A whole bunch of things

 In no order

• Ben Roberts-Smith is charged with war crimes. Just remember the Judge in the libel trial found him guilty on the balance of probabilities. He will only be found guilty if the evidence is beyond reasonable doubt. One thing against him was the Judge finding him a bully.
• Donald Rothwell raises three scenarios on how to open the strait of Homuz
• 6 ways to tackle the energy crisis. not hard to do
• ASX needs more competition. Who would have thunked it
• chargers for EV. Is there a solution?
• Brexit was bad for the city of london. That was an easy prediction.
• Tom Nicholls thinks Trump is threatening nukes. Use the 25th amendment please!
• Can you trust Sam Altman? 
• a personal story from Iran

Trump is mad

 Trump's threats against Iran are war crimes ( see Fred Kaplan and Joshua Keating ) and he acts like a terrorist. Is he trying to ape Netanyahu!  Late for me but Mick Ryan

When you blow up all energy infrastructure you are harming the civilian population who looked to you for support in removing the government. What you are doing is  strengthening the government and ensuring the population hates the USA!

What do you think Iran will do in retaliation?  I think the oil refineries and petro-chemical plants are in severe danger in countries 'supporting the USA' in the immediate area. Forget about oil getting past the strait of hormuz and put in the red sea as well!

Iran realises Trump's weakness and that is the economy. Pushing up petrol prices, fertiliser and chemicals will usher in first stagflation and then a recession as central banks react. They do not care about what happens to Iran as they will survive.

The mid-terms will become an absolute blood bath.

A rational person would realise all this. A severely impacted cognitive impaired person who unquestionably is suffering from dementia ( like his father) would not.

Bondi gawn

 Mary McCord writes a great article on this.

Let me make a few points.

• Both Bondi and Blanche started their DOJ careers with first class reputations, both declined considerably.
• Over 8k has either been sacked or resigned during their tenure.
• Only an idiot would think this would not have a negative impact on the DOJ yet they did not see this. They are now attempting to employ any person that has a law degree!
• Both a very poor political operators. Bondi's handling of the epstein files was has worse than bad, her Senate hearing embarrassing and not even turning to face Epstein survivors was very poor.
• You cannot promise to prosecute Trump 'enemies if they have committed no crime.
• Comey and James were only just indicted because of unlawful instructions as we learned from the magistrate judge.
• Quite a few attorneys were deemed unlawful on her watch on a similar bent.

Bondi was inexplicably bad at the law but much worse at the politics. Her successor maybe be better but the law is the law and you need actual evidence to prosecute.

Easter music

 Colin Davis conducting the greatest song from the greatest oratorio ever written

Around the Traps 3/4/26 Good Friday edition

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling
• George Verikios on war-could-add-an-extra-5-to-prices-in-australia-but-theres-one-sector-that-shields-the-economy
• Mark the Graph on cpi-reform-wont-fix-housing
• Allan Behm on trump-is-impotently-railing-against-the-uss-allies-albanese-is-right-to-avoid-the-presidents-global-catastrophe
• Locky Lui et al on halving-the-fuel-excise-is-smart-politics-but-flawed-policy
• Patrick Commins on property-tax-rules-landlords-investments-house-prices-australia
• Greg Jericho on australia-land-grab-young-people-little-hope-buying-home
• Michelle Grattan on nearly-half-our-permanent-migrants-are-working-below-their-skill-level-former-treasury-secretary
• Samantha Thomas and Hannah Pitt on small-and-underwhelming-albaneses-gambling-reforms-wont-do-much-to-reduce-harm

OZ climate

• australia-has-already-passed-gas-the-market-is-just-updating-its-paperwork
  
• local-council-drops-court-case-against-one-of-australias-most-hotly-contested-wind-projects
  
• floods-inflation-insolvency-transgrid-says-blowout-in-transmission-costs-entirely-out-of-its-control
  
• indefensible-fossil-fuel-lies-have-crippled-climate-action-so-why-did-senate-inquiry-have-to-pull-its-punches
  
• peak-load-is-expected-to-double-as-industries-flock-to-australias-world-first-100-pct-renewables-grid
  
• transmission-superhighways-will-revolutionise-energy-but-distribution-network-roads-will-drive-the-transition
  
• electric-trucks-are-increasingly-competitive-and-could-be-a-thing-if-only-the-transport-minister-would-listen
  
• home-battery-rebates-and-soaring-diesel-costs-bring-electrification-to-the-masses
  
• a-fair-energy-system-is-worth-fighting-for-but-without-playing-the-solar-and-battery-blame-game
  
• its-a-risky-strategy-why-delaying-coal-closures-may-backfire-on-price-and-reliability
  
• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• seize-the-day-time-to-let-solar-daylight-saving-in-batteries-reduce-our-costs-in-australia
  
