Sunday, 17 December 2017

The Royal Commission gets it wrong

The Royal Commission into Child Abuse has said there should be changes to the Catholics confession and that catholic priests should no longer be celibate.

This is badly wrong

First confession. does anyone out there imagine a paedophile will confess their sin in a confession to a priest? The RC had no evidence of this at all merely an academic question. It is absurd. Paedophiles see nothing wrong with their actions

We should note the Roman Catholic denomination response has been as silly. If a person confesses then they will take responsibility for their actions. A persons who confessed such a crime but would not go to the police has not confessed at all

Secondly getting rid of celibate priests would not make one iota of difference to paedophiles. They want sex with children. Being ',married! would make no difference at all.  I call this Soony's folly.
Getting rid of celibacy would reduce fornication and adultery but not paedophilia.

We should also note that the Pastoral epistles has a minster MUST have a reverent wife and obedient children. I do not think any denomination obeys that all  and of course celibacy is a compete contraction to this.

The Bennelong Result

There has been a lot of hooey being made of the Bennelong result.

It was a most unusual by-election. ( If the Court of Disputed returns had ordered it like in New England it would have been a re-election.

It was the first time that the member had re-nominated for the electorate. Usually people resign, retire or die. Also important was people knew that a change in voting would mean a change in numbers in parliament that could well mean something.

In other words comparing this result to previous by-elections is completely worthless.

Could I also in Andrew Elder fashion try to get Journalists not to write about 'internal party polls' unless they can see all the results of said poll. Parties very rarely poll one marginal seat. it costs far too much for a start and as we saw form the two poling companies that tried to survey Bennelong it is very problematic. Getting the basics right is very hard. It proved almost impossible in Bennolong where a significant proportion had poor english speaking skills for example!!

What parties usually do is poll maybe 4 marginal seats and go from there.

Clearly most voters did not care how lackadaisical Alexander was with regard to his father's birth. The same could be said for Barnaby Joyce.

I thought the two candidates were poor. Alexander look old, tired and bored. Kenneally although having plenty of energy made a number of gaffes. I hope she does not go to the Senate.

As if to show us the result was highly problematic Newspol on the same weekend shows us the Government is still losing and losing badly.

We do not know if voting intentions changed over time in Bennelong and if so why.

It still is the case that the government is highly likely to lose the next election

Thursday, 14 December 2017

Around the Traps 15/12/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 13 December 2017


The Bennelong re-election appears to be going to the wire. The latest poll is here. The margin of error is ion the largish side.

I have never seen so many pollies.

John Alexander appears very old and tired.I have never liked voting for candidates older then myself. Perhaps it is the drive from the Eastern Suburbs from where he lives!!
I have said previously how unimpressive he was as a candidate. KKK on the other hand appears a ball of energy and in the complete opposite to Alexander she has a personalty. I stand by my claim there were better candidates for the ALP than her.

My vote will be a changed vote as in the end the ALP will be getting my vote after voting Liberal twice . In my time honoured tradition I vote to change a Government after two terms and continue to do so until they are defeated.

Showing just how incompetent the Liberals are I have received a flyer from them in CHINESE. Yeah my name sounds chinese doesn't it!

I also got a robocall from Alexander on my mobile. Obviously political calls are allowed if you are on the do not call register.

Tuesday, 12 December 2017

Evangelicals and Jerusalem.

It is said one of the reasons Trump recognised Jerusalem is because US evangelicals strongly supported this.

Gary Burge shows how bad their understanding of the bible is.

A few short points.

1) Modern Jews are not heirs of Abraham. Christians are. The heirs are those who had the faith of Abraham. It is not genealogical.
2) It follows that modern Jews can not gain entry into Heaven as they refuse to recognise Jesus. There is no-one to  bear their sins.
3) it seems a lot of 'evangelical' do not understand this. voters.

Monday, 11 December 2017

In defence of Sam Dastyari

I cannot believe I am about to write a defence of someone I detest but so be it.

I have written previously about him and said like Graham Richardson before him he was very good at self promotion at gullible journalists but in practice he, like Richardson before had no political skills and was hopeless at political strategy.

This is borne out by Richardson's departure from politics and Dastyari latest political immolation.

Any person with even a modicum of political nous would realise the political implications of a chinese businessman paying his expenses. Not our Sam.

However the implications of our same being a double agent is simply absurd. It shows Peter Dutton is a politician that goes over the top. Does he even understand what a double agent is? Our Same is employed both by ASIO and the chinese intelligence service?

What has he done. He has asked a lot of questions of what Australia's role is within the south China sea. So? Are people actually saying the chinese intelligence services are so bereft of knowledge they ask Our Sam to ask the tough questions so they know?  Yes you can see how stupid that line of thought is. When you examine his questions you can see Our Sam is trying to imitate Robert Ray and John Faulkner. He doesn't come within cooee of that.
He gets no information and more  importantly he doesn't show a shifty government as Public Servants squirm in evading questions. In short Our Sam does not know how to ask questions.

Next we have him asking Mrs Coutts Trotter not to meet certain people in Hong Kong. Let us get one thing straight. no-one has ever said Our Sam has much foreign affairs expertise. Also Mrs Coutts trotter and Our Sam are long time factional enemies sometimes bitter enemies. Why would she take any notice of Our Sam's suggestions???

Our Sam should get out of politics but that is because he is hopeless at it not because of allegations that have no evidence.

He will resign and Parliament and the ALP will be far the better for it.

(Yes I was using our sam in a sarcastic vein.)




Who leaked what Our Sam said to his Chinese friend/benefactor?

