Around the Traps 11/6/21

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Frank Bongiorno on how-the-pandemic-has-brought-out-the-worst-and-the-best-in-australians-and-their-governments
• Ross Gittins on morrison-needs-guts-to-save-business-and-unions-from-folly, my-new-hero-mathias-cormann-now-valiant-for-the-truth
• Greg Jericho on australia-looks-set-to-lose-its-opportunity-to-decouple-gdp-growth-from-carbon-emissions
• Rupert Posner and Simon Graham on tasmanias-reached-net-zero-emissions-and-100-renewables-but-climate-action-doesnt-stop-there
• John Quiggin on labor-and-its-imaginary-friends-why-the-partys-traditional-core-is-not-an-election-winner
• renew economy on solar-overtakes-wind-as-the-new-queen-of-australian-renewables-in-2020-2, as-battery-costs-tumble-coalition-puts-australia-on-most-expensive-energy-path, industry-slams-taylors-favoured-coal-subsidy-in-response-to-esb-market-options
• Croaking Cassandra on colonial-constructs
• Stephen Duckett on medicare-needs-to-change-with-the-times-but-rushing-this-could-leave-patients-with-higher-gap-fees
• Peter Martin on other-australians-earn-nothing-like-what-you-think-if-youre-on-59-538-youre-typical
• Adam Morton on morrison-governments-600m-gas-power-plant-at-kurri-kurri-not-needed-and-wont-cover-costs-analysts-say
• Bjorn Sturmberg et al on check-your-mirrors-3-things-rooftop-solar-can-teach-us-about-australias-electric-car-rollout
• Institutional Economics on the-housing-market-hodl
• Wheihau Zhou and Markus Wagner on morrisons-dilemma-australia-needs-a-dual-strategy-for-its-trade-relationship-with-china
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-its-not-the-reserve-banks-job-to-worry-about-housing-prices
• Hugh Saddler and Frank Jotsko on tracking-the-transition-the-forgotten-emissions-undoing-the-work-of-australias-renewable-energy-boom
• Michelle Grattan on grattan-on-friday-scott-morrisons-quest-to-be-a-biden-bestie

Northern America

• Marayam Gamar on what-the-fauci-gate-emails-tell-us-about-covid-19-and-american-politics-trump
• Mainly Macro on how-should-we-think-about-talk-of-an-impending-inflationary-spiral-in-the-USA
• noahopinion on americas-scarcity-mindset, we-arent-going-to-defund-the-police-nor-should-we
• Erin Hurley on bidens-agenda-anything-but-normal
• New Deal Democrat on coronavirus-dashboard-for-june-7-a-tale-of-two-pandemics-the-vaccinated-states-vs-the-idiotic-states
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Medonca on bidenomics-scales-up-california-capitalism Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show.-increased-inflation-in-may

Europe

• Tom McTague on boris-johnson-minister-of-chaos

Asia

• Rodger Shanahan on narrowing-field-iran-s-election
• Jason Lim on malaysia-no-southeast-asian-nation-should-be-bullied-china
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-tariffs-affect-chinas-exports
• David Shulman on gaza-cracks-israeli-consensus
• David Brewster on rising-bangladesh-starts-exert-its-regional-power
• Nicola Williams on myanmar-pushes-asean-brink
• Neil Thomas on china-overtakes-america-presidential-diplomacy

Wonk

• Adrian Esteman on why-are-some-covid-test-results-false-positives-and-how-common-are-they
• Vanessa Bryant et al on the-mystery-of-long-covid-up-to-1-in-3-people-who-catch-the-virus-suffer-for-months-heres-what-we-know-so-far
• Tim Harford on can-you-really-change-who-you-are
• Nick Rowe on bitcoin-as-paygo-pension-plan-and-land
• Uneasy Money on my-conversation-about-hawtrey-with-the-hawtrey-study-group
• Umair Irfan on lab-leak-covid-19-coronavirus-hypothesis-wuhan-virology-china
• Paul Haskall-Dowland on fastly-global-internet-outage-why-did-so-many-sites-go-down-and-what-is-a-cdn-anyway
• David Tuffley on how-an-app-to-decrypt-criminal-messages-was-born-over-a-few-beers-with-the-fbi
• and Then Theres Physics on some-reflections-on-corona-truth-wars
• Michael Marshall on the four most urgent questions about long covid Thanks Tyler Cowen
• James Jin Kang and Pauul Haskall-Dowland on how-rain-wind-heat-and-other-heavy-weather-can-affect-your-internet-connection
• stumbling and mumbling on on-economic-intuitions
• the conversable economist on taxation-tales-and-the-window-tax

