Thursday, 20 September 2018

Around the Traps 21/9/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 19 September 2018

Wages and the size of the Firm

We have known for some time that wages are greater in larger firms within the manufacturing sector. however it is the services sector stupid as James Carville would have said.

to date we have had little data to work with,

Thankfully on what I call Vox wonk today we have a news study entitled firm-size-productivity-and-pay-service-economy.

In short firm size still does count but it is nowhere as important as in manufacturing.

I like articles which show up results which are intuitive and add a bit of meat to the bones of theory. .

Well worth a read

Tuesday, 18 September 2018

The Trump Whitehouse

We now have had three books on what occurs at the chaos house lead by Donald Trump. No the Stormy Daniels book aint one of them!

What are the common themes?

  • He has the attention span of a cocker spaniel. Indeed Maureen Dowd had said this has always been the case even going back 25years!
  • He is very narcissistic
  • He is very self absorbed
  • He is not very intelligent  ( I think this is due to his age) More evidence the Trump/Turnbull transcript
  • He is no manager as the White house in regularly in chaos. Clearly some-one else did this when he was merely a property developer
I could go on but the list becomes too long.

Does Section 25 come into operation?
Nah. Remember like impeachment this is more a political than a legal decision. Do it for political reasons and you will get hammered as the Republicans found out with Bill Clinton.

You need clear  medical evidence and unfortunately this  probably will not occur until after the fact.

However this evidence all adds to the fact this President needs Congress to put a stop on him thus under any rational voting you would expect the Mid-term elections to show a large swing to the democrats.

Trump is way too old to change so chaos is the new normal.
Remember he is a minority President and thus in a weak position electorally. Most people who win the Presidency at least have positive approval ratings in their first year.

To the Democrats I would say nominate a  policy wok who has political your next Presidential candidate. It would be humiliating in the extreme for a Sitting President to know less of a topic than someone challenging him.

Monday, 17 September 2018

A few TV Shows

Trying to catch up on a few shows.

DCI Banks
This is on 9 gem  in Sydney. It is superb and I finally got to see the start of the show. Still good in repeats. The main question is why does Andrea Lowe always wear Jeans? As i have stated before Caroline Catz steals the show

Inspector George Gently 
This is on 72. I wanted to catch up on episodes i had missed on the ABC. It looks as though They are not showing all the seasons so I will not be able to catch up. one of the few series Martin Shaw's appalling acting technique does not hinder the overall show

I cannot speak highly enough about this show. Great acting, Scripts and characters who develop. Just when you think the series is over it is continuing. Obviously mistakes were learnt from Inspector Morse

The Split
This thus far is a disappointment. The script is very slow.Nicola Walker is not a glamorous woman thus it is  mutton dressed as lamb. A pity since she was brilliant in Unforgotten. It is on the ABC and is disappointing

This is new and on 7. A police officer murders a few people but no-body suspects a thing. did the yanks think this script up? very lame

Murdoch Mysteries
Just when you want to give up on this it comes along with a a script which grips you. Aghh!

Central Banks should not be inflation nutters

This is the title of a paper by several people on this subject.

To my mind Central Banks ,like government with fiscal policy, should be highly nuanced.

The recoveries following the GFC should have neither been traditional nor particularly strong. Wages growth is very anemic.
Under such circumstances it would not matter, indeed it could be beneficial to an economy, if the inflation target is temporarily breached.

If there is one clear lesson for Central banks from the GFC it is whilst they can reduce inflation with ease they cannot do the opposite when needed.

Sunday, 16 September 2018

Dutton should be referred to the Court of Disputed Returns

We have learnt to our cost that lawyers briefs at thirty paces do not mean a row of beans with regard to disputes for the Court of Disputed Returns.

Peter Dutton certainly has a case to answer and to be honest we need the Court of Disputed Returns to make a decision sop we have certainty for future MPs.

We know ,except for one decision, that they are a black letter law court which means Dutton is looking suspect. They make decisions which clearly do not pass the pub test.

Therefore Dutton should be referred to the Court of Disputed Returns

Should you get rid of of a sitting PM?

The short answer is yes.

The major problem the previous Labor government had and the major problem the current government has is there were no logical reasons for getting rid of Kevin Rudd and now Malcolm Turnbull.
As the redoubtable Kevin Bonham has shown Rudd was clearly heading for a comfortable win and the polls had come in quite a lot for Turnbull ( and he was the best electoral asset).

In Rudd's case it was the factional power brokers ensuring they kept the power of being in charge of their factions.
In Turnbull's case it was simply People who wished to destroy Turnbull ( mind you people who live by the sword usually die by the sword!). It had nothing to do with either winning or losing closely the next election.

In the case of Gillard and Abbott it was clear why they were deposed. They were leading their parties into electoral oblivion. A change of leaders might change that. It did not for the ALP but it just did for the Libs.

If you bring in rules to stop getting rid of PMs then electoral oblivion is a result that will occur as a result.