fiscal policy here

 Can somebody help me here.

ECON101 tells you Spending and TAXATION are important to fiscal policy. It is allied to the Structural Deficit ( or cyclical adjusted budget deficit). It is the change in the structural deficit that influences economic activity.

Why are people all talking about spending and ignoring taxation. When you do you find both the overall and the structural deficit are less than 1% and falling albeit slowly ( too slowly).

Now compare that to the USA where both are over 5%. Why is not inflation ( and therefore interest rates) going through the roof there?

One reason could be that our speed limit is smaller however it would only explain it a little.

Now I am not saying fiscal policy is right. At worst the budget should be balanced. What I am saying is that it appears everyone appears to have forgotten about taxation. If they did then the spending probleem is plainly exagerated.

The socceroos are improving but there is still work to be done

 Australia played Brazil in two friendlies and overall we went pretty well.

The first match was played on a very poor pitch at Townsville and we should have won. The second was played on a good pitch in Brisbane.

What did we learn?

Beach is a very good keeper in the australian tradition.

Our central three are very good. With Bos still injured we lack a decent left back. Our right back simply lacks class and gives away too many free-kicks, a sure sign he is playing above his ability. The replacements are average.

Our midfield lacks creativity. Why Poppa doesn't pick Robertson is beyond me. Metcalf has a great shot on him but is poor at corners. Okan was unimpressive but I would be willing to give him a go. McGree look good but had too little time.

Irankunda is a breath of fresh air and is a great dead ball specialist but he does give away silly free-kicks   ( and penalties.) I am not convinced of Yengi and hope Toure is fit for the Asian cup. It is significant that when Irankunda leaves the field we lose most of our attack. He also has no-one to pass him the ball into space. Volpato absence was felt.

Still given all of this we should make the final of the Asian cup particularly if our injured players come back and might even win it.

If we do not get to the final then we have failed!!

Interest rates

 I am not writing about interest rates tomorrow but my beloved socceroos games agin Brazil.

The RBA will raise interest rates today by 25 points. It has too because it has, like many of us, underestimated the inflationary pressures in the economy.

Now I do believe the budget should at least be in balance however it is only 1% of GDP. People who keep on talking about spending ignore taxation. They also ignore the structural deficit is falling not rising.

If this was the key to inflation rising then the USA should have massive inflation given their deficit is over 5% and their structural deficit is much larger and rising!

I suspect the economy will slow and thus inflation will drop next year at worst.

I still believe it needed 'Bernie Fraser' to replace Phillip Lowe. The RBA got it badly wrong on how to combat covid yet Chalmers did not introduce any new 'thinking'

A couple of things

 Donald Trump

I cannot believe what i am reading. Trump was a convicted criminal when he was elected President. He was found guilty of fraud, the company he heads was found guilty of fraud, he was found guilty of sexual assault and he 'changed' his book keeping so people could not find out he paid a porn actress. In other words both Judges and juries found trump to be a liar.

and some people are shocked that he has a lawless administration.

Oh and 2024 was the only time Trump was a winner in overall terms and has never shown he actually has the political touch either.

Polls in america

There is some very wierd polling going on. Will texas get a democrat governor. some polls say yes others say not a chance. Plus there are states like Kansas, Florida, South Carolina that appear close. It is fantastic for political junkies like me.

Interest rates.

I do hope someone who believes government spending is causing inflation ( and conveniently forget about taxation) tell us why the USA do not have way higher interest rates given that Our deficit is around 1% of GDP and theirs is over 5%!

AI

I have yet to see why and how AI will drive much higher productivity rates. The other thing AI subverted a number of sites right around the world. Imagine the damage that could be done by bad actors.

and why isn't anyone talking about how AI companies are helping push up interest rates and how data centres are pushing up inflation?

Around the Traps 25/9/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Long on bill-kelty-one-nations-giant-tax-avoidance-scheme Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on thirty-years-of-australian-monetary-policy-in-six-charts, the-era-of-cheap-money-is-over
• Peter McDonald on the-governments-migration-policy-prioritises-knee-jerk-politics-over-careful-planning
• Don Gunasekeara on will-el-nino-send-food-prices-soaring-this-summer
• Alicia Herrero on the-trade-climate-has-already-changed-canberra-is-still-adjusting-too-slowly
• Alan Gamlan on canada-is-managing-migration-without-taking-a-sledgehammer-approach-heres-how-australia-can-too
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on australia-in-the-2060s-an-optimistic-outlook-dominates-budget-forecasts-in-the-intergenerational-report 
• Vincent Hurley on australia-is-responding-to-domestic-violence-after-the-event-not-preventing-it-from-happening
• Nick Garvin and Elyse Dwyer on will-investors-be-better-or-worse-off-under-new-housing-tax-changes-see-what-18-years-of-data-reveals
• Greg Jericho on single-couple-or-family-not-all-australian-middle-income-earners-are-equal
• Inga Lass on many-australians-are-overqualified-for-their-jobs-which-comes-at-a-price-new-data-shows
• Michelle Grattan on danielle-woods-blunt-message-to-politicians-dont-undermine-public-trust-by-attacking-institutions
• James Curran on the-trouble-with-albanese-calling-china-a-hegemon
• Meena Jha on what-does-the-openai-medicare-hack-reveal-about-australias-cyber-security

OZ Climate

• renewables-hit-more-than-80-pct-of-grid-demand-for-first-time-despite-heavy-throttling-of-wind-and-solar
  
• we-dont-simply-see-turbines-graziers-say-hosting-wind-farms-eases-pressure-on-land-and-helps-prepare-for-drought
  
• explainer-who-will-set-australias-rules-for-home-energy-devices-such-as-solar-plug-in-batteries-and-evs
  
• nsw-takes-lead-on-mandatory-solar-panel-recycling-as-ministers-call-for-urgent-action-on-rising-tide-of-waste 
  
• like-spinning-42-plates-in-the-air-at-the-same-time-how-this-impossible-project-broke-australias-wind-drought
  
• huge-landowner-led-wind-project-seeks-green-tick-despite-looming-threat-to-transmission-link
  
• hold-the-front-page-cost-of-clean-energy-transition-just-shrank-by-100-billion 
  
• a-turning-point-for-grid-forming-inverters-in-australias-grid-transition-plan
  
• why-australias-energy-transition-needs-quantum-in-the-mix
  
• coalitions-pursuit-of-agent-orange-climate-policies-will-deliver-an-investment-apocalypse-soon-enough
  
• Adam Morton on the-coalition-says-it-wants-cheaper-power-not-ideology-but-its-evidence-free-plan-is-ideology

Northern America

• institutional economics on geoeconomics-and-the-end-of-the-american-age
• Ephrat Lini on kenneth-feinberg-sept-11-compensation Thanks Nick
• Andrew Gelman on living-on-the-edge-aggressive-mediocrity-at-the-summit-of-americas-intellectual-culture Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on economic-size-and-economic-power, why-does-everyone-hate-trumps-tariffs, of-donald-and-diesel, will-crypto-crash-the-blue-wave, its-underwear-on-the-outside-time, donald-the-deadbeat-does-diesel
• Lisa Rubin on if-trump-and-others-violate-a-courts-order-on-the-kennedy-center-would-there-be-any-real-consequences 
• noahpinion on how-we-can-beat-china
• Brad De Long on warsh-triangulating-not-confused, real-price-diesel-oil-shocks-republican-wars
• Zack Beauchamp on settler-terrorism-west-bank-mike-huckabee 
• Tom Nicholls on trumps-arch-arsenal
• the conversable economist on us-manufacturing-jobs-the-long-transition , a-us-federal-budget-chartbook
• Harry Litman on the-doj-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-united-nations-speech
• Paul Waldman on susan-collins-fbi-investigation-trump
• Mathew Ricketson on trump-has-banned-more-media-and-started-his-own-tv-channel-in-the-process-he-risks-further-eroding-american-democracy
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-impeachment-massie-gop
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-xi-china-summit

Europe

• Alasdair McCallum and Pete Lentini on russias-parliamentary-elections-will-not-be-a-referendum-on-the-ukraine-war-or-anything-really
• Thomas Wright on europe-afd-far-right
• Tyler Cowen on uk-productivity-higher-than-we-had-thought
• Shannon Brincat and Juan Caceres on trump-declares-victory-in-greenland-but-the-deal-exposes-a-deeper-crisis-of-trust
• Mark Pierce on pyrrhus-petraeus-putin-and-the-perils-of-ending-a-war
• mainly macro on how-should-government-meet-its-golden-rule-when-debt-interest-increases
• Amy McCauliffe on russia-ukraine-war-is-accelerating-the-dangerous-race-toward-fully-autonomous-drones

Asia

• Andrew Orchard on child-nisa-japan-s-attempt-to-redirect-asia-s-generational-wealth
• Graeme Wood on israel-secular-religious-divide
• Rodger Shanahan on israel-may-soon-learn-occupation-and-devastation-are-no-guarantee-of-security
• Richard Brody on naza-puts-israel-face-to-face-with-the-war-in-gaza

Wonk

• Melanie Mitchell on misleading-metaphors-and-real-risks Thanks Nick
• Raymond Geuess on the-carapace-cracks Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-update
• Tim Harford on why-the-story-of-the-vegetable-lamb-was-believed
• Brad De Long on crosspost-nick-gruen-hobbes-spin-bullshit-public-reason, needed-better-metaphors-for-ai-than-machine-god
• Stan Karanasios on calls-for-global-regulation-of-ai-are-growing-what-exactly-could-it-look-like 
• Toby Walsh on how-would-ai-actually-kill-all-humans-here-are-the-top-5-scenarios
• Lurion De Mello on as-renewed-chaos-grips-the-oil-market-one-country-is-keeping-global-prices-down-by-reducing-demand
• Daniel Flitton on p4m-a-new-club-for-middle-powers-and-the-same-old-habits
• Dimples Lyong on hostile-influence-peddling-slopaganda-style
• noahpinion on the-problems-with-utilitarianism
• Erika Feller on the-un-is-facing-a-crisis-of-trust-and-possible-bankruptcy-its-new-leader-will-have-an-enormous-challenge
• Chris Bertram on into-the-darkness
• Nic Bisley on the-other-summit-season-brics-and-the-sco-have-spotted-a-gap
• slow boring on the-ai-apocalypse-canon-and-why-it-matters

General

• David O'Hara on libraries Thanks Nick
• get down and shruti on psalm-happy-birthday-coltrane Thanks Tyler

Climate

• moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0136-from-july
• the conversable economist on energy-and-carbon-emissions-some-global-ground-truths
• ocean acidification on ocean-acidification-drives-grazer-niche-convergence-and-trophic-homogenization-in-benthic-communities
• skeptical science on rapid-himalaya-warming-geohazard-cascades
• David Cappell on arctic-sea-ice-extent-only-10th-lowest
• Luwei Yang and Callum Shakespeare on earths-tides-are-shaped-by-more-than-the-moon-and-theyre-changing-as-the-planet-warms
• Hannah Kessenich et al on septembers-ozone-hole-was-the-biggest-in-20-years-the-warning-signs-appeared-months-ago

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats )

• meritocracy-to-morrow-and-meritocracy-yesterday-but-never-meritocracy-to-day 
  
• the-immigration-and-nationality-act-of-1952
  
• how-did-it-go-this-prediction-from-ten-years-ago-about-chinese-fertility-in-2026
  
• do-high-school-students-have-to-work-harder-nowadays 
  
• phonics-is-a-fad-but-its-also-good-so-we-should-do-it-anyway-even-though-it-will-probably-disappoint-people
  
• survey-statistics-fat-bear-week-2026
  
• heres-a-causal-inference-problem-where-did-the-estimate-of-64-million-come-from-in-blake-lively-says-she-suffered-64-million-financial-fallout-from-justin-baldoni-conflict 
  
• junk-polls-and-junk-survey-research-they-go-together-so-well
  
• they were trying to convince everybody to have 3 kids
• Kaiser Fung on when-statistical-models-fail, whats-an-ad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Richard Parry on keeping-up-with-the-kims Thanks Nick
• Ved Shinde on reading-abbott-s-australia-from-abroad
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• new-jobs-140-years-data-why-ai-displacement-fear-overstated-and-what-worry-about 
  
• why-we-spend-so-much-time-meetings 
  
• beyond-trade-diversion-how-us-china-trade-war-reshaped-global-production 
  
• anatomy-rise-monetary-policy-and-post-covid-surge-long-term-interest-rates 
  
• building-resilience-global-financial-shocks-emerging-markets 
  
• productive-firms-can-better-spot-and-deploy-their-internal-talent 
  
• energy-transition-progress-and-challenges 
  
• how-data-centres-affect-electricity-prices-and-for-whom 
  
• quality-capital-allocation-europe
  

A couple of simple things to get rid of the deficit

 Our budget deficit is around 1% of GDP. (The US is over 5%!!)

Here are three policy action that could reduce that substantially but of course are politically difficult.

1. Get rid of the ridiculous subsidy to WA via the GST
2. impose a means test on all government programs
3. Take the NDIS back to its roots. Only those with physical disabilities get help.

Scott Morrison is responsible for the GST rot to WA. It is nothing short of a disgrace the richest State gets more money. Saul Eslake says this was the worst policy mistake of the 21st century. I agree. WA voters would not like it however

In some ways Albo has imitated John Howard. Howard brought in middle class welfare bigtime when the resources boom was taking off. Able has simply copied him without the boom. Our family should not have been subsidised in getting solar panels nor a battery.Taking away benefits always hurts the incumbent government.

We simply do not have the money to help everyone getting help via the NDIS. Only allowing those with physical disabilities would significantly reduce it cists, Again taking away benefits would entail political pain.

These are but three options but you can see the political problems involved. I am doubtful any party can do it and a revenue boost is our only hope.

Just what are Russia and China advising Iran

 Let's face it the US is stuck in its war against Iran.

Let us ignore for the moment most of the reasons for this but examine one important issue.

It is in Russia's interest for Iran to continue its battle with the USA. Hesgeth has no idea of drone warfare and thus the US is using very expensive missiles against drones. He would know what to do if he talked with Kiev!

China too would like this war to continue. With the US preoccupied with Iran and wasting ammunition and weapons there Taiwan looks very vulnerable.

Of course if the mid-terms goes badly for Trump then this is another bonus.

Thus do not expect lower petrol prices for some time.

A Blue wave is coming

 Time for me to put my gonads on the line.

I believe a blue wave is coming for a number of reasons.

Inflation is a large problem. the punters believed trump when he said he would cause a drop in prices. Instead prices rose. Initially from tariffs and then exacerbated by the war with Iran. This has also caused people to finally see Trump as the liar he is. He says prices are dropping and people know they are not.

The war in Iran is dreadfully unpopular principally because the reasons for the war were never enunciated and have led to a steep rise in petrol prices.

The increase in tariffs has lead to an increase in costs and local substitutes for imports are more expensive. It gets worse as a lot of capital equipment is hit by tariffs.

The Trumps have made a lot of money since Trump won the presidency. A lot of this has come about because of the Supreme courts decision on Presidential immunity. 

You also have a lot of billionaires involved directly or indirectly in this administration. This further highlights how distan Trump is from the ordinary voter.

Allied to this Trump is increasingly seen as out of touch. He is increasingly showing his age and his cognitive decline.

Voters also give Trump more power than they wanted originally and then change bigtime in the mid-terms to ensure there are some guardrails.This is exacerbated by Trump's blatant authoritarian instincts in his second term.

So there you have it. I would not be surprised if some states change which no-one expected.

A good time was had by all

 Last Friday was my 70th birthday ( so I am younger than john quiggin) and my wife decided we ( the family) should celebrate it at the Hunter Valley. we rented an airB&B at cessnock and it was great. In friday we had fantastic steaks from blayney and drunk it down with a 2008 toer shiraz and another wine I cannot remember from 2019.

I am thinking I really do not want to celebrate 80!

Briar ridge is the winery to visit if you go to the Hunter Valley

Around the Traps 18/9/2026 70th Birthday Edition

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on early-access-to-super Thanks Nick
• James Button on the-way-we-word  Thanks Nick
• Carol Johnson on yes-its-the-economy-stupid-but-one-nation-is-outflanking-the-government-on-messaging-too
• Marian Sawer on the-coalition-wants-to-make-flag-burning-a-crime-its-a-revival-of-a-decades-old-battle
• Johanna Lim on data-centres-have-existed-for-decades-so-why-are-they-so-controversial-now
• Mark the Graph on seeing-australian-r-star-through-different-windows
• Thomas Corben and Esther Soulard on five-years-into-aukus-what-do-we-have-to-show-for-it-weve-measured-progress-on-three-key-metrics
• Michael Varden on unsustainable-or-manageable-we-dont-yet-know-how-data-centres-will-impact-australias-environment
• Ross Gittins on feeling-the-pinch-blame-the-pay-rise-you-didn-t-get
• Ly Tran on how-would-one-nations-immigration-plan-affect-the-labour-market-and-economy
• Josh Sunman on hansons-personal-attacks-and-offensive-comments-are-straight-out-of-the-populist-playbook-but-they-come-with-risks

OZ climate

• nationals-leader-asks-lnp-planning-minister-to-call-in-already-approved-wind-project-in-his-own-electorate 
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-flexes-muscles-with-second-shock-absorber-test-and-biggest-every-charge
  
• six-steps-to-stop-the-data-centre-boom-from-sending-power-prices-through-the-roof
  
• the-financing-market-for-wind-and-solar-projects-is-nearly-dead-heres-how-to-turn-the-corner
  
• the-case-for-plug-in-solar-and-batteries-has-never-been-clearers-nd-renters-deserve-it
  
• Bill Hare on australia-must-double-down-to-meet-our-climate-targets-our-new-study-shows-how

Northern America

• institutional economics on a-users-guide-to-betting-against-scott-bessent
• Daniel Munoz on our-job-is-to-lie-cheat-and-steal-and-your-job-is-to-do-the-show Thanks Nick
• Dave Moulton on how-leftists-became-big-pharma-s-shock-troops Thanks Nick 
• Kruggers on henry-farrell-and-abe-newman-on-weaponized-interdependence, the-maga-plots-to-destroy-humanity, why-is-trump-still-boosting-ai, fear-strikes-out
• Andrew Prokop on ai-freakout-mainstream-openai-anthropic-humans
• noahpinion on get-the-middle-east-out-of-my-politics, the-anti-american-right
• angry bear on interactions-between-presidents-and-the-fed-what-happens 
• John Quiggin on the-us-is-not-a-serious-country 
• Anne Applebaum on maga-foreign-policy
• Dexter Filkins on jared-kushners-dollar-diplomacy
• Paul Rasmussen and Annette Kwan on who-checks-president-not-military
• Brad De Long on hyperscaler-debt-default-risk, hyperscaler-debt-default-risk-is-the-real-thing
• one first on what-we-learned-from-usps-v-california thanks Brad
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-mail-ballots-usps-california 
• Richard Hasen on trump-supreme-court-2026-alito-despicable-dissent
• Tyler Cowen on callum-williams-on-cybersecurity-prices
• Menzie Chinn on cbo-on-iran-war-costs
• Stewart Prest on thanks-trump-why-canada-may-become-the-european-unions-first-ever-associate-member
• Caitlin Dewey on ed-sheeran-macklemore-israel-gaza-controversy 
• Tom Bartlett on measles-deaths-pennsylvania-outbreak-kennedy
• Fintan O'Toole on devils-in-america-roy-cohn-bird-goldmark
• Liz Dye on supreme-court-mail-voting-ruling
• home and away on 9/11-at-25

Europe

• Tim Harford on nudge-or-tax-at-last-some-data
• Tyler Cowen on uk-fact-of-the-day
• Deniz Torcu on how-germanys-far-right-afd-is-courting-the-voters-it-promises-to-deport
• Alexey Muraviev on why-strengthening-ties-with-the-global-south-was-a-top-priority-for-putins-recent-diplomacy-blitz
• Lisa Martin on putin-sweats-on-russia-s-parliamentary-vote-as-ukraine-invasion-drags-on
• mainly macro on racism-and-xenophobia-are-not-'legitimate-concerns'

Asia

• Shruti Pandalai on what-the-west-should-make-of-xi-s-return-to-delhi-for-the-brics
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-do-traditional-models-or-the-dominant-currency-paradigm-explain-chinas-export-behavior 
• Adam Simpson on myanmar-s-junta-finds-a-second-patron-in-moscow
• Gabriela Bernal on seoul-s-defence-pivot-to-europe
• Jessica Genauer on the-houthis-have-further-tightened-their-grip-on-the-red-sea-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-world
• Jeet Heer on netanyahu-haaretz-report-october-7

Wonk

• Claire Collier on we-already-know-what-a-world-without-work-looks-like Thanks Nick
• Lydia Khalil on 9-11-s-shrinking-shadow
• Kruggers on trade-peace-and-war
• Andrew Cullen on big-ai-wants-to-slow-down-ai-research-is-it-a-safety-pause-or-a-strategic-retreat
• Aarti Betigeri on brics-grits-its-teeth-through-a-new-delhi-breakthrough
• Alex Tabarrok on ai-redistribution-and-the-size-of-the-pie
• Dov Waxman on what-is-zionism-the-different-meanings-of-a-contested-term
• Cassandra Steer on the-us-says-it-has-launched-space-control-weapons-it-plays-into-the-hands-of-its-enemies
• Chris Dillow on marx-on-ai

General

• Terez Rose on ten-odd-facts-handel-messiah Thanks Nick
• Olaf Meynecke on weeping-whales-why-one-humpback-whale-mother-stayed-beside-her-dead-newborn

Climate

• ocean acidification on long-term-monitoring-of-coral-reef-fish-populations-under-increasing-ocean-temperature-and-acidification-stress
• Soutik Biswas on the himalayas are melting faster and the indian economy is at risk
• Kathiana Luk et al on climate-change-is-putting-the-squeeze-on-the-worlds-grapegrowers-new-research
• 
  

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• did-2012-mark-the-discovery-of-the-final-laws-of-nature-a-discontinuity-in-human-intellectual-history-the-sharpest-that-has-occurred-since-the-beginning-of-modern-science-in-the-17th-century 
  
• whats-happening-with-the-models-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation
  
• this-is-modern-frequentist-statistics-using-fake-data-simulation-to-understand 
  
• protection-from-inappropriate-influence-is-a-hallmark-of-scientific-integrity-not-any-more
  
• survey-statistics-anova
  
• charting-the-agentic-garden-of-forking-paths
  
• its-satisfying-to-see-the-economics-profession-come-around-on-some-things-regression-discontinuity-analysis-and-so-called-risk-aversion
  
• Kaiser Fung on cosmetic-surgery

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Isaac Chotiner on anti-zionism-benjamin-moser-book-review
• Dennis Muller on bluster-and-betrayal-paul-barry-probes-how-steel-tycoon-sanjeev-gupta-hoodwinked-the-powerful
• 
  

vox wonk

• spilling-secrets-and-shrinking-chains-how-weak-laws-narrow-supply-networks 
  
• view-killing-productivity-allocative-cost-war-ukraine 
  
• price-elasticity-us-shale-oil-supply-insights-natural-experiment 
  
• some-questions-bank-england-review-should-ask 
  
• mission-possible-making-teenagers-read-newspapers 
  
• inside-automotive-supply-chain-empirical-evidence-italian-business-business-trade 
  
• workers-age-and-ai-adoption
  

Mark the Graph

 If you enjoy economics like I do theen Mark the Graph is essential reading and we have been lucky as he has been in sensational form lately.

If you haven't then read these"

• potential-speed-limit-for-economy 
  
• what-real-bond-crisis-looks-like 
  
• the-new-keynesian-synthesis-explained 
  
• the-australian-economy-right-now 
  
• r-star-as-international-price 
  
• seeing-australian-r-star-through-different-windows
  

We are very lucky to having writing so much!!

one Nation's immigration 'policy'

 One nation released their immigration policy yesterday. It was a joke.

Let us go back to what I wrote about not long ago.

It appears ( this is guesswork as we only have a press release. no costings, no press conference no nuttin).

They love back packers as they help the agricultural sector so no reduction there.

They sat they like skilled labour BUT only what they determine and no family is allowed into the country whilst they are working. No country imposes this so why would anyone wish to come to australia to work.

There are no family reunions. No surprises there.

There is a HUGE reduction in overseas students. We have no idea of what course this will involve. This would involve large decreases in revenue for Universities but there is no increase in government spending to offset this.

They do not even mention the effect their policy would have on the budget. Perhaps they do not understand!

Abul Rizvi makes the valid point of the HUGE increase in compliance costs this policy would cost. He would know as he was  previously the deputy secretary of the department!

I see a number of people have made the prediction of a recession if this policy was implemented. Joyce has said he won't take any advice from economists on this matter. I very much doubt he would understand their advice anyway and this showed one nation is going full anti-intellectualism now. It is policy made on vibes.

In essence this policy is a joke. It is not thought out at all.

Has One Nation gone too far

 I wrote previously about the disgraceful campaign one nation has exploded against Andrew Hastie.

They seem to think Ben Roberts-Smith , a person a judge found him guilty of war  crimes on the basis of probability but not beyond a reasonable doubt. He found Hastie a witness who had credibility whereas Roberts-Smith had little credibility. Thus One Nation is at odds with the judge of the case.

