everything in other words.

However if we go back into the past we find problems. A long time ago Roger Douglas was the Treasurer in New Zealand and introduced a lot of micro-economic reform. However as John Quiggin  pointed out at the time Australian productivity was superior to New Zealand's. This did not compute. Related to this is way back in the 80s it was found productivity was superior in  European nations with highly regulated labour markets than in counties that had flexible labour markets. We have found productivity has gone the wrong way as we gained a much more flexible labour marker. 

holy confusion batman.

There are a lot of words written on this topic but we still have no real idea of why it increased and why it stopped in Australia

what is the point with Iran

 The USA now has a lot of offensive power to attack Iran however why would they attack Iran?

We were told the US obliterates Iran's nuclear capabilities so was this true or not?

Another reason is to assist the protesters against the Mullahs who hold actual power yet we are not told how this would be done.

Yet another reason is to destroy Iran's missile capabilities particularly the long term ones.

Then there is how much has Iran built up their defences since Israel and the US attacked them. Clearly the russian weapons turned out to be hopeless last time but we are told the Chinese have leapt into the vacuum with some very good anti-aircraft defenses.

It could well be Trump has let his venezuelan operation go to his head.

We shall see.

It matters not because it will be illegal and the US will only have Israel as an ally.

This is not good for the USA, US or the World!!

I just saw Richard Hass make a very good point. The USA has plenty of bases in the Middle East and they are highly vulnerable to high speed missiles. I can imagine Iran would be thinking the USA would not want to hang around if a lot of US soldiers were killed and for nought. Trump would be pilloried from pillar to post!