Wednesday 22 December 2021

A bit of this, a bit of that

 I will be taking a break so no Around the Traps for a bit.

Spam

What really gets up my goat with regard to spam is not so much the useless ads for a larger penis or I can be a millionaire with crypto. No it is when  my wife buys something and puts down my e-mail address.

When I hit unsubscribe it merely goes back to the website sso the unsubscribe is a lie.

Cricket

We will wallop the poms as I said when they announced their squad. Can we acknowledge the Big L is a very very lucky batsman. He either snicks it between fieldsmen, gets dropped or simply plays and misses.

Injuries' have played havoc with the poms. an attack of wood, Archer and Stone all of whom can bowl over 150 k would show up every Aussie batsman. Archer showed that at Lords and wood showed that in Brisbane.

Politics

I am quite amazed at most of the commentariat saying Morrison is a great campaigner. This is only correct if he increases his vote in a campaign. There was a massive polling failure last election so what is the basis of the claim. Well there is no basis.


Merry Christmas everyone and let us hope 2022 is a lot better than 2021

Tuesday 21 December 2021

Dune- the novels.

Following my watching of the current Dune movie and the 1984 original ( and better movie) I have been inspired to re-read the dune set of novels.

Christmas is a good time to do this. The Dune series is  pretty good except for the God Emperor novel however that was necessary for the last two and possibly best novels of the series. The characters change and except for one novel have substance.

Frank Herbert is a wonderful writer and I am not passing over many pages. As i am writing I am on Dune Messiah.

Possibly the most questioned thing would be how are swords and weapons compatible. history tells us swords are antiques when guns and the like arrive however I am happy to have poetic license on that. 

I am a voracious reader but mainly of non-fiction. The fact that Frank Herbert got me to read his novels tells you they are good. I cannot remember how I got to know of Dune but I am glad I did.

Recommended Christmas reading.

Monday 20 December 2021

David Glasner V Larry Summers

 Larry summers is worried about inflation rising up during the medium term.

DAVID GLASNER joins a chorus against his warnings. I am with David ( and Kruggers) at present.

Thursday 16 December 2021

Around the Traps 17/12/21

 It is time yet again for Around the Traps.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy, Oy, Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk


Wednesday 15 December 2021

The 2nd Test

 We won the first test rather comfortably.

England made some strange selections and then batted on a green top.

What should we expect. firstly the woeful kookaburra ball when pink swings quite sharply and for much longer. hooray.

First Australia. It is a much weaker team. Hazelwood is out and with Cummins one of the key bowlers More so because of the pink ball. I am not convinced Starc is still a test bowler. Nor do I think Lyons will be more than a support bowler. Richardson will be useful but not a match winner. Our middle order still looks streaky.

Second England.  They will all be better for the first test They needed the gallop in Australian conditions. Broad and Anderson will play and if Anderson bowls at night he could win the test. The batsman will be better for the test however the tail is longer and Leach ( or Boss) will be cannon fodder under Australian conditions.  Stokes fitness and skill levels could be crucial. He needs to both score runs and be an able support bowler.

Australia are still favourites but given Andersson i would not be surprised if England win under day/Night conditions.

Stop the press: Cummins out because of covid. A draw looks good

Tuesday 14 December 2021

dune the movie a review

 I went and watched DUNE last night with my oldest son who just had a birthday.

Before I start I should say I regularly read the DUNE series of novels over the Christmas break as i wil again do.. They are one of the few novels I read. I am a non-fiction man.

That said I am a very disappointed man. They have changed the storyline so much.

What are the problems.

Paul Atreides is too young. He is far too young for Chani, No Emperor at all, Jessica was a beautiful sister from the Bene Gesserit is average looking, Duncan Idaho is vastly changed, Liet Kynes becomes a woman black naturally. 

There are massive changes as well. If you are a fan of the books then you will get frustrated by all this.

It is only part one and ends when Paul escapes death and finds Stilgar ( who is vastly different as well. More Stlgar from Dune Messiah.

My son who has never read the books found it hard to understand however the movie is enjoyable but fans will almost find it blasphemous in how some characters are portrayed, the change in storylines and the absence of some important characters.

I think the 1984 film better bit it appears one am one of the few that enjoyed it.

Go and see it

Monday 13 December 2021

how to increase people getting vaccines without mandates

 an interesting article coming out of Japan on getting more people to have vaccines without having top use mandates.

Sunday 12 December 2021

The proposed tax cuts are irresponsible

 I heartily concur with Ross Gittins in his article stop-kidding-2024-tax-cut-will-be-economically-irresponsible.

We do have a  large debt and there needs to be budget repair. It doesn't merely go away if you have good economic growth. Indeed budget repair can help in boosting economic growth as Keynes said way back in 1936. It is in good times when you adopt austerity.

Thursday 9 December 2021

Around the Traps 10/12/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

vox wonk

Wednesday 8 December 2021

Peter Martin's take on ALP's climate policy

 My old mate Peter Martin has an interesting  article. whos-the-unsung-architect-behind-labors-climate-plans-a-retiring-coalition-minister.

Peter is a great writer and this article highlights this. Imagine the ALP thanking Greg Hunt!!

Tuesday 7 December 2021

the Ashes start today

 the Ashes start today. Australia are clear favourites. England have far too many fast medium bowlers and not enough fast bowlers.

However India di beat us in Brisbane last year where two of their bowlers would be lucky to take wickets in shires cricket. Our batting is brittle. We rely too much on Cummin and Hazelwood ( who are over bowled) and we have a fast bowling captain. Two day nighters could enable Anderson to unleash his magic.

England's batting looks solid but their bowling looks pedestrian for Australia. 

From the Australian point of view Starc has clearly lost his inswinger. this is due to where he places his right foot when he delivers the ball. Lyon was never a threat against India. Green will need a larger role so both Hazelwood and Cummins can rest.

Can we get some decent commentators as well. Why do the poms have a monopoly on this role and why are we hopeless?  A royal commission is needed.

Monday 6 December 2021

Local government

 In NSW we had local government elections on Saturday. I voted early as I thought I would be umpiring on the Saturday at a game starting at 10 so I would have to be there at 9 which would mean leaving home at 8.30. As it was I got a game starting at 12.15!

I live in the Parramatta LGA. I only had a choice of six candidates to choose three from. One group was the ALP and the other Independents. It appears the ALP gained ground. In my ward two ALP got elected  including one young man who does not look as he has reached 30 yet.

Ryde Council is very close. The ALP gained one seat here as well. I even talked with Jeremy Laxalle the current Mayor at an early polling booth. I was impressed. He pointed out he was not an expert on every policy area and had a good understanding of what the ALP had done in Bennelong over the last few elections.

In both LGAs there were plenty of Independents who had plenty of people to help them hand out how to vote leaflets.

I am cheesed off with local councils however. Football season ended quite early and cricket season started late. This should have meant the grounds would be perfect as grass should cover all the grounds. It should also have meant perfect pitches as the groundsmen had plenty of time to prepare pitches,

What I have seen each weekend are a lot of bare patches on the grounds and pitches which spin a lot with little bounce. The Councils have simply not had the groundsmen looking after the grounds at all.

It is a disgrace not only to cricket but also to football who also should be anticipating the best grounds in history.

Sunday 5 December 2021

Modernisation and China's century of humiliation

 Over at the ever excellent Vox wonk as I call it Wolfgang Keller and Carol Shuie have written modernisation-and-china-s-century-humiliation.


It is really interesting. Have a read.

Thursday 2 December 2021

Around the Traps 3/12/21

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 1 December 2021

The Jenkins Report

 The Jenkins report into the Commonwealth Parliamentary workplace.

Some recommendations are urgently needed. That there is no Human Relations department is a disgrace. If someone is bullied, assaulted etc then has been no place to go to to make a complaint.

Is the behaviour worse these days then in days of yore?  I am told it is. I suspect one of the reasons is advisors these days come straight to the politician's office from politics at University. In my day there were people who were seconded from Treasury like a young Ken Henry I met or they came to Canberra after working elsewhere for some time. 

They were all good on any side of the fence even green!

This has changed. Implementing the recommendations would be a good start BUT it always needs reviewing.

Tuesday 30 November 2021

The case for social housing

 Brendan Coates from the esteemed Grattan Institute has an article entitled the-compelling-case-for-a-future-fund-for-social-housing.


It is well worth a read more son in these times of vastly over priced housing,.

Monday 29 November 2021

Australia's black summer of fire

 Australia suffered suffered a horror back summer of fire in 2019/29.

A number of authors have written australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it,

A very interesting read

Thursday 25 November 2021

Around the Traps 26/11/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox wonk

Wednesday 24 November 2021

The proscribing of terrorist organisations

 Yesterday the government proscribed The Base and Hizballah as terrorist organisations.

The decision on the base makes sense because they could kill australians. On the other hand no-one has stated anyone from hizballah is ever likely to kill anyone in Australia. Their total concentration is in the Middle East and fighting Israel. Thus it seems the only possible reason for this is to deny hizballah any funds from Australia.


Tuesday 23 November 2021

Kevin Bonham on voter ID

 Kevin Bonham ,a must read on polls, has an excellent article on the prosed new laws on voter ID.

A must read


Monday 22 November 2021

Three simple low cost actions that can accelerate transition to zero emissions

 David Leitch write a thought provoking article with the above title.

Although not in the first three he recommends a price on carbon. I totally agree. The reason is there is no can do capitalism. Pigou a long time ago showed up instances of where ,as in this case, there is negative externalities. The  price of carbon does not have the effect of pollution or emissions in the price. Put it in and only then do you get can do capitalism.

Sunday 21 November 2021

sound advice from Thomas Lumley

 Thomas Lumley runs a wonderful blog called statschat.

his latest article is entitled vaccinate-for-the-holidays.

Short but sweet.

Thursday 18 November 2021

Around the Traps 19/11/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,OyOy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk