Wednesday, 25 March 2026

Inflation

 the ABS released our monthly inflation rate. There was both good and bad news. The bad news was inflation barely budged at an annual rate. the good news is that for the second month inflation annualised was running within the RBAs target.

The other bad news was Trump's fooly of declaring war on Iran. This has raised the price of petrol. Because  it is ubiquitous it is like the GST being being raised. I think we can safely say the next CPI will show inflation above 4% and it rising to above 5% this year.

For history read THIS.

A supply side shock like this will cause a recession and the RBA reaction almost guarantees this. Rates wil almost certainly be raised in May and perhaps again after that.

This year is going to be tough!

Tuesday, 24 March 2026

Gerard Henderson watch

 Since the failure of catallaxy I have had no-one to examine like I could with Sinclair Davidsons absurdums.

However starting today I wil levery so often look at what Gerard Henderson is saying. It is almost always about the ABC.

For those who do not know of him he was the man who coined the Industrial relations club expression. This view has been controversial however I am sympathetic to the view. Henderson became Howard's chief of staff. He later essentially remade the Sydney Institute.

He recently made comments about Peter Hartcher on Insiders. He was quite critical that Hartcher said the vietnam war and the US invasion of Iraq were illegal just like the war on Iran. My guess is Hendo is saying the Gulf of Tonkin incident was fair dinkum, Most people believe it was made up making the war illegal.

Bush attempted to go through the UN in his desire to invade Iraq however he gave up. The USA invaded Iraq when it was under no threat from Iraq and it had no weapons that could pose a threat ( you know the alleged weapons of mass destruction. Few people believed the war had any legality.

I have yet to see any argument that the war with Iran has any legality at all.

Our Gerry doesn't like Grace Tame. He claimed the expression globalise the intifada is an expression of violence if not of murdering jews. He talks of jews being killed in both intifadas. No mention of palestinians being killed however even though their number far outweighed those of Israelis. No mention of the causes of the intifadas one or two.

Gerry does not elaborate on exactly how jews in australia could be killed. Indeed he does not elaborate on how an intifada could exist here.

I should add in ending he hates interviews at the ABC he claims  be soft yet quite easily the softest interview I have ever seen ( if you can call it an interview) was when Sharri Markson interviewed the Israeli PM who still is an indicted war criminal. our Gerry was mute.


Monday, 23 March 2026

what is happening in the middle east

 Clearly when Trump declared an illegal war on Iran he had no idea of what could occur in the strait of hormuz despite being told!

Trump wildy said he would obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure if tankers were not allowed to pass through.  See HERE for example.Trump really has no idea of the hurt Iran wants to do to the USA through the restrictions on oil and the rest. He and Israel has decimated the ruling structure of Iran thus why would they want to accommodate him?

Iran knows the political weakness Trump has regarding petrol prices thus their concentration on asymmetric warfare.

We also know that Trump lies like there is no tomorrow so I do not believe there is any talking between Iran and the USA. Trump now has time to come up with a reason to declare victory and get out. I should add Tr0mmp loves his own voice and has no self awareness and thus does not realise how incoherent he is and he believes his own lies. A terrible combination.

Iran scents blood and wants revenge a lot of revenge. Can Trump avert this. I doubt it.

If you vote a moron into office then you have to face the consequences !!

Sunday, 22 March 2026

Oz Stuff

 SA

Well the ALP romped home see also Tony Barry  but it was a bad result.unless the ALP self-destruct there cannot be a change of government at the nest election. This is bad for democracy! The Liberals were decimated by one nation who actually had the second highest amount of votes.If one nation are consistent at one thing it is self destruction which seems always to happen after they get people elected to parliament. Why? I suspect part of the explanation is they do not want to be told to do things by something who is extremely stupid!

I think the main story is the biggest thing going for the the ALP is one nation taking part of the LNP vote hence i think they will start targeting them. This will be hard because they have few policies and you cannot simply say they are racist.

Petrol

Same old same old. People are panicking mainly the cow cockies and miners and then complain about supply. I suspect this problem will be around for some time simply because Trump has no idea about it. He di not understand this would occur despite being told about the dangers and has no idea of how to solve it.

Albo needs to make some phone calls where he says if you give us no petrol we won't give you any resources!

Victoria

One nation might allow the ALP to continue to govern after their election in november. This would be a travesty. Victoria desperately needs a change of government. It would be terrible if one nation stopped this. It could be worse if they were involved in government!

Saturday, 21 March 2026

Thursday, 19 March 2026

Around the Traps 20/3/26

It is time for Around the Traps again.   This has been compromised by something that occurred on my computer!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox wonk


Wednesday, 18 March 2026

The RBA and other things

 RBA

The RBA increased interest rates. I only thought the question was would it be 25 or 50 points. I cannot believe 4 people voted to keep rates on hold. The trimmed mean is well above the target rate. It has to come down.Our economic speed limit is much lower these days so GDP has to slow. Now i would prefer the SGC temoraliy be increased rather than increase interest rates as it hit immediately and is much more equitable but that aint possible.

Budget

We have been told a few things but it is clear spending has to be cut and some taxes need to rise and others cut. The NDIS needs to get back to basics until we can afford it. The government also needs to figure out how it can facilitate productivity.

Petrol

Yeah I talked about this on monday but it is stil lthe case we have plenty of supply. what is the problem is excessive demand in otherwise panic buying. It is the cow cockies and miners who are at fault. They admit they are installing more petrol/diesel but deny panic buying. The figures say otherwise.

Queensland

up there you are not allowed to say rivers to the sea or globalise the intifada. This is a disgrace. If this occurs in NSW I am changing the  name of this blog!

Matildas

They are in the final of the Asian cup and are playing Japan. I doubt they will win ( but I hope they do) but can we just admit female football simply lacks the skill we observe in real football. the ball control, the change of direction, the magic ball through the defence etc is simply not there.

Intifada

Let us get one thing straight. The bonda massacre was horrific and done by evil people. However it was done by people who supported and were inspired by ISIS. ISIA has no sympathy whatsoever for Palestinians. They are either christians or shia muslims. They hate both.  People who assert chants about the intifada are associated with the bondi massacre are peddling either ignorance of the highest order or lies to conflate the massacre with the  what is occurring in Gaza and the West Bank. 
Either way it is evil.