some good news and bad news on climate

 the bad news

• global-seas-hottest-temperature-july-scientists
  
•  can-the-searing-european-summer-put-climate-action-back-on-the-agenda-or-will-disaster-response-take-over

the good news

• reef-relief-how-a-late-summer-monsoon-helped-cool-the-great-barrier-reef-at-just-the-right-time
  

Australian Polity

 Polls

Do we have too many polls. Good question. We do have too many people who do not understand basic stats. When I was younger it was a given by both parties people did not get  'involved in elections until just before the election.

Okay it used to be thought polling this far out from the election would be said to be more like a by-election. I will concede however it might be different this time.

Gambling

I said before Albo is weak on this. He is because he is PM. they want to win elections and thus not get people or 'influential' lobbies offside. In other worse he wants both the NRL and AFL onside. I am surprised by the Opposition on this topic. Lets hope it continues. Gambling is an evil. If you could make money from it there would not be any gambling companies. Everyone should do the introductory statistics tutorial I did when they examined the probability of winning money from all forms of gambling!

Tim Wilson

I confess I have never had time for him. He usually lacks basic understanding of the topic he is talking about. Making him shadow treasurer was a 'courageous' decision. He has been lucky a lot of his mistakes have been missed.Let us examine three he has talked about recently. He criticises the level of government spending. yet he has criticised attempts to bring the NDIS under control. 

He has also alleged corruption on the part of the government yet has been very vague about what the sd corruption is.

He has also said he would cut a lot of tax levels and this would involve a lot of money yet he refuses to nominate where he would cut  this large amount of spending.

Data Centres

One interesting thing I found over the weekend was Mark Zandi saying data centres are contributing to inflationary pressures. Why anyone  would want data centres to be powered by gas or coal instead of renewables when they are far more costly!!

Roy Buchanan

Roy Buchanan was truly one of the great guitarists.

For those who have rarely heard him here are two examples.

First Hey Joe ( terrible singing)

 and now Green Onions

Around the Traps 7/8/26

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Frank Bongornio on australian-twilight-liberal-swansong Thanks Nick
• Bernard Keane on the-case-for-a-blatantly-discriminatory-australian-voting-system 
• Jane Younger on the-warning-signs-are-over-australia-now-faces-a-devastating-bird-flu-outbreak-in-wildlife
• Liz Allen on from-flushing-our-toilets-to-building-new-schools-this-is-why-filling-in-your-census-form-matters
• Marja Taflaga et al on change-or-die-how-the-liberal-partys-long-resistance-to-reform-has-left-it-fighting-for-life
• Eugene Schofield-Georgeson on yet-another-cfmeu-royal-commission-wont-solve-much-until-we-learn-from-the-past
• Peter Greste on pauline-hanson-has-knocked-another-brick-out-of-our-creaky-political-system-its-not-good-for-anybody
• John Woinarski et al on powerless-against-bird-flu-not-entirely-here-are-8-ways-to-help-protect-australias-birds-and-mammals
• Dennis Muller on media-and-political-complacency-is-letting-pauline-hanson-re-write-the-rules-on-accountability
• Sally Larsen on the-biggest-news-from-naplan-2026-the-results-arent-really-better-or-worse
• Ross Gittins on stop-complaining-australia-s-in-good-economic-shape-mostly
• Saul Eslake on house-prices-falling-australia-housing-market-sydney-melbourne
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-says-rate-rises-dont-really-increase-living-costs-but-the-data-is-clear-they-very-much-do 
• Yuting Zhang et al on health-insurance-rebates-may-change-for-the-over-65s-our-new-study-shows-what-to-expect
• Blair Williams on pauline-hanson-was-once-dubbed-queen-of-the-mens-rights-movement-her-30-year-career-shows-why
• Anna Fifield on new-zealand-s-winston-peters-falls-flat
• Antony Green on the-record-of-late-term-succession-premiers
• Matteo Vergano and Fiona Allison on what-three-million-online-posts-reveal-about-anti-first-nations-hate-in-australia
• Milad Haghadi et al on big-us-style-trucks-are-killing-more-pedestrians-in-australia-our-research-proves-it

