Monday, 31 August 2015

Bill Shorten is a very lucky man part two

Yesterday Dyson Heydon said he would not stand down as the head of the Royal Commission.
for a man who reputedly has a mind like a steel trap his reasoning was specious and pretty easy to refute. One wonders why he took so long to write it. It was so bad it has now has become a figure of fun.
Here is a reasonable take on the whole thing.Richard Ackland has a bit of fun.

For all the talk of integrity Heydon didn't show any at all.
Bill Shorten must be the luckiest man alive. Heydon's argument and the government's defence of him makes this increasingly a political event for any ordinary punter.
Any criticism it makes of Shorten he can shrug off as a biased decision.All futre people to appear before the RC can make the Heydon defence.

Looking at this in purely political terms the ALP never wanted Heydon to resign as he should have. They wanted him to continue so they can shrug it off as I have stated.

The next thing they want is a large swing in Canning but not large enough to win so Abbott continues as PM.

Bill Shorten has to be the luckiest Opposition leader ever opposing a first term Government!

Sunday, 30 August 2015

Steve From Brisbane was RIGHT

Very early on Steve from Brisbane called the Present Government as the worst of all time.

I am afraid the events last friday confirmed this.

Just remember this.
They inherited this from the previous Government.

Deficit as a % of GDP        1.9

Receipts as a % of GDP     24.0
Payments as a % of GDP   25.9

The latest budget figures ,which will be changed when MYEFO comes out in December, are.

Deficit as a % of GDP      2.1
Receipts as a % of GDP   24.0
Payments as a % of GDP 25.9

So the deficit has blown out ( Primarily because nominal GDP is so weak ( because of weak Terms of Trade) however since they poo pooed this in Opposition they cannot now give this an excuse!

They are getting more in tax than the previous Government ever did and are now spending as much the previous Government did without a GFC in sight.
The Kouk on debt

I was wrong Steve and you were right!

Thursday, 27 August 2015

Around the Traps 28/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Croaking Cassandra is now an adopted Aussie. No football or cricket so updating at leisure.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle  (Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Poll round up

More polls so another poll round up.

Here is :

Not looking good for the coalition at all.

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Q and A Much Ado about Nothing

I watched Qand A the other night ( or replay actually as I had a cricket meeting.)

I enjoyed the show and thought all the participants were interesting although Tony Windsor got to the boring stage quicker than the rest.

I have to say I completely missed the NAME of the tweeter. Not unexpectedly Katesy get his facts wrong again. It wasn't an anti-abbott tweet. It was anti-abbott name.

When I look at those damned tweets I just look at what is said like most viewers. I never look at the name of the tweeter.

I am not surprised this got passed whoever looks at which tweets to put on. You would be looking at the content not the name.

Indeed this raises the question what sort of person would look at the names of tweeters and why?

How to fix this up.

Get rid of the tweets. It is off-putting and doesn't do anything to enhance the show.


I see Greg Hunt is talking about the offensive tweer. He is as stupid and lazy as Katesy. The tweet was not offensive. It was the name of the tweeter! As I stated previously the person would have been looking at the tweet not the tweeter's name.

Further Update:

This has died a quick death probably for the reasons outlined.

Monday, 24 August 2015

The extremely impressive Katy Faust

Katy Faust was on Q and A recently and really made the show.
Gracious to a ll questioners and impressive with her knowledge of the area she specialises in.
The conversation did a fact check on her statements.HERE.

Hey not so fast. Katy Faust came back with her own fact check of sorts. HERE.

You can choose whom is right. You know where I stand.

Sunday, 23 August 2015

The Ashes Fifth Test

Yet again we have a test where there is no contest.

Cook won the toss and bowled yet his bowlers wasted the opportunity.Australia got a good total and then bowled well. There was no fight in England and they got beaten easily.

I do not understand how bowlers can bowl well in one test and then bowl badly in the next. you expect some consistency by bowlers in test matches.
We saw no fight by batsmen in any of the test matches. once a team was down they were gone to gowings.

Being an ex-fast bowler I enjoyed the flurry of wickets in most tests. The batting for the most part was lamentable on both sides.

I think the wickets for the last three matches were excellent but much too dead for the first two.

I will write about the next ashes series and the possibilities a bit later.

Overall an ashes series enjoyable to watch.

Thursday, 20 August 2015

Around the Traps 21/8/15

It is time again for Around the Traps.

The Ashes
Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 19 August 2015

The Canning Byelection

I do not believe in inventing the wheel so I will naturally outsource this to the one and only Kevin Bonham.

A great read as usual.

Monday, 17 August 2015

Q and A rocks

I had never watched Q and A until the controversy erupted. I have since then and it is a good program. all the programs except one have proved quite enjoyable viewing. The one that wasn't included Alan Jones, Say no more.
Last night Brendon O'Neil and Kate Faust really floored everybody else.
They were on fire.
The person who was really dad was Richard Di Natale the Greens leader. Until this moment he had been shown in a good light and had gotten the Greens back into the political contest.
last night he has actually really bad.
He made generalised comments and at times held views that had no evidence to back them up with.

Tony Jones as the person who makes the program is the perfect person for the role.

It does remind me somewhat of the very old Monday Conference which the Late Bob Moore was the frontman for.

Sunday, 16 August 2015

The Curious case of Dyson Heydon

Dyson Heydon is in it. Richard Ackland tell s us about him.

