Thursday 30 September 2021

Around the Traps 1/10/21

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

vox wonk

Wednesday 29 September 2021

Retirement looms

 My wife is a ( very good) high school science teacher and she reaches retirement age soon. So we were off to see a financial planner ( from Aware).

We learned a lot.  As a married couple we needed to reach a certain figure a year to be comfortable. My wife is on the old super scheme and gets a pension for life as a % of her last salary. We reached it before adding any dividends from our modest stock portfolio (much reduced from when we salary sacrificed into super) and a minimum allocated pension from my Super.

It seems it will be some time until it is safe for my wife to travel as she loves. She simply takes out a small lump sum from either super fund ( she has to have two as a teacher) to pay for it..

Thus at some stage over the next two years neither my wife nor I will be working.

Tuesday 28 September 2021

A few different articles on climate change

 a pot pouri of articles on climate change

Monday 27 September 2021

Poll roundup

 I have been a bit slow on this but Kevin Bonham's thoughts are as important as ever.

He wonders why the resolve poll is diverging. As usual plenty of issues to think about.

Sunday 26 September 2021

what will the 4 states do?

 After all the hoo ha of the doherty plan which some people clearly either have not read or do not understand we should come to the 4 States who have been successful in combatting the delta variant. They actually have plenty of freedom at present. At some stage not clearly defined when the 80% target of people who have had the two doses of vaccine is achieved they have to open up.

At present NSW, (who is clearly responsible for the delta variant spreading hither and thither through their own ion competence), Victoria and Canberra all want to open up at the 80% level. They have everything to gain.

HOWEVER if you live in a state that is free from the delta variant opening up your state means people in your state acquiring the delta variant. Do any of these states want the repercussion frown that. The deaths, the amount of people getting long covid and the intense pressure on the hospital system the states have the responsibility for. ( Those very cynical amongst you might think ALP state governments could easily shift the blame to the federal government for this just when a federal election is due! )

Now all those 'conservative' commentators have all got stuck into Qld and WA but have completely ignored SA and Tasmania ( whose policies on covid are very similar to the former two states.. I for one will be very interested in those two governments plan to open up. SA has an election looming so that is the one to watch.)

Very interesting

Thursday 23 September 2021

Around the Traps 24/9/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Wednesday 22 September 2021

China and evergrande

 Here are a few people writing on this that are interesting


I don't think this a Lehmann bros moment. I very much doubt if financial contagion would occur as exposure to Evergrande is limited.
I expect Evergrande will get through this through a variety of measures as they are in essence too big to fail. If 'allowed' to fail it would have devastating affects on the Chinese economy and thus the current leadersip..

However the current chinese leadership have proved quite adroit in engaging in failure when success looked all but inevitable.  'wolf warrior leadership anyone. Is what is occurring now simply a limited variation of a modern great leap forward or cultural revolution? We live in interesting times

Tuesday 21 September 2021

the Victorian debacle

 I can't say I have much to add to what Steve from Brisbane has said on this.

I am somewhat bemused to see and hear a lot of law and order advocates apologise for the violence in these demonstrations. Those in the building industry in Melbourne had been in a privileged position. That they have allowed anti-vaxxers and rabid nazi sympathisers to dominate the demonstration is disgraceful.

It does show we do have our share of not only idiots but very selfish idiots in Australia.

Monday 20 September 2021

renewables create new records

 Renew Economy reports on the records created by renewable energy.

This is good . A record on the weekend and then broken on the monday when business is back.

However let us be realistic. It will be better if records are broken once lockdowns are over and the economy is back to normal.

Sunday 19 September 2021

AUKUS

 Well a new 'alliance'.

Here are some comments:

A few comments. ANZUS meant we were always close to the USA. We went to Iraq because of it. It has not made us closer it has merely made it explicit.
There is more to this than nuclear subs.
nuclear cubs go further than diesel powered ones but cannot be silent like them.
The nuclear reactors are with the sub for its lifetime. When the sub is no longer in use it is discarded and not with us.
 
big problem is we have not signed a contract thus we do not know the cost and we also do not how much we pay the French Also our communication of the deal was less than ideal.
See HERE for example

Thursday 16 September 2021

Around the Traps 17/9/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk


Wednesday 15 September 2021

The OECD and the RBA

 The OECD has released a report ( actually you cannot read it until the 24th ( grrr). HERE is a report on the report. I do like most of what they allegedly say however

Amongst other things they say the RBA should have a review. I do agree with that.

Here is Ricardian Ambivalence's  thoughts on Lowe's latest speech.

The RBA like many Central Bank has a problem of raising inflation. It has failed miserably during Lowe's term as governor. I suspect measures needed are not what the RBA can do as discussed yesterday.

A review of institutions are regularly needed. There should be one of the RBA.

Tuesday 14 September 2021

Christian Porter is a disgrace

 Yesterday we had the extraordinary explanation from Christian Porter that some ( most??) of the legal fees incurred when he sued the ABC was paid by a trust and he claims he does not know the people involved. See HERE for an explanation.

Porter is thus owing a debt to people who helped him out of a large financial hole. Malcolm Turnbull completes the rest for us.

Porter sued the ABC believing the antiquated libel law which HE did not reform would enable a large financial compensation. However once he learned of their defence he folded  like a pack of cards. Much worse he ensured with the court's help no-one would learn of their defence. We can only assume it was devastating.

He is now in debt to unknown  people ( does anyone really believe he not know who they are) for a very poor decision. The question is of course whether any of these people will ever call in their debt ??

The ABC should be reviewing which people of the law they pay. clearly they paid out money they did not need to given its defence.

Hugh Riminton joins in 

Monday 13 September 2021

how to boost inflation

 Inflation has undershot its targets for most Central banks. what can we do to boost inflation back to more appropriate levels.

Use Wage setting as two academics recomend for the EU. It has implications for us in OZ as most would realise.

Sunday 12 September 2021

A few comments on Australian Polity

 Let us first go to NSW. aunty gladys will not have any more daily press conferences now  because she has work to do. Um press conferences is part of your job. We the public need to know what is happening as the peak arrives. Particularly in relation to hospitals and where they are capable of meeting the demand. suspicions arose because auntie gladys does not like questions asked about her former lover and ICAC inquiries. Chris Minns is looking sooo   lucky every day.

Still in NSW the ALP are parachuting Kristina Keneally into the safe ALP seat of Fowler. Apparently a young female lawyer ( you got me there is no such thing as lawyers in OZ) of Vietnamese heritage looked good for pre-selection. I have never seen any desirable qualities in Keneally. She was soso as Premier and was a poor candidate in the Bennelong by-election. As an example she lived only a short distance from the electorate yet got attacked by the Liberals for not being a local when John Alexander was living in the Eastern Suburbs. If she is such a great candidate why is the pre-selection ballot being suspended? Indeed if she is such a red hot candidate why is she not no 1 on the Senate ticket?

Still in NSW Joel Fitzgibbon is retiring. good riddance I say. He is a luddite on climate policy and we should NEVER forget the ALP did everything he asked in the Upper Hunter by-election and the ALP suffered a swing against them. McKay got the blame and Fitzgibbon continued to complain without ever manning up to his own massive errors.

We got further confirmation of government complacency on the vaccines. Tudge said all the e-mails told of another story but said the government would not release them hence no-one believed him at all.

Thursday 9 September 2021

Around the Traps 10/9/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 8 September 2021

what about other avoidable deaths

 John Quiggin has written about this today.  highly recommended. Remember all those people dying frorm the flu. We fixed that. We can fix other ways as well!

Tuesday 7 September 2021

Lockdown proving a problem now at home

To much serious stuff so let be be light hearted today.

 I have said previously I do like lockdowns however in my household it is proving a problem.

My wife is a school teacher indeed a very good one and is teaching via zoom as well as having meetings as well. My youngest son works in the city but has to work from home. He has regular monday meetings ( doesn't everyone) and has to use the phone a lot.

My oldest son works in the social welfare field and when he has to work at home ( not a lot) he has to use the phone quite a bit as well.

We have a virtual home office downstairs which my youngest son claims most of the time. My wife therefore has to do most of her teaching upstairs. 

This means we have to know when people have meetings and phone calls. Sometimes these times clash. This is usually resolved by the person having a short call going outside but it is becoming a problem.

On the positive side costs are well down and we all have dinner at a very reasonable time.

Sunday 5 September 2021

The National plan examined plus a bit more

 How many times have you heard about the national plan? Do you understand the assumptions behind it?

I am here to help.


The Doherty report assumes vaccinations and test trace isolate and quarantine play an equal role in ' living with the virus.' However the TTIQ takes no account of the new delta variant. Quite clearly Delta moves so fast TTIQ is very problematic. Just look at NSW in a lockdown Moreover there will be a lot of pressure on hospitals as we also know in NSW ( in a lockdown).. It is easy to convert wards into ICU wards BUT ICU wards need one nurse per patient and the nurses are highly trained and this takes a lot of time to take effect.
I am unsure some politicians have actually read through the 'national plan'. This is not a criticism of the model because all models are hostage to the assumptions made


Also related is this on Vox wonk mask-mandates-save-lives


Saturday 4 September 2021

the rolling bones live

 The rolling bones were a vastly over rated group ( the Beatles more so.) The Yardbirds, the Jeff Becck group, the Who were much better groups to name but three however there are times when they can rock and this is one.

They are going to tour again and some are 80. Embarrassing. Even here most of them are anything but chick magnets. Okay they re ugly as my wife attests.




Thursday 2 September 2021

Around the Traps 3/9/21

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Ausssie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk