The Biden Boom

 noah smith at noahopinion ( get it?) has a very interesting article on the-biden-boom.

Whaddyathink?

Around the Traps 7/1/22

 It is time for Around the Traps in this new year.

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on like-songs-best-graphs-tell-stories
• Chris Wallace on cabinet-papers-2001-how-securitisation-became-a-mindset-to-dominate-australian-politics-for-a-generation
• Hugh White on ssn-vs-ssk
• Mark the Graph on christmas-2021-complete-set-of-covid-charts-for-Australia
• Mark the Ballot on pymc
• Ross Gittins on there-are-many-ways-to-stuff-up-productivity
• Armarium Interreta on do-outlier-polls-tend-to-get-it-right
• renew economy on all-signs-point-to-a-quick-transition-to-renewables-but-can-we-connect-them, nsw-lays-out-details-of-grand-plan-to-lock-in-wind-and-solar-and-exit-coal, australia-is-racing-towards-100-per-cent-renewables-what-does-that-look-like
• Julieanne Lamond on ministerial-interference-is-an-attack-on-academic-freedom-and-australias-literary-culture
• Mark Kenny on morrisons-political-judgement-goes-missing-on-rapid-antigen-test-debacle
• Raina MacIntyre on from-covid-control-to-chaos-what-now-for-australia-two-pathways-lie-before-us
• Ian Wright on sydneys-dams-may-be-almost-full-but-dont-relax-because-drought-will-come-again
• Richard Holden on capitol-assault-the-real-reason-trump-and-the-crowd-almost-killed-us-democracy
• Denis Muller on as-covid-rips-through-australia-is-scott-morrisons-media-strategy-starting-to-fail-as-well
• Jonathan Karnon et al on free-rapid-antigen-tests-makes-economic-sense-for-governments-our-analysis-shows
• Institutional economics on frydenberg-green-lights-an-independent

Northern America

• Zack Beauchamp on democracy-trump-january-6-capitol-riot-election-violence
• Menzie Chinn on latest-statistics-on-covid-19-hospitalizations-fatality-rates-and-speculation
• Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rackich on why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm
• the time of monsters on the-famous-and-the-unread
• Calculated Risk on questions-for-2022
• Daniel Cox on why-the-republican-party-isnt-concerned-with-popularity
• Ayman Ismail on january-6-capitol-riot-arrests-research-profile
• David Remnick on is-a-civil-war-ahead
• Brad De Long on i-cannot-believe-there-are-still-economists-riding-the-trump-train
• Stephen Reicher et al on capitol-assault-the-real-reason-trump-and-the-crowd-almost-killed-us-democracy
• Andrew Prokop on january-6-trump-2024-insurrection-election-big-lie
• Sean Illing on january-6-capitol-insurrection-conservatism-sam-adler-bell
• Nicole Lewis on insurrectionists-victims-banality-of-evil
• noahopinion on america-needs-immigration-to-grow-and-thrive
• Julia Azari on why-more-republicans-arent-outraged-by-jan-6

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-evidence-and-consensus-among-economist-is-growing-over-time

Asia

• noahopinion on chinas-economic-woes-an-opportunity
• Tyler Cowen on is-the-beijing-consensus-collapsing

Wonk

• Brad De Long on south-african-omicron-mortality
• Tim Harford on buy-a-coal-mine-drive-a-gas-guzzler-and-other-uses-of-reverse-logic
• noahopinion on why-price-controls-are-a-bad-tool-for-fighting-inflation
• stumbling and mumbling on class-sympathy-solidarity
• the conversable economist on are-subtractions-underrated, how-personal-experience-leaves-a-mark
• Claire Collins on 4-plant-based-foods-to-eat-every-week-and-why-science-suggests-theyre-good-for-you
• Menzie Chinn on a-global-supply-chain-pressure-index
• Vincent Bevins on brazil-turns-lula-returns

General

• Vanessa Piroata on thar-she-blows-an-experts-guide-to-whale-watching-101

Climate

• David Appell on just-nice-chart
• Peter Sinclair on 2021-temperature-records-now-coming-in
• Andrew Freedman on earth-fifth-warmest-year

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• i-dont-want-crowd-peer-review-or-whatever-you-want-to-call-it-he-said-its-just-too-burdensome-and-id-rather-have-a-more-formal
  
• the-gullibility-connection-how-does-joe-rogan-and-more-generally-the-joe-rogans-in-the-media-decide-where-to-be-skeptical-and-where-to-be-credulous
  
• im-unhappy-to-report-that-i-anticipated-the-future
  
• what-works-in-a-talk-what-doesnt-work
  
• theranos-built-a-unicorn-and-we-just-built-a-better-horse-you-can-get-more-money-for-a-unicorn-even-though-or-especially-because-unicorns-dont-exist
  
• what-i-learned-from-teaching-online
  
• shreddergate-and-an-idea-for-a-museum-of-scholarly-misconduct
  
• statschat on asking-the-same-question
• Kaiser Fung on art-06-data, open-questions-of-the-pandemic-part-1

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on yield-curves-bridging-p-q-modeling, approximating-bayes-in-21st-century

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-final-installment-econ-books-in-2022
  
• the-deep-structure-of-the-knowledge-economy-or-25-years-of-weightlessness
  
• a-quarter-century-of-digital-thinking
  
• letting-the-red-wall-speak
  
• Unherd on ernst-junger-our-prophet-of-anarchy Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Susannah Patton on debating-alliance

Vox wonk

• rising-inflation-worrisome-not-reasons-you-think
  
• long-term-consequences-intra-household-endemic-respiratory-disease-spread
  
• comparing-online-person-meetings
  
• second-sanction-wave
  
• global-services-value-chains-new-path-development
  
• salary-history-and-employer-demand
  
• unemployment-risk-channel-business-cycle-fluctuations
  

Test Cricket

 Possibly the most enjoyable part of the pandemic is watching test cricket all over the world.

Here is my thinking.

India

Should be easily the most strongest team but is not. The major reason is that their much vaunted batting lineup is possibly over rated. Kohli for example has been poor for the last two years however they do have good young batsmen ready to take over from the veterans who appear to be past their best. Their bowling looks good more so if they discover a fast bowler. In the current series against South Africa they should be easily accounting for SA but are not.

New Zealand

They have a great team for home or England but lack bowlers when the pitch is flat. They in essence have no decent spinners. When their captain is injured they struggle. They just lost to Bangladesh which is a good thing for cricket but never should have occurred.

South Africa

They have a young side with a few experienced hands who are rarely consistent. Their fast medium bowlers are quite good and they have a potentially good allrounder. They do need a fast bowler and SA have never had a decent spinner in my lifetime.

West Indies

They are decimated by white cricket. All their talent goes in that direction and until someone can rectify this they will struggle in test cricket.

Pakistan

Pakistan always appears to have talented players but you always have the sneaking suspicion when they lose it is because they backed the other team. They do have one of the best batsman, some good fast bowlers and a good spinner and Wikkie. Perhaps the OZ tour to Pakistan will illuminate more on the team

Bangladesh

They recently best the Kiwis without their great allrounder. They certainly looked competent in all departments yet they lost easily to Pakistan at home. That is hard to reconcile

I might just add the commentary panels in SA are far superior to any other country

The fourth Test

 It appears only weather will save the poms!

Australia is highly over-rated. Starc cannot swing the ball and should not be a  problem for a test batsman. Lyon has been past his his best for a few seasons. ( I concur with the late Sid Barnes when he stated you could play an offspinner in Australia with a toothpick.) Richardson merely bowls fast medium outswingers and Boland simply bowls at military medium pace and does a bit with the ball. Only Cummins and Hazelwood are match winning bowlers yet we are up 3-0!

The poms techniques have been shown up. Stokes clearly needs match fitness. The bowlers have taken ages to bowl the right line and finally Root whilst a great batsman with the earth on his shoulders is a poor captain.

The poms should pick this team.

burns,

buttler,

Malan,

Root,

stokes ( c)

pope,

bairstow.

borthwick/livingstone My son says they are both in OZ at present

wood,

bess,

anderson,

do outlier polls tend to get it right

 A really interesting article entitled do-outlier-polls-tend-to-get-it-right written by someone  that Mark the Ballot has on his sidebar.

what subs to buy

 Hugh White writes a great article on comparing/contrasting nuke subs with conventional ones.

Linda Ronstadt

 The best version of her doing your no good with a great backing band.