Starmer gawn

 Keir Starmer has resigned. I do not pretend to understand politics in the UK. I wrote previously that Starmer although seen as a decent man di not pick staff well and was quite indecisive by nature. This led people to wonder what the Labour party was doing. Starmer was also poor at speeches so when he hit tradewinds he had little to help him.

The massive win for Burnham in Manchester simply made it evitable he would become PM. Unlike Starmer he is an excellent communicator so we shall see. I shall certainly be listening to the redoubtable Ian Dunt tonight on late night live.

Poppa got it badly wrong

 Perhaps the Turkey game went to his head but Poppa's changes to australia against the USA made no sense.   He dropped our two goal scorers and perhaps our two best players on the field and their replacements made no sense. One should not even be there and the other is too old.

changes were needed because we knew the USA would come at us. I would have brought in Herrington at the back as he has the pace and Irvine in the midfield as he has the experience.

I would have thought after all the trash talk our blokes would have come out fighting but they were lethargic.

Against Paraguay I would have Herrington at the back and would have Volpato ( he was a revelation when he came on), Toure and Irankanda to score goals.

We can win and should play to win.

Around the Traps 19/6/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Sam McLure on hard-to-think-of-a-more-wasteful-project-economist-slams-bloody-minded-afl-over-stadium Thanks Nick
• Robert Breunig and Peter Varela on how-simple-changes-to-australias-skilled-migration-program-could-add-billions-a-year-to-the-economy
• Mick Ryan on russia-s-slow-defeat-and-australia-s-hard-lesson
• Stella Huangfu on the-rba-holds-interest-rates-steady-but-warns-another-hike-is-possible-if-inflation-stays-high
• Fadi Maayah on after-a-coaching-masterclass-against-turkey-can-the-socceroos-shock-the-us-and-paraguay
• Mark the Graph on a-cruel-irony-in-housing-target
• Antony Green on the-financial-reviews-inaccurate-preference-analysis
• Mark the Ballot on polling-update , betting-market-update
• Adrian Beaumont on latest-polls-still-have-one-nation-leading-on-primary-votes-but-not-gaining

OZ Climate

• Adam Morton on climate-denial-in-vogue-pauline-hanson-australia-cop31
• Kimberly Reid on the-weather-bureau-has-just-declared-an-el-nino-what-could-this-mean-for-australia
• new-records-for-wind-and-battery-output-in-last-month-of-autumn-taking-big-bite-out-of-coal-and-gas
  
• plans-for-australias-biggest-wind-farm-scaled-back-with-solar-and-big-battery-added-to-create-huge-hybrid
  
• plans-to-resurrect-2km-buffer-zone-will-make-new-renewable-projects-unviable-cec-warns
  
• chart-of-the-day-farewell-king-coal-long-live-king-solar-and-wind-and-batteries
  
• data-centres-could-unblock-renewables-bottlenecks-if-they-dont-hit-barriers-of-their-own
  
• too-complex-too-hard-too-often-unfair-plan-to-reform-electricity-pricing-backs-contentious-tariff-changes
  
• frequency-penalties-are-costing-some-solar-farms-millions-but-this-is-the-market-working
  
• auditor-general-slams-management-of-snowy-2-0-as-more-delays-loom-and-project-costs-blow-out
  
• councils-call-for-national-climate-compensation-fund-and-they-want-the-polluters-to-pay
  
• delaying-clean-energy-is-what-really-makes-power-bills-soar
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on nowhere-to-hide
• Brad De Long on the-health-gap-between-conservative-and-liberal-america-can-be-seen-in-the-mortality-data , bonds-and-equities-have-not-recently-hedged-each-other
• Kruggers on meet-the-new-bosses-worse-than-the-old-bosses , the-theory-of-the-vulgar-class, unlocked-repost-curing-us-healthcare-part111: the-future , donald-trump-champion-of-renewable-energy
• Christian Paz on southern-baptist-convention-right-wing-drift-religious-influencers-content-creator-populist-christianity-catholic-protestant
• Ruth Marcus on why-todd-blanche-should-not-be-attorney-general
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-defeat-iran-war
• noahpinion  on iran-is-trumps-katrina
• the conversable economist on dairy-supply-and-demand-stories
• Tom Nicholls on trump-g7-comments-misunderstsand-middle-east

Europe

• Felix Martin on how-eu-can-respond-second-china-shock Thanks Nick 
• Paul Reilly on belfast-unrest-shows-the-power-of-social-media-as-far-right-views-on-immigration-enter-the-mainstream
• noahpinion on degrowth-would-make-europeans-into-europoor
• Lisa Given on australia-has-already-banned-social-media-for-under-16s-heres-what-the-uk-can-learn-from-the-experience
• Mark Edele on putin-wanted-to-make-russia-great-again-instead-ukraine-is-the-new-rising-power-in-europe
• Anastaysia Byesyedina on russias-strike-on-centuries-old-ukrainian-monastery-complex-reveals-its-growing-desperation
• Khalid Khoser on voters-weigh-the-real-cost-of-less-migration
• Iryna Skubii on the-world-has-stopped-seeing-ukraine
• mainly macro on the-consequences-of-tolerating-far-right

Asia

• Jessica Genauer on are-the-us-and-iran-back-at-war-or-negotiating-why-bombing-your-way-to-peace-wont-work , whats-in-the-us-iran-peace-deal-a-lot-of-concessions-and-empty-promises-from-trump-in-return-for-little
• Shruti Pandalai on beijing-s-ban-on-nz-mps-is-a-calibration-test-will-democracies-pass-it
• Amin Saikal on a-peace-deal-may-bring-an-end-to-the-iran-war-but-what-did-the-us-and-israel-truly-achieve
• Joshua Keating on iran-ceasefire-trump
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-deal-war-news-hormuz , trump-iran-deal-war-news-hormuz-mou
• Tom Nicholls on trump-iran-deal
• noahpinion on will-china-inc-be-zombified
• Francis Fukuyama on the-art-of-the-non-deal Thanks Brad
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-boasts-about-the-art-of-the-deal-he-knows-nothing-about-the-art-of-war
• Kevin Morrison on us-iran-deal-should-see-oil-and-lng-begin-to-flow-again-slowly
• Shadi Rouhshahbaz on the-iran-peace-deal-must-demand-the-release-of-narges-mohammadi-and-other-prisoners-of-conscience
• Andrew Arsan on unmaking-the-middle-east-what-really-went-wrong
• Jing Je on china-is-turning-the-waters-east-of-taiwan-grey
• home and away on defeat
• Graham Wood on iran-trump-war-defeat-deal
• Ishaan Tharoor on the-spectacular-failure-and-ruinous-costs-of-the-iran-war

Wonk

• Heidi Blake on andrew-tates-empire-of-abuse Thanks Nick
• global inequality on defeated-by-the-real-world  Thanks Nick
• Michael Pettis on how-are-global-imbalances-transmitted  Thanks Nick 
• David Pinsof et al on strange bedfellows Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on homo-experiens-the-biology-of-decision-making-and-behavioral-economics
• Tyler Cowen on sometimes-it-is-hard-to-solve-for-the-equilibrium
• Kruggers on technology-and-social-change , power-and-geopolitics-after-trump
• Brad De Long on ask-not-for-whom-the-schumpeterian-creative-destruction-bells-tolls-this-time
• Holly Seale et al on ebola-hantavirus-diphtheria-how-distrust-in-health-care-is-fuelling-multiple-outbreaks-across-the-globe
• Mark the Graph on weekly-energy-update , mmt-in-three-layers

General

• Johann Fourie on a-football-is-not-enough thanks tyler
• Carol Oliver on aliens-might-exist-but-there-are-three-reasons-why-theyre-not-visiting-us
• Charlie Huveneers on do-shark-culls-keep-people-safe-in-the-ocean-heres-what-the-science-says

Climate

• David Appell on warming-up-to-2025-137c
• skeptical science on plateauing-co2-slowed-growth , new_research
• ocean acidification on sea-to-shining-sea-noaa-launches-dual-coastwide-ocean-acidification-research-missions
• Fionagh Thomson on one-of-the-worlds-most-important-climate-threats-has-an-image-problem
• Kripa Anand and Anuttama Banerji on climate-change-is-coming-for-asia-s-cities-delhi-s-heat-is-just-a-taste

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• to-what-extent-is-it-true-that-all-intelligence-human-or-artificial-must-extract-structure-from-correlational-data
  
• are-prediction-markets-causing-more-harm-than-good 
  
• capitalism-on-its-last-legs-or-healthy-enough-to-be-milked
  
• the-new-york-knicks-and-the-martingale-property-of-calibrated-probability-forecasts
  
• survey-statistics-using-mrp-in-later-analyses-pride-edition
  
• https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/18/llm-case-study-galilelo-inclined-plane/
  
• Tim Harford on data-you-dont-know-what-youve-got-till-its-gone
• Kaiser Fung on confirmation-bias-on-display , the-greatest-nations-on-earth

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brad De Long on reading-gunnar-myrdal-challenge-to-affluence
• Andrew Gelman on elmore-leonard

Vox Wonk

• unequal-burden-oil-shocks-labour-markets-and-monetary-policy 
  
• regulation-and-growth-reloaded-lessons-25-years-retail-trade-and-professional 
  
• not-all-reserves-are-born-equal-why-source-matters-sovereign-risk
  
• reciprocal-sovereignty-third-constitutional-tradition-europe
  
• taking-the-pulse-of-global-trade-policy
  
• fiscal-rules-compliance-and-sovereign-borrowing-costs-some-evidence-euro-area
  
• design-and-effect-tariff-retaliation-evidence-eu
  
• impact-trade-wars-firms-third-countries
  
• trade-restrictions-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-fdi-flows 
  
• prevention-birth-birthright-citizenship-reduces-youth-crime
  

Pauline Hanson did not impress

 Pauline Hanson delivered a very long address at the national press club. She then avoided most of the questions asked and showed a clear glass jaw.

Just a few examples.

She believes employees have too much power and are lazy. holy Theory Y Theory Z batman. Douglas McGregor wrote the book in 1957. the theory is almost as old as I am!!  I can see ALP stalwarts making an ad of this remark.

She believes net zero is a myth and renewables is the reason power costs have risen. She wants to stop all renewables and build coal and a nuclear power station.  Wow a lot of ignorance there. lots of ad material her as well.

She did not react well to a question from Sarah Martin who asked about he daughter who is employed by a NSW senator but LIVES in Tasmania. She apparently wants to be a senator there.

In short she thrived on the grievances but has few solutions. She has never had the concentration of the press on her during an election. Next time she will and on this evidence she will not react well.

Just remember given her hostility to immigration ( non-white) she has probably reached her peak in votes. Her aim is to keep those people who have migrated ( pun intended) from the LNP and the ALP.

Her lack of policies, hostility to the press, hostility to workers, hostility to the environment will all hurt her in that aim.

Just remember in 1996 she said asians would take over Australia. About a decade later she changed that to muslims. None of those predictions have come within coo-ee of being right.

home battery

 An update on how our battery is going.

The last bill was around $110 which is very low for a four person household. however it was that high because my wife had the air conditioning on quite a lot.

A battery is very good at telling you indirectly how much various items use electricity. Thus washing machines, dishwashers etc use little but ovens,stoves, mico-waves, air fryers use a lot.

We have only had our battery full on a day once since the ending of daylight saving. This is because my boys had friends over and used a lot of electricity cooking up a treat.

The problem is if you start the day with nothing in the battery then it aint going to get full on the day. The KWs just don't have the same gusto behind them in winter.

Thus we are using electricity during the night when it is off-peak and in the morning when it isn't.

the 'peace'deal

 First a couple of informed comments

• Amin Saikal
• Fred Kaplan
• Tom Nicholls

There were a whole host of reasons given for this illegal war started by the USA. Lets go through them

1. Regime Change. Never occurred never looked like occurring and trump gave up on it very quickly.
2. No Nukes. How Iran could be sooo close to a nuke after the USA 'obliterated' their capacity was never addressed. This issue has been pushed down the road
3. Iran's support of terrorist groups. nothing has occurred on this front either. Indeed Iran has made it clear they want Israel to back off Hizbullah
4. Iran's missiles and drones. No-one but no-one has talked about this!

The only issue Trump has talked about is the freeing up of the strait of homuz. This was free of any trouble before trump started his disastrous war.

The Magnificent Socceroos

 That was easily the best performance I have seen from australia  playing football.

There was not a bad player on the field. The defence was tight with Soutar again showing his best performances are at the world cup. The midfield was hardworking and the attack always threatened on the breakaway. Bos showed absolute class on a number of occasions.

Almost all of Poppa's choices worked out well. Beach was superb, Okon strong with a brilliant through pass ( I confess I would not have had him in my squad!). His first substitution was mystifying and he was lucky turkey didn't score from his mistake.

Playing toure and Irankunda from the start paid off when the big I scored a very good goal.

I suspect neither will start against the USA but come on as subs.

I cannot wait for 5am on saturday.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention ONLY Harry Soutar had played in the world cup before!!

