Around the Traps 28/2/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on two-class-school-system-great-way-to-entrench-low-productivity , paying-for-cowpat-sandwich-morrison-handed-albo , good-news-our-falling-productivity-is-too-bad-to-be-true
• croaking cassandra on goodbye-to-the-productivity-commission
• Rosie Shorter on who-cares-for-men-like-brian-houston-the-hillsong-leaders-rise-and-fall-is-a-gripping-story-but-how-was-it-allowed-to-happen
• Greg Jericho on australia-gas-export-tax-system-prrt-lng
• Brendan Walker-Munro and Sarah Kendall on explainer-what-is-sabotage-and-why-is-the-asio-chief-worried-about-it

OZ Climate

• massive-nsw-wind-and-battery-project-gets-federal-approval-to-replace-coal-drought-proof-farms
  
• aemc-seeks-to-loosen-monopoly-grip-on-grid-connection-for-solar-wind-and-batteries
  
• heatwave-smashes-grid-demand-records-as-batteries-come-out-to-play
  
• nsw-planning-gives-green-tick-to-another-wind-farm-in-new-england
  
• south-australia-fast-tracks-100-pct-renewables-target-to-2027
  
• arena-hails-grid-forming-inverters-as-another-big-battery-takes-shape
  
• the-network-of-conservative-think-tanks-out-to-kill-the-switch-to-renewables
  
• victoria-solar-farm-goes-from-standing-start-to-commissioning-in-just-12-months
  
• australias-biggest-battery-developer-plans-to-maintain-lead-despite-fall-in-storage-earnings-project-delay
• australia-to-seek-10-gw-of-wind-and-solar-this-year-in-biggest-ever-tenders
  
• latest-heatwave-smashes-energy-demand-records-in-nsw-but-rooftop-pv-eases-stress-on-grid
  
• fear-of-inflation-from-renewables-spend-unfounded-experts-say
  
• Timothy Weber and Andrew Blakkers on researchers-found-37-mine-sites-in-australia-that-could-be-converted-into-renewable-energy-storage-so-what-are-we-waiting-for
• John Quiggin on dutton-wants-a-mature-debate-about-nuclear-power-by-the-time-weve-had-one-new-plants-will-be-too-late-to-replace-coal
• Laura Poncet and Andrew King on what-we-know-about-last-years-top-10-wild-australian-climatic-events-from-fire-and-flood-combos-to-cyclone-driven-extreme-rain
• David Bowman on victorias-fire-alert-has-knocked-australians-out-of-complacency-under-climate-change-catastrophic-bushfires-can-strike-any-time
• Graham Readfearn on the-australian-newspoll-survey-small-modular-nuclear-reactors-smr-energy-grid-plan

Northern America

• Frank Figliuzzi on alexander-smirnov-fbi-russia-republicans-rcna
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-six-explanations-for-misperceptions-regarding-the-strong-economy
• Zack Beauchamp on south-carolina-gop-primary-results-2024-trump-haley-trumpism
• Jim Newell on south-carolina-primary-results-donald-trump-nikki-haley-analysis-takeaways
• noahopinion on this-is-not-a-good-way-to-fight-racism-in-USA
• Lester Munson on should-world-leaders-worry-about-another-trump-presidency
• Andrew Prokop on mitch-mcconnell-steps-down-ukraine-trump
• the conversable economist on pricing-at-wendys-a-surge-or-a-discount
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-sabotage-delay-dc-trial-judge-chutkan , donald-trump-supreme-court-trial-immunity-never-going-to-save-us
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-donald-trump-trial-january-6
• Norman Eisen and Jonathan Kolb on supreme-court-trump-immunity-timeline
• Umair Irfan on texas-wildfire-smokehouse-creek-panhandle-oklahoma
• Liz Zhou on trump-immigration-policies-2024
• slow boring on how-ira-results-are-stacking-up-to Thanks Brad
• Jan Meyer on the-scandal-of-clarence-thomass-new-clerk

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on the-uk-in-recession-expected-or-unexpected
• Alex Erskine on ukraine-war-pentagon-lessons-learned Thanks Tyler
• Mainly Macro on detoxifying-government-debt-part-3
• Stephen Hall on in-putins-russia-the-death-of-navalny-has-left-the-opposition-demoralised-but-not-defeated

Asia

• Lyanna Kayali on why-egypt-refuses-to-open-its-border-to-palestinians-forcibly-displaced-from-gaza
• Ben Scott on israel-hamas-globalised-conflict
• Robert Waldmann on clueless-in-gaza-ii
• noahopinion on japan-and-south-korea-need-nuclear-weapons
• Amrite Jash on numbers-china-s-nuclear-inventory-continues-grow
• Gabriela Bernal on can-south-korea-become-global-pivotal-state
• Ellen Ioannes on why-palestinian-authority-government-dissolved
• Henry Storey on could-myanmar-become-beijing-s-quagmire
• Shane Bauer on israel-west-bank-settlers-attacks-palestinians
• Martin Indyk on reports-two-state-solution-dead-are-greatly-exaggerated

