The next administration has a hellva job reforming the DOJ

 The DOJ has been severely degraded un Trump 2.0

 They have lost regularity and have been found to lie before judges and conduct grand juries in an unlawful way. Indeed it would not be uncommon for charged people to ask to see grand jury transcripts or ask that a magistrate judge examine them. Quite clearly the Lindsay Halligan incident was NOT a one-off.

Apparently the DOJ have lost around 10,000 in either sackings or resignations. Things have got so bad the DOJ have to offer financial incentives just to gain new graduates. The quality of people in the DOJ has naturally declined.

I could go on but I have no need to. The AG and DAG in the nest admisitration has a lot to do to get back experienced personnel back to the DOJ and political hacks out of the department. There has to be a concerted push to have people whose primary asset is what they know NOT who they know!

the energy market is changing

 David Leitch has a great article out today. It shows how the wholesale market is changing. ( It also indirectly show how much better we are off by having so much renewable energy. Imagine where prices would be if the climate denialists had their way. just look at europe).

Commercial and household batteries are changing demand and price! 

will One Nation's vote continue right up to the election ?

 A lot of people are talking about the rise of one nation's vote in the polls.

Let us be accurate however . This has mainly come at the expense of the Liberals and Nationals. Thus the question is will those disillusioned voters remain with one nation or eventually go back to the LNP.

Before the rise we could make the wholly generalised statement that one nation voters were not that smart. They like Hansson because she was like them. not very smart and not very eloquent.

However one cannot make that statement of the punters who have gone to one nation recently. I think we can assume a few things. yes they know a lot of one nation's policies are stupid BUT it seems what they do like is the party is firm on their policies even if they are daft and not costed..

Will these people go back to the LNP or stay with one nation. It depends. Certainly thus far one nation is particularly poor when pressed on policies even when they are clearly soft interviews. one can only speculate on what would happen when the interview is not soft. Of course they may not occur.

We should also be cognisant about the poor procedures one nation has for examining candidates and staff. They also indulge in a lot of in-fighting.

I suspect if only a bit of this occurs then the former LNP voters or a  majority of them will return to the fold. Of course as my wife frequently tells me I could be wrong.

the King's honours list

 This is a complete joke. As Nick Gruen said a long time ago these awards are given to most people for simply doing their job. Isn't that why they were paid?

enough said

Around the Traps 5/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Gary Mortimer et al on supermarkets-back-to-the-future
• Kelly Hine et al public-trust-in-australian-police-is-declining-covid-sparked-it-but-theres-more-to-the-story
• Toni Brakin on payday-super-is-coming-on-july-1-workers-will-be-thousands-of-dollars-better-off-long-term 
• Jonathan Barrett on property-prices-budget-negative-gearing-capital-gains-investors
• Saul Eslake on house-prices-falling-australia-sydney-melbourne-good-housing-basic-human-need 
• John Buchanan on almost-3-million-workers-will-get-a-4-75-pay-rise-in-july-but-wages-cant-catch-up-with-inflation
• Albert Palazzo on australia-has-been-the-victim-of-an-aukus-bait-and-switch
• Adrian Westerman on how-flu-overtook-covid-as-australias-deadliest-respiratory-virus 
• Emily Foley et al on hansons-gas-policy-follows-the-far-right-playbook-attack-elites-and-push-for-drilling
• Patrick Commins on one-nation-norway-gas-tax-plan-pauline-hanson 
• Greg Jericho on australia-datacentres-destroying-jobs-climate-economy-gdp
• Stella Huangfu on australias-economy-slows-as-households-tighten-their-belts-while-ai-investment-surges 
• Mark the Graph on q1-2026-gdp-soft-quarter-above-potential-year 
• Dorini Pojani on kerbside-parking-is-great-for-drivers-but-terrible-for-everyone-else-could-we-get-rid-of-it
• Jennifer Parker on aukus-virginia-class-switch-is-a-fix-not-a-failure
• Chris Sidoti on australia-response-to-israel-legal-obligation

OZ Climate

• proposal-for-high-fixed-network-charges-is-wrong-on-home-batteries-dynamic-pricing-and-impact-on-cer 
  
• pogroms-american-style 
  
• australias-spent-billions-on-renewable-gases-with-little-to-show-this-is-how-to-do-it-properly
  
• new-1660-mwh-battery-reaches-full-output-but-it-may-soon-have-a-new-owner 
  
• spot-prices-along-the-journey-to-a-competitively-priced-coal-free-grid-but-we-still-need-a-lot-of-wind 
  
• whats-the-difference-between-a-four-hour-battery-and-an-eight-hour-battery-not-a-lot-it-turns-out 
  
• stop-taxing-the-transition-why-fixed-network-charges-get-consumer-energy-resources-all-wrong
  
• households-still-going-big-on-solar-and-storage-but-new-battery-rebate-settings-calm-red-hot-market 
  
• the-kardashev-scale-australias-staggering-energy-transition-and-its-untapped-opportunity 
  
• what-is-the-value-of-energy-efficiency-and-flexible-demand-a-new-tool-will-help-us-find-out 
  
• ai-giant-choose-australias-first-100-pct-net-renewable-grid-to-build-countrys-biggest-data-centre 
• Graham Readfearn on gas-usage-australia-structural-decline 
• Ben Jefferson on australias-spent-billions-on-renewable-gases-with-little-to-show-this-is-how-to-do-it-properly
• Michael Vardon on how-much-water-and-power-will-ai-data-centres-use-in-australia-ironically-we-dont-have-the-data-to-know

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on canada-imminnent-recession
• noahpinion on america-needs-liberal-nationalism-back , im-kind-of-over-the-whole-anti-monopoly-movement
• Hayes Brown on doj-grand-jury-charges-misconduct
• Brad De Long on when-median-take-home-pay-packets-rise-once-in-a-generation
• Kruggers onlearning-from-a-mentally-ill-president , pogroms-american-style , stop-your-chirping , trump-has-given-up , illegal-tariffs-round-3 , america-the-inessential-nation
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-weaponization-fund-suspended-republicans
• David Frum on bill-pulte-hayek 
• the conversable economist on does-leniency-for-first-offenders-pay-off 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gerrymandering-allen-milligan-alabama-republicans , todd-blanche-attorney-general-trump-goon
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on sonia-sotomayor-exposes-supreme-court-lies 
• Jonathan Chait on trump-superficiality
• Jeet Heer on trump-july-4th-fair-cancellations
• Barbara McQuade on bill-pulte-intelligence-nomination-trump

Europe

• Kruggers on europe-versus-america-a-response  
• Brad De Long on paul-krugman-qui-bono-and , the-viking-raager-further-gels 
• mainly macro on immigration-numbers-and-media
• Chris Dillow on fetishising-fiscal-rules

Asia

• Jared Modschein on is-the-quad-dying-a-slow-death-even-with-trump-it-still-has-a-vital-role-to-play
• Beth Spacey on israeli-forces-capture-lebanons-beaufort-castle-a-crusade-era-site-once-held-by-the-knights-templar
• Hunter Marston on shangri-la-washington-southeast-asia-talked-past-each-other
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-peace-talks-off-what-next
• Asher Kaufman on in-iran-wars-shadow-israels-renewed-lebanon-campaign-risks-repeating-failed-lessons-and-occupations-of-the-past 
• Michele Burgis-Kasthala on is-israel-planning-to-reoccupy-the-gaza-strip-this-is-whats-happening-behind-the-yellow-line 
• Amy Crew on anwar-s-coalition-is-fracturing-and-the-islamist-opposition-is-waiting 
• Piper French on to-break-the-siege-gaza-flotilla 
• Ishaan Tharoor on the-iran-war-and-the-end-of-the-middle-east

Wonk

• autopoesis on on-and-against-agency thanks nick
• Felix Martin on open-source-spectre-haunts-ai-feast thanks nick 
• Alex Crary on philosophy-in-the-time-of-techno-fascism thanks nick 
• institutional economics on immigration-and-living-standards
• Katherine Te on critical-minerals-west-learning-wrong-lesson-china 
• Tim Harford on rage-in-the-age-of-x
• Brad De Long on mike-beggs-zombie-marx-partial-reading, the-transformation-problem-was-not-something-marx-overlooked
• Nicholas Bryan on aukus-sees-the-sea-not-everyone-will
• noahpinion on how-much-more-software-do-we-really-need
• David Peetz on politicians-have-long-misunderstood-the-working-class-the-rise-of-the-far-right-shows-how-mistaken-they-have-been
• Evan Bloom on antarctic-diplomacy-hits-another-iceberg

General

• Russell Bicknell and Julien Kumig on 500-million-year-old-fossil-helps-fill-a-strange-gap-in-our-record-of-life-on-earth 
• Kovi Rose on mysterious-signals-keep-coming-from-space-we-have-found-their-rosetta-stone

Climate

• exponential view on the-rooftop-revolution thanks nick
• real climate on the-arctic-council-is-not-dead
• Sharkar Sharma et al on cities-are-making-it-rain-more-but-not-as-much-as-scientists-thought
• ocean acidification on tropical-cyclones-may-soon-flip-from-releasing-carbon-to-absorbing-it
• Mohammed Rahman on trees-and-greenery-can-cool-cities-by-as-much-as-18-c-but-only-if-theyre-the-right-type
• skeptical science on solar-wind-evs-knocked-out-rcp85
• Timothy Raupach and Steven Sherwood on climate-change-may-shift-hailstorms-towards-earths-poles-new-study
• Katherine Hendy on extreme-weather-is-making-antarctic-research-harder-but-new-technology-is-providing-some-answers-new-study

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 15-new-articles-on-statistical-workflow
  
• rationally-turbulent-expectations
  
• noems-razor-and-why-i-think-the-concept-of-unintended-consequences-is-overrated 
  
• hey-its-more-plausible-than-the-hyperloop-or-the-idea-that-ufos-are-space-aliens 
  
• survey-statistics-it-is-still-the-people 
  
• epidemiologist-donna-spiegelman-sez-sutva-is-mostly-not-necessary-for-valid-causal-estimation-and-inference-most-of-the-time
  
• against-shallow-humanism
  
• old-posts-on-the-monkey-cage-blog
  
• Kaiser Fung on rearranging-deck-chairs

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Alex Tabarrok on 80000-hours-the-book
• Greg Mankiw on what-ive-been-reading
• Tyler Cowen on the-republic-of-love

Vox Wonk

• impact-geopolitical-risk-euro-area-economy-past-experience-and-future-prospects 
  
• literature-support-and-capabilities-autonomous-research-agents 
  
• transatlantic-divide-labours-share-income 
  
• global-minimum-tax-more-winners-losers-even-without-us
  
• europe-suffers-not-so-much-flight-savings-insufficient-allocation-equities 
  
• european-public-goods-european-safe-asset-pragmatic-roadmap 
  
• new-coins-block-digital-currencies-and-financial-system 
  
• what-we-lose-when-women-do-not-get-tenure-evidence-natural-experiment 
  
• cheaper-machines-costlier-buildings-drag-long-run-growth
  
• why-post-pandemic-us-immigration-surge-barely-moved-inflation 
  
• not-all-foreign-exchange-reserves-are-created-alike 
  
• early-takeoff-space-innovation
  

A tale of two wars

 I am going to repeat myself but I think it is worth it.

Ukraine/Russia

Putin invaded Ukraine based on false information. Being a dictator he was told what people thought he wanted to hear. This meant the 'three day 'war was always going to be a failure. Putin also dallied into military decision making which ended in failure because he only has experience in intelligence not the military. He thought using the vast population of russia ( and other countries) would allow victory. Like everyone else he did not foresee Ukraine mastery of drones ( and continued innovation) and learning from its mistakes and continuing to use new and better tactics. Consequently Ukraine is regaining ground and the russians are running out of ammunition, supplies and food particularly in crimea. People are moving away in doves. Putin moves more defensive assets there and Ukraine attack in the holes left.Meanwhile Ukraine successfully attack oil refineries etc that reduces its income.

Russia appears to be in a position of not being able to win anymore BUT Putin battles on in the hope he still can.

USA/Iran

Yet again the USA has been foiled by a nation in a asymmetric war. trump thought this would be a cakewalk after capturing Madura. Although warned of problems they were never said in full voice because like Putin people say to him what they believe he wants to hear. The only way for trump to get the results he spoke of is by boots on the ground BUT that will never happen if only because of the political consequences.

When an ending comes it won't be good for trump.There is the irony. He di this to get a political boost and instead got the opposite!

some TV shows and a film

 First TV

Shetland

This was an excellent show. A police dram set in Shetland. funny how winter never appeared though however once Jimmy left it lost its main character and it simply aint the same. the female replacement is not likable and you end up yearning to see Jimmy again.

Elsbeth

This started out as a quirky crime series with an equally quirky character but it has withered into boring. One problem is she aint attractive but she ends up with not one but two chick magnets over the series. This was simply not believable.

Matlock

This started out well and I like Kathy Bates but I simply have not watched the second series as I am not interested.

now Films

Hostiles

This is a western but a different western. The main character  played brilliantly by Christian Bales has his values changed. Beware it is violent but well worth a view. It is nine years old as a film.