Have Economists dropped the ball on climate Change?

Andrew Oswald and Nicholas Stern believe they have in their provocative piece on Vox wonk as I call it. It really is a wonderful site.

Gladys Lui problems explained

We wrote last week about Gladys Lui and the number of questions she must answer.

She was a member of at least communist China front organisations. One very important and influential committee was for eleven years. ( see Clive Hamilton's article in previous article.)

Why would a person who claimed to move from Hong Kong because of poor circumstances be  on such committees. Just remember she was invited onto these committees to promote Communist China.
We can only assume because she built a good network of very wealthy people from Hog Kong. To be very wealthy in Hong Kong you MUST be good relations with communist China.

This also relates to her fundraising for the Liberal party. Why did the Liberal party return funds because of where the money came from.

This is also related why the previous Prime Minister elected ( pun intended) to bypass a find raiser held in Chisholm by Gladys Lui

Lui has not responded in parliament nor has she released a statement rather  Morrison's own department has on her behalf.

This begs the question of why?

The answer is IF Lui  responded in Parliament  to the allegations and it was shown to be false she would be forced to resign from Parliament. Also Morrison can always say he will not answer anything to do with ASIO relation to Lui.
Morrison is betting people will get bored with this issue if nothing more is released i]on this issue and then move on.

We shall see. As both Michelle Grattan and Katherine Murphy attest there is nothing racist or even a smear in asking questions about Gladys Lui

Around the Traps 16/9/19

It is time yet again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Harry Hendon on the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia
• Dylan McConnell on australia-has-met-its-renewable-energy-target-but-dont-pop-the-champagne
• Croaking Cassandra on services-exports-another-nz-weak-spot, hush-dont-be-so-explicit
• David Peetz on theres-an-obvious-reason-wages-arent-growing-but-you-wont-hear-it-from-treasury-or-the-reserve-bank
• Phillipa Matyr on how-rivalries-between-doctors-and-pharmacists-turned-into-the-turf-war-we-see-today
• renew economy on do-australias-coal-generators-need-another-subsidy, why-australias-biggest-battery-said-no-to-an-offer-too-good-to-refuse, aemo-slashes-output-of-five-big-solar-farms-by-half-due-to-voltage-issues
• Greg Jericho on what-if-interest-rate-cuts-fuel-house-prices-but-nothing-else
• Dale Dominey-Howes on climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires
• Troy Baisden on climate-explained-regenerative-farming-can-help-grow-food-with-less-impact
• Peter Saunders on another-official-australian-report-has-been-doctored-to-gloss-over-rising-inequality
• Kevin Bonham on did-a-late-switch-off-from-shorten-cause-labor-to-lose
• Clive Hamilton on why-gladys-liu-must-answer-to-parliament-about-alleged-links-to-the-chinese-government
• Robert Ayson on why-did-nz-opposition-leader-jump-shark-china
• John Quiggin on nuclear-power-should-be-allowed-in-australia-but-only-with-a-carbon-price
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-all-this-overinflated-talk-about-an-index-fund-bubble-is-very-passive-aggressive
• The Kouk on bitterly-disappointing-we-are-seeing-a-once-in-a-generation-policy-failure

Northern America

• New Deal Deomocrat on scenes-from-the-august-jobs-report-2
• Alex Ward on john-bolton-trump-war-north-korea-iran
• David Graham on trumps-national-security-adviser-impossible-job
• Stephen Hurst on what-john-boltons-exit-reveals-about-donald-trumps-foreign-policy-priorities
• Sean Collins on wilbur-ross-threat-fire-noaa-officials-trump-tweet-sharpiegate-scandal
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-above-2%-in-August
• Tim Duy on gearing-up-for-a-rate-cut Thanks Brad
• Tyler Cowen on what-kind-of-industrial-policy-does-america-need
• Peter Conti-Brown on what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell Thanks Mark
• Barry Eichengreen on dudley-new-york-fed-2020-election Thanks Mark
• Robert Barro on trump-trade-policy-mercantilism Thanks Mark
• FRB Minneapolis on the-region/do-cash-transfers-work Thanks Mark
• the conversable economist on is-us-economy-having-engels-pause

Europe

• Ben Wellings on a-dogs-brexit-johnsons-missteps-about-to-send-weary-voters-to-another-election-as-the-eu-divorce-gets-ugly
• Mainly Macro on different-kinds-of-fiscal-stimulus, some-observations-on-tactical-voting-in-the-forthcoming-general-election
• stumbling and mumbling on on-tory-paradoxes

Asia

• Max Walden on fugitive-preacher-ignites-controversy-malaysia
• Ian Hall on narendra-modi-frequent-flyer
• Croaking Cassandra on china-and-japan
• Barkley Rosser on mbs-consolidates-immediate-family
• Zack Beauchamp on Israel-netanyahu-jordan-valley-annex-election-september
• Adnan Aamir on not-such-great-game
• Ian Parmeter on will-israeli-voters-give-bibi-get-out-jail-card

Wonk

• Tim Harford on if-you-want-people-do-to-something-make-it-easy-richard-thaler-has-lunch-with-the-ft
• the grumpy economist on low-bond-yields, more-on-low-long-term-interest-rates
• Anu Anwar on why-us-and-its-allies-should-keep-asean-centre
• Elliot Zaagman on cat-videos-meet-big-brother
• the conversable economist on universal-basic-income-combined-with-what-else, latin-america-missing-firms-slow-growth-and-inequality
• Spencer England on spencer-gafo-2
• stumbling and mumbling on doubting-disaster-capitalism
• Roger Farmer on a-requiem-for-the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level
• Thomas Piketty on what-is-a-fair-pension-system Thanks Mark
• Raghuram Rajan on trump-trade-war-damage Thanks Mark
• Robert Shiller on recession-fear-talk Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on great-expectations-the-economic-power-of-news-about-the-future Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on the-economic-effects-of-trade-policy-uncertainty

General

• Abas Marzaei on where-woke-came-from-and-why-marketers-should-think-twice-before-jumping-on-the-social-activism-bandwagon
• Lucyna Kedziora-Chudczer on curious-kids-why-does-saturn-have-rings
• Chris Bertram on haters-gonna-hate
• Sandra Jones on we-need-to-stop-perpetuating-the-myth-that-children-grow-out-of-autism
• Angeloc Tsiaras on how-we-detected-water-on-a-potentially-habitable-exoplanet-for-the-first-time

Climate

• Chris Wilde on renewable-technologies-facts-fiction-and-current-developments
• Taha Chaichi and Silvia Tavares on urban-growth-heat-islands-humidity-climate-change-the-costs-multiply-in-tropical-cities
• and Then Theres Physics on propagation-of-nonsense, propagation-of-nonsense-part-ii
• John C Day and Scott Herron on the-great-barrier-reef-is-in-trouble-there-are-a-whopping-45-reasons-why
• BOM blog on the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmerheres-what-it-means-for-australia

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heres-why-you-need-to-bring-a-rubber-band-to-every-class-you-teach-every-time
• heres-a-puzzle-why-did-the-u-s-doctor-tell-me-to-drink-more-wine-and-the-french-doctor-tell-me-to-drink-less
• was-thomas-kuhn-evil-i-dont-really-care
• i-hate-bayes-factors-when-theyre-used-for-null-hypothesis-significance-testing
• exchange-with-deborah-mayo-on-abandoning-statistical-significance
• lets-try-this-again-it-is-nonsense-to-say-that-we-dont-know-whether-a-specific-weather-event-was-affected-by-climate-change-its-not-just-wrong-its-nonsensical
• valley-of-gladwell
• my-math-is-rusty
• deterministic-thinking-dichotomania
• i-think-that-science-is-mostly-brezhnevs-its-rare-to-see-a-gorbachev-who-will-abandon-a-paradigm-just-because-it-doesnt-do-the-job-also-moving-beyond-naive-falsificationism
• free range statistics on mass-shootings-oz
• statschat on think-of-a-number-and-multiply-it-by-260000000
• Kaiser Fung on data-science-the-missing-pieces-functions
• Moyhu on how-errors-really-propagate-in-differential-equations

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nutting 

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading-and-browsing, jewish-emancipation-a-history-across-five-centuries
• Tony Walker on book-review-brian-tooheys-secret-warns-against-australia-being-joined-at-the-hip-with-us
• Marcus Colla on book-review-hitler-only-world-was-enough

Vox wonk

• government-investment-and-fiscal-stimulus
• puzzling-exchange-rate-dynamics-and-delayed-portfolio-adjustment
• role-political-connections-public-employment-dynamics
• rise-digital-currency
• how-imf-can-raise-its-game-monetary-policy-advice
• welfare-effects-trumps-china-tariffs
• martin-weitzman-s-contributions-environmental-economics
• propagation-economic-shocks-through-supply-chains
• rules-origin-largely-unnecessary-simply-protectionist
• bilateral-and-aggregate-trade-balances-finding-right-focus
• exploitation-and-destruction-nazi-occupied-europe
• industrial-policy-lessons-china
• economic-incentives-home-production-and-gender-identity-norms
• two-sides-government-guarantees-banks
• rise-buyer-power-online-advertising
• replacing-libor
• automation-and-jobs-when-technology-boosts-employment
• libra-paves-way-central-bank-digital-currency
• financial-origin-euro-area-fiscal-wound
• financial-constraints-and-productivity-growth
• how-pension-plans-changed-kinship-traditions
• how-money-can-turn-electoral-results-upside-down

Gladys Liu has a lot of questions to answer

Gladys Liu the new member of Chisholm is in a lot of trouble.
I will let Clive Hamilton do the hours.

On a prima facie basis she is in a lot of trouble. Asio had a lot of problems with some people at one of her fundraisers. The State Libs in Victoria gave back a substantial amount because of 'concerns'.
She keeps on changing her story and worse makes absurd claims such as I don't remember.

Clearly the voters in Chisholm are seen to be wood-ducks now if not earlier. She is known for using 'dirty tricks' in politics.

Let me make some brave forecasts.
1) The Government will NOT allow Liu to resign under any circumstances.
2) Liu will continue to be a millstone around Morrison's neck . ( how good is that sarc)
3) Liu will not contest the next federal election.

Update:

Morrison had a press conference and avoided any comment on either the ASIO recommendation that Turnbull avoid the Liu function or that the State Libs gave back money that Liu had gained.

Why? 

The last election. Why did Labor lose?

Kevin Bonham relooks at the last election in view of the ANU survey.

It is a MUST read.

Say no more!!!.

ScoMo does not understand basic economics

Leigh Sales asked Scott Morrison a good question. He clearly did not understand it.

On a very basic level the government now has a surplus. It is taking money out of the economy. In very good times this is good as Keynes said in 1936 as it is offset by the private sector. however this is not occurring at present.

The RBA is doing as much as it can but cutting rates when they are already low aint going to do much. Phillip Lowe has repeatedly called for more Infrastructure spending.

Now we know here it is not the overall deficit/surplus that makes a difference to changing the economy but the Structural deficit/surplus. Se Here and Here for example.

Lowe is implying the changing in the structural budget deficit is not enough to boost the economy.

Interestingly Chritoph Boehm has written a very interesting article where he n makes the point public consumption not investment has a greater multiplier effect.  I leave that for the moment although one would expect greater economic benefits if the infrastructure projects were on the list of Infrastructure Australia's list of priorities which only TWO are..

I have said previously also the government is hoping It can retain its surplus ( most economists would say it is merely balanced being less than 1% of GDP)  and somehow the economy recovers.  This might happen but then again the recovery could well be tepid.

Has China woken the Dragon in Hong Kong?

The Chinese government and their acolytes have been shown to be chumps in Hong Kong.

The law to extradite people to mainland China was seen for what it was and there were HUGE demonstrations against the bill.

The hapless leader has only just dais the bill is dead. Why she took so long to say this simply shows what a poor politician she is and that is what she is supposed to be.
Indeed I think it can be said she has NO credibility and will  never have any and there will be no progress whilst she remains leader.

What the Chinese political leadership has done in a very ironical sense is wake the dragon on Hong Kong. Whilst billionaires who make their money by their communist 'connections' want closer relations with Chins most in Hong Kong do not.

What has started out as a large protest against a diabolical bill has morphed into almost a Hong Kong independence movement. There seems little likelihood of this protest falling away anytime soon.

What can the Chinese leadership do?
This is Hong Kong remember not Beijing. The political consequences both locally and internationally if Chinese armed forces marched in and started shooting would be unimaginable. The protests for example would escalate and Hong Kong would come to a standstill.
This would override anything else happening on the world stage for China.

What can they do?

I am no expert but Ii would say two things
1) Be patient. at some time the demonstration will start to fall away unless provocative action occurs.
2) Replace the hapless leader because of sickness or she wants more time with her family.