Around the Traps 12/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• inflection points on against-affordable-housing thanks nick
• Sam Roggeveen on sub-text thanks nick
• Jennifer Parker on why-is-australia-buying-used-submarines-a-naval-expert-answers-key-aukus-questions
• Chris Wallace on reform-is-hard-albanese-and-chalmers-need-to-stay-the-course
• Mark the Graph on capital-gains-tax-good-reform-or-bad , a-tour-of-microeconomics-of-housing
• Greg Jericho on australia-housing-house-prices-falling-data
• Kevin Bonham on independent-australia-worst-website-in-australian-politics

OZ Climate

• significant-milestone-off-grid-mine-runs-155-consecutive-hours-on-100-pct-renewables-and-engines-off 
  
• anatomy-of-a-renewable-finance-deal-developer-lands-equity-for-states-largest-solar-battery-hybrid
  
• solar-projects-to-be-hit-by-big-increase-in-costs-due-to-new-australian-anti-dumping-decision
  
• batteries-and-wind-are-crushing-evening-peak-prices-and-there-is-more-pain-to-come-for-gas-and-coal
  
• global-wind-giant-plans-to-plug-battery-storage-into-turbines-at-all-new-australian-projects-starting-in-nsw
  
• not-easy-australias-biggest-transmission-project-energised-after-delays-and-cost-overruns
  
• passive-home-batteries-deliver-enormous-benefit-to-the-grid-says-aemo-even-if-not-orchestrated-in-vpps
  
• big-and-small-batteries-fundamentally-changing-the-grid-and-its-planning-blueprint-says-aemo-boss
  
• i-would-like-to-see-a-change-in-behaviour-rule-maker-wants-retailers-to-act-before-it-has-to-intervene
  
• depleted-batteries-and-very-expensive-gas-how-a-two-day-heatwave-caused-near-doubling-of-quarterly-prices
  
• golden-moment-australias-biggest-wind-farm-becomes-first-to-reach-1-gw-of-output
  
• the-quiet-battery-what-household-batteries-reveal-about-flexibility-before-full-orchestration
  
• Chris Brack on are-australias-carbon-farming-schemes-just-hot-air-hardly-forests-are-regrowing-almost-everywhere
• Donna Lu on australia-rooftop-solar-panels-households-business
• Nick Toscano and Mike Foley on green-energy-is-shielding-australia-from-a-global-power-price-shock
• Timothy Neal and Ben Newell on climate-change-has-already-made-australians-in-one-state-much-poorer-and-mores-to-come
• Graham Readfearn on climate-crisis-science-emissions-good-news-corp-misrepresentation 
• Dennis Muller on a-right-mess-how-mining-media-and-politics-interests-are-combining-to-influence-public-debate-in-australia
• Alberto Meucci et al on good-news-for-renewables-southern-australias-offshore-winds-will-stay-strong-even-as-the-climate-changes

Northern America

• kruggers on comments-on-a-freaky-friday , a-gesture-of-contempt , money-and-machismo-are-undermining-america , breaking-the-heart-of-the-heartland , social-security-is-facing-a-political-crisis , elon-musk-human-ponzi-scheme
• David Frum on democrats-have-choose-between-character-and-power
• Hayes Brown on trump-irs-audit-ban-family-profits 
• Joshua Keating on trump-netanyahu-iran-war
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-israel-ukraine-war-foreign-policy , trump-iran-war-news-strikes-venezuela-oil
• the conversable economist on chair-jerome-powell-an-early-retrospective
• Michael Angeloni and Beau Tremitiere on year-later-military-personnel-police-american-streets
• Justin Glawe on trump-cognitive-impairment
• Noah Berlatsky on todd-blanche
• Stephen Robinson on trump-madness
• Dahlia Lithwick on todd-blanche-news-republicans-attorney-general-senate-hearing
• Clint Smith on black-military-patriots-hegseth
• John Quiggin on final-five-and-u-s-competitiveness
• dead for tax reasons on same-recession-opposite-jerseys
• Brad De Long on crosspost-renee-diresta-red-mirage-blue-shift-online-cope , so-far-inflations-return-limited-to-energy
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-callais-trump-doj-disparate-impact
• noahpinion on insurers-arent-the-main-villain-of-the-US-healthcare-system
• Brad De Long on earnings-sentiment-or-this-is-nuts , crosspost-arindrajit-dube-a-minimum-wage-experiment-has-beeb-happening-for-over-a-decade
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-kbj-amy-coney-barrett-congress
• Quinta Jurecic on trump-doj-judges-lawfare
• Alex Tabarrok on here-comes-the-sunscreen

Europe

• Charles Lane on oosterhoff-netherlands-teen-euthanasia thanks nick
• Ian Hill on armenia-the-next-ukraine
• noahpinion on why-europe-should-put-up-trade-barriers
• Anne Applebaum on ukraine-war-momentum-shift
• mainly macro on trends-in-uk-inequality-and-poverty
• Indrees Kahloon on uk-productivity-economy-reform-party
• Chris Dillow on what-bond-market-constraint

Asia

• Brad De Long on hormuz-trump-and-the-140bbl-question
• Mehdi Hasan on uk-us-champion-free-speech-war-palestine
• Amin Saikal on iran-dragged-out-the-1979-hostage-crisis-to-humiliate-the-us-it-may-try-to-do-the-same-to-trump-now
• Peter Chai on as-japans-popularity-booms-a-new-survey-shows-strong-anti-foreigner-sentiment
• Seong-Hyon Lee on xi-s-visit-to-pyongyang-did-not-revive-denuclearisation-diplomacy-it-buried-it
• Henry Storey on china-s-industrial-policy-confronts-fiscal-reality
• Andrew Arsan on unmaking-the-middle-east-what-really-went-wrong
• Khang Vu on xi-draws-a-line-on-north-korea-s-alliance-demands

Wonk

• institutional economics on mind-the-gaps
• equality by lot on the-deliberative-transformation thanks nick
• Thomas Lambert on i-failed-as-a-novelist thanks nick
• Tim Harford on chatbots-make-stuff-up-why-do-we-believe-them-anyway
• Tyler Cowen on is-work-from-home-bad-for-your-mental-health
• Brad De Long on thoughts-springing-from-ronald-meek
• Marta Khomyn on as-spacex-openai-and-anthropic-plan-blockbuster-launches-will-it-make-ai-giants-more-accountable
• Al Hynes on actually-the-un-is-broken-and-that-s-exactly-why-reform-matters
• Francisco Trujillo on i-used-sound-waves-to-make-espresso-it-could-cut-coffee-brewing-energy-use-by-75
• Mick Ryan on modern-war-and-the-systemic-learning-deficit-in-western-military-institutions
• home and away on bombs-away
• noahpinion on are-you-finally-ready-to-admit-its-the-phones
• the conversable economist on geoeconomics-and-rethinking-the-logic-of-trade

General

• Anna Goldsworthy on love-sex-and-intimacy-in-the-time-of-ai

Climate

• David Appell on el-nino-is-coming-on-strong
• ocean acidification on assessing-recent-anthropogenic-carbon-dioxide-and-acidification-in-the-ross-sea-antarctica
• Javier Vide on a-very-strong-el-nino-may-be-approaching-heres-what-it-could-mean-for-the-worlds-weather
• open mind on acceleration-in-the-lower-troposphere
• Kareen McVeigh on un-world-ocean-assessment-severe-stress-sea-level-rise-doubles-pollution-fishing-climate
• Luke Bennetts et al on how-waves-ponds-and-green-algae-are-accelerating-sea-ice-melt-in-antarctica
• skeptical science on how-many-people-does-heat-kill
• Jonathan Watts on record-winter-temperatures-in-antarctic-raise-fears-over-speed-of-climate-breakdown
• Eva Plaganyi and Laura Blamey on climate-change-is-causing-fish-to-move-to-cooler-water-but-what-if-their-escape-route-is-blocked
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-004-from-april
• open mind on co2-good-news-and-bad-news
• Graham Readfearn on antarcticas-west-coast-missing-an-area-of-sea-ice-the-size-of-france-as-temperatures-peak-20c-above-average

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• when-is-detecting-ai-generated-text-worthwhile
  
• scott-alexander-as-a-modern-day-edmund-wilson
  
• steins-method-learning-and-inference-or-how-to-really-monitor-convergence-and-thin-chains 
  
• naming-a-jail-after-a-convicted-criminal 
  
• survey-statistics-should-mrp-workflow-include-loco-cv
  
• from-a-message-i-sent-to-a-potential-co-blogger
  
• the-data-analysts-guide-to-cause-and-effect
  
• adjusting-for-nonrepresentativeness-in-continuous-norming-using-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification
  
• jazz-and-quantum-mechanics-eventually-dmitri-realized-that-they-are-kind-of-similar
  
• statschat on small-modular
• econometric sense on who-is-john-galt-second-handedness-ai
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-49-the-risk-of-story-telling-with-data

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• machines-are-not-the-enemy
  

Vox Wonk

• market-implied-inflation-expectations-during-iran-shock 
  
• us-consumer-savings-shale-gas 
  
• making-sense-conflicting-labour-market-signals
  
• why-some-digital-payment-systems-replace-cash-and-others-dont
  
• fighting-misinformation-truth-why-mainstream-news-matters-social-media
  
• pension-funds-unlisted-firms-and-europes-capital-markets-union 
  
• increasing-employment-pre-retirement-years-slows-cognitive-decline
  
• when-private-insurance-buys-faster-access-public-care
  

The next administration has a hellva job reforming the DOJ

 The DOJ has been severely degraded un Trump 2.0

 They have lost regularity and have been found to lie before judges and conduct grand juries in an unlawful way. Indeed it would not be uncommon for charged people to ask to see grand jury transcripts or ask that a magistrate judge examine them. Quite clearly the Lindsay Halligan incident was NOT a one-off.

