Around the Traps 31/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Ausssie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on why-demand-rules-housing-market , house-purchase-affordability-where-i-stand
• Mark Warburton on even-the-government-agrees-job-ready-graduates-has-failed-heres-what-should-replace-it
• Milad Haghani on as-china-bans-new-cars-with-unsafe-doors-australia-risks-becoming-a-dumping-ground
• Rebecca Strating and Arzan Tarapore on new-research-shows-how-vulnerable-australia-would-be-to-attacks-on-shipping-in-the-indian-ocean
• Zareh Ghazarian on ben-carroll-is-the-new-victorian-premier-he-has-a-long-and-urgent-to-do-list-and-4-months-until-an-election
• Yee-Fui Ng on how-the-big-build-corruption-allegations-brought-down-the-victorian-premier
• Mark Bray on after-a-decade-leading-the-actu-what-is-the-legacy-of-sally-mcmanus-and-michele-oneil
• Barbara Kinder and Michael Charles on governments-have-a-financial-vested-interest-not-to-reform-gambling-laws-heres-why
• Mark Warburton et al on three-things-australia-must-do-to-end-the-tobacco-wars
• Shane Wright on it-s-lucky-inflation-is-falling-most-of-us-don-t-even-understand-what-the-reserve-bank-does 
• Stella Huangfu on australian-inflation-has-eased-a-little-an-august-interest-rate-rise-now-looks-unlikely
• Andrew Kemp on 26-charts-of-australia-in-trouble  , forty-interesting-facts-about-australiaThanks Tyler
• Timothy Koskie on australias-online-watchdog-is-taking-messaging-app-telegram-to-court-over-pro-terrorist-posts
• Millie Muroi on most-of-us-get-this-economics-question-wrong-we-re-paying-for-it
• Richard Ackland on melbourne-businessman-guilty-rape-identity-suppression-gag-order-open-justice
• Faith  Tabulujan on australias-fuel-discount-is-ending-what-does-this-mean-for-petrol-prices

OZ Climate

• strong-endorsement-australias-biggest-solar-battery-hybrid-project-locks-in-finance
  
• tallest-turbines-and-longest-blades-arrive-in-australia-for-300-km-road-trip-to-pilbara-wind-site
  
• electricity-network-tariffs-are-a-dogs-breakfast-where-to-now-for-distributors
  
• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
• queensland-utility-writes-contract-for-one-of-states-biggest-wind-projects-the-first-under-lnp-government 
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark 
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper 
  
• second-stage-of-supernode-battery-begins-operations-making-it-the-biggest-in-australias-main-grid
  
• uncertainty-over-coal-closures-haunts-wind-and-solar-projects-all-eyes-on-yallourn-as-exit-proof-point
  
• australia-cannot-hedge-its-way-to-a-renewable-export-future 
  
• wind-project-faces-referral-due-to-long-distance-objectors-citing-impacts-of-a-wind-farm-that-doesnt-exist
  
• three-months-and-still-no-sign-of-life-but-government-says-it-is-committed-to-solar-recycling-pilot
  
• the-wind-drought-that-no-one-wants-but-everyone-talks-about
  
• Steve Turton on the-dangerous-climate-driving-californias-wildfires-and-a-warning-for-australia
• Christopher Auricht on fire-can-destroy-peatlands-but-in-australia-it-can-also-help-protect-them
• Joel Gilmour on batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
• Graham Readfearn on australians-value-batteries-and-evs-but-renewables-industry-must-earn-trust-of-regions-summit-told
• Kaitlin Hammond et al on we-revisited-a-forest-experiment-that-lay-forgotten-for-30-years-what-we-found-was-astounding

Northern America

• institutional economics on money-policy-errors-and-the-fed
• Harold Meyerson on benjamin-franklin-champion-of-the-wealth-tax Thanks Nick
• John Quiggin on nate-silver-discovers-the-educated-poor
• John Carlson on the-us-just-lowered-its-own-nuclear-bar
• noahpinion on we-asked-too-much-of-the-american-university
• Kruggers on against-oligarchy-part-ii-wealth-taxes ,the-fire-this-time , the-putinization-of-the-american-military , when-the-chips-are-down , reality-is-a-communist-plot , the-bond-market-doesnt-like-bullshit
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on which-way-should-the-democratic-party-go-now
• Caitlin Dewey on us-measles-record-cdc , the-covid-debate-that-never-ended
• Cameron Peters on trump-administration-asylum-claims-immigration-judge-deportations
• Katherine Wu on anthony-fauci-politics-hearing
• Bill McKibben on tumps-isolationism-is-losing-the-great-ev-race
• Menzie Chinn on reducing-employment-growth , estimates-of-current-inventories-of-patriot-and-thaad-interceptors
• the conversable economist on major-stereotypes
• Brad De Long on josh-marshalls-ire-is-activated-by-nate-silver , crosspost-lyz-lenz-who-will-you-blame-when-the-haitain-immigrants-are-gone
• Jonatan Lemire on trump-iran-midterms
• Rachel Carson on rand-paul-anthony-fauci-lab-leak-spillover-pandemic-origin
• Jeet Heer on trump-whcd-speech-media-humiliation
• Zeeshan Aleem on netanyahu-arrest-us-poll-israel-war-criminal-zohran-mamdani-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on third-worldism-trump-rubio-cuba
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-bombing-air-force
• Jonathan Chait on comey-trump-aides-secret-service
• Isaac Chotiner on will-left-wing-democrats-re-invent-the-party-or-hurt-its-chances-in-november
• Ken Dilanian on a-jury-found-two-police-officers-covered-up-a-murder-trump-pardoned-them
• Art Gibson on faucis-covid-origins-hearing-shows-how-conspiracy-theories-became-political-weapons 
• David Frum on fauci-senate-diary-rand-paul
• Nancy Youseff and Johnathan Lemire on iran-war-trump-misunderstandings

Europe

• Tom Loosemore on uk reorganisation risks devolution and AI reform Thanks Nick
• Martin Farr on what-weve-learned-from-andy-burnhams-first-week-as-prime-minister
• James Horncastle on volodymyr-zelenskyys-removal-of-two-top-defence-officials-highlights-the-role-of-morale-in-long-wars
• Ibrahim Al-Marashi on berlin-pride-isis-still-inspires-terrorism-in-europe-but-who-carries-out-these-attacks
• Caitlin Dewey on spain-france-wildfires-europe-warming
• David Bowman et al on the-fire-has-such-power-why-the-wildfires-gripping-france-and-spain-are-off-the-charts
• Chris Dillow on social-care-the-fight-for-economic-thinking
• the conversable economist on the-eu-green-deal-hows-it-going

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on estimates-of-q2-chinese-gdp
• David Frum on saudi-arabia-trump-nuclear-deal
• Abhijen Rej on roaches-reborn-win-big-in-india
• Brad De Long on the-strait-of-hormuz-has-now-been-effectively-closed-for-4 1/2 months
• Amy McAuliffe on us-saudi-nuclear-deal-invites-proliferation-risks-unless-safeguards-are-written-in
• Saqlain Rizve on china-s-next-south-asian-corridor-may-begin-in-bangladesh 
• Yuyun Wahyuningrum on starvation-as-a-weapon-the-icj-myanmar-case-could-redefine-genocide 
• David Remnick on how-netanyahus-top-general-became-his-strongest-challenger
• Stephanie Campbell on twenty-years-of-praising-india-is-not-a-china-strategy
• home and away on overreach
• David Zhang on the-end-of-cheap-peace-in-east-asia
• noahpinion on why-did-south-korean-stocks-just-crash
• Martin Kear on trump-is-hailing-it-as-a-breakthrough-but-will-hamas-actually-disarm-in-gaza

Wonk

• Yiying Liu on seeds-possibilities-how-my-21-year-old-pomegranate-illustration Thanks Nick
• Valerie Stivers on a-novelists-dark-portrait-of-natalie-portman Thanks Nick
• Barry Weiss on what-nobody-teaches-you-about-the-holocaust Thanks Nick
• Samantha Pearson on trump-brazil-payment-system-pix Thanks Nick 
• Richard Hanania on why-populism-fails Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on experts-know-less-than-they-like-to-think
• the conversable economist on occupational-licensing-us-and-international
• Ashlynne McGhee et al on the-unsexy-low-tech-fix-that-will-reduce-brain-injuries-in-sport
• noahpinion on what-will-more-intelligence-actually-do-for-us , roundup-85
• Garritt Van Dyk on one-grain-to-rule-them-all-the-history-of-rice-as-a-global-food
• Tyler Cowen on the-decline-in-the-transmission-of-scientific-ideas
• Gregory Radisic on an-abandoned-spacex-rocket-is-about-to-crash-into-the-moon-the-real-problem-comes-next
• mainly macro on the-relationship-between-capital-plutocracy-and-populism
• David Rowe on world-game-at-war-why-some-european-nations-have-threatened-a-world-cup-boycott
• thomas the think engine on the-great-housing-surplus

General

• Noelia Noel on nasas-new-space-telescope-will-tackle-some-of-the-universes-biggest-mysteries
• Tom Davies on who-was-homer-author-of-the-odyssey
• Mathew Ahamdi et al on does-regular-exercise-stop-you-getting-sick-in-winter
• Constance Grady on odyssey-homer-nolan-which-translation

Climate

• Vanessa PIrotta on like-someone-whacking-a-pinata-orcas-explode-sunfish-by-ramming-them-at-high-speed
• Shannon Hobbs et al on who-gets-the-world-s-clean-electricity
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-prices-update
• Harris Anderson et al on can-we-alter-ocean-chemistry-to-absorb-carbon-here-are-the-pros-and-cons
• skeptical science on hot-days-cold-thermometers , new_research
• Bill McGuire on wildfires-rage-world-climate-action-scientists-fossil-fuels
• Andrew Weaver on donald-trump-blames-canada-for-wildfire-smoke-but-global-warming-is-loading-the-wildfire-dice
• Uwe Kirsher on can-pumping-groundwater-really-flip-earths-poles-an-expert-explains

Andrew Gelman (mostly stats)

• i-dont-see-journal-review-as-a-gatekeeping-process-that-will-keep-erroneous-articles-from-being-published
  
• the-jewish-vote-is-not-about-the-jewish-vote-jewish-public-opinion-is-not-about-jewish-public-opinion
  
• statistical models
• selection-effects-can-go-both-ways 
  
• survey-statistics-equivalent-models-equivalent-weights-locally 
  
• eleven-kinds-of-loneliness-richard-yates-and-the-tragedy-of-agency
  
• over-coverage-caught-by-pre-registration-47-of-56-inside-a-stated-50-interval
  
• posterior-predictive-checking-is-for-non-bayesians-too 
  
• what-do-we-learn-from-bestseller-regressions
  
• Kaiser Fung on slow-thinking-required
• Kyle Hewitt on what-is-a-p-value-an-expert-explains-the-most-misunderstood-number-in-science
• statschat on nz-weight-loss-supplement-works