His big problem is that he was due to give a speech at the Garfield Barwick lecture which was a Liberal party fundraiser. as Ben Eltham notes imagine the hue and cry from the government if Gillian Triggs was going to give a speech at an ALP fundraiser!!

There is a lot of irony here.

  • Garfield Barwick was easily the most political judge ever to sit on the High Court.
  • Heydon's explanation is one he does not accept from Union officials at the Royal Commission he is presiding over.
It is a measure of how deep in doggy doo doo Heydon is in when Tony Burke of all people can easily criticise him. As he said Heydon is either incredibly incompetent or very loose with the truth. Either way his position as Head of the Royal Commission is untenable.

If Dyson Heydon has the integrity everybody says he has then he will resign. If he hasn't got it then he won't resign.
We wil soon find out.

Bill Shorten is an incredibly lucky person. He can easily brush aside any criticisms made of him by the Royal Commission moreover the results are now tainted.

It is now a complete waste of money thanks to Dyson Heydon.

Dyson Heydon has now given a statement to the Royal Commission which raises more questions than it answers.
Dyson Heydon is either the most naive person on the planet or one of the most devious with one of the worst excuses.
He simply doesn't understand he doesn't understand HE has compromised his own royal commission.
no matter what he finds they will de drowned out by his incompetence.He has now gicven a leave pass to any corrupt Union official he has found out about!

Further Update:
Heydon has now released e-mails of his correspondence about the speech. He now says he simply did not pen the attachments which showed it was a fundraiser. All people who appear at the RC will now use the Heydon excuse. the RC is now officially cactus.
Lenore Taylor says it better than I. So is Michelle Grattan.

If the man doesn't resign he has no honour at all. I think he will.

Thursday, 13 August 2015

Around the Traps 14/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mostly statistics)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 12 August 2015

The Government's polling blues

The Government is still polling badly.

For stat wonks we have Mark the Ballot:

And then we have the inimitable Kevin Bonham for both stats and incisive comment.

Thus we know The Government has if anything deteriorated lately. This is truly remarkable and almost unheard of for a FIRST TERM  Government.

Why is this so as Julius Sumner Miller would have said.

One thing that stands out like the proverbial shag on a rock is people are no longer taking what anything the Government says seriously.

Two examples from yesterday

Abbott adopts a principled position on same sex marriage ( Which I support) but then does in in his party room in an unprincipled way which can be viewed by anyone. At least when Howqrd did it with the Republican debate it was not easy to see!

Abbott claims the ALP will adopt a price on carbon of $200. This is hyperbole overdrive and makes any statement by him hard to accept.

Being sneaky and loose with the truth is a very bad combination.

If you are a gambler ( and remember it is a sin) then I agree with the Kouk.

Tuesday, 11 August 2015

The Trump Phenomenon

We are still well away from the next Presidential election yet we are in the midst of the race for the Presidency as the Republican contenders  struggle to gain momentum.

I will concentrate on the Republicans as the Democrats appear to have their contender already, Hillary Clinton is clearly the most 'wonkish' contender however she lost the Democratic primary last time because her political nous was lacking. We have yet to see any evidence she has improved in that regard.

It is all Donald Trump with regard to the Republicans. ( If you like polls and punditry then try Real Clear politics,)

I want to concentrate on something everybody appears to have missed. What happens when Trump eventually goes.
Trump at present is the front runner at around 24% at best. It is not a great lead and a low count only makes him the leader because there are so many candidates.

However Trump will mean a number of candidates will have to leave the race because they do not have the support and thus the money is drying up. The main question is where will those votes go to. If they go to another candidate that is close to Trump then they would overtake him in the polls and thus Trump will lose oxygen ans thus also publicity and he will eventually leave the race.

The main questions to answer are who will leave the race and who will benefit when they do?

I have no idea but the Republicans must be praying a reasonable bunch of candidates remain.

Monday, 10 August 2015

Big Scary climate costs?

Steve from Brisbane beat me to it. Lenore Taylor also weighs in.

the only other thing I would add is saying a costing based on a fixed price of $27 and going up is the same as a floating price which is more than half that is a bit stupid.

It shows either the person doesn't understand basic modelling or they think the price on carbon is exactly the same.  Whoopsy.

Sunday, 9 August 2015

The Ashes debacle fourth Test

What more can be said!
I do not understand why in the FOURTH test Australian batsman still have no technique to a moving ball. whether it is in the air or off the pitch.
I teach my U/16s to get the head over the ball but this is beyond our test batsman!

In three of the four tests thus far we have had batsman getting out to a moving ball and bowlers who give away runs. There appears little fight with either our batsmen or bowlers.
England have top order problems but we have no plan to exploit that!

Moreover no selection escapades make sense. We had to win at Trent Bridge. The test would last last five days so you had to have bowlers to take wickets so what did we do? Drop an all-rounder and bring in a batsman?

I had to go shopping with my wife last Thursday night . I got an excited call from my eldest son after three wickets were down. By the time I got home 5 were down!

An incredible test where I was simply embarrassed. Can we please gain some respect at the oval

I wonder how much Clarke's injury contributed to his dreadful form. He did appear to me not be be straight as possible and his head not upright as it should be.

Thursday, 6 August 2015

Around the Traps 7/8/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
I will attempt to update on Sunday however be warned I am still in a state of shock from the ineptness at Trent Bridge

The Ashes
Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mostly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk