Around the Traps 17/4/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on more-australian-lng-to-singapore-flagged-as-albanese-looks-to-strengthen-oil-supply-chain
• Antony Green on sa2026-huge-win-for-labor-but-a-warning-in-the-result
• Kate Griffiths et al on to-stop-australian-democracy-going-the-way-of-the-us-heres-what-we-need-to-do
• Kevin Bonham on the-amazing-2026-south-australian-election
• Abul Risvi on australia-immigration-powers-angus-taylor-trump
• Sam Bennett and Reilly Polaschek on the-government-wants-to-curb-ndis-spending-heres-how-it-might-succeed
• Andrew Whitehouse on autism-diagnoses-are-up-largely-fuelled-by-the-ndis-what-happens-next-isnt-entirely-clear
• Dave Jervis-Bardy on ignore-self-serving-claims-from-gas-giants-and-implement-100-tax-on-windfall-profits-ken-henry-says
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-chaos-donald-trump
• Clinton Free on employment-data-shows-the-early-signs-of-ai-job-disruption-are-already-here
• Saul Eslake on another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have
• Tony Wood on what-does-the-geelong-refinery-fire-reveal-about-australias-fuel-supplies
• Antony Green on it-turns-out-the-count-aint-over
• Mick Ryan on 2026-national-defence-strategy-delivers-more-same

OZ Climate

• Kimberly Reid on why-the-phrase-super-el-nino-makes-australian-climate-scientists-roll-their-eyes
• Adam Morton on australia-fossil-fuels-politics-electric-vehicle-savings-clean-energy
• Envirolink on sydneys-summer-season-extends-dramatically-as-global-cities-face-longer-heat-periods
• an-own-goal-that-we-dont-need-investor-group-sounds-alarm-over-new-tax-on-renewables
  
• fortescue-fast-tracks-worlds-first-large-scale-green-grid-to-eliminate-diesel-and-other-fossil-fuels
  
• birds-avoid-turbines-two-new-studies-suggest-wind-farms-are-not-killing-machines-after-all
  
• 100-pct-renewable-74-pct-of-the-time-how-australias-most-advanced-grid-plans-to-be-an-energy-powerhouse
  
• can-networks-solve-australias-chicken-and-egg-ev-problem-the-battle-for-control-of-kerbside-charging
  
• the-hours-the-market-wants-back-free-daytime-power-or-a-fix-for-solar-and-wind-curtailment
  
• most-heavy-emitters-blow-their-carbon-budgets-but-bowen-sees-clear-sign-safeguard-mechanism-is-working
  
• this-lobby-barely-blinks-when-trump-threatens-genocide-but-is-in-meltdown-when-bowen-talks-wind-and-solar
  
• australian-home-battery-installations-equal-to-almost-10-pct-of-global-utility-capacity-brought-online-in-march
• batteries-included-amazon-makes-record-haul-of-hybrid-renewable-ppas-to-power-australian-ai-push
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on u-s-dollar-dominance-in-trade-invoicing-and-cross-border-investments-in-seacen-eeconomies
• Astead Hearndon on america-actually
• noahpinion on will-americans-want-more-housing-if-it-looks-prettier , what-if-a-few-ai-companies-end-up-with-all-the-money-and-power
• Kruggers on the-dollars-special-status-sources-and-threats , how-america-is-losing-the-world , trump-wants-regime-change-at-the-fed
• Christian Paz on trump-pope-ai-blasphemy-art-christ-evangelical-religious-right
• open mind on truth-about-trump
• the conversable economist on the-us-as-an-innovation-economy , the-austin-experience-more-housing-lower-rents
• Matt Simon on ev-battery-storage-grid-renewable-energy
• Tom Nicholls on trump-pope-post-truth-social
• Garret Graf on how-much-has-the-war-in-iran-depleted-the-us-missile-supply
• Mark Stern on aclu-lawsuit-ice-reign-of-terror-maine-california
• Molly Omstead on trump-jesus-post-pope-attack-maga-reaction
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-iran-hungary-melania-epstein
• Jon Allsop on what-brought-down-eric-swalwell
• David Rhode on gabbard-revives-deep-state-conspiracy-claims-alarming-democrats-who-see-a-pattern
• Bevan Shields on trumps-state-of-mind

Europe

• Johan Norberg on how-viktor-orbans-hungary-eroded-rule-law-free-markets Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hatwich on im-a-liberal-now-but-i-still-mourn-the-slow-death-of-the-social-democrats-in-germany Thanks Nick
• future of the left reader on the-purpose-of-patriotism Thank you Nick
• Kruggers on delusions-of-grandeur-hungary-edition
• Paul Whiteley on three-reasons-donald-trump-wont-pull-the-us-out-of-nato
• open mind on march-2026-climate-in-the-usa
• Zack Beauchamp on hungary-election-results-2026-viktor-orban-peter-magyar
• Andrew Marantz on the-hungarian-election-shows-that-even-strongmen-can-lose
• Robert Horvath on he-exposed-corruption-and-walked-across-hungary-now-peter-magyar-has-defeated-a-powerful-state-machine
• renew economy on renewable-generation-records-fall-across-the-uk-as-imported-gas-consumption-tumbles

Asia

• Jennifer Parker on what-will-it-take-to-get-ships-going-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-again
• Jessica Genauer on will-the-conflict-in-lebanon-destroy-the-us-iran-ceasefire-maybe-but-it-was-already-shaky
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on middle-east-conflict-this-ceasefire-may-have-made-iran-stronger
• David Remnick on Trumps strategic and  moral failure in iran
• Sanjoy Paul on trumps-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-risks-new-costs-for-the-global-economy
• Donald Rothwell on would-a-us-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-legal
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-orban-hungary-economy
• Aniello Iannone on asean-s-energy-crisis-not-about-energy 
• Richard Heydarian on marcos-s-overture-china-masks-anxiety-about-us-reliability
• Kruggers on chinese-electrotech-is-the-big-winner
• Leon Goldsmith on strait-of-hormuz-blockade-the-complex-regional-realities-the-us-ignores-at-its-peril
• Julius Trajano on oil-shock-nuclear-surge-asia
• Colin Powers on the-emirates-on-the-tightrope
• Isaac Chotiner on the-extremes-of-israeli-public-opinion
• Johann Rebert and Nicola Nixon on asia-s-scam-centre-problem-moving-not-shutting-down
• home and away on iran-between-war-and-peace
• renew economy on worlds-biggest-co-located-wind-and-solar-project-begins-operations-in-china
• Federica Mogherini and Sahil Shah on how-to-end-the-iran-crisis
• Ali Mamouri on iran-has-a-powerful-new-tool-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-that-it-can-leverage-long-after-the-war
• Avishay Artsy and Sean Rameswaram on israel-lebanon-ceasefire-buffer-zone-hezbollah-explained
• Awais Hanif on japan-aims-shipbuilding-revival

Wonk

• institutional economics on fade-the-ceasefire-rally-its-not-going-to-last
• Brad De Long on is-the-day-of-the-data-center-about-to-be-over
• Ramon Glaznov on bearded-schizoidal-fanatics-the-revival-of-character-pathology-in-the-trump Thanks Nick
• Bruce Buchan on what-actually-is-civilisation-the-dark-and-loaded-history-behind-trumps-threat-against-iran
• Mark Alfano and Michael Klincewicz on slopaganda-wars-how-and-why-the-us-and-iran-are-flooding-the-zone-with-viral-ai-generated-noise
• Mark the Graph on weekly-update-energy-prices
• Tim Harford on the-usefulness-of-useless-knowledge
• the conversable economist on globalization-healthier-than-the-headlines , interview-with-ellen-mcgrattan-business-cycles-and-intangible-capital
• Nischal Dhungel on high-rates-expensive-oil-create-global-debt-trap
• Jing Ge on moon-governance-spotlight-after-artemis-ii
• Mathew Sussex on what-viktor-orbans-election-loss-means-for-putin-trump-and-the-rise-of-right-wing-populism
• Art Cotterill on as-artemis-ii-is-celebrated-the-world-faces-hard-questions-about-us-leadership-in-space
• Melanie O'Brien on health-care-workers-risk-their-lives-in-warzones-are-we-protecting-them-enough
• Tyler Cowen on the-venetian-empire-and-the-mongols-modeling-marco-polo
• Chris Dillow on one-cheer-for-falling-income-inequality
• Flavio Macao on will-oil-prices-ever-truly-go-back-to-normal
• noahpinion on you-are-what-you-consume

General

• Priyanka Dhopade on artemis-ii-as-humans-return-to-the-moon-which-of-these-4-futures-will-we-choose
• Samarth Kulshiresthra on the-secret-sensory-life-of-plants-researchers-are-discovering-how-they-see-hear-feel-and-even-remember
• Steve Prabhu and James Miller-Jones on black-hole-jets-dance-in-the-wind-from-a-massive-companion-star

Climate

• real climate on a-reflection-on-reflection
• ocean acidification on acidification-in-the-earth%ca%bcs-oceans-trends-and-persistence
• Mary-Ann Lea et al on the-beloved-emperor-penguin-and-antarctic-fur-seal-are-now-officially- on dangered-heres-what-can-be-done
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-down-0023-from-february
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heres-an-interesting-story-there-were-so-many-problems-with-the-survey-that-the-government-didnt-release-the-data
  
• the-ftc-does-not-have-our-backs-that-much-is-clear
  
• all-graphs-are-comparisons-and-the-relevance-of-this-principle-for-practical-advice-for-producing-better-graphs
  
• which-beliefs-are-considered-acceptable-and-which-are-not
  
• how-to-report-a-n12-study
  
• epistemic-virtues-for-science-in-the-age-of-automation 
• survey-statistics-irrelevant-alternatives
  
• can-you-hit-a-home-run-off-of-paul-skenes
  
• 
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• AI log on the-pluralistic-universe-of-michael-pollan Thanks Nick
• programable mutter on ai-has-limits-even-if-many-ai-people-can't-see-them Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-55 , that-was-then-that-was-then

Vox Wonk

• when-and-why-political-leaders-polarise-rhetoric-evidence-twitterx 
  
• more-women-politics-does-not-always-mean-more-gender-equality 
  
• great-ai-talent-migration-why-universities-are-losing-future-innovation 
  
• migration-shocks-and-voting
  
• weaker-us-job-ladder-has-slowed-wage-growth 
  
• why-global-imbalances-matter-again-and-what-do-about-them
  
• global-shocks-are-back-emerging-markets-holding 
  
• how-new-technologies-travel-evidence-global-firm-networks
  
• rapid-technology-creation-widened-inequality-across-time-and-space 
  
• bank-failures-roles-solvency-and-liquidity 
  
• value-free-health-insurance-evidence-mexicos-seguro-popular
  

some OZ stuff

 National party

Their leader who has studied and worked for the productivity commision came up with a dreadful idea yesterday. economics. He says there is plenty of oil in australia, Good thus far. He said the reason it wasn't being explored previously aa was because prices were too low to make it economic. Even better thus far. BUT he then goes on to promote a domestic oil industry. so he is in fact saying high prices will remain with us for a long time ( in the long term is the jargon) BUT he also says the present rise is only a short term phenomena. Note they are contradictory statements. Companies only invest in such ventures when they are confident of long term success. Thus would you be investing in oil exploration and refining?

Canavan is a protectionist thus saying whatever he studied at university was wrong!

climate change

I have noticed a bewildering lot of criticism coming from 'right wing' commentators at Chris Bowen. In most criticism there is a whole lot of economic ignorance. I heard one person say NSW is reliable because of our browns coal. Coal aint reliable and we have no brown coal Victoria has it!!

Batteries are roaring. This will have a significant effect on the market. We have seen commercial batteries reduce wholesale prices in the evening as they take market share from high cost gas.