Also and this is very important. war crimes are against our national interest. In Afghanistan it set Afghanis against us and for the Taliban. If anyone thinks that was patriotic then they are a moron!

Now Hanson has had a go at Albos mother. She was on a disability pension and so was in social housing or housing commision as it is in NSW. If a  person on a disability pension is not entitled to be in social housing then who is. This is the best evidence that hanson is an idiot of the highest order.

Will all this mean that One Nation's vote goes downhill now? Viewing overseas then it is unlikely.

Around the Traps 11/9/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on the-flat-field-another-polls-are-wrong
• Antony Green on preference-flows-at-the-secret-harbour-by-election
• Mark the Graph on the-australian-economy-right-now, r-star-as-international-price
• Cameron Murray on upper-class-welfare-costs
• Lyndall Bryant and Amanda Bull on australia-has-a-housing-shortage-so-why-are-bathla-and-other-home-builders-collapsing
• Isabel Mecair et al on cutting-the-tobacco-excise-wont-stop-the-illegal-trade-this-is-how-other-countries-solved-the-problem
• Gabrielle Appleby on government-must-be-more-transparent-about-who-gets-community-grants-and-why
• Md Hossain and Shahbaz Mustaq on farmers-can-now-produce-more-of-their-own-energy-than-ever-but-will-they
• Beth Webster on reform-wasnt-meant-to-be-easy-heres-how-the-battles-for-medicare-and-child-support-defeated-vested-interests 
• Frank Bongiorno on paul-keatings-aukus-hostility-reflects-his-passion-for-hard-nosed-realism-over-subservience 
• Rob Nicholls on australians-may-soon-be-able-to-switch-off-social-media-algorithms-is-that-censorship
• Patrick Commins on the-rba-hoped-this-years-three-interest-rate-rises-would-tame-inflation
• Greg Jericho on why-the-horror-warnings-about-australias-collapsing-housing-market-are-absurd-and-very-much-in-bad-faith 
• Yuting Zhang on why-health-insurance-cuts-for-the-over-65s-wont-swamp-public-hospitals-after-all
• Michelle Grattan on chalmers-says-intergenerational-report-shows-super-puts-australia-head-of-the-pack-in-containing-pension-spending, its-taken-hansons-overreach-on-hastie-to-put-some-spine-into-liberals
• Therese Hopfenbeck on australias-reading-and-maths-results-are-at-an-all-time-low-but-theres-more-to-the-story
• Millie Muroi on early-access-to-super-benefits-one-group-you-re-probably-not-a-part-of-it

OZ Climate

• second-wave-of-big-batteries-will-eat-the-dinner-for-fossil-fuels-forcing-some-coal-generators-to-close
  
• climate-authoritys-misinformation-report-hit-a-nerve-at-news-corp-for-a-reason
  
• renewables-lobby-says-coal-generators-should-pay-carbon-price-to-stay-open-beyond-stated-closure-dates
  
• what-could-be-australias-biggest-battery-project-seeks-federal-and-state-planning-approvals
  
• outback-australia-has-desperate-need-for-rooftop-pv-and-batteries-to-cut-crippling-dependence-on-imported-diesel
  
• its-an-ideology-queensland-lnp-accused-of-deliberate-strategy-to-kill-large-scale-renewables 
  
• extraordinary-difference-report-finds-market-offers-consistently-beat-solar-sharer-on-bill-savings 
  
• retailers-are-taking-the-piss-why-cheaper-power-isnt-reaching-consumers
  
• anti-wind-group-sues-planning-minister-and-wind-project-owners-threatens-public-servants
  
• proposed-gas-network-revenue-reforms-leave-consumers-to-pay-for-investors-bad-bets
  
• all-200172-panels-in-place-as-one-of-australias-first-solar-battery-hybrids-hits-construction-milestone
  
• portable-battery-barrier-why-some-of-the-biggest-winners-of-solar-sharer-cant-plug-in-to-free-power
  
• Mingming Chen and Peta Ashworth on australia-needs-renewable-energy-fast-but-building-it-is-only-half-the-battle
• Donna Lu on peters-farm-is-on-flood-country-as-australias-sea-levels-rise-safe-land-is-vanishing-and-costs-are-huge
• Hamish McKenzie on did-the-government-back-down-on-its-gas-reservation-policy-no-most-changes-make-sense

Northern America

• Brad De Long on looking-askance-yet-again-at-muskworld, elon-musk-and-his-doge-and-dogecoin-adventure, the-fed-chairman-who-would-prefer-not-to-say, crosspost-dan-drezner-the-trump-administration-strategy-fail, crosspost-roy-edroso-tubby-hero-and-victim-of-9/11
• Ruth Marcus on how-donald-trump-outmaneuvers-the-supreme-court
• noahpinion on america-is-still-beating-china-in-the-AI-race
• John Quiggin on the-us-navy-loses-another-war
• Kruggers on weaponized-interdependence, neo-nazis-and-the-impotence-of-trumponomics, wheres-the-beef-coming-from, adding-injury-to-insult-canada-edition, bessent-and-the-bonds, the-long-decline-of-america
• Greg Barton on the-failure-to-stop-9-11-was-a-catastrophe-but-even-bigger-mistakes-were-made-in-its-aftermath
• Christian Paz on trump-maga-white-evangelical-christian-protestant-conservative-bonnie-kristian-politics-monster-caricature
• Ariana Aspuru and Noel King on data-center-backlash-republicans-texas-greg-abbott
• Caitlin Dewey on trump-trade-war-canada 
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-ukraine-jared-kushner-steve-witkoff, trump-iran-war-nuclear-weapons-republican-convention
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-missouri-gerrrymander-hoskins-glahn-onder
• Jeet Heer on corey-lewandowski-corruption-report,fox-news-maria-bartiromo-lawsuits
• Cameron Peters on trump-midterm-convention-dallas-trumpapalooza
• Nancy Yousef and jonathan Lemire on trump-iran-war-navy

Europe

• Deborah Cole on why-far-right-afd-state-victory-significant-german-politics-germany-explainer
• Matt Fitzpatrick on even-if-it-doesnt-form-government-the-far-right-afd-has-shaken-germanys-political-establishment-to-the-core
• Lisa Martin on europe-borrows-australia-s-asylum-script-outsourcing-rights
• mainly macro on understanding-long-term-interest-rates-over-the-austerity-period-and-beyond
• Chris Dillow on good-policies-bad-politics
• Marcus Colla on afd-the-far-right-earthquake-in-saxony-anhalt

Asia

• Amin Saikal on sanctions-and-bombs-wont-end-the-war-in-iran-trump-is-running-out-of-options-against-an-intractable-foe
• William Maley on 9-11-anniversary-democracy-was-not-doomed-to-fail-in-afghanistan-the-us-did-not-live-up-to-its-promises
• Robert Walker on thailand-s-semiconductor-plan-has-a-washington-problem
• Ruth Margalit on the-warning-benjamin-netanyahu-ignored
• David Sanderson on the-rebuilding-in-nepal-needs-to-start-now-this-is-what-worked-after-an-earthquake-a-decade-ago-and-what-to-avoid

Wonk

• institutional economics on official-reserve-asset-capital-flight
• Felix Martin on ai-agent-hack-tests-solvency-more-than-sentience Thanks Nick
• Christian Catalini et al on the economics of AI Thanks Nick
• Mark Neyer on large-language-models-are-evidence-against-the-fact-value-distinction Thanks Nick
• Michael Williams on jason-arday-and-me Thanks Nick
• Paul Graham on how universities should protect founders Thanks Nick
• Daan Silver on why-do-philosophers-think-that-they-know-everything Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on the-new-keynesian-synthesis-explained
• noahpinion on ai-keeps-stubbornly-refusing-to-take-our-jobs , liberalism-needs-a-new-philosophy-of-immigration
• Tyler Cowen on capital-gains-vs-wealth-taxes, the-allocative-cost-of-war
• Omer Bartov on where-hatred-lies-on-antisemitism-mark-mazower
• Ramon Spaaij et al on can-people-truly-walk-away-from-terrorism-inside-the-slow-work-of-rehabilitation

General

• Dave Barry on the-odyssey Thanks Nick

Climate

• skeptical science on fixing-worst-climate-plot
• Jed Rakoff on and-yet-it-warms-federal-judges-and-climate-change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• update-on-u-s-governments-push-for-gold-standard-science 
  
• ok-heres-a-statistics-problem-for-you-directly-ripped-from-the-headlines 
  
• does-anyone-have-lower-jordan3-number-than-evans-boney 
  
• hey-heres-an-r-package-for-imputing-census-data-using-iterative-proportional-fitting-on-available-margins
  
• survey-statistics-pew-research-finds-no-easy-fix-for-bogus-respondents-in-online-opt-in-polls 
  
• living-on-the-edge-aggressive-mediocrity-at-the-summit-of-americas-intellectual-culture
  
• why-i-still-like-orwells-politics-and-the-english-language-essay-even-though-he-gets-some-of-the-linguistics-wrong
  
• when-journals-are-slow-to-implement-or-enforce-policies-to-manage-sloppy-majority-ai-authored-papers-reviewers-can-and-should-push-back
  
• belief-is-not-something-you-have-rather-its-a-relationship-between-thought-and-action
  
• why-i-dont-like-highest-posterior-density-hpd-intervals
  
• freakometrics on criminal records, vibe coding and the next silent cyber risk
• Kaiser Fung on conceptual-diagrams-that-look-like-dataviz, its-not-about-the-bias-per-se

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Christopher Owen on leo-strauss-islamic-philosophy-and-the-crisis-in-modernity Thanks Nick
• David Appell on tribe-by-sebastian-junger
• stoat on book-review-evolution-of-morality

Vox Wonk

• multinational-restructuring-friendshoring-and-home-country-activity 
  
• government-support-religion-strengthened-religiosity-and-divided-america 
  
• world-agricultural-prices-and-outbreak-civil-war
  
• monetary-policys-last-mile-problem-and-what-can-be-done-about-it 
  
• automatic-stabilisers-multi-country-issuance-stablecoins
  
• tariff-confusion 
  
• immigration-innovation-and-geography-growth-lessons-age-mass-migration 
  
• plus-ca-change-ai-and-future-economic-research-galileo-back-socrates 
  
• inflexibility-and-stalled-progress-american-women-labour-market 
  
• fools-gold-how-geopolitical-risk-taking-some-shine-us-dollar
  

Andrew Hastie

 One Nation does not like Andrew Hastie.

He and a lot of others testified against Ben Roberts Smith is his failed libel suit. The Judge remember found against Roberts-Smith because of the basis of profanities ( not beyond a reasonable doubt) he committed war crimes. Just remember we were trying to get the Afghani population behind the new government and allied forces. His behaviour and similar behaviour made this impossible.

Why do one nation put their trust in a man a judge found to be a war criminal and thus a liar. It does show their profound lack of judgement and it also shows how stupid and gullible they are! It goes further they allege Hastie is a traitor. This is unbelievable. The Traitor is the person who committed war crimes in our name!

A few things

 Israel

The UK and other european nations have announced sanctions on goods and services coming from illegal israeli settlements in the west bank. Why haven't we joined them? I also see the USA has issued a warning about this. 

I am now saying if you cannot recognise a palestinian state then you surely cannot recognise an Israeli state. Just remember the Israeli government has been stealing palestinian land since the nakba!

Superannuation

I am old enough to understand why Paul Keating introduced superannuation. It was because very few people made any effort to prepare for retirement. The only people who did were public servants and some white collar workers ( like me) whose companies had superannuation and quite wealthy people. This is why the OECD, World Bank and the IMF thought this was ground breaking which every country should copy.

Both one nation and the LNP had advocated in recent days that people should have access to their super money BEFORE retirement. Typically Joyce in a train wreck interview on 7.30 could not  answer basic questions on this like how much money would the average worker lose in retirement by doing this.

A few things. most people who go for a home loan can already access super if they have made voluntary deposits. My two boys did. It is not a lot of money. They both had large deposits to assist in getting loans.Thus allowing every person access to their supper would only have a limited effect. I see some people want this access to pay for rent. Surely it would help more in retirement than right at the moment.

Lastly people's behaviour toward super before Keating acted and during covid shows people make irrational choices. Superannuation is for retirement!

USA/Canada relations

Surely the biggest lessons from the 'trade war' between Canada and the USA is that the USA can no longer be trusted on anything. If they can do this to Canada then they will do it to anything. The USA has  lost all soft power and it will take a long time to regain it.

It is unbelievable how ignorant and incompetent people in the current administration are.

Russia/Ukraine

Talking about ignorance and incompetence Fred Kaplan is on the money.

There is nothing like being a negotiator without using any experts from the State department and accepting all of Putin's propaganda because you didn't prepare!

Gerard Henderson watch

 I am both bored and busy. Yeah I know that is contradictory but there you go.

Our old mate Gerry is at it again.

He claimed that Anthony Fauci and Steve Bannon did the same thing with congress yet only Bannon went to gaol. This is complete shite. Both people were served subpoenas by congress. Fauci turned up whereas Bannon refused to comply hence his arrest, conviction and gaoling. Our Gerry has a law degree so he knows that so why the crap? Also he said Trump was the victim of lawfare or words to that effect by the Biden DOJ. Hang on he was  indicted on his January 6 conduct in lieu of the attempted insurrection and of course the stealing of documents and obstruction of justice . Both indictments were many pages in length and highly specific in their charges. So again Gerry is having a lend of us.

He claims Ian Dunt is left wing. Our Gerry has produced no proof of this however dunt has written at least three books. If he is left wing then so is the economist magazine. They share the same philosophy!

He also claims David Speers wants people to call him Speersy on Insiders. Our Gerry has provided no evidence of this and i have never heard this at all on Insiders.

He also has a juvenile habit of calling people he clearly ddoes not like comrade. gosh I wonder why he does that?

Our Gerry is well over 80 and that must be the reason why he did not get the pun by Mark Kenny about counsel culture.Don't worry he still says Kenny said cancel. Our Gerry has a credlin problem although she admitted she was wrong but went on with her wortles rant about the census

He also does not like the minefield on radio national. Perhaps his clear declining cognitive powers has something to do with that.

He also never watches sky after dark. ( yes I know there is a name change but I like the name). They have soft interviews after soft interviews. They aslo get a lot of things wrong and indulge in misinformation.

Can you bear it!

A pot pouri of things

 Tobaccy

One nation has proposed a cut in tobacco excise of 75% and the LNP wants 80%. This will reduce the market share of illegal tobacco. Sorry I do not get it. Illegal tobacco will still be lower than legal tobacco. Why would any consumer then buy more expensive tobacco when they are not doing it now. how do consumers go from being unpatriotic to patriotic? It doesn't make sense to me. Even if you do not tax tobacco at all illegal tobacco is still much cheaper!! One should also realise illegal tobacco can still reduce their prices and make money.

'woke 'education.

According to the National party leader teaching boys to respect girls' is woke education. Apart from being unable to define 'woke' when it is bad to teach boys to respect girls. Parents should be doing this so this is reinforcement.

burning the flag

The LNP want to make this a crime. Surely this is interfering with a persons freedom of speech. Flags are not monuments. If I want to burn the flag for any reason then I should be able to. I find it ironic that the very people who want to make this a crime are saying regulating social media is against free speech!

Germany

The far right almost won a state election.It is interesting that the racist attack on immigrants is a world wide phenoma.however these burkes want to support russia against ukraine amongst other wacky policies.That well-known fascist elon musk supports them. ( he is the right kind of immigrant, white)

Around the Traps 4/9/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps .

Ausssie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on who-fights-inflation, potential-speed-limit-for-economy
• Fei Gao on why-some-us-republicans-want-to-punish-australia-over-new-charges-for-tech-giants
• Mick Ryan on US-army-lost-ukraine-would-australia-do-better
• Alan Gamlen on australia-has-spent-25-years-stopping-the-boats-but-thats-not-the-same-as-controlling-migration
• Diane Krael on richard-denniss-is-calling-for-a-gas-export-tax-but-an-effective-royalty-system-would-be-a-better-option
• Danielle Thielke and Kelly Jauzems on heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-teens-and-sexual-choking
• Ross Gittins on do-our-pollies-really-want-a-more-affordable-housing-market-we-re-about-to-find-out
• Michelle Grattan on did-albaneses-language-against-one-nation-cross-a-line-or-is-pauline-hanson-just-playing-victim-politics
• Mathew Crocker on australias-government-now-has-1-trillion-in-debt-four-charts-on-how-we-got-here-and-its-cost
• Greg Jericho on australia-economy-gdp-growth-rba-expected-raise-interest-rates-again 
• John Hawkins and Peter Bartos on australias-economy-grows-by-2-1-but-peoples-living-standards-arent-keeping-pace

OZ Climate

• pressure-mounts-to-make-balcony-solar-legal-in-australia-as-it-goes-on-sale-in-the-uk 
  
• fresh-hope-as-huge-hybrid-wind-and-battery-project-reaches-financial-close-in-the-sunshine-state
  
• changing-tack-on-victorias-energy-transition-will-throw-electricity-savings-into-reverse-experts-warn
  
• rooftop-solar-record-tumbles-as-battery-rebate-drives-1-gw-of-new-installs-over-just-three-months
  
• australia-wrote-the-worlds-best-rooftop-pv-rules-we-must-do-the-same-for-plug-in-solar-and-fast
  
• state-owned-big-battery-slapped-with-1-2-million-fine-for-pushing-up-power-prices-and-profit-maximising
  
• why-do-we-bother-australia-cant-compete-with-chinas-green-transition-but-it-can-leverage-its-success
  
• one-nation-is-channeling-regional-anger-about-renewables-that-doesnt-mean-it-understands-it
  
• Alison Reeve on australia-datacentre-battle-highlights-hidden-truth-renewables-gas-electricity-solar
• Emily Simpson et al on despite-years-of-rain-blue-mountains-forests-still-havent-recovered-from-the-black-summer-megafires
• Graham Readfearn on bom-forecasts-strongest-el-nino-on-record-as-research-points-to-alarming-climate-change-influence
• Mingming Cheng and Peta Ashworth on australia-needs-renewable-energy-fast-but-building-it-is-only-half-the-battle

Northern America

• Brad De Long on heading-for-a-large-rapid-fall-in-interest-rates , the-white-collar-canaries-in-the-AI-job-loss-coalmine-are-wide-awake-feeding-and-chirping--to-themselves, the-fed-chairman-who-would-prefer-not-to-say, crosspost-justin-wolfers-did-trumps-achieve-trumps-goals
• Peter York on trump-style-dictator-autocrats-design Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on in-defence-of-drucken-slop , investment-intentions-tariffs-and-plague 
• Kruggers on oligarchy-and-the-great-evasion , from-kakistocracy-to-cheatistocracy, the-plot-to-steal-venezuelas-oil, the-hits-keep-coming. imperialist-delusions-and-the-price-of-fuel, ingots-we-no-longer-trust
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mail-voting-trump-major-questions-talwan, supreme-court-ballroom-standing-national-park-service-trump
• Menzie Chinn on seven-graphs-for-the-financial-system, the-cyclically-adjusted-budget-balance
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-generals-worried-reserves-military
• John Cassidy on how-much-is-the-iran-war-costing-americans
• Nancy Youseff et al on driscoll-hegseth-military-resignation
• Tom Nicholls on hegseth-driscoll
• Jordan Ascher on presumption-regularity-erosion-challenges-executive-action
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-chose-to-go-it-alone-against-iran-now-he-s-learning-the-value-of-friends
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-mail-voting-supreme-court-whistleblower 
• the conversable economics on us-energy-source-to-end-use, gross-and-net-us-investment
• home and away on secretary-of-war
• Harry Litman on the-other-side-of-dojs-corruption
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-troll-army, fox-news-maria-bartiromo-lawsuits

Europe

• Musa Al-Ghabbi on jason-arday-and-me Thanks Nick
• Jack Grove on i-was-reported-police-over-arday-case-i-was-just-doing-my-job Thanks Nick 
• Nicole Townsend on landmines-and-remnants-of-war-pose-a-serious-threat-and-more-needs-to-be-done-to-solve-it
• Sascha-Dominic Townsend on europe-is-under-increased-russian-attack-are-we-seeing-an-undeclared-war

Asia

• Dibyesh Anand on nepal-floods-chinas-strict-control-of-tibet-makes-it-harder-to-prepare-for-himalayan-disasters
• Mark the Graph on lets-not-mention-war
• Saima Afzal on india-can-redraw-the-border-with-myanmar-but-who-controls-it
• Justin Hastings on tracking-north-korean-dark-ship
• Juan Caceres and Shannon Brincat on why-israel-and-turkey-are-trading-insults-and-jockeying-for-power-in-neighbouring-syria
• Shadi Saif on pakistan-s-september-showdown
• Matan Cohen and Julian Borger on aid-workers-gaza-killed-in-israel-airstrike-investigation

Wonk

• Amerigo Buongiorno on anne-frank Thanks Nick
• Sam Kriss on everyone-loves-hitler Thanks Nick
• Carolyn Sissoko and Mina Ishizu on Preventing_financial_ruin Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , what-real-bond-crisis-looks-like
• Brad De Long on crosspost-emily-bender-stochastic-parrots 
• Karryl Trajano and Brendan Lyut on no-mark-zuckerberg-the-future-is-not-yet-for-everyone
• Brad De Long on crosspost-david-albouy-jonathan-parker- john-steinsson, reading-lewis-carroll-1895-what-the-tortoise-said-to-achilles
• Sahara Hoff on the-us-has-struck-a-deal-to-control-venezuelas-oil-reserves-it-probably-wont-help-bring-down-fuel-prices
• Mainly Macro on is-the-fall-of-starmer-a-warning-for-the-democratic-party
• noahpinion on roundup-87-technology-bad
• Tyler Cowen on who-values-democracy
• the concis on the-coalition-of-the-doing Thanks Brad
• James Paterson on the-extremist-risk-behind-smart-glasses 
• Al Hynes on stop-declaring-world-war-III 
• Chris Dillow on buying-politicians
• Caitlin Dewey on gloria-steinem-death

General

• Stephen Pimentel on battling-all-the-way-home Thanks Nick
• open mind on boycott-everything-about-google

Climate

• open mind on i-dont-trust-the-usa-wildfire-data-from-our-world-in-data 
• Joshua Partlow on el-nino-effects 
• stoat on the-data-heat-island-effect
• Wesley Morgan on pacific-islands-forum-palau-summit-climate-change-greatest-threat
• Michael Mann on nepal-flooding-climate-disaster
• Tirthankar Ghosh and Levin Tielidz on the-collapse-of-a-mountainside-triggered-nepals-devastating-floods-as-the-regions-mountains-heat-up-it-wont-be-the-last
• Real Climate on koonins-temperature-of-the-lol-stratosphere
• renew economy on bloody-dangerous-territory-world-on-track-to-exceed-1-5c-warming
• Jacqueline Peel and Wesley Morgan on a-landmark-un-report-says-the-world-will-overshoot-the-1-5-c-climate-target-what-happens-now
• skeptical science on new_research
• essays concerning on the-five-stages-of-climate-denial-a-telegraph-case-study
• Mandy Freund on a-record-shattering-el-nino-is-almost-here-heres-what-that-means-for-the-worlds-weather 
• Jan McDonald et al on as-global-heating-heads-to-1-8c-is-it-time-to-consider-the-voldemort-of-climate-policy

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• why-did-anova-fall-out-of-fashion
  
• coyote-vs-acme-also-for-free-my-take-on-the-odyssey 
  
• fits-and-starts 
  
• shocked
  
• survey-statistics-logit-shift-and-raking
  
• yale-med-school-prof-tells-his-postdocs-work-extra-hours-at-my-command-or-youre-no-better-than-the-guy-who-charges-me-by-the-hour-to-cut-my-lawn 
  
• metascience-corner-what-can-we-learn-from-12-million-empirical-research-results 
  
• confirmation-bias-in-software-testing-walnutpie-edition 
  
• updike-and-statistical-writing-more-on-honesty-and-precision
  
• update-on-i-dont-understand-this-paper-claiming-election-fraud-in-2024-in-pennsylvania
  
• Kaiser Fung on note-to-nyt-simple-math-aint-simple

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• summertime-reading
  
• Andrew Gelman on updikes-kaleidoscope-telling-a-life-through-a-set-of-unconnected-stories
• Thomas Jeffries on the-threat-of-biological-warfare-is-real-a-new-book-describes-the-potential-devastation
• noahpinion on why-you-wont-get-a-flying-car

Vox Wonk

• closing-gap-borrowing-costs-emerging-market-firms 
  
• financial-engineering-no-substitute-interest-rates-lessons-turkiye 
  
• beyond-exposure-predicting-ai-adoption-based-comparative-advantage 
  
• how-currency-hedging-moves-exchange-rates 
  
• europes-federated-democratic-learning-state 
  
• global-pension-asset-allocations-and-debt-markets
  
• european-banks-and-private-markets-mapping-linkages
  
• new-evidence-strong-slow-portfolio-responses-equity-premium-changes 
  
• implications-of-climate-change-for-monetary-policy