Is Israel committing genocide

 GENOCIDE is deftly defined.

The basic question is whether Israel is committing it at present.

They have laid siege to Gaza. With the help of egypt no-one can get in but much more imp[ortantly no-one but no-one can leave. Just remember when war occurs people flee from it. Here they cannot .

Thus Israel has determined Gaza canner have food, water not electricity. They have warned people to go to the south of Gaza ( where Israel stil bombs.)  In practice this is meaningless as over 1 million people cannot move in time.Whilst this is very likely a war crime is it genocide?

I have to say in my eyes it is. Quite clearly Israelis do not give a toss of how many Palestinians are killed in their quest for revenge against Hamas. Indeed I just heard on radio a military spokesman essentially say if any are killed it is on them as they were warned.

Palestinians are being killed at a great rate for no reason except they are Palestinians. They cannot leave the are and do not have the basic necessities.

Two interesting and related articles.

• israel-hamas-war-hard-experience-says-a-land-war-wont-go-well-and-faltering-international-support-suggests-the-world-knows-it
  
• https://theconversation.com/jewish-response-to-hamas-war-criticism-comes-from-deep-sense-of-trauma-active-grief-and-fear
  

Mark the Ballot on polling

 Mark the Ballot has an article on are-polls-biased.

Just remember when Morrison won and what he said about the polls.  it is well worth a read

Ross Gittins is wrong

 Ross Gittins does not believe rates need to rise.  Inflation is all about supply side problems not excess demand  and I agree BUT as the 70s showed a supply side shock can increase inflationary expectations and the RBA does not want that.Nor does Australia.

Around the Traps 27/10/23

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Paul Strangio on bill-haydens-remarkable-contribution-to-public-life
• Dan Andrews and Elyse Dwyer on heres-what-happens-to-workers-when-coal-fired-power-plants-close-it-isnt-good
• croaking cassandra on the-manufacturing-sector, finding-external-balance
• Ross Gittins on want-better-productivity-cut-population, identity-politics-is-destroying-our-public-schools, paying-tax-is-good-and-for-better-government-we-should-pay-more
• John Quiggin on its-good-the-high-court-overturned-victorias-questionable-ev-tax-but-theres-a-sting-in-the-tail
• Mark the Ballot on voice-referendum-2023
• Kevin Bonham on will-spirit-of-hare-clark-be-killed-by-farce
• John Hawkins on as-treasurer-bill-hayden-set-labor-on-the-path-to-economic-rationalism
• Helen Spiropoulos and Rebecca Bachman on how-australian-companies-can-fudge-their-numbers-to-show-social-and-environmental-progress
• John Hawkins on petrol-is-holding-up-inflation-the-7-graphs-that-show-whats-happening-to-prices-and-what-it-will-mean-for-interest-rates
• Kimberly Crofts and Liam Phelan on all-mines-close-how-can-mining-towns-like-mount-isa-best-manage-the-ups-and-downs

OZ Climate

• Mohan Yellishetty and Peter Bach on cleaning-up-australias-80-000-disused-mines-is-a-huge-job-but-the-payoffs-can-outweigh-the-costs
• Peter Burnett on how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia
• solar-behind-big-price-falls-as-grid-demand-and-coal-power-pushed-to-record-lows
  
• south-australia-potential-wind-and-solar-reaches-record-264-pct-of-demand-on-saturday
  
• rollout-rage-the-environment-vs-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia
  
• australias-main-grid-averages-more-than-50-pct-renewables-over-24-hours-for-first-time
  
• australias-electricity-market-most-volatile-in-world-as-clunky-coal-clashes-with-solar
  
• australian-solar-projects-face-insurance-crisis-as-climate-impacts-take-hold
  
• companies-can-speed-up-the-energy-transition-we-should-let-them
  
• cutting-off-solar-isnt-the-answer-there-are-smarter-alternatives
  
• big-batteries-and-demand-response-dominate-new-very-fast-frequency-control-market
  
• south-australia-takes-another-bold-leap-into-deep-green-energy-future
  
• government-snowed-again-if-it-believes-snowy-2-0-is-a-commercial-investment
  

Northern America

• Shirin Ali on trump-trials-update-bad-week-for-the-donald
• Ken Melvin on when-america-became-a-banana-republic
• the conversable economist on 20/construction-jobs-a-partial-substitute-for-manufacturing-jobs
• the grumpy economist on leonhardt-on-investment
• lawyers guns money on donald-trumps-economic-populism-doesnt-exist-so-it-must-be-invented Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on the deficit is indeed too high Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on america-needs-a-bigger-better-bureaucracy
• new deal democrat on a-further-examination-of-the-state-of-the-economic-tailwind, stock-prices-and-bond-yields-during-disinflationary-deflationary-and-reflationary-periods
• Sam Roggeveen on united-states-more-normal-less-exceptional-you-think
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-domestic-violence-abusers-gun-policy-us-rahimi
• the overshoot on the-us-economy-is-booming-for-now thanks Brad
• Jeremy Stahl on donald-trump-arguments-to-dismiss-case-explained
• David Graham on election-denial-republican-house-speaker-race
• Michael Luo on romney-a-reckoning-mckay-coppins-book-review
• James Hamilton on strong-gdp-growth-and-consumer-spending
• Jeet Heer on biden-zombie-policy-israel-gaza
• Mathew Green on new-house-speaker-mike-johnson-leads-a-gop-majority-weakened-by-decades-of-declining-party-authority
• Dahlia Lithwick on why-donald-trump-loves-mike-johnson
• Alex Kirshner on elon-musk-twitter-x-one-year-everything-he-ruined

Europe

• Mark Pierce on war-crimes-trial-fallen-french-war-hero-lessons-today
• Danielle Albertazzi on giorgia-meloni-how-the-realities-of-office-trumped-the-italian-prime-ministers-radicalism
• John West on marshall-plan-ukraine
• stumbling and mumbling on management-in-question

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on more-on-china-q3-gdp, guest-contribution-chinas-great-leap-backward
• Rahman Yaacob on history-domestic-dynamics-how-asean-members-see-hamas-israeli-conflict
• Ellen Ioannes on israeli-hamas-war-netanyahu-opinion
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestine-ground-invasion-strategy
• Akshat Rathi on how-china-left-the-world-far-behind-in-the-battery-race Thanks Brad
• Asher Kaufman on hezbollah-alone-will-decide-whether-lebanon-already-on-the-brink-of-collapse-gets-dragged-into-israel-hamas-war
• Ian Parmeter on even-if-israel-can-completely-eliminate-hamas-does-it-have-a-long-term-plan-for-gaza
• Robert Waldmann on fuel-for-peace, biden-netanyahu-and-gaza
• Tim Lindsey and Simon Butt on a-twist-in-indonesias-presidential-election-does-not-bode-well-for-the-countrys-fragile-democracy
• John Ciorcian on the-israel-hamas-war-deepens-the-struggle-between-us-and-iran-for-influence-in-the-middle-east
• Catherine Gegout on where-the-icc-stands-if-war-crimes-are-committed-on-either-side-of-the-israel-hamas-war
• Matt Garrow on understanding-the-history-of-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-in-5-charts
• Jack Sato on fix-stans-have-it
• Fred Kaplan on was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election
• Barack Obama on my-statement-on-israel-and-gaza thanks Brad
• Peter Layton on world-looks-elsewhere-china-stirs-trouble-south-china-sea
• Genevieve Donnellan-May on beijing-s-interest-middle-corridor
• Liz Zhou on protests-palestine-israel
• Chris Bertram on Israel-and-palestine-simple-choices
• Shahram Akbahzedah on despite-its-inflammatory-rhetoric-iran-is-unlikely-to-attack-israel-heres-why
• Warief Basorie on election-loophole-could-tarnish-jokowi-s-legacy
• Fintan O'Toole on the-many-and-the-few-israel-gaza
• Sigal Samuel on israel-palestine-hamas-gaza-nakba-displacement-refugees-history

Wonk

• noahopinion on thoughts-on-techno-optimism, a-lot-of-what-you-see-in-the-news
• Tyler Cowen on the-polity-that-is-argentina, what-is-it-we-do-and-do-not-know-about-macroeconomics
• Brad De Long on in-which-i-direct-you-to-unfinished-business
• the homeward bound symphony on diseases-of-the-intellect Thanks Nick
• Paul Griffin on could-gut-fungi-be-linked-to-severe-covid-what-to-make-of-new-research-findings
• David Andrews on sign-times-resurgence-pacts-treaties-alliances
• Brendan Walker-Munro on dual-use-conundrum
• Mainly Macro on the-extreme-right-and-austerity
• the conversable economist on value-of-a-statistical-life-vsl-time-for-an-update, the-limited-effects-of-taxes-on-sugar-sweetened-beverages
• programmable mutter on markets-are-now-battlefields thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on retrofuturism

General

• Tim Harford on ubiquitous-yet-hated-what-does-the-triumph-of-powerpoint-teach-us-about-generative-ai
• Alexander Howard on friday-essay-the-secret-lives-of-ian-fleming-and-john-le-carre-the-spymasters-shaped-by-a-lack-of-parental-love

Climate

• science of doom on extreme-weather-15-modeling-tropical-cyclones
• rabett run on the-latest-in-here-is-shiny-statistical
• Damian Carrington on rapid-ice-melt-in-west-antarctica-now-inevitable-research-shows
• and Then Theres Physics on conversations
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-cloud, deal-with-ccs
• science advances on the south american monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation thanks Brad

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• what-is-public-opinion
  
• bloomberg-news-and-its-embarrassing-calibration-error
  
• wow-those-are-some-really-bad-referee-reports
  
• modeling-social-behavior-paul-smaldinos-cool-new-textbook-on-agent-based-modeling
  
• springboards-to-overconfidence-how-can-we-avoid
  
• eda-and-modeling
  
• the organisational plumber on a post mortem on the gino case thanks Brad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-woman-economist-in-charge
  
• Tyler Cowen on the-women-who-made-modern-economics , eighteen-days-in-october, george-harrison-the-reluctant-beatle

Vox Wonk

• weight-discrimination-how-obesity-affects-wages-and-why-it-matters
  
• economic-growth-prospects-face-population-ageing
  
• forecasting-euro-area-inflation-machine-learning-models
  
• outlook-mixed-asymmetric-effects-weather-shocks-inflation
  
• claudia-goldin-nobel-laureate-gender-gaps-and-broader-agenda-inequality
  
• glossy-icing-not-so-savoury-base-eu-fiscal-policies-2022
  
• unravelling-chaos-evaluating-uk-tax-regime
  
• using-lotteries-attract-deposits-evidence-mexican-banks
  
• how-fiscal-policy-offset-negative-welfare-effect-euro-area-inflation
  
• impact-war-human-capital-and-productivity-ukraine
  
• consequences-weak-monetary-policy-learning-turkish-experience
  

Another rate rise is certain.

 The quarterly CPI was out yesterday and it was bad. Principally because of petrol prices and rents but electricity prices were there too. Gee Thanks Tony for getting rid of the ETS.

In any other time the RBA would not raise rates because of petrol prices but these are not ordinary times. They cannot take the chance a one-of rise gets into expectations.

It has to be 'tough' and reduce expectations and so thus it must raise rates perhaps for the last time. We can only hope.

Hamas

 I have little time so here is Fred Kaplan on was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election

Israel should always be judged harsher than Hamas

 One cannot compare Hamas and the State of Israel.

Hamas is the personification of evil. They have no moral compass. they murder babies without any remorse or care for petes sake. They lie all the time. They do not even care when their rockets ( not missiles) kill their own people because of their volatility. They are terrorists. Terrorists kill innocent people for a cause.

Israel on the other hand is a democracy and a member of the westerns world. It must and should have a moral compass. It therefore must be judged to a much higher standard and not compared to Hamas.

We should not ever expect them to impose a siege on Gaza which will not be lifted until the hostages are freed. We should not expect to hear Palestinians called animals. We should not expect them to conflate palextinijns with Hamas. We should not expect Israel to deny water, electricity and food to people.

They are war crimes. If Israel want to be a modern Western country they need to show it and recognise it. It is tough being a civilised country particularly when you are fighting terrorists. You don not fight them by adopting their tactics.

Friends of Israel need to tell them this.

P.S.

Am I the only person who thinks Israel never workshopped a worst case scenario. They are acting at present as if there is no plan at all.

US Politics

 I love Andrew Gelman's blog which is mainly about stats.

If you missed this on the weekend with Around the Traps here it is on its own.

his-continued-strength-in-the-party-is-mostly-the-result-of-republican-elites-reluctance-to-challenge-him-which-is-a-mixture-of-genuine-support-and-exaggerated-ideas-about-his-strength-among-republican-voters

Around theTraps 20/10/23

 it is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Debrin Foxcroft et al on its-national-on-the-night-as-new-zealand-turns-right-2023-election-results-at-a-glance
• Dennis Muller on how-did-the-media-perform-on-the-voice-referendum-lets-talk-about-truth-telling-and-impartiality
• Paul Strangio on voice-referendum-results-point-to-shifting-faultlines-in-australian-politics
• Frank Bongiorno on if-there-is-to-be-any-healing-after-the-voice-referendum-it-will-be-a-long-journey
• Ross Gittins on chalmers-should-give-rba-employment-target, why-your-income-tax-refund-is-so-much-less-than-last-years, how-much-government-spending-is-wasted
• croaking cassandra on accountability, what-should-be-done-about-the-reserve-bank
• Daniel Flitton on australia-s-next-challenge-indigenous-foreign-policy
• Naoise Mcdonagh on australia-must-play-geoeconomics-game-or-risk-being-side-lined
• Antony Green on the-most-meaningless-graph-ive-ever-drawn
• Libby Sander on stress-levels-in-australian-workplaces-among-the-highest-as-we-battle-constant-interruptions-and-irritating-colleagues
• Naoise McDonagh on australia-must-play-geoeconomics-game-or-risk-being-side-lined
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-twilight-of-poll
• Greg Jericho on australia-is-already-an-energy-superpower-we-should-be-using-that-to-drive-the-world-towards-renewables
• Adam Morton on australia-needs-drastic-renewables-boost-as-nuclear-not-an-option-for-decades-says-centre-right-thinktank
• Stuart Khan on the-dams-are-full-for-now-but-sydney-will-need-new-water-supplies-as-rainfall-becomes-less-reliable
• Michelle Arrow on sydney-opera-house-at-50-a-public-appeal-a-controversial-build-a-lavish-opening-and-a-venue-for-all
• institutional economics on australias-incredible-shrinking-net-foreign-liability-position

OZ Climate

• Tracey Dodd and Will Harvey on the-human-factor-why-australias-net-zero-transition-risks-failing-unless-it-is-fair
• Shukla Poddar on climate-change-will-affect-solar-power-and-grid-stability-across-australia-heres-how
• Tim Nelson et al on the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy
• Matt Clements and Maria Byrne on young-crown-of-thorns-starfish-can-survive-heatwaves-thats-yet-more-bad-news-for-the-great-barrier-reef
• Amy Kapuano on can-unesco-save-great-barrier-reef
• wind-energy-workforce-needs-to-double-in-australia-to-help-deliver-colossal-growth
  
• how-to-unlock-250-billion-in-energy-assets-under-and-on-our-own-roofs
  
• australias-biggest-battery-2-4gwh-wins-federal-environmental-approval
  
• its-time-for-reconciliation-to-be-led-by-the-clean-energy-opportunity
  
• new-design-could-make-lower-cost-more-efficient-lithium-sulphur-batteries-a-reality
  
• findings-from-nsw-inquiry-into-humelink-and-why-we-should-listen-to-them
  
• south-australia-this-is-what-a-90-per-cent-wind-and-solar-grid-looks-like
  
• wind-and-solar-close-to-70-pct-of-australias-main-grid-as-fossil-fuels-sent-to-new-low
  
• rooftop-solar-switch-off-why-and-where-its-being-used-and-where-its-headed
  
• did-big-batteries-break-the-fossil-fuel-cartel-on-the-grid-or-did-they-just-join-it
  