Defence

As we raise our defence spending we must learn from Ukraine and its drone technology. We get a female head of army.

AI

Are we seeing the first effects of it?

The Opposition on Immigration

 Angus Kelly released his new policy on immigration. See Michelle Grattan and Abul Rizvi.

I will merely note a few things.

• There is no evidence to back up assertions. It is very one nationesque.
• They want to examine social media accounts of every immigrant. This is utter Trumpist stupidity. Are we going to say no to anyone that criticises Australian policy?
• They are going to ban immigrants from Gaza. Again on what evidence? do they realise Palestinian Christians are over-represented in immigrants thus far. Do they think they are  potential terrorists?

Pauline Hanson can get way for portraying herself as an ignorant fool because she is one. Taylor cannot.

The other thing is we are a highly successful multi-cultural nation indeed an immigrant nation.

It was very poor policy. We can only hope it improves

update:

Amanda Vanstone does not think much of the policy.

The illegal war on Iran shows incompetence in action

 Not much time today.

The New York Times has a story on how the war in Iran started. It is authored by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan ( son of norman!). There is a book coming.

Bibi convinced Trump this would be a short very winnable war which would enhance his stature and polling. They convinced him that there would be regime change so the strait of homuz would not be a problem.

This shows incompetence at is best. Few questions are asked. No history is enquired about and the triumph of Venezuela goes to his head.

Alas for the world he is still there.

I  know it is not related but only a person who has lost his marbles would show himself as Jesus. Add that to destroying Iranian civilisation then he is crackers!

A few things

 Ben Roberts Smith

I have had a gutful of his supporters saying his arrest and forthcoming trial will mean a fall in recruitment. NO IT DOESN'T!!!  Most people have a moral compass, Roberts-Smith clearly did not. Remember he has was found guilty of war crimes on the basis of probability BUT not on beyond reasonable doubt. His behaviour led to Afghanis lacking any support for the allies in Afghanistan and thus lead to the taliban regaining power. To be honest he di not have the faintest idea of what fighting a war was all about.

Hungary

I was surprised Orban gave up power so easily after losing the general election. Perhaps it was the margin. He also di not realise most hungarians want to be europeans. It is also good news for Ukraine which is great too.

Democracy

The grattan institute ( easily the best in the country) has released a great paper on this subject. Wrap your head around it. It is both interesting and thought provoking.

Eric Swalwell

This man a californian democrat is being investigated for sexually assaulting several women. I am surprised at this. He is very good and does not seem remotely likely to do such a crime but we shall see. It is clear he will have to get out of the governor's job in California.

Around the Traps 10/4/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on housing-tax-reform-without-much-housing-reform , gdp-nowcast-q1-2026 , updated-weekly-fuel-prices
• Marit Kragt on winter-crops-need-to-be-sown-but-australias-farmers-are-worried-about-fertilisers-and-fuel
• Lydia Khalil on sovereign-citizen-challenge
• Mark the Ballot on attitudinal-polling
• Michelle Grattan on a-future-plan-on-fuel-should-be-central-to-albanese-governments-reform-agenda
• Graham Young on what-happens-to-centre-right-politics-if-onenation-continues-to-rise Thanks Nick
• Gareth Evans on bob-hawke-australian-prime-minister-gold-standard
• the pollbludger on newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march
• Katja Hanewald on this-little-known-government-scheme-can-help-retirees-tap-into-3-trillion-of-housing-wealth
• Robert Breunig on by-avoiding-means-testing-the-government-is-giving-handouts-to-the-rich
• Milad Haghani et al on is-free-public-transport-a-good-idea-it-depends-on-who-gets-on-board
• the tally room on measuring marginality beyond the pendulum
• Paul Taucher and Dean Aszkielowicsz on ben-roberts-smith-is-accused-of-5-war-crime-murder-charges-how-did-we-get-here
• Helen Bird on australias-biggest-stock-exchange-needs-tougher-competition-or-we-all-risk-paying-the-price
• Greg Jericho on australia-recession-economy-rba-trump-iran
• Kevin Morrison on does-the-iran-ceasefire-mean-the-fuel-crisis-is-over-not-even-close
• John Hawkins on was-the-hawke-government-really-the-gold-standard-for-reform
• Stella Huangfu on is-australia-at-risk-of-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-actually-shows
• Tom Barber on be-informed-not-just-alert

