Around the Traps 4/9/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps .

Ausssie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on who-fights-inflation, potential-speed-limit-for-economy
• Fei Gao on why-some-us-republicans-want-to-punish-australia-over-new-charges-for-tech-giants
• Mick Ryan on US-army-lost-ukraine-would-australia-do-better
• Alan Gamlen on australia-has-spent-25-years-stopping-the-boats-but-thats-not-the-same-as-controlling-migration
• Diane Krael on richard-denniss-is-calling-for-a-gas-export-tax-but-an-effective-royalty-system-would-be-a-better-option
• Danielle Thielke and Kelly Jauzems on heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-teens-and-sexual-choking
• Ross Gittins on do-our-pollies-really-want-a-more-affordable-housing-market-we-re-about-to-find-out
• Michelle Grattan on did-albaneses-language-against-one-nation-cross-a-line-or-is-pauline-hanson-just-playing-victim-politics
• Mathew Crocker on australias-government-now-has-1-trillion-in-debt-four-charts-on-how-we-got-here-and-its-cost
• Greg Jericho on australia-economy-gdp-growth-rba-expected-raise-interest-rates-again 
• John Hawkins and Peter Bartos on australias-economy-grows-by-2-1-but-peoples-living-standards-arent-keeping-pace

OZ Climate

• pressure-mounts-to-make-balcony-solar-legal-in-australia-as-it-goes-on-sale-in-the-uk 
  
• fresh-hope-as-huge-hybrid-wind-and-battery-project-reaches-financial-close-in-the-sunshine-state
  
• changing-tack-on-victorias-energy-transition-will-throw-electricity-savings-into-reverse-experts-warn
  
• rooftop-solar-record-tumbles-as-battery-rebate-drives-1-gw-of-new-installs-over-just-three-months
  
• australia-wrote-the-worlds-best-rooftop-pv-rules-we-must-do-the-same-for-plug-in-solar-and-fast
  
• state-owned-big-battery-slapped-with-1-2-million-fine-for-pushing-up-power-prices-and-profit-maximising
  
• why-do-we-bother-australia-cant-compete-with-chinas-green-transition-but-it-can-leverage-its-success
  
• one-nation-is-channeling-regional-anger-about-renewables-that-doesnt-mean-it-understands-it
  
• Alison Reeve on australia-datacentre-battle-highlights-hidden-truth-renewables-gas-electricity-solar
• Emily Simpson et al on despite-years-of-rain-blue-mountains-forests-still-havent-recovered-from-the-black-summer-megafires
• Graham Readfearn on bom-forecasts-strongest-el-nino-on-record-as-research-points-to-alarming-climate-change-influence
• Mingming Cheng and Peta Ashworth on australia-needs-renewable-energy-fast-but-building-it-is-only-half-the-battle

Northern America

• Brad De Long on heading-for-a-large-rapid-fall-in-interest-rates , the-white-collar-canaries-in-the-AI-job-loss-coalmine-are-wide-awake-feeding-and-chirping--to-themselves, the-fed-chairman-who-would-prefer-not-to-say, crosspost-justin-wolfers-did-trumps-achieve-trumps-goals
• Peter York on trump-style-dictator-autocrats-design Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on in-defence-of-drucken-slop , investment-intentions-tariffs-and-plague 
• Kruggers on oligarchy-and-the-great-evasion , from-kakistocracy-to-cheatistocracy, the-plot-to-steal-venezuelas-oil, the-hits-keep-coming. imperialist-delusions-and-the-price-of-fuel
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mail-voting-trump-major-questions-talwan, supreme-court-ballroom-standing-national-park-service-trump
• Menzie Chinn on seven-graphs-for-the-financial-system, the-cyclically-adjusted-budget-balance
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-generals-worried-reserves-military
• John Cassidy on how-much-is-the-iran-war-costing-americans
• Nancy Youseff et al on driscoll-hegseth-military-resignation
• Tom Nicholls on hegseth-driscoll
• Jordan Ascher on presumption-regularity-erosion-challenges-executive-action
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-chose-to-go-it-alone-against-iran-now-he-s-learning-the-value-of-friends
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-mail-voting-supreme-court-whistleblower 
• the conversable economics on us-energy-source-to-end-use, gross-and-net-us-investment
• home and away on secretary-of-war
• Harry Litman on the-other-side-of-dojs-corruption

Europe

• Musa Al-Ghabbi on jason-arday-and-me Thanks Nick
• Jack Grove on i-was-reported-police-over-arday-case-i-was-just-doing-my-job Thanks Nick 
• Nicole Townsend on landmines-and-remnants-of-war-pose-a-serious-threat-and-more-needs-to-be-done-to-solve-it

Asia

• Dibyesh Anand on nepal-floods-chinas-strict-control-of-tibet-makes-it-harder-to-prepare-for-himalayan-disasters
• Mark the Graph on lets-not-mention-war
• Saima Afzal on india-can-redraw-the-border-with-myanmar-but-who-controls-it
• Justin Hastings on tracking-north-korean-dark-ship
• Juan Caceres and Shannon Brincat on why-israel-and-turkey-are-trading-insults-and-jockeying-for-power-in-neighbouring-syria
• Shadi Saif on pakistan-s-september-showdown

Wonk

• Amerigo Buongiorno on anne-frank Thanks Nick
• Sam Kriss on everyone-loves-hitler Thanks Nick
• Carolyn Sissoko and Mina Ishizu on Preventing_financial_ruin Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-emily-bender-stochastic-parrots 
• Karryl Trajano and Brendan Lyut on no-mark-zuckerberg-the-future-is-not-yet-for-everyone
• Brad De Long on crosspost-david-albouy-jonathan-parker- john-steinsson, reading-lewis-carroll-1895-what-the-tortoise-said-to-achilles
• Sahara Hoff on the-us-has-struck-a-deal-to-control-venezuelas-oil-reserves-it-probably-wont-help-bring-down-fuel-prices
• Mainly Macro on is-the-fall-of-starmer-a-warning-for-the-democratic-party
• noahpinion on roundup-87-technology-bad
• Tyler Cowen on who-values-democracy
• the concis on the-coalition-of-the-doing Thanks Brad
• James Paterson on the-extremist-risk-behind-smart-glasses 
• Al Hynes on stop-declaring-world-war-III 
• Chris Dillow on buying-politicians
• Caitlin Dewey on gloria-steinem-death

General

• Stephen Pimentel on battling-all-the-way-home Thanks Nick
• open mind on boycott-everything-about-google

Climate

• open mind on i-dont-trust-the-usa-wildfire-data-from-our-world-in-data 
• Joshua Partlow on el-nino-effects 
• stoat on the-data-heat-island-effect
• Wesley Morgan on pacific-islands-forum-palau-summit-climate-change-greatest-threat
• Michael Mann on nepal-flooding-climate-disaster
• Tirthankar Ghosh and Levin Tielidz on the-collapse-of-a-mountainside-triggered-nepals-devastating-floods-as-the-regions-mountains-heat-up-it-wont-be-the-last
• Real Climate on koonins-temperature-of-the-lol-stratosphere
• renew economy on bloody-dangerous-territory-world-on-track-to-exceed-1-5c-warming
• Jacqueline Peel and Wesley Morgan on a-landmark-un-report-says-the-world-will-overshoot-the-1-5-c-climate-target-what-happens-now
• skeptical science on new_research
• essays concerning on the-five-stages-of-climate-denial-a-telegraph-case-study

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• why-did-anova-fall-out-of-fashion
  
• coyote-vs-acme-also-for-free-my-take-on-the-odyssey 
  
• fits-and-starts 
  
• shocked
  
• survey-statistics-logit-shift-and-raking
  
• yale-med-school-prof-tells-his-postdocs-work-extra-hours-at-my-command-or-youre-no-better-than-the-guy-who-charges-me-by-the-hour-to-cut-my-lawn 
  
• metascience-corner-what-can-we-learn-from-12-million-empirical-research-results 
  
• confirmation-bias-in-software-testing-walnutpie-edition 
  
• updike-and-statistical-writing-more-on-honesty-and-precision
  
• update-on-i-dont-understand-this-paper-claiming-election-fraud-in-2024-in-pennsylvania
  
• Kaiser Fung on note-to-nyt-simple-math-aint-simple

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• summertime-reading
  
• Andrew Gelman on updikes-kaleidoscope-telling-a-life-through-a-set-of-unconnected-stories
• Thomas Jeffries on the-threat-of-biological-warfare-is-real-a-new-book-describes-the-potential-devastation
• noahpinion on why-you-wont-get-a-flying-car

Vox Wonk

• closing-gap-borrowing-costs-emerging-market-firms 
  
• financial-engineering-no-substitute-interest-rates-lessons-turkiye 
  
• beyond-exposure-predicting-ai-adoption-based-comparative-advantage 
  
• how-currency-hedging-moves-exchange-rates 
  
• europes-federated-democratic-learning-state 
  
• global-pension-asset-allocations-and-debt-markets
  
• european-banks-and-private-markets-mapping-linkages
  
• new-evidence-strong-slow-portfolio-responses-equity-premium-changes 
  
• implications-of-climate-change-for-monetary-policy
  

A very short explainer on why inflation is bad.

 HERE is an article outlining 10 reasons why but it misses the main point!

The main reason why inflation is bad is because it confuses consumers.

The capitalist system is based on relative prices. If the  price of Lindemans wines go up then I buy Henscke for example.

If inflation rises substantially then absolute prices will confuse consumers and suddenly relative prices are hard to detect. Yeah I know it is a simplified example but that's economics.

In the end the RBA wants the capitalist system to work effectively and it can't if inflation rises to high levels.

More climate denialist lying.

 Read this Real Climate article and weep.

and here are some articles on the implications of the Nepal disaster.

• nepal-flooding-climate-disaster 
  
• the-collapse-of-a-mountainside-triggered-nepals-devastating-floods-as-the-regions-mountains-heat-up-it-wont-be-the-last
  

To take a theological view original sin at work!

more on the battery

 Our battery ( 17kw)  gets full every month bar June and July. There are some days in both autumn and spring ( and a month before and after) when the battery is nil in the morning. This is mostly due to both showers and cooking.

Appliances such as ovens,stoves, heaters, microwaves,irons and air conditioning do use a wee bit of power and our hot water system needs a fair bit of power to recharge twice a day. others such as fridges,dishwashers, washing machines ddo not.

The savings will be less as charges to use the grid or just being part of it have increased a lot.

update:  the battery is 90% at 9.30!

A short not on EVs. We do not have one but I see a lot of ignorance on the subject. you would only have to recharge the vehicle once a week not daily if you basically use it for the city. If you buy the right car it can become a battery as well boosting your battery at home.

Australian stuff

 Interest rates

I'm afraid I agree with John Hawkins. Interest rates have to rise. alas prices rose across the board last week in the CPI release.No central bank can afford to gamble by saying we wil wait until next month to see what occurs. they have to be conservative thus have to raise rates.Just remember the trimmed mean is well above the target level.

One Nation.

They won a state by-election in WA.This was highly unusual. It was a safe seat. The WA government is popular yet they lost the seat. A by-election always promotes a protest vote but this was enormous. This was after Hanson had no idea of the difference between net and permanent migration. In fact they probably have no idea that the NOM includes Australians coming back home!

Sex

I am getting old but a 16 year old girl dying because she was being strangled while having sex leaves  me gobsmacked. When I was 'growing up' it was 'erotic asphyxiation' and yes people died from it. I am at a loss why anyone would attempt to do anything that could kill them simply to gain an orgasm. Grow up people.

Whoopsy

GST

The productivity commission released a report on GST 'carveups'

WA is clearly the wealthiest state yet it gets a share of GSt that is way over the top.

See Shane Wright and Robert Breunig.  Grrrr

Around the Traps 28/8/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on israeli-ambassador-suggests-former-defence-chief-binskin-return-to-israel-to-pursue-frankcom-decision
• Jennifer Lacy-Nichols on australias-lobbying-rules-ignore-most-lobbyists-its-time-for-an-overhaul
• Bernard Doherty on who-are-the-brethren-and-what-do-they-believe-in 
• Laura Edwards et al on how-well-do-covid-antivirals-actually-work-not-as-well-as-we-thought
• Graham Wild on airport-runway-collisions-and-near-misses-are-happening-more-frequently-22-years-of-data-show
• Steve Georgakis on aussie-players-are-smashing-transfer-records-does-this-benefit-or-harm-australian-soccer
• Mark the Graph on qe-and-measured-natural-rate
• Melissa Davey on private-health-insurance-rebate-65-and-over 
• Greg Jericho on ai-boom-noisy-energy-hungry-datacentres-construction-economy 
• Shane Wright on this-dodgy-60b-deal-reeks-now-it-s-being-buried-in-pure-bulldust 
• Matteo Vergani on having-heard-mountains-of-evidence-the-antisemitism-royal-commission-now-faces-a-huge-challenge 
• John Hawkins on inflation-eases-less-than-expected-making-another-interest-rate-hike-more-likely
• Chris Murphy on the-pm-has-ruled-out-changing-was-gst-deal-but-theres-another-option-to-consider

OZ Climate

• not-a-bunch-of-yokels-armidale-mayor-lays-down-no-water-no-rez-demands-as-region-turns-dry
  
• like-a-fire-drill-for-the-grid-rooftop-solar-systems-to-be-switched-off-to-test-backstop-system
  
• solar-sharer-has-become-the-solar-shocker-with-the-costliest-of-retail-offers
  
• new-renewables-and-batteries-improve-grid-reliability-outlook-but-more-needs-to-get-built-on-time-aemo-says
  
• a-trojan-horse-for-communism-more-big-batteries-head-for-review-as-familiar-long-distance-objectors-pile-in-again
  
• linking-electricity-and-safeguards-could-make-wind-projects-viable-and-oblige-gentailers-to-actually-do-something
  
• bit-of-a-bloodbath-big-batteries-feel-the-pinch-of-coal-plant-extensions-and-household-battery-boom
  
• batteries-are-quickly-turning-gas-into-a-costly-sometimes-fuel-for-electricity-so-why-build-more
  
• intimidation-and-bullying-as-some-anti-wind-farmers-stage-a-fightback-others-are-counting-the-cost
  
• the-dirty-word-missing-from-the-debate-over-how-to-power-the-data-centre-boom
  
• cheaper-home-batteries-is-not-a-story-of-risk-ignored-it-is-one-of-risk-understood
  
• the-nems-first-solar-battery-hybrid-is-sending-power-to-the-grid-at-10pm-and-helping-reshape-the-energy-game
  
• after-anthony-albaneses-fold-on-data-centres-where-might-chris-bowen-be-curtailed-next
  
• paint-the-bloody-things-green-big-battery-developers-are-facing-local-push-back-are-they-ready
• Kevin Trenberth on how-will-this-years-record-breaking-el-nino-affect-nz-and-the-world-5-things-to-know
• Zoe Bainbridge and Rebecca Bartley on we-finally-have-some-encouraging-news-on-great-barrier-reef-water-quality
• Petra Stock on solar-sharer-energy-scheme-australia-three-free-hours-power-daily-more-expensive
• Ehsan Noroozinejad on australias-backdown-on-data-centres-allows-them-to-use-energy-from-coal-and-gas-heres-what-that-means

Northern America

• institutional economics on scott-bessent-and-financial-repression
• Kruggers on jared-bernstein-on-debt , debt-and-tax-cuts , the-moose-that-roared , losing-the-iran-war-the-economic , der-untergang , biden-derangement-syndrome
• Bryan Walsh on america-murder-rate-lowest-70-years 
• David Frum on why-us-canada-trade-talks-fell-apart
• noahpinion on are-we-watching-the-us-go-bankrupt , what-if-our-biggest-problems-arent-economic
• Tyler Cowen on more-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs
• Michael Dreeben on when-the-president-does-it 
• Hugh White on american-revolution-2-0-how-trump-has-changed-the-us-and-why-it-was-powerless-to-stop-him , trump-didn-t-cause-america-s-retreat-from-asia-he-s-the-symptom
• new deal democrat on the-latest-on-the-inflationary-expansion-of-2026-a-k-a-guns-butter-2 
• Cameron Peters on us-canada-trade-war-tariffs-trump-carney
• John Cassidy on the-humbling-of-scott-bessent 
• Bruce Schwartz et al on regular-special-grand-jury-powers
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-lisa-cook-trump-federal-reserve
• Mark the Graph on us-bonds-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-u-s-household-income-cycle-and-the-motio-rule 
• Eric Van Rhythoven on mark-carneys-defiance-canada-shows-the-world-how-to-respond-to-donald-trumps-threats
• Sarah Herschander on dolly-parton-philanthropy 
• Mark Danner on trumps-constitutional-dictatorship-regime-change-haberman-swan
• Bill McKibben on adam-hamilton-and-taking-back-religion-from-the-right 
• noahpinion on the-death-of-market-street 
• the conversable economist on is-us-government-debt-getting-riskier, gao-one-more-warning-on-us-federal-debt
• Lisa Needham on supreme-court-mail-voting-ballroom
• Harry Litman on the-other-side-of-dojs-corruption
• Brad De Long on nvidia-earnings-chart-of-the-day , rosspost-justin-wolfers-good-news-there-is-already-a-us/canada-trade-deal, the-us-federal-fiscal-flow-deficit-problem
• Jeet Heer on natalie-harp-trump-relationship-cult
• Adam Keith and Nina Moraitou-Politizi on rubio-wants-help-dismantling-icc

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on has-the-european-turnaround-finally-arrived , green-shoots-for-the-uk
• Timothy Ryback on nationalist-german-jews-max-naumann-hitler
• mainly macro on media-regulation-is-partly-about-protecting-individuals
• Doug Muir on why-ceuta-is-european-and-what-came-of-it

Asia

• Adam Farquhar on why-gaza-peace-deals-keep-unravelling
• Shiori Shakuto on what-sanae-takaichis-popularity-among-women-says-about-gender-equality-in-japan
• Mark Beeson on the-uncomfortable-success-of-china-s-climate-autocracy 
• Robert Kagan on iran-middle-east-power 
• Seon-Hyon Lee on trump-s-57-nukes-and-the-hollowing-out-of-north-korean-denuclearisation
• Martin Kear on israel-is-cementing-its-control-over-the-west-bank-and-east-jerusalem-while-the-world-is-distracted
• Jason Wilson on fake-thinktank-israel-ai-propaganda 
• Taha Rezaei and Mark Maslin on nepal-tibet-floods-when-disaster-strikes-before-communities-recover-from-previous-climate-extremes-crisis-escalates 
• Ligin Joseph on a-super-el-nino-could-make-indias-monsoon-drier-yet-more-dangerous
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on the-deadly-disease-blinding-the-west-to-who-is-winning-the-energy-transition
• Levan Tielidze on tsunami-of-dirt-what-caused-nepals-deadly-glacial-flood

Wonk

• Sam Kriss on the-carrion-eaters Thanks Nick
• Nils Gilman on the-goods-we-agreed-to-call-inputs Thanks Nick
• Joshua Gans on its-time-for-some-game-theory Thanks Nick
• Dean Ashendon on what-michael-young-actually-said Thanks Nick
• Rob Nicholls on 29-us-states-are-suing-meta-what-might-it-mean-for-the-rest-of-the-world
• Mark the Graph on yes-i-use-ai , weekly-energy-update
• Tim Harford on explain-it-to-me-like-im-ten 
• the conversable economist on even-sand-isnt-infinite , secular-stagnation-and-wealth-inequality-antecedents-and-lessons
• Brad De Long on the-white-collar-canaries-in-the-AI-job-loss-coal-mine
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-when-does-monetary-tightening-deflate-a-stock-market-bubble 
• Fan Yang on an-ai-job-boom-heres-what-the-tedious-temporary-work-in-data-labelling-is-actually-like
• Alex Tabarrok on democracy-and-caeserism

General

• Toby Davidson on australian-poetry-classics-francis-webb-the-20th-centurys-most-unjustly-neglected-poet-is-our-best-kept-literary-secret
• Helen Adam on beyond-harry-potter-five-books-you-can-enjoy-together-as-a-whole-family

Climate

• Phillip Oldfield and William Craft on were-building-a-new-york-sized-city-every-month-thats-worrying-for-our-climate 
• Damian Carrington on worlds-oceans-hit-hottest-temperature-on-record-in-august 
• Frisa Ginting and Dian Fiantis on borneo-forest-fires-spike-again-why-el-nino-isnt-the-sole-culprit
• David Appell on 4%-of-oregon-has-burned-this-year-so-far 
• skeptical science on ClimateAdam-emissions-are-flatlining-why-is-co2-rising-record-speed, fact-brief-windco2
• Bethany Dawson et al on climate-change-may-halve-omega-3-fatty-acids-in-fish-and-the-organisms-they-eat
• Nikolai Drahos on the-next-phase-of-global-methane-policy
• Benji Jones on coral-reef-climate-change-restoration-palau

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• this-is-one-of-the-worst-scientific-papers-ive-ever-seen
  
• failing-upward-norwegian-style
  
• to-the-three-people-who-sent-me-chatbot-emails-today
  
• head-to-head-on-125-st-the-jamaican-beef-patty-battle
  
• journal-of-statistics-and-data-science-in-sports
  
• head-to-head-on-125-st-the-jamaican-beef-patty-battle 
  
• journal-of-statistics-and-data-science-in-sports
  
• bayesian-workflow-free-pdf 
  
• survey-statistics-more-on-synthmargins-and-bayes-raking
  
• do
  
• professor authored 258 papers in 2026
• the-incredible-disappearing-ssrn-page
  
• what-stories-should-we-tell-about-science-now
  
• Kaiser Fung on if-you-must-label-people , what-can-one-believe

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Toril Moi on the-adulteress-wife Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now

Vox Wonk

• how-early-academic-rank-shapes-high-school-choices-and-admissions 
  
• small-and-stuck-why-european-firms-cant-scale 
  
• why-more-information-can-make-macroeconomic-expectations-less-accurate-global 
  
• why-europe-needs-eurobonds 
  
• digitalisation-and-credit-markets-evidence-einvoicing 
  
• when-trade-sanctions-increase-targets-trade 
  
• competition-or-collusion-entry-decisions-swedish-pharmaceutical-market 
  
• anatomy-supervisory-failure 
  
• inflation-rate-fell-many-workers-pay-cheques-did-not-keep 
  
• inflation-reduction-acts-regional-incentives-promoted-green-investment-did-not-create
  

Dolly Parton

 I should have written this yesterday.

I loathe country and western music so I was no fan of hers. She had a poor voice and a very limited vocal range. This was never more apparent than on her most famous song . Whenever she attempted to sing it she killed the song but Whitney Houston  sang it she hit it out of the park!!  ( it made her $20m) I should add her voice limitations never were a problem as she was a country and western singer/songwriter

I remembering reading somewhere a long time ago she was a sex symbol. Big breasts ( which she heavily 'advertised') do not a sex symbol make. She had a poor body, terrible hairstyles and was frankly unattractive. This did not matter and neither should it have.

Okay so much for the negatives. Now for her large positives.

She was one hell of a businesswoman. She left around 600 million. She was one of 11 children in a family so poor that when she was born her parents paid the doctor with food as they had no money. She thus never forgot her roots.

She was also a philanthropist of high distinction and had no problem in giving money to causes she valued from her fortune. Making more money was not of top of her list.

She wrote a lot of songs but for the love of it never to get more money. If that came then she was blessed if not she still liked the song.

She also married her high school sweetheart and was still married to him when he died.

It is unusual for a person to die and everyone has a good word about them. That is the greatest tribute you could give her!