some implications of the mid-terms

 Let's start with Trump.

It is very hard to predict the unpredictable however the appointment of Miller as his new chief of staff is surely an indication he will play hard ball and ignore the HUGE vote against him.I can see heaps of vetos and the DOJ amping up its 'investigations. Also remember it is the DOJ that determines who can or cannot be prosecuted on the recommendation of congress. Miller has more power so deportation aint going nowhere. A person who calls democrats a terrorist threat is mad and he is trump's main man! He is not a negotiator either.

Thus it is hard to envisage Trump changing his policies!

Also important is the fact Trump WILL determine who the next republican presidential candidate is thus they will have to embrace trumpism.

The Democrats have to look ready to 'make deals'. If the public believe them then Trump will get the blame for any vetoes and Republicans will lose the next presidential election. It will be interesting to see if they can do anything about budget repair. From where i sit they only had at worst more spending proposals at best a change in spending priorities not a reduction ( and/or a rise in taxation).

The next democrat presidential candidate will be a moderate because if he/she wins texas then it will be all over red rover and a pressive won't win texas.

The republicans are in a bind. They need to reject trumpism but cannot because MAGA cannot accept reality ( 1932 anyone). States have swung to the democrats so gerrymandering is out of the question. They probably won't get much of a swing until 2030 and those mid-terms. ( They had better hope no conservative judges die given the senate numbers.

A few things

 New Zealand

They had an election overthere and no-one won but but no-one lost! Late votes wil ldetermine who governs.

Israel

The President has asked Eisenkot to try and form a government. He does have time but his coalition is very wide and only agree on tossing Netanyahu. Few parties want Arabs in their coalition government

As Orwell might have said not all israelis are equal!!

USA

Trump gives the US electorate the middle finger by appointing Miller a racist bigot as his chief of staff signaling he will fight congress not attempt to govern with them.

He then tells the DOJ to examine those in congress who want to investigate the administration.

Sandpapergate

Well Uzzie said all the team was into this. Of course they were, the bowlers in particular. They are the most concerned with whoever is dealing with the ball. A person who does not know what they are doing can make for a dud cricket ball. The bowlers therefore would have a very close eye on what was happening to the ball.  Only a wood-duck would have believed only three people were involved.

double minded people

Can people get their arguments straight. IF government spending is the problem by pumping up demand then we cannot be heading into a recession, nor can we feel like it is in a recession. If we are heading into a recession or fell like it then inflation will fall  and fall by a lot! IF the government is taxing too much then that offsets spending somewhat.

If people want immigration to fall but nominate areas where they will rise then other areas such as Unis, Cafes and aged care will be cut drastically!!!

Canned Heat

 Here they are at woodstock doing on the road again. As the old saying goes if you remember woodstock you weren't there.

Around the Traps 6/11/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on why-rba-watches-quarterly-trimmed-mean
• burnout economics on why-the-rba-is-increasingly-trapped 
• Stella Huangfu on rba-hikes-interest-rates-to-an-18-year-high-warning-inflation-will-hurt-for-another-year
• Nicki Hutley on rba-split-inflation-effects-rate-hike-australia-economic-outlook
• Mark the Graph on the-nairu-is-structural-and-slow-moving
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-says-there-is-excess-demand-in-the-economy-households-doing-it-tough-might-disagree
• Jason Lodge on australian-classrooms-are-getting-a-digital-detox-what-does-this-mean-for-schools-and-students
• Robert Crawford on david-jones-falls-into-administration-and-its-outdated-business-model-explains-why
• the tally room on is this the end of two party preferred

OZ Climate

• australias-most-powerful-turbines-up-to-9-5-mw-mooted-for-giant-wind-project-outside-steel-city
  
• big-battery-durations-are-headed-to-double-figures-and-their-chemistries-are-changing-again
  
• nsw-responds-to-rez-inquiry-recommendations-as-barnaby-joyce-dials-up-the-anti-renewables-rhetoric 
  
• solar-bonanza-merchant-revenues-soar-to-highest-level-in-two-years-as-gas-generation-hits-all-time-low
  
• household-gas-use-is-falling-much-faster-than-connections-new-data-shows-as-quiet-quitting-takes-hold
  
• victoria-will-have-higher-electricity-prices-and-more-gas-without-vni-west
  
• no-scare-campaigns-or-blanket-assurances-albany-offers-a-chance-to-lead-on-home-electrification
  
• cows-and-cyclones-push-to-design-solar-farms-for-cattle-and-climate-is-back-but-is-australia-ready
  
• the-rise-and-fall-of-the-lgc-market-and-the-data-centre-policy-decision-that-will-determine-its-fate
  
• australia-is-headed-for-its-biggest-year-of-rooftop-solar-growth-ever-and-the-mid-scale-boom-is-yet-to-come
  
• government-says-climate-and-energy-reporting-not-core-news-of-public-interest-as-dis-information-runs-wild
  
• Rita Akai et al on climate-change-is-killing-the-plants-of-ulur-u-kata-tju-a-an-angu-traditional-owners-are-concerned
• Jesse Fahnestock on australia-barely-owns-a-ship-but-moves-the-world-s-heaviest-cargo-and-carbon

Northern America 

• Glenn Hubbard on america-needs-a-citizens-assembly-to-reform-social-security thanks Nick
• can we still govern on doges-willing-executioners thanks Nick
• institutional economics on nominal-gdp-and-the-us-midterms
• Rachel Booth on healthcare-republicans-medicaid-gop-midterms-aca-healthinsurance-premiums
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-the-us-wealth-distribution , a-sick-society-must-think-much-about-politics
• Kruggers on trumponomics-a-midterm-report-card , oligarchy-is-on-the-ballot, it-wasnt-just-the-economy-stupid, what-democrats-can-do, americas-backlash-against-oligarchy
• Isaac Stanley-Becker on serbia-dodik-russia-maga 
• Rozina Ali on the-real-stakes-of-the-ilhan-omar-case 
• Ryan Goodman on presumption-of-regularity 
• Harry Litman on trump-puts-doj-lawyers-in-indefensible
• Jay Willis on 2026-election-news-alaska-dan-sullivan-shenanigans
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-nielsen-watanabe-bivens-ice
• Quinta Jurecic on doj-elections
• unpopular front on where-were-at Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on anomalous-corporate-earnings-numbers , a-114-swing-in-the-electorate-has-consequences , the-ghost-of-jean-jacques-rousseau-drives-men-mad
• Andrew Gawthorpe on donald-trumps-republicans-suffer-landslide-defeat-what-this-means-for-the-world, combine-blacks-and-the-moderate-non-racist-white-vote-and-you-ought-to-have-a-majority-in-the-south
• Helen Lewis on trump-midterm-results-schadenfreude
• noahpinion on normal-americans-punished-maga
• Cory Alpert on trump-lost-the-midterms-not-his-grip-on-foreign-policy
• Eric Levitt on midterm-elections-2026-trump-democrats-david-shor-iran
• Madiba Dennie on black-voters-blue-wave-callais-gerrymander-dummymander
• McKay Coppins on midterms-conservative-republicans-identity
• Anne Applebaum on future-democracy
• Jonathan Nash on congress-options-courts-litigation-executive-branch
• Tim Stretton on executive-branch-resists-questions-congress-should-ask
• Harry Litman on where-to-begin
• home and away on special-edition-rebuke-november-4
• Jeet Heer on haley-stevens-mike-rogers-endorsement-fallout

Europe

• Luca Belgiorno-Nettis on france-has-a-radical-idea-for-fixing-its-debt-crisis thanks Nick
• the ruffian on what-is-the-sally-rooney-case-really-about thanks Nick
• Geoff Mulgan on power-failure-and-the-paradox-of-the-british-state thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on recession-in-france
• Anne Applebaum on trump-europe-guilfoyle-afd-meddling
• mainly macro on what-is-wrong-with-boring-budgets
• Tim Judah on serbias-graduation-day

Asia

• Jeremy Levin on true zionists should welcome arab participation  in Israel's government thanks Nick
• Amitava Kumar on inside-indias-cockroach-protests 
• Gabriela Bernal on almost-a-million-extra-mines-on-the-dmz-and-it-s-not-about-war 
• Ria Shiabata on takaichi-s-yasukuni-half-measure-satisfies-no-one
• Rachel Booth on israel-election-netanyahu-palestinian-arab-democracy-gaza
• Khang Vu on kyiv-s-warnings-of-tens-of-thousands-more-north-korean-troops-never-came-true
• Kristeen Bondietta on apec-2026-let-s-get-back-to-the-future-on-trade

Wonk

• the unfinished on nietzsche-is-a-self-help-author thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on liberated-by-technology-again 
• Eoin McLaughlin on 70-years-ago-the-suez-crisis-exposed-british-relative-decline-today-the-iran-conflict-could-be-doing-the-same-for-the-us
• noahpinion on anthropics-moat-is-claude
• Iwa Salami on the-us-6-3-billion-binance-hack-is-the-biggest-heist-ever-it-should-be-a-wake-up-call-for-cryptocurrency-users
• Nicholas Westcott on why-trump-xi-and-putin-cant-carve-up-the-world-like-the-big-three-leaders-of-1945
• Chris Dillow on on-ambiguity

General

• Philip Almond on how-the-buddha-became-a-christian-saint thanks Nick
• noahpinion on farewell-my-captain
• Kevin Brophy on is-this-the-weirdest-most-beautiful-cricket-book-ever-written
• Santosh Dhungana and Nicolas Flament on earths-rocks-have-a-missing-layer-spanning-up-to-a-billion-years-we-finally-know-where-it-went
• Guus Kroonen et al on we-used-ancient-dna-to-track-the-origins-and-spread-of-the-germanic-and-celtic-languages-new-research

Climate 

• Gareth Roberts and Martin Wooster on indonesias-el-nino-driven-peat-fires-are-choking-the-region-and-releasing-centuries-of-stored-carbon
• Ajit Naranjan on permanent-damage-crysophere-overshoots-15c-scientists-warn
• citizens challenge on problem-appreciating-physical-reality
• skeptical science on new_research
• Alex Tabarrok on pollution-as-growth-killer
• renew economy on trumps-war-in-iran-has-rocketed-renewables-to-the-top-of-the-policy-agenda-says-iea

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• this-guy-has-a-transformer-based-election-forecasting-model
  
• problems-with-the-do-no-harm-principle-in-the-presence-of-uncertainty
  
• evolutionary-psychology-hypotheses-are-testable-and-falsifiable
  
• legislative races 
• science-is-not-naturally-aligned
  
• alan-zaslavsky
  
• why-it-can-be-rational-to-vote-4
  
• survey-statistics-times-siena-polls-and-times-voter-trends
  
• discussion-of-tonights-election-results
  
• so-in-that-sense-the-silly-statistics-in-the-paper-is-no-big-deal-it-serves-as-a-sort-of-rhetorical-flourish
  
• could-the-2026-election-results-lead-to-a-decrease-in-political-polarization
  
• constructing-a-latent-variable-model-to-fit-measurement-data-a-stan-story
  
• Kaiser Fung on ai-dog-collars
• freakometrics on multi-dimensional distribution fairness

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-big-catch-up-what-ive-been-reading
  
• Tyler Cowen on fjord-and-fatherland

Vox Wonk

• assessing-china-technological-innovator 
  
• stablecoins-vehicle-dollarisation-evidence-capital-controls-and-currency-crises 
  
• boom-bust-roaring-twenties-great-depression 
  
• when-judges-move-markets-ideological-shifts-supreme-court-and-macroeconomic 
  
• stablecoins-and-macroeconomy-bank-disintermediation-versus-fiscal-space 
  
• network-approach-geopolitics 
  
• repo-new-dollar-safe-asset 
  
• job-seekers-beliefs-and-preferences-over-wages-and-benefits-experimental-evidence 
  
• bank-executive-pay-compensation-design-can-help-reduce-excessive-risk-taking 
  
• easy-money-does-not-win-elections 
  
• monetary-policy-times-high-public-debt
  

The bluenami ( which I predicted)

 Let me pound my chest. When Trump won in 2024 I said he would lose bigtime in the mid-terms  in september. 

Let us go through a few things shall we.

Trump is terrible at politics

He won in a fluke in 2016 and courtesy of Comey's improper intervention. He got a minority of the vote. He badly lost the mid-terms and in other years. He won narrowly in 2024 when incumbent government lost big.  He is an expert at choosing bad candidates.

Polling

Yes Trump over-performed in election compared to polling in 2016 (a little) and 2024 ( a lot) BUT democrats over-performed in mid-terms since 2016!

Policies

I stated when he won his policies were incoherent and would lead to disaster. Tariffs would lead to increased costs and therefore prices is just one example. He never understood tariffs and no-one was around to correct him.

He was in a bubble

He had a blonde printing out only good news. He simply did not know what the punters thought.

The major issues

He was badly behind on all major issues even immigration. See previous topic. When you arrest law abiding people rather than the worst of the worst and then kill people and lie in court about arrests it eventually hits home. Latinos hit with inflation and then this said bye bye to trump.

Corruption

He did not even try to hide his corruption as he thought he was bullet proof. He wasn't. Like Orbaan he got hit with this linked to inflation.

Incompetence

When you appoint people because of loyalty not ability shite happens. The DOJ is possibly the best example of this.

Revenge

It was only a small issue but simply added to others. You cannot deny lawfare when you openly state it and when the cases blow up it only made it worse.

Billionaires

They wasted a lot of money and actually made it a positive issue for Democrats. Musk for example is political poison 

The gerrymandering by republicans was incompetent. they lost almost all the seats they thought they would win. One swing was over 70%. 

Iran War

Whoopsy how could I forget this. An example of Trump incompetence in action that punished americans because he was too lazy to do his job properly. This and epstein meant the typical punter got sick of his lies.

the rate rise we had to have

 The RBA raised interest rates as expected. HERE is an article on the rise which I don't disagree with much.

Models never predict turning points very well. I think we are close to that now. When we are there price rises wil slow quite a lot.

A lot of people are saying it feels like a recession now even the RBA governor has commented on this. It is a load of hooey. ( that is a technical term.) If people simply 'felt' a recession and acted like that then inflation would not be a problem.

It is a bit like people saying housing is now unaffordable. If this was the case then housing prices would have been falling well before interest rates started to rise.

Thus I suspect rates may well fall sometime next year as  inflation falls by more than expected.

A few things on melbourne cup day

 melbourne cup rant

I have always found it hypocritical that employers who bemoan public holidays and scream about productivity are mute on melbourne cup day. It epitomises Australia. We bludge on a day to celebrate a damned horse race. We get drunk and lose money betting on it. 

usa

That court case involving two FBI agents got tossed as did the alaskan case.(see the florida lawman on youtube for a good explanation of the decision.)

They vote tomorrow and Brad De Long has possibly the best article on the polls.

In Michigan the gal who lost the democratic senate primary now supports the republican. She DEMANDED he call out ads done by third parties. It seems calling him a jihadist a supporter of ISIS, muslim brotherhood, al qaeda is fine!

I see the republican candidate in Kansas is saying the democratic candidate could have been grooming young boys!

My view is if you ( yes I am talking to you yanks) don't think Trump needs some checks and balances then sorry you are very stupid!!

different

it appears  people see phantom lighthouses here is OZ.