US polity

 

Trump changing planes

Trump changed planes because the secret service thought there was a real threat to the 747 if flown so he left in secret but left other people as decoys. How Iran could maintain a threat when they clearly cannot bring down planes in Iran is a mystery. I would assume the secret service was being very conservative.

Vaccines

Trump via Kennedy wants to make kids weaker if not dying  from diseases because they believe conspiracy theories.

See Kruggers yes Kruggers and Braithwaite. When idiots are in command and people believe them this is what you get. Measles anyone!

Polls

I see a candidate in a democratic primary who was a bit of a whacko and who was supposed to win in a canter lost a close race. Hmm.

Blanche

He was disgracelly confirmed as A/G. He was responsible for a person getting a vindictive prosecution. He also patently lied about witness and proof in the 8647 case against comey. He signed off that the trumps would get life time immunity from the Taxation office. He was Trump's personal lawyer so it was a clear conflict of interest.

Leavitt leaving

Trump has to find a new press secretary. She has told people she prays before every news conference. Hmm so why did she lie about say foreign countries paying tariffs or democrats supporting hamas or even just criminals. When you make claims that christianity rules your life then you make darkness not light if you do not own up to sin. We all do it but politics highlights it bigtime.

the melons issue is a load of old cobblers

 I eventually saw Albo talking about the melons . (If you do not know about this than read THIS).

This is a non-issue. A person who uses hands to talk about a woman's breasts cups them. He does not hold them sideways as you do making a point. If it was it would not have taken news limited 6 weeks to discover it. The former Japanese ambassador has form about disliking the ALP and the pictures simply do not support him. his 'interview' last night with Chris Kenny was embarrassing.

Now I am no fan of albo as I want him replaced but there are fair dinkum issues to criticise him on not this manufactured one.

Talking about Chris Kenny we again saw his lack of knowledge on a topic. He was claiming the pro-Palestinian marches was connected to the bondi massacre. Thus just for him and other ignoramuses HEre is a summary of their ideology. Notice they like to kill apostates. Like say shia muslims as most muslims are in Gaza. Of course killing christians would be a bonus. If as the authorities say the murderers were \ highly influenced by ISIS then ....

People who conflate pro-Palestinians protests with the bondi murders are liars, ignorant or deliberately conflating the two topics.

some good news and bad news on climate

 the bad news

• global-seas-hottest-temperature-july-scientists
  
•  can-the-searing-european-summer-put-climate-action-back-on-the-agenda-or-will-disaster-response-take-over

the good news

• reef-relief-how-a-late-summer-monsoon-helped-cool-the-great-barrier-reef-at-just-the-right-time
  

Australian Polity

 Polls

Do we have too many polls. Good question. We do have too many people who do not understand basic stats. When I was younger it was a given by both parties people did not get  'involved in elections until just before the election.

Okay it used to be thought polling this far out from the election would be said to be more like a by-election. I will concede however it might be different this time.

Gambling

I said before Albo is weak on this. He is because he is PM. they want to win elections and thus not get people or 'influential' lobbies offside. In other worse he wants both the NRL and AFL onside. I am surprised by the Opposition on this topic. Lets hope it continues. Gambling is an evil. If you could make money from it there would not be any gambling companies. Everyone should do the introductory statistics tutorial I did when they examined the probability of winning money from all forms of gambling!

Tim Wilson

I confess I have never had time for him. He usually lacks basic understanding of the topic he is talking about. Making him shadow treasurer was a 'courageous' decision. He has been lucky a lot of his mistakes have been missed.Let us examine three he has talked about recently. He criticises the level of government spending. yet he has criticised attempts to bring the NDIS under control. 

He has also alleged corruption on the part of the government yet has been very vague about what the sd corruption is.

He has also said he would cut a lot of tax levels and this would involve a lot of money yet he refuses to nominate where he would cut  this large amount of spending.

Data Centres

One interesting thing I found over the weekend was Mark Zandi saying data centres are contributing to inflationary pressures. Why anyone  would want data centres to be powered by gas or coal instead of renewables when they are far more costly!!

Roy Buchanan

Roy Buchanan was truly one of the great guitarists.

For those who have rarely heard him here are two examples.

First Hey Joe ( terrible singing)

 and now Green Onions

Around the Traps 7/8/26

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Frank Bongornio on australian-twilight-liberal-swansong Thanks Nick
• Bernard Keane on the-case-for-a-blatantly-discriminatory-australian-voting-system 
• Jane Younger on the-warning-signs-are-over-australia-now-faces-a-devastating-bird-flu-outbreak-in-wildlife
• Liz Allen on from-flushing-our-toilets-to-building-new-schools-this-is-why-filling-in-your-census-form-matters
• Marja Taflaga et al on change-or-die-how-the-liberal-partys-long-resistance-to-reform-has-left-it-fighting-for-life
• Eugene Schofield-Georgeson on yet-another-cfmeu-royal-commission-wont-solve-much-until-we-learn-from-the-past
• Peter Greste on pauline-hanson-has-knocked-another-brick-out-of-our-creaky-political-system-its-not-good-for-anybody
• John Woinarski et al on powerless-against-bird-flu-not-entirely-here-are-8-ways-to-help-protect-australias-birds-and-mammals
• Dennis Muller on media-and-political-complacency-is-letting-pauline-hanson-re-write-the-rules-on-accountability
• Sally Larsen on the-biggest-news-from-naplan-2026-the-results-arent-really-better-or-worse
• Ross Gittins on stop-complaining-australia-s-in-good-economic-shape-mostly
• Saul Eslake on house-prices-falling-australia-housing-market-sydney-melbourne
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-says-rate-rises-dont-really-increase-living-costs-but-the-data-is-clear-they-very-much-do 
• Yuting Zhang et al on health-insurance-rebates-may-change-for-the-over-65s-our-new-study-shows-what-to-expect
• Blair Williams on pauline-hanson-was-once-dubbed-queen-of-the-mens-rights-movement-her-30-year-career-shows-why
• Anna Fifield on new-zealand-s-winston-peters-falls-flat
• Antony Green on the-record-of-late-term-succession-premiers
• Matteo Vergano and Fiona Allison on what-three-million-online-posts-reveal-about-anti-first-nations-hate-in-australia
• Milad Haghadi et al on big-us-style-trucks-are-killing-more-pedestrians-in-australia-our-research-proves-it

OZ Climate

• David Moretto on batteries-shift-energy-they-dont-create-it Thanks Nick
• Graham Readfearn on the-great-net-zero-debate-was-anything-but-so-beware-coalition-claims-of-renewables-taking-over-two-tasmanias
• Michelle Ward et al on australia-has-pledged-to-restore-nature-but-could-we-ever-bring-back-lost-ecosystems
• reports-of-offshore-winds-demise-have-been-greatly-exaggerated-but-in-australia-its-still-far-from-a-sure-thing
  
• its-time-to-switch-it-on-how-to-unlock-a-commercial-rooftop-pv-power-station-equal-to-10-coal-plants
  
• labors-flagship-renewable-energy-scheme-has-not-worked-its-time-to-replace-the-cis-with-a-cfd
  
• from-crisis-to-capability-lessons-from-denmark-on-how-to-quit-fossil-fuels
  
• a-very-real-risk-of-breaking-councils-demand-solar-recycling-as-they-face-avalanche-of-panels-into-landfills
  
• a-new-oil-refinery-commissioned-in-the-mid-2030s-is-just-burning-money-that-makes-emissions
  
• renewables-and-electrification-help-build-farm-resilience-amidst-the-fuel-and-fertiliser-crisis
  
• solar-rebates-extended-to-megawatt-systems-as-bowen-seeks-to-supercharge-missing-middle
  
• rooftop-solars-record-run-continues-as-battery-charged-pv-market-chalks-up-biggest-half-year-ever
  
• australia-will-not-hit-82-pct-renewables-by-2030-bnef-says-despite-record-solar-and-battery-investment
  
• bowen-says-coal-isnt-baseload-any-more-its-unreliable-threatens-states-pushing-gas-for-data-centres
  
• as-musk-plans-to-send-ai-into-orbit-bowen-positions-australia-to-be-an-earth-based-data-superpower
  
• home-battery-sizes-shrink-by-half-after-rebate-changes-but-installation-bonanza-continues
  
• energyaustralia-looks-to-future-of-coal-generator-sites-as-results-hit-by-low-prices-and-customer-losses
  

Northern America 

• institutional economics on open-mouth-operations-the-case-for-more-forward-guidance-not-less 
• Brad De Long on crosspost-dan-davies-the-mgm-affair, partial-crosspost-mike-brock-the-house-of-ellison-is-on-the-brink , crosspost-dan-froomkin-the-reflecting-pool-story-is-about-trump's-grip-on-reality-but-the-press-won't go-there , crosspost-lyz-lenz-who-will-you-blame-when-they-(the haitian immigrants)-are-gone
• becoming noble on young-adults-are-poor-despite-every-metric-suggesting-otherwise Thanks Nick
• Kevin Levin on why-lindsey-graham-abandoned-the-confederate-flag
• James Hamilton on gdp-continues-modest-growth 
• Menzie Chinn on pecking-order-and-ai-capex-spending
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-s-short-war-is-spiralling-out-of-control-his-personal-failings-were-the-trigger
• Andrew Prokop on aipac-michigan-senate-el-sayed-stevens 
• noahpinion on slopulism-is-taking-over-america , are-the-democrats-going-to-save-us-this-time
• Kruggers on how-china-won-the-iran-war , the-oligarchs-are-doubling-down-on-republicans , an-explosion-of-misery , the-good-news-trump-wont-mention , news-of-the-weak-labor-market
• Ian Millhiser on todd-blanche-cornyn-tillis-cave
• John Cassidy on kevin-warsh-is-facing-more-than-a-communication-problem
• Harry Littman on reflecting-pool-case-a-kafkaesque-debacle-even-after-the-dismissal 
• Theodore Zorn on return-of-the-red-scare-how-the-us-right-is-weaponising-the-word-communism
• David Graham on trump-loosing-black-hispanic-young-republican-voters
• Lisa Needham on jeanine-pirro-crashes-into-the-limit-of-trump's-lying
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-humiliated-iran-reflecting-pool
• Nancy Youseff and Jonathan Lemire on shortage-weapons-shaping-war-iran
• newdeal democrat on the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes-for-july-show-a-reasonably-strong-but-stagflationary-expansion 
• Tyler Cowen on will-u-s-cities-face-a-knock-on-fiscal-crisis-from-the-feds
• Pyotr Kurzin on america-is-literally-out-of-ammo

Europe

• Luke Harding on this-is-where-democracy-beats-totalitarianism-ukraines-drone-strike-force-takes-the-fight-to-russia
• Deniz Cortu on how-the-ceuta-border-crossing-incident-immediately-played-into-the-hands-of-spains-far-right
• Anne Applebaum on ceuta-spain-far-right , ukraine-russia-war-drones
• Lisa Martin on europe-s-far-right-cashes-in-on-the-ceuta-crossings
• Stefan Wolff et al on we-investigated-russias-military-indoctrination-of-ukrainian-children-in-occupied-territories-what-we-found-was-more-shocking-than-we-could-have-imagined
• mainly macro on long-term-fiscal-projections-are-good-antidote-for-piliticians-talking-about-taxcuts

