Farrer could be interesting

 John Hawkins says Farrer could tell us where australian politics is heading in the near future.

Antony Green tells us all about the lecorate HERE and HERE.

We shall get a four way fight. The Liberals who currently hold it  after they won it when Tim fischer retired. The Nationals who want it back although it was a Liberal seat before that.. One Nation who believe they are on a roll and an Independent ( no I do not believe two independents).

Okay let us make a guess. Green preferences will go mostly to the ALP unless they think they can crown the Independent.  One Nation will gain at the expense of both the Liberals and also the National party but mainly the latter.

ALP  preferences will go to the independent. This will put her into second place. The National preferences wil ggo mainly to One nation.

The Liberal vote will be down because of the Liberals knifing Ley and antipathy towards Taylor. some votes will go to one nation but also towards the independent.

Thus the contest on final preferences will again be between the Liberal candidate and the Independent. Thus I would not be surprised if the Independent wins however I say that with no confidence.

The West Wing

 I am using youtube quite a bit these days. The rest is history, the rest is politics, legal and political issues in the USA , the invasio0n of ukraine as well as music makes it essential viewing.

One thing that came up out of nowhere was the west wing.

It was one of my favourite series.

Fabulous cast, sensational writing, characters that are good and bad. I could go on but you get the point.

If you have not watched the serries then do so. It is clearly the BEST US series I have ever watched.

Here is a sample

Bob Dylan

 Knocking on Heaven's door come from one of my top 10 Westerns, Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid, which Bob wrote the soundtrack.

but I prefer the studio version

Around the Traps 13/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adriahn Beaumont on why-preferential-voting-is-superior-to-first-past-the-post
• Jago Dodson and Liam Davies on how-cutting-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-could-help-rebalance-the-housing-market
• Kieran Hardy on is-australias-terrorism-definition-still-fit-for-purpose
• Bronwyn Cumbo on can-australia-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-data-centres
• Andrea Carson and Finley Watson on yes-one-nations-poll-numbers-are-climbing-but-major-party-status-let-alone-government-is-still-a-long-way-off
• Simon Bronitt on was-the-violent-sydney-protest-avoidable-and-what-can-police-and-demonstrators-learn
• Luke Hartigan on what-exactly-is-inflation-and-are-interest-rates-the-only-option-for-dealing-with-it
• Antony Green on the-success-of-local-independents-kooyong
• Greg Jericho on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• Mick Ryan on australia-s-new-national-defence-strategy-must-embrace-adaptation-warfare-evolves
• Tony Barry on sussan-ley-is-todays-scapegoat-but-she-was-never-the-liberals-core-problem
• Peter Breadon and Molly Chapman on bulk-billing-rates-are-up-but-theres-more-to-delivering-the-best-possible-care

OZ Climate

• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• home-battery-numbers-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-rebate-launch-as-installers-take-a-beat
  
• pumped-hydro-is-vital-to-the-future-grid-so-why-does-gas-exploration-get-all-the-tax-benefits
  
• dont-reinvent-the-wheel-big-investors-fear-nem-reform-could-backfire-on-wind-industry
  
• plan-to-increase-fixed-network-costs-will-take-from-the-poor-give-to-the-rich-and-slash-returns-on-pv-and-batteries
  
• australias-key-emissions-reduction-policy-is-doing-a-great-job-of-safeguarding-gas-producers
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-learns-how-to-make-more-money-out-of-its-customers-and-big-battery-fleet
  
• moves-afoot-to-bring-balcony-solar-to-australia-and-new-wave-of-products-has-batteries-included
  
• origin-says-big-batteries-playing-well-with-ageing-fossils-but-wont-rule-out-new-gas-peakers
  
• australias-clean-energy-transition-has-been-powered-by-people-solar-for-renters-is-the-next-chapter
  
• the-little-battery-that-could-pave-the-way-for-ageing-coal-generators-to-be-shut-down-on-schedule
  
• Nick Whiterod et al on the-lower-murray-is-officially-on-life-support-will-we-save-it
• Adam Morton on there-will-never-be-a-better-time-to-revisit-carbon-pricing-in-australia-but-does-labor-have-the-stomach-to-make-polluters-pay

Northern America

• one first on 208-the-fifth-circuit-jumps-the-immigration-detention-shark Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Rauch on america-fascism-trump-maga-ice Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-debasement-trade-meets-the-warsh-steepener
• Grant Wyeth on exploiting-old-gripes-trump-s-grab-51st-state
• noahpinion on why-americas-extremes-will-both-fail
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101-part-ii-the-global- financial-crisis -and-its-aftermath , seduced-by-the-louis-xiv-treatment , no-ai-doesnt-justify-lower-interest , the-banality-of-maga-evil , making-america-stagnate-again , the-maga-bubble-is-imploding
• Peter Wehner on evangelicals-trump-national-prayer-breakfast
• Eric Levitz on trump-midterms-2026-rigged-election-fulton-county-gabbard-bondi
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-military-harvard-donald-trump
• the conversable economist on asian-americans-two-alternate-histories , us-budget-deficits-spitting-into-the-wind
• home and away on the-end-of-shame
• Umair Irfan on epa-climate-endangerment-finding-trump-coal-fuel-economy
• Bill Haskell on costs-vs-benefits-for-clean-air
• Ricardo Hausman on america-credibility-problem-could-lead-to-rupture-if-not-addressed
• Eric Levitz on trump-doj-democrats-indictment-national-guard-ice

Europe

• Sam Power on the-british-public-has-lost-faith-in-politics-the-peter-mandelson-scandal-must-be-a-wake-up-call-for-keir-starmer
• Jeremy Horder on what-exactly-is-misconduct-in-public-office-and-could-peter-mandelson-be-convicted
• Imran Khalid on rebranding-europe-s-energy-transition-climate-policy-survival
• Joy Neumeyer on poland-halfway-to-democracy-new-politics-of-poland
• Simon Schuster on zelensky-trump-peace-deal-ukraine-russia
• renew economy on renewables-account-for-more-than-55-pct-of-spains-energy-mix-in-2025-and-in-first-month-of-2026

Asia

• Aswin Lin on why-taiwan-dome-won-t-survive-chinese-attack
• Adam Simpson on japans-rock-star-leader-now-has-the-political-backing-to-push-a-bold-agenda-will-she-deliver
• noahpinion on the-takaichi-era-begins-for-real
• Gerhard Hofstaeder et al on rohingya-boats-out-mind-still-coming
• Syong-Hyon Lee on zhang-youxia-fallen-general
• Peter Chai and Willy Jou on power-surprise-how-takaichi-s-snap-election-delivered-ldp-landslide
• Mehmet Ozalp on how-irans-current-unrest-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1979-revolution

Wonk

• Noah Carl on why-are-intelligent-people-more-liberal Thanks Nick
• existential politics on the-tragedy-of-the-centre-left Thanks Nick
• cosmos institute on on-the-noble-uses-of-ai Thanks Nick
• Andy Masely on a-list-of-other-catastrophes-that-are-probably-fake Thanks Nick
• Jason Burke on 1970s-extremism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on when-psychologists-mislead-us
• Tyler Cowen on bryan-caplan-on-immigration-backlash
• the conversable economist on what-are-folk-economic-beliefs
• Doug Muir on the-stone-pillars-of-the-sons-of-seth
• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-marshall-thinking-clearly-about-the-global-authoritarian-movement
• Samir Ramzy on sudans-latest-peace-plan-whats-in-it-and-does-it-stand-a-chance

General

• Robert King on oh-hedy-days-of-youth Thanks Nick
• Janet Cetinkaya and Ian Kidd on why-aristotle-would-hate-valentines-day-and-his-five-steps-to-love

Climate

• real climate on koonins-continuing-calumnies , the-climate-science-reference-they-dont-want-judges-to-read
• Umair Irfan on energy-abundance-access-electricty-progress-africa-oceania-energy-poverty
• Damian Carrington on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• anti
  
•  hey-heres-100000-down-the-drain
• review-of-string-theory-book-from-2004
  
• a-consensus-but-its-a-consensus-of-uncertainty
  
• my-talk-this-wed-noon-at-the-columbia-statistics-department-student-seminar
  
• survey-statistics-more-on-recalled-vote
  
• sethi-on-betting-on-geopolitical-violence
  
• the-new-york-young-republican-club-but-this-time-with-no-butt-plugs-or-dildos
  
• what-a-multiverse-good-for-anyway
  
• our-sanctimonious-overlords-kenneth-starr-edition
  
• Kaiser Fung on snow-math , alternatives-to-radar-chart-1
• statschat on coffee-brain , briefly
• freakometrics on  natural disasters avoidable or unpredictable disasters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on assessing-brink-lindseys-the-permanent-problem
• Tyler Cowen on oliver-kim-reviews-how-africa-works

Vox Wonk

• generative-ai-german-firms-diffusion-costs-and-expected-economic-effects
  
•  future-under-glass
• showing-alps-economic-value-davos
  
• immigration-restrictions-and-natives-intergenerational-mobility-evidence-1920s-us 
  
• ai-investment-gdp-growth-ecosystem-view
  
• mapping-contours-chinese-policy-transmission-home-and-abroad
  
• when-war-weakens-democracy
  

If Angus Taylor is the answer then you have asked the wrong question

 The Opposition is in a real pickle. The last election was one of their worst ever defeats. Given the government's lack of achievements and their uninspiring leader then the reason surely has to be with the Opposition.

One view is the Nationals has supported policies that cost votes in the cities. I suspect this is on the money.

The next is the rise of one nation and the nationals response has been to go further to the populist right.

The Liberals have a decision to make. Is the future to regain the centre from the ALP or march further to the right.

Taylor thus far has yet to offer any solutions to the Liberals future. He is far from eloquest. His ministerial career has been poor, He frequently said base load power and dispatchable power  was the same thing. It aint. Coal fired power is base load power but is not dispatchable.

Ley has not had a fair go although in politics that is par for the course.

Answers to the last election loss are all over the place. Hastie for example wants to protect industry and so build it up. Others influenced by sky after dark want to move further to the right.

Ley clearly wants to move to the centre but has a disunited party.

Replacing her with Taylor does not fill me with any confidence. In normal times you would expect the liberals to have a largish swing towards them in the next election simply because of the last result. In an ironic move the surge in one nation may obviate this.

My only advice to the liberals is to move to the centre.

It has all been very sad

 It was a disgrace that people could not march to parliament house in sydney. however once the court made the decision that should have been that. no-one came out of that looking good.

THe pro=palestinian people gain showed no political nous.

The police looked highly undisciplined and suffering from a lack of training. clearly they escaladed things. They were there to do the opposite.

However the person who came out of the whole mess the worse was Chris Minns. The legislation clearly was not needed. There had been no violence previously. It was the legislation that promoted the violence. Minns clearly and consistently conflated the bondi massacre and pro-palestine marches. As yet he has asserted this without a shred of evidence. Does he actually believe this nonsense? Is he merely succumbing to pressure from the jewish lobby?

Allied to this was the assertion made on four corners by an ex-asio agent believing the two terrorists were radicalised a lot earlier ie  well before Israel's genocidal behaviour towards palestinians.

I might end by saying there is nothing wrong with asserting globalise the intifada. The intifada can ONLY occur in one specific geographical place. It aint sydney. If anyone expresses the phrase they are merely saying publicise the intifada so palestinians get justice. to say it explicitly supports against jews is absurd and misinformation. 

Herzog should NEVER have been invited

 Albo invited the Israeli President to Australia. It showed poor judgement.

It involved two major problems.

Firstly the incident had NOTHING to do with Palestinians or Israel's genocidal actions on them. Herzog's disgraceful words saying all Palestinians are responsible for October 7 is to all extents irrelevant to what occurred at Bondi. However it will undoubtedly get tangled up with it.

Secondly it will exacerbate deadly tropes about Jews and where their loyalties lie.