Tuesday, 27 September 2022

The UK's problems

 Oh dear the poms certainly know how to stuff things up.

To make an obvious point the conservatives have no leadership at all at present.

Monday, 26 September 2022

My son has entered the property market

 Yesterday My son was successful in buying a townhouse which is near us. He had been quite diligent in building up his savings so he had much more then was needed for getting a loan.

He now has to payback the loan which at this stage he also can do easily.

I am pleased he has gotten a place for himself. It does help if you get married for example. I am also pleased it is nearby. It helps him both with his job and with his refereeing in winter. It is also good for us as he is nearby.

All in all a significant day.

Sunday, 25 September 2022

Cricket season has started

 Cricket season started on the weekend. I was a bit unlucky. On Saturday we got to 31 overs after one interruption when the rain came. Too many puddles meant no more cricket.

My game on Sunday di not occur as one team forfeited. Damn it it was a glorious day for cricket.

This coming week does not look too good. Quite a bit of rain could make it highly problematic.

Still the season has started and that is a good thing.

Thursday, 22 September 2022

Around the Traps 23/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle

vox wonk

Wednesday, 21 September 2022

Is the budget in rude health?

 The Treasurer and the Minister for finance announced the final budget outcome.

It is well down from what was announced at budget time and when PEFO came out.

The main reason but not the only reasons is that commodity prices ( mainly iron ore) are way higher than forecast in the budget. It appears few journalists realise finance insists on iron ore prices so low that there will almost always be an upgrade to budget outcomes.

The improvement has been all cyclical. There has been no structural improvement. This can be seen by the fact that Australia is at full employment and strong commodity prices are leading to large tax increases ( something that Wayne Swan  never saw).

Herein lies the problem for the ALP. Their child care policy will lead to a deterioration on the structural deficit so they have to cut in other areas quite a bit to ensure budget repair is on course.

We shall see next month whether they have done this.  They do have a problem. Too little reduction in the structural deficit will lead to higher interest rates. too much reduction could lead to a recession given interest rates are rising as well.

Tuesday, 20 September 2022

SA will be soon running on renewables only

 THIS article came out a while ago so it is aged but is important.

Experience has told AEMO that SA does not need as much back up as they previously thought. At its worst there were 4 gas fired generators ready to go just in case. If you read the article this has changed there will be soon only one gas fired generator.

This will change over time as the new windmills can generate electricity even in wind droughts. In essence no more intermittent electricity.

This is all exciting stuff. Couple this with changing fuel economy standards and it should be a breeze getting to 43%.  By the way electric cars can produce enough electricity for four days for a house,

Monday, 19 September 2022

The queen's death has been over the top

 I get some people are mournful about the Queen's death but it has been well over the top.

to give you but one example. The funeral was over almost all the TV channels so I retreated to the radio but there it was on the radio. It was on all three ABC stations. AM this morning except for one last item was all about the funeral. This is a disgrace.

So obviously Putin has done nothing since the death, no-one has dies from covid since the death etc. You get my point. It has been hard to get any news apart from the queen's death and it has been relentless. The ratings do not show everyone wants to see or hear about it. The ABC has been as bad as any news organisation on this subject.

Every news organisation should have a good hard look at how they covered this issue.

Sunday, 18 September 2022

the Mid terms

 Two very interesting articles on the forthcoming mid term elections in the USA.

Both are must reads

Thursday, 15 September 2022

Around the Traps 16/9/22

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

  • nuttin

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 14 September 2022

Tuesday, 13 September 2022

Monday, 12 September 2022

A funeral

 Today I go to the funeral of a former friend Warwick Armstrong ( grandson of the Australian cricket captain of the 1920s).

Warwick or wombat as he was known was a lover of life. I got to know him as a colleague. He was a very good bond dealer. He was great company but liked to smoke cigarettes. He dies of a heart attack quite suddenly.

All of us will miss him.

It is always sad when a friend of yours dies more so when it is unexpected. 

I am a time of life when I am attending funerals more than weddings.

Sunday, 11 September 2022

Jury Duty

 I was on jury duty last Thursday. Here are some reflections.

  • I have been on jury duty 5 times now. The first time was at the Downing Centre but the last 4 times it was at the Parramatta district court.
  • The bus timetables has changed since the last time I was on jury duty. I can no longer get the 521 but only the 545. 
  • the bus route has changed because of works being done in Parramatta.
  • Parramatta CBD is a dump and has not changed over the years.
  • I was not needed so i go to go home early.

Thursday, 8 September 2022

Around the Traps 9/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky and book reviews)

Vox Wonk


Tuesday, 6 September 2022

Lowe should go

 The RBA, as expected, raised official cash rates by 50 basis points.

There have been calls for Lowe to resign and I think he should.

Three reasons.

  1. his reputation is shot to bits
  2. his promise of not raising rates until 2024 was really really stupid
  3. he was far to slow in getting the cash rates back to neutral

Monday, 5 September 2022

The political scene is not going to form

 With a change of government we usually see a favourable rise in the polls. This has occurred. 

However what has not occurred as yet is on either side of the house are the Ministers who will be failures and on the Opposition side who will shine there as well.

To take two examples both on the ALP side. Gareth Evans was regarded as a failure as Attorney General but went on to be possibly the most successful Foreign Affairs minister sine Bert Evatt. Simon Crean absolutely shined in opposition and claimed quite a few scalps with ministers having to resign.

Amanda Rishworth might be a future failure but not as yet. McBain should have resigned because she did not read what she had to do as a minister. However that is about it.

On the Opposition side no-one is shining at all. Is this because they have little talent are struggling to come to terms with opposition or what.

Things will change and at some stage there will be a ministerial reshuffle but you would be guessing to say who will be a failure in government and who will shine in opposition.

Thursday, 1 September 2022

Around the Traps 2/9/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky+ book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Tuesday, 30 August 2022

I went to Tamworth

 I am a cricket umpire and the annual umpires conference was on at Tamworth so I decided to go for the first time. I had a great time.

Observations in no particular order.

  1. Trucks go a lot faster then 90k that I was driving at going there.
  2. I got there on less than half a tank of petrol.
  3. Tamworth's petrol prices are 5cents less than at West Ryde ( which are not the dearest around).
  4. I drove much faster going home and without a break. I just wanted to be home.
  5. I stopped twice going there because I didn't really care when I got there
  6. There is little traffic on the New England highway
  7. My hotel di not have the test cricket. It did have motorbike races ( very boring) and golf ( just boring).
  8. I got to sleep late on friday night as the couple in the next room was having sex and the woman much have kept everyone up by her moans!

Thursday, 25 August 2022

Around the Traps 26/8/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk