Around the Traps 23/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robert Whait and connie Vitalie on the-government-wants-trusts-to-pay-a-minimum-30-tax-whats-behind-the-changes
• Mathew Bowes and Erin-Lea Brown on if-we-want-a-better-australia-we-need-to-raise-the-gst-and-cut-income-taxes
• Mathew Wesley on what-australia-could-learn-from-its-southeast-asian-neighbours-about-power-and-the-changing-global-order
• Jenny Bloomfield on a-smaller-australia-won-t-be-a-stronger-one
• Kristina Murphy on anti-government-violence-is-growing-the-response-needs-to-be-more-than-just-increased-policing
• Joshua Black and Frank Bongiorno on australian-democracy-is-usually-peaceful-but-theres-a-homegrown-history-with-political-violence-that-bears-on-the-future
• Sam Roggeveen on cutting-migration-risks-australia-s-middle-power-clout
• Shane Wright on food-inflation-is-a-bigger-issue-than-oil-and-the-reserve-bank-knows-it
• Mark the Graph on three-failures-behind-rbas-narrow-path
• Andrew Cullen on shares-in-this-data-centre-company-are-down-40-as-investors-lose-faith-in-the-ai-story
• Nicki Hutley on three-things-the-albanese-government-could-do-right-now-to-make-people-feel-better-off

OZ Climate

• south-australia-unveils-13-gigawatts-of-new-wind-and-solar-projects-to-propel-it-way-beyond-100-pct-net-renewables
  
• wandering-towards-dystopia-csiro-scientists-want-open-discussion-of-climate-impacts-before-its-too-late
  
• two-distressed-and-heavily-curtailed-solar-farms-sold-for-a-song-will-the-battery-bust-be-next
  
• tiny-solar-project-stuck-between-a-dam-and-snowy-2-0-as-angry-and-weary-locals-say-no-more
  
• rooftop-pv-wind-solar-and-batteries-bring-down-prices-despite-record-demand-over-winter
  
• very-disappointing-snowy-confirms-pumped-hydro-costs-double-again-to-a-possible-25bn-hit-with-more-delays
  
• batteries-start-to-drive-up-midday-prices-outstripping-the-fall-in-evening-peaks
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on the-term-spread-and-the-case-of-the-missing-2024-recession
• noahpinion on why-are-we-ruled-by-barbarians 
• Kruggers on ai-rising-inequality-and-rising-oligarchy, donald-trump-is-politically-bankrupt-be-very-afraid, the-traitor-in-chief, trump-is-destroying-americans-healthcare, its-time-to-take-starlink-away-from-elon-musk
• Nick Miroff and Nancy Youseff on army-wife-ice-deportation-texas
• Tom Nicholls on america-is-now-an-ally-of-russia
• Alex Tabarrok on no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments
• Brad De Long on spending-on-tokens-chart-of-the-day, crosspost-robert-rubin-in-six-decades-in-public-life-I'd-never-thought-I-I'd-have-to-write-this
• Phillips O'Brien on time-for-a-reality-check Thanks Kruggers 
• David Graham onwhat-trump-france-protest-comments-reveal
• Brian O'Neill on foreign-threats-us-elections-maturing 
• Harry Litman on thats-not-a-thing
• Jared Wesley on albertans-soundly-vote-to-stay-in-canada-many-are-asking-why-they-had-to-vote-in-the-first-place
• David Kaye on trump-accountability-legal-acts-impeachment-guide
• David Frum on trump-budget-deficit-debt
• home and away on shameful
• David Lurie on trump-putin-deal-ukraine

Europe

• Felix Martin on why-europe-could-be-real-winner-ai-boom Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on is-europe-losing-the-future
• Anthony King on is-the-us-limiting-starlink-in-ukraine-the-consequences-could-be-catastrophic
• Marina Yusupova-Ryder on how-the-geopolitical-stigma-associated-with-putins-russia-is-affecting-ordinary-russians
• Tracey German on sodcit-after-battlefield-setbacks-russia-returns-to-destroying-ukraines-morale
• Peter McPhee on as-french-protests-escalate-into-riots-they-may-prove-a-gift-for-marine-le-pens-right-wing-party
• Chris Dillow on on-legacy-ideas
• Tyler Cowen on how-long-do-wealth-shocks-persist-less-than-three-generations-in-england-1700-2026
• noahpinion on france-and-the-limits-of-liberalism

