Monday, 31 October 2022

The Melbourne Cup is a joke

 I am always amazed by the support of people for the Melbourne Cup.

  1. It encourages gambling which is a sin. You are getting something for nothing. Gambling involves a lot of money from 'problem gamblers. families lose. 
  2. Productivity falls. Workers are not doing productive work when they are drinking ( usually to excess), and not doing the work they are paid for.
  3. It can lead to violence ( because of 1).
Only in Australia.

Sunday, 30 October 2022

Thursday, 27 October 2022

Around the Traps 28/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 26 October 2022

the Inflation data was bad

 The ABS released the quarterly CPI data yesterday.

It was a shocker. The trimmed mean was bad as well although the weighted median less so for reasons i am unsure about.

Two things arise from this. The RBA will go harder and longer then previously thought. Perhaps they may go 50 points next tuesday but I think It will be 25 points and another 25 points in december.

The odds of a recession just increased.

Tuesday, 25 October 2022

The budget

 okay here are a few articles


Just a few points.  They inherited a structural deficit of around $ 30-40b. ( you cannot be precise about this term unfortunately.
Going to hard too fast given what the RBA is doing would guarantee a recession rather than a slowdown. Thus it is stuck between a rock and a hard place. As Wayne Swan found out if you need to cut structural deficit the RBA needs to cut interest rates.
It is very good they are banking most of the extra revenues. It is also good they are quite restrained on spending.
However more spending cuts were needed more so given the new priories the government has.

Why the government has not introduced a supernormal profits tax on energy companies because of the explosion on fossil fuel prices ( which is predicted to continue) is simply madness.

They could have done better bbut we wait fo the next budget next May.

Monday, 24 October 2022

The Murray Darling problem

 An excellent article today claiming water extraction not climate change is mainly to blame for problems there. 

Sunday, 23 October 2022

Queensland's pumped Hydro not needed?

 David Leitch writing in Renew Economy writes has-queensland-overpumped-its-pumped-hydro-plans.

It well worth a read. He believes more wind would be better and like the Kurri Kurri gas station it wil lnot be used much.

Thursday, 20 October 2022

Around the Traps 21/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 19 October 2022

Tuesday, 18 October 2022

China

 Is China surging forward and what is its future?

Steve from Brisbane has a good article, Noah Smith has another very good article as well.

Monday, 17 October 2022

Sunday, 16 October 2022

cotton in the firing line

 It is ironic that cotton is in the firing line because of climate change here in Australia.

Thursday, 13 October 2022

Around the Traps 14/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 12 October 2022

When climate deniers get it badly wrong

 A really interesting article at Real Climate on papers by a person named Scafetta who gets almost everything wrong but comes back for more.

It is both unbelievable and embarrassing at the same time.

Tuesday, 11 October 2022

What is happening in Iran

 Wow things are really hotting up in Iran.

I would add that the USA has not been very good at its relations with Iran.

It has a number of times ruined a 'liberal' President so a hardliner replaces him such as the present. The previous administration won in a landslide because the Iran electorate thought the Nuke deal would mean greater trade and more economic growth.
Trump broke that agreement, allowed the hardliners in Iran to say you can never trust the USA. Iran simply recommenced it nuclear program.

Imagine if Trump had never existed. Iranians would have much higher living standards, no nuclear program and an electorate that demanded higher living standards not wasted money on foreign 'adventures'.

Monday, 10 October 2022

Religious Freedom

 HERE is an article which goes into this subject in quite a bit of detail.

A few points.

  1. Christian schools which teach and operate according to the bible are threatened by attempts to repeal protections offered to faith based schools
  2. It appears most states and territories will not allow any religious body or school from making staff decisions that preserve their religious ethos and mission. In other words they could no longer insist paid staff either are Christians or model Christian beliefs.
  3. This would undermine the right of parents to have their children brought up in surroundings that reflect their faith
  4. It is unlawful in Victoria to give biblical counsel or even pray for someone struggling with unwanted sexual desires or gender dysphoria even if they ask and consent to it. Other states are following suit.
  5. Health practitioners are forced to allow euthanasia even though their conscience does not allow them to proceed.
  6. Secular judges will be allowed to make decisions in relation to ordination, employment worship etc.
I could also add we still do not know whether employers can sack people because of their faith. In this instance the outcome of the Folau case was highly unsatisfactory.

In this case and the Thorburn case people have conflated entry into heaven with playing a sport which is absurd. In both cases neither person talked about their sport. In Thorburn's case we do not even know if he agrees with the sermon!

Australia is becoming very secular and  intolerant


Sunday, 9 October 2022

Read and weep

 A  Study  finds excessive deaths for registered republicans much much higher than for registered democrats.

This came about because these people swallowed the lie of that they had no need to get vaccinated.

Fox and co are murderers!

Thursday, 6 October 2022

Around the Traps 7/10/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

  • nuttin

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 5 October 2022

Should we bring the women and children home from Syria

 A couple of informed people write on this.

Other countries have brought home people without any of the problems some seem to foresee.

Tuesday, 4 October 2022

The RBA goes safe and steady

 The RBA yesrday raised rates 25 basis points. Clearly they are worried about going too quickly and too far in raising rates. My guess is they will raise another 25 points on Melbourne cup day and then take a rest and see what happens. The guess continues that the RBA will probably have to tighten again near the end of summer.

Monetary policy involves guesswork because of the lags involved. I get the feeling people do not need to reduce spending yet. It is because of this I would not be surprised if the RBA has to go a little too far in raising rates and then when the pips squeak have to reduce them even the the end of next year.

We shall see.

Monday, 3 October 2022

Climate and Debt

 A nice column on a book from what I call vox wonk.


A short but interesting read