Around the Traps 15/5/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Janda on what-if-we-used-taxes-or-superannuation-to-control-inflation Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on finding-r-star-after-great-divergence , a-budget-about-today-dressed-in-the-language-of-tomorrow
• Adrian Beaumont on one-nation-wins-farrer-byelection-as-liberal-vote-crashes
• Donald Rothwell on is-linked-women-are-facing-a-raft-of-criminal-charges-a-legal-expert-explains-the-laws-at-play
• Clarke Jones on whats-next-for-the-isis-families-this-is-how-de-radicalisation-programs-work-in-australia
• Josh Sunman on with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate-farrer-success-in-victoria-and-federally
• Philip Laird on after-dumping-inland-rail-australia-has-no-plan-to-stop-relying-on-diesel-trucks-for-freight
• Frank Bongiorno on budget-2026-australia-labor-albanese-chalmers-howard-era-over
• Stephen Bartos on a-budget-with-a-bundle-of-reforms-in-a-time-of-extreme-uncertainty
• Anthony Scott on specialist-doctors-are-charging-too-much-4-options-to-rein-in-excessive-fees 
• Sarah Cameron et al on one-nations-rise-may-seem-sudden-but-it-follows-long-term-voter-trends 
• Antony Green on farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition
• Greg Jericho on the-budget-in-seven-graphs-no-big-surprises-but-this-may-be-one-of-the-most-ambitious-moves-to-fix-australias-finances
• Josh Butler on labor-dropped-their-long-awaited-gambling-report-on-budget-day-were-they-betting-no-one-would-notice 
• Ross Gittins on it-pains-me-to-say-nice-things-about-politicians-but-this-is-a-good-budget
• John Hawkins on get-ready-for-a-budget-slowdown-but-chalmers-insists-we-wont-see-a-recession
• Aruna Sathanapally and Mathew Bowes on will-this-budget-really-make-housing-fairer-for-more-australians-its-a-good-start
• Andrew Whitehouse on as-the-definition-of-autism-expands-are-we-losing-sight-of-those-with-the-greatest-needs
• Jeannie Paterson on coles-discounts-misled-shoppers-court-rules-it-could-face-hundreds-of-millions-in-fines

OZ Climate

• they-solve-the-problem-leading-storage-developer-says-battery-costs-have-plunged-70-pct-in-two-years
  
• landholder-led-4-hour-big-battery-gets-federal-environmental-all-clear-in-just-over-four-weeks
  
• from-cars-to-coastal-shipping-we-can-electrify-almost-everything-according-to-electrification-staircase 
  
• australias-data-centre-dilemma-will-they-bring-an-energy-boom-or-bust 
  
• batteries-swamp-gas-big-wind-crunches-coal-in-a-month-of-new-records-on-australias-main-grids 
  
• winter-can-bring-you-new-energy-installing-a-small-power-station-and-interrogate-you-bills 
  
• developer-of-australias-biggest-renewable-projects-says-it-can-offer-super-cheap-deals-for-data-centres 
  
• more-complex-and-deeper-than-i-had-imagined-energy-czar-sees-rise-in-solar-project-complaints 
  
• aemo-should-be-split-in-two-transmission-put-in-public-ownership-in-new-push-for-overhaul-of-failed-nem
  
• revamped-gippsland-wind-project-wins-state-approval-but-still-to-win-over-some-near-neighbours 
  
• big-batteries-took-a-bite-out-of-gas-generators-evening-peak-party-then-they-ate-the-whole-dinner 
• banks-are-no-longer-financing-the-energy-transition-on-faith-and-are-declining-deals-they-once-would-do
  
• Kimberly Reid on why-has-this-autumn-been-so-hot-and-dry 

Northern America

• institutional economics on from-taco-to-nacho
• Dan Moynihan on power-democracy-and-clarity Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on do-billionaires-earn-their-money , trump-actually-started-to-decouple-america-from-china
• dead for tax reasons on so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-pharmacare
• Kruggers on will-our-hyper-gilded-age-usher-in-genuine-populism ,  is-europe-in-economic-decline , modeling-the-us-europe-paradox-very-wonkish , what-happens-when-americans-realize-how-miserable-we-are , the-apotheosis-of-willful-ignorance , why-did-trump-take-elon-musk-to-china
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-voting-rights-citizens-united , supreme-court-virginia-gerrymander-scott-mcdougle-jay-jones
• Tyler Cowen on why-are-stock-prices-still-so-high
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-alabama-voting-sotomayor-dissent-alito
• David Cole on the-second-redemption-voting-rights-act 
• Sudarsan Roghavan on the-art-of-the-ceasefire
• Zack Beauchamp on liberals-far-right-obama-carney-global-progress-action 
• Christian Paz on trump-religious-right-christian-nationalism-biblical-christian-nation-religion-prayer
• Andrew Prokop on economy-inflation-trump-expectations-price-level

Europe

• Ben Wellings on local-elections-reveal-the-deep-fracturing-of-uk-politics-and-put-the-writing-on-the-wall-for-keir-starmer
• Fred Kaplan on russia-ukraine-victory-day-putin-parade-war
• Stephen Coleman on english-local-elections-2026-a-story-of-a-new-kind-of-politics
• Jon Richardson on russia-doesnt-have-much-to-celebrate-on-victory-day-as-ukraine-brings-the-war-home-to-putin
• Nicholas Dickinson on ousting-keir-starmer-is-harder-than-it-looks-party-rules-mean-he-can-choose-to-keep-fighting
• Eric Shaw on andy-burnhams-big-challenge-the-route-to-succeeding-starmer-is-littered-with-obstacles
• Marcus Colla on sir-keir-starmer-ghosts-europe
• Joshua Yaffa on rumors-of-instability-in-moscow
• Mainly Macro on why-has-westminster-politics-become-so-dumb 
• Charles Lees on who-are-the-main-contenders-to-replace-keir-starmer-as-prime-minister

Asia

• David Aaronovitch on israel-has-finally-lost-the-west Thanks Nick
• Amra Lee on israels-destructive-actions-in-lebanon-are-normalising-war-without-rules
• Tom Harper on china-has-played-a-key-role-in-the-iran-war-and-will-continue-to-do-so
• Anton Ponomarenko on north-korea-s-battlefield-dividend
• Kerry Brown on trump-china-13-out-10-problem
• Shanthie D'Sousa on bollywood-s-bluster-block-gulf
• Schoni Song on south-korea-s-chance-reel-maritime-influence
• Robert Kagan on iran-war-trump-losing 
• Meredith Jones on iran-is-threatening-undersea-cables-the-worlds-digital-chokepoints-have-never-been-more-vulnerable 
• 
  

Wonk

• Doug Bates on the-irony-of-stoic-conceit Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update
• Tim Harford on when-persistence-prevails
• Jeffrey McGee and Richard Rowe on antarctic-diplomacy-s-back-basics-test
• Robert Walker on export-bans-wrong-way-go-back
• David Nellor on economic-forecasts-have-never-been-more-prominent-or-less-reliable 
• Lynne O'Donnell on us-minerals-mafia-report-reveals-battle-china-next-industrial-era 
• noahpinion on tyrants-are-losing-wars
• Tyler Cowen on ideas-behind-their-time- part2 , some-non-obvious-reasons-why-ai-will-create-some-transitional-problems-in-employment
• Abhijnan Rei on odds-racket-prediction-markets
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-global-defense-spending 
• Ian Wright et al on we-proved-these-forever-chemicals-can-last-longer-than-three-decades 
• Chris Dillow on on-transferable-skills

General

• Megan Willis on what-is-the-grey-rock-method-for-dealing-with-narcissists-or-difficult-family-members
• Craig Dalton on ive-investigated-a-hantavirus-outbreak-heres-what-i-can-tell-you-about-the-cruise-ship-cluster
• Rhys Parry on hantavirus-is-very-different-to-covid-heres-why-the-andes-virus-wont-cause-the-next-pandemic
• Janne Torkola on why-are-there-so-many-lizards-in-australia-the-ancient-climate-holds-a-clue
• Julien Cooper et al on we-found-hundreds-of-huge-ancient-mass-graves-hidden-in-the-sahara-desert
• Darius Sporzynski on guide-to-the-classics-all-for-one-and-one-for-all-the-enduring-appeal-of-the-three-musketeers
• Dominik Koll on stardust-trapped-in-antarctic-ice-reveals-tens-of-thousands-of-years-of-solar-systems-past

Climate

• ocean acidification on projected-future-of-african-marine-ecosystems-under-climate-change-and-stratospheric-aerosol-injection
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on urban-trees-cool-the-worlds-cities-more-than-we-thought-but-we-cant-rely-on-them-alone
• Ayurella Horn-Muller on climate-crisis-crops-failing-worker-heat-groceries
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-pick-the-winner-picker-heuristic-preference-for-categorically-correct-forecasts
  
• an-axiomatic-foundation-for-decisions-with-counterfactual-utility
  
• more-thoughts-regarding-comfortable-powerful-people-who-seem-willing-or-even-eager-to-blow-up-the-system
  
• who-wanted-trump-to-run-in-2024
  
• it-kinda-makes-sense-for-you-to-know-about-700-people
  
• the-application-matters-medical-ethics-and-counterfactual-utilities 
  
• survey-statistics-relevant-alternatives
  
• recent-discoveries-on-the-persistence-of-statistical-fallacies
  
• dc-conventional-wisdom-goes-down-to-defeat-in-state-after-state 
  
• as 
  
• alchemize-pymcs-model-to-replace-stan-pymc-etc-with-an-llm
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the Atlantic on summer-reading-2026

Vox Wonk

• chris-sims-and-role-money-economic-fluctuations 
  
• identifying-monetary-policy-shocks-newspapers-using-gpt 
  
• how-get-green-and-deal-recalibrating-eu-industrial-policy
  
• chinas-real-estate-reckoning-lessons-japans-lost-decade 
  
• how-uk-firms-are-responding-war-iran-early-evidence-decision-maker-panel 
  
• when-ruler-made-thing-it-measures-multi-model-evidence-ai-occupational-exposure 
  
• different-effects-oil-and-gas-supply-shocks-euro-area-inflation 
  
• impact-emissions-trading-systems-manufacturing-installation-productivity-evidence 
  
• some-chickens-are-coming-home-roost-eu-fiscal-policies-2025
  

the Budget

 Okay here are a few views:

• Stephen Bartos
• John Hawkins
• Ross Gittins
• Greg Jericho
• Nicki Hutley

(If any others come in late I will  link them as well.)

I agree with all three and like ross Gittins am pleasantly surprised by the budget.

A couple of points.

1. It is about time someone di something about CGT and negative gearing ever since howard and costello gave first home buyers the middle finger. The benefits are highly skewed towards very high income earners See
2. A lot of people are missing the productivity improvements. they are somewhat nebulous as the  programs have few figures etc but they are substantive.
3. The structural deficit improves which means there is mild contraction in fiscal policy and overall a deficit of only 1% of GDP is small just ask the yanks.
4. The improvement in fiscal policy relies a lot on NDIS cutbacks. Will the pollies have the backbone for it. however the improvements are more long term rather than short or even medium term

I laughed at Mark Bouris's reaction. Can someone ask him how many negatively eared properties he has please. It is a lot!!!

• Ken Henry

Antony Green on Farrer

 I have put this article on yesterday's post but on reflection it deserves a post of its own.

Here it is

farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition

this is easily the most thoughtful piece on the result I have read. The most basic message. One Nation is an electoral threat to the ALP BUT they are an existential threat to the LNP!!!

The Farrer by-election.

 Before I start here are some articles:

• farrer-by-election-live
  
•  view-from-the-hill-post-farrer-liberals-will-struggle-with-awkward-questions-about-their-relations-with-one-nation 
• with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate-farrer-success-in-victoria-and-federally 
  
• ignore-the-polls-one-nation-is-the-unofficial-opposition 
  

Let us put this into perspective. One Nation has taken a seat from Liberal heartland and made it a safe one nation seat.

This is despite a miserable campaign from their candidate and one nation having to 'release from staff a convicted rapist. ( Imagine the furore if albo had to get rid of an convicted rapist on their staff!).

Nothing stuck. voters did not care

The independent candidate was labelled a teal because wait for it she took some money from climate 200. Did her policies mirror those of Teal mp's? Well no.

Thus you had sheer hypocrisy. Criticising the one nation candidate was a personal attack but doing it to the independent candidate was fair game.

This result means that in the regions there is no safe Liberal or National seat. One Nation on this result will take a lot of 'safe' LNP seats. ( remember what I said about Littleproud resigning!). The Nationals will become a rump party!

The more the Liberals ( and Nationals) advocate one nation type policies the more their safe city seats become 'Tealy'.

Do the math. It is possible one nation becomes the largest party after the next election. However one problem for one nation is that preferences will flow to them from either the Liberals or Nationals in regional australia however it is doubtful this will be as consistent in the outer western seats. Just remember a person voting Liberal will know preferences is now not just an academic exercise!

