Monday, 26 June 2017

Why you should never use the Hodrick Prescott filter

That is the title of a very good paper written by the esteemed James Hamilton.

Yes I know both Mark Thoma and Brad De Long have previously highlighted this paper but that was when it was only available via the NBER avenue and that is not available to all.

There are TWO choices

The expurgated version was in Friday's Around the Traps in the Vox wonk section.
It is HERE.
James has also made his total article available via his wonderful ECONBROWSER blog.
It is HERE. ( You have to use his link to view it.)

Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say


Sunday, 25 June 2017

The Socceroos were great

It has taken some time but the Socceroos finally put it all together. For some time they have been dull and listless but today they were energetic, full of vitality and industrious.

WE played a second string Germany and lost 3-2 and  it should have been 6-2. We drew 1-1 with Cameroon and should have lost 3-1 however today we should have won perhaps 4-2 against the best team in the tournament.
Quite easily the best three players were Sainsbury who was a tower in defence, Milligan who except for one moment completely shut out Sanchez out of the game and Irvine who provided the get and go needed in the midfield. Having a back three finally worked hallelujah.

I do have to say certain players lack of class was shown. This is why we did not score the goals we should have. to create so many goal opportunities against the 4th rated  side in the world was a sensational task. Pressure at the highest level meant we just could not convert those opportunities into goals.
It may come in the future. We shall soon learn if Ange is a great coach or a stubborn one. If he is great we shall easily make it to the World cup and certainly get into the final 16. If he is stubborn and simply had some good luck we will struggle to make the world cup and won't win a game.

I think the former is correct and thus am lacking forward to the World Cup.

Thursday, 22 June 2017

Around the Traps 23/6/17

It is time for Around the Traps yet again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Polling update

The inimitable Kevin Bonham has his usual excellent analysis of the latest polls for the Federal parties.
It seems to me voters have made up their mind. I tend to agree with Kevin that this Government certainly has the smell of the ALP Government going into the 1996 election. no matter what it tries nothing seems to increase its vote. We have to remember that the Government in essence has always been behind in the polls since the last election.This is  unheard of.

Me thinks plenty of leadership speculation to come and of course with Tony Abbott making comments which the press play up then the disunity tag is easily applied to the Liberals.

I really do not think even the Liberals are so stupid as to make Abbott leader again. Unlike Rudd he has never been liked the the electorate and to be blunt he is still an embarrassment and a bore when he is interviewed ( 2GB in Sydanee do it twice a week).

I am hoping they make Peter Dutton leader and he thus loses his seat at the next election when he is shown completely out of his depth. Andrew Elder will be go apoplectic

Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Disaster economics

Following on from Yesterdays article by Simon Wren-Lewis.

Today I have another highly interesting article by a clever pom namely Tony Yates  of  Long and Variable fame.
It is all about Disaster economics.

Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say.

Monday, 19 June 2017

Central Banks should increase their inflation targets

Simon Wren-Lewis has a very good article essentially on this area.He makes a lot of very good points

Enjoy.

Sunday, 18 June 2017

The Manus settlement

The Government;s noses have been getting longer and longer on this.
See:

Isn't funny how the settlement means we do NOT get to hear about what occurred at Manus. It isn't the first time This has occurred!

Thursday, 15 June 2017

Around the Traps 16/6/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General


Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin
Dianne Coyle (quirky +book reviews)
Vox wonk

The hidden cost of Privatisation

That is the title of a very interesting paper by Nina Shapiro.  ( Thanks Brad De Long)
In Australia we have found out to our great cost the electricity market simply does not work and indeed should have never been privatised. I admit to having supported the privatisation in the first place. I was wrong!

Wednesday, 14 June 2017

Trump aint going to change

It is chaos in the White house and this will not change.
Let mew take two articles from Friday's Around the Traps. Sorry Bruce's is from last weeks.
Bruce Bartlett  enlarges on what goes on. It reinforces what I have read from various peple on what goes on both from 'left ' and 'right'.

Ezra Klein also write on Trump and his interaction with staff.  Also read another article of his where he supports Mathews Yglesias's assertion that Trump is a bullsh-tter not a liar. ( You really need to read it. also remember Trump is a real estate developer.
Trump is an old man. He won't change. He is too steeped in his ways. No-one  but no-one is going to tell him of his many limitations.

The complete lack of self awareness leads him to making numerous embarrassing statements and really stupid tweets when he should be asleep! Only sleeping fours must be having an effect as well.

All in all Trump is not going to change. I have said previously I do not believe Trump ever expected to win the Presidency. We can see that now. He has made no effort to inquire about how Government works. He still has little idea of how important people are in the middle areas of government.

When he talks about legislation he is always wrong about it. Whether this comes back to bite him as those who supported realise they have been dudded we shall see.

However what we shall see is a Chaoshouse in total confusion where staff leak policies because their President  doesn't understand the implications.

Comedians are in heaven.

Monday, 12 June 2017

The Finkel Report

The Finkel Report was released on Friday.

Given it does NOT recommend a price on carbon which therefore means those things  boosting emissions are guilty of externalities which can be only recovered by such a price I was disappointed.
However it could well be the only way forward so in that way I support it.
One problem is that we would still be short of out Paris obligations however the report's recommendations  can be easily accommodated to have an emissions intensity scheme, emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax being part of it.

If the Liberals cannot implement this then they no longer should be in Government!


Update:

It is clear there are some Government MPS who clearly do not believe in climate change and therefore do not care how much emissions electricity powered by coal spews out. No-one is saying coal will be immediately curtailed certainly not Finkel. This straw man argument is made for political purposes. None of the MPs seem to understand NEW coal powered electricity plants will be as expensive if not more expensive than other forms of generation!


Here is John Quiggin

The UK Election Result

It seems to me most people have missed the obvious explanation for the result.
Most poms thought May's reason for going so early was very specious. They wanted to give her a black eye if not get rid of her.
They knew voting for the Labor party would do that but that the Labor party had no chance of winning so Corbyn could never ever be PM.

What they will get is at some stage a new PM and when the next election comes around a swing against the Labor party as it is now to close in votes to be a protest vote.

Poms are not as stupid as Yanks. Corbyn in his own way is as unfit for office as Trump is. Well yes he is more honest but anyone is. His policies are just as poor.

The sooner the British Labor party realise they did not get close to winning the election and they never will with Corbyn as Leader the better.

Thursday, 8 June 2017

Around the Traps 9/6/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 7 June 2017

Is the Washington Consensus dead?

Stephen Grenville formerly Deputy governor of the RBA and now a regular contributor to The Lowy Institute writes on this very topic.

Being a fan of both the Washington Consensus and neo-liberal economic policies I found Stephen's article compelling. I think the first thing to do is to define what the terms do. I am glad Stephen and I are in agreement.

Tuesday, 6 June 2017

Ricardo Ambivalence is Baaaaack!

Ricardo Ambivalence and no.1 John Cochrane fan is back after a very long absence.

The absence has been far too long and what a pleasure it is to read him!

Update:
RA promises to be more frequent in writing. Bewdy Nek!

Monday, 5 June 2017

Islamic Terrorism

wow,

There has been a lot of rubbish sprouted about terrorism and Islam in recent days.
First a somewhat dated article by Gary LaFree on terrorism.
A terrorist has an agenda. An Islamic terrorist has an agenda to do with  as Duncan Sinclair told us this week. It has all to do with an extremist interpretation of Sunni Islam alah Wahhabism.

Firstly we should be wary of hasty judgments, Let us take Monis from the Lindt siege,. He came here as  a very liberal shia  cleric. Yet he converted to a Sunni fundamentalist without any insight from the security or intelligence agencies. Moreover he was on trial for sexual  assault which is an affront to sunni fundamentalism. Yes they are allowed even encouraged to rape females in a war as Nabeel Quesrhi found out to his horror. But it is not allowed in peace time.
So if one asserts Monis was a terrorist then you have to provide evidence on when this occurred which no-one has yet to do not even the Coroner!
Let us now take a recent incident in Melbourne. The man did two things.
He asked for an 'escort' Compatible with Wahhibist religion. No.
He said he was for both ISIS and Al Qaeda. Hmm. That is like saying you support both Manchester United and City!!He was also a drug addict!

Me thinks people say people are terrorists merely because people say they are.

A lot of brain dead people are saying stop any Islamic people from coming to Australia if they are immigrating here.
What would this do?

It woulds immediately create a us and them society. ASIO would no longer be able to gain any intelligence from the Islamic community.
The reason why the Security agencies have been able to curtail any terrorist incidents in Australia is because of intelligence from the Islamic communities.
Curtailing Immigration from Muslims would certainly eliminate this and heavily restrict any intelligence from the Islamic community.

Could the 'right wing ' in Australia just once think before they speak please!

Could Austerity's impact be persistent?

That is the title of Simon Wren-Lewis latest article.

In particular he draws on Gustav Horn and others at the IMK Institute. They in turn use the work of both Blanchard and Leigh and Fatas and Summers. ( Simon handily links them all.)

In essence it means if you adopt austerity policies at the wrong time then it has very harsh effects on the economy.

I might end that a lot of the problem is understanding basic fiscal policy. Let us takes our mate Katesy and the others at Catallaxy. They all think if there is a deficit then the Government is trying to pump prime the economy. This is what they see as the problem in Europe when it has been the complete opposite. This is why for example Sinclair Davidson can criticise Swan's last budget he had responsibility for as expansionary when it in fact detracted 0.7 percentage points from GDP. This was the tightest budget in budget history !!

Sunday, 4 June 2017

Peter Goss excoriates the ALP on Education and gonski

Peter Goss from the Grattan Institute ,quite easily the best think thank in the country, has written about the ALP's reaction the the government's policy on Education re Gonksi.

He finds they ,in my words, either do not understand what Gonksi proposed or are blatantly lying.

IMHO the ALP  and Bill Shorten in particular, are adopting Tony Abbott's tactics. They are opposing for opposing sake with the faint hope the government might collapse.

What he has yet to realise is that what was great for Abbott in Opposition was quite bad for him in government. It will be the same for him. Shorten will not have a majority in the Senate and will need to negotiate. Hard decisions will have to be made and he has no public good will to call on just as Abbott did not.

It is ominous for Australia that this is still occurring. The Political class is still letting us down in Australia

Thursday, 1 June 2017

Around the Traps 2/6/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia

Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk