Monday, 31 October 2016

Politics as farce

Two great examples of politics descending into farce.

Firstly in Australia we have proposed legislation windy rhetoric that current refugees at Mannus and Nauru will NEVER be allowed in Australia. They are worried about them coming to Australia via a third country like New Zealand or Canada.

Let me get this right. A refugee settles in New Zealand or Canad has a good future but then decides he might migrate or even travel to Australia. This thinking is so stupid it could come from Steve Kates.
These people would like to live in a first world country so they will not be persecuted like they were in their home country. They are allowed to live in New Zealand or Canada but no they simply want to live in Australia. WHY? Housing affordability in much worse in Australia for example. Then of course can you imagine what the 'people smugglers' would be saying now. Hey get on a boat and wait maybe ten years maybe more and you can live in Australia. Wonderfully attractive eh!
I should add this is clearly a sop to One Nation to get votes through the Senate, Hanson has said Australia should have NO refugees!

Secondly in the United States we have the FBI ignoring the very protocols it is supposed to  work by by issuing a statement saying they are looking at e-mails at a computer of a former congressman.They do not even know what is in the e-mails.
Of all the explanations i have heard I think Carl Bernstein of 'Watergate' fame has it best. James Comey is simply covering his 'arse'. This would show he is in fact a bureaucrat not a FBI director.

Both the above examples is why people are so peeved with politics at present.

Thursday, 27 October 2016

Around the Traps 28/10/16

it is time for Around the Traps again

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 26 October 2016

Australia's state of the Climate

The Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have combined to produce another State of the Climate for Australia again.

A very interesting read.

  • More extreme weather is expected
  • CO₂ concentrations at Cape Grim passed through 400 parts per million for the first time in May 2016, and global concentrations are now at their highest levels in the past two million years.
  • There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a lengthening of the fire season in most fire-prone regions since the 1970s.
  • In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.
  • Australia’s oceans have also warmed, with sea surface temperature increases closely matching those experienced on land. This warming affects both the marine environment and Australia’s terrestrial climate, due to the large influence of surrounding oceans on our weather systems. Sea levels have risen around Australia, which has the potential to amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges.
  • warming in the global oceans now extends to at least 2,000 metres below the surface. 
  •  studies of record heat experienced during Spring in 2013 and 2014 have shown that the observed high temperatures received an extra contribution from background global warming.
It is a really good read.

Tuesday, 25 October 2016

Pauline Hanson

Way back in 1996 Pauline Hanson warned us that Australia was being overrun by Asians. She was wrong, badly wrong.

Now she is back she is saying Australia is being overrun by Muslims. Again she is wrong badly wrong. We are more likely being overrun by one nation voters than Muslims  ( There are more one nation voters than Muslims in Australia).

As Peter Lewis has shown most people have no idea of how many Muslims are immigrating to Australia. There is no excuse for Hanson to peddle such nonsense unless she is deliberately lying to garner political support. We can say her initial foray into politics was based on ignorance and prejudice.

There is no excuse this time.Moreover what idiot would attempt to put all Muslims in the same bucket. Does she think ISIL doesn't kill Shia Muslims.
Has she ever wondered why terrorism comes essentially from one sect of Sunni Islam?

I suspect Hanson research is done by Steve Kates!?

Monday, 24 October 2016

The Solicitor General resigns

For the first time in over 100 years the Solicitor General has resigned.
This was always going to occur after George Brandis the Attorney General issued a directive that ALL people who wished to be briefed by the Solicitor General must have his agreement.

We need to understand a few things.
Justin Gleeson who resigned has an eminent reputation in legal circles. George Brandis does not.
George Brandis is known for being a pompous git who is not known for his intellectual insights. He is also known for being an accident prone politician.
Indeed in recent times he has clearly misled both Parliament and possibly his cabinet colleagues on legal advice he clearly implied came from the Solicitor General when it did not.

Justin Gleeson clearly knew he could no longer work with George Brandis. Under most conventions Brandis would have resigned by now.

Whilst Brandis is still Attorney General the government will not get candidates of a high calibre to be Solicitor General that has happened in the past.
See Gabrielle Appleby

All this conforms this government is slowly but surely sinking into a mire all of its own making. It is as though tony Abbott was still in charge!

Thursday, 20 October 2016

Around the Traps 21/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again, Junior Rep cricket season on Sunday so the next five weeks will be tough to update

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 19 October 2016

Monday, 17 October 2016

The Nominal GDP should increase

We have for some time been in a time of continuing terms of trade.
This lead to nominal GDP falling and continuing to be weak.
This lead to people feeling negative about the economy as well as having adverse impact on the budget because of the revenue implications.This originally started with the last ALP government!
now the worm has turned and most people are expecting the terms of trade to increase. If commodity prices are maintained at present levels nominal GDP could increase by between 2-3%.
This will lift living standards and  confidence.

Peter Martin has got most of it right as per usual. A caveat should be put in. When commodity prices rose after the GFC it had little consequences on revenue for the government and this perplexed Treasury as it continued to write about possible reasons why revenue had not risen as commodity prices rose.

Hopefully most people will learn the lesson that we live in the nominal economy not the real economy.

Thursday, 13 October 2016

Around the Traps 14/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Sorry about being late.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econmetrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 12 October 2016

Baird's Backflips.

Oh how times do change.
Mr Baird the Premier of NSW the conviction politician now backflips each day.

Before we discuss this let us examine the polling fortunes of Mr Baird and his government. to do this we naturally go to Kevin Bonham.

What interests me is the complete lack of any evidence that the Greyhound decision was costing them any votes.  The National party in NSW clearly understand polling as well as the ALP members did when they replaced Kevin Rudd! Yes some shock jocks disliked it .So what

The NSW government has/ is about to backflip on greyhounds, shark netting, the lock outs laws. I am at a loss why the policy of council mergers has not been mentioned. It was by far the most controversial and based on very 'thin' evidence. They had no 'mandate' for the policy. moreover why do State government determine whether  local Governments are doing their job. Would the State government like the Federal government to come in and overturn what the voters wanted in a State election.

It seems the Present Government does not seem to understand a government needs to stand fopr something. With so many back flips what does Baird stand for now. He has gained Turnbullitis.

Tuesday, 11 October 2016

World Cup qualifier

Let us not mince our words. Australia were pretty poor last night. We were lucky to gain a draw..

Yes in the first half we were sluggish and lethargic in the first half BUT we were so slow when we had possession. There is no point in keeping possession if you are not trying to gain an advantage by it either in an offensive or defensive manner and so make an attacking raid on the opposition.
Too often last night we merely passed the ball back without any idea of what we were going to do.

What was worse we gave the ball away very easily at times when there was no pressure on. The Japanese goal came from a poor pass from the back by Sainsbury ( who is usually quite good at passing from the back.

This shocked me I have never seen any Australian side pass so poorly before.

I am simply going to say Australia had an off night but we still got a point.

I would not try 442 formation again as each time it hasn't worked and I do not think we have the players to use it properly. the midfield as a point has no clue of how to react.

Ryan McGowan looked out of his depth. He lacks pace as a fullback and was frequently caught out of position.

I also think we need to start with either Leckie or Kruse

Monday, 10 October 2016

Al Qaeda and ISIL

Both Al Qaeda and ISIL come from the same place in terms of sunni extremism.

However there is a huge difference in the two organisations.
Even in its diversified form you had to show you were good enough to be in Al Qaeda. Any plans had to be approved but were usually quite professional.

However most attacks undertaken by 'ISIL' are undertaken by lone wolves and we only learn AFTER the event they supported ISIL. In other words ISIL had no input into the attacks but were happy to take the 'kudos' from the attack.

Thus it can be seen attacks these days are much harder to prevent as there is little communication going on. sometimes the lone wolf could be on the radar sometimes they are not.

George Bush has a lot to answer for!

Sunday, 9 October 2016

The Sydney Derby

I went with my two sons to the Sydney derby on Saturday night.
We were part of the 62,000.
We sat high up in the stand and had a fabulous view.

It was a great occasion and a great atmosphere.
It was a shame the FFA did not market the game by saying it should be larger than the Manchester derby. That would have been a stunning marketing  boost for the game both here and overseas.

The game was disappointing for a Wanderers fan. We should have been up 2-0 at half time. We missed another easy shot in the second half. A true reflection of the game would have been a 2-0  win for Sydney FC.

The Wanders have a ponderous central backs.They had a centre back as a full back.He lacked pace.
Hopefully Poppa can change this.

Finally all Sydney derbies for the Wanderers should be at Homebush.
I shall be at the next one at Homebush.

The Referee had a very good game but neither linesman did.

Stephen Stills

Here is Stephen Stills doing Crossroads live.

It was sensational when I first heard this on his live album. It is just as good today.

Thursday, 6 October 2016

Around the Traps 7/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( book reviews + quirky)
vox wonk