Around the Traps 28/6/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on enjoy-wonderful-land-of-full-employment-while-you-can
• renew economy on finkel-australia-can-still-reach-its-82-pct-renewables-target-by-2030, transmission-tunnel-vision-theres-a-lot-of-space-for-wind-solar-and-batteries-on-local-networks, the-nonsense-rules-that-threaten-to-scupper-dozens-of-wind-and-solar-projects, wind-farm-noise-and-infrasound-do-not-affect-sleep-new-studies-say, energy-industry-loses-plot-again-as-greed-trumps-strategy-and-regulator-fails-consumers, bowen-kicks-off-capacity-scheme-with-doubling-of-nsw-battery-tender-to-replace-coal, 
• John Quiggin on we-need-to-decarbonise-our-electricity-supply-and-quickly-alan-finkel-shows-how-green-energy-can-be-a-reality-and-bring-economic-benefits
• Ameeta Jan on rent-freezes-and-rent-caps-will-only-worsen-not-solve-australias-rental-crisis
• Mark Kenny on vale-simon-crean-a-true-believer-in-the-labor-party
• James Dwyer on australia-is-not-giving-ukraine-the-military-support-it-needs-sending-our-retired-jets-would-be-a-start
• Rusty Langdon and Aalsa Dominish on we-could-need-6-times-more-of-the-minerals-used-for-renewables-and-batteries-how-can-we-avoid-a-huge-increase-in-mining-impacts
• croaking cassandra on the-10bn-amendment
• Adam Graycar on grave-misconduct-gladys-berejiklian-corruption-report-should-put-all-public-officials-on-notice
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-last-days-of-voice-ascendancy
• Amandine Dennis-Ryan and Jay Gordon on australia-needs-clear-national-energy-pathways-15degc-not-maze

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on recession-probabilities-based-on-multiple-financial-measures, does-the-fed-care-about-whats-going-on-in-the-rest-of-the-world, 
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-united-states-texas-ice-immigration-drew-tipton-brett-kavanaugh, supreme-court-moore-harper-john-roberts-independent-state-legislature-north-carolina-bush-gore, supreme-court-samuel-alito-groff-dejoy-religion-accomodations-workplace, supreme-court-affirmative-action-harvard-unc-students-fair-admissions-john-roberts
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on alito-private-jet-defense-supreme-court-hypocrisy
• Liz Zhou on trump-audio-indictment-documents
• Mark Stern on john-roberts-supreme-court-kavanaugh-barrett-allies
• Jeet Heer on leo-alito-court-curruption
• Adam Serwer on scotus-independent-state-legislature-moore-v-harper-decision
• noahopinion on the-end-of-the-vibecession, maximum-canada-is-happening
• Nathaniel Rackich on introducing-our-brand-new-polling-averages
• Dahlia Lithwick on ketanji-brown-jackson-dissent-supreme-court-colorblind
• Sherylinn Ifill on john-roberts-supreme-court-brown-v-board-of-education
• Sussan Glasser on why-donald-trump-was-so-mad-at-mark-milley-that-he-confessed-to-a-crime

Europe

• James Horncastle on what-the-wagner-group-revolt-in-russia-could-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine
• Tracey German on what-the-wagner-group-revolt-in-russia-could-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine
• Mathew Sussex on what-does-wagner-s-revolt-mean-future-russia, wagners-rebellion-may-have-been-thwarted-but-putin-has-never-looked-weaker-and-more-vulnerable
• Jen Kirby on wagner-group-russia-prigozhin-feud
• Ellen Ioannes on russia-wagner-group-moscow-putin-pregozhin-lukashenko
• Fred Kaplan on wagner-group-russia-coup-attempt-prigozhin-putin-control-slipping
• Anne Applebaum on putin-is-caught-in-his-own-trap
• Robert horwath and Isabella Currie on the-rise-of-yevgeny-prigozhin-how-a-one-time-food-caterer-became-vladimir-putins-biggest-threat
• Nicole Narea on lukashenko-russia-wagner-belarus-mutiny-prigozhin
• Liz Zhou on greek-elections-new-democracy-spartans
• Mainly Macro on wishful-thinking-on-uk-inflation

Asia

• David Brewster on after-meltdown-sri-lanka-s-strategic-options
• Joseph Webster on mongolia-middle-china-russia-may-split-over-allure-renewables
• Khang Vu on china-s-double-wedge-against-efforts-foster-vietnam-us-relations
• Radhey Tambi on balance-quad-equation-india-australia-must-drive-indo-focus
• Cheng Siwei and Denise Jia on local-chinese-governments-add-billions-to-multitrillion-dollar-hidden-debt-problem Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-neo-luddites-get-right-and-wrong-about-big-tech
• noahopinion on hey-tech-folks-the-west-is-not-failing
• Tyler Cowen on is-lab-leak-now-proven, is-a-two-percent-inflation-target-obsolete, how-is-gold-priced
• Natalie Wong et al on commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-francisco-to-hong-kong
• Menzie Chinn on inflation-across-some-countries
• the conversable economist on harry-markowitz-1927-1923-bringing-finance-into-economics
• Brad De Long on time-to-ride-or-die-for-larry-fink
• Francesca Lessa on fifty-years-after-the-uruguay-coup-why-so-few-people-have-been-brought-to-justice-for-dictatorship-crimes
• Menzie Chinn on the-predictive-power-of-the-yield-curve-factors-and-foreign-interest-rates-for-economic-activity-across-countries
• Cassandras Legacy on the-return-of-condottieri-mercenary
• Programmable Mutter on the-dsquared-approach-to-arguing Thanks Brad
• Oluwole Ojewale on wagner-debacle-in-russia-raises-red-flags-for-african-states-and-how-they-manage-their-security
• the conversable economist on biggest-economic-applications-of-generative-ai-mckinsey

General

• Aporia on embryo-selection-healthy-babies Thanks Tyler
• Tim Hinton on paracetamol-versus-ibuprofen-which-works-best-and-when
• Michael Taylor on what-do-the-different-colours-of-mould-mean-in-my-house
• David Turner and Matt Jewiss on the-ashes-how-england-crickets-head-coach-brendon-mccullum-developed-his-bazball-style
• Leo Roberts et al on cricket-commentators-love-to-talk-about-the-nervous-nineties-but-our-new-research-suggests-theres-no-such-thing
• Ali Hammoud on an-unbroken-covenant-with-god-what-the-hajj-means-for-muslims
• Daniel Huber on astronomers-puzzled-by-planet-that-shouldnt-exist
• Paul Crosby on why-are-taylor-swift-tickets-so-hard-to-get-the-economics-are-complicated

Climate

• Alexander Fraser et al on fractured-foundations-how-antarcticas-landfast-ice-is-dwindling-and-why-thats-bad-news
• and Then Theres Physics on criticism-of-economic-models
• David Appell on global-heat-wave-may-be-ending
• skeptical science on gas-stoves-even-worse-than-we-thought, at-a-glance-are-glaciers-advancing-or-retreating
• Benji Jones on deforestation-amazon-rainforest-palm-oil-cattle

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• on-that-weird-stereotype-about-jews-being-bad-at-spatial-reasoning
  
• scientists-correcting-past-mistakes-climate-oscillation-edition
  
• variation-over-time-is-more-relevant-than-within-sample-standard-errors
  
• they-came-in-through-the-window-the-migration-of-tech-hype-from-the-fringes-to-the-media-and-academic-mainstream
  
• workflow-for-robust-and-efficient-projection-predictive-inference
  
• if-the-nobel-prize-winners-and-the-bigshots-at-the-national-cancer-institute-are-doing-hype-on-the-daily-then-it-makes-sense-that-the-loser-wannabes-wannabe-bigshots-at-the-cleveland-clinic-and-the-s
  
• Freakometrics on mitigating discrimination in insurance with wasserstein barycentres, optimal vaccination policy
• Kaiser Fung on rat-czarina-claims-numbers-dont-lie

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• private-government
  
• Sam Roggeveen on what-i-am-watching-reading-listening

Vox wonk

• legacy-cryptocurrencies
  
• analysing-climate-change-policy-narratives-character-role-framework
  
• climate-policy-and-economic-inequality
  
• partial-ownership-financial-constraints-and-foreign-direct-investment
  
• role-geography-determining-inequality-between-italians
  
• climate-risk-stress-tests-underestimate-potential-financial-sector-losses
  
• unveiling-specialisation-trends-economics-research-large-scale-study-using-natural
  
• promoting-peace-not-pollution-insights-new-ebook
  
• funding-structures-and-resilience-shocks-after-decade-regulatory-reform
  
• how-gender-norms-are-perceived-across-world
  

The RBA should wait

The monthly CPI came out yesterday. Whilst the budget gave the ABS money so the monthly CPI should use the same means as the quarterly we have yet to see this unfortunately.

We can clearly say inflation is falling even given the limited data of the monthly CPI.  CBA economics reports the three month annualised CPI is 3.1% and the 6 moth annualised is 4.3%.

We should also remember the effect of rising interest rates has yet to affect the economy much as yet.

This means the RBA should cool it and leave rates where they are. Nothing would be so foolish as to put up rates now only to cut them later this year or early next year.

What should we be sending Ukraine?

 James Dwyer has a very good article in the conversation about this very topic.

He makes the point F/A-18s would be very good for Ukraine indeed they have a number of advantages over F-16s.

We need to support Ukraine over russia. See Ian Hill and extrapolate.

It occurs to this person without a grain of military experience that the above planes are essential but also give them missiles to strike Russia. The only reason Russia do it to Ukraine is because Ukraine has nno come back. Imagine Russia's reaction to Ukraine who might say to every missile on our country we will have a missile strike on russia!!

Two things of note that ukraine had done. They take the new technology and use it expertly much faster than anyone thought they could. corruption has also reduced a lot  unlike Russia.  It appears most in Ukraine think beating russia is the main game in town. What happens after this we do not know. wil lthey imitate russia again or  become westernised? 

Simon Crean

 Simon Crean dies in Germany on the weekend. Mark Kenny writes about him.

My recollections about him was he was very much a hail fellow well met sort of guy. He was equally at home at the football or the opera. He was also a natty dresser who possessed an impressive wine cellar and knowledge of wine ( as did communist John Halfpenny!!)

He was one of the first university educated trade union officials. I do remember him talking at the conference of economists in Canberra where one Max Walsh was visibly impressed as was I.

He was beaten by Clyde Holding to succeed his father in parliament.That was both exante and expost a stupid decision.

He was never a backbencher and was very competent in all the ministries he was in. When Keating was beaten badly he thrived in opposition gathering several scalps and embarrassing John Howard badly.

He was  the only Opposition Leader not to lead the ALP to an election. This was because as Pter Brent stated because Newspoll back then di not do 2PP figures. This an unflattering who is the better leader figures ( which almost always favour the government leader) led the innumerate caucus to replace him with Mark Latham.

The only criticism I can make is why oh why di he take a job when he quit parliament? his pension was not taxed , one of costello's bad blunders, so he clearly di not need the money and surely he could have given his family more time.

Oh dear how dis I forget he was right on Iraq!