Wonk

• institutional economics on australia-not-the-canary-in-the-coalmine
• Tim Harford on the-secret-to-finding-the-best-idea-ever-first-think-about-the-absolute-worst
• stumbling and mumbling on on-unequal-sympathy
• Jeffrey McGhee and  Richard Rowe on antarctic-diplomacy-critical-role-inspection-mechanisms
• noahopinion on new-technologies-new-totalitarians
• John Quiggin on back-to-the-office-a-solution-in-search-of-a-problem
• Erin Hurley on when-war-planning-politics-collide
• the conversable economist on the-oddness-of-february
• Tyler Cowen on this-kind-of-macro-theory-is-underrated
• Dan Davies on why-and-when-what-works-wont-part Thanks Brad

General

• Liz Zhou on moon-landing-nasa-odysseus-intuitive-machines-artemis-mars
• Hayley O'Neil on i-want-to-eat-healthily-so-why-do-i-crave-sugar-salt-and-carbs
• Themiya Nannayakarra on what-ended-the-dark-ages-in-the-early-universe-new-webb-data-just-brought-us-closer-to-solving-the-mystery

Climate

• essays concerning on greening-our-energy-how-soon
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-greenland
• open mind on optimism-of-the-will
• Benji Jones on atlantic-ocean-warming-climate-change-hurricanes-coral-reefs-bleaching

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• why-we-say-that-honesty-and-transparency-are-not-enough
  
• the-new-york-young-republican-club
  
• science-as-verified-trust
  
• not-once-in-the-twentieth-century-has-a-single-politician-actor-athlete-or-surgeon-emerged-as-a-first-rate-novelist-despite-the-dismayingly-huge-breadth-of-experience-each-profession-affor
• when-steve-bannon-meets-the-center-for-open-science-bad-science-and-bad-reporting-combine-to-yield-another-ovulation-voting-disaster
  
• on-the-border-between-credulity-and-postmodernism-the-case-of-the-ufos-as-space-aliens-media-insiders
  
• free-online-book-by-bruno-nicenboim-daniel-schad-and-shravan-vasishth-on-bayesian-inference-and-hierarchical-modeling-using-brms-and-stan
  
• blog-is-adapted-to-laptops-or-desktops-not-to-smartphones-or-pads
  
• a-suggestion-on-how-to-improve-the-broader-impacts-statement-requirement-for-ai-ml-papers
  
• exclusive-embattled-dean-accused-of-plagiarism-in-nsf-report-yup-its-the-torment-executioners
  
• leap-day-special
  
• barnard-college-update-respect-empathy-kindness-and-censorship
  
• minor-league-stats-predict-major-league-performance-sarah-palin-and-some-differences-between-baseball-and-politics
  
• Patrick Vu on do standard error corrections exacerbate publication bias Thanks Tyler
• Kaiser Fung on p-esteem-bosom-peril-flag-to-clamor-and-anti-tech-tech , know-your-data-34-think-before-you-scan

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on how-life-works

vox wonk

• yield-curve-momentum-implications-theory-and-practice
  
• wealth-generations
  
• what-would-you-do-if-you-found-mountain-gold-and-silver-exorbitant-privilege-then-and
  
• why-wto-moratorium-digital-tariffs-should-be-extended
  
• monetary-policy-strategy-and-natural-rate
  
• recent-trends-central-bank-independence
  
• why-reduction-european-workers-hours-after-pandemic-here-stay
  
• canary-coal-mine-bank-liquidity-shortages-and-local-economic-activity
  
• effect-european-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-asia-and-pacific
  
• relationship-stickiness-international-trade
  
• quantifying-link-between-educational-policies-and-macroeconomic-productivity
  
• fiscal-deteriorations-around-elections-emerging-market-and-developing-economies
  

Name Him

 The Head of ASIO asserted last night a former politician was essentially in the employ of a foreign nation and tried to get a family member of a PM to join him ( I assume its him.)

Name him. Every former politician is besmirched until this occurs. Every Australian deserves to know. either pollical party deserves to know. This person cannot remain anonymous.

Taylor Swift and Morrison

 Can someone please tell me why Taylor Swift is popular.

She is not attractive, her songs are banal, she writes songs about breakups she has had with her umpteeen boyfriends ( Fleetwood Mac did that years ago as poorly as her).

There is no comparison with Joni Mitchell for example. That woman had talent , a lot of it.

Scott Morrison eventually resigned. It took a lot of time for him to find a job outside of politics. given his skillset no surprises there. Before  he went to Cronulla to be the local member he was a rugby loving man from the Eastern  Suburbs. Consistency was never his forte. Neither was his understanding of Christianity. If he was alive at the time he would have denied entry to Jesu's family to Egypt when they were refugees!

Sport

 Football

I forgot some time ago to comment on the socceroos performance at the Asian Cup. They played three poor teams and struggled. This is because we have little creativity in the midfield. Unil this can change it will be always the case.

Against south korea we were much better as we did not dominate and could counter attack. We were up 1-0. It should have been 3-0. A poor tackle led to a penalty and then a superb free kick allowed south korea to win the match.

I do not know why Arnold selelcted some players as clearly they will not be at the next world cup. I would also argue they did not deserve their place.

It is up to Arnie to change the team sso we can play with a decent performance at the next world cup.

Cricket

I have been watching the England V India series. I never expected bazball to succeed in India and it hasn't. The fact England has pushed India all the way with a very inexperienced spinning lineup is a credit to Stokes. However when they have lost tests it was because of their batting. Apart from Crawley there has been no consistency.

Surely ball tracking is at an end. Balls that spin suddenly on ball tracking do not spin. Balls on the rise when they hit Crawley's  kneeroll (the same height as the bails) somehow hit the bails!