General

• Kirsty Short on whats-the-delta-covid-variant-found-in-melbourne-is-it-more-infectious-and-does-it-spread-more-in-kids-a-virologist-explains
• Scott Hocknull on introducing-australotitan-australias-largest-dinosaur-yet-spanned-the-length-of-2-buses

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on declaring-a-climate-emergency
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-up-0012-from-april
• Thomas Mortlock et al on climate-change-is-making-ocean-waves-more-powerful-threatening-to-erode-many-coastlines

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• he-wants-to-test-whether-his-distribution-has-infinite-variance-i-have-other-ideas
  
• 4-years-of-an-unpopular-republican-president-bad-news-for-republican-support-among-young-voters-continuation-of-unprecedented-generation-gap-im-not-sure-what-this-implies-for-politics
  
• ai-promised-to-revolutionize-radiology-but-so-far-its-failing
  
• whos-afraid
  
• about-those-claims-that-the-election-forecasts-hurt-the-democrats-in-november
  
• when-mcmc-fails-the-advice-were-giving-is-wrong-heres-what-we-you-should-be-doing-instead-hint-its-all-about-the-folk-theorem
  
• this-system-too-often-rewards-cronyism-rather-than-hard-work-or-creativity-and-perpetuates-the-gross-inequalities-in-representation
  
• Kaiser Fung on sizing-up-the-pandemic, what-do-we-know-about-the-sinopharm-vaccine-1, adolescent-trial-showcases-pre-registration-and-the-law-of-small-numbers, a-citizen-petition

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• measuring-innovation
  
• albert-hirschman
  
• why-is-there-no-government-chief-anthropologist
  
• noahopinion on science-fiction-novels-for-economists
• Andrew Gelman on leaving-a-dolls-house-by-claire-bloom

Vox Wonk

• changing-nature-capital-flows
  
• transmission-mechanism-corporate-sector-purchase-programme
  
• regional-firm-subsidies-direct-spillover-and-welfare-effects
  
• food-insecurity-potentially-underrated-collateral-damage-pandemic
  
• head-start-s-long-run-impacts-human-capital-and-labour-market-outcomes
  
• earnings-inequality-and-dynamics-presence-informality
  
• how-households-self-insure-against-job-loss
  
• heterogenous-effects-covid-19-households-financial-situation-and-consumption
  
• how-households-self-insure-against-job-loss
  
• disciplining-effect-supervisory-scrutiny-eu-wide-stress-test
  
• 2020-trade-impact-covid-19-pandemic
  
• large-trade-shocks-and-economic-crises
  
• fiscal-rules-european-monetary-union
  
• how-russian-banks-anticipated-and-dealt-global-financial-sanctions
  

Scott Morrrison does a 180 degree turn

 It seems like only yesterday Scott Morrison was railing against  the WTO, WHO et al and indeed implying they were a threat to democracy. When Trump was curbing the WTO appellant powers our government did stuff all.

Two things occurred.

Trump was decisively beaten in the Presidential election. Those Trump lite statements looked pretty stupid after this

China started a trade war with Australia and attempted to intimidate us. Those Trump lite statements looked even more stupid when this occurred.

Australia is a small trading nation. We have always needed a rules based system to thrive as a nation. Saying and doing nothing when that dolt Trump was attempting to destroy the WTO was supremely stupid.

It will take time for the WTO to gat back to where it was lat alone move forward but you reap what you sow. 

Let us hope The present government will consistently support the above position.

Let the Sri Lankans go back to their QLD home

 We learnt yesterday of the woeful treatment to the youngest of the Sri Lankan family who have been denied refugee status. ( Tamils are safe in Sri Lanka. Say it aint so  joe .)  See HERE as well

This treatment of the family has been poor. Simply let them go back to the QLD town where they lived previously and whose citizens want them back.

some TV Shows

 Time for some not so serious stuff. When I was recovering from my heart attack I found that I had read most of the books I wanted to read from the library.

This meant watching TV more than I used to.

Blue Bloods.  I started watching this series not expecting to like it however it is a very good series. tom Selleck is the big star and is good but everyone else is as well. Why didn't TEN start from series 1!!!

Diagnosis Murder . This is an old but very enjoyable series. It features three generations of Van Dykes. they are all good as well. Afterall who actually dislikes Dick Van Dyke. all the characters are good and there is chemistry between them.

NCIS. I am afraid this series is on its last legs. It was good when the Characters Tony and Zhive were central to the series. The series then had great chemistry. With their leaving the series has lost whatever it had previously. Mark Harmon's acting is shown up badly without Weatherly there to obscure it. He looks as though he should retire. David McCallum looks as though he should be in the grave. a tragedy.

Fauci

 Dr Fauci seems to have gotten himself into trouble about certain e-mails that were released.

I have searched long and hard for an e-mail that showed up his 'guilt'. I have not found one yet. Fox news for example just uses generalisations. See HERE for example, If anyone can assist me then I will link it. THIS is a good summary of all of it. Essentially Fauci never said a leak from the Wuhan lab could not have occurred it was simply unlikely.

As for where covid came from try THIS. You need to go to around the 25 minute mark. Peter White who went to China and examined all the evidence  makes two points. We will never know where exactly covid came from . He puts a leak from the Wuhan lab at around 10%.!!

Around the Traps 4/6/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Catherine Bennett on its-time-for-australia-to-drop-its-phased-approach-to-the-vaccine-rollout, were-seeing-more-casual-covid-transmission-but-is-that-because-of-the-variant-or-better-case-tracking
• Peter Martin on going-electric-and-banning-new-petrol-cars-could-be-the-next-light-bulb-moment
• Ross Gittins on top-economists-think-much-further-ahead-than-morrison, smaller-government-is-dogging-our-efforts-to-beat-the-pandemic
• Greg Jericho on there-is-no-rhythm-in-australias-economy-just-uncertainty-mixed-with-hope, gdp-figures-dont-need-much-spin-but-australias-economys-still-100bn-smaller-than-expected
• Dennis Muller onscott-free-no-more-why-the-prime-ministers-smooth-media-run-may-be-coming-to-an-end
• Michelle Grattan on view-from-the-hill-porter-decides-its-time-to-fold-em-in-abc-defamation-case
• renew economy on solar-and-wind-projects-fear-big-delays-from-new-one-at-a-time-connection-rules, we-will-need-more-wind-than-solar-for-100-pct-renewables-and-lots-of-storage, nsw-calls-for-8000mw-of-wind-solar-and-storage-proposals-for-new-england
• Peter Martin on the-four-gdp-graphs-that-show-us-roaring-out-of-recession-pre-lockdown
• Andreas Chai et al on australias-closed-border-is-costing-the-economy-36-5-million-a-day
• Tony Blakely et al on hotel-quarantine-causes-1-outbreak-for-every-204-infected-travellers-its-far-from-fit-for-purpose
• Croaking Cassandra on participating-in-the-labour-market-2

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on output-gaps-survey-of-professional-forecasters-vs-troika, guest-contribution-policy-rules-and-forward-guidance-following-the-covid-19-recession
• noahopinion on that-time-conservatives-canceled, are-we-better-off
• Robert Waldmann on qe-after-action-report, larry-summers-and-the-growth-convincing-argument
• German Lopez on covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-reasons-why
• Elliot Hannan on democrat-win-stansbury-new-mexico-house-special-election-congress
• McKay Coppins on biden-shapiro-trump-conservative-publishing Thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on voting-rights-democracy-texas-georgia-suppression-jim-crow-supreme-court-sb7
• Adam Serwer on capitol-rioters-won

Europe

• Mainly Macro on cummings-puzzle-about-delayed-lockdowns, worried-about-another-covid-wave
• stumbling and mumbling on playing-the-victim

Asia

• Barkley Rosser on the-trumpification-of-xi-jinping
• Rahul Misra on china-s-never-ending-tibet-paranoia
• Brad De Long on xi-jinping-quest-for-centralization-destined-for-failure-by-j-bradford-delong-2021-06
• Soo Kim on moons-last-best-chance-biden-summit
• noahopinion on how-to-criticize-china-without-abetting-racism

Wonk

• Fabiola Cineas on tulsa-race-massacre
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-statistics-and-the-pandemic
• Tim Harford on point-of-order-the-use-and-abuse-of-debating
• Tyler Cowen on why-the-lab-leak-theory-matters
• stumbling and mumbling on full-employment-capitalism-and-beyond
• Catherine Renshaw on r2p-idea-whose-time-never-comes

General

• Kylie Quinn and Jennifer Juno on how-long-do-covid-vaccines-take-to-start-working
• Mark Byron on guide-to-the-classics-samuel-becketts-waiting-for-godot-a-tragicomedy-for-our-times

Climate

• Jacquiline Peel et al on four-seismic-climate-wins-show-big-oil-gas-and-coal-are-running-out-of-places-to-hide
• Stochastic Trend on do-energy-efficiency-improvements

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-can-the-anthropic-principle-tell-us-about-visualization
  
• we-should-all-routinely-criticize-our-own-work
  
• we-should-all-routinely-criticize-our-own-work
  
• still-cited-only-3-times
  
• your-tax-dollars-at-work-junk-social-science-edition
  
• more-institutional-failure-by-universities-that-refuse-to-grapple-with-potential-research-misconduct-by-their-faculty
  
• this-one-has-nothing-to-do-with-jamaican-beef-patties
  
• rasslin-over-writin-teachin
  
• why-i-blog-about-apparent-problems-in-science
  
• impressions-of-differential-privacy-for-supreme-court-justices
  
• when-does-a-misunderstanding-reach-the-point-where-it-is-recognized-to-be-flat-out-ridiculous
  
• Kaiser Fung on if-x-causes-y-does-it-follow-that-x-and-y-are-correlated , instant-classic-for-science-communications-students, science-politics-or-business
• statschat on how-not-to-track-vaccine-attitudes

Econometrics

• econometric sense on science-communication-for-business

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• humanomics-yes-please
  
• public-policy-public-interest
  
• John West on putting-pandemic-perspective
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• skeptical science on a critical review of Steven Koonin's unsettled

Vox Wonk

• reliability-public-debt-forecasts
  
• trade-unions-america-times-they-are-changin
  
• financial-integration-and-structure-emu-during-corona-crisis
  
• state-state-decisions-shutdowns-minimise-covid-s-economic-impact
  
• regulating-personal-data-linking-different-models-digital-services-trade
  
• emerging-fiscal-union-needs-solid-foundation
  
• re-evaluating-sources-recent-productivity-slowdown
  
• how-public-health-failures-boosted-covid-19-vaccine-scepticism
  
• understanding-how-central-banks-use-their-balance-sheets
  
• differing-effects-globalisation-trade-versus-migration
  
• macroprudential-policy-issues-arising-low-interest-rate-environment
  
• why-banks-differ-pace-adoption-new-technology
  
• fdi-big-trouble-insights-27th-global-trade-alert-report
  
• fiscal-austerity-intensifies-increase-inequality-after-pandemics
  
• monetary-policy-and-central-banking-covid-era-new-ebook
  

Kaiser Fung talks correlation

 A short but highly educational article by the highly esteemed Kaiser Fung on correlation.