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Hossain Asgari on this-compelling-novel-follows-five-lives-changed-forever-by-irans-islamic-revolution
• Tyler Cowen on liberal-worlds-james-bryce-and-the-democratic-intellect-2
• Brad De Long on partial-crosspost-william-davies-review-of-when-the-clock-broke-conmen-conspiracists-and-the-origins-of-trumpism
• John Hawkins on this-history-of-currencies-suggests-the-us-dollars-dominance-may-fade-but-it-will-happen-slowly
• Mathew Ricketson on regime-change-might-be-2026s-nonfiction-bestseller-heres-why-its-essential-chilling-reading

Vox Wonk

• after-fire-how-ukrainian-strikes-disrupt-local-economies-around-russian-refineries 
  
• assaf-razin-international-economist-global-age 
  
• technology-adoption-and-labour-shortages-evidence-britains-industrial-revolution
  
• debt-service-and-fiscal-sustainability 
  
• dividend-tax-reforms-why-design-shapes-revenue-and-measured-inequality 
  
• beyond-snapshot-how-poverty-really-unfolds-over-time-eu 
  
• rethinking-use-quantitative-easing-macro-stimulus 
  
• ai-premium
  
• digital-banks-social-media-and-competition-deposits 
  
• baby-busts-and-gdp-booms-demographic-change-and-macroeconomy
  

Rate rise probably unlikely

 The CPI came out yesterday. Things are not as bad s they looked previously.  HERE is one analysis. it is pretty much on the money.

Let me quote from CBA economic research. The trimmed mean was softer than expected and there is limited pass through at present. Add that to demand slowing, the labour market softening quicker than expected and housing being quite soft and you have a case at present to keep rates where they are.

The middle east is the major problem and may cause them to lift rates if oil prices take off.

We shall see

renewables

 It has been ssome time since I 'posted' on this topic so here are some articles.

• wholesale-electricity-prices-plunge-as-renewables-surge-batteries-boom-and-gas-power-hits-23-year-low
  
• the-crazy-diesel-fuelled-price-spikes-that-are-giving-the-renewables-transition-a-black-mark
  
• gencost-the-seven-caveats-behind-csiros-no-progress-scenario-and-why-it-isnt-cheaper
  
• batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why
  

Wholesale prices are 47% lower than this time last year. Why you ask? renewables. As they further increase and coal/ gas further decrease this should continue.

Ask another question. Why aren't investors building coal fired power stations if they are the cheapest form of power with their ears pinned back. afterall no-one is stopping them! Because they are not the cheapest  and take a long time to build. If nuclear is so attractive why are investors knocking the door down in protest for not being able to build them. Because they are easily the most expensive form of power. Duh

Politics in OZ

 Victoria

I cannot believe the ALP want to replace their leader when there is an election in november. Do they think victorians are complete morons. It merely reinforces the impression the ALP is in disarray and are fighting among themselves. The punters in australia punish the ALP for this way more harsher than the LNP . Now I favour a change of government in victoria as the ALP have been in for more than two terms and are showing clear signs they have run out of puff.

NSW

We have an ICAC hearing which is not going to be good for the Liberals moreson as they clearly favour Chris Minns. I suggest we might see a weakened version of the SA result here. The ICAC inquiry might    ( probably) divert votes from the LNP to ON.

Hanson

What can we say. She is certainly 'affectionate' about the white Australia policy'. By the way it was Harold Holt not Gough Whitlam that got rid of it thank the lord. How that is not racist thinking? Then next she is blaming victims of domestic violence. and of course she favous mass deportations alah trump. AND she has a glass jaw politically.

There is an  old saying that no matter who you vote for you will get a politician. Apart from being a moronic truism even the criticism misses the point. Whoever you vote for will be a human being. As some stage they will lie, mislead etc even dissapoint. Alas the voters are human as well and have undue expectations.

The price of oil

It is hard to see the price of oil falling much. There are four reasons for this.

1. The strait of hormuz
2. the red sea
3. the fall in russian prodution
4. inventories

As you can see 1 & 2 are related to the Illegal war the USA is conducting on Iran. They are chokepoints for middle east oil to get to the rest of the world. Trump is a moron ( this is a highly technical term) and has gotten himself into a war where there is no end unless he gives Iran too much inn an agreement. Iran has no reason to sue for peace and would like it to continue until after the mid-terms. The houthis are joining Iran in their quest. Just remember even if hostilities stop ships need insurance to sail and that would take time in both areas.

People have seemingly ignored the Russian/Ukraine war. Ukraine drones are making a mess of russian oil production and terminals. It is hard to see Ukraine reducing this successful campaign.

Inventories were rundown a lot when the War started and no oil was able to get out of the strait of hormuz. Any further hostilities could see oil prices rise bigtime.

Let me finish on a very bearish note. If trump does put boots on the ground in Iran then watch out!

Around the Traps 24/7/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rex Patrick on defence-thales-munitions-contract-aukus Thanks Nick
• Sam Bennett and Owain Emslie on cutting-community-participation-budgets-isnt-needed-to-save-the-ndis
• Michelle Grattan on israel-attacks-labors-draft-platform-on-israel-gaza-conflict
• Andrew Cullen on a-cheap-25-year-old-piece-of-hardware-broke-telstra-its-a-wake-up-call-for-other-businesses
• Hamish McKenzie and Alison Reeve on industry-backlash-threatens-australias-gas-supply-fix-leaders-must-step-up
• Wendy Goff on to-turn-the-socceroos-into-world-cup-contenders-we-need-to-start-with-the-junior-game
• Greg Jericho on gas-exports-tax-pressure-growing-inside-labor-alp-conference
• Jason Nassious on the-way-australia-taxes-gas-production-is-stuck-in-the-past-this-is-why-companies-arent-paying-their-fair-share
• Dennis Muller on media-scrutiny-can-take-many-forms-pauline-hansons-past-few-weeks-have-shown-how-quickly-it-can-backfire
• James Martin et al on three-things-australia-must-do-to-end-the-tobacco-wars
• Antony Green on correcting-late-night-live-on-one-nations-past-legal-problems
• Jon Piccini on white-australia-has-always-been-a-myth-hanson-lamenting-its-end-is-wrong-and-dangerous

OZ Climate

• its-got-to-be-more-than-big-batteries-the-triumphs-and-failures-of-australias-green-energy-transition
  
• australias-solar-pv-recycling-plans-on-hold-afhttps://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-solar-pv-recycling-plans-on-hold-after-flagship-pilot-project-suspended/ter-flagship-pilot-project-suspended
  
• firefighter-group-hits-back-at-wild-claims-and-fear-mongering-over-transmission-lines-and-fire-risk
  
• yes-we-need-more-wind-power-in-the-meantime-lets-get-the-most-from-the-projects-we-have 
• major-milestone-for-big-battery-next-to-gas-plant-in-coal-country-as-1038th-and-final-unit-installed
  
• scientifically-tenuous-half-baked-epbc-reform-will-leave-wind-industry-in-the-wilderness-investors-warn
  
• rinehart-back-miner-achieves-90-pct-renewables-in-june-quarter-may-take-processing-plant-off-grid
  
• battery-boast-australia-dodges-global-gas-price-shock-with-help-of-storage-and-renewables
  
• will-data-centres-save-the-wind-industry-or-kill-our-climate-targets-or-could-they-do-both
  
• worm-turns-for-wind-arrival-of-biggest-and-lowest-cost-turbines-stirs-australias-moribund-market
  
• Pippa Neil on slowdown-arctic-sea-ice-melt-largest-winter-decline-record
• Jason Alexandra on building-dams-to-protect-lismore-from-flooding-would-cost-billions-could-nature-do-it-better

Northern America

• Michael Liss on a-natural-aristocracy-among-men Thanks Nick
• institutional economikevin-warsh-likes-monetarism-but-does-monetarism-like-kevin-warsh
• Menzie Chinn on ai-capex-and-accounting-for-us-gdp-growth
• Kruggers on lina-khan-on-ai-and-more , trumps-war-on-the-future-monetary-edition , oy-canada-tariffs, elon-musk-the-new-hero-of-populism , quagmire-of-the-vanities
• Jean-Nicholas Bordelau on trump-is-rehashing-old-claims-the-2020-election-was-stolen-his-real-aim-sowing-doubt-in-the-midterms 
• Tom Nicholls on trump-war-iran-casualties, trump-iran-conflict-pentagon
• Ruth Marcus on trumps-war-on-journalists
• noahpinion on americas-political-economy-is-pretty-bleak-right-now
• Chris Bertram on on-refugees-being-cast-as-invaders-and-fighting-age-males
• Nina Jankowicz on trump-election-fraud-speech-what-to-know
• Joshua Keating on trump-venezuela-iran 
• Dahlia Lithwick on monarchy-supreme-court-popular-constitution-by-the-people
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-goes-to-trade-war-with-canada , trump-nuclear-deal-saudi-israel-july
• Tyler Cowen on is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy
• Biyon Joseph on washington-misreads-middle-power-cooperation
• Bryan Walsh on wildfire-heat-wave-climate-change-smoke-adaptation
• Fred Kaplan on trump-saudi-nuclear-pact-israels-popularity-tanking
• Daniel Schlozman on the-dnc-against-itself
• Dani Schulkin et al on courts-grand-juries-reject-trump-investigations
• Lisa Needham on lorenzo-salgado-araujo-joan-sebastian-guerrero
• Caitlin Dewey on how-israel-lost-the-dems
• Michael Schmitt on clausewitz-operation-epic-fury
• Alan Wolf on trumps-new-tariffs-over-forced-labor-are-unlikely-to-survive-a-court-challenge thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on trump-saudi-nuclear-deal-analysis

Europe

• Eric Shaw on andy-burnham-is-the-labour-leader-third-time-lucky-for-the-uks-prime-minister-in-waiting
• Ben Wellings on burnhams-britain-what-kind-of-country-has-the-uks-new-prime-minister-inherited
• Stefan Wolff on ukraines-defence-shake-up-exposes-rift-in-zelenskys-inner-circle
• Paul Whitely on could-count-binface-actually-win
• Hannah Bunting on andy-burnham-becomes-prime-minister-after-keir-starmer-leaves-downing-street-for-the-last-time
• Andrew Roe-Crines on no-lectern-and-the-promise-of-a-new-model-what-we-can-learn-from-andy-burnhams-speech
• noahpinion on the-uk-is-a-cautionary-tale-for-the-USA
• Cory Alpert on kyiv-s-streets-are-rewriting-zelenskyy-s-mandate
• mainly macro on the-political-barriers-to-radical-tax-reform
• Mick Ryan on ukraine-s-new-command-team-faces-its-first-three-tests 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-remembering-a-cold-war-adventure-in-portugal

