Hillary Clinton was right

 In one of the debates of the 20126 election where she bested Trump she asserted Trump would be Putin's puppet and lead the USA out of NATO.

She was right and the USA is much poorer for this.

I will outsource the remainder to Kruggers. Read the Phillips O'Brien link as well.

It does show how stupid some MAGA followers are when they believe Putin that the increase in the number of NATO nations was one of the reasons for the war. NATO is like most military treaties is a defensive treaty. IF one of the NATO counties invaded another country like Russia then none of the fellow members would come to their side.

It also shows they do not follow Putin's speeches as he has constantly said Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia.

The world is a cesspit

 I am depressed.

Helen Haines

Everybody loves Helen Haines. In a sense it is understandable. She is an independent and thus unlikely to be in government and so can enunciate her views without fear or favour. Now someone has tried to kill her. It is appalling.

French riots

It seems no-one is sure who is behind the riots in France.  Mike Johnson and Emmanuel Macron blame far lefits. flags of the  hammer and sickle would seem to indicate that might have a kernel of truth. However our own public intellectual (sarc) Barnaby Joyce blames immigration and islamists. He  produced no evidence as usual to back up his claim. most of the protesters looks white to me and the journos covering it. A coalition of islamists and commies is so far fetched  that it even defies the pub test. Barnaby it is people like you not 'THEM' that are to blame.

Whoopsy I should have added riots in france over politics has been going on since at least 1968. Obviously some people have not known this.

The USA becomes an ally of Russia.

Tom Nicholls is correct in his synopsis.People have long speculated on why Trump sides with Putin. Remember trump is very stupid but thinks he is bright. That is manna from heaven to a former KGB agent.

Now something to cheer up with. Alex Tabarrok says no to AI crowding out. only problem is whether we are in a speculative AI 'boom'. For example it is absurd to argue the tulip boom did not crowd out investment. Investors were wrong in their investment decisions then. They might be now.

Go Noah

 Noah Smith of noahpinion ( get it) has a great column.

Here it is.

why-are-we-ruled-by-barbarians

Around the Traps 16/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jane Goodall on examined-lives Thanks Nick
• Marta Khomyn on after-firmus-shelved-the-biggest-asx-listing-in-30-years-what-does-it-say-to-investors-about-ai-hype
• burnout economics on australian-headline-growth-masks-failing-economy
• Antony Green on the-pattern-of-one-nation-support-in-nsw
• Susan Thorp on a-record-82-of-australian-home-loans-now-rely-on-mortgage-brokers-why
• Patrick Commins on australia-has-never-driven-migration-into-reverse-by-design-would-slamming-the-brakes-on-be-calamitous
• Ross Gittins on i-m-sick-of-immigration-being-blamed-for-problems-it-doesn-t-cause
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-urgent-choices-albanese-australia
• Peter McDonald on australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
• Nader Naderpajouh et al on australia-urgently-needs-a-national-bushfire-database-heres-what-it-could-look-like
• David Sanderson et al on 3-things-we-need-to-get-right-ahead-of-extreme-bushfire-risk-this-summer
• the tally room on new demosAU MRP how a small swing costs a lot of seats
• Kimberlee Weatherall et al on australias-digital-duty-of-care-was-just-introduced-to-parliament-so-whats-in-the-bill
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-in-australia-hits-a-five-year-high-of-4-7-making-a-rates-hike-less-likely

OZ Climate

• australias-most-powerful-battery-free-to-trade-on-market-in-major-change-to-shock-absorber-contract
  
• look-no-turbines-natural-landscape-returns-at-site-of-decommissioned-wind-farm
  
• we-dont-use-horoscopes-to-shape-national-energy-plans-so-why-put-so-much-faith-in-complex-modelling
  
• the-queensland-lnp-plan-for-coal-powered-data-centres-could-cost-taxpayers-20-billion-a-pop
  
• no-economic-case-global-experts-say-nuclear-has-role-in-some-countries-but-makes-no-sense-in-australia
  
• when-renewable-abundance-becomes-the-story-what-a-record-breaking-weekend-reveals-about-the-grid 
  
• doesnt-make-sense-australias-biggest-power-generator-not-interested-in-new-coal-fired-power-plants
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  
• how-do-we-power-the-data-centre-boom-while-also-quitting-coal-there-are-three-options
  
• large-scale-renewables-projects-reached-record-levels-of-investment-sign-offs-in-the-september-quarter-bowen-says
  
• wind-developer-signs-community-benefit-deals-worth-up-to-160m-to-end-stalemate-over-called-in-projects
• consumers-need-renewables-but-the-gentailers-are-going-for-gas-and-the-esem-cavalry-is-still-over-the-horizon
  
• Graham Readfearn on australia-solar-panels-uptake-record-through-roof, is-it-really-madness-to-account-for-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-burned-overseas-the-coalition-sure-thinks-so
• Hayley Pring  on the-high-court-looked-at-coal-climate-emissions-overseas-but-what-about-emissions-at-home

Northern America

• Richard Hanania on the-feminization-discourse-as-partisan-hackery Thanks Nick
• Chapin Lenthall-Cleary on men-are-more-tolerant-of-the-other-side-than-women-are-of-their-own Thanks Nick
• noahpinion  on maybe-the-rapture-is-already-here, why-donald-trump-won-in-2024, ai-vs-the-railroads
• platypus economics on america-doesnt-have-a-shortage-of-red-dye Thanks Tyler
• Kruggers on will-ai-crowd-out-jobs, arithmetic-suffers-from-trump-derangement-syndrome, elon-musk-shows-us-why-oligarchy-is-a-danger, nerobefehl-nation, on-inflation-trump-snatched-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory, the-bad-news-on-inflation-just-keeps-on-rising
• Zaid Jilani on texas-bo-french-indian-far-right-hate
• Adam Serwer on texas-university-censorship-free-speech
• Brad De Long on crosspost-claudia-sahm-hand-the-pen-to-the-committee, an-inflation-report-that-is-disappointingly-high, crosspost-seva-gunitsky-trumps-near-abroad, the-first-time-a-fed-easing-move-has-triggered-a-large-move in -long-term-bond-yields
• William McRaven on public-execution-nidal-hasan 
• Menzie Chinn on steve-kamin-tales-from-the-dollar-yield-curve-nexus
• Fred Kaplan on trump-putin-diesel-deal-ukraine-republicans-midterms
• David Graham on trump-doj-ilhan-omar-search
• Jonathan Chait on trump-russia-putin-oil
• Harry Litman on bring-me-the-head-of-cassidy-hutchinson 
• Michael Schmitt and Ryan Goodman on fueling-russias-war-diesel-deal-international-law 
• Liz Dye on ilhan-omar-raid-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on democrats-trump-response-project-2029
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-israel-first-mike-huckabee-david-milstein
• Cameron Peters on katie-zacharia-press-secretary-fired
• Sussan Glasser on trumps-october-surprise-is-a-pivot-to-putin

Europe

• Lauren Collins on whats-driving-the-french-student-protests
• open mind on 250-years-of-cet-central-england-temperature
• mainly macro on interest-rates-and-budget-deficits
• Chris Dillow on the-wrong-way
• Julian Novitz on sally-rooneys-books-are-being-withdrawn-from-sale-in-the-uk-due-to-her-support-for-palestine-action
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-russia-trump-putin-war

Asia

• Safiulla Taye et al on the-war-on-terror-failed-afghanistan-but-the-peoples-hopes-for-democracy-live-on
• Hunter Marston on what-to-make-of-china-s-new-air-facility-in-laos 
• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-s-overseas-workers-fund-the-regime-and-may-undermine-it-too
• Amin Saikal on yemen-is-spiralling-into-another-civil-war-that-could-swiftly-engulf-in-the-entire-region
• Kripa Anand on india-s-blue-economy-growth-is-outpacing-its-safeguards 
• Lynne O'Donnell on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Isaac Chotiner on is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-indian-democracy
• Tyler Cowen on china-fact-of-the-day
• Benedict Moleta on israel-soon-heads-to-the-polls-while-palestinian-democracy-remains-on-hold-hamas-looms-over-both
• Shadi Saif on could-the-taliban-s-new-road-to-china-drive-negotiating-power
• Mehdi Hasan on naza-israel-film 
• William Christou on israeli-settlers-attack-olive-farmers-west-bank-washington-post-journalist-heidi-levine

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-contrarian-buy-signal-on-bonds
• Michael Lind on carl-schmitts-war-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-are-global-bond-yields-rising
• Tim Harford on is-the-modern-economy-a-bit-samey
• Michelle Burgis-Kasthala on trump-misses-out-on-nobel-prize-again-and-imposes-new-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court-what-does-it-mean
• Joshua Gans on the-acemoglu-gans-exchange-on-ai Thanks Tyler 
• the conversable economics on 1974-when-both-nobel-economists-proposed-abolishing-the-prize , how-to-keep-global-agricultural-output-rising
• Alex Tabarrok on the-nobel-prize-goes-to-robert-hall-and-michael-woodford
• Brad De Long on a-second-rate-philosopher-i-cannot-read-in-his -original-greek , crosspost-larry-macdonald-how-karl-marx-achieved-financial-independence
• Ruiping Lui and Sagarika Mishra on whos-paying-whom-the-circular-money-machine-behind-the-ai-boom-or-bubble
• noahpinion on a-nobel-for-new-keynesian-macro-at-last
• home and away on ignoble
• Jeet Heer on ai-warfare-threat

General

• Jillian Hess on how-john-steinbeck-actually-wrote-east-of-eden Thanks Nick

Climate

• Fiona Harvey on ipcc-pressure-delay-publication-climate-report-ar7-cop33
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windprice , new_research
• Nick Evershed on just-what-damage-can-the-emissions-from-a-new-fossil-fuel-facility-cause-a-new-tool-has-estimates
• ocean acidification on ocean-warming-could-cut-omega-3-levels-in-seafood-study-finds

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• thinking-more-seriously-about-the-design-of-exploratory-studies-a-manifesto
  
• digital-twins-version-2-0-the-skeptics-speak-up
  
• the-problem-is-noise-not-n-why-increasing-the-sample-size-isnt-all-that
  
• columbia-university-president-says-we-believe-in-difficult-conversations-at-columbia-in-a-broad-embrace-of-freedom-of-expression-its-in-our-dna
  
• jama-rules-of-engagement
  
•  the-head-and-the-heart 
• survey-statistics-favorite-textbooks
  
• ok-heres-a-new-scam-but-i-cant-figure-out-how-its-supposed-to-work
  
• why-do-almost-all-the-cell-phone-numbers-have-no-0s-or-1s
  
• frustration-when-authors-dodge-criticism
  
• how-surprising-is-it-that-lebron-averaged-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists-in-his-career-but-never-had-one-game-where-he-had-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists
  
• seeking-to-interview-social-scientists-experimenting-with-llm-simulations-of-opinions-or-behavior
  
• freakometrics on can you be too old to insure
• Kaiser Fung on directionally-correct-bars

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Isaac Chotiner on anti-zionism-benjamin-moser-book-review Thanks Nick
• John Hawkins on this-economist-believes-the-system-is-broken-maybe-she-has-a-point
• stoat on book-review-sciences-and-philosophy 
• Tyler Cowen on lost-worlds , plunder-the-last-of-the-war-in-europe-1945
• David Frum on david-frum-show-illia-ponomarenko-ukraine-trump

Vox Wonk

• your-debt-my-inflation-role-trust-ecb 
  
• ideas-and-firm-dynamics-when-it-takes-two-tango 
  
• fiscal-populism-and-monetary-policy-rules 
  
• size-and-speed-tariff-pass-through-consumer-prices 
  
• financial-sanctions-and-global-payments-network 
  
• ratings-debt-and-deficits-exploration 
  
• risk-or-responsive-rethinking-unemployment-policy 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• connecting-payment-systems-linking-economies 
  
• tokenised-finance-towards-better-markets 
  
• small-beautiful-2050-europes-digital-economy-mesh-not-hub 
  
• accounting-cross-country-income-differences-two-decades-progress
  

Some must reads

 Busy today so some great articles to read.

• australia-has-problem-or-two , why-are-global-bond-yields-rising 
  
• australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  

enjoy

more of a whole bunch of things

 Test Cricket

SA showed they were short of a gallop. They bowled too short when they were swinging the ball more than us and their spinners looked ordinary ( after being guns in India). They will have Rabana back for the next two tests and the reason he is the premier bowler he is is that he swings the ball late and bowls a fuller length. Their batting looked ordinary except for Markram and Bedingham. Bavuma looked out of sorts and lost his first test. Their keeper had a test to forget. If SA want to know how they lost go back when you should had have us out for less than 200 but decided to bowl short to tailenders. I would not be surprised at a new keeper and some new batsmen.

