The UK's problems

 Oh dear the poms certainly know how to stuff things up.

• Present Discontents  Thanks Tyler
• Noah Smith 
• Mainly Macro 

To make an obvious point the conservatives have no leadership at all at present.

My son has entered the property market

 Yesterday My son was successful in buying a townhouse which is near us. He had been quite diligent in building up his savings so he had much more then was needed for getting a loan.

He now has to payback the loan which at this stage he also can do easily.

I am pleased he has gotten a place for himself. It does help if you get married for example. I am also pleased it is nearby. It helps him both with his job and with his refereeing in winter. It is also good for us as he is nearby.

All in all a significant day.

Cricket season has started

 Cricket season started on the weekend. I was a bit unlucky. On Saturday we got to 31 overs after one interruption when the rain came. Too many puddles meant no more cricket.

My game on Sunday di not occur as one team forfeited. Damn it it was a glorious day for cricket.

This coming week does not look too good. Quite a bit of rain could make it highly problematic.

Still the season has started and that is a good thing.

Around the Traps 23/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robin Smit and Nick Sirawski on we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health
• Mark Wooden on despite-high-hopes-multi-employer-bargaining-is-unlikely-to-get-wages-moving
• renew economy on wind-and-solar-records-tumble-again-as-coal-and-fossil-fuel-hit-another-low, labor-modeller-says-plan-for-free-credits-could-kill-integrity-of-safeguard-scheme, origin-announces-exit-from-gas-exploration-starting-with-beetaloo-basin, safeguard-mechanism-what-to-make-of-the-industry-average-baseline-scheme,fortescue-to-spend-9-2-billion-on-wind-solar-battery-and-hydrogen-to-get-to-net-zero-by-2030,report-underscores-abject-failure-of-safeguards-mechanism-calls-for-big-polluters-to-pay, consumers-reap-rewards-of-100-pct-renewables-as-wind-and-solar-farms-hand-back-windfall-profits, theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it
• Manuel Esperon-Rodriguiez et al on climate-change-threatens-up-to-100-of-trees-in-australian-cities-and-most-urban-species-worldwide
• Ross Gittins on dont-worry-about-inflation-punters-will-pay-for-it, a-home-of-ones-own-so-good-only-the-rich-need-apply
• Croaking Cassandra on a-canary-in-the-coalmine, we-deserve-better
• Peter Martin on the-mint-and-note-printing-australia-make-billions-for-australia-but-it-could-be-at-risk
• Greg Jericho on workers-did-not-cause-australias-inflation-woes-but-they-will-be-the-ones-to-sacrifice
• Andrew Blakers on theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it
• Adrian Beaumont on how-victorian-labors-failure-on-upper-house-electoral-reform-undermines-democracy
• Mathew Klugman on as-the-2022-aflm-season-comes-to-a-close-the-game-must-ask-itself-some-difficult-questions-especially-on-racism
• Institutional Economics on the-rbas-internal-review-of-its-bond-purchase-programs
• Jenny Gordon on memo-to-the-productivity-commission-fixing-inequality-is-the-key-to-productivity

Northern America

• noahopinion on no-the-us-is-not-a-poor-society-with-some-very-rich-people, the-end-of-the-pandemic, the-long-march-of-the-yimbys
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-texas-twitter-facebook-youtube-social-media-fifth-circuit-netchoice-paxton, donald-trump-special-master-aileen-cannon-11th-circuit-supreme-court-mar-a-lago-classified
• Jenny Blair on yale-study-more-than-335000-lives-could-have-been-saved-during-pandemic-if-us-had-universal-health-care Thanks Brad
• Daniel Immerwahr on Polany-in-the-US Thanks Brad
• Joe Connason on kenneth-starr Thanks Brad
• Robert Ayson on what-does-biden-mean-taiwan
• Aja Romano on adnan-syed-free-maryland-baltimore-criminal-justice
• Jeet Heer on gop-right-military-coup, graham-abortion-gop-right
• The message box on why-gop-voters-love-aholes Thanks Brad
• public notice on desantis-marthas-vineyard-vice-signaling thanks Brad
• Andrew Prokop on trump-lawsuit-new-york-attorney-general
• John Cassidy on why-is-trump-openly-embracing-qanon-now
• Geoffrey Skelley on latino-voters-shifted-right-in-2020-what-does-that-mean-for-arizona-and-nevada-this-year
• Tyler Cowen on the-marthas-vineyard-saga

Europe

• Tim Harford on my-former-tutorial-partner-is-now-prime-minister-heres-my-advice-to-her
• Christopher Michaelson on are-the-wests-sanctions-against-russia-actually-working
• Ellen Ioaness on russia-military-failures-ukraine
• noahopinion on cautious-optimism-about-ukraines-economy
• Bermet Talent on war-ukraine-pushing-central-asia-away-russia
• Dasniel Drezner on russia-ukraine-china-technology-west-war
• Mainly Macro on going-for-growth
• slow boring on russias-military-and-economic-strategy Thanks Brad
• Steffen Wolf and Tatyana Matyrenko on ukraine-war-putin-calls-up-more-troops-and-threatens-nuclear-option-in-a-speech-which-ups-the-ante-but-shows-russias-weakness
• Jen Kirby on russia-mobilization-war-ukraine-nuclear-threats-putin-speech
• Elliot Cohen on zelensky-ukraine-west-military-aid-supplies
• Miriam Ronzoni on why-i-am-not-as-worried-about-the-upcoming-italian-elections-as-everybody-tells-me-i-should-be

Asia

• Michael Clarke on china-s-ungainly-balancing-act-russia
• Prarthana Sen on concern-sri-lankans-fleeing-india-amid-economic-crisis
• David Brewster on rohingya-issue-requires-regional-solution

Wonk

• noahopinion on no-the-us-didnt-outsource-our-carbon-emissions-to-china, lovecraftian-intelligence
• Jenny Gordon on digital-finance-makes-international-cooperation-even-more-important
• Clare Arnott et al on even-mild-covid-raises-the-chance-of-heart-attack-and-stroke-what-to-know-about-the-risks-ahead
• renew economy on wind-power-is-getting-better-and-better-and-providing-more-value-to-the-grid
• Menzie Chinn on world-bank-is-a-global-recession-imminent, us-euro-area-and-china-gdp-over-the-pandemic-and-recovery
• Tyler Cowen on the-quantity-theory-of-money-is-underrated

General

• Katarina Miljkovic on for-the-first-time-robots-on-mars-found-meteorite-impact-craters-by-sensing-seismic-shock-waves
• Oscar Davis on explainer-socrates-and-the-life-worth-living
• Janice Crerar on curious-kids-how-is-lava-made

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-role-of-mathematical-modelling
• Skeptical Science on super charged summer of climate extremes
• Real Climate on a-ceres-of-fortunate-events
• Mark Cliffe on extreme-weather-fat-tail-risks-climate-change Thanks Brad
• Daniel Melino and Gemma Ware on thwaites-glacier-the-melting-antarctic-monster-of-sea-level-rise-podcast
• Alexander Cheesman et al on termites-love-global-warming-the-pace-of-their-wood-munching-gets-significantly-faster-in-hotter-weather

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-economic-pit-and-the-political-pendulum-predicting-midterm-elections
  
• whats-the-origin-of-two-truths-and-a-lie
  
• some-thoughts-on-academic-research-and-advocacy
  
• the-youre-only-allowed-to-publish-2-or-3-journal-articles-per-year-rule
  
• ted-talk-attitudes-reach-new-mexico-county-commission
  
• fill-in-the-blank-leads-to-more-citations-junk-science-and-unavailable-data-at-the-european-heart-journal
  

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on bayesian statistics data sciences and new risks, using home made statistics

Dianne Coyle

• goliaths-everywhere
  
• ways-of-seeing
  
• regiments-of-women-economists
  

vox wonk

• why-people-stay-poor
  
• africas-contribution-world-co2-emissions
  
• making-sense-consumers-inflation-expectations
  
• effect-macroeconomic-uncertainty-firm-decisions
  
• energy-costs-views-leading-economists-windfall-taxes-and-consumer-price-caps
  
• early-lessons-social-skills-and-self-control-bring-lifelong-benefits
  
• information-eliminates-female-students-preference-female-mentors
  
• assessment-damages-ukraines-productive-capacity
  
• sex-ratios-and-conflict-evidence-paraguay
  
• simple-economics-consumer-subsidies-natural-gas-and-why-it-matters-putins-war
  

Is the budget in rude health?

 The Treasurer and the Minister for finance announced the final budget outcome.

It is well down from what was announced at budget time and when PEFO came out.

The main reason but not the only reasons is that commodity prices ( mainly iron ore) are way higher than forecast in the budget. It appears few journalists realise finance insists on iron ore prices so low that there will almost always be an upgrade to budget outcomes.

The improvement has been all cyclical. There has been no structural improvement. This can be seen by the fact that Australia is at full employment and strong commodity prices are leading to large tax increases ( something that Wayne Swan  never saw).

Herein lies the problem for the ALP. Their child care policy will lead to a deterioration on the structural deficit so they have to cut in other areas quite a bit to ensure budget repair is on course.

We shall see next month whether they have done this.  They do have a problem. Too little reduction in the structural deficit will lead to higher interest rates. too much reduction could lead to a recession given interest rates are rising as well.

SA will be soon running on renewables only

 THIS article came out a while ago so it is aged but is important.

Experience has told AEMO that SA does not need as much back up as they previously thought. At its worst there were 4 gas fired generators ready to go just in case. If you read the article this has changed there will be soon only one gas fired generator.

This will change over time as the new windmills can generate electricity even in wind droughts. In essence no more intermittent electricity.

This is all exciting stuff. Couple this with changing fuel economy standards and it should be a breeze getting to 43%.  By the way electric cars can produce enough electricity for four days for a house,

The queen's death has been over the top

 I get some people are mournful about the Queen's death but it has been well over the top.

to give you but one example. The funeral was over almost all the TV channels so I retreated to the radio but there it was on the radio. It was on all three ABC stations. AM this morning except for one last item was all about the funeral. This is a disgrace.

So obviously Putin has done nothing since the death, no-one has dies from covid since the death etc. You get my point. It has been hard to get any news apart from the queen's death and it has been relentless. The ratings do not show everyone wants to see or hear about it. The ABC has been as bad as any news organisation on this subject.

Every news organisation should have a good hard look at how they covered this issue.