Starmer appears stuffed

 The UK Prime minister Keir Starmer appears gawn.

For reasons I have never understood he appointed the prince of darkness to be the UK's ambassador to the USA He had to resign from Cabinet not once but TWICE!! If that was not a red light it was certainly an amber which meant a lot of investigation needed to be done on him.

Starmer whilst impressive on the foreign stage is mediocre on the domestics one.

This  comes down to two reasons.

1. A successful leader needs to have very good political judgement. Starmer does not appear to have this.
2. A successful leader needs a very good team. Paul Keating for example always had an outstanding team around him in whom he could trust. Starmer clearly does not have this. Starmer appointed them so he has to own this.

He got into trouble because his judgement was poor BUT also his team di not understood what proper process is. That Mandelson has problems with security should have set off the air raid sirens but it didn't.

Starmer's staff incompetence in this matter simply translates into Starmer's incompetence.

Reform has gained popularity over there for reasons that escape me. They are corrupt and lie with great ease and Starmer's answer to to capture a number of their policies. That never works because people usually want the originals to implement policy.

All this means Starmer is gawn.

Stagflation

 I have heard in recent times a lot of talk of stagflation returning. I am old enough to have grown up in the 70s and 80s ( like John Quiggin.) That is when it was trendy to talk about stagflation. Inflation and unemployment both reached double digits! The misery index exploded! IT also stayed around a while.

Thus I got to expect exactly that. both inflation and unemployment had to reach double digits. If you read the definition.clearly it does not state what levels inflation and unemployment have to reach.

Thus if Australia gets to 5% both in the CPI and unemployment do we have stagflation? If we only have it for a short time is that counted?

I would say no in both cases BUT I can see why some would argue otherwise. Mark the Graph we need you to write on this.

Most Western nations have independent central banks. Here in OZ I am sure the RBA will raise rates quickly to ensure inflationary expectations do not rise as well so the rise inflation would be temporary but as the economy slows unemployment will rise. Falls in unemployment always are much slower than inflation.

So my question is are we about to get stagflation or not?

Whoopsy I really should have talked more about the Fed. IF a FEd which has a lot of Trump nominees leaves interest rates where they are or even cut them as inflation rises then look out. Arthur Burns has returned!

Mark the Graph delivers. Well done sir.

climate Change nothing has changed

 I am sick of climate change denialists. They are either liars or completely ignorant.  Liam Bartlett is obviously in the latter camp. Naturally he got even his basics wrong. cobalt aint used in what he alleged. however they are used in I-Phones and laptops.

Two myths stand out to me. Offshore windmills kill whales for which there is NO research at all. The other is windmills onshore kills birds. Now there is evidence for this BUT they are avoiding them now!

Guess what they are killed by aeroplanes, skyscrapers and even coalfired power stations. My guess if birds are smart enough to ignore wind towers they would certainly give these others a miss.

The point is critics here either make things up or simply ignore, like our Liam , other evidence that convicts what they support.

Of course you won't be surprised that the same suspects who blamed rising electricity prices on renewables when Russia invaded ukraine when it was clearly oil and gas ( oops).

Of course they Are now doing it again.  They also clearly do not understand economics. Yes Australia has a lot of undiscovered oil BUT BUT BUT it is uneconomic. Oli prices would have to remain high for a  long time for companies to get into exploration let alone refining oil.

Iran again

 Let us go back to the beginning.

Obama set up a reasonable agreement with other nations.

Iran had to curb their nuclear interests. There would be inspectors to examine their dealings. It worked well BUT Trump came in and tore it up.

Now we have a war where no ships can go anywhere near the strait of hormuz. It is important to note that no tanker will attempt to go through it without insurance and they will not have insurance if there are threats being thrown around let alone live ammunition.

We are also being told two different things. Iran's nuclear ambitions were obliterated all those months ago by US and Israeli fighters. Nuclear were very close to possing a nuclear bomb. Huh. I think we can ignore Iran was anywhere near to having a nuclear bomb. By the way I have never heard any Irani official say they were willing to Nuke Israel knowing they would be nuked in turn. ( Israel has over 200 nukes)

We are also told Iran must stop funding their proxies. Okay how do you do that. We have not been told.

Iran also has to reduce their missile and drone capability.

some say they want regime change in Iran.

Okay if you want some or even all of those aims upheld you will need boots on the ground.

Irani officials know the importance of the mid-terms. My guess there would be a number of US soldiers killed BUT also a number of petro-chemical plants destroyed by Iran's missiles. The world economy would be hit very hard.

Think about this. The US negotiators are inexperienced with little back up to help them by design. Steve witkoff has been shown to be easily manipulated by Russia. He also either lied or di not understand what Iran said according to Oman's officials.  This is always likely to occur if you do not have experts from the State department to help you. Kushner and Vance have little experience in negotiating and it shows.

From where I sit it is very clear Trump is failing around because everything has gone pear-shaped. i have no idea of how this is going to work out but it doesn't look good.

Mark Knopfler

 If you have not seen Local Hero then do yourself a favour and watch it if only for the magnificent scottish scenery.

This music is the ending of the film and I am sorry but I have never seen a decent live version of the music.

Around the Traps 17/4/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on more-australian-lng-to-singapore-flagged-as-albanese-looks-to-strengthen-oil-supply-chain
• Antony Green on sa2026-huge-win-for-labor-but-a-warning-in-the-result
• Kate Griffiths et al on to-stop-australian-democracy-going-the-way-of-the-us-heres-what-we-need-to-do
• Kevin Bonham on the-amazing-2026-south-australian-election
• Abul Risvi on australia-immigration-powers-angus-taylor-trump
• Sam Bennett and Reilly Polaschek on the-government-wants-to-curb-ndis-spending-heres-how-it-might-succeed
• Andrew Whitehouse on autism-diagnoses-are-up-largely-fuelled-by-the-ndis-what-happens-next-isnt-entirely-clear
• Dave Jervis-Bardy on ignore-self-serving-claims-from-gas-giants-and-implement-100-tax-on-windfall-profits-ken-henry-says
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-chaos-donald-trump
• Clinton Free on employment-data-shows-the-early-signs-of-ai-job-disruption-are-already-here
• Saul Eslake on another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have
• Tony Wood on what-does-the-geelong-refinery-fire-reveal-about-australias-fuel-supplies
• Antony Green on it-turns-out-the-count-aint-over
• Mick Ryan on 2026-national-defence-strategy-delivers-more-same

OZ Climate

• Kimberly Reid on why-the-phrase-super-el-nino-makes-australian-climate-scientists-roll-their-eyes
• Adam Morton on australia-fossil-fuels-politics-electric-vehicle-savings-clean-energy
• Envirolink on sydneys-summer-season-extends-dramatically-as-global-cities-face-longer-heat-periods
• an-own-goal-that-we-dont-need-investor-group-sounds-alarm-over-new-tax-on-renewables
  
• fortescue-fast-tracks-worlds-first-large-scale-green-grid-to-eliminate-diesel-and-other-fossil-fuels
  
• birds-avoid-turbines-two-new-studies-suggest-wind-farms-are-not-killing-machines-after-all
  
• 100-pct-renewable-74-pct-of-the-time-how-australias-most-advanced-grid-plans-to-be-an-energy-powerhouse
  
• can-networks-solve-australias-chicken-and-egg-ev-problem-the-battle-for-control-of-kerbside-charging
  
• the-hours-the-market-wants-back-free-daytime-power-or-a-fix-for-solar-and-wind-curtailment
  
• most-heavy-emitters-blow-their-carbon-budgets-but-bowen-sees-clear-sign-safeguard-mechanism-is-working
  
• this-lobby-barely-blinks-when-trump-threatens-genocide-but-is-in-meltdown-when-bowen-talks-wind-and-solar
  
• australian-home-battery-installations-equal-to-almost-10-pct-of-global-utility-capacity-brought-online-in-march
• batteries-included-amazon-makes-record-haul-of-hybrid-renewable-ppas-to-power-australian-ai-push
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on u-s-dollar-dominance-in-trade-invoicing-and-cross-border-investments-in-seacen-eeconomies
• Astead Hearndon on america-actually
• noahpinion on will-americans-want-more-housing-if-it-looks-prettier , what-if-a-few-ai-companies-end-up-with-all-the-money-and-power , hasan-piker-is-bad-for-the-democrats
• Kruggers on the-dollars-special-status-sources-and-threats , how-america-is-losing-the-world , trump-wants-regime-change-at-the-fed
• Christian Paz on trump-pope-ai-blasphemy-art-christ-evangelical-religious-right
• open mind on truth-about-trump
• the conversable economist on the-us-as-an-innovation-economy , the-austin-experience-more-housing-lower-rents
• Matt Simon on ev-battery-storage-grid-renewable-energy
• Tom Nicholls on trump-pope-post-truth-social
• Garret Graf on how-much-has-the-war-in-iran-depleted-the-us-missile-supply
• Mark Stern on aclu-lawsuit-ice-reign-of-terror-maine-california
• Molly Omstead on trump-jesus-post-pope-attack-maga-reaction
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-iran-hungary-melania-epstein
• Jon Allsop on what-brought-down-eric-swalwell
• David Rhode on gabbard-revives-deep-state-conspiracy-claims-alarming-democrats-who-see-a-pattern
• Bevan Shields on trumps-state-of-mind
• Naomi Seligman on eric-swalwell-resignation-congress-culture
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-speech-progressives-hitler
• Chris Lehmann on how trump keeps getting away with blasphemy
• Sarah Fitzpatrick on kash-patel-fbi-director-drinking-absences

Europe

• Johan Norberg on how-viktor-orbans-hungary-eroded-rule-law-free-markets Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hatwich on im-a-liberal-now-but-i-still-mourn-the-slow-death-of-the-social-democrats-in-germany Thanks Nick
• future of the left reader on the-purpose-of-patriotism Thank you Nick
• Kruggers on delusions-of-grandeur-hungary-edition
• Paul Whiteley on three-reasons-donald-trump-wont-pull-the-us-out-of-nato
• open mind on march-2026-climate-in-the-usa
• Zack Beauchamp on hungary-election-results-2026-viktor-orban-peter-magyar
• Andrew Marantz on the-hungarian-election-shows-that-even-strongmen-can-lose
• Robert Horvath on he-exposed-corruption-and-walked-across-hungary-now-peter-magyar-has-defeated-a-powerful-state-machine
• renew economy on renewable-generation-records-fall-across-the-uk-as-imported-gas-consumption-tumbles

Asia

• Jennifer Parker on what-will-it-take-to-get-ships-going-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-again
• Jessica Genauer on will-the-conflict-in-lebanon-destroy-the-us-iran-ceasefire-maybe-but-it-was-already-shaky
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on middle-east-conflict-this-ceasefire-may-have-made-iran-stronger
• David Remnick on Trumps strategic and  moral failure in iran
• Sanjoy Paul on trumps-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-risks-new-costs-for-the-global-economy
• Donald Rothwell on would-a-us-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-legal
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-orban-hungary-economy
• Aniello Iannone on asean-s-energy-crisis-not-about-energy 
• Richard Heydarian on marcos-s-overture-china-masks-anxiety-about-us-reliability
• Kruggers on chinese-electrotech-is-the-big-winner
• Leon Goldsmith on strait-of-hormuz-blockade-the-complex-regional-realities-the-us-ignores-at-its-peril
• Julius Trajano on oil-shock-nuclear-surge-asia
• Colin Powers on the-emirates-on-the-tightrope
• Isaac Chotiner on the-extremes-of-israeli-public-opinion
• Johann Rebert and Nicola Nixon on asia-s-scam-centre-problem-moving-not-shutting-down
• home and away on iran-between-war-and-peace
• renew economy on worlds-biggest-co-located-wind-and-solar-project-begins-operations-in-china
• Federica Mogherini and Sahil Shah on how-to-end-the-iran-crisis
• Ali Mamouri on iran-has-a-powerful-new-tool-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-that-it-can-leverage-long-after-the-war
• Avishay Artsy and Sean Rameswaram on israel-lebanon-ceasefire-buffer-zone-hezbollah-explained
• Awais Hanif on japan-aims-shipbuilding-revival

Wonk

• institutional economics on fade-the-ceasefire-rally-its-not-going-to-last
• Brad De Long on is-the-day-of-the-data-center-about-to-be-over
• Ramon Glaznov on bearded-schizoidal-fanatics-the-revival-of-character-pathology-in-the-trump Thanks Nick
• Bruce Buchan on what-actually-is-civilisation-the-dark-and-loaded-history-behind-trumps-threat-against-iran
• Mark Alfano and Michael Klincewicz on slopaganda-wars-how-and-why-the-us-and-iran-are-flooding-the-zone-with-viral-ai-generated-noise
• Mark the Graph on weekly-update-energy-prices
• Tim Harford on the-usefulness-of-useless-knowledge
• the conversable economist on globalization-healthier-than-the-headlines , interview-with-ellen-mcgrattan-business-cycles-and-intangible-capital , ai-and-future-growth
• Nischal Dhungel on high-rates-expensive-oil-create-global-debt-trap
• Jing Ge on moon-governance-spotlight-after-artemis-ii
• Mathew Sussex on what-viktor-orbans-election-loss-means-for-putin-trump-and-the-rise-of-right-wing-populism
• Art Cotterill on as-artemis-ii-is-celebrated-the-world-faces-hard-questions-about-us-leadership-in-space
• Melanie O'Brien on health-care-workers-risk-their-lives-in-warzones-are-we-protecting-them-enough
• Tyler Cowen on the-venetian-empire-and-the-mongols-modeling-marco-polo
• Chris Dillow on one-cheer-for-falling-income-inequality
• Flavio Macao on will-oil-prices-ever-truly-go-back-to-normal
• noahpinion on you-are-what-you-consume

General

• Priyanka Dhopade on artemis-ii-as-humans-return-to-the-moon-which-of-these-4-futures-will-we-choose
• Samarth Kulshiresthra on the-secret-sensory-life-of-plants-researchers-are-discovering-how-they-see-hear-feel-and-even-remember
• Steve Prabhu and James Miller-Jones on black-hole-jets-dance-in-the-wind-from-a-massive-companion-star

Climate

• real climate on a-reflection-on-reflection
• ocean acidification on acidification-in-the-earth%ca%bcs-oceans-trends-and-persistence
• Mary-Ann Lea et al on the-beloved-emperor-penguin-and-antarctic-fur-seal-are-now-officially- on dangered-heres-what-can-be-done
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-down-0023-from-february
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heres-an-interesting-story-there-were-so-many-problems-with-the-survey-that-the-government-didnt-release-the-data
  
• the-ftc-does-not-have-our-backs-that-much-is-clear
  
• all-graphs-are-comparisons-and-the-relevance-of-this-principle-for-practical-advice-for-producing-better-graphs
  
• which-beliefs-are-considered-acceptable-and-which-are-not
  
• how-to-report-a-n12-study
  
• epistemic-virtues-for-science-in-the-age-of-automation 
• survey-statistics-irrelevant-alternatives
  
• can-you-hit-a-home-run-off-of-paul-skenes
  
• fascinating-1981-interview-with-morris-kline-author-of-the-classic-book-mathematics-the-loss-of-certainty
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• AI log on the-pluralistic-universe-of-michael-pollan Thanks Nick
• programable mutter on ai-has-limits-even-if-many-ai-people-can't-see-them Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-55 , that-was-then-that-was-then , that-was-then-this-is-now-56

Vox Wonk

• when-and-why-political-leaders-polarise-rhetoric-evidence-twitterx 
  
• more-women-politics-does-not-always-mean-more-gender-equality 
  
• great-ai-talent-migration-why-universities-are-losing-future-innovation 
  
• migration-shocks-and-voting
  
• weaker-us-job-ladder-has-slowed-wage-growth 
  
• why-global-imbalances-matter-again-and-what-do-about-them
  
• global-shocks-are-back-emerging-markets-holding 
  
• how-new-technologies-travel-evidence-global-firm-networks
  
• rapid-technology-creation-widened-inequality-across-time-and-space 
  
• bank-failures-roles-solvency-and-liquidity 
  
• value-free-health-insurance-evidence-mexicos-seguro-popular 
  
• cross-border-payment-technologies-innovations-and-challenges-lessons-domestic-and 
  
• olympic-opportunity-social-housing-policy-lessons-athens-2004-olympic-village
  

some OZ stuff

 National party

Their leader who has studied and worked for the productivity commision came up with a dreadful idea yesterday. economics. He says there is plenty of oil in australia, Good thus far. He said the reason it wasn't being explored previously aa was because prices were too low to make it economic. Even better thus far. BUT he then goes on to promote a domestic oil industry. so he is in fact saying high prices will remain with us for a long time ( in the long term is the jargon) BUT he also says the present rise is only a short term phenomena. Note they are contradictory statements. Companies only invest in such ventures when they are confident of long term success. Thus would you be investing in oil exploration and refining?

Canavan is a protectionist thus saying whatever he studied at university was wrong!

climate change

I have noticed a bewildering lot of criticism coming from 'right wing' commentators at Chris Bowen. In most criticism there is a whole lot of economic ignorance. I heard one person say NSW is reliable because of our browns coal. Coal aint reliable and we have no brown coal Victoria has it!!

Batteries are roaring. This will have a significant effect on the market. We have seen commercial batteries reduce wholesale prices in the evening as they take market share from high cost gas.

Defence

As we raise our defence spending we must learn from Ukraine and its drone technology. We get a female head of army.

AI

Are we seeing the first effects of it?