OZ Climate

• David Moretto on batteries-shift-energy-they-dont-create-it Thanks Nick
• Graham Readfearn on the-great-net-zero-debate-was-anything-but-so-beware-coalition-claims-of-renewables-taking-over-two-tasmanias
• Michelle Ward et al on australia-has-pledged-to-restore-nature-but-could-we-ever-bring-back-lost-ecosystems
• reports-of-offshore-winds-demise-have-been-greatly-exaggerated-but-in-australia-its-still-far-from-a-sure-thing
  
• its-time-to-switch-it-on-how-to-unlock-a-commercial-rooftop-pv-power-station-equal-to-10-coal-plants
  
• labors-flagship-renewable-energy-scheme-has-not-worked-its-time-to-replace-the-cis-with-a-cfd
  
• from-crisis-to-capability-lessons-from-denmark-on-how-to-quit-fossil-fuels
  
• a-very-real-risk-of-breaking-councils-demand-solar-recycling-as-they-face-avalanche-of-panels-into-landfills
  
• a-new-oil-refinery-commissioned-in-the-mid-2030s-is-just-burning-money-that-makes-emissions
  
• renewables-and-electrification-help-build-farm-resilience-amidst-the-fuel-and-fertiliser-crisis
  
• solar-rebates-extended-to-megawatt-systems-as-bowen-seeks-to-supercharge-missing-middle
  
• rooftop-solars-record-run-continues-as-battery-charged-pv-market-chalks-up-biggest-half-year-ever
  
• australia-will-not-hit-82-pct-renewables-by-2030-bnef-says-despite-record-solar-and-battery-investment
  
• bowen-says-coal-isnt-baseload-any-more-its-unreliable-threatens-states-pushing-gas-for-data-centres
  
• as-musk-plans-to-send-ai-into-orbit-bowen-positions-australia-to-be-an-earth-based-data-superpower
  
• home-battery-sizes-shrink-by-half-after-rebate-changes-but-installation-bonanza-continues
  
• energyaustralia-looks-to-future-of-coal-generator-sites-as-results-hit-by-low-prices-and-customer-losses
  

Northern America 

• institutional economics on open-mouth-operations-the-case-for-more-forward-guidance-not-less 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-davies-the-mgm-affair, partial-crosspost-mike-brock-the-house-of-ellison-is-on-the-brink , crosspost-dan-froomkin-the-reflecting-pool-story-is-about-trump's-grip-on-reality-but-the-press-won't go-there , crosspost-lyz-lenz-who-will-you-blame-when-they-(the haitian immigrants)-are-gone
• becoming noble on young-adults-are-poor-despite-every-metric-suggesting-otherwise Thanks Nick
• Kevin Levin on why-lindsey-graham-abandoned-the-confederate-flag
• James Hamilton on gdp-continues-modest-growth 
• Menzie Chinn on pecking-order-and-ai-capex-spending
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-s-short-war-is-spiralling-out-of-control-his-personal-failings-were-the-trigger
• Andrew Prokop on aipac-michigan-senate-el-sayed-stevens 
• noahpinion on slopulism-is-taking-over-america , are-the-democrats-going-to-save-us-this-time
• Kruggers on how-china-won-the-iran-war , the-oligarchs-are-doubling-down-on-republicans , an-explosion-of-misery , the-good-news-trump-wont-mention , news-of-the-weak-labor-market
• Ian Millhiser on todd-blanche-cornyn-tillis-cave
• John Cassidy on kevin-warsh-is-facing-more-than-a-communication-problem
• Harry Littman on reflecting-pool-case-a-kafkaesque-debacle-even-after-the-dismissal 
• Theodore Zorn on return-of-the-red-scare-how-the-us-right-is-weaponising-the-word-communism
• David Graham on trump-loosing-black-hispanic-young-republican-voters
• Lisa Needham on jeanine-pirro-crashes-into-the-limit-of-trump's-lying
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-humiliated-iran-reflecting-pool
• Nancy Youseff and Jonathan Lemire on shortage-weapons-shaping-war-iran
• newdeal democrat on the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes-for-july-show-a-reasonably-strong-but-stagflationary-expansion 
• Tyler Cowen on will-u-s-cities-face-a-knock-on-fiscal-crisis-from-the-feds
• Pyotr Kurzin on america-is-literally-out-of-ammo

Europe

• Luke Harding on this-is-where-democracy-beats-totalitarianism-ukraines-drone-strike-force-takes-the-fight-to-russia
• Deniz Cortu on how-the-ceuta-border-crossing-incident-immediately-played-into-the-hands-of-spains-far-right
• Anne Applebaum on ceuta-spain-far-right , ukraine-russia-war-drones
• Lisa Martin on europe-s-far-right-cashes-in-on-the-ceuta-crossings
• Stefan Wolff et al on we-investigated-russias-military-indoctrination-of-ukrainian-children-in-occupied-territories-what-we-found-was-more-shocking-than-we-could-have-imagined
• mainly macro on long-term-fiscal-projections-are-good-antidote-for-piliticians-talking-about-taxcuts

Asia

• Martin Kear on trump-is-hailing-it-as-a-breakthrough-but-will-hamas-actually-disarm-in-gaza
• Simon Avenell on defining-a-normal-country-japans-long-struggle-between-pacifism-and-the-threats-of-a-new-era
• Anna Brennan on even-if-hamas-disarms-the-challenge-in-gaza-will-be-accountability
• Khang Vu on pyongyang-s-nuclear-bomber-bluff 
• Emirza Syailendra on south-china-sea-competing-sovereignty-is-sinking-joint-development 
• William Chung on defusing-japan-and-china-s-unmanaged-security-dilemma
• Mark the Graph on the-morass-and-why-peace-only-lasted-eight-days
• Andrew Thomas on with-its-new-leverage-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-does-iran-want-or-need-a-nuclear-weapon
• Xiaobo Liu and Sophie Yi on at-a-crossroads-how-beijing-sees-manila-s-south-china-sea-turn 
• Shameek Godara on the-quad-needs-asean-more-than-asean-needs-the-quad 
• Cory Alpert on the-trigger-for-asia-s-next-war-privatised 
• Michael Schmitt on strategic-attack-on-iran-airpowers-promises-limits-and-lessons
• renew economy on china-coal-the-cheap-tonnes-are-running-out-and-the-bigger-they-are-the-harder-they-fall

Wonk

• in due course on on-becoming-less-full-of-shit Thanks Nick
• John List et al on the valueof behavioural policies Thanks Nick
• James Skinner on fifa-and-infantino-face-an-uncertain-future-as-leading-soccer-nations-fight-for-change
• Tyler Cowen on immigration-and-macroeconomic-outcomes-in-oecd-countries , who-pays-for-unions
• Kruggers on geoeconomics-part-i-ranking-economic-superpowers
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-prices-update
• the conversable economist on summer-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online
• noahpinion on the-end-of-the-age-of-heroes
• Chris Dillow on on-the-ownership-of-assets
• Nic Bisley on authoritarian-states-are-rewiring-the-global-order-australia-and-the-liberal-world-can-be-the-circuit-breaker

General

• Emily Wilson on if-you-can-bear-to-hear-the-truth-youve-spoken Thanks Nick
• Martin McKenzie-Murray on interviewing-mccartney Thanks Nick 
• KO Chong-Gossard on in-homers-epic-a-bold-princess-helps-odysseus-home-but-not-in-nolans-film-who-is-nausicaa
• Brad De Long on emily-wilsons-inordinate-rage-against-the-odyssey , crosspost-sean-illing-you-cant-have-homer-nietzsche-and-jesus
• Russell Bicknell and Julian Kimmig on on-the-origin-of-feces-how-animal-poo-drove-earths-greatest-evolutionary-event
• Vera Weisbacker et al on dodos-probably-werent-as-stupid-as-historians-made-them-out-to-be-new-research

Climate 

• Andrew Weaver on donald-trump-blames-canada-for-wildfire-smoke-but-global-warming-is-loading-the-wildfire-dice
• Shawan Chowdhury et al on butterflies-are-on-the-move-as-the-planet-warms-new-research
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-can-we-train-researchers-and-consumers-of-research-to-put-numbers-in-perspective-as-a-matter-of-course
  
• what-gets-you-is-not-what-you-dont-know-but-what-you-dont-know-you-dont-know
  
• placebo-tests-deserve-a-model-not-just-a-glance 
  
• stand up comedy 
• in-that-era-undergrad-males-at-madison-and-elsewhere-had-to-take-rotc-classes-and-he-kept-intentionally-failing-them-because-he-was-very-leftwing-politically
  
• walnutpie-version-0-0-1-released
  
• survey-statistics-structured-mrp-to-smooth-survey-weights
  
• manned-mars-mission-miscellaneous 
  
• the-blessing-of-dimensionality
  
• how-to-avoid-the-clean-data-clean-model-trap-when-teaching-statistics-and-data-science
  
• freakometrics on will technology save us
• Kaiser Fung on yet-another-way-to-order-pie-slices

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• july-monthly-reading-round-up
  
• Tyler Cowen on romes-age-of-revolution
• Mark Danner on trumps-constitutional-dictatorship-regime-change-haberman-swan

vox wonk

• carbon-risk-loan-pricing-commitment-channels-and-real-effects 
  
• when-news-you-watch-shapes-inflation-you-expect 
  
• how-shifts-geoeconomic-power-are-rewiring-global-trade
  
• origins-multinational-premium-managerial-talent-firm-risk-and-corporate-taxation 
  
• uncovering-labour-supply-channel-monetary-transmission 
  
• climate-policy-may-crowd-out-green-values-and-what-do-about-it
  
• when-political-pressure-trumps-academic-freedom
  
• automation-does-not-lower-labour-share 
  
• safe-debt-financing-international-spillovers-and-benefits-fiscal-policy-coordination 
  
• glp-1-treatment-reduces-sickness-absence
  

Replace Albo with Chalmers

 I have very little time today so it will be short and sweet.

The ALP has won the last two elections despite albo not because of albo.A sorta modern day howard. He is a poor communicator. This did not matter previously but it does now. (now in the next election I will not be voting ALP as they have had two terms).

Jim Chalmers on the other hand is a very good communicator. Make Andrew Charlton your treasurer and suddenly the ALP no longer looks timid but reform minded and it needs to be.

To be bi-partisan Taylor is a very poor communicator as well but there is no ready made replacement!

I should add although it is obvious if you cannot communicate you cannot reform. This means you have to understand what you are doing and then explain it. Stand up Paul Keating. Timid people cannot reform nor communicate

Hanson's authoritarian instincts

 Two people beat me to it.

• Peter Greste
• Dennis Muller

Hanson only likes people who give her a good press to be at her news conferences. This means she has a political glass jaw and does not understand what democracy is. It also means those reporters who do turn up to her news conferences are tarnished.

Like many dictators and wannabe dictators she is intellectually challenged. ( I can only think of Lenin ,Trosky would have been there but Stalin beat him off.)

I cannot help wondering why our old mate Gerry Henderson has not written about this!!

The US Department of Justice is getting worse

 No-one has lost more lustre being a trump apologist than Todd Blanche. When he was with the DOJ he was well liked and respected. Now he is responsible for a person getting off because of vindictive prosecution! He signed up on the disgraceful agreement that was going to be the anti-weaponisation fund as well as the Trumps having lifetime immunity from the tax department. Just remember he was Trump's personal lawyer and thus should have recused himself. At a press conference he said they had plenty of more evidence and witnesses to prosecute James Comey. Only problem is we find a number of illegal things were done in the investigation and it will be interesting if the grand jury proceedings are investigated. This would not be the first time. The concept of presumption of regularity is being reduced brick by brick

Blanche and Bondi are responsible for this. Remember the disaster of Halligan. bondi wrote to the judge saying what occurred in the grand jury was fine. Whoopsy a magistrate judge found otherwise. This is not the only case of the DOJ doing illegal things in grand jury hearings.

Now we have the ludicrous case of the reflecting poll.

It is a disgrace and it will take a long time to reform the DOJ so it can regain its former pristine reputation. It is getting worse under blanche and this will continue!!