A few things on melbourne cup day

 melbourne cup rant

I have always found it hypocritical that employers who bemoan public holidays and scream about productivity are mute on melbourne cup day. It epitomises Australia. We bludge on a day to celebrate a damned horse race. We get drunk and lose money betting on it. 

usa

That court case involving two FBI agents got tossed as did the alaskan case.(see the florida lawman on youtube for a good explanation of the decision.)

They vote tomorrow and Brad De Long has possibly the best article on the polls.

In Michigan the gal who lost the democratic senate primary now supports the republican. She DEMANDED he call out ads done by third parties. It seems calling him a jihadist a supporter of ISIS, muslim brotherhood, al qaeda is fine!

I see the republican candidate in Kansas is saying the democratic candidate could have been grooming young boys!

My view is if you ( yes I am talking to you yanks) don't think Trump needs some checks and balances then sorry you are very stupid!!

different

it appears  people see phantom lighthouses here is OZ.

Cricket and other stuff

 Test Cricket

How did we lose a series we should have won 3-0? Well how about selecting an opener who has not played much cricket over the last 2 years. What about selecting a first drop who has not performed for years.  How about selecting a number 6 as opener. This means you are two down for not much a lot of the time. Then you get to our middle order brittleness that was exposed in the last two tests.

What about transition problems. We have a heap of players in their mid 30s or approaching it. I can see quite a few retiring after the Ashes. We did have a great quartet of bowlers but clearly they were affected by the test schedule. I think Hazelwood and Lyons cannot play 5 tests and are showing their age. Boland should be used at present to give some bowlers a rest.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention the pitches and swing. There was precious little swing in all three tests. There was a bit of nip but not a lot and only spun from the footmarks. In other words the batsmen should have had the time of their lives yet they did not. Batting technique everywhere is poor.

Polling

The ALP continues to lose votes as another rate rise looms. Fancy that. I can't believe it!

Housing Affordability

home prices are falling at the largest for over 20 years. IF you want greater affordability then this is a good thing. If you want hose prices to rise you do not understand the topic.

USA

DOJ has lost the-presumption-of-regularity. In the case of the two FBI agents charged they have not even talked to anyone who actually heard what they said!

Trump's  lawyers were very poor in the WSJ case and look to be the same in the BBC case.

Few people it appears rank voting. We civilised aussies call it preferential voting. This writer does. Putting up a candidate with the same name as a major candidate can work in first past the post. It doesn't in rank voting

UK 

The Labour party has brought down quite austere budgets and as Simon Wren-Lewis shows this has come about by taxes and spending. By the way the UK are much better than other leading nations where the USA are  clearly the worst.

Around the Traps 30/10/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• institutional economics on my-3000-step
• David Hayward on with-an-election-looming-victorias-debt-is-huge-but-are-the-states-finances-really-that-bad
• Michelle Grattan on michelle-landry-announces-retirement-opening-path-for-matt-canavan-to-switch-to-lower-house
• Nathan Gray and Peter Draper on failure-to-ratify-the-eu-trade-deal-would-cost-australia-far-more-than-beef
• Simon Henderson on australia-should-do-more-to-back-japan-and-the-icc-in-the-face-of-us-sanctions
• Yuting Zhang et al on exempting-pensioners-from-private-health-rebate-changes-wont-make-it-fairer-heres-what-would
• Isaac Gross on inflation-jumps-to-4-3-adding-to-pressure-for-rba-rate-rise-next-week
• Margherita Matera on eu-australia-fta-the-threat-to-ratification-runs-both-ways 
• David Vallance on australia-s-usd30-billion-base-boom-needs-scrutiny-too
• Ben Doherty on australian-sas-officers-knew-about-unlawful-throwdowns-on-dead-afghans-report-says
• John Hawkins on mortgage-holders-arent-alone-in-paying-for-rate-hikes-heres-how-the-rba-spreads-the-pain
• Olaf Meynecke on unlike-anything-ive-seen-why-this-whale-season-has-marine-scientists-puzzled
• George Newhouse on we-must-protect-jewish-australians-without-casting-suspicion-on-legitimate-concern-for-palestinians

OZ Climate

• first-new-steel-mill-in-australia-in-35-years-to-be-the-first-to-be-powered-by-100-per-cent-renewables
  
• batteries-and-cells-whether-on-wheels-or-the-grid-its-all-about-chemistry-and-cost
  
• more-batteries-both-big-and-small-mean-solar-farms-dont-have-to-shut-down-so-often
  
• nelsons-new-market-design-could-provide-the-answer-to-decarbonising-australian-industry-and-transport
  
• recap-3-0-doesnt-answer-the-biggest-questions-about-snowys-25-billion-plus-pumped-hydro-gamble
  
• letting-data-centres-build-first-catch-up-on-renewables-later-could-add-40-billion-to-power-bills
  
• keep-the-temperature-down-in-an-anxious-world-we-need-to-make-the-energy-transition-work-for-everyone
  
• we-will-be-the-first-state-to-roll-out-plug-in-solar-and-batteries-to-help-renters-and-apartment-dwellers
  
• simplified-version-of-esem-to-be-used-to-propel-state-beyond-coal-and-to-75-per-cent-renewables
  
• wa-needs-more-renewables-but-that-does-not-mean-it-needs-more-gas
  
• anti-renewables-populism-is-the-largest-unpriced-risk-but-poll-data-shows-support-is-growing-even-in-hot-zones
  
