My experience with State polling

 A couple of days ago I got a phone call from EMRS. They asked me which suburb i lived in and the poatcode. I told them and they said great. They wanted to do a poll on the seat of ryde for the NSW election. I told them I was not in Ryde but Epping.  The man was insistent no you are in Ryde.

I told him where Ryse changed into Epping and how eastwood public school had booths for both Ryde and Epping. He wanted to go ahead nevertheless. This we di until the last question which was who I voted for in the last election and who i would vote for in the next election.

I again had to tell him I do not live in the Ryde electorate. now he relented and said he would tell his supervisor!

Kevin Bonham has often told us about how useless these poll seat surveys are. My experience simply confirms this.

Covid, dying from it and with it.

 Kathy Eagar comes to our rescue to help explain what the difference is between dying from covid and dying with it.

More people dies from covid in January this year  than from the flu for the WHOLE of last year.

It needs to be taken seriously.

NSW election should go to the ALP

 We have two polls before the NSW election on the last saturday in March.

If history is any guide the ALP will win. They will either win in a landslide, win easily or be a minority government. An easy win is possibly the clearest option.

Firstly voters come back to the government when the campaign starts. Secondly campaigns rarely make a difference and in those rare circumstances only if it is very close.

Although the present government had made a fair go of governing there is a definite smell of its time about them. Infighting only exacerbates this. Chris Minns the ALP leader has rarely made a bad step although on gambling he does look all at sea.

Let us see what happens

Around the Traps 27/1/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jim Stanford on if-you-havent-joined-a-union-its-time-you-paid-to-benefit-from-union-deals
• Ivor Stuart on exploding-carp-numbers-are-like-a-house-of-horrors-for-our-rivers-is-it-time-to-unleash-carp-herpes
• Grant Duncan on chris-hipkins-becomes-nzs-new-prime-minister-there-are-two-ways-it-can-go-from-here
• Robert Ayson on jacinda-ardern-s-foreign-policy-legacy
• renew economy on why-networks-should-not-be-left-in-charge-of-labors-community-battery-plans, epa-details-its-carbon-crackdown-on-industry-and-fossil-fuel-generators-are-not-happy, australias-biggest-wind-turbine-erected-at-what-will-be-largest-wind-farm-in-nsw, full-price-benefits-of-wind-and-solar-wont-be-seen-until-we-get-rid-of-gas, coal-states-miss-out-on-benefits-of-cheap-wind-and-solar-pay-twice-the-price-of-power, 
• Johanna Reidy on the-cost-of-school-uniforms-is-a-barrier-to-education-but-there-are-ways-to-level-the-playing-field, glimpse-of-the-future-south-australia-peaked-at-91-5-pct-wind-and-solar-when-links-were-down, renewable-transition-faces-critical-moment-as-ministers-decide-on-transmission-access, aemo-report-confirms-wind-and-solar-best-cure-for-fossil-fuel-hyper-inflation, 
• Isaac Gross on with-inflation-still-rising-the-rba-will-almost-certainly-lift-interest-rates-in-february
• Benjamin Jones on australia-day-hasnt-always-been-on-january-26-but-it-has-always-been-an-issue
• croaking cassandra on a-mixed-bag
• Greg Jericho on inflation-has-hit-78-over-the-last-year-so-why-arent-australians-running-for-the-hills
• Grant Duncan on this-election-year-nz-voters-should-beware-of-reading-too-much-into-the-political-polls
• Mark the Ballot on inflation-december-2022

Northern America

• Greg Robb on fed-must-keep-raising-rates-until-it-is-certain-inflation-has-stopped-climbing-kashkari-says Thanks Brad
• Robert Kuttner on debt-ceiling-mccarthy-republicans-biden Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-crashing-through-the-debt-ceiling
• Peter Joy on what-is-involuntary-manslaughter-a-law-professor-explains-the-charge-facing-alec-baldwin-for-rust-shooting-death
• Mathew Schafer and Jeff Kosseff on new-york-times-sullivan-supreme-court-defamation-law
• noahopinion on the-fiscal-arsonists, the-big-tech-layoffs-are-a-turning-point
• the conversable economist on american-doubts-about-health-care
• Umair Irfan on federal-reserve-jerome-powell-climate-change-citigroup-jpmorgan
• Dahlia Lithwick on roe-anniversary-politics-power-amidst-uncertainty
• the status kuo on the-kavanaugh-cover-up Thanks Brad
• Ben Jacobs on george-santos-scandal-lies
• newdeal democrat on how-fhfa-cpi-using-house-prices-rather-than-oer-shows-a-sharp-deceleration-in-inflation, index-of-leading-indicators-says-recession-almost-certain-so-what-of-the-coincident-indicators
• Jeet Heer on politics/hochul-hector-lasalle-nomination, jeffrey-zients-biden-disaster
• Jillian Peterson and James Densley on typical-mass-shooters-are-in-their-20s-and-30s-suspects-in-californias-latest-killings-are-far-from-that-average
• Ian Millhiser on trump-judge-matthew-kacsmaryk-press-freedom-antitrust-childrens-health-defense-washington-post
• Melvyn Leffler on fear-power-and-hubris-bush-and-iraq-war
• Nathaniel Rakich on republicans-house-speaker-polls
• Dennis Warmstead and Seth Feaster on feasibility-rapid-transitions-80-percent-carbon-free-electric-grid-reachable

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-emotion-in-euro-area-monetary-policy-communication-and-bond-yields-the-draghi-era
• Ellen Ioannes on ukraine-new-weapons-not-german-tanks-russia-nato-poland,
• Mathew Sussex on why-cant-the-west-agree-on-how-much-military-support-to-send-to-ukraine
• Alexander Hill on why-russias-war-in-ukraine-today-is-so-different-from-a-year-ago
• Mainly Macro on should-quantitative-easing-be-reducing-public-services
• renew economy on germany-outlines-step-to-reach-30gw-of-offshore-wind-by-2030
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-war-germany-leopard-tanks-zelenskyy-russia-putin, ukraine-corruption-officials-resignation-purge
• Pamela Druckerman on paris-france-retirement-pension-reform-protests
• Fred Kaplan on putins-wars-from-chechnya-to-ukraine-galeotti
• Nikola Mikovic on how-russia-loses-allies-amid-war-ukraine
• Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khordorkosvky on ukraine/dont-fear-putins-demise thanks Nick

Asia

• Duncan Graham on how-australian-freed-unfinished-nation-s-history
• Justin Brown on how-will-china-s-punitive-trade-restrictions-against-australia-end
• Alexandre Dayant et al on chinese-aid-pacific-decreasing-not-disappearing
• noahopinion on actually-japan-has-changed-a-lot
• Mubashar Hasan on sanctions-help-bring-accountability-bangladesh
• Nitish Phawa on modi-question-bbc-documentary-censorship-india-twitter-youtube

Wonk

• Rebecca Elliot on tesla-stock-elon-musk-electric-vehicle Thanks Brad
• rough diamonds on why-infinite-coin-flipping-is-bad Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on how-much-does-aging-really-hurt-a-country
• Peter Dorman on extending-capital-to-nature-reducing-nature-to-capital
• Daniel Jolley et al on how-to-talk-to-someone-about-conspiracy-theories-in-five-simple-steps
• Mercedes Page on travel-back-summit-diplomacy-revamped
• Uneasy Money on franklin-fisher-on-the-disequilibrium-foundations-of-economics-and-the-stability-of-general-equilibrium-redux, an-updated-version-of-my-paper-robert-lucas-and-the-pretense-of-science-has-been-posted-on-ssrn
• Menzie Chinn on instantaneous-inflation, rookie-economist-errors-a-compendium
• the conversable economist on is-globalization-fading
• Marina Zhang on lithium-lightest-metal-earth-carries-heavy-geopolitical-weight
• Austen Gilkeson on the-lore-of-the-rings
• noahopinion on would-breaking-up-google-really-do-ant-good
• Klents on investing on equal-weighting-works-but-why

General

• Tim Harford on your-absurd-hypothetical-questions-answered
• Fred Jourdan and Nick Timms on our-solar-system-is-filled-with-asteroids-that-are-particularly-hard-to-destroy-new-study-finds

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-gulf-stream
• moyhu on giss-december-global-temperature-up-from-november
• Bei Cui et al on the-worlds-carbon-price-is-a-fraction-of-what-we-need-because-only-a-fifth-of-global-emissions-are-priced
• stoat on the-partisan-divide-largely-stems-from-the-conservatives-perception
• met office on how-does-humidity-affect-health

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats) 

• we-found-that-almost-no-respondents-currently-report-probabilistically-perhaps-more-surprisingly-most-respondents-who-claimed-to-report-probabilistically-in-fact-do-not
  
• the-twists-and-turns-of-cultural-politics-who-to-blame-for-a-bad-ghostwritten-book
  
• youre-invited-media-event-art-basel-week
  
• students-learn-more-from-active-classrooms-but-theyre-not-always-aware-of-this
  
• water-treatment-and-child-mortality-a-meta-analysis-and-cost-effectiveness-analysis
  
• efficient-leave-one-out-cross-validation-for-bayesian-non-factorized-normal-and-student-t-models
  
• labeling-the-x-and-y-axes-heres-a-quick-example-where-a-bit-of-care-can-make-a-big-difference
  
• what-are-the-most-important-statistical-ideas-of-the-past-50-years-2
  
• Freakometrics on optimal transport for a counterfactual estimation 
• Kaiser Fung on too-good-to-be-true-instinct

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• books-at-a-conference-3
  

vox wonk

• some-remarks-reconstruction-assistance-ukraine
  
• openness-trade-and-regional-growth-evidence-italy-during-first-globalisation
  
• responses-covid-19-role-policy-space
  
• banks-exposures-high-carbon-assets-may-represent-medium-term-vulnerability-financial
  
• robot-adoption-worker-firm-sorting-and-wage-inequality-evidence-administrative-panel
  
• agglomeration-effects-developing-economy-evidence-turkey
  
• monetary-policy-inflation-and-crises-new-evidence-history-and-administrative-data
  
• commute-time-savings-when-working-home
  
• quantifying-macroeconomic-impact-covid-19-related-school-closures-human-capital
  
• high-inflation-erodes-trust-ecb
  
• equality-monetary-policy-and-central-bank-mandate
  
• labour-market-ukraine-rebuild-better
  

Australia Day should NEVER be on January 26

 Governor Phillip landed at botany Bay on January 19 but di not like it and then made his way to the magnificent sydney harbour.

Australia became Australia on January 1 1901. This is the only day we should celebrate Australia day on. Any other date is absurd. We do have an absurd history

It is like celebrating your birthday on the wrong day!!

A bit more on renewables

 Here are three articles on what is happening/ what will happen in Australia.

• coal-states-miss-out-on-benefits-of-cheap-wind-and-solar-pay-twice-the-price-of-power
  
• record-levels-of-renewable-energy-push-demand-for-electricity-to-all-time-low-for-december-quarter
  
• full-price-benefits-of-wind-and-solar-wont-be-seen-until-we-get-rid-of-gas
  

We should also note the forward markets for wholesale prices is showing a fall in prices!!

David Crosby

 David Crosby dies on the weekend.

He was a gifted musician but was 'difficult' to work  ( like our own renee geyer) with. the Byrds flicked him and
Graham Nash said at one stage he wanted nothing to do with him.

Here are two examples of him

Firstly the Byrds doing a song where the words come from the bible!

and now CSN&Y doing cinnamon girl