The Opposition on Immigration

 Angus Kelly released his new policy on immigration. See Michelle Grattan and Abul Rizvi.

I will merely note a few things.

• There is no evidence to back up assertions. It is very one nationesque.
• They want to examine social media accounts of every immigrant. This is utter Trumpist stupidity. Are we going to say no to anyone that criticises Australian policy?
• They are going to ban immigrants from Gaza. Again on what evidence? do they realise Palestinian Christians are over-represented in immigrants thus far. Do they think they are  potential terrorists?

Pauline Hanson can get way for portraying herself as an ignorant fool because she is one. Taylor cannot.

The other thing is we are a highly successful multi-cultural nation indeed an immigrant nation.

It was very poor policy. We can only hope it improves

update:

Amanda Vanstone does not think much of the policy.

The illegal war on Iran shows incompetence in action

 Not much time today.

The New York Times has a story on how the war in Iran started. It is authored by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan ( son of norman!). There is a book coming.

Bibi convinced Trump this would be a short very winnable war which would enhance his stature and polling. They convinced him that there would be regime change so the strait of homuz would not be a problem.

This shows incompetence at is best. Few questions are asked. No history is enquired about and the triumph of Venezuela goes to his head.

Alas for the world he is still there.

I  know it is not related but only a person who has lost his marbles would show himself as Jesus. Add that to destroying Iranian civilisation then he is crackers!

A few things

 Ben Roberts Smith

I have had a gutful of his supporters saying his arrest and forthcoming trial will mean a fall in recruitment. NO IT DOESN'T!!!  Most people have a moral compass, Roberts-Smith clearly did not. Remember he has was found guilty of war crimes on the basis of probability BUT not on beyond reasonable doubt. His behaviour led to Afghanis lacking any support for the allies in Afghanistan and thus lead to the taliban regaining power. To be honest he di not have the faintest idea of what fighting a war was all about.

Hungary

I was surprised Orban gave up power so easily after losing the general election. Perhaps it was the margin. He also di not realise most hungarians want to be europeans. It is also good news for Ukraine which is great too.

Democracy

The grattan institute ( easily the best in the country) has released a great paper on this subject. Wrap your head around it. It is both interesting and thought provoking.

Eric Swalwell

This man a californian democrat is being investigated for sexually assaulting several women. I am surprised at this. He is very good and does not seem remotely likely to do such a crime but we shall see. It is clear he will have to get out of the governor's job in California.

Around the Traps 10/4/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on housing-tax-reform-without-much-housing-reform , gdp-nowcast-q1-2026 , updated-weekly-fuel-prices
• Marit Kragt on winter-crops-need-to-be-sown-but-australias-farmers-are-worried-about-fertilisers-and-fuel
• Lydia Khalil on sovereign-citizen-challenge
• Mark the Ballot on attitudinal-polling
• Michelle Grattan on a-future-plan-on-fuel-should-be-central-to-albanese-governments-reform-agenda
• Graham Young on what-happens-to-centre-right-politics-if-onenation-continues-to-rise Thanks Nick
• Gareth Evans on bob-hawke-australian-prime-minister-gold-standard
• the pollbludger on newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march
• Katja Hanewald on this-little-known-government-scheme-can-help-retirees-tap-into-3-trillion-of-housing-wealth
• Robert Breunig on by-avoiding-means-testing-the-government-is-giving-handouts-to-the-rich
• Milad Haghani et al on is-free-public-transport-a-good-idea-it-depends-on-who-gets-on-board
• the tally room on measuring marginality beyond the pendulum
• Paul Taucher and Dean Aszkielowicsz on ben-roberts-smith-is-accused-of-5-war-crime-murder-charges-how-did-we-get-here
• Helen Bird on australias-biggest-stock-exchange-needs-tougher-competition-or-we-all-risk-paying-the-price
• Greg Jericho on australia-recession-economy-rba-trump-iran
• Kevin Morrison on does-the-iran-ceasefire-mean-the-fuel-crisis-is-over-not-even-close
• John Hawkins on was-the-hawke-government-really-the-gold-standard-for-reform
• Stella Huangfu on is-australia-at-risk-of-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-actually-shows
• Tom Barber on be-informed-not-just-alert

OZ Climate

• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• an-electric-farm-an-electric-harvest-electric-everything
  
• chart-of-the-day-how-renewables-have-helped-slash-emissions-on-australias-main-grid
  
• home-batteries-get-bigger-and-bigger-as-race-to-beat-rebate-changes-sparks-last-ditch-frenzy
  
• coal-to-liquids-coalitions-latest-energy-brain-fart-is-their-craziest-yet-and-that-takes-some-doing
  
• councils-flex-their-muscle-on-renewables-laying-down-the-local-law-on-roads-farmland-and-housing
  
• how-getting-landlords-into-heat-pump-hot-water-can-get-tenants-out-of-high-gas-bills
  
• we-just-need-more-why-australia-should-double-down-on-renewables-and-evs-not-drill-baby-drill
  
• the-clock-is-ticking-coal-is-down-prices-have-fallen-but-wind-projects-are-very-very-late
  
• australia-needs-to-rapidly-electrify-as-much-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible
  
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on 6-things-australia-should-do-to-tackle-the-energy-crisis-rather-than-just-building-bigger-fuel-reserves
• Bjorn Sturmberg and Arastoo Teymouri on growing-ev-popularity-is-leading-to-queues-at-fast-chargers-could-a-kerbside-charger-network-help

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on given-projected-population-is-the-administrations-forecast-plausible ,liberation-day-plus-one-year
• Kruggers on donald-trump-isnt-sounding-like-himself, living-in-hell , the-terrorist-in-chief , our-darkest-hour, ignorance-and-ignominy , job-growth-on-ice
• new deal democrat on march-jobs-report-the-birds-that-came-home-to-roost-play-an-april-fools-joke-shrieking-nevermind , losing-the-worlds-respect
• Mary McCord on pam-bondi-trump-attorney-general-fired-retribution
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling thanks Nick
• Ilan Goldenberg on I-wargamed-iran-for-obama-this-is-the-worst-case-scenario Thanks Nick
• Barbara Perry on presidential-communication-truth-social-trump-war
• Mick Ryan on trump-s-bridge-power-day-damning-america
• Srijan Shukla on taco-fallacy
• Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz on sam-altman-may-control-our-future-can-he-be-trusted
• noahpinion on i-told-you-this-would-end-badly , yes-assimilation-is-good
• the conversable economist on how-federal-spending-is-distributed-to-the-elderly-working-age-and-children
• Margaret Donovan and Rachel VanLanigham on war-crimes-rhetoric-power-plants-iran
• Andrew Prokop on trump-taco-iran-ceasefire
• Home and Away on special-edition-on-iran-civilization
• Rachel VanLandingham on trump-iran-war-crime-threat-ceasefire
• Rodrigo Praino on a-whole-civilisation-will-die-tonight-trumps-genocide-threat-against-iran-was-another-new-low-for-america
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-nato
• Molly Omstead on jd-vance-hungary-viktor-orban-christians
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• public notice on trump-stooges

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on auden-on-iceland
• Amr Algarhi and Adeola Oyebowele on how-brexit-reduced-the-city-of-londons-financial-clout-new-research
• ZsuZsanna Vegh on hungary-election-orban-rule-power
• Lisa Martin on europe-holds-its-breath-ahead-hungary-s-election
• Chris Dillow on in-it-for-themselves

Asia

• the conversation on how-will-the-iran-war-change-the-middle-east-we-asked-5-experts
• Joshua Keating on trump-threat-war-crimes-electricity-bridges
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-crimes-bomb
• Donald Rothwell on how-might-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-reopened-here-are-3-scenarios
• David Graham on trump-iran-civilization-threat
• Amin Saikal on the-us-israel-ceasefire-with-iran-presses-pause-on-a-costly-war-but-can-peace-last
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• the conversable economist on north-koreas-economy-how-to-study-a-data-black-hole
• Taufiq Rahim on the peace  Thanks Tyler
• Shanthie D'Souza on india-s-clean-energy-goals-set-challenges-bring-opportunities
• Jade Guan on same-old-formula-bigger-stakes-beijing-taiwan-s-opposition
• Anton Ponomarenko on mutual-benefits-ukraine-south-korea-partnership
• Courtney Fung and Andrea Ghiselli on iran-crisis-puts-china-s-un-diplomacy-test
• Joshua Keating on iran-nuclear-missiles
• Simon Schuster on china-taiwan-trump-iran-war
• Mark Nevitt on strait-hormuz-tolls-crisis

Wonk

• Mark the Graph on updated-energy-benchmarks
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon
• Tim Harford on what-if-ai-just-makes-us-work-harder
• noahpinion on salarymen-specialists-and-small-businesses , all-ai-all-the-time
• Konstantine Panegyres on despairing-at-the-state-of-the-world-the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-knew-the-feeling
• eminent americans on the-failure-to-be-interesting Thanks Nick
• David Bessis on thinking-fast-slow-and-super-slow Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on crosspost-cosma-shalizi-aware-of-internet-traditions , stochastic-lobsters-token-tsunamis , a-plea-to-chad-orzel , contemporary-governance-and-contemporary-prosperity-and-past-settler-colonialism-and-its-ilk
• Sitara Noor on ten-years-after-nuclear-security-summits-what-now
• Alex Tabarrok on ai-unemployment-and-work

General

• Andrew Barron on bumblebees-can-perceive-rhythm-despite-their-brains-being-the-size-of-a-sesame-seed
• anecdotal value on for-the-love-of-god-learn-to-paragraph Thanks Nick
• Peter Edwell on meet-diocletian-the-roman-emperor-who-retired-to-grow-cabbages

Climate

• real climate on spencers-shenanigans-part-i
• skeptical science on published-research-experiment-paper , fact-brief-windland , new_research
• ocean acidification on the-impact-of-climate-change-on-lobster-production-a-systematic-synthesis-of-literature

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• campus-newspapers-and-what-remains-of-journalism
  
• how-do-political-organizations-and-politically-minded-rich-people-translate-money-into-media-influence
  
• my-uninformed-and-completely-speculative-theory-about-jeff-bezos-and-the-washington-post
• survey-statistics-improving-with-structure
  
• an-application-for-training-deep-learning-models-in-your-browser
  
• statschat on kokako-goneburger

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-drama-no-spoilers
• Andrew Gelman on updike-in-tehran

Vox Wonk

• content-moderators-dilemma-how-removing-toxic-speech-distorts-online-discourse 
  
• how-emerging-markets-borrow-new-evidence-sovereign-bond-issuance 
  
• greening-border-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-incidence-eu-member-states-and
  
• knowledge-jobs-help-firms-influence-demand
  
• gig-jobs-and-crime-evidence-food-delivery-platforms-france
  
• how-far-apple-falls-evidence-social-mobility-across-oecd-countries
  
• why-firms-responses-corporate-taxes-differ-across-countries
  
• differences-ai-adoption-europe-and-us-explanations-and-implications-productivity
  

Use the 25th amendment use it now.

 Trump is unquestionably in cognitive decline. This is not unexpected. He is 80 excessively overweight and his father had dementia. He believes his own lies are the truth. He believes stories he makes up that cannot be true like his story about his uncle.

He threatened Iran with geoocide. He has constantly threatened war crimes which is a war crime in itself.

Trump threatened to put Iran back to the stone age.As Tom Nicholls says this surely meant using nukes!

His erratic behaviour makes him very unsuitable to be President. The war against Iran surely proves he has no idea of what he is doing. That someone as incompetent as Hesgeth is hid secretary of defence makes it worse.

Just replace with Vance and do it now!

A whole bunch of things

 In no order

• Ben Roberts-Smith is charged with war crimes. Just remember the Judge in the libel trial found him guilty on the balance of probabilities. He will only be found guilty if the evidence is beyond reasonable doubt. One thing against him was the Judge finding him a bully.
• Donald Rothwell raises three scenarios on how to open the strait of Homuz
• 6 ways to tackle the energy crisis. not hard to do
• ASX needs more competition. Who would have thunked it
• chargers for EV. Is there a solution?
• Brexit was bad for the city of london. That was an easy prediction.
• Tom Nicholls thinks Trump is threatening nukes. Use the 25th amendment please!
• Can you trust Sam Altman? 
• a personal story from Iran

Trump is mad

 Trump's threats against Iran are war crimes ( see Fred Kaplan and Joshua Keating ) and he acts like a terrorist. Is he trying to ape Netanyahu!  Late for me but Mick Ryan

When you blow up all energy infrastructure you are harming the civilian population who looked to you for support in removing the government. What you are doing is  strengthening the government and ensuring the population hates the USA!

What do you think Iran will do in retaliation?  I think the oil refineries and petro-chemical plants are in severe danger in countries 'supporting the USA' in the immediate area. Forget about oil getting past the strait of hormuz and put in the red sea as well!

Iran realises Trump's weakness and that is the economy. Pushing up petrol prices, fertiliser and chemicals will usher in first stagflation and then a recession as central banks react. They do not care about what happens to Iran as they will survive.

The mid-terms will become an absolute blood bath.

A rational person would realise all this. A severely impacted cognitive impaired person who unquestionably is suffering from dementia ( like his father) would not.