• re-linking-the-nem-could-fungible-esem-bulk-energy-contracts-be-bankable 
  
• cheaper-power-from-the-balcony-plug-in-solar-and-batteries-could-open-the-energy-transition-to-renters
  
• Nicky Morrison et al on we-must-prepare-entire-cities-for-extreme-heat-our-new-study-reveals-how
• Graham Readfearn on bom-temperature-record-keeping-under-attack-again
• Eli Bendall and Rachael Nolan on while-some-eucalypts-are-hard-to-kill-climate-change-may-test-the-ability-of-others-to-survive
• Yeongmin Kweon on australia-s-green-iron-gamble-needs-more-ambition-to-convince-asia 
• Lisa Cox on menindee-lakes-water-levels-drop-mass-fish-death-fears

Northern America

• Brad De Long on torsten-slok-beats-the-ai-bear-drum , crosspost-josh-busby-and-duck-of-minerva
• Don Moynihan on blockers-and-grifters Thanks Nick
• Ian Millhiser on trump-mary-peltola-dans-sullivan-lawsuit
• Quinta Jurecic on fbi-prosecution
• Kruggers on the-crisis-next-time, trump-doesnt-give-a-damn-about-your-problems, will-the-ai-investment-splurge-last
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on the-republicans-remarkably-bad-midterm-campaigns 
• Christian Paz on kansas-senate-adam-hamilton-religion-democrat-christian-methodist-roger-marshall 
• Tyler Cowen on frances-lee-on-american-elections
• Fred Kaplan on midterms-elon-musk-republicans-china
• Jonathan Guyer on trumps-blob-foreign-policy 
• Liz Dye on comey-third-criminal-charges
• James Hamilton on u-s-gdp-grows-more-in-q3
• Nancy Youseff on brett-sylvia-hegseth-general-pentagon
• Jake Laaperruque on government-hiding-rebuke-warrantless-fisa-surveillance
• Harry Litman on trump-puts-doj-lawyers-in-indefensible-positions

Europe

• Martin Boudry on an army of yesterdays civilians Thanks Nick 
• Ian Hill on ukraine-perils-for-kyiv-in-revived-peace-talks
• Gavin Sullivan and Tereza Capelos on we-changed-the-system-how-serbian-students-ended-alexander-vucics-12-years-in-power
• Zarina Zabrinsky on oleshky-ceasefire-ukraine-press
• Fintan O'Toole on back-to-the-future-andy-burnham
• mainly macro on the-big-picture-for-forthcoming-uk.-budget-that-the-media-largely-ignores 
• Marko Milanovic and Michael Schmitt on data-centers-military-objectives-russia-ukraine

Asia

• Prathap Latchmanan on singapore-s-job-as-asean-chair-fixing-how-the-grouping-decides
• Amnon Aron on israeli-election-why-nobody-has-been-talking-about-palestinian-statehood
• Ran Porat on israel-has-voted-but-the-results-will-be-messy-heres-how-its-next-government-will-be-formed
• Hannah Ridge on why-ultra-orthodox-parties-hold-so-much-sway-in-israeli-politics
• Dov Waxman on israel-has-voted-but-what-comes-next-dissecting-a-messy-ballot-and-coalition-building-process

Wonk

• Michael Powell on city-drug-addiction-harm-reduction-policy Thanks Nick
• bigiftrue on enough is enough Thanks Nick
• Ryan Avent on meaning-and-the-crisis-of-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Samuel Hughes on the-seven-vices-of-highly-effective-victorians Thanks Nick 
• Tim Harford on the-problem-with-pdoom 
• the conversable economist on ai-in-development-world-development-report-2026
• Tyler Cowen on why-are-cybersecurity-losses-not-worse
• noahpinion on the-internet-breaks , roundup-90, a-golden-age-of-science-is-coming
• Guilherme Casaroes on lula-wins-a-miracle-election-in-brazil-now-comes-the-hard-part-putting-the-country-back-on-the-right-track
• Deborah Farias on what-lulas-stunning-comeback-means-for-the-future-of-the-far-right-in-brazil
• Martyn Khomyn on anthropics-record-us-2-trillion-stock-market-listing-highlights-the-growing-risks-for-all-of-us
• Kruggers on hack-apocalypse-now 
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-europe-the-us-and-china-comparing-geoeconomic-size
• Mary McGlasson and Manny Maung on the-aid-system-is-doing-less-with-less-yet-grading-itself-far-too-kindly
• Brad De Long on crosspost-henry-farrell-agentic-ai-is-myth-in-motion

General

• Rachel McCormack on woman-leaves-the-psychoanalyst Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on crosspost-josh-bernhoff-2019-why-books-work
• Kenya Fernandes on with-an-election-looming-victorias-debt-is-huge-but-are-the-states-finances-really-that-bad

Climate

• Megan Corrarino on unep-emissions-gap-report-seven-questions
• skeptical science on how-not-to-detect-warming-acceleration , new_research
• Bishakhdatta Gayen et al on the-deep-oceans-protection-against-warming-started-to-change-in-2016-nobody-knows-what-happens-now
• Mary Stuart on how-the-far-right-uses-climate-disasters-to-build-political-power

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• ideological-bias-in-ideological-bias-in-the-production-of-research-findings 
  
• worlds-dumbest-spam-just-dropped
  
• skepticism-about-the-reading-the-mind-in-the-eyes-test
  
• six-questions-about-political-polarization-and-my-responses
  
• six-questions-about-political-polarization-and-my-responses
  
• we-interrupt-our-usual-programming-to-inform-you-that-i-was-never-hired-by-facebook-to-do-a-hit-job-on-jonathan-haidt 
  
• tension-vs-excitement-during-nba-games
  
• bou-rabee-square-root-condition-number-dependence
  
• in-the-run-up-to-the-trial-the-brothers-conducted-an-elaborate-public-relations-campaign-also-arranged-for-payments-to-influencers-and-podcasters-who-made-sympathetic-social-media-posts-about
  
• r-hat-august-1999
  
• stochastic-potential-outcomes-a-discussion-with-ang-yu-and-jonas-mikhaeil
  
• Eliot Abrams  et al on research registries: facts myths and possible improvements Thanks Nick 
• Kaiser Fung on doper-duper, abstractions-in-data-viz

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Jonathan Rauch on even-perfect-liberal-governance-could-not-have-stopped-reactionary-populism Thanks Nick
• Ingrid Robeyns on naza-on-being-a-cog-in-a-machine
• Alex Tabarrok on tyler-cowens-strongest-book-recommendations-over-the-years , eleven-outstanding-film-and-television-reviews-by-tyler-cowen-and-alex-tabarrok

Vox Wonk

• chasing-far-right-does-not-pay-centre-right-parties-evidence-germanys-2025-election 
  
• historic-monetary-tightening-benign-output-dynamics-rising-r-stars-across-atlantic 
  
• changes-health-and-longevity-elderly-us 
  
• oil-shocks-no-longer-hit-us-economy-they-used 
  
• washing-away-us-tariff-evasion-other-side-us-china-trade-war 
  
• private-equity-beyond-target-how-buyouts-reshape-supply-chains 
  
• how-agreements-between-suppliers-and-retailers-can-weaken-competition 
  
• adult-social-care-can-be-better-value-health-care-we-already-fund 
  
• not-your-average-firm-heterogeneous-cross-border-financial-allocations 
  
• powerful-pacifism-and-currency-dominance-what-150-years-international-monetary-system 
  
• company-wage-policy-low-wage-labour-market 
  
• real-economy-case-capital-markets-integration-cross-border-shareholders-and-firm
  

the coming rate rise and some other things

 CPI

The ABS released the September CPI yesterday ( the quarterly numbers have to be downloaded). It wasn't good and no-one thought it would be. HERE is Isaac Gross on the figures. I do not disagree.

The trimmed mean has in reality stopped rising BUT it aint falling. The non-tradables rate is rising and is too high. It appears higher fuel prices ( fossil fuel ) has been integrated into the system.

Thus a rate rise is all but guaranteed.

Serbia

 The pro-russian government has fallen due in part to student unrest. This is a good thing unlike in France where it has been overtaken by far-left fanatics..

The Prince

you haven't read the book. you should 

Israel

They have had an election and no-one understands the result. THIS might help.

US DOJ

They are trying to put Jim Comey in gaol but they are sooo incompetent and embarrassing

Elon Musk.

 Steve from Brisbane had a post on Musk. Then Fred Kaplan wrote about Musk and the fall-out from the mid-terms.

I have never had much time for Musk. Tesla always looks over-priced but to give him credit he initially made it a 'new' company but now it is lagging behind competitors mainly from China! He was mad to get into politics where he has made twitter a cesspit and made owners and potential owners of tesla cars very cheesed off.

His space X company looks overpriced as well. It clearly has the worst AI around.

His adventure via DOGE was a disaster where neither he nor his people had a clue about government consequently his group made little savings in dollar terms but cost lives and the USA's soft power status.

His companies get suspiciously good treatment from the government and his  understanding of world politics is pathetic. this can be gauged by his declaration of Ukraine as 'warmongers'.

In irony of irony he has actually admitted he got into the USA on untrue terms.

some stuff on Climate

 Well snowy 2.0 is obviously in the news.

Peter Hannan argues against it.

Andrew Blakkers   is for it. It does last 150 years!

We still have rising temperatures.

Tamino on rising sea temperatures

You have to know how to detect it.

Zeke Hausfather on how not to detect global warming

A Few Things

 France ( and some other countries)

The demonstrations appear to be taken over by the far left more so given the far left leader there has supported them. I have said previously a coalition of islamists and far left rioters would be very strange. The fact some people have seen a palestinian flag has led some to believe this is being exacerbated by islamists. Only problem is when I saw the flag being waved it was by a white man!

Hugh Scofield is reporting the students who started the demonstrations are cheesed off that the far left  have tried to to hijack this.

Macron has attempted to implement some sensible economic policies and has been stymied in parliament. He has been very poor since his disastrous early election gamble which blew up in his face. In some way he could be the reason why the presidential election could be between the far right and the far left both of whom are economically illiterate.

A-League

Well what a difference a week makes. The Melbourne derby was great. a good crowd, good football and a draw probably the best result. The Wanderers  also played good football in Auckland against Auckland and won well.

Ben Roberts-Smith

A judge found him guilty of war crimes based on the balance of probabilities ( not beyond a reasonable doubt.) He is now on a publicity tour but only interviewed by people favourable to him. Thus he is given soft questions. He complains about the definition of war crimes beinde retrospective BUT he is being charged along the previous definition. I do not get why his apologists believe they know more than the judge in the libel case and that he had the best legal practitioners  money could buy but still badly lost . He had little credibility!

Test Cricket

We lost to SA by an innings and one of the crucial SA bowlers only bowled 3.3 overs. It seems all those who criticised SA in the first test and now doing the same to Australia now. Rabada was not fully game fit but still got to over 150k a number of times. I suspect he will be better in the third test.

We have to decide what the batting lineup is and whether Boland plays or not.

Why is the a dearth of supporters watching these matches?

USA

Omar's house in Washington was raided. The justice department are not supposed to do this 60 days prior to an election let alone during the election period.  It is failing the pub test to suggest she would attempt to get out the country since she is running for office again. This does look performative.It also should be in the FBI's hands. Why did they raid her washington house and not where she actually lives if they were actually after new information. Yeah we can guess. How have they come across such information they could not find in 2019 and only just found it now?

Two FBI agents have been charged over lying to congress in the hunter biden laptop debacle. One HUGE problem is they were not indicted via a grand jury but by complaint. So the defendants said let us have the Judge see if there is a case now. The DOJ said nonono. We need time which makes no sense given it was done via a complaint. This again looks performative.

The republicans have allowed their campaign to be swamped by utter trash when an add for the governorship was put on alleging the democrat candidate was a liar by her mother. This is the same woman who deserted their home when her husband The step-father) was indicted for raping her daughter she is now calling a  liar. Naturally Trump joined in this disgusting race to the bottom. I do hope they get their just deserts for this disgraceful act.

Israel

They go to the polls yet it is a tight election. I don't get it. The present government was asleep at the wheel when october 7 occurred yet some people want to vote for them again?

Brazil

They are having an election. It is between Lula who beat a man whol ike trump refused to concede and wanted an insurrection. He failed BUT his son is running

Around the Traps 23/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robert Whait and connie Vitalie on the-government-wants-trusts-to-pay-a-minimum-30-tax-whats-behind-the-changes
• Mathew Bowes and Erin-Lea Brown on if-we-want-a-better-australia-we-need-to-raise-the-gst-and-cut-income-taxes
• Mathew Wesley on what-australia-could-learn-from-its-southeast-asian-neighbours-about-power-and-the-changing-global-order
• Jenny Bloomfield on a-smaller-australia-won-t-be-a-stronger-one
• Kristina Murphy on anti-government-violence-is-growing-the-response-needs-to-be-more-than-just-increased-policing
• Joshua Black and Frank Bongiorno on australian-democracy-is-usually-peaceful-but-theres-a-homegrown-history-with-political-violence-that-bears-on-the-future
• Sam Roggeveen on cutting-migration-risks-australia-s-middle-power-clout
• Shane Wright on food-inflation-is-a-bigger-issue-than-oil-and-the-reserve-bank-knows-it
• Mark the Graph on three-failures-behind-rbas-narrow-path
• Andrew Cullen on shares-in-this-data-centre-company-are-down-40-as-investors-lose-faith-in-the-ai-story
• Nicki Hutley on three-things-the-albanese-government-could-do-right-now-to-make-people-feel-better-off
• Patrick Commins on jim-chalmers-hard-choices-economy-inflation-unemployment
• Dominic Ahiaga-Dagbui on why-snowy-hydros-25-billion-cost-blowout-is-a-warning-sign-for-other-megaprojects
• Michael Bachelard on ben-roberts-smith-s-2gb-interview-fact-checked

OZ Climate

• south-australia-unveils-13-gigawatts-of-new-wind-and-solar-projects-to-propel-it-way-beyond-100-pct-net-renewables
  
• wandering-towards-dystopia-csiro-scientists-want-open-discussion-of-climate-impacts-before-its-too-late
  
• two-distressed-and-heavily-curtailed-solar-farms-sold-for-a-song-will-the-battery-bust-be-next
  
• tiny-solar-project-stuck-between-a-dam-and-snowy-2-0-as-angry-and-weary-locals-say-no-more
  
• rooftop-pv-wind-solar-and-batteries-bring-down-prices-despite-record-demand-over-winter
  
• very-disappointing-snowy-confirms-pumped-hydro-costs-double-again-to-a-possible-25bn-hit-with-more-delays
  
• batteries-start-to-drive-up-midday-prices-outstripping-the-fall-in-evening-peaks
  
• recap-3-0-doesnt-answer-the-biggest-questions-about-snowys-25-billion-plus-pumped-hydro-gamble
  
• snowy-profits-steady-amid-pumped-hydro-strains-while-ceo-barnes-sees-his-take-home-benefits-sink-below-2-million
  
• Andrew Blakkers on snowy-2-0-was-never-going-to-be-cheap-but-it-will-be-much-cheaper-than-relying-on-batteries-for-storage
• Adam Morton and Petra Stock on energy-snowy-hydro-2-power-project-costing-explainer

