Thursday, 31 May 2018

Around the Traps 1/6/18

it is time yet again for Around the Traps.

Northen America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 30 May 2018

The US company tax cuts

There has been a lot of debate on what will occur in lieu of the reduction of corporate taxes in the USA.

Willem Buiter and Anne Sibert examine this in a really interesting article.

Menzie Chinn back in April examined net-vs-gross-investment It is related.

Tuesday, 29 May 2018

Poll roundup.

A bonus today as the imitable Mark the Ballot writes on newspoll-adjustment.

Then of course we have the latest from Kevin Bonham.

He savages Simon Benson quite rightly.

Monday, 28 May 2018

The Carbon bubble and the pricing of bank loans

An utterly fascinating paper at what I call Vox Wonk called carbon-bubble-and-pricing-bank-loans.

It appears banks did not price in much risk ( in terms of stranded assets because of climate change) before 2015 but appear to be doing so now.

In Australia it is highly pertinent in the financing of coal powered stations.!

Sunday, 27 May 2018

Trump and the Korean Farce

Donald trump has not grown in office. He remains the total ignorant  person he was on the campaign trail.

Other Presidents have said no to North Korea even after the leaders of the two Koreas have met. He has few if any decent advisors in Foreign Affairs and certainly none that have any expertise on the Korean peninsular.

It puts the Korean murderers on an equal footing with the US President for a start.
After boasting he should get a nobel peace prize Trump then cancelled the meeting on the most specious of reasons. There have been a lot of humorous memes on Trump's woeful letter.  It would have helped if Bolton and Spence had a little of of knowledge on the Korean situation but they have not apart from Bolton wanting to stop the meeting. ( His writings range from delusional to a outright absurd. Can anyone imagine what a new war bring?)  Spence is simply an ignorant fool when it comes to anything on foreign affairs.
How come no-one there understands the first person you tell about breaking a meeting is the south Korea President.

The Korean murderer is more than a match for Trump in the PR stakes. Knowing the South Korean noses would be out of joint he met again with the South Korean President. This put Trump in an untenable  position.

So now we have US officials trying again to organise a meeting.

The whole thing shows Trump and his 'team' are ignorant and really do not have much of a clue.

Some additional material.

Thursday, 24 May 2018

Around the Traps 25/5/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 23 May 2018

Some TV Shows

Need for some lighted chat.

Some TV shows of late.

Harrow was on ABC TV. I like the show if only for the great Ioan Gruffudd. The overall them was good if a tad too close to Forever which was a superior series despite its nonsensical them.
two main criticisms. Those working at the morgue do not work with uniform police. They work with detectives. The love interest did not work if only because she was unattractive and there was no chemistry.There was good chemistry within the cast though. Having  said that I am looking forward to the second series.

NCIS  My sons taped this for me to watch to get my opinion. It is way past its used by date. The writing is tired and there are few interesting characters. The series has also tried to portray female leads as absolute babes when clearly they are not.The other stinging criticism is the unlimited budgets the department has. Doesn't happen. More so in the public service. The characters are uninteresting as well.

DCI Banks.  My thanks for Nine Gem for showing the start of this great series. ( It is way better when Caroline Catz is in the series).  The wring is good and the characters gel with each other. It is British drama at its best. One question is why Andrea Lowe  only wears jeans!

Endeavour  the ABC is now showing the new season on this series and it is still very good. This is the series of the young Morse. I have been very critical of Morse and John Thaw as Morse. He neither looks intelligent and dresses as bad as a Yank.
Sean Rigby on the other hand understands the character of Morse possibly because of the original series. He appears the ably intelligent detective who is also the 'defender' of females. The cast is a ripper as well. The chemistry simply oozes all over the place.

 Lewis is still showing on 72 and the series went on decline when Chief Inspector ( Jean Vincent) left. The writers and actors simply did not know what to do. The series went from very good to passable. Lewis of course was Morse's offsider in Morse.  Laurence Fox as Hathaway is an almost modern day Morse. Again until the Chief Inspector left the chemistry was very good.

Instinct. this is a new series on Ten. I am undecided on this .I have watched the first episode and decided to watch the next just in case it gets better. He we we a detective in NY ( What Precinct?) teams up  with a Professor who has an interest in abnormal behaviour and this proves valuable in catching murderers. ( He is also ex CIA and a homosexual).
No chemistry in the cast although great to see a lieutenant and not a captain.
 It could be just beginner pains so I shall see if they can get rid of the faults.

Tuesday, 22 May 2018

Peter Ridd. Bolt wrong again

Peter Ridd has become a cause all denialists want to cash in on.

Andrew Bolt is one. ( Funny how his brother, Richard, who has actual experience in climate change has never publicly supported his denialist rantings). He clearly has realised there is plenty of money to be made in being an angry old man.

As per usual Bolt has not done his homework.We saw this yesterday in the case of Liddell power station. He has form on this not least in the various court cases he has lost.
Graham Readfearn outline all his errors.

Monday, 21 May 2018

Liddell Power station again

We have previously examined Liddell power and what AGL wants to do with it HERE.
However it appears few critics actually know what they are talking about.
I know let us try Andrew Bolt who lost a court case because he simply did not do the basic research. Do take note of his interview with Tony Abbott another person not known for attention to detail.
Now compare that with what AGL said some time ago.( 9th December 2017 actually).

There are only two conclusions which could be made.

  1. Neither are aware of the AGL press release which is available on their media centre on their website or
  2. They are both lying through their collective teeth.
Going on history it is undoubtedly the former. After all they do not possess the wherewithal to actually do extremely basic research do they!

Alan Moran cannot help himself.

He lies about renewables being the main reason for energy price rises . Almost anyone with expertise in this area which of course exclude Al, says it is mostly gold plating . See HERE or HERE for example.
He also ignores AGL's plans to replace liddell conveniently.
He writes at Catallaxy where truth is a swear word ( fake news blog?) and no-one will criticise him as they have no idea and because Sinkers hates free speech there.

The ALP has a much better fiscal policy than the Government.

One thing we state with confidence after the budget and then the reply by the Opposition is that the ALP has a much superior fiscal policy than the Government. What we do not know is how much better it is and we will not know until the election is going.

The Government has three major problems.

  1. With nominal GDP growth expected to be at average growth rates or better then fiscal consolidation needs to occur post hast.
  2. The Government's speed limit makes no sense as the Kouk points out. Economic growth can be very healthy when taxation levels are above the speed limits as the Liberal government headed by John Howard showed. This policy also puts a lid on fiscal consolidation. does anyone out there really believe any government can get expenditure down to say 22.9% of GDP to get say a surplus of 1% of GDP. it is currently estimates to be 25.2% of GDP this coming financial year.
  3. The tax cuts out in the never never ( see John Quiggin or Ross Gittins) clearly show the government has no plan to reduce net debt or even have surpluses for a decent period of time.  
The ALP has much greater room to move because of the various measures they have announced to help restore the revenue government gets after it was decimated in the ALP years where the ration got back to levels we have not seen since when Keating was PM.

We will have to wait until the election to see how much the ALP puts the extra revenue into budget consolidation. My gut feeling is people would change their votes if the ALP went for greater fiscal consolidation ( assuming average or better Nominal; GDP growth rates) rather than greater spending and/or tax cuts.

Sunday, 20 May 2018

The Amazing Malaysian election

I was totally surprised by the outcome of the election. Not that Umno lost so many votes given the inherent corruption in the system this was inevitable. And I was certainly not surprised that the Opposition coalition won easily the majority of votes.

What surprised me was the government actually giving in and allowing a change of government.
given the extremely blatant gerrymandering , the changes in the laws and the almost absence of any media coverage of the Opposition I thought they would never give up power. Particularly when the PM at the time looks like he had his hand in the till ( for his wife).

Certainly Singapore would have had a very compliant Judiciary make up some reason to have the voting invalid.
Thus far it is good. Press freedom has abounded and it appears the New government appears determined to carry out their reforms.

I will wait however before making a final call on this. Anwar and Mahathir and by no means clean skins.  An Umno lite government would mean democracy has yet to reach Malaysia.

Thursday, 17 May 2018

Around the Traps 18/5/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

The 'Tesla' battery has a large impact

The 'Tesla' battery has made a great impact on the electricity market. Reducing wholesale prices hugely ( a highly technical term) is  but one.
This renew economy article is a little dated but still highly relevant.
One obvious by product of the battery is any renewable  network coupled , as it should be with a battery albeit smaller than the one above, ( as recommended in the Finkel report) will be much superior to deal with dispatchable power alah the NEG than coal power

Tuesday, 15 May 2018

does status threat explain the US Presidential election

The ever excellent Andrew Gelman discusses a paper with the above title.

If you enjoy stats interloped with understanding the last presidential election then this is a must read..
Andrew has a link in it to his co-authored paper on the election outcome.

Israel Folau and Offsiders

Oh dear,
My sons taped offsiders on Sunday and I was forced to watch the program.

Apparently Folau is both a bigot and speaking hate speech when he says homosexual who engage in sexual acts and do not repent and thus go to hell. Indeed they believe he should be sacked by the ARU.

It gets worse. apparently this leads young homosexuals in active sexual relationships to commit suicide. That's right people who have no regard for God and indeed do not recognise him get all upset about being told they are going to hell.
Sorry heaven is not an inclusive place!

Now as I said last time on this issue Folau should have also added that any heterosexuals who engage in fornication or adultery and do not repent receive the same punishment. This makes the offsiders panel just look stupid.

It should also be said Folau has NEVER said homosexuals should bot be allowed to play rugby union.

If the ARU sacked Folau for his comments then he would have very good grounds to sue as I am advised.
I am sure the new CEO knows this but cannot say this.

Monday, 14 May 2018

The By-elections and all that

There are a few things to discuss on this topic.

First there is the STUPID RULING.
Next  is the MYTH OF 1911. I couldn't believe that Insiders and other places were so ignorant.
Lastly we need to know how swings go when the an Opposition seat is up for grabs at a by-election. We of course go to KEVIN BONHAM.

Now we are in a position  to make cogitate on this subject.
In previous by-elections on this issue the punters have given the Court of Disputed Returns the finger.
Will they continue to do this? On the surface you would expect them to do so after all all four (previous) mp's had a good right to think they were okay in lieu with Sykes V Cleary as we have seen before however their electorates may not think like that now.

We shall see

Sunday, 13 May 2018

The reason behind the raid on Cohen

Noah Feldman , a legal scholar, writes a fascinating article in the New York Review of Books ( a fantastic publication) on the reason behind the raid on Cohen ,Trump's lawyer.

It might not have anything to do with Russia but have to do with the two ( Cohen and Trump) covering up a crime.

Even if this is the case could Trump be prosecuted?
As Mr Spock would say fascinating.

The 1970s global cooling myth

David Kirtley on Skeptical Science writes HERE and HERE on the myth that in the 1970s global cooling was all the rage.

Jim Rose I hope you read this!

Thursday, 10 May 2018

Around the Traps 11/5/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin, not happy Dave
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk