Ukraine

One interesting development in this war is how Ukraine has completely tied up crimea. Ukraine drones have made roadkill of trucks transporting ammunition, oil, food etc on the M14. All the ferries are unusable and the Kerch bridge is standing but no truck can drive over it because of the damage. It is interesting Ukraine has not destroyed the bridge because they can.

Ukraine has destroyed most of the radar system in  crimea. This means it is much easier to destroy airfields, planes, tanks etc in crimea as well as allowing ukraine to have drone sorties into russia through this area.

Russia has a strong heartfelt feeling towards crimea. This is why they have not given up any territory there. They are transferring valuable resources to crimea from other areas which ukraine note and then attacks.

In normal times russia would sue for peace to keep crimea and well before people start getting out of there. Like Trump with Iran, Putin will not be able to explain such a peace deal and he cannot afford to have people from crimea fleeing the place.

I suspect without any expertise that Putin has to continue the war in the hope he will eventually win. He will not get accurate information only information his subordinates thinks he wants to hear. This is the problem a dictator has. Putin's background is in intelligence not the military hence his numerable mistakes in the war.

How will it all end? I suspect Putin will be replaced at some time. Perhaps his successor will bring tol ight how much he has stolen from his people. How does a former KGB officer end up a billionaire with multiple country estates?

We shall see

Noah on the ball

 Not much time today so I will highlight Noah Smith's latest article at noahpinion ( get it!).

I am sick of the rain. Is it King Charles reign?

A number of things

 One Nation.

 It seems they continue to surge. It also seems I was right. Both the Liberals and Nationals in particular would be decimated.It is still a long time until the next election and thus far one nation has been treated as a giggle party in that they have no sensible policies. They do not appear thus far to be hit by any scandals. Hanson can employ a convicted and unrepentant rapist yet nothing happens. Perhaps because in softball interviews which she favours she is not asked about it! Will this continue? I must admit I do not know.

Clearly she has no idea about immigration even when the questioner is confused. Ah yes Kenny interviewing Hanson.

Just a little bit more on this after talking to some friends. One Nation only talks to friendly journos where no hard questions are given, They bar the ABC from any press conferences. This is untenable in the long term. for example their immigration policy if you can call it that is horrible for regional cities. David farley acknowledged this in the Farrer by-election but then retreated. One Nation is hopeless at doing any due diligence on staff or candidates. Hanson is ugly, looks in her 80s when she is in her 70s and is stupid. This will eventually come through. In a campaign it will be either a lot of gaffes or a person who is anything but natural. In addition plenty of people such as Joyce or Farley wil think they should be leader rather than her BUT she has a lot of authoritarian tendencies. 

2PP

Kevin Bonham skews yet another attempt to discredit 2PP. Who would have thunk the IPA does not know what it talking about!

Ukraine

I thought I would make a small point. Ukraine only targets military targets. russia doesn't because they are both lazy and cruel and do not care about war crimes. Ukraine has made crimea almost undefendable because of this. ( check out Ben hodges on youtube he is the best on the war.) They won't invade crimea but they doo not have to; Ukraine is winning the war and Putin wil ldemand belarus help him.

Personal stuff

I recently had cataracts out. It is costly. I only need glasses for reading now and need new ones!. It is expensive for anyone thinking about it. I also had cancer taken out of my right ear. You need to look very closely to see the difference.

Around the Traps 22/5/26

 It is time again  for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Daniel Reeders on the-ndiss-original-sin Thanks Nick 
• Jonathan O'Brien on budget-2026 Thanks Nick
• Saul Eslake on why-labor-is-right-about-tax-and-housing Thanks Nick , death-tax-startups-and-a-rent-spike-its-time-to-correct-misleading-claims-about-labors-budget
• Mark the Graph on the-federal-budget-in-pictures , housing-shortages-and-the-elasticity-of.housing-demand, why-is-aussie-dollar-so-strong
• Mark the Ballot on the-slow-death-of-2pp , polling-update
• David Lee on australia-has-had-game-changer-budgets-before-how-does-chalmers-stack-up 
• Jason Nassios and Beth Webster on the-tax-changes-in-the-budget-only-scratch-the-surface-here-are-4-reforms-australia-needs-next 
• Tamara Wilkinson on are-this-budgets-tax-changes-really-an-assault-on-aspiration 
• Greg Jericho on labor-budget-changes-death-taxes-scare-campaigns-truth
• John Hopkins on 15-australian-companies-switched-to-a-four-day-work-week-it-went-surprisingly-well 
• Kevin Bonham on pre-and-post-budget-federal-poll-roundup 
• Josh Butler and Patrick Commins on australia-budget-labor-trust-changes-is-it-a-death-tax-explained

OZ Climate

• remarkable-milestone-bowen-says-home-battery-installations-continue-to-surge-pass-400000 
  
• australias-biggest-solar-farm-enjoys-less-curtailment-but-lower-prices-as-big-battery-starts-commissioning 
  
• state-green-lights-plan-for-australias-biggest-wind-farm-with-219-turbines-and-two-big-batteries 
  
• v2g-explainer-safety-and-the-current-state-of-turning-electric-cars-into-batteries-on-wheels 
  
• nsw-launches-its-biggest-ever-renewable-tender-to-kehttps://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-launches-its-biggest-ever-renewable-tender-to-keep-lights-on-and-push-down-prices/ep-lights-on-and-push-down-prices 
  
• its-not-rocket-science-were-obsessed-with-data-centres-but-the-easy-solution-is-the-way-we-heat-buildings 
  
• cannon-brookes-bankrolls-one-biggest-batteries-in-the-world-in-huge-bet-on-thermal-storage 
  
• some-of-australias-dirtiest-coal-mines-are-about-to-change-hands-heres-why-we-should-be-worried 
  
• when-the-grid-and-home-batteries-teach-consumers-to-withdraw-from-the-market
  
• Graham Readfearn on can-electric-trucks-win-over-australias-fossil-fuel-die-hards-or-is-diesel-here-for-the-long-haul 
• Petra Stock on fracking-south-australia-limestone-coast-peter-malinauskas-labor-broken-promise
• Juan Afsano and Heather Handley on geothermal-2-0-how-superhot-rocks-underground-could-help-power-australia
• Graeme Readfearn on one-nation-pauline-hanson-australia-questions-climate-science

Northern America

• Kruggers on g-elliott-morris-on-vibes-and-the-midterms, the-looting-of-america, from-dropping-bombs-to-dropping-bonds, a-whiff-of-stagflation
• Jeremiah Johnson on hasan-piker-china-cuba-authoritarian-leftist-socialism Thanks Nick 
• Fred Kaplan on trump-china-xi-jinping-summit-taiwan-what-happened, trump-iran-war-nuclear-reason-why
• Will Lockett on starship-is-going-nowhere thanks Brad
• Bill Haskell on five-charts-numerics-and-some-explanation-on-home-ownership-in-the-united-states
• Jonathan Lemire on aging-president-trump-health
• Alexandra Andhov and Ian Murray on elon-musk-sued-openai-and-lost-but-the-core-question-of-the-case-remains-unanswered 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-voting-rights-act-mostly-dead
• Jonathan Chait on trump-anti-weaponization-fund-january-6 
• newdeal democrat on the-bond-market-is-sending-a-message 
• Tyler Cowen on wokeness-has-peaked-what-followed-is-worse
• the conversable economist on a-foretaste-of-warsh-as-chair-of-the-federal-reserve
• Liz Dye on trump-weaponization-fund
• Jeet Heer on thomas-massie-primary-loss-trump-aipac, trump-economy-iran
• Mary McCord on domestic-terrorism-nspm-7-counterterrorism-strategy
• silver bulletin on disney-erased-fivethirtyeight thanks Brad 
• Jordan Rubin on judge-dismisses-kilmar-abrego-garcias-criminal-indictment-trump-doj

Europe

• Mark Beeson on starmers-troubles-may-be-self-inflicted-but-voters-everywhere-are-fed-up-with-leaders-lacking-courage 
• noahpinion on yes-europeans-are-poorer-than-americans
• Kruggers on europe-versus-america-a-wonkish-data-followup, challenging-the-narrative-of-european-decline-free-report
• Gorana Grgic on nato-would-survive-a-us-withdrawal-but-what-kind-of-alliance-would-it-become 
• Mainly Macro on why-labours-current-disarray-is-the-result-of-osbornes-austerity 
• Fiona Harvey on uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns
• Alex Nurse on andy-burnham-what-has-made-the-king-of-the-north-so-popular
• Brad De Long on crosspost-mark-koyama-nick-crafts

Asia

• Clive Schofield on thailand-and-cambodia-are-bickering-over-their-borders-again-can-diplomacy-prevent-a-return-to-war 
• Bernard Avishai on benjamin-netanyahus-war-at-home 
• the conversable economist on is-china-blocking-developing-economies
• Mohd Yunis on haze-over-southeast-asia-clouds-more-sky
• Adi Imsirovic on is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-the-oil-world 
• Jing Ge on japan-s-quiet-test-china-diplomacy 
• Isaac Chotiner on the-gaza-peace-plan-has-gone-nowhere
• Rushali Saha on assassination-plot-clouds-india-s-intelligence-ambitions

Wonk

• institutional economics on one-way-or-another 
• Steve Waldman on the-fiduciary-class Thanks Nick
• paroxysms on struggling-with-shakespeare Thanks Nick
• Robert Gilles on economic-mythology-part-1-what-money-is-not Thanks Nick
• Wesley Widmaier on after-an-opaque-summit-china-and-the-us-want-to-work-together-again-that-might-not-be-good-news-for-the-world 
• Tim Harford on betting-on-risk-changes-the-world 
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update
• Timothy Graham et al on the-market-moves-before-trump-posts
• Thomas Jeffries on what-you-need-to-know-about-the-ebola-outbreak-that-has-the-who-concerned
• noahpinion on all-non-drone-militaries-are-obsolete , roundup-82-staring-in-wonder-at-the-world
• the conversable economist on how-is-ai-affecting-the-quantity-and-quality-of-new-books 
• Michael Brennan on where-have-all-the-fiscal-hawks-gone-we-need-to-find-some-and-quickly 
• Raina MacIntyre on health-authorities-are-racing-to-contain-ebola-in-the-drc-and-uganda-heres-whats-making-it-so-challenging 
• Mark Pierce on exit-pursued-voters
• Calvin Ackley et al on productivity in the healthcare industry Thanks Tyler
• home and away on once-upon-a-time-in-china
• Alex Tabarrok on the-ais-are-one-of-us-now

General

• David Pritchard on what-is-the-thucydides-trap-xi-warned-trump-about-lessons-from-an-ancient-war-between-athens-and-sparta 
• Oscar Vorobjovas-Pinta on how-public-voting-has-turned-eurovision-from-a-song-contest-into-a-political-platform
• noahpinion on dating-advice-for-men
• Jorgo Ristevski et al on 129-000-years-of-crocodiles-what-we-know-about-australasias-ancient-apex-predators
• Chris Kirkland and Anthony Clarke on rare-567-million-year-old-fossils-refine-our-understanding-of-early-animal-evolution

Climate

• Joshua Hill on coal-pollution-is-significantly-reducing-the-output-of-solar-panels-leading-study-finds 
• ocean acidification on large-scale-atmospheric-circulation-and-its-impact-on-the-baltic-sea-region-controls-predictability-and-consequences 
• renew economy on from-hockey-sticks-to-ev-fires-the-circular-economy-of-climate-disinformation
• skeptical science on five-things-el-nino-comeback
• Eric Holthaus on marine-heatwave-west-coast

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-are-there-squares-everywhere-in-statistics-normal-variance 
  
• if-books-could-kill-podcast
  
• whats-the-definition-of-a-professional-career-2 
  
• mrplew-locally-equivalent-weights-for-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification 
  
• 19/j 
  
• survey-statistics-greg 
  
• what-do-i-think-about-that-proposed-arxiv-policy-to-ban-authors-of-papers-with-ai-slop 
  
• the-quick-fix-why-fad-psychology-cant-cure-our-social-ills
  
• dont-cite-sources-you-havent-read-and-dont-trust-when-people-claim-to-be-reporting-something-from-the-literature
  
• junk charts on updating-the-unemployment-chart

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , in-the-realm-of-the-last-man

vox wonk

• mapping-household-level-transmission-monetary-policy 
  
• foreign-currency-funding-risk-and-global-financial-stability 
  
• immigrant-integration-europe-progress-without-full-convergence 
  
• macroeconomics-tariffs-global-production-and-finance-networks 
  
• devil-tail-how-firms-beliefs-about-rare-macroeconomic-disasters-shape-investment 
  
• skipping-factory-service-led-growth-sub-saharan-africa 
  
• measuring-capital-account-openness-why-intensity-matters 
  
• when-energy-shocks-bite-harder-non-linear-inflation-dynamics
  
• smarter-approach-electricity-rationing
  
• state-contingent-debt-premia-may-be-lower-you-think 
  
• beyond-borders-within-societies-inequality-and-global-transmission-us-monetary-policy
  

Defining anti-semitism

 It isn't hard to define anti-semitism however too many people want to have a definition which makes criticism of israel anti-semitic.

Jillian Segal came up with exactly that. This was not unexpected given she is a member of the jewish lobby ( they support the government of israel.) The government unfortunately gave in and supported this definition. Timid politicians do not like nuance! Both the ABC and SBS have rightly rejected the defiction. the Royal Commision has not.

what I find curious is that they adopt a controversial definition then sorta have a debate about the topic.

One of the problems of the definition is it aligns all jews anywhere with the government of Israel. Hence some people will criticize jews for supporting Israel committing genocide and war crimes against palestinians in Gaza when a lot do not. It also exacerbates the trope that jews serve two masters and Israel is the major one!

The rise in anti-semitism world wide is related to this. Iran's hand cannot be ruled out either as we know so well here.

It is not fair to ask every jew whether they support every action of the Israeli government just like it isn't fair to ask any muslim  whether they support the actions of any islamic terrorist.

If you wrongly define a  problem then you will not come up with a solution.

the trump administration is totally corrupt

 The $1,776b slush fund is not the final straw, it is merely a very good example of a very corrupt system.

The DOJ is now the legal department for Trump not for the country. They have essentially lost the legal presumption of regularity. Basically because they have been caught out lying and playing loose with the truth

When comey was origginally imdicted we eventually found out from the magistrate judge it was done illegally. The illegal attorney told the grand jury things which we not part of the law. We do not know whether this was deliberate or simply ignorance.

It would not be surprising if this has occurred with Comey again and the Southern Law Poverty Centre. If I was a defendant I would be asking for an investigation of the grand jury every time a suspect indictment comes around.

This brings us to Todd Blanche. He used to have a decent reputation as a prosecutor. No longer. He no longer represents trump but he continues in his job as he does. Trump can only do his corrupt work if blanche okays it.  He signed off that the trumps will no longer have a tax audit. This shows he does not understand what a conflict of interest is not what ethics are.

It is up to the voters in the USA to do something about this. If not they deserve everything that occurs after that if not now. did they not expect a convicted criminal to conduct a lawless administration?????

domestic politcs

 A few things have caught my eye.

tobaccy tax

The critics have lined up and are saying the g\overnment must cut the tobacco excise to reduce the blackmarket in this good. hold on Surely black market tobacco will always be cheaper then legal tobacco. That's right no matter how much you cut the escise black market tobacco will always be cheaper.

Notice how this argument completely misses out on the supply side. A lot of stores have opened up selling black market tobacco amongst other things. It reminds somewhat of my youth where videeo stores would sell black market porno videos.

Death taxes

This is quite a stretch. critics are alleging that under a trust a kid or kiddies will be taxed if both parents die BEFORE they 'come of age'. Now to be fair I am all in favour of death duties but this isn't that. This is in the extremely unusual situation of both parents dying the children would not get all the money the parents have left. My understanding this occurs if there is no trust anyway as children can only have limited income until they are taxed.

Negative gearing

Negative gearing where interest payments are higher than the rent received only encourages speculation not investment. An investor would require positive gearing. Read Saul Eslake.

Just to end on a related subject Mark the Graph on showing the budget in pictures

Yikes how could I forget Immigration.

Both the LNP and one nation want immigration slashed. Okay first hit are universities. Well they say Australian tertiary institutions should only be for australians. Okay that means more payments to them for the government because aussie students unlike overseas students are NOT full fee paying students. This is a lot of money. 

Most industries in regional australia are reliant on immigrants and/or people with tourists visas (backpackers for example). The building trade needs immigrants to continue to thrive. Count them out and it becomes harder to build houses. Immigrants also bring in more tax revenue than any take in benefits.

Saul Eslake again on a lot