Apparently the DOJ have lost around 10,000 in either sackings or resignations. Things have got so bad the DOJ have to offer financial incentives just to gain new graduates. The quality of people in the DOJ has naturally declined.

I could go on but I have no need to. The AG and DAG in the nest admisitration has a lot to do to get back experienced personnel back to the DOJ and political hacks out of the department. There has to be a concerted push to have people whose primary asset is what they know NOT who they know!

the energy market is changing

 David Leitch has a great article out today. It shows how the wholesale market is changing. ( It also indirectly show how much better we are off by having so much renewable energy. Imagine where prices would be if the climate denialists had their way. just look at europe).

Commercial and household batteries are changing demand and price! 

will One Nation's vote continue right up to the election ?

 A lot of people are talking about the rise of one nation's vote in the polls.

Let us be accurate however . This has mainly come at the expense of the Liberals and Nationals. Thus the question is will those disillusioned voters remain with one nation or eventually go back to the LNP.

Before the rise we could make the wholly generalised statement that one nation voters were not that smart. They like Hansson because she was like them. not very smart and not very eloquent.

However one cannot make that statement of the punters who have gone to one nation recently. I think we can assume a few things. yes they know a lot of one nation's policies are stupid BUT it seems what they do like is the party is firm on their policies even if they are daft and not costed..

Will these people go back to the LNP or stay with one nation. It depends. Certainly thus far one nation is particularly poor when pressed on policies even when they are clearly soft interviews. one can only speculate on what would happen when the interview is not soft. Of course they may not occur.

We should also be cognisant about the poor procedures one nation has for examining candidates and staff. They also indulge in a lot of in-fighting.

I suspect if only a bit of this occurs then the former LNP voters or a  majority of them will return to the fold. Of course as my wife frequently tells me I could be wrong.

the King's honours list

 This is a complete joke. As Nick Gruen said a long time ago these awards are given to most people for simply doing their job. Isn't that why they were paid?

enough said

Around the Traps 5/6/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Gary Mortimer et al on supermarkets-back-to-the-future
• Kelly Hine et al public-trust-in-australian-police-is-declining-covid-sparked-it-but-theres-more-to-the-story
• Toni Brakin on payday-super-is-coming-on-july-1-workers-will-be-thousands-of-dollars-better-off-long-term 
• Jonathan Barrett on property-prices-budget-negative-gearing-capital-gains-investors
• Saul Eslake on house-prices-falling-australia-sydney-melbourne-good-housing-basic-human-need 
• John Buchanan on almost-3-million-workers-will-get-a-4-75-pay-rise-in-july-but-wages-cant-catch-up-with-inflation
• Albert Palazzo on australia-has-been-the-victim-of-an-aukus-bait-and-switch
• Adrian Westerman on how-flu-overtook-covid-as-australias-deadliest-respiratory-virus 
• Emily Foley et al on hansons-gas-policy-follows-the-far-right-playbook-attack-elites-and-push-for-drilling
• Patrick Commins on one-nation-norway-gas-tax-plan-pauline-hanson 
• Greg Jericho on australia-datacentres-destroying-jobs-climate-economy-gdp
• Stella Huangfu on australias-economy-slows-as-households-tighten-their-belts-while-ai-investment-surges 
• Mark the Graph on q1-2026-gdp-soft-quarter-above-potential-year 
• Dorini Pojani on kerbside-parking-is-great-for-drivers-but-terrible-for-everyone-else-could-we-get-rid-of-it
• Jennifer Parker on aukus-virginia-class-switch-is-a-fix-not-a-failure
• Chris Sidoti on australia-response-to-israel-legal-obligation

OZ Climate

• proposal-for-high-fixed-network-charges-is-wrong-on-home-batteries-dynamic-pricing-and-impact-on-cer 
  
• pogroms-american-style 
  
• australias-spent-billions-on-renewable-gases-with-little-to-show-this-is-how-to-do-it-properly
  
• new-1660-mwh-battery-reaches-full-output-but-it-may-soon-have-a-new-owner 
  
• spot-prices-along-the-journey-to-a-competitively-priced-coal-free-grid-but-we-still-need-a-lot-of-wind 
  
• whats-the-difference-between-a-four-hour-battery-and-an-eight-hour-battery-not-a-lot-it-turns-out 
  
• stop-taxing-the-transition-why-fixed-network-charges-get-consumer-energy-resources-all-wrong
  
• households-still-going-big-on-solar-and-storage-but-new-battery-rebate-settings-calm-red-hot-market 
  
• the-kardashev-scale-australias-staggering-energy-transition-and-its-untapped-opportunity 
  
• what-is-the-value-of-energy-efficiency-and-flexible-demand-a-new-tool-will-help-us-find-out 
  
• ai-giant-choose-australias-first-100-pct-net-renewable-grid-to-build-countrys-biggest-data-centre 
• Graham Readfearn on gas-usage-australia-structural-decline 
• Ben Jefferson on australias-spent-billions-on-renewable-gases-with-little-to-show-this-is-how-to-do-it-properly
• Michael Vardon on how-much-water-and-power-will-ai-data-centres-use-in-australia-ironically-we-dont-have-the-data-to-know

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on canada-imminnent-recession
• noahpinion on america-needs-liberal-nationalism-back , im-kind-of-over-the-whole-anti-monopoly-movement
• Hayes Brown on doj-grand-jury-charges-misconduct
• Brad De Long on when-median-take-home-pay-packets-rise-once-in-a-generation
• Kruggers onlearning-from-a-mentally-ill-president , pogroms-american-style , stop-your-chirping , trump-has-given-up , illegal-tariffs-round-3 , america-the-inessential-nation
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-weaponization-fund-suspended-republicans
• David Frum on bill-pulte-hayek 
• the conversable economist on does-leniency-for-first-offenders-pay-off 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gerrymandering-allen-milligan-alabama-republicans , todd-blanche-attorney-general-trump-goon
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on sonia-sotomayor-exposes-supreme-court-lies 
• Jonathan Chait on trump-superficiality
• Jeet Heer on trump-july-4th-fair-cancellations
• Barbara McQuade on bill-pulte-intelligence-nomination-trump

Europe

• Kruggers on europe-versus-america-a-response  
• Brad De Long on paul-krugman-qui-bono-and , the-viking-raager-further-gels 
• mainly macro on immigration-numbers-and-media
• Chris Dillow on fetishising-fiscal-rules

Asia

• Jared Modschein on is-the-quad-dying-a-slow-death-even-with-trump-it-still-has-a-vital-role-to-play
• Beth Spacey on israeli-forces-capture-lebanons-beaufort-castle-a-crusade-era-site-once-held-by-the-knights-templar
• Hunter Marston on shangri-la-washington-southeast-asia-talked-past-each-other
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-peace-talks-off-what-next
• Asher Kaufman on in-iran-wars-shadow-israels-renewed-lebanon-campaign-risks-repeating-failed-lessons-and-occupations-of-the-past 
• Michele Burgis-Kasthala on is-israel-planning-to-reoccupy-the-gaza-strip-this-is-whats-happening-behind-the-yellow-line 
• Amy Crew on anwar-s-coalition-is-fracturing-and-the-islamist-opposition-is-waiting 
• Piper French on to-break-the-siege-gaza-flotilla 
• Ishaan Tharoor on the-iran-war-and-the-end-of-the-middle-east

Wonk

• autopoesis on on-and-against-agency thanks nick
• Felix Martin on open-source-spectre-haunts-ai-feast thanks nick 
• Alex Crary on philosophy-in-the-time-of-techno-fascism thanks nick 
• institutional economics on immigration-and-living-standards
• Katherine Te on critical-minerals-west-learning-wrong-lesson-china 
• Tim Harford on rage-in-the-age-of-x
• Brad De Long on mike-beggs-zombie-marx-partial-reading, the-transformation-problem-was-not-something-marx-overlooked
• Nicholas Bryan on aukus-sees-the-sea-not-everyone-will
• noahpinion on how-much-more-software-do-we-really-need
• David Peetz on politicians-have-long-misunderstood-the-working-class-the-rise-of-the-far-right-shows-how-mistaken-they-have-been
• Evan Bloom on antarctic-diplomacy-hits-another-iceberg

General

• Russell Bicknell and Julien Kumig on 500-million-year-old-fossil-helps-fill-a-strange-gap-in-our-record-of-life-on-earth 
• Kovi Rose on mysterious-signals-keep-coming-from-space-we-have-found-their-rosetta-stone

Climate

• exponential view on the-rooftop-revolution thanks nick
• real climate on the-arctic-council-is-not-dead
• Sharkar Sharma et al on cities-are-making-it-rain-more-but-not-as-much-as-scientists-thought
• ocean acidification on tropical-cyclones-may-soon-flip-from-releasing-carbon-to-absorbing-it
• Mohammed Rahman on trees-and-greenery-can-cool-cities-by-as-much-as-18-c-but-only-if-theyre-the-right-type
• skeptical science on solar-wind-evs-knocked-out-rcp85
• Timothy Raupach and Steven Sherwood on climate-change-may-shift-hailstorms-towards-earths-poles-new-study
• Katherine Hendy on extreme-weather-is-making-antarctic-research-harder-but-new-technology-is-providing-some-answers-new-study

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 15-new-articles-on-statistical-workflow
  
• rationally-turbulent-expectations
  
• noems-razor-and-why-i-think-the-concept-of-unintended-consequences-is-overrated 
  
• hey-its-more-plausible-than-the-hyperloop-or-the-idea-that-ufos-are-space-aliens 
  
• survey-statistics-it-is-still-the-people 
  
• epidemiologist-donna-spiegelman-sez-sutva-is-mostly-not-necessary-for-valid-causal-estimation-and-inference-most-of-the-time
  
• against-shallow-humanism
  
• old-posts-on-the-monkey-cage-blog
  
• Kaiser Fung on rearranging-deck-chairs

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Alex Tabarrok on 80000-hours-the-book
• Greg Mankiw on what-ive-been-reading
• Tyler Cowen on the-republic-of-love

Vox Wonk

• impact-geopolitical-risk-euro-area-economy-past-experience-and-future-prospects 
  
• literature-support-and-capabilities-autonomous-research-agents 
  
• transatlantic-divide-labours-share-income 
  
• global-minimum-tax-more-winners-losers-even-without-us
  
• europe-suffers-not-so-much-flight-savings-insufficient-allocation-equities 
  
• european-public-goods-european-safe-asset-pragmatic-roadmap 
  
• new-coins-block-digital-currencies-and-financial-system 
  
• what-we-lose-when-women-do-not-get-tenure-evidence-natural-experiment 
  
• cheaper-machines-costlier-buildings-drag-long-run-growth
  
• why-post-pandemic-us-immigration-surge-barely-moved-inflation 
  
• not-all-foreign-exchange-reserves-are-created-alike 
  
• early-takeoff-space-innovation
  

A tale of two wars

 I am going to repeat myself but I think it is worth it.

Ukraine/Russia

Putin invaded Ukraine based on false information. Being a dictator he was told what people thought he wanted to hear. This meant the 'three day 'war was always going to be a failure. Putin also dallied into military decision making which ended in failure because he only has experience in intelligence not the military. He thought using the vast population of russia ( and other countries) would allow victory. Like everyone else he did not foresee Ukraine mastery of drones ( and continued innovation) and learning from its mistakes and continuing to use new and better tactics. Consequently Ukraine is regaining ground and the russians are running out of ammunition, supplies and food particularly in crimea. People are moving away in doves. Putin moves more defensive assets there and Ukraine attack in the holes left.Meanwhile Ukraine successfully attack oil refineries etc that reduces its income.

Russia appears to be in a position of not being able to win anymore BUT Putin battles on in the hope he still can.

USA/Iran

Yet again the USA has been foiled by a nation in a asymmetric war. trump thought this would be a cakewalk after capturing Madura. Although warned of problems they were never said in full voice because like Putin people say to him what they believe he wants to hear. The only way for trump to get the results he spoke of is by boots on the ground BUT that will never happen if only because of the political consequences.

When an ending comes it won't be good for trump.There is the irony. He di this to get a political boost and instead got the opposite!

some TV shows and a film

 First TV

Shetland

This was an excellent show. A police dram set in Shetland. funny how winter never appeared though however once Jimmy left it lost its main character and it simply aint the same. the female replacement is not likable and you end up yearning to see Jimmy again.

Elsbeth

This started out as a quirky crime series with an equally quirky character but it has withered into boring. One problem is she aint attractive but she ends up with not one but two chick magnets over the series. This was simply not believable.

Matlock

This started out well and I like Kathy Bates but I simply have not watched the second series as I am not interested.

now Films

Hostiles

This is a western but a different western. The main character  played brilliantly by Christian Bales has his values changed. Beware it is violent but well worth a view. It is nine years old as a film.