Monday, 18 May 2026

domestic politcs

 A few things have caught my eye.

tobaccy tax

The critics have lined up and are saying the g\overnment must cut the tobacco excise to reduce the blackmarket in this good. hold on Surely black market tobacco will always be cheaper then legal tobacco. That's right no matter how much you cut the escise black market tobacco will always be cheaper.

Notice how this argument completely misses out on the supply side. A lot of stores have opened up selling black market tobacco amongst other things. It reminds somewhat of my youth where videeo stores would sell black market porno videos.

Death taxes

This is quite a stretch. critics are alleging that under a trust a kid or kiddies will be taxed if both parents die BEFORE they 'come of age'. Now to be fair I am all in favour of death duties but this isn't that. This is in the extremely unusual situation of both parents dying the children would not get all the money the parents have left. My understanding this occurs if there is no trust anyway as children can only have limited income until they are taxed.

Negative gearing

Negative gearing where interest payments are higher than the rent received only encourages speculation not investment. An investor would require positive gearing. Read Saul Eslake.

Just to end on a related subject Mark the Graph on showing the budget in pictures


Yikes how could I forget Immigration.

Both the LNP and one nation want immigration slashed. Okay first hit are universities. Well they say Australian tertiary institutions should only be for australians. Okay that means more payments to them for the government because aussie students unlike overseas students are NOT full fee paying students. This is a lot of money. 

Most industries in regional australia are reliant on immigrants and/or people with tourists visas (backpackers for example). The building trade needs immigrants to continue to thrive. Count them out and it becomes harder to build houses. Immigrants also bring in more tax revenue than any take in benefits.


Saul Eslake again on a lot

Sunday, 17 May 2026

Wars

 Russia/Ukraine

My how this has changed. Russia is now suffering shortages from soldiers, ammunition, petrol etc. Most former military people like Ben Hodges, Mick Ryan, David Petraeus etc are now saying russia cannot win. Ukraine has clearly learnt from their unsuccessful advances in previous years and their use of drones and drone technology have them being world class. They are killing russians in enormous numbers and are causing russian many troubles with their supplies etc. Crimea is looking  extremely vulnerable! Ukraine is not allowing russia supply crimea with anything much at all.

All this with hardly any support from the USA. The only problem appears to be war talk from Belarus.This could only be a panic move from Putin to move some Ukrainian soldiers from where they are.

Ukraine have clearly learnt from their mistakes and innovate to the nth degree. russia on the other hand carry on no matter what.


USA/Iran

Two great articles:

Trump like Putin severely underestimated his enemy. As Kagan  points out ( and I have stated before) Trump can only achieve his aims by having boots on the ground. That is highly risky politically. Add in the strait of homuz restricting traffic and the political cost to trump is far higher than those in charge in Iran. The mid-terms are coming. There are no fair dinkum elections in iran and if people protest they get killed.

Iran do not care if they upend the world economy if it harms the USA. Threats to Iran by trump have little effect as they have taken the best the USA can do and are still  going well. The US has wasted ammunition on Iran for nought and now have to plat catch up on producing more just when they are struggling to do so.

Their aim is to attack the US's gulf allies if the US attacks them. This has a two fold aim. firstly it is very bad for the world economy. It also destroys most gulf countries business model. No wonder they are cheesed off at trump!

From Iran's point of view they now know how important the strait of hormuz is to world trade. They understand the importance of asymmetric warfare is from the Russia/Ukraine war. They understand the weaknesses of the Gulf states and finally they now know they must possess a nuke otherwise these attacks will occur infinitum. ( The north korea strategy.)

Aals for the West the USA elected a cognitively challenged person of extremely low intellect who has the concentration of a cocker spaniel. Threats of more bombings are meaningless. What are they going to bomb???


Cuba

Trump is threatening cuba. Indeed some might say by blocking any oil he is committing a war crime as people would have dies and will die from a lack of electricity. This is bad for Cuba obviously and the only thing the embargo MIGHT do is to ignite popular feeling against the government. Whether this can be successful in toppling a government which does not have elections is aanother thing.

Thursday, 14 May 2026

Around the Traps 15/5/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Tuesday, 12 May 2026

the Budget

 Okay here are a few views:

(If any others come in late I will  link them as well.)
I agree with all three and like ross Gittins am pleasantly surprised by the budget.
A couple of points.
  1. It is about time someone di something about CGT and negative gearing ever since howard and costello gave first home buyers the middle finger. The benefits are highly skewed towards very high income earners See
  2. A lot of people are missing the productivity improvements. they are somewhat nebulous as the  programs have few figures etc but they are substantive.
  3. The structural deficit improves which means there is mild contraction in fiscal policy and overall a deficit of only 1% of GDP is small just ask the yanks.
  4. The improvement in fiscal policy relies a lot on NDIS cutbacks. Will the pollies have the backbone for it. however the improvements are more long term rather than short or even medium term

I laughed at Mark Bouris's reaction. Can someone ask him how many negatively eared properties he has please. It is a lot!!!

Monday, 11 May 2026

Antony Green on Farrer

 I have put this article on yesterday's post but on reflection it deserves a post of its own.

Here it is

farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition

this is easily the most thoughtful piece on the result I have read. The most basic message. One Nation is an electoral threat to the ALP BUT they are an existential threat to the LNP!!!


Sunday, 10 May 2026

The Farrer by-election.

 Before I start here are some articles:


Let us put this into perspective. One Nation has taken a seat from Liberal heartland and made it a safe one nation seat.
This is despite a miserable campaign from their candidate and one nation having to 'release from staff a convicted rapist. ( Imagine the furore if albo had to get rid of an convicted rapist on their staff!).

Nothing stuck. voters did not care

The independent candidate was labelled a teal because wait for it she took some money from climate 200. Did her policies mirror those of Teal mp's? Well no.
Thus you had sheer hypocrisy. Criticising the one nation candidate was a personal attack but doing it to the independent candidate was fair game.

This result means that in the regions there is no safe Liberal or National seat. One Nation on this result will take a lot of 'safe' LNP seats. ( remember what I said about Littleproud resigning!). The Nationals will become a rump party!
The more the Liberals ( and Nationals) advocate one nation type policies the more their safe city seats become 'Tealy'.

Do the math. It is possible one nation becomes the largest party after the next election. However one problem for one nation is that preferences will flow to them from either the Liberals or Nationals in regional australia however it is doubtful this will be as consistent in the outer western seats. Just remember a person voting Liberal will know preferences is now not just an academic exercise!

The major question now is whether voters will overlook one nation quirks and failures. They clearly did not do this with Farley and with at least one candidate in the SA election. At present they do not get interviewed by anyone who is not seen as sympathetic to them.

We live in interesting times

Late but a great article. Antony Green on farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition

Thursday, 7 May 2026

Around the Traps 8/5/26

 it is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia


Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk