Thursday, 31 March 2016

Around the Traps 1/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 30 March 2016

The Football season cometh

Football starts on the weekend.
I am refereeing again but I suspect it could be my last season. My oldest son is going for his Level 3 course and I hope to see him referee some Premier League reserve games this season.
He is actually very good so I am looking forward to see how far he progresses and how good he becomes.

My youngest son both plays and referees . This means there are always car issues.This could prove interesting.

Finding the time to referee, watch one on my sons play football and the other referee. Saturday is going to be very busy during winter!

Tuesday, 29 March 2016

Can The ALP win the next election?

What a lot of people do not realise is that for the ALP to win the next election they will need to get almost 52 % of the 2PP vote!

The brilliant Kevin Bonham explains.

It was a reasonable ask when Tony Abbott was doing his pathetic excuse for acting as PM however given we now have an adult in charge it does look a tall order!

Monday, 28 March 2016

72 has some old but enjoyable viewing

In Sydanee we have several free to air networks. One is channel 7.

 72 is one of the channels the 7 network has and purely by chance I got to watching some shows on the channel and also by chance I got to watch more. Here are my thoughts on some.

A Touch of Frost. an oldie but a goodie. Jack Frost ( I kid you not) is a liable Detective Inspector. Has had some fine guest stars along the way such as Philip Jackson of Poirot fame.

Endeavour  A really great show showing the young Inspector Morse in action. Much much better than Morse.

The Last Detective. Peter Davison known for All Creatures Great and Small and Doctor Who is fantastic as a old fashioned but honest detective.

Jonathan Creek. I saw bits of this on Channel 2 at first but i have started to watch this from the beginning and still enjoyable.

The Inspector Lynley Mysteries. A man of noble means joins the police force and has a working class gal as a partner. Enjoyable to view.

Judge John Deed  . Over-rated. Never thought much of Martin Shaw as an actor. He as a lefty high court judge with title who beds almost any woman he meets was simply ridiculous. Passed up after a few episodes.

Murdoch Mysteries  No not why an elderly unattractive man keeps on getting married but a Canadian detective in the late 19th century in Toronto Canada, Only problem is the half hour episodes. Not long enough to develop the theme.

Inpsector Morse.  Like Martin Shaw I never has time for John Thaw as an actor however his sidekick Lewis made the series for me.

Lewis. He gets his own series and it is really enjoyable. his offsider studied theology at Oxford and is quite the intellectual and  poor socially but they make a great team. Still like viewing the repeats.

The Indian Doctor. An Indian doctor turns up in a welsh village. Interesting series and his wife is a stunner!

Saturday, 26 March 2016

The Resurrection is essential

Easter is the most important point of the Calendar for Christians.

It is so because if it never occurred then Christianity is a complete fraud.
Jesus could rise from the dead because he was without sin. To do this he had to be God ( without sin) and be man ( represent mankind).
Thus his death on the cross was the punishment for all sinners whom believe in him.
We know this occurred because he walked around for 40 days so we have heaps of eyewitnesses. We also knew this because the Jewish elite who hated Jesus would have been shown him to be dead and thus killed off ( pun intended) this subversive sect as they saw it.
Because of the many eyewitnesses they could not do this.
We also have the radical change in behaviour of his apostles. When he dies on the cross they were scared, hid from the Authorities etc. Once they confirmed the resurrection they completely changed. They were willing to die for him!

One last thing. He dies on Friday the first day and rose from the dead on the third day, The first day of the week ( not the Sabbath) Sunday.
I see some people like to the first day is not the first but day 0.

Sunday is not day 0 of the week but day 1.

Thursday, 24 March 2016

Around the Traps 25/3/16 Good Friday Edition

It is time for Around the Traps. Brussels articles in Europe section.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Monday, 21 March 2016

A double dissolution?

Well it appears Malcolm Turnbull surprised a lot of people with is recall of parliament after it was prorogued. Rather strange if these two bills are so important the government did not bring up their importance when Parliament was sitting.

M'Lord Parish writes about this here.Also read his thoughts on this as well.

It seems to me if the Opposition is determined they could easily make it hard for the finance bills to go through both houses.
On this and other related items see Antony Green. Here and here.
A good explainer here as well.

I have to say I do think most people will not change and any Government will not have a majority in the Senate. If Nick Xenophon has a ticket in NSW then I shall be voting for that. I shall vote for the Liberals again in the lower house despite a deplorable candidate and then vote for the ALP in the election after that assuming they lose this one.

Turnbull great weakness is he can be too smart by half , Add his shocking political judgement then the election could well be more interesting than most think.

Thursday, 17 March 2016

Around the Traps 18/3/16

It is time for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
  • nuttin as yet
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

vox wonk

Wednesday, 16 March 2016

End of the Cricket Season

This weekend sees the end of the Cricket season for me.

I am umpiring in both the Junior and Senior finals. It is sad as I do enjoy umpiring.

It is interesting the I am more of a football fan than cricket fan yet I do not like refereeing but I do enjoy umpiring and being part of the committee for the local association.

I am hoping we get enough rain to have green wickets on the weekend and enough sun to dry the rain out.

It would make for difficult batting and umpiring but very enjoyable as well.

We shall see.

Tuesday, 15 March 2016

Global Warming basics

This is a tad old but Tamino did a great article on global-warming-basics-whats-has-changed.

If you have never ventured into the topic this is a great place to start.  

Monday, 14 March 2016

Mark the Ballot has a good rant

Mark the Ballot  has a very good rant on polling methodology being used here in OZ ( indeed anywhere). It is well worth reading.

thanks Mark!!

Sunday, 13 March 2016

New England becomes interesting

The seat of New England held by Barnaby Joyce has become interesting for a number of reasons.

Last election no-one but no-one wanted to listen to Tony Windsor and why he thought the ALP should have been in government after the 2010 election. He was vilified for his decision.
After a few years of Tony Abbott being Prime minister He is now vindicated.

Both ex-ante and now ex-post his decision is seen as quite wise. the voters now seen they were wood-ducked on the last election. Joyce being one of the main people behind that.
Joyce is now deputy PM. He can't say I support this but the government went against me.People are also now seeing him as a carpet bagger now given he is not a local.

Life is becoming interesting particularly since Turnbull has lost his mojo.

Thursday, 10 March 2016

Around the Traps 11/3/16

It is time for Around the Traps.  Stimulating article on the clitoris in the Dianne Coyle section!!
Updating on Saturday and Sunday nights as Cricket semi-finals are on.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle  (quirky + book reviews)
vox wonk

Wednesday, 9 March 2016

What would a Trump Presidency look like?

I have been asked numerous times what a Trump presidency look like.
Some people have said since Trump is a deal maker he should be good in the Whitehouse.

Whoa there.
Business deals and political deals are two vastly different beasts. For one thing Trump is personally involved in his business deals whereas Presidents rarely get directly involved in political deals. He leaves that to his staff. Who would be his staff??

Who would be his :

  • Chief of Staff
  • Treasury Secretary
  • Secretary of State
We do not know.

Therefore anyone who states quite confidently they know what a Trump presidency would like is simply lying through their teeth.

No-one knows and will not know until we know who would fill important posts in hiss Administration.

Tuesday, 8 March 2016

A Double Dissolution would be couragoues

It seems as though Malcolm wants a double dissolution.

The precedents are not good.
Consider the following:

  • The precedents are not good . One only has to look at when Government changed in the northern Territory and Western Australia to see that.
  • They have no reason. Do you know what the trigger is?
  • The punters do not like going to the polls early. risky.
  • The punters do not like voting in winter particularly if it is raining.
  • Threatening a double dissolution when you are falling in the polls simply does not make sense.
  • A long campaign is usually bad for the government. Ask Bob Hawke.
  • You would need to bring on the budget earlier than usual. The ALP could make merry in Parliament and quite possibly deny the government the means to an early election.
Normally I would vote to keep the same Government but an early election would see me vote the opposite way.

What do I think will occur?  Turnbull has traditionally had poor judgement so?I thin he will go early.

Monday, 7 March 2016

Christians and Politics

I take the view if you are a Christian then there is no point going into politics unless you are going to be like William Wilberforce.

An ambitious Christian is an oxymoron. Joseph's conduct in Egypt is what Christians should aspire to in all aspects of life.

In recent times we have had in Australia John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott all tell us very loudly how they were Christians.

However when I observe their conduct then I see little difference between them and Julia Gillard who most definitely was not a Christian.

This to me tells me if people who claim to be Christian go into politics then they succumb to worldly views very early and they always supersede biblical views.
Moreover the offices of both Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott were not known for working in a Christian environment.

Therefore it seems to me if a person is a Christian and wants to remain living to those views politics is most certainly not a place to go to.

Sunday, 6 March 2016

Abbott/Credlin who cares?

In a new book it is alleged quite a few people believed Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin were having an affair. Steve from Brisbane has been banging on this for quite some time.

There have been rumours about Prime minsters having affairs outside marriage since Harold Holt was PM.

The only credence I would put on them is Holt, yes, Gorton and Hawke most definitely . all the rest no.

In a political sense who cares. I would agree their morality is shown to be of a very low ebb and of the three only Hawke was a good if not outstanding PM but in politics the only thing that matters is does it affect Australian polity.

to me what is important out of the book is that both Abbott and Credlin were at the time and still are utterly delusional.Abbott thinks he can do a Churchill. say no more.

It is important to note that each time Abbott make a public effort in recent times either to defend the government he led or criticise the present government he was shown to be utterly wrong whether it be the fiscal position or submarines.

When history is written the worst thing the ALP did in government was to allow Abbott to become the worst PM in our history ( or perhaps second worst after Bruce). It does show just how poor politicians they were,