It is time to examine One Nation's rise.
In some polls they are more popular than the Liberals. As the late Julius Sumner Miller would say why is this so?
Firstly where is it occurring? It is mostly in the regions and it is mostly national party seats at risk. The people who have switched their votes are low educated and low income people mostly male.
In some ways it is understandable. The coalition has broken up twice since the last election so why vote for either party when they are fighting each other. Herein lies a great irony. No party has infighting like One Nation.
We can be pretty sure they have not switched voted because of policies because no-one knows what policies One Nation supports except a racist immigration program. Multi-culturisn is not as popular in the regions and sometimes has not reached them.
History shows it is unlikely One Nation can thrive. When they talk they are incoherent. They are reliant on Hanson who looks very old. Now they are rising in the polls they will have to produce policies.
Also important is where liberal preferences go if they finish behind one nation on first preferences. Will they direct preferences to obvious morons?
Let us assume One Nation adopts policies similar to the Nationals. In the past two elections this has cost the liberals big time in the cities where it matters.
Put me in the unlikely camp on whether one nation thrives. They will get more media exposure and thus more times to show they have little idea of what to do. At present they only get exposed to 'friendly' media. ( Funny how Gerry Henderson hasn't noticed that!). Watch out when they are regularly on mainstream media.
There will be bust ups as they always occur. most people think realistically they are smarter than Hanson and do not like the grifting of some in one nation.
So yes I am a sceptic they will become the leading conservative party. In theory it should hurry up for the Liberals and Nationals to bury the hatched
