Do masks work?

 Thanks to Nick Gruen's wonderful weekly  e-mail we get masks-work-distorting-science-to-dispute-the-evidence-doesnt

A must read

Trump Biden and dementia rissk

 Andrew Gelman writes an interesting article entitled donald-trumps-and-joe-bidens-ages-and-conditional-probabilities-of-their-dementia-risk.

Very interesting as Mr Spock would say.

Around the Traps 30/9/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on the-many-contradictions-of-macfarlane-and-lowe
• Renee McKibbin on no-the-rba-review-wont-mean-handing-the-banks-decisions-to-part-time-outsiders
• David Brewster on australia-s-support-bangladesh-will-bolster-regional-stability
• Ross Gittins on whats-kept-us-from-full-employment-is-a-bad-idea-that-wont-die, labor-sets-out-its-alternative-to-neoliberalism, albanese-wants-to-put-full-employment-back-on-its-throne
• Andrew Podger on pezzullo-story-points-to-serious-systemic-problems-in-the-australian-public-service
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-nothing-has-stopped-the-declining-trendline, not-poll-reset-andrews-resigns
• Bruce Wolpe on why-the-voice-could-be-a-bulwark-against-trumpism-gaining-a-stronger-foothold-in-australia
• Paul Strangio on dan-andrews-leaves-office-as-a-titan-of-victorian-politics-who-drove-conservatives-to-distraction
• Antony Green on daniel-andrews-resigns-ad-victorian-premier
• croaking cassandra on labours-fiscal-plan
• Greg Jericho on rba-reserve-bank-australia-cpi-inflation-figures-interest-rates
• Judith Ireland on australian-universities-have-dropped-in-the-latest-round-of-global-rankings-should-we-be-worried

OZ Climate

• Renee Prokopavicuis et al on we-need-urban-trees-more-than-ever-heres-how-to-save-them-from-extreme-heat
• Graham Readfearn on what-is-the-climate-crisis-doing-to-australias-weather-extremes-a-coalition-frontbencher-gets-it-patently-wrong
• Muhammad Razman on what-causes-lithium-ion-battery-fires-why-are-they-so-intense-and-how-should-they-be-fought-an-expert-explains
• Pep Canadell on the-green-energy-surge-still-isnt-enough-for-1-5-degrees-well-have-to-overshoot-adapt-and-soak-up-carbon-dioxide
• rooftop-solar-meets-all-of-south-australia-demand-in-major-new-milestone
  
• green-industry-urged-to-club-together-in-clean-energy-hubs-and-cut-transmission-spend
  
• no-new-solar-latest-data-shows-new-renewable-projects-at-near-standstill-on-the-grid
  
• big-battery-to-the-rescue-as-rooftop-pv-pushes-biggest-isolated-grid-to-record-demand-lows
• want-energy-democracy-paying-networks-to-install-community-batteries-is-not-the-way
  

Northern America

• Jared Mondschein on americas-leaders-are-older-than-theyve-ever-been-why-didnt-the-founding-fathers-foresee-this-as-a-problem
• Marin Cogan on biden-federal-office-of-gun-violence-prevention
• Zack Beauchamp on america-democracy-authoritarianism-tyranny-minority-levitsky-ziblatt
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-acheson-hotels-deborah-laufer-testers-disabilities-hotel-website, supreme-court-alabama-allen-milligan-racial-gerrymander-defiance
• Li Zhou on north-carolina-republicans-elections
• Andrew Prokop on bob-menendez-indictment-charges-corruption-scandal-bribery-wife
• the conversable economist on hbcus-the-evolving-challenge, us-capital-is-depreciating-faster, initial-reactions-to-the-amazon-antitrust-case, some-economics-of-pharmacy-benefit-managers
• Menzie Chinn on boloori-saghafian-health-and-economic-impacts-of-lockdown-policies-in-the-early-stage-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states
• Patricia O'Brien on us-under-pressure-conclude-compact-agreements-north-pacific
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-likely-government
• Ved Shinde on foreign-policy-begins-home-ask-trudeau
• Nicole Narea on trump-fraud-new-york-business-case
• Steven Lubet on john-roberts-supreme-court-ethics-rules
• Tom Nichols on america-us-democracy-conservative-party
• renew economy on rich-white-americans-the-most-likely-to-oppose-wind-farms-says-study
• slow boring on polarization-is-a-choice Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on those manufacturing jobs we want back were good for a reason Thanks Brad
• Raymond Scheppach on gop-shutdown-threat-is-the-wrong-way-to-win-a-budget-war-history-shows-a-better-strategy-for-reducing-the-deficit
• newdeal democrat on why-the-public-still-views-inflation-as-a-major-problem-despite-the-official-numbers
• Seth Feaster and Dennis Hampstead on solar-delivers-texas-grid-reliable-output-peak-demand

