Weather Report

 Weather Report was a jazz rock band and pretty good.

Around the Traps 20/3/26

It is time for Around the Traps again.   This has been compromised by something that occurred on my computer!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• kvetch on was-white-australia-an-aberration thanks nick
• Mark the Graph on australias-fuel-reserves
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling
• Kieran Hardy and Rebecca Wickes on we-cant-coerce-our-way-to-social-cohesion-heres-what-else-governments-should-be-doing
• John Quiggin on what-does-labor-stand-for-itself
• Antony Green on do-greens-voters-follow-how-to-votes
• John Hawkins on rba-narrowly-votes-to-lift-interest-rates-the-middle-east-war-may-determine-if-theres-more-to-come
• Robert Finkeldey on new-study-shows-global-democracy-hasnt-been-this-bad-since-1978-australia-should-be-worried
• Mark Beeson on australias-strategic-infantilisation-by-the-us-is-undermining-our-security-in-asia
• Nicki Hutley on rba-interest-rate-hike-australia-inflation-economy
• Daniel Flitton on trump-says-america-needs-no-one-s-help-australia-included
• Greg Jericho on australian-government-gas-industry-iran-war-fuel-crisis
• Hussein Dia on electric-vehicles-what-to-know-if-youre-considering-an-ev
• Kurt Sengul and Jordan McSwiney on what-does-one-nation-actually-believe-in
• Warwick Smith on is-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-an-act-of-intergenerational-bastardry
• Brent Jackson on australia-s-fuel-crisis-we-told-you-so

OZ climate

• brilliant-economics-offtake-deal-seals-delivery-of-australias-biggest-solar-battery-hybrid-project
  
• graph-of-the-day-batteries-overtake-gas-in-morning-peaks-in-australias-most-advanced-renewable-grid
  
• rise-of-the-big-orange-blob-australias-biggest-batteries-change-the-game-in-its-largest-isolated-grid
  
• fresh-blow-to-queensland-renewables-as-china-giant-scraps-plan-for-big-battery-called-in-by-state-lnp
  
• want-a-transition-with-less-transmission-and-cheaper-bills-new-report-says-offshore-wind-the-best-bet
  
• nsw-finesses-plan-to-boost-solar-battery-hybrids-as-it-prepares-massive-new-tenders-to-replace-coal
  
• australia-needs-to-kick-its-diesel-habit-and-a-timetable-to-electrify-machines-that-run-on-imported-oil
  
• how-australias-most-populous-state-can-quit-household-gas-while-also-cutting-electricity-demand
  
• home-battery-rebate-changes-could-mean-price-difference-of-thousands-of-dollars-regulator-warns 
  
• how-australias-most-populous-state-can-quit-household-gas-while-also-cutting-electricity-demand
  
• australia-needs-to-kick-its-diesel-habit-and-a-timetable-to-electrify-machines-that-run-on-imported-oil
  
• aemo-is-a-product-of-the-90s-its-governance-needs-to-reflect-the-world-were-in-now
  
• reversion-to-the-mean-corporate-ppa-market-cools-but-still-packs-a-punch
  
• more-wind-and-batteries-raise-hopes-for-electricity-bill-cuts-but-fossil-fuel-woes-could-still-bite
  
• what-fossil-madness-is-this-wars-cant-interrupt-flow-of-wind-and-the-sun-but-all-we-hear-is-drill-baby-drill
  
• Saman Gorgi on remote-communities-are-more-vulnerable-to-fuel-price-shocks-could-microgrids-help

Northern America

• David Smith on why-donald-trump-is-losing-the-war-at-home
• Kruggers on costs-and-benefits-from-the-new-energy , no-america-is-not-respected , is-it-time-to-drive-55-again
• Dahlia Lithwick on lie-trump-birthright-citizenship-supreme-court-case
• Brad De Long on crosspost-horace-dediu-the-most-brilliant-in-corporate-history
• Zack Beauchamp on joe-kent-iran-war-resign-trump-antisemitism
• Christopher Ingraham on democracy-trump-russia-putin-dictator-report
• Thomas Wright on iran-victory-trump 
• the conversable economist on the-us-postal-service-hits-its-debt-ceiling
• Kruggers on donald-trump-petropresident , a-whiff-of-stagflation
• new deal democrat on the-impact-of-the-iran-war-oil-price-spike-on-stagflation
• Anne Applebaum on trump-iran-war-allies
• Pegah Banihashemi and Paul Poast on why-iran-regime-wont-surrender
• Christina Cauterucci on cesar-chavez-dolores-huerta-sexual-abuse-allegations-2026
• Franklin Foer on trump-iran-democracy-protest

Europe

• Ben Seymour and Eszter Simon on why-the-next-escalation-in-the-iran-conflict-could-be-between-the-us-and-turkey
• Joshua Keating on iran-war-oil-russia-ukraine-putin
• Doug Muir on imperia-a-european-culture-story-part-3-and-last
• Chris Dillow on housing-costs-now-vs-1939

Asia

• Sanam Mahoozi on iran-and-the-arabian-peninsula-depend-on-desalination-plants-to-survive-why-water-has-become-a-target
• renew economy on no-wind-farms-in-china-trump-claim-torched-by-record-year-of-new-wind-capacity-mostly-in-china
• Feraz Ockali and Yelena Biberman on other-war-world-ignoring
• Saqlain Rizve on bengali-identity-changing-across-india-bangladesh
• James Dwyer on is-israel-running-low-on-missile-interceptors-how-long-can-it-withstand-irans-retaliatory-attacks
• Hassan Golipour and Mohammad Farzenargen on real-estate-powered-dubais-rise-as-a-magnet-for-expats-can-its-brand-survive-this-war
• Henry Storey on behind-japan-s-us-investment-pledge-china-problem
• Amin Saikal on as-the-war-drags-on-what-does-victory-look-like-for-the-us-israel-and-iran
• Amir Arian on of-fire-and-rain-iran-war
• Orly Noy on longing-for-my-tehran-iran-war
• Ruth Margalit on israels-gulf-state-gamble-in-the-iran-war
• Sudarsan Raghavan on the-limits-of-irans-proxy-empire
• Mohd Yunus on the-interpreter/southeast-asia-paying-environmental-price-rare-earth-boom
• Robert Walker on beware-long-reach-iran-war-asia-s-food-systems
• Patrick Wintour on ignorance-misunderstanding-obfuscation-iran-nuclear-talks-trump
• home and away on the-strait-of-hormuz-it-must-be-open-for-all-or-closed-for-all
• Mariam Farida on as-israel-invades-again-lebanon-faces-more-turmoil-and-possible-civil-war-here-are-3-ways-this-could-go
• Jing Ge on japan-s-bid-build-de-chinafied-rare-earth-supply-system-australia-brazil-board

Wonk

• riggery pokery on theyre-taking-the-peace Thanks Nick
• Quay Ma on design-is-the-new-political-economy thanks nick
• Craig Newman et al on citizens in democratic countries have more benevolent traits less malevolent traits  and greater well being  Thanks Nick
• Uri Gal on tech-companies-are-blaming-massive-layoffs-on-ai-whats-really-going-on
• Zachary Aman on oil-petrol-gasoline-a-chemical-engineer-explains-how-crude-turns-into-fuel
• noahpinion on the-future-isnt-what-it-used-to-be , the-revenge-of-macroeconomics , save-us-digital-cronkite
• Marcus Colla on mirror-future
• Uri Gai on tech-companies-are-blaming-massive-layoffs-on-ai-whats-really-going-on
• Lyndsey Collins-Praino on largest-ever-parkinsons-study-shows-how-symptoms-differ-between-men-and-women
• the conversable economist on the-wealth-of-nations-whats-it-all-about , snapshots-of-cross-border-financial-centers
• Brad De Long on rashomon-ai-fear-hype-and-platform-power
• Shannon Bosch on attacks-on-hospitals-are-surging-in-war-zones-what-do-the-laws-of-war-say-about-protecting-them
• James Quach on a-world-first-quantum-battery-charges-faster-when-it-gets-bigger-but-its-tiny-and-only-lasts-nanoseconds
• Gockay Balci and Ebru Surucu-Balci on from-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-malacca-global-trade-relies-almost-entirely-on-these-five-narrow-waterways
• Mark the Graph on the-most-dangerous-scenario-and-why-it-explains-this-war
• Tyler Cowen on who-profits-from-prediction-markets , some-simple-economics-of-ai
• Miah Hammond-Errey on when-war-reaches-cloud-ai-becomes-target
• understanding AI on software-didnt-eat-the-world Thanks Brad
• Mathew Burkholder on evangelical-holy-war-why-some-christians-think-trump-will-end-the-world
• Christopher Watterson on nuclear-ban-treaty-isn-t-winning-over-states-matter

General

• Tim Harford on ping-the-whatsapps-that-should-have-been-an-email

Climate

• skeptical science on iran-war-cost-of-fossil-fuel-economy ,do-middle-earth-and-westeros-make-sense , new_research
• open mind on the-does-climate-working-group
• Bill McKibben on the-iran-war-is-another-reason-to-quit-oil
• ocean acidification on contrasting-effects-of-river-and-erosion-derived-inputs-on-arctic-ocean-acidification , influence-of-ocean-warming-and-acidification-on-juveniles-of-the-true-giant-clam-tridacna-gigas-and-its-microalgal-symbionts
• real climate on the-puzzling-pleistocene

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-effect-of-high-tech-statistical-analysis-on-the-p-values-of-top-researchers
  
• the-paradox-of-derivatives-and-integrals
  
• its-speciation-time
  
• which-means-that-im-qualified-to-write-books-on-the-topic-and-go-on-npr-regularly-and-give-ted-talks-and-advise-the-government-but-thats-about-it
  
• more-reasons-to-hate-on-prediction-markets
  
• fascist-academics-today-and-communist-academics-in-the-1930s-1950s
  
• survey-statistics-individualism-doesnt-work-even-when-weighted
  
• i-disagree-with-the-wikipedia-definition-of-bayesian-statistics-the-merriam-webster-definition-is-much-better
  
• a-data-model-is-not-just-a-likelihood
  
• the conversable economist on statgpt-the-dangers-of-asking-ai-about-statistics
• freakometrics on decomposing probabilistic scores
• Kaiser Fung on getting-metrics-right-is-half-the-battle
• statschat on trashed

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Gaby Hinscliff on power-to-the-people Thanks Nick
• econjeff on book-great-oom-improbable-birth-of-yoga
• James Ley et al on 5-books-to-help-you-understand-iran-recommended-by-experts
• Tyler Cowen on recession

Vox wonk

• carbon-pricing-and-inequality-understanding-distributional-costs-climate-policy 
  
• outside-how-international-manager-rotations-narrow-gender-pay-gap-and-change-cultural 
  
• how-rising-bank-lending-non-bank-financial-institutions-reallocates-credit-away-firms 
  
• safe-until-crisis-what-300-years-wars-reveal-about-government-debt-safety 
  
• europe-2050-geometries-peace-power-and-prosperity 
  
• prize-kill-management-lessons-german-air-force-wwii
  
• measuring-national-technological-trajectories-using-200-years-international-patent 
  
• causal-evidence-cost-living-shocks-how-energy-crisis-affected-energy-demand-labour 
  
• decentralisation-money-contracts-and-finance-using-blockchain
  
• forward-looking-labour-supply-lessons-polands-pension-reform
  
• tall-buildings-lead-more-compact-and-productive-cities
  
• too-fast-adjust-adoption-speed-and-permanent-cost-ai-transitions
  

The RBA and other things

 RBA

The RBA increased interest rates. I only thought the question was would it be 25 or 50 points. I cannot believe 4 people voted to keep rates on hold. The trimmed mean is well above the target rate. It has to come down.Our economic speed limit is much lower these days so GDP has to slow. Now i would prefer the SGC temoraliy be increased rather than increase interest rates as it hit immediately and is much more equitable but that aint possible.

Budget

We have been told a few things but it is clear spending has to be cut and some taxes need to rise and others cut. The NDIS needs to get back to basics until we can afford it. The government also needs to figure out how it can facilitate productivity.

Petrol

Yeah I talked about this on monday but it is stil lthe case we have plenty of supply. what is the problem is excessive demand in otherwise panic buying. It is the cow cockies and miners who are at fault. They admit they are installing more petrol/diesel but deny panic buying. The figures say otherwise.

Queensland

up there you are not allowed to say rivers to the sea or globalise the intifada. This is a disgrace. If this occurs in NSW I am changing the  name of this blog!

Matildas

They are in the final of the Asian cup and are playing Japan. I doubt they will win ( but I hope they do) but can we just admit female football simply lacks the skill we observe in real football. the ball control, the change of direction, the magic ball through the defence etc is simply not there.

Intifada

Let us get one thing straight. The bonda massacre was horrific and done by evil people. However it was done by people who supported and were inspired by ISIS. ISIA has no sympathy whatsoever for Palestinians. They are either christians or shia muslims. They hate both.  People who assert chants about the intifada are associated with the bondi massacre are peddling either ignorance of the highest order or lies to conflate the massacre with the  what is occurring in Gaza and the West Bank. 
Either way it is evil.

no-one can trust Trump

 Donald Trump launched an illegal war on Iran ( Gerard Henderson please note). He was warned about the strait of homuz but either ignored, did not understand or forgot it because of his cognitive decline.

The chickens have come back to roost. He needs help because Iran can stop tankers leaving the strait of hormuz. He threatens his nato allies if they do not help. The German chancellor was right on two fronts. This is his war and NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. It cannot be invoked for an offensive action. Trump is not impressed with us either. He wants Australia to help him out as well.

Let us just have a think how Trump treats allies. He  imposed illegal tariffs on them, He said he wanted to take Greenland, He is supporting neo-nazi parties in  Europe as well as authoritarians in hungary and slovakia, he gets rid of sanctions on russia and of course he clearly favours russia in their invasion of ukraine. Just remember the existential threat to europe is russia not iran and Trump is making that worse not better.

Thus europe cannot depend on the USA whilst trump is in office and nor can we. Mark Beeson writes on this related matter.

Trump is a transactional man. He will do something for you if you do something for him. Treaties mean nothing to him nor do allies. An intelligent man would realise all his mistakes thus far and change.Alas Trump is not an intelligent  man and worse is in patent cognitive decline.

Russia and Putin are the big winners from this debacle and the world is not a safer place.

Just for Trump.

Excursion  and Incursion. Trump is clearly confused about both. This shows how stupid he is and he cognitive decline.

I should also add another example of Trump's lying. He claimed an ex-president agreed with is action. Only problem all living ex-presidents have denied talking to him.

OZ stuff

 It aint city slickers that are panicking

I have to admit I thought it were us city slickers buying up gerry cans and filling them with petrol that was causing demand for petrol to be astronomical. It aint. It is the farmers and miners who are doing it and then of course complaining about a lack of petrol. Farmers are saying they are merely stocking up. No. If that was occurring demand would not be strongly up ( which is very strange given the rise in prices). The government cannot tell the truth because we also know farmers are the salt of the earth and cannot be criticised.

RBA

The RBA will increase rates today. The only question is will it be 25 or 50 points. I suspect 25 points because surely the 'Iran war' cannot last. ( I am do not call me shirley again. flying high joke).

Definitions mean something

All those people who are part of the jewish lobby who argued for a stupid definition of anti-semitism (which included criticism of the Israeli government) are now arguing against a definition of islamophobia where they would find it hard to criticise islam or their version of it. no self awareness and no sense of irony.

Is Trump a Russian agent and other things US

 We know Trump is not very intelligent (euphemism) but no-one could understand why he is so 'sympathetic' of Putin's  positions. We can all recall his answer to Jonathan Lemaire where he trusted Putin over his own security advice on what russia did during the 2016. The senate produced an unanimous voluminous report which showed this chaired by none other than Marco Rubio.

We  also know Trump selects people on loyalty and how they look on TV over competence however what are we to make of the complete lack of strategy on declaring war ( illegally) on Iran. Any bozo knows Iran would ensure few tankers would go through. They only have to threaten for insurance to dissolve yet no-one though of this. They now are pleading for help from other countries. This is war 101 yet Trump and Hesgeth were sop incompetent they did not think of this. what does Trump do withdraw the sanctions on russian oil and of course the oil price which Russia is consumed by rises dramatically.  how can you declare war on a country and then rely on maps that are 10 years out od date!

If only Trump could think he would have gotten Western 'allies' on board and slowly increased oil reserves and planned for Iranian 'control ' of the strait of hormuz.

Russia has also assisted Iran in their use of drones and missiles through their intelligence. Yet again Trump trusts Putin and not his own intelligence services!

What trump doesn't seem to understand is they want to completely destroy their nuclear industry and control the strait of hormuz then ground troops will be needed!

While we are on this can  someone explain to Trump the difference between an excursion and an incursion as he clearly has no idea.

Only a complete moron would blame the country invaded for a war they ncver wanted. Only a compromised person would give preference to a country they are at war with over a country trying to help overcoming Iran's drones.

The DOJ has lost about 8,000 people the FBI has also lost a lot of people  so their intelligence against terrorism is very limited. That is what occurs when you ignore competence.

Noem has gone a truly incompetent pick but a bimbo nevertheless. This is bad for Bondi who has no cover now.

I might close this by merely stating When Trump won last time ( 2016) more by luck ( or should I say comey) and had complete authority. The people soon changed that at the midterms given how chaotic Trump was. He is even worse this time probably due to his cognitive deterioration.

It is very deepressing

poco