The US Department of Justice is getting worse

 No-one has lost more lustre being a trump apologist than Todd Blanche. When he was with the DOJ he was well liked and respected. Now he is responsible for a person getting off because of vindictive prosecution! He signed up on the disgraceful agreement that was going to be the anti-weaponisation fund as well as the Trumps having lifetime immunity from the tax department. Just remember he was Trump's personal lawyer and thus should have recused himself. At a press conference he said they had plenty of more evidence and witnesses to prosecute James Comey. Only problem is we find a number of illegal things were done in the investigation and it will be interesting if the grand jury proceedings are investigated. This would not be the first time. The concept of presumption of regularity is being reduced brick by brick

Blanche and Bondi are responsible for this. Remember the disaster of Halligan. bondi wrote to the judge saying what occurred in the grand jury was fine. Whoopsy a magistrate judge found otherwise. This is not the only case of the DOJ doing illegal things in grand jury hearings.

Now we have the ludicrous case of the reflecting poll.

It is a disgrace and it will take a long time to reform the DOJ so it can regain its former pristine reputation. It is getting worse under blanche and this will continue!!

A few things

 In no order of importance.

Albo

If the private sector do not want to build oil terminals then there is no need to do a study into building one. the reason they do not want to build one is that it is  like coal fired power plants) not profitable.

I think we can confidently say now we cannot trust the ALP to do anything positive on gambling. both albo and Minns are very weak on this.

Ukraine

Zelensky had to choose between his defence minister and chief general. He went for the latter but the punters did not approve so he changed. the new general in charge who looks very formidable and has popular support and importantly does not have any soviet baggage. His old defence minister will be around somewhere.

They need patriots bigtime as it is only the ballistic missiles that are hitting ukraine. What a pity a lot were wasted in Iran

Iran

We do know the US stockpiles of weapons has drastically reduced. It appears the US has not learnt any lessons from Ukraine. They are wasting high value assets on low value drones. Ukraine does not. I do not believe Iran is going to do anything to have a 'treaty' until after the mid-terms. does anyone remember the hapless Jimmy Carter in 1980?

Spain

There were a lot of people that got to Ceuta. They apparently thought they could get to spain. ( it isn't part of mainland spain. When they found out they had beeen wood-ducked most went back to morocco. Why did they think that. believing far right nut jobs.It is a familiar story.

FIFA

The President came up with a hairbrained scheme to sell off their most prized assets. No-one liked it and hopefully he will go.

Communism

If you want to understand what communism is then you need to read Das Kapital. Beware it is very long and boring. the communist manifesto is better as it is much shorter.  There is no private sector in communism thus a candidate who is a communist wants to nationalise every sector. If you believe the government should own part of the private sector like trump then you are a socialist. If you believe the public sector should only own assets that are essential then you believe in capitalism!!

Around the Traps 31/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on why-demand-rules-housing-market , house-purchase-affordability-where-i-stand
• Mark Warburton on even-the-government-agrees-job-ready-graduates-has-failed-heres-what-should-replace-it
• Milad Haghani on as-china-bans-new-cars-with-unsafe-doors-australia-risks-becoming-a-dumping-ground
• Rebecca Strating and Arzan Tarapore on new-research-shows-how-vulnerable-australia-would-be-to-attacks-on-shipping-in-the-indian-ocean
• Zareh Ghazarian on ben-carroll-is-the-new-victorian-premier-he-has-a-long-and-urgent-to-do-list-and-4-months-until-an-election
• Yee-Fui Ng on how-the-big-build-corruption-allegations-brought-down-the-victorian-premier
• Mark Bray on after-a-decade-leading-the-actu-what-is-the-legacy-of-sally-mcmanus-and-michele-oneil
• Barbara Kinder and Michael Charles on governments-have-a-financial-vested-interest-not-to-reform-gambling-laws-heres-why
• Mark Warburton et al on three-things-australia-must-do-to-end-the-tobacco-wars
• Shane Wright on it-s-lucky-inflation-is-falling-most-of-us-don-t-even-understand-what-the-reserve-bank-does 
• Stella Huangfu on australian-inflation-has-eased-a-little-an-august-interest-rate-rise-now-looks-unlikely
• Andrew Kemp on 26-charts-of-australia-in-trouble  , forty-interesting-facts-about-australiaThanks Tyler
• Timothy Koskie on australias-online-watchdog-is-taking-messaging-app-telegram-to-court-over-pro-terrorist-posts
• Millie Muroi on most-of-us-get-this-economics-question-wrong-we-re-paying-for-it
• Richard Ackland on melbourne-businessman-guilty-rape-identity-suppression-gag-order-open-justice
• Faith  Tabulujan on australias-fuel-discount-is-ending-what-does-this-mean-for-petrol-prices

OZ Climate

• strong-endorsement-australias-biggest-solar-battery-hybrid-project-locks-in-finance
  
• tallest-turbines-and-longest-blades-arrive-in-australia-for-300-km-road-trip-to-pilbara-wind-site
  
• electricity-network-tariffs-are-a-dogs-breakfast-where-to-now-for-distributors
  
• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
• queensland-utility-writes-contract-for-one-of-states-biggest-wind-projects-the-first-under-lnp-government 
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark 
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper 
  
• second-stage-of-supernode-battery-begins-operations-making-it-the-biggest-in-australias-main-grid
  
• uncertainty-over-coal-closures-haunts-wind-and-solar-projects-all-eyes-on-yallourn-as-exit-proof-point
  
• australia-cannot-hedge-its-way-to-a-renewable-export-future 
  
• wind-project-faces-referral-due-to-long-distance-objectors-citing-impacts-of-a-wind-farm-that-doesnt-exist
  
• three-months-and-still-no-sign-of-life-but-government-says-it-is-committed-to-solar-recycling-pilot
  
• the-wind-drought-that-no-one-wants-but-everyone-talks-about
  
• Steve Turton on the-dangerous-climate-driving-californias-wildfires-and-a-warning-for-australia
• Christopher Auricht on fire-can-destroy-peatlands-but-in-australia-it-can-also-help-protect-them
• Joel Gilmour on batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
• Graham Readfearn on australians-value-batteries-and-evs-but-renewables-industry-must-earn-trust-of-regions-summit-told
• Kaitlin Hammond et al on we-revisited-a-forest-experiment-that-lay-forgotten-for-30-years-what-we-found-was-astounding

Northern America

• institutional economics on money-policy-errors-and-the-fed
• Harold Meyerson on benjamin-franklin-champion-of-the-wealth-tax Thanks Nick
• John Quiggin on nate-silver-discovers-the-educated-poor
• John Carlson on the-us-just-lowered-its-own-nuclear-bar
• noahpinion on we-asked-too-much-of-the-american-university
• Kruggers on against-oligarchy-part-ii-wealth-taxes ,the-fire-this-time , the-putinization-of-the-american-military , when-the-chips-are-down , reality-is-a-communist-plot , the-bond-market-doesnt-like-bullshit
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on which-way-should-the-democratic-party-go-now
• Caitlin Dewey on us-measles-record-cdc , the-covid-debate-that-never-ended
• Cameron Peters on trump-administration-asylum-claims-immigration-judge-deportations
• Katherine Wu on anthony-fauci-politics-hearing
• Bill McKibben on tumps-isolationism-is-losing-the-great-ev-race
• Menzie Chinn on reducing-employment-growth , estimates-of-current-inventories-of-patriot-and-thaad-interceptors
• the conversable economist on major-stereotypes
• Brad De Long on josh-marshalls-ire-is-activated-by-nate-silver , crosspost-lyz-lenz-who-will-you-blame-when-the-haitain-immigrants-are-gone
• Jonatan Lemire on trump-iran-midterms
• Rachel Carson on rand-paul-anthony-fauci-lab-leak-spillover-pandemic-origin
• Jeet Heer on trump-whcd-speech-media-humiliation
• Zeeshan Aleem on netanyahu-arrest-us-poll-israel-war-criminal-zohran-mamdani-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on third-worldism-trump-rubio-cuba
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-bombing-air-force
• Jonathan Chait on comey-trump-aides-secret-service
• Isaac Chotiner on will-left-wing-democrats-re-invent-the-party-or-hurt-its-chances-in-november
• Ken Dilanian on a-jury-found-two-police-officers-covered-up-a-murder-trump-pardoned-them
• Art Gibson on faucis-covid-origins-hearing-shows-how-conspiracy-theories-became-political-weapons 
• David Frum on fauci-senate-diary-rand-paul
• Nancy Youseff and Johnathan Lemire on iran-war-trump-misunderstandings

Europe

• Tom Loosemore on uk reorganisation risks devolution and AI reform Thanks Nick
• Martin Farr on what-weve-learned-from-andy-burnhams-first-week-as-prime-minister
• James Horncastle on volodymyr-zelenskyys-removal-of-two-top-defence-officials-highlights-the-role-of-morale-in-long-wars
• Ibrahim Al-Marashi on berlin-pride-isis-still-inspires-terrorism-in-europe-but-who-carries-out-these-attacks
• Caitlin Dewey on spain-france-wildfires-europe-warming
• David Bowman et al on the-fire-has-such-power-why-the-wildfires-gripping-france-and-spain-are-off-the-charts
• Chris Dillow on social-care-the-fight-for-economic-thinking
• the conversable economist on the-eu-green-deal-hows-it-going

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on estimates-of-q2-chinese-gdp
• David Frum on saudi-arabia-trump-nuclear-deal
• Abhijen Rej on roaches-reborn-win-big-in-india
• Brad De Long on the-strait-of-hormuz-has-now-been-effectively-closed-for-4 1/2 months
• Amy McAuliffe on us-saudi-nuclear-deal-invites-proliferation-risks-unless-safeguards-are-written-in
• Saqlain Rizve on china-s-next-south-asian-corridor-may-begin-in-bangladesh 
• Yuyun Wahyuningrum on starvation-as-a-weapon-the-icj-myanmar-case-could-redefine-genocide 
• David Remnick on how-netanyahus-top-general-became-his-strongest-challenger
• Stephanie Campbell on twenty-years-of-praising-india-is-not-a-china-strategy
• home and away on overreach
• David Zhang on the-end-of-cheap-peace-in-east-asia
• noahpinion on why-did-south-korean-stocks-just-crash
• Martin Kear on trump-is-hailing-it-as-a-breakthrough-but-will-hamas-actually-disarm-in-gaza

Wonk

• Yiying Liu on seeds-possibilities-how-my-21-year-old-pomegranate-illustration Thanks Nick
• Valerie Stivers on a-novelists-dark-portrait-of-natalie-portman Thanks Nick
• Barry Weiss on what-nobody-teaches-you-about-the-holocaust Thanks Nick
• Samantha Pearson on trump-brazil-payment-system-pix Thanks Nick 
• Richard Hanania on why-populism-fails Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on experts-know-less-than-they-like-to-think
• the conversable economist on occupational-licensing-us-and-international
• Ashlynne McGhee et al on the-unsexy-low-tech-fix-that-will-reduce-brain-injuries-in-sport
• noahpinion on what-will-more-intelligence-actually-do-for-us , roundup-85
• Garritt Van Dyk on one-grain-to-rule-them-all-the-history-of-rice-as-a-global-food
• Tyler Cowen on the-decline-in-the-transmission-of-scientific-ideas
• Gregory Radisic on an-abandoned-spacex-rocket-is-about-to-crash-into-the-moon-the-real-problem-comes-next
• mainly macro on the-relationship-between-capital-plutocracy-and-populism
• David Rowe on world-game-at-war-why-some-european-nations-have-threatened-a-world-cup-boycott
• thomas the think engine on the-great-housing-surplus

General

• Noelia Noel on nasas-new-space-telescope-will-tackle-some-of-the-universes-biggest-mysteries
• Tom Davies on who-was-homer-author-of-the-odyssey
• Mathew Ahamdi et al on does-regular-exercise-stop-you-getting-sick-in-winter
• Constance Grady on odyssey-homer-nolan-which-translation

Climate

• Vanessa PIrotta on like-someone-whacking-a-pinata-orcas-explode-sunfish-by-ramming-them-at-high-speed
• Shannon Hobbs et al on who-gets-the-world-s-clean-electricity
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-prices-update
• Harris Anderson et al on can-we-alter-ocean-chemistry-to-absorb-carbon-here-are-the-pros-and-cons
• skeptical science on hot-days-cold-thermometers , new_research
• Bill McGuire on wildfires-rage-world-climate-action-scientists-fossil-fuels
• Andrew Weaver on donald-trump-blames-canada-for-wildfire-smoke-but-global-warming-is-loading-the-wildfire-dice
• Uwe Kirsher on can-pumping-groundwater-really-flip-earths-poles-an-expert-explains

Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)

• i-dont-see-journal-review-as-a-gatekeeping-process-that-will-keep-erroneous-articles-from-being-published
  
• the-jewish-vote-is-not-about-the-jewish-vote-jewish-public-opinion-is-not-about-jewish-public-opinion
  
• statistical models
• selection-effects-can-go-both-ways 
  
• survey-statistics-equivalent-models-equivalent-weights-locally 
  
• eleven-kinds-of-loneliness-richard-yates-and-the-tragedy-of-agency
  
• over-coverage-caught-by-pre-registration-47-of-56-inside-a-stated-50-interval
  
• posterior-predictive-checking-is-for-non-bayesians-too 
  
• what-do-we-learn-from-bestseller-regressions
  
• Kaiser Fung on slow-thinking-required
• Kyle Hewitt on what-is-a-p-value-an-expert-explains-the-most-misunderstood-number-in-science
• statschat on nz-weight-loss-supplement-works