Europe

• Ellen Ioannes on conflict-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-armenia-russia-turkey-explained
• Tim Harford on the-uk-is-doing-a-shoddy-job-keeping-up-with-its-neighbours
• noahopinion on germany-needs-to-stop-messing-around
• writing from london on disaster-conservatism-theres-nothing-to-save-from-the-tory-years thanks Brad
• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Maylarenko on ukraine-war-mixed-signals-among-kyivs-allies-hint-at-growing-conflict-fatigue
• Juliette McIntyre on ukraine-and-russia-traded-barbs-in-the-uns-top-court-over-the-legality-of-the-invasion-what-could-happen-next-in-the-case

Asia

• Mark Beeson on libya-s-unlearnable-lessons
• Benjamin Silberstein on historical-roots-north-korea-s-lucky-break-russia
• Fakhrido Susilo and Jaysa Prana on indonesia-s-long-term-geostrategic-ambition-what-s-missing
• Dave Sharma on israel-saudi-arabia-finally-new-middle-east
• Matiullah Qazizada on why-humanitarian-aid-vital-afghanistan
• Marina Yue Zhang on chinas-new-anti-espionage-law-is-sending-a-chill-through-foreign-corporations-and-citizens-alike
• Adnaan Amir on kalash-are-under-threat-pakistani-taliban
• David Schulman on heading-toward-a-second-nakba-a-day-in-the-life-of-abed-salama
• noahopinion on what-if-xi-jinping-isnt-that-competent
• Dereck Grossman on japan-risks-its-reputation-oceania-fukushima-discharge

Wonk

• Andrew Dodd on why-is-rupert-murdoch-stepping-aside-now-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-company
• Lorna Grisby on rupert-murdoch-his-fox-news-legacy-is-one-of-lies-with-little-accountability-and-political-power-that-rose-from-the-belief-in-his-power-3-essential-reads
• Grace Stanhope on post-disaster-aid-developing-fragile-states
• noahopinion on argentinas-macroeconomic-situation-is-even-worse-up-close, why-do-economists-get-paid-more-than-sociologists
• the conversable economist on rising-coffee-prices-a-story-of-supply-shocks
• Javier Blass on africa-s-lost-decade-economic-pain-underlies-sub-saharan-coups Thanks Brad
• Chris Fleming on explainer-the-philosophy-of-jean-jacques-rousseau-is-profoundly-contemporary
• Nick Gruen on the-academy-and-partners-try-wellbeing-frameworks
• Yastreblanksy on identity-politics Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on challenges-to-strong-golden-rule-mmt-bond-market-paranoia
• stumbling and mumbling on against-politics
• institutional economics on commodities-for-the-long-run-are-real-commodity-prices-trending
• Jeet Heer on hardeep-singh-nijjar-narendra-modi
• Kevin Munger on the-tragedy-of-stafford-beer

General

• Evangeline Mantzioros on are-fish-oil-supplements-as-healthy-as-we-think-and-is-eating-fish-better
• Brackety Jack on Absent gods Absent Catastrophes Thanks Brad

