Ukraine

One interesting development in this war is how Ukraine has completely tied up crimea. Ukraine drones have made roadkill of trucks transporting ammunition, oil, food etc on the M14. All the ferries are unusable and the Kerch bridge is standing but no truck can drive over it because of the damage. It is interesting Ukraine has not destroyed the bridge because they can.

Ukraine has destroyed most of the radar system in  crimea. This means it is much easier to destroy airfields, planes, tanks etc in crimea as well as allowing ukraine to have drone sorties into russia through this area.

Russia has a strong heartfelt feeling towards crimea. This is why they have not given up any territory there. They are transferring valuable resources to crimea from other areas which ukraine note and then attacks.

In normal times russia would sue for peace to keep crimea and well before people start getting out of there. Like Trump with Iran, Putin will not be able to explain such a peace deal and he cannot afford to have people from crimea fleeing the place.

I suspect without any expertise that Putin has to continue the war in the hope he will eventually win. He will not get accurate information only information his subordinates thinks he wants to hear. This is the problem a dictator has. Putin's background is in intelligence not the military hence his numerable mistakes in the war.

How will it all end? I suspect Putin will be replaced at some time. Perhaps his successor will bring tol ight how much he has stolen from his people. How does a former KGB officer end up a billionaire with multiple country estates?

We shall see