poco

 

Around the Traps 13/3/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on the-australian-economy-q4-2025 , austraias-savings-problem-and-the-current-account-deficit
• John Blaxland on australia-cant-easily-reduce-its-military-dependence-on-the-us-but-with-canada-we-can-mitigate-risk
• Hangga Fathana on australia-s-iran-reflex-credibility-test-southeast-asia
• Peter Draper and Nathan Gray on as-global-trade-rules-falter-how-can-australia-protect-itself-from-economic-coercion
• Hugh White on aukus-is-binding-australia-to-a-dangerous-unpredictable-leader-we-need-a-plan-b-now
• Locky Liu et al on amid-a-surge-in-energy-prices-a-windfall-tax-on-gas-profits-could-be-the-best-way-to-protect-households
• Catherine Ordway and Lelia Khanjanineejad on australia-has-granted-some-iranian-soccer-players-asylum-but-2-questions-remain
• Mick Ryan on formula-one-lessons-australian-defence-force
• Christopher Wright on coal-australia-canada-s-next-middle-power-energy-play
• Antony Green on where-are-they-now-the-fate-of-seats-held-by-former-liberal-leaders
• Greg Jericho on labor-government-house-prices-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-budget
• Patrick Commins on capital-gains-tax-discount-overwhelmingly-benefits-investors-in-australias-richest-electorates-analysis-shows
• Tom McIlroy on canavan-might-help-the-nationals-hold-off-one-nation-but-the-coalitions-fight-against-labor-just-got-much-harder
• Keiran Hardy and Rebecca Wickers on we-cant-coerce-our-way-to-social-cohesion-heres-what-else-governments-should-be-doing
• Vincent So on nuclear-power-australia-s-missing-sovereign-capability

OZ Climate

• how-australia-can-avoid-the-economic-fallout-of-trumps-war-in-the-middle-east
  
• solar-farms-hit-by-cuts-to-grid-output-ratings-due-to-changes-in-energy-flows-but-some-big-batteries-are-happy
  
• snail-trails-and-uncertainty-australias-emissions-are-not-falling-fast-enough
  
• fortescue-forges-ahead-on-pilbara-real-zero-plan-with-construction-of-states-biggest-solar-farm
  
• new-modelling-shows-renewable-electricity-can-meet-nz-future-demand-without-importing-gas
  
• co-ownership-vs-consultation-landmark-report-proposes-faster-cheaper-paths-to-renewables
  
• nsw-planning-minister-shuts-down-legal-challenge-for-three-wind-projects-sent-to-ipc
  
• queenslands-prepare-and-repair-disaster-economy-brought-to-you-by-coal-and-climate-change
  
• co-ownership-vs-consultation-landmark-report-proposes-faster-cheaper-paths-to-renewables
  
• electricity-bills-to-fall-in-state-where-renewables-make-up-nearly-half-of-generation-mix
  
• bowen-allows-dirty-fuel-into-market-to-address-petrol-bowser-shortfalls-and-concerns-of-record-high-prices
  
• why-does-an-energy-superpower-like-australia-still-depend-on-global-fossil-fuels
  
• Adam Morton on if-there-was-ever-a-moment-for-australias-shift-to-renewables-and-evs-this-is-it , australian-governments-subsidising-fossil-fuel-use-by-more-than-30000-a-minute-analysis-finds

