Around the Traps 9/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on australias-current-account-deficit-is-increasing-should-we-care, the-twi-and-monetary-policy-tightness, the-twi-and-monetary-policy-tightness_part2
• Milad Haghani on byd-is-reshaping-australias-car-market-how-did-it-get-here
• Patrick Commins on canada-migration-technical-recession-economy-lessons-for-australia
• Hal Pawson on this-chart-tells-you-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-downturn-in-property-prices
• Mathew Crocker on before-the-budget-how-governor-phillip-managed-without-cash-in-the-colony
• Adam Simpson on the-greens-have-squibbed-it-on-ukraine-abandoning-a-democracy-under-attack
• Ross Gittins on the-economy/trying-to-tame-inflation-with-higher-interest-rates-is-dumb-and-unfair
• Alan Gamlen on the-coalitions-migration-policy-rests-on-a-series-of-false-premises
• Andrew Norton on the-coalitions-migration-changes-would-slash-international-student-enrolments
• Fengfei Li on are-you-seeing-new-service-fees-since-the-card-surcharge-ban-here-are-the-rules
• Antony Green on nsw2027-how-optional-preferential-voting-could-re-elect-the-minns-government
• Abul Rizvi on angus-taylor-coalition-immigration-plan-misses-target-politics-policy
• Antipodean macro professional on antipodean-housing-deep-dive-1
• Sarah Canales on net-overseas-migration-how-do-policies-compare-labor-coalition-one-nation
• Stewart Lockie et al on the-migration-debate-has-a-big-blind-spot-much-of-regional-australia-is-shrinking
• Flavio Menezes on why-a-greens-plan-for-624-public-supermarkets-to-take-on-woolies-and-coles-just-doesnt-add-up
• Greg Jericho on australia-is-building-a-lot-of-new-homes-but-is-the-datacentre-boom-holding-us-back
• Donovan Castelyn on some-small-businesses-are-paying-tax-bills-with-credit-cards-what-will-happen-when-they-cant

OZ Climate

• huge-195-tonne-transformer-arrives-at-big-battery-site-after-1300-km-road-trip
  
• australia-is-making-big-bets-on-a-slow-transition-but-the-technology-s-curve-tells-a-different-story
  
• biggest-wind-farm-in-two-years-reaches-financial-close-the-ninth-in-last-12-months
  
• origin-wants-to-supersize-the-eraring-battery-to-make-it-easily-the-biggest-in-the-country
  
• rooftop-pv-system-sizes-feel-the-battery-effect-but-its-still-a-bumper-year-for-home-solar
  
• utility-solar-power-hits-record-high-in-first-month-of-spring-as-gas-generation-falls-to-new-low
  
• tilting-at-wind-masts-turbine-giant-dismisses-littleprouds-rant-against-dangerous-monitoring-equipment
  
• electrifying-apartment-buildings-is-complex-but-huge-cost-savings-from-ditching-gas-justify-the-pain
  
• solar-recycling-could-lose-its-silver-lining-expert-tells-inquiry-as-case-for-mandatory-fee-stacks-up
  
• australian-wind-farm-starts-hit-record-levels-but-the-technology-is-dead-in-the-state-that-needs-it-most
  
• rooftop-solar-smashes-output-records-in-two-states-as-home-batteries-dull-grid-impact-in-sunny-spring
  
• the-great-big-solar-soak-batteries-are-starting-to-drive-up-midday-electricity-prices
• Graham Readfearn on australia-weather-el-nino-climate-crisisseptember-record
• Kumuthini Sivathas and Sussan Stone on why-are-new-wind-farms-stuck-in-the-doldrums-in-australia
• Michael-Shawn Fletcher et al on colonisation-not-climate-change-first-primed-these-forests-to-burn
• Md Qays on youve-probably-never-heard-of-synchronous-condensers-but-theyre-essential-in-the-push-for-renewables

Northern America

• Kruggers on the-midterms, who-dropped-the-bonds-interest-rates-part11, the-trump-administration-is-a-cesspit-of-corruption, ai-versus-everything-else, 
• noahpinion on the-second-trump-presidency-is-a-world-historic-failure , what-the-ai-boom-is-doing-for-americans, there-is-no-indian-question
• new deal democrat on september-jobs-report-a-weakly-positive-report-consistent-with-an-inflationary-expansion, leading-indicators-from-the-september-employment-report-continue-positive-trends
• the conversable economist on financial-literacy-how-many-can-pass-the-test , nequity-in-k-12-school-spending, the-challenge-of-us-rural-development
• Rachel Landingham on pete-hegseth-military-state-of-the-force-speech-rhetoric
• Ivana Damjanovic on why-an-eu-associate-membership-is-the-wrong-canada-story 
• Jonathan Blitzer on ice-is-everywhere-and-acting-with-impunity
• Brad De Long on aggregate-total-factor-productivity-and-artificial-intelligence , crosspost-steve-vladeck-256-so-unexplained, crosspost-justin-wolfers-an-agreement-to-agree-on-an-earlier-agreement
• skeptical science on america-hurtling-toward-power-grid-crisis
• Ian Philbrick on trump-nato-allies-biden-china
• Menzie Chinn on reconciling-expected-revenues-to-expenditures

Europe

• Mark Poynting on swiss glaciers suffer disastrous year of ice loss, threatening water supplies  
• Thomas Jeffries on the-death-of-a-russian-plague-researcher-explained-by-a-microbiologist
• mainly macro on misconceptions-following-burnhams-speech
• Phillips O'Brien on divide-and-rule-the-us-strategy-towards-europe Thanks Ben Hodge
• Ian Hill on russia-doubling-down-in-ukraine-and-against-the-west
• Chris Dillow on who-needs-thought
• Kruggers on whats-the-matter-with-france 
• Tyler Cowen on how-and-why-did-the-victorians-succeed

Asia

• Christopher Eylward on how-beijing-could-throttle-taiwan-without-firing-a-shot
• Hilman Palaon on indonesia-new-finance-minister-faces-test-of-delivery
• Eyal Mayroz on three-years-after-october-7-global-attention-on-gaza-has-receded-the-real-test-will-come-after-israels-election
• Adam Kirsch on zionism-israel-palestine-history
• Henry Storey on south-korea-rides-the-ai-boom-unevenly
• Alan Eyre on oil-hormuz-iran-war
• Brad De Long on crossposthighlighted-robert-farley-October7-and-now-everything-has-got-worse
• Amir Tibon on nahal-oz-israel-elections-netanyahu
• David Remnick on will-netanyahu-escape-his-reckoning
• Hunter Parson on what-to-make-of-china-s-new-air-facility-in-laos 
• Mosab Toha on back-to-school-in-gaza

Wonk

• Yanis Varoufakis on the-centre-lefts-slow-suicide Thanks Nick
• Rob Henderson on no-one-expects-young-men-to-do-anything Thanks Nick
• symbolic capitalism on on-education Thanks Nick
• James Lind on the-importance-of-james-burnham Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch, the-greg-clark-symposium
• Brad De Long on the-highly-cultured-vladimir-lenin-sanewashing-of-the-day 
• Debora Thome on brazil-elections-2026-first-round-victories-demand-a-commitment-to-democracy-by-the-far-right-that-has-not-yet-been-made
• Mark the Graph on its-brave-new-world
• Alex Tabbarok on against-laissez-faire-democracy
• home and away on from-wars-of-choice-to-war-of-choices

General

• Sacha Morel on the-catcher-in-the-rye-is-75-and-every-time-i-meet-holden-caulfield-i-see-him-anew
• Tim Harford on i-was-wrong-about-bad-girl-books
• Michelle Campbell-Ward on africas-rhinos-often-get-the-spotlight-but-indonesias-two-rhino-species-are-far-closer-to-extinction
• Robert Lucas on how-pond-algae-led-to-a-nobel-prize-and-a-new-way-to-study-the-brain
• Jay Silverstein on secret-chambers-in-tutankhamuns-tomb-could-hold-the-burial-of-a-lost-egyptian-queen-we-may-get-answers-soon
• Donna Lu on astronomy-fast-radio-bursts-frb-radio-waves

Climate

• Jacqueline Peel on in-a-year-of-record-breaking-heat-australia-and-pacific-leaders-meet-to-sharpen-climate-goals
• David Appell on el-nino-regions-amazing-sst
• Wesley Morgan and Liam Moore on 1-5-c-to-stay-alive-pacific-countries-demand-the-world-makes-good-on-climate-promises
• ocean acidification on carbon-in-the-ocean
• open mind on co2-growth-and-el-nino
• skeptical science on world-without-solar-and-wind, new_research
• Charles Hunt et al on pacific-people-pay-exorbitant-prices-for-energy-rich-countries-should-back-their-renewable-transition
• James Hopeward et al on hoping-for-a-new-normal-climate-is-pointless-we-must-learn-to-adapt

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• if-you-were-planning-to-send-me-a-chatbot-written-email-or-post-a-chatbot-written-comment-just-send-or-post-your-prompt
  
• using-the-computer-to-p-hack-id-rather-use-it-to-fit-multilevel-models
  
• a-plan-to-replicate-the-loftus-and-palmer-1974-on-false-memories
  
• ok-this-is-just-weird-from-alaska-airlines
  
• survey-statistics-2-different-uses-of-simulated-data
  
• our-unending-struggles-with-the-monster-model
  
• whats-the-deal-with-the-rmet-the-reading-the-mind-in-the-eyes-test
  
• statschat on fool-me-twice
• Kaiser Fung on the-art-of-curation

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Emmett Stinson on written-as-a-single-sentence-adam-oustons-mine-is-a-novel-under-the-influence
• Marina Bolotnokova on opposite-of-happiness-loewenstein
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• strategic-sovereignty-social-movements-and-political-agency-evidence-us-israeli 
  
• hiding-mean-ai-adding-jobs-and-removing-them-same-time 
  
• impact-ai-and-cross-border-data-regulation-international-trade-digital-services
  
• bonding-through-crises-nonbank-financial-institutions 
  
• venture-capital-global-perspective
  
• not-all-geopolitical-shocks-are-inflationary
  
• worker-managed-firms-can-curb-inequality-and-protect-free-markets
  
• adjustment-danish-labour-market-ai-has-begun  
  
• cultural-norms-matter-macroeconomic-development
  

The Opposition's immigration policy is a joke

Here are a few views:

• Alan Gamlan
• Andrew Norton
• Abul Rizvi
• Stewart Lockie et al
  

Okay so these experts can see quite a few problems. The Opposition answered none of my questions and it appears to have used the PBO not as much as they claimed in saying they had done the costings for them. Certainly Taylor could not answer some simple questions about their policy.

We expect this from One Nation as they are both lazy and stupid but we expect a lot better from the LNP!

I need a reason to vote for them and they keep on refuse to do that.

There should be NO march today

 I have said previously some supporters of palestine possess no political understanding. Today I am repeating myself.

I support the creation of Israel as the UN did way back in 1947.

However on October 7 an unspeakable evil was affected  on Israeli people a lot who were sympathetic to the palestinian cause. The day should be left alone.

You can protect any day but this one about the creation of Palestine and the genocide imposed on palestinian people by the government of Israel but leave October 7 silent.

It does not help your cause demonstrating today indeed it may lead people to oppose your cause.

Demonstrating today is simply trumpian. Do not do it!

the coalition on immigration

 We are told in breat-taking fashion the coalition is releasing their policy on immigration today.

I have written about immigration before. I would not be surprised if we hear generalities today on HOW they will cut immigration as there are massive problems that occur when you want to massively cut immigration.

Let us assume they will leave backpackers alone to help the agricultural sector. Then this means they will have to cut in large terms

• family reunions (one of which is aussies who marry foreigners), 
• skilled labour for industry
• unskilled labour for retail and such  ( where uni students are important)
• foreign students at tertiary institutions

It will also have large effects on the budget in that it will increase the deficit.

Also very important is the politics. Imagine such a large cut is implemented. There would be a very loud hue and cry from those people and institutions affected.

I very much doubt we we will get any specifics form the Opposition

public holidays

Today in Sydanee ( forgotten the olympics already?) we celebrate a public holiday.

We do have a number

January 1  new years day

January 26  australia day

April 3 easter friday

April 4 day following 

April 5 easter sunday

April 6 easter monday 

April 25 anzac day

April 27 anzac day holiday

June 8 kings birthday

october 5 labour day

december 25 christmas day

Australia became a nation on January 1 not 26! We have had three following public holidays because they were on the weekend. We celebrate a birthday on the wrong day.

We are lucky in Australia as we get 4 weeks recreation leave. We also have a number of public holidays as well.

Surely we should only have public holidays for celebrating significant events.

Let me make some recommendations.

Make January 1 Australia day as that is when we became a nation. I am happy to keep easter but no catch up on a monday ( same with christmas.) Why do we celebrate a bad military defeat? Why not the end of a world war?

I am also happy to keep labour day as it is important in our nation's history.

There should be no catch up on a monday because a significant day occurred on the weekend. It only desecrates the importance of the day!

Around the Traps 2/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Christoph Nedopil on chinas-economy-is-changing-rapidly-its-no-longer-australias-easy-export-market
• Abu Barkat on australias-legacy-systems-were-already-a-cyber-risk-ai-agents-are-raising-the-stakes
• Michelle Grattan on larissa-waters-steps-down-as-greens-leader-due-to-health-reasons
• Stella Huangfu on rba-lifts-rates-to-highest-level-in-15-years-risking-a-sharper-slowdown-of-the-economy
• Mick Ryan on fast-following-edge-australia-defence-needs
• Hangga Fathana on australia-s-migration-dilemma-short-term-pressures-long-term-costs
• Saul Eslake on rba-inflation-blame-game-politicians-reserve-bank-australia
• Isaac Gross on inflation-lifts-to-4-0-in-august-keeping-pressure-on-the-rba-for-another-rate-rise
• Alan Duncan on interest-rates-have-hit-their-highest-level-since-2011-the-pain-will-feel-different-in-2026
• Greg Jericho on turbocharged-petrol-prices-driving-inflation-rba-rates-recession-employment
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on are-australians-really-overtaxed-it-depends-what-you-think-government-should-do
• Millie Muroi on unemployment-probably-does-need-to-climb-for-now

OZ Climate

• some-solar-panels-are-only-2-years-old-when-theyre-discarded-pv-expert-says-retirement-fee-could-fix-this
  
• uncharted-territory-fears-as-weather-whiplash-sparks-tree-die-off-and-dials-up-bushfire-risk
  
• too-much-wind-and-solar-the-state-wide-blackout-and-the-dinner-party-that-changed-the-course-of-history
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-finally-completed-and-acting-as-giant-shock-absorber-to-the-grid
  
• australian-households-installed-record-amount-of-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-in-first-half-of-2026
  
• productivity-has-been-weak-mining-and-construction-are-the-main-culprits-just-look-at-diesel-and-lng
  
• its-been-10-years-since-the-blackout-of-south-australia-could-it-happen-again
  
• the-future-of-farming-is-electric-but-outdated-rules-can-force-us-to-pay-market-rates-for-our-own-solar
  
• the-revolutionary-methane-detection-technology-that-probably-wont-fit-into-our-regulatory-box
  
• its-made-us-more-wasteful-solar-and-battery-homes-plug-in-to-a-new-age-of-abundant-energy
  
• origin-energy-drops-plan-for-massive-wind-project-in-new-england-citing-rising-costs
• still-in-the-dark-snowy-hydros-awkward-anniversary-marked-without-promised-review-of-snowy-2-costings
  
• Michael Vardon on unsustainable-or-manageable-we-dont-yet-know-how-data-centres-will-impact-australias-environment
• Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al on we-can-finally-measure-the-damage-each-new-coal-gas-or-oil-project-will-do-to-people-and-nature
• Phil Brewer on as-el-nino-strengthens-across-the-pacific-australian-farmers-could-face-fierce-frosts
• Liz Hicks on nsws-largest-coal-mine-project-is-set-to-expand-heres-what-authorities-got-wrong-about-the-trade-offs

Northern America

• John Quiggin on us-republicans-are-worse-than-any-far-right-european-party Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on booms-bombs-and-bonds-interest-rates-part1, i-approve-of-trumps-ad, the-beclowning-of-scott-bessent, one-more-reason-americans-hate-ai, a-globalist-comeback
• Elizabeth Bruening on maga-right-christianity-empathy-toxic, a-who-you-gonna-believe-election
• Julian Hill on trump-unable-to-stop-clean-energy-revolution-as-wind-and-solar-output-surges-and-coal-shrinks
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oligarchy-is-a-symptom-not-the-cause
• the conversable economist on i-would-like-the-value-of-my-home-to-rise-while-my-property-taxes-fall
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-missouri-gerrymander-lower-courts-are-crazy
• Shirin Ali on watch-republican-eric-schmitt-jack-smith-perjury-hawks
• noahpinion on stop-spending-money-on-smaller-classes
• Dahlia Lithwick on donald-trump-white-house-press-ban-fail
• Helen Lewis on maga-senate-hearing-eric-schmitt
• home and away on venue
• Jeet Heer on kimberly-guilfoyle-is-a-master-of-mafia-diplomacy, susan-collins-scandal-election
• Brad De Long on us-rooftop-solar-stalled-2026, 
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-state-of-force-address
• Harry Litman on the-gig-may-be-up-for-trump-and-blanche
• Sarah Fitzpatrick on kash-patel-fbi-trump-midterm-elections

Europe

• James Skinner and Danny Hill on stripped-titles-compensating-rivals-how-the-manchester-city-cheating-scandal-could-play-out
• Maksym Beznosiuk and Thom Reilly on ukraine-war-russia-occupation-construction
• David Galbreath on us-attempts-to-control-ukraines-attacks-on-russia-reflect-a-fundamental-strategic-disconnect
• mainly macro on populist-tendencies-on-uk-left-and-the-puzzle-that-never-was

Asia

• Ann Neuburger on new-chinese-way-of-cyberwar-ai Thanks Nick
• Jaideep Saikia on china-s-gwadar-gamble-isn-t-paying-off
• Vivian Salama on egypt-israel-gaza-hamas-palestinian-october-7
• Afeeya Akhand on south-korea-s-food-waste-model-and-its-limits
• Robin Wright on irans-bitterness-and-bewilderment-over-how-to-make-peace-with-trump
• Peter Beinart on robert-kraft-netanyahu-israel-supporters

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-simon-ehrlich-wager-over-125-years
• programmable mutter on machine-god-metaphors-eat-your-brain Thanks Nick
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-xi-summit-who-is-competing
• noahpinion on wheres-the-intelligence-explosion, roundup-89-it-isnt-x-its-y
• the conversable economist on s-shaped-utility-curves-poverty-and-risk-taking
• Neophytos Georgiou on are-autistic-people-more-vulnerable-to-extremist-content
• Svitlana Chernkyh et al on can-we-predict-genocide-by-listening-to-what-leaders-say-research-finds-common-threads
• Abhijnan Rej on claude-for-clausewitz
• Ved Shinde on speed-over-judgement-is-winning-the-ai-arms-race
• Nicholas Gruen on accountability-from-above-and-below
• Chris Dillow on who-wants-free-markets
• Mark the Graph on the-fragile-equilibrium
• Stephen Leib and Guido Junior on with-a-tragedy-averted-the-flydubai-incident-has-put-cockpit-security-under-new-scrutiny

General

• Brad De Long on an-lushan-industrial-revolution-china-great-divergence
• Luke Steller et al on how-sugar-from-outer-space-became-one-of-the-backbones-of-life-on-earth

Climate

• ocean acidification on thermal-history-and-behavioural-plasticity-shape-reef-fish-tolerance-to-marine-heatwaves, the-future-of-aquatic-food-systems-climate-change-adaptation-and-resilience-strategies-a-narrative-review
• Tina Soliman-Hunter on floating-power-plants-could-offer-coastal-communities-a-reliable-energy-source-heres-how
• Graham Readfearn on antarctic-winter-sea-ice-falls-to-third-lowest-level-on-record-as-scientists-warn-of-now-problem
• Matt King and Nancy Gertier on tragedy-stopped-mawson-exploring-this-remote-antarctic-region-we-must-get-there-to-study-its-melting-ice
• Ligin Joseph on how-can-the-same-el-nino-cause-drought-in-one-part-of-the-world-and-floods-in-another
• skeptical science on impacts-record-shattering-el-nino , new_research
• renew economy on nuclear-powers-quarter-century-of-stagnation-has-no-end-in-sight-and-has-been-overtaken-by-solar-pv
• open mind on they-know-not-what-they-do

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• as-a-society-we-are-pretty-good-at-transferring-money-to-political-pundits-but-were-not-very-good-at-nurturing-the-human-capital-they-would-need-to-correct-their-own-mistakes
  
• corruption-of-government-facilitated-by-enablers-in-intellectual-society
  
• survey-of-academic-bureaucracy
  
• a-nonlinear-effect-plus-measurement-error-in-x-becomes-close-to-linear-a-simulation-study
  
• ai-chooses-nuclear-option-in-95-of-war-simulations 
  
• survey-statistics-anova-follow-up
  
• prior-distributions-partial-pooling-and-reference-sets-bayesians-are-frequentists
  
• bell-bottom-jeans-disco-gas-shortages-and-esp
  
• when-are-causal-inference-methods-needed-to-answer-causal-questions
  
• nicholas-goddamn-roerich
  
• Tim Harford on random-is-as-random-does
• Kaiser Fung on mirror-images , a-or-b-but-not-both
• freakometrics on governing fairness in insurance pricing

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Lisa Herzog on how-to-run-the-ivory-tower
• Tyler Cowen on shade
• Stoat on book-review-chimpanzee-rights

Vox Wonk

• measuring-what-work-generative-ai-does-survey-evidence-versus-chat-logs 
  
• quantifying-financial-repression-through-lens-portfolio-choice-century-evidence 
  
• smokestack-illusion-who-really-pays-net-zero
  
• cost-not-innovating-frontier-ai-models-cyber-defence-and-eu-strategic-autonomy 
  
• capital-inflows-boost-output-even-after-accounting-expectations 
  
• geopolitical-risk-reshaping-global-finance-one-bank-loan-time 
  
• lifting-curtain-eus-debt 
  
• better-work-not-always-better-workers 
  
• beyond-flows-how-natural-gas-supply-risk-fuels-inflation 
  
• when-wall-street-drifts-main-street-consumption-anchor-stock-prices 
  
• changing-structure-and-challenges-international-financial-system-imbalances
  
• training-novices-think-age-large-language-models 
  
• global-imbalances-and-china-challenge
  
• navigating-geoeconomic-risk-us-stock-market
  

fiscal policy here

 Can somebody help me here.

ECON101 tells you Spending and TAXATION are important to fiscal policy. It is allied to the Structural Deficit ( or cyclical adjusted budget deficit). It is the change in the structural deficit that influences economic activity.

Why are people all talking about spending and ignoring taxation. When you do you find both the overall and the structural deficit are less than 1% and falling albeit slowly ( too slowly).

Now compare that to the USA where both are over 5%. Why is not inflation ( and therefore interest rates) going through the roof there?

One reason could be that our speed limit is smaller however it would only explain it a little.

Now I am not saying fiscal policy is right. At worst the budget should be balanced. What I am saying is that it appears everyone appears to have forgotten about taxation. If they did then the spending probleem is plainly exagerated.