Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Trump is a disaster. We knew this before we know it now

We knew when Trump was a candidate he was a lying ignorant braggart. Take ISIS. It was quite clear he did not have a clue about them and did not know how to overcome them despite telling everyone he had a plan which would do it.

He is now President so we can figure what he will be like. The current immigration/refugee farce is typical about how he will be.

He acted on prejudice and without any evidence.( see yesterday's article) He took advice from two people who are complete looney tunes. He then didn't think through the consequences of what would occur.

We had the absurdity people who had greencards or were dual citizens were not allowed back into the USA. People in both categories who were in the USA could not leave the USA for work purposes.

Airports were in chaos as people did not know exactly how to interpret  Trump's policy.

No wonder markets have sold off.

We know now for sure Trump cannot admit to mistakes even HUGE ones. People who cannot admit to mistakes never learn from them.

His policy had the exact opposite intent of what he wanted. This policy was fantastic propaganda value for ISIS in terms of recruitment. If he had talked to experts he would have been told this.

He does not talk to experts , he talks to policy flakes who believe, like himself, in fake news.
He does not bother to find out the legality of any action he wants.
He will argue vigorously that black is white.

See Simon Wren-Lewis

Mark Thoma writes about some implication of this. Markets will be very wary of Trump picks for the Fed. Particularly if his team is more heavily critical of Yellen than the Reagan team was of Volker

We can now say with complete confidence Trump will be the disaster a lot of people thought.

Think about this. Trump does not start from a position of great political strength like Reagan for example did. He starts from a position of great political weakness than no-one on his team understands.

Be afraid, be very afraid. We had something similar in Australia, Tony Abbott became PM here despite all and sundry knowing he would be a disaster. He indeed was a disaster. It is a moot argument to argue whom is the worst PM  Bruce or Abbott.

Trump is a disaster and will continue to be a disaster!

I have been rightly upbraided for not commenting on the quality or lack of it of his advisors. The public service is a vastly different animal to the private sector.
Any President needs a cabinet of quality people. for the main Trump does not have this. His advisors outside of Cabinet  are either looney tunes or of poor intellectual background.  Where are the neo-liberals for example?

Monday, 30 January 2017

Fake News

A wonderful example of fake news yesterday and the premier place of fake news in Australia Catallaxy.
Only at Catallaxy could you get an article entitled more-fake-news. which is in fact fake news
The author was trying to say the chart originally done by people at the Cato institute and as yet no-one but no-one has disputed its accuracy.

It is about how many US citizens have been killed by people of certain countries in the USA.

Now I do not believe anyone is so stupid to think :
  • Lockerbie (The Bombing of Pan Am Flight 103)
  • Mogadishu (Black Hawk Down)
  • Maersk Alabama (Captain Philips)
  • Benghazi (13 Hours)
  • Iran Hostage Crisis (Argo)
are in the USA.

The author is thus deliberately lying. We have further evidence of this. M0nty points in the comments his main claim is patently wrong yet no  retraction from the author.

It is disgraceful.

Oh and this absolute mess for a policy has absolutely no evidence about it only bigotry.

Sunday, 29 January 2017

Andrew Bolt is illiterate and dangerous

Andrew Bolt who has been caught out many a time spreading fake news is at it again.He claims Trump has not 'banned' anyone from entering the USA.

Hmm..Dictionary defines banned thus :
a. To prohibit (an action) or forbid the use of (something), especially by official decree: banned smoking intheaters; banned pesticides in parks. See Synonyms at forbid.
b. To refuse to allow (someone) to do something, go somewhere, or be a participant; exclude: coach whowas banned from the sidelines for two games; a gambler who was banned from the club.
2. South African Under the former system of apartheid, to deprive (a person suspected of illegal activity) of the rightof free movement and association with others.
3. Archaic To curse.
1. An excommunication or condemnation by church officials.
2. prohibition imposed by law or official decree.
3. Censure, condemnation, or disapproval expressed especially by public opinion.
4. summons to arms in feudal times.

Now when Trump does not allow certain people to enter the USA are they banned or not?

Of course they are. Even Trump's Press secretary says they are banned.

Bolt is lying and of course goebelsisng to the highest degree.

It is entirely ironic that Bolt likes to accuse a lot of his critics of lying all the time yet that is what he does if he are to take him at his own word. A court found out his is lazy as all get up about finding out the facts.

In this instance he is denying that the ban affects muslims. Talk to Trump he thinks that is who it affects!!!

I should add ISIS would be proud Bolt is helping them out so well in their recruitment in Australia.

Impeach Trump impeach him now

Way back when Obama had to get special permission from Congress to receive the money that went with the absurd nobel prize he was given.

Fast forward to today. Trump simply treats congress with utter contempt on the same topic. He has made no action what so ever to overcome this . He has decided against a blind trust which most Presidents in the past have used.He clearly has no understanding of conflict of interest means

It is therefore Congresses constitutional duty to impeach Trump until he conforms with the US constitution.

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Around the Traps 27/1/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( book reviews + quirky)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

January 26 should NOT be Australia Day

Australia became a nation on January 1 not January 26 so why is Australia day on January 26?

Sydney became a town then. Celebrate Sydney becoming a town by all means but not Australia becoming a country!

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

The TPP is dead

The TPP is dead. Trump killed it by executive order. As a typical left winger he thinks free trade is bad for the economy. He simply is very ignorant on the topic

The Australian government takes a totally opposite view on trade although to be honest they appear to be as mercantilist in how they view trade deals as Trump. That is perhaps a bit harsh as I can't see any country wanting to negotiate a trade treaty with the USA as  Trump would only sign up if the USA is a big 'winner in terms of net exports.

If one reduces trade barriers then not only will exports increase but so will imports. In terms of jobs the net gain will be negligible but national income will increase sometimes substantially.

The TPP did not have a lot of benefits to it. The Productivity Commission found few and was quite wary of it.

Greg Jericho echoes my thoughts on the TPP.

I am a great believer in multilateral trade agreements. They bring benefits of lowering trade barriers. bilateral trade agreements merely encourage trade diversion not trade creation.
It is not good the trade negotiators on the TPP were so secretive and not transparent.

On the politics Turnbull did not come across very well. Shorten had his measure all the way. Ciobo I have mentioned before. He was caught out badly lying on Q&A about Mallah.  He wants Parliament to ratify an agreement that might have more nations to be part of it! He clearly does not understand how parliament works!

THIS is pertinent

Monday, 23 January 2017

The Tip of the Iceberg: The Implications of Climate Change on Financial Markets

A fascinating paper done by Bank of England staff on the implications for financial markets of climate change.

It is well worth a read.
Thanks to the Ever reading Mark Thoma for pointing it out for everyone

Sunday, 22 January 2017

There was no pause

One of the most boring things a climate denialist will say is that there was a pause in world temperatures. Not so.


Let us be clear. A person who believes in a pause is either completely deluded and this an imbecile or lying their head off in other words goebbelsing

Thursday, 19 January 2017

Around the Traps 20/1/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

2016 the hottest year ever

We know know 2016 was the hottest year ever.

16 of the 17 most hottest years have occurred since 2001!

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Ego trips to the grave

There is a really interesting article  called how-status-competition-killed-german-wwii-fighter-pilots.

The authors look at German fighter pilots in WW2 and their behaviour to how former colleagues got recognition.

As Mr Spock would have said fascinating

Monday, 16 January 2017

A humble suggestion to reform Politician's entitlements

In lieu of Sussan Ley resigning ( I'm told she added a s to her name for numerology reasons) the main item has been reform of their entitlements.

I have a humble suggestion. most of the allowances can be done away with.

Let me give a few examples.

When a politician comes to Canberra on sitting days they are entitlements to an allowance to being away from home. So let us say it is $200 a night. Thus this is why most politicians share accommodation. They get $200 a night but only pay say $50 a night. They are making money courtesy of the tax payer.
When they are on duty they get an allowance for staying somewhere in a hotel anywhere in Australia. Again let us say it is $200 a night. If they stay somewhere where it is cheaper than that they pocket the difference.

My humble suggestion is simply get the politician to send in the bill for what they paid and then the Department recompenses them. It occurs like this  in the private sector and it works.

Do it in the public sector!

Sunday, 15 January 2017

Sinclair Davidson caught out

When Donald Trump held a press conference what would you expect people to talk about?

Perhaps it was his colossal error on jobs?
Sinclair Davidson thought it was about CNN. 
Steve from Brisbane  was on the job exposing this fake news.

Even if Davidson missed this a person said this in comments.
"typically, Trump got it wrong. Like the JournL and virtually everyone rise CNN chose not to refer to the content of the document that is correctly described as unverified and salacious. The only media that published that material is buzzfeed.'

Has Davidson retracted his false implication? not on your nelly.

He is a disgrace!

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Around the Traps 13/1/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy,y,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

US Housing Crisis

There has been a load of nonsense in certain 'conservative 'groups trying to attempt to pin the blame on the housing crisis on the US government principally the CRA. This bit of false news is very easily shown to be false.
In recent times  MARK THOMA  and CALCULATED RISK have gone into this.
As usual it is incorrect. I have read papers on this topic from every regional Federal Reserve and at least two from THE Federal Reserve itself which go into quite a lot of detail in investigating this using very sophisticated statistical techniques.
This is a furphy that the 'right' will never let go. It was fake news before fake news. Post truth days are far earlier than most think.

Tuesday, 10 January 2017

Advice for Trump

Former Deputy governor of the RBA Stephen Grenville has some advice of Trump.

Menzie Chinn examines what occurred when the last two Presidents had policies like trump espouses.

Janet Yellen is going to have her work cut out for her me thinks!