Northern America

• Ian Philbrick on february-jobs-report-trump-economy
• noahpinion on something-feels-weird-about-this-economy , san-franciscos-urban-revival-is-in-danger
• the conversable economist on the-us-demographic-transition-expected-and-unexpected-effects , the-marketplace-exchanges-for-health-insurance , canadas-economic-challenges
• Adam Serwer on cynical-gullible-american-man
• Jeffrey Goldberg on signalgate-consequences-national-security
• Jonathan Blitzer on kristi-noems-fireable-offenses
• Robin Wright on where-is-the-iran-war-headed
• new deal democrat on how-4-gallon-gas-could-take-the-economy-from-a-nearly-complete-stall-into-outright-recession , the-gold-standard-qcew-for-last-q3-strongly-suggests-no-job-growth-whatsoever-in-2025
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-school-bombing-missile-strike-tomahawk
• Kruggers on the-plot-against-intelligence-human-and-artificial , the-billionaires-war
• Jeet Heer on trump-iran-religious-war-crusades
• Drezners world on im-sick-and-tired-of-all-the-winning Thanks Brad
• Jeff McCausland on pete-hegseth-iran-war-video-game-movies
• Jonathan Lemiere on trump-iran-gas-prices-economy
• David Cole on the-lie-of-preventive-war
• Ruby Cramer on shot-by-border-patrol-then-called-a-domestic-terrorist
• Richard Haas on epic-folly
• Zack Beauchamp on iran-war-white-house-video-game-propaganda

Europe

• Waleed Shahid on the-socialist-mayors-of-madrid-and-barcelona
• Mark Edele on russia-wanted-a-new-world-order-this-wasnt-the-one-it-had-in-mind
• James Horncastle on how-the-u-s-israel-attack-on-iran-helps-russia-in-its-war-against-ukraine
• Chris Dillow on wanted-a-new-blair

Asia

• Jennifer Parker on the-us-sank-an-iranian-warship-and-didnt-rescue-the-survivors-is-this-legal-in-war 
• Amin Naeni on irans-regime-has-shut-down-the-internet-in-the-middle-of-war-placing-civilians-in-the-crosshairs
• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-s-nuclear-ambitions-are-here-stay
• Mehmet Ozalp on who-is-mojtaba-khamenei-irans-presumed-next-supreme-leader-and-would-he-bring-change-or-more-brutal-suppression
• Mathew Powell on iran-conflict-air-campaigns-rarely-work-as-intended-they-often-make-matters-worse
• Joshua Keating on kurds-iran-trump-komala
• Nischal Dhungel on china-s-surplus-western-rules-are-strangling-asian-industry
• Nory Ly on cambodia-s-blue-economy-problem
• Farah Jan on iraq-wars-aftermath-was-a-disaster-for-the-us-the-iran-war-is-headed-in-the-same-direction
• Mika  Pasco and Ji-In Baek on closest-comrade-bromance-underpinning-north-korea-s-alliance-russia
• Sara Herschander on help-iran-war-humanitarian-aid
• Arang Keshavarzarian on iran-transformed
• Isaac Chotiner on how-donald-trumps-iran-war-is-destabilizing-the-gulf

Wonk

• ruxandras substack on equality-as-a-consolation-prize Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on the-temptations-of-unfreedom-revisited Thanks Nick 
• fresh economic thinking on finding-the-money Thanks Nick
• conspicuous cognition on how-ai-will-reshape-public-opinion Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on bored-of-peace-war-and-economics
• Andrew Gawthorpe on how-prepared-are-the-us-and-its-allies-for-a-protracted-conflict-in-iran
• Tim Harford on the-tyranny-of-targets
• Kruggers on oil-crises-past-and-possibly-future , dire-strait
• Martie-Louise Verreynne on andrew-leigh-maps-the-drivers-of-historys-big-breakthroughs-and-why-they-still-matter
• Brad De Long on the-permanent-problem-of-the-human-race
• Hernon Rocha on could-the-us-cut-off-trade-with-spain-heres-what-international-law-says
• Pjotr Sauer on how-the-us-israeli-war-in-iran-parallels-russia-invasion-of-ukraine
• Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian on too-valuable-to-burn-chemical-and-plastic-industries-will-rely-on-oil-far-longer-than-motorists
• Alexander Howard on the-iranian-revolution-transformed-global-extremism-replacing-left-wing-radicalism-with-religion
• Tyler Cowen on how-frequent-are-price-bubbles
• noahpinion on are-we-in-the-foothills-of-world-war-3
• the conversable economist on who-is-buying-all-the-global-debt

General

• Kevin Kelly on how-will-the-miracle-happen-today Thanks Nick
• Erik Meijaard et al on meet-tous-an-entirely-new-genus-of-mammal-we-identified-heres-why-its-so-exciting

Climate

• ocean acidification on glacial-meltwater-impacts-marine-carbonate-chemistry-on-icelands-continental-shelf , the-ocean-as-system
• open mind on global-warming-has-accelerated , cold-winter-hot-winter
• Umair Irfan on ocean-marine-climate-co2-carbon-removal-acidification
• Gabriel Da Silva on what-is-the-acid-rain-in-the-wake-of-us-bombings-in-iran-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains
• real climate on how-robust-is-our-accelerometer
• Jonathan Watts on extreme-heat-study-global-warming-physical-activity
• moyhu on february-global-surface-templs-up-015
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windshadow , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• bayesian-inferences-and-frequentist-evaluations
  
• authors-of-the-class-lorrie-moore
  
• alienzzzz
  
• cmu-finally-shows-up-in-epstein-files
  
• ted-williams-and-me
  
• sparsenuts-precondition-hierarchical-hmc-sparse-laplace
  
• court-ruling-appropriately-applies-our-research
  
• freakometrics on the narrative CV or how to replace one bias with another
• Kaiser Fung on another-test-of-self-sufficiency , the-emerging-ai-agents-war

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Andrew Gelman on the-idea-of-israel-more-generally-the-idea-of-x-for-different-values-of-x , salinger
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• ray-hope-rise-solar-energy-china 
  
• central-bank-digital-currency-future-money-and-politics 
  
• cross-border-restrictions-age-geopolitical-tensions-what-seven-decades-data-tell-us 
  
• when-neighbours-stop-knocking-hidden-impact-canadas-2025-tourism-decline-us-local 
  
• remote-work-premium-reconsidered
  
• how-generational-turnover-and-party-switching-reshape-us-political-map
  
• what-regional-data-tell-us-about-euro-area-phillips-curve
  
• why-firms-and-job-mobility-matter-immigrant-integration-evidence-mass-arrival-former
  
• repricing-surge-euro-area-what-190-million-consumer-prices-tell-us-about-2021-2024
  
• impact-brexit-foreign-born-workers-uk
  
• earth-heaven-changing-drivers-monetary-policy
  
• role-spending-rigidity-fiscal-adjustment 
  
• firms-predict-ai-productivity-boom-coming
  

USA and other things

 Iran war

We still have incoherent talk about this war. Okay Trump is almost always incoherent, has little intellect and is patently in cognitive decline. Even so you would think the US government would have a consistent policy and everyone singing from the same hymn sheet.  It could well be Trump's fault as he has the concentration of a cocker spaniel and therefore cannot ever deliver a consistent line.

Iran had aging aircraft, a poor navy and limited ballistic missiles and more importantly few place to launch them. Thus assertions Iran was about to attack other countries is utterly absurd more so because the IDF destroyed their defences.

Although the nuclear program was not obliterates as asserted, it was put years per\haps decades behind schedule.

Iy you want to change the regime and you know most of the population wants this you do not go about killing any Iranians.

Any rational person having a war with Iran would have a strategy on how to deal with the strait of hormuz otherwise petrol prices amongst other prices will rise substantially. Trump didn't indeed they told a minesweeper to go back home, duh!

Oh I should have added is Iram more likely or unlikely to promote terrorism against the USA now the USA has killed Iranians and the USA has boasted about it,

Oh Oh I should have also added Steve Witkoff is very incompetent. We know he lied about his meetings with Iranians and now he accepts russian lies they are not helping Iran with intelligence!

Noem sacked

Kristy Noem was always going to be a failure. Her administrative experience was limited and poor. Her political judgment even worse. Immigration was one of trump's best assets. It is now in large negative double digits. Noem would continue to hold press conferences in silly hats way too early and then not apologise when what she said was clearly and utterly wrong.

The problem is the punters never wanted mass deportation because unlike trump or miller most are not racists. Perhaps they realise the negative implication for the economy as well. Clearly they wanted the murders and rapists gone. Only problem was there were only few of the group. With ICE under pressure to arrest certain numbers of 'illegal' immigrants each week. They went to cities where you would not find many and had sweeps which is a lazy and inefficient way to get people. People are not stupid. how come few sweeps in Texas.

Neither Neom, Miller not Trump ever understood this. Noen took the blame.

DOJ

I am staggered that about 8,000 people have either resigned or been sacked in the DOJ. Courts no longer believe them in court. Halligan was found by a magistrate judge to have lied about the law which explains why Comey was  indicted. Pirro caan not even indict a ham sandwich in fact she is lucky to indict anyone! She and Halligan are perfect examples of Trump's DOJ. Loyalty always outweighs competence.

mid-terms

I am convinced more than ever that voters will vote democrats in the mid-terms as they want to put some guard rails on Trump and it won't get better for Trump given his and his government's incompetence.

OZ Politics

 David Littleproud

He resigned yesterday as leader of the National Party. He had only been leader since 2022. He resigned because he was 'buggered'.

Bollocks.  He knew what he was getting into and he was only leader of the Nationals not Opposition leader.

I think he is extremely worried about One Nation and despite having the safest seat in Parliament he wants his 'free' time to campaign in his seat. Remember it is the Nationals who are vulnerable to one nation. He should still win the seat on ALP preferences at worst BUT you never know. He wasn't much of a leader. Leading the Nationals not once but twice from the coalition made him (and the coalition) look unstable  and thus unelectable.

The people who want to be leader are unimpressive. Most have no farming background at all!

We shall see?

Whoopsy  I forgot the obvious explanation. The Nationals lose seats to one nation, their vote drops a lot and he does not get the blame!!

update:

Canavan has won the leadership. I see this as the party seeing Canavan is best to battle against one nation. Only one problem he is a disaster for the coalition in winning back city seats.

Iranian football team

The government gave visa to all players who di not want to go back to Iran. This was sensible. Why they might want to deny other Iranians who have a temporary visa a right to visit Australia has not been explained. Really strange.

Panic buying

wow we panic buy. There are queues ,some country petrol stations have no fuel ( which aint the government's fault. It is private enterprise fellahs) and Bunnings is running out of gerry cans ! There is no supply problem only a  price problem

ISIS Brides

These people are Australian citizens. They should be in Australia. IF they are a threat then charge them and stick them in gaol. I suspect they are not. ISIS fighter were notorious misogynists who almost always made any decisions moreover they were not very bright. Think of it another way how many mothers do you know who would be willing to give up their relationship with their children to attempt to kill anyone?

Hanson and hypocrisy in politics

 Hypocrisy is bi-partisan and quite regular in politics anywhere.

For example in the USA you had veterans criticising Tim Waltz's record as a reservist blithely ignoring Trump made up excuses not to serve.

In Australia we had a flood of criticism about Julia Gillard. Her looks, her clothing , her intellect etc. how come there is little about Pauline Hanson.Let us be blunt. Hanson is not attractive ( euphemism), She is old and looks older. She is inarticulate and she is not very intelligent. Moreover she always has a svengali behind her.

Julie Bishop made on unfortunate slip as shadow treasurer and was dropped. Tim Wilson makes a larger error  about tax and petrol and no-one notices.

Sorry but I can't think of any ALP examples except John Kerin being unlucky as treasurer as well.

Peter Martin

 My old mate Peter Martin has a show on radio National called the economy stupid.

It is a good show. It is good because not only does Peter understand economics he is also a good journalist so he asks the right questions most of the time.

The topics are varied and interesting most of the time. The latest one examined how GDP is measured and what is should measure. The guests were another old mate Nicki Hutley and Dianne Coyle who readers should be aware of.

I have only a short time to write today but this program is only 30 minutes and well worth a listen.

Cream

 Cream was the original super band. Like most they were over-rated.

This is easily the best song they did.