• iea-says-massive-grid-expansion-needed-to-avoid-gridlock-in-switch-to-green-energy
  
• origin-says-eraring-delay-still-on-the-table-but-transition-not-happening-fast-enough
  
• record-rooftop-solar-slashes-wholesale-electricity-prices
• climate-change-will-affect-solar-power-and-grid-stability-across-australia-heres-how
  
• the-diversity-argument-for-this-new-transmission-link-doesnt-stack-up
  
• ret-is-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy
  
• bigger-and-faster-cefc-says-more-than-120-billion-needed-to-decarbonise-the-grid
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on inversions-bear-steepening-inversions-and-recessions
• Mark Pierce on imagining-trump-s-second-term
• noahopinion on were-not-ready-for-the-big-one
• Brad De Long on what-is-the-ten-year-real-rate-going, what-is-the-ten-year-real-rate-going-to-be
• Dylan Scott on healthcare-insurance-marketplace-open-enrollment-employer-sponsored-united-blue-cross-shield-aetna
• Bill Haskell on economists-thought-this-type-of-recovery-could-never-happen
• newdeal democrat on the-bearish-steepening-and-the-death-of-refinancing
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-ghost-guns-garland-blackhawk-manufacturing
• Dennis Aftergut and Frederick Baron on first-amendment-gag-order-against-trump
• Fred Kaplan on gaza-hospital-fallout-biden-speech-emergency-visit-israel
• Ronald Brownstein on us-house-democracy-threat-republican-speaker-race
• John Cassidy on the-symbiotic-democracy-eroding-relationship-between-donald-trump-and-jim-jordan
• Jeremy Stahl on sidney-powell-plea-deal-donald-trump-ouch
• Steven Lubet on amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-ethics-code-smdh
• Bill Haskell on the-speaker-of-the-house-battle
• the grumpy economist on political-prisoner-dilemma
• Jeet Heer on msnbc-gaza-hosts-islamophobia
• Mike Konzal on labor-participation-inflation-unemployment thanks Brad
• Robert Katzberg on kenneth-chesebro-sidney-powell-guilty-plea-trump

Europe

• Jen Kirby on poland-elections-2023-october-15-democracy-law-and-justice-tusk-opposition-ukraine
• Mainly Macro on what-does-being-iron-chancellor-actually-mean
• stumbling and mumbling on in-defence-of-labour

Asia

• Priya Chacko on celebrated-novelist-arundhati-roy-faces-prosecution-in-india-for-a-speech-she-gave-in-2010
• Topher McDougall on gaza-depends-on-un-and-other-global-aid-groups-for-food-medicine-and-basic-services-israel-hamas-war-means-nothing-is-getting-in
• Mitali Muhkerjee on israel-gaza-conflict-when-social-media-fakes-are-rampant-news-verification-is-vital
• Ellen Ioannes on israel-hamas-war-gaza-humanitarian-crisis, israel-hamas-war-egypt-humanitarian-crisis-gaza-israel-palestine-rafah-crossing
• Ellen Ioanes et al on israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestine-explainer
• Jonathan Guyer on arab-world-israel-palestine-conflict-middle-east
• Ayman Ismail on humanitarian-report-whats-happening-in-gaza
• Avner Cohen on deadliest-day-for-jews-since-the-holocaust-spurs-a-crisis-of-confidence-in-the-idea-of-israel-and-its-possible-renewal
• Nina Gren on palestinian-conflict-how-despair-can-drive-people-to-violence-even-if-it-puts-their-lives-in-danger
• Ian Lustick on how-gaza-became-an-open-air-prison
• Eric Kramer on did-the-netanyahu-government-have-a-plan-for-war-against-hamas-does-it-now, is-peace-realistic
• Jane McAdam and Ben Saul on gaza-is-being-strangled-why-israels-evacuation-order-violates-international-law
• Jason Hart and Caitlin Proctor on gaza-conflict-how-childrens-lives-are-affected-on-every-level
• Julie Norman on hamas-and-hezbollah-how-they-are-different-and-why-they-might-cooperate-against-israel
• Siobhan Byrne on how-women-in-israel-and-palestine-are-pushing-for-peace-together
• Eyal Mayroz on yes-israels-occupation-of-palestinian-lands-has-to-end-but-massacres-of-civilians-wont-bring-this-end-any-closer
• Ben Rhodes on gaza-the-cost-of-escalation
• Tyler Cowen on chinas-world-view-demystifying-china-to-prevent-global-conflict
• Nathan French on hamas-was-unpopular-in-gaza-before-it-attacked-israel-surveys-showed-gazans-cared-more-about-fighting-poverty-than-armed-resistance
• Amy Maguire on can-israel-and-hamas-be-held-to-account-for-alleged-crimes-against-civilians
• Nicole Narea on israel-palestine-timeline-gaza-hamas-war-conflict
• noahopinion on economic-possibilities-for-gaza
• David French on gaza-israel-war-morals thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on china-gdp-growth-in-q3
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestine-ground-invasion-strategy

Wonk

• Ricardo Gabriel et al on  the political costs of austerity Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on i-do-not-believe-there-are-any-just-wars-being-waged-in-the-middle-east, engels-and-marx-as-epigones-of-adam-smith
• James Cross on 50-years-ago-when-the-middle-east-was-at-war-oil-prices-skyrocketed-but-it-probably-wont-happen-this-time
• Tim Harford on the-art-of-making-good-misstakes
• stumbling and mumbling on on-reflective-equilibrium
• the grumpy economist on heterogeneous-agent-fiscal-theory
• Hayley Cullen on how-mistaken-identity-can-lead-to-wrongful-convictions
• Ken Melvin on blame-and-consequences
• Abraham Reisman and  S I Rosenbaum on israel-gaza-war-hamas-judaism-pikuach-nefesh
• Melanie Pill on crafting-new-loss-damage-fund
• Pankaj Mishra on when-the-barbarians-take-over-february-1933-wittstock
• Ben Bullock on insomnia-and-mental-disorders-are-linked-but-exactly-how-is-still-a-mystery
• Robert Walker on china-s-car-exports-pose-key-question-policymakers-compete-or-protect
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-exchange-rate-elasticities-and-product-sophistication

General

• Craig Stevens and Natalie Robinson on we-landed-a-camera-on-venus-before-seeing-parts-of-our-own-oceans-its-time-to-ramp-up-observations-closer-to-home
• Thomas White and Tanya Latty on fly-season-what-to-know-about-australias-most-common-flies-and-how-to-keep-them-away
• John Fraser on beyond-covid-vaccines-what-else-could-mrna-technology-do-for-our-health
• Leon Lack and Nicole Lavato on how-dangerous-is-insomnia-how-fear-of-what-its-doing-to-your-body-can-wreck-your-sleep
• Ryan Shannon on we-traced-a-powerful-radio-signal-to-the-most-distant-source-yet-a-galaxy-billions-of-lightyears-away

Climate

• Clare Francis on global-south-activists-seek-human-rights-framework-climate-crisis
• Daniel Harrison on could-marine-cloud-brightening-reduce-coral-bleaching-on-the-great-barrier-reef
• Peter Sinclair on insurance-giant-warns-of-extreme-climate-risk
• Skeptical Science on at-a-glance-pastco2, iea-report-terrific-news
• Adam Morton on will-the-earth-breach-its-15c-guardrail-sooner-than-we-thought
• Andrew Constable and Jess Melbourne-Thomas on more-than-200-scientists-from-19-countries-want-to-tell-us-the-southern-ocean-is-in-trouble
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-as-an-environmental-concern, ocean-warming-and-acidification-detrimentally-affect-coral-tissue-regeneration-at-a-mediterranean-co2-vent
• science of doom on natural-variability-attribution-and-climate-models-12
• Ben Geman on fossil-fuel-electricity-production-global-peak

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• bayes-factors-prior-cross-validation-posterior
  
• i-am-a-junior-undergraduate-student-majoring-in-linguistics-and-have-recently-started-conducting-brain-imaging-studies
  
• a-successful-example-of-adversarial-collaboration-when-does-this-approach-work-and-when-does-it-not
  
• getting-the-first-stage-wrong
  
• why-arent-there-more-fake-reviews-on-yelp-etc
  
• academia-corner-new-candidate-for-american-statistical-associations-founders-award-enduring-contribution-award-from-the-american-political-science-association-and-edge-foundation-just-dropped
  
• his-continued-strength-in-the-party-is-mostly-the-result-of-republican-elites-reluctance-to-challenge-him-which-is-a-mixture-of-genuine-support-and-exaggerated-ideas-about-his-strength-among-repu
  
• more-canaries
  
• Kaiser Fung on that-google-business

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• maniacs
  

Vox Wonk

• corporate-investment-cyclical-slowdown-versus-structural-needs
  
• structural-transformation-and-value-change-british-abolitionist-movement
  
• nick-crafts-and-importance-history-understanding-economic-performance
  
• smoke-and-mirrors-look-inside-esg-fund-portfolios
  
• scientific-experimentation-generative-ai
  
• balancing-elimination-double-marginalisation-and-market-foreclosure-closer-look
  
• intergenerational-transmission-housing-wealth
  
• us-inflation-reduction-act-how-eu-affected-and-how-it-should-react
  
• calm-storm-overlooked-predictive-power-asset-prices-financial-stability
  
• reboot-uk-eu-relationship-financial-services-regulation
  
• explaining-differences-productivity-across-cities-evidence-16-latin-american-and
  
• one-size-does-not-fit-all-policy-relevant-heterogeneity-health-behaviour-lessons
  

you cannot wage war on terrorists

 Israel is trying to destroy Hamas. Rather ironic since they were one of the reasons they came to into being!

Let us get fair dinkum, Terrorists are terrorists because they do not give a damn about innocent civilians. They murderb them without a problem. Israel should know this. Jewish terrorists helped create the State of Israel and they were as bloodthirsty as Hamas back in 1948 and before. Again more irony

Declaring war against hamas is meaningless. The terrorists of Hamas merely mingle with ordinary Palestinians in Gaza. Attempting to destroy them will always mean killing ordinary palestinians. This is why there are more dead palestinians then israelis. Telling them there will be no water, food or electricity is both meaningless and war crime. Hospitals now are operating in some case without anesthetic for operations when they can have operations.

Telling half the population to move south is another meaningless gesture.Physically it is impossible. what do all the pregnant women in hospital do? Indeed what do the other people in hospital do?

I'm sorry but a civilised country does not do this. It is like israel never entertained the worst case scenario and thus do not have much idea of what to do next.

Just imagine you do get get rid of Hamas. Will something similar or heaven forbid worse rise in its place.

Israel has done everything it can do to ensure there is no two state solution. This has consequences.

I have one question about the hospital being blown up. If jihadi rockets cannot blow up an ordinary house then how did a whole hospital get blown up.  There are explanations for this but it would mean hospitals having stuff in them that they should not have. I would not discount that.