Book Review The Palestine Laboratory

 This book which I got for Christmas by Anthony Lowenstein is very disappointing. It has a lot of information but there is no order to the book. You go here you go there.

It reminds me of a book by Jonah Goldberg on Nazi Germany. It could have been a good book but it wasn't. We had to wait for Robert Gellately to write the book it could have been. hopefully this will occur in this instance

Israeli firms which a very close to government make both weapons and surveillance which appear to be world class. They are tested in the laboratory of Gaza. They thus sell very well.

The information gained is interesting but possibly the best thing about the book is telling why the jews hate people in Gaza with a passion (that people in Gaza hate the jews).

I don't recommend you buy the book but if it is in the library it could be worth a read.

Around the Traps 21/2/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Brendan Coates on labors-stage-3-changes-arent-genuine-tax-reform-heres-what-would-be
• Sam Roggeveen on right-lessons-australia-s-future-warships
• Ross Gittins on lest-we-forget-unknown-public-servant , why-fixing-negative-gearing-would-be-a-positive-for-our-kida
• Peter Franklin on asbestos-in-mulch-heres-the-risk-if-youve-been-exposed
• Jason Dutton on fire-is-a-chemical-reaction-heres-why-australia-is-supremely-suited-to-it
• Peter Layton on the-government-has-unveiled-its-navy-of-the-future-will-it-solve-our-current-problems-or-just-create-new-ones
• Brendan Coates and Joey Maloney on australia-rental-crisis-prices-labor-policy-cost-of-living-rent-assistance
• Greg Jericho on australia-wages-data-inflation-rba-statistics-rising-interest-rates
• Simon McKenzie on australia-wants-navy-boats-with-lots-of-weapons-but-no-crew-will-they-run-afoul-of-international-law
• Robin Smit on australian-passenger-vehicle-emission-rates-are-50-higher-than-the-rest-of-the-world-and-its-getting-worse
• Peter Roberts on brad-banducci-checks-out-from-woolworths-signalling-a-business-out-of-touch-with-its-customers
• Raymond Evans on friday-essay-neither-a-monster-or-a-saint-sir-samuel-griffith-queenslands-violent-frontier-and-the-rigours-of-truth-telling
• Lauren Kelly on the-secret-sauce-of-coles-and-woolworths-profits-high-tech-surveillance-and-control
• Mick Ryan on two-years-war-ukraine-lessons-australia

OZ Climate

• sauce-for-the-goose-if-i-owned-a-coal-fired-power-station-id-announce-its-closure-straight-away
  
• aemo-says-wind-farm-responded-as-designed-in-victoria-storms-as-conservatives-pile-into-renewables
  
• four-reasons-rooftop-solar-will-grow-to-dominate-australias-electricity-market
  
• rio-signs-australias-biggest-wind-energy-deal-to-help-power-giant-smelter-and-refineries
  
• bowen-unveils-new-offshore-wind-zone-with-room-for-up-to-20gw-of-turbines
  
• can-australias-biggest-manufacturing-assets-be-saved-by-biggest-wind-and-solar-farms
  
• obvious-solution-nsw-urged-to-unlock-demand-side-potential-ahead-of-eraring-closure
  
• Bruce Mountain on victorias-power-outage-could-have-been-far-worse-can-we-harden-the-grid-against-extreme-weather
• Stephen Kenway et al on emissions-from-households-water-use-are-on-a-par-with-aviation-the-big-cuts-and-savings-they-can-make-are-being-neglected

Northern America

• Emma Shortis on donald-trump-faces-half-a-billion-dollars-of-debt-and-several-court-cases-but-that-may-not-stop-him-from-becoming-president-again
• Abdallah Fayad on trump-financial-new-york-trouble-fraud-e-jean-carroll-civil-suit-damages-debt
• the conversable economist on us-consumers-goods-shrink-services-rise , the-pickle-poetry-antitrust-case , three-snapshots-of-where-us-population-is-headed
• Pinelopi Goldberg on us-economy-strong-so-what-explains-bidens-low-approval
• the big picture on cpi-shelter-measures-6-12-month-lag
• Arin Dube on how-a-tight-labor-market-helped-narrow-the-racial-divide
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-garland-cargill-bump-stocks-machine-guns-automatic , supreme-court-george-w-bush-woke-coalition-tj-fairfax-affirmative-action-race-alito , supreme-court-alabama-ivf-roe-wade-dobbs-abortion-child-embryo
• Hayes Brown on joe-biden-hunter-investigation-alexander-smirnov-fbi-rcna
• Norman Eisen and Joshua Kolb on aileen-cannon-trump-classified-disqualification
• Mark Stern on ketanji-brown-jackson-supreme-court-public-defender-win
• Druv Khullar on how-joe-biden-could-address-the-age-issue
• new deal democrat on perceptions-of-inflation-vs-wage-growth-why-the-divergence

Europe

• Regina Smyth on navalny-dies-in-prison-but-his-blueprint-for-anti-putin-activism-will-live-on
• Robert Horvath on alexei-navalny-had-a-vision-of-a-democratic-russia-that-terrified-vladimir-putin-to-the-core
• Mathew Sussex on putin-unrivalled , why-2024-could-be-a-grim-year-for-ukraine-with-momentous-implications-for-the-world
• Jon Richardson on unmarked-graves-violent-repression-and-cultural-erasure-the-devastating-human-toll-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine
• institutional economics on the-russian-economy-under-sanctions
• Mainly Macro on detoxifying-government-debt-part-2
• Anne Applebaum on navalny-death-russia-prison
• stumbling and mumbling on labour-office-vs-opposition
• Joshua Keating on avdiivka-ukraine-russia-war-artillery

