Thursday, 30 January 2014

Around the Traps 31/1/14

It is time for Around the Traps again and its another cracking edition. The wonk and climate sections are really interesting, Andrew Gelman is on fire (in a statistically significant way of course.Does he ever sleep?) and Voxwonk is full of interesting articles as usual.
Big Bad Dave Giles is on strike apparently!

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Stats Man!)
Dave Giles ( Econometrics???)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky +Book Reviews)

Tuesday, 28 January 2014


In recent times we have become aware of two allegations.

  1. One set was made by asylum seekers against the Navy
  2. Another more recently was made against people in the building industry.

In both case the media did its proper job and reported the allegations.

Both set of allegations need to be investigated to find out if there is any veracity in them.
If there are then action needs to be taken.
If there are not again action needs to be taken.

People who state one set of allegations should have never been allowed on the media are simply bereft of common sense!
update. It appears the PM is bereft of common sense.He is losing more than his hair!

further update. It seems this is the line by Steve Kates who we know is mentally unbalanced. Say no more!

Monday, 27 January 2014

Castle -Series 6 thus far

Well just to start with here were my thoughts prior to Series 6.

and then this after series 6 started.
Yes a little repetitious but then it had to be. 

Firstly season 6 has been overall pretty good. Once you take out the first two dreadful episodes concerning the DC job where it appeared to be a different series to Castle and the awful Alexis episode ( where the writers had the appalling taste to put Father and Daughter building theory together. This is foreplay for Caskett!) there has been only one episode which I rate boring. The very last one. Some of the episodes have been absolute ball-tearers. ( The time traveller being my favourite.) Marlowe wrote a fantastic episode!

Secondly and very surprisingly the first arc of series 6 showed that Beckett was stupid, selfish, self-centred and very fickle in accepting the job. We had confirmation she did NO homework before accepting the job and didn't think of the consequences once she started.Hence all my criticisms were actually confirmed although I very much doubt that Marlowe was aware of what he was doing.
We had the pathetic sight of Castle attempting to remedy the situation by saying he bought an apartment in DC as he can write anywhere. Only problem is he had no evidence for this. He wrote his first best-seller at Uni and then wrote at the Old Haunt until he bought the Loft,. That is where he writes now. Indeed he has said  in a number of episodes. ( Don't any of these writers look at the previous episodes of Castle to provide consistency in the canon!)

Thirdly Stana cannot hold centre stage on her own. With Castle in the background in the first two episodes it was very boring. Contrast that to Headhunters in series 4. Nathan can hold his own!

Fourthly Beckett has completely changed in her attitude with regard to the Caskett relationship. It appears to have happened after her DC failure however this is only strongly implied. We do not know for sure. Moreover if she hasn't learned any lessons from this failure then she will do it again. hence viewers need to know.

I can see this series getting better and better as the wedding approaches. 
Here's hoping and keep Marlowe well away from that episode!

Sunday, 26 January 2014

Steve Kates Mad , Bad and unable to tell the truth

Steve Kates is at it again.

In this ignorant rant he says this.
'The European economies, and Australia as well, emerged from the Great Depression faster than we have today because they used classical theory and policy to work things out. The UK famously balanced its budget in 1933, at the very trough of the Great Depression. We cut spending here in 1931 and was the first economy to come out of the Great Depression with the Australian trough being reached in 1932 from which time things continually improved.'

Okay , let us examine the US under Roosevelt. When the New Deal was implemented the US experienced growth of nearly double digits. The US then went into recession when Roosevellt adopted classical economics and performed the largest fiscal change in his administration. Yeah that's right the largest change in fiscal policy by Roosevelt was not deficit spending but getting the budget into the black.

Now Australia we examined here.  Please note what happens to the economy after the balanced budget of 1931. 
After GROWING at 1.7% it then reduces GDP by 2.6%.

Thus Steve joins fellow Catallaxy writer Julie Novak as a complete liar about Australia in the Depression.

Please note the reasons for the recovery. nothing to do with classical economics indeed quite the opposite!

Australia's unemployment rate never got below 8%. sound like full employment to you. no not to anyone literate in economics actually.

Steve actually doesn't mention Germany. The ONLY country to get to FULL employment following the Depression. I wonder why?
Poor old Bruning. He followed those classical economics policies advocated by Hayek and it brought disaster and worse. Hitler.
so the ONLY advertisement for classical economics is that it gave us Hitler.
It is no wonder Steve is mad!
just as an added bonus. 
The official costs of Austerity in europe!

Really is there any further evidence people at Catallaxy are brain dead.  ( Thanks Steve from Brisbane)

Saturday, 25 January 2014

Carly Simon Again

I know it has been a long time for some music but I have been busy.
A fantastic reaction to the last Carly Simon song so here is another one most would not have heard of.

I am willing to bet Carly never had a problem either!

Thursday, 23 January 2014

Around the Traps 24/1/14

It is time for Around the Traps.
no cricket at all this week so updating will be easy.
Noah Smith obviously had no Christmas, there are quite a few econometric articles besides Our Dave writing and David Glasner has a great article.
Interesting article on various guises of Keynesianism by OZ's own John Quiggin.
voxwonk always interesting.

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (Stats)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

Wednesday, 22 January 2014

Interest rates will be rising.

The Kouk examines the CPI  and doesn't like it. and for good reason.on a six month annualised basis the RBA preferred measure is now running at 3%. Moreover as the Kouk says the-rba-inflation-forecasts-hit-for-six . 
This means the RBA will have no option but to increase interest rates.

I might say my sympathies are with the forecasters here. Given that wage growth is minimal one would not have expected such large increases in the September and December quarters.

Joe Hockey has blamed the carbon tax. This means he doesn't know what was in the MYEFO!

Monday, 20 January 2014

How to price Bonds

The Kouk has a great article on heres-why-italian-bond-yields-are-lower-than-australia.

It is all about how to price bonds.

The Kouk was in the fixed income market for quite a long time with TD securities ( The Australian offshoot of Toronto Dominion Bank).
He therefore knows quite a lot about the market.

It is an informative article for those who do not know how bonds are priced.

You cannot price shares without first pricing Government bonds!

Sunday, 19 January 2014

Why cannot Sinclair Davidson simply admit he was wrong?

Sometime ago Sinclair Davidson made a very silly prediction that Australia would experience Stagflation.

Now just read the article and then take a time to ponder did he get anything right?

Well no.
 Instead of stagflation we in fact got deflation when the terms of trade fell quite a bit. Indeed there were times Real GDP was larger than Nominal GDP in some quarters.
No sign of nominal GDP falling below trend in this article. No sign that this is the reason why unemployment would rise.

Thus when M0nty provokes Davidson into asking why his prediction was  so wrong here   it was interesting to note Davidson's reaction.

He essentially says he got it right.  If we are to take him at his word then that would mean he is patently mad like Kastesy however given his history I think we can merely note he is incapable of saying he got it wrong,badly wrong.

Fortunately those of us that can read know how badly he got it wrong and why he got it so badly wrong!

How ironic the site that gives me more ( many more in fact) pageviews than any other site is Catallaxy

Thursday, 16 January 2014

Around the Traps 17/1/14

It is time for Around the Traps.

Boys are away so plenty of time to update on the weekend.

Northern  America
nuttin again

Andrew Gelman ( Stats Guru)
Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

Tuesday, 14 January 2014

The Budget

The Kouk looks at what we oldies used to know as the Niemeyer statement and finds the-budget-deficit-remains-well-contained.
Indeed there has been a slight improvement since PEFO.

Thus either Messrs Hockey and Cormann do not understand their jobs and are ignorant or they do and they are liars.This is widely known as the Catallaxy 'defence'

Thursday, 9 January 2014

Around the Traps 11/1/14

It is time for Around the Traps.
I will update Saturday and Sunday

Northern America

Andrew Gelman ( Stats Guru)
Dave Giles A genial econometric genius)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + Book Reviews)

Wednesday, 8 January 2014

Monetary policy versus Fiscal Policy.

Simon Wren-Lewis is mystified why some people wish to downgrade the usefulness of fiscal policy when there is a liquidity trap.
Mark Thoma shows how-to-tell-if-fiscal-policy-works.  Brad De Long hops in as well.

Given all the evidence of how potent fiscal policy is ( see the IMF but also Adam Posen on Japan both of which have been highlighted here)  I can think of only two reasons.
The person saying this is stark raving mad like Katesy or they are simply playing politics.

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

The Hobbitt

I saw the second film in the Hobbitt series last night with my two boys.

It is highly enjoyable and action packed. Thus like the first film it is completely different to the book.

However as with the first film that is why it is enjoyable.

Dr John Watson is really good as Bilbo.

Recommended to see!

Sunday, 5 January 2014

The best article on Global Warming of last year

Real Climate is a great blog and near the end of the year produced an excellent article on global warming. On whether it had stopped, what the reasons affecting it were, looking at the future et al.

It was in Around the Traps but if you missed it then you can read it here.

It is a New Years present.

Thursday, 2 January 2014

Around the Traps 3/1/14 New Years edition

It is time for the First Around the Traps in 2014.

The Kouk,Matt Cowgill and Nick rowe obviously didn't do a lot of celebrating!!

I will update over the Weekend!

Northern America
nuttin, still celebrating

Andrew Gelman(Statistics)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky and Book reviews)

Wednesday, 1 January 2014

why the name Not Trampis

Trampas was my favourite person the greatest western ever made The Virginian.

now I am sure someone has Trampas somewhere in the blogosphere but no-one has Trampis and of course that means I must be not trampis!!

Get it!

Only Tony the Teacher realised this and of course he loves cricket