Sunday, 31 July 2022

Ross Gittins is on the money

 Ross Gittins writes a damned good column today.

He makes the point inflation is because of supply factors so central banks traditionally fight inflation because of demand management.  

We have inflation problems because of energy prices surging courtesy of Russia invading Ukraine, food and vegetables prices rising because of the floods and supply constraints primarily because of what is occurring in china.  Clearly two of these factors are transitory.

Thursday, 28 July 2022

Around the Traps 29/6/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle

Vox Wonk


Wednesday, 27 July 2022

Tuesday, 26 July 2022

The sanctions on Russia are working

 Felix Salmon at Axios has a ripper of an article on how the sanctions are hurting Russia.

Well worth a read particularly the link

Update:

Menzie Chinn

Timothy Snyder ( well sort of)

Monday, 25 July 2022

Rookie Blue

 Between my youngest son getting covid (and food poisoning) and somehow me not getting it at all it has been a strange week.. 

Now I learn David Warner has died. A great actor. Why are british actors ( and series) so much better than yank ones?

I got onto rookie blue by a complete fluke. I saw it advertised on a Channel 7 program I had taped. Missy Peregram is one of the actresses in the series and I knew her from FBI. She is much younger, quite attractive and thinner in this series and her character allows her to do more than in FBI.

It is a canadian police series and it is a good one. The characters are okay with a caveat. I saw plenty of people I had seen on Murdoch Mysteries as well.

If you want to see it for FREE then register on 7plus. If you do not like the first episode then you won't like the series. There are only 5 seasons and most seasons are short except for the last.

The only caveat is the relationships of the characters. They switch partners so often you get dizzy. One female cavorts around with men and then 'discovers' she is a lesbian! Yes it was embarrassing and it must be a north american disease!


I recommend the series however. It is good fun.

Sunday, 24 July 2022

Thursday, 21 July 2022

Around the Traps 22/7/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

    Climate

    Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

    Econometrics

    • nuttin

    Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

    vox wonk


    Wednesday, 20 July 2022

    another view of Winston Churchill

    Gosh there were so many wonderful articles to highlight so I had to make a choice so why not an argument about Winston Churchill . ( Lloyd George I think to be easily the more interesting and better politician. ) I confess I am not a fan of Churchill. He was far too old after the war to be PM and fell asleep at cabinet meetings  and after advocating expansionary fiscal policy when he first 'came over' to the Liberals he was a gross disappointment as chancellor of the exchequer however even I found this article a bit over the top.

    Judge for yourself

    Tuesday, 19 July 2022

    Thursday, 14 July 2022

    Around the Traps 15/7/22

     It is time again for Around the Traps

    Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

    Northern America

    Europe

    Asia

    Wonk

    General

    Climate

    Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

    Econometrics

    Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

    Vox Wonk

    Wednesday, 13 July 2022

    What to do with Omicron?

     Stephen Duckett from the highly esteemed Grattan Institute writes on we-lost-the-plot-on-covid-messaging-now-governments-will-have-to-be-bold-to-get-us-back-on-track

    I for one thinks reinforcing social distancing of 1.5 metres together with the wearing of masks when not outside should be a boon to fighting omicron

    Tuesday, 12 July 2022

    Boris Johnson

     Boris Johnson is going.

    A few thoughts from:

    They are all critics but Ian Dunt was on the money about Boris to start with.

    Saturday, 9 July 2022

    Acca Dacca

     If you really love ACDC then it was only when Bon Scott was their singer.

    Their best song quite easily was its a long to the shop if you want a chiko roll.

    Here it is.



    Thursday, 7 July 2022

    Around the Traps 8/7/22

     It is time for Around the Traps.

    Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

    Northern America

    Europe

    Asia

    Wonk

    General

    Climate

    Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

    Econometrics

    Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

    • nuttin

    Vox Wonk


    Wednesday, 6 July 2022

    The ABC gets it right and wrong

     The times they are depressing so I am going to write about something not very important.

    In recent times the ABC have had to replace people in TV and radio ( in Sydney).

    Replacing Leigh Sales with Sarah Ferguson made sense. If anything she is a better interviewer than Sales and she takes no  prisoners.

    It is radio their changes make little sense. We eventually got rid of Fran Kelly on RN breakfast but replacing her with Patricia Karvelas was a poor choice. She was competent in the drive shift previously but in breakfast the world revolves around her. ( It is also why she is a poor Insiders hostess). She is not a great interviewer. Hamish McDonald was the perfect replacement. Like David Speers he lets his questions make all the noise that is needed. This is why politicians often get into trouble with him.

    On 702 they moved James Valentine form early afternoons where he was good to breakfast. you should never reduce your strengths. Valentine simply does not click with breakfast and his replacement Josh Szeps is simply boring. 2BL have has a number of good breakfast presenters so why change?


    Rant over

    Tuesday, 5 July 2022

    The RBA continues to raise interest rates

     Well the RBA raised official cash rates by 60 points yesterday. They are now at 1.35%. I would prefer them to be at 1.5%. This is because the neutral rate is somewhere between 1.5 and 2% and the sooner we get there the better.

    I think we can assume an official cash rate of 2.5% by the end of the year if we take Lowe at his word. That would mean monetary policy is mildly contractionary. IF the Government reduces the structural  budget deficit significantly ( there was no reduction in the last budget) then that might be it.

    However economics is not a science by educated guesswork. My GUESS is the RBA will take a breather at 2.5% and see what happens.  

    Hopefully by the end of next year inflation will be in the 2-3% band. Hopefully

    Monday, 4 July 2022

    Faith and assimilation

     A fascinating paper on faith-and-assimilation. It examines Italian migration to the USA  between 1890 and 1920 .

    It isn't long but it is very interesting