What is happening in Russia

 I have no idea but here is some articles on the situation

• James Horncastle on what-the-wagner-group-revolt-in-russia-could-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine
• Tracey German on what-the-wagner-group-revolt-in-russia-could-mean-for-the-war-in-ukraine
• Mathew Sussex on what-does-wagner-s-revolt-mean-future-russia, wagners-rebellion-may-have-been-thwarted-but-putin-has-never-looked-weaker-and-more-vulnerable
• Jen Kirby on wagner-group-russia-prigozhin-feud
• Ellen Ioannes on russia-wagner-group-moscow-putin-pregozhin-lukashenko
• Fred Kaplan on wagner-group-russia-coup-attempt-prigozhin-putin-control-slipping
• Anne Applebaum on putin-is-caught-in-his-own-trap

Added bonus

Ian Hill on russia-s-invasion-ukraine-why-why-now

Around the Traps 21/6/23

 it is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dennis Muller on a-reciprocating-engine-of-money-power-and-influence-how-australias-media-monsters-used-journalism-to-cement-their-empires
• Mark Humphrey-Jenner on tired-of-shrinking-pay-the-real-drain-on-australians-productivity-is-falling-wages
• Ross Gittins on maybe-lowe-should-stay-on-as-governor
• renew economy on agl-adds-three-more-big-batteries-concedes-gas-demand-will-fall-even-with-coal-exit, imagine-the-outcry-if-factories-killed-as-many-people-as-wood-heaters, australias-biggest-wind-precinct-hit-by-connection-delays-and-cost-blowout, why-eight-hour-batteries-are-smarter-choice-than-pumped-hydro-for-queensland, electrified-homes-are-paying-for-the-gas-death-spiral, neoen-and-tesla-to-build-giant-four-hour-battery-in-landmark-deal-to-flatten-solar-duck, not-fast-enough-aemo-says-renewable-pipeline-is-huge-but-stuck-at-the-gates, batteries-are-a-good-replacement-for-coal-utility-unveils-another-2000mwh-big-battery, we-need-more-batteries-networks-look-beyond-poles-and-wires-for-cheaper-smarter-options, we-must-move-quickly-cefc-gets-20bn-to-put-renewable-transition-back-on-track
• Dan Andrews on 1-in-5-australian-workers-have-non-compete-clauses-making-it-harder-to-get-better-paid-jobs-new-survey
• Ross Gittins on my-version-of-how-net-zero-will-change-us
• croaking cassandra on revisiting-a-couple-of-old-charts, mendacity
• Tess Parker on why-is-it-so-damn-cold-right-now-a-weather-researcher-explains
• Donald Rothwell on the-international-criminal-court-is-unlikely-to-prosecute-alleged-australian-war-crimes-heres-why
• Peter Hannan on rba-reserve-bank-australia-unemployment-inflation

Northern America

• Alex Shepherd on turns-indicted-not-good-donald-trump Thanks Brad
• Matt Levine on regional-banks-don-t-feel-loved Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on core inflation has had its day. It is time to move on  Thanks Brad
• Fabiola Cineas on republican-attack-higher-education
• noahopinion on did-tech-bros-ruin-san-francisco
• the conversable economist on looking-back-at-the-supply-chain-woes , why-are-the-recent-us-bank-runs-so-much-faster, helping-the-neighborhood-by-charging-for-parking, nations-report-card-test-scores-sink-for-13-year-olds
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-seeking-sustainability-in-u-s-debt, the-term-spread-1970-2023m06
• Jacob Knudson on us-power-grid-climate-change-extreme-weather-electricity
• Liz Zhou on trump-bret-baier-fox-news-indictment-documents, supreme-court-samuel-alito-luxury-fishing-trip-propublica-wsj-ethics-problem
• Andrew Prokop on hunter-biden-investigation-taxes-indictment
• Dahlia Lithwick on gop-stepping-back-from-brink, justice-alito-fishing-trip-real-prize
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on donald-trump-conservative-political-positions-incoherent
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on samuel-alito-clarence-thomas-supreme-court-ethics
• Robin Kelley on the-long-war-on-black-studies
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-innocent-jones-hendrix-clarence-thomas-habeas
• Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux on dobbs-abortion-opinion-liability-republicans
• Sarah Jones and Jason Eastley on scotus-for-sale-samuel-alito-is-the Thanks Brad

Europe

• Tim Harford on when-wizz-air-wrecked-the-immigration-stats
• Mainly Macro on sunak-is-right-to-fear-the-covid-public-inquiry
• Jeet Heer on nord-stream-cia-ukraine
• Ian Hill on russia-s-invasion-ukraine-why-why-now
• Lawrence Summers et al on other-counteroffensive-save-ukraine Thanks Brad

Asia

• Robert Whitoul on does-china-wield-excessive-influence-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank
• Sojin Lim on north-korea-fears-of-a-new-famine-after-three-years-of-covid-isolation-and-harsh-repression
• Aarti Betigeri on will-modi-charm-again-washington
• Benjamin Silberstein on build-wall-kim-jong-un-s-social-revolution
• Linette Lopez on china-debt-economy-implode-stock-market-wall-street-xi-jinping Thanks Brad
• Rishi Gupta on gorkha-s-place-india-s-history-about-change
• David Brewster on why-pakistan-crisis-spells-trouble-our-region
• Zack Beauchamp on india-democracy-narendra-modi-us-biden-china
• noahopinion on four-reasons-china-cant-reset-the-world

Wonk

• Tim Harcourt on ashes-rivalry-is-as-alive-as-ever-but-when-it-comes-to-the-economics-of-cricket-india-is-in-the-box-seat
• Margaret MacMillan on ukraine/how-wars-dont-end
• counting atoms on the-rhetorical-power-of-meritocracy Thanks Brad
• David Goodman on china-and-the-us-are-talking-again-so-where-does-the-relationship-go-from-here
• Brad DeLong and Noah Smith on podcast-hexapodia-is-e-key-insight
• John Hawkins on new-data-proves-almost-no-one-uses-bitcoin-as-currency-its-actually-more-like-gambling
• Arthur Grimes on who-benefits-most-from-the-protection-of-free-speech-the-haves-or-the-have-nots
• Kristi Flannery on disaster-opulence-and-the-merciless-ocean-why-the-titanic-disaster-continues-to-enthral
• Frederic Wehrey on in-the-cave-of-the-rebel-massacre
• noahopinion on why-its-so-hard-to-fix-the-information-ecosystem