Asia

• Isel Van Zyl on the-houthi-threat-that-saudi-arabia-couldn-t-end
• Ayesha Jehangir on naza-harrowing-documentary-shows-how-killing-in-gaza-became-just-another-days-work
• Isaac Chotiner on behind-the-settler-attack-on-palestinians-and-a-washington-post-journalist
• Vania Widodo on southeast-asia-who-gets-to-call-haze-a-disaster
• Ved Shinde on china-s-invitation-to-us-students-could-be-a-way-to-rewrite-relations 
• Nicholas Niarchos on yemen-the-endless-siege-the-yemen-model-stark
• Tamir Sorek on palestinian-citizens-face-a-painful-choice-in-israels-election-to-vote-or-not

Wonk

• institutional economics on bonds-redux-always-be-shorting-the-economist
• Paul Graham on two kinds of moderate Thanks Nick
• fake nous on you-dont-agree-with-karl-popper Thanks Nick
• corey robins on eichmann-in-the-ivy-league Thanks Nick
• alexander thompson on exam-of-the-month-all-souls-prize Thanks Nick
• Adrian Pabst on the-varieties-of-postliberalism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on ai-can-forecast-the-future-should-we-let-it
• Olga Boichek on ukraines-drone-strikes-on-russian-data-centres-may-change-how-we-see-disinformation
• noahpinion on can-a-million-ai-agents-create-superintelligence 
• Menzie Chinn on insurance-for-ai-hyperscaler-debt-et-al
• Tyler Cowen on the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade
• mainly macro on the-decline-of-knowledge-based-policy-and-the-economics-nobel 
• the conversable economist on a-supply-shock-era

General

• Rachel King on hordes-of-yabbies-are-trashing-rivers-in-africa-how-did-this-happen
• James Roberts on guide-to-the-classics-bemused-by-the-contemporary-world-the-red-and-the-black-might-be-just-the-friend-you-need

Climate

• open mind on how-fast-is-earth-warming, sea-surface-temperature-the-most-obvious-acceleration
• skeptical science on strongest-el-nino-in-a-1000-years?, new_research
• mohyu on september-global-surface-templs-down-from-august

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• why-do-we-like-wind-chimes
  
• I write to seek your help
• death-and-taxes-taking-causal-inference-into-the-real-world
  
• the-paper-creates-the-impression-that-a-certain-intervention-is-effective-while-in-fact-the-evidence-suggests-otherwise
  
• in-the-belly-of-the-whale-portraits-from-a-fractured-israel 
  
• survey-statistics-textbooks-adding-non-probability-sampling-chapters
  
• legit-political-reporters-use-data-journalism-techniques-to-catch-fake-pollsters-at-wedgewood-polls
  
• from-2022-my-exchange-with-yann-lecun-about-killer-robots
  
• how-to-get-the-most-out-of-bayesian-data-analysis
  
• Kaiser Fung on theyre-coming-for-your-subway-stop, replicating-science

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on this-beautiful-country, what-ive-been-reading
• Andrew Gelman on in-the-belly-of-the-whale-portraits-from-a-fractured-israel 
• 
  

Vox Wonk

• mortality-costs-of-climate-change 
  
• never-let-good-crisis-go-waste-term-limits-and-banking-reforms 
  
• fiscal-consolidation-temporary-costs-versus-lasting-scars 
  
• letting-ai-agents-write-econometric-code 
  
• forward-guidance-and-limits-of-public-information 
  
• here-there-and-everywhere-remote-work-and-employment-disabled-and-older-workers-uk
  
• taming-original-sin-redux-role-benchmark-driven-flows 
  
• what-happens-innovation-after-big-tech-buys-startup 
  
• kyiv-love-and-savings-defence-win-win-europe-and-ukraine 
  
• mind-gap-bringing-eu-debt-stability-and-growth-pact 
  
• establishment-level-evidence-californias-fast-food-minimum-wage
  

Let us get it right on Haines attacker

 I see here and overseas people on the far right are alleging the criminal who has thus far caused Haines to lose two legs is a far left terrorist.

Huh.

Firstly if he was say active about being pro-palestine and the environment why in the hell would he run over Haines, It would make more sense to run over Hanson given her views not Haines. ( Yes I know it makes no sense but you know what I mean.)

Secondly if he was a terrorist he would be doing it for ideological reasons and thus Haines would have strong views diametrically opposed to what he believes and that simply is  not true.

Lastly his parents are friends of Haines. On the surface it makes no sense.

Now we find out he is suffering.

The evidence thus far suggests is is personal and irrational.

It reminds me of similar people rushing to the conclusion that the Bondi massacre was due to palestinian  protests when one link to ISIS would show you ISIS hates palestine!

Hillary Clinton was right

 In one of the debates of the 20126 election where she bested Trump she asserted Trump would be Putin's puppet and lead the USA out of NATO.

She was right and the USA is much poorer for this.

I will outsource the remainder to Kruggers. Read the Phillips O'Brien link as well.

It does show how stupid some MAGA followers are when they believe Putin that the increase in the number of NATO nations was one of the reasons for the war. NATO is like most military treaties is a defensive treaty. IF one of the NATO counties invaded another country like Russia then none of the fellow members would come to their side.

It also shows they do not follow Putin's speeches as he has constantly said Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia.

The world is a cesspit

 I am depressed.

Helen Haines

Everybody loves Helen Haines. In a sense it is understandable. She is an independent and thus unlikely to be in government and so can enunciate her views without fear or favour. Now someone has tried to kill her. It is appalling.

French riots

It seems no-one is sure who is behind the riots in France.  Mike Johnson and Emmanuel Macron blame far lefits. flags of the  hammer and sickle would seem to indicate that might have a kernel of truth. However our own public intellectual (sarc) Barnaby Joyce blames immigration and islamists. He  produced no evidence as usual to back up his claim. most of the protesters looks white to me and the journos covering it. A coalition of islamists and commies is so far fetched  that it even defies the pub test. Barnaby it is people like you not 'THEM' that are to blame.

Whoopsy I should have added riots in france over politics has been going on since at least 1968. Obviously some people have not known this.

The USA becomes an ally of Russia.

Tom Nicholls is correct in his synopsis.People have long speculated on why Trump sides with Putin. Remember trump is very stupid but thinks he is bright. That is manna from heaven to a former KGB agent.

Now something to cheer up with. Alex Tabarrok says no to AI crowding out. only problem is whether we are in a speculative AI 'boom'. For example it is absurd to argue the tulip boom did not crowd out investment. Investors were wrong in their investment decisions then. They might be now.

Go Noah

 Noah Smith of noahpinion ( get it) has a great column.

Here it is.

why-are-we-ruled-by-barbarians

Around the Traps 16/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jane Goodall on examined-lives Thanks Nick
• Marta Khomyn on after-firmus-shelved-the-biggest-asx-listing-in-30-years-what-does-it-say-to-investors-about-ai-hype
• burnout economics on australian-headline-growth-masks-failing-economy
• Antony Green on the-pattern-of-one-nation-support-in-nsw
• Susan Thorp on a-record-82-of-australian-home-loans-now-rely-on-mortgage-brokers-why
• Patrick Commins on australia-has-never-driven-migration-into-reverse-by-design-would-slamming-the-brakes-on-be-calamitous
• Ross Gittins on i-m-sick-of-immigration-being-blamed-for-problems-it-doesn-t-cause
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-urgent-choices-albanese-australia
• Peter McDonald on australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
• Nader Naderpajouh et al on australia-urgently-needs-a-national-bushfire-database-heres-what-it-could-look-like
• David Sanderson et al on 3-things-we-need-to-get-right-ahead-of-extreme-bushfire-risk-this-summer
• the tally room on new demosAU MRP how a small swing costs a lot of seats
• Kimberlee Weatherall et al on australias-digital-duty-of-care-was-just-introduced-to-parliament-so-whats-in-the-bill
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-in-australia-hits-a-five-year-high-of-4-7-making-a-rates-hike-less-likely

OZ Climate

• australias-most-powerful-battery-free-to-trade-on-market-in-major-change-to-shock-absorber-contract
  
• look-no-turbines-natural-landscape-returns-at-site-of-decommissioned-wind-farm
  
• we-dont-use-horoscopes-to-shape-national-energy-plans-so-why-put-so-much-faith-in-complex-modelling
  
• the-queensland-lnp-plan-for-coal-powered-data-centres-could-cost-taxpayers-20-billion-a-pop
  
• no-economic-case-global-experts-say-nuclear-has-role-in-some-countries-but-makes-no-sense-in-australia
  
• when-renewable-abundance-becomes-the-story-what-a-record-breaking-weekend-reveals-about-the-grid 
  
• doesnt-make-sense-australias-biggest-power-generator-not-interested-in-new-coal-fired-power-plants
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  
• how-do-we-power-the-data-centre-boom-while-also-quitting-coal-there-are-three-options
  
• large-scale-renewables-projects-reached-record-levels-of-investment-sign-offs-in-the-september-quarter-bowen-says
  
• wind-developer-signs-community-benefit-deals-worth-up-to-160m-to-end-stalemate-over-called-in-projects
• consumers-need-renewables-but-the-gentailers-are-going-for-gas-and-the-esem-cavalry-is-still-over-the-horizon
  
• Graham Readfearn on australia-solar-panels-uptake-record-through-roof, is-it-really-madness-to-account-for-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-burned-overseas-the-coalition-sure-thinks-so
• Hayley Pring  on the-high-court-looked-at-coal-climate-emissions-overseas-but-what-about-emissions-at-home

Northern America

• Richard Hanania on the-feminization-discourse-as-partisan-hackery Thanks Nick
• Chapin Lenthall-Cleary on men-are-more-tolerant-of-the-other-side-than-women-are-of-their-own Thanks Nick
• noahpinion  on maybe-the-rapture-is-already-here, why-donald-trump-won-in-2024, ai-vs-the-railroads
• platypus economics on america-doesnt-have-a-shortage-of-red-dye Thanks Tyler
• Kruggers on will-ai-crowd-out-jobs, arithmetic-suffers-from-trump-derangement-syndrome, elon-musk-shows-us-why-oligarchy-is-a-danger, nerobefehl-nation, on-inflation-trump-snatched-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory, the-bad-news-on-inflation-just-keeps-on-rising
• Zaid Jilani on texas-bo-french-indian-far-right-hate
• Adam Serwer on texas-university-censorship-free-speech
• Brad De Long on crosspost-claudia-sahm-hand-the-pen-to-the-committee, an-inflation-report-that-is-disappointingly-high, crosspost-seva-gunitsky-trumps-near-abroad, the-first-time-a-fed-easing-move-has-triggered-a-large-move in -long-term-bond-yields
• William McRaven on public-execution-nidal-hasan 
• Menzie Chinn on steve-kamin-tales-from-the-dollar-yield-curve-nexus
• Fred Kaplan on trump-putin-diesel-deal-ukraine-republicans-midterms
• David Graham on trump-doj-ilhan-omar-search
• Jonathan Chait on trump-russia-putin-oil
• Harry Litman on bring-me-the-head-of-cassidy-hutchinson 
• Michael Schmitt and Ryan Goodman on fueling-russias-war-diesel-deal-international-law 
• Liz Dye on ilhan-omar-raid-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on democrats-trump-response-project-2029
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-israel-first-mike-huckabee-david-milstein
• Cameron Peters on katie-zacharia-press-secretary-fired
• Sussan Glasser on trumps-october-surprise-is-a-pivot-to-putin

Europe

• Lauren Collins on whats-driving-the-french-student-protests
• open mind on 250-years-of-cet-central-england-temperature
• mainly macro on interest-rates-and-budget-deficits
• Chris Dillow on the-wrong-way
• Julian Novitz on sally-rooneys-books-are-being-withdrawn-from-sale-in-the-uk-due-to-her-support-for-palestine-action
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-russia-trump-putin-war

Asia

• Safiulla Taye et al on the-war-on-terror-failed-afghanistan-but-the-peoples-hopes-for-democracy-live-on
• Hunter Marston on what-to-make-of-china-s-new-air-facility-in-laos 
• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-s-overseas-workers-fund-the-regime-and-may-undermine-it-too
• Amin Saikal on yemen-is-spiralling-into-another-civil-war-that-could-swiftly-engulf-in-the-entire-region
• Kripa Anand on india-s-blue-economy-growth-is-outpacing-its-safeguards 
• Lynne O'Donnell on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Isaac Chotiner on is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-indian-democracy
• Tyler Cowen on china-fact-of-the-day
• Benedict Moleta on israel-soon-heads-to-the-polls-while-palestinian-democracy-remains-on-hold-hamas-looms-over-both
• Shadi Saif on could-the-taliban-s-new-road-to-china-drive-negotiating-power
• Mehdi Hasan on naza-israel-film 
• William Christou on israeli-settlers-attack-olive-farmers-west-bank-washington-post-journalist-heidi-levine

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-contrarian-buy-signal-on-bonds
• Michael Lind on carl-schmitts-war-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-are-global-bond-yields-rising
• Tim Harford on is-the-modern-economy-a-bit-samey
• Michelle Burgis-Kasthala on trump-misses-out-on-nobel-prize-again-and-imposes-new-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court-what-does-it-mean
• Joshua Gans on the-acemoglu-gans-exchange-on-ai Thanks Tyler 
• the conversable economics on 1974-when-both-nobel-economists-proposed-abolishing-the-prize , how-to-keep-global-agricultural-output-rising
• Alex Tabarrok on the-nobel-prize-goes-to-robert-hall-and-michael-woodford
• Brad De Long on a-second-rate-philosopher-i-cannot-read-in-his -original-greek , crosspost-larry-macdonald-how-karl-marx-achieved-financial-independence
• Ruiping Lui and Sagarika Mishra on whos-paying-whom-the-circular-money-machine-behind-the-ai-boom-or-bubble
• noahpinion on a-nobel-for-new-keynesian-macro-at-last
• home and away on ignoble
• Jeet Heer on ai-warfare-threat

General

• Jillian Hess on how-john-steinbeck-actually-wrote-east-of-eden Thanks Nick

Climate

• Fiona Harvey on ipcc-pressure-delay-publication-climate-report-ar7-cop33
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windprice , new_research
• Nick Evershed on just-what-damage-can-the-emissions-from-a-new-fossil-fuel-facility-cause-a-new-tool-has-estimates
• ocean acidification on ocean-warming-could-cut-omega-3-levels-in-seafood-study-finds

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• thinking-more-seriously-about-the-design-of-exploratory-studies-a-manifesto
  
• digital-twins-version-2-0-the-skeptics-speak-up
  
• the-problem-is-noise-not-n-why-increasing-the-sample-size-isnt-all-that
  
• columbia-university-president-says-we-believe-in-difficult-conversations-at-columbia-in-a-broad-embrace-of-freedom-of-expression-its-in-our-dna
  
• jama-rules-of-engagement
  
•  the-head-and-the-heart 
• survey-statistics-favorite-textbooks
  
• ok-heres-a-new-scam-but-i-cant-figure-out-how-its-supposed-to-work
  
• why-do-almost-all-the-cell-phone-numbers-have-no-0s-or-1s
  
• frustration-when-authors-dodge-criticism
  
• how-surprising-is-it-that-lebron-averaged-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists-in-his-career-but-never-had-one-game-where-he-had-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists
  
• seeking-to-interview-social-scientists-experimenting-with-llm-simulations-of-opinions-or-behavior
  
• freakometrics on can you be too old to insure
• Kaiser Fung on directionally-correct-bars

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Isaac Chotiner on anti-zionism-benjamin-moser-book-review Thanks Nick
• John Hawkins on this-economist-believes-the-system-is-broken-maybe-she-has-a-point
• stoat on book-review-sciences-and-philosophy 
• Tyler Cowen on lost-worlds , plunder-the-last-of-the-war-in-europe-1945
• David Frum on david-frum-show-illia-ponomarenko-ukraine-trump

Vox Wonk

• your-debt-my-inflation-role-trust-ecb 
  
• ideas-and-firm-dynamics-when-it-takes-two-tango 
  
• fiscal-populism-and-monetary-policy-rules 
  
• size-and-speed-tariff-pass-through-consumer-prices 
  
• financial-sanctions-and-global-payments-network 
  
• ratings-debt-and-deficits-exploration 
  
• risk-or-responsive-rethinking-unemployment-policy 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• connecting-payment-systems-linking-economies 
  
• tokenised-finance-towards-better-markets 
  
• small-beautiful-2050-europes-digital-economy-mesh-not-hub 
  
• accounting-cross-country-income-differences-two-decades-progress
  

Some must reads

 Busy today so some great articles to read.

• australia-has-problem-or-two , why-are-global-bond-yields-rising 
  
• australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  

enjoy