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on the-term-spread-and-the-case-of-the-missing-2024-recession
• noahpinion on why-are-we-ruled-by-barbarians 
• Kruggers on ai-rising-inequality-and-rising-oligarchy, donald-trump-is-politically-bankrupt-be-very-afraid, the-traitor-in-chief, trump-is-destroying-americans-healthcare, its-time-to-take-starlink-away-from-elon-musk, the-starlink-ukraine-scandal-phase-2
• Nick Miroff and Nancy Youseff on army-wife-ice-deportation-texas
• Tom Nicholls on america-is-now-an-ally-of-russia
• Alex Tabarrok on no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments
• Brad De Long on spending-on-tokens-chart-of-the-day, crosspost-robert-rubin-in-six-decades-in-public-life-I'd-never-thought-I-I'd-have-to-write-this
• Phillips O'Brien on time-for-a-reality-check Thanks Kruggers 
• David Graham onwhat-trump-france-protest-comments-reveal
• Brian O'Neill on foreign-threats-us-elections-maturing 
• Harry Litman on thats-not-a-thing
• Jared Wesley on albertans-soundly-vote-to-stay-in-canada-many-are-asking-why-they-had-to-vote-in-the-first-place
• David Kaye on trump-accountability-legal-acts-impeachment-guide
• David Frum on trump-budget-deficit-debt
• home and away on shameful
• David Lurie on trump-putin-deal-ukraine
• David Kurz on dojs-list-of-noncitizen-voters-exposed-as-crap
• Jeet Heer on trump-corruption-midterms , ilhan-omar-raid-trump-reaction 
• Richard Hasen on 2026-midterm-news-doj-alaska-trump-fraud
• Anne Applebaum on trump-oil-venezuela-exploitation 
• 
  

Europe

• Felix Martin on why-europe-could-be-real-winner-ai-boom Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on is-europe-losing-the-future
• Anthony King on is-the-us-limiting-starlink-in-ukraine-the-consequences-could-be-catastrophic
• Marina Yusupova-Ryder on how-the-geopolitical-stigma-associated-with-putins-russia-is-affecting-ordinary-russians
• Tracey German on sodcit-after-battlefield-setbacks-russia-returns-to-destroying-ukraines-morale
• Peter McPhee on as-french-protests-escalate-into-riots-they-may-prove-a-gift-for-marine-le-pens-right-wing-party
• Chris Dillow on on-legacy-ideas
• Tyler Cowen on how-long-do-wealth-shocks-persist-less-than-three-generations-in-england-1700-2026
• noahpinion on france-and-the-limits-of-liberalism

Asia

• Isel Van Zyl on the-houthi-threat-that-saudi-arabia-couldn-t-end
• Ayesha Jehangir on naza-harrowing-documentary-shows-how-killing-in-gaza-became-just-another-days-work
• Isaac Chotiner on behind-the-settler-attack-on-palestinians-and-a-washington-post-journalist
• Vania Widodo on southeast-asia-who-gets-to-call-haze-a-disaster
• Ved Shinde on china-s-invitation-to-us-students-could-be-a-way-to-rewrite-relations 
• Nicholas Niarchos on yemen-the-endless-siege-the-yemen-model-stark
• Tamir Sorek on palestinian-citizens-face-a-painful-choice-in-israels-election-to-vote-or-not

Wonk

• institutional economics on bonds-redux-always-be-shorting-the-economist
• Paul Graham on two kinds of moderate Thanks Nick
• fake nous on you-dont-agree-with-karl-popper Thanks Nick
• corey robins on eichmann-in-the-ivy-league Thanks Nick
• alexander thompson on exam-of-the-month-all-souls-prize Thanks Nick
• Adrian Pabst on the-varieties-of-postliberalism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on ai-can-forecast-the-future-should-we-let-it
• Olga Boichek on ukraines-drone-strikes-on-russian-data-centres-may-change-how-we-see-disinformation
• noahpinion on can-a-million-ai-agents-create-superintelligence 
• Menzie Chinn on insurance-for-ai-hyperscaler-debt-et-al
• Tyler Cowen on the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade
• mainly macro on the-decline-of-knowledge-based-policy-and-the-economics-nobel 
• the conversable economist on a-supply-shock-era

General

• Rachel King on hordes-of-yabbies-are-trashing-rivers-in-africa-how-did-this-happen
• James Roberts on guide-to-the-classics-bemused-by-the-contemporary-world-the-red-and-the-black-might-be-just-the-friend-you-need

Climate

• open mind on how-fast-is-earth-warming, sea-surface-temperature-the-most-obvious-acceleration
• skeptical science on strongest-el-nino-in-a-1000-years?, new_research
• mohyu on september-global-surface-templs-down-from-august

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• why-do-we-like-wind-chimes
  
• I write to seek your help
• death-and-taxes-taking-causal-inference-into-the-real-world
  
• the-paper-creates-the-impression-that-a-certain-intervention-is-effective-while-in-fact-the-evidence-suggests-otherwise
  
• in-the-belly-of-the-whale-portraits-from-a-fractured-israel 
  
• survey-statistics-textbooks-adding-non-probability-sampling-chapters
  
• legit-political-reporters-use-data-journalism-techniques-to-catch-fake-pollsters-at-wedgewood-polls
  
• from-2022-my-exchange-with-yann-lecun-about-killer-robots
  
• how-to-get-the-most-out-of-bayesian-data-analysis
  
• a-big-problem-with-conventional-experimentation-or-a-b-testing-is-that-the-treatment-effect-can-vary-over-time-and-it-can-depend-on-the-entire-history-of-the-treatment-usual-comparisons-miss-this-po
  
• Kaiser Fung on theyre-coming-for-your-subway-stop, replicating-science

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on this-beautiful-country, what-ive-been-reading
• Andrew Gelman on in-the-belly-of-the-whale-portraits-from-a-fractured-israel 
• 
  

Vox Wonk

• mortality-costs-of-climate-change 
  
• never-let-good-crisis-go-waste-term-limits-and-banking-reforms 
  
• fiscal-consolidation-temporary-costs-versus-lasting-scars 
  
• letting-ai-agents-write-econometric-code 
  
• forward-guidance-and-limits-of-public-information 
  
• here-there-and-everywhere-remote-work-and-employment-disabled-and-older-workers-uk
  
• taming-original-sin-redux-role-benchmark-driven-flows 
  
• what-happens-innovation-after-big-tech-buys-startup 
  
• kyiv-love-and-savings-defence-win-win-europe-and-ukraine 
  
• mind-gap-bringing-eu-debt-stability-and-growth-pact 
  
• establishment-level-evidence-californias-fast-food-minimum-wage
  

Let us get it right on Haines attacker

 I see here and overseas people on the far right are alleging the criminal who has thus far caused Haines to lose two legs is a far left terrorist.

Huh.

Firstly if he was say active about being pro-palestine and the environment why in the hell would he run over Haines, It would make more sense to run over Hanson given her views not Haines. ( Yes I know it makes no sense but you know what I mean.)

Secondly if he was a terrorist he would be doing it for ideological reasons and thus Haines would have strong views diametrically opposed to what he believes and that simply is  not true.

Lastly his parents are friends of Haines. On the surface it makes no sense.

Now we find out he is suffering.

The evidence thus far suggests is is personal and irrational.

It reminds me of similar people rushing to the conclusion that the Bondi massacre was due to palestinian  protests when one link to ISIS would show you ISIS hates palestine!

Hillary Clinton was right

 In one of the debates of the 20126 election where she bested Trump she asserted Trump would be Putin's puppet and lead the USA out of NATO.

She was right and the USA is much poorer for this.

I will outsource the remainder to Kruggers. Read the Phillips O'Brien link as well.

It does show how stupid some MAGA followers are when they believe Putin that the increase in the number of NATO nations was one of the reasons for the war. NATO is like most military treaties is a defensive treaty. IF one of the NATO counties invaded another country like Russia then none of the fellow members would come to their side.

It also shows they do not follow Putin's speeches as he has constantly said Ukraine is not a country and part of Russia.

The world is a cesspit

 I am depressed.

Helen Haines

Everybody loves Helen Haines. In a sense it is understandable. She is an independent and thus unlikely to be in government and so can enunciate her views without fear or favour. Now someone has tried to kill her. It is appalling.

French riots

It seems no-one is sure who is behind the riots in France.  Mike Johnson and Emmanuel Macron blame far lefits. flags of the  hammer and sickle would seem to indicate that might have a kernel of truth. However our own public intellectual (sarc) Barnaby Joyce blames immigration and islamists. He  produced no evidence as usual to back up his claim. most of the protesters looks white to me and the journos covering it. A coalition of islamists and commies is so far fetched  that it even defies the pub test. Barnaby it is people like you not 'THEM' that are to blame.

Whoopsy I should have added riots in france over politics has been going on since at least 1968. Obviously some people have not known this.

The USA becomes an ally of Russia.

Tom Nicholls is correct in his synopsis.People have long speculated on why Trump sides with Putin. Remember trump is very stupid but thinks he is bright. That is manna from heaven to a former KGB agent.

Now something to cheer up with. Alex Tabarrok says no to AI crowding out. only problem is whether we are in a speculative AI 'boom'. For example it is absurd to argue the tulip boom did not crowd out investment. Investors were wrong in their investment decisions then. They might be now.

Go Noah

 Noah Smith of noahpinion ( get it) has a great column.

Here it is.

why-are-we-ruled-by-barbarians

Around the Traps 16/10/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jane Goodall on examined-lives Thanks Nick
• Marta Khomyn on after-firmus-shelved-the-biggest-asx-listing-in-30-years-what-does-it-say-to-investors-about-ai-hype
• burnout economics on australian-headline-growth-masks-failing-economy
• Antony Green on the-pattern-of-one-nation-support-in-nsw
• Susan Thorp on a-record-82-of-australian-home-loans-now-rely-on-mortgage-brokers-why
• Patrick Commins on australia-has-never-driven-migration-into-reverse-by-design-would-slamming-the-brakes-on-be-calamitous
• Ross Gittins on i-m-sick-of-immigration-being-blamed-for-problems-it-doesn-t-cause
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-urgent-choices-albanese-australia
• Peter McDonald on australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
• Nader Naderpajouh et al on australia-urgently-needs-a-national-bushfire-database-heres-what-it-could-look-like
• David Sanderson et al on 3-things-we-need-to-get-right-ahead-of-extreme-bushfire-risk-this-summer
• the tally room on new demosAU MRP how a small swing costs a lot of seats
• Kimberlee Weatherall et al on australias-digital-duty-of-care-was-just-introduced-to-parliament-so-whats-in-the-bill
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-in-australia-hits-a-five-year-high-of-4-7-making-a-rates-hike-less-likely

OZ Climate

• australias-most-powerful-battery-free-to-trade-on-market-in-major-change-to-shock-absorber-contract
  
• look-no-turbines-natural-landscape-returns-at-site-of-decommissioned-wind-farm
  
• we-dont-use-horoscopes-to-shape-national-energy-plans-so-why-put-so-much-faith-in-complex-modelling
  
• the-queensland-lnp-plan-for-coal-powered-data-centres-could-cost-taxpayers-20-billion-a-pop
  
• no-economic-case-global-experts-say-nuclear-has-role-in-some-countries-but-makes-no-sense-in-australia
  
• when-renewable-abundance-becomes-the-story-what-a-record-breaking-weekend-reveals-about-the-grid 
  
• doesnt-make-sense-australias-biggest-power-generator-not-interested-in-new-coal-fired-power-plants
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  
• how-do-we-power-the-data-centre-boom-while-also-quitting-coal-there-are-three-options
  
• large-scale-renewables-projects-reached-record-levels-of-investment-sign-offs-in-the-september-quarter-bowen-says
  
• wind-developer-signs-community-benefit-deals-worth-up-to-160m-to-end-stalemate-over-called-in-projects
• consumers-need-renewables-but-the-gentailers-are-going-for-gas-and-the-esem-cavalry-is-still-over-the-horizon
  
• Graham Readfearn on australia-solar-panels-uptake-record-through-roof, is-it-really-madness-to-account-for-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-burned-overseas-the-coalition-sure-thinks-so
• Hayley Pring  on the-high-court-looked-at-coal-climate-emissions-overseas-but-what-about-emissions-at-home

Northern America

• Richard Hanania on the-feminization-discourse-as-partisan-hackery Thanks Nick
• Chapin Lenthall-Cleary on men-are-more-tolerant-of-the-other-side-than-women-are-of-their-own Thanks Nick
• noahpinion  on maybe-the-rapture-is-already-here, why-donald-trump-won-in-2024, ai-vs-the-railroads
• platypus economics on america-doesnt-have-a-shortage-of-red-dye Thanks Tyler
• Kruggers on will-ai-crowd-out-jobs, arithmetic-suffers-from-trump-derangement-syndrome, elon-musk-shows-us-why-oligarchy-is-a-danger, nerobefehl-nation, on-inflation-trump-snatched-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory, the-bad-news-on-inflation-just-keeps-on-rising
• Zaid Jilani on texas-bo-french-indian-far-right-hate
• Adam Serwer on texas-university-censorship-free-speech
• Brad De Long on crosspost-claudia-sahm-hand-the-pen-to-the-committee, an-inflation-report-that-is-disappointingly-high, crosspost-seva-gunitsky-trumps-near-abroad, the-first-time-a-fed-easing-move-has-triggered-a-large-move in -long-term-bond-yields
• William McRaven on public-execution-nidal-hasan 
• Menzie Chinn on steve-kamin-tales-from-the-dollar-yield-curve-nexus
• Fred Kaplan on trump-putin-diesel-deal-ukraine-republicans-midterms
• David Graham on trump-doj-ilhan-omar-search
• Jonathan Chait on trump-russia-putin-oil
• Harry Litman on bring-me-the-head-of-cassidy-hutchinson 
• Michael Schmitt and Ryan Goodman on fueling-russias-war-diesel-deal-international-law 
• Liz Dye on ilhan-omar-raid-trump
• Zack Beauchamp on democrats-trump-response-project-2029
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-israel-first-mike-huckabee-david-milstein
• Cameron Peters on katie-zacharia-press-secretary-fired
• Sussan Glasser on trumps-october-surprise-is-a-pivot-to-putin

Europe

• Lauren Collins on whats-driving-the-french-student-protests
• open mind on 250-years-of-cet-central-england-temperature
• mainly macro on interest-rates-and-budget-deficits
• Chris Dillow on the-wrong-way
• Julian Novitz on sally-rooneys-books-are-being-withdrawn-from-sale-in-the-uk-due-to-her-support-for-palestine-action
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-russia-trump-putin-war

Asia

• Safiulla Taye et al on the-war-on-terror-failed-afghanistan-but-the-peoples-hopes-for-democracy-live-on
• Hunter Marston on what-to-make-of-china-s-new-air-facility-in-laos 
• Gabriela Bernal on north-korea-s-overseas-workers-fund-the-regime-and-may-undermine-it-too
• Amin Saikal on yemen-is-spiralling-into-another-civil-war-that-could-swiftly-engulf-in-the-entire-region
• Kripa Anand on india-s-blue-economy-growth-is-outpacing-its-safeguards 
• Lynne O'Donnell on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby on the-icc-has-made-the-taliban-s-crimes-impossible-to-ignore 
• Isaac Chotiner on is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-indian-democracy
• Tyler Cowen on china-fact-of-the-day
• Benedict Moleta on israel-soon-heads-to-the-polls-while-palestinian-democracy-remains-on-hold-hamas-looms-over-both
• Shadi Saif on could-the-taliban-s-new-road-to-china-drive-negotiating-power
• Mehdi Hasan on naza-israel-film 
• William Christou on israeli-settlers-attack-olive-farmers-west-bank-washington-post-journalist-heidi-levine

Wonk

• institutional economics on the-contrarian-buy-signal-on-bonds
• Michael Lind on carl-schmitts-war-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on why-are-global-bond-yields-rising
• Tim Harford on is-the-modern-economy-a-bit-samey
• Michelle Burgis-Kasthala on trump-misses-out-on-nobel-prize-again-and-imposes-new-sanctions-on-the-international-criminal-court-what-does-it-mean
• Joshua Gans on the-acemoglu-gans-exchange-on-ai Thanks Tyler 
• the conversable economics on 1974-when-both-nobel-economists-proposed-abolishing-the-prize , how-to-keep-global-agricultural-output-rising
• Alex Tabarrok on the-nobel-prize-goes-to-robert-hall-and-michael-woodford
• Brad De Long on a-second-rate-philosopher-i-cannot-read-in-his -original-greek , crosspost-larry-macdonald-how-karl-marx-achieved-financial-independence
• Ruiping Lui and Sagarika Mishra on whos-paying-whom-the-circular-money-machine-behind-the-ai-boom-or-bubble
• noahpinion on a-nobel-for-new-keynesian-macro-at-last
• home and away on ignoble
• Jeet Heer on ai-warfare-threat

General

• Jillian Hess on how-john-steinbeck-actually-wrote-east-of-eden Thanks Nick

Climate

• Fiona Harvey on ipcc-pressure-delay-publication-climate-report-ar7-cop33
• skeptical science on fact-brief-windprice , new_research
• Nick Evershed on just-what-damage-can-the-emissions-from-a-new-fossil-fuel-facility-cause-a-new-tool-has-estimates
• ocean acidification on ocean-warming-could-cut-omega-3-levels-in-seafood-study-finds

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• thinking-more-seriously-about-the-design-of-exploratory-studies-a-manifesto
  
• digital-twins-version-2-0-the-skeptics-speak-up
  
• the-problem-is-noise-not-n-why-increasing-the-sample-size-isnt-all-that
  
• columbia-university-president-says-we-believe-in-difficult-conversations-at-columbia-in-a-broad-embrace-of-freedom-of-expression-its-in-our-dna
  
• jama-rules-of-engagement
  
•  the-head-and-the-heart 
• survey-statistics-favorite-textbooks
  
• ok-heres-a-new-scam-but-i-cant-figure-out-how-its-supposed-to-work
  
• why-do-almost-all-the-cell-phone-numbers-have-no-0s-or-1s
  
• frustration-when-authors-dodge-criticism
  
• how-surprising-is-it-that-lebron-averaged-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists-in-his-career-but-never-had-one-game-where-he-had-27-points-7-rebounds-and-7-assists
  
• seeking-to-interview-social-scientists-experimenting-with-llm-simulations-of-opinions-or-behavior
  
• freakometrics on can you be too old to insure
• Kaiser Fung on directionally-correct-bars

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Isaac Chotiner on anti-zionism-benjamin-moser-book-review Thanks Nick
• John Hawkins on this-economist-believes-the-system-is-broken-maybe-she-has-a-point
• stoat on book-review-sciences-and-philosophy 
• Tyler Cowen on lost-worlds , plunder-the-last-of-the-war-in-europe-1945
• David Frum on david-frum-show-illia-ponomarenko-ukraine-trump

Vox Wonk

• your-debt-my-inflation-role-trust-ecb 
  
• ideas-and-firm-dynamics-when-it-takes-two-tango 
  
• fiscal-populism-and-monetary-policy-rules 
  
• size-and-speed-tariff-pass-through-consumer-prices 
  
• financial-sanctions-and-global-payments-network 
  
• ratings-debt-and-deficits-exploration 
  
• risk-or-responsive-rethinking-unemployment-policy 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• detecting-institutional-change-it-unfolds-evidence-120-years-reporting 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• connecting-payment-systems-linking-economies 
  
• tokenised-finance-towards-better-markets 
  
• small-beautiful-2050-europes-digital-economy-mesh-not-hub 
  
• accounting-cross-country-income-differences-two-decades-progress
  

Some must reads

 Busy today so some great articles to read.

• australia-has-problem-or-two , why-are-global-bond-yields-rising 
  
• australia-has-3-competing-migration-policies-the-problem-none-are-based-in-evidence
  
• why-downturns-can-make-innovation-greener 
  
• financing-ai-boom-winners-and-losers-corporate-bond-markets 
  
• aemo-says-batteries-big-and-small-cutting-power-prices-and-fundamentally-changing-the-grid
  

enjoy

more of a whole bunch of things

 Test Cricket

SA showed they were short of a gallop. They bowled too short when they were swinging the ball more than us and their spinners looked ordinary ( after being guns in India). They will have Rabana back for the next two tests and the reason he is the premier bowler he is is that he swings the ball late and bowls a fuller length. Their batting looked ordinary except for Markram and Bedingham. Bavuma looked out of sorts and lost his first test. Their keeper had a test to forget. If SA want to know how they lost go back when you should had have us out for less than 200 but decided to bowl short to tailenders. I would not be surprised at a new keeper and some new batsmen.

We were lucky. Our batting again showed up weaknesses. One decent match or innings does not solve this. Our bowlers cannot get us out of losing if the batting keeps on struggling. Nortje only bowled around mid 140ks but still unnerved our batsmen.

The attendance was a disgrace.

Onto Port Elizabeth

Omar

Her home in Washington got raided. We are told this is about her citizenship however that is way past the statute of limitations. It is also highly unlikely the authorities got new information just now that meant the 60 day 'rule' had to be rejected. Certainly no explanation has been given. I'm no fan of hers but this raid looks very political. Saying Pirro is investigating her also means they have nothing as she is worse than useless

Witkoff and Kushner

Why anyone would think these two could do anything in regards to Russia/Ukraine is beyond me. They believe Putin when he says he has almost taken the Donetsk region. Why do they believe him because they have no intelligence on the war at hand BY DESIGN. It gets worse. When they finish with their 'talks' they then begin to negotiate trade deals.

Guilfoyle

This ambassadorship typifies Trump. She is a grifter of the highest order but a very stupid one. ( If I can make a sexist statement she looks and dresses like a tart. Also very trumpian)

Texan senate race.

I have to say how could anyone vote for a person whose name is Paxton!! You know it aint going the GOP when Paxton is caught partying with criminals in the gulf. The story about the democrat recovering in a mental institution in Ohio blows in the people's faces.

Premier League

If the allegations against Manchester City prove to be true then they should be relegated. This is what occurred in Italy.