Aftermath of the Referendum

 I was not surprised by the result of the referendum and as 1967 shows bi-partisanism does not guarantee a positive result.

So what are we to make of the result?

What are we to make of the explanation that a lot of voters did not know what they were voting about. I think it does show some voters are stupid or lazy or both. It was not hard to find out what the referendum was about. how in the hell could anyone say they di not know what the referendum was about?

Allied to this was the problem some voters did not think this was a first order issue. They wanted the government to concentrate on reducing inflation for example. These people do not believe anyone can walk and chew gum at the same time!

Others wanted more detail which was always unrealistic. ( See Anne Twomey). The detail comes from the legislation which can only come if a referendum is passed. It can also be changed at any time by any government.

By voting against the voice voters have told the Government and Parliament they do not want input from local aboriginal communities on any policies that affects them.

when the Justice system is wrong

 A must read article entitled how-mistaken-identity-can-lead-to-wrongful-convictions.

Pot Pourri

 A lot has happened.

Referendum

I always thought it would lose even with bipartisan support. It appears people were still confused about it. Some thought it a distraction so they could not chew gum and walk at the same time. What few people have written about is no government can consult with Aboriginals on Aboriginal policy as Australia has rejected this.

Ann Twomey is correct in saying we would not be a nation if the no section demand for detail was around then.  

New Zealand

The country has a new government which is good from my point of view as the Labour party had two terms of government.

Middle East

Firstly a country cannot fight a war with a terrorist organisation only a country. I Think Brad De Long is on the money. Israel is clearly after revenge not a just solution. A pity they do not read their Hebrew bible and cogitate why sanctuary cities were created. you cannot move half the population to the south of Gaza without a  lot of civilians being killed.

Denying those people water, electricity ( how do hospitals work?) and food is simply inhumane and a war crime.

I should add there is no denying Hamas are very evil but if you are going to assert the have beheaded babies then show proof. Afterall we have seen pictures of children being murdered, burnt alive so headless children is simply showing yet again the horrors of terrorisms. There is no need to gild the lily.

Socceroos

A pretty good performance by our team against England. some selections like Duke mystify me as he won't play in the next world cup and we give away possession far too easily. Harry Souttar had another strong game. Why can he not get  permanent selection at Leicester? 

Around the Traps 13/10/23

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Daniel Flitton on how-australia-features-trump-s-crosshairs
• croaking cassandra on psc-not-walking-the-talk, one-final-post-on-psc-mpp, gdp-and-gdp-pc-where-does-nz-rank-in-the-imf-numbers
• Ross Gittins on its-time-for-more-sensible-thinking-on-productivity, voting-no-you-may-have-this-key-assumption-wrong, why-our-standard-of-living-will-be-slower
• Ryan Neelam on voice-towards-fuller-expression-nationhood
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-rolling-final-week-roundup
• Peter Hannan on electricity-prices-wholesale-down-sydney-power-bills
• Greg Barton on lets-not-kid-ourselves-trumpification-is-becoming-our-problem-too
• Tony Wood on why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it
• Greg Jericho on imf-sees-bleaker-economic-times-ahead-for-australia-but-the-pictures-not-all-bad
• David Goodman on why-has-china-released-detained-australian-journalist-cheng-lei
• Antony Green on how-referendum-results-relate-to-levels-of-party-support

OZ Climate

• the-massive-battery-storage-projects-that-will-replace-coal-and-gas-and-fossil-cars
  
• australia-needs-new-targets-and-some-actual-policies-to-keep-pace-on-renewables
  
• solar-switch-off-a-must-for-all-states-says-aemo-to-control-seven-erarings-of-rooftop-pv
  
• biggest-battery-facility-in-nsw-is-now-fully-operational
  
• south-australia-is-going-to-need-a-bigger-battery-to-keep-the-lights-on-in-evening-peak
  
• power-to-the-people-why-rooftop-solar-is-key-to-australias-renewables-target
  
• turning-green-to-gold-australia-has-to-make-its-own-luck-in-the-race-to-renewables
  
• huge-wind-and-solar-plans-win-approval-for-brookfields-origin-bid-despite-network-fears
  
• not-listening-to-scientists-most-australians-dont-think-climate-change-is-a-serious-problem
  
• new-climate-law-compels-companies-to-disclose-all-their-emissions-its-a-big-deal
  
• rooftop-solar-pv-production-reaches-a-new-milestone-12gw-for-the-first-time
  
• accc-rejects-aemo-request-to-co-ordinate-repairs-of-ageing-coal-clunkers
  
• Chris Briggs on a-successful-energy-transition-depends-on-managing-when-people-use-power-so-how-do-we-make-demand-more-flexible

Northern America

• Dahlia Lithwick on gop-chaos-scotus-stakes
• new deal democrat on an-excellent-headline-jobs-number-may-mask-unresolved-seasonality-while-unemployment-weakness-stuck-at-a-higher-level
• Sidney Blumenthal on the-greater-the-fear-trump-feels-the-more-sinister-his-threats-become
• Joel Eissenberg on history-of-the-african-slave-trade-in-north-america
• Emma Shortis on mccarthy-s-fall-far-right-influence-american-foreign-policy
• the conversable economist on evidence-on-declining-intergenerational-mobility-in-the-united-states, the-case-for-housing-first
• Jeet Heer on israel-us-911-lessons, cornel-west-rfk-jr-biden-democrats
• Alex Tabbarok on the-deaths-of-despair-narrative-is-wrong
• Daniel Drezner on when-conservatives-undermine-national-security Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05
• Andrew Prokop on house-speaker-race-steve-scalise-republicans-jim-jordan
• Fred Kaplan on trump-criticizes-israel-florida-speech-soleimani
• Tyler Cowen on cost-benefit-analysis-of-marijuana-legalization

Europe

• Luke Harding and Dan Sabbagh on as-ukraine-reels-from-attacks-on-land-conflict-at-sea-signals-hope
• Fred Kaplan on vladimir-putin-boris-yeltsin-russia-parliament-shelling
• Sussan Barba on armenias-mortal-calculus-nagorno-karabakh
• Mainly Macro on thirteen-years-of-creating-doubt-and-uncertainty-for-business
• Robert Dover on israel-gaza-conflict-an-opportunity-for-putin-while-the-world-is-distracted

Asia

• Patrick Wintour on hamas-attack-has-abruptly-altered-the-picture-for-middle-east-diplomacy
• Christian Yao on chinas-youth-unemployment-problem-has-become-a-crisis-we-can-no-longer-ignore
• Eyal Mayroz on after-a-shocking-hamas-assault-on-israel-both-sides-brace-for-the-devastating-fallout
• Bashir Abbas on myanmar-india-should-also-engage-opposition
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-war-hamas-attack-explained-southern-israel-gaza, netanyahu-israel-right-hamas-gaza-war-history, israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestine-leftist-democrats
• Jonathan Guyer on israel-palestine-conflict-history-explained-gaza-hamas, israel-gaza-siege-palestinians-hamas-humanitarian-crisis
• noahopinion on a-three-state-solution-is-the-only-solution
• Max Boot on gaza-israel-war-hamas-destruction
• Aaron Pilkington on the-israel-hamas-war-no-matter-who-loses-iran-wins
• Don Waxman on hamas-assault-echoes-1973-arab-israeli-war-a-shock-attack-and-questions-of-political-intelligence-culpability
• Iam Parmeter on why-did-hamas-attack-and-why-now-what-does-it-hope-to-gain
• Adnaan Amir on pakistan-intends-deport-17-million-afghans
• Daniel Flitton on israel-hamas-conflict-key-questions-long-difficult-war
• Fred Kaplan on israel-war-hamas-gaza-what-happens-next
• Joel Eissenberg on hamas-and-israel-a-timely-reminder
• Michel Groppi on hamas-has-achieved-what-it-wanted-by-attacking-israel-terror-escalation-and-disruption-to-the-international-order
• Jason Hart on children-in-palestine-and-israel-continue-to-suffer-as-international-law-is-routinely-ignored
• Michael Armstrong on the-unprecedented-attack-against-israel-by-hamas-included-precise-armed-drones-and-thousands-of-rockets
• Robert Huish on israeli-hostages-will-undoubtedly-be-used-as-human-shields-in-brutal-hamas-israel-war
• Maha Nassar on the-gaza-strip-why-the-history-of-the-densely-populated-enclave-is-key-to-understanding-the-current-conflict
• Mary Harris on israel-hamas-gaza-war-causes-response-options
• Bruce Hoffman on hamas-covenant-israel-attack-war-genocide
• David Schulman on deja-vu-in-israel
• Tarek Baconi on gaza-without-pretenses
• Raja Shehadeh on causes-for-despair-palestine
• Robin Wright on israel-may-decimate-hamas-but-can-it-win-this-war
• Lydia Khalil on israel-palestine-conflict-once-more-overriding-issue-regional-security
• Andrew Selth on beware-sensational-claims-about-myanmar-s-security-environment
• AW Ohlheiser on misinformation-israel-hamas-war-social-media-literacy-palestine

Wonk

• Ken Melvin on starting-a-war-is-criminal
• noahopinion on youre-not-going-to-like-what-comes-after-paxamerica, western-leftists-have-lost-the-plot
• the conversable economist on claudia-goldin-a-nobel-for-the-study-of-womens-labor-market-outcomes
• renew economy on factcheck-do-large-solar-projects-produce-more-co2-than-they-save
• Emily Tampkin on israel-hamas-war-palestine-stand-with-israel-netanyahu
• Anne Applebaum on israel-war-hamas-terrorism-ukraine-russia
• noahopinion on a-nobel-for-the-story-of-women-in-the-workforce
• everything is horrible on the-economic-anxiety-explanation-of-fascism-is-wrong Thanks Brad

General

• Tim Harford on confessions-of-a-work-from-homer
• Phillipa Matyr on a-short-history-of-insomnia-and-how-we-became-obsessed-with-sleep
• Tyler Cowen on eating-alone

Climate

• Benji Jones on amazon-rainforest-deforestation-tipping-point
• moyhu on september-global-surface-templs-up-0191
• Tilo Ziehn et al on even-temporary-global-warming-above-2-will-affect-life-in-the-oceans-for-centuries
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-co2data, ClimateAdam-2023-weather-is-extreme
• ocean acidification on contrasting-effects-of-temperature-and-biological-processes-on-aragonite-saturation-state-at-the-a4hdyd-station-in-the-north-yellow-sea
• the science of doom on natural-variability-attribution-and-climate-models-11

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• what-role-will-hydrological-science-play-in-the-age-of-machine-learning-i-think-it-will-depend-on-the-problem-youre-trying-to-solve
  
• the-ministry-of-food-sez-potatoes-are-fattening
  
• gigerenzer-simple-heuristics-to-run-a-research-group
  
• rubric-based-holistic-word-salad-represents-a-change-from-traditional-approaches-to-publish-papers-in-physics
  
• difference-in-differences-whats-the-difference
  
• debate-over-effect-of-reduced-prosecutions-on-urban-homicides-also-larger-questions-about-synthetic-control-methods-in-causal-inference
  
• simple-pseudocode-for-transformer-decoding-a-la-gpt
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• books-at-a-workshop
  
• Brad De Long on michael-lewis-definitely-does-not-understand-how-to-play-the-probabilities
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Julianne Schultz on i-cant-argue-away-the-shame-frontier-violence-and-family-history-converge-in-david-marrs-harrowing-and-important-new-book
• John Hendrikson on lou-reed-the-king-of-new-york-will-hermes-book
• Brad De Long on should-we-read-steven-pressfields

Vox Wonk

• lessons-history-three-generations-currency-crises
  
• zombie-lending-channel-monetary-policy
  
• impact-high-temperatures-productivity-case-study-professional-tennis
  
• environmental-burden-aesthetic-norms
  
• temperature-and-local-manufacturing-concentration
  
• new-evidence-spatial-wage-inequality-across-north-america-and-western-europe
  
• economic-warfare-lessons-two-world-wars
  
• reluctant-entrepreneurs-evidence-chinas-state-controlled-enterprise-reform
  
• patience-and-north-south-divide-student-achievement-italy-and-us
  
• role-data-skills-modern-labour-market
  
• effect-climate-policies-firms-financing-and-investment-new-evidence-and-policy
  

alas Israel now commits war crimes

 It was inevitable as history shows us.

Destroying buildings people live in and doing it without warning is a war crime. We denounce this  in Ukraine.

Denying people water, electricity and food is a war crime.

Israel has told Palestinians to get out of Gaza. Only problem is Israel does not allow anyone to enter Israel to the north nor to use the sea and Egypt only allows a few hundred each day in the south. They are in essence saying to Palestinians if you are killed it is your decision. It isn't.

The  problem here is people simply wish to want to ape the people they are fighting. How could Jews ignore why there sanctuary cities in their hebrew bible or what we call the Old Testament ? It is chilling to hear people not caring about the consequences of invading Gaza

When people commit horrific acts it is hard to remains civilised. Israel needs to be reminded of this and Israel's friends such as Australia needs to remind them of this.

Whomever it was in Israeli security that thought up creating Hamas as a counter to the PLO should have many sleepless nights.

This is not the time to demonstrate for Palestine

 I never fail to be amazed by those who , like I, would like to see a nation of Palestine. Their political nous seems to be zero.

If you organise and/ or participate in demonstrations in support of Palestine now you are giving de-facto support of Hamas and its actions. That aint going to get support from most people.

I heard on the radio this morning David Crowe a seasoned SMH journalist saying yesterdays demonstrations were in support of Hamas. They were not. He conflated the two. This is not hard to do unless you take the time to actually find out.

If you wish to see a country of Palestine and cannot criticise the murderous behaviour of Hamas then you have no argument.

Israel's response

 Israel needs to be very careful of how they react to Hamas's act of evil.

You do not engage in acts of evil merely because they did. Israel needs to be seen to be engaging in bringing those on Hamas responsible for the vile murders they committed to justice. If they kill ordinary Palestinians simply because they are Palestinians they will lose most of the sympathy they have garnered thus far. It will also mean no political solution. No political solution means no solution at all.

 Israel cannot let themselves simply come down to the level of hamas so there isl ittle difference between them. Perhaps they should cogitate on how important jewish terrorist groups were in forming the State of Israel!

If Gaza loses all water and electricity it means living in Gaza will become inhabitable!

This has  implications for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Once Ukraine gains proper weapons of combat and IF Israel goes over the top and few Western nations disapprove then Ukraine will think they will do to Russia what Russia has done to them. This would mean there is little difference betwen to the two nations. This is what revenge usually means. 

The Western world should say Israel is a country that will always exist. It is a democracy at present although the present government wants to change that somewhat. A Western country is a civilised country who do not kill civilians. As long as Israel stays with that we can support them  morally and otherwise.

The attack by Hamas has undoubtedly three by-products so to speak.

1. the link with the Yom Kippur war where then too Israel was vastly over-rated and a major intelligence failure. People also forget the rise in oil prices by OPEC was related to the USA giving Israel intelligence  garnered from satellites that gave them victory
2. It stops any recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia.
3. It believes Israel will over-react and this garner support from many countries. Please note this comes from innocent Palestinians being killed. this shows how much Hamas care about their countrymen and women.

As I implied yesterday I know the solution to the problem but have no idea of how to get there.

I should add two further points.

• It matters not whether you believe Israel should have been created. In my view any time you get a jewish, islamic or any other state people who are not of that religion or ethnicity are de facto second class citizens and we can see that around the world. Israel was created and is a country. It will not be uncreated. It cannot be threatened as it has over 200 nukes so if you do not like Israel tough!
• I am somewhat bemused when some Jews or so-called evangelicals say God gave that land to the Jews. It takes little reading of either the Hebrew bible or the Bible to find out most Jews (and Israelites before them) were not believers. Only a remnant were. It is one of the reasons why Babylon was allowed to destroy Jerusalem. Modern day Jews are not believers. They do not even believe in original sin. They have no entry in Heaven as they do not recognise Jesus.