• Saman Gorji and Alireza Ganjovi on australias-rooftop-solar-boom-left-apartment-residents-behind-heres-how-to-fix-it
• David Bowman on we-have-the-proof-that-logging-makes-tasmanias-forests-more-flammable

Northern America

• institutional economics on maga-globalism
• Christian Paz on israel-maga-iran-religious-catholic-evangelical-zionism-dispensationalism-vatican-anti-semitism-tucker-huckabee-ted-cruz
• Kruggers on is-america-suffering-from-the-resource-curse , pete-hegseth-believes-in-the-lethality-fairy , the-psychology-of-military-incompetence , $4-gasoline-is-less-than-half-the-story, in-batteries-we-trust
• Brad De Long on confused-notes-on-the-war-on-iran , trump-doesnt-even-have-the-courage-to-run-away
• David Kang on trump-us-power-iran
• noahpinion on maybe-you-should-have-bought-an-electric-car
• Mary McCord on doj-michael-flynn-settlement-trump-lies
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oil-shocks-raise-recession-odds-and-inflation-risks
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-speech-tonight
• David Frum on trump-iran-war-oil-prices
• Ian Millhiser on pam-bondi-incomptent-justice-department
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-iran-holy-war, trump-iran-speech-analysis-reaction
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-speech-lies
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-why-pam-bondi-fired-worst-attorney-general
• the conversable economist on trumps-tariffs-one-year-later-predictably-disappointing

Europe

• Michael Haas on breakthrough-method-netherlands Thanks Nick
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-ground-robots-are-increasingly-going-offensive

Asia

• Chang Che on how-china-learned-to-love-the-classics Thanks Nick
• Justin Bergman on why-hasnt-the-us-military-used-force-to-secure-the-strait-of-hormuz
• Shanthie D'Souza on what-india-s-game-wto
• Tommy Chai on after-america-how-southeast-asia-can-defend-itself
• Mark the Graph on groupthink-with-group-of-one
• Anna Brennan on a-war-without-accountability-why-the-middle-east-crisis-is-also-a-legal-quagmire
• Shannon Bosch on new-israeli-law-could-mean-death-penalty-by-default-for-palestinians-convicted-of-deadly-attacks
• Flavio Macau on why-a-second-global-shipping-chokepoint-could-soon-live-up-to-its-name-as-the-gate-of-tears
• Mick Ryan on iran-land-war-illusion
• Amin Saikal on trump-underestimated-irans-resilience-now-there-is-only-one-way-out-of-the-war
• anonymous on from-the-rooftops-of-tehran
• noahpinion on how-japan-has-changed-in-the-last-20-years
• the conversable economist on india-and-the-service-sector
• Charles Jones on beware-pakistan-s-general-bearing-peace-talks
• Martin Kear on what-is-benjamin-netanyahus-end-game-in-the-iran-war
• Aarti Betigeri on soft-power-politics-sari-diplomacy

Wonk

• Luke Foster on the-spirit-of-a-gentleman Thanks Nick
• John Ehrett on knowing-what-time-it-is Thanks Nick
• Sam Kriss on ai-startup-roy-lee Thanks Nick
• Mathew Crawford on the-totalitarianism-of-the-open-society Thanks Nick
• digressions impressions on on-moyn-on-popper-and-democratic-imperialism Thanks Nick
• Richard Baldwin on why-didnt-trumpian-tariffs-wreck-the-world-trade-system Thanks Brad
• artificial bureaucracy on kill-chain Thanks Nick
• the one percent rule on william-james-and-the-psychology-of-habit Thanks Nick
• Robert Lynch on how-technology-re-tribalized-us Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-prices-update
• Tim Harford on the-refreshing-power-of-disagreement
• noahpinion on plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the-age-of-AI
• Jack Sato on what-raisina-2026-revealed-about-world-pulling-apart 
• Bernard Stewart on strongest-evidence-yet-that-vaping-likely-causes-cancer
• the conversable economist on overconfident-ai
• dead for tax reasons on the-1990s-called-they-want-their-economic-policy-back
• Kruggers on the-oil-crisis-is-about-to-get-physical
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch-16
• Samir Bhattacharya on spillover-sudan
• Izabella Watts on is-cuba-next
• Frances Shin on brics-promised-new-world-order-iran-war-shows-it-can-t-deliver
• Marigold Black and Iain Magillivray on america-s-nuclear-umbrella-fraying-indo-pacific
• Jana De Kluiver on blocking-south-africa-g7-g20-carries-wider-message-world
• Henry Yep on when-confidence-becomes-policy
• institutional economics on headlong-into-the-kindleberger-trap
• Richard Haass on nearing-a-fork-in-the-road-on-iran
• Peter Beaumont on us-war-crimes-iran-civilian-infrastructure-international-law-school-strike

General

• Matt Fish on one-hit-wonders Thanks Nick
• Paul Tacon et al on nt-rock-art-thousands-of-years-old-sheds-new-light-on-the-mysterious-tasmanian-tiger
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon

Climate

• open mind on snowpack
• skeptical science on GWP-20-terrible-idea , new_research
• ocean acidification on state-of-the-global-climate-2025
• Benji Jones on god-squad-gulf-mexico-rices-whales-endangered-species

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• should-you-include-a-list-of-retractions-and-corrections-along-with-a-list-of-publications-on-your-cv
  
• 12-dimensional-chess 
  
• these-are-the-three-ways-of-attacking-a-statistical-problem-illustrated-with-the-nfl-example
  
• the-point-of-yesterdays-post-on-the-three-ways-of-attacking-a-statistical-problem
  
• black-and-white-gray-and-in-between-what-color-is-the-media
  
• survey-statistics-design-based-cross-validation-dcv
  
• this-evil-lottery-scam-appears-to-be-aided-and-abetted-by-google-apple-yahoo-morningstar-msn-etc-etc
  
• shameless-plug-alert-win-prizes-by-forecasting-real-healthcare-data-to-help-uks-health-service-save-lives
  
• is-your-model-converging
  
• im-a-big-fan-of-the-library-you-never-know-what-youre-gonna-find-there
  
• cremieux recueill on social-scientists-are-lazy Thanks Nick
• freakometrics on fair regression under localised demographic parity constraints
• Kaiser Fung on why-only-me , know-your-data-47-ai-solves-missing-connections-or-not
• statschat on briefly

Dianne Coyle  ( quirky + book reviews)

• march-reading
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• it-may-be-time-sweden-join-euro 
  
• war-and-lost-generation-inventors 
  
• powering-digital-economy-global-expansion-data-centres-and-its-energy-implications 
  
• geography-science
  
• designing-fiscal-consolidation-achieve-fiscal-sustainability-and-sustainable
  
• china-spillovers
  
• pitting-migrants-against-babies-why-it-does-not-make-economic-sense 
  
• free-rider-innovator-how-china-became-global-pharmaceutical-powerhouse 
  
• gender-norms-and-labour-market
  
• information-equalisation-and-competition-selection-markets-evidence-auto-insurance 
  
• world-war-trade-domino-regionalism-emergent-global-trading-order 
  
• beyond-oil-macroeconomic-impact-commodity-supply-disturbances
  

The Socceroos

 I am in two minds about the socceroos. The first match against morocco and the first half on tuesday was haram ball at its best (worst). Part of the second half on the other hand was great. Bos, Irankanda and McGree had an instant impact and we looked good.

Alas there is a large difference between our good players and our dud players.

Herrington shows great promise however the negatives are both Rowles and Mabil are simply too slow for international football. Juric shoed some great touches.

Behich , Degenek, Geria, Okon, Velupullay are all not good enough.

We are okay for goal keepers, fullbacks and cemntrbacks ( if Harry souter is fit). Our midfield looks good as well. We also have two players who may score from freekicks close to the goal.

It is upfront we look soso. Irankanda is more a substitute who makes an impact Boyle has  lost his sharpness since his injury thus it is our weakness. Perhaps Toure will do it?

we have quite a few highly talented youngsters. If we are lucky they will kick on and get better. They need to because we need to be at our best to get through.

Can we not have David Basheer calling our games. He is hopeless. Can we steal some british commentators perhaps even Peter Drury the goat!!

Did Trump attempt to wag the dog

 Yes it is Iran again.

Mark the Graph ( who is required reading ) has a great article on why the war occurred again.

I want to add to that by asserting Trump attempted to wag the dog.

Before he launched an illegal war and no NATO CANNOT participate in an offensive action only a defensive one Trump was in  a a load of trouble :

• Epstein. Trump's action made it appear he was attempting to hide something or a lot of someones
• Inflation His tariff program ( which he clearly has little understanding about) made inflation worse particularly in food and groceries. He favouring of oligopolies and thereby lessening of competition has made this worse.
• Immigration. Latinos in particular are incensed that people who have committed no crimes and are good citizens are being rounded up and sent away.
• Corruption. A  lot of what is going on smells to high heaven. This is only small at present but is  permeating. 
• Unpopularity. He is easily the most unpo;luar president now even eclipsing his first term. 

Now take Trump who is not intelligent but thinks he is and has a low attention span. Venezuela was highly successful and it went to his head. Why not have a small short war against Iran who surrender's early and he gains in the polls.

Even some usual apologists like Laura Ingraham are saying Trump could not understand all the advice he was getting. As I said yesterday Iran are essentially saying no matter what you do to us we can  do things which will hurt the word economy such as reducing oil supplies and other goods  ( like oil refineries in the area) which would guarantee a world recession ( and a massacre in the mid-terms).

It is all looking pear shaped for Trump and unfortunately for the world.