Around the Traps 12/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• inflection points on against-affordable-housing thanks nick
• Sam Roggeveen on sub-text thanks nick
• Jennifer Parker on why-is-australia-buying-used-submarines-a-naval-expert-answers-key-aukus-questions
• Chris Wallace on reform-is-hard-albanese-and-chalmers-need-to-stay-the-course
• Mark the Graph on capital-gains-tax-good-reform-or-bad , a-tour-of-microeconomics-of-housing
• Greg Jericho on australia-housing-house-prices-falling-data
• Kevin Bonham on independent-australia-worst-website-in-australian-politics

OZ Climate

• significant-milestone-off-grid-mine-runs-155-consecutive-hours-on-100-pct-renewables-and-engines-off 
  
• anatomy-of-a-renewable-finance-deal-developer-lands-equity-for-states-largest-solar-battery-hybrid
  
• solar-projects-to-be-hit-by-big-increase-in-costs-due-to-new-australian-anti-dumping-decision
  
• batteries-and-wind-are-crushing-evening-peak-prices-and-there-is-more-pain-to-come-for-gas-and-coal
  
• global-wind-giant-plans-to-plug-battery-storage-into-turbines-at-all-new-australian-projects-starting-in-nsw
  
• not-easy-australias-biggest-transmission-project-energised-after-delays-and-cost-overruns
  
• passive-home-batteries-deliver-enormous-benefit-to-the-grid-says-aemo-even-if-not-orchestrated-in-vpps
  
• big-and-small-batteries-fundamentally-changing-the-grid-and-its-planning-blueprint-says-aemo-boss
  
• i-would-like-to-see-a-change-in-behaviour-rule-maker-wants-retailers-to-act-before-it-has-to-intervene
  
• depleted-batteries-and-very-expensive-gas-how-a-two-day-heatwave-caused-near-doubling-of-quarterly-prices
  
• golden-moment-australias-biggest-wind-farm-becomes-first-to-reach-1-gw-of-output
  
• the-quiet-battery-what-household-batteries-reveal-about-flexibility-before-full-orchestration
  
• Chris Brack on are-australias-carbon-farming-schemes-just-hot-air-hardly-forests-are-regrowing-almost-everywhere
• Donna Lu on australia-rooftop-solar-panels-households-business
• Nick Toscano and Mike Foley on green-energy-is-shielding-australia-from-a-global-power-price-shock
• Timothy Neal and Ben Newell on climate-change-has-already-made-australians-in-one-state-much-poorer-and-mores-to-come
• Graham Readfearn on climate-crisis-science-emissions-good-news-corp-misrepresentation 
• Dennis Muller on a-right-mess-how-mining-media-and-politics-interests-are-combining-to-influence-public-debate-in-australia
• Alberto Meucci et al on good-news-for-renewables-southern-australias-offshore-winds-will-stay-strong-even-as-the-climate-changes

Northern America

• kruggers on comments-on-a-freaky-friday , a-gesture-of-contempt , money-and-machismo-are-undermining-america , breaking-the-heart-of-the-heartland , social-security-is-facing-a-political-crisis , elon-musk-human-ponzi-scheme
• David Frum on democrats-have-choose-between-character-and-power
• Hayes Brown on trump-irs-audit-ban-family-profits 
• Joshua Keating on trump-netanyahu-iran-war
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-israel-ukraine-war-foreign-policy , trump-iran-war-news-strikes-venezuela-oil
• the conversable economist on chair-jerome-powell-an-early-retrospective
• Michael Angeloni and Beau Tremitiere on year-later-military-personnel-police-american-streets
• Justin Glawe on trump-cognitive-impairment
• Noah Berlatsky on todd-blanche
• Stephen Robinson on trump-madness
• Dahlia Lithwick on todd-blanche-news-republicans-attorney-general-senate-hearing
• Clint Smith on black-military-patriots-hegseth
• John Quiggin on final-five-and-u-s-competitiveness
• dead for tax reasons on same-recession-opposite-jerseys
• Brad De Long on crosspost-renee-diresta-red-mirage-blue-shift-online-cope , so-far-inflations-return-limited-to-energy
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-trump-doj-disparate-impact
• noahpinion on insurers-arent-the-main-villain-of-the-US-healthcare-system
• Brad De Long on earnings-sentiment-or-this-is-nuts , crosspost-arindrajit-dube-a-minimum-wage-experiment-has-beeb-happening-for-over-a-decade
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-kbj-amy-coney-barrett-congress
• Quinta Jurecic on trump-doj-judges-lawfare
• Alex Tabarrok on here-comes-the-sunscreen

Europe

• Charles Lane on oosterhoff-netherlands-teen-euthanasia thanks nick
• Ian Hill on armenia-the-next-ukraine
• noahpinion on why-europe-should-put-up-trade-barriers
• Anne Applebaum on ukraine-war-momentum-shift
• mainly macro on trends-in-uk-inequality-and-poverty
• Indrees Kahloon on uk-productivity-economy-reform-party
• Chris Dillow on what-bond-market-constraint

Asia

• Brad De Long on hormuz-trump-and-the-140bbl-question
• Mehdi Hasan on uk-us-champion-free-speech-war-palestine
• Amin Saikal on iran-dragged-out-the-1979-hostage-crisis-to-humiliate-the-us-it-may-try-to-do-the-same-to-trump-now
• Peter Chai on as-japans-popularity-booms-a-new-survey-shows-strong-anti-foreigner-sentiment
• Seong-Hyon Lee on xi-s-visit-to-pyongyang-did-not-revive-denuclearisation-diplomacy-it-buried-it
• Henry Storey on china-s-industrial-policy-confronts-fiscal-reality
• Andrew Arsan on unmaking-the-middle-east-what-really-went-wrong
• Khang Vu on xi-draws-a-line-on-north-korea-s-alliance-demands

Wonk

• institutional economics on mind-the-gaps
• equality by lot on the-deliberative-transformation thanks nick
• Thomas Lambert on i-failed-as-a-novelist thanks nick
• Tim Harford on chatbots-make-stuff-up-why-do-we-believe-them-anyway
• Tyler Cowen on is-work-from-home-bad-for-your-mental-health
• Brad De Long on thoughts-springing-from-ronald-meek
• Marta Khomyn on as-spacex-openai-and-anthropic-plan-blockbuster-launches-will-it-make-ai-giants-more-accountable
• Al Hynes on actually-the-un-is-broken-and-that-s-exactly-why-reform-matters
• Francisco Trujillo on i-used-sound-waves-to-make-espresso-it-could-cut-coffee-brewing-energy-use-by-75
• Mick Ryan on modern-war-and-the-systemic-learning-deficit-in-western-military-institutions
• home and away on bombs-away
• noahpinion on are-you-finally-ready-to-admit-its-the-phones
• the conversable economist on geoeconomics-and-rethinking-the-logic-of-trade

General

• Anna Goldsworthy on love-sex-and-intimacy-in-the-time-of-ai

Climate

• David Appell on el-nino-is-coming-on-strong
• ocean acidification on assessing-recent-anthropogenic-carbon-dioxide-and-acidification-in-the-ross-sea-antarctica
• Javier Vide on a-very-strong-el-nino-may-be-approaching-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-worlds-weather
• open mind on acceleration-in-the-lower-troposphere
• Kareen McVeigh on un-world-ocean-assessment-severe-stress-sea-level-rise-doubles-pollution-fishing-climate
• Luke Bennetts et al on how-waves-ponds-and-green-algae-are-accelerating-sea-ice-melt-in-antarctica
• skeptical science on how-many-people-does-heat-kill
• Jonathan Watts on record-winter-temperatures-in-antarctic-raise-fears-over-speed-of-climate-breakdown
• Eva Plaganyi and Laura Blamey on climate-change-is-causing-fish-to-move-to-cooler-water-but-what-if-their-escape-route-is-blocked
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-004-from-april
• open mind on co2-good-news-and-bad-news
• Graham Readfearn on antarcticas-west-coast-missing-an-area-of-sea-ice-the-size-of-france-as-temperatures-peak-20c-above-average

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• when-is-detecting-ai-generated-text-worthwhile
  
• scott-alexander-as-a-modern-day-edmund-wilson
  
• steins-method-learning-and-inference-or-how-to-really-monitor-convergence-and-thin-chains 
  
• naming-a-jail-after-a-convicted-criminal 
  
• survey-statistics-should-mrp-workflow-include-loco-cv
  
• from-a-message-i-sent-to-a-potential-co-blogger
  
• the-data-analysts-guide-to-cause-and-effect
  
• adjusting-for-nonrepresentativeness-in-continuous-norming-using-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification
  
• jazz-and-quantum-mechanics-eventually-dmitri-realized-that-they-are-kind-of-similar
  
• statschat on small-modular
• econometric sense on who-is-john-galt-second-handedness-ai
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-49-the-risk-of-story-telling-with-data

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• machines-are-not-the-enemy
  

Vox Wonk

• market-implied-inflation-expectations-during-iran-shock 
  
• us-consumer-savings-shale-gas 
  
• making-sense-conflicting-labour-market-signals
  
• why-some-digital-payment-systems-replace-cash-and-others-dont
  
• fighting-misinformation-truth-why-mainstream-news-matters-social-media
  
• pension-funds-unlisted-firms-and-europes-capital-markets-union 
  
• increasing-employment-pre-retirement-years-slows-cognitive-decline
  
• when-private-insurance-buys-faster-access-public-care
  

The next administration has a hellva job reforming the DOJ

 The DOJ has been severely degraded un Trump 2.0

 They have lost regularity and have been found to lie before judges and conduct grand juries in an unlawful way. Indeed it would not be uncommon for charged people to ask to see grand jury transcripts or ask that a magistrate judge examine them. Quite clearly the Lindsay Halligan incident was NOT a one-off.

Apparently the DOJ have lost around 10,000 in either sackings or resignations. Things have got so bad the DOJ have to offer financial incentives just to gain new graduates. The quality of people in the DOJ has naturally declined.

I could go on but I have no need to. The AG and DAG in the nest admisitration has a lot to do to get back experienced personnel back to the DOJ and political hacks out of the department. There has to be a concerted push to have people whose primary asset is what they know NOT who they know!

the energy market is changing

 David Leitch has a great article out today. It shows how the wholesale market is changing. ( It also indirectly show how much better we are off by having so much renewable energy. Imagine where prices would be if the climate denialists had their way. just look at europe).

Commercial and household batteries are changing demand and price! 

will One Nation's vote continue right up to the election ?

 A lot of people are talking about the rise of one nation's vote in the polls.

Let us be accurate however . This has mainly come at the expense of the Liberals and Nationals. Thus the question is will those disillusioned voters remain with one nation or eventually go back to the LNP.

Before the rise we could make the wholly generalised statement that one nation voters were not that smart. They like Hansson because she was like them. not very smart and not very eloquent.

However one cannot make that statement of the punters who have gone to one nation recently. I think we can assume a few things. yes they know a lot of one nation's policies are stupid BUT it seems what they do like is the party is firm on their policies even if they are daft and not costed..

Will these people go back to the LNP or stay with one nation. It depends. Certainly thus far one nation is particularly poor when pressed on policies even when they are clearly soft interviews. one can only speculate on what would happen when the interview is not soft. Of course they may not occur.

We should also be cognisant about the poor procedures one nation has for examining candidates and staff. They also indulge in a lot of in-fighting.

I suspect if only a bit of this occurs then the former LNP voters or a  majority of them will return to the fold. Of course as my wife frequently tells me I could be wrong.

the King's honours list

 This is a complete joke. As Nick Gruen said a long time ago these awards are given to most people for simply doing their job. Isn't that why they were paid?

enough said

Around the Traps 5/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Gary Mortimer et al on supermarkets-back-to-the-future
• Kelly Hine et al public-trust-in-australian-police-is-declining-covid-sparked-it-but-theres-more-to-the-story
• Toni Brakin on payday-super-is-coming-on-july-1-workers-will-be-thousands-of-dollars-better-off-long-term 
• Jonathan Barrett on property-prices-budget-negative-gearing-capital-gains-investors
• Saul Eslake on house-prices-falling-australia-sydney-melbourne-good-housing-basic-human-need 
• John Buchanan on almost-3-million-workers-will-get-a-4-75-pay-rise-in-july-but-wages-cant-catch-up-with-inflation
• Albert Palazzo on australia-has-been-the-victim-of-an-aukus-bait-and-switch
• Adrian Westerman on how-flu-overtook-covid-as-australias-deadliest-respiratory-virus 
• Emily Foley et al on hansons-gas-policy-follows-the-far-right-playbook-attack-elites-and-push-for-drilling
• Patrick Commins on one-nation-norway-gas-tax-plan-pauline-hanson 
• Greg Jericho on australia-datacentres-destroying-jobs-climate-economy-gdp
• Stella Huangfu on australias-economy-slows-as-households-tighten-their-belts-while-ai-investment-surges 
• Mark the Graph on q1-2026-gdp-soft-quarter-above-potential-year 
• Dorini Pojani on kerbside-parking-is-great-for-drivers-but-terrible-for-everyone-else-could-we-get-rid-of-it
• Jennifer Parker on aukus-virginia-class-switch-is-a-fix-not-a-failure
• Chris Sidoti on australia-response-to-israel-legal-obligation

OZ Climate

• proposal-for-high-fixed-network-charges-is-wrong-on-home-batteries-dynamic-pricing-and-impact-on-cer 
  
• pogroms-american-style 
  
• australias-spent-billions-on-renewable-gases-with-little-to-show-this-is-how-to-do-it-properly
  
• new-1660-mwh-battery-reaches-full-output-but-it-may-soon-have-a-new-owner 
  
• spot-prices-along-the-journey-to-a-competitively-priced-coal-free-grid-but-we-still-need-a-lot-of-wind 
  
• whats-the-difference-between-a-four-hour-battery-and-an-eight-hour-battery-not-a-lot-it-turns-out 
  
• stop-taxing-the-transition-why-fixed-network-charges-get-consumer-energy-resources-all-wrong
  
• households-still-going-big-on-solar-and-storage-but-new-battery-rebate-settings-calm-red-hot-market 
  
• the-kardashev-scale-australias-staggering-energy-transition-and-its-untapped-opportunity 
  
• what-is-the-value-of-energy-efficiency-and-flexible-demand-a-new-tool-will-help-us-find-out 
  
• ai-giant-choose-australias-first-100-pct-net-renewable-grid-to-build-countrys-biggest-data-centre 
• Graham Readfearn on gas-usage-australia-structural-decline 
• Ben Jefferson on australias-spent-billions-on-renewable-gases-with-little-to-show-this-is-how-to-do-it-properly
• Michael Vardon on how-much-water-and-power-will-ai-data-centres-use-in-australia-ironically-we-dont-have-the-data-to-know

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on canada-imminnent-recession
• noahpinion on america-needs-liberal-nationalism-back , im-kind-of-over-the-whole-anti-monopoly-movement
• Hayes Brown on doj-grand-jury-charges-misconduct
• Brad De Long on when-median-take-home-pay-packets-rise-once-in-a-generation
• Kruggers onlearning-from-a-mentally-ill-president , pogroms-american-style , stop-your-chirping , trump-has-given-up , illegal-tariffs-round-3 , america-the-inessential-nation
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-weaponization-fund-suspended-republicans
• David Frum on bill-pulte-hayek 
• the conversable economist on does-leniency-for-first-offenders-pay-off 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gerrymandering-allen-milligan-alabama-republicans , todd-blanche-attorney-general-trump-goon
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on sonia-sotomayor-exposes-supreme-court-lies 
• Jonathan Chait on trump-superficiality
• Jeet Heer on trump-july-4th-fair-cancellations
• Barbara McQuade on bill-pulte-intelligence-nomination-trump

Europe

• Kruggers on europe-versus-america-a-response  
• Brad De Long on paul-krugman-qui-bono-and , the-viking-raager-further-gels 
• mainly macro on immigration-numbers-and-media
• Chris Dillow on fetishising-fiscal-rules

Asia

• Jared Modschein on is-the-quad-dying-a-slow-death-even-with-trump-it-still-has-a-vital-role-to-play
• Beth Spacey on israeli-forces-capture-lebanons-beaufort-castle-a-crusade-era-site-once-held-by-the-knights-templar
• Hunter Marston on shangri-la-washington-southeast-asia-talked-past-each-other
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-peace-talks-off-what-next
• Asher Kaufman on in-iran-wars-shadow-israels-renewed-lebanon-campaign-risks-repeating-failed-lessons-and-occupations-of-the-past 
• Michele Burgis-Kasthala on is-israel-planning-to-reoccupy-the-gaza-strip-this-is-whats-happening-behind-the-yellow-line 
• Amy Crew on anwar-s-coalition-is-fracturing-and-the-islamist-opposition-is-waiting 
• Piper French on to-break-the-siege-gaza-flotilla 
• Ishaan Tharoor on the-iran-war-and-the-end-of-the-middle-east

Wonk

• autopoesis on on-and-against-agency thanks nick
• Felix Martin on open-source-spectre-haunts-ai-feast thanks nick 
• Alex Crary on philosophy-in-the-time-of-techno-fascism thanks nick 
• institutional economics on immigration-and-living-standards
• Katherine Te on critical-minerals-west-learning-wrong-lesson-china 
• Tim Harford on rage-in-the-age-of-x
• Brad De Long on mike-beggs-zombie-marx-partial-reading, the-transformation-problem-was-not-something-marx-overlooked
• Nicholas Bryan on aukus-sees-the-sea-not-everyone-will
• noahpinion on how-much-more-software-do-we-really-need
• David Peetz on politicians-have-long-misunderstood-the-working-class-the-rise-of-the-far-right-shows-how-mistaken-they-have-been
• Evan Bloom on antarctic-diplomacy-hits-another-iceberg

General

• Russell Bicknell and Julien Kumig on 500-million-year-old-fossil-helps-fill-a-strange-gap-in-our-record-of-life-on-earth 
• Kovi Rose on mysterious-signals-keep-coming-from-space-we-have-found-their-rosetta-stone

Climate

• exponential view on the-rooftop-revolution thanks nick
• real climate on the-arctic-council-is-not-dead
• Sharkar Sharma et al on cities-are-making-it-rain-more-but-not-as-much-as-scientists-thought
• ocean acidification on tropical-cyclones-may-soon-flip-from-releasing-carbon-to-absorbing-it
• Mohammed Rahman on trees-and-greenery-can-cool-cities-by-as-much-as-18-c-but-only-if-theyre-the-right-type
• skeptical science on solar-wind-evs-knocked-out-rcp85
• Timothy Raupach and Steven Sherwood on climate-change-may-shift-hailstorms-towards-earths-poles-new-study
• Katherine Hendy on extreme-weather-is-making-antarctic-research-harder-but-new-technology-is-providing-some-answers-new-study

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 15-new-articles-on-statistical-workflow
  
• rationally-turbulent-expectations
  
• noems-razor-and-why-i-think-the-concept-of-unintended-consequences-is-overrated 
  
• hey-its-more-plausible-than-the-hyperloop-or-the-idea-that-ufos-are-space-aliens 
  
• survey-statistics-it-is-still-the-people 
  
• epidemiologist-donna-spiegelman-sez-sutva-is-mostly-not-necessary-for-valid-causal-estimation-and-inference-most-of-the-time
  
• against-shallow-humanism
  
• old-posts-on-the-monkey-cage-blog
  
• Kaiser Fung on rearranging-deck-chairs

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Alex Tabarrok on 80000-hours-the-book
• Greg Mankiw on what-ive-been-reading
• Tyler Cowen on the-republic-of-love

Vox Wonk

• impact-geopolitical-risk-euro-area-economy-past-experience-and-future-prospects 
  
• literature-support-and-capabilities-autonomous-research-agents 
  
• transatlantic-divide-labours-share-income 
  
• global-minimum-tax-more-winners-losers-even-without-us
  
• europe-suffers-not-so-much-flight-savings-insufficient-allocation-equities 
  
• european-public-goods-european-safe-asset-pragmatic-roadmap 
  
• new-coins-block-digital-currencies-and-financial-system 
  
• what-we-lose-when-women-do-not-get-tenure-evidence-natural-experiment 
  
• cheaper-machines-costlier-buildings-drag-long-run-growth
  
• why-post-pandemic-us-immigration-surge-barely-moved-inflation 
  
• not-all-foreign-exchange-reserves-are-created-alike 
  
• early-takeoff-space-innovation
  

A tale of two wars

 I am going to repeat myself but I think it is worth it.

Ukraine/Russia

Putin invaded Ukraine based on false information. Being a dictator he was told what people thought he wanted to hear. This meant the 'three day 'war was always going to be a failure. Putin also dallied into military decision making which ended in failure because he only has experience in intelligence not the military. He thought using the vast population of russia ( and other countries) would allow victory. Like everyone else he did not foresee Ukraine mastery of drones ( and continued innovation) and learning from its mistakes and continuing to use new and better tactics. Consequently Ukraine is regaining ground and the russians are running out of ammunition, supplies and food particularly in crimea. People are moving away in doves. Putin moves more defensive assets there and Ukraine attack in the holes left.Meanwhile Ukraine successfully attack oil refineries etc that reduces its income.

Russia appears to be in a position of not being able to win anymore BUT Putin battles on in the hope he still can.

USA/Iran

Yet again the USA has been foiled by a nation in a asymmetric war. trump thought this would be a cakewalk after capturing Madura. Although warned of problems they were never said in full voice because like Putin people say to him what they believe he wants to hear. The only way for trump to get the results he spoke of is by boots on the ground BUT that will never happen if only because of the political consequences.

When an ending comes it won't be good for trump.There is the irony. He di this to get a political boost and instead got the opposite!

some TV shows and a film

 First TV

Shetland

This was an excellent show. A police dram set in Shetland. funny how winter never appeared though however once Jimmy left it lost its main character and it simply aint the same. the female replacement is not likable and you end up yearning to see Jimmy again.

Elsbeth

This started out as a quirky crime series with an equally quirky character but it has withered into boring. One problem is she aint attractive but she ends up with not one but two chick magnets over the series. This was simply not believable.

Matlock

This started out well and I like Kathy Bates but I simply have not watched the second series as I am not interested.

now Films

Hostiles

This is a western but a different western. The main character  played brilliantly by Christian Bales has his values changed. Beware it is violent but well worth a view. It is nine years old as a film.

A couple of things Australian

 Socceroos

I was not surprised by the squad poppa picked but for the life of me ho is Okan a better player than Robertson. Injuries have hit us hard. unlike france our replacements are not as good. Boyle clearly has lost pace but then so has Mabil. I do have a few other players who should not be there such as Geria but they are. nevermind.

Against a Mexico not at full strength we let in a goal that should have been headed out and then proceeded to miss out on chanced created. We cannot do that in the world cup AND how is it we are easily in the hardest group of an enlarged world cup!

One Nation

they continue to surge. I wonder if any scrutiny will occur on their 'policies'. It doesn't appear so. Imagine if Albo had have employed an unrepentant convicted rapist . The media would have gone ape. When Hansson does it it is ho hum.

Housing Prices

they are falling which is a good thing on affordability grounds. however surely it is interest rates responsible for this. As the economy slows this will be exacerbated which again is a good thing.

The only other way to increase affordability is for wages to increase and you would need a wage explosion to do it and of course that would lead to increased interest rates. Oops

Violent Femmes

 not a big fan but I did like this

Around the Traps 29/5/26

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mathew Bowes on rising-rents-and-death-taxes-why-wild-claims-after-the-budget-dont-actually-make-sense 
• Natalie Peng on this-little-known-scheme-can-help-first-home-buyers-save-thousands-more-for-a-deposit-with-less-tax 
• Mark the Graph on australias-productivity-slump , gdp-nowcast-update
• Kevin Bonham on begging-for-debunking-silly-article-re-stafford-preferences
• Dominic Ahiago-Dagbui on to-avoid-future-road-rail-and-renewable-blowouts-costing-billions-australia-needs-these-3-big-fixes 
• Adrian Esterman on why-diphtheria-whooping-cough-and-measles-have-come-back-in-australia 
• Dennis Muller on one-nations-banning-of-the-abc-and-abuse-of-journalists-is-shameful-its-time-other-media-took-a-stand 
• Michelle Grattan on controversy-ridden-nacc-chief-paul-brereton-quits-two-years-short-of-his-terms-end 
• Peter McDonald on australia-has-a-problem-with-migration-the-liberals-policy-approach-will-do-nothing-to-fix-it
• Lisa Singh and Toshar Joshi on canberra-should-keep-close-watch-colombo-security-conclave
• Paul Chamberlain on shipbuilding-statecraft-real-test-australia-s-mogami-deal 
• Greg Jericho on australia-budget-reactions-ndis-changes-disabilities-biggest-cuts-dental-ignored
• Gabrielle Appleby and William Partlett on we-need-a-new-anti-corruption-commissioner-heres-how-to-pick-the-right-one
• Luci Ittimani and Josh Butler on most-young-australians-better-off-under-labor-reforms-cgt-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-treasury-modelling
• Jeff Sparrow on how-to-sell-a-genocide-exposes-the-double-standards-of-reporting-on-gaza

OZ Climate

• Christian Jacob et al on csiro-is-cutting-climate-science-jobs-this-is-whats-at-stake-for-australia 
• Adam Morton on bhp-climate-promises-slash-emissions-global-solutions
• Tony Wood on why-are-retail-power-prices-finally-falling 
• Ray Wills and Peter Newman on for-44-years-australia-has-subsidised-diesel-use-is-it-time-to-stop
• australias-biggest-wind-project-and-8-battery-hybrids-among-19-winners-of-largest-renewable-auction-to-date
  
• fortescue-starts-construction-of-australias-biggest-solar-farm-outside-main-grid-and-giant-eight-hour-battery
  
• australia-rockets-to-third-largest-big-battery-market-in-world-as-solar-and-wind-hit-decade-low 
  
• electricity-bills-to-fall-even-further-than-predicted-in-state-as-renewables-share-nears-50-pct 
  
• bowen-looks-to-data-centres-to-get-struggling-wind-projects-over-the-line-as-new-report-warns-of-energy-vampires 
  
• up-is-not-down-bhp-in-spotlight-as-epic-decarbonisation-walk-back-revealed 
  
• how-a-wind-and-battery-hybrid-could-replace-a-coal-plant-and-outperform-it-at-almost-every-level
  
• we-need-to-reframe-the-grid-discussion-from-system-strength-to-system-behaviour
  
• 1-million-cheaper-how-avoiding-landfill-slashed-the-cost-of-decommissioning-this-wind-farm
  
• no-sense-one-year-on-queenslands-strict-new-renewables-rules-still-baffle-developers-and-councils
  
• byo-energy-for-data-centres-it-should-be-more-like-byonce-and-make-it-additional

Northern America

• noahpinion on america-is-heading-for-a-debtpocalypse , are-you-tired-of-the-trump-era-yet
• Kruggers on curing-us-healthcare-part-iii-the-future, the-dumpster-fire-of-the-vanities ,texass-senate-race-will-be-a-referendum-on-healthcare , unlocked-repost-curing-us-health-part2 , whos-deranged-exactly
• John Cassidy on can-anything-stop-trumps-corruption
• James Horncastle on trumps-largely-negotiated-truce-with-iran-exposes-a-deeper-crisis-in-u-s-strategic-thinking
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-civil-service-thomas-barrett-margolin-mspb , supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-race-jury-pitchford-cain
• Aziz Huq on trump-immunity-news-todd-blanche-not-genius
• Tom Nicholls on american-ambassadors-trump-vacancies 
• dead for tax reasons on thirty-seven-words-that-could-break-this-country-a-brexit-remainers-letter-home
• the conversable economist on how-medicare-and-medicaid-rely-on-private-health-insurance
• Hayes Brown on doj-grand-jury-charges-misconduct
• Richard Nimijean on why-mark-carney-is-pushing-fortress-north-america-amid-deep-canadian-distrust-of-the-u-s
• David Cole on trump-v-trump-anti-weaponization-fund
• Liz Dye on broadview-6-case-misconduct
• Zack Beauchamp on e-jean-carroll-investigation-doj-trump-authoritarian
• Aaron Blake on e-jean-carroll-trump-retribution 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-drezner-the-trump-administrations-incredibly-slow-learning-curve
• Lisa Rubin on if-doj-is-investigating-e-jean-carroll-the-facts-could-stand-in-its-way 

Europe

• Mark Thomas et al on defensive constitutional reform Thanks Nick
• exponential view on ukraine-seven-day-drone-advantage Thanks Nick
• silicon continent on european-stagnation-is-real Thanks Nick
• Adam Simpson on the-far-right-is-surging-in-france-germany-and-parts-of-europe-what-will-this-mean-for-ukraine 
• Phillips O'Brien on putin-lost-control-russia 
• mainly macro on new-ideas-from-labour-on-economic-policy

Asia

• Isel Van Zhyl on china-s-influence-africa-no-longer-just-economic
• Premesha Saha on can-quad-keep-momentum-without-leaders-summit 
• Karryl Trajano and Ysa Cayabyab on asean-isn-t-yet-ready-ai-agent-swarm
• Robert Kagan on trump-surrender-iran-endgame 
• Isaac Chotiner on why-any-plausible-iran-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-trump 
• Seong Hyon-Lee on why-xi-jinping-going-pyongyang
• Mark the Graph on update-on-iran-war
• Michelle Burgess-Kasthala on trump-cant-sell-the-abraham-accords-on-a-middle-east-that-has-lost-trust-in-the-us
• Hamideh Mohammadi and Ali Abasi on how-iran-uses-billboards-as-wartime-propaganda-we-selected-5-to-explain-what-they-mean
• Jesslene Lee on rcep-s-moment-matter
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-russia-china

Wonk

• institutional economics on whats-not-to-like-about-rising-bond-yields 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-davies-meet-the-new-economy-just-like-the-old-economy , big-trouble-in-little-human-genetic-difference-worshipper-land , reading-joan-robinson-an-open-letter-from-a-keynesian-to-a-marxist
• notes from the circus on the-capital-is-misaligned-and-the-crash-is-coming Thanks Nick
• Shannon Bosch on taunting-and-degrading-civilians-in-armed-conflict-is-a-clear-violation-of-international-law 
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , inflation-targeting-vs-ngdp-targeting
• Tim Harford on science-in-the-shadow-of-the-third-reich 
• the conversable economist on agricultural-production-functions-without-prices , simone-weil-on-education-and-attention
• Kevin Morrison on 4-reasons-the-largest-energy-crisis-on-record-has-been-held-at-bay-and-why-theres-pain-to-come 
• Nick Haslam on what-is-trauma-the-more-we-talk-about-it-the-more-it-means
• Tyler Cowen on the-corporate-tax-rate-really-matters , a-beautiful-theory-falls-to-ugly-data
• noahpinion on your-future-job-will-be-to-keep-ai-on-task
• Nengye Lui on if-antarctic-treaty-system-started-special-family-what-kind-family-it-today

