Saturday 30 April 2022

Rod Stewart

 Here is Rod Stewart doing a great job of john Newton's song amazing grace


and now with Jeff Beck doing that great old Negro spiritual people get ready



Thursday 28 April 2022

Around the Traps 29/4/22

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 27 April 2022

The RBA has been far too slow

 The CPI was released yesrday and it was a shocker. Annual inflation is now 5.1% and might reach 6-7% in the quarters to come.

Forget about wages. the RBA should have had cash rates at 1.5% NOW .The CBA estimates 1.5% is the neutral rate. One has to ask why are interest rates so stimulatory when we are essentially at full employment. The RBA has been asleep at the wheel and way to complacent. Lowe has been way to dovish.

Rates need to be raised by AT LEAST 0.4% next tuesday. Anything less means the RBA has lost credibility.

All I'm advocating is getting cash back to normal. If wages take off of which I am sceptical about then interest rates can become contractionary.

Tuesday 26 April 2022

I have been bingeing

 My youngest son signed up for a free trial of binge. It had Blue Bloods on it.

It only went to season 9 unfortunately.

I again repeat it is a great series surprisingly so given it is a yank show. It was very enjoyable to binge on watching every season up to season 9.

The show has a few problems however.

  • No-one but no-one drinks red wine when eating chicken.
  • The ages just do not gel. Erin goes from 36 to 40 in one season. Frank would have to be in his 70s given the agers of his children!
  • Frank who is the PC goes through too many Mayors,
  • There is no chemistry in any relationship we observe.
  • Jaime, the youngest son, has a harvard law degree, but just wants to be a beat cop. Huh. Any person who goes to Harvard has ambition
however even given this and there is more it is still highly enjoyable to watch.

Monday 25 April 2022

A few thoughts on the election

 Okay, we have a longish election campaign. My guess people are only now just turning their attention top it. See latest polls from the EXCELLENT Mark the Ballot.

Let us start with some basics. First of all seat polls are crap as Kevin Bonham has shown. Secondly internal party polls are usually lies. We are never told about the size of the survey or the margin of error. Parties very rarely poll only one seat because of the expense. They will survey perhaps 4 marginal seats with 500 people in each seat. Internal party polls should not contradict public polls. If they do treat them with great caution.

As I see it there is a lot of pressure on Scott Morrison this week. Just remember the Liberal party and its apologists are saying he is a great campaigner ( without ever giving us any evidence or even suggesting what metrics should be used to measure this.) A great campaigner would surely increase his party's vote if he is campaigning in essence alone.

The government was campaigning on two issues. the econmy and national security. The latter has never resonated with the public and given the Solomon Islands fiasco could well become a negative. Only Sky after Dark will not pour scorn on Dutton's latest idiotic statements regarding war. 

When one compares the frontbenches then the ALP has the upper hand.

If you trust the polling organisations have learnt from their massive polling failure of the last election then it appears this election is the ALP's to lose.


Whoopsy I should have added a long campaign is rarely a good strategy. The punters never like them

Sunday 24 April 2022

Commemorating war

 Ned Dobos writes a very interesting article for the Lowy Institute which is entitled does-commemorating-war-really-promote-peace.

It is a must read on Anzac day.

Thursday 21 April 2022

Around the Traps 22/4/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 20 April 2022

Book Reviews: Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson

 Over Easter I read Lion in the White House. A biography of Teddy Roosevelt and Wilson, a biography of Woodrow Wilson.

If you like US politics then these are two of the most intelligent and interesting Presidents. They were also very similar yet disliked each other. Both claimed to be Christian with Wilson definitely having strong credentials here. He knew slavery was bad but wanted it to change through evolution. A radical concept for a southerner but still a massive rationalisation for a politician. 

There were a lot of race riots where negroes died by the hundreds under both men. Also of interest was the driving od electric cars!

The first book is short but Wilson is long.

Both were very fortunate to be President but led very reforming presidencies.

I cannot do justice to either book but simply say read both of them then compare and contrast.

Tuesday 19 April 2022

Blayney

 I went to Blayney for Easter. My wife's mother still lives there and she wanted to see all her grandchildren which she did.

The town is over 3,000 and rather prosperous. housing is tight with miners ( of the gold mines) and people of sydney buying new houses as quick as they get on the market.

The town now has NO banks and only one ATM so the post office does a roaring business. It still has three pubs and motels. It has a rather large IGA.

It also feels warmer than say teen years ago.

My late father in law was one of three doctors who made good money. There is only one doctor now.

All very interesting

Monday 18 April 2022

Thursday 14 April 2022

Around the Traps 15/4/22 Easter Edition

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 13 April 2022

AEMO confident there will be enough electricty after Eraring with a caveat

 AEMO is now confident there will be no electricity shortages when Eraring closes.

HOWEVER there is a strong caveat. AEMO points  out, the wind and solar farms have to be not just built, they have to be connected with transmission and supported by storage. Transmission is becoming increasingly important to transport power from one region to another.

Tuesday 12 April 2022

Culture Wars Yank style

 David Appell has a small article on how Democrat and Republican governors handled the pandemic. A lot of lives were killed.

Monday 11 April 2022

The proposed tax cuts are wildly irresponsible

 Ross Gittins has a very nice article on this.

Just a few things. how can anyone be thinking of tax cuts when we need to repair the budget. Quite the opposite in fact.

Merely growing the economy does NOT reduce the structural deficit.

Sunday 10 April 2022

The Election is called.

 Finally Scott Morrison went to the Governor General and called an election.

Here are some topical articles.

A few thoughts from me.
Do not pay any attention to seat polls. As Kevin Bonham has constantly shown they are crap.
I do wish people would stop saying Morrison is a great campaigner. There was a  massive polling failure last time so we do not know whether he increased or decreased the liberal's vote.
In my local seat Jerome Laxlale is a very good local candidate. Not a cabinet minister but knows his community very well.

Thursday 7 April 2022

Around the Traps 8/4/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)


Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

  • nuttin

Vox Wonk


Wednesday 6 April 2022

Poll Roundup

The ever excellent Kevin Bonham has his latest poll roundup.

always essential reading.


Tuesday 5 April 2022

Who to pre-select?

 Both major parties have their troubles when they do not allow local members to vote for 'their' candidate.

the ALP have parachuted Kristina Keneally and now Andrew Charlton in relatively safe seats without allowing local members a say. IMHO Keneally is vastly over-rated. She was not rated by local members in the Bennelong by-election. Andrew Charlton on the other hand is a huge talent. An economic advisor to Rudd when he was PM then went into the private sector where he was very successful. (( He is now a multi-millionaire and in charge of Accenture). His great problem like that of the late Doc Evatt is how can he fully represent local constituents. 

The Liberal party is going to have a number of electorates where the candidate is selected by only a few men.

It means you are betting big time local members of your party will accept your decision and be at the polling booths to hand out how to vote leaflets etc and not stay home.

It seems to me parachuting people  is a seat by seat question. In the ALP problems it would be Fowler no Parramatta maybe.

Parties too many times want the 'wonder' candidates rather than the hardworking local person. In my electorate of Bennolong the ALP have selected Jerome Laxalle whom I have met and am impressed with. however he will only be the hardworking local candidate and you know what. That is fine by me. He might even win!

Monday 4 April 2022

The Morrison matter

 There is a bit of a brouhaha over Morrison's pre-selection in 2007 when the then rugby loving person from the Eastern suburbs was parachuted into the seat of Cook.

He originally did not win the pre-selection. Rumours about the winning candidate  were that he could not win because he was lebanese and that he was a muslim amongst other things. In fact he was a maronite christian.

We know this occurred as quite a few people have verified it. A number have said they were spread by Morrison. He has denied this. As he was the only beneficiary if it did not come from Morrison then it certainly came from someone in his 'camp'

The problem for Morrison is that is merely adds more weight to the lead in saddlebags he is carrying about his character. Not good to have in the week he has to call an election.

Someone really does not like Morrison at all. All this is happening because people perceive Morrison is in a weak space politically which is being exacerbated by his poor pollical judgement. 

It is no coincidence this did not occur last election 

Sunday 3 April 2022

The budget deficit is the problem

 Ross Gittins has a column complaining about continuing budget deficits. He is correct.

Now is the time to reduce the structural deficit significantly as we have gotten to full employment. A cyclical improvement does not obviate from reducing a structural deficit otherwise if we slow down for whatever reason the deficit will still be there.