Okay here are two great articles from the Lowy Institute on the topic.
My view is Putin is no idiot so invading Ukraine would be very costly economically, socially, militarily.
Again my guess is simply recognising the two breakaway states will be enough. He knows Ukraine wants no part with him and distrusts him.
The West should have done something better when Russia invaded the Ukraine and took their territory previously. He can now walk away and say he has won.
I should have added China will be looking closely here. Just remember however the USA has said it will come to Taiwan's defence if any country attacks them. This is not the case with Ukraine
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