Asia

• Lyne O'Donnell on the-taliban-s-harder-task-to-turn-conquest-into-control
• Linda Lee on dmz-changes-put-birds-on-a-trip-wire
• Vincent Parada on why-chinese-claims-of-sovereignty-over-the-batan-islands-cannot-be-ignored 
• Sanjoy Paul on why-new-houthi-threats-in-the-red-sea-could-spell-trouble-for-global-oil-prices-and-inflation
• Mariam Farida on as-its-support-in-lebanon-wanes-hezbollah-faces-a-difficult-decision-about-its-future
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parama on iran-is-turning-into-the-sort-of-forever-war-that-donald-trump-promised-to-avoid
• Asha Hemrajani and Julia Chinn on singapore-s-anti-scam-war-catching-mules-missing-masterminds
• Caitllan Dewey on iran-war-july-strikes
• Brad De Long on the-strait-of-hormuz-has-now-been-effectively-closed-for-4 1/2-months
• Hamideh Mohammadi and Ali Abbassi on as-missiles-fly-iranians-are-turning-to-art-culture-and-memes-to-find-community
• Helen Epstein on gazas-deadly-soil
• Ved Shinde on japan-and-india-focus-on-culture-to-connect
• Bich Tran on vietnam-s-cooperation-and-struggle-bind-with-china

Wonk

• James Breckwoldt on how-to-get-big-stuff-done-in-government Thanks Nick
• Toby Manhire on bridges-and-betrayal-the-lange-douglas-letters Thanks Nick
• the technium on latent-space-as-a-new-medium Thanks Nick 
• moral clarity on the-people-who-know-nothing-know-everything Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on can-you-keep-a-trade-secret
• the conversable economist on is-progress-sustainable-mokyrs-nobel-lecture , chokepoints-for-ocean-trade-strait-of-hormuz-and-what-else
• Tony Jan on there-are-already-16-000-satellites-in-earths-orbit-how-will-we-manage-the-next-100-000
• Marina Zhang on chinese-companies-are-taking-over-the-ev-market-whats-behind-their-meteoric-rise
• Cass Sunstein on on-being-a-conservative thanks Tyler 
• Brad De Long on convergence-in-llm-quality-and-slowdown-llm-improvement , the-short-summer-of-cross-nation-convergence-in-real-GDP-per capita-levels , retrodiction-and-prediction-history
• Joyce Siette on your-dementia-risk-is-higher-if-your-spouse-has-it-but-its-more-than-shared-lifestyle
• Areyh Neir on so-called-international-law-trump-icc
• noahpinion on who-was-the-worst-monster-of-the-20th-century
• Markus Wagner on the-us-is-issuing-billions-in-tariff-refunds-that-wont-unwind-the-damage-to-the-global-trading-system

General

• Joshua McDermott on the-odyssey-is-haunted-by-the-mysterious-sea-peoples-but-who-were-they-really
• Daniel Mendelsohn on artful-weaving-odyssey-christopher-nolan

Climate

• David Appell on no-pause-in-global-temperature
• moyhu on june-global-surface-templs-up-0062-from-may
• Duo Chan and Alessandro Silvano on your-dementia-risk-is-higher-if-your-spouse-has-it-but-its-more-than-shared-lifestyle
• ocean acidification on the-molecular-footprint-of-global-change-in-antarctic-coral 
• open mind on canada-wildfire 
• skeptical science on canada-boreal-wildfires-not-just-bad-management , new_research
• Harris Anderson et al on can-we-alter-ocean-chemistry-to-absorb-carbon-here-are-the-pros-and-cons
• Katherine Johnson on can-rewilding-offer-us-a-brighter-greener-future

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-scientists-in-the-epstein-files-including-a-roboticist-and-an-esp-researcher
  
• its-all-about-the-super-pacs-how-the-new-york-times-completely-misreported-campaign-contributions-in-the-maine-senate-race
  
• university-of-california-professor-and-ted-talk-performer-asks-sex-trafficker-for-3000000-because-he-thinks-theres-a-50-chance-hell-make-important-discoveries-in-telepathy
  
• fancy-three-dimensional-sets-are-easier-to-construct-in-books-than-in-movies-but-harder-to-explain
  
• was-this-usda-survey-really-redundant-costly-politicized-and-extraneous 
  
• survey-statistics-poststratification-without-population-level-information 
  
• he-washed-his-hands-in-a-can-of-tetraethyl-lead-at-a-press-conference-claiming-he-was-not-taking-any-chance-whatever-he-knew-this-to-be-a-lie-having-already-succumbed-to-a-bout
  
• pretty-maps-of-the-ny-mayoral-election-vote-the-meta-point-here-is-that-people-have-a-false-intuition-that-any-complicated-piece-of-information-can-be-conveyed-in-a-single-plot
  
• how-generic-language-shapes-the-development-of-social-thought
  
• Kaiser Fung on recent-ai-use-cases

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• place-based-industrial-policies-long-run 
  
• how-oil-price-shocks-redraw-map-conflict
  
• dollar-erosion-macroeconomic-consequences-losing-reserve-currency-status 
  
• occupational-licensing-across-countries-new-evidence-44-nations
  
• rebuilding-world-order-two-strategies-fragmented-world 
  
• lifelong-learning-becoming-increasingly-important-response-labour-market 
  
• achieving-european-banking-union-without-increasing-risks 
  
• resilience-network-property-europes-integration-test-2050
  

Iran

You do not win a war by bombing the clappers out of the country. By simply staying on their feet Iran wins the war and the USA and therefore Trump looks impotent.

As I said before if you wish to destroy the nuclear program, reduce its missile and drone capacity, have regime change and have it withdraw from financing various terrorist groups then you have to have boots on the ground. Even then the results would be problematic. There would be lots of well armed people willing to kill US soldiers. The politics is also against it. It is already a very unpopular war. This would make it more so. Why were they killed would be a devastating question.

Thus we we have trump and his incompetent defence secretary having overreached themselves. However it gets worse. Iran now have done so.

We live in uncertain times and i have no idea of how this mess gets solved.

Some TV Shows

 The Capture

I will simply say watch it. There are three seasons and they are all brilliant. It is on Iview so binge it if you haven't seen it. Highly recommended.

Watson

A modern day version of Sherlock and Watson but with little of Sherlock. Watson is a highly trained medical specialist not the bumbling butt of jokes in the novels and he is black and it is based in the USA. He does have a beautiful ex-wife. After an episode you will like it or not. It is more of a medical drama rather than a crime drama.

Boston Blue

This is an offshoot of Blue Bloods one of the best us crime series and this does does not disappoint. In a word if you like blue bloods then you will like boston blue. A couple of minor criticisms. Sean is different and not as good and the writing on religion ( christianity and judaism) lacks knowledge.

Cooper and Fry

Another series on the ABC. Short seasons but interesting. You will either like it or not after the first episode.

The Odyssey

 I watched the odyssey last night with my two sons. It is three hours I wil never get back.

Given my greek background ( I have always enjoyed greek mythology even as a schoolboy)and given the rotten tomatoes rating of 98 I went full of hope.

It was in vain. The film is three hours and way too long and to be honest I thought it to a load of old cobblers.

My eldest son thought it too long but thought he needed to watch it. My youngest said it was soso but again you needed to watch it and the audience actually clapped at the end of the movie so yes I could be just one of the 2%!

There was quite a few black people in the film which would have been unheard of in greek society two of the wives and one was helen of troy/sparta. very inclusive!

I was surprised he didn't use the story to show the remnants of troy started rome!

Spain wins the world cup

Spain deservedly won the world cup. They started slow , like most champions of the past, but finished with a wet sail.

I really do not know what the Argentine tactics were, Perhaps playing for a penalty shoot out! Whatever but it was a one-sided contest. Clearly the previous games took a lot out of their players. Messi did very little. ( yamal had a quiet game as well.)

It will probably go down as the world cup where good coaches made inexplicable substitutions ,tuchel at the top of the heap. Overall there was only one game which was truly one-sided and therefore a blow out occurred. We do not know however whether this was a  one-off or a regular thing. blow-outs will reduce the credibility of the word cup. consistency on red cards are also important and thus the FIFA president needs to go.

The world cup now is so large few countries can host it. ( We cannot because of stadiums).

We await what occurs in four years.

Around the Traps 17/7/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kimberlee Weatherall on australias-government-has-woken-up-to-the-risks-of-ai-more-ambition-is-needed
• Anam Bilgrami on one-nation-says-photo-id-will-help-stop-medicare-rorts-heres-why-thats-wrong
• Peter Breadon et al on unfair-fees-and-low-competition-why-the-pharmacy-sector-needs-a-shake-up
• Kevin Bonham on demosau-could-hare-clark-help-one-nation-shift-tasmania-to-the-right
• Rita Matulionyte on australia-wants-to-manage-ai-what-will-that-look-like
• Peter Greste on its-the-abcs-job-to-be-accurate-and-fair-not-to-chase-the-dangerous-fallacy-of-balance
• Greg Jericho on one-nation-australian-economy-peoples-bank
• Becky Freeman and Michelle Jongenelis on despite-claims-smoking-has-made-a-comeback-just-5-6-of-australians-now-smoke-daily

OZ Climate

• its-nuts-wind-developer-forced-to-truck-giant-transformer-thousands-of-kilometres-after-port-refusal
  
• states-stand-alone-solar-fail-the-energy-transition-should-deliver-more-than-a-new-landlord
  
• starting-from-scratch-on-nuclear-in-australia-would-take-longer-cost-more-than-first-time-offshore-wind
  
• solar-and-wind-remain-backbone-of-least-cost-future-grid-as-batteries-squeeze-gas-to-a-fraction-of-the-mix
  
• we-cannot-wait-changes-made-to-renewable-tenders-to-ensure-wind-and-solar-projects-actually-get-built
  
• solar-and-wind-remain-backbone-of-least-cost-future-grid-as-batteries-squeeze-gas-to-a-fraction-of-the-mix
  
• coal-closure-plan-urgently-needed-as-unreliable-clunkers-push-power-prices-through-roof
  
• australia-is-running-a-data-deficit-on-evs-and-the-energy-shit-and-everyone-pays-the-price
  
• the-great-gas-disconnect-why-australia-needs-a-managed-exit-strategy-for-stranded-gas-network
• Andrew Watkins on what-happened-to-australias-snow-season-a-climate-expert-explains
• Graham Readfearn on coalition-and-one-nations-plan-to-ditch-net-zero-would-not-lower-power-prices-csiro-report-finds
• Mehdi Sayedmahmdian on the-data-centre-boom-wont-mean-higher-power-prices-if-we-unlock-stalled-renewable-projects

Northern America

• institutional economics on can-us-exceptionalism-survive-demographic-decline 
• Samuel Rubinstein on jd-vances-convenient-catholicism Thanks Nick
• Andrew Kemp on an-australian-perspective-on-the-fourth-of-july Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on magas-attack-on-science-is-even-worse-than-it-looks , i-have-never-been-working-class , the-american-suburbs-are-better-than-you-think , why-i-didnt-sign-the-we-must-act-now
• Kruggers on ai-in-an-age-of-oligarchy , suddenly-hormuz-is-less-crucial-than-it-was , the-forever-war-gets-scary , democracy-in-an-age-of-powermaxxing , trump-cant-get-no-respect
• Menzie Chinn on the-sustainability-of-ai-investment , ppi-and-cpi-again
• Benji Sarlin on lindsey-graham-dead-donald-trump-legacy-senate-ukraine
• Anne Applebaum on lindsey-graham
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-voting-tariffs-trump-shameless
• John Cassidy on donald-trumps-needless-war-with-iran-is-his-biggest-economic-blunder
• Brad De Long on crosspost-claudia-sahm-what-will-it-take-for-the-fed-to-hike
• David Rhode et al  on trump-classified-intelligence-midterm-elections-2026
• Hady Mawajdeh and Sean Rameswaram on ice-killing-houston-araujo
• Adam Serwer on the-see-no-evil-supreme-court
• Alexis Romero on supreme-court-justices-senate-barrett-kagan-ethics
• new deal democrat on june-cpi-never-look-a-gift-horse-in-the-mouth
• Liz Dye on todd-blanche-confirmation-hearing
• Greg Barton on backed-into-a-corner-by-iran-over-the-strait-of-hormuz-trump-may-resort-to-even-more-reckless-escalation
• Andrew Prokop on israel-democrats-polling-gaza-genocide
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-testosterone-testing-military
• the conversable economist on how-much-does-federal-rd-pay-off
• Tom Dannenbaum and Eliav Lieblich on international-law-response-rubio-icc
• Jeet Heer on lindsey-graham-obituary-trump , trump-election-fraud-speech-reaction-analysis

Europe

• Cory Alpert on the-alliance-trump-built-trying-to-break-it
• mainly macro on how-right-wing-populism-came-easily-to-the-conservative-party
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-denys-shtilerman-drone-missile

Asia

• Jessica Genauer on despite-trumps-wishes-iran-is-dragging-the-us-into-a-long-war
• Rodger Shanahan on how-an-assassination-by-trump-and-netanyahu-became-a-victory-for-their-enemy
• Gabriela Bernal on behind-pyongyang-s-boom
• Muhammed Rizwan on afghanistan-s-exportable-threat
• Andrew Prokop on trump-strait-hormuz-guardian-fees-iran
• Amin Saikal on the-us-and-iran-are-back-at-war-and-with-one-main-sticking-point-theres-no-end-in-sight
• home and away on special-edition-a-strategy-for-iran
• Henry Storey on can-china-create-the-next-apple-or-nvidia
• Menzie Chinn on china-macro-indicators-as-reported

Wonk

• Felix Martin on good-bad-ugly-ais-economic-impact Thanks Nick
• David Dayen on great-ai-repricing-isnt-going-well Thanks Nick
• Martha Nussbaum on the-professor-of-parody Thanks Nick
• Pete Buttegieg on a-terrible-thing-happened-to-my-family Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on five-facts-about-the-uncovered-interest-parity-premium , kim-ruhl-rethinking-free-trade
• Alexander Howard on friday-essay-cultural-marxism-is-a-conspiracy-theory-for-our-time
• Christopher Pollard on antonio-gramsci-his-philosophy-explained
• Tyler Cowen on progress-against-dementia , markets-are-competitive-if-and-only-if-p-np
• Brad De Long on crosspost-art-goldhammer-the-unbearable-vacuity-of-the-moment
• Marina Zhang on when-tech-giants-exercise-state-power
• David Nellor on ai-regulation-answers-the-wrong-question
• Shannon Brincat on the-trump-administration-wants-to-dismantle-the-international-criminal-court-can-it
• Abhinandan Kumar on at-the-world-cup-as-in-life-football-nationalises-success-and-ethnicises-failure
• Sarah Diepstraten and John La Marca on no-evidence-mobile-phones-cause-brain-cancer-new-study
• David Pritchard on how-controlling-and-tolling-a-narrow-waterway-near-ancient-troy-changed-history

General

• Anne-Sophie Levidis on what-the-annales-taught-me-at-the-kitchen-table Thanks Nick
• Bikesh Upreti et al on var-was-supposed-to-take-the-messy-human-element-out-of-refereeing-how-did-it-go-so-wrong
• Daryl Sparkes on remembering-the-quiet-genius-of-sam-neill
• Philip Almond on philistine-is-a-byword-for-boorish-ignorance-but-the-real-philistines-were-cultured-who-were-they
• Greta Hawes and R Scott Smith on the-odyssey-is-set-in-a-fantasy-world-but-the-ancient-greeks-mapped-it-onto-what-they-knew
• Anthony Macris on ive-been-reading-the-odyssey-my-whole-life-nolans-film-version-is-exhilarating-but-not-perfect

Climate

• David Appell on short-but-moving 
• ocean acidification on the-effects-of-single-and-multiple-climate-driven-stressors-exposures-on-the-seagrass-posidonia-oceanica-phenological-cellular-and-genetic-adaptations , climate-change-and-ocean-acidification-outweigh-local-stressors-in-mediterranean-mussels-a-multi-method-convergence-analysis
• Tim Harford on how-did-air-conditioning-become-a-heated-debate
• stochastic trend on long-run-benefits-of-electrification
• Kit Prendergast on big-bees-have-the-most-to-lose-as-global-co-levels-rise-new-research
• skeptical science on deadly-france-heatwave-future-risk , home-batteries-next-must-have
• open mind on historys-hottest-heat-n-hemisphere-extratropics-edition
• Menzie Chinn on june-temperature-anomaly

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-bad-science-from-jama
  
• archaeology-cant-give-social-scientists-population-or-gdp-but-here-are-some-things-we-can-measure-that-might-be-useful-for-social-science
  
• archaeology-cant-give-social-scientists-population-or-gdp-but-here-are-some-things-we-can-measure-that-might-be-useful-for-social-science
  
• interesting-statistical-example-of-flaws-in-a-voter-impact-index
  
• making-statistics-work-information-theory-and-bayesian-inference 
  
• survey-statistics-quantifying-uncertainty-in-ranked-choice-voting-polls
  
• a-ranked-choice-election-in-maine-using-voting-data-to-understand-preferences
  
• reviews-of-our-bayesian-workflow-book-from-bin-yu-david-spiegelhalter-brad-efron-christian-robert-and-rohan-alexander
  
• Kaiser Fung on drowning-in-colors

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• trapped-home-climate-stress-more-likely-immobilise-poor-move-them 
  
• innovation-without-borders 
  
• ned-phelps-and-modern-macroeconomics
  
• how-large-current-account-imbalances-unwind-evidence-historical-adjustment-episodes 
  
• climate-fairness-economic-development-and-europes-responsibility 
  
• macroeconomic-impact-recovery-and-resilience-facility-analysis-italy-spain-and-greece
  
• opening-black-box-europes-new-fiscal-rules 
  
• harmonising-access-and-reinventing-procurement-innovative-medicines-europe 
  
• higher-utilisation-explains-recent-surge-productivity-growth 
  
• after-credit-suisse-markets-find-bail-less-credible
  

It is Spain V Argentina

 The semi-finals are over and we know who the finalists are. Spain will start favourites. They have conceded only one goal, whilst they stated slow they have gotten better with each game and they know how to control the ball.

Whilst spain were very good against france we should acknowledge france were poor. It seemed they were unaware ( like when they played paraguay) of the tactics spain would use. everybody else knew. His substitutions made little sense. The left back was bad and should not have been selected.

argentine deservedly won the other semi-final. england had one chance and scored. argentina had plenty and hit the post twice! The english substitutions made little sense.He brought on defenders when up only 1-0. Strangle the defence got worse. Also despite an immense advantage in height argentina always looked dangerous when a cross came over and consequently won because of a messi cross. England's crosses were poor.

I favour Spain. Unlike england they can control the game if they score. Their defence is the best in the competition and they can attack quickly. Lastly Messi looks quite tired which is understandable given his age and the heat.

bring on monday morning ( 5am)

The strait of hormuz

 This will be very short.

You will not get any ships going through the strait until they get insurance. NO insurance company will write a policy at present because of uncertainty the the very high risks involved.

Thus the present imbroglio is helping Iran not the USA.

The USA

 Minnesota

I read the governor had pardoned a child rapist and said to myself what the hell is going on. I then found out the victim asked Waltz to pardon him. This was vital information yet it was missing. Why? So-called conservatives thought it irrelevant to the story showing they are not journalists but poor propogandists. Poor because once it was known they would be seen for what they are.

Iran

Trump is now planning to charge a toll on any ship using the strait of hormuz. Strange but when Iran threatened this people pointed out it was illegal. The more I think about it the more I cannot see a solution to the war Trump declared.

How many patriot and tomahawk missiles have been wasted on Iran? Iran was never a threat to any country. Those missiles could have been used well by Ukraine

Lindsay Graham

He died from a heart attack on the weekend. his great claim was on foreign policy yet he was very poor on this. He fervently supported the war on Iraq despite Iraq not being a threat to anyone. He wanted Trump to invade Iran! that was nuts. At least he was right on Ukraine but even here he was impotent. His very last journey was to Ukraine. The Whitehouse was still saying russia held all the cards and was advancing on all fronts.  The white house believed russian disinformation rather than the facts on the ground.

ICE

ICE has killed yet another person and blatantly lied about it. They repeat the same lie after they kill some-one. The white house seem oblivious to polls showing how deeply unpopular this policy is. It is the single issue that has completely changed the 'latino' vote.

The similarities of Platner and Farage ( and Le Pen?)

 For those living on another planet Graham Platner recently resigned as the democratic  senate candidate for Maine. Nigel Farage resigned his seat for election but will re-contest it where his main opponent is count binface! Marie Le Pen will contest the French presidency but with an ankle bracelet!

Platner had a nazi tattoo for which he had no intelligent explanation for. Surely amber lights were flashing. then we had secting scandals and finally we had him accused of rape which was the final straw.

Farage has so many allegations of corruption I will outsource it.

Le Pen also has problems with corruption.

Both Platner and Farage pleaded innocent of all charges BUT said it was all the work of the 'ESTABLISHMENT'.

Both Farage and Le Pen wanted the voters to make decisions on their charges not courts or parliamentary committees specifically designed for such work.

Both Platner and Farage have been found out . When the heat was on then they had no satisfactory explanations and lashed out.

Both Farage and Le Pen want nothing to do with a proper investigation of their offences. They want voters to make a decisions whilst being uninformed. ( hopefully Count Binface will embarrass Farage to the hilt. Farage does have the look of a slimey crooked person!) Why is it the right wing populists are so open to corruption?

In Farage's case if he is found guilty by the parliamentary committee He will have to miss ten days of parliament and thereby  be recalled and hence a new by-election.