Sunday, 30 January 2022

Free Trade and War

 My thanks to  Nick Gruen who kindly puts out some weekend reading tips every weekend.

This weekend he had Branko Milanovic's free-trade-and-war.

It is a wonderful paper and quite interesting and early on he highlights three links to the origins of WW1.

A few things if you are interested in the origins of WW1 then read Dreadnought

I have been reminded of the same decline in Foreign Affairs which occurred in this period by the current Chinese government.

Thursday, 27 January 2022

Around the Traps 28/1/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 26 January 2022

Dopesick

 I watched dopesick this week with my family. It is a mini-series on Disney. It is based on a book by Beth Macy

It is very depressing but a riveting series. It is brilliantly written and acted. all the main characters are superb. I simply could not wait to watch the next episode.

Highly highly recommended.

THIS is very good.

Monday, 24 January 2022

January 26 should NEVER be Australia day

 Australia became a nation on January 1 yet for some unfathomable reason some people want to celebrate this on January 26 when NSW became a colony of the United Kingdom.

For the sake of accuracy can people who wish to celebrate Australia as a nation do it on the right date.

Doing it on January 26 is simply embarrassing.


Busy tomorrow back on Thursday.

Thursday, 20 January 2022

Around the Traps 21/1/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 19 January 2022

Tuesday, 18 January 2022

okay I will post something on tennis

 I have attempted to simply give what happened down in Melbourne a miss. why did the government give out a visa in the first place is a great question.

HOWEVER Andrew Gelman gives us Kaiser Fung on some of the ramifications.

Fascinating as the late Mr Spock would say.

Monday, 17 January 2022

What have we learnt from the Ashes

 What lessons have we learned from the Ashes?

First of all we were lucky the poms batting was so bad. We have only two matchwinning bowlers Cummins and Hazelwood and one was injured. We can confidently say Starc has lost his ability to swing the ball and his pace rarely reached 145k. Starc rarely finishes any series well. Stamina?? If the poms has simply only played the cut and glance against him he would have taken few wickets.  Richardson and Boland were only competent bowlers at best allowed to flourish by bad batsmen.  Lyon rarely looked a matchwinner either.

Our batting was exposed by Wood's pace. All our 'great' batsmen were unnerved by his pace. Imagine if Archer or Stone were fit or they actually picked some fast bowlers who can bowl 150k.. The poms lack of any decent spinners meant  our batting looked better than it was. It still appears we have flat track bullies who either fai8l or have a lot of luck when the pitch assists bowlers.

We were assisted by inept english selection and strategy. did the poms pay no attention at all to India last summer?? It was also apparent Root is no captain. Why would you bowl Leach first after a break? 

Our big break was Greene becoming a useful fast medium bowler. Carey was also a break as a wikkie.

I tend to completely discount the Ashes and wait for the Pakistan  tour. 

We do have an aging team with no pace up front anymore. There is no pace replacement in the wings either.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the poms produced fast bouncy greentops for us in two years and only they had genuinely quick bowlers!!

Thursday, 13 January 2022

Around the Traps 14/1/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk


Wednesday, 12 January 2022

Nuclear energy's future is not bright

 Jim Green writes on this for renew economy.

I have always found nuclear advocates strange. It takes 15 years to build a nuclear reactor. It would then need a price on carbon of  $50-60 to compete with coal fired power. It cam never be competitive with renewables.

Tuesday, 11 January 2022

history lessons from the great crash

 Stephen Grenville ( former deputy governor of the RBA) writes an interesting article for the Lowy Institute on history-lessons-great-crash

Sunday, 9 January 2022

The Biden Boom

 noah smith at noahopinion ( get it?) has a very interesting article on the-biden-boom.


Whaddyathink?

Thursday, 6 January 2022

Around the Traps 7/1/22

 It is time for Around the Traps in this new year.

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 5 January 2022

Test Cricket

 Possibly the most enjoyable part of the pandemic is watching test cricket all over the world.

Here is my thinking.

India

Should be easily the most strongest team but is not. The major reason is that their much vaunted batting lineup is possibly over rated. Kohli for example has been poor for the last two years however they do have good young batsmen ready to take over from the veterans who appear to be past their best. Their bowling looks good more so if they discover a fast bowler. In the current series against South Africa they should be easily accounting for SA but are not.

New Zealand

They have a great team for home or England but lack bowlers when the pitch is flat. They in essence have no decent spinners. When their captain is injured they struggle. They just lost to Bangladesh which is a good thing for cricket but never should have occurred.

South Africa

They have a young side with a few experienced hands who are rarely consistent. Their fast medium bowlers are quite good and they have a potentially good allrounder. They do need a fast bowler and SA have never had a decent spinner in my lifetime.

West Indies

They are decimated by white cricket. All their talent goes in that direction and until someone can rectify this they will struggle in test cricket.

Pakistan

Pakistan always appears to have talented players but you always have the sneaking suspicion when they lose it is because they backed the other team. They do have one of the best batsman, some good fast bowlers and a good spinner and Wikkie. Perhaps the OZ tour to Pakistan will illuminate more on the team

Bangladesh

They recently best the Kiwis without their great allrounder. They certainly looked competent in all departments yet they lost easily to Pakistan at home. That is hard to reconcile


I might just add the commentary panels in SA are far superior to any other country

Tuesday, 4 January 2022

The fourth Test

 It appears only weather will save the poms!

Australia is highly over-rated. Starc cannot swing the ball and should not be a  problem for a test batsman. Lyon has been past his his best for a few seasons. ( I concur with the late Sid Barnes when he stated you could play an offspinner in Australia with a toothpick.) Richardson merely bowls fast medium outswingers and Boland simply bowls at military medium pace and does a bit with the ball. Only Cummins and Hazelwood are match winning bowlers yet we are up 3-0!

The poms techniques have been shown up. Stokes clearly needs match fitness. The bowlers have taken ages to bowl the right line and finally Root whilst a great batsman with the earth on his shoulders is a poor captain.

The poms should pick this team.

burns,
buttler,
Malan,
Root,
stokes ( c)
pope,
bairstow.
borthwick/livingstone My son says they are both in OZ at present
wood,
bess,
anderson,

Monday, 3 January 2022

do outlier polls tend to get it right

 A really interesting article entitled do-outlier-polls-tend-to-get-it-right written by someone  that Mark the Ballot has on his sidebar.

Sunday, 2 January 2022

what subs to buy

 Hugh White writes a great article on comparing/contrasting nuke subs with conventional ones.

Saturday, 1 January 2022

Linda Ronstadt

 The best version of her doing your no good with a great backing band.