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Hossain Asgari on this-compelling-novel-follows-five-lives-changed-forever-by-irans-islamic-revolution
• Tyler Cowen on liberal-worlds-james-bryce-and-the-democratic-intellect-2
• Brad De Long on partial-crosspost-william-davies-review-of-when-the-clock-broke-conmen-conspiracists-and-the-origins-of-trumpism
• John Hawkins on this-history-of-currencies-suggests-the-us-dollars-dominance-may-fade-but-it-will-happen-slowly
• Mathew Ricketson on regime-change-might-be-2026s-nonfiction-bestseller-heres-why-its-essential-chilling-reading

Vox Wonk

• after-fire-how-ukrainian-strikes-disrupt-local-economies-around-russian-refineries 
  
• assaf-razin-international-economist-global-age 
  
• technology-adoption-and-labour-shortages-evidence-britains-industrial-revolution
  
• debt-service-and-fiscal-sustainability 
  
• dividend-tax-reforms-why-design-shapes-revenue-and-measured-inequality 
  
• beyond-snapshot-how-poverty-really-unfolds-over-time-eu 
  
• rethinking-use-quantitative-easing-macro-stimulus 
  
• ai-premium
  
• digital-banks-social-media-and-competition-deposits 
  
• baby-busts-and-gdp-booms-demographic-change-and-macroeconomy
  

Rate rise probably unlikely

 The CPI came out yesterday. Things are not as bad s they looked previously.  HERE is one analysis. it is pretty much on the money.

Let me quote from CBA economic research. The trimmed mean was softer than expected and there is limited pass through at present. Add that to demand slowing, the labour market softening quicker than expected and housing being quite soft and you have a case at present to keep rates where they are.

The middle east is the major problem and may cause them to lift rates if oil prices take off.

We shall see

renewables

 It has been ssome time since I 'posted' on this topic so here are some articles.

• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper
  
• batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
  

Wholesale prices are 47% lower than this time last year. Why you ask? renewables. As they further increase and coal/ gas further decrease this should continue.

Ask another question. Why aren't investors building coal fired power stations if they are the cheapest form of power with their ears pinned back. afterall no-one is stopping them! Because they are not the cheapest  and take a long time to build. If nuclear is so attractive why are investors knocking the door down in protest for not being able to build them. Because they are easily the most expensive form of power. Duh

Politics in OZ

 Victoria

I cannot believe the ALP want to replace their leader when there is an election in november. Do they think victorians are complete morons. It merely reinforces the impression the ALP is in disarray and are fighting among themselves. The punters in australia punish the ALP for this way more harsher than the LNP . Now I favour a change of government in victoria as the ALP have been in for more than two terms and are showing clear signs they have run out of puff.

NSW

We have an ICAC hearing which is not going to be good for the Liberals moreson as they clearly favour Chris Minns. I suggest we might see a weakened version of the SA result here. The ICAC inquiry might    ( probably) divert votes from the LNP to ON.

Hanson

What can we say. She is certainly 'affectionate' about the white Australia policy'. By the way it was Harold Holt not Gough Whitlam that got rid of it thank the lord. How that is not racist thinking? Then next she is blaming victims of domestic violence. and of course she favous mass deportations alah trump. AND she has a glass jaw politically.

There is an  old saying that no matter who you vote for you will get a politician. Apart from being a moronic truism even the criticism misses the point. Whoever you vote for will be a human being. As some stage they will lie, mislead etc even dissapoint. Alas the voters are human as well and have undue expectations.

The price of oil

It is hard to see the price of oil falling much. There are four reasons for this.

1. The strait of hormuz
2. the red sea
3. the fall in russian prodution
4. inventories

As you can see 1 & 2 are related to the Illegal war the USA is conducting on Iran. They are chokepoints for middle east oil to get to the rest of the world. Trump is a moron ( this is a highly technical term) and has gotten himself into a war where there is no end unless he gives Iran too much inn an agreement. Iran has no reason to sue for peace and would like it to continue until after the mid-terms. The houthis are joining Iran in their quest. Just remember even if hostilities stop ships need insurance to sail and that would take time in both areas.

People have seemingly ignored the Russian/Ukraine war. Ukraine drones are making a mess of russian oil production and terminals. It is hard to see Ukraine reducing this successful campaign.

Inventories were rundown a lot when the War started and no oil was able to get out of the strait of hormuz. Any further hostilities could see oil prices rise bigtime.

Let me finish on a very bearish note. If trump does put boots on the ground in Iran then watch out!