Petrol again

 Well the government has backflipped and reduced oil excise.

Here is an article on it. Just remember is is not funded ie it is adding to the deficit when policy MUST be reducing it so Shane Wright maybe wright ( get it).

Let us get down to tin tacks.

The problem with petrol at the moment is excess demand. Economics tells us this does not occur when the price rises astronomically. It has mainly happened in the regions ( because of cow cockies and miners( but it is also occurring in the cities. Two examples. Demand has increased 25% in some places. Bunnings has sold out of jerry cans!! The government could ban petrol in jerry cans and tanks and should.

By the way have you noticed no-one is criticising aussies for panic buying. It is all a supply problem. Now that is fake news.

I said before I suspect this war will go on for longer than expected. Can you imagine what Iran will do if trump commits a war crime and destroys their energy infrastructure. If it is in Ukraine it must be in Iran and it does not matter if Iran is doing it we are supposed to be the good guys and we do not commit war crimes ( we also do not start a war against international law either). what does Trump think would occur to the oil price if he obliterates Kharg island?

We have a moron in charge who thinks he is a genius who also has the attention span of a cocker spaniel.

A recession is likely

Danger Will Robinson danger, danger 

What you never watched Lost in Space

Iran again

 As each day moves forward it becomes more apparent no-one really thought about strategy. THE USA has limited options.

Trump was warned about the strait of hormuz but either ignored it or didn't understand.

Imagine you are part of Iranian leadership and Israel and the USA has deliberately targeted your leadership and your economy and are saying they will destroy your energy infrastructure ( which would be a war crime). you would hate the USA with a passion. They can't do much more to your country so I would:

• do everything to imperil the world economy the US in particular given Trump's precarious polling position. This is not only the strait of hormuz and the red sea but Arabian infrastructure which would take a lot of time to repair and rebuild.
• facilitate any sort of terrorist operations against US citizens particularly in the USA. Promise the young idealists a life in paradise!!

I am not sure the US military realised how vulnerable they were to asymmetric warfare even though history should have told them all about it. They never lost a battle in south vietnam but still lost the war.

The future is highly uncertain and looks very grim. A recession looks on the cards both internationally and here!

I should add Iranians are not trumpists. They are not idiots. They know the amount of troops being sent to the area is not enough to invade Iran only enough to attack a specific target like where Iranian oil or nuclear materials here. It aint hard to defend against that and dead US soldiers would be a millstone around Trump's neck

Around the Traps 27/3/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tanya Murphy on when-matter-goes-investigation-what-means-doesnt Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-housing-is-primarily-supply-problem , australias-oil-reserve-in-america
• Susan Sawyer on early-wins-for-the-social-media-ban-new-survey-claims-but-the-full-picture-is-far-more-complicated
• Tom McIlroy on superannuation-should-be-used-for-aged-care-not-inherited-by-next-generation-aged-care-ceo-says
• Rob Manwaring on one-nations-surge-and-liberal-partys-collapse-in-sa-election-reveal-tectonic-shifts-in-australian-politics
• Tony Barry on south-australian-election-voters-frustrated-angry-one-nation
• Antony Green on sa2026-some-early-observations-on-the-result
• Bec Strating and Elise Stephenson on security-gap-australia-can-t-afford-ignore
• Rod Sims on australian-gas-companies-massive-profits-paying-minimal-tax
• Hazel Moir on prosecco-makers-lose-out-as-australia-seals-eu-free-trade-deal-after-8-long-years-of-talks
• Taul Harper on our-interest-in-electric-vehicles-has-grown-due-to-oil-price-spikes-and-its-likely-to-remain
• David Vallance on conventional-icbms-could-end-australia-s-geographic-sanctuary
• Christian Downie on fake-news-on-everything-from-whales-to-wind-farms-australia-is-flooded-with-climate-misinformation
• Zareh Ghazarian on one-nation-surge-2-0-this-time-there-are-structural-issues-at-play
• Zhara Shahhoseini on australia-must-brace-for-clusters-of-natural-disasters-not-just-isolated-fires-and-floods
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-profit-margins-fuel-crisis-supply-chain-shock
• Shane Wright on let-s-not-adopt-drongo-economics-to-deal-with-high-priced-fuel
• Mark Melatos on compulsory-super-is-higher-than-ever-at-12-but-cutting-it-would-hurt-low-paid-workers-most
• Brent Jackson on eu-australia-fta-plays-long-game-critical-minerals-no-short-cuts

OZ Climate

• from-shuttered-coal-plant-to-gigascale-battery-agl-begins-commissioning-of-liddell-bess
  
• why-some-of-australias-energy-market-conventions-should-go-the-way-of-the-dinosaurs
  
• massive-step-state-inks-deals-to-deliver-more-than-1-gw-of-new-wind-power-ahead-of-mass-coal-exodus
  
• pressure-mounts-to-power-up-energy-efficiency-to-unplug-households-from-global-energy-shocks
  
• green-light-for-network-big-battery-sent-to-regulator-by-interstate-and-long-distance-objectors\
  
• diesel-replacement-australias-billion-dollar-opportunity-to-electrify-cut-global-fossil-ties
  
• how-climate-and-renewables-disinformation-networks-are-fuelling-a-major-national-security-threat
  
• gas-shortage-warnings-pushed-out-again-as-big-battery-boom-and-electrification-take-fresh-bite-from-demand
  
• hormuz-is-a-warning-australias-oil-problem-is-its-electrification-gap
  
• a-slam-dunk-rio-tinto-gets-2-billion-lifeline-to-shift-massive-smelter-from-costly-coal-to-firm-renewables
  
• a-home-battery-case-study-from-little-interest-in-storage-to-bills-that-are-always-in-credit
  
• developer-slams-lengthy-and-unnecessary-legal-battle-as-council-drops-case-against-wind-project
  
• Andrew Blakkers on oil-reserves-last-for-weeks-solar-panels-last-for-decades
• Patrick Commins on australia-generation-alpha-faces-185k-bill-over-lifetime-without-urgent-action-on-climate-crisis-report-finds
• Adam Morton on if-one-nation-wants-to-be-a-serious-political-player-barnaby-joyce-needs-to-get-his-facts-straight-on-the-climate-crisis

Northern America

• Bryan Walsh on iran-strait-hormuz-gas-prices-oil-natural-gas-fertilizer-food
• Kruggers on how-to-burn-less-oil , adventures-in-fantasy-diplomacy , treason-in-the-futures-markets , the-war-on-wind-continues , the-worst-and-the-dumbest
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-immigration-bad-for-america
• Mark Stern on alito-supreme-court-trump-voter-fraud-lies
• Peter Werner on trump-maga-conservatism
• renew economy on trumps-latest-bid-to-snuff-out-offshore-wind-pay-firms-not-to-build-it
• noahpinion on there-isnt-always-a-long-arc-of-morality
• the conversable economist on interview-with-erika-mcentarfer-firings-and-federal-statistics , the-growth-of-big-business-1900-2020 , bending-the-curve-of-health-care-costs-at-last
• Rodney Tiffen on trump-is-remaking-the-us-media-in-his-own-image-and-smashing-accountability-with-it
• Eric Levitz on iran-war-trump-george-w-bush-tucker-carlson-rogan
• Jonathan Chait on republican-hawks-israel-iran
• Eliot Cohen on iran-war-reveals-american-weakness
• Isaac Chotiner on how-donald-trump-may-have-sabotaged-his-chances-for-a-deal-with-iran
• home and away on michael-dukakis-had-a-point
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on donald-trumps-new-15-point-plan-is-the-biggest-sign-yet-that-washington-fears-it-is-losing-this-war
• David Remnick on the-first-casualty-of-trumps-war-in-iran-was-the-truth
• Alex Tabarrok on social-security-should-be-a-forced-savings-program-not-a-welfare-program
• Carol Leonnig on jack-smith-trump-classified-documents-financial-motive

Europe

• Guy Hedgcoe on multiple factors caused  2025 blackout in spain and portugal
• Lisa Martin on denmark-votes-amid-smouldering-us-alliance
• Menzie Chinn on the-ecb-and-its-watchers-xxvi
• Jonathan Lemire and Simon Schuster on nato-iran-war-trump-russia

Asia

• Mathew Powell on why-iran-is-attacking-gulf-energy-infrastructure
• Ian Werely on the-west-has-long-characterized-irans-oil-as-a-prize-to-be-claimed
• Natalie Klein on how-the-law-of-naval-warfare-applies-to-the-strait-of-hormuz
• noahpinion on china-is-quietly-looking-weaker
• Patrick Wintour on ran-war-conflict-middle-east-trump-israel
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-and-netanyahu-have-formed-a-convenient-coalition-behind-it-are-clear-divisions
• Vincent Durac on how-active-have-irans-proxy-groups-been-since-the-start-of-the-war
• Henry Storey on india-s-cautious-embrace-trade
• Jessica Genauer on iran-cant-win-this-war-but-it-can-force-a-us-retreat-using-these-4-insurgency-tactics
• Marianne Hanson on israel-wants-to-destroy-irans-nuclear-program-but-should-it-have-nuclear-weapons-itself
• Jason Reifler on iran-war-lacks-strategy-goals-legitimacy-and-support-in-the-us-and-around-the-world
• Iain Boyd on how-far-can-irans-ballistic-missiles-reach-a-defense-expert-explains-how-the-missiles-work-and-what-iran-can-and-cant-hit
• Neve Gordon on the-gaza-doctrine-iran-lebanon
• Ian Philbrick on iran-war-donald-trump-news-israel
• Oren Ziv and Ariele Caine on investigation-settlers-expand-area Thanks Elie

Wonk

• the unpopulist on marco-rubio-gets-western-civilizations-defining-features-all -wrong Thanks Nick
• lament for nations on fukuyamas-schmitt-posting Thanks Nick
• the fitzstack on the-manosphere-as-a-monument-to-progressive-cultural-power Thanks Nick
• ACD on most-work-is-translation Thanks Nick
• for a new democracy on whos-afraid-of-citizens-assemblies Thanks Nick
• persuasion on how-trans-activism-became-so-radical Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-costs-are-rising
• Tina Hunter on why-middle-east-gas-field-attacks-could-send-energy-prices-soaring
• Lauren Hall et al on fines-alone-wont-stop-big-tech-behaving-badly-heres-what-might-work
• Mathew Burkholder on evangelical-holy-war-why-some-christians-think-trump-will-end-the-world
• Eric Sand on strategy in the new missile age  Thanks Tyler
• Brad De Long on crosspost-paul-ford-the-ai-disruption-we-have-been-waitimg-for-has-arrived
• Laura Panza on this-is-how-the-1970s-oil-shock-played-out-there-are-lessons-for-the-economy-today
• Jane Kelsey on a-crucial-meeting-aims-to-remake-the-wto-to-fit-the-new-global-order
• Nancy Yousef and Missy Ryan on iran-us-asymmetrical-war
• Adam Hanieh on bottling-the-world-economy-hormuz-gulf
• Sanchari Ghosh on quad-s-coherence-problem
• Chris Dillow on on-advertising-bias
• Rob Nicholls on meta-and-google-just-lost-a-landmark-social-media-addiction-case-a-tech-law-expert-explains-the-fallout
• noahpinion on the-economic-consequences-of-the-iran-war , ai-has-the-worst-sales-pitch-ive-seen
• the conversable economist on when-keynes-did-not-win-the-nobel-peace-prize
• Yogi Febriandi on harnessing-islamic-philanthropy-save-lives-andaman-sea
• Menzie Chinn on geopolitics-becoming-key-risk-for-central-banks-panel

General

• Darius Sepehri on what-is-nowruz-the-iranian-new-year
• Dan Rockmore on in-defense-of-algebra-paul-lockhart

Climate

• John Cook et al on do-middle-earth-and-westeros-make-sense-climate-scientists-modelled-them-to-find-out
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-disrupts-the-biomineralization-process-in-the-oyster-crassostrea-virginica-via-intracellular-calcium-signaling-dysregulation-2 , co2-rise-modulates-the-physiological-performance-of-the-diatoms-thalassiosira-pseudonana-and-thalassiosira-weissflogii-to-light-challenge
• Andrew King on the-latest-world-climate-report-is-grim-but-its-not-the-end-of-the-story
• skeptical science on blue-ca-red-texas-green-power , fact-brief-windsyndrome , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• nutpie-state-of-the-art-mass-matrix-adaptation-for-hmc
  
• claimed-100-sensitivity-and-specificity-in-differentiating-autistic-individuals-from-typically-developing-controls-using-retinal-photographs-yeah-right
  
• space-mirrors-awesome-solution-to-our-energy-problems-or-ridiculous-public-relations-stunt
  
• how-earthquake-safe-are-vancouver-condos
  
• false-claims-in-a-published-no-corrections-no-consequences-welcome-to-the-business-school
  
• survey-statistics-individualism-and-the-cv-noise-problem
  
• notation-corner-when-you-have-several-different-expressions-that-are-mathematically-equivalent-you-dont-have-to-choose-just-one
  
• what-major-works-of-literature-were-written-after-age-of-85-75-65
  
• considering-some-anti-bayesian-arguments-in-the-context-of-fda-draft-guidance-for-the-use-of-bayesian-methods-in-clinical-trials
  
• frank-harrell-on-why-and-how-to-do-bayes-for-clinical-trials-and-the-recent-fda-draft-guidelines
  
• maybe-one-of-the-remaining-72-dolphins-will-read-this-one
  
• statschat on cars-vs-public-transport , as-and-when-it-looks-supportive
• Kaiser Fung on guide-to-using-pairs-of-circles
• freakometrics on a scalable toolbox for exposing indirect discrimination in insurance rates

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tim Harford on the-link-between-material-and-moral-flourishing-is-real
• open mind on project-hail-mary
• stoat on book-review-case-against-education

vox wonk

• cbdc-neutrality-bank-liquidity-and-hybrid-nature-bank-deposits 
  
• beyond-cost-cutting-how-foundational-process-innovations-drive-sustained-growth 
  
• ageing-china-chinas-pension-reform-debate-enters-new-phase 
  
• our-underappreciated-international-reserve-system 
  
• business-investment-era-digital-transformation
  
• economic-consequences-low-skilled-immigration-sudden-stop-evidence-koreas-guest
  
• dollarisation-waves-insights-bis-international-bond-database
  
• subsidising-supply-chain-how-chinas-industrial-policy-shapes-export-competitiveness 
  
• remote-work-can-blunt-fertility-decline
  
• rise-and-fall-eu-labour-shortages-recent-developments-and-some-forward-looking 
  
• how-interest-rates-affect-spending-household-debt-and-role-asset-prices  
  
• preparing-new-g20-alignment
  

Inflation

 the ABS released our monthly inflation rate. There was both good and bad news. The bad news was inflation barely budged at an annual rate. the good news is that for the second month inflation annualised was running within the RBAs target.

The other bad news was Trump's fooly of declaring war on Iran. This has raised the price of petrol. Because  it is ubiquitous it is like the GST being being raised. I think we can safely say the next CPI will show inflation above 4% and it rising to above 5% this year.

For history read THIS.

A supply side shock like this will cause a recession and the RBA reaction almost guarantees this. Rates wil almost certainly be raised in May and perhaps again after that.

This year is going to be tough!

Gerard Henderson watch

 Since the failure of catallaxy I have had no-one to examine like I could with Sinclair Davidsons absurdums.

However starting today I wil levery so often look at what Gerard Henderson is saying. It is almost always about the ABC.

For those who do not know of him he was the man who coined the Industrial relations club expression. This view has been controversial however I am sympathetic to the view. Henderson became Howard's chief of staff. He later essentially remade the Sydney Institute.

He recently made comments about Peter Hartcher on Insiders. He was quite critical that Hartcher said the vietnam war and the US invasion of Iraq were illegal just like the war on Iran. My guess is Hendo is saying the Gulf of Tonkin incident was fair dinkum, Most people believe it was made up making the war illegal.

Bush attempted to go through the UN in his desire to invade Iraq however he gave up. The USA invaded Iraq when it was under no threat from Iraq and it had no weapons that could pose a threat ( you know the alleged weapons of mass destruction. Few people believed the war had any legality.

I have yet to see any argument that the war with Iran has any legality at all.

Our Gerry doesn't like Grace Tame. He claimed the expression globalise the intifada is an expression of violence if not of murdering jews. He talks of jews being killed in both intifadas. No mention of palestinians being killed however even though their number far outweighed those of Israelis. No mention of the causes of the intifadas one or two.

Gerry does not elaborate on exactly how jews in australia could be killed. Indeed he does not elaborate on how an intifada could exist here.

I should add in ending he hates interviews at the ABC he claims  be soft yet quite easily the softest interview I have ever seen ( if you can call it an interview) was when Sharri Markson interviewed the Israeli PM who still is an indicted war criminal. our Gerry was mute.

what is happening in the middle east

 Clearly when Trump declared an illegal war on Iran he had no idea of what could occur in the strait of hormuz despite being told!

Trump wildy said he would obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure if tankers were not allowed to pass through.  See HERE for example.Trump really has no idea of the hurt Iran wants to do to the USA through the restrictions on oil and the rest. He and Israel has decimated the ruling structure of Iran thus why would they want to accommodate him?

Iran knows the political weakness Trump has regarding petrol prices thus their concentration on asymmetric warfare.

We also know that Trump lies like there is no tomorrow so I do not believe there is any talking between Iran and the USA. Trump now has time to come up with a reason to declare victory and get out. I should add Tr0mmp loves his own voice and has no self awareness and thus does not realise how incoherent he is and he believes his own lies. A terrible combination.

Iran scents blood and wants revenge a lot of revenge. Can Trump avert this. I doubt it.

If you vote a moron into office then you have to face the consequences !!

Oz Stuff

 SA

Well the ALP romped home see also Tony Barry  but it was a bad result.unless the ALP self-destruct there cannot be a change of government at the nest election. This is bad for democracy! The Liberals were decimated by one nation who actually had the second highest amount of votes.If one nation are consistent at one thing it is self destruction which seems always to happen after they get people elected to parliament. Why? I suspect part of the explanation is they do not want to be told to do things by something who is extremely stupid!

I think the main story is the biggest thing going for the the ALP is one nation taking part of the LNP vote hence i think they will start targeting them. This will be hard because they have few policies and you cannot simply say they are racist.

Petrol

Same old same old. People are panicking mainly the cow cockies and miners and then complain about supply. I suspect this problem will be around for some time simply because Trump has no idea about it. He di not understand this would occur despite being told about the dangers and has no idea of how to solve it.

Albo needs to make some phone calls where he says if you give us no petrol we won't give you any resources!

Victoria

One nation might allow the ALP to continue to govern after their election in november. This would be a travesty. Victoria desperately needs a change of government. It would be terrible if one nation stopped this. It could be worse if they were involved in government!