Around the Traps 22/5/26

 It is time again  for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Daniel Reeders on the-ndiss-original-sin Thanks Nick 
• Jonathan O'Brien on budget-2026 Thanks Nick
• Saul Eslake on why-labor-is-right-about-tax-and-housing Thanks Nick , death-tax-startups-and-a-rent-spike-its-time-to-correct-misleading-claims-about-labors-budget
• Mark the Graph on the-federal-budget-in-pictures , housing-shortages-and-the-elasticity-of.housing-demand, why-is-aussie-dollar-so-strong
• Mark the Ballot on the-slow-death-of-2pp , polling-update
• David Lee on australia-has-had-game-changer-budgets-before-how-does-chalmers-stack-up 
• Jason Nassios and Beth Webster on the-tax-changes-in-the-budget-only-scratch-the-surface-here-are-4-reforms-australia-needs-next 
• Tamara Wilkinson on are-this-budgets-tax-changes-really-an-assault-on-aspiration 
• Greg Jericho on labor-budget-changes-death-taxes-scare-campaigns-truth
• John Hopkins on 15-australian-companies-switched-to-a-four-day-work-week-it-went-surprisingly-well 
• Kevin Bonham on pre-and-post-budget-federal-poll-roundup 
• Josh Butler and Patrick Commins on australia-budget-labor-trust-changes-is-it-a-death-tax-explained

OZ Climate

• remarkable-milestone-bowen-says-home-battery-installations-continue-to-surge-pass-400000 
  
• australias-biggest-solar-farm-enjoys-less-curtailment-but-lower-prices-as-big-battery-starts-commissioning 
  
• state-green-lights-plan-for-australias-biggest-wind-farm-with-219-turbines-and-two-big-batteries 
  
• v2g-explainer-safety-and-the-current-state-of-turning-electric-cars-into-batteries-on-wheels 
  
• nsw-launches-its-biggest-ever-renewable-tender-to-kehttps://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-launches-its-biggest-ever-renewable-tender-to-keep-lights-on-and-push-down-prices/ep-lights-on-and-push-down-prices 
  
• its-not-rocket-science-were-obsessed-with-data-centres-but-the-easy-solution-is-the-way-we-heat-buildings 
  
• cannon-brookes-bankrolls-one-biggest-batteries-in-the-world-in-huge-bet-on-thermal-storage 
  
• some-of-australias-dirtiest-coal-mines-are-about-to-change-hands-heres-why-we-should-be-worried 
  
• when-the-grid-and-home-batteries-teach-consumers-to-withdraw-from-the-market
  
• Graham Readfearn on can-electric-trucks-win-over-australias-fossil-fuel-die-hards-or-is-diesel-here-for-the-long-haul 
• Petra Stock on fracking-south-australia-limestone-coast-peter-malinauskas-labor-broken-promise
• Juan Afsano and Heather Handley on geothermal-2-0-how-superhot-rocks-underground-could-help-power-australia
• Graeme Readfearn on one-nation-pauline-hanson-australia-questions-climate-science

Northern America

• Kruggers on g-elliott-morris-on-vibes-and-the-midterms, the-looting-of-america, from-dropping-bombs-to-dropping-bonds
• Jeremiah Johnson on hasan-piker-china-cuba-authoritarian-leftist-socialism Thanks Nick 
• Fred Kaplan on trump-china-xi-jinping-summit-taiwan-what-happened, trump-iran-war-nuclear-reason-why
• Will Lockett on starship-is-going-nowhere thanks Brad
• Bill Haskell on five-charts-numerics-and-some-explanation-on-home-ownership-in-the-united-states
• Jonathan Lemire on aging-president-trump-health
• Alexandra Andhov and Ian Murray on elon-musk-sued-openai-and-lost-but-the-core-question-of-the-case-remains-unanswered 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-voting-rights-act-mostly-dead
• Jonathan Chait on trump-anti-weaponization-fund-january-6 
• newdeal democrat on the-bond-market-is-sending-a-message 
• Tyler Cowen on wokeness-has-peaked-what-followed-is-worse
• the conversable economist on a-foretaste-of-warsh-as-chair-of-the-federal-reserve
• Liz Dye on trump-weaponization-fund
• Jeet Heer on thomas-massie-primary-loss-trump-aipac, trump-economy-iran
• Mary McCord on domestic-terrorism-nspm-7-counterterrorism-strategy
• silver bulletin on disney-erased-fivethirtyeight thanks Brad

Europe

• Mark Beeson on starmers-troubles-may-be-self-inflicted-but-voters-everywhere-are-fed-up-with-leaders-lacking-courage 
• noahpinion on yes-europeans-are-poorer-than-americans
• Kruggers on europe-versus-america-a-wonkish-data-followup, challenging-the-narrative-of-european-decline-free-report
• Gorana Grgic on nato-would-survive-a-us-withdrawal-but-what-kind-of-alliance-would-it-become 
• Mainly Macro on why-labours-current-disarray-is-the-result-of-osbornes-austerity 
• Fiona Harvey on uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns
• Alex Nurse on andy-burnham-what-has-made-the-king-of-the-north-so-popular
• Brad De Long on crosspost-mark-koyama-nick-crafts

Asia

• Clive Schofield on thailand-and-cambodia-are-bickering-over-their-borders-again-can-diplomacy-prevent-a-return-to-war 
• Bernard Avishai on benjamin-netanyahus-war-at-home 
• the conversable economist on is-china-blocking-developing-economies
• Mohd Yunis on haze-over-southeast-asia-clouds-more-sky
• Adi Imsirovic on is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-the-oil-world 
• Jing Ge on japan-s-quiet-test-china-diplomacy 
• Isaac Chotiner on the-gaza-peace-plan-has-gone-nowhere
• Rushali Saha on assassination-plot-clouds-india-s-intelligence-ambitions

Wonk

• institutional economics on one-way-or-another 
• Steve Waldman on the-fiduciary-class Thanks Nick
• paroxysms on struggling-with-shakespeare Thanks Nick
• Robert Gilles on economic-mythology-part-1-what-money-is-not Thanks Nick
• Wesley Widmaier on after-an-opaque-summit-china-and-the-us-want-to-work-together-again-that-might-not-be-good-news-for-the-world 
• Tim Harford on betting-on-risk-changes-the-world 
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update
• Timothy Graham et al on the-market-moves-before-trump-posts
• Thomas Jeffries on what-you-need-to-know-about-the-ebola-outbreak-that-has-the-who-concerned
• noahpinion on all-non-drone-militaries-are-obsolete , roundup-82-staring-in-wonder-at-the-world
• the conversable economist on how-is-ai-affecting-the-quantity-and-quality-of-new-books 
• Michael Brennan on where-have-all-the-fiscal-hawks-gone-we-need-to-find-some-and-quickly 
• Raina MacIntyre on health-authorities-are-racing-to-contain-ebola-in-the-drc-and-uganda-heres-whats-making-it-so-challenging 
• Mark Pierce on exit-pursued-voters
• Calvin Ackley et al on productivity in the healthcare industry Thanks Tyler
• home and away on once-upon-a-time-in-china
• Alex Tabarrok on the-ais-are-one-of-us-now

General

• David Pritchard on what-is-the-thucydides-trap-xi-warned-trump-about-lessons-from-an-ancient-war-between-athens-and-sparta 
• Oscar Vorobjovas-Pinta on how-public-voting-has-turned-eurovision-from-a-song-contest-into-a-political-platform
• noahpinion on dating-advice-for-men
• Jorgo Ristevski et al on 129-000-years-of-crocodiles-what-we-know-about-australasias-ancient-apex-predators
• Chris Kirkland and Anthony Clarke on rare-567-million-year-old-fossils-refine-our-understanding-of-early-animal-evolution

