Around the Traps 2/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Christoph Nedopil on chinas-economy-is-changing-rapidly-its-no-longer-australias-easy-export-market
• Abu Barkat on australias-legacy-systems-were-already-a-cyber-risk-ai-agents-are-raising-the-stakes
• Michelle Grattan on larissa-waters-steps-down-as-greens-leader-due-to-health-reasons
• Stella Huangfu on rba-lifts-rates-to-highest-level-in-15-years-risking-a-sharper-slowdown-of-the-economy
• Mick Ryan on fast-following-edge-australia-defence-needs
• Hangga Fathana on australia-s-migration-dilemma-short-term-pressures-long-term-costs
• Saul Eslake on rba-inflation-blame-game-politicians-reserve-bank-australia
• Isaac Gross on inflation-lifts-to-4-0-in-august-keeping-pressure-on-the-rba-for-another-rate-rise
• Alan Duncan on interest-rates-have-hit-their-highest-level-since-2011-the-pain-will-feel-different-in-2026
• Greg Jericho on turbocharged-petrol-prices-driving-inflation-rba-rates-recession-employment
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on are-australians-really-overtaxed-it-depends-what-you-think-government-should-do

OZ Climate

• some-solar-panels-are-only-2-years-old-when-theyre-discarded-pv-expert-says-retirement-fee-could-fix-this
  
• uncharted-territory-fears-as-weather-whiplash-sparks-tree-die-off-and-dials-up-bushfire-risk
  
• too-much-wind-and-solar-the-state-wide-blackout-and-the-dinner-party-that-changed-the-course-of-history
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-finally-completed-and-acting-as-giant-shock-absorber-to-the-grid
  
• australian-households-installed-record-amount-of-rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries-in-first-half-of-2026
  
• productivity-has-been-weak-mining-and-construction-are-the-main-culprits-just-look-at-diesel-and-lng
  
• its-been-10-years-since-the-blackout-of-south-australia-could-it-happen-again
  
• the-future-of-farming-is-electric-but-outdated-rules-can-force-us-to-pay-market-rates-for-our-own-solar
  
• the-revolutionary-methane-detection-technology-that-probably-wont-fit-into-our-regulatory-box
  
• its-made-us-more-wasteful-solar-and-battery-homes-plug-in-to-a-new-age-of-abundant-energy
  
• origin-energy-drops-plan-for-massive-wind-project-in-new-england-citing-rising-costs
• Michael Vardon on unsustainable-or-manageable-we-dont-yet-know-how-data-centres-will-impact-australias-environment
• Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al on we-can-finally-measure-the-damage-each-new-coal-gas-or-oil-project-will-do-to-people-and-nature
• Phil Brewer on as-el-nino-strengthens-across-the-pacific-australian-farmers-could-face-fierce-frosts
• Liz Hicks on nsws-largest-coal-mine-project-is-set-to-expand-heres-what-authorities-got-wrong-about-the-trade-offs

Northern America

• John Quiggin on us-republicans-are-worse-than-any-far-right-european-party Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on booms-bombs-and-bonds-interest-rates-part1, i-approve-of-trumps-ad, the-beclowning-of-scott-bessent, one-more-reason-americans-hate-ai, a-globalist-comeback
• Elizabeth Bruening on maga-right-christianity-empathy-toxic
• Julian Hill on trump-unable-to-stop-clean-energy-revolution-as-wind-and-solar-output-surges-and-coal-shrinks
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oligarchy-is-a-symptom-not-the-cause
• the conversable economist on i-would-like-the-value-of-my-home-to-rise-while-my-property-taxes-fall
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-missouri-gerrymander-lower-courts-are-crazy
• Shirin Ali on watch-republican-eric-schmitt-jack-smith-perjury-hawks
• noahpinion on stop-spending-money-on-smaller-classes
• Dahlia Lithwick on donald-trump-white-house-press-ban-fail
• Helen Lewis on maga-senate-hearing-eric-schmitt
• home and away on venue
• Jeet Heer on kimberly-guilfoyle-is-a-master-of-mafia-diplomacy, susan-collins-scandal-election
• Brad De Long on us-rooftop-solar-stalled-2026
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-state-of-force-address
• Harry Litman on the-gig-may-be-up-for-trump-and-blanche

Europe

• James Skinner and Danny Hill on stripped-titles-compensating-rivals-how-the-manchester-city-cheating-scandal-could-play-out
• Maksym Beznosiuk and Thom Reilly on ukraine-war-russia-occupation-construction
• David Galbreath on us-attempts-to-control-ukraines-attacks-on-russia-reflect-a-fundamental-strategic-disconnect
• mainly macro on populist-tendencies-on-uk-left-and-the-puzzle-that-never-was

Asia

• Ann Neuburger on new-chinese-way-of-cyberwar-ai Thanks Nick
• Jaideep Saikia on china-s-gwadar-gamble-isn-t-paying-off
• Vivian Salama on egypt-israel-gaza-hamas-palestinian-october-7
• Afeeya Akhand on south-korea-s-food-waste-model-and-its-limits
• Robin Wright on irans-bitterness-and-bewilderment-over-how-to-make-peace-with-trump
• Peter Beinart on robert-kraft-netanyahu-israel-supporters

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-simon-ehrlich-wager-over-125-years
• programmable mutter on machine-god-metaphors-eat-your-brain Thanks Nick
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-xi-summit-who-is-competing
• noahpinion on wheres-the-intelligence-explosion, roundup-89-it-isnt-x-its-y
• the conversable economist on s-shaped-utility-curves-poverty-and-risk-taking
• Neophytos Georgiou on are-autistic-people-more-vulnerable-to-extremist-content
• Svitlana Chernkyh et al on can-we-predict-genocide-by-listening-to-what-leaders-say-research-finds-common-threads
• Abhijnan Rej on claude-for-clausewitz
• Ved Shinde on speed-over-judgement-is-winning-the-ai-arms-race
• Nicholas Gruen on accountability-from-above-and-below
• Chris Dillow on who-wants-free-markets
• Mark the Graph on the-fragile-equilibrium
• Stephen Leib and Guido Junior on with-a-tragedy-averted-the-flydubai-incident-has-put-cockpit-security-under-new-scrutiny

General

• Brad De Long on an-lushan-industrial-revolution-china-great-divergence
• Luke Steller et al on how-sugar-from-outer-space-became-one-of-the-backbones-of-life-on-earth

Climate

• ocean acidification on thermal-history-and-behavioural-plasticity-shape-reef-fish-tolerance-to-marine-heatwaves, the-future-of-aquatic-food-systems-climate-change-adaptation-and-resilience-strategies-a-narrative-review
• Tina Soliman-Hunter on floating-power-plants-could-offer-coastal-communities-a-reliable-energy-source-heres-how
• Graham Readfearn on antarctic-winter-sea-ice-falls-to-third-lowest-level-on-record-as-scientists-warn-of-now-problem
• Matt King and Nancy Gertier on tragedy-stopped-mawson-exploring-this-remote-antarctic-region-we-must-get-there-to-study-its-melting-ice
• Ligin Joseph on how-can-the-same-el-nino-cause-drought-in-one-part-of-the-world-and-floods-in-another
• skeptical science on impacts-record-shattering-el-nino , new_research
• renew economy on nuclear-powers-quarter-century-of-stagnation-has-no-end-in-sight-and-has-been-overtaken-by-solar-pv
• open mind on they-know-not-what-they-do

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• as-a-society-we-are-pretty-good-at-transferring-money-to-political-pundits-but-were-not-very-good-at-nurturing-the-human-capital-they-would-need-to-correct-their-own-mistakes
  
• corruption-of-government-facilitated-by-enablers-in-intellectual-society
  
• survey-of-academic-bureaucracy
  
• a-nonlinear-effect-plus-measurement-error-in-x-becomes-close-to-linear-a-simulation-study
  
• ai-chooses-nuclear-option-in-95-of-war-simulations 
  
• survey-statistics-anova-follow-up
  
• prior-distributions-partial-pooling-and-reference-sets-bayesians-are-frequentists
  
• bell-bottom-jeans-disco-gas-shortages-and-esp
  
• when-are-causal-inference-methods-needed-to-answer-causal-questions
  
• Tim Harford on random-is-as-random-does
• Kaiser Fung on mirror-images , a-or-b-but-not-both
• freakometrics on governing fairness in insurance pricing

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Lisa Herzog on how-to-run-the-ivory-tower
• Tyler Cowen on shade
• Stoat on book-review-chimpanzee-rights

Vox Wonk

• measuring-what-work-generative-ai-does-survey-evidence-versus-chat-logs 
  
• quantifying-financial-repression-through-lens-portfolio-choice-century-evidence 
  
• smokestack-illusion-who-really-pays-net-zero
  
• cost-not-innovating-frontier-ai-models-cyber-defence-and-eu-strategic-autonomy 
  
• capital-inflows-boost-output-even-after-accounting-expectations 
  
• geopolitical-risk-reshaping-global-finance-one-bank-loan-time 
  
• lifting-curtain-eus-debt 
  
• better-work-not-always-better-workers 
  
• beyond-flows-how-natural-gas-supply-risk-fuels-inflation 
  
• when-wall-street-drifts-main-street-consumption-anchor-stock-prices 
  
• changing-structure-and-challenges-international-financial-system-imbalances
  
• training-novices-think-age-large-language-models 
  
• global-imbalances-and-china-challenge
  

fiscal policy here

 Can somebody help me here.

ECON101 tells you Spending and TAXATION are important to fiscal policy. It is allied to the Structural Deficit ( or cyclical adjusted budget deficit). It is the change in the structural deficit that influences economic activity.

Why are people all talking about spending and ignoring taxation. When you do you find both the overall and the structural deficit are less than 1% and falling albeit slowly ( too slowly).

Now compare that to the USA where both are over 5%. Why is not inflation ( and therefore interest rates) going through the roof there?

One reason could be that our speed limit is smaller however it would only explain it a little.

Now I am not saying fiscal policy is right. At worst the budget should be balanced. What I am saying is that it appears everyone appears to have forgotten about taxation. If they did then the spending probleem is plainly exagerated.

The socceroos are improving but there is still work to be done

 Australia played Brazil in two friendlies and overall we went pretty well.

The first match was played on a very poor pitch at Townsville and we should have won. The second was played on a good pitch in Brisbane.

What did we learn?

Beach is a very good keeper in the australian tradition.

Our central three are very good. With Bos still injured we lack a decent left back. Our right back simply lacks class and gives away too many free-kicks, a sure sign he is playing above his ability. The replacements are average.

Our midfield lacks creativity. Why Poppa doesn't pick Robertson is beyond me. Metcalf has a great shot on him but is poor at corners. Okan was unimpressive but I would be willing to give him a go. McGree look good but had too little time.

Irankunda is a breath of fresh air and is a great dead ball specialist but he does give away silly free-kicks   ( and penalties.) I am not convinced of Yengi and hope Toure is fit for the Asian cup. It is significant that when Irankunda leaves the field we lose most of our attack. He also has no-one to pass him the ball into space. Volpato absence was felt.

Still given all of this we should make the final of the Asian cup particularly if our injured players come back and might even win it.

If we do not get to the final then we have failed!!

Interest rates

 I am not writing about interest rates tomorrow but my beloved socceroos games agin Brazil.

The RBA will raise interest rates today by 25 points. It has too because it has, like many of us, underestimated the inflationary pressures in the economy.

Now I do believe the budget should at least be in balance however it is only 1% of GDP. People who keep on talking about spending ignore taxation. They also ignore the structural deficit is falling not rising.

If this was the key to inflation rising then the USA should have massive inflation given their deficit is over 5% and their structural deficit is much larger and rising!

I suspect the economy will slow and thus inflation will drop next year at worst.

I still believe it needed 'Bernie Fraser' to replace Phillip Lowe. The RBA got it badly wrong on how to combat covid yet Chalmers did not introduce any new 'thinking'

A couple of things

 Donald Trump

I cannot believe what i am reading. Trump was a convicted criminal when he was elected President. He was found guilty of fraud, the company he heads was found guilty of fraud, he was found guilty of sexual assault and he 'changed' his book keeping so people could not find out he paid a porn actress. In other words both Judges and juries found trump to be a liar.

and some people are shocked that he has a lawless administration.

Oh and 2024 was the only time Trump was a winner in overall terms and has never shown he actually has the political touch either.

Polls in america

There is some very wierd polling going on. Will texas get a democrat governor. some polls say yes others say not a chance. Plus there are states like Kansas, Florida, South Carolina that appear close. It is fantastic for political junkies like me.

Interest rates.

I do hope someone who believes government spending is causing inflation ( and conveniently forget about taxation) tell us why the USA do not have way higher interest rates given that Our deficit is around 1% of GDP and theirs is over 5%!

AI

I have yet to see why and how AI will drive much higher productivity rates. The other thing AI subverted a number of sites right around the world. Imagine the damage that could be done by bad actors.

and why isn't anyone talking about how AI companies are helping push up interest rates and how data centres are pushing up inflation?

Around the Traps 25/9/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Long on bill-kelty-one-nations-giant-tax-avoidance-scheme Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on thirty-years-of-australian-monetary-policy-in-six-charts, the-era-of-cheap-money-is-over
• Peter McDonald on the-governments-migration-policy-prioritises-knee-jerk-politics-over-careful-planning
• Don Gunasekeara on will-el-nino-send-food-prices-soaring-this-summer
• Alicia Herrero on the-trade-climate-has-already-changed-canberra-is-still-adjusting-too-slowly
• Alan Gamlan on canada-is-managing-migration-without-taking-a-sledgehammer-approach-heres-how-australia-can-too
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on australia-in-the-2060s-an-optimistic-outlook-dominates-budget-forecasts-in-the-intergenerational-report 
• Vincent Hurley on australia-is-responding-to-domestic-violence-after-the-event-not-preventing-it-from-happening
• Nick Garvin and Elyse Dwyer on will-investors-be-better-or-worse-off-under-new-housing-tax-changes-see-what-18-years-of-data-reveals
• Greg Jericho on single-couple-or-family-not-all-australian-middle-income-earners-are-equal
• Inga Lass on many-australians-are-overqualified-for-their-jobs-which-comes-at-a-price-new-data-shows
• Michelle Grattan on danielle-woods-blunt-message-to-politicians-dont-undermine-public-trust-by-attacking-institutions
• James Curran on the-trouble-with-albanese-calling-china-a-hegemon
• Meena Jha on what-does-the-openai-medicare-hack-reveal-about-australias-cyber-security

OZ Climate

• renewables-hit-more-than-80-pct-of-grid-demand-for-first-time-despite-heavy-throttling-of-wind-and-solar
  
• we-dont-simply-see-turbines-graziers-say-hosting-wind-farms-eases-pressure-on-land-and-helps-prepare-for-drought
  
• explainer-who-will-set-australias-rules-for-home-energy-devices-such-as-solar-plug-in-batteries-and-evs
  
• nsw-takes-lead-on-mandatory-solar-panel-recycling-as-ministers-call-for-urgent-action-on-rising-tide-of-waste 
  
• like-spinning-42-plates-in-the-air-at-the-same-time-how-this-impossible-project-broke-australias-wind-drought
  
• huge-landowner-led-wind-project-seeks-green-tick-despite-looming-threat-to-transmission-link
  
• hold-the-front-page-cost-of-clean-energy-transition-just-shrank-by-100-billion 
  
• a-turning-point-for-grid-forming-inverters-in-australias-grid-transition-plan
  
• why-australias-energy-transition-needs-quantum-in-the-mix
  
• coalitions-pursuit-of-agent-orange-climate-policies-will-deliver-an-investment-apocalypse-soon-enough
  
• Adam Morton on the-coalition-says-it-wants-cheaper-power-not-ideology-but-its-evidence-free-plan-is-ideology

Northern America

• institutional economics on geoeconomics-and-the-end-of-the-american-age
• Ephrat Lini on kenneth-feinberg-sept-11-compensation Thanks Nick
• Andrew Gelman on living-on-the-edge-aggressive-mediocrity-at-the-summit-of-americas-intellectual-culture Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on economic-size-and-economic-power, why-does-everyone-hate-trumps-tariffs, of-donald-and-diesel, will-crypto-crash-the-blue-wave, its-underwear-on-the-outside-time, donald-the-deadbeat-does-diesel
• Lisa Rubin on if-trump-and-others-violate-a-courts-order-on-the-kennedy-center-would-there-be-any-real-consequences 
• noahpinion on how-we-can-beat-china
• Brad De Long on warsh-triangulating-not-confused, real-price-diesel-oil-shocks-republican-wars
• Zack Beauchamp on settler-terrorism-west-bank-mike-huckabee 
• Tom Nicholls on trumps-arch-arsenal
• the conversable economist on us-manufacturing-jobs-the-long-transition , a-us-federal-budget-chartbook
• Harry Litman on the-doj-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-united-nations-speech
• Paul Waldman on susan-collins-fbi-investigation-trump
• Mathew Ricketson on trump-has-banned-more-media-and-started-his-own-tv-channel-in-the-process-he-risks-further-eroding-american-democracy
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-impeachment-massie-gop
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-xi-china-summit

Europe

• Alasdair McCallum and Pete Lentini on russias-parliamentary-elections-will-not-be-a-referendum-on-the-ukraine-war-or-anything-really
• Thomas Wright on europe-afd-far-right
• Tyler Cowen on uk-productivity-higher-than-we-had-thought
• Shannon Brincat and Juan Caceres on trump-declares-victory-in-greenland-but-the-deal-exposes-a-deeper-crisis-of-trust
• Mark Pierce on pyrrhus-petraeus-putin-and-the-perils-of-ending-a-war
• mainly macro on how-should-government-meet-its-golden-rule-when-debt-interest-increases
• Amy McCauliffe on russia-ukraine-war-is-accelerating-the-dangerous-race-toward-fully-autonomous-drones

Asia

• Andrew Orchard on child-nisa-japan-s-attempt-to-redirect-asia-s-generational-wealth
• Graeme Wood on israel-secular-religious-divide
• Rodger Shanahan on israel-may-soon-learn-occupation-and-devastation-are-no-guarantee-of-security
• Richard Brody on naza-puts-israel-face-to-face-with-the-war-in-gaza

Wonk

• Melanie Mitchell on misleading-metaphors-and-real-risks Thanks Nick
• Raymond Geuess on the-carapace-cracks Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-update
• Tim Harford on why-the-story-of-the-vegetable-lamb-was-believed
• Brad De Long on crosspost-nick-gruen-hobbes-spin-bullshit-public-reason, needed-better-metaphors-for-ai-than-machine-god
• Stan Karanasios on calls-for-global-regulation-of-ai-are-growing-what-exactly-could-it-look-like 
• Toby Walsh on how-would-ai-actually-kill-all-humans-here-are-the-top-5-scenarios
• Lurion De Mello on as-renewed-chaos-grips-the-oil-market-one-country-is-keeping-global-prices-down-by-reducing-demand
• Daniel Flitton on p4m-a-new-club-for-middle-powers-and-the-same-old-habits
• Dimples Lyong on hostile-influence-peddling-slopaganda-style
• noahpinion on the-problems-with-utilitarianism
• Erika Feller on the-un-is-facing-a-crisis-of-trust-and-possible-bankruptcy-its-new-leader-will-have-an-enormous-challenge
• Chris Bertram on into-the-darkness
• Nic Bisley on the-other-summit-season-brics-and-the-sco-have-spotted-a-gap
• slow boring on the-ai-apocalypse-canon-and-why-it-matters

General

• David O'Hara on libraries Thanks Nick
• get down and shruti on psalm-happy-birthday-coltrane Thanks Tyler

Climate

• moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0136-from-july
• the conversable economist on energy-and-carbon-emissions-some-global-ground-truths
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-drives-grazer-niche-convergence-and-trophic-homogenization-in-benthic-communities
• skeptical science on rapid-himalaya-warming-geohazard-cascades
• David Cappell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-only-10th-lowest
• Luwei Yang and Callum Shakespeare on earths-tides-are-shaped-by-more-than-the-moon-and-theyre-changing-as-the-planet-warms
• Hannah Kessenich et al on septembers-ozone-hole-was-the-biggest-in-20-years-the-warning-signs-appeared-months-ago

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats )

• meritocracy-to-morrow-and-meritocracy-yesterday-but-never-meritocracy-to-day 
  
• the-immigration-and-nationality-act-of-1952
  
• how-did-it-go-this-prediction-from-ten-years-ago-about-chinese-fertility-in-2026
  
• do-high-school-students-have-to-work-harder-nowadays 
  
• phonics-is-a-fad-but-its-also-good-so-we-should-do-it-anyway-even-though-it-will-probably-disappoint-people
  
• survey-statistics-fat-bear-week-2026
  
• heres-a-causal-inference-problem-where-did-the-estimate-of-64-million-come-from-in-blake-lively-says-she-suffered-64-million-financial-fallout-from-justin-baldoni-conflict 
  
• junk-polls-and-junk-survey-research-they-go-together-so-well
  
• they were trying to convince everybody to have 3 kids
• Kaiser Fung on when-statistical-models-fail, whats-an-ad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Richard Parry on keeping-up-with-the-kims Thanks Nick
• Ved Shinde on reading-abbott-s-australia-from-abroad
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• new-jobs-140-years-data-why-ai-displacement-fear-overstated-and-what-worry-about 
  
• why-we-spend-so-much-time-meetings 
  
• beyond-trade-diversion-how-us-china-trade-war-reshaped-global-production 
  
• anatomy-rise-monetary-policy-and-post-covid-surge-long-term-interest-rates 
  
• building-resilience-global-financial-shocks-emerging-markets 
  
• productive-firms-can-better-spot-and-deploy-their-internal-talent 
  
• energy-transition-progress-and-challenges 
  
• how-data-centres-affect-electricity-prices-and-for-whom 
  
• quality-capital-allocation-europe
  

A couple of simple things to get rid of the deficit

 Our budget deficit is around 1% of GDP. (The US is over 5%!!)

Here are three policy action that could reduce that substantially but of course are politically difficult.

1. Get rid of the ridiculous subsidy to WA via the GST
2. impose a means test on all government programs
3. Take the NDIS back to its roots. Only those with physical disabilities get help.

Scott Morrison is responsible for the GST rot to WA. It is nothing short of a disgrace the richest State gets more money. Saul Eslake says this was the worst policy mistake of the 21st century. I agree. WA voters would not like it however

In some ways Albo has imitated John Howard. Howard brought in middle class welfare bigtime when the resources boom was taking off. Able has simply copied him without the boom. Our family should not have been subsidised in getting solar panels nor a battery.Taking away benefits always hurts the incumbent government.

We simply do not have the money to help everyone getting help via the NDIS. Only allowing those with physical disabilities would significantly reduce it cists, Again taking away benefits would entail political pain.

These are but three options but you can see the political problems involved. I am doubtful any party can do it and a revenue boost is our only hope.