I very much doubt it was ASIO. I very much doubt if it went to the National Security committee so I go for the Minister responsible for ASIO.

People are not in severe pain when they die

A very interesting article on whether people are in pain when they are facing death.
A great pity those who debated that dreadful bill in Victoria of state authorised killing did not know this. Indeed the bill's supporters said quite the opposite.

I do hope Ken Parish reads it as well.

Sunday, 10 December 2017

Trump and the Stockmarket.

The inestimable David Glasner examines the performance of the Stockmarket and the effect Trump has had on it.

Result not much different to what occurred under Obama and the permanence is less so considering stocks on other counties.

He also notes how people such as those on the Wall Street Journal editorial page has changed opinion almost 180 degrees ( my words not his)!!!

Thursday, 7 December 2017

Around the Traps 8/12/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 6 December 2017

The latest attack on 'welfare unworthies' is contemptible

It is always the case that just when you have a great idea on what to write someone comes along and does it before you ( and usually better than you would have done.)
Ross Gittins has done just that.
Let me add one more thing that Ross did not address.

It adds fodder to the fake news uneducated idiots like those at One Nation will devour.

Australia is a much poorer nation because of this both metaphorically and literally.

Tuesday, 5 December 2017

The Dual Citizenship fiasco continues

Australia's dual citizenship fiasco continues. See HERE

It continues because the Court of disputed Returns really hasn't made clear what  parliamentarians have to do BEFORE nominations are called for Parliament.

Most people who are skilled in legal expertise believe if people make an effort to disqualify themselves from dual citizenship then however even those people want the Court of Disputed Returns to make a full and direct statement on the subject. In other words when the said Court made their judgement not so long ago they did not significantly address this issue. The Court just did not do their job.

Thus it seems to me all cases have to be referred to the Court to find out exactly what prospective candidates have to do before nominations closed.

On the politics of it I hate to say it but Tony Burke is a star for the ALP. He knows how to criticise the government position on this without going over the top. no-one in government is capable of this. George Brandis for example  is absolutely hopeless because of this.

HERE is a view on what ALP members are putting their hopes on.

Monday, 4 December 2017

Spending money on 'new' stadiums is patently absurd

Here in NSW the State government wants to spend well over $1b on building 'new' stadiums from current ones. Believe it or not they want to knock down the Olympic stadium a mere 127 years old and put up a brand new stadium.
No-one involved in sport is being asked to contribute a cent while they will get the benefit!
Let us take the old Sydney Sports ground. It is used primarily by Thugby league and Thugby union and football. The crowds rarely come within cooee of filling the stadium Except when the Sydney derby is on for football. So why do we need a new stadium?

Similarly the Olympic stadium is rarely filled. Only the Thugby League grand final and state of Origin has the stadium filled . sometimes the odd World Cup qualifier does it as well.

Why are we spending so much money when the stadiums will not be used efficiently?

I rarely agree with Peter Fitzsimons but on this I am on an unity ticket.

The State government could well suffer because of this. The punters know other areas of services the government provides that could use this money.

David Rowe on this

Sunday, 3 December 2017

The Draw is good

We know who we will play in the World Cup.

France, Denmark and Peru are in our group. They are all ranked well above us but nevertheless I am happy.
France has a lot of very good players however I do not rate their coach and we play them first.
Peru is a very good side BUT we play them in Europe. I would expect to be beaten in South America but not in Europe.
Denmark have a style we will appreciate and in reality rely on one player Christian Eriksen.

IF we get ourselves a decent coach then we have a very good chance of making the  next round. We need a decent coach though.

Thursday, 30 November 2017

Around the Traps 2/12/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 29 November 2017

Why Trump is unfit for office

Andrew Prokop of Vox nails Trump on various matters in this article.

He is the Fake News President.

He is simply another fat elderly gentlemen man who is gradually losing his marbles

EZRA KLEIN opines about how to impeach him.

Tuesday, 28 November 2017

There is no case for the 'Christian Baker'

I was totally against accepting same sex marriage ( calling it marriage equality is taking cognitive dissonance to a new level) but arguments to protect the mythical christian baker from having to bake a wedding cake to two homosexuals getting 'married' has no biblical basis at all.

It starts and ends with the statement that there is no such thing as a christian baker. There could be a baker who is a christian.
If you are a christian engaged in commerce there is no suggestion simply because you supply goods or services to someone you agree with their political and social views.
There is no instruction in the bible for Christians to abstain from providing their goods or services to people because it might mean they are recognising a sinful lifestyle for example.

There were plenty of sinful lifestyles in New Testament times. The most common being adultery was very common. Men had sex with their mistresses all the time. They only had wives to have children.
Were christian bakers back then told not to bake cakes for them? No!

If there is the mythical baker whom is a baker out there bake the cake. Take it as an evangelical moment!

I might add it two homosexuals came into a cakeshop obviously owned by a christian and then made disparaging remarks or out to make a statement even a public one simply quote a price far too high for them to pay and go on with your business.

Monday, 27 November 2017

Austerity and Mortality

Austerity is an evil policy when not used when the economy is humming. This was done by Hawke in the 80s , Howard in the 90s and Clinton in the USA in the 90s. It worked in these cases just as Keynes said  it would back in 1936!However used when the economy is weak it will lead to a recession or a depression ( a reduction in output of 10% or more).

Simon Wren-Lewis of Mainly Macro fame examines the link between austerity and mortality.

Yet another reason on why not use this policy in the wrong circumstances.

Thursday, 23 November 2017

Around the Traps 24/11/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America


Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

Dianne Coyle (quirky+ book reviews)
Vox Wonk