Mark the Ballot is a genius or election prognostications

We all must acknowledge the absolute genius of Mark the Ballot. He sniffed there was a problem with the polls and he was right.
As he rightly says there was both a poling and betting failure. Adrian Beaumont has a little in THIS on the polling failure. Mark the Ballot comes in late with this link which as you might expect very good.
Now Brian Schmidt. wow

We certainly need a good study into why the polls ,both public and party, were so wrong. I certainly find it ironic that people who were so certain before the election of why the ALP would win because of the polls and now equally very certain of why they lost without any data to support them.

If the quantitative  polling is so wrong then why would not the qualitative poling be of any use??

I got this from Peter Brent courtesy of Steve  from Brisbane.

Just as in 1993 I had to tell Liberal supporters that they could well win the next election I do so again to ALP supporters now.
why? well Ross Gittins and Peter Martin.
Morrrison was like Keating in 1993.He thought he was gone so he promised a future that won't happen.
In Keating's case it was tax cuts without pain. He actually increased indirect taxes far more than Hewson was going to.
In Morrison's case he has to deal with a slowing economy in which the budget can only be in surplus!! What happens when the economy is not strong and rates are cut twice and that surplus is still not there,
He also has very expensive tax cuts which treasury projections show are matched by very large expenditure cuts. No-one but no-one can sell that more so when he essentially said they were painless tax cuts just like Keating.
I am in the Adani will never actually produce anything as it is uneconomic. either way by the next election it will be seen as hyperbole.
Climate change if anything will gain in importance. Very hot days will have a number of units at coal fired power stations dropping out and thus more black outs. for a; b ut the climate denier nutters this and the lower cost of renewables will see the liberals under pressure as their neanderthal wing obstructs any change in their policy.

Now onto the ALP's loss.
Reasons put up are:

• Tax credits   only problem here is that ONLY applied to ACTUAL self funded retirees and there aint a lot of them. Perhaps some pensioners also thought it applied to them but no-one is saying that.
• Negative Gearing   Here again it was only applying to prospective speculators not current ones. Perhaps some renters thought rents would strongly rise as a result BUT we do not know as yet
• High Spending and High Taxing  Did Morrison';s attach hit the mark here.My gut feeling says yes but again we need data.
• Climate Change  I haven't heard anyone say this was a negative as yet.but I suspect we will.
• Bill Shorten   He was too unpopular to win. Two answers to that. tony Abbott was more unpopular than Bill and who said he was so unpopular? the polls.!!
•  Adani  It is possible to make this argument BUT why then di the rest of QLD vote the same way?

Could the ALP played it differently?

Of course.

It is very easy to show how wealthy a person is getting a superannuation pension plus franking credits yet they not only pay NO tax but get money back from the government. It is middle class welfare at its worst.

It again is very easy to paint people who negatively  gear as speculators who make the housing cycles worse..

There was two arguments against high expenditure and tax. Emphasise again and again that the economy did not die under John Howard and those were the levels they were targeting and make opportunity cost the reason for the program. If you want pensioners ot have free dental care or to have much reduced cancer treatments then  LOUDLY say this is the way we wish to for rather than the government way of cutting expenditure.

In terms of climate change if the Government wanted to argue Fisher's figures then show how his figures for their policy was not that different to the ALP's. Show time and time again that the lowest cost provider for electricity is solar PV

Lastly on a leader it seems to me it has to be Tony Burke. as much as i loathe him he is easily the best communicator  both in parliament and out of it.

I have concentrated on the ALP because like in 1993 they lost the election with the much better policies.