Quiggin on solar energy and zero interest rates

 John Quiggin is good when he is not censoring people views because of political correctness.

He has two short articles which are thoroughly interesting.

1. too-cheap-to-meter-2
   
2. transmission-too
   

An added bonus from Renew Energy on solar-power-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-says-iea

Why Trump is likely to lose

 Donald Trump is a minority President. He may even won the election in a fluke however he acted like he won in a landslide. Unlike say Nixon or Clinton ( you cannot get more diversified than that) he has made no attempt to reach out to the middle ground. sure he has solidified his base but that rarely wins elections.

He and his party has had massive swings against them in what we Aussies call by-elections.

The Mid-terms were a disaster. Unlike Clinton or Obama has has learnt no lessons from this.

He is no longer an outsider whom punters might just bet on just to see how he goes. He has a record and it is bad.

His ads such as the one with Fauci are lies and Fauci has called them out on it.

His campaign has no consistent them to it. It is all over the place but that is Trump.

The Senate is looking bad for Republicans. Iowa possibly the most prominent example. ( Wouldn't it be ironic if both Graham and McConnell lost their very safe seats!)

Trump is now hitting out anywhere now. today at Fauci. He does not apparently know Fauci has much more credibility than he does.) 

The debates rarely change votes but Trump was way over the top.

Trump getting the virus makes the virus the number one issue. It is a vote loser for trump.

Can I just finish that Trump was never a  politician and it is showing up big time at present. He is all over the place because he needs to make up a lot of ground and simply does not know what to do and thus is throwing a lot of what yanks call 'hail marys'

Coming into election day my advice is to examine 538 and Andrew Gelman very carefully.

Just remember the national polls were not wrong last time some state polls were and my guess they have had modifications made to them.

The Barrington declaration is a sham

 Brian Resnik from Vox tears apart the Barrington declaration.

We are lucky it is only supported by fringe dwellers.

It is as a yank medical specialist said legalised murder and he was right

Tyler Cowen on why he rejects it.

Around the Traps 16/10/20

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on the-federal-budget-reveals-an-ideology-that-is-set-to-kill-any-recovery-just-as-it-is-getting-started , more-australian-social-housing-is-the-obvious-answer-to-more-than-one-question
• Ross Gittins on budgets-easy-future-no-more-surpluses-lots-more-tax-cuts, innovative-two-class-tax-cut-with-dissapearing-cake
• Catherine Bennett on a-14-day-rolling-average-of-5-new-daily-cases-is-the-wrong-trigger-for-easing-melbourne-lockdown-lets-look-at-under-investigation-cases-instead
• Bruce Mountain on you-cant-trust-the-price-comparison-market-as-iselects-8-5-million-fine-shows
• Mark Rolfe on brand-gladys-how-icac-revelations-hurt-berejiklians-school-captain-image
• Catherine Bennett on where-did-victoria-go-so-wrong-with-contact-tracing-and-have-they-fixed-it
• John Quiggin on the-arithmetic-of-retirement-income-the-case-of-zero-interest-rates
• Croaking Cassandra on housing-the-reserve-bank-and-interest-rates, the-prc-and-our-politicians
• David Clune on a-long-history-of-political-corruption-in-nsw-and-the-downfall-of-mps-ministers-and-premiers
• Institutional economics on the-rba-steps-up
• renew economy on solar-power-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-says-iea
• Peter Davidson on in-defence-of-jobmaker-the-replacement-for-jobkeeper-not-perfect-but-much-to-like
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-yes-we-need-to-make-things-in-australia-but-not-like-in-the-past
• Rick Morton on war-refugees-moves-final-phase-onshore
• Hassan Vally on who-is-right-lockdowns-should-be-short-and-sharp-here-are-4-other-essential-covid-19-strategies

Northern America

• Sam Wang on three-fourths-of-biden-votes-will-be-cast-before-election-day
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-capital-punishment-trends, politics-and-attitudes-towards-vaccination, will-services-trade-lead-future-for-us
• Dan Crawford on epi-workers-health-insurance-premiums-are-rising-much-faster-than-wages
• Liz Zhou on cory-booker-amy-coney-barrett-hearing
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-iflation-eased-in-september
• Erin Hurley on reckoning-post-trump-america
• David Frum on last-exit-trump-autocracy
• Walter Shaub on trump-corruption-ransacking-republic
• John Cassidy on the-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-hearings-are-an-enlightening-sham
• Aaron Mak on hunter-biden-new-york-post-emails-scoop-computer-repair
• Andrew Prokop on hunter-biden-emails-giuliani

Europe

• long and variable on how-a-brexit-transition-end-and-covid19-compound
• Mainly Macro on the-anti-lockdown-crusade-gains-oxygen-from-the-governments-ineptitude
• Maximillian De Corten etal on europes-second-wave-is-worse-than-the-first-what-went-so-wrong-and-what-can-it-learn-from-countries-like-vietnam

Asia

• Bill Hayton on china-s-vision-sovereignty-next-world-order
• Bob Bowker on false-promise-regime-change
• Melissa Crouch on why-myanmar-s-elections-will-be-neither-free-fair-nor-safe
• Sam Roggeveen on north-korea-new-missile
• Said Sadat and Nasrat Sayed on afghanistan-and-iran-water-treaty-water-dispute
• Shannon Torrens on if-duterte-likes-his-human-rights-record-he-can-let-others-look
• Ursula Lindsy on jordans-endless-transition

Wonk

• Lewis Mitchell and James Bagrow on do-social-media-algorithms-erode-our-ability-to-make-decisions-freely-the-jury-is-out
• Tim Harford on how-quick-and-dirty-covid-tests-could-end-the-weariness
• John Quiggin on some-facts-and-claims-about-the-21st-century-economy
• and Then Theres Physics on honest-brokering
• renew economy on net-zero-targets-change-the-game-as-iea-hails-renewables-as-new-king-of-electricity
• Tyler Cowen on why-i-reject-the-great-barrington-declaration
• Nick Gruen on the-goods-of-politics-their-fate-in-the-modern-world
• the conversable economist on covid-19-risks-by-age

General

• the conversable economist on a-nobel-prize-for-auction-theory
• Nicole Lenoir-Jourdan on james-bond-is-more-than-a-sexist-secret-agent-he-is-a-fertility-god-a-dionysus-of-the-modern-era

Climate

• Bec Colvin on changing-narrative-climate-change
• Karin Kirk on bleak views of melting Antarctica
• Variable Variability on the deleted chapter on WHO guidance
• David Appell on noaa-warmest-september-in-their-records
• Moyhu on giss-september-global-up-by-013-from-august

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• response-to-a-question-about-a-reference-in-one-of-our-papers
  
• everybody-wants-to-be-jared-diamond
  
• dont-ever-change-social-psychology-youre-perfect-just-the-way-you-are
  
• more-on-martingale-property-of-probabilistic-forecasts-and-some-other-issues-with-our-election-model
  
• reading-as-a-window-into-other-cultures
  
• shes-wary-of-the-consensus-based-transparency-checklist-and-heres-a-paragraph-we-shouldve-added-to-that-zillion-authored-paper
  
• calibration-problem-in-our-election-forecast
  
• reference-for-the-claim-that-you-need-16-times-as-much-data-to-estimate-interactions-as-to-estimate-main-effects
  
• Kaiser Fung on political-headline-decrying-politics
• Tim Harford on can-you-put-a-number-on-it

Econometrics

• Stochastic Trend on climate-econometrics-and-carbon-budget

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews) 

• why-competition-is-good
  

vox wonk

• relative-performance-evaluation-sabotage-and-collusion
  
• patterns-invoicing-currency-global-trade
  
• face-mask-mandates-slowed-spread-covid-19-canada
  
• coupling-education-and-innovation-policies-economic-growth
  
• global-connectedness-market-power-and-firms-resilience-domestic-covid-19-shocks
  
• low-labour-shortages-can-help-explain-sluggish-wage-growth
  
• switzerland-high-intergenerational-income-mobility-despite-low-educational-mobility
  
• inflation-targeting-india-interim-assessment
  
• international-dimension-central-bank-digital-currency
  
• increasing-market-concentration-europe-more-likely-be-sign-strength-cause-concern
  
• sandboxes-and-role-policy-experimentation
  
• legal-air-cover
  
• effectiveness-rd-tax-incentives-oecd-economies
  
• how-us-coronavirus-aid-package-has-affected-household-spending
  
• borrowing-costs-after-debt-relief
  
• pandemics-and-inequality-historical-overview
  
• pulling-together-or-pulling-apart-eu-trade-and-development-policy
  
• globalisation-and-pandemics
  

Our Gladys again

 It got only worst yesterday for our Gladys.

Her lover of five years confessed to crimes yet not only did she not know she at no time urged him away from, this future.

Lets face it on one phone call it was obvious he wasn't just on the way to misfortune ( euphuism) he was bursting down that way.

Did she urge Daryl to stop. Perhaps retire and live on his tax free pension and do what he wanted to.

Nope. did she put her foot down and say if he didn't change his ways the 'close personal relationship' was over. Nope. Indeed she was still with him when he was in disgrace having to resign from parliament.

So if we are to believe she did not know what her Daryl was up to. This means as I said previously Daryl did not say anything about his business ventures in bed. He would be the first man to only talk about it on the telephone.

What is worse for me she never ever urged him to get back to the straight and narrow.

She had no moral compass to guide her.

Sorry but bye Gladys.

Whoopsy I should have added she was terrible at her press conference. The pressure is definitely getting to her

NCIS revisited plus a few more shows

I can now write about NCIS as I have watched all the episodes until Tony leaves.

Before this i had only watched post Tony episodes.

That is why I was so ( rightly0 dismissive) of the series.

In chronological order  The first two seasons the writers really di not know what they were doing. Were they trying to line tony and Kate or not. There was no chemistry within the team. Tony's character was all over the place.

Somehow it got to a third season and it all started. the  introduction of Zhiva was the catalyst. Tony's character changed and Michael Weatherly became the star of the series. I said before he reminded me of Doug McClure in the Virginian. Mostly playing a fun guy but could do serious when needed.  Mark Harmon who is a limited actor became very good indeed all the major characters leaped out at you.

Overall the characters of tony and Zhiva were great. Playing people who were interested in each other but di not want to show it. the only criticism here is it went on too long. In the real world one of the two people dip their toes into the pond and takes a chance.

This brings us to the next problem. Tony and Zhiva were so close the writers had no idea of what to write when she leaves the show for very specious reasons.

Tony is despondent at times at other times he is the same care free pre Zhiva he was. It is utterly absurd. He has lost the love of his life. He rarely acts like it. Also important is the fact tony was offered his own team in season 3 yet here he is years later and he has not moved on. why?

The writers had made both of them so close they di not realise if Zhiva leaves then Tony had to as well.

Whoopsy I should add three things. Mike Franks, Gibbs old boss, Agent Fornel from the FBI ( the actor was in Hill St Blues) and  Abby from coastguard are my favourite recurring characters.  Abby from Forensics has more skills than anyone I know. Forensics, computers, examining cars are all in her domain. Not believable.

This is where the series  loses its bearings.

The new characters are quite boring and in most cases make no sense. The latino actor is full of himself it is laughable. Harmon goes back to his limited acting again. I do repeat that the writers have no idea of women concerning the character of Gibbs. The man has been married 4 time engaged 5 times. women would be very wary of him in real life. The ages of the women attracted to Gibbs is also 'interesting'.

I do find it interesting they went to when Tony leaves and then back to season one.

Anne with an E gets much better in its third season after losing its bearings in season 2.

The coroner is a series I watched previously on the ABC. It now back on commercial television. Its major problem is that whilst the major characters are interesting the minor characters are not.

FBI is okay but lacks something I cannot put my finger on. The boss went from a lady in her early 60s to one in her early 40s. A bit young me thinks but the writers did not think this was even a problem so so answer to why. A pity because the actress is one of my favourites.( Jo Martinez from Forever)

My roblem is now there is very little on TV to watch!!

Gladys must go

 Oh dear our Gladys has appeared before ICAC and it appears truth is stranger than fiction. See HERE for example.

She never told anyone of this relationship although the Ministerial code says she should have.

For Gladys it  an earthshaking moment. A man thought highly of her. It would not occur very often as she is not attractive. This can be the only explanation why it took her so long to realise the truth of the matter concerning Maguire. She knew he was going down the wrong path but did nothing.

He is the archetype of the greedy politician who is only in it to make as much money as he could. He always had grandiose schemes to kame money but few came to fruition.

This never bothered her at all. It can only be explained by the fact she must have been a very lonely woman. She simply rationalised his behaviour away. As I said previously she never tried to change his ways. Indeed at one stage on the phone she says don't tell me. how revealing.

Imagine what was said in bed! It is simply incomprehensible he di not rattle off his get rich schemes to her.  He may have been a bad rat but he was her bad rat.

Even when Maguire had to resign from Parliament the lights never went on.  She only stopped the relationship once the matters were sent to ICAC.

It never occurred to her Maguire was using her. When the relationship started she was deputy leader of the Liberal party in NSW.  Why would Maguire ,who is no chick magnet, pursue her.  She is unattractive, hardly an intellectual giant but very important person in the liberal party. She was a mover and shaker in the parliamentary party and seen as the heir apparent to Baird. 

From the phone calls we heard Maguire never asked for special treatment but Gladys knew exactly where he was situated. This is possibly the only smart thing Maguire did.   As I said just imagine what they tlaked about in bed with each other. Maguire made sure She knew how each 'project' was going so it was always at the back of her mind. She never told anyone of this conflict of interest because presumably of her high moral standing (sarc).

Yet she never told anyone of her relationship at all.  In essence she wood-ducked a lot of people and her judgement is shown to be terrible.

This all means to me she should resign. That there is no heir apparent is irrelevant.

I should also say I found it fascinating to compare our gladys with Julia Gillard.

Neither woman had relationships with married men UNTIL that marriage was in essence over yet Gillard was labelled a family wrecker. Only the Murdoch press could do that.

Samantha Maiden is on the money