Asia

• Martin Kear on trump-is-hailing-it-as-a-breakthrough-but-will-hamas-actually-disarm-in-gaza
• Simon Avenell on defining-a-normal-country-japans-long-struggle-between-pacifism-and-the-threats-of-a-new-era
• Anna Brennan on even-if-hamas-disarms-the-challenge-in-gaza-will-be-accountability
• Khang Vu on pyongyang-s-nuclear-bomber-bluff 
• Emirza Syailendra on south-china-sea-competing-sovereignty-is-sinking-joint-development 
• William Chung on defusing-japan-and-china-s-unmanaged-security-dilemma
• Mark the Graph on the-morass-and-why-peace-only-lasted-eight-days
• Andrew Thomas on with-its-new-leverage-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-does-iran-want-or-need-a-nuclear-weapon
• Xiaobo Liu and Sophie Yi on at-a-crossroads-how-beijing-sees-manila-s-south-china-sea-turn 
• Shameek Godara on the-quad-needs-asean-more-than-asean-needs-the-quad 
• Cory Alpert on the-trigger-for-asia-s-next-war-privatised 
• Michael Schmitt on strategic-attack-on-iran-airpowers-promises-limits-and-lessons
• renew economy on china-coal-the-cheap-tonnes-are-running-out-and-the-bigger-they-are-the-harder-they-fall

Wonk

• in due course on on-becoming-less-full-of-shit Thanks Nick
• John List et al on the valueof behavioural policies Thanks Nick
• James Skinner on fifa-and-infantino-face-an-uncertain-future-as-leading-soccer-nations-fight-for-change
• Tyler Cowen on immigration-and-macroeconomic-outcomes-in-oecd-countries , who-pays-for-unions
• Kruggers on geoeconomics-part-i-ranking-economic-superpowers
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-prices-update
• the conversable economist on summer-2026-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online
• noahpinion on the-end-of-the-age-of-heroes
• Chris Dillow on on-the-ownership-of-assets
• Nic Bisley on authoritarian-states-are-rewiring-the-global-order-australia-and-the-liberal-world-can-be-the-circuit-breaker

General

• Emily Wilson on if-you-can-bear-to-hear-the-truth-youve-spoken Thanks Nick
• Martin McKenzie-Murray on interviewing-mccartney Thanks Nick 
• KO Chong-Gossard on in-homers-epic-a-bold-princess-helps-odysseus-home-but-not-in-nolans-film-who-is-nausicaa
• Brad De Long on emily-wilsons-inordinate-rage-against-the-odyssey , crosspost-sean-illing-you-cant-have-homer-nietzsche-and-jesus
• Russell Bicknell and Julian Kimmig on on-the-origin-of-feces-how-animal-poo-drove-earths-greatest-evolutionary-event
• Vera Weisbacker et al on dodos-probably-werent-as-stupid-as-historians-made-them-out-to-be-new-research

Climate 

• Andrew Weaver on donald-trump-blames-canada-for-wildfire-smoke-but-global-warming-is-loading-the-wildfire-dice
• Shawan Chowdhury et al on butterflies-are-on-the-move-as-the-planet-warms-new-research
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-can-we-train-researchers-and-consumers-of-research-to-put-numbers-in-perspective-as-a-matter-of-course
  
• what-gets-you-is-not-what-you-dont-know-but-what-you-dont-know-you-dont-know
  
• placebo-tests-deserve-a-model-not-just-a-glance 
  
• stand up comedy 
• in-that-era-undergrad-males-at-madison-and-elsewhere-had-to-take-rotc-classes-and-he-kept-intentionally-failing-them-because-he-was-very-leftwing-politically
  
• walnutpie-version-0-0-1-released
  
• survey-statistics-structured-mrp-to-smooth-survey-weights
  
• manned-mars-mission-miscellaneous 
  
• the-blessing-of-dimensionality
  
• how-to-avoid-the-clean-data-clean-model-trap-when-teaching-statistics-and-data-science
  
• freakometrics on will technology save us
• Kaiser Fung on yet-another-way-to-order-pie-slices

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• july-monthly-reading-round-up
  
• Tyler Cowen on romes-age-of-revolution
• Mark Danner on trumps-constitutional-dictatorship-regime-change-haberman-swan

vox wonk

• carbon-risk-loan-pricing-commitment-channels-and-real-effects 
  
• when-news-you-watch-shapes-inflation-you-expect 
  
• how-shifts-geoeconomic-power-are-rewiring-global-trade
  
• origins-multinational-premium-managerial-talent-firm-risk-and-corporate-taxation 
  
• uncovering-labour-supply-channel-monetary-transmission 
  
• climate-policy-may-crowd-out-green-values-and-what-do-about-it
  
• when-political-pressure-trumps-academic-freedom
  
• automation-does-not-lower-labour-share 
  
• safe-debt-financing-international-spillovers-and-benefits-fiscal-policy-coordination 
  
• glp-1-treatment-reduces-sickness-absence
  

Replace Albo with Chalmers

 I have very little time today so it will be short and sweet.

The ALP has won the last two elections despite albo not because of albo.A sorta modern day howard. He is a poor communicator. This did not matter previously but it does now. (now in the next election I will not be voting ALP as they have had two terms).

Jim Chalmers on the other hand is a very good communicator. Make Andrew Charlton your treasurer and suddenly the ALP no longer looks timid but reform minded and it needs to be.

To be bi-partisan Taylor is a very poor communicator as well but there is no ready made replacement!

I should add although it is obvious if you cannot communicate you cannot reform. This means you have to understand what you are doing and then explain it. Stand up Paul Keating. Timid people cannot reform nor communicate

Hanson's authoritarian instincts

 Two people beat me to it.

• Peter Greste
• Dennis Muller

Hanson only likes people who give her a good press to be at her news conferences. This means she has a political glass jaw and does not understand what democracy is. It also means those reporters who do turn up to her news conferences are tarnished.

Like many dictators and wannabe dictators she is intellectually challenged. ( I can only think of Lenin ,Trosky would have been there but Stalin beat him off.)

I cannot help wondering why our old mate Gerry Henderson has not written about this!!

The US Department of Justice is getting worse

 No-one has lost more lustre being a trump apologist than Todd Blanche. When he was with the DOJ he was well liked and respected. Now he is responsible for a person getting off because of vindictive prosecution! He signed up on the disgraceful agreement that was going to be the anti-weaponisation fund as well as the Trumps having lifetime immunity from the tax department. Just remember he was Trump's personal lawyer and thus should have recused himself. At a press conference he said they had plenty of more evidence and witnesses to prosecute James Comey. Only problem is we find a number of illegal things were done in the investigation and it will be interesting if the grand jury proceedings are investigated. This would not be the first time. The concept of presumption of regularity is being reduced brick by brick

Blanche and Bondi are responsible for this. Remember the disaster of Halligan. bondi wrote to the judge saying what occurred in the grand jury was fine. Whoopsy a magistrate judge found otherwise. This is not the only case of the DOJ doing illegal things in grand jury hearings.

Now we have the ludicrous case of the reflecting poll.

It is a disgrace and it will take a long time to reform the DOJ so it can regain its former pristine reputation. It is getting worse under blanche and this will continue!!

A few things

 In no order of importance.

Albo

If the private sector do not want to build oil terminals then there is no need to do a study into building one. the reason they do not want to build one is that it is  like coal fired power plants) not profitable.

I think we can confidently say now we cannot trust the ALP to do anything positive on gambling. both albo and Minns are very weak on this.

Ukraine

Zelensky had to choose between his defence minister and chief general. He went for the latter but the punters did not approve so he changed. the new general in charge who looks very formidable and has popular support and importantly does not have any soviet baggage. His old defence minister will be around somewhere.

They need patriots bigtime as it is only the ballistic missiles that are hitting ukraine. What a pity a lot were wasted in Iran

Iran

We do know the US stockpiles of weapons has drastically reduced. It appears the US has not learnt any lessons from Ukraine. They are wasting high value assets on low value drones. Ukraine does not. I do not believe Iran is going to do anything to have a 'treaty' until after the mid-terms. does anyone remember the hapless Jimmy Carter in 1980?

Spain

There were a lot of people that got to Ceuta. They apparently thought they could get to spain. ( it isn't part of mainland spain. When they found out they had beeen wood-ducked most went back to morocco. Why did they think that. believing far right nut jobs.It is a familiar story.

FIFA

The President came up with a hairbrained scheme to sell off their most prized assets. No-one liked it and hopefully he will go.

Communism

If you want to understand what communism is then you need to read Das Kapital. Beware it is very long and boring. the communist manifesto is better as it is much shorter.  There is no private sector in communism thus a candidate who is a communist wants to nationalise every sector. If you believe the government should own part of the private sector like trump then you are a socialist. If you believe the public sector should only own assets that are essential then you believe in capitalism!!

Around the Traps 31/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on why-demand-rules-housing-market , house-purchase-affordability-where-i-stand
• Mark Warburton on even-the-government-agrees-job-ready-graduates-has-failed-heres-what-should-replace-it
• Milad Haghani on as-china-bans-new-cars-with-unsafe-doors-australia-risks-becoming-a-dumping-ground
• Rebecca Strating and Arzan Tarapore on new-research-shows-how-vulnerable-australia-would-be-to-attacks-on-shipping-in-the-indian-ocean
• Zareh Ghazarian on ben-carroll-is-the-new-victorian-premier-he-has-a-long-and-urgent-to-do-list-and-4-months-until-an-election
• Yee-Fui Ng on how-the-big-build-corruption-allegations-brought-down-the-victorian-premier
• Mark Bray on after-a-decade-leading-the-actu-what-is-the-legacy-of-sally-mcmanus-and-michele-oneil
• Barbara Kinder and Michael Charles on governments-have-a-financial-vested-interest-not-to-reform-gambling-laws-heres-why
• Mark Warburton et al on three-things-australia-must-do-to-end-the-tobacco-wars
• Shane Wright on it-s-lucky-inflation-is-falling-most-of-us-don-t-even-understand-what-the-reserve-bank-does 
• Stella Huangfu on australian-inflation-has-eased-a-little-an-august-interest-rate-rise-now-looks-unlikely
• Andrew Kemp on 26-charts-of-australia-in-trouble  , forty-interesting-facts-about-australiaThanks Tyler
• Timothy Koskie on australias-online-watchdog-is-taking-messaging-app-telegram-to-court-over-pro-terrorist-posts
• Millie Muroi on most-of-us-get-this-economics-question-wrong-we-re-paying-for-it
• Richard Ackland on melbourne-businessman-guilty-rape-identity-suppression-gag-order-open-justice
• Faith  Tabulujan on australias-fuel-discount-is-ending-what-does-this-mean-for-petrol-prices

OZ Climate

• strong-endorsement-australias-biggest-solar-battery-hybrid-project-locks-in-finance
  
• tallest-turbines-and-longest-blades-arrive-in-australia-for-300-km-road-trip-to-pilbara-wind-site
  
• electricity-network-tariffs-are-a-dogs-breakfast-where-to-now-for-distributors
  
• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
• queensland-utility-writes-contract-for-one-of-states-biggest-wind-projects-the-first-under-lnp-government 
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark 
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper 
  
• second-stage-of-supernode-battery-begins-operations-making-it-the-biggest-in-australias-main-grid
  
• uncertainty-over-coal-closures-haunts-wind-and-solar-projects-all-eyes-on-yallourn-as-exit-proof-point
  
• australia-cannot-hedge-its-way-to-a-renewable-export-future 
  
• wind-project-faces-referral-due-to-long-distance-objectors-citing-impacts-of-a-wind-farm-that-doesnt-exist
  
• three-months-and-still-no-sign-of-life-but-government-says-it-is-committed-to-solar-recycling-pilot
  
