Tuesday, 30 June 2026

The World Cup

 we are about halfway through the world cup and it has to be said the increase in teams has not led to blowouts very much. Cape Verde actually got through to the group of 32.

I do not understand why games are played during the day given the USA, Canada and Mexico are in summer.

My only beef is some of the UK's great commentators are calling the games. The incomparable Peter Drury is thank the lord and so is Martin Tyler ( time to retire I think) but some of those we are used to viewing the EPL are not.

Just on that when is SBS going to replace David Basheer ( and luke wiltshire). both are poor and almost ruin a socceroos game.

I think we can best Egypt but France look good to win the cup. They were awesome against Sweden

Monday, 29 June 2026

Ukraine update

 I wrote previously that russia cannot win this war and I stand by it. (If you are interested in this war can I recommend Ben hodges on youtube amongst others)

Ukraine have learned lessons when they failed. they are innovative and the leaders in the world at using drones.

Crimea has very little oil, ammunition, supplies etc. Only the military can get petrol. People are leaving there in droves and few russians are taking their summer holiday there. Putin has to divert resources there from other places which weakens those places and in reality does do much for crimea.

Russia is struggling to replace dead and wounded soldiers and even then ukrainian drones are stopping supplies getting to them.

Ukraine is winning back territory in net terms, That is they are gaining more than they lose.

some people are saying Putin is not getting the truth from his generals. I don't buy that. There is enough information around to know the war is going bad.

however he has no choice to battle on ( pun intended) and hope russia somehow winds. Given how much Ukraine is disabling russia's oil industry this hope is moot.

If the west give Ukraine the aid they need they will defeat russia. Will they?

Sunday, 28 June 2026

a few different things

 socceroos

We play egypt at 4 am on saturday morning and I am confident. I would have Geria at right back and Boc at left back as Behich won't contain Salah. I would start with volpato and yengi and finish with irankandu and toure.

US politics

Goldman lost his primary. given he was one of the more impressive democrats in congress this is very perplexing to me.

the reflecting poll is green when it is supposed to be blue. Well give the jo0b to someone who has no experience and have no tender why is anyone surprised.

Regime change is one hellva a book. quite revealing.

Karl Stefanovic

He has discovered where the money is. Angry old white men like to spend money to hear about how they are being done by governments. they certainly do not like non-white immigration but they never have in history but do not say that is racist

Ben Stokes

Whoa how could I forget Stokes has announced his retirement. I must admit I thought he would do it after the Ashes. England will miss him for he was bowling as well as ever, his batting had slipped and he was a good captain. the ashes wil lbe different without him.

Thursday, 25 June 2026

Around the Traps 26/6/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Another rate rise looks likely

 The CPI came out yesterday. although the headline figure fell the Trimmed mean figure rose.

Thus I agree with Isaac Gross.  So I feel the RBA will have no choice but to raise rates after the next CPI figures when the RBA then sees what the quarterly figures are.

The price pressures are home grown.

Tuesday, 23 June 2026

Why the mid-terms will go blue

 The mid-terms are almost guaranteed in my view. People like to vote against the incumbent in the white house and trump is the most unpopular president in memory.

Let us assume no further hostilities arise between the USA and Iran. This means petrol prices will eventually fall but slowly but remember some of the costs are already embedded in the system. Trump has wrong views about tariffs and they raise  the cost of products but Trump will want to raise more.  Inflation will still be at a worrying level come november. It is unlikely the Fed will be hawkish

His cabinet is made up of incompetents so we can expect more poor decisions being made. 

In essence it is getting too late to change even if someone wanted to. 

The other thing is the US voter gives Trump too much power and then votes in the mid terms to put some hand brakes on.

Trump himself is getting worse. Whether it is going to sleep when cameras are on ( and then foolishly denying it) or simply giving more evidence he is cognitively challenged.  Watch this as Trump just cannot handle this psychologically.

I might just add gerrymandering does not help a lot. Evidence from our country holds malapportionment will win government for parties who do not win the vote but gerrymandering rarely does.   If a big swing is on those 'safe' seats are no longer 'safe'.

So a big swing should  occur in november.

Monday, 22 June 2026

Starmer gawn

 Keir Starmer has resigned. I do not pretend to understand politics in the UK. I wrote previously that Starmer although seen as a decent man di not pick staff well and was quite indecisive by nature. This led people to wonder what the Labour party was doing. Starmer was also poor at speeches so when he hit tradewinds he had little to help him.

The massive win for Burnham in Manchester simply made it evitable he would become PM. Unlike Starmer he is an excellent communicator so we shall see. I shall certainly be listening to the redoubtable Ian Dunt tonight on late night live.

Sunday, 21 June 2026

Poppa got it badly wrong

 Perhaps the Turkey game went to his head but Poppa's changes to australia against the USA made no sense.   He dropped our two goal scorers and perhaps our two best players on the field and their replacements made no sense. One should not even be there and the other is too old.

changes were needed because we knew the USA would come at us. I would have brought in Herrington at the back as he has the pace and Irvine in the midfield as he has the experience.

I would have thought after all the trash talk our blokes would have come out fighting but they were lethargic.

Against Paraguay I would have Herrington at the back and would have Volpato ( he was a revelation when he came on), Toure and Irankanda to score goals.


We can win and should play to win.

Thursday, 18 June 2026

Around the Traps 19/6/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 17 June 2026

Pauline Hanson did not impress

 Pauline Hanson delivered a very long address at the national press club. She then avoided most of the questions asked and showed a clear glass jaw.

Just a few examples.

She believes employees have too much power and are lazy. holy Theory Y Theory Z batman. Douglas McGregor wrote the book in 1957. the theory is almost as old as I am!!  I can see ALP stalwarts making an ad of this remark.

She believes net zero is a myth and renewables is the reason power costs have risen. She wants to stop all renewables and build coal and a nuclear power station.  Wow a lot of ignorance there. lots of ad material her as well.

She did not react well to a question from Sarah Martin who asked about he daughter who is employed by a NSW senator but LIVES in Tasmania. She apparently wants to be a senator there.

In short she thrived on the grievances but has few solutions. She has never had the concentration of the press on her during an election. Next time she will and on this evidence she will not react well.

Just remember given her hostility to immigration ( non-white) she has probably reached her peak in votes. Her aim is to keep those people who have migrated ( pun intended) from the LNP and the ALP.

Her lack of policies, hostility to the press, hostility to workers, hostility to the environment will all hurt her in that aim.


Just remember in 1996 she said asians would take over Australia. About a decade later she changed that to muslims. None of those predictions have come within coo-ee of being right.

Tuesday, 16 June 2026

home battery

 An update on how our battery is going.

The last bill was around $110 which is very low for a four person household. however it was that high because my wife had the air conditioning on quite a lot.

A battery is very good at telling you indirectly how much various items use electricity. Thus washing machines, dishwashers etc use little but ovens,stoves, mico-waves, air fryers use a lot.

We have only had our battery full on a day once since the ending of daylight saving. This is because my boys had friends over and used a lot of electricity cooking up a treat.

The problem is if you start the day with nothing in the battery then it aint going to get full on the day. The KWs just don't have the same gusto behind them in winter.

Thus we are using electricity during the night when it is off-peak and in the morning when it isn't.

Monday, 15 June 2026

the 'peace'deal

 First a couple of informed comments

There were a whole host of reasons given for this illegal war started by the USA. Lets go through them

  1. Regime Change. Never occurred never looked like occurring and trump gave up on it very quickly.
  2. No Nukes. How Iran could be sooo close to a nuke after the USA 'obliterated' their capacity was never addressed. This issue has been pushed down the road
  3. Iran's support of terrorist groups. nothing has occurred on this front either. Indeed Iran has made it clear they want Israel to back off Hizbullah
  4. Iran's missiles and drones. No-one but no-one has talked about this!
The only issue Trump has talked about is the freeing up of the strait of homuz. This was free of any trouble before trump started his disastrous war.



Sunday, 14 June 2026

The Magnificent Socceroos

 That was easily the best performance I have seen from australia  playing football.

There was not a bad player on the field. The defence was tight with Soutar again showing his best performances are at the world cup. The midfield was hardworking and the attack always threatened on the breakaway. Bos showed absolute class on a number of occasions.

Almost all of Poppa's choices worked out well. Beach was superb, Okon strong with a brilliant through pass ( I confess I would not have had him in my squad!). His first substitution was mystifying and he was lucky turkey didn't score from his mistake.

Playing toure and Irankunda from the start paid off when the big I scored a very good goal.

I suspect neither will start against the USA but come on as subs.

I cannot wait for 5am on saturday.


Whoopsy I forgot to mention ONLY Harry Soutar had played in the world cup before!!

Thursday, 11 June 2026

Around the Traps 12/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 10 June 2026

The next administration has a hellva job reforming the DOJ

 The DOJ has been severely degraded un Trump 2.0

 They have lost regularity and have been found to lie before judges and conduct grand juries in an unlawful way. Indeed it would not be uncommon for charged people to ask to see grand jury transcripts or ask that a magistrate judge examine them. Quite clearly the Lindsay Halligan incident was NOT a one-off.

Apparently the DOJ have lost around 10,000 in either sackings or resignations. Things have got so bad the DOJ have to offer financial incentives just to gain new graduates. The quality of people in the DOJ has naturally declined.

I could go on but I have no need to. The AG and DAG in the nest admisitration has a lot to do to get back experienced personnel back to the DOJ and political hacks out of the department. There has to be a concerted push to have people whose primary asset is what they know NOT who they know!

Tuesday, 9 June 2026

the energy market is changing

 David Leitch has a great article out today. It shows how the wholesale market is changing. ( It also indirectly show how much better we are off by having so much renewable energy. Imagine where prices would be if the climate denialists had their way. just look at europe).

Commercial and household batteries are changing demand and price! 

Monday, 8 June 2026

will One Nation's vote continue right up to the election ?

 A lot of people are talking about the rise of one nation's vote in the polls.

Let us be accurate however . This has mainly come at the expense of the Liberals and Nationals. Thus the question is will those disillusioned voters remain with one nation or eventually go back to the LNP.

Before the rise we could make the wholly generalised statement that one nation voters were not that smart. They like Hansson because she was like them. not very smart and not very eloquent.

However one cannot make that statement of the punters who have gone to one nation recently. I think we can assume a few things. yes they know a lot of one nation's policies are stupid BUT it seems what they do like is the party is firm on their policies even if they are daft and not costed..

Will these people go back to the LNP or stay with one nation. It depends. Certainly thus far one nation is particularly poor when pressed on policies even when they are clearly soft interviews. one can only speculate on what would happen when the interview is not soft. Of course they may not occur.

We should also be cognisant about the poor procedures one nation has for examining candidates and staff. They also indulge in a lot of in-fighting.

I suspect if only a bit of this occurs then the former LNP voters or a  majority of them will return to the fold. Of course as my wife frequently tells me I could be wrong.

Sunday, 7 June 2026

the King's honours list

 This is a complete joke. As Nick Gruen said a long time ago these awards are given to most people for simply doing their job. Isn't that why they were paid?

enough said

Thursday, 4 June 2026

Around the Traps 5/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

OZ Climate

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk