A rate rise is inevitable

 The March CPI was released yesterday.

Here are a few reaction:

• Greg Jericho
• Stella Huangfu
• Mark the Graph

I reject Jericho's argument and am fully in agreement with both Huangfu and Mark the Graph.

Why you ask?

I am old enough to remember the oil shocks of the 1970s and 80s. ( so is John Quiggin). I reemember the second and third round effects that embedded inflation that took years ( a decade?) to reduce and then it took a nasty recession.

I favour rates rising to 4.5%.

An education lesson for Chris Kenny

 Chris Kenny is allegedly a journalist on sky after dark. He is frequently wrong such as on global warming but sometimes gets it right like on Aboriginal rights.

He believes Jimmy Kimmel was alleging that Trump be asssisnated when he made his comedic statement .

Let us bring into context a few things which somehoow he missed.

• first of all Kimmel made his joke on late thursday night US ttime. The trumps and then their apolif gists did not react until monsay. huh. Are they that thick it takes that long to digest the joke.
• second Trump is almost 80 and very fat and eats very badly. She is 56 remembering he has traded in his earlier two models.  Even trying to reduce this by drugs is quite problematic
• We know courtesy of the Wolf suit she has a different apartment in New york to her husband where she sleeps.
• The couple are famous for not showing any affection towards each other.
• lastly Kimmel is well known for making comedic statements on his late night show

How could a 'jopurnalist' not know any of this indeed why did kenny take ssol ong to be affronted by kimmel?

Mark the Graph on fire

 If you are not reading Mark the Graph then you are missing out on something special.

I'h here to help.

• stagflation
  
• stagflation-lead-in-australias-saddle  
• inflation-causes-diagnosis-and-cures  
  

I wil warn you they are lenghty articles but are well worth reading.

The Liberals are mad

 The Liberal party is preferencing one nation in the Farrer by-election. Let that just sink in. They are preferencing a party who is an existential thrreat to them but more importantly to the National party.

IF their prefwrences mean one nation wins then they give one nation another boost, a very big one at that, to their eelectoral stocks. Every national party in parliament will be vulnerable. (I have already given my thoughts on why Littleproud resigned). If one nation contines where they are in the polls then the Nationals wil be decimated and perhaps not even recognised as a party after the next election. The very coaltion is at risk. The Liberal regional seats are of course at high risk as well. At present this is their strength.

Further if one nation wins then they are more likely to keep it than an independent if a swing occurs against the government in the next election as is likely.

Just a minor detail for the Farrer by-election if you support much tighter immigration which the Liberals, Nationals and one nation do then where do all the small buisnesses in the electorate find employees?

another minor detail. I have met David Farley. he is a smart guy. I cannot seeing him deferring to a moroan like Hanson for very long!

The Models A tribute to James Valentine

 James Valentine died last week.He took his own life voluntary as he had cancer which was inoperable.

He was a brilliant on radio where he could make a very enjoyable radio program out of nothing. My favourite was with HG Nelson where they explored building a canal from the Northern Territory to Sydney as Subs could get here quicker!!  

Here it is

He was a very good saxophone player and had a program on ABC jazz which wasn't bad.

Here is my only favourite Models song which is a pseudo-live version of hold on

 James Reund who is the singer committed suidide a long time ago. his family are stil lwondering why sjowing why and how suicide is a very selfich act!

Around the Traps 24/4/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on net-permanent-and-long-term-arrivals ,what-australia-owes-itself , stagflation
• Peter Layton on the-new-national-defence-strategy-feels-written-for-a-bygone-era-and-ignores-the-elephant-in-the-room
• Warwick Smith on the-rbas-policy-deliberately-creates-unemployment-so-why-do-we-treat-the-jobless-so-badly
• Libby Calloway and Lloyd Walker on the-coalition-wants-ndis-reform-to-focus-on-3-things-heres-what-this-would-mean-for-users-and-the-budget
• Anja Bless and Milena Bojovic on overheated-cows-flooded-highways-and-now-a-fuel-crisis-why-australias-food-system-is-in-big-trouble
• Kevin Morrison on is-there-really-untold-oil-wealth-in-queenslands-taroom-trough-heres-why-scepticism-is-warranted
• Mark the Ballot on a-deep-dive-on-one-nation-polling
• Chris Evans on tinkering-with-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-isnt-enough-heres-why-it-needs-to-go
• Gwenda Tavan on multicultural-australia-was-built-under-a-liberal-prime-minister-the-current-party-should-take-heed
• Charlie Caruso and Richard Neuman on amending-australia-s-export-gas-regime-does-not-undermine-gas-fuel-negotiations
• Helen Dickinson and Ebe Ganon-Davey on tightened-eligibility-and-cuts-to-plans-what-the-ndis-changes-mean-for-participants
• Samantha Hepburn on foreign-companies-are-making-billions-off-australias-gas-its-time-that-changed
• Jeannie Paterson on how-court-cases-against-woolworths-and-coles-could-change-the-future-of-shopping-in-australia
• Jennifer Parker on maritime-gaps-remain-australia-s-defence
• Greg Jericho on cgt-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-changes-housing-labor-budget-2026
• Mary Watson-Burton on values-migration-test-has-definition-problem

OZ Climate

• Rusty Langdon on more-than-60-of-home-battery-installations-inspected-in-australia-are-substandard
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on this-fuel-crisis-could-last-for-a-while-its-time-for-a-new-approach-to-fuel-use-end-it
• Robert Walker on green-trade-partnerships-will-make-or-break-australia-s-renewable-superpower
• Ellen Ryan-Cotton and Christine Schlesinger on should-this-plant-be-declared-one-of-the-worst-weeds-in-australia
• Graham Readfearn on channel-seven-7news-spotlight-clean-energy-investigation-ignores-fundamental-facts
• Lisa Cox on governments-failed-to-deliver-160m-of-river-improvements-including-for-now-parched-nsw-wetlands-report-finds
• Chris Wallace on the-carbon-tax-debate-damaged-julia-gillards-leadership-and-good-climate-policy-for-years-to-come
• Chris Wright on states-have-driven-climate-action-until-now-its-time-for-the-australian-government-to-step-up
• stunning-growth-of-battery-storage-puts-it-at-centre-of-global-energy-security-needs-for-cars-and-for-grids 
  
• state-to-step-in-if-regulator-and-network-fail-to-remove-ev-charging-handbrakes-and-sort-out-tariffs
  
• wild-attack-on-batteries-and-renewables-by-7s-spotlight-program-falls-over-at-the-first-fact-check
  
• canadian-developer-lands-grid-approval-for-mammoth-new-england-solar-battery-hybrid-project
  
• the-scores-are-going-off-the-charts-iran-conflict-boosts-support-for-renewables-and-energy-independence
  
• wind-will-require-further-work-bowen-says-renewables-target-still-achievable-but-not-inevitable
  
• whyalla-steelworks-needs-long-term-viability-it-wont-find-it-with-gas
  
• just-give-us-a-shot-networks-say-community-batteries-can-right-the-wrongs-of-grid-gold-plating
  
• modelling-shows-network-tariff-reforms-will-slash-some-power-bills-and-blow-up-others-can-the-aemc-strike-a-balance
  
• hybridisation-of-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-is-no-longer-optional-its-the-new-baseline
  
• big-green-lies-are-the-rich-using-solar-to-steal-from-the-poor
  
• spotlight-has-fallen-well-short-7s-program-panned-again-this-time-on-false-turbine-allegations
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on for-whom-the-strait-tolls
• Kruggers on lies-damned-lies-and-economic-vibes , curing-us-health-care-part-i , the-vindication-of-bidenomics , kevin-warsh-is-trumps-sock-puppet
• Ana Garriga and Christina Bodea on how-trumps-repeated-efforts-to-fire-federal-reserve-chair-powell-harm-the-economy-and-make-battling-inflation-harder
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-is-a-natural-resource-curse-crowding-out-us-renewable-energy
• Tyler Cowen on on-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs
• Andrew Prokop on israel-democratic-party-criticism-arms-sales
• Fred Kaplan on trump-defense-budget-iran-war-hegseth-republicans , iran-trump-war-strait-of-hormuz-peace-talks-madman-theory
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-leak-john-roberts-the-worst
• Quinta Jurecic on doj-weaponization-working-group
• Amy Sorkin on j-d-vances-bumpy-ride
• noahpinion on no-america-is-not-in-a-stealth-manufacturing-boom
• Craig Keating on allies-are-done-waiting-america-grow
• Jessica Levinson on kash-patel-atlantic-lawsuit-actual-malice
• Christian Paz on virginia-redistricting-gerrymander-democrats-gop-middecade-referendum-fair-election-midterm-2026
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-hencely-fluor-terrorism-preemption
• Febrian Ruddyard on when-power-hesitates-world-recalibrates
• Fintan O'Toole on the-right-amount-of-crazy
• Jeet Heer on kash-patel-drinking-report-trump
• Joyce Siette and Paul Strutt on we-cant-know-if-donald-trump-has-dementia-even-if-he-did-it-wouldnt-excuse-his-actions
• Liz Dye on trump-doj-will-avenge-the-kkk

Europe

• Phillips O'Brien on ukraine-trump-us-oil-russia
• Lorinc Redei on how-orban-defeated-himself
• Menzie Chinn on how-badly-is-the-russian-economy-doing
• Catherine Wilson on hungary-bets-europe-ukraine-may-benefit-result
• Romain Faithi on how-the-war-in-iran-has-brought-european-countries-closer-together-without-trump
• Kate Cantrall and Jessica Gildersleeve on chernobyl-at-40-the-lies-the-loss-and-why-we-cant-let-go
• David Marples on forty-years-after-the-chernobyl-disaster-its-legacy-still-resonates
• Chris Dillow on the-burdens-of-office

Asia

• Marika Sosnowksi on israel-and-lebanon-have-a-ceasefire-but-global-attention-shouldnt-move-on-this-isnt-a-tidy-end-to-the-war 
• Meighen McCrae on gallipoli-has-4-lessons-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis
• Damien Kingsbury on the-myanmar-civil-war-is-at-stalemate-but-anti-junta-forces-may-be-gaining-the-upper-hand
• Tyler Cowen on the-chinese-current-account-imbalances
• Justin Bergman on both-the-us-and-iran-are-firing-on-commercial-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-both-sides-acting-lawfully
• Gabriella Bernal on north-korea-s-evolving-diplomatic-logic
• Jessica Genauer and Benedict Moleta on 3-reasons-the-war-between-the-us-israel-and-iran-is-headed-for-a-frozen-conflict
• Adam Serwer on define-jewish-state-israel
• Menzie Chinn on the-oil-shock-in-east-asia
• Renaud Foucart on the-strait-of-hormuz-shows-how-everything-is-now-about-leverage
• Zack Beauchamp on netanyahu-reelection-2026-trump-orban-magyar
• Sussan Glasser on trump-and-the-iran-deal-that-wasnt
• Seong-Hyon Lee on why-china-now-embraces-nuclear-north-korea
• Dita Liliansa on toll-malacca-strait-puts-indonesia-s-own-legal-foundations-risk
• home and away on strait-jacket

Wonk

• the second best world on the-men-are-not-okay Thanks Nick
• Dan Davies on whats-mine-is-mine-and-also-debatable Thanks Nick
• Martin Wolf on milton-friedman-donald-trump-assault-on-democracy-corporations Thanks Nick
• fresh economic thinking on finding-the-money-can-a-film-about-MMT-change-our-economic-debates Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-price-update
• Tim Harford on how-can-we-tell-good-ai-from-bad
• the conversable economist on ai-and-future-growth , industrial-policy-a-policy-menu
• Tamara May on audhd-means-being-autistic-and-having-adhd-and-it-can-look-very-different-to-a-single-diagnosis
• Menzie Chinn on aizenman-desbordes-and-saadaoui-quantifying-trade-destruction
• Kruggers on the-harm-from-hormuz
• noahpinion on updated-thoughts-on-industrial-policy , is-chinas-soft-power-really-rising-or-is-the-US-just -crumbling
• Rushala Saha on don-t-write-brics-just-yet
• Michael Schmitt on just-war-theory-iran-war
• Mark Beeson on finlands-president-alexander-stubb-has-some-ideas-to-save-the-international-order-and-ourselves
• Alex Tabarrok on the-luddites-were-the-first-to-attack-ai
• Makaela Fehlhaber on after-greenpeace-vs-norway-what-must-states-do-drilling
• Toby Walsh on why-the-worlds-banks-are-so-worried-about-anthropics-latest-ai-model
• Elizabeth Samet on are-america-and-china-condemned-repeat-history-samet

General

• Lisa Herzog on global-science-equity-towards-solutions
• Steve Prabu and James Miller-Jones on black-hole-jets-dance-in-the-wind-from-a-massive-companion-star
• Doug Muir on occasional-paper-inconstant-moon
• Alexandra Aikhenvald on what-is-a-lingua-franca-a-brief-history-from-the-crusades-to-today
• Stephen Gallagher on scientists-finally-know-how-old-the-twelve-apostles-are-and-theyre-much-younger-than-anyone-thought
• Jesse Kearse on seismic-whiplash-new-research-shows-what-happens-when-earthquakes-stop-suddenly

Climate

• Brian Oliver and Peter Irga on when-oil-refineries-burn-heres-what-happens-to-your-lungs-and-heart
• Omid Zabihi and Minoo Naebe on heres-how-using-more-recycled-plastic-could-ease-the-pain-of-oil-shocks
• Estelle Razanatsoa et al on madagascars-ancient-baobabs-store-700-years-of-climate-secrets-what-they-reveal
• skeptical science on cuba-solar-lifeline , new_research
• Wesley morgan and Ben Newell on the-end-of-oil-as-fuel-shocks-cascade-53-nations-gather-to-plan-a-fossil-fuel-phaseout
• Kate Quigley and Elise Dehont on coral-reefs-are-secretly-connected-across-vast-oceans-and-thats-crucial-for-their-survival
• Chris Taylor et al on our-efforts-to-halt-global-forest-loss-arent-working-new-research
• Tyler Cowen on the-empirically-inscrutable-climate-economy-relationship

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• in-ml-everyones-humpty-dumpty 
  
• making-your-research-free-may-cost-you
  
• eugene-wigner-and-the-moonies
  
• I have seen the future of science
• did-taylor-swift-kill-a-bunch-of-people
  
• survey-statistics-dcv-for-mrp
  
• postmodern-anti-science-attitudes
  
• fraud-and-the-false-optimism-of-ai-for-science
  
• if-the-authors-of-that-cdc-report-had-just-thrown-in-some-fake-citations-and-some-crazy-dietary-advice-the-boss-wouldve-approved-it-for-publication
  
• probability-theory-corner-my-favorite-birthday-problem-story
  
• three-things-i-forgot-to-say-today-at-the-national-academy-of-sciences-workshop-on-enhancing-scientific-integrity
  
• freakometrics on will technology saves us 
• statschat on green-and-full-of-terrors

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-not-now , that-was-then-this-is-now-57, what-ive-been-reading
• Aaron Gell on omer-bartov-israel-zionism-genocide
• Nicholas Boggs on fascinating-biography-life-recommendations

Vox Wonk

• olympic-opportunity-social-housing-policy-lessons-athens-2004-olympic-village 
  
• fiscal-institutions-matter-big-time-foreign-direct-investment-developing-economies 
  
• defence-spending-no-free-lunch
  
• improving-competitiveness-or-meeting-climate-targets-draghi-dilemma
  
• revisiting-labour-supply-trends-across-countries
  
• air-service-liberalisation-and-carbon-dioxide-emissions
  
• mobile-seniors-and-local-economic-development 
  
• central-bank-independence-update
  
• cost-effective-freshwater-biodiversity-impact-reporting-banks-evidence-pollution
  
• us-versus-them-how-political-propaganda-polarises-beliefs-without-providing-any-news 
  
• how-nation-was-born-lessons-four-centuries-brazilian-growth
  

Starmer appears stuffed

 The UK Prime minister Keir Starmer appears gawn.

For reasons I have never understood he appointed the prince of darkness to be the UK's ambassador to the USA He had to resign from Cabinet not once but TWICE!! If that was not a red light it was certainly an amber which meant a lot of investigation needed to be done on him.

Starmer whilst impressive on the foreign stage is mediocre on the domestics one.

This  comes down to two reasons.

1. A successful leader needs to have very good political judgement. Starmer does not appear to have this.
2. A successful leader needs a very good team. Paul Keating for example always had an outstanding team around him in whom he could trust. Starmer clearly does not have this. Starmer appointed them so he has to own this.

He got into trouble because his judgement was poor BUT also his team di not understood what proper process is. That Mandelson has problems with security should have set off the air raid sirens but it didn't.

Starmer's staff incompetence in this matter simply translates into Starmer's incompetence.

Reform has gained popularity over there for reasons that escape me. They are corrupt and lie with great ease and Starmer's answer to to capture a number of their policies. That never works because people usually want the originals to implement policy.

All this means Starmer is gawn.