Thursday, 28 November 2019

Around the Traps 29/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

Some Climate models are OK

Tamino examines climate models and find they are quite reasonable in predicting what would happen.
It is important to note these models are different to those criticised by Andrew Gelman

Tuesday, 26 November 2019

Angus Taylor is on very thin ice

A police investigation is now been opened on Angus Taylor's infamous false figures about Sydney City council.
Before we start few people understand that false figures used in the public arena is a crime in NSW.

First of all it does not matter who refers anything to police. If they believe that a prima facie crime has been undertaken they will investigate to seek the truth. Trust me on this as my brother was a detective until his medical  retirement.

Secondly Taylor's defence that he downloaded the information from the City of Sydney's website has been blown out of the water. It is very easy to know if documents have been altered these days. The City council has shown what Taylor has alleged is absolute claptrap.
This means he has misled Parliament.

Thirdly he will have to show the police where he got the false information from. That person or persons will be prosecuted. If that person is Taylor it will show he is both a liar and corrupt. If it is not it will show he is a complete dope.
Either way his days as a minister are numbered. not a bad thing for the government as he is accident prone.

Scott Morrison's statement lead him to both ridicule and again showing poor judgement when the investigation is finally closed.
His parliamentary standards are not high which again shows his understanding of Christianity is very poor.

Monday, 25 November 2019

China: On two no three fronts

China is in the news her in OZ for Three reasons.

1) They attempted to plant an MP 

This is astonishing in its incompetence. They approach a Chinese born businessman who has a high level of debt from his car dealership and tell him they will back him with a cool $1b. He goes straight to ASIO with this and is mysteriously found dead soon after in a hotel  room.  Did these people do homework on him at all???
With Gladys Liu winning the east however has a 'Power without Glory ' episode occurred?

2) Hong Kong

The voters in Hong Kong gave the Chinese leadership a huge balk eye by voting massively for the pro-democrat parties. This result has tremendous  implications for the Lackeys of the Chinese leadership in Hong Kong and for the Chines leadership overall.

3) The Wigas

In a file dump we have learnt just how evil the Chines leadership is in its relentless approach to the Wiga people. Over a million in concentration camps for '-re-education' even though there is little evidence 'terrorism' is held high by these people. Families are uprooted and divided. only the Chinese language can be spoken.  That is only touching the surface.

Those people who thought the Chines nation would change as the economy became more capitalist are found to be badly wrong. However the same leadership is finding out ruling in a tyrannical way is proving much harder then they realised.

I do not have the answer to the Chinese problem however it is the worst time to have a blithering idiot in the Whitehouse!

Sunday, 24 November 2019

Thursday, 21 November 2019

Around the Traps 22/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 20 November 2019

Israel Folau right but mostly wrong on the bushfires

what occurs when an inexperienced christian gives a sermon. They get something badly wrong.

Someone has naturally beat me top it,
HERE it is

Monday, 18 November 2019

Hong Kong has reached the point of no return

Hong Kong will NEVER be the same again.
The formerly respected police force is seen as merely pawns of China who do their bidding. they get no respect these days from most people. The ruling elite is seen as the same. Pawns of China. Very poor politicians to boot.

In essence a lot of this can be put back to the UK. Why did they never introduce the democratic vote in Hong Kong as students there are now demanding.

We can be certain China will never given ion to any of the student's (and most other people's) demands at all.  I doubt if these people will ever support China at all.

China has destroyed Hong Kong as a city and I very much doubt it can be revived.

Sunday, 17 November 2019

Is Backburning the answer to avoiding bushfires

Everyone is piling on saying thee just have not been enough backburning. It is the Green's fault even though this is a State responsibility and Greens are nowhere near power in any State.

Well well it appears there is  a-surprising-answer-to-a-hot-question-controlled-burns-often-fail-to-slow-a-bushfire.

Who would ever have thunked it.

Thursday, 14 November 2019

Around the Traps 15/11/19

It is time for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 13 November 2019

Quantifying Trump's Protectionist Policies

Trump's protectionist policies do have economic consequences. In THIS article the three authors show they have negative employment ( and welfare)  consequences.

Ah the negative consequences of protectionism. We went through this in Australia in the 70s when they were always ignored!!


Whoopsy did have wrong link. that all fixed now

Tuesday, 12 November 2019

Dairy Problems

Andrew Fisher helps us understand the problems of the dairy industry.

One should remember farmers get mostly the same amount of money for their milk no matter what 'brand of milk you buy. ( see last read more )

Monday, 11 November 2019

Drought and Climate change

Right on time here is an article examining this topic.

Those who have direct experience have no doubt of this relationship.

Indeed they were very prescient!

This is very passionate.
Steve from Brisbane

As an added bonus direct from No Hesitations

Sunday, 10 November 2019

The ALP loss and the last election

On Friday we had the report on why the ALP lost.

I am amazed people can be sooo confident of this when ALL the polls failed so badly.

On the polling:

Thursday, 7 November 2019

Around the Traps 8/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
  • nuttin
vox wonk

Wednesday, 6 November 2019

A few points on the UK election

This is the first election in Winter in the UK since 1023.
It is cold, dark and rainy in the UK in winter. This might mean less people turn out to vote. It should affect old people more than young people and the referendum showed older voters were more likely to be in favour of Brexit..All in all it takes a brave man or woman to predict the winner of the election.

The other major issue is both the major parties have leaders who are unelectable.
Corbyn appears to think he is in 1946 in terms of his policies.
Johnson appears to be a Trump lite in terms of blatantly lying and work ethic.

If I was a pom I would vote for the Liberal Democrats..

Tuesday, 5 November 2019

There is no such thing as pay equality in sport

The absurd new deal the Matildas have gotten leads me to a politically incorrect assertion.

In sport, as opposed to the office, there is male sport and female sport.Please note if equality was here there would be no male or female sport just sport. The reason there is obvious. Females cannot compete with males.
Take the Matildas. they had a practice game against a team of teenagers some years ago and were THRASHED!
Female football  players simply do not have the balance or skill of their male counterparts.  In cricket the female spinners bowl pies and no female seems to be able to bowl side on thus they cannot swing the ball as l;ate or as much as their male counterparts. Please not they never ever have a speed gun on the female 'fast' bowlers. Why? Because they are not fast.

Let us go further. I know of no sport where attendances or TV ratings are as high for female sports as it is for male sports.
Again take the Matildas against the Socceroos. They play in stadiums mostly well away from the major cities in an attempt to make the crowds seem larger.

Let us take tennis. Females get as much money as males yet they only play against females. play less sets and have much lower ratings.

Let us face it.There is simply no such thing as equal pay in sport for females because they do not do EQUAL work.

Monday, 4 November 2019

Morrison contemplating silly laws

If we are to believe Scott Morrison the government is gong to ensure people who protest about environmental matters come under the secondary boycott provisions of the law.

Graeme Orr says the Mining industry doesn't need protection. I agree with him.

Just imagine I get involved in a demonstration against an imaginary financial institution that will provide fiance to Adani. It is imaginary because none want to.

Under this possible legislation I could be prosecuted for simply demonstrating ( pun intended) my democratic right. Yes that is how stupid it is. This is more evidence for Carol Johnson's thought on is-the-morrison-government-authoritarian-populist-with-a-punitive-bent.

Worrisome in the extreme.

Sunday, 3 November 2019

Andrew Gelman unloads on climate models

Steve from Brisbane last week had a number of articles of how climate models have problems.

Well Andrew Gelman has joined this chorus.

Read the whole thing but quite some time ago he utterly demolished Richard Tol on this subject. He is utterly bewildered to d find William Nordhaus using Tol's techniques in his well known paper.

This all raises important questions for global warming. Most importantly have we been underestimating the costs of gobal warming