Thursday, 28 February 2019

Around the Traps 1/3/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle  (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 27 February 2019

Police behaving badly

Here are some examples of police behaving badly.

A person going home early in the morning after working a shift at night. There are no cars on the road. A police car stops the person who has allegedly not stopped at a stop sign. He did but not for the required time which is heavily argued about.

A person at Eastwood manages to cross a crossing where pedestrians walk across. They ignore the sign to walk in groups and there is a very large line of cars. A policecar stops this car as not all pedestrians had walked across the crossing..When it is pointed out to the policeman that if all car drivers too notice of that no-one would cross the crossing the policeman says it aint his problem.

A father is in the car allowing his son to drive the car on his learners plate. He sees a police car ahead with another car right near it. He tells his son to slow to 40 ks. When they pass the police car one policeman is booking the driver and the other has a radar out.

A person  parks at a servo. He rushes in to buy what he needs. He comes out and is confronted by a policeman. He is asked why he left the windows open and the doors  unlocked. He explains his situation but to no avail. He is fined well over $100.

Tuesday, 26 February 2019

Slow recoveries because of Austerity

I have written plenty of stuff on how austerity is very poor policy when confronted with a recession or even merely a slowing economy.
HERE is another short article on this process with a close look at technology.

Monday, 25 February 2019

Pell found guilty

We find out today George Pell was found guilty of sexual offences against two boys.

I am conflicted in this regard.
I am bound to accept the jury's decision.

I am at a loss to understand how this could occur after conducting mass when the room was not locked and there were plenty of people who could have simply walked in .
A person this brazen must have committed far more offences.

Yet for all this I did not hear as the Jury did all of the evidence provided.

The Catholic denomination has yet to recognise that paedophiles entered their  denomination because it was easy to commit sexual offences against children.

No person who has done this could ever be a minster et al. IF they repent they could be a member of said denomination. Alas Catholic theology is often is conflict with biblical theology/

Here is Frank Brennan. thanks Steve from Brisvegas.

Having a night to think about this I have the same feeling as in the OJ Simpson case. What were the juries thinking about.

A couple of points of australian polity

I am feeling a little weary for some strange reason.

I now do not know any political staffers. some-one I know did run into one who works in NSW.
This staffer thinks the Libs are gone in the NSW state election and is looking to work in Canberra but thinks that will end in May!!

I notice Scott Morrison is attempting to use the phrase the canberra bubble to divert attention away from his troubles there.
The only problem with this is it can backfire on you. When the finance minister of all people books an overseas trip but does not pay for it because he forgets about it the punters know that person is living on a canberra bubble.
When normal people book a trip they get an e-mail straight away with the bill. If they do not pay it by a certain date. No trip at all.

They also know they could not get away from not being interviewed by the police on any matter.

Thursday, 21 February 2019

Around the Traps 22/2/19

It is time yet again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 20 February 2019

Book Review John Curtin

Another book which I should have read before is the David Day biography of John Curtin.

Curtin is seen by most as one of our greatest Prime Ministers although war time leaders always have an advantage of others.

Curtin was a working class intellectual. He got this through his voracious reading.He also knew people of high intellects from whom he learnt as well.

Few people know he played and loved Aussie Rules and Cricket. On the few times he went to England he watched cricket. Unlike Menzies he needed the break as he pushed himself very hard.

He had a very strong work ethic. While clearly bot a christian I think it is likely he was a deist.

Like any political leader he had to ditch policies he previously championed as he wanted to win (and then maintain) Government.

He was not an alcoholic more a cheap drunk and got drunk when he had promised he would not drink went out of the public gaze.
He had many battles with Churchill, like Menzies before him, however unlike Churchill he did not hold grudges.
Finally his early death was tragic for a number of reasons. He worked far too hard and 'felt' the pain of possible mishaps more than others.
He clearly was a great leader. Neither Forde, Chifley nor Evatt were. At best we can say Forde was an able Deputy leader but hopeless acting leader. Chifley was a grand treasurer but lacked the political nous of Curtin as we saw in Bank Nationalisation.
If still leading Australia may have gotten the reconstruction it needed,

Hence the newly founded Liberal party won in 1949 when clearly they had no idea of what to do. Indeed from 1949-51 they were clearly much worse that Whitlam given the world economy.

Tuesday, 19 February 2019

Neo-Fisherism Does it make sense?

David Andalfatto of Macro Mania fame asks is-neo-fisherism-nuts.

He doesn't explicitly say it is rather he in essence says it doesn't work  Yep it is nuts

Monday, 18 February 2019

On the basis of sex Film Review

I went to the movies last might and saw the  movie on the basis of sex.

It was a highly enjoyable movie. Read the link to see all about the movie but in essence it is about Ruth Bader Ginsberg at University ( mainly Harvard but not only Harvard law school) and then working in a very sexist world. She is quite bright no very bright the brightest of the brightest but this does not matter. When she studies law she is a mother and covers lectures for her sick husband ( who it must be said is a very supportive husband.

She eventually makes it to the court of appeals ( one of the advisors to the film was actually one of the judges she presented to). She wins not just one but quite a few cases in which laws actively supported sex discrimination.

Okay sometimes it writing was too long on one subject.I also doubt the young Mrs Bader Ginsburg was as attractive as the actress however overall the film was a beauty.

Sunday, 17 February 2019

Only at Catallaxy

As Roy and HG would say when too much ignorance is barely enough.
Alan Moran fresh from his ill conceived mistakes on electricity goes the full Monty on the Murray Darling problems.
It is only a myth that the rivers are under environmental stress. Scientists find otherwise!
The Government is also DAMNING
Poor old Rafe laments the decline of coal powered power stations. Despite the blackouts in Victoria being caused primarily because a number of units at coal powered power stations could not operate because the extreme heat affected them.
He does not even talk about units vulnerability in very hot weather. Last year units broke down every third day. Most of these can be replaced by other forms of power. This was impossible as in Victoria because good old reliable coal power gives us so much power.
 Sorry I forgot why this is not a problem We are not get hotter. It is all a BOM plot even though their data is open to the public. Woeful conspiracy.

 He also apparently thinks all solar and wind farms are in the same place.

Thursday, 14 February 2019

Around the Traps 15/2/19

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
 vox wonk

Wednesday, 13 February 2019

Health for Refugees again

The government has gone over the top since the legislation was passed. THIS is a good explainer.

Let us go through this again.

The Boat turnback has worked. The boats are still coming as Defence confirmed this in Senate Estimates. The boats are simply being turned back.The government is both proclaiming this but saying it might not work in the future.

Next the Government is saying they are bringing people to Australia for healthcare but it is under the radar. It is so under the radar the Parliamentary library put out a paper  on it. This is why the boats have continued.This is regularly updated.

Next people who come to Australia are in detention.In other words they are still in gaol. They are merely getting treatment they cannot get in either Mannus or Nauru. Moreover Morrison has said he is opening up Christmas Island to any future refugees that need medical help.

Next is that there is no such thing as an illegal refugee. People who have a fear of being killed or  persecuted can attempt to go to any country they wish.

GPs are not specialists. They may be able to diagnose a problem but do not have the expertise to overcome it..This is no different to living in the country. You have to go to a regional centre to see a specialist and sometimes, a lot of times, go to a capital; city for an operation.

If the government is worried about mental health problems growing how about sending some psychiatrists to both places then?

The legislation provides for the Minister to say no i f say the PNG police force say one of the people concerned is  to be charged, is charged a or is strongly suspected of a crime.

Under Dutton's rules Hakeen  ael-Araibai if interned at Mannus or Nauru could not be allowed into Australia as he is a convicted criminal even though the crime was clearly concocted for political reasons.
We know countries such as China, Vietnam, Bahrain, Iran et al do this

The legislation only refers to Asylum seekers and refugees. Given all have been there for the duration of this government we can assume that people are refugees or not refugees.
Hence no person of 'bad' character could be allowed into Australia, No pedophile, rapist or murderer. After all Dutton would not give such people refugee status would he?

Tuesday, 12 February 2019

Hakeem is free at least.

Sorry but I have been out of circulation for a bit.

I have to have my gallbladder out. It is occurring after Cricket season.

Some wonderful news to hear at a time of almost perennial bad news was the freeing of  Hakeem.

THIS gives the gist of what happened.  From the start it was a disgrace on how Bahrain was gaming interpol..

Good on you Fozzie. You deserve a medal.  Should he go into politics in Canberra, perhaps it is not as bad as football internal happenings.

HERE is Fozzie's great rant on the fiasco.

THIS is really interesting

Sunday, 10 February 2019

Give the Refugees decent health Services

Some parliamentarians and a lot of doctors want refugees that have been diagnosed by TWO doctors and need specialist  care only available in Australia to be sent to Australia for that specialist care.

This would seen common sense and one would think why on earth is it not policy now?

Well it seems the Government has a number of reasons. All are specious.

First of all it would send a positive message to people smugglers. Huh?

Can you imagine the marketing they will expounding. Yes you can get to Australia IF you get to Australia, IF you are then on a prison island to all extent and purposes and then get severe mental health problems!!

It also means their messaging on boat turnbacks is paradoxical. IT works now as no boats ever get to Australian shores. Therefore this policy is terrible for people smugglers yet apparently it is not working because the doors would be unlocked as dozens of boats if not more would come and arrive on Australian shores. ( Even when this did occur the government disgracefully  sent the people back to that fantastic democratic country Vietnam.)

So boat turnbacks work well but they also do not!!

Another reason was murderers, paedophiles etc would then come to Australia. A few problems here. firstly you cannot be a refugee and anyone of those things. Secondly you will not the government did not name names.Yes they were demonising refugees yet again. Also important here it the ridiculous assertion that ALL  refugees would come to Australia.  It is both ironic and shameful that no from the government did not recognise if this was true it was THEIR fault.

Surely if you are a simple decent human being you would want your fellow man or woman to get the health care they need.

Thursday, 7 February 2019

Around the Traps 8/2/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 6 February 2019

Hakeem al-Araibi should be set free

The case of Hakeen al-Araibi should be set free. Here is fossie.

The Australian government has recognised the man as a refugee.
This means a number of things.
  • They recognise he was playing football at the time of the 'offence' therefore there was NO offence. you do not grant refugee status to a criminal
  • They recognise he is being persecuted for his beliefs.
This means Interpol should have NEVER had issued a notice for his arrest given the specious charges.
Thailand should be told this man is a refugee and why he is. Following that he should be set free.


This is a perfect case of how countries which are not democratic game interpol to gaol  people for 'political' offences 

Tuesday, 5 February 2019

Greed is not Good

When the movie Wall Street came out the phrase echoed by Gordon Gekko ( magnificently c acted by Michael Douglass)  greed is good was somehow taken up by various apologists for  Capitalism as the phrase to use. These people possibly never realised who wrote the script. He was neither as fan of Capitalism nor  understood how it worked.!

Greed is bad as it produces excesses which either the economy in a macro sense or the corporation will eventually pay for.

In a maco sense if too much income goes towards corporations we will eventually get inflation. I used to argue if too much income went to wages you would get a similar result however labour market de-regulation had made that argument moot. Indeed it could well make the former argument moot.

In a micro sense greed leads to customer dissatisfaction. Even if labour is weak you  will simply get problems in other areas such as turnover, sick leave etc.

In recent times we see greed emanate within the gambling industry where poker machined holder target problem gamblers to make money and now we see recent targeting problem loans in a similar vein.

Australian polity has obviously made a decision they do not care about the obvious obnoxious behaviour by the gambling industry but has made it plain reform of the banking industry is coming.

It is hypocritical behaviour.

Monday, 4 February 2019

Ross Gittins is right

You might expect me to write about the RC into banking today.

No and this is because Ross Gittins has hit the nail on the head. Wages aint going to increase much in the foreseeable future without some legislative help.

This leads one to cogitate on what sort of legislative help  will actually help?

Just before we go there this is the second episode as far as I can see where policy makers did not think through what their change in policy would do.

The first of course was in electricity. Privatising that market had no basis in theory ( it was an essential market) and nor in practice as the markets were not competitive before because the assets were owned by State governments and would not be in future since the industry consisted of oligopolies.

It was Paul Keating who first deregulated  the labour market. This was sensible as at that time it was highly regulated. John Howard re-regulated the labour market in favour of employers. work choices was very 1984ish in its name and most people reccognised this.

Julia Gillard then further de-regulated the labour market.Ever since then many uneducated commentators ( see Catallaxy and particularly Judith Sloan) ( and conservative politicians) have seen umpteen wage explosions coming. They have never . Indeed Union membership has continued to decline.

What this means is that even if you grant greater powers to unions little improvement can be expected.

What we have seen thus far is almost all the improvements in productivity go to employers . Employees has seen little gain here.

So essentially I have to admit i am stumped at what the ALP could do top improve wages when they gain Government. I say the ALP because the Present government has said they will do nothing.

The only positive is employment growth is higher than it would naturally be. As a corollary unemployment is lower.

Sunday, 3 February 2019

The Liberals are vulnerable to small l liberals

There are three seats which the Liberals should have but do not.
They are held essentially by independents who are small liberals not big C conservatives.

This means that both tony Abbott and Greg Hunt are vulnerable. I might add a caveat. I think Abbot is in more danger than Hunt.
Why so?

The ALP gas a shot in Flinders and should run second. I doubt if Julia banks will run second whereas I think the ALP will run dead in Warringah and give preferences to the Independent.

There is no case of a  big C conservative winning a s eat off the Liberals.