I went home on Saturday morning quite pleased as Australia had convincingly defeated Palestine in the Asian Cup. I went to bed thinking that was that. I awoke at around 12.30 thinking I must be suffering from indigestion or heartburn. When Mylanta did not do a thing I knew something else was occurring so it was off to Ryde Hospital in thee wee hours of the morning.
Finally i was told I had not one but three gallstones that had to come out at some time.
So I am now trying to find a specialist who can do this.
The worst thing about getting old is going to hospital.
Monday, 14 January 2019
Sunday, 13 January 2019
Trump is doomed
One of the most easiest things to predict is the future of Donald Trump.
He essentially became President by a fluke.
He has not captured any of the independent vote at all.
He has no adults at all advising him either from cabinet or as advisors.
He clearly is not very intelligent at all.
Clearly he has something to hide on Russia. An innocent man would not care less about the Mueller investigation otherwise.
His other large problem is his tax cuts has massively increased the budget deficit without any commensurate increase in the GDP. This is not a bad thing as the Fed would have had to raise interest rates exponentially otherwise.
He also shows he possess little political nous whatsoever.
Thus it is quite easy to believe Trump is going to have one hell of a year with Democrats examining every nook and cranny of any conflict of interest
update
:
How could I forget this missive from Michael Fullilove on Trump
He essentially became President by a fluke.
He has not captured any of the independent vote at all.
He has no adults at all advising him either from cabinet or as advisors.
He clearly is not very intelligent at all.
Clearly he has something to hide on Russia. An innocent man would not care less about the Mueller investigation otherwise.
His other large problem is his tax cuts has massively increased the budget deficit without any commensurate increase in the GDP. This is not a bad thing as the Fed would have had to raise interest rates exponentially otherwise.
He also shows he possess little political nous whatsoever.
Thus it is quite easy to believe Trump is going to have one hell of a year with Democrats examining every nook and cranny of any conflict of interest
update
:
How could I forget this missive from Michael Fullilove on Trump
Thursday, 10 January 2019
Around the Traps 11/1/19
It is time for Around the Traps
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Kevin Bonham om 2018-ehrlich-awards-for-wrong-predictions
- Yee Fui-Ng on parliamentary-entitlements-whats-allowed-and-whats-not
- Bruce Mountain on new-regulations-expose-energy-price-gouging-through-free-comparison-sites
- The kouk on don-t-look-now-you-are-almost-certainly-poorer-than-a-year-ago
- Karl Braqganza on why-trump-will-likely-lose-the-government-shutdown
- Geoff Hammer on there-are-lessons-to-be-drawn-from-the-cracks-that-appeared-in-sydneys-opal-tower-but-they-extend-beyond-building-certification
- Breandan Coates on productivity-commission-finds-super-a-bad-deal-and-yes-it-comes-out-of-wages
- Richard Holden on vital-signs-so-far-its-more-of-a-house-price-blip-than-a-bust-in-the-making
- Christopher Mayes on cultivating-a-nation-why-the-mythos-of-the-australian-farmer-is-problematic
- the conversable economist on when-alan-greenspan-worried-about-overly-large-budget-surpluses, some-economics-of-gun-regulation
- Livio De Matteo on nafta-the-worst-trade-deal-ever
- Calculated Risk on question-1-for-2019-will-mr-trump-react-negatively-on-the-economy, key-measures-show-inflation-about-same-rise-in-december-as-in-november-YOY
- Larry Summers on be-prepared-a-recession-is-significantly-likely-in-the-next-two-years Thanks Mark
- Brad De Long on possible-causes-of-next-us-recession, supply-and-demand-shocks-and-seasonal-adjustment
- Kruggers on house-democrats-budget-deficit Thanks Mark
- Liberty Street on the-impact-of-import-tariffs-on-us-domestic-prices Thanks Mark
- James L Gelvin on no-trump-is-not-like-obama-on-middle-east-policy
- newdeal democrat on december-jobs-report-2018-goes-out-with-a-bang, good-news-from-the-employment-report-workers-are-finally-getting-raises
- Nathaniel Rakich on two-years-in-turnover-in-trumps-cabinet-is-still-historically-high
- John A Tures on why-trump-will-likely-lose-the-government-shutdown
- Aaron Ruper on trump-oval-office-speech-fact-check-failures
- David Frum on trump-speech
- Eliza Griswold on conservative-evangelicals-attempt-to-disentangle-their-faith-from-trumpism
- Eaun Graham on cracks-walls-trump-border-mexico
- Noah Smith on unions-did-great-things-for-the-american-working-class
- David Cho on the labour market effects of demand shocks Thanks Brad
- microeconomics insights on bias-in-cable-news Thanks Mark
- promarket on greatest-anticompetitive-threat-horizontal-shareholding Thanks Mark
- Michaeel Fulilove on ineffable-hulk-trump-always-one-temper-tantrum-disaster
- Mainly Macro on lexit-misdirection, the-2016-referendum-was-badly-designed
- Louise Thonpson on brexit-what-does-the-latest-parliamentary-upset-mean-for-theresa-may
- Frances Coppolla on the-real-victims-of-rape-of-national-insurance-fund
- Milton Osborne on rude-health-cambodia-s-hun-sen
- Hui Ying Lee on myanmar-country-reluctant-help-world-understand-itself
- Charlie Jones on taiwan-tsai-ing-wen-battle-discipline-dpp
- the conversable economist on indonesia-rising
- Fabrizzio Bozzato on religious-freedom-china-better
- Brad Setser on why-havent-us-exports-manufactures-kept-pace-chinas-growth Thanks Mark
- Diarmid Smyth on potential-output-and-output-gaps
- Robert Waldmann on romer-romer-on-taxes
- the regulatory review on -make-benefit-cost-analysis-meaningful Thanks Mark
- capital ebbs and flows on global-networks-and-financial-instability Thanks Mark
- promarket on crucial-break-up-facebook Thanks Mark
- Kenneth Rogoff on countercyclical-fiscal-policy-no-cure-in-next-recession Thanks Mark
- Menzie Chinn on a-third-of-a-century-of-currency-expectations-data-the-carry-trade-and-the-risk-premium
- the conversable econmist on daniel-kahneman-people-dont-want-to-be-happy
- Barkley Rosser on how-shocking-was-shock-therapy
- stumbling and mumbling on the-death-of-right-libertarianism
- Brad Setser on time-for-china-germany-netherlands-and-korea-to-step-up Thanks Mark
- Incidental economist on a-more-thorough-analysis-of-marijuana-use-and-homicide-in-colorado-and-washington Thanks Mark
- Nick Haslam on is-the-midlife-crisis-a-real-thing
- H Peter Soyer and Katie Lee on theres-no-such-thing-as-a-safe-tan-heres-whats-happening-underneath-your-summer-glow
- Alexandra Phelan on how-save-one-million-lives-and-then-millions-more
- David Appell on a-professional-scientist-actually-cited-this-graph
- Real Climate on noaa-thing-burger-officially-confirmed
- and Then Theres Physics on what-bothers-and-confuses-me-about-climate-change, fact-mongering
- Open Mind on heat-wave-2040, fooled-by-noise
- Harry Clarke on arguments-for-ecocentrism-deep-ecology
- science of doom on opinions-and-perspectives-6-climate-models-consensus-myths-and-fudge-factors
- scientific american on oceans-are-warming-faster-than-predicted Thanks Mark
- FRB Minneapolis on climate-change-uncertainty-no-excuse-for-inaction Thanks Mark
- dissolving-fermi-paradox
- did-she-really-live-122-years
- becker-bohm-important-role-stories-science
- Xian on severe-testing-beyond-statistics-wars
- statschat on induced-demand-meets-one-less-car
- bradley-efron-and-bootstrap
- No Hesitations on papers-of-moment
- Mark Bellemare on using the front door criterion to estimate causal effects in a regression Thanks Mark
- more-palaces-for-the-people-please
- Alastair Davies on book-review-grappling-legacy-barack-obama
- Frances Coppolla on the-miserables-of-21st-century
- Ross Gittins on in-pursuit-of-happiness-extroverts-get-a-head-start
- G John Ikenbury on book-review-protecting-international-order-trump-trauma
- joining-group-makes-us-nastier-outsiders
- repayment-flexibility-and-risk-taking
- leverage-over-lifecycle-firm-growth-and-shock-responsiveness
- assortative-matching-cities
- return-information-technology
- short-run-effects-gdpr-technology-venture-investment
- role-high-deductibles-healthcare-spending-growth
- powers-and-pitfalls-quantitative-easing
- economics-cryptocurrency-pump-and-dump-schemes
- leverage-over-lifecycle-firm-growth-and-shock-responsiveness
- retail-investors-are-not-noise-traders
- inequality-joint-distribution-consumption-and-time-use
- banking-integration-emu-let-s-get-real
- effect-machine-learning-credit-markets
- populism-and-civil-society
- breaking-brexit-impasse
- public-cost-excess-private-debt
- political-donations-and-public-procurement
Wednesday, 9 January 2019
some heroic forecasts
Okay it is the New year and perhaps it is time for some heroic forecasts or guesses.
Politics
I see a minority Liberal/National government in NSW. Back down Berejiklian has gained a reputation and some infrastructures problems will outweigh the any successful solutions they have produced. More so when they are big.
Unless the voting public are complete hypocrites the ALP should romp home federally. As the saying goes disunity is death and the Libs and Nats have it in spades
Economy
I am going for a softer economy so GDP It won't go over 3%/ Reasons? housing will be a negative, savings have been depleted so consumption should slow. Maybe China slows so commodity prides soften. I can't see wages rising much so inflation won't either
US
Trump will get worse. I am in complete agreement with Calculated Risk. Trump is a thin skinned narcissistic ignoramus. With no adults to assist him the chickens will come to roost. The US economy will slow over the best two years and a trade war will erupt. The Mueller report and its repercussions will merely exacerbate this. I don't see an impeachment as Democrats want Trump to contest the 2020 Presidential election.
UK
Therese May survives in Parliament and is vindicated when the no-deal Brexit provides all the problems people said it would
China
The economy slows as trade tensions with the US erupt.
Ashes
We easily lose the Ashes series and Smith scores the only Aussie ton. Jimmy anderson takes over 30 wickets on bowler friendly wickets
Politics
I see a minority Liberal/National government in NSW. Back down Berejiklian has gained a reputation and some infrastructures problems will outweigh the any successful solutions they have produced. More so when they are big.
Unless the voting public are complete hypocrites the ALP should romp home federally. As the saying goes disunity is death and the Libs and Nats have it in spades
Economy
I am going for a softer economy so GDP It won't go over 3%/ Reasons? housing will be a negative, savings have been depleted so consumption should slow. Maybe China slows so commodity prides soften. I can't see wages rising much so inflation won't either
US
Trump will get worse. I am in complete agreement with Calculated Risk. Trump is a thin skinned narcissistic ignoramus. With no adults to assist him the chickens will come to roost. The US economy will slow over the best two years and a trade war will erupt. The Mueller report and its repercussions will merely exacerbate this. I don't see an impeachment as Democrats want Trump to contest the 2020 Presidential election.
UK
Therese May survives in Parliament and is vindicated when the no-deal Brexit provides all the problems people said it would
China
The economy slows as trade tensions with the US erupt.
Ashes
We easily lose the Ashes series and Smith scores the only Aussie ton. Jimmy anderson takes over 30 wickets on bowler friendly wickets
Tuesday, 8 January 2019
Some reflections on the Test Series
Well the test series is over and the Indians thoroughly deserved their first success on Aussie shores.
So let us examine the series.
I said before the series started that the series would be won by either the Aussie batting or the Indian bowling rising to the fore.
I did assume the Australian batsmen should bat better on home soil than in the UAE. I also thought the Indian bowlers would revert to type and bowl far too short.
Both assumptions proved to be unsound.
The pitches bar Perth were an absolute disgrace. We do not want roads here. We want fast bouncy wickets where the ball is on top of the bat. Thus a century is well earned. Tell Sydney and Melbourne they do not have tests next year. As Brisbane and Hobart are clearly the best pitches they should always have tests until the other cities catch up. Perth is nearly there.
The Selectors were either incompetent or out and out liars. They said they would go on form. Huh?
The top four batsmen in averages did not get a look in. Finch did a valiant job in the UAE where the ball rarely swings. However in Australia there must be a good reason why Victoria never picks him to open. We saw this in the first two tests. Despite this he was still told to open in Melbourne. Why?
Despite this he still managed to score more runs in his first four tests than either Warner or Harris.
Why the Marsh's were selected is a complete mystery. Elder Marsh is 35. He aint going to improve if anything he will do the opposite. Mitchell Marsh is the only 'allrounder I know of whose bowling average should be his batting average and vica versa.
Let us go to the bowling.
Mitchel Starc is dynamite with the new ball when he is swinging it. Yet he only bowled two decent balls that swung in the whole 4 tests. Both got wickets. The reason (not the only one but the most recognisable one) was his right foot should have been pointing to first slip ( if bowling to a right hander) yet far too many times his right foot was pointing to the wicket keeper.
Hazelwood under pressure does the same thing. It was very easy to spot in Sydanee.
Some people argued the new ball should have gone to Cummins but he does very little with the ball in the air.
Unfortunately the selectors have backed themselves into a corner. They must be hoping Warner and smith will make a huge difference in England.
Enough of Australia what of India?
It took them two tests to find new openers but that was the change they needed. If the new teenage sensation is only moderate they have solved their opening woes. Pujara was simply sensational. He was the bulwark behind their batting. Kholi never had to concentrate all that much so we only got 1 tom and 1 50! They can choose between Vihari or batting Sharma for no 6.
Pant reminds me of Iron gloves Marsh from 1970-71. Neither were/are competent keepers but were/are selected on the hope their keeping will improve. It did with Marsh and I think it will with Pant.
Only bowling Sharma is likely to retire soon ( how come he bowled faster this tour than in previous tours.) They have replacements who can swing the ball and bat competently.
Ashwin only played one test but he too bowled much better this time than last tour. As we found out they have strong spinning stocks.
I suspect Kholi will go to South Africa and then to England and win there. They were dead unlucky against both last year.
I should add one last thing about India. Kholi is a fitness fanatic and this has obviously had an effect on the Indian players. They mostly all looked like good fieldsmen who would throw themselves around the field. They also ran much better between wickets.
We have troubles and the Indians have the opposite!
Update:
I forgot the ludicrous suspensions made to the three in sandpapergate. at max Warner and smith ,given he was the captain should have gotten 2-3 test matches as a suspension. Because the totally discredited CA overreacted and gave them suspensions which were well over what the punishment fitting the crime Australian cricket suffered. Good riddance!
So let us examine the series.
I said before the series started that the series would be won by either the Aussie batting or the Indian bowling rising to the fore.
I did assume the Australian batsmen should bat better on home soil than in the UAE. I also thought the Indian bowlers would revert to type and bowl far too short.
Both assumptions proved to be unsound.
The pitches bar Perth were an absolute disgrace. We do not want roads here. We want fast bouncy wickets where the ball is on top of the bat. Thus a century is well earned. Tell Sydney and Melbourne they do not have tests next year. As Brisbane and Hobart are clearly the best pitches they should always have tests until the other cities catch up. Perth is nearly there.
The Selectors were either incompetent or out and out liars. They said they would go on form. Huh?
The top four batsmen in averages did not get a look in. Finch did a valiant job in the UAE where the ball rarely swings. However in Australia there must be a good reason why Victoria never picks him to open. We saw this in the first two tests. Despite this he was still told to open in Melbourne. Why?
Despite this he still managed to score more runs in his first four tests than either Warner or Harris.
Why the Marsh's were selected is a complete mystery. Elder Marsh is 35. He aint going to improve if anything he will do the opposite. Mitchell Marsh is the only 'allrounder I know of whose bowling average should be his batting average and vica versa.
Let us go to the bowling.
Mitchel Starc is dynamite with the new ball when he is swinging it. Yet he only bowled two decent balls that swung in the whole 4 tests. Both got wickets. The reason (not the only one but the most recognisable one) was his right foot should have been pointing to first slip ( if bowling to a right hander) yet far too many times his right foot was pointing to the wicket keeper.
Hazelwood under pressure does the same thing. It was very easy to spot in Sydanee.
Some people argued the new ball should have gone to Cummins but he does very little with the ball in the air.
Unfortunately the selectors have backed themselves into a corner. They must be hoping Warner and smith will make a huge difference in England.
Enough of Australia what of India?
It took them two tests to find new openers but that was the change they needed. If the new teenage sensation is only moderate they have solved their opening woes. Pujara was simply sensational. He was the bulwark behind their batting. Kholi never had to concentrate all that much so we only got 1 tom and 1 50! They can choose between Vihari or batting Sharma for no 6.
Pant reminds me of Iron gloves Marsh from 1970-71. Neither were/are competent keepers but were/are selected on the hope their keeping will improve. It did with Marsh and I think it will with Pant.
Only bowling Sharma is likely to retire soon ( how come he bowled faster this tour than in previous tours.) They have replacements who can swing the ball and bat competently.
Ashwin only played one test but he too bowled much better this time than last tour. As we found out they have strong spinning stocks.
I suspect Kholi will go to South Africa and then to England and win there. They were dead unlucky against both last year.
I should add one last thing about India. Kholi is a fitness fanatic and this has obviously had an effect on the Indian players. They mostly all looked like good fieldsmen who would throw themselves around the field. They also ran much better between wickets.
We have troubles and the Indians have the opposite!
Update:
I forgot the ludicrous suspensions made to the three in sandpapergate. at max Warner and smith ,given he was the captain should have gotten 2-3 test matches as a suspension. Because the totally discredited CA overreacted and gave them suspensions which were well over what the punishment fitting the crime Australian cricket suffered. Good riddance!
Monday, 7 January 2019
Opal tower will have future implications
The massive problems of Opal Tower at Homebush will have negative implications for housing this year.
We simply do not know how large they will be.
However now investors, speculators, home owners and developers all know now what can occur in building apartments.
This will exacerbate the current decline in housing.
not happy Jan
We simply do not know how large they will be.
However now investors, speculators, home owners and developers all know now what can occur in building apartments.
This will exacerbate the current decline in housing.
not happy Jan
Thursday, 3 January 2019
Around the Traps 4/1/19 New Years Edition
It is time yet again for Around the Traps.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- The Kouk on 2019-my-forecasts-guesses-and-hunches-for-the-new-year, 2018-one-of-my-best-years-for-forecasting. falling-dollar-reflects-global-concern-all-is-not-well-in-the-australian-economy
- Frank Bongornio on 1996-1997-cabinet-papers-show-how-howard-and-costello-faced-a-budget-black-hole
- Ross Gittins on what-economy-really-needs-more-of-trees
- Andrew Elder on trust-in-god-and-man
- Croaking Cassandra on cowering
- Susan Harris Rimmer on australia-should-brace-for-a-volatile-year-in-foreign-policy-in-2019
- Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-six-right-predictions-in-2018, treasury-spreads-and-measured-economic-policy-uncertainty-for-2018, guest-contribution-new-year-questions-about-the-economic-outlook
- Barry Ritholz on what-minimum-wage-foes-got-wrong-about-seattle Thanks Brad
- Macromania on racial-diversity-in-supply-of-us-econ-PhDs
- Brad De Long on not-only-no-wage-but-minimal-investment-boosts-from-trump-mcconnell-ryan, would-small-minimum-wage-increases-raise-or-have-no-effect-on-employment
- Nouriel Roubini on trump-behavior-causes-stock-market-drop Thanks Mark
- Kruggers on republican-economists-bad-faith Thanks Mark
- the conversable economist on can-earned-income-tax-credit-mostly-pay-for-itself, steel-tariffs-an-utterly-unsurprising-cast/benefit-calculation
- Barkley Rosser on on-some-predictions
- The Grumpy Economist on volatility
- Amanda Sakuma on john-kelly-exit-interview-chaos-trumps-white-house
- Perry Bacon on sure-pelosi-is-unpopular-but-another-democratic-speaker-likely-would-be-too
- Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms
- Nathanial Rakich on the-public-blamed-trump-for-the-shutdown-but-that-may-be-changing
- Mainly Macro on what-will-happen-if-labour-enable-brexit, what-does-the-stupid-woman-saga-tell-us-about-the-media
- Chris Bertram on if-brexit-goes-ahead-say-goodbye-to-radical-redistribution
- stumbling and mumbling on brexit-in-defence-of-corbyn
- Maxim Edwards on serb-president-dodik-bosnia
- Barry Eichengreen on the-euro-at-20-an-enduring-success-but-a-fundamental-failure Thanks Brad
- Dewsmog on china-climate-progress-faltered-2018-seems-right-path
- Dani Rodrik on china-experiment-high-growth-renewed-repression Thanks Brad
- Noah Smith on china-s-economic-growth-at-risk-from-reversing-reforms
- Roger Farmer on dont-trust-the-markets
- the conversable economist on joan-robinson-on-poets-mathematicians-economists-adam smith, you-cannot-convict-your-opponent-of-error-you-can-only-convince-him-of-it ,macaulay-on-economic-progress-100-years-before-Keynes
- Economic Prinicipals on why we have newspapers et al Thanks Mark
- Branko Milanovic on marx-for-me-and-hopefully-for-others-too Thanks Mark
- Michael Spence on inequality-weakens-economic-performance Thanks Mark
- Quantitative Ease on central-banking-stories-to-watch-in-2019
- Barkley Rosser on on-some-predictions
- Nick Rowe on are-open-market-operations-wrong-signed-when-nominal-rates-are-negative, are-we-at-full-employment-yet
- Patrice Rey on curious-kids-how-do-mountains-form
- Julia Kindt on curious-kids-who-were-the-spartans
- David Cowan on message-sent-received-but-no-instant-reply-how-does-that-make-you-feel
- Ross Gittins on compared-to-you-and-me-feudal-serfs-had-it-easy
- Peter Dorman on economic-growth-and-climate-change
- Open mind on what-is-climate-really,sea-level-rise-u-s-east-coast-iv
- AGW Oberver on list-of-papers-on-global-warming-hiatus-v2-0-308-papers
- Real Climate on lets-check-your-temperature
- Skeptical Science on new_research
- Rabett run on eli-explains-it-all
- Simon Holmes A_Court on australian-government-energy-more-hopeful-story
- David Appell on where-has-all-carbon-gone
- Rabett run on eli-explains-it-all
- John Quiggin on energy-in-2019-dead-horse-roundup
- using-multilevel-modeling-improve-analysis-multiple-comparisons
- check-wreck-assessing-discrete-choice-models-predictive-simulations
- combining-apparently-contradictory-evidence
- authority-figures-in-psychology-spread-more-happy-talk-still-dont-get-the-point-that-much-of-the-published-celebrated-and-publicized-work-in-their-field-is-no-good-part-2
- principles-posterior-visualization
- read-paper-full-errors-author-wont-share-data-open-analysis
- published-in-2018
- robin-pemantles-updated-bag-of-tricks-for-math-teaching
- statschat on briefly
- Kaiser Fung on grad-school-admissions-small-data-grade-inflation-and-when-metrics-become-anti-informative
- Xian on monte-carlo-fusion
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
- most-popular-posts-of-2018
- look-ahead-to-books-out-in-2019
- Project Syndicate on ps-commentators-best-reads-in-2018-by-ps-editors-2018 Thanks Brad
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