A prediction on the US mid-term elections

Stats GURU and generally all round good guy Andrew Gelman who it must be said has the best blog for keeping up to date on your stats education which has wallowed since finishing University has had two posts on the above subject.

They are:

• party-balancing-explain-midterm-elections
• whats-gonna-happen-2018-midterm-elections

My thinking for what it is worth is we have already seen huge swings in special elections held thus far.

If any President needs party balancing it is the present one.

Trump was and is a minority voted  President.

Hence I think it is a pretty fair bet the House and/or the Senate will switch back to the Democrats. 

I think a fair amount of republicans would think this is a good thing.

You would think (hope?) this behaviour of trump might have an impact