Gerard Henderson watch

 I think this maybe the last as I suspect our Gerry has caught the trump cognitive decline.

He always has a go at Turnbull for putting at  risk the large majority Abbott got in his landslide. Hang on why did the liberal right wing approach turnbull to be leader ( under certain conditions .A faustian bargain no less). They did this because they thought they were going to lose and lose badly no less! We must make allowances for Gerry though although has has both a law degree and a PhD he clearly ddot not understand basic stats nor economics for that matter!

He believes that Fauci agreed with Markson on the origins of covid. Err no. Fauci along with most virologists thought it came from wuhan markets BUT did not rule out a lab leak. Indeed in one section of his diary he thought Markson's writing were 'strange'. How did he miss that.

He thinks that it is a load of tosh that Hansson banning certain journalists from  one nation news conferences and gets this thinks Trump is a good example of this! Compare that with Greste and Muller).

He also thinks bolt broke the 'melons story when David Marr claimed sky after dark and the murdoch press said little for 6 weeks. Well last week it was wall to wall in both places after the article by the anti-ALP former japanese ambassador. It wasn't when bolt 'broke' the story. Gerry does not explain this at all.

Remember when Joyce went and at his dog when being interviewed on 7.30. Our Gerry thought that Sarah Ferguson was being hostile by getting him to answer her question.

Our Gerry does not like soft interviews and mention alleged soft interviews on both the ABC and  other TV networks involving the ALP yet he never ever mentions interviews on sky after dark with LNP or one nation people. Our condescending elder appears to be a hypocrite. 

Frank Zappa

 

Frank Zappa is not to everyone's taste but he always had a great band. In Sydney he had Norman Gunston ( Garry McDonald) doing mouth harp really well!!!

Around the Traps 14/8/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Saul Eslake on how-to-fix-victoria-in-four-charts-and-you-can-forget-higher-taxes thanks Nick
• Chris Richardson on this-chart-shouldnt-look-like-this thanks Nick
• Daniel Casey on are-there-too-many-political-polls-we-are-in-glut-and-it-may-be-about-to-get-worse
• Patrick Commins on australias-falling-house-prices-are-actually-a-good-thing-for-mortgage-holders-heres-why , reserve-bank-australia-rba-interest-rates-hike-warning-threat
• Deborah Glass on after-nearly-12-years-in-power-the-victorian-governments-longevity-has-come-at-some-cost-to-its-integrity
• Graham Fletcher on stabilising-ties-with-china-is-not-appeasement 
• Andres Molina on the-naplan-fine-print-we-missed-the-gap-between-advantaged-and-disadvantaged-students-is-growing
• Stella Huangfu on rba-holds-rates-steady-as-the-housing-market-softens-but-another-hike-is-still-possible
• Graeme Orr on voter-beware-how-electoral-commissions-are-powerless-to-stop-deliberately-misleading-party-names
• Vikas Kumar on australia-doesn-t-need-to-win-the-ai-race 
• Ross Gittins on australia-s-voters-are-now-split-three-ways-but-not-by-party
• Greg Jericho on isnt-it-amazing-what-a-policy-that-actually-tackles-the-cause-of-outrageous-house-prices-can-do
• Emily Foley and Josh Sunman on one-nation-has-long-claimed-to-represent-the-working-class-and-that-makes-it-a-serious-threat-to-labor
• Roy Green on why-the-2-5-billion-tomago-aluminium-deal-is-no-ordinary-bailout
• Philip Almond on pauline-hanson-calls-australia-judeo-christian-but-the-term-is-a-meaningless-modern-invention
• Mark Gregory on regional-and-rural-australians-left-behind-by-telco-services-new-report
• Shane Wright on a-60-billion-gst-fiasco-report-condemns-morrison-deal-as-perverse

OZ Climate

• Jena Glover et al on you-might-be-buying-the-wrong-home-battery-heres-how-to-tell
• Jessica Benthuysen et al on reef-relief-how-a-late-summer-monsoon-helped-cool-the-great-barrier-reef-at-just-the-right-time
• Emma Camp et al on did-you-know-theres-a-vast-reef-network-off-the-north-coast-of-australia-few-do-and-thats-a-problem
• Magus Solderburg on these-5-charts-show-how-far-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-can-take-us-and-why-we-still-need-the-grid
• Zoe Doubleday and Bethany Jackal on australia-is-home-to-the-only-mass-cuttlefish-gathering-in-the-world-this-year-these-giants-didnt-return
• Tegan Clark and Isabelle Finlay on storms-of-dust-and-sand-are-another-sign-our-climate-is-changing-two-experts-explain
• Graham Readfearn on the-great-barrier-reef-isnt-dead-yet-according-to-news-corp-that-makes-climate-science-a-pseudo-religion
• bowen-launches-review-of-emission-caps-and-credits-for-australias-biggest-carbon-polluters
  
• climate-active-is-dead-the-funeral-will-not-be-certified-carbon-neutral 
  
• aemo-review-rejects-radical-change-of-governance-green-lights-auction-house-exit
  
• dont-let-the-data-centre-gold-rush-become-an-excuse-to-pollute
  
• australias-biggest-aluminium-smelter-gets-2-5-billion-to-help-transition-from-coal-to-wind-and-solar
  
• coal-will-close-to-schedule-says-agl-but-to-build-more-wind-we-need-policy-certainty-in-return
  
• northern-hemisphere-extreme-heat-records-just-a-warm-up-for-the-full-el-nino-theatre
  
• fertiliser-from-thin-air-how-farmers-can-make-their-own-fertiliser-from-air-water-and-renewables
  
• from-niche-technology-to-500000-households-taking-control-cheaper-home-batteries-hits-half-million-milestone
• s-curve-modelling-says-renewables-can-kick-coal-out-of-australia-by-2032-but-is-this-soon-enough
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on the-sum-of-all-bessents-fears
• Brad De Long on partial-crosspost-peter-conti-brown-Trump's-continual-war-against-fed-independence , crosspost-michael-sellers-trump-thinks-iran-is-ready-to-deal-Iran-thinks-trump-is-who's-right , 2026-08-12-01-1-month-34-12-month-inflation-CPI-release
• Francis Fukuyama on trump has revolutionised-excutive power thanks Nick
• Kruggers on talking-with-g-elliott-morris-about-the-midterms , against-oligarchy-part-iii-taxing-capital-and-taxing-labour , the-us-healthcare-system-is-already-socialised , the-rise-of-the-measles-industrial-complex
• Peter Wehner on fauci-paul-covid-wuhan
• Mark the Graph on the-good-bad-and-unknowable-us-economy
• noahpinion on banning-data-centers-would-blow-up-the-US-economy
• Marie-Rose Sheinerman on trump-ethics-corruption-crypto-watchdogs
• Ruth Marcus on the-senates-shameful-acquiescence-to-todd-blanche-as-attorney-general 
• Eric Levitz on israel-aid-el-sayed-block-the-bombs-democrats 
• Alan Walter on trump-immunity-deal-todd-blanche-fraud
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-birthright-citizenship-second-time
• Jeffrey Braithwaite on why-trumps-mmr-vaccine-order-is-the-latest-public-health-disaster-with-effects-set-to-last-years
• Benji Sarlin on francesca-hong-david-crowley-wisconsin-governor-primary-democratic-nomination
• David Cole on close-calls-us-supreme-court
• Yuvraj Tuli on deference-follow-expertise-not-pretext 
• Stephen Harrington et al on the-media-has-made-donald-trump-look-more-coherent-than-he-is-its-called-sanewashing
• Cameron Peters on us-iran-war-uss-lincoln-aircraft-carrier-sailors-mental-health 
• Kaitlin Dewey on karoline-leavitt-steps-down
• Fred Kaplan on ukraine-iran-trump-jd-vance-oil-gas-prices
• open mind on climate-change-a-tale-of-two-americas
• Harry Litman on dream-on-donald-trump
• Mark Stern on congress-versus-trump-democrats-president-2028

Europe

• civil service reform on a-barium-meal-what-the-government-digital-service-s-story-reveals-about-a-civil-service-that-struggles-to-reform-itself thanks Nick 
• Kruggers on what-malta-tells-us-about-oligarchy
• Kelli Wessinger and Noel King on ukraine-russia-war-drones-frontline-tactics-putin
• Lisa Martin on the-iron-ladies-of-europe-find-common-cause-on-migration

Asia

• Chad Hewitt et al on ships-stuck-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-region-may-be-biosecurity-risks-when-they-leave-what-can-we-do
• Mikhaimar Abusada on gazas-road-map-is-driven-by-trump-but-reluctant-passengers-and-serious-potholes-could-derail-pathway-to-peace
• Henry Storey on taiwan-s-two-speed-ai-economy
• Sebastian Usher and Callum Tulley on israel accused of weaponising archeology at ancient west bank site
• Michael Clarke and Jade Guan on building-xi-s-world-class-military-with-a-red-soul
• Saira Bano on the-mecca-pact-redraws-the-indo-pacific-s-western-edge
• Bernard Avishai on an-israeli-satirists-bid-to-save-his-countrys-democracy
• Gabrielle Kuiper on pakistans-citizen-led-solar-rush-where-panels-power-education-and-health-and-are-gifted-in-dowries
• Emma Graham-Harrison on israeli-militants-besiege-two-palestinian-families-in-their-west-bank-homes
• Anne Irfan on netanyahu-rejects-trumps-gaza-roadmap-history-tells-us-israel-may-be-planning-to-stay
• Lowell Bautista on scarborough-shoal-and-the-philippines-paper-trail-in-the-south-china-sea
• Ishaan Tharoor on israels-leaders-find-allies-among-the-global-far-right 
• home and away on low-keying

Wonk

• Phillip Wagness on quinn-slobodian-hayeks-bastards-ludwig-von-mises thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on growth-effects-of-ai-modest-for-a-decade-or-two-at-least , when-happiness-was-invented , rocks-in-the-harbor-beveridge-and-robinson , did-the-sewing-machine-reduce-the-workload-for-women
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update 
• Kristen Sobeck on calls-to-tax-billionaires-are-growing-is-there-a-better-way-to-tax-the-rich
• Melissa Lee on generative-ai-has-changed-mathematics-forever-where-to-from-here
• Jennie Brand-Miller et al on fruit-and-honey-fuelled-the-early-evolution-of-the-human-brain
• Avishay Artsy and Noel King on annie-jacobsen-biological-war-germs-virus-covid 
• noahpinion on should-we-pace-ai-self-improvement , the-poverty-of-anti-tech-thought , roundup-86-unintended-consequences
• Brad De Long on late-summer-for-the-internal-combustion-engine-vehicle-sector , the-grave-of-karl-polanyi , crosspost-patrick-wyman-the-human-sacrifices-of-the-shang-dynasty
• John Quiggin on the-odyssey-and-the-bronze-age-collapse
• Mainly Macro on unpicking-legacy-of-neoliberalism 
• Tyler Cowen on how-much-will-cybersecurity-costs-rise , mistakes-in-financial-economics
• Abdi Yulian on the-brussels-effect-multiplied-to-redraw-global-supply-chains
• Kruggers on why-isnt-the-price-of-oil-even-higher
• Chris Dillow on stagnation-the-norm

General

• Hannah Schunker on see-the-suns-surface-in-higher-detail-than-ever-before-in-new-telescope-images
• Tim Harford on lessons-from-a-shipwreck

Climate

• Quicco Toro on termination-shock-now-reducing-air-pollution-is-accelerating-global-warming thanks Nick
• Himadri Saini and Laurie Menviel on giant-ice-mountains-on-the-other-side-of-earth-once-dictated-australias-climate-new-study
• open mind on whos-to-blame-for-wildfires
• Ajit Niranjan on global-seas-hottest-temperature-july-scientists
• Lauren Rikards et al on can-the-searing-european-summer-put-climate-action-back-on-the-agenda-or-will-disaster-response-take-over
• Catherine Lovelock on the-worlds-mangrove-forests-are-bouncing-back-thats-good-news-for-our-coasts-and-climate
• Linden Ashcroft on climate-whiplash-is-not-simply-a-buzzword-but-a-symptom-of-a-warming-planet
• David Appell on two-el-nino-graphs
• Sina Pinter and Nicole Jones on marine-heatwaves-are-cooking-our-ocean-ecosystems-and-will-only-become-more-common
• skeptical science on future-floods-wont-come-one-at-a-time , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• denial-when-you-are-not-part-of-it-is-actually-a-terrifying-thing-one-watches-ones-fellow-humans-doing-things-that-will-damage-themselves-while-being-wholly-unable-to-help
  
• sane-washing 
  
• people-keep-sending-me-ai-slop-that-they-want-me-to-post-on-the-blog
  
• i-recommend-this-book-on-applied-regression-and-causal-inference
  
• computer-scientists-today-are-like-economists-in-the-early-2000s-and-freudian-psychiatrists-in-the-1950s
  
• survey-statistics-wanting-workflow 
  
• who-were-the-makers-of-public-policy-in-1965
  
• we-should-probably-be-doing-more-coverage-of-science-adjacent-medical-scams-like-the-q-collar-and-less-on-repulsively-self-promoting-but-ultimately-less-harmful-academic-grifters
  
• 7-1-2-schools-mistakes-were-made
  
• answering-some-questions-about-statistics-from-a-high-school-student
  
• q-collar-promoters-have-no-shame-advertising-their-discredited-research-on-social-media-using-lying-cheating-chatbots
  
• Kaiser Fung on fun-with-ai
• freakometrics on when urban flood models disagree

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews) 

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Mridula Chakraborty on geetanjali-shrees-radical-fiction-written-in-hindi-is-finding-a-global-audience
• econjeff on chile-project-by-sebastian-edwards

vox wonk

• how-rise-ai-matters-fiscal-policy 
  
• marriage-squeeze-how-college-gender-gap-reshaping-who-marries-whom 
  
• ai-feedback-loops-and-conditions-explosive-growth 
  
• japans-productivity-transformation-within-firm-stagnation-market-driven-reallocation 
  
• scramble-critical-minerals-old-curse-new-world 
  
• revisiting-immigrations-effect-us-wages-and-employment 
  
• macroprudential-policy-may-curb-innovation-instrument-choice-matters
  
• autopsy-voluntary-carbon-market 
  
• quantifying-china-discourse 
  
• exorbitant-privilege-periodic-table
  

US polity

 

Trump changing planes

Trump changed planes because the secret service thought there was a real threat to the 747 if flown so he left in secret but left other people as decoys. How Iran could maintain a threat when they clearly cannot bring down planes in Iran is a mystery. I would assume the secret service was being very conservative.

Vaccines

Trump via Kennedy wants to make kids weaker if not dying  from diseases because they believe conspiracy theories.

See Kruggers yes Kruggers and Braithwaite. When idiots are in command and people believe them this is what you get. Measles anyone!

Polls

I see a candidate in a democratic primary who was a bit of a whacko and who was supposed to win in a canter lost a close race. Hmm.

Blanche

He was disgracelly confirmed as A/G. He was responsible for a person getting a vindictive prosecution. He also patently lied about witness and proof in the 8647 case against comey. He signed off that the trumps would get life time immunity from the Taxation office. He was Trump's personal lawyer so it was a clear conflict of interest.

Leavitt leaving

Trump has to find a new press secretary. She has told people she prays before every news conference. Hmm so why did she lie about say foreign countries paying tariffs or democrats supporting hamas or even just criminals. When you make claims that christianity rules your life then you make darkness not light if you do not own up to sin. We all do it but politics highlights it bigtime.

the melons issue is a load of old cobblers

 I eventually saw Albo talking about the melons . (If you do not know about this than read THIS).

This is a non-issue. A person who uses hands to talk about a woman's breasts cups them. He does not hold them sideways as you do making a point. If it was it would not have taken news limited 6 weeks to discover it. The former Japanese ambassador has form about disliking the ALP and the pictures simply do not support him. his 'interview' last night with Chris Kenny was embarrassing.

Now I am no fan of albo as I want him replaced but there are fair dinkum issues to criticise him on not this manufactured one.

Talking about Chris Kenny we again saw his lack of knowledge on a topic. He was claiming the pro-Palestinian marches was connected to the bondi massacre. Thus just for him and other ignoramuses HEre is a summary of their ideology. Notice they like to kill apostates. Like say shia muslims as most muslims are in Gaza. Of course killing christians would be a bonus. If as the authorities say the murderers were \ highly influenced by ISIS then ....

People who conflate pro-Palestinians protests with the bondi murders are liars, ignorant or deliberately conflating the two topics.

some good news and bad news on climate

 the bad news

• global-seas-hottest-temperature-july-scientists
  
•  can-the-searing-european-summer-put-climate-action-back-on-the-agenda-or-will-disaster-response-take-over

the good news

• reef-relief-how-a-late-summer-monsoon-helped-cool-the-great-barrier-reef-at-just-the-right-time
  

Australian Polity

 Polls

Do we have too many polls. Good question. We do have too many people who do not understand basic stats. When I was younger it was a given by both parties people did not get  'involved in elections until just before the election.

Okay it used to be thought polling this far out from the election would be said to be more like a by-election. I will concede however it might be different this time.

Gambling

I said before Albo is weak on this. He is because he is PM. they want to win elections and thus not get people or 'influential' lobbies offside. In other worse he wants both the NRL and AFL onside. I am surprised by the Opposition on this topic. Lets hope it continues. Gambling is an evil. If you could make money from it there would not be any gambling companies. Everyone should do the introductory statistics tutorial I did when they examined the probability of winning money from all forms of gambling!

Tim Wilson

I confess I have never had time for him. He usually lacks basic understanding of the topic he is talking about. Making him shadow treasurer was a 'courageous' decision. He has been lucky a lot of his mistakes have been missed.Let us examine three he has talked about recently. He criticises the level of government spending. yet he has criticised attempts to bring the NDIS under control. 

He has also alleged corruption on the part of the government yet has been very vague about what the sd corruption is.

He has also said he would cut a lot of tax levels and this would involve a lot of money yet he refuses to nominate where he would cut  this large amount of spending.

Data Centres

One interesting thing I found over the weekend was Mark Zandi saying data centres are contributing to inflationary pressures. Why anyone  would want data centres to be powered by gas or coal instead of renewables when they are far more costly!!