Asia

• Arkprabho Hazra on curbing-foreign-voices-continues-india-s-election-looms
• Richard Heydarian on japan-shadow-china
• Khang Vu on open-business-north-korea-welcomes-back-visitors
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-hamas-gaza-war-strategy-netanyahu-strategy-morality
• Claire Young on china-has-fifth-station-antarctica
• Dereck Tonkin on in-defence-of-aung-san-suu-kyi
• Buu Nguyen on can-vietnam-cambodia-build-lasting-peace
• noahopinion on japan-isnt-quite-back-but-it-has-a-fighting-chance

Wonk

• Cassandra Steer on there-really-nuclear-weapon-space
• Tim Harford on are-economists-selfish-not-according-to-monopoly
• noahopinion on were-entering-a-golden-age-of-engineering
• Menzie Chinn on the-dollars-role-as-international-currency
• Mohan Yellishetty on whats-behind-the-collapse-in-the-price-of-nickel-and-how-can-the-industry-survive
• Henry Farrell on platforms polarisation and democracy

General

• Matt Williams on out-of-the-rabbit-hole-new-research-shows-people-can-change-their-minds-about-conspiracy-theories
• Christian Wolff on the-brightest-object-in-the-universe-is-a-black-hole-that-eats-a-star-a-day
• Laura Marchese and Katherine Livingstone on we-looked-at-700-plant-based-foods-to-see-how-healthy-they-really-are-heres-what-we-found

Climate

• open mind on trashed , accelerations
• met office on a-precautionary-approach-required-to-avoid-large-scale-collapse-of-the-amazon-forest
• ocean acidification on multi-month-forecasts-of-marine-heatwaves-and-ocean-acidification-extremes

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-lakatos-soccer-training
  
• success-has-many-fathers-but-failure-is-an-orphan
  
• lefty-driesell-and-bobby-knight
  
• a-gathering-of-the-literary-critics-louis-menand-and-thomas-mallon-meet-jeet-heer
  
• stabbers-gonna-stab-fraud-edition
  
• when-do-we-expect-conformal-prediction-sets-to-be-helpful
  
• hey-a-new-to-me-text-message-scam-involving-a-barfing-dog
  
• scientific-publishers-busily-thwarting-science-again
  
• michael-lewis
  
• statschat on say-the-magic-word

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-supply-side-prime-minister
  
• markets won't save humanity
• Brad De Long on on-michael-manns-on-wars
• Freakometrics on history of insurance
• noahopinion on book-review-power-and-progress

Vox Wonk

• carbon-leakage-additional-argument-international-cooperation-climate-policies
  
• evaluation-protected-area-policies-eu
  
• central-bank-digital-currency-and-operational-framework-monetary-policy
  
• managers-say-working-home-here-stay
  
• digital-euro-after-investigation-phase-demystifying-fears-about-bank
  
• why-we-need-green-land-value-tax-and-how-design-it
  
• determinants-and-impact-cross-border-patents-evidence-new-dataset
  
• impact-global-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-all-cause-mortality
  
• value-wto-commitments-along-global-supply-chain
  
• political-trenches-war-can-create-both-political-solidarity-and-extreme-polarisation
  
• inflation-differentials-euro-area-time-high-energy-prices
  

The Putin branch of the Republican party

 Liz Cheney over the weekend talked about the Putin branch of the Republican party.

This manifests itself in various ways.

• Since Trump like him and Ukraine di not provide 'evidence' to get Biden they like Putin
• Putin is a 'strong man' read authoritarian and they do like authoritarian types think Tucker Carlson
• They cannot get themselves to criticise Putin over the obvious murder of Navalny
• They get used by the Kremlin over an obvious lie to believe Biden took bribes in Ukraine. Think about it they could not even do the basics to find out Hunter Biden was not in Ukraine at the time. Have these clowns ever heard of forensic accounting?

Ronald Reagan must be squirming in his grave. He would be horrified just how successful Putin has been at turning the Republican party from seeing Russia at is is to being a fan of it.

Just let Assange go

 The US government is still after Julian Assange. It is a disgrace. Under any definition he is a journalist so they are are prosecuting because he is a journalist. Holy Putin Batman!

At his trial in the UK the USA could not pinpoint anyone who had lost their life because of wikileaks. He is clearly being prosecuted because of the embarrassment of the leaked documents. Holy Putin again Batman!

Just let him go!

The ironic thing it was always the rape allegations that looked more convincing and these have been dropped.

Aussie Politics

 Two things have become paramount this week.

Asylum Seekers

A boast containing some 40 people got to a northern part of Western Australia. The coalition said this would encourage people smugglers and an armada of boats would come here. Hang on how can people smugglers get any encouragement when the government whisked everyone off to Nauru?  Boats did arrive in Western Australia under the previous government and no am,arda was forthcoming. We also found out the Opposition cannot count. money for border Force has increased not decreased!

Emission Standards

The Australian government has announced new emission standards for automobiles. Previously like Russia we had none! It was stated this would massively increase the price of several models including utes. Hand on If we are replicating the EU and the USA then surely Utes in both jurisdictions would be much dearer. Whoopsy they are cheaper.

Moreover if you are producing more vehicles at the same standard then costs would fall not increase!

International events

 Russia

The Opposition Leader mysteriously dies at 47  one day after appearing in robust health. Funny how people opposing Putin mysteriously die. We should be grateful to Navalny. He di show everyone in the world just how much Putin stole from his countrymen. On Navalny see HERE and HERE

Ukraine

Russia gains territory as the US does not give more aid to the country. ( NATO does give more than the US.) The Republicans are a disgrace in essentially helping Putin. Ukraine needs more and better weapons.

Biden has been far to timid in helping Ukraine. do you remember him vetoing Poland giving Ukraine some MIGs?

Gaza

Israel continues on killing innocent Palestinians in the hope of killing Hamas personnel. It is an evil policy. It is plainly based on retribution where they believe Palestinians support Hamas. If only they read their Hebrew bible they would know how evil it is.

It is all very depressing.

Around the Traps 14/2/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on the-rbas-new-board-meeting-format
• Anika Stobart on if-we-want-more-australian-students-to-learn-to-read-we-need-regular-testing-in-the-early-primary-years
• Stephane Bouchoucha on vaccination-testing-clean-air-covid-hasnt-gone-away-heres-where-australia-needs-to-do-better
• Ross Gittins on lets-stop-using-interest-rates-to-throttle-people-with-mortgages
• Dron Parashar on australia-s-nuclear-energy-debate-doesn-t-have-be-partisan
• Peter Martin on what-would-a-vehicle-efficiency-standard-for-new-cars-cost-or-save-australian-drivers
• Ross Gittins on want-better-productivity-start-by-getting-our-kids-to-read
• John Quiggin on for-corporations-greed-is-good-so-how-can-australia-really-tackle-price-gouging
• Greg Jericho on the-awful-truth-at-the-heart-of-australian-housing-policy
• James Blackwell on the-government-is-well-behind-on-closing-the-gap-this-is-why-we-needed-a-voice-to-parliament
• Paul Strangio on a-blood-sport-feigning-as-government-what-the-abcs-nemesis-taught-us-about-a-decade-of-coalition-rule
• Hugh Breakey on doxing-or-in-the-public-interest-free-speech-cancelling-and-the-ethics-of-the-jewish-creatives-whatsapp-group-leak
• David Walker on figuring-out-the-strange-new-rules-of-resource-constraint

OZ Climate

• John Quiggin on labors-fuel-efficiency-standards-may-settle-the-ute-dispute-but-there-are-still-hazards-on-the-road
• Roger Dargaville on a-major-blackout-left-500-000-victorians-without-power-but-it-shows-our-energy-system-is-resilient
• Graham Readfearn on victorias-blackout-wasnt-the-fault-of-renewables-but-a-sign-of-a-system-working-as-it-should-temperature-check
• Gabrielle Kuiper on consumer-owned-energy-assets-could-provide-19-billion-economic-boost-2040
• bushfire-survivors-bring-home-renewable-energy-message
  
• south-australia-enjoyed-82-pct-wind-and-solar-for-entire-december-quarter-so-it-can-be-done
  
• electricity-networks-lack-accountability-on-rooftop-solar-integration
  
• giant-four-hour-battery-lands-biggestdebt-financing-for-an-australia-big-battery
  
• price-the-damage-garnaut-and-sims-reboot-calls-for-carbon-fee-for-big-polluters
  
• grid-drama-as-multiple-coal-units-and-lines-trip-in-midst-of-heatwave
  
• agl-and-aemo-search-for-answers-on-loy-yang-outage-but-woke-energy-not-to-blame
  
• massive-victoria-blackout-underlines-need-to-accelerate-transition-to-firmed-renewables
  
• wind-and-solar-records-tumbled-as-storms-ripped-through-victorias-grid
  

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on by-request-public-and-private-sector-jobs-under-various-presidents, cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-federal-funds-rate-fomc-projections-policy-rules-and-futures-markets
• Dennis Aftergut and Frederick Baron on special-counsel-robert-hur-biden-hit-job
• macromania on does-high-interest-policy-constitute-fiscal-stimulus
• the conversable economist on three-long-term-shifts-in-the-us-budget-picture
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-election-theft-jack-smith-immunity-stay-dc-circuit
• David Frum on republicans-character-ukraine-russia-trump
• new deal democrat on january-2024-consumer-inflation-still-a-tug-of-war-between-gas-and-housing
• Dahlia Lithwick on biden-age-controversy-vs-trump
• Roge Karma on consumer-sentiment-economy-inflation
• Sean Wilentz on a-historic-abdication-trump-supreme-court
• Felicia Kornbluh on abortion-rights-as-equal-rights-pennsylvania
• Eric Lach on migrant-crisis-fear-mongering-wasnt-enough-to-hold-george-santoss-old-seat
• Jeet Heer on biden-age-democrat-problem
• Andrew Prokop on trump-trials-fani-willis-alvin-bragg-hearings

Europe

• noahopinion on the-ukraine-war-is-ultimately-about-Poland ,russia-is-not-actually-a-very-nice-pleasant-place-to-live
• Menzie Chinn on is-germany-in-a-recession-and-if-so-would-we-have-predicted-it
• Selwyn Parker on russia-s-shadow-tanker-fleet-runs-trouble
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-comment-nato-biggest-problem
• Mainly Macro on detoxifying-government-debt-part-1-debt-it-is-also-an-asset
• Stefan Wolff and Tetanya Malyarenko on ukraine-war-kyiv-needs-a-fundamental-rethink-of-its-strategy-not-just-a-reshuffle-of-military-leadership
• Zack Beauchamp on ukraine-war-russia-us-foreign-aid-trump-congress
• Ian Hill on putin-believes-time-russia-s-side-sadly-he-has-point

Asia

• Ian Parmeter on israel-gaza-war-why-did-the-ceasefire-negotiations-collapse-and-can-they-be-revived
• Tim Lindsey on cute-grandpa-or-authoritarian-in-waiting-who-is-prabowo-subianto-the-favourite-to-win-indonesias-presidential-election
• Lydia Khalil on gaza-domestic-politics-regional-war
• Jared Mckinney on what-constrains-restrains-china-taiwan
• Ayesha Jalai on pakistans-post-election-crisis-how-anti-army-vote-may-deliver-an-unstable-government-that-falls-into-the-militarys-hands
• Sarah Phillips on america-is-the-mother-of-terrorism-why-the-houthis-new-slogan-is-important-for-understanding-the-middle-east
• Nicole Narea on israel-rafah-gaza-strikes-hostages-ground-invasion
• John West on how-fix-japan
• Tim Lindsey on prabowo-subianto-is-poised-to-succeed-in-lifelong-quest-to-become-indonesias-president-this-is-why-its-so-worrying

Wonk

• Brad De Long on paul-schmelzing-is-coming-to-berkeley
• Tim Harford on the-planets-got-99-problems-but-exponential-growth-isnt-one
• noahopinion on 2024-could-be-the-pivotal-year-for-cold war2
• Roland Raja and AhmedAlbayrek on global-poverty-still-massive-problem-no-matter-how-you-count-it
• the conversable economist on pay-transparency-whats-good-to-know , provision-of-care-a-challenge-for-economics

General

• Nial Wheate et al on why-its-a-bad-idea-to-mix-alcohol-with-some-medications

Climate

• David Appell on breaking-michael-mann-wins-defamation
• open mind on pre-industrial-sclerosponges
• noahopinion on a-bunch-of-handy-charts-about-climate-change
• Benji Jones on polar-bears-climate-change-shrinking-sea-ice
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-arctic-sea-ice
• Moyhu on giss-january-global-temperature-down-from-december
• Mitchell Lyons and Stuart Phinn on the-worlds-coral-reefs-are-bigger-than-we-thought-but-it-took-satellites-snorkels-and-machine-learning-to-see-them
• real climate on new-study-suggests-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc-is-on-tipping-course

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• clinical-trials-that-are-designed-to-fail
  
• torment-executioners-in-reno-nevada
  
• i-love-this-paper-but-its-barely-been-noticed
  
• those-annoying-people-are-stupid-narratives-in-journalism
  
• uncertainty-in-games-how-to-get-that-balance-so-that-theres-a-motivation-to-play-well-but-you-can-still-have-a-chance-to-come-back-from-behind
  
• Freakometrics on discrimination by proxy

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book readings)

• a-bit-less-random-reading
  
• be-happy-think-about-the-nash-equilibrium
  
• Joel Eissenburg on review-of-beyond-the-wall-a-history-of-east-germany-by-katja-hoyer

Vox Wonk

• sleeping-our-way-being-productive
  
• out-pocket-payments-nursing-home-residents-balancing-financial-protection-incentives
  
• two-tier-system-reserve-requirements-fight-inflation-more-fairly-and-effectively
  
• give-recovery-chance-containing-runs-solvent-banks
  
• pervasive-influence-political-composition-circuit-court-decisions
  
• economics-and-implications-compliance-minimum-wages
  
• monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation-challenges-and-lessons-future
  
• pandemic-consumption
  
• double-faced-demand-bank-reserves-and-its-implications
  

The Republicans keep on winning

 What we call by-elections the yanks call special elections. There have been quite a few of them on a state level and yesterday our time George Santos's ols district flipped to the Democrats. It went from a 8% win to a 8% loss.

the democrats also won a state seat in Pennsylvania.

There has been a clear pattern in special elections.It is a large swing to the Democrats.

Abortion is usually a major issue although it wasn't in New York (because no-one thinks it is threatened.)

Major thinking has the big issue was immigration and the republicans in the house rejecting a bi-partisan bill from the Senate ( which was very 'republican' in its nature.

The republicans and trump just keep on winning. Trump does get out his base to vote and but he also gets out people who want to vote against him.

These special elections and not the polls at present which are notoriously unreliable this far out from the election is the better guide on where voters are headed.

Drama in Victoria

 Plenty of drama in Victoria with regard to electricity. One coal fired power station completely stopped as all their units broke downs when transmission lines were torn apart by strong winds. See Graham Readfearn and THIS and even THIS

Funny how I heard this was not possible  tp coal fired power stations when this occurred in SA a while ago. Naturally they ignored this and the collapse of Loy Yang and blamed you guessed it renewables!

Ironically SA shows the way though.

I should add one more thing. Batteries are getting much larger. They have enough electricity stored in them for 4-6 sometimes 12 hours. As more come on board firming becomes easy to see.

What sound reason is there for an employer to constantly ring an employee when they are not working

 I simply do not get this.The internet really was not around when I was in my working prime. I NEVER got a phonecall outside of of workhours. ( Mon=[bile phones were not around either.)

The closest I ever got was when an employer asked me why I had not completed some work over the weekend. I simply answered I do not get paid on the weekend and I only work when I get paid and since I have a life the weekend is mine.

Just remember the legislation is targeting constant contact by the employer not irregular contact such as ringing up for shifts. 

to say this affects productivity is simply shite unless they are expecting their employees to do untold unpaid overtime!

Am I missing something here?

The special counsel's report into Biden's documents

 Robert Hur the counsel appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland  released his report last friday.

See HERE for opinion on whether any reference should have appeared about biden's memory.

I wondered why it would take over 400 pages to come to the conclusion Biden should not be charged. He agreed to be interviewed over two days ( October 8 and 9 Those days are important think about it). He willingly gave away any documents, He did not obstruct. He did not lie to investigators nor ask anyone else to. Like the Mike Pence case it was pretty easy to navigate and come to a conclusion.

Indeed the special counsel showed up how different it was to the Trump case. however the counsel could not help himself and then provided opinion on Biden's age and memory.

From where I stand it appears he could not find any evidence of wrong doing with regard to the documents so he then provided an opinion on biden's age and memory to help his side.

This does show a lack of judgement on Garlan's part. 

Around the Traps 7/2/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on bosses-are-finding-more-innovative-ways-to-handcuff-their-workers , are-supermarket-twins-too-keen-to-raise-their-prices
• croaking cassandra on the-conway-speech, once-were-a-trading-nation
• Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney on middle-australia-wins-from-the-governments-tax-plan-but-the-budget-is-the-biggest-loser
• Donald Rothwell on does-yang-hengjun-have-any-legal-hopes-left-after-receiving-a-suspended-death-sentence-in-china
• John Quiggin on labors-fuel-efficiency-standards-may-settle-the-ute-dispute-but-there-are-still-hazards-on-the-road
• Peter Martin on how-albanese-could-tweak-negative-gearing-to-save-money-and-build-more-new-homes
• Greg Jericho on rba-company-profits-inflation-interest-rates-rises-reserve-bank-australia
• Sanjoy Paul on supermarkets-airlines-and-power-companies-are-charging-exploitative-prices-despite-reaping-record-profits

OZ Climate

• Michael Grose and Andy Pitman on dangerous-climate-tipping-points-will-affect-australia-the-risks-are-real-and-cannot-be-ignored
• Tony Wood on wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why
• Andrew Gun and Christian Jacob on the-nationals-want-renewables-to-stay-in-the-cities-but-the-clean-energy-grid-doesnt-work-like-that
• anti-renewables-rally-inspires-counter-action-as-farmers-share-solar-and-wind-benefits-debunk-myths
  
• rally-betrays-anti-renewables-desperation-as-joyce-calls-on-army-to-go-home-and-recruit
  
• agls-great-hope-is-the-timely-exit-of-coal-too-bad-origin-has-dropped-the-ball-on-eraring
  
• diesel-plants-to-close-as-big-batteries-take-centre-stage
  
• how-solar-panels-could-act-as-a-bushfire-early-warning-system
  
• batteries-core-to-business-and-profitability-says-agl-as-flexibility-and-firming-pay-off
  

Northern America

• Unpopular Front on the-race-to-the-swift Thanks Brad
• employ america on it-wasnt-ai-how-fiscal-supports-supply-chain-healing-full-employment-explain-exceptional-productivity-growth-in-2023 Thanks Brad
• back of mind on irritating-arithmetic Thanks Brad
• econbrowser on under-what-administrations-does-the-debt-to-gdp-start-rising
• John Hart on should-donald-trump-be-disqualified-from-state-ballots-in-presidential-election-heres-how-the-us-supreme-court-might-rule
• noahopinion on biden-should-run-on-a-message-of-abundance , three-reasons-the-federal-reserve-will-cut-rates-soon, economic-losses-for-our-allies-are-not-wins-for-the-US
• Mark Stern on oregon-republicans-banned-ballot-trump
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-kill-voting-rights-act , supreme-court-trump-immunity-john-roberts
• the grumpy economist on understanding-trumpers
• Brad DeLong on fed-monetary-policy-remaining-restrictive-rather-than-neutral-despite-balanced-economy
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-anderson-disqualification-insurrection-fourteenth-amendment , supreme-court-trump-immunity-dc-circuit-united-states-jack-smith-tanya-chutkan
• Alec Winschel on supreme-court-trump-ballot-colorado-oral-arguments
• the conversable economist on some-facts-about-fires
• Liz Zhou on alejandro-mayorkas-impeachment-house-republicans
• Richard Hasen on donald-trump-supreme-court-bush-v-gore
• George Conway on dc-circuit-court-ruling-on-trump-immunity
• John Fea on evangelicals-christianity-james-dobson
• Amy Sorkin on what-scotus-has-to-decide-about-trump-and-disqualification
• Andrew Prokop on biden-special-counsel-report-memory

Europe

• Ellen Ioannes on french-farmers-protests-eu-brussels
• stumbling and mumbling on psychopath-politicians
• the conversable economist on the-euro-at-25
• Mainly Macro on one-rule-to-bring-them-all-and-in-the-darkness-bind-them

Asia

• Tony Walker on march-of-folly Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-right-way-to-be-bearish-on-china
• Syed Fazl.E.Haider on pakistan-elections-conspiracy-theories-plots-sidelines
• Toni Kirabira on uk-and-us-may-recognise-state-of-palestine-after-gaza-war-what-this-important-step-would-mean
• Emilie El Khoury on cutting-unrwas-funding-will-have-dire-humanitarian-consequences
• Andrew Thomas on explainer-what-is-the-two-state-solution-to-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict
• Basema Al-Alami on israel-isnt-complying-with-the-international-court-of-justice-ruling-what-happens-next
• Aluf Benn on israels-netanyahu-self-destruction

Wonk

• the  overshoot on argentina-and-the-limits-of-fiscal-space Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on for-resolutions-is-it-better-to-add-or-subtract
• John Quiggin on the-end-of-maritime-power
• Uneasy Money on t-c-koopmans-demolishes-the-phillips-curve-as-a-guide-to-policy
• noahopinion on tariffs-are-coming, do-poor-countries-need-a-new-development-strategy
• Anne Twomey on what-happens-if-king-charles-can-no-longer-perform-his-duties
• Joshua Keating on israel-gaza-middle-east-united-states-war-biden-china-ukraine-putin-russia-taiwan-defense-military
• the conversable economist on zoning-tradeoffs-of-localized-and-centralized-decision-making, winter-2024-journal-of-economic-perspectives-free-online
• Ved Shinde on non-state-actors-phantom-asymmetry

General

• Catherine Wood on should-twins-be-in-separate-classes-many-schools-say-yes-but-the-answer-is-not-so-simple

Climate

• Malcolm McCulloch on a-deeply-troubling-discovery-earth-may-have-already-passed-the-crucial-1-5-c-warming-limit
• Met office on our-changing-weather-patterns-a-tale-of-abrupt-transitions
• Moyhu on january-global-surface-templs-down-0165-from-december-but-still-hottest-on-record
• Reineke Weij et al on ice-ages-were-not-as-dry-as-we-thought-according-to-surprising-new-australian-cave-study
• Ian Sample on energy-based-on-power-of-stars-is-step-closer-after-nuclear-fusion-heat-record
• Umair Irfan on climate-change-cop28-paris-1-5-c-uae-2023-record-warm

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• a-question-about-lindleys-supra-bayesian-method-for-expert-probability-assessment
  
• dont-feed-the-trolls-and-the-troll-semi-bluff
  
• evaluating-samplers-with-reference-draws
  
• a-new-argument-estimating-the-probability-that-your-vote-will-be-decisive
  
• using-the-term-visualization-for-non-visual-representation-of-data
  
• cherry-blossoms-not-just-another-prediction-competition
  
• its-bezzle-time-the-dean-of-engineering-at-the-university-of-nevada-gets-paid-372127-a-year-and-wrote-a-paper-thats-so-bad-you-cant-believe-it-i-mean-really-you-have-to-take-a-look-at-t
  
• ive-been-mistaken-for-a-chatbot
  
• replicability-generalisability-applying-a-discount-factor-to-cost-effectiveness-estimates
  
• when-all-else-fails-add-a-code-comment
  
• bayesian-analysis-with-python
  
• listen-to-those-residuals
  
• freakometrics on tweedie regression or poisson gamma regressions

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-soul-of-silicon-valley
  
• random-reading
  
• David Bell on an-unlikely-life-napoleon-ridley-scott

Vox Wonk

• lifetime-memories-inflation-evidence-surveys-and-lab
  
• when-risk-models-hallucinate
  
• trade-liberalisation-can-weaken-unions-and-reduce-votes-left
  
• unresolved-business-enlarging-eu-towards-moldova-and-ukraine-and-perhaps-georgia
  
• euro-area-pandemic-inflation-tale-supply-chains-household-inflation-expectations-and
  
• how-large-scale-wars-do-or-dont-affect-labour-market-underrepresented-groups
  
• lives-versus-livelihoods-covid-19-trade-epidemiological-economic-perspective
  
• tide-has-turned-eu-firm-level-productivity-growth-has-started-suffer-chinese-import
  

Central banks should not use the Phillips curve

 Uneasy Money is a wonderful blog if you enjoy economics. No-one has more knowledge about the great depression and the gold standard.

He has recently put up this article.

t-c-koopmans-demolishes-the-phillips-curve-as-a-guide-to-policy

It is a must read.

Lots of lying about renewables

 There was a plethora of thing to write about but a 'rally' at Canberra has it.

Two articles on it.

• anti-renewables-rally-inspires-counter-action-as-farmers-share-solar-and-wind-benefits-debunk-myths
  
• rally-betrays-anti-renewables-desperation-as-joyce-calls-on-army-to-go-home-and-recruit

Just a few things. Farmers ddo not have to lease out their land. If they do not want it they merely have to say no. As it is renewables are complementary to farming. condensation from solar farms produces good grass for sheep for example.

The other and main thing is as Maggie Thatcher would say there is no alternative. It is renewables or bust. no-one wants to build coal fired power stations ( or nuclear ones at that.) companies only want to build gas fired power stations to use if renewables can't power up on the day otherwise they are simply too expensive.

The curious case of Yang Hengjun

 Donald Rothwell has a very useful article on Yang Hengjun.

The Chinese government have been very Trumpian in their handling of this matter. Lots of assertions but have provided no evidence. The Chinese law system is very opaque and this is being highly euphemistic.

I must admit to being totally confused why Hengjun would be in China. He was highly critical of the country and was very much to the fore in the hong kong democracy protests. Of course if he was a spy it would be even more absurd.

This is now tough for the Australian government. They have little to negotiate.

It is yet a further blackmark over China.