John Hawkins says Farrer could tell us where australian politics is heading in the near future.
Antony Green tells us all about the lecorate HERE and HERE.
We shall get a four way fight. The Liberals who currently hold it after they won it when Tim fischer retired. The Nationals who want it back although it was a Liberal seat before that.. One Nation who believe they are on a roll and an Independent ( no I do not believe two independents).
Okay let us make a guess. Green preferences will go mostly to the ALP unless they think they can crown the Independent. One Nation will gain at the expense of both the Liberals and also the National party but mainly the latter.
ALP preferences will go to the independent. This will put her into second place. The National preferences wil ggo mainly to One nation.
The Liberal vote will be down because of the Liberals knifing Ley and antipathy towards Taylor. some votes will go to one nation but also towards the independent.
Thus the contest on final preferences will again be between the Liberal candidate and the Independent. Thus I would not be surprised if the Independent wins however I say that with no confidence.
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