General

• Colin Caprani and Scott Menegon on how-the-great-pyramid-of-giza-has-survived-4-500-years-of-egyptian-earthquakes
• Dennis Altman on errol-flynns-biographer-calls-him-the-greatest-heartthrob-of-his-time-but-racist-and-a-rapist-too
• Richard Brady on the-revolutionary-force-of-sonny-rollins
• Richard Worth on miles-daviss-kind-of-blue-is-the-highest-selling-jazz-record-of-all-time-he-thought-it-was-a-failure

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on rcp8-5-update
• Kevin Trenberth on the-network-watching-the-worlds-oceans-is-under-pressure-just-when-its-needed-most 
• Bryan Walsh on climate-change-coal-solar-renewable-power 
• ocean acidification on carbon-allocation-strategy-of-thalassiosira-weissflogii-in-response-to-elevated-pco2 , a-review-of-volcanic-activity-and-the-evolution-of-coral-reefs
• skeptical science on rcp-85-update , death-of-rcp85 , new_research
• Andrew King on scientists-have-scrapped-the-worst-case-climate-scenario-because-action-is-making-a-difference 
• Jonathan Mingle on our-climates-wild-card-into-the-clear-blue-sky

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• differences-between-crackdowns-on-dissent-now-and-in-the-early-cold-war-period 
  
• the-humans-are-imperfect-reporters-too-defense-for-ascribing-little-thoughts-to-machines 
  
• physics-fraud-compared-to-fraud-and-junk-science-in-the-social-and-behavioral-sciences 
  
• how-much-skill-is-in-skill-games-there-cant-be-much 
  
• survey-statistics-double-plus-robustness
  
• no-bayes-does-not-like-mayor-pete-pitfalls-of-using-implied-betting-market-odds-to-estimate-electability
  
• statistical-analysis-recapitulates-the-development-of-statistical-methods
  
• what-if-scientists-really-were-dispassionate-observers-communicating-ideas-without-irrational-commitment-look-here-says-ai
  
• what-if-scientists-really-were-dispassionate-observers-communicating-ideas-without-irrational-commitment-look-here-says-ai
  
• the conversable economist on agricultural-production-functions-without-prices
• Kaiser Fung on with-editing-power-comes-responsibility , the-beef-on-beef
• freakometrics on surveys without respondents 
• statschat on dirty-comparisons

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• may-reading-roundup
  
• the defensive symphony on and-i-will-undertake-all-these-to-teach Thanks Nick
• stoat on book-review-allegory-of-love
• Greg Mankiw on what-ive-been-reading
• Joel Eissenberg on mr-jeffersons-lost-cause-a-book-review
• Andrew Gelman on the-ten-year-affair 
• Tyler Cowen on how-to-win-a-trade-war-an-optimistic-guide-to-an-anxious-global-economy , what-ive-been-reading , how-to-win-a-trade-war-an-optimistic-guide-to-an-anxious-global-economy

Vox Wonk

• emotional-content-influences-opinions-more-facts-evidence-large-scale-experiment 
  
• openness-vulnerability-mapping-eus-foreign-dependencies-and-geopolitical-exposure 
  
• financial-stability-age-artificial-intelligence-role-algorithmic-architecture 
  
• more-resilient-europe-faces-renewed-energy-shock-difficult-trade-offs-may-resurface 
  
• corporate-net-zero-targets-neither-greenwashing-nor-gamechanger
  
• industrial-policy-tariffs-and-return-global-imbalances 
  
• inefficient-pricing-news 
  
• word-not-enough-testing-effects-information-treatments-perceived-corruption-ukraine 
  
• global-trade-linkages-and-cross-country-distribution-gains-ai
  

Gerard Henderson update

 Our mate Gerry is up to more news.

He does not like people referring to Trump as authoritarian because he was elected. Hmm Germany between the wars or hungary under Orban anyone.

He still hates people being interviewed on the ABC being interrupted despite them either not answering the question or answering another question. Even when they interrupt albo it shows bias. It is different you know!

We got to know one nation's rise in the polls was due to the bondi massacre. Naturally no evidence was produced.

He did not like Sarah Ferguson having a go at Tim Wilson for looking at his notes. Now our Gerry was chief of staff to john howard so he knows looking at notes is the sign of a poorly prepared politician. ( howard was famous for having no notes at an interview!) so he clearly knows better.

He does not see a problem in one nation banning the ABC from news conferences.

He does like people at the ABC and is forever saying they are sneering or condescending. This from a man who calls any ABC journalist comrade! glasshouses anyone!

We should also add our Gerry has no problem in banning holocaust deniers  ( like David Irving) from visiting Australia but is silent on those who deny the armenian genocide.

Whoopsy I should ad two more bewdys.

He didn't like some of the women coming here from Syria. He claimed they were members of ISIS. Actually they are alleged members  since it has not been proven in court Gerry and sine you have a law degree you know that as well.

He also thinks people are either left wing or right wing. None of this on the scentre got our Gerry and of course he defines them often 'ahem' controversially!

Ukraine

One interesting development in this war is how Ukraine has completely tied up crimea. Ukraine drones have made roadkill of trucks transporting ammunition, oil, food etc on the M14. All the ferries are unusable and the Kerch bridge is standing but no truck can drive over it because of the damage. It is interesting Ukraine has not destroyed the bridge because they can.

Ukraine has destroyed most of the radar system in  crimea. This means it is much easier to destroy airfields, planes, tanks etc in crimea as well as allowing ukraine to have drone sorties into russia through this area.

Russia has a strong heartfelt feeling towards crimea. This is why they have not given up any territory there. They are transferring valuable resources to crimea from other areas which ukraine note and then attacks.

In normal times russia would sue for peace to keep crimea and well before people start getting out of there. Like Trump with Iran, Putin will not be able to explain such a peace deal and he cannot afford to have people from crimea fleeing the place.

I suspect without any expertise that Putin has to continue the war in the hope he will eventually win. He will not get accurate information only information his subordinates thinks he wants to hear. This is the problem a dictator has. Putin's background is in intelligence not the military hence his numerable mistakes in the war.

How will it all end? I suspect Putin will be replaced at some time. Perhaps his successor will bring tol ight how much he has stolen from his people. How does a former KGB officer end up a billionaire with multiple country estates?

We shall see

Noah on the ball

 Not much time today so I will highlight Noah Smith's latest article at noahpinion ( get it!).

I am sick of the rain. Is it King Charles reign?

A number of things

 One Nation.

 It seems they continue to surge. It also seems I was right. Both the Liberals and Nationals in particular would be decimated.It is still a long time until the next election and thus far one nation has been treated as a giggle party in that they have no sensible policies. They do not appear thus far to be hit by any scandals. Hanson can employ a convicted and unrepentant rapist yet nothing happens. Perhaps because in softball interviews which she favours she is not asked about it! Will this continue? I must admit I do not know.

Clearly she has no idea about immigration even when the questioner is confused. Ah yes Kenny interviewing Hanson.

Just a little bit more on this after talking to some friends. One Nation only talks to friendly journos where no hard questions are given, They bar the ABC from any press conferences. This is untenable in the long term. for example their immigration policy if you can call it that is horrible for regional cities. David farley acknowledged this in the Farrer by-election but then retreated. One Nation is hopeless at doing any due diligence on staff or candidates. Hanson is ugly, looks in her 80s when she is in her 70s and is stupid. This will eventually come through. In a campaign it will be either a lot of gaffes or a person who is anything but natural. In addition plenty of people such as Joyce or Farley wil think they should be leader rather than her BUT she has a lot of authoritarian tendencies. 

2PP

Kevin Bonham skews yet another attempt to discredit 2PP. Who would have thunk the IPA does not know what it talking about!

Ukraine

I thought I would make a small point. Ukraine only targets military targets. russia doesn't because they are both lazy and cruel and do not care about war crimes. Ukraine has made crimea almost undefendable because of this. ( check out Ben hodges on youtube he is the best on the war.) They won't invade crimea but they doo not have to; Ukraine is winning the war and Putin wil ldemand belarus help him.

Personal stuff

I recently had cataracts out. It is costly. I only need glasses for reading now and need new ones!. It is expensive for anyone thinking about it. I also had cancer taken out of my right ear. You need to look very closely to see the difference.

Around the Traps 22/5/26

 It is time again  for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Daniel Reeders on the-ndiss-original-sin Thanks Nick 
• Jonathan O'Brien on budget-2026 Thanks Nick
• Saul Eslake on why-labor-is-right-about-tax-and-housing Thanks Nick , death-tax-startups-and-a-rent-spike-its-time-to-correct-misleading-claims-about-labors-budget
• Mark the Graph on the-federal-budget-in-pictures , housing-shortages-and-the-elasticity-of.housing-demand, why-is-aussie-dollar-so-strong
• Mark the Ballot on the-slow-death-of-2pp , polling-update
• David Lee on australia-has-had-game-changer-budgets-before-how-does-chalmers-stack-up 
• Jason Nassios and Beth Webster on the-tax-changes-in-the-budget-only-scratch-the-surface-here-are-4-reforms-australia-needs-next 
• Tamara Wilkinson on are-this-budgets-tax-changes-really-an-assault-on-aspiration 
• Greg Jericho on labor-budget-changes-death-taxes-scare-campaigns-truth
• John Hopkins on 15-australian-companies-switched-to-a-four-day-work-week-it-went-surprisingly-well 
• Kevin Bonham on pre-and-post-budget-federal-poll-roundup 
• Josh Butler and Patrick Commins on australia-budget-labor-trust-changes-is-it-a-death-tax-explained

OZ Climate

• remarkable-milestone-bowen-says-home-battery-installations-continue-to-surge-pass-400000 
  
• australias-biggest-solar-farm-enjoys-less-curtailment-but-lower-prices-as-big-battery-starts-commissioning 
  
• state-green-lights-plan-for-australias-biggest-wind-farm-with-219-turbines-and-two-big-batteries 
  
• v2g-explainer-safety-and-the-current-state-of-turning-electric-cars-into-batteries-on-wheels 
  
• nsw-launches-its-biggest-ever-renewable-tender-to-kehttps://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-launches-its-biggest-ever-renewable-tender-to-keep-lights-on-and-push-down-prices/ep-lights-on-and-push-down-prices 
  
• its-not-rocket-science-were-obsessed-with-data-centres-but-the-easy-solution-is-the-way-we-heat-buildings 
  
• cannon-brookes-bankrolls-one-biggest-batteries-in-the-world-in-huge-bet-on-thermal-storage 
  
• some-of-australias-dirtiest-coal-mines-are-about-to-change-hands-heres-why-we-should-be-worried 
  
• when-the-grid-and-home-batteries-teach-consumers-to-withdraw-from-the-market
  
• Graham Readfearn on can-electric-trucks-win-over-australias-fossil-fuel-die-hards-or-is-diesel-here-for-the-long-haul 
• Petra Stock on fracking-south-australia-limestone-coast-peter-malinauskas-labor-broken-promise
• Juan Afsano and Heather Handley on geothermal-2-0-how-superhot-rocks-underground-could-help-power-australia
• Graeme Readfearn on one-nation-pauline-hanson-australia-questions-climate-science

Northern America

• Kruggers on g-elliott-morris-on-vibes-and-the-midterms, the-looting-of-america, from-dropping-bombs-to-dropping-bonds, a-whiff-of-stagflation
• Jeremiah Johnson on hasan-piker-china-cuba-authoritarian-leftist-socialism Thanks Nick 
• Fred Kaplan on trump-china-xi-jinping-summit-taiwan-what-happened, trump-iran-war-nuclear-reason-why
• Will Lockett on starship-is-going-nowhere thanks Brad
• Bill Haskell on five-charts-numerics-and-some-explanation-on-home-ownership-in-the-united-states
• Jonathan Lemire on aging-president-trump-health
• Alexandra Andhov and Ian Murray on elon-musk-sued-openai-and-lost-but-the-core-question-of-the-case-remains-unanswered 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-voting-rights-act-mostly-dead
• Jonathan Chait on trump-anti-weaponization-fund-january-6 
• newdeal democrat on the-bond-market-is-sending-a-message 
• Tyler Cowen on wokeness-has-peaked-what-followed-is-worse
• the conversable economist on a-foretaste-of-warsh-as-chair-of-the-federal-reserve
• Liz Dye on trump-weaponization-fund
• Jeet Heer on thomas-massie-primary-loss-trump-aipac, trump-economy-iran
• Mary McCord on domestic-terrorism-nspm-7-counterterrorism-strategy
• silver bulletin on disney-erased-fivethirtyeight thanks Brad 
• Jordan Rubin on judge-dismisses-kilmar-abrego-garcias-criminal-indictment-trump-doj

Europe

• Mark Beeson on starmers-troubles-may-be-self-inflicted-but-voters-everywhere-are-fed-up-with-leaders-lacking-courage 
• noahpinion on yes-europeans-are-poorer-than-americans
• Kruggers on europe-versus-america-a-wonkish-data-followup, challenging-the-narrative-of-european-decline-free-report
• Gorana Grgic on nato-would-survive-a-us-withdrawal-but-what-kind-of-alliance-would-it-become 
• Mainly Macro on why-labours-current-disarray-is-the-result-of-osbornes-austerity 
• Fiona Harvey on uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns
• Alex Nurse on andy-burnham-what-has-made-the-king-of-the-north-so-popular
• Brad De Long on crosspost-mark-koyama-nick-crafts

Asia

• Clive Schofield on thailand-and-cambodia-are-bickering-over-their-borders-again-can-diplomacy-prevent-a-return-to-war 
• Bernard Avishai on benjamin-netanyahus-war-at-home 
• the conversable economist on is-china-blocking-developing-economies
• Mohd Yunis on haze-over-southeast-asia-clouds-more-sky
• Adi Imsirovic on is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-the-oil-world 
• Jing Ge on japan-s-quiet-test-china-diplomacy 
• Isaac Chotiner on the-gaza-peace-plan-has-gone-nowhere
• Rushali Saha on assassination-plot-clouds-india-s-intelligence-ambitions

Wonk

• institutional economics on one-way-or-another 
• Steve Waldman on the-fiduciary-class Thanks Nick
• paroxysms on struggling-with-shakespeare Thanks Nick
• Robert Gilles on economic-mythology-part-1-what-money-is-not Thanks Nick
• Wesley Widmaier on after-an-opaque-summit-china-and-the-us-want-to-work-together-again-that-might-not-be-good-news-for-the-world 
• Tim Harford on betting-on-risk-changes-the-world 
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update
• Timothy Graham et al on the-market-moves-before-trump-posts
• Thomas Jeffries on what-you-need-to-know-about-the-ebola-outbreak-that-has-the-who-concerned
• noahpinion on all-non-drone-militaries-are-obsolete , roundup-82-staring-in-wonder-at-the-world
• the conversable economist on how-is-ai-affecting-the-quantity-and-quality-of-new-books 
• Michael Brennan on where-have-all-the-fiscal-hawks-gone-we-need-to-find-some-and-quickly 
• Raina MacIntyre on health-authorities-are-racing-to-contain-ebola-in-the-drc-and-uganda-heres-whats-making-it-so-challenging 
• Mark Pierce on exit-pursued-voters
• Calvin Ackley et al on productivity in the healthcare industry Thanks Tyler
• home and away on once-upon-a-time-in-china
• Alex Tabarrok on the-ais-are-one-of-us-now

General

• David Pritchard on what-is-the-thucydides-trap-xi-warned-trump-about-lessons-from-an-ancient-war-between-athens-and-sparta 
• Oscar Vorobjovas-Pinta on how-public-voting-has-turned-eurovision-from-a-song-contest-into-a-political-platform
• noahpinion on dating-advice-for-men
• Jorgo Ristevski et al on 129-000-years-of-crocodiles-what-we-know-about-australasias-ancient-apex-predators
• Chris Kirkland and Anthony Clarke on rare-567-million-year-old-fossils-refine-our-understanding-of-early-animal-evolution

Climate

• Joshua Hill on coal-pollution-is-significantly-reducing-the-output-of-solar-panels-leading-study-finds 
• ocean acidification on large-scale-atmospheric-circulation-and-its-impact-on-the-baltic-sea-region-controls-predictability-and-consequences 
• renew economy on from-hockey-sticks-to-ev-fires-the-circular-economy-of-climate-disinformation
• skeptical science on five-things-el-nino-comeback
• Eric Holthaus on marine-heatwave-west-coast

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-are-there-squares-everywhere-in-statistics-normal-variance 
  
• if-books-could-kill-podcast
  
• whats-the-definition-of-a-professional-career-2 
  
• mrplew-locally-equivalent-weights-for-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification 
  
• 19/j 
  
• survey-statistics-greg 
  
• what-do-i-think-about-that-proposed-arxiv-policy-to-ban-authors-of-papers-with-ai-slop 
  
• the-quick-fix-why-fad-psychology-cant-cure-our-social-ills
  
• dont-cite-sources-you-havent-read-and-dont-trust-when-people-claim-to-be-reporting-something-from-the-literature
  
• junk charts on updating-the-unemployment-chart

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , in-the-realm-of-the-last-man

vox wonk

• mapping-household-level-transmission-monetary-policy 
  
• foreign-currency-funding-risk-and-global-financial-stability 
  
• immigrant-integration-europe-progress-without-full-convergence 
  
• macroeconomics-tariffs-global-production-and-finance-networks 
  
• devil-tail-how-firms-beliefs-about-rare-macroeconomic-disasters-shape-investment 
  
• skipping-factory-service-led-growth-sub-saharan-africa 
  
• measuring-capital-account-openness-why-intensity-matters 
  
• when-energy-shocks-bite-harder-non-linear-inflation-dynamics
  
• smarter-approach-electricity-rationing
  
• state-contingent-debt-premia-may-be-lower-you-think 
  
• beyond-borders-within-societies-inequality-and-global-transmission-us-monetary-policy