Around the Traps 3/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ryan Heath on oh-theres-a-gap-in-the-analysis-of-pauline-activity Thanks nick
• Kos Samaras on at-the-press-club-the-real-world Thanks nick
• Matteo Vergani et al on new-study-of-2-million-online-posts-shows-persistent-anti-jew-and-anti-muslim-hate-in-australia
• Emily Foley and Bec Strating on coherence-one-nation-would-bulldoze-australian-foreign-policy
• Louisa Jones on how-does-australias-migration-system-actually-work-5-common-myths-busted
• Mark Cully on australia-was-built-on-migration-but-its-long-been-a-love-hate-relationship
• Nicki Hutley on world-economic-crisis-government-response
• Emily Foley on migration-is-dropping-but-public-concern-is-climbing-why
• Patrick Commins on australia-mortgage-burden-above-1989-levels

OZ Climate

• swiss-commodity-trader-gets-approval-to-buy-zen-retail-business-and-ppa-deals-will-it-take-on-big-3
  
• game-changer-for-evs-australian-battery-pioneer-lands-45m-grant-for-silicon-anode-that-boosts-energy-density
  
• households-are-about-to-be-offered-3-hours-of-free-power-who-should-sign-up-and-who-should-think-twice
  
• if-australia-is-serious-about-1-5c-it-needs-to-shut-down-coal-by-2034-and-install-a-lot-more-solar-and-batteries
  
• landmark-deal-to-power-ai-factories-underwrites-much-needed-big-battery-on-australias-most-renewable-grid
  
• australias-abundance-of-renewables-can-power-future-industry-but-we-need-it-resilient-and-we-need-it-fast
  
• solar-sharer-is-here-offering-free-power-to-all-will-it-level-the-playing-field-or-benefit-batteries-most
  
• giant-remote-zinc-mine-aims-to-reach-at-least-80-pct-renewables-with-addition-of-wind-farm-and-big-battery
  
• one-year-on-cheaper-home-batteries-has-changed-the-grid-now-its-time-to-redesign-the-energy-market
  
• one-in-17-australian-homes-now-has-a-solar-battery-as-total-installs-sail-past-450000-at-one-year-mark
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on could-this-be-australias-warmest-winter-ever

Northern America

• Brad De Long on the-casual-destruction-of-usaid , i-am-glad-lisa-cook-rightly-gets-to-keep-her-job-as-federalreserve governor , is-kevin-warsh-as-bad-a-central-banker-as-he-seems-perhaps , what-exactly-is-sven-beckertian-capitalism , trump-surrendered-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-iran-and-emptied-the-shelves-of-americas-arsenal
• noahpinion on the-democrats-have-their-own-maga , stop-screeching-about-immigration-and-get-smart-about-it
• Kruggers on corruption-for-make-benefit-glorious-family-of-trump , the-court-sides-with-dictatorship , a-verdict-on-the-slaughter , there-are-very-few-socialists-in-america
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-slaughter-cook-unitary-executive , supreme-court-watson-rnc-absentee-ballots-barrett-alito , supreme-court-birthright-citizenship-trump-barbara
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-john-roberts-autocracy , supreme-court-birthright-citizenship-scandal-brett-kavanaugh
• Richard Hasen on supreme-court-roberts-barrett-bonkers-voting-case
• Charlie Warzel on reflecting-pool-america-250-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-power-agencies-slaughter-supreme-court
• David Graham on vance-watergate-news-cycle-comments
• Ruth Marcus on the-supreme-courts-check-on-trumps-power-was-too-close-for-comfort
• Tanvi Misra on the-unraveling-of-afghan-asylum
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on brett-kavanaugh-trump-attack-birthright-citizenship-fail
• Maria Glover on supreme-court-trump-cases-power
• Fred Kaplan on donald-trump-spy-list-russia-china-cia
• Anne Applebaum on america-250-july-4-idea
• Ruth Marcus on the-supreme-courts-check-on-trumps-power-was-too-close-for-comfort
• Lisa Needham on birthright-citizenship-ruling
• new deal democrat on june-employment-report-weakly-positive-headlines-and-important-negatives-in-hours-and-payrolls
• the conversable economist on us-exports-imports-and-tariffs-the-250-year-perspective

