How many times have you heard about the national plan? Do you understand the assumptions behind it?
I am here to help.
The Doherty report assumes vaccinations and test trace isolate and quarantine play an equal role in ' living with the virus.' However the TTIQ takes no account of the new delta variant. Quite clearly Delta moves so fast TTIQ is very problematic. Just look at NSW in a lockdown Moreover there will be a lot of pressure on hospitals as we also know in NSW ( in a lockdown).. It is easy to convert wards into ICU wards BUT ICU wards need one nurse per patient and the nurses are highly trained and this takes a lot of time to take effect.
I am unsure some politicians have actually read through the 'national plan'. This is not a criticism of the model because all models are hostage to the assumptions made
Related to this is Andrew Gelman on there-are-no-equal-opportunity-infectors-epidemiological-modelers-must-rethink-our-approach-to-inequality-in-infection-risk
Also related is this on Vox wonk mask-mandates-save-lives
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