General

• Jonathan Biteau on why-is-the-sky-dark-at-night-the-200-year-history-of-a-question-that-transformed-our-understanding-of-the-universe
• Stefan Williams on missing-titanic-sub-what-are-submersibles-how-do-they-communicate-and-what-may-have-gone-wrong
• Adam Estes et al on titanic-submarine-missing-oceangate-titan-submersible-search-efforts-updates

Climate

• Met office on sea-surface-temperatures-breaking-records
• Sreeja Biswas on rapidly-melting-glaciers-on-world-s-highest-mountains-risk-a-quarter-of-humanity Thanks Brad
• Rachael Ramirez on world/four-climate-charts-extreme-weather-heat-oceans Thanks Brad
• Mark Gongloff on climate-heat-records-are-falling-maybe-a-little-panic-is-due Thanks Brad
• Steve Turton on global-average-sea-and-air-temperatures-are-spiking-in-2023-before-el-nino-has-fully-arrived-we-should-be-very-concerned
• sceptical science on at-a-glance-gore
• Peter Sinclair on insane-astonishing-jet-stream-leaves-scientists-at-a-loss-for-words
• Met Office on the-science-of-linking-climate-change-to-extreme-weather-events
• Rabett run on which-came-first-or-beyond-correlation
• science of doom on natural-variability-attribution-and-climate-models-5
• Gretti Peci on marine-species-are-being-pushed-towards-the-poles-from-dugong-to-octopuses-here-are-8-marine-species-you-might-spot-in-new-places
• renew economy on ocean-heat-is-off-the-charts-what-it-means-for-humans-and-ecosystems-around-the-world

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• its-harvard-time-baby-that-thing-where-well-connected-policy-advocates-cant-handle-criticism-and-call-it-stasi-or-censorship
  
• social-experiments-and-the-often-neglected-role-of-theory
  
• can-visualization-alleviate-dichotomous-thinking-some-experimental-evidence
  
• should-we-publish-every-correlation-during-the-covid-19-pandemic
  
• ted-talking-data-fakers-who-write-books-about-lying-and-rule-breaking-whats-up-with-that
  
• here-are-some-ways-of-making-your-study-replicable-no-its-not-what-you-think
  
• its-worse-than-it-sounds-passive-corruption-in-the-social-sciences
  
• statschat on looking-for-chatgpt-again
• Adrian Barnett on scientific-fraud-is-rising-and-automated-systems-wont-stop-it-we-need-research-detectives
• Freakometrics on fairness in multi-task learning via wasserstein barycenters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Daniel Flitton on what-i-m-reading-watching-listening
• John Quiggin on what-im-reading-the-consolation-2

Vox Wonk

• murphys-law-versus-luck-irish-disparate-treatment-irish-19th-century-courts
  
• place-based-policies-opportunities-deprived-schools-versus-zone-and-shame-effects
  
• pension-system-unsustainability-and-fiscal-constraints-comparative-analysis-0
  
• higher-minimum-wages-and-mixed-effects-health
  
• market-view-what-prices-credit-default-swaps-imply-about-macroprudential-bank-buffers
  
• how-deep-trade-agreements-shape-non-trade-outcomes-new-ebook
  
• economic-effects-military-support-ukraine-evidence-fiscal-multipliers-donor-countries
  
• impact-artificial-intelligence-growth-and-employment
  
• income-windfalls-and-overweight
  
• ukraine-invasion-and-energy-crisis-comparative-advantages-equity-valuations
  
• competition-and-pass-through-lessons-greek-islands
  

Hunter Biden

 Is there different treatment for Hunter Biden?

He is pleading guilty to buying a gun whilst on drugs and paying his taxes late. He could have fought both cases. his 2nd amendment rights might have got him over the lone ( absurdly) in the first case and very few people are prospected for paying their taxes in full but late.

So yes he was treated differently. if his name was jones it is possible there would have been no cases at all!

 Let us remember it was Bill Barr who appointed the attorney to examine this case and Garland did not attempt to change this.

I am amused by the so-called biden bribery scandal. We had Grassley saying there were audio tapes of both Biden and his father accepting ( $5m each) bribes on tape. A few problems. He had not heard them sso he does not know whether any of the tapes exist. If the person had the tapes why not have one of them heard just to show he di have some tapes?

Why was he allegedly attempting to bribe the Bidens. What could Hunter biden bring to the party. How di he have the power to invite biden onto the board? Why invite him onto the board? It does create some mess in attempting to bribe.

Why would Biden ( VP) gat rid of a crooked prosecutor ( who it must be said both the EU and the IMF ( both strong donors to Ukraine) wanted to be sacked as well? Afterall it would be better and easier to have a crook 'examining' the company than a cleanskin!

I could go on but if Hunter Biden is so stupid as to not get decent accounting advice on earning foreign income then how in the hell was he going to hide $5m?

Farce on farce

Australian Sport

 A game of football and then cricket so let us review

Arnieroos V Argentina

We lost 2-0 which was not unexpected but we showed a lot of promise. The fullbacks were good. The central defence was tight. Harry Soutar these days grows another leg when playing for the national side.

The midfield showed promise with McGree looking quite good.

What I found strange was the selection of Duke ( Borrello quicker and fitter than Duke should have played from the start) McLaren who simply vanished at a national level and Leckie who simply ha lost his pace these days.

Arnie has a lot of potential in his squad which fills me with hope but two things need to occur for that potential to be brought to fulfillment.

1. Their coaches need to bring their potential to the surface. Arnie cannot really do this being a national coach
2. They need to make the right decision on where to play. Too many players have made dud decions on where to play and thus fell away.

First Ashes test 

The pitch was terrible but the players or should I say the pooms made a match of it. They declared when perhaps they should not have and then were too lax in their bating in the 2nd innings.

The ball really did not swing consistently.  Too many of our batsmen showed they were uncomfortable to a rising ball from Broad or Robinson who are not quick. boland was our quickest bowler ( ?) and the poms took to him. Cummins showed his weaknesses as a captain.

What will occur when Wood bowls and maybe even Overton ( the fast bowler). Stokes shos genius sometime as a captain. If ali cannot play next test who will be their spinner? both anderson and Baistow as a WK showed they were quite rusty.

An exciting test on a terrible surface. Bazball has made test cricket a must watch.

For Lords I would switch Starc for Boland. Beware though he could go for a lot but reduces the tail somewhat.

I would bring in Wood for England. There are people who want Foakes ( who I think is the best WK in the world) to keep and open the batting. I would not do that as yet.

Let me be blunt. Bazball made this test great. Without it we would have gotten a boring draw. flat tracks should be banned.

l

Why Trump would be even worse if he become President.

 Trump was hopeless as President.  The Whitehouse was in chaos most of the time and there were few adults around in decision making roles and they were mostly replaced.

That would be bad enough but it becomes much worse.

When Trump falsely claimed voter fraud ( he lost 62-0 in the courts with one Judge saying you need evidence!) this was imitated overseas. Myanmar is possibly the best known example.

However Trump is now saying he will sack anyone who was invovled in investgating his crimes. This is why his team wanted the names of the people involved. He thinks he can appoint a special prosecutor.

Even if his Attorney General does appoint one to 'investigate the Bidens' it is likely we would get another Durham report because of a lack of evidence.

This is not the point. Because Trump is stupid he does not realise that governments overseas would replicate this and achieve much better results with a compliant judiciary. ( Russia anybody)

The USA would change from being the beacon of light in democracy to showing any nation the path to authoritarianism.

Van , Thorpe and the rest

 Steve from Brisbane has written about this so I will only add to it in a minor way.

First of all when Thorpe raised the matter few gave it much thought as Thorpe has justifiable little credibility.

When Stoker made her allegations then things changed for two reasons. She was a woman but more importantly she was from the Liberal party. to say as Thorpe has done the allegations were onlt taken seriously when a white woman said something and it was therefore racist merely shows Thorpe has no idea of what racism is.

Dutton also said he had been given another allegation which led him to say Van should resign.

We should also bear in mind Dutton does need evidence to the extent it is beyond a reasonable doubt to call on him to resign. We do need to know whether Van is a problem or not however now Van has resigned from the Liberal party this is not possible. This is all convenient to Van who will remain a senator until the next election. Hmmm

Around the Traps 15/6/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on consumerism-and-social-status-keep-our-noses-to-the-grindstone, grim-reaper-is-catching-up-with-baby-boomers
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-polling-yes-vote-keeps-on-falling
• renew economy on wind-farms-set-new-output-record-in-australias-main-grid-for-first-time-in-2023, hydrogens-dirty-secret-leaks-could-have-12-times-impact-on-global-warming-than-co2, australia-needs-1-5c-target-to-break-regulatory-deadlock-and-kick-coal-out-of-grid, coal-outages-strike-across-two-states-as-power-prices-march-up, truly-momentous-solar-is-changing-everything-and-australia-must-seize-the-occasion, day-for-history-books-hazelwood-big-battery-first-to-be-built-at-site-of-a-former-coal-generator, the-investment-test-for-electricity-transmission-has-become-a-sham, big-batteries-storm-the-fossil-fuel-citadels-and-spell-the-end-for-coal-and-gas
• James Wood et al on were-in-another-covid-wave-but-its-not-like-the-others
• Croaking Cassandra on land-value-rating-for-wellington
• Peter Martin on dont-blame-workers-for-falling-productivity-were-not-the-ones-holding-it-back
• Dean Askeilowisz and Paul Taucher on stripping-medals-from-soldiers-is-murky-territory-and-must-not-distract-from-investigating-alleged-war-crimes
• Tom Sanzillo on australian-taxpayers-face-big-bills-flawed-northern-territory-industrial-development-plan

Northern America

• the overshoot on greedflation-and-the-profits-equation Thanks Brad
• Gabriel Chin on trump-indictment-unsealed-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-what-the-charges-mean-and-what-prosecutors-will-now-need-to-prove
• Ellen Ioannes on mccarthy-gop-house-freedom-caucus
• calculated risk on why-year-over-year-headline-inflation-will-decline-sharply-in-may-and-june
• Chris Anstey on fed-rates-latest-inflation-hop-policy-skip-may-set-dissent-jump Thanks Brad
• Jared Mondschein on yes-federal-charges-against-a-former-president-are-unprecedented-but-so-is-trumps-political-power
• Brad De Long on good-headline-disappointing-core
• new deal democrat on properly-measured-inflation-is-no-longer-a-significant-issue
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04%
• Emma Shortis on for-joe-biden-the-indictment-of-donald-trump-carries-a-heavy-responsibility-and-a-risk
• Nicole Narea and Liz Zhou on trump-miami-arrest-arraignment-classified-documents-indictment, trump-jail-criminal-indictment-explained-espionage-cannon
• Ian Millhiser on aileen-cannon-donald-trump-jack-smith-indictment-mar-a-lago-maga, supreme-court-indian-child-welfare-haaland-brackeen-amy-coney-barrett
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-indictment-reveals-two-americas
• Cooper Burton on supreme-court-approval-rating-polls
• the grumpy economist on the-barn-door
• Menzie Chinn on may-2023-inflation-various-measures-horizons
• Robby Soave on trump-indictment-documents-classified-espionage Thanks Brad
• Nicole Narea on trump-biden-clinton-pence-sock-document-case
• Fintan O'toole on the-ultimate-deal
• noahopinion on heat-pumps-heat-pumps-heat-pumps
• the conversable economist on remote-sales-tax-on-e-commerce-purchases-from-other-states, update-on-us-budget-deficits-if-anyone-cares
• Ved Shinde on washington-s-difficult-dance-middle-east
• Connor O'Brien on us-industrial-policy-headed-wrong-direction
• Amelia Thomson-Deveaux on abortion-trend-after-dobbs
• Oliver Willis on conservatives-arent-like-normal-americans Thanks Brad
• Brody Mullins on republicans-corporations-donations-pacs Thanks Brad