• the-wind-drought-that-no-one-wants-but-everyone-talks-about
  
• Steve Turton on the-dangerous-climate-driving-californias-wildfires-and-a-warning-for-australia
• Christopher Auricht on fire-can-destroy-peatlands-but-in-australia-it-can-also-help-protect-them
• Joel Gilmour on batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
• Graham Readfearn on australians-value-batteries-and-evs-but-renewables-industry-must-earn-trust-of-regions-summit-told
• Kaitlin Hammond et al on we-revisited-a-forest-experiment-that-lay-forgotten-for-30-years-what-we-found-was-astounding

Northern America

• institutional economics on money-policy-errors-and-the-fed
• Harold Meyerson on benjamin-franklin-champion-of-the-wealth-tax Thanks Nick
• John Quiggin on nate-silver-discovers-the-educated-poor
• John Carlson on the-us-just-lowered-its-own-nuclear-bar
• noahpinion on we-asked-too-much-of-the-american-university
• Kruggers on against-oligarchy-part-ii-wealth-taxes ,the-fire-this-time , the-putinization-of-the-american-military , when-the-chips-are-down , reality-is-a-communist-plot , the-bond-market-doesnt-like-bullshit
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on which-way-should-the-democratic-party-go-now
• Caitlin Dewey on us-measles-record-cdc , the-covid-debate-that-never-ended
• Cameron Peters on trump-administration-asylum-claims-immigration-judge-deportations
• Katherine Wu on anthony-fauci-politics-hearing
• Bill McKibben on tumps-isolationism-is-losing-the-great-ev-race
• Menzie Chinn on reducing-employment-growth , estimates-of-current-inventories-of-patriot-and-thaad-interceptors
• the conversable economist on major-stereotypes
• Brad De Long on josh-marshalls-ire-is-activated-by-nate-silver , crosspost-lyz-lenz-who-will-you-blame-when-the-haitain-immigrants-are-gone
• Jonatan Lemire on trump-iran-midterms
• Rachel Carson on rand-paul-anthony-fauci-lab-leak-spillover-pandemic-origin
• Jeet Heer on trump-whcd-speech-media-humiliation
• Zeeshan Aleem on netanyahu-arrest-us-poll-israel-war-criminal-zohran-mamdani-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on third-worldism-trump-rubio-cuba
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-bombing-air-force
• Jonathan Chait on comey-trump-aides-secret-service
• Isaac Chotiner on will-left-wing-democrats-re-invent-the-party-or-hurt-its-chances-in-november
• Ken Dilanian on a-jury-found-two-police-officers-covered-up-a-murder-trump-pardoned-them
• Art Gibson on faucis-covid-origins-hearing-shows-how-conspiracy-theories-became-political-weapons 
• David Frum on fauci-senate-diary-rand-paul
• Nancy Youseff and Johnathan Lemire on iran-war-trump-misunderstandings

Europe

• Tom Loosemore on uk reorganisation risks devolution and AI reform Thanks Nick
• Martin Farr on what-weve-learned-from-andy-burnhams-first-week-as-prime-minister
• James Horncastle on volodymyr-zelenskyys-removal-of-two-top-defence-officials-highlights-the-role-of-morale-in-long-wars
• Ibrahim Al-Marashi on berlin-pride-isis-still-inspires-terrorism-in-europe-but-who-carries-out-these-attacks
• Caitlin Dewey on spain-france-wildfires-europe-warming
• David Bowman et al on the-fire-has-such-power-why-the-wildfires-gripping-france-and-spain-are-off-the-charts
• Chris Dillow on social-care-the-fight-for-economic-thinking
• the conversable economist on the-eu-green-deal-hows-it-going

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on estimates-of-q2-chinese-gdp
• David Frum on saudi-arabia-trump-nuclear-deal
• Abhijen Rej on roaches-reborn-win-big-in-india
• Brad De Long on the-strait-of-hormuz-has-now-been-effectively-closed-for-4 1/2 months
• Amy McAuliffe on us-saudi-nuclear-deal-invites-proliferation-risks-unless-safeguards-are-written-in
• Saqlain Rizve on china-s-next-south-asian-corridor-may-begin-in-bangladesh 
• Yuyun Wahyuningrum on starvation-as-a-weapon-the-icj-myanmar-case-could-redefine-genocide 
• David Remnick on how-netanyahus-top-general-became-his-strongest-challenger
• Stephanie Campbell on twenty-years-of-praising-india-is-not-a-china-strategy
• home and away on overreach
• David Zhang on the-end-of-cheap-peace-in-east-asia
• noahpinion on why-did-south-korean-stocks-just-crash
• Martin Kear on trump-is-hailing-it-as-a-breakthrough-but-will-hamas-actually-disarm-in-gaza

Wonk

• Yiying Liu on seeds-possibilities-how-my-21-year-old-pomegranate-illustration Thanks Nick
• Valerie Stivers on a-novelists-dark-portrait-of-natalie-portman Thanks Nick
• Barry Weiss on what-nobody-teaches-you-about-the-holocaust Thanks Nick
• Samantha Pearson on trump-brazil-payment-system-pix Thanks Nick 
• Richard Hanania on why-populism-fails Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on experts-know-less-than-they-like-to-think
• the conversable economist on occupational-licensing-us-and-international
• Ashlynne McGhee et al on the-unsexy-low-tech-fix-that-will-reduce-brain-injuries-in-sport
• noahpinion on what-will-more-intelligence-actually-do-for-us , roundup-85
• Garritt Van Dyk on one-grain-to-rule-them-all-the-history-of-rice-as-a-global-food
• Tyler Cowen on the-decline-in-the-transmission-of-scientific-ideas
• Gregory Radisic on an-abandoned-spacex-rocket-is-about-to-crash-into-the-moon-the-real-problem-comes-next
• mainly macro on the-relationship-between-capital-plutocracy-and-populism
• David Rowe on world-game-at-war-why-some-european-nations-have-threatened-a-world-cup-boycott
• thomas the think engine on the-great-housing-surplus

