Saturday, 27 December 2014

On Holidays

I am going down to the Snowy with the family so nothing from me for about a week.
The wife has banned computers and using the internet.
Thus NO Around the Traps this week!

Thursday, 25 December 2014

Around the Traps boxing day Edition 26/12/14

Merry Chrsitmas Christmas even, It is time for Around the Traps again.
Given the holidays this will be updated, if it needs to be, at leisure over the weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Nuttin from Dave.Its Christmas you know!

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 24 December 2014

Merry Christmas

My church did a wonderful rendition of Dr Seuss meets the new Testament. It was both a hoot and a great teaching vehicle.

I have a confession I don't like most Christmas carols but  This is the best song written of all time by Handel.

Have a great one.

Jesus was born to die for us. Until he rose from the dead no-one realised this. Thomas was correct when he said ' My Lord and My God"

Tuesday, 23 December 2014

John Robertson departs

I was never a fan of John Robertson however I agree with the Pollbludger in that he has resigned because he 'performed a routine bit of electorate work in 2011 on behalf of constituent Man Haron Monis'

The NSW ALP have to choose a new leader in early January. Daly appears to have it in the bag but he is not impressive either.  The NSW right really do not have a lot of talent around at the moment and as Mumble continually shows know bugger all about interpreting polls.

Mumble has now written on this. I can't see Luke Foley getting up as he is from the left wing of the party.

Monday, 22 December 2014

Cabinet Reshuffle

Tony Abbott has made a cabinet reshuffle. The Pollbludger has it all.
Here is Mumble's take on it.

I find it fascinating that the Government has been hauled from breakfast to dinner over its 'unfair' ,measures. Kevin Andrews as minister for social services must take a lot of the blame for that yet gets transferred to Defence. Some say it is even a promotion. I am with Mumble on what it means for Scott Morrison. A nimble way to get rid of threats.

Sunday, 21 December 2014

Economic Wonkery

There were some great articles  in Around the Traps for those that like in depth discussion of economics.
These are mainly dealing with monetary policy and variations thereof.

Paul Krugman

Nick Rowe

Edward Lambert
David Glasner    (late but very welcome he links David Beckworth's great aerticle to boot)

Poltergeist is expelled and all links work now. Thanks M0nty

Thursday, 18 December 2014

Around the Traps 19/12/2014

It is time for Around the Traps again.
I have a family Christmas do on Saturday so will update on Sunday!

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 17 December 2014

What is Terrorism?

Was the Sydney siege terrorism? Sinclair Davidson lays into people who think it wasn't  but of course he won't define the term nor will Gerry Jackson

Well you have to define it
Here are some
This is possibly the BEST

So looking at all these definitions it is very hard to say the Sydney siege was an act of terrorism.

Happy to be to wrong though

THIS is good  THIS is even better

The Government this year in the polls

No need to write anything on how the government is travelling in the polls.

The inimitable Kevin Bonham had already done this and done it well!

Tuesday, 16 December 2014

Reactions to MYEFO

Here are three four thus far.

1. Greg Jericho
2. Mumble
3. Judith Sloan
4.The Kouk

One is really stupid as you might expect from someone who said on national TV that the NBN was not on the National balance sheet. ( She never reads budget papers.)

Why is it stupid you ask? Well if you cut spending as she wishes we have seen this done.
Swan's last budget ( that is the one he had full responsibility for) saw NOMINAL spending cut not just real spending. This budget was the tightest in budget history. It detracted 0.7 percentage points.
A strong memory is not one of  her assets.

Did the Economy fully recover?

No. the economy got weaker and the deficit this got bigger.
It didn't help that whilst commodity prices fell  the $A didn't!

Isn't it funny a political commentator knows more about economics than her? Well no it isn't!

Monday, 15 December 2014

MYEFO or Hockey reaps what he has sowed.

Yesterday when the siege was occurring in Sydney Joe Hockey released MYEFO.

It is pretty well I expected particularly since it had been leaked!

I am not going to argue with Ross Gittins or Peter Martin and again.

Quite clearly  Hockey thought when he got into office the economy would be starting to grow more strongly and hey presto no deficit.
As it is he is now repeating Wayne Swan's line of having a revenue shortfall which he regularly criticised. He also has wages growing much less than thought. Impossible if the labour was re-regulated by the ALP!
He now looks even more foolish.

I can't help commenting on THIS.

No comment from Davidson that Swan actually cut spending as he earnestly wants and produced the tightest budget we have ever seen. Well that is understandable as he called that budget expansionary.
Only problem is it contributed to a weaker economy.
Davidson never learns from history which is why he is wrong most of the time!

Thank you Mark the Graph

I said some time ago I could not get to see the Excellent Mark the Graph blog.

I can now Yippee.

This means I can also access the also excellent Mark the Ballot blog as well.

I can leave those blue pills now!!

Sunday, 14 December 2014

The 'RIGHT' have no shame at all

H L Colebatch  wrote a book about how the unions 'hampered' the war effort in WW2.

This is a pretty good summary of it all.

It seems to me Mr Colebatch's claim that unionists would not 'touch the HMS Speaker and thus around 600 Australian POWs were cooped up in the ship for 36 hours says it all for the book..

Mike Carlton excoriates Colebatch on this claim.

Can you believe Colebatch wrote this on the 'memory' of ONE POW.
What normal people would do historians, journalists etc would be check this out with other POWs and newspapers.
Carlton has actually done this and guess what. It NEVER occurred.

Nevertheless this piece of garbage is being publicised by the usual suspects.Here is an example.
Katesy has a good excuse thought. He is a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic as we have seen in the past.

What is it with the truth and the 'right'. Why is it they simply need to lie all the time?

Some have already gone the way of Goebbels and other are certainly on the way. In the end Goebbels could tell the difference between his lies and reality!

Saturday, 13 December 2014


quite easily the best song ACDC ever did was It a long way to the shop if you want a chiko roll.


I had no idea Molly Meldrum organised all this.

Greatest Aussie rock song of all time!!

Thursday, 11 December 2014

Around the Traps 12/12/14

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Sunday is free so will update then,

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 10 December 2014

Test Cricket

Tony and the boys discuss the first test here.

The Indian bowling coach must be tearing his hair out.

Tuesday, 9 December 2014

The Goverrnment's 'new' change to medicare

The Government made 'changes' to Medicare.
Instead of making Doctors charge $5 each time you have to see them they will do it by the back door. They will reduce payments to Doctors by $5 thus essentially making doctors charge patients by the same $5.

There are a few problems here.

1) what is the use of introducing a price to these services if it is NOT to reduce the 'debt and deficit disaster'?
2) The rise in medicare costs have come from Hospitals not doctors at all.
3) people usually only go to the doctor when they are sick. Queues which costs people time has an effect on consumers!
4) The government has said visits to the GP has to be 10 minutes. What happens if you have to go to a GP to get a referral. At my age I see a skin specialist every 6 months. How is getting a referral going to last 10 minutes?
5) when GPs are unable to bulk bill and thus most patients have to pay $5 whom does the government think the GPs are going to say is responsible?
6) Everybody will be watching the Senate to see if they reject this. What happens if they do?

All in all not a lot of thinking has gone into this.

Peter Martin explains the logic. and more
Jim Gillespie tells us it is deja vu all over again.

Here is the Grattan Institute and Jeff Richardson

Monday, 8 December 2014

Abbott's excuses are specious

Steve from Brisbane  writes critically ( as usual) about Tony Abbott.

When asked why he broke his promises Abbott says circumstances changed.The budget was worse than he thought.

Unfortunately He either does not know about the Charter of Budget Honesty or he is clearly lying about it. This is ironic as he was part of the government that introduced this legislation.

The Charter of Budget Honesty has in it the release of PEFO. This is a statement by the Departments of Treasury and finance about how the budget is and where it is going.

We can see how the new government changed assumptions and also some spending and taxing decisions in the MYEFO.

As one can see the Government forced changes on the Departments as is their right. They also contributed to the deficit getting larger and then blamed the previous government.

Abbott is merely continuing to lie about lying which has made them quite unpopular and continues to do so. It appears the punters have a reasonable grasp on what the books were like and know Abbott is incorrect in what he says.

Again it is highly ironic that the more Abbott repeats this mantra the more he is distrusted.

What the punters have not discerned as yet is that budget blow-outs can occur simply because of changed economic assumptions not because of deliberate Government action. Hence they are not accepting The Government's explanation of why the Budget is blowing out and why it is not important is simply not resonating. What has the electorate in total confusion is the difference in what the government is now saying about the Budget they are in government and what they were saying in Opposition.

Again this is highly ironic.

Sunday, 7 December 2014

Has there been a pause in world temperatures?

There has been quite a lot of talk about a pause or hiatus in world temperatures.

Well Tamino and Real Climate beg to differ.

They have pretty good arguments.
If you think that temperatures are cooling you are either innumerate or an imbecile!

Tamino again

Thursday, 4 December 2014

Around the Traps 5/12/14

It is time for Around the Traps. Cricket on Saturday and Sunday so perhaps rain will help me update.
Tamino is back bigtime showing how there hasn't been a pause in world temperatures and even better Ricardian Ambivalence is calling for the RBA to cut rates.

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox Wonk