Thursday 28 April 2016

Around the Traps 29/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk





Wednesday 27 April 2016

What does the CPI tells us?

The March CPI was released yesterday.It fell which is very unusual. We had deflation not inflation.
Deflation is usually occurs for one of two reasons.
1) Innovation makes lots of goods and services cheaper and you have strong economic growth.
2) The economy is weak and so is demand for goods and services.

most people would think 2) is more appropriate now than 1). however it would be at odds with the labour market for example. Thus policy makers are in a dilemma.
Some indicators show the economy needs to be jump started whilst others show the opposite. The RBA will be in a quandary next Tuesday.

Steve from Brisbane again remembers Sinclair Davidson infamous prediction of stagflation occurring in Australia..

I would make two observations on this. Davidson's informal model   when making this prediction was hopeless even allowing for the fact most people have stagflation being inflation and unemployment being if not then very close to double digits. We were not within cooee of that.

Davidson had no idea of how stagflation occurred in the 1970s. At that time we had a large supply side shock ( very high oil prices) and a highly regulated labour market. Neither of those two circumstances were in evidence when Davidson made his ludicrous prediction.
If only he was a economist!



Monday 25 April 2016

The US election and the Fed.


Carola Binder has a typically very good article on the Presidential candidates and Fed accountability.

It is well worth a read!

Sunday 24 April 2016

The Mighty Mighty Wanderers

In the midst of the best ever A league season we had tow mighty semi-finals. Adelaide were superb in their demolition of Melbourne city.

HOWEVER the Wanderers were sublime in the 5-4 defeat of the roar.

What a game. What an atmosphere.The RBB were simply the best.
I did not want to leave.

Indeed the RBB are world class at installing the best atmosphere at football games.

now for the final in Adelaide.

Thursday 21 April 2016

Around the Traps 22/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk



Wednesday 20 April 2016

poll update

First of all I have been quite busy of late so limited writings.More of that later perhaps

However this must be talked about. Naturally Kevin Bonham is a must read.As is Mark the Ballot

The libs would still win but there would be no joint sitting!!

A few points on the polls.


  • People like Malcolm when he was above the fray both as Opposition leader and now as PM. They decidedly get less impressed when he gets down and dirty into politics. They do not like Abbott impersonations!  This is not the biggest thing in his slide but it is relevant.
  • I see Essential have Chris Bowen beating Scott Morrison as who the public would like as Treasurer. He does not appear to be on top of his portfolio nor does he appear different to when he fronted up as Immigration minister.Bluster does not get you far as a Treasurer. No more thoughts od Scott as a potential leader now.
  • Those on the 'right' do not like Turnbull at all and treat him almost as the Leader of the ALP. Whether it be Andrew Bolt , Alan Jones et al. A Liberal loss would boost their 'significance'!
I should have added three more things
  1.  These polls have been conducted when people know there will be a July 2 election
  2.  Political strategists hate winter polls. If the day is cold and even rainy they think it exacerbates swings against the government Ye they are superstitious!
  3. A long campaign is not good for governments. Think Bob Hawke and 1984. Can Turnbull do better than Hawke and can his team learn from it?



Thursday 14 April 2016

Around the Traps 15/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Monday 11 April 2016

A Royal Commission into the Banks

A Royal Commission into the banks is great politics.

Everyone has a tale about the bastardtry of the banks with regard to deposits. loans, insurance or financial advice.
A Royal Commission would show all and sundry how tardy the Banks have been with regard to their services and how over-paid their executives have been as well. It would also show how poor they have been at their jobs!
Moreover it is apolitical. It is not a witch hunt to get at one side of politics as Tony Abbott did on not one but two occasions.

Bill Shorten has handled this superbly. His confidence is definitely on the rise. Turnbull on the other hand is made to look an apologist for the banks showing yet again his political judgement is questionable. His only positive is at this stage his judgement is nowhere near as bad as Abbott's was.

Thursday 7 April 2016

Around the Traps 8/1/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia


Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday 6 April 2016

Turnbull and Newspoll

Well the collective 'conservative' hounds have been barking loudly since the Newspoll came out.

Here is Antony Green helpfully to assist us understand it.

Note this please " This is the Coalition's worst Newspoll result since Malcolm Turnbull became leader. Alternatively, it is a better result for the Coalition than achieved through almost eighteen months of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister."

Well I didn't read that anywhere else. Probably because people such as Steve Kates, Andrew Bolt , Alan Jones are innumerate.
the Liberals were gone to gowings with Abbott. They have an actual chance with turnbull.

Here is Antony on the possible implications of a double dissolution.

On a related issue Michaelia Cash  dresses like she is from Vaucluse and talks like she comes from Mt Druiitt!!!!

Tuesday 5 April 2016

things from attempting to be on Jury Duty

Parramatta court is way different to downing street.
Whereas I was simply part of the large anglo saxon brew there I stood out like the proverbial shag on a rock at Parramatta where most appeared to come from the western suburbs.

first case was where an African immigrant was accused of dealing drugs.

I was one of three that were challenged by the defence.  All three were understandable. One was a young lady who had tied to get excused because her boss would want her to work after this case.
another was a patently middle class middle manager who has been to University and who probably had kids. As I said I was an ageing middle class white Anglo Saxon male.

I was the last called and I told the man next to me who would be challenged. After we went back to the big room and I told him my reasons he though it was so easy he wondered why he hadn't thought of it.

The second trial was dreadful. A man accused of terrible things with his own kids less than ten. About 15 people was allowed by the judge to be excused from the case. I was called again . This time the crown challenged two people as did the defence. I had great relief when the Defence counsel challenged me as I anticipated.  I did not understand the challenges to the other three.

The odd bit from the day was I wanted Channel 9 taken off the screens from the ;large room all potential jurors were on. Ellen was on and Simply said it was TV for morons.
They said they could not do that. I then proposed they turn off two screens in the corner so people could have some silence whilst they read or do work on their laptops etc.
They said they could not do that either.

Postscript:

I should have said but didn't I doubt very much whether I will ever serve on a jury in Parramatta court. I will if in downing Street.

Monday 4 April 2016

Jury Duty

I am on Jury duty today.

If my number comes up I am told the case could go for 4 weeks so it maybe limited blogging for a while although my number may not come up.
I will still do Around the Traps no matter what. It just means I will get to bed late each night if my number does come up.

Just for people who have not served before you get a notice telling you you are to go to a certain court to serve on a jury.

When you get there you are given a number. If your number comes up and there are no objections you serve on the jury. I have done this once before.I do remember as I was umpiring at the time at Epping oval and another juror lived at North Epping and saw me!

Sunday 3 April 2016

Women in sport

I see where some of the women in the Female US football team are suing for 'equal pay'. This follows on female tennis players getting more money and the Matildas wanting equal money with the Socceroos.

Let us hang on a minute. Equal pay is for equal work. A female gets the same pay as me for doing the same job.
Female tennis players do not do the same job. In fact NO female sportswomen does equal pay for the same job as they only play against women. They never play against men or even play in the same team as men.

I remember working with as person win the financial markets who played tennis once. He got through several rounds of the Australian open.He told me that Martina Navratilova regularly gotten beaten in practice by unknown males in her heyday way down in Texas

The greatest female squash player of all time regularly got beaten in the MALE competition in Sydney.  How many games do you think Serena Williams would win if all tennis competitions were open to ALL comers??

It is politically incorrect to say so but female sport mostly is inferior to male sport.It is patently false to equate different pay for female sportswomen to equal pay for equal work!