We were lucky. Our batting again showed up weaknesses. One decent match or innings does not solve this. Our bowlers cannot get us out of losing if the batting keeps on struggling. Nortje only bowled around mid 140ks but still unnerved our batsmen.

The attendance was a disgrace.

Onto Port Elizabeth

Omar

Her home in Washington got raided. We are told this is about her citizenship however that is way past the statute of limitations. It is also highly unlikely the authorities got new information just now that meant the 60 day 'rule' had to be rejected. Certainly no explanation has been given. I'm no fan of hers but this raid looks very political. Saying Pirro is investigating her also means they have nothing as she is worse than useless

Witkoff and Kushner

Why anyone would think these two could do anything in regards to Russia/Ukraine is beyond me. They believe Putin when he says he has almost taken the Donetsk region. Why do they believe him because they have no intelligence on the war at hand BY DESIGN. It gets worse. When they finish with their 'talks' they then begin to negotiate trade deals.

Guilfoyle

This ambassadorship typifies Trump. She is a grifter of the highest order but a very stupid one. ( If I can make a sexist statement she looks and dresses like a tart. Also very trumpian)

Texan senate race.

I have to say how could anyone vote for a person whose name is Paxton!! You know it aint going the GOP when Paxton is caught partying with criminals in the gulf. The story about the democrat recovering in a mental institution in Ohio blows in the people's faces.

Premier League

If the allegations against Manchester City prove to be true then they should be relegated. This is what occurred in Italy.

Gerard Henderson watch

 I have decided since our mate Gerard  calls all people he disagrees with as comrade I will call him Herr Henderson.

I should say from the outset I have rarely read a person who sneers and is so condescending and then criticizes others. for the same thing.

Herr Henderson said a while ago it was a lot of tosh that Hanson's daughter  who is living in tasmania but working for a NSW senator that she could not do the job as others were doing this.. Now it could be he says this as he was a failed chief of staff for Howard when he was Opposition leader. Herr Henderson might even support working from home fulltime however it is a joke to think a person in another state could do a decent job. Interaction is a necessity assuming she is doing research and not electoral work.The number of mobile phone calls would be enormous assuming her phone is in the right areas. so it rings and she is the office. We know One Nation senators do not do a lot of work and their speeches are never livened with much research. Add this to the fact that Hanson's daughter is trying to be a senator then it seems highly likely taxpayers are subsidising her candidacy. All this is news to Herr Henderson. Can you bear it.

He had a go at Ross Gittins who was actually wrong about why the RBA is now independent when conducting monetary policy. He made the point previously government's did the hard yards with fiscal policy. Herr Henderson alleges Ross was not giving government spending enough recognition. I said previously Herr Henderson did not understand economics and this is a clear example. Ross was actually doing this he merely mentioned taxation! Can you bear it.

When Taylor had a trainwreck of an interview with Sarah Ferguson he claimed she was rudley scolded him. Strange few others saw this.Nor did he like Sally Sara interviewing Matt Canavan on the topic who clearly did not address the question Sara had to ask quite a few times. Remember you cannot interject when anyone does not answer the question asked according to Herr Henderson. Can you bear it.

He also had a rambling account of how white skinned Shoebridge beat the pakistani Faruqi and how ironic he supported DEI. I will leave that but Herr Henderson then said if she had have won, likely  if all green members could vote, she would be as bad a Mamdani in NY. Huh his approval rating is in the 60s. Most people rate him as a superb political athlete! Does anyone really think Faruqi is in the same class as Mamdani. Can you bear it. 

Herr Henderson never examines the faux paus at Sky after dark ( yeah I know they have changed their name but I like saying it). So Peta Credlin makes a rookie mistake of saying THE GOVERNMENT took being jewish off the census he never mentions it. It has NEVER been on a census. Real journalists do not do that. Mediawatch for example has frequently highlighted ABC errors. Not Herr Hendersson though

After Ian Dunt (a person who Herr Henderson dislikes) said Ed Miliband had done a good job he pointed out energy costs had rose when Miliband was minster implying it was because of Miliband's support of renewables. Whoops Herr Henderson obviously missed the UK's reliance on gas and how far gas  prices rose following the invasion of Ukraine. This is why the UK's inflation so much more than other nations. As I have previously said Herr Henderson has little understanding of economics! Can you bear it.