OZ Climate

• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• an-electric-farm-an-electric-harvest-electric-everything
  
• chart-of-the-day-how-renewables-have-helped-slash-emissions-on-australias-main-grid
  
• home-batteries-get-bigger-and-bigger-as-race-to-beat-rebate-changes-sparks-last-ditch-frenzy
  
• coal-to-liquids-coalitions-latest-energy-brain-fart-is-their-craziest-yet-and-that-takes-some-doing
  
• councils-flex-their-muscle-on-renewables-laying-down-the-local-law-on-roads-farmland-and-housing
  
• how-getting-landlords-into-heat-pump-hot-water-can-get-tenants-out-of-high-gas-bills
  
• we-just-need-more-why-australia-should-double-down-on-renewables-and-evs-not-drill-baby-drill
  
• the-clock-is-ticking-coal-is-down-prices-have-fallen-but-wind-projects-are-very-very-late
  
• australia-needs-to-rapidly-electrify-as-much-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible
  
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on 6-things-australia-should-do-to-tackle-the-energy-crisis-rather-than-just-building-bigger-fuel-reserves
• Bjorn Sturmberg and Arastoo Teymouri on growing-ev-popularity-is-leading-to-queues-at-fast-chargers-could-a-kerbside-charger-network-help

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on given-projected-population-is-the-administrations-forecast-plausible ,liberation-day-plus-one-year
• Kruggers on donald-trump-isnt-sounding-like-himself, living-in-hell , the-terrorist-in-chief , our-darkest-hour, ignorance-and-ignominy , job-growth-on-ice
• new deal democrat on march-jobs-report-the-birds-that-came-home-to-roost-play-an-april-fools-joke-shrieking-nevermind , losing-the-worlds-respect
• Mary McCord on pam-bondi-trump-attorney-general-fired-retribution
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling thanks Nick
• Ilan Goldenberg on I-wargamed-iran-for-obama-this-is-the-worst-case-scenario Thanks Nick
• Barbara Perry on presidential-communication-truth-social-trump-war
• Mick Ryan on trump-s-bridge-power-day-damning-america
• Srijan Shukla on taco-fallacy
• Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz on sam-altman-may-control-our-future-can-he-be-trusted
• noahpinion on i-told-you-this-would-end-badly , yes-assimilation-is-good
• the conversable economist on how-federal-spending-is-distributed-to-the-elderly-working-age-and-children
• Margaret Donovan and Rachel VanLanigham on war-crimes-rhetoric-power-plants-iran
• Andrew Prokop on trump-taco-iran-ceasefire
• Home and Away on special-edition-on-iran-civilization
• Rachel VanLandingham on trump-iran-war-crime-threat-ceasefire
• Rodrigo Praino on a-whole-civilisation-will-die-tonight-trumps-genocide-threat-against-iran-was-another-new-low-for-america
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-nato
• Molly Omstead on jd-vance-hungary-viktor-orban-christians
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• public notice on trump-stooges

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on auden-on-iceland
• Amr Algarhi and Adeola Oyebowele on how-brexit-reduced-the-city-of-londons-financial-clout-new-research
• ZsuZsanna Vegh on hungary-election-orban-rule-power
• Lisa Martin on europe-holds-its-breath-ahead-hungary-s-election
• Chris Dillow on in-it-for-themselves

Asia

• the conversation on how-will-the-iran-war-change-the-middle-east-we-asked-5-experts
• Joshua Keating on trump-threat-war-crimes-electricity-bridges
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-crimes-bomb
• Donald Rothwell on how-might-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-reopened-here-are-3-scenarios
• David Graham on trump-iran-civilization-threat
• Amin Saikal on the-us-israel-ceasefire-with-iran-presses-pause-on-a-costly-war-but-can-peace-last
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• the conversable economist on north-koreas-economy-how-to-study-a-data-black-hole
• Taufiq Rahim on the peace  Thanks Tyler
• Shanthie D'Souza on india-s-clean-energy-goals-set-challenges-bring-opportunities
• Jade Guan on same-old-formula-bigger-stakes-beijing-taiwan-s-opposition
• Anton Ponomarenko on mutual-benefits-ukraine-south-korea-partnership
• Courtney Fung and Andrea Ghiselli on iran-crisis-puts-china-s-un-diplomacy-test
• Joshua Keating on iran-nuclear-missiles
• Simon Schuster on china-taiwan-trump-iran-war
• Mark Nevitt on strait-hormuz-tolls-crisis

Wonk

• Mark the Graph on updated-energy-benchmarks
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon
• Tim Harford on what-if-ai-just-makes-us-work-harder
• noahpinion on salarymen-specialists-and-small-businesses , all-ai-all-the-time
• Konstantine Panegyres on despairing-at-the-state-of-the-world-the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-knew-the-feeling
• eminent americans on the-failure-to-be-interesting Thanks Nick
• David Bessis on thinking-fast-slow-and-super-slow Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on crosspost-cosma-shalizi-aware-of-internet-traditions , stochastic-lobsters-token-tsunamis , a-plea-to-chad-orzel , contemporary-governance-and-contemporary-prosperity-and-past-settler-colonialism-and-its-ilk
• Sitara Noor on ten-years-after-nuclear-security-summits-what-now
• Alex Tabarrok on ai-unemployment-and-work

General

• Andrew Barron on bumblebees-can-perceive-rhythm-despite-their-brains-being-the-size-of-a-sesame-seed
• anecdotal value on for-the-love-of-god-learn-to-paragraph Thanks Nick
• Peter Edwell on meet-diocletian-the-roman-emperor-who-retired-to-grow-cabbages

Climate

• real climate on spencers-shenanigans-part-i
• skeptical science on published-research-experiment-paper , fact-brief-windland , new_research
• ocean acidification on the-impact-of-climate-change-on-lobster-production-a-systematic-synthesis-of-literature

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• campus-newspapers-and-what-remains-of-journalism
  
• how-do-political-organizations-and-politically-minded-rich-people-translate-money-into-media-influence
  
• my-uninformed-and-completely-speculative-theory-about-jeff-bezos-and-the-washington-post
• survey-statistics-improving-with-structure
  
• an-application-for-training-deep-learning-models-in-your-browser
  
• statschat on kokako-goneburger

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-drama-no-spoilers
• Andrew Gelman on updike-in-tehran

Vox Wonk

• content-moderators-dilemma-how-removing-toxic-speech-distorts-online-discourse 
  
• how-emerging-markets-borrow-new-evidence-sovereign-bond-issuance 
  
• greening-border-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-incidence-eu-member-states-and
  
• knowledge-jobs-help-firms-influence-demand
  
• gig-jobs-and-crime-evidence-food-delivery-platforms-france
  
• how-far-apple-falls-evidence-social-mobility-across-oecd-countries
  
• why-firms-responses-corporate-taxes-differ-across-countries
  
• differences-ai-adoption-europe-and-us-explanations-and-implications-productivity
  

Use the 25th amendment use it now.

 Trump is unquestionably in cognitive decline. This is not unexpected. He is 80 excessively overweight and his father had dementia. He believes his own lies are the truth. He believes stories he makes up that cannot be true like his story about his uncle.

He threatened Iran with geoocide. He has constantly threatened war crimes which is a war crime in itself.

Trump threatened to put Iran back to the stone age.As Tom Nicholls says this surely meant using nukes!

His erratic behaviour makes him very unsuitable to be President. The war against Iran surely proves he has no idea of what he is doing. That someone as incompetent as Hesgeth is hid secretary of defence makes it worse.

Just replace with Vance and do it now!