Around the Traps 17/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kimberlee Weatherall on australias-government-has-woken-up-to-the-risks-of-ai-more-ambition-is-needed
• Anam Bilgrami on one-nation-says-photo-id-will-help-stop-medicare-rorts-heres-why-thats-wrong
• Peter Breadon et al on unfair-fees-and-low-competition-why-the-pharmacy-sector-needs-a-shake-up
• Kevin Bonham on demosau-could-hare-clark-help-one-nation-shift-tasmania-to-the-right
• Rita Matulionyte on australia-wants-to-manage-ai-what-will-that-look-like
• Peter Greste on its-the-abcs-job-to-be-accurate-and-fair-not-to-chase-the-dangerous-fallacy-of-balance
• Greg Jericho on one-nation-australian-economy-peoples-bank
• Becky Freeman and Michelle Jongenelis on despite-claims-smoking-has-made-a-comeback-just-5-6-of-australians-now-smoke-daily

OZ Climate

• its-nuts-wind-developer-forced-to-truck-giant-transformer-thousands-of-kilometres-after-port-refusal
  
• states-stand-alone-solar-fail-the-energy-transition-should-deliver-more-than-a-new-landlord
  
• starting-from-scratch-on-nuclear-in-australia-would-take-longer-cost-more-than-first-time-offshore-wind
  
• solar-and-wind-remain-backbone-of-least-cost-future-grid-as-batteries-squeeze-gas-to-a-fraction-of-the-mix
  
• we-cannot-wait-changes-made-to-renewable-tenders-to-ensure-wind-and-solar-projects-actually-get-built
  
• solar-and-wind-remain-backbone-of-least-cost-future-grid-as-batteries-squeeze-gas-to-a-fraction-of-the-mix
  
• coal-closure-plan-urgently-needed-as-unreliable-clunkers-push-power-prices-through-roof
  
• australia-is-running-a-data-deficit-on-evs-and-the-energy-shit-and-everyone-pays-the-price
  
• the-great-gas-disconnect-why-australia-needs-a-managed-exit-strategy-for-stranded-gas-network
• Andrew Watkins on what-happened-to-australias-snow-season-a-climate-expert-explains
• Graham Readfearn on coalition-and-one-nations-plan-to-ditch-net-zero-would-not-lower-power-prices-csiro-report-finds
• Mehdi Sayedmahmdian on the-data-centre-boom-wont-mean-higher-power-prices-if-we-unlock-stalled-renewable-projects

Northern America

• institutional economics on can-us-exceptionalism-survive-demographic-decline 
• Samuel Rubinstein on jd-vances-convenient-catholicism Thanks Nick
• Andrew Kemp on an-australian-perspective-on-the-fourth-of-july Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on magas-attack-on-science-is-even-worse-than-it-looks , i-have-never-been-working-class , the-american-suburbs-are-better-than-you-think , why-i-didnt-sign-the-we-must-act-now
• Kruggers on ai-in-an-age-of-oligarchy , suddenly-hormuz-is-less-crucial-than-it-was , the-forever-war-gets-scary , democracy-in-an-age-of-powermaxxing
• Menzie Chinn on the-sustainability-of-ai-investment , ppi-and-cpi-again
• Benji Sarlin on lindsey-graham-dead-donald-trump-legacy-senate-ukraine
• Anne Applebaum on lindsey-graham
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-voting-tariffs-trump-shameless
• John Cassidy on donald-trumps-needless-war-with-iran-is-his-biggest-economic-blunder
• Brad De Long on crosspost-claudia-sahm-what-will-it-take-for-the-fed-to-hike
• David Rhode et al  on trump-classified-intelligence-midterm-elections-2026
• Hady Mawajdeh and Sean Rameswaram on ice-killing-houston-araujo
• Adam Serwer on the-see-no-evil-supreme-court
• Alexis Romero on supreme-court-justices-senate-barrett-kagan-ethics
• new deal democrat on june-cpi-never-look-a-gift-horse-in-the-mouth
• Liz Dye on todd-blanche-confirmation-hearing
• Greg Barton on backed-into-a-corner-by-iran-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-trump-may-resort-to-even-more-reckless-escalation
• Andrew Prokop on israel-democrats-polling-gaza-genocide
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-testosterone-testing-military
• the conversable economist on how-much-does-federal-rd-pay-off
• Tom Dannenbaum and Eliav Lieblich on international-law-response-rubio-icc

Europe

• Cory Alpert on the-alliance-trump-built-trying-to-break-it
• mainly macro on how-right-wing-populism-came-easily-to-the-conservative-party

Asia

• Jessica Genauer on despite-trumps-wishes-iran-is-dragging-the-us-into-a-long-war
• Rodger Shanahan on how-an-assassination-by-trump-and-netanyahu-became-a-victory-for-their-enemy
• Gabriela Bernal on behind-pyongyang-s-boom
• Muhammed Rizwan on afghanistan-s-exportable-threat
• Andrew Prokop on trump-strait-hormuz-guardian-fees-iran
• Amin Saikal on the-us-and-iran-are-back-at-war-and-with-one-main-sticking-point-theres-no-end-in-sight
• home and away on special-edition-a-strategy-for-iran
• Henry Storey on can-china-create-the-next-apple-or-nvidia

Wonk

• Felix Martin on good-bad-ugly-ais-economic-impact Thanks Nick
• David Dayen on great-ai-repricing-isnt-going-well Thanks Nick
• Martha Nussbaum on the-professor-of-parody Thanks Nick
• Pete Buttegieg on a-terrible-thing-happened-to-my-family Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on five-facts-about-the-uncovered-interest-parity-premium , kim-ruhl-rethinking-free-trade
• Alexander Howard on friday-essay-cultural-marxism-is-a-conspiracy-theory-for-our-time
• Christopher Pollard on antonio-gramsci-his-philosophy-explained
• Tyler Cowen on progress-against-dementia , markets-are-competitive-if-and-only-if-p-np
• Brad De Long on crosspost-art-goldhammer-the-unbearable-vacuity-of-the-moment
• Marina Zhang on when-tech-giants-exercise-state-power
• David Nellor on ai-regulation-answers-the-wrong-question
• Shannon Brincat on the-trump-administration-wants-to-dismantle-the-international-criminal-court-can-it
• Abhinandan Kumar on at-the-world-cup-as-in-life-football-nationalises-success-and-ethnicises-failure
• Sarah Diepstraten and John La Marca on no-evidence-mobile-phones-cause-brain-cancer-new-study
• David Pritchard on how-controlling-and-tolling-a-narrow-waterway-near-ancient-troy-changed-history

General

• Anne-Sophie Levidis on what-the-annales-taught-me-at-the-kitchen-table Thanks Nick
• Bikesh Upreti et al on var-was-supposed-to-take-the-messy-human-element-out-of-refereeing-how-did-it-go-so-wrong
• Daryl Sparkes on remembering-the-quiet-genius-of-sam-neill
• Philip Almond on philistine-is-a-byword-for-boorish-ignorance-but-the-real-philistines-were-cultured-who-were-they
• Greta Hawes and R Scott Smith on the-odyssey-is-set-in-a-fantasy-world-but-the-ancient-greeks-mapped-it-onto-what-they-knew
• Anthony Macris on ive-been-reading-the-odyssey-my-whole-life-nolans-film-version-is-exhilarating-but-not-perfect

Climate

• David Appell on short-but-moving 
• ocean acidification on the-effects-of-single-and-multiple-climate-driven-stressors-exposures-on-the-seagrass-posidonia-oceanica-phenological-cellular-and-genetic-adaptations , climate-change-and-ocean-acidification-outweigh-local-stressors-in-mediterranean-mussels-a-multi-method-convergence-analysis
• Tim Harford on how-did-air-conditioning-become-a-heated-debate
• stochastic trend on long-run-benefits-of-electrification
• Kit Prendergast on big-bees-have-the-most-to-lose-as-global-co-levels-rise-new-research
• skeptical science on deadly-france-heatwave-future-risk , home-batteries-next-must-have
• open mind on historys-hottest-heat-n-hemisphere-extratropics-edition

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-bad-science-from-jama
  
• archaeology-cant-give-social-scientists-population-or-gdp-but-here-are-some-things-we-can-measure-that-might-be-useful-for-social-science
  
• archaeology-cant-give-social-scientists-population-or-gdp-but-here-are-some-things-we-can-measure-that-might-be-useful-for-social-science
  
• interesting-statistical-example-of-flaws-in-a-voter-impact-index
  
• making-statistics-work-information-theory-and-bayesian-inference 
  
• survey-statistics-quantifying-uncertainty-in-ranked-choice-voting-polls
  
• a-ranked-choice-election-in-maine-using-voting-data-to-understand-preferences
  
• reviews-of-our-bayesian-workflow-book-from-bin-yu-david-spiegelhalter-brad-efron-christian-robert-and-rohan-alexander
  
• Kaiser Fung on drowning-in-colors

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• trapped-home-climate-stress-more-likely-immobilise-poor-move-them 
  
• innovation-without-borders 
  
• ned-phelps-and-modern-macroeconomics
  
• how-large-current-account-imbalances-unwind-evidence-historical-adjustment-episodes 
  
• climate-fairness-economic-development-and-europes-responsibility 
  
• macroeconomic-impact-recovery-and-resilience-facility-analysis-italy-spain-and-greece
  
• opening-black-box-europes-new-fiscal-rules 
  
• harmonising-access-and-reinventing-procurement-innovative-medicines-europe 
  
• higher-utilisation-explains-recent-surge-productivity-growth 
  
• after-credit-suisse-markets-find-bail-less-credible
  

It is Spain V Argentina

 The semi-finals are over and we know who the finalists are. Spain will start favourites. They have conceded only one goal, whilst they stated slow they have gotten better with each game and they know how to control the ball.

Whilst spain were very good against france we should acknowledge france were poor. It seemed they were unaware ( like when they played paraguay) of the tactics spain would use. everybody else knew. His substitutions made little sense. The left back was bad and should not have been selected.

argentine deservedly won the other semi-final. england had one chance and scored. argentina had plenty and hit the post twice! The english substitutions made little sense.He brought on defenders when up only 1-0. Strangle the defence got worse. Also despite an immense advantage in height argentina always looked dangerous when a cross came over and consequently won because of a messi cross. England's crosses were poor.

I favour Spain. Unlike england they can control the game if they score. Their defence is the best in the competition and they can attack quickly. Lastly Messi looks quite tired which is understandable given his age and the heat.

bring on monday morning ( 5am)

The strait of hormuz

 This will be very short.

You will not get any ships going through the strait until they get insurance. NO insurance company will write a policy at present because of uncertainty the the very high risks involved.

Thus the present imbroglio is helping Iran not the USA.

The USA

 Minnesota

I read the governor had pardoned a child rapist and said to myself what the hell is going on. I then found out the victim asked Waltz to pardon him. This was vital information yet it was missing. Why? So-called conservatives thought it irrelevant to the story showing they are not journalists but poor propogandists. Poor because once it was known they would be seen for what they are.

Iran

Trump is now planning to charge a toll on any ship using the strait of hormuz. Strange but when Iran threatened this people pointed out it was illegal. The more I think about it the more I cannot see a solution to the war Trump declared.

How many patriot and tomahawk missiles have been wasted on Iran? Iran was never a threat to any country. Those missiles could have been used well by Ukraine

Lindsay Graham

He died from a heart attack on the weekend. his great claim was on foreign policy yet he was very poor on this. He fervently supported the war on Iraq despite Iraq not being a threat to anyone. He wanted Trump to invade Iran! that was nuts. At least he was right on Ukraine but even here he was impotent. His very last journey was to Ukraine. The Whitehouse was still saying russia held all the cards and was advancing on all fronts.  The white house believed russian disinformation rather than the facts on the ground.

ICE

ICE has killed yet another person and blatantly lied about it. They repeat the same lie after they kill some-one. The white house seem oblivious to polls showing how deeply unpopular this policy is. It is the single issue that has completely changed the 'latino' vote.

The similarities of Platner and Farage ( and Le Pen?)

 For those living on another planet Graham Platner recently resigned as the democratic  senate candidate for Maine. Nigel Farage resigned his seat for election but will re-contest it where his main opponent is count binface! Marie Le Pen will contest the French presidency but with an ankle bracelet!

Platner had a nazi tattoo for which he had no intelligent explanation for. Surely amber lights were flashing. then we had secting scandals and finally we had him accused of rape which was the final straw.

Farage has so many allegations of corruption I will outsource it.

Le Pen also has problems with corruption.

Both Platner and Farage pleaded innocent of all charges BUT said it was all the work of the 'ESTABLISHMENT'.

Both Farage and Le Pen wanted the voters to make decisions on their charges not courts or parliamentary committees specifically designed for such work.

Both Platner and Farage have been found out . When the heat was on then they had no satisfactory explanations and lashed out.

Both Farage and Le Pen want nothing to do with a proper investigation of their offences. They want voters to make a decisions whilst being uninformed. ( hopefully Count Binface will embarrass Farage to the hilt. Farage does have the look of a slimey crooked person!) Why is it the right wing populists are so open to corruption?

In Farage's case if he is found guilty by the parliamentary committee He will have to miss ten days of parliament and thereby  be recalled and hence a new by-election.

John McLaughlin and Jean Luc Ponty

John McLaughlin was one of the all-time great guitarists. Jean Luc Ponty the same with the electric violin.

They toured together here with the Mahavishnu orchestra and Ponty also played here with Frank Zappa  (when norman gunston was guest on mouth harp) both were at the hordern pavilion.

Around the Traps 10/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on too-lowe-for-zero
• Nick Feik on ruthless-cost-cutting-furious-staff Thanks Nick
• John Quiggin on class-not-cohortwhy-intergenerational-inequity-is-the-wrong-frame-for-thinking-about-access-to-housing-and-home-ownership-in-australia , telstras-triple-zero-failure-is-a-result-of-prioritising-neoliberal-competition-and-reaping-none-of-its-benefits
• Charles Livingstone on how-gambling-companies-use-the-grey-area-of-sponsorship-and-ads-to-reach-world-cup-viewers
• Alan Duncan and Steven Rowley on australias-housing-market-is-cooling-perhaps-our-expectations-should-too
• Steve Georgakis on the-socceroos-defensive-approach-ended-their-world-cup-dreams-they-have-some-tough-decisions-to-make
• Nicki Hutley on ai-artificial-intelligence-benefits-costs-datacentres-energy-water-environment
• Faraz Hasan on how-does-a-telstra-outage-bring-down-trains-a-telco-expert-explains
• Fei Gao and Richard Krever on how-australias-new-negative-gearing-rules-might-accidentally-favour-some-property-investors
• Peter McDonald on australias-migration-system-lacks-something-crucial-a-plan
• Alan Sunderland on abc-and-sbs-coverage-of-the-middle-east-isnt-perfect-but-the-proposed-solutions-are-ill-conceived-and-dangerous

OZ Climate

• thin-white-strips-on-brown-slopes-manufactured-ski-seasons-are-fuelling-the-climate-problem
  
• only-so-much-you-can-do-with-hydrogen-and-batteries-jet-fuel-made-from-cooking-oil-to-be-used-at-australian-airport
  
• planning-meeting-over-solar-and-battery-project-cancelled-after-none-of-133-objectors-bothers-to-show-up
  
• solar-sharer-free-power-offer-is-being-undermined-by-higher-network-charges-and-complex-tariffs
  
• renewables-remain-cheapest-new-power-option-and-avoided-us480bn-in-fossil-fuel-costs-in-2025
  
• electric-trucks-mines-and-farms-low-carbon-fuels-key-to-break-australias-foreign-fuel-dependence
  
• struggling-wind-projects-warned-their-unused-capacity-will-be-returned-to-future-cis-tenders
  
• coal-closure-interventions-are-stifling-investment-in-the-very-projects-needed-to-replace-them
  
• home-battery-market-undergoes-healthy-reset-as-rooftop-solar-lingers-in-record-territory
  
• home-battery-market-undergoes-healthy-reset-as-rooftop-solar-lingers-in-record-territory
  
• David Roche on after-home-batteries-could-the-humble-water-heater-be-the-next-big-step-forward
• Hussein Dia on fragmented-and-incomplete-why-isnt-anyone-in-charge-of-australias-ev-charger-rollout
• Em Murdock and Lucas Zeppetello on a-big-el-nino-is-likely-australia-needs-to-get-ready-now-for-drought-fire-and-the-unknown

Northern America

• the weekly dish on dude-lmao-this-is-a-gas-station Thanks Nick
• kruggers on bicentennial-memories , pump-and-dump-and-trump , the-pain-in-spain-is-mainly-in-trumps-brain , the-heat-is-on
• noahpinion on the-american-age-was-the-human-age , jd-vances-crusade-against-gdp-is-wrong-and-bad
• the conversable economist on declaration-of-independence-track-changes-version , shifts-in-non-cash-payments
• Menzie Chinn on canadian-gdp-nfp-recovers ,canadian-tory-recession-call-beware-the-revisions
• Katherine Ott on how-did-it-feel-to-be-an-american-colonist-in-1776-probably-itchy-achy-and-slightly-nauseated
• David Frum on trump-july-4 
• Isaac Chotiner on how-political-is-this-supreme-court
• Brad De Long on trump-surrendered-the-strait-of-hormuz-to-iran-and emptied-the-shelevs-of -americas-arsenal , financial-markets-see-core-inflation-as-the-problem , semi-crosspost-joey-brookhart-crystal-huang-and-dylan-patel
• Daniel Engbar on lab-leak-payback
• Jonathan Chait on graham-platner-allegations-maine-senate , trump-communism-socialism-central-control
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-maga-backlash-amy-coney-barrett
• Tyler Cowen on just-wondering-what-the-correct-model-of-iran-is-here
• Zack Beauchamp on democrats-israel-rahm-emanuel-speech
• Lev Manaud on slaughter-categorical-rule-cook-exception
• Paul Waldman on trump-communism

Europe

• Louise Perry on gone-to-australia Thanks Nick
• Ian Hill on russia-ukraine-has-tide-really-turned
• Tim Harford on the-uk-is-stuck-in-a-rollercoaster-queue
• renew economy on renewables-covered-record-58-pct-of-german-electricity-consumption-in-first-half-of-2026
• Tim Bale et al on why-nigel-farage-is-resigning-as-an-mp-only-to-stand-again-expert-analysis
• Mainly Macro on the-uks-falling-debt-to-gdp-fiscal-rule-is-a-rule-to-suppress-public-investment
• David Appell on the-european-heat-bomb
• Tim Bale et al on why-nigel-farage-is-resigning-as-an-mp-only-to-stand-again-expert-analysis
• Chris Dillow on unbusinesslike-government

Asia

• kvetch on contra-robert-manne-on-israel Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on no-china-did-not-manage-to-avoid-a-crash
• James Dwyer on chinas-submarine-missile-test-looks-routine-the-real-story-is-the-panic-it-triggered
• Oliver Nobetau on beijing-s-own-goal-in-the-pacific 
• Graham Fletcher on yes-china-does-seek-hegemony
• Tanmay Kadam on beijing-s-welfare-bill-that-no-one-wants-to-pay
• Tom Nicholls on iran-controls-war-trump
• Jessica Genauer on despite-trumps-wishes-iran-is-dragging-the-us-into-a-long-war
• Nitya Labh on south-china-sea-if-you-can-t-beat-them-build-islands
• home and away on the-state-of-the-jewish-state-july

Wonk

• Brad De Long on programmer-productivity-chart-of-the-day
• sensible medications on why-should-i-take-these-medications Thanks Nick
• Robert Gilles on who-decides-what-a-good-is Thanks Nick
• CPJ on record-number-of-journalists-killed-in-2025-israel-responsible-for-two-thirds-of-deaths Thanks Nick
• Nikki-Anne Wilson on what-is-mild-cognitive-impairment-and-does-it-always-lead-to-dementia
• Catherine Ordway and James Connor on why-reports-trump-pressed-fifa-to-overturn-a-decision-are-so-alarming
• Omar Bartov on the-judeo-bolshevist-target-jochen-hellbeck
• Keith Rathbone on after-the-red-card-scandal-has-the-shine-come-off-gianni-infantinos-world-cup

General

• Claire Allfree on out-of-the-depths-songs-concentration-camps-yiddish Thanks Nick
• Benjamin Muir on from-the-godfather-to-middlemarch-8-of-the-most-faithful-adaptations-ever

Climate

• Thomas Gernon on why-antarctica-froze-millions-of-years-before-the-arctic-new-research
• ocean acidification on assessing-early-oil-industry-awareness-of-the-impacts-of-fossil-fuels-on-coral-reefs-using-a-novel-ai-agent , reassessing-the-climate-mitigation-benefits-and-environmental-risks-of-coastal-seaweed-farming
• Bill McKibben on an-inconvenient-moment-for-an-extreme-global-heat-wave 
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• a-new-episode-in-the-francesca-gino-case
  
• 2015-vintage-replication-crisis-junk-science-floats-into-the-news
  
• n2
  
• turning-chaotic-sensitivity-from-a-bug-into-a-feature-using-physical-modeling-and-deep-learning-to-alter-the-paths-of-storms-and-mitigate-extreme-weather-events
  
• can-someone-forward-this-to-carol-tavris-please
  
• survey-statistics-toy-example-for-energy-balancing-weights 
  
• is-fabricating-data-worse-than-fabricating-results-is-failing-to-correct-a-known-false-report-more-or-less-serious-than-making-the-false-report-in-the-first-place
  
• a-medical-journal-says-the-case-reports-it-has-published-for-25-years-are-in-fact-fiction
  
• Kaiser Fung on its-all-there-even-if-you-cant-see-it

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Suzy Freeman-Greene on cant-get-enough-of-the-world-cup-here-are-the-best-books-about-soccer-chosen-by-experts
• Alex Tabarrok on what-to-watch-and-not
• Brad De long on the-centuries-of-eric-hobsbawm-ii

Vox Wonk

• generational-challenge-turning-record-youth-surge-jobs-dividend 
  
• early-life-experiences-labour-markets-faced-others-can-leave-permanent-scars-mens 
  
• economic-footprint-europes-defence-build
  
• perceived-inflation-wedge-why-households-experience-inflation-differently-official 
  
• how-households-reason-and-behave-when-deposit-rates-become-negative 
  
• housing-affordability-reshaping-europes-social-fabric 
  
• eus-recovery-and-resilience-facility-experience-and-lessons-next-multiannual 
  
• how-higher-pensions-shape-work-after-retirement-lessons-germanys-earned-income 
  
• when-frances-legion-dhonneur-awards-move-stock-prices-market-signal-political-access