Around the Traps 26/4/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Duckett on why-the-pathology-bulk-billing-campaign-is-more-about-driving-industry-profits-than-saving-you-money
• Mark the Ballot on various-bayesian-models-for-modelling-voting-intention , the-polls-are-getting-close
• Mathew Crocker on what-if-the-reserve-bank-itself-has-been-feeding-inflation-an-economist-explains
• Anne Twomey on two-people-want-to-share-the-job-of-mp-for-higgins-is-it-constitutional
• Marina Zhang on ensuring-future-made-australia-act-doesn-t-add-global-subsidy-arms-race
• Olli Hellman on from-gallipoli-to-gaza-remembering-the-anzacs-not-as-a-coming-of-age-tale-but-as-a-lesson-for-the-future
• David Hayward on the-nsw-treasurer-says-a-slashed-share-of-gst-will-cost-his-state-11-9-billion-but-where-did-he-get-this-figure
• Mick Ryan on warfare-changes-so-does-australian-strategy
• Ross Gittins on buildings-as-batteries-for-net-zero
• John Hawkins on inflation-is-slowly-falling-while-student-debt-is-climbing-6-graphs-that-explain-todays-cpi
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-rate-cpi-figures-hecs-debt-help-student-loan-debts
• Stephen Grenville on australia-s-comparative-advantage-climate-transition

OZ Climate

• ev-fast-charger-pioneer-tritium-calls-in-administrators-after-declaring-itself-to-be-insolvent
  
• australias-biggest-wind-and-solar-auction-set-for-may-with-focus-on-coal-heavy-nsw
  
• record-wind-and-solar-push-down-prices-across-grid-except-for-most-coal-dependent-state
  
• poles-and-wires-is-there-a-better-way-to-get-consumers-to-pay-for-using-the-grid
  
• nationals-threaten-to-tear-up-wind-and-solar-contracts-as-nuclear-misinformation-swings-polls
• Rohan Fisher on vastly-bigger-than-the-black-summer-84-million-hectares-of-northern-australia-burned-in-2023
• Jay Gordon on appliance-standards-delays-costing-australians-34bn-year

Northern America

• John Lennon on how-to-publish-a-magazine-in-a-maximum-security-prison Thanks Nick
• Tim Bakken and Karrin Anderson on how-trump-is-using-courtroom-machinations-to-his-political-advantage
• Molly Omstead on ukraine-russia-congress-johnson-republicans-marjorie-greene-putin-propaganda
• the conversable economist on the-imf-warns-about-us-budget-deficits, the-jones-act-consequences-of-a-destructive-industrial-policy
• Monoj Harjani on are-us-export-controls-making-china-s-chip-industry-more-innovative
• David Frum on trump-deflates
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity-january-6-president , supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity-jack-smith
• Umair Irfan on energy-efficiency-appliances-stove-washing-machine-climate
• Amanda Lewellyn on canada-populism-justin-trudeau-budget-plan
• Phillip Lacovara and Dennis Aftergut on supreme-court-trump-immunity-jan-6-trial
• Ellen Ioannes and Nicole Narea on columbia-student-protests-gaza-nyu-divest-faculty
• Adam Serwer on columbia-national-guard-tom-cotton
• Robert Reich on israel-gaza-campus-protests
• Antonia Hitchens on the-political-scene/the-gops-election-integrity-trap
• Menzie Chinn on almost-landed
• Jeet Heer on biden-policy-israel-impunity-iran
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-immunity-arguments-which-way-now

Europe

• Intigam Mamedov on russia-and-the-taliban-heres-why-putin-wants-to-get-closer-to-afghanistans-current-rulers
• Joseph Webster on kyrgyzstan-route-facilitating-russia-s-invasion-ukraine
• Timothy Snyder on the_west_needs_to_accept_that_regime_change_in_russia_will_look_odd_and_scary_but_we_cant_control_it
• Mainly Macro on the-bernanke-review-of-bank-of-england-forecasting

Asia

• James Horncastle on israel-hits-back-at-iran-how-domestic-politics-is-determining-israeli-actions
• Pria Chacko on with-democracy-under-threat-in-narendra-modis-india-how-free-and-fair-will-this-years-election-be
• Sanchita Bhattachayra on afghan-women-silent-victims-taliban-brutality
• Ellen Ioannes on israel-iran-conflict-middle-east-gaza-war-hamas
• Menzie Chinn on the-chinese-real-exchange-rate-down-15-since-2022m03 , chinese-gdp-in-q1
• Kunal Sen on how-indias-economy-has-fared-under-ten-years-of-narendra-modi
• Kashif Anwar on china-s-high-ambition-low-altitude-economy
• Tarik Solmaz on three-factors-hardening-china-s-stance-taiwan
• Omar al-Najjar on in-gazas-hospitals

Wonk

• Terry Eagleton on where-does-culture-come-from Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on a-tiktok-ban-wont-solve-social-medias-collective-trap
• noahopinion on how-latin-america-started-to-beat-inequality , palestine-is-the-end-of-the-line-for-the-new-left
• John Quiggin on expertise-and-naval-power
• Kim Herriot-Darragh on fonops-send-message-they-don-t-speak-themselves
• the conversable economist on three-options-for-taxing-wealth
• John Quiggin on the-war-to-end-war-still-going-on
• Alex Tabarrok on the-prisoners-dilemma-of-non-competes

General

• Meg Walker et al on cave-diving-for-fossils
• Magdelena Bunbury and Guido Gnecchi-Ruscone on ancient-nomads-youve-probably-never-heard-of-disappeared-from-europe-1-000-years-ago-now-dna-analysis-reveals-how-they-lived
• Julien Cooper on new-rock-art-discoveries-in-eastern-sudan-tell-a-tale-of-ancient-cattle-the-green-sahara-and-climate-catastrophe

Climate

• stoat on there-is-no-human-right-to-safe-or-stable-climate
• Dan Lowry on west-antarcticas-ice-sheet-was-smaller-thousands-of-years-ago-heres-why-this-matters-today
• Sharon Robinson et al on longer-lasting-ozone-holes-over-antarctica-expose-seal-pups-and-penguin-chicks-to-much-more-uv
• Umair Irfan on climate-change-peak-greenhouse-gas-emissions-action
• Benji Jones on coral-reefs-bleaching-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• analogy-between-a-model-checking-in-bayesian-statistics-and-b-the-self-correcting-nature-of-science
  
• now-heres-a-tour-de-force-for-ya
  
• decorative-statistics-and-historical-records
  
• what-is-your-superpower
  
• for-that-price-he-couldve-had-54-jamaican-beef-patties-or-1-216-of-a-conference-featuring-gray-davis-grover-norquist-and-a-rabbi
  
• gist-gibbs-self-tuning-for-hmc
  
• population-forecasting-for-small-areas-an-example-of-learning-through-a-social-network
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-36-the-what-and-the-why, a-ceo-says-they-will-spend-money-to-lose-money

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• uber-goes-to-washington
  

vox wonk

• reforming-innovation-policy-help-eu-escape-middle-technology-trap
  
• exposure-soap-operas-featuring-lgbtq-characters-has-negative-short-term-impact
  
• international-trade-brown-shares-and-economic-development
  
• price-and-output-responses-supply-disruptions-times-high-uncertainty
  
• natural-rate-interest-after-pandemic
  
• nurturing-childhood-curiosity-enhance-learning-randomised-pedagogical-intervention
  
• co-authorship-economics-aftermath-metoo
  
• using-spatial-integrated-assessment-models-understand-local-and-global-economic
  
• impact-exchange-rates-japans-machinery-exports-1990
  

The CPI means rate cuts could be some way off

 The ABS released the quarterly CPI yesterday.

It surprised me and just about everyone else on the upside.

The good news is rate rises have very sharply cut the prices on goods  and anything influenced by the tradable sector.

The bad news is prices in the services sector and non-tradable sector appears to be gaining strength again.

Hence the more competition you have anywhere the more inflations drops and vica versa.

The other thing we have to be wary of is the number released yesterday could be an outlier. It has occurred previously . Just ask Glenn Stevens he got two of them.

The RBA has to examine the monthly CPI and other price series in surveys. ( Just one thing Institutional economics said the budget gave the ABS enough money so the monthly CPI would be the same as the quarterly CPI just like almost every other Western country. This was obviously wrong unfortunately.) If that information shows inflation is dropping then they will cut. My guess is they will wait until the quarterly CPI shows this.

If this happens then rate cuts will not occur until late this year at the earliest.

Here is something from the Guardian on this.

Just how stupid are we Aussies

 That title got you!

When the referendum failed we found out most Australians voted no because they did not understand what was proposed. They did not even take the time to find out what the referendum, was about and then make an educated decision. They preferred ignorance and blamed others for the decision they made.

It seems this is again occurring with regards to energy. They believe renewables are the highest cost provider of electricity. The only problem with this is they are the exact opposite. How could people believe this. There has been plenty of evidence to show renewables are EASILY the lowest cost provider of electricity. see HERE

What is going on in Australia. There is no use blaming politicians for this. Australians have to accept responsibility for educating themselves which means more intelligent policies going forward.

Israel should put up or shut up

 remember how Israel claimed they had documentary evidence that some employees of UNRWA had participated in the October 7 slaughter?

Well it seems their claims should be taken with a huge grain of salt. It is bit like their claims of Hamas having their underground headquarters under the largest hospital in Gaza.

I never believe anything coming out of hamas as they lie all the time. Their claims have to be verified.

It seems this should equally be applied to Israel.

On a completely different area an ABC journalist is being told to leave India because of her reporting. India copying China

I do not like Sub stack

 Back in the old days People wrote blogs and you read the best of them but most importantly you did not pay for the  pleasure of reading them.

Then we had substack where people tried to commercialise on their success on writing blogs. The only problem was you had to pay for the pleasure of reading them.

If I might just add academics and journalists were the people who had a competitive advantage in writing blogs. They were writing on stories and concepts they kept up to date with because of their jobs, noah smith, Brad De Long and John Quiggin quickly come to mind as examples. The late Mark Colvin was a magnificent example on twitter.

The problem of substacks is twofold as I see it.

1. If you subscribe to any it must reduce the avenues you have read on certain subject. None of us have so much money we can subscribe to all these substacks.
2. If you commercialise your blog it must have high quality articles ALL the time. Sorry but this just does not happen. I do like noah smith for example but sometimes the articles are simply articles which are boring. This happens because sometimes there is little happening, sometimes your inventive juices are not working. You get the picture

Bah humbug I say to substacks. Can you imagine someone putting up a Dickey Betts guitar wonderland as I di yesrday. Nope.  Anyone could look it up on youtube and so it cannot be commercialised.

Bring back the old blogs

The Allman Brothers

 I was saddened to hear the death of Dickey Betts the guitarist for the Allman Brothers. He was not as good as Duane Allman but he was good enough.

Here he is on one of his songs rambling man

Around the Traps 19/4/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Naoise McDonagh on australia-is-playing-catch-up-with-the-future-made-in-australia-act-will-it-be-enough
• Terry Goldsworthy on as-australia-reels-from-the-bondi-attack-such-mass-murder-incidents-remain-rare
• Peter Martin on scrap-the-west-australian-gst-deal-set-to-cost-40-billion-leading-economists
• Kevin Bonham on every-child-wins-prize-federal-seats
• Brendan Clift on judge-finds-bruce-lehrmann-raped-brittany-higgins-and-dismisses-network-10-defamation-case-how-did-it-play-out
• John Quiggin on duttons-decaying-nuclear-energy-plans-have-the-briefest-half-life
• Adam Loch et al on water-theft-laws-and-penalties-in-the-murray-darling-basin-are-a-dogs-breakfast-heres-how-we-can-fix-them
• Dennis Muller on how-the-lehrmann-v-channel-10-defamation-case-shone-an-unflattering-light-on-commercial-news-gathering
• Sam Bennett and Hannah Orban on choice-and-control-the-ndis-was-designed-to-give-participants-choice-but-mandatory-registration-could-threaten-this
• Greg Barton on why-is-the-sydney-church-stabbing-an-act-of-terrorism-but-the-bondi-tragedy-isnt
• Greg Jericho on funding-australias-renewable-transition-isnt-picking-winners-its-securing-our-future
• Sarah Dehm and Anthea Vogl on the-high-court-is-hearing-another-high-stakes-immigration-case-can-people-be-forced-to-assist-in-their-own-deportation
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-made-australia-new-energy

OZ Climate

• Yuanyuan Huang on trillions-of-tonnes-of-carbon-locked-in-soil-has-been-left-out-of-environmental-models-and-its-on-the-move
• Joe Fontaine et al on the-big-dry-forests-and-shrublands-are-dying-in-parched-western-australia
• origin-snaps-up-australia-biggest-wind-project-and-big-battery-as-it-ramps-up-late-renewables-push
  
• Britta Schafflke et al on global-coral-bleaching-caused-by-global-warming-demands-a-global-response
• climate-authority-says-75-pct-cut-in-emissions-achievable-as-australia-mulls-2035-target
  
• unparalleledrooftop-solar-now-a-major-player-in-australias-grid-but-households-need-more-batteries
  
• renewables-drive-down-prices-in-first-quarter-but-heatwaves-and-outages-cause-spikes-in-coal-dominated-grids
  
• worst-week-for-wind-but-is-that-a-reason-to-panic-about-transition-to-renewables

Northern America

• Institutional Economics on disinflations-progress
• Shirin Ali on adeel-mangi-why-are-democrats-letting-islamophobia-sabotage-judicial-nomination
• new deal democrat on march-consumer-price-inflation-was-still-mainly-about-the-dynamics-of-shelter-and-gas-prices
• The liberal patriot on the-democrats-patriotism-problem Thanks Nick
• Mark Stern on stormy-daniels-prosecution-stronger-than-i-thought , january-6-donald-trump-prosecution-obstruction-supreme-court
• Mary Bock on trumps-new-york-felony-charges-are-going-to-trial-what-the-images-might-show-when-the-business-fraud-case-kicks-off
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mckesson-doe-first-amendment-protest-black-lives-matter , supreme-court-january-6-insurrection-riot-fischer-united-states , supreme-court-homeless-grants-pass-martin-crime-grants-pass-johnson
• the conversable economist on why-so-many-shareholders-of-us-firms-are-untaxed
• institutional economics on trump-versus-the-impossible-trinity
• David Frum on joe-biden-donald-trump-presidential-debate
• Eric Loch on donald-trumps-trial-of-the-century
• Amy Sorkin on the-supreme-court-asks-what-enron-has-to-do-with-january-6th-and-trump
• Menzie Chinn on different-measures-of-consumer-prices
• noahopinion on five-things-to-be-optimistic-about-america-today

Europe

• Mick Ryan on ukraine-war-how-check-russia-s-momentum
• Temmuz Bezmez on erdogan-s-election-blow-will-shape-turkiye-s-foreign-policy
• Nikola Mikovic on russia-conundrum-caucasus-beyond

Asia

• Unherd on iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-on-the-time-varying-impact-of-chinas-bilateral-political-relations-on-its-trading-partners-doux-commerce-or-trade-follows-the-flag
• Ran Porat on irans-unprecedented-attack-on-israel-was-a-strategic-miscalculation-can-all-out-war-now-be-averted
• Priya Chacko on with-democracy-under-threat-in-narendra-modis-india-how-free-and-fair-will-this-years-election-be
• Fred Kaplan on israel-iran-attack-war-missiles-drones-cyberattack
• Denny Roy on why-china-remains-unlikely-invade-taiwan
• Mixin Pei on an-interview-with-minxin-pei-about-the-sentinel-state-china-economy-surveillance-repression Thanks Brad
• Lydia Khalil on iran-israel-escalation-calculus
• Haleema Shah on israel-palestine-conflict-settler-colonialism-zionism-history-debate
• noahopinion on why-china-is-defeating-tesla

Wonk

• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-the-rise-and-fall-of-a-megalomaniac
• noahopinion on twilight-of-the-economists , why-so-many-of-us-were-wrong-about-missile-defence
• stumbling and mumbling on some-defunct-economist
• Mainly Macro on could-governments-finance-deficits-by-creating-money
• John Authers et al on rate-cuts-covid-inflation-central-banks Thanks Brad
• Flavio Macau on will-global-oil-supply-be-at-risk-if-iran-and-israel-pull-the-middle-east-into-war
• the conversable economist on interview-with-david-dunning-of-dunning-kruger-fame
• Tyler Cowen on the-ludwig-von-mises-comeback
• Uneasy Money on my-new-paper-on-hawtrey-is-available-on-ssrn

General

•  Alessandro Toffoli on rogue-waves-in-the-ocean-are-much-more-common-than-anyone-suspected-says-new-study
• Diana Kuchinke on why-the-kookaburras-iconic-laugh-is-at-risk-of-being-silenced
• Mathew Stewart et al on first-evidence-of-ancient-human-occupation-found-in-giant-lava-tube-cave-in-saudi-arabia
• Bryan Walsh on bluey-kids-children-television-show-the-sign-disney-australia-joe-brumm-parenthood

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-1998 , at-a-glance-is-the-science-settled , how-extreme-temperature-2023
• Nicholas Lubitz and David Schoeman on climate-change-is-causing-marine-coldwaves-too-killing-wildlife
• Moyhu on giss-march-global-temperature-down-from-february
• Graham Readfearn on great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-global-heating
• renew economy on technology-denial-columbia-law-school-debunks-33-biggest-myths-about-solar-wind-and-evs
• Met Office on antarctic-sea-ice-in-2023

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• evidence-desire-support
  
• intelligence-is-whatever-machines-cannot-yet-do
  
• evidence-desire-support
  
• simulation-to-understand-measurement-error-in-regression
  
• no-its-not-statistically-implausible-when-results-differ-between-studies-or-between-different-groups-within-a-study
  
• n43-a-statistically-significant-226-improvement-what-could-possibly-go-wrong
  
• do-research-articles-have-to-be-so-one-sided
  
• close-but-no-cigar-unit-tests-and-bias-in-mcmc
  
• infovis-infographics-and-data-visualization-my-thoughts-12-years-later
  
• the-data-are-on-a-1-5-scale-the-mean-is-4-61-and-the-standard-deviation-is-1-64-whats-so-wrong-about-that
  
• the conversable economist on statistics-is-literally-statecraft

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• language-in-the-always-on-world
  
• who-counts
  

Vox Wonk

• managing-transition-central-bank-digital-currency
  
• intergenerational-income-mobility-france-comparative-and-geographic-analysis
  
• leader-spouses-and-informal-influence-foreign-aid
  
• peer-effects-field-study-choices
  
• understanding-diversity-and-discrimination-dynamics-classroom
  
• us-firms-have-little-financial-incentive-comply-minimum-wage
  
• corporate-debt-and-financial-crises
  
• religious-people-cope-better-crisis-evidence-uk-pandemic-lockdown
  
• behavioural-responses-wealth-taxation-evidence-colombia
  
• ukraines-reconstruction-policy-options-building-effective-financial-architecture
  
• populist-dynamic-experimental-evidence-effects-countering-populism
  
• cascades-tax-policy-through-production-networks-evidence-japan
  
• silence-golden-how-public-criticism-central-banks-can-backfire-leaders
  
• positioning-global-value-chains-new-dataset-available-global-value-chain-analyses
  

Dunning Kruger

 Timothy Taylor of the Conversable Economist fame interviews David Dunning.

the Trump trial

 I had previously thought this current trial was a slam dunk misdemeanor but soso felony.

However like Mark Stern I have changed my mind.

Read Kristy Greenberg or Jonathan Turley for two different views.

It has highlighted the justice system in the USA is two tiered. Anyone else who has made the threats Trump has ( Sam Bankman Fried anyone ) would be in the slammer. He isn't and he continues to issue threats!

At least Trump can get some sleep these days.

I was right about Lehrman afterall

 If you have been living under a rock then read THIS.

I have not really read a lot about this case at all. I have to say after watching him on TV I thought I would never trust anything he said. That is what in essence the Judge said. Sky afterdark will be enraged the judge found their innocent victim not so innocent.

Israel/ Iran

 From my point of view this all started when Israel bombed the Iran embassy in Syria and killed two generals. The embassy is part of Iran territory thus it was an act of war unlike other things between the two nations. It does not matter if we do not like Iran we have to stick to the facts.

Iran then replied with over 300 missiles, drones etc directed at Israel with Iran knowing full well Israel would shoot most down.

If Israel is smart then there will be no reaction to this and each side can declare victory. However given people on both sides this may not occur. What worries me is politicians on both sides will want to do more because they are weak and need to be seen as decisive and strong.

None of this would have occurred if Trump had not unilaterally break the nuclear agreement. That agreement had seen Iran reduce their nuclear program significantly and the moderates win an election in a landslide because people could see greater economic growth with much reduced sanctions.

Trumps unquestionably poor actions here did a number of things.

1. It lead  Iran ramping up it nuclear program, THe exact opposite of what was happening before
2. It boosted the radicals and severely weakened the moderates in Iran.
3. This is because the radicals were proved correct in saying Iran could NEVER trust the USA. They were proved right.
4. Iran now is almost permanently led by radical people when the people clearly wanted peace and prosperity

Around the Traps 12/4/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on tougher-than-that
• Adrian Beaumont on liberals-will-have-difficulty-forming-government-after-final-tasmanian-results
• John Quiggin on big-business-in-australia-faces-less-competition-than-almost-anywhere-else-and-likes-it-that-way
• Thomas the think engine on land-use-eliminate-roundabouts
• Alexandru Nichifor and Scott Kominors on loyalty-programs-may-limit-competition-and-they-could-be-pushing-prices-up-for-everyone
• Peter Martin on how-about-this-time-we-try-just-try-to-report-on-budgets-and-tax-differently
• Kevin Bonham on tasmania-2024-is-this-hare-clarks-new-normal
• Greg Jericho on australia-interest-rate-cuts-rba-reserve-bank
• Mark Kenny on why-moving-to-the-right-could-be-wrong-for-dutton-and-the-coalition
• Andrew King et al on despite-what-you-might-hear-weather-prediction-is-getting-better-not-worse
• Peter Whiteford on half-a-million-more-australians-on-welfare-not-unless-you-double-count

OZ climate

• Kimberly Reid on why-is-australias-east-coast-copping-all-this-rain-right-now-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on flash-droughts-are-becoming-more-common-in-australia-whats-causing-them
• were-not-trying-to-compete-with-china-why-australias-solar-sunshot-is-not-a-flight-of-fancy
  
• labors-proposed-nature-positive-reforms-will-force-renewable-developers-to-change-their-thinking
  
• zen-plans-1gw-pumped-hydro-project-at-former-coal-pit-to-address-solar-duck
  
• alinta-boss-compares-nuclear-to-unicorns-in-the-garden-but-warns-of-cost-issues-in-race-to-net-zero
  
• nine-in-10-australians-support-renewable-energy-transition-nearly-half-want-it-to-go-faster
  
• coalition-nuclear-plan-would-force-consumers-to-wait-20-years-longer-for-30-higher-electricity-bills
  

Northern America

• Zack Beauchamp on trump-sneakers-bible-truth-social-grift-scam-conservatives-history
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on clarence-thomas-hires-crystal-clanton-supreme-court-clerk-luck , arizona-abortion-ban-trump-wins-2024-comstock-lan
• Fred Kaplan on joe-biden-cease-fire-significance-context-what-it-means
• noahopinion on the-us-would-be-insane-to-go-it-alone-on-trade-and-manufacturing , why-is-the-us-doing-so-much-deficit-spending , americans-are-still-not-worried-enough-the-risk-of-world-war
• newdeal democrat on march-jobs-report-almost-uniformly-positive-making-a-soft-landing-the-default-2024-scenario
• Raymond La Raja on beyond-biden-vs-trump-other-us-elections-matter
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-federal-funds-rate-fomc-projections-policy-rule-prescriptions-and-futures-market-probabilities-from-the-march-2024-meeting
• Eric Levitz on trump-abortion-policy-video-truth-social
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04
• Menzie Chinn on inflation-surprise
• Christian Paz on young-voters-trump-biden-polling
• John Cassidy on will-historic-job-growth-bring-an-end-to-the-vibecession
• Sassan Glasser on donald-trumps-amnesia-advantage
• Brad De Long on trying-to-puzzle-through-the-current-macro-situation
• Jeet Heer on trump-campaign-fundraiser-bribery
• Rachel Cohen on florida-arizona-abortion-rights-trump-2024
• Mary Harris on aileen-cannon-jack-smith-donald-trump-mar-a-lago-documents-case-delay-trial-chaos

Europe

• Frank Barry on european-economic-convergence-ireland-and-poland
• mainly macro on the-anatomy-and-reasons-for-uk-relative-decline
• Chris Bertram on east-german-history
• Barry Eichengreen on why-european-productivity-growth-lags-us Thanks Brad
• Eliot Cohen on kyiv-spring-ukraine-military-aid

Asia

• Sarah Zheng on china-economy-seeks-hope-in-tech-investment Thanks Brad
• Noriel Roubini on china-middle-income-trap-more-likely-with-state-capitalism Thanks Brad
• Syed Haider on pakistan-dangerous-reality-working-china-s-megaprojects
• Will Chase and Alison Snyder on gaza-infrastructure-land-damage-israel-six-months-war
• Ian Parmeter on facing-enormous-pressure-at-home-and-abroad-how-much-longer-can-israel-continue-its-war-in-gaza
• Ved Shinde on india-s-turbulent-history-newly-revealed
• Morton Pedersen on myanmar-julie-bishop-inspired-choice-un-special-envoy
• Dima Nazzal on rebuilding-gaza-was-seen-as-a-herculean-task-before-oct-7-six-months-of-bombing-has-led-to-crises-that-will-long-outlive-the-war
• Benjamin Sacks and Peter Dortman on what-are-china-s-long-term-antarctic-ambitions
• Minxin Pei on china-s-new-productive-forces-won-t-revive-the-economy Thanks Brad
• Di Guo and ChenggangXu on china-today-becominig-soviet-union-auguring-economic-failure Thanks Brad
• Natasha Karner on israel-accused-of-using-ai-to-target-thousands-in-gaza-as-killer-algorithms-outpace-international-law
• Khang Vu on north-korea-its-socialist-friends-southeast-asia

Wonk

• Institutional Economics on safe-assets-and-the-cycle
• eight by seven on the-news-on-definitions Thanks Brad
• Dymples Leong on don-t-play-it-ear-audio-deepfakes-year-global-elections
• Tim Harford on the-surprising-public-health-benefit-of-unemployment
• C Raina McIntyre et al on a-person-in-texas-caught-bird-flu-after-mixing-with-dairy-cattle-should-we-be-worried
• Ralf Stanhauser on daniel-kahneman-psychologist-who-shaped-economics-world
• John Blaxland on is-japan-joining-aukus-not-formally-its-cooperation-will-remain-limited-for-now
• Menzie Chinn on 120-years-of-recession-prediction-using-the-term-spread
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-corporate-bonds-in-the-long-run
• Vanessa Ogle on shippings-shadow-world
• the conversable economist on the-state-of-globalization-both-more-and-less-than-you-may-think
• Craig Mark on once-enemies-japan-and-us-strengthen-their-alliance-and-it-goes-beyond-aukus

General

• Tahereh Alinejadtabrezi et al on the-southern-ocean-has-the-cleanest-air-on-earth-we-have-just-discovered-why
• Marcus Lower et al on we-saw-one-of-the-most-powerful-magnets-in-the-universe-come-to-life-and-our-theories-cant-quite-explain-it
• Francios Guillard on what-is-a-sinkhole-a-geotechnical-engineer-explains

Climate

• David Appell on countries-that-have-uncoupled-co2-and-economic-growth
• essays concerning on greening-our-energy-how-soon , the-fallacy-of-perfection
• Robin McKie on simply-mind-boggling-world-record-temperature-jump-in-antarctic-raises-fears-of-catastrophe
• Craig Stevens on antarcticas-sea-ice-hit-another-low-this-year-understanding-how-ocean-warming-is-driving-the-loss-is-key
• Edward Doddridge et al on the-limits-of-ice-what-a-19th-century-expedition-trapped-in-sea-ice-for-a-year-tells-us-about-antarcticas-future
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-down-011-from-february
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-pdo-is-not-causing-global-warming
• stoat on retread-lowell-ponte-cooling
• this is not cool on insurance-is-the-canary-in-the-climate-coal-mine

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• ai-as-shorthand-for-turning-off-our-brains
  
• what-is-the-prevalence-of-bad-social-science
  
• evilicious-3-face-the-music
  
• hey-some-good-news-for-a-change-child-psychology-and-bayes
  
• people-have-needed-rituals-to-turn-data-into-truth-for-many-years-why-would-we-be-surprised-if-many-people-now-need-procedural-reforms-to-work
  
• heres-something-you-should-do-when-beginning-a-project-and-in-the-middle-of-a-project-and-in-the-end-of-the-project-clearly-specify-your-goals-and-also-specify-whats-not-in-your-goals-set
  
• acq
• delayed-retraction-sampling
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• unaccountable
  
• money-money-money-2
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• green-innovation-and-deployment-fuelling-economies-reducing-emissions
  
• political-economy-adapting-climate-change
  
• long-term-effects-equal-sharing-evidence-inheritance-rules-land
  
• end-gold-standard-and-beginning-recovery-great-depression
  
• inequality-bands-seventy-five-years-measuring-income-inequality-latin-america
  
• hometown-conflict-and-refugees-integration-efforts
  
• austerity-and-elections
  
• new-dataset-housing-affordability
  
• buzz-bust-how-fake-news-shapes-business-cycle
  
• impact-humanitarian-sanctions-evidence-us-sanctions-chinese-firms
  
• reshaping-housing-market-enduring-effects-pandemic
  
• carbon-reduction-and-social-justice-challenge-economic-policy
  

Transgender Issues

 Steve from Brisbane has an article on this.

I am with JK Rowling on this. If the person cannot menstruate than they are not a woman.

In my own football territory we have our own transgender problem. A team known as the flying bats now has a large number of transgender players. They easily won a pre-season competition.

A few things from an ex-referee.

Females rarely go in for shoulder to shoulder tackling. They are therefore not used to someone coming from a few metres away to hit a player with a shoulder to shoulder tackle. Nor are they used to a player bringing a player down with a sliding tackle.

Females do not want to play with transgender players because of this physicality. In a ironic twist it is the females who are being penalised for 'physical' tackles because

1. They believe they have to be physical to compete
2. Since they do not know how to be physical when they try to be they do things which are against the laws of the game.

The Transgender problem is therefore causing enormous angst the competition. I think it is likely a number of teams wil lnot play against the team next season by nominating in another division.

It is a lose lose situation.

A comparison of the DUNE serries of books

 The world is depressing so here is something different.

The DUNE series is thus

1. Dune
2. Dune Messiah
3. Children of Dune
4. God Emperor of Dune
5. Heretics of Dune
6. Chapterhouse Dune

1-3 has Paul Atreides in as either the main character or nearby. 4 has his son Leto as the main character.

5 and 6 has no Atreides as any character and are laamost stand alone books.

THIS is a brief article of the whole series

IMHO this is the best reads

1. Heretics of Dune. The sisterhood, Miles Teg and another duncan Idaho ghola and the honored maters are coming. a Great read
2. Chapterhouse Dune. The finale and somewhat disappointing but until then a great story.
3. Dune The original that starts the series still a mindbender
4. Dune Messiah  Frank got a bit sloppy in trying to bring in more breadth to the original but it is short 
5. Children of Dune. Far too long
6. God Emperor of Dune   Just boring

Ukraine

 I am very much saddened by what is occurring in the USA where even one of the key Republicans is saying some of his own people are echoing Russia key talking points in this war.

I have few things to talk about.

1) give Ukraine enough resources to BEAT Russia not just not to be defeated. Biden has not allowed Ukraine to launch missiles into russia. huh. Russia does it every day of the week but Ukraine is not allowed to.

2) Australia should give Ukraine our F-A18 jets. They do not require the airfields that F-16s do and help Ukraine gain air advantage which is vitally needed.

Think about missiles hitting russian electricity plants when Russia does it to Ukraine. Think about Ukraine having air superiority and then using its new tanks to advance over russian positions. Think about Ukraine taking back territory russia illegally took so long ago.

We should not be thinking about it Ukraine should be doing it!

Deficits do need to be curtailed at the right time

 Croaking Cassandra had a good article on not-very-bothered-by-deficits. It was on Around the Traps. It looks at the New Zealand situation. They are in a much more dire situation than us in Australia. The Labour government spent way too much money and a lot of it was ongoing not one-off as should have been the case.

The structural deficit here is around 2% of GDP.  

It seems to me the current government is a bit like the government led by Kevin rudd. They know we have a structural deficit problem but simply do not believe they can successfully prosecute the argument.

Now is the time to address the problem. Yes the government has the problem of trying to do this when the RBA is attempting to slow the economy but at least attempt to start to address the problem.

Around the Traps 5/4/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on the-digital-revolution-may-be-returning-us-to-hitech-serfdom , when-funding-healthcare-dont-forget-the-caring-bit
• Allan Fells on its-time-to-give-australian-courts-the-power-to-break-up-big-firms-that-behave-badly
• croaking cassandra on not-very-bothered-by-deficits
• Greg Jericho on australia-budget-2024-2025-jim-chalmers-surplus
• Rick Sarre on a-judgement-in-bruce-lehrmanns-defamation-trial-against-network-10-has-been-delayed-whats-going-on
• Ian Permeter on zomi-frankcom-is-a-tragic-victim-in-the-stalemated-israel-hamas-war-but-dont-expect-australias-approach-to-change-much
• Isaac Gross on as-the-covid-cash-glut-comes-to-an-end-the-reserve-bank-is-changing-the-way-it-sets-and-maintains-interest-rates
• Laurence Luu on whooping-cough-is-surging-in-australia-why-and-how-can-we-protect-ourselves
• Susanna Patton on what-should-australia-be-doing-about-south-china-sea

OZ Climate

• big-talk-little-action-energy-future-out-west-is-at-crossroads-between-gas-and-renewables
  
• state-owned-chinese-company-buys-australian-energy-retailer-to-boost-local-renewable-plans
  
• marginal-loss-factor-rules-undermining-urgent-renewables-growth-investors-warn
  
• australias-most-successful-renewable-and-storage-developer-seeks-buyer-for-biggest-asset-sale
  
• were-not-trying-to-compete-with-china-why-australias-solar-sunshot-is-not-a-flight-of-fancy
  
• three-steps-forward-two-steps-back-as-australia-inches-towards-renewables-targets
  
• australias-fossil-fuel-dominated-grid-to-have-hefty-shadow-carbon-price-starting-at-66-a-tonne
  
• peter-duttons-nuclear-push-is-a-suicide-note-playing-mostly-to-right-wing-echo-chambers
  
• with-luck-chinas-stunning-cuts-in-the-cost-of-wind-and-solar-will-feed-through-to-australia
  
• generation-starts-at-what-will-be-south-australias-biggest-wind-farm
  
• smart-meters-for-all-new-reforms-could-put-2030-target-in-reach
  
• Georgina Falster et al on a-20-year-mega-drought-in-australia-research-suggests-its-happened-before-and-we-should-expect-it-again
• without-community-support-the-green-energy-transition-will-fail-heres-how-to-get-communities-on-board
  

Northern America

• silver bulletin on how-culture-trumps-economic-class-as-the-new-political-faultline Thanks Nick
• scholars stage on american-nightmares Thanks Nick
• Emma Shortis on who-will-trump-pick-as-his-running-mate-in-2024-the-veepstakes-are-higher-than-usual
• Menzie Chinn on an-event-study-news-and-trump-media-and-technology-group-4-1-2024
• Eric Levitz on biden-fundraiser-trump-clinton-obama-2024-polls
• Alex Tabarrok on build-back-key-bridge-better
• Jeffrey Goldberg on rob-portman-donald-trump-january-6-impeachment
• Abdullah Fayyad on truth-social-stocks-trump-media-corruption
• Dennis Wamstead and Seth Feaster on texas-marks-milestone-road-greener-grid-solar-tops-coal-march

Europe

• Michelle Bentley on waiting-for-trump-to-be-re-elected-is-wrong-nato-leaders-need-to-trump-proof-their-policies-now
• Joel Eissenberg on record-wind-and-solar-power-generation-in-germany-no-foolin
• Will Lloyd on even-tories-seem-ashamed-of-their-record Thanks Brad
• Tarik Solmaz on why-russia-has-only-now-declared-war-ukraine
• renew economy on home-battery-capacity-equals-that-of-pumped-hydro-in-germany
• Ian Hill on did-russia-s-security-agencies-take-their-eye-ball

Asia

• Institutional economics on japanese-markets-after-the-boj
• MD Rahman on myanmar-junta-s-forced-conscription-rohingyas
• David Mathieson on how-myanmar-regime-surviving
• liberty street on can-china-catch-up-with-greece Thanks Brad
• Neve Gordon and Muna Haddad on the-road-to-famine-in-gaza

Wonk

• the conversable economist on productivity-syndrome-and-the-investment-prescription, follow-r-star , why-arent-more-patents-leading-to-more-productivity
• noahopinion on why-did-the-world-break-in-the-early-2010s , the-perverse-incentives-of-euthanasia
• the big picture on danny-kahneman-what-if-everything-is-narrative-fallacy Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on why-quantitative-easing-is-currently-so-costly
• stumbling and mumbling on on-classical-music
• Tyler Cowen on new-econ-journal-watch-edition , why-arent-canada-and-other-nations-turning-against-immigration-more
• Alex Tabarrok on cuba-libre
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-size-of-major-currency-zones-and-their-determinants
• Daniel Read on daniel-kahneman-changed-how-we-think-about-human-nature-the-psychologist-remembered-by-a-former-student
• Larissa Yarovaya on truth-social-why-donald-trumps-social-media-meme-stock-surged-and-fell-by-over-us-1-billion-within-a-week
• Kyle Chayka on trumps-social-media-potemkin-village
• John Quiggin on navies-are-obsolete-but-no-one-will-admit-it
• Darian McBain on the-cocoa-price-has-doubled-in-mere-months-but-it-shouldnt-add-much-to-the-price-of-chocolate-heres-why

General

• Tim Harford on the-alternate-universe-in-which-tottenham-are-top
• Garret Van Dyk on who-invented-the-flat-white-italian-sugar-farmers-from-regional-queensland-likely-played-a-big-role 
• Dee Ninis on taiwan-earthquake-an-earthquake-scientist-on-what-we-know-so-far-and-what-may-happen-next

Climate

• open mind on teach-your-children-well
• skeptical science on data-scientist-cautious-optimism
• real climate on much-ado-about-acceleration

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• andrew-you-are-skeptical-of-pretty-much-all-causal-claims-but-wait-causality-rules-the-world-around-us-right-plenty-have-to-be-true
  
• randomisation
  
• paper-cited-by-stanford-medical-school-professor-retracted-but-even-without-considering-the-reasons-for-retraction-this-paper-was-so-bad-that-it-should-never-have-been-cited
  
• passionate
  
• bad-parenting-in-the-news
  
• supporting bayesian modelling
• its-ariely-time-an-example-of-the-success-of-preregistration-in-revealing-problems-with-a-published-paper
  
• gold
  
• freakometrics on an introduction to multivariate and dynamic rick measures
• Kaiser Fung on from-grand-theft-to-grand-retreat , incognito-data-collection

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• digital-design
  
• ais-as-the-best
  

Vox Wonk

• circular-relationship-between-productivity-and-hours-worked
  
• long-lasting-electoral-consequences-regional-transfers
  
• climate-polarisation-and-green-investment
  
• political-and-socioeconomic-effects-reconstruction-american-south
  
• emissions-reduction-fiscal-costs-and-macro-effects-assessment-ira-climate-measures
  
• worlds-rust-belts-heterogeneous-employment-effects-deindustrialisation
  
• why-history-continues-shape-racial-inequality-us
  
• copyright-policy-options-generative-artificial-intelligence
  
• svensson-house-price-overvaluation
  
• energy-transition-technology-versus-political-backlash
  
• effects-vaccine-scepticism-public-health-and-amplifying-role-social-media-insights
  

Kaiser Fung tells it as it is

 If you like statistics then Kaiser Fung is a  must read.

One of his latest is from-grand-theft-to-grand-retreat. It is mainly how retail stores in the USA are retreating from using self checkout technology in the USA. ( watch out it wil loccur in OZ soon for the very same reasons.)

Companies really do need to think through ALL the consequences of introducing new technology 

I do remember talking to a manger at a supermarket about how easy it is to steal because of this technology. He didn't realise the implications but also said the instructions from high!