Europe

• Felix Martin on uks-back-to-front-net-zero-plan-requires-revamp Thanks nick
• noahpinion on europes-resistance-to-ac-is-driving-it-insane
• Rob Mainwaring and Emily Foley on andy-burnhams-meteoric-rise-tells-us-much-about-how-politics-and-power-are-changing
• mainly macro on sowing-seeds-of-uk-revival
• Cory Alpert on ukraine-stopped-waiting-for-the-war-to-end 
• Claire Young on russia-s-antarctic-posture-provokes-but-don-t-invoke

Asia

• the abrahamic metacritique on a metacritique of palestine  Thanks nick
• Jennifer Parker on despite-its-best-efforts-iran-wont-be-able-to-toll-the-strait-of-hormuz-heres-why
• Shannon Bosch on a-un-report-details-the-overwhelming-scale-of-children-killed-in-gaza-it-raises-grave-legal-questions
• Christopher Watterson on international-efforts-to-end-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-program-have-failed-heres-what-comes-next
• Abhijnan Rej on why-india-s-roach-revolt-fizzled-out
• Lyne O'Donnell on five-years-after-returning-to-power-the-taliban-face-less-isolation-than-ever
• Jennifer Hsu on the-world-cup-china-is-winning-off-the-pitch

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-ever-lovely-and-the-oil-contango
• Luke Hartigan on central-bank-gold-holdings-are-at-a-50-year-high-whats-behind-the-jump-in-reserves
• Venkat Raman on the-new-political-logic-of-global-tech-and-trade
• Brad De Long on semi-crosspost-enzo-traverso-the-centiries-of-hobsbawn
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , update on the iran war 
• Alan Gamlen on what-is-migration-for-how-national-needs-wrestle-with-a-basic-human-desire
• Alicia Herrero on washington-and-beijing-cut-a-trade-deal-europe-picks-up-the-tab
• noahpinion on will-ai-make-companies-outsource-more-or-less
• the conversable economist on where-will-the-jobs-come-from-in-developing-economies , interview-with-mervyn-king-all-things-monetary-policy
• Eric Schliesser on on-humphreys-opacity-reverse-engineering-and-social-externalities-of-llms
• Mathew Ricketson and Andrew Dodd on how-the-murdoch-medias-loyalty-to-israel-births-hypocrisy-attacks-and-failed-journalism
• Katie Atwell on we-cant-entirely-blame-covid-vaccine-mandates-for-lower-vaccination-rates-today-its-not-that-simple

General

• Andrew Baker on we-checked-2000-museum-specimens-and-discovered-a-tiny-new-ferocious-australian-mammal
• Paul Giles on guide-to-the-classics-john-steinbecks-east-of-eden-has-always-been-controversial
• Md Ahmad on what-makes-a-star-a-star-a-strange-in-between-celestial-object-is-testing-astronomers-boundaries

Climate

• Larelle Bossi on global-ocean-protection-is-no-simple-equation
• skeptical science on new_research , ClimateAdam-is-climate-change-ramping-up-el-nino-risks
• open mind on not-just-another-summer , central-england-temperature , new_research
• Vito Burtardo on a-severe-el-nino-could-threaten-something-essential-to-half-of-humanity-rice
• ocean acidification on climate-change-and-aquatic-ecosystems-impacts-on-salinity-species-survival-and-ecological-resilience , entering-the-era-of-directly-supporting-society-with-observation-based-ocean-acidification-data
• John Quiggin on the-state-of-nuclear-power-in-2026
• Mathew England et al on the-worlds-oceans-are-the-hottest-on-record-for-june-and-el-nino-is-set-to-turn-up-the-heat-even-more

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• bayesian-workflow-exists-as-a-physical-book
  
• cheapskate-evolutionary-biologist-underpays-his-statistical-help 
  
• ok-i-guess-lawrence-krauss-didnt-follow-his-brothers-advice 
  
• survey-statistics-big-changes-in-the-times-siena-poll
  
• the-optimizers-curse
  
•  whos-getting-the-big-money-donations-in-the-maine-u-s-senate-race
• the-high-cost-of-split-r-hat
  
• Tim Harford on the-surprising-power-of-simple-predictions
• Kaiser Fung on key-decisions-when-making-heatmaps

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• David Zetland on our-man-in-havana
• Constance Grady on great-american-novel-250-moby-dick-huck-finn-beloved
• stoat on book-review-rise-of-western-world
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• chinas-accession-wto-increased-pollution-coal-powerplants-not-exporters-or-their 
  
• ai-productivity-and-work-evidence-us-firms 
  
• when-trust-official-statistics-declines
  
• hedging-interest-rate-risk-when-it-matters-evidence-italian-banks 
  
• exchange-rate-communication-practice-evidence-two-decades-ecb-press-conferences 
  
• chatgpts-financial-advice-supply-demand-and-life-cycle
  
• monetary-policy-under-multiple-financing-constraints
  
• research-value-added-elite-economics-phd-programmes
  
• living-ghost-town-geography-depopulation-and-ageing
  
• price-delay-how-supply-chain-disruptions-spread-consumer-prices
  

The US Supreme court is corrupt

 The US supreme court made up some law to declare immunity for Donald Trump. No-one but no-one thought they would ream up some rubbish.

They have now upheld the 14th amendment which is very clearly stated but 4 justices want to argue black is white. It is a disgrace.

See:

• Ian Millhiser
• Mark Stern

The World Cup

 we are about halfway through the world cup and it has to be said the increase in teams has not led to blowouts very much. Cape Verde actually got through to the group of 32.

I do not understand why games are played during the day given the USA, Canada and Mexico are in summer.

My only beef is some of the UK's great commentators are calling the games. The incomparable Peter Drury is thank the lord and so is Martin Tyler ( time to retire I think) but some of those we are used to viewing the EPL are not.

Just on that when is SBS going to replace David Basheer ( and luke wiltshire). both are poor and almost ruin a socceroos game.

I think we can best Egypt but France look good to win the cup. They were awesome against Sweden

Ukraine update

 I wrote previously that russia cannot win this war and I stand by it. (If you are interested in this war can I recommend Ben hodges on youtube amongst others)

Ukraine have learned lessons when they failed. they are innovative and the leaders in the world at using drones.

Crimea has very little oil, ammunition, supplies etc. Only the military can get petrol. People are leaving there in droves and few russians are taking their summer holiday there. Putin has to divert resources there from other places which weakens those places and in reality does do much for crimea.

Russia is struggling to replace dead and wounded soldiers and even then ukrainian drones are stopping supplies getting to them.

Ukraine is winning back territory in net terms, That is they are gaining more than they lose.

some people are saying Putin is not getting the truth from his generals. I don't buy that. There is enough information around to know the war is going bad.

however he has no choice to battle on ( pun intended) and hope russia somehow winds. Given how much Ukraine is disabling russia's oil industry this hope is moot.

If the west give Ukraine the aid they need they will defeat russia. Will they?

a few different things

 socceroos

We play egypt at 4 am on saturday morning and I am confident. I would have Geria at right back and Boc at left back as Behich won't contain Salah. I would start with volpato and yengi and finish with irankandu and toure.

US politics

Goldman lost his primary. given he was one of the more impressive democrats in congress this is very perplexing to me.

the reflecting poll is green when it is supposed to be blue. Well give the jo0b to someone who has no experience and have no tender why is anyone surprised.

Regime change is one hellva a book. quite revealing.

Karl Stefanovic

He has discovered where the money is. Angry old white men like to spend money to hear about how they are being done by governments. they certainly do not like non-white immigration but they never have in history but do not say that is racist

Ben Stokes

Whoa how could I forget Stokes has announced his retirement. I must admit I thought he would do it after the Ashes. England will miss him for he was bowling as well as ever, his batting had slipped and he was a good captain. the ashes wil lbe different without him.

Around the Traps 26/6/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kos Samaras on the-quiet-australians-who-actually-empty-the-bins Thanks Nick
• David Kilcullen on iran-just-outlasted-the-worlds-most-powerful-military-what-can-australia-learn-from-its-strategies
• David Vallance on lowy-poll-2026-australia-s-nuclear-taboo-is-under-scrutiny
• Ken Henry on risk innovation and CGT design Thanks Nick
• Greg Jericho on capital-gains-tax-changes-auction-prices-results-wealth-inequality
• Isaac Gross on underlying-inflation-is-still-too-high-keeping-another-interest-rate-hike-on-the-table
• Benjamin Jones on fact-checking-is-good-journalistic-practice-but-it-will-do-nothing-to-stop-the-rise-of-pauline-hanson
• Emily Foley and Bec Strating on coherence-one-nation-would-bulldoze-australian-foreign-policy
• Kevin Bonham on hungry-lies-one-nations-food-security-fibs

OZ climate

• burning-forest-waste-to-make-cement-is-poor-climate-policy-poor-environmental-policy-and-bad-economics
  
• the-grid-is-changing-so-quickly-can-the-rules-and-regulations-that-protect-consumers-keep-up
  
• electrifying-australia-the-nine-major-problems-facing-households-and-businesses-and-where-to-from-here
  
• big-batteries-caught-short-as-worst-wind-drought-in-two-years-sends-prices-through-the-roof
  
• banger-of-a-highlight-home-batteries-flatten-solar-duck-pave-way-for-coal-exit-in-australias-biggest-isolated-grid
  
• households-lead-march-to-least-cost-electricity-as-aemo-issues-call-to-arms-on-renewable-transition
  
• big-shortfall-in-wind-will-put-australias-2030-renewable-target-out-of-reach-aemo-says-in-latest-blueprint
  
• nsw-coalition-proposes-to-dump-biggest-rez-and-create-city-zones-instead-ending-bipartisan-support
  
• more-storage-is-vital-but-theres-a-much-cheaper-and-easier-way-to-manage-winter-demand-and-wind-droughts
  
• 
  

Northern America

• Yoni Applebaum on american-history-common-narrative Thanks Nick
• Nathan Cofnas on twilight-of-the-liberal-jew Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-1776
• noahpinion on pizza-wheels-are-bad-japanese-toilets-are-great
• Kruggers on will-surrendering-to-iran-relieve-trumps-gas-pains , the-chips-are-down , why-does-everyone-hate-ai
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-border-agents
• David Remnick on chronicle-of-a-disaster-foretold 
• John Cassidy on who-is-the-real-kevin-warsh
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-paid-sick-leave
• Simon Bowmaker and Paul Wachtel on how-alan-greenspans-stint-as-president-fords-top-economic-adviser-cemented-his-passion-for-public-service-and-prepared-him-to-lead-the-fed
• Fred Kaplan on trump-news-iran-talks-progress-jd-vance-media
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-myths-kavanaugh-john-roberts-barrett-fail , supreme-courts-second-amendment-alito-guns-deranged
• Jeet Heer on bari-weiss-trita-parsi-free-press
• Uneasy Money on the-monumental-dishonesty-and-appalling-bad-faith-of-chief-justice-robertss-decision
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mullin-doe-miot-syria-haiti-tps
• Tom Nicholls on trump-250-usa-speech

Europe

• Ben Wellings on andy-burnham-is-known-as-the-king-of-the-north-could-he-become-the-uks-next-prime-minister
• Ken Harbaugh on underground-intelligence-network-russia-ukraine
• Nicholas Dickinson on keir-starmer-resigns-can-anyone-survive-as-prime-minister-in-todays-britain
• Rohan McWilliam on the-mistakes-that-sealed-keir-starmers-fate
• Mathew Flinders on the-mistakes-that-sealed-keir-starmers-fate
• Chris Dillow on lessons-of-brexit
• Michael Schmitt on attack-kyiv-monastery-caves-loac
• Ishaan Tharoor on how-bad-an-idea-was-brexit

Asia

• Robert Manne on hannah-arendt-and-the-creation-of-israel Thanks Nick
• Adam Tooze on wasting chinas solar surplus is madness thanks Nick
• Vincent So on china-and-the-sleeping-giant-theory-of-american-power
• noahpinion on what-defines-japans-national-identity , china-is-winning-the-other-tech-race
• Martin Kear on with-iran-and-the-us-signing-a-peace-deal-where-does-that-leave-benjamin-netanyahu
• David Leitch on thousands-of-wind-turbines-electric-coal-trucks-transmission-lines-everywhere-a-week-in-north-west-china
• Oliver Holmes on israel-deliberately-targeting-gaza-children-to-commit-genocide-un-inquiry-finds
• Sunaina Kumar on growing-economy-shrinking-job-prospects-india-s-prosperity-paradox

Wonk

• institutional economics on consumers-voters-and-inflation 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-ada-palmer-i-am-a-huge-machiavelli , paul-kedrosky-presents-us-with-the-ECI
• Kruggers on arindrajit-dube-on-wages , technology-capital-and-skills
• the conversable economist on slow-growth-mexico-edition
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update
• mainly macro on why-governments-are-not-in-hock-to-the-bond-market
• John Quiggin on ai-electricity-use-a-lot-or-a-little
• Tim Johnson and Craig O'Neill on why-was-the-early-earth-so-hot-the-heat-wasnt-just-coming-from-the-inside
• 
  

General

• Shane Pill on park-the-bus-the-false-nine-and-total-football-what-do-soccers-strange-phrases-mean

Climate

• open mind on earths-energy-imbalance , earths-energy-imbalance-a-few-notes-on-the-last-post 
• skeptical science on merchants-doubt-extreme-event-attribution
• Andrew Watkins on europe-is-battling-a-record-breaking-heatwave-whats-making-it-so-severe

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• gray-davis-grover-norquist-and-a-rabbi-walk-into-a-conference-and-get-no-press-coverage 
  
• a-tool-for-learning-about-fourier-transforms
  
• online-haters-in-the-low-budget-literary-biz
  
• one-star-is-p-0-20-two-stars-is-a-set-of-steak-knives-three-stars-is-youre-fired
  
• mind-body-healing-an-exchange
  
• survey-statistics-perfect-collinearity-in-the-sample-but-not-in-the-population
  
• to-select-or-not-to-select
  
•  howard-lutnick-gives-top-cantor-fitzgerald-jobs-to-his-sons-brandon-and-kyle-is-a-very-clean-example-of-meritocracy 
• treating-ai-review-like-the-contentious-policy-design-problem-it-is
  
• getting-justice-can-require-a-lot-of-effort-and-usually-at-some-point-well-just-give-up-which-is-what-the-cheaters-rely-on 
  
• structural-equation-modeling-sem-and-positive-definiteness
  
• dont-alphabetize
  
• springer-nature-has-removed-two-studies-by-max-planck
  
• Kaiser Fung on making-sense-of-long-data-sequences , hypnotized-by-seasonlity

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-free-press-summer-reading-list , the-migrants-a-memoir-with-manuscripts , what-ive-been-reading , cricket-and-the-railways
• Greg Mankiw on what-ive-been-reading
• institutional economics on my-review-of-the-age-of-turbulence

Vox Wonk

• when-travel-restrictions-became-trade-frictions-evidence-covid-era-border-closures 
  
• electing-women-does-not-reduce-corruption-evidence-brazil 
  
• writing-code-versus-shipping-code-productivity-effects-across-generations-ai-coding
  
• independent-central-banks-take-more-risk-not-less 
  
• europes-ungoverned-space-military-ai-and-autonomy-cannot-be-bought
  
• one-office-day-month-boosts-remote-team-performance 
  
• china-shock-20-and-euro-area-cheaper-imports-tougher-competition
  
• regulating-platform-work-where-informality-matters-chilean-case
  
• when-central-banks-over-deliver-markets-listen-differently 
  
• impact-global-versus-regional-energy-shocks-eu
  

Another rate rise looks likely

 The CPI came out yesterday. although the headline figure fell the Trimmed mean figure rose.

Thus I agree with Isaac Gross.  So I feel the RBA will have no choice but to raise rates after the next CPI figures when the RBA then sees what the quarterly figures are.

The price pressures are home grown.