Thursday, 26 May 2022

Around the Traps 27/5/22

 it is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk


Wednesday, 25 May 2022

Why was Andrew Charlton successful and Kristina Kenneally unsuccessful

 At the election the ALP parachuted two people into ALP electorates.

Andrew Charlton won the seat of Parramatta with a swing to him. Kristina Kenneally lost the very safe seat of Fowler

Some may argue there was a media attack on Kenneally whereas Charlton was ignored. however if the media attacks in 'Teal 'electorates were unsuccessful then why they they succeed in Fowler. We can write this off.

Some have said their different characters affected voters with Charlton more likable. As this is just too related to above I think we can write this off as well.

Others have said the reasons for the parachuting were different. Kenneally was already in politics and was relegated to no. s in the senate for the ALP and thus unlikely to be in parliament after the election. Allied to this a local vietnamese born solicitor was bypassed. She was highly regarded  and had community links.

Andrew Charlton on the other hand di not elbow a local candidate out of the way and also was a highly successful businessman. He was in charge of Accenture at the time. I do like this but have no data to back this up.

The ALP will need to be very thoughtful about parachuting any 'star' candidates into safe seats in the future. If the candidates are good enough then surely they would win a pre-selection ballot.

Tuesday, 24 May 2022

Dutton has a hard road to walk

 It seems as Peter Dutton will be the new Opposition leader.

He has to come to terms with the fact the-election-shows-the-conservative-culture-war-on-climate-change-could-be-nearing-its-end.

He would need a road to Damascus conversion and even then he would still find it hard to gain credibility. I cannot state how important this is to the liberal party. If Dutton cannot gain credibility on climate change he will not get any of the 'teal' seats back. If he does not win back these seats the Liberals will not win back government.

Too many people from the Liberal side think he will be an effective Opposition leader because he is aggressive. They cite Tony Abbott as an example. Wait on. Abbott only gained success when the ALP started to fight among themselves. Just remember Abbott was never popular. The Liberals won despite him not because of him.

Being aggressive in parliament can be counter productive. More so when so many women have been elected. It also leads to many snafus which Dutton made as a minister.

He has not shown any strategic nous at all and like a lot of people ( like Albo) had a poor campaign.

Opposition leaders usually get rolled after a change of government. My guess is this will occur to Dutton.

Monday, 23 May 2022

Lessons from the election

 Okay let me say it again I was wrong. Climate change was THE big issue. clearly voters thought the Liberals were not to be trusted on climate policy ( because of the National party) and the ALP were not fair dinkum. They knew both the Teals and the Greens were. Let's face it the Greens have mad policies all over the place so it only makes sense to vote greens to ensure the ALP wakes up.

The Liberals are in a terrible bind. Having Peter Dutton as leader is bad enough as he is electoral poison but does anyone imagine he can convince teal voters to come back to the Liberals because they support polices to avoid climate change or  to set up a federal ICAC. It is highly pertinent to point out the Teals almost unanimously said a vote for the Liberals was a vote for Joyce and of course Canavan helped them enormously as well. Indeed Joyce and Canavan aped Bob Brown of the last election. At least he learned his lesson and shut up after the election was over.

There are arguments in some quarters to say Dutton will be a good opposition leader as he is aggressive like Abbott. Hang on Abbott was going now where until the ALP became disunited. Indeed those 'brilliant strategist' from the NSW right though they could still win when the ALP was in civil war because Abbott was Opposition leader.

Let us assume the ALP has learned their lesson. Its front bench is clearly superior to the LNP and has been for some time. Treasury has learned lessons from the 70s as well. Thus I do not expect any repeat of Whitlam.

Climate change will only grow as an issue in three years time as more and more evidence accumulates. This does bode well for the LNP. They will become the party for luddites if they are not careful. This will not be good for democracy.

The ALP has to do two things to my mind. First be more imaginative with regard to climate change. what about adopting a NED and advocate a price on carbon for the next election.

Secondly how will they do any budget repair? They said nothing on this in the campaign. Indeed their 'savings' measures were a joke. Treasury would undoubtedly want to  be more aggressive budget repair after the CPI rose so high (and will go even higher.)

We live interesting times

Sunday, 22 May 2022

Marking my beliefs to market

 I do like the way Brad De Long marks his beliefs to market every so often. Thus the election proves the perfect time to mark mine.

  • The election campaign would be too long to help the Liberals.  I was correct. Essentially this election was like 2013 in that the polls rarely changed at all.
  • Morrison is not a great campaigner.  I was correct. He did not gain any votes in the campaign.
  • Albo would get a rails run by journos in the campaign and they would be much harder on Morrison. I was wrong. They went very hard on Albo. Sometimes they were embarrassing. Morrison rarely answered questions which in the end exacerbated concerns about him. 
  • Parachuting Charlton and Kenneally into Parramatta and fowler were two different propositions. Charlton was a high quality candidate whilst Kenneally vastly over-rated.  Lets say I was mostly right.
  • News corp , Sky after dark ( and 2GB in sydanee) would get a black eye from their blatant biased coverage.  I was right on this.
  • Climate change would not be the most important policy of the campaign. I was wrong big time on this. The climate wars are over. I hope the ALP understands this. They have won but others have gained.

Thursday, 19 May 2022

Around the Traps 20/5/22

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Ausssie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 18 May 2022

Still no wage breakout

 The WPI came out yesterday. When we are at full employment the annual increase was a puny 2.4%. Given inflation is at 5.1% and climbing real wages are falling.

See HERE HERE and HERE

The RBA has egg all over its face and not for the first time on this very important topic. Me thinks it is because they have completely discounted the regulatory environment. THE ALP under Gillard further de-regulated the labour market rather than re-regulating it. This has led to further falls in union membership. You just aint going to get decent wage increases without increases in union membership.

Meanwhile Steve Kates, Judith Sloan and various Liberal politicians are still waiting like godot for that inevitable wages break out.  No they never mark their beliefs to market.


Given the election is in Saturday here are some interesting articles