Europe

• Yuriv Dorodnichenko and Ilona Sologoub on ukraine-russia-culture-war-gessen-pen-resignation Thanks Brad
• Jen Kirby on russia-ukraine-war-counteroffensive-begins-explained
• Andrea Gill on silvio-berlusconi-the-property-developer-who-became-a-media-tycoon-and-italys-most-flamboyant-prime-minister
• Mainly Macro on the-campaign-against-labour-borrowing-to-invest
• Paul Whitely on boris-johnson-resignation-why-rishi-sunak-cant-afford-to-lose-more-than-one-of-three-impending-byelections
• Keith Gessen on how-the-west-lost-the-peace-philipp-ther-book-review
• stumbling and mumbling on the-joyless-polity
• Rachel Sanderson on silvio-berlusconi-wrote-the-playbook-for-the-modern-populist Thanks Brad

Asia

• Cherry Hitkari on shangri-la-missed-chance-us-china-dialogue
• Gareth Evans on the-case-for-recognising-palestine
• Nikola Mikovic on russia-s-ally-kazakhstan-turns-eyes-west
• Gabriela Bernal on it-s-time-south-korea-refocus-multilateral-diplomacy

Wonk

• BDM on the-romance-of-the-grift Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on the-cheese-the-rats-and-why-some-of-us-are-poorer-than-others
• noahopinion on price-controls-too-early-for-a-victory-lap, why-trying-to-shape-ai-innovation-to-proyect-workers-is-a-bad-idea, heterodox-vs-mainstream-macroeconomics
• Stephen Grenville on end-neo-liberal-order
• the grumpy economist on papers-dew-becker-on-networks
• renew economy on world-must-add-1-5tw-of-new-wind-and-solar-each-year-to-keep-to-1-5c-of-warming, solar-pushes-global-grid-to-cascading-tipping-points-and-puts-science-targets-within-reach, 
• Menzie Chinn on term-spread-inversion-and-non-inversions
• Tyler Cowen on game-theory-and-the-first-world-war, what-is-the-optimistic-case-for-kenya
• Lant Pritchett on what-i-as-a-development-economist-have-been-actively-for Thanks Brad

General

• Nathan Brownlowe on has-a-mathematician-solved-the-invariant-subspace-problem-and-what-does-that-even-mean
• Kira Westaway et al on bones-the-cave-of-the-monkeys-and-86-000-years-of-history-new-evidence-pushes-back-the-timing-of-human-arrival-in-southeast-asia
• Laura Mc Kemmish et al on for-the-first-time-astronomers-have-found-life-supporting-molecules-called-phosphates-on-enceladus

Climate

• Peter Sinclair on comparing-solar-and-fossil-eroi-good-and-getting-better
• the conversable economist on what-permits-are-needed-for-a-new-electricity-transmission-line
• Timothy Naish on antarctic-tipping-points-the-irreversible-changes-to-come-if-we-fail-to-keep-warming-below-2
• Moyhu on giss-may-global-temperature-down-by-0.06-from-april

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-cigarettes-and-cocaine-argument
  
• r-and-oop-anti-patterns
  
• evil-spammers-waste-our-time
  
• joe-simmons-leif-nelson-and-uri-simonsohn-agree-with-us-regarding-the-much-publicized-but-implausible-and-unsubstantiated-claims-of-huge-effects-from-nudge-interventions
  
• the-loneliest-kind-of-lonely
  
• the-three-ages-of-i
  
• ai-as-wiley-e-coyote-and-a-funny-thing-about-worstfish
  
• explaining-the-horribly-wasteful-u-s-heath-care-system-as-a-combination-of-rich-countries-spend-more-on-health-care-and-diminishing-returns-to-health-care-spending
  
• fake-data-scandal-in-basketball
  
• bayes-is-guaranteed-to-overfit-what-does-this-mean-theres-a-factor-of-2-here
  
• statschat on 72%-of-landlords
• Kaiser Fung on uninsightful-by-design

Dianne Coyle

• the-material-roots-of-the-weightless
  
• so-you-want-to-be-an-economist
  
• global inequality on americas-adam-smith Thanks Brad
• Tyler Cowen on medieval-horizons-why-the-middle-ages-matter, the-economic-government-of-the-world-1933-2023
• Alex Tabarrok on plagues-upon-the-earth

Vox Wonk

• value-diversity-equity-and-inclusion
  
• electoral-earthquakes-local-shocks-and-authoritarian-voting
  
• inflation-covid-demand-or-supply
  
• fostering-sustainable-digital-transformation
  
• public-backstops-during-crises-2022-2023
  
• reconstruction-aid-ukraine-what-we-know-or-should-know-history-assistance-eastern
  
• constructing-novel-datasets-chatgpt-opportunities-and-limitations
  
• world-our-oyster-academic-migration-theory-and-practice
  
• prices-crises
  

recognising Palestine

 Gareth Evans  is quite easily our finest foreign minister in recent times. No-one else could have started the International Crisis Group and have the same organisation have such credibility but for his intellect, energy and ambition.

He writes a compelling article the-case-for-recognising-palestine

Gallagher should go

 Kate Gallagher is being fat too cute. She is using Linda Reynolds poor wording  ( my word she is a poor politician) to get out of not misleading parliament.

Her excuse does not pass the pub test. Anyone listening to that senate committee would have assumes she was stating she di not know anything about the alleged rape.  This was false. It appears Albo's standards are no different to any other leader!

Whilst we are talking about this issue the people who leaked the texts should be made known and arrested.  They have done untold harm. what wwoman would go to the police to say she has been raped when her texts could be leaked/ 

This is a disgrace.

the World Test Championship

 I am not a fan of these matches. I love test cricket but not one-offs.

Having said that it was a match Australia was always going to win easily for two reasons.

1. It picked the wrong side. Pandya who can swing the ball both ways and bat and Ashwin a spinner who can win a test should have played. Yadav most certainly should not have as he is not a test bowler. Thakur is useful but not as good as Panya for a one-off match.
2. India's much vaunted batting lineup again failed to deliver

From an Australian perspective we found out both Starc and Cummins were short of a gallop. Cummins will get better BUT it is debatable whether Starc will. When neither he nor Cummins can bowl faster than Boland we have a problem.

Our key batsmen were susceptible to short pitched bowling and Siraj is not fast. We are lucky that the poms have only one fit fast bowler Wood and he won't play 5 tests in 6 weeks.

The key to the Ashes is will the pommy batsmen put too much pressure on our bowlers or will they buckle?

Make Gaol great again!

 Donald Trump has been indicted again by a GRAND JURY. He is in a load of trouble. Unlike his last indictment ( debateable)  this indictment cannot be said to have occurred simply because he is Donald Trump. 

The unsealed indictment is devastating. When even Jonathon Turley and Bill Barr say Trump is in depp dooda you know he is in trouble.

For all his wealth Trump has trouble getting half decent lawyers. He is bad at paying them and he is a poor client.

Trump as has been said before is a terrible witness. This means he won't go on the stand. A Judge even allowed the special counsel to interview his lawyer and waive his client's privilege because there must have been evidence Trump was attempting to get him to do something illegal. His lawyer is a witness!

The best thing here is that even a former president can be charged if there is sufficient evidence!

The potential indictment in Georgia is quite important

I should make two points.

If this was a political withunt, a stitch up or the Justice Department being weaponised then two things follow:

1. It would be easy to defend against
2. It follows from this the charges would be easy to deny. In fact the opposite has been the case. NO defender of trump have laid a glove on the charges. tob quote Barr if only half the evidence is true then he is toast!

Around the Traps 8/6/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• David Roche on using-electric-water-heaters-to-store-renewable-energy-could-do-the-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-us-billions
• Marrk Kenny on labor-and-the-greens-dont-get-along-heres-why
• Ross Gittins on business-cries-poor-on-wages-even-as-profits-increase, its-not-wolf-at-door-thats-driving-woen-to-work-harder
• renew economy on australias-first-2gwh-battery-is-aimed-at-eliminating-a-very-big-solar-duck-curve, coal-in-nsw-could-be-squeezed-out-by-end-of-decade-but-the-timelines-are-tight, coal-generator-fined-for-lousy-response-to-coal-plant-explosion-that-rocked-the-grid, marinus-link-gets-nudge-along-as-cost-determinations-begin, electric-water-heaters-could-do-work-of-2-million-home-batteries-and-save-billions,too-big-to-fail-why-canberra-will-back-snowy-despite-delays-and-cost-blowouts, rooftop-solar-sales-rebound-as-households-brace-for-another-power-price-shock, why-solar-panels-should-be-reused-and-not-shredded-for-bricks-and-concrete, how-smashing-transmission-monopoly-could-slash-13-billion-from-grid-costs, graph-of-the-day-solar-is-creating-fastest-energy-change-in-history, new-origin-owner-may-outspend-andrew-forrest-in-australias-biggest-renewables-play-heres-how,
• Brendan Coates et al on labor-plans-to-stamp-out-the-exploitation-of-migrant-workers-but-it-wont-succeed-until-we-treat-it-like-tax-avoidance
• Kit Messham-Muir on what-should-the-australian-war-memorial-do-with-its-heroic-portraits-of-ben-roberts-smith
• David Peetz on dont-blame-australias-lowest-paid-workers-if-interest-rates-rise-again
• David Hamer and Andrew Dyer on kathleen-folbigg-pardon-shows-australia-needs-a-dedicated-body-to-investigate-wrongful-convictions
• Peter Martin on why-reserve-bank-governor-philip-lowe-wants-to-damage-the-economy-further
• Greg Jericho on the-economy-is-slowing-yet-the-rba-seems-desperate-to-ensure-this-is-as-good-as-it-gets-for-a-long-time
• Gemma Beale on business-is-trying-to-scare-us-about-same-job-same-pay-but-the-proposal-isnt-scary
• Helen Dickinson on how-reliance-on-consultancy-firms-like-pwc-undermines-the-capacity-of-governments
• John Hawkins on going-down-the-6-graphs-that-show-australias-economic-growth-shrinking
• Richard Mulgan on blacklisting-pwc-wont-stop-outsourcing-here-are-3-reasons-it-has-become-embedded-in-the-australian-public-service
• Dylan McConnell and Iain MacGill on an-el-nino-looms-over-australias-stressed-electricity-system-and-we-must-plan-for-the-worst
• Rodger Shanahan on australias-military-should-be-held-to-account-but-its-the-individual-soldier-who-pulls-the-trigger

Northern America

• Matt Levine on banks-got-rising-rates-wrong Thanks Brad
• Drezners World on cnn-and-the-inventory-problem Thanks Brad
• the blindspot on error-alert-a-key-formula-that-underpins-bank-stability-may-be-acting-up Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on inflation-a-decomposition, the-budget-balance-to-gdp-ratio-actual-cyclically-adjusted
• Ellen Ioannes on georgia-trump-investigation-rico
• Amair Irfan on state-farm-california-climate-change-insurance-wildfire-florida-flood
• Dennis Aftergut on trump-fail-classified-documents-defense-recording
• noahopinion on in-which-david-sacks-and-balaji-raise-false-alarms-about-the-jobs-numbers, at-least-five-interesting-things-to-start-the-week
• Brad De Long on can-america-escape-its-second-gilded-age
• Nathan Boney on climate-change-homeowners-insurance-state-farm-california-florida
• the grumpy economist on work-requirements
• the conversable economist on was-bailing-out-the-silicon-valley-bank-depositors-the-right-decision, antitrust-dilatancy-before-the-earthquake
• Kereen Landman on wildfire-canada-air-quality-smoke-asthma-copd-lung-heart-disease
• Mark Stern on clarence-thomas-guns-ruling-biden-obama-judge
• Ruth Franklin on the-millions-we-failed-to-save-us-and-the-holocaust-pbs
• Andrew Marantz on how-a-fringe-legal-theory-became-a-threat-to-democracy
• Brad De Long on policy-for-inflation-control
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-john-roberts-milligan-allen-voting-rights-act-alabama-racial-gerrymandering, supreme-court-ketanji-brown-jackson-medicaid-health-hospital-talevski
• Dahlia Lithwick on supreme-court-analysis-john-robert-vra
• Nathaniel Rakich on supreme-court-voting-rights-redistricting-implications
• slow boring on tim-scotts-wise-words thanks Brad
• Chris Anstey on team-recession-s-setback Thanks Brad
• Richard Pildes on supreme-court-voting-rights-decision-alabama
• Andrew Prokop on indictment-unsealed-trump-charges-explained-classified-documents
• Mark Stern on john-roberts-brett-kavanaugh-save-voting-rights-act, trump-indictment-criminal-conspiracy-charges-explained
• Zack Beauchanp on trump-indictment-republican-reaction-doj-documents-mar-a-lago

Europe

• Mainly Macro on rachel-reeves-economic-strategy
• Stefan Wolf and David Dunn on ukraine-war-what-we-know-about-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-and-who-gains-from-its-destruction
• Fred Kaplan on ukraine-counteroffensive-what-success-looks-like
• renew economy on spain-on-track-to-pass-50-pct-renewable-energy-generation-in-2023
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-kherson-russia
• Anne Applebaum on ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-goals
• Unherd on why-putin-will-use-nuclear-weapons Thanks Nick

Asia

• Srijan Sukla on trading-can-unlock-india-s-industrial-potential
• noahopinion on real-estate-is-chinas-economic-achilles-heel
• Steve Coll on who-are-the-taliban-now-hassan-abbas
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-duelling-d-words-delineate-china
• MD Rahman on us-steps-pressure-bangladesh-ahead-elections
• Gyu-Jin Huang on east-asia-s-low-welfare-spending-model-fails-tackle-inequality
• Stephen Walt on stop-worrying-about-chinese-hegemony-in-asia Thanks Nick

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-rishi-sunak-got-wrong-about-maths
• Daniel Flitton on lessons-history-comparing-australia-s-response-war-crimes-united-states
• Jenny Gordon on two-views-best-way-forward-washington-consensus
• Donald Rothwell on us-china-cold-war-lesson-apply-rules-road-sea
• Antara Halder on behavioral-economics-revolution-has-been-tamed thanks Brad
• David Rowe on how-saudi-arabia-came-to-be-at-the-centre-of-a-global-golf-merger
• Stephen Kent and Chamsavath Phetsouphanh on long-covid-could-be-caused-by-the-virus-lingering-in-the-body-heres-what-the-science-says
• noahopinion on the-reverse-opec-maneuver
• Tyler Cowen on the-illusion-of-moral-decline

General

• Ruby Stephens et al on the-worlds-first-flowers-were-pollinated-by-insects
• Michael Petraglia on major-new-research-claims-smaller-brained-homo-naledi-made-rock-art-and-buried-the-dead-but-the-evidence-is-lacking
• Alex Kirsher on pga-tour-liv-dp-golf-merger-saudi-arabia-pif
• Vanessa PIrotta on a-russian-spy-whale-killer-whales-biting-boats-heres-how-to-understand-these-close-encounters-of-the-curious-kind

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on beliefs-and-bets
• Real climate on turning-a-new-pages
• stoat on scientists-warned-about-climate-change-in-1965
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-0028-from-april
• skeptical science on simpsons-climate-change
• Jonathan Bamber on arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-say-scientists-this-would-have-global-damaging-and-dangerous-consequences
• skeptical science on renewables-advantage-massive

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• junk-science-its-not-just-for-ted-talks-npr-features-and-airport-bestsellers-it-can-also-ruin-peoples-lives
  
• in-the-past-fifty-years-real-life-has-caught-up-with-life-of-brian
  
• rosenthals-textbook-a-first-look-at-rigorous-probability-theory
  
• the-traffic-accidents-study-exposes-the-lamentable-state-of-covid-19-science
  
• incompetence-or-fraud-hidden-in-plain-sight
  
• hedging-your-bets-by-weighting-regressions
  
• statschat on briefly
• Kaiser Fung on nyt-in-story-first-mode, is-it-worth-it-to-flaunt-parking-rules

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• its-the-economy-stupid
  
• inflation-past-and-present
  

Vox Wonk

• where-stem-graduates-stem-intergenerational-transmission-comparative-skill-advantages
  
• generative-ai-and-firm-valuation
  
• measuring-geopolitical-risk-perceptions-matter
  
• ecosystem-theories-harm-digital-mergers-new-insights-network-economics-part-1
  
• carbon-policies-and-stock-returns-signals-financial-markets
  
• ecosystem-theories-harm-digital-mergers-new-insights-network-economics-part-2
  
• the-road-to-individual-taxation
  
• productivity-effects-generative-artificial-intelligence
  
• jacques-melitz
  
• gap-between-law-and-practice-gender-rights
  
• european-public-goods
  
• inflation-and-wage-growth-pandemic
  
• learning-and-technological-progress-east-asian-electronics-industry