The major question now is whether voters will overlook one nation quirks and failures. They clearly did not do this with Farley and with at least one candidate in the SA election. At present they do not get interviewed by anyone who is not seen as sympathetic to them.

We live in interesting times

Late but a great article. Antony Green on farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition

Around the Traps 8/5/26

 it is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Saam Roggeveen on canberra-can-t-want-alliance-more-washington-does
• Adam Andreotto on ai-road-safety-cameras-are-fuelling-a-surge-in-driver-fines-are-they-fair
• Michelle Grattan on antisemitism-royal-commissions-interim-report-leaves-key-questions-dangling
• Nicki Hutley on rba-governors-frank-message-on-the-economy-is-the-biggest-shock
• Stella Huangfu on with-no-easy-options-rba-raises-interest-rates-for-the-third-time-to-quell-inflation
• Gabrielle Appleby on is-australian-democracy-eroding
• Richard Neuman on why-your-next-car-most-likely-be-ev-made-china
• Mark the Graph on finding-r-star-after-great-divergence
• Greg Jericho on in-this-budget-all-eyes-are-on-cgt-but-labors-rumoured-family-trust-tweaks-might-also-help-fight-tax-inequality
• Ben Saul on islamic-state-wives-return-is-no-threat-but-our-cruelty-to-their-kids-is-shameful
• Tina Soliman-Hunter on the-governments-plans-to-bolster-australias-fuel-stores-are-sensible-but-5-years-too-late
• Hiya Harinandini et al on beyond-model-minority-rethinking-australia-s-indian-diaspora
• Kevin Morrison on australian-gas-exporters-will-be-forced-to-set-aside-local-supply-for-domestic-users

OZ Climate

• six-wind-farms-two-solar-hybrids-and-seven-hour-batteries-win-key-cis-tenders-ahead-of-coal-closure
  
• huge-wind-and-battery-project-becomes-first-to-seal-local-benefits-deal-under-rigorous-new-planning-regime
  
• no-more-dark-side-of-the-grid-the-fossil-fuel-empire-loses-ground-to-renewables-and-storage
  
• big-batteries-set-new-charging-records-despite-lack-of-price-volatility
  
• ninety-landholders-3-mobs-two-100-tonne-transformers-90-km-of-cable-marinus-links-long-road-to-coal-country
  
• aussie-researchers-harness-ai-to-help-unlock-cheap-scalable-non-toxic-solar-recycling
  
• record-battery-output-big-winds-push-monthly-gas-generation-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-two-decades
  
• rebate-frenzy-shatters-records-for-home-batteries-and-doubles-year-on-year-rooftop-solar-growth
  
• why-australias-biggest-isolated-grid-now-leads-rest-of-country-in-race-to-reach-80-pct-renewables
  
• worlds-islanded-grids-are-test-beds-for-high-penetration-renewables-storage-and-advanced-controls
  
• nsw-to-fast-track-approvals-for-key-wind-solar-and-network-projects-in-race-to-quit-coal-and-power-smelter
  
• how-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-became-kryptonite-to-big-coal-and-the-fossil-fuel-industry
  
• blows-your-mind-regulator-says-boom-in-home-batteries-and-pv-puts-82-pct-renewables-within-reach
  
• the-spot-mirage-low-wholesale-prices-show-the-future-but-are-a-poor-signal-for-new-wind-and-solar
  
• federal-labor-unveils-plans-for-fossil-gas-reservation-to-ensure-share-of-production-is-not-exported
• i-thought-this-was-impossible-fortescue-green-grid-rides-through-transmission-failure-with-no-fossil-fuels
  
• Haidee Cadd et al on lake-mud-reveals-7-000-years-of-kangaroo-islands-complex-fire-history 
• Petra Stock on second-driest-april-nsw-likely-el-nino-australia-weather

Northern America

• institutional economics on us-productivity-growth-treasury-yields
• Kruggers on how-trump-screwed-himself , curing-us-health-care-part-ii , the-death-star-administration , dont-cry-for-jeff-bezoss-yacht , the-super-rich-are-different-from , unlocked-repost-curing-us-health
• Lydia Khalil on trump-gutted-very-programs-designed-protect-him
• noahpinion on californias-billionaire-tax-is-the-wrong-approach , barack-obama-was-a-successful-president
• Nicholas Grossman on trump-iran-war-reality-check
• Astead Heardon on heather-cox-richardson-america-at-250-grade-history
• Jeff McCausland on hegseth-iran-testimony-house-armed-services
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-news-todd-blanche-pam-bondi-fail
• Molly Omstead on trump-no-kings-alabama-penis-grandma-trial-protest
• Trent Bridgeman and Brian Finnicane on iran-hostilities-war-powers-restart-clock
• Ken dilaniaan and Carol Leonnig on fbi-investigating-leaks-to-journalist-who-wrote-explosive-article-on-kash-patel-sources
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-voting-rights-citizens-united , louise-lucas-fbi-raid-fox-news-todd-blanche , virginia-supreme-court-gerrymandering-decision-republicans-win
• David Cole on the-second-redemption-voting-rights-act
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-iran-christopher-caldwell-american-decline, ken-martin-dnc-autopsy-pod-save-america
• democracy docket on bert-callais-plaintiff-case-gutted-voting-rights-act-election-conspiracist-jan-6
• Liz Dye on alito-callais

Europe

• James Paterson on hungary-shows-illiberal-regimes-can-be-beaten-harder-question-whether-they-can-be
• Tyler Cowen on the-ordinary-men-of-the-nazi-party
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-russia-war-iran-drones
• mainly macro on uk-decline-and-stylised-empirical-facts.html?utm_source=follow.it
• Vladimir Bortun on after-a-year-of-reform-uk-in-local-government-the-cracks-are-starting-to-show
• Jon Richardson on russia-doesnt-have-much-to-celebrate-on-victory-day-as-ukraine-brings-the-war-home-to-putin
• Isaac Chotiner on the-uks-antisemitism-problem

Asia

• Nischal Dhungel on when-tankers-stop-tractors-stop
• Henry Storey on asean-s-rules-origin-problem
• Martin Kear on netanyahu-has-pledged-to-finish-the-job-against-hezbollah-its-a-promise-he-cant-deliver-on
• Amin Saikal and Amitav Archarya on no-fear-of-roaring-lions-iran-has-a-long-history-of-standing-firm-against-outside-aggressors
• Lynne O'Donnell on beijing-arrived-late-war-it-cannot-end
• Vivek Krishnamurthy on the-method-in-irans-madness-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-echoes-a-centuries-old-danish-play-and-is-a-tragedy-for-the-world-order
• Cicept Hidayat and Sondang Sirait on indonesia-democracy-without-collapse
• Thomas Wright on how-trump-got-iran-wrong
• Christopher de Bellaigue on irans-new-winter
• Ishaan Tharoor on how-the-iran-war-is-shifting-power-toward-china
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-peace-deal-war-news-oil

Wonk

• David Runciman on gangster politics Thanks Nick
• Martin McKenzie-Murray on heres-piety-your-eye Thanks Nick
• Nicholas Humphrey on you-know-what-consciousness-is-you-live-in-soul-land thanks Nick
• the drying of the isles on the-drying-of-the-isles Thanks Nick
• Sally Hammond on think-tanks-have-defeated-democracy Thanks Nick
• Luke Carman on getting-square-in-a-jerking-circle Thanks Nick
• Howard Wiseman on physicists-have-measured-negative-time-in-the-lab
• Mark the Graph on update-on-iran-war-mexican-standoff , weekly-energy-update
• mainly macro on capital-and-right-wing-populism , should-government-compensate-consumers-for-cost-of-living-shocks
• Tim Harford on lessons-from-your-petrol-pump
• the conversable economist on spring-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online , the-worlds-most-populous-city-builds-mass-transit
• Abhinandan Kumar on un-not-broken-it-was-built-way
• noahpinion on ais-big-messaging-pivot , could-development-economics-be-more-useful
• Chris Dillow on hating-freedom
• Home and away on the-choice-to-end-a-war-of-choice
• Chris Ogden on iran-wants-oil-tariffs-paid-in-chinese-yuan-is-the-power-of-the-us-petrodollar-in-decline

General

• Alberto Filgueiras on arsenal-might-be-choking-again-in-englands-premier-league-here-are-4-psychological-fixes
• Euan Ritchie on from-fossicking-for-fossils-to-a-champion-for-life-on-earth-sir-david-attenborough-at-100

Climate

• Larelle Bossi on quiet-contradiction-heart-energy-transition
• Meredith Jones on oil-refineries-are-catching-fire-in-war-or-by-accident-how-does-this-worsen-the-energy-crunch
• Benji Jones on bolivia-deforestation-mennonites-climate-change
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windwhales , climate-change-is-destroying-lives-now
• Renske Jongen et al on warming-seas-can-threaten-the-hidden-relationship-that-supports-seagrass-meadows
• ocean acidification on acidification-in-coastal-waters-of-adelie-land-antarctica-1985-2025 , coupled-ocean-warming-and-acidification-reduce-shell-integrity-and-bioenergetics-in-juvenile-mytilus-coruscus
• Wesley Morgan on much-needed-fresh-air-5-outcomes-from-the-worlds-first-summit-on-ending-fossil-fuels
• Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez on urban-trees-cool-the-worlds-cities-more-than-we-thought-but-we-cant-rely-on-them-alone

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-advice-do-you-have-for-this-student-whos-in-his-first-year-of-college-and-interested-in-both-statistics-and-political-science 
  
• John Carlin says
• an-economist-writes-the-fulminations-over-the-1-pick-seem-overheated-to-me
  
• for-once-some-scientific-fraudsters-have-to-pay-their-money-back-to-the-government
  
• expanding-the-stan-users-guide
  
• government policy
• handbook-of-markov-chain-monte-carlo-second-edition
  
• overall-i-remain-a-fan-of-oliver-sacks
  
• david-hogg-on-why-we-do-astrophysics-in-the-face-of-llms-and-the-lack-of-clinical-value
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on the-climate-chart-that-sparks-a-count-v-ratio-debate ,  mta-is-waking-up

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• stoat on book-review-handmaids-wail
• Tyler Cowen on ryan-avents-new-book-in-good-faith
• Joel Eissenberg on money-beyond-borders-a-book-review
• Johanna Harris on how-to-read-the-classics-in-an-age-of-distraction-and-3-short-books-to-get-you-going

Vox Wonk

• macroeconomic-consequences-undermining-central-bank-independence-evidence-governor 
  
• connecting-job-seekers-buddies-online
  
• quantifying-impact-iran-war-us-inflation 
  
• how-countercyclical-capital-buffers-travel-internal-capital-markets-and-domestic
  
• use-and-misuse-rd-subsidies-and-tax-credits
  
• understanding-rise-ceo-age
  
• when-ai-meets-local-debt 
  
• way-out-strait-hormuz
  
• why-de-risking-may-not-deliver-large-peace-dividend
  

ISIS Brides.

 The last of the ISIS brides are coming home. I see a number of people who want to deny them passage back here even though they are Australiaan citizens. Just remember a number will be charged with crimes if only  for being in an area Aaustraalians cannot be.

On the whole subjest I agree with Ben Saul.

Just remember these are the last of the group. They started coming back when the LNP was in government. We have not had a whiff of anyone in the 'group' doing anything illegal let alone engaging in terrorist activity.

Just a thought but what do you think would occur in  their behaviour towards the group if you showed kindness. Part of this will be people accepting they made wrong decisions and therefore have to pay the consequences/punishment. 

Mothers  usually care more about bringing up their kids than ensuring their children become orphans for a cause. If the women believed that then it would have already occurred!!

I forgot to add most if not all of the brides went there as teenagers and males in ISIS are known as highly misogynous.

The RBA had no choice

 well the RBA raised rates.

see:

• Nicki Hutley
• Stella Huangfa

and heavily related that great star Mark the Graph

I want to go back into time and do a mea culpa.

I was one of those who thought the RBA was too slow in cutting rates. Everything around us at the time was showing inflation was dropping quickly and wages was NEVER a problem.

That proved wrong. It was wrong becaause the speed limit of the economy was now a lot lower than we previously thought. CBA economic research was first onto this ( after being like me hawkish on rate cutting.) Mark the Graph was also on the job writing brilliantly on this topic.

This also had consquences for fiscal policy. I was sympathetic towards the government. If the RBA is raising rates the budget should be at worst balalnced as Ken Henry has noted. A Government tightening fiscal plicy as the RBA is tightening monetary policy means avoiding a recession becomes quite hard.

However now wee all onow fidcal plocy has to be contractionary. The structural deficit is around $20b and this has to be cut.

I see nothing wrong with the government informing the RBA how much it will cut it. Neither wants to see a recession however the RBA does not want to see any supply side effect turn nito rising inflation!