Not Trampis: June 2022

you might think I am criticising them over roe V wade. you are wrong. The only problem here is the various justices lying to congress on that very decision.

No I am up in arms about THIS. It is a disgrace. Add to that decisions on gun control, voting rights and even Miranda rights in future and do the so called conservative judges realise just how low they are held by the general public?

Of all the institutions in a democracy the highest court in the land is the most important. when people lose respect for that institution it is a vary bad thing for democracy. See Zack Beauchamp.

Sunday 26 June 2022

A wages breakout is boomer fantasy land

I am in complete agreement with Ross Gittins and to some extent Sally McManus.

Australia is at full employment and real wages are falling! In the 1970s Australia was much more unionised than it is now. It had a centralised wage bargaining system.

Few people are now in unions and are mostly employed in the public sector. If employees cannot get a real wage rise when we are at full employment and low inflation how in the hell are they going to get a real wage rise when interest rates are rising and inflation is also on the rise?

It is all much ado about nothing.

Thursday 23 June 2022

Around the Traps 27/6/22

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Ralph Sims on a-new-farming-proposal-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-involves-a-lot-of-trust-and-a-lot-of-uncertainty
Katja Ignatieva on whats-a-grid-anyway-making-sense-of-the-complex-beast-that-is-australias-electricity-network
Peter Breadon on hospital-funding-deal-sets-a-tight-deadline-for-real-reform-and-the-clocks-ticking
Ross Gittins on economic-times-are-tricky-but-theyre-far-from-dire, why-interest-rates-are-going-up-and-are-not-coming-down
renew economy on synergy-to-seek-more-than-1gw-of-battery-storage-in-plan-to-replace-coal, watch-out-for-net-zero-induced-technical-faults-they-might-be-contagious, esbs-capacity-market-proposal-could-cost-billions-more-than-the-carbon-price, renewables-relieve-price-pressure-as-aemo-brings-market-back-with-training-wheels, why-the-esbs-capacity-mechanism-will-make-australias-energy-crisis-worse,labor-tips-45m-into-australian-pursuit-of-ultra-low-cost-solar
James Nassios and James Giesieke on swapping-stamp-duty-for-land-tax-would-push-down-house-prices-but-push-up-apartment-prices-new-modelling-finds
Rabindra Nepal on should-australian-governments-nationalise-the-electricity-sector-its-not-that-simple
Anna Malos and Emi Gui on in-an-energy-crisis-every-watt-counts-so-yes-turning-off-your-dishwasher-can-make-a-difference
Institutional economics on rba-review-of-its-yield-target
James Dwyer on does-australia-need-interim-submarines-to-tide-it-over-until-nuclear-boats-arrive-a-defence-expert-explains
Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmoure on why-including-coal-in-a-new-capacity-mechanism-will-make-australias-energy-crisis-worse
John Quiggin on the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands, now-is-the-perfect-time-to-increase-coal-royalties-to-fund-australias-energy-transition
Bill Skinner et al on grape-growers-are-adapting-to-climate-shifts-early-and-their-knowledge-can-help-other-farmers
Michael Gross on 4-ways-to-understand-why-australia-is-so-cold-right-now-despite-global-warming
croaking cassandra on all-his-boasted-pomp-and-show
Kevin Bonham on senate-reform-performance-review
Hugh White on if-growing-us-china-rivalry-leads-to-the-worst-war-ever-what-should-australia-do
Johanna Bowyer on australias-energy-crisis-can-be-solved-focus-renewables-not-capacity-market-locks-high

Northern America

Menzie Chinn on miscalculating-potential-gdp
the grumpy economist on economic-freedom-in-alito-draft
Lindasay Chervinsky on mike-pences-actions-on-jan-6-were-wholly-unremarkable-until-they-saved-the-nation
noahopinion on so-how-can-we-lower-gas-prices, the-left-nimby-meltdown
Tyler Cowen on does-economic-literacy-encourage-polarization
lawyersgunmoney on the-least-subtle-con-man-in-a-party-led-by-donald-trump Thanks Brad
Zack Beauchamp on january-6-committee-hearing-georgia-poll-election-worker
Jet Heer on january-6-hearings-gop
Erin Hurley on political-courage-january-6th-investigation
Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-new-york-rifle-pistol-clarence-thomas-second-amendment-guns

Europe

Chris Bertram on some-thoughts-on-the-french-elections
Jen Kirby on ukraine-grain-wheat-russia-black-sea-odesa-food-crisis
Stefan Wolff and Anastasia Bahok on ukraine-war-fears-that-belarus-might-invade-on-russias-side-are-growing
Mathew Sussex on russias-ukraine-invasion-wont-be-over-soon-and-putin-is-counting-on-the-wests-short-attention-span
Mainly Macro on why-has-uk-real-wage-growth-been-so-low
Eric Lonergan on euro-crisis-ii
Jen Kirby on russian-kaliningrad-europe-ukraine-war-tension

Asia

Peter Hooton on pacific-labour-mobility-and-existential-threat-climate-change
Timothy McLaughlin on hong-kong-tiananmen-square-china-censorship

Wonk

Tim Harford on a-warhol-a-wild-back-story-and-the-price-of-authenticity
noahopinion on how-are-milton-friedmans-ideas-holding-up
the conversable economist on biases-from-too-few-choices-and-other-topics-in-behavioral-economics, four-stories-about-technology-and-inequality, the-crypto-trilemma
Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-does-monetary-policy-respond-to-temperature-shocks, guest-contribution-a-resilience-case-for-international-trade, advanced-country-headline-inflation-rates-may-2022
Uneasy Money on axel-leijonhufvud-and-modern-macroeconomics
Nick Gruen on universal-basic-income-notes-of-an-agnostic

General

Jamie Roberts on frankenstein-how-mary-shelleys-sci-fi-classic-offers-lessons-for-us-today-about-the-dangers-of-playing-god

Climate

and Then Theres Physics on climate-change-and-social-justice
Met office on poles-apart-latest-met-office-sea-ice-report-published
Vanessa Piretta on is-migaloo-dead-as-climate-change-transforms-the-ocean-the-iconic-white-humpback-has-been-missing-for-two-years
Skeptical Science on what would it take for the USA to meet its paris commitment
Tom Sternev on a-minute-to-midnight-reversing-environmental-tipping-points

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 22 June 2022

Should we nationalise electricty?

John Quiggin asks the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands.

I am sympathetic to this argument in theory. Privatising an essential good was madness to me and the evidence is in. It hasn't worked. electricity prices are higher than otherwise would be. It is disappointing that institutions such as the Productivity commission cannot even admit they made a mistake when they champion privatisation.

However in practice you cannot uncook an omelete. No State Government is going to spend money to buy back electricity assets.

On a related topic here John says now-is-the-perfect-time-to-increase-coal-royalties-to-fund-australias-energy-transition

Tuesday 21 June 2022

Monetary policy for dummies

Essentially the only game in town for the RBA is raising or cutting interest rates. Yes they can do other things but in reality they are minor.

Interest rates heavily affect the housing sector as it is very sensitive to interest rate changes. borrowers have less money to spend when interest rates are raised. We should also remember this affects business investment as well. Overall consumers will spend less as they realise the central bank is tightening policy.

I have to emphasis it is guesswork not science on whether a recession turns up or not. If Banks have been lax in their lending guidelines and/or the central bank is behind the curve. It is more likely a recession will occur.

In the former the housing sector takes a whack and thus reducing interest rates after this occurs does not do much. In the latter the central bank will probably raise rates quicker and more than otherwise. By the time they realise they have gone too far we are in recession.

Therefore hang on

Monday 20 June 2022

The Energy fiasco

I am not going to link any stories on this. I am guessing most people have already read to death on this subject.

The current crisis came in two parts.

1. The very large rises in coal and gas prices

2. The very large increases in breakdowns of units in coal fired power stations. This was unusual as it is expected in summer with AEMO regularly putting out alerts for blackouts because they are worried about too many units breaking down in summer. Put it another way if winter is like this what is summer going to be ?

This was exacerbated by the fact renewables only account for around 30% of output. More renewables would have meant less stress caused by the above.

It follows therefore the solution is long term ie more renewable energy. Can I add something with regard to the proposed capacity mechanism. A coal fired power station delivers base load power. It is on 24 hours a day. It is never held in reserve as it is already on. A gas fired power station can be as it can be started and closed quickly unlike coal fired power stations. Too many people confuse base load power and dispatchable power particularly the former minister!

Sunday 19 June 2022

the role of monetary policy in the green transtion

Not for everybody but I found THIS article on the above subject fascinating.

Thursday 16 June 2022

Around the Traps 20/6/22

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Youngdeck Lim et al on does-paying-for-tax-advice-save-money-only-if-youre-wealthy
Ross Gittins on maybe-left-versus-right-is-turning-into-smart-vs-notso, what-we-werent-told-before-election-taxes-to-rise-not-fall
Nick Gruen on the-case-for-greater-use-of-secret-ballots-in-parliament
renew economy on bowen-slams-morrison-and-taylor-for-hiding-extent-of-snowy-2-0-delays, slow-2050-net-zero-scenarios-not-worth-the-paper-theyre-written-on-say-economists, aemo-imposes-price-cap-on-queensland-market-amid-supply-crunch, bonkers-queensland-and-nsw-energy-supply-crunch-underlines-farce-of-broken-market, the-day-the-fossil-fuel-industry-lost-all-perspective-and-threw-away-its-social-licence, impossible-to-operate-aemo-declares-suspension-of-electricity-spot-market, aemo-warns-of-tight-electricity-supplies-in-nsw-after-seizing-control-of-market, market-failure-why-no-one-trusts-fossil-generators-to-do-the-right-thing
Peter Martin on australia-already-has-a-uk-style-windfall-profits-tax-on-gas-but-well-give-away-tens-of-billions-of-dollars-unless-we-fix-it-soon
Rebecca Pearce et al on we-want-to-be-part-of-that-movement-residents-embrace-renewable-energy-but-worry-how-their-towns-will-change
Dennis Muller on battered-by-9-years-of-coalition-government-the-abc-now-has-a-hard-road-of-repair-ahead
Greg Jericho on workers-and-their-wages-are-the-collateral-damage-of-the-war-on-inflation
Murray Goot on governments-usually-win-a-second-term-but-could-the-new-labor-government-be-an-exception
John Buchanan on this-5-2-decision-on-the-minimum-wage-could-shift-the-trajectory-for-all-workers
Joel Gilmoure and Tim Nelson on australias-national-electricity-market-was-just-suspended-heres-why-and-what-happens-next
Henry Storey on why-australia-shouldn-t-put-all-its-eggs-quad-basket
John Quiggin on now-is-the-perfect-time-to-increase-coal-royalties-to-fund-australias-energy-transition
Roger Dargaville on 5-policy-decisions-from-recent-history-that-led-to-todays-energy-crisis
Jeff Borland on an-extra-60-600-australians-found-work-in-may-heres-why-wages-arent-moving-much
Johanna Bowyer on australias-energy-crisis-can-be-solved-focus-renewables-not-capacity-market-locks-high
Tristan Edis on what-real-cause-australias-energy-crisis-and-what-should-we-do

Northern America

Kruggers on inflation-prices-stagflation thanks Brad
Michelle Jamriscko on peak-inflation-signs-are-flashing-in-chips-shipping-fertilizer thanks Brad
Ellen Ioannes on gun-control-bipartisan-framework
Menzie Chinn on inflation-in-may
noahopinion on us-pundits-please-stop-trying-concede-on-ukraine's-behalfto, progressives-should-fear-inflation-more-than-recession
The conversable economist on cahoots-in-denver-experimenting-with-alternatives-to-police, some-stock-market-benchmarks
Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-andrus-texas-death-penalty-execution-constitution
Li Zhou on january-6-committee-trump-donations
Mainly Macro on in-praise-of-bidens-fiscal-stimulus
Tyler Cowen on how-unhappy-should-we-be-about-the-current-economy
Stephen Levitsky and Lucan May on americas-coming-age-instability Thanks Brad
public notice on trump-official-election-defense-fund-january-6 Thanks Brad
Don Moynihan on why-is-american-administrative-capacity-in-decline thanks Brad
Alex Shepherd on january-6-committee-media-scoops thanks Brad
Emily Stewart on fed-interest-rate-hike-inflation-recession-stock-market-debt
James Mann on the-birchers-the-trumpers-john-birch-society
John Authers on fed-brings-clarity-to-markets-inflation-is-the-only-priority Thanks Brad
Puck on larry-summers-obama-a-fed-counterfactual Thanks Brad
Issac Chotiner on unpacking-the-draft-supreme-court-opinion-set-to-overrule-roe
The Overshoot on the-federal-reserve-brings-the-pain Thanks Brad
Eight by Seven on the-news-on-the-brink-of-the-cornfield thanks Brad

Europe

Barkes on a-deadline-passes-and-stalin-is-replaced-by-peter-the-great
Tyler Cowen on the-russian-economy-is-not-falling-apart
Chartbook on mission-command-natos-strangelove-mission Thanks Brad
Helen Lewis on brexit-boris-johnson-eu-impact

Asia

Ryosuke Hanada on how-abe-era-reshaped-japan-s-foreign-and-security-policy
Syed Haider on india-pakistan-regional-rivalries-still-rule-afghanistan

Wonk

Mohamed El-Erian on oil-market-saudi-arabia-swing-producer-role thanks Brad
Tim Harford on the-oil-slick-effect-or-why-we-systematically-overgeneralise
noahopinion on will-us-debt-cause-a-global-collapse, the-bitcoin-salvation-scenario, oxfam-serves-up-a-lot-of-dodgy-statistics, where-does-the-wealth-go-when-asset-prices-go-down
Nick Gruen on gruen-detox-democracy-through-representation-by-random-selection
Keith Thomas on the-making-of-oliver-cromwell
Gina Schouten on why-were-polarized-part-4-the-last-one-about-party-differences
the conversable economist on rotational-migration

General

Tin Fei Sim on which-flu-shot-should-i-choose-and-what-are-cell-based-and-adjuvanted-vaccines
David Owen on saudi-arabia-astroturfs-the-golf-course
Nimish Biloria on keen-to-retrofit-your-home-to-lower-its-carbon-footprint-and-save-energy-consider-these-3-things

Climate

and Then Theres Physics on the-hot-model-problem
Justin Eastwood and Anne Peters on we-know-heatwaves-kill-animals-but-new-research-shows-the-survivors-dont-get-off-scot-free
moyhu on giss-may-global-temperature-down-by-001-from-april
met office on looking-into-the-future-of-climate-modelling

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

co-operation-vs-sovereignty-in-an-unequal-world-order
noahopinion on book-review-slouching-toward-utopia

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 15 June 2022

how are the sanctions affecting russia?

Two views on how sanctions are affecting Russia or are they are? Perhaps they are looking at different things!

Mark Harrison
Tyler Cowen

Tuesday 14 June 2022

We are going to the World Cup

Well I was wrong. We made it through to the world cup courtesy of a quite lethargic Peru. They were so confident of winning they had already called a public holiday to celebrate.

I was expecting to lose two or three nil because we had a slow defence which made mistakes and had few people capable of scoring. Although we had 'some' chances we really di not look like scoring. Yes Peru hit the post but they really did not look like scoring either. They were an old team.

The Arnieroos were ready for a penalty shoot out. We had proven penalty takers whilst Reu replaced some of theirs. The changing of goalkeepers was interesting. Peru would not have though the third string GK would be in the penalty shoot out. Since it worked we can say it was a brilliant move.

Our opponents in the world cup are France, Tunisia and Denmark. Fancy playing France and Denmark in successive world cups. I really cannot see us getting a point. We have little cattle and you need cclass to score in the world cup.

Still we are there but the games will be played at a slow pace because it is hot outside!

Sunday 12 June 2022

The honours system is broke

Yet again we find people getting 'honours' for merely doing their job as Nick Gruen said moons ago. Even a dead man gets a gong!

This yet again proves the honours system is broke.

Can we just get rid of them.

Saturday 11 June 2022

Aretha

Did any female have a better voice then Aretha Franklin. This is my favourite song of hers which I thought she would do amazingly well live but unfortunately she did not. She was quite wooden in her live appearances of this great song.

The story goes she and the back up singers simply had a great time one afternoon in the studio never thinking it would be made into a record. Luckily for us it was

Thursday 9 June 2022

Around the Traps 10/6/22

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy.Oy

Northern America

Menzie Chinn on some-more-correlations-on-mass-shootings-in-the-united-states, guest-contribution-no-the-us-is-not-in-recession, the-demise-of-dollar-dominance
Christian Paz on joe-biden-interested-deficit-inflation-economy
Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-voting-rights-ritter-migliori-pennsylvania, supreme-court-egbert-boule-bivens-law-enforcement-border-patrol-immunity
Amelia Thomson-Deveaux on americans-are-unusually-lukewarm-about-a-second-biden-term
Paul Boxar on 5-ways-to-reduce-school-shootings
New Deal Democrat on may-jobs-report-a-little-softening-but-still-very-positive
noahopinion on was-the-american-rescue-plan-a-mistake, the-year-we-all-became-reactionaries
rub 75441 on armed-woman-engaging-a-shooter
Brad De Long on the-federal-reserve-did-not-drink-the-koolaid
Kaleigh Rogers on more-than-half-of-the-gop-primary-winners-so-far-believe-the-big-lie
Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-in-may

Europe

Ellen Ionnes on how-ukraines-new-weapons-different-battlefield-russia-himars-nato
Christopher Kirkland on boris-johnson-wins-no-confidence-vote-but-the-margin-will-make-him-nervous
Tim Harcourt on back-ussr-surprises-russia-ukraine-conflict
Paul Waugh on johnson is now the sick man of politics Thanks Brad
Mateo Slapeck-Sewillo on vladimir-putin-sick
stumbling and mumbling on johnsons-class-handicap
Mainly Macro on the appalling autocracy of boris johnsson continues

Asia

noahopinion on the-japan-that-abe-shinzo-made
Denghua Zhang on what-does-china-want-in-the-pacific-diplomatic-allies-and-strategic-footholds
Wu Shang-Su on proceed-caution-high-speed-rail-bangkok-and-kuala-lumpur
Peter Layton on flare-china-s-deliberate-pattern-aggression
Cherry Hitkari on pyongyang-problem-quad
Craig Keating on thailand-seeking-profit-global-food-crisis
Thu Anh on stemming-tide-piracy-southeast-asia
Shivanghi Seth on india-inconsistent-adherence-women-peace-security-agenda

Wonk

Jessica Lake on could-the-depp-v-heard-case-make-other-abuse-survivors-too-scared-to-speak-up
Vani Murali on global-food-threats-chicken-and-egg-story
Tim Harford on has-nudge-tempted-us-away-from-systemic-solutions
John Quiggin on the-three-party-system-in-france-and-australia
Chris Anstey on what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-team-transitory-still-warn-on-big-hikes Thanks Brad
slow boring on russias-war-on-the-worlds-food-supply Thanks Brad
Gina Schouten on why-were-polarized-part-3-moving-on-to-institutions
the conversable economist on war-in-ukraine-and-the-global-economy, human-capital-your-nonfinancial-wealth
the grumpy economist on the-phillips-curve
noahopinion on will-us-debt-cause-a-global-collapse

General

Jessica Lake on could-the-depp-v-heard-case-make-other-abuse-survivors-too-scared-to-speak-up
Charlotte Phelps and Christian Moro on yes-women-might-feel-the-cold-more-than-men-heres-why
Leonie Heilbronn on food-sequencing-really-can-help-your-glucose-levels-heres-what-science-says-about-eating-salad-before-carbs

Climate

Mathew England et al on a-huge-atlantic-ocean-current-is-slowing-down-if-it-collapses-la-nina-could-become-the-norm-for-australia
Skeptical Science on driving-electricity-cheaper-gas
Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-0033-from-april

Andrew Gelman ( mainly Stats)

Econometrics

Marc Bellamare on don't believe everything you read on the internet

Diane Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

predecessors-and-outsiders
Kevin Carrico on louisa-lims-outstanding-portrait-of-a-dispossessed-defiant-hong-kong-is-the-activist-journalism-we-need
Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 8 June 2022

We were lucky

Okay we beat the UAE 2-1. However we were lucky. The first half was desultory but we picked up in the second half.

In truth we simply played so we conceded no goals in the first half. Some maybe worried about the right side bit I am not. Every time the fast winger shot he had no angle which a good fullback ensures if he is beaten.

We looked dangerous in the second half when Boyle was fed the ball went down the right side and crossed the ball. We scored once and Goodwin missed a sitter. The winner was a cracker.

The defence was better but every so often opened up. It is quite slow. Hrustic can , like Rogic, be magic on the ball and then lose because of a lack of skill. Bewildering.

We need to start with a recognised striker and I think McLaren will start against Peru.

Too often and too many defenders and midfielders always pass back even when there is no pressure. This indicates a lack of confidence in both their skill and creativity.

I hope I am wrong but I think Peru will win and win easily.

Arnie is getting a bad press. He has done the same as Ange but with lot worse cattle and now has to play the 5th placed ?South American country. Last time we played Honduras and they were awful!

Tuesday 7 June 2022

The RBA gets aggressive. About time

The RBA surprised most market participants (and me who thought it would be 40 bp)) by raising the cash rate by 50 basis points.

This was an aggressive move and it was about time. The RBA has been caught out and surprised by inflation rising to levels they clearly did not expect. The move by the RBA will mean to people they mean business. however it must continue.

I have said previously I think they should go to 1.5% so interest rates are back at neutral levels and then take a breather and watch the reaction. I now think they should move to say 2-2.5% and then take a breather. Inflation reaching 6-7% is way too high.

For two takes on RBA action

Monday 6 June 2022

The States have it hard under inflation

The major expense for State governments are wages. Hence we a lot of caps on public sector wages in the State government sector. In NSW we have had a 2% cap on wage increases since The Liberals were first elected.

When inflation is low this isn't really a problem. Unions grumble but rarely do much as real wages are not falling.

However when inflation starts to rise significantly like it is now ( 5.1% rising to 6-7%) then you get problems. People do not want to have their real wages falling. However State government cannot afford to give their employees wages so they do not fall in real terms because of the impact on the budget.

Most State governments have large deficits. Even those who claim to be in surplus cannot afford to give such wage increases BUT since they have 'surpluses' it is much harder to argue how problematic wage increases would be to their respective budgets.

Thus you have angry workers who have not only been left behind in relative terms but are now are being left behind in real terms. Strikes abound yet State governments cannot offer wage increases to match the CPI because of budgetary constraints.

Sorry I have no answer to this until the RBA eventually brings inflation under control.

Sunday 5 June 2022

The Opposition front bench

The Opposition leader Peter Dutton has announced his shadow ministry.

It does show a distinct lack of talent. IF we are to believe Angus Taylor ,who was an embarrassment when he was Minister, he cannot even read an annual report. IF we do not believe him then his is a liar. That is merely highlighting the most important shadow ministry.

However we should also remember that there will be a few that will shine in Opposition. Do you remember Simon Crean after 1996. Howard changed his prized policy after Crean claimed far too many scalps.

We also need a decent Opposition to keep the government honest.

Having said all that I cannot see Dutton getting any teal seats back. Dutton will look out of place if Albo succeeds in changing parliamentary culture. Even if he fails just remember Keating was never popular only respected until 1994 and THAT budget. His shadow cabinet does look inspiring. Perhaps international events will intervene and change things in his favour alah Scullin or even Whitlam.

I should add two things both the new government have a lot more experience on how to deal with any repercussions and so does the bureaucracy.