Warren Mundine

The Prime minister  is trying to parachute Warren Mundine into the seat of Gilmore in NSW.

This is a big call on the part of Scott Morrison. It is a captain's call. Calls that are mistakes tend to be highlighted.
So is this a mistake?

Mundine has no connection to the electorate whatever.
Mundine is not a 'star' candidate either. Having seen him on the ABC show The Drum various times he has ranged from inarticulate to embarrassing.  Moreover he was at one tine President of the ALP. It seems the only reason he left was he was unsuccessful in gaining  preselection in both the Senate and the house of representatives.
The local preselectors in Gilmour who preselected Grant Schultz appear to be up in arms. Schultz has said he will run as an independent.

All in all not a great look for the Liberal party nor for the Prime Minister's political nous

Coal power's poor future

Here we go again.

 Coal has a poor future in electricity.
Why you ask.
Easy peezy.

First is cost. As I outlined last November new solar is now the same cost as EXISTING coal. It is half the cost of NEW coal power stations. South Australian experience.

Second is reliability. the demand for electricity is highest on stinking hot days. Guess what. On these same days units at coal powered power stations break down regularly .  See HERE

For anyone yo invest in a coal powered power station you would need a public subsidy for the plant's life of 50 years.  That is a vote winner

Grand Designs

Grand Designs is a television series on the ABC.

The link tells you all about the show.

I really enjoy it. Before discussing I need to say there is an Aussie and Kiwi version of the show.
They do not work for two reasons.
1) Kevin McCloud is unique. He understands what the viewers want. It isn't just building a home

2) He shows us very different kinds of homes. for example i can think of making a home in a cave, Making a home in a circular way like mollusc and another one which used a former dairy to as its basis. This simply has not occurred in the antipodean versions.

I am finding i like it so much I am taping it. My only criticism is it goes too long.

Around the Traps 18/1/16

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nicky Ison on australia-could-hit-100-renewables-much-sooner-than-most-people-think
• Stuart Khan on how-is-oxygen-sucked-out-of-our-waterways
• Susan Thorp on superannuation-why-we-stick-with-the-duds
• Geoff Warren on the-productivity-commission-inquiry-was-just-the-start-its-time-for-a-broader-review-of-super-and-how-much-it-is-needed
• Croaking Cassandra on material-progress-how-very-recent,how-are-wage-earners-doing, productivity-any-hope-from-treasury, looking-at-some-fiscal-data, perhaps-councils-could-do-the-basics-right, stress-tests-and-bank-capital, cowering-and-contemptible
• Nick Gruen on smsf-regulation-is-appropriate-productivity-commission-shock-you-wont-believe, productivity-commission-super-report-apply-the-medicare-approach-to-super
• Sophie Vorath on booming-solar-market-triples-in-2018-set-to-deliver-hazelwood-liddell-by-2020-2020
• Greg Jericho onas-scott-morrison-decides-when-to-head-to-the-polls-there-is-little-in-the-economy-to-make-him-smile
• Andrew Elder on dead-fish
• Kevin Bonham onindependents-seldom-replace-other-independents, what-are-prospects-for-labor-green-majority
• Gary Dundas and Lucy Percival on 35-degree-days-make-blackouts-more-likely-but-new-power-stations-wont-help
• Fran Sheldon on the-darling-river-is-simply-not-supposed-to-dry-out-even-in-drought
• Laura Crommelin et al on the-big-lesson-from-opal-tower-is-that-badly-built-apartments-arent-only-an-issue-for-residents
• Jamie Pittock on cotton-and-rice-have-an-important-place-in-the-murray-darling-basin
• Sophie Vorrath on another-big-coal-plant-trips-in-heat-but-rooftop-solar-remains-in-media-sights, /duck-solar-charge-puts-energy-market-transition-on-the-fast-track

Northern America

• Macro Musings on the-horror-of-corridor
• the conversable econmist on what-if-most-americans-dont-care-that-deeply-about-trade, what-message-is-beveridge-curve-sending
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on bad-precedent Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on how-much-value-was-destroyed-by-the-lehman-bankruptcy Thanks Mark
• New Deal democrat on flying-blind
• Barkley Rosser on getting-ever-more-surreal
• Christie Ashwanden on is-trump-trying-to-politicize-agricultural-data-some-former-usda-officials-suspect-yes

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke on a-short-history-of-brexit-notes-part-2-from-chapter-8
• Mainly Macro on is-norway-way-forward, parliaments-brexit-game
• Daniel Flitton on http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/the-interpreter/brexit-battles-and-three-big-questions
• Zack Beauchamp on brexit-vote-what-happens-next-theresa-may
• Victoria Honeyman on brexit-deal-flops-theresa-may-survives-so-what-happens-now
• Chris Stafford on brexit-theresa-may-survives-confidence-vote-but-brussels-is-in-charge-now
• long and variable on new-statesman-blog-on-the-bollocks-of-labours-six-tests
• Karl Whelan on the Government's $39B brexit  bill
• Giovanni Di Lieto on whats-the-deal-or-no-deal-with-brexit-heres-everything-explained
• Ruth Adler on brexit-british-people-vote-their-feet

Asia

• Roshni Kapur on why-governments-criticise-china-and-then-sign-deals-beijing
• Bonnie Bley on what-i-missed-japan-unlikely-overachiever
• Craig Jeffrey on why-the-indian-ocean-region-might-soon-play-a-lead-role-in-world-affairs
• Robert E Kelly on north-korea-eclipsing-moon-presidency
• Kruggers on will-chinas-economy-hit-a-great-wall Thanks Mark
• Stephen Joske on china-financial-system-closed
• the conversable economist on how-does-chinas-higher-gdp-translate-into-national-power
• David Appell on chinas-energy-consumption-has-flatlined
• Rodger Shanahan on syria-emerging-consequences-us-withdrawal

Wonk

• Roger Farmer on social progress is not an illusion, why-deficits-are-sustainable-and-inflation-has-a-life-of-its-own
• Mainly Macro on should-we-worry-about-temporarily-increasing-government-debt
• Tim Harford on stop-sniping-at-central-banks-and-set-clear-targets
• Macro Mania on when-is-more-competition-is-bad
• stumbling and mumbling on commercialization-effects-in-universities
• David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi on microfoundations_production_functions Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on the-flynn-effect
• Raghuram Rajan on /disruption-concentration-and-the-new-economy Thanks Mark
• Thomas Piketty on 1789-the-return-of-the-debt Thanks Mark 
• David A Bell on many-lives-of-liberalism
• stumbling and mumbling on on-the-competence-principle
• Marc Bellemare on read bad stuff
• Nick Rowe on inflation-and-the-debtgdp-ratio
• Jeff Erikson on Algorithms Thanks Brad

General

• Josh Calcino and Jake Clark on curious-kids-why-has-nobody-found-any-life-outside-of-earth

Climate

• Open Mind on sea-heat, el-nino-and-sea-level-rise-u-s-east-coast-vii, sea-heat-2, global-temperature-why-so-many-straight-lines
• Moyhu on december-ncepncar-global-surface-up-frrom-november
• and Then Theres Physics on the-significance-of-the-pause
• Julie Arblaster et al on why-antarcticas-sea-ice-cover-is-so-low-and-no-its-not-just-about-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• post-hoc-power-calculation-like-shit-sandwich
• does-harvard-discriminate-against-asian-americans-in-college-admissions
• causal-inference-data-challenge
• statschat on briefly
• Xian on statistics-in-nature-a-tale-of-the-two-steves
• Kaiser Fung on the-importance-of-knowing-how-things-are-counted, tsa-can-now-count-its-workers-as-paid

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics

• machine-learning-econometrics
• shout-out-for-mischa-fisher
• Marc Bellemare on front door criterion follow up
• Freakometrics on how to estimate the occurrence  probability of natural catastrophes

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-long-run-is-now
• where-did-economics-go-wrong
• inventing-the-property-market
• Tyler Cowen on european-guilds-economic-analysis, what-ive-been-reading
• Daniel Larison on threat-inflation-and-the-jungle-grows-back Thanks Brad
• Skeptical Science on Saudia America

Vox Wonk

• social-security-reforms-and-elderly-employment-japan
• ecb-s-performance-during-crisis
• border-walls
• debt-overhang-rollover-risk-and-corporate-investment-europe
• mixed-success-stability-and-growth-pact
• brexit-blame-it-banking-crisis
• economic-geography-innovation
• misspecification-empirical-models-how-problematic-and-what-can-we-do-about-it
• predicting-recessions-using-term-spread-zero-lower-bound
• learning-noise-evidence-india-s-ipo-lotteries
• predicting-recessions-using-term-spread-zero-lower-bound
• foreclosures-and-new-mortgage-lending-1930s
• executive-compensation-energy-companies
• economic-assimilation-famine-irish-america

Australia Day farce

Only in Australia do we celebrate ( and it has only been very recently as well post bi-centennial actually) Australia day on a day we did NOT become a nation.

This would be like celebrating your birthday say on January 1 on January 16. It is stupid. It has no rhyme nor reason but hey we are Australians.

The folks with the loudest voices saying we should do this are people calling them selves conservatives.

Oh dear

Perhaps we should call this our fake Australia day

Do not test pills

There are some people who want the Government to test illegal drugs at various music festivals.

This is a poor call.

People know they are playing russian roulette when taking the pills. If they possessed any intelligence they would go nowhere the pills.

If the government tests these pills they are essentially making illegal drugs legal. This is utter stupidity

Another damned operation

I went home on Saturday morning quite pleased as Australia had convincingly defeated Palestine in the Asian Cup. I went to bed thinking that was that. I awoke at around 12.30 thinking I must be suffering from indigestion or heartburn. When Mylanta did not do a thing I knew something else was occurring so it was off to Ryde Hospital in thee wee hours of the morning.

Finally i was told I had not one but three gallstones that had to come out at some time.

So I am now trying to find a specialist who can do this.

The worst thing about getting old is going to hospital.