Climate

• Christian Turney et al on carbon-removal-why-ambitious-no-nonsense-plans-are-vital-to-limit-global-heating-to-2
• Real Climate on the-scafetta-saga, old-habits
• Inga Smith et al on as-antarctic-sea-ice-continues-its-dramatic-decline-we-need-more-measurements-and-much-better-models-to-predict-its-future
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-co2
• Andrew Freedman on antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-record-low
• Peter Sinclair on graph-of-the-week-small-modular-nuke-maker-sees-stock-value-plunge

Andrew Gelman ( mainly statistics)

• again-why-i-dont-like-to-talk-so-much-about-p-hacking
  
• stupid-legal-arguments-and-moral-hazards
  
• psychology-needs-to-get-tired-of-winning
  
• how-many-hours-should-students-spend-in-class-compared-to-doing-homework
  
• how-to-teach-certain-tricky-things-such-as-the-difference-between-standard-deviation-and-standard-error
  
• we-live-in-a-time-of-mad-kings-megalomaniacal-sociopaths-granted-dangerous-power-through-wealth-and-or-political-position-prone-to-wild-schemes-of-empire-and-grandeur
  
• where-should-we-go-to-see-the-total-eclipse-heres-a-graph-id-like-to-see
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• classes-elites-and-people
  
• Patrick Marren on Fatal Certainty Thanks Brad
• Johanna Hannick on emily-wilson-iliad-translation-review
• Sean Turnell on fix-all-roads-lead-white-house
• Brad De Long on american-democracy-republicans-viewing-democrats-as-mortal-enemies
• Georgina Downer on aukus-debate-after-fact-still-worth-having

Vox Wonk

• bonds-premium-impact-insurers-corporate-bond-issuers
  
• forward-looking-labour-supply-responses-changes-pension-wealth
  
• fear-or-knowledge-impact-graphic-cigarette-warnings-tobacco-product-choices
  
• fast-slow-and-congested-urban-transportation-rich-and-poor-countries
  
• insulating-properties-inefficient-loan-enforcement-european-firms
  
• women-are-less-engaged-trade-why-and-what-do-about-it
  
• nowcasting-trade-value-added-indicators
  
• economic-approach-personality-character-and-virtue
  
• innovation-and-appropriability-revisiting-role-intellectual-property
  
• retail-central-bank-digital-currency-and-social-costs-liquidity-provision
  
• art-and-science-patience-relative-prices-and-inflation
  
• wages-and-vacancy-duration
  
• perspective-great-reallocation-global-supply-chains
  

Bob Dylan

 Not a lot of time as my wife flies off.

Here is Bob Dylan doing Maggies Farm live with electric instruments. It was very controversial at the time as folk singers simply did not use electric instruments.  It features one of my favourite guitarists. Mike Bloomfield.

some Climate stuff

 Very little time today as my wife is off to the Stans. ( Okay she is missing Pakistan and Afghanistan for obvious reasons.)

Here is Real Climate on old-habits.

Short but interesting

Pezzullo looks gone to me.

 Okay a few articles on Pezzullo

• Andrew Podger
• Michelle Grattan
• Steve from Brisbane
• Clancy Moore

My view is he is gone. He strayed from being a public servant to being a political player Murdoch style.

A News publisher can get away from this but not a public servant.

Should we be worried if Trump wins the Presidency again?

In a two horse race you should never write off anyone.

During the last week we have had two interesting articles on US politics and its 'dark'  element.

There is Simon Wren-Lewis and Zack Beauchamp.

I am in the camp that the institutions are not yet corrupted totally. We saw this in Nzii Germany for example. 

Trump can replace everyone in the Justice Department if he wants but look out for the legal fights for people getting sacked for doing their job! They still need to convive a grand Jury to get an indictment and even then that does not mean a successful prosecution. Last ti9me Trump directed his A/G to prosecute two people. One was thrown out of court and the other found not guilty.

It would mean a lot more work for the President following trump HOWEVER it is more than likely Trump would not be able to fill all the vacancies and those that did would be less than competent.

Yes be afraid and the authors make valid points but do not run off the cliff as yet.