Inflation is dropping

 The quarterly CPI was released yesterday and it came in at 4.1% at an annual rate. Well below the RBA's forecast of 4.5%. The monthly CPI is now in the 3s and is in the 2s on an annualised basis.

I was one of the optimists on the CPI dropping more quickly than most thought so i am glad to be proved right. Too many people ,including the RBA, conflated a supply side shock with excess demand.

I think I can say with confidence rates will drop this year perhaps early in the financial year if the quarterly CPI continues to show inflation dropping.

the RBA must be worried they went too far in raising rates more so because of the government modest contractionary fiscal policy.

Do people actually understand what sexualing means

 An incident occurred yearday when an obscure victorian MP's  picture was changed to make her boobs bigger than they actually are.

My view is they made an unattractive person less unattractive. She has tatts for petes sake! I heard an acadmic say the photo sexualisid the MP. Sexualising has a definition.

To say this was sexualising the woman is laughable. For a start you cannot sexualise an unattractive woman and we are only talking about women on this subject. You cannot sexualise a very fat woman or a very thin woman for that matter. Let make this bi-partisan. You cannot sexualise Linda Reynolds not Catherine King.

It was much ado about nothing.

Stage 3 tax cuts

 The Federal government has changed the stage 3 tax cuts,  Stephen Hamilton believes the changes has made them better in quality terms.

I tend to agree. I figure most people expect promises to be broken more so if you are improving the situation. I see the criticism has gotten to the stupid with David Littleproud saying $190k is not a lot of money!

If it were me I would put priority on budget repair and thus getting rid of the structural budget deficit. The tax cuts which were legislated when no-one had any idea of what the economy would be like was was simply madness.

We have scared politicians at present who lack the confidence to argue a case in public. Alas

I'm wrong Test cricket is alive and well

 I have been very gloomy about test cricket of late.

I may have been wrong. 

First the Windies were magniant in beating Australia. Joseph has been a revelation. Bowling almost 150k in his 11 over with a broken toe and wiping out the Australian batting. Sinclair with is batting, bowling and fielding. Indeed the utter exuberance of the windies team is catching. You simply want to watch and catch the vibe. And to think they had only 3 and 1/3 test bowlers and still beat us.

It was a victory for the ages. If they find another fast bowler and then get some steel in their batting they will be formidable.

The Poms beating India was not the same as they have been consistent since adopting 'bazball', It is highly entertaining for spectators ( both batting and bowling.) Stokes showed why I rate him so highly as a captain. He learned from his mistakes of the first innings, made strategic field placings, Inspired Hartley to a match winning performance after being hit everywhere in the first innings and what about the run out.

Now we need Pakistan, SA, Sri Lanka and the Kiwis to improve!

Around the Traps 26/1/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dennis Muller on antoinette-lattouf-sacking-shows-how-the-abc-has-been-damaged-by-successive-coalition-governments , as-new-abc-chair-one-of-kim-williams-challenges-will-be-to-stiffen-the-organisations-spine
• Mick Ryan on australian-strategy-improved-aid-ukraine
• Frank Bongiorno on as-morrison-quits-parliament-his-legacy-has-little-to-recommend-it
• Peter Martin on why-australian-workers-true-cost-of-living-has-climbed-far-faster-than-weve-been-told
• Michael Clarke on we-need-talk-about-strategic-competition
• Greg Jericho on old-stage-three-tax-cuts-dead-long-live-labors-new-policy-which-most-australians-will-cheer
• Deborah Lupton on its-4-years-since-the-first-covid-case-in-australia-heres-how-our-pandemic-experiences-have-changed-over-time
• Stephen Hamilton on the-2-main-arguments-against-redesigning-the-stage-3-tax-cuts-are-wrong-heres-why

OZ Climate

• solar-farms-face-large-and-unpredictable-revenue-swings-as-mlfs-strike-again
  
• nuclear-goes-backwards-again-as-wind-and-solar-enjoy-another-year-of-record-growth
  
• kalgoorlie-turns-to-renewables-as-fossil-fuel-backup-fails-after-storms
  
• solar-farms-and-native-grasses-create-pollinator-havens-and-boost-biodiversity-study-funds
  
• queensland-smashes-demand-records-in-heatwave-and-solar-eats-coals-lunch-again
  
• record-renewables-drive-prices-down-but-coal-states-still-the-most-expensive
  
• aemo-provides-connection-approval-for-another-two-grid-forming-big-batteries
  
• Christian Jacob on did-the-bom-get-it-wrong-on-the-hot-dry-summer-no-predicting-chaotic-systems-is-probability-not-certainty
• Peter Hannan on australia-wholesale-power-prices-drop-by-almost-half-as-carbon-emissions-drop

Northern America

• Justin Fox on is-new-york-city-more-dangerous-than-rural