Around the Traps 13/12/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Danielle Clode on friday-essay-living-with-fire-and-facing-our-fears
• Peter Goss and Matt Cowgill on estonia-didnt-deliver-its-pisa-results-on-the-cheap-and-neither-will-australia
• Tim Nelson and Alan Rai on finally-your-electricity-bill-looks-set-to-fall-heres-how-much-you-could-save
• Ross Gittins on sorry-economy-cant-grow-much-without-higher-wages , how-morrison-is-putting-politics-ahead-policy
• The Kouk on the-rba-has-the-tools-to-fix-the-economy-but-is-reluctant-to-use-them
• Croaking Cassandra on deputy-governor-talking-up-the-economy, labour-share-of-income-2, hyefu-thoughts, easy-to-underestimate-how-far-things-may-go
• Ross Gittins on please-no-more-pollyanna-impressions-in-the-budget-update
• Dominic O'Sullivan on can-indigenous-australians-be-deported-as-aliens-a-high-court-decision-will-show-us-the-strength-of-modern-colonial-power
• Lisa Toohey and Markus Wagner on key-trade-rules-will-become-unenforceable-from-midnight-australia-should-be-worried
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-attitudinal-polling
• Greg Jericho on the-coalition-isnt-being-honest-about-the-climate-crisis-but-neither-is-labor
• Shane Cronin on why-white-island-erupted-and-why-there-was-no-warning
• Jeff Seadon on climate-explained-seven-reasons-to-be-wary-of-waste-to-energy-proposals
• Sarah Ann Wheeler on dont-blame-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-its-climate-and-economic-change-driving-farmers-out
• Michael Luek on why-were-tourists-allowed-on-white-island
• Damien Spry on share-comment-attack-social-media-weapon-and-battlefield
• renew economy on coalitions-zero-for-climate-policy-is-well-earned-all-its-done-is-cook-the-books, aemo-maps-out-path-to-90-per-cent-renewables-for-australia-by-2040-2040
• Blanche Verlie on now-australian-cities-are-choking-on-smoke-will-we-finally-talk-about-climate-change
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australias-wafer-thin-surplus-rests-on-a-mine-disaster-in-brazil

Northern America

• the conversable economist on paul-volcker-1927-2019
• calculated risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential=terms, cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-increase-above-2%-in novemberl
• Clare Malone on the-2010s-were-a-complicated-decade-for-democrats-and-white-voters
• Adam Serwer on there-was-never-deep-state-conspiracy-get-trump
• Noah Feldman on trump-constitution-meaning-of-impeachment
• Barkley Rosser on smoking-at-fed
• New Deal Democrat on scenes-from-the-november-jobs-report

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-othering-of-jeremy-corbyn
• stumbling and mumbling on the-failed-marketplace-in-ideas

Asia

• Lydia Khalil on sistani-not-so-hidden-hand-behind-iraqi-politics
• Zeeshan Aleem on hong-kong-protests-democracy
• Cassandra's Legacy on the-effect-of-sanctions-on-iran
• Vani Murali on when-price-hikes-pour-fuel-fire
• Lauren Williams on iran-when-maximum-pressure-collides-indefinite-defiance
• Andrew Seith on aung-san-suu-kyi-why-defend-indefensible
• Sussane Smeidl on afghan-peace-elusive-not-impossible

Wonk

• Croaking Cassandra on what-does-bank-capital-do
• Nick Rowe on increased-price-flexibility-is-destabilising-in-new-keynesian-models-and-a-price-level-path-target-i
• Mauro Barelli on why-aung-san-suu-kyi-is-in-the-hague-defending-myanmar-against-allegations-of-genocide
• Andre Leslie on russia-special-case-when-it-comes-doping

General

• Caitlin Syme on curious-kids-how-do-we-know-if-a-dinosaur-skeleton-is-from-a-child-dinosaur-or-an-adult-dinosaur
• Jacob Bokland on happy-6ft-ancient-penguins-were-as-tall-as-people-weve-discovered-the-species-that-started-the-downsizing-trend
• Xulan Wang on kiss-kissing-why-science

Climate

• David Appell on 2019-global-co2-emissions-down-06
• and Then Theres Physics on different-perspectives
• Open Mind on how-deniers-deny, second-least-cold-year
• Fiona Harvey on greenland-ice-sheet-melting-seven-times-faster-than-in-1990s
• Brian Resnik on permafrost-melting-arctic-report-card-noaa
• the conversable economist on update-on-carbon-capture-and-storage

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-to-think-about-medical-reversals
• field-goal-kicking-putting-in-3d
• deep-origins-and-spatial-correlations
• inferential-statistics-as-descriptive-statistics
• judith-rich-harris-on-the-garden-of-forking-paths
• statscchat on more-misleading-trends

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• weightlessness-redux-2
• Daniel Flitton on favourites-2019-slow-horses-spook-street
• Tim Harford on my-books-of-the-year-2019
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox wonk

• policy-change-needed-accelerate-investment-structural-transformation
• elite-violence-and-elite-numeracy-europe-500-1900-ce-co-evolution
• geography-eu-discontent
• research-humanitarian-social-protection-not-only-possible-desperately-needed
• using-history-understand-hidden-wealth-uk
• financial-integration-and-external-adjustment
• art-assessing-public-debt-sustainability
• comparative-european-institutions-and-little-divergence-1385-1800
• heterogeneous-drivers-heterogeneous-populism
• what-european-carbon-border-tax-might-look
• climate-migration-frightens-climate-poverty-frightening
• effects-export-credit-guarantees-firm-performance
• fiscal-stabilisation-monetary-unions
• idiosyncratic-risks-and-volatility-trade
• online-music-videos-and-recorded-music-sales
• populism-why-rich-countries-and-good-times
• promoting-competition-platform-ecosystems

We should not be using our carry over credits.

Australia will only get under our targets for emissions by using our carry over credits. ( HERE  and HERE as well)

It shouldn't.
The reason is because it 'allows' an increase in emissions to show as a decrease in emissions.
Here in very smoky Sydanee we know only too well the need to reduce emissions by fair dinkum means.

There should be no carry over credits or debits used in examining whether emissions are falling or not. Using carry over credits to disguise a rise in emissions is a disgrace.

An NBN story

Some time ago we had people from the NBN putting in a cable.

When I asked why we needed a cable since we already had one I was told we got the internet via copper wires.
Not so I said I can show you the cable going through our wall.

The person's english wasn't the best  and I was given varied answers.
I thus contacted the NBN and asked the same thing.

I got a Morrison answer that is they avoided the question and simply said we should have the NBN by February.

I further learned telstra users have already gotten the NBN in my street.

I am not happy Jan

Australia's projected carbon emissions

The Department of the Environment and Energy ( I dunno what is is called now) released its projection of Australia's carbon emissions..

New calculations have then falling. The main reason is the renewables will have 50% of energy by 2030.

Now those who remember the election will have a problem. Did not the government say that the ALP target of renewables having 50% of energy would be far too costly? Has the government found a silver bullet?
The answers are yes and no.

The reason is that the cost of renewables has fallen dramatically. They are either below the cost of OLD coal stations or about the same. They are expected to fall further. Ross Garnaut thinks there is a good chance new solar PV will be $30 MWh by 2025!!

This has occurred DESPITE the government bot because of it. Imagine if you will how the market would react if there was a price on carbon!

Adjustments to temperature

Tamino makes a great explanation of what this is all about.
For something so simple it is amazing how a few people either do not understand it or don't wish to.

Around the Traps 6/12/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Christopher Findlay on banning-huawei-could-cut-off-our-nose-to-spite-our-face-good-5g-matters
• Kieren Donelly and Sung-Young Kim ontaking-confucius-institutes-face-value
• Ross Gittins on lowe-should-rescue-pm-lost-in-the-canberra-bubblel
• Croaking Cassandra on spending-and-saving, savings-rate-across-the-oecd, what-a-revealing-travesty, as-we-await-the-governors-final-decision, if-you-assume-policy-is-powerful-you-can-justify-almost-anything, saving-new-zealand-and-australia-compared
• Crystal Legacy on market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public
• Greg Barton on lessons-on-terrorism-and-rehabilitation-from-the-london-bridge-attack
• Yun Jjiang on reconsidering-australia-s-china-debate
• Greg Jericho on when-you-get-right-down-to-the-fundamentals-the-economy-is-looking-pretty-crook, the-story-behind-the-gdp-data-the-incredible-shrinking-private-sector
• Mark McGovern on limiting-cash-payments-to-10-000-is-more-dangerous-than-you-might-think
• Bruce Arnold on the-government-is-hyping-digitalised-services-but-not-addressing-a-history-of-e-government-fails
• Stephen Duckett on how-do-you-stop-the-youth-exodus-from-private-health-insurance-cut-premiums-for-under-55s
• Paul Monk on wang-liqiang-case-cold-war-perspective
• Renew Economy on huge-influx-of-solar-will-reduce-risk-of-power-outages-this-summer-says-aemo, networks-offer-super-cheap-pricing-to-soak-up-australias-solar-sponge
• Julie Sonneman on the-top-ranking-education-systems-in-the-world-arent-there-by-accident-heres-how-australia-can-climb-up
• Sue Thonpson on aussie-students-are-a-year-behind-students-10-years-ago-in-science-maths-and-reading
• Peter Martin on gdp-update-spending-dips-and-saving-soars-as-we-stash-rather-than-spend-our-tax-cuts
• Geoff Hammer on to-restore-public-confidence-in-apartments-rewrite-australias-building-codes
• Alex Reilly on explainer-the-medevac-repeal-and-what-it-means-for-asylum-seekers-on-manus-island-and-nauru
• Nick Martin on those-who-helped-the-medevac-repeal-bill-to-pass-should-hang-their-heads-in-shame
• Nick Gruen on weve-already-had-our-very-own-brexit

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-lets-go-back-to-good-old-tariff-cutting, guest-contribution-is-capital-flow-management-effective-evidence-based-on-u-s-monetary-policy-shocks
• Progrowth Liberal on the-current-state-of-us-dairy-industry, bicycles-and-wine-tariffs
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-administration-achievements
• the conversable economist on whose-charitable-giving-and-for-what-purposes-gets-a-tax-break
• Ezra Klein on rudy-giuliani-impeachment-explained
• Dan Crawford on whats-behind-the-subprime-consumer-loan-implosion
• Thomas Rid on who-created-ukraine-did-it-conspiracy-theory
• Amy Davidson Sorkin on what-the-law-professors-brought-to-the-trump-impeachment-hearings

Europe

• Mainly Macro on will-uk-voters-really-vote-for-the-republican-party-and-our-own-donald-trump, some-thoughts-on-labours-campaign
• stumbling and mumbling on the power of the recall, the-tories-shrinking-class-base

Asia

• Catherine Kim on iraq-prime-minister-adel-abdul-mahdi-resigns-anti-government-protests
• Robert E Kelly on moon-jae-s-foreign-policy-reorientation
• Kirsten Han on facebook-caves-singapore-censorship-writing-wall
• the conversable economist on revisiting-industrial-policy-question-in-eastasia

Wonk

• the conversable economist on production-use-and-fate-of-all-plastics-ever-made
• Uneasy Money on graeber-against-economics
• Rodger Shanahan on terrorism-recidivist-risk
• Eric Kramer on the-case-for-carbon-taxes-part-i-political-subversion
• Ray Moynihan on time-to-end-drug-company-distortion-of-medical-evidence
• Frances Woolley on does-cohort-size-matter

General

• Vincent Ho on why-is-my-poo-green
• Cat Moir on explainer-the-ideas-of-kant

Climate

• David Appell on ronald-bailey-still-gets-it-wrong
• Open Mind on european-heat-waves, winter-is-here, the-thermometer-is-melting, /making-adjustments-to-temperature-data
• Stoat on if-youre-climate-or-energy-researcher-the-the-chances-are-the-fossil-fuel-industry-owns-you
• Moyhu on november-global-surface-templs-down-from-october
• and Then Theres Physics on stocks-and-flows
• Real Climate on how-good-have-climate-models-been-at-truly-predicting-the-future
• Dan Crawford on the-case-for-carbon-taxes-part-ii-political-sustainability

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• when-speculating-about-causes-of-trends-in-mortality-rates-a-make-sure-that-what-youre-trying-to-explain-has-actually-been-happening-and-b-be-clear-where-your-data-end-and-your-speculations-b
• dont-believe-people-who-say-they-can-look-at-your-face-and-tell-that-youre-lying
• some-call-it-mrp-some-mister-p-but-the-full-name-is
• amazing-coincidence-what-are-the-odds
• whats-wrong-with-bayes-whats-wrong-with-null-hypothesis-significance-testing
• unquestionable-research-practices
• a-bayesian-view-of-data-augmentation
• whats-wrong-with-bayes
• would-republicans-pay-a-price-if-they-vote-to-impeach-the-president-heres-what-we-know-from-1974
• whats-wrong-with-null-hypothesis-significance-testing
• pfizer-had-clues-its-blockbuster-drug-could-prevent-alzheimers-why-didnt-it-tell-the-world
• are-you-tone-deaf-find-out-here
• statschat on graphical-inflation

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• unified-theory-public-basic-research
• optimal-policy-responses-growing-polarisation-occupations-space
• demographics-and-technology-explain-secular-stagnation-and-more
• chile-s-insurgency-and-end-neoliberalism
• china-shock-and-employment-portuguese-firms
• systemic-consequences-outsourcing-cloud
• aggregate-and-distributional-effects-financial-globalisation
• fiscal-policy-cannot-save-ecb
• stabilising-stablecoins-pragmatic-regulatory-approach
• bridging-growing-divides-dg-ecfin-s-annual-research-conference-2019
• price-trends-over-product-lifecycle-and-monetary-policy
• macroprudential-liquidity-requirements
• public-debt-and-private-investment
• role-standards-diffusion-new-technologies
• circular-relationship-between-productivity-growth-and-real-interest-rates
• sluggish-updating-information-and-consumer-spending
• post-disaster-subsidies-small-and-medium-firms
• household-heterogeneity-and-government-spending-multiplier
• policy-change-needed-accelerate-investment-structural-transformation

Pot Pouri : Folau, Medevac, GDP, Bob Willis

A whole lot occurred yesterday.
Let us examine a few of them.

Israel Folau

Both parties agreed to settle. I am bitterly disappointed that Folau did so as everyone needs to know if anyone says something on social media in THEIR time can be a sackable offence.
That said I can understand why he did settle. No-one can forecast where courts may head despite how confident you are in your case. Getting a substantial sum is as good as winning.
In this case Rugby Australia settled for a few reasons few people have mentioned.  Folau had a large war chest to call on so could easily match them. He had the best legal counsel for this case in Australia and there are legal precedents for his team to rely on
Perhaps now he could take legal action against both Rugby Australia and the NRL for not being allowed to play.

Medevac

Nick Martin  says it all. Why are there any asylum seekers. This government has been in power for over 6 years. Au rely these people are either refugees or not! HERE is an explainer
The government has leaked that at present no persons who have come to Australia are in hospital and in the community.
Two problems here. Patients do not need to go to hospital for all specialist treatment and even could well be out of hospital after treatment. Why oh why do not journalists ask follow up questions.

ALL asylum seekers have to live in a detention centre
Let us be completely direct. no CHRISTIAN could support this.  ( Either now or when it originally started.)

National Accounts

Peter Martin has stolen my thunder. I will simply say we have anemic growth at present.

Bob Willis
Alas Bob Willis dies from cancer. Se HERE and HERE. He had a unique bowling action that in IMHO reduced his pace and effectiveness. He only bowled inswingers not outswingers however he did have an impressive test record. He wasn't a bad commentator as well.

Update:

I should call out two lies.

Firstly Israel Folau has never been against any groups from playing rugby Union indeed quite the opposite. Was this one of the reasons RA folded?

Secondly no person from Manus has come to Australia to have any treatment involving his penis.