Before I start here are some articles:
- farrer-by-election-live
- view-from-the-hill-post-farrer-liberals-will-struggle-with-awkward-questions-about-their-relations-with-one-nation
- with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate-farrer-success-in-victoria-and-federally
- ignore-the-polls-one-nation-is-the-unofficial-opposition
Let us put this into perspective. One Nation has taken a seat from Liberal heartland and made it a safe one nation seat.
This is despite a miserable campaign from their candidate and one nation having to 'release from staff a convicted rapist. ( Imagine the furore if albo had to get rid of an convicted rapist on their staff!).
Nothing stuck. voters did not care
The independent candidate was labelled a teal because wait for it she took some money from climate 200. Did her policies mirror those of Teal mp's? Well no.
Thus you had sheer hypocrisy. Criticising the one nation candidate was a personal attack but doing it to the independent candidate was fair game.
This result means that in the regions there is no safe Liberal or National seat. One Nation on this result will take a lot of 'safe' LNP seats. ( remember what I said about Littleproud resigning!). The Nationals will become a rump party!
The more the Liberals ( and Nationals) advocate one nation type policies the more their safe city seats become 'Tealy'.
Do the math. It is possible one nation becomes the largest party after the next election. However one problem for one nation is that preferences will flow to them from either the Liberals or Nationals in regional australia however it is doubtful this will be as consistent in the outer western seats. Just remember a person voting Liberal will know preferences is now not just an academic exercise!
The major question now is whether voters will overlook one nation quirks and failures. They clearly did not do this with Farley and with at least one candidate in the SA election. At present they do not get interviewed by anyone who is not seen as sympathetic to them.
We live in interesting times
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