Climate

• Joshua Hill on coal-pollution-is-significantly-reducing-the-output-of-solar-panels-leading-study-finds 
• ocean acidification on large-scale-atmospheric-circulation-and-its-impact-on-the-baltic-sea-region-controls-predictability-and-consequences 
• renew economy on from-hockey-sticks-to-ev-fires-the-circular-economy-of-climate-disinformation
• skeptical science on five-things-el-nino-comeback

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-are-there-squares-everywhere-in-statistics-normal-variance 
  
• if-books-could-kill-podcast
  
• whats-the-definition-of-a-professional-career-2 
  
• mrplew-locally-equivalent-weights-for-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification 
  
• 19/j 
  
• survey-statistics-greg 
  
• what-do-i-think-about-that-proposed-arxiv-policy-to-ban-authors-of-papers-with-ai-slop 
  
• the-quick-fix-why-fad-psychology-cant-cure-our-social-ills
  
• junk charts on updating-the-unemployment-chart

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• mapping-household-level-transmission-monetary-policy 
  
• foreign-currency-funding-risk-and-global-financial-stability 
  
• immigrant-integration-europe-progress-without-full-convergence 
  
• macroeconomics-tariffs-global-production-and-finance-networks 
  
• devil-tail-how-firms-beliefs-about-rare-macroeconomic-disasters-shape-investment 
  
• skipping-factory-service-led-growth-sub-saharan-africa 
  
• measuring-capital-account-openness-why-intensity-matters 
  
• when-energy-shocks-bite-harder-non-linear-inflation-dynamics
  
• smarter-approach-electricity-rationing
  

Defining anti-semitism

 It isn't hard to define anti-semitism however too many people want to have a definition which makes criticism of israel anti-semitic.

Jillian Segal came up with exactly that. This was not unexpected given she is a member of the jewish lobby ( they support the government of israel.) The government unfortunately gave in and supported this definition. Timid politicians do not like nuance! Both the ABC and SBS have rightly rejected the defiction. the Royal Commision has not.

what I find curious is that they adopt a controversial definition then sorta have a debate about the topic.

One of the problems of the definition is it aligns all jews anywhere with the government of Israel. Hence some people will criticize jews for supporting Israel committing genocide and war crimes against palestinians in Gaza when a lot do not. It also exacerbates the trope that jews serve two masters and Israel is the major one!

The rise in anti-semitism world wide is related to this. Iran's hand cannot be ruled out either as we know so well here.

It is not fair to ask every jew whether they support every action of the Israeli government just like it isn't fair to ask any muslim  whether they support the actions of any islamic terrorist.

If you wrongly define a  problem then you will not come up with a solution.

the trump administration is totally corrupt

 The $1,776b slush fund is not the final straw, it is merely a very good example of a very corrupt system.

The DOJ is now the legal department for Trump not for the country. They have essentially lost the legal presumption of regularity. Basically because they have been caught out lying and playing loose with the truth

When comey was origginally imdicted we eventually found out from the magistrate judge it was done illegally. The illegal attorney told the grand jury things which we not part of the law. We do not know whether this was deliberate or simply ignorance.

It would not be surprising if this has occurred with Comey again and the Southern Law Poverty Centre. If I was a defendant I would be asking for an investigation of the grand jury every time a suspect indictment comes around.

This brings us to Todd Blanche. He used to have a decent reputation as a prosecutor. No longer. He no longer represents trump but he continues in his job as he does. Trump can only do his corrupt work if blanche okays it.  He signed off that the trumps will no longer have a tax audit. This shows he does not understand what a conflict of interest is not what ethics are.

It is up to the voters in the USA to do something about this. If not they deserve everything that occurs after that if not now. did they not expect a convicted criminal to conduct a lawless administration?????

domestic politcs

 A few things have caught my eye.

tobaccy tax

The critics have lined up and are saying the g\overnment must cut the tobacco excise to reduce the blackmarket in this good. hold on Surely black market tobacco will always be cheaper then legal tobacco. That's right no matter how much you cut the escise black market tobacco will always be cheaper.

Notice how this argument completely misses out on the supply side. A lot of stores have opened up selling black market tobacco amongst other things. It reminds somewhat of my youth where videeo stores would sell black market porno videos.

Death taxes

This is quite a stretch. critics are alleging that under a trust a kid or kiddies will be taxed if both parents die BEFORE they 'come of age'. Now to be fair I am all in favour of death duties but this isn't that. This is in the extremely unusual situation of both parents dying the children would not get all the money the parents have left. My understanding this occurs if there is no trust anyway as children can only have limited income until they are taxed.

Negative gearing

Negative gearing where interest payments are higher than the rent received only encourages speculation not investment. An investor would require positive gearing. Read Saul Eslake.

Just to end on a related subject Mark the Graph on showing the budget in pictures

Yikes how could I forget Immigration.

Both the LNP and one nation want immigration slashed. Okay first hit are universities. Well they say Australian tertiary institutions should only be for australians. Okay that means more payments to them for the government because aussie students unlike overseas students are NOT full fee paying students. This is a lot of money. 

Most industries in regional australia are reliant on immigrants and/or people with tourists visas (backpackers for example). The building trade needs immigrants to continue to thrive. Count them out and it becomes harder to build houses. Immigrants also bring in more tax revenue than any take in benefits.

Saul Eslake again on a lot

Wars

 Russia/Ukraine

My how this has changed. Russia is now suffering shortages from soldiers, ammunition, petrol etc. Most former military people like Ben Hodges, Mick Ryan, David Petraeus etc are now saying russia cannot win. Ukraine has clearly learnt from their unsuccessful advances in previous years and their use of drones and drone technology have them being world class. They are killing russians in enormous numbers and are causing russian many troubles with their supplies etc. Crimea is looking  extremely vulnerable! Ukraine is not allowing russia supply crimea with anything much at all.

All this with hardly any support from the USA. The only problem appears to be war talk from Belarus.This could only be a panic move from Putin to move some Ukrainian soldiers from where they are.

Ukraine have clearly learnt from their mistakes and innovate to the nth degree. russia on the other hand carry on no matter what.

USA/Iran

Two great articles:

• Thomas Wright 
• Robert Kagan

Trump like Putin severely underestimated his enemy. As Kagan  points out ( and I have stated before) Trump can only achieve his aims by having boots on the ground. That is highly risky politically. Add in the strait of homuz restricting traffic and the political cost to trump is far higher than those in charge in Iran. The mid-terms are coming. There are no fair dinkum elections in iran and if people protest they get killed.

Iran do not care if they upend the world economy if it harms the USA. Threats to Iran by trump have little effect as they have taken the best the USA can do and are still  going well. The US has wasted ammunition on Iran for nought and now have to plat catch up on producing more just when they are struggling to do so.

Their aim is to attack the US's gulf allies if the US attacks them. This has a two fold aim. firstly it is very bad for the world economy. It also destroys most gulf countries business model. No wonder they are cheesed off at trump!

From Iran's point of view they now know how important the strait of hormuz is to world trade. They understand the importance of asymmetric warfare is from the Russia/Ukraine war. They understand the weaknesses of the Gulf states and finally they now know they must possess a nuke otherwise these attacks will occur infinitum. ( The north korea strategy.)

Aals for the West the USA elected a cognitively challenged person of extremely low intellect who has the concentration of a cocker spaniel. Threats of more bombings are meaningless. What are they going to bomb???

Cuba

Trump is threatening cuba. Indeed some might say by blocking any oil he is committing a war crime as people would have dies and will die from a lack of electricity. This is bad for Cuba obviously and the only thing the embargo MIGHT do is to ignite popular feeling against the government. Whether this can be successful in toppling a government which does not have elections is aanother thing.

Around the Traps 15/5/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Janda on what-if-we-used-taxes-or-superannuation-to-control-inflation Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on finding-r-star-after-great-divergence , a-budget-about-today-dressed-in-the-language-of-tomorrow
• Adrian Beaumont on one-nation-wins-farrer-byelection-as-liberal-vote-crashes
• Donald Rothwell on is-linked-women-are-facing-a-raft-of-criminal-charges-a-legal-expert-explains-the-laws-at-play
• Clarke Jones on whats-next-for-the-isis-families-this-is-how-de-radicalisation-programs-work-in-australia
• Josh Sunman on with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate-farrer-success-in-victoria-and-federally
• Philip Laird on after-dumping-inland-rail-australia-has-no-plan-to-stop-relying-on-diesel-trucks-for-freight
• Frank Bongiorno on budget-2026-australia-labor-albanese-chalmers-howard-era-over
• Stephen Bartos on a-budget-with-a-bundle-of-reforms-in-a-time-of-extreme-uncertainty
• Anthony Scott on specialist-doctors-are-charging-too-much-4-options-to-rein-in-excessive-fees 
• Sarah Cameron et al on one-nations-rise-may-seem-sudden-but-it-follows-long-term-voter-trends 
• Antony Green on farrer-by-election-post-mortem-where-to-now-for-the-coalition
• Greg Jericho on the-budget-in-seven-graphs-no-big-surprises-but-this-may-be-one-of-the-most-ambitious-moves-to-fix-australias-finances
• Josh Butler on labor-dropped-their-long-awaited-gambling-report-on-budget-day-were-they-betting-no-one-would-notice 
• Ross Gittins on it-pains-me-to-say-nice-things-about-politicians-but-this-is-a-good-budget
• John Hawkins on get-ready-for-a-budget-slowdown-but-chalmers-insists-we-wont-see-a-recession
• Aruna Sathanapally and Mathew Bowes on will-this-budget-really-make-housing-fairer-for-more-australians-its-a-good-start
• Andrew Whitehouse on as-the-definition-of-autism-expands-are-we-losing-sight-of-those-with-the-greatest-needs
• Jeannie Paterson on coles-discounts-misled-shoppers-court-rules-it-could-face-hundreds-of-millions-in-fines
• Patrick Commins on angus-taylor-says-migrants-are-a-net-drain-on-australia-the-numbers-say-the-opposite-is-true
• Kos Samaras on angus-taylor-just-alienated-families-like-mine-and-doomed-the-liberal-party

OZ Climate

• they-solve-the-problem-leading-storage-developer-says-battery-costs-have-plunged-70-pct-in-two-years
  
• landholder-led-4-hour-big-battery-gets-federal-environmental-all-clear-in-just-over-four-weeks
  
• from-cars-to-coastal-shipping-we-can-electrify-almost-everything-according-to-electrification-staircase 
  
• australias-data-centre-dilemma-will-they-bring-an-energy-boom-or-bust 
  
• batteries-swamp-gas-big-wind-crunches-coal-in-a-month-of-new-records-on-australias-main-grids 
  
• winter-can-bring-you-new-energy-installing-a-small-power-station-and-interrogate-you-bills 
  
• developer-of-australias-biggest-renewable-projects-says-it-can-offer-super-cheap-deals-for-data-centres 
  
• more-complex-and-deeper-than-i-had-imagined-energy-czar-sees-rise-in-solar-project-complaints 
  
• aemo-should-be-split-in-two-transmission-put-in-public-ownership-in-new-push-for-overhaul-of-failed-nem
  
• revamped-gippsland-wind-project-wins-state-approval-but-still-to-win-over-some-near-neighbours 
  
• big-batteries-took-a-bite-out-of-gas-generators-evening-peak-party-then-they-ate-the-whole-dinner 
• banks-are-no-longer-financing-the-energy-transition-on-faith-and-are-declining-deals-they-once-would-do
  
• giant-tomago-battery-and-vpp-win-first-firming-tender-to-fill-gaps-in-supply
  
• Kimberly Reid on why-has-this-autumn-been-so-hot-and-dry 

Northern America

• institutional economics on from-taco-to-nacho
• Dan Moynihan on power-democracy-and-clarity Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on do-billionaires-earn-their-money , trump-actually-started-to-decouple-america-from-china
• dead for tax reasons on so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-pharmacare
• Kruggers on will-our-hyper-gilded-age-usher-in-genuine-populism ,  is-europe-in-economic-decline , modeling-the-us-europe-paradox-very-wonkish , what-happens-when-americans-realize-how-miserable-we-are , the-apotheosis-of-willful-ignorance , why-did-trump-take-elon-musk-to-china
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-voting-rights-citizens-united , supreme-court-virginia-gerrymander-scott-mcdougle-jay-jones
• Tyler Cowen on why-are-stock-prices-still-so-high
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-alabama-voting-sotomayor-dissent-alito
• David Cole on the-second-redemption-voting-rights-act 
• Sudarsan Roghavan on the-art-of-the-ceasefire
• Zack Beauchamp on liberals-far-right-obama-carney-global-progress-action 
• Christian Paz on trump-religious-right-christian-nationalism-biblical-christian-nation-religion-prayer
• Andrew Prokop on economy-inflation-trump-expectations-price-level 
• Jeet Heer on kash-patel-bourbon-swag

Europe

• Ben Wellings on local-elections-reveal-the-deep-fracturing-of-uk-politics-and-put-the-writing-on-the-wall-for-keir-starmer
• Fred Kaplan on russia-ukraine-victory-day-putin-parade-war
• Stephen Coleman on english-local-elections-2026-a-story-of-a-new-kind-of-politics
• Jon Richardson on russia-doesnt-have-much-to-celebrate-on-victory-day-as-ukraine-brings-the-war-home-to-putin
• Nicholas Dickinson on ousting-keir-starmer-is-harder-than-it-looks-party-rules-mean-he-can-choose-to-keep-fighting
• Eric Shaw on andy-burnhams-big-challenge-the-route-to-succeeding-starmer-is-littered-with-obstacles
• Marcus Colla on sir-keir-starmer-ghosts-europe
• Joshua Yaffa on rumors-of-instability-in-moscow
• Mainly Macro on why-has-westminster-politics-become-so-dumb 
• Charles Lees on who-are-the-main-contenders-to-replace-keir-starmer-as-prime-minister

Asia

• David Aaronovitch on israel-has-finally-lost-the-west Thanks Nick
• Amra Lee on israels-destructive-actions-in-lebanon-are-normalising-war-without-rules
• Tom Harper on china-has-played-a-key-role-in-the-iran-war-and-will-continue-to-do-so
• Anton Ponomarenko on north-korea-s-battlefield-dividend
• Kerry Brown on trump-china-13-out-10-problem
• Shanthie D'Sousa on bollywood-s-bluster-block-gulf
• Schoni Song on south-korea-s-chance-reel-maritime-influence
• Robert Kagan on iran-war-trump-losing 
• Meredith Jones on iran-is-threatening-undersea-cables-the-worlds-digital-chokepoints-have-never-been-more-vulnerable 
• 
  

Wonk

• Doug Bates on the-irony-of-stoic-conceit Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update
• Tim Harford on when-persistence-prevails
• Jeffrey McGee and Richard Rowe on antarctic-diplomacy-s-back-basics-test
• Robert Walker on export-bans-wrong-way-go-back
• David Nellor on economic-forecasts-have-never-been-more-prominent-or-less-reliable 
• Lynne O'Donnell on us-minerals-mafia-report-reveals-battle-china-next-industrial-era 
• noahpinion on tyrants-are-losing-wars
• Tyler Cowen on ideas-behind-their-time- part2 , some-non-obvious-reasons-why-ai-will-create-some-transitional-problems-in-employment
• Abhijnan Rei on odds-racket-prediction-markets
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-global-defense-spending 
• Ian Wright et al on we-proved-these-forever-chemicals-can-last-longer-than-three-decades 
• Chris Dillow on on-transferable-skills

General

• Megan Willis on what-is-the-grey-rock-method-for-dealing-with-narcissists-or-difficult-family-members
• Craig Dalton on ive-investigated-a-hantavirus-outbreak-heres-what-i-can-tell-you-about-the-cruise-ship-cluster
• Rhys Parry on hantavirus-is-very-different-to-covid-heres-why-the-andes-virus-wont-cause-the-next-pandemic
• Janne Torkola on why-are-there-so-many-lizards-in-australia-the-ancient-climate-holds-a-clue
• Julien Cooper et al on we-found-hundreds-of-huge-ancient-mass-graves-hidden-in-the-sahara-desert
• Darius Sporzynski on guide-to-the-classics-all-for-one-and-one-for-all-the-enduring-appeal-of-the-three-musketeers
• Dominik Koll on stardust-trapped-in-antarctic-ice-reveals-tens-of-thousands-of-years-of-solar-systems-past

Climate

• ocean acidification on projected-future-of-african-marine-ecosystems-under-climate-change-and-stratospheric-aerosol-injection
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on urban-trees-cool-the-worlds-cities-more-than-we-thought-but-we-cant-rely-on-them-alone
• Ayurella Horn-Muller on climate-crisis-crops-failing-worker-heat-groceries
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-pick-the-winner-picker-heuristic-preference-for-categorically-correct-forecasts
  
• an-axiomatic-foundation-for-decisions-with-counterfactual-utility
  
• more-thoughts-regarding-comfortable-powerful-people-who-seem-willing-or-even-eager-to-blow-up-the-system
  
• who-wanted-trump-to-run-in-2024
  
• it-kinda-makes-sense-for-you-to-know-about-700-people
  
• the-application-matters-medical-ethics-and-counterfactual-utilities 
  
• survey-statistics-relevant-alternatives
  
• recent-discoveries-on-the-persistence-of-statistical-fallacies
  
• dc-conventional-wisdom-goes-down-to-defeat-in-state-after-state 
  
• as 
  
• alchemize-pymcs-model-to-replace-stan-pymc-etc-with-an-llm 
  
• when-is-it-time-for-a-five-year-plan
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the Atlantic on summer-reading-2026

Vox Wonk

• chris-sims-and-role-money-economic-fluctuations 
  
• identifying-monetary-policy-shocks-newspapers-using-gpt 
  
• how-get-green-and-deal-recalibrating-eu-industrial-policy
  
• chinas-real-estate-reckoning-lessons-japans-lost-decade 
  
• how-uk-firms-are-responding-war-iran-early-evidence-decision-maker-panel 
  
• when-ruler-made-thing-it-measures-multi-model-evidence-ai-occupational-exposure 
  
• different-effects-oil-and-gas-supply-shocks-euro-area-inflation 
  
• impact-emissions-trading-systems-manufacturing-installation-productivity-evidence 
  
• some-chickens-are-coming-home-roost-eu-fiscal-policies-2025
  

the Budget

 Okay here are a few views:

• Stephen Bartos
• John Hawkins
• Ross Gittins
• Greg Jericho
• Nicki Hutley

(If any others come in late I will  link them as well.)

I agree with all three and like ross Gittins am pleasantly surprised by the budget.

A couple of points.

1. It is about time someone di something about CGT and negative gearing ever since howard and costello gave first home buyers the middle finger. The benefits are highly skewed towards very high income earners See
2. A lot of people are missing the productivity improvements. they are somewhat nebulous as the  programs have few figures etc but they are substantive.
3. The structural deficit improves which means there is mild contraction in fiscal policy and overall a deficit of only 1% of GDP is small just ask the yanks.
4. The improvement in fiscal policy relies a lot on NDIS cutbacks. Will the pollies have the backbone for it. however the improvements are more long term rather than short or even medium term

I laughed at Mark Bouris's reaction. Can someone ask him how many negatively eared properties he has please. It is a lot!!!

• Ken Henry