General

• Noelia Noel on nasas-new-space-telescope-will-tackle-some-of-the-universes-biggest-mysteries
• Tom Davies on who-was-homer-author-of-the-odyssey
• Mathew Ahamdi et al on does-regular-exercise-stop-you-getting-sick-in-winter
• Constance Grady on odyssey-homer-nolan-which-translation

Climate

• Vanessa PIrotta on like-someone-whacking-a-pinata-orcas-explode-sunfish-by-ramming-them-at-high-speed
• Shannon Hobbs et al on who-gets-the-world-s-clean-electricity
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-prices-update
• Harris Anderson et al on can-we-alter-ocean-chemistry-to-absorb-carbon-here-are-the-pros-and-cons
• skeptical science on hot-days-cold-thermometers , new_research
• Bill McGuire on wildfires-rage-world-climate-action-scientists-fossil-fuels
• Andrew Weaver on donald-trump-blames-canada-for-wildfire-smoke-but-global-warming-is-loading-the-wildfire-dice
• Uwe Kirsher on can-pumping-groundwater-really-flip-earths-poles-an-expert-explains

Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)

• i-dont-see-journal-review-as-a-gatekeeping-process-that-will-keep-erroneous-articles-from-being-published
  
• the-jewish-vote-is-not-about-the-jewish-vote-jewish-public-opinion-is-not-about-jewish-public-opinion
  
• statistical models
• selection-effects-can-go-both-ways 
  
• survey-statistics-equivalent-models-equivalent-weights-locally 
  
• eleven-kinds-of-loneliness-richard-yates-and-the-tragedy-of-agency
  
• over-coverage-caught-by-pre-registration-47-of-56-inside-a-stated-50-interval
  
• posterior-predictive-checking-is-for-non-bayesians-too 
  
• what-do-we-learn-from-bestseller-regressions
  
• Kaiser Fung on slow-thinking-required
• Kyle Hewitt on what-is-a-p-value-an-expert-explains-the-most-misunderstood-number-in-science
• statschat on nz-weight-loss-supplement-works

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Hossain Asgari on this-compelling-novel-follows-five-lives-changed-forever-by-irans-islamic-revolution
• Tyler Cowen on liberal-worlds-james-bryce-and-the-democratic-intellect-2
• Brad De Long on partial-crosspost-william-davies-review-of-when-the-clock-broke-conmen-conspiracists-and-the-origins-of-trumpism
• John Hawkins on this-history-of-currencies-suggests-the-us-dollars-dominance-may-fade-but-it-will-happen-slowly
• Mathew Ricketson on regime-change-might-be-2026s-nonfiction-bestseller-heres-why-its-essential-chilling-reading

Vox Wonk

• after-fire-how-ukrainian-strikes-disrupt-local-economies-around-russian-refineries 
  
• assaf-razin-international-economist-global-age 
  
• technology-adoption-and-labour-shortages-evidence-britains-industrial-revolution
  
• debt-service-and-fiscal-sustainability 
  
• dividend-tax-reforms-why-design-shapes-revenue-and-measured-inequality 
  
• beyond-snapshot-how-poverty-really-unfolds-over-time-eu 
  
• rethinking-use-quantitative-easing-macro-stimulus 
  
• ai-premium
  
• digital-banks-social-media-and-competition-deposits 
  
• baby-busts-and-gdp-booms-demographic-change-and-macroeconomy
  

Rate rise probably unlikely

 The CPI came out yesterday. Things are not as bad s they looked previously.  HERE is one analysis. it is pretty much on the money.

Let me quote from CBA economic research. The trimmed mean was softer than expected and there is limited pass through at present. Add that to demand slowing, the labour market softening quicker than expected and housing being quite soft and you have a case at present to keep rates where they are.

The middle east is the major problem and may cause them to lift rates if oil prices take off.

We shall see

renewables

 It has been ssome time since I 'posted' on this topic so here are some articles.

• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper
  
• batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
  

Wholesale prices are 47% lower than this time last year. Why you ask? renewables. As they further increase and coal/ gas further decrease this should continue.

Ask another question. Why aren't investors building coal fired power stations if they are the cheapest form of power with their ears pinned back. afterall no-one is stopping them! Because they are not the cheapest  and take a long time to build. If nuclear is so attractive why are investors knocking the door down in protest for not being able to build them. Because they are easily the most expensive form of power. Duh

Politics in OZ

 Victoria

I cannot believe the ALP want to replace their leader when there is an election in november. Do they think victorians are complete morons. It merely reinforces the impression the ALP is in disarray and are fighting among themselves. The punters in australia punish the ALP for this way more harsher than the LNP . Now I favour a change of government in victoria as the ALP have been in for more than two terms and are showing clear signs they have run out of puff.

NSW

We have an ICAC hearing which is not going to be good for the Liberals moreson as they clearly favour Chris Minns. I suggest we might see a weakened version of the SA result here. The ICAC inquiry might    ( probably) divert votes from the LNP to ON.

Hanson

What can we say. She is certainly 'affectionate' about the white Australia policy'. By the way it was Harold Holt not Gough Whitlam that got rid of it thank the lord. How that is not racist thinking? Then next she is blaming victims of domestic violence. and of course she favous mass deportations alah trump. AND she has a glass jaw politically.

There is an  old saying that no matter who you vote for you will get a politician. Apart from being a moronic truism even the criticism misses the point. Whoever you vote for will be a human being. As some stage they will lie, mislead etc even dissapoint. Alas the voters are human as well and have undue expectations.

The price of oil

It is hard to see the price of oil falling much. There are four reasons for this.

1. The strait of hormuz
2. the red sea
3. the fall in russian prodution
4. inventories

As you can see 1 & 2 are related to the Illegal war the USA is conducting on Iran. They are chokepoints for middle east oil to get to the rest of the world. Trump is a moron ( this is a highly technical term) and has gotten himself into a war where there is no end unless he gives Iran too much inn an agreement. Iran has no reason to sue for peace and would like it to continue until after the mid-terms. The houthis are joining Iran in their quest. Just remember even if hostilities stop ships need insurance to sail and that would take time in both areas.

People have seemingly ignored the Russian/Ukraine war. Ukraine drones are making a mess of russian oil production and terminals. It is hard to see Ukraine reducing this successful campaign.

Inventories were rundown a lot when the War started and no oil was able to get out of the strait of hormuz. Any further hostilities could see oil prices rise bigtime.

Let me finish on a very bearish note. If trump does put boots on the ground in Iran then watch out!

Around the Traps 24/7/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rex Patrick on defence-thales-munitions-contract-aukus Thanks Nick
• Sam Bennett and Owain Emslie on cutting-community-participation-budgets-isnt-needed-to-save-the-ndis
• Michelle Grattan on israel-attacks-labors-draft-platform-on-israel-gaza-conflict
• Andrew Cullen on a-cheap-25-year-old-piece-of-hardware-broke-telstra-its-a-wake-up-call-for-other-businesses
• Hamish McKenzie and Alison Reeve on industry-backlash-threatens-australias-gas-supply-fix-leaders-must-step-up
• Wendy Goff on to-turn-the-socceroos-into-world-cup-contenders-we-need-to-start-with-the-junior-game
• Greg Jericho on gas-exports-tax-pressure-growing-inside-labor-alp-conference
• Jason Nassious on the-way-australia-taxes-gas-production-is-stuck-in-the-past-this-is-why-companies-arent-paying-their-fair-share
• Dennis Muller on media-scrutiny-can-take-many-forms-pauline-hansons-past-few-weeks-have-shown-how-quickly-it-can-backfire
• James Martin et al on three-things-australia-must-do-to-end-the-tobacco-wars
• Antony Green on correcting-late-night-live-on-one-nations-past-legal-problems
• Jon Piccini on white-australia-has-always-been-a-myth-hanson-lamenting-its-end-is-wrong-and-dangerous

OZ Climate

• its-got-to-be-more-than-big-batteries-the-triumphs-and-failures-of-australias-green-energy-transition
  
• australias-solar-pv-recycling-plans-on-hold-afhttps://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-solar-pv-recycling-plans-on-hold-after-flagship-pilot-project-suspended/ter-flagship-pilot-project-suspended
  
• firefighter-group-hits-back-at-wild-claims-and-fear-mongering-over-transmission-lines-and-fire-risk
  
• yes-we-need-more-wind-power-in-the-meantime-lets-get-the-most-from-the-projects-we-have 
• major-milestone-for-big-battery-next-to-gas-plant-in-coal-country-as-1038th-and-final-unit-installed
  
• scientifically-tenuous-half-baked-epbc-reform-will-leave-wind-industry-in-the-wilderness-investors-warn
  
• rinehart-back-miner-achieves-90-pct-renewables-in-june-quarter-may-take-processing-plant-off-grid
  
• battery-boast-australia-dodges-global-gas-price-shock-with-help-of-storage-and-renewables
  
• will-data-centres-save-the-wind-industry-or-kill-our-climate-targets-or-could-they-do-both
  
• worm-turns-for-wind-arrival-of-biggest-and-lowest-cost-turbines-stirs-australias-moribund-market
  
• Pippa Neil on slowdown-arctic-sea-ice-melt-largest-winter-decline-record
• Jason Alexandra on building-dams-to-protect-lismore-from-flooding-would-cost-billions-could-nature-do-it-better

Northern America

• Michael Liss on a-natural-aristocracy-among-men Thanks Nick
• institutional economikevin-warsh-likes-monetarism-but-does-monetarism-like-kevin-warsh
• Menzie Chinn on ai-capex-and-accounting-for-us-gdp-growth
• Kruggers on lina-khan-on-ai-and-more , trumps-war-on-the-future-monetary-edition , oy-canada-tariffs, elon-musk-the-new-hero-of-populism , quagmire-of-the-vanities
• Jean-Nicholas Bordelau on trump-is-rehashing-old-claims-the-2020-election-was-stolen-his-real-aim-sowing-doubt-in-the-midterms 
• Tom Nicholls on trump-war-iran-casualties, trump-iran-conflict-pentagon
• Ruth Marcus on trumps-war-on-journalists
• noahpinion on americas-political-economy-is-pretty-bleak-right-now
• Chris Bertram on on-refugees-being-cast-as-invaders-and-fighting-age-males
• Nina Jankowicz on trump-election-fraud-speech-what-to-know
• Joshua Keating on trump-venezuela-iran 
• Dahlia Lithwick on monarchy-supreme-court-popular-constitution-by-the-people
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-goes-to-trade-war-with-canada , trump-nuclear-deal-saudi-israel-july
• Tyler Cowen on is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy
• Biyon Joseph on washington-misreads-middle-power-cooperation
• Bryan Walsh on wildfire-heat-wave-climate-change-smoke-adaptation
• Fred Kaplan on trump-saudi-nuclear-pact-israels-popularity-tanking
• Daniel Schlozman on the-dnc-against-itself
• Dani Schulkin et al on courts-grand-juries-reject-trump-investigations
• Lisa Needham on lorenzo-salgado-araujo-joan-sebastian-guerrero
• Caitlin Dewey on how-israel-lost-the-dems
• Michael Schmitt on clausewitz-operation-epic-fury
• Alan Wolf on trumps-new-tariffs-over-forced-labor-are-unlikely-to-survive-a-court-challenge thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on trump-saudi-nuclear-deal-analysis

Europe

• Eric Shaw on andy-burnham-is-the-labour-leader-third-time-lucky-for-the-uks-prime-minister-in-waiting
• Ben Wellings on burnhams-britain-what-kind-of-country-has-the-uks-new-prime-minister-inherited
• Stefan Wolff on ukraines-defence-shake-up-exposes-rift-in-zelenskys-inner-circle
• Paul Whitely on could-count-binface-actually-win
• Hannah Bunting on andy-burnham-becomes-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-leaves-downing-street-for-the-last-time
• Andrew Roe-Crines on no-lectern-and-the-promise-of-a-new-model-what-we-can-learn-from-andy-burnhams-speech
• noahpinion on the-uk-is-a-cautionary-tale-for-the-USA
• Cory Alpert on kyiv-s-streets-are-rewriting-zelenskyy-s-mandate
• mainly macro on the-political-barriers-to-radical-tax-reform
• Mick Ryan on ukraine-s-new-command-team-faces-its-first-three-tests 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-remembering-a-cold-war-adventure-in-portugal

Asia

• Lyne O'Donnell on the-taliban-s-harder-task-to-turn-conquest-into-control
• Linda Lee on dmz-changes-put-birds-on-a-trip-wire
• Vincent Parada on why-chinese-claims-of-sovereignty-over-the-batan-islands-cannot-be-ignored 
• Sanjoy Paul on why-new-houthi-threats-in-the-red-sea-could-spell-trouble-for-global-oil-prices-and-inflation
• Mariam Farida on as-its-support-in-lebanon-wanes-hezbollah-faces-a-difficult-decision-about-its-future
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parama on iran-is-turning-into-the-sort-of-forever-war-that-donald-trump-promised-to-avoid
• Asha Hemrajani and Julia Chinn on singapore-s-anti-scam-war-catching-mules-missing-masterminds
• Caitllan Dewey on iran-war-july-strikes
• Brad De Long on the-strait-of-hormuz-has-now-been-effectively-closed-for-4 1/2-months
• Hamideh Mohammadi and Ali Abbassi on as-missiles-fly-iranians-are-turning-to-art-culture-and-memes-to-find-community
• Helen Epstein on gazas-deadly-soil
• Ved Shinde on japan-and-india-focus-on-culture-to-connect
• Bich Tran on vietnam-s-cooperation-and-struggle-bind-with-china

Wonk

• James Breckwoldt on how-to-get-big-stuff-done-in-government Thanks Nick
• Toby Manhire on bridges-and-betrayal-the-lange-douglas-letters Thanks Nick
• the technium on latent-space-as-a-new-medium Thanks Nick 
• moral clarity on the-people-who-know-nothing-know-everything Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on can-you-keep-a-trade-secret
• the conversable economist on is-progress-sustainable-mokyrs-nobel-lecture , chokepoints-for-ocean-trade-strait-of-hormuz-and-what-else
• Tony Jan on there-are-already-16-000-satellites-in-earths-orbit-how-will-we-manage-the-next-100-000
• Marina Zhang on chinese-companies-are-taking-over-the-ev-market-whats-behind-their-meteoric-rise
• Cass Sunstein on on-being-a-conservative thanks Tyler 
• Brad De Long on convergence-in-llm-quality-and-slowdown-llm-improvement , the-short-summer-of-cross-nation-convergence-in-real-GDP-per capita-levels , retrodiction-and-prediction-history
• Joyce Siette on your-dementia-risk-is-higher-if-your-spouse-has-it-but-its-more-than-shared-lifestyle
• Areyh Neir on so-called-international-law-trump-icc
• noahpinion on who-was-the-worst-monster-of-the-20th-century
• Markus Wagner on the-us-is-issuing-billions-in-tariff-refunds-that-wont-unwind-the-damage-to-the-global-trading-system

General

• Joshua McDermott on the-odyssey-is-haunted-by-the-mysterious-sea-peoples-but-who-were-they-really
• Daniel Mendelsohn on artful-weaving-odyssey-christopher-nolan

Climate

• David Appell on no-pause-in-global-temperature
• moyhu on june-global-surface-templs-up-0062-from-may
• Duo Chan and Alessandro Silvano on your-dementia-risk-is-higher-if-your-spouse-has-it-but-its-more-than-shared-lifestyle
• ocean acidification on the-molecular-footprint-of-global-change-in-antarctic-coral 
• open mind on canada-wildfire 
• skeptical science on canada-boreal-wildfires-not-just-bad-management , new_research
• Harris Anderson et al on can-we-alter-ocean-chemistry-to-absorb-carbon-here-are-the-pros-and-cons
• Katherine Johnson on can-rewilding-offer-us-a-brighter-greener-future

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-scientists-in-the-epstein-files-including-a-roboticist-and-an-esp-researcher
  
• its-all-about-the-super-pacs-how-the-new-york-times-completely-misreported-campaign-contributions-in-the-maine-senate-race
  
• university-of-california-professor-and-ted-talk-performer-asks-sex-trafficker-for-3000000-because-he-thinks-theres-a-50-chance-hell-make-important-discoveries-in-telepathy
  
• fancy-three-dimensional-sets-are-easier-to-construct-in-books-than-in-movies-but-harder-to-explain
  
• was-this-usda-survey-really-redundant-costly-politicized-and-extraneous 
  
• survey-statistics-poststratification-without-population-level-information 
  
• he-washed-his-hands-in-a-can-of-tetraethyl-lead-at-a-press-conference-claiming-he-was-not-taking-any-chance-whatever-he-knew-this-to-be-a-lie-having-already-succumbed-to-a-bout
  
• pretty-maps-of-the-ny-mayoral-election-vote-the-meta-point-here-is-that-people-have-a-false-intuition-that-any-complicated-piece-of-information-can-be-conveyed-in-a-single-plot
  
• how-generic-language-shapes-the-development-of-social-thought
  
• Kaiser Fung on recent-ai-use-cases

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• place-based-industrial-policies-long-run 
  
• how-oil-price-shocks-redraw-map-conflict
  
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