Around the Traps 13/2/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adriahn Beaumont on why-preferential-voting-is-superior-to-first-past-the-post
• Jago Dodson and Liam Davies on how-cutting-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-could-help-rebalance-the-housing-market
• Kieran Hardy on is-australias-terrorism-definition-still-fit-for-purpose
• Bronwyn Cumbo on can-australia-build-one-of-the-worlds-largest-data-centres
• Andrea Carson and Finley Watson on yes-one-nations-poll-numbers-are-climbing-but-major-party-status-let-alone-government-is-still-a-long-way-off
• Simon Bronitt on was-the-violent-sydney-protest-avoidable-and-what-can-police-and-demonstrators-learn
• Luke Hartigan on what-exactly-is-inflation-and-are-interest-rates-the-only-option-for-dealing-with-it
• Antony Green on the-success-of-local-independents-kooyong
• Greg Jericho on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• Mick Ryan on australia-s-new-national-defence-strategy-must-embrace-adaptation-warfare-evolves

OZ Climate

• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• home-battery-numbers-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-rebate-launch-as-installers-take-a-beat
  
• pumped-hydro-is-vital-to-the-future-grid-so-why-does-gas-exploration-get-all-the-tax-benefits
  
• dont-reinvent-the-wheel-big-investors-fear-nem-reform-could-backfire-on-wind-industry
  
• plan-to-increase-fixed-network-costs-will-take-from-the-poor-give-to-the-rich-and-slash-returns-on-pv-and-batteries
  
• australias-key-emissions-reduction-policy-is-doing-a-great-job-of-safeguarding-gas-producers
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-learns-how-to-make-more-money-out-of-its-customers-and-big-battery-fleet
  
• moves-afoot-to-bring-balcony-solar-to-australia-and-new-wave-of-products-has-batteries-included
  
• origin-says-big-batteries-playing-well-with-ageing-fossils-but-wont-rule-out-new-gas-peakers
  
• australias-clean-energy-transition-has-been-powered-by-people-solar-for-renters-is-the-next-chapter
  
• Nick Whiterod et al on the-lower-murray-is-officially-on-life-support-will-we-save-it
• Adam Morton on there-will-never-be-a-better-time-to-revisit-carbon-pricing-in-australia-but-does-labor-have-the-stomach-to-make-polluters-pay

Northern America

• one first on 208-the-fifth-circuit-jumps-the-immigration-detention-shark Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Rauch on america-fascism-trump-maga-ice Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-debasement-trade-meets-the-warsh-steepener
• Grant Wyeth on exploiting-old-gripes-trump-s-grab-51st-state
• noahpinion on why-americas-extremes-will-both-fail
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101-part-ii-the-global- financial-crisis -and-its-aftermath , seduced-by-the-louis-xiv-treatment , no-ai-doesnt-justify-lower-interest , the-banality-of-maga-evil , making-america-stagnate-again
• Peter Wehner on evangelicals-trump-national-prayer-breakfast
• Eric Levitz on trump-midterms-2026-rigged-election-fulton-county-gabbard-bondi
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-military-harvard-donald-trump
• the conversable economist on asian-americans-two-alternate-histories , us-budget-deficits-spitting-into-the-wind
• home and away on the-end-of-shame
• Umair Irfan on epa-climate-endangerment-finding-trump-coal-fuel-economy
• Bill Haskell on costs-vs-benefits-for-clean-air
• Ricardo Hausman on america-credibility-problem-could-lead-to-rupture-if-not-addressed

Europe

• Sam Power on the-british-public-has-lost-faith-in-politics-the-peter-mandelson-scandal-must-be-a-wake-up-call-for-keir-starmer
• Jeremy Horder on what-exactly-is-misconduct-in-public-office-and-could-peter-mandelson-be-convicted
• Imran Khalid on rebranding-europe-s-energy-transition-climate-policy-survival
• Joy Neumeyer on poland-halfway-to-democracy-new-politics-of-poland
• Simon Schuster on zelensky-trump-peace-deal-ukraine-russia

Asia

• Aswin Lin on why-taiwan-dome-won-t-survive-chinese-attack
• Adam Simpson on japans-rock-star-leader-now-has-the-political-backing-to-push-a-bold-agenda-will-she-deliver
• noahpinion on the-takaichi-era-begins-for-real
• Gerhard Hofstaeder et al on rohingya-boats-out-mind-still-coming
• Syong-Hyon Lee on zhang-youxia-fallen-general
• Peter Chai and Willy Jou on power-surprise-how-takaichi-s-snap-election-delivered-ldp-landslide
• Mehmet Ozalp on how-irans-current-unrest-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1979-revolution

Wonk

• Noah Carl on why-are-intelligent-people-more-liberal Thanks Nick
• existential politics on the-tragedy-of-the-centre-left Thanks Nick
• cosmos institute on on-the-noble-uses-of-ai Thanks Nick
• Andy Masely on a-list-of-other-catastrophes-that-are-probably-fake Thanks Nick
• Jason Burke on 1970s-extremism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on when-psychologists-mislead-us
• Tyler Cowen on bryan-caplan-on-immigration-backlash
• the conversable economist on what-are-folk-economic-beliefs
• Doug Muir on the-stone-pillars-of-the-sons-of-seth
• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-marshall-thinking-clearly-about-the-global-authoritarian-movement
• Samir Ramzy on sudans-latest-peace-plan-whats-in-it-and-does-it-stand-a-chance

General

• Robert King on oh-hedy-days-of-youth Thanks Nick
• Janet Cetinkaya and Ian Kidd on why-aristotle-would-hate-valentines-day-and-his-five-steps-to-love

Climate

• real climate on koonins-continuing-calumnies , the-climate-science-reference-they-dont-want-judges-to-read
• Umair Irfan on energy-abundance-access-electricty-progress-africa-oceania-energy-poverty
• Damian Carrington on point-of-no-return-hothouse-earth-global-heating-climate-tipping-points
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• anti
  
•  hey-heres-100000-down-the-drain
• review-of-string-theory-book-from-2004
  
• a-consensus-but-its-a-consensus-of-uncertainty
  
• my-talk-this-wed-noon-at-the-columbia-statistics-department-student-seminar
  
• survey-statistics-more-on-recalled-vote
  
• sethi-on-betting-on-geopolitical-violence
  
• the-new-york-young-republican-club-but-this-time-with-no-butt-plugs-or-dildos
  
• what-a-multiverse-good-for-anyway
  
• Kaiser Fung on snow-math , alternatives-to-radar-chart-1
• statschat on coffee-brain , briefly
• freakometrics on  natural disasters avoidable or unpredictable disasters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on assessing-brink-lindseys-the-permanent-problem

Vox Wonk

• generative-ai-german-firms-diffusion-costs-and-expected-economic-effects
  
•  future-under-glass
• showing-alps-economic-value-davos
  
• immigration-restrictions-and-natives-intergenerational-mobility-evidence-1920s-us 
  
• ai-investment-gdp-growth-ecosystem-view
  
• mapping-contours-chinese-policy-transmission-home-and-abroad
  
• when-war-weakens-democracy
  

If Angus Taylor is the answer then you have asked the wrong question

 The Opposition is in a real pickle. The last election was one of their worst ever defeats. Given the government's lack of achievements and their uninspiring leader then the reason surely has to be with the Opposition.

One view is the Nationals has supported policies that cost votes in the cities. I suspect this is on the money.

The next is the rise of one nation and the nationals response has been to go further to the populist right.

The Liberals have a decision to make. Is the future to regain the centre from the ALP or march further to the right.

Taylor thus far has yet to offer any solutions to the Liberals future. He is far from eloquest. His ministerial career has been poor, He frequently said base load power and dispatchable power  was the same thing. It aint. Coal fired power is base load power but is not dispatchable.

Ley has not had a fair go although in politics that is par for the course.

Answers to the last election loss are all over the place. Hastie for example wants to protect industry and so build it up. Others influenced by sky after dark want to move further to the right.

Ley clearly wants to move to the centre but has a disunited party.

Replacing her with Taylor does not fill me with any confidence. In normal times you would expect the liberals to have a largish swing towards them in the next election simply because of the last result. In an ironic move the surge in one nation may obviate this.

My only advice to the liberals is to move to the centre.

It has all been very sad

 It was a disgrace that people could not march to parliament house in sydney. however once the court made the decision that should have been that. no-one came out of that looking good.

THe pro=palestinian people gain showed no political nous.

The police looked highly undisciplined and suffering from a lack of training. clearly they escaladed things. They were there to do the opposite.

However the person who came out of the whole mess the worse was Chris Minns. The legislation clearly was not needed. There had been no violence previously. It was the legislation that promoted the violence. Minns clearly and consistently conflated the bondi massacre and pro-palestine marches. As yet he has asserted this without a shred of evidence. Does he actually believe this nonsense? Is he merely succumbing to pressure from the jewish lobby?

Allied to this was the assertion made on four corners by an ex-asio agent believing the two terrorists were radicalised a lot earlier ie  well before Israel's genocidal behaviour towards palestinians.

I might end by saying there is nothing wrong with asserting globalise the intifada. The intifada can ONLY occur in one specific geographical place. It aint sydney. If anyone expresses the phrase they are merely saying publicise the intifada so palestinians get justice. to say it explicitly supports against jews is absurd and misinformation. 

Herzog should NEVER have been invited

 Albo invited the Israeli President to Australia. It showed poor judgement.

It involved two major problems.

Firstly the incident had NOTHING to do with Palestinians or Israel's genocidal actions on them. Herzog's disgraceful words saying all Palestinians are responsible for October 7 is to all extents irrelevant to what occurred at Bondi. However it will undoubtedly get tangled up with it.

Secondly it will exacerbate deadly tropes about Jews and where their loyalties lie.

Battery update

 Our latest bill is $115. 

two things of note. The battery was not put in until the quarter had started.

My wife had the air conditioner on for a few nights which not only used up the battery but also meant we used the grid.

We do know now the dishwasher, washing machine, microwave do not take up much energy.

The big things are heating the water for the showers and the stove and oven.

We bought a 16 kw battery. If we bought a 50kw one we probably would need the grid.

Around the Traps 6/2/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-low-impact-of-independent-preferences-in-2025
• Antony Green on here-we-go-again-the-future-of-the-national-party , one-nations-poll-surge-the-first-25-seats-to-watch
• institutional economics on three-cuts-forward-four-hikes-back
• Greg Jericho on rba-interest-rates-decision-analysis-reserve-bank-australia
• Stella Huangfu on rba-raises-interest-rates-as-inflation-pressures-remain-high
• Chris Sidoti on albanese-can-still-withdraw-the-invitation-to-israels-president-he-should-do-so-for-the-sake-of-social-cohesio
• Kurt Sengel and Jordan McSweeney on can-one-nation-turn-its-polling-hype-into-seats-in-parliament-history-shows-it-will-struggle
• Meg Elkins on what-the-rba-wants-australians-to-do-next-to-fight-inflation-or-risk-more-rate-hikes
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on is-federal-government-spending-really-to-blame-for-higher-inflation-its-not-clear-cut
• Levi West on why-did-it-take-9-days-to-declare-the-perth-bombing-attempt-a-terrorist-attack
• Carolin Kautz on canal-without-paddle-lessons-panama-australia

OZ Climate

• will-australia-reach-its-renewable-targets-on-time-it-will-need-a-lot-more-wind-and-solar
  
• locals-consider-options-after-losing-court-appeal-against-solar-farm-approval
  
• battery-prices-plunge-60-pct-in-two-years-changing-face-of-grid-and-the-nature-of-contracts
  
• big-batteries-are-pushing-down-current-and-expected-prices-in-the-evening-peaks
  
• rebates-strapped-a-rocket-to-home-battery-demand-but-has-rooftop-solar-peaked
  
• a-rule-change-request-snuck-in-over-christmas-could-radically-alter-how-the-main-grid-functions
  
• nsw-awards-contracts-to-six-huge-8-hour-battery-projects-including-the-biggest-in-australia
  
• wind-and-solar-curtailment-beneath-the-headline-numbers-from-2025
• first-solar-battery-hybrid-sends-power-into-evening-peak-heralding-radical-changes-for-australias-main-grid-changes-for-australias-main-grid
  
• Tony Wood on renewables-over-50-wholesale-prices-down-is-the-energy-transition-succeeding
• Duygu Yengin et al on why-cheaper-power-alone-isnt-enough-to-end-energy-poverty-in-summer

Northern America

• institutional economics on dollar-dominance-with-chinese-characteristics
• one percent brighter on the-venetian-option Thanks Nick
• Michael Ignatieff on lament for a nation Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hartwich on donald-trump-the-kaiser-in-mar-a-lago Thanks Nick
• Brian Blank and Brandy Hadley on 3-things-to-know-about-kevin-warsh-trumps-nod-for-fed-chair
• Eric Levitz on alex-pretti-new-video-ice-ai-trump
• the conversable economist on tariffs-and-inflation-where-are-we , when-social-security-went-haywire-in-the-1970s
• thinking about on ethnic-cleansing-in-ohio Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on federal-reserve-101 , kevin-warsh-and-weathervane-economics , american-democracy-will-not-die-in-darkness , profiles-in-cowardice-tariff-edition , is-this-cryptos-fimbulwinter , american-decency-still-lives
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-republicans-court-packing-utah-georgia-arizona , trump-minneapolis-minnesota-justice-department-broken
• Alyssa Rosenberg on melania-trump-documentary-first-lady-cash-grabs
• stay at home on kevin-warsh Thanks Tyler
• noahpinion on what-a-liberal-immigration-enforcement-might-look-like
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-new-start-nuclear-arms-race
• Adam Serwer on masks-ice-immigration
• Fintan O'Toole on the-crime-of-witness
• Isaac Chotiner on is-ice-leading-us-into-a-constitutional-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on when-tariffs-hit-home caligula revisited
• Shirin Ali on ice-agents-nice-little-database-google-meta-surveillance
• Alex Tabarrok on trumps-pharmaceutical-plan
• Ashley Parker on washington-post-layoffs-bezos
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-corruption-uae-bribes , tulsi-gabbard-georgia-raid-election

Europe

• programmable mutter on europe-has-more-bargaining-strength-than-it-thinks thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on how-british-queues-got-out-of-hand
• Fred Kaplan on nato-exercise-without-america-rupture-europe
• Rod Thornton and Marina Miron on trump-wants-ukraine-to-give-up-the-donbas-in-return-for-security-guarantees-it-could-be-fatal-for-kyiv
• Martin Farr on the-fall-of-peter-mandelson-and-the-many-questions-the-uk-government-must-now-answer
• Michael Holz on the-assault-on-ukraines-power-grid

Asia

• Nicholas Coppell on us-policy-post-election-myanmar
• Shameek Godara on india-eu-trade-deal-beyond-mother-all-deals
• Haroro Ingram on unseen-front-philippines-china-challenge
• Piers Pigou on china-s-security-offerings-gain-traction-africa
• Yunyun Wahyuningram on rohingya-case-could-redefine-genocide-matters-asean
• Abhijnan Rej on bangladesh-s-election-can-culture-counter-extremism
• Phillip Saunders on xi-s-military-purges-will-make-him-wary-invading-taiwan

Wonk

• Hal Brands on trump-is-making-the-world-hedge-its-bets Thanks Nick
• Catherine Dee on andrew-tate-is-the-loneliest-bastard-on-earth Thanks Nick
• Alexander Kustov on the-uncomfortable-truths-about-immigration Thanks Nick
• Angel Zhong and Jason Tian on silver-and-gold-hit-record-highs-then-crashed-before-joining-the-rush-you-need-to-know-this
• noahpinion on what-if-ai-succeeds-but-openai-fails , international-financial-anarchy, p/the-fall-of-the-nerds
• Henry Maher on why-trumps-new-pick-for-fed-chair-hit-gold-and-silver-markets-for-good-reasons
• Peter Balonen-Rosen and Noel King on trump-foreign-policy-western-hemisphere-donroe-china-russia
• Arijan Shukla on hidden-cost-central-bank-independence
• Henry Yep on war-games-thriving-strategic-turbulence
• Sandy Holloway on mark-carney-wrong-about-rules-based-order
• the conversable economist on winter-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online

General

• Ben McCann on funny-tender-goofy-catherine-ohara-lit-up-the-screen-every-time-she-showed-up
• Claire Collins on does-coffee-raise-your-blood-pressure-heres-how-much-its-ok-to-drink
• Emlyn Dodd on olives-have-been-essential-to-life-in-italy-for-at-least-6-000-years-far-longer-than-we-thought
• John Horner on a-new-comet-was-just-discovered-will-it-be-visible-in-broad-daylight

Climate

• Jawad Khalid on climate-change-shared-problem-needs-shared-solutions
• skeptical science on polar-vortex-warm-ocean-storm , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-pantheon-of-celebrity-billionaires
  
• from-the-mixed-up-files-of-jeffrey-e-epstein
  
• for-gods-sake-dont-donate-to-the-international-peace-institute-unless-you-want-to-pay-for-corrupt-assholes-to-fly-first-class-around-the-world-to-give-speeches-about-how-everyone-needs-to
  
• a-counterintuitive-example-where-a-strong-prior-pulls-an-estimate-in-the-wrong-direction
  
• parallelizing-mcmc-across-the-sequence-length-this-one-is-really-cool
  
• 5-flavors-of-calibration
  
• statistics is 
• softly-effectively-in-the-age-of-genai
  
• sunstein-on-kissinger-no-opinion-on-the-whole-war-criminal-thing-but-the-generosity-that-he-showed-when-talking-about-star-wars-the-movie-not-the-weapons-program-was-incomparable
  
• Freakometrics on balance and calibration of probabilistic scores  insurance biases discrimination and fairness , criminal records
• Kaiser Fung on visualizing-hierarchies , four-reasons-to-unplug-radar-charts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• january-hibernation-reading-a-catch-up
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , paul-celan-a-life-by-anna-arno

vox wonk

• market-value-non-degree-credentials-new-evidence-37-million-us-workers 
  
• stablecoins-and-exorbitant-privilege-money-creation
  
• how-tariff-war-shock-affected-safe-asset-privilege-us-treasuries 
  
• fdi-and-growth-age-global-value-chains 
  
• us-tariffs-may-deepen-integration-elsewhere
  
• europes-us-holdings-leverage-lies-marginal-demand
  
• europes-public-finances-warming-world
  

One Nation

 It is time to examine One Nation's rise.

In some polls they are more popular than the Liberals. As the late Julius Sumner Miller would say why is this so?

Firstly where is it occurring? It is mostly in the regions and it is mostly national party seats at risk. The people who have switched their votes are low educated and low income people mostly male.

In some ways it is understandable. The coalition has broken up twice since the last election so why vote for either party when they are fighting each other. Herein lies a great irony. No party has infighting like One Nation.

We can be pretty sure they have not switched voted because of policies because no-one knows what policies One Nation supports except a racist immigration program. Multi-culturisn is not as popular in the regions and sometimes has not reached them.

History shows it is unlikely One Nation can thrive. When they talk they are incoherent. They are reliant on Hanson who looks very old. Now they are rising in the polls they will have to produce policies.

Also  important is where liberal preferences go if they finish behind one nation on first preferences. Will they direct preferences to obvious morons?

Let us assume One Nation adopts policies similar to the Nationals. In the past two elections this has cost the liberals big time in the cities where it matters.

Put me in the unlikely camp on whether one nation thrives. They will get more media exposure and thus more times to show they have little idea of what to do. At present they only get exposed to 'friendly' media. ( Funny how Gerry Henderson hasn't noticed that!). Watch out when they are regularly on mainstream media.

There will be bust ups as they always occur. most people think realistically they are smarter than Hanson and do not like the grifting of some in one nation.

So yes I am a sceptic they will become the leading conservative party. In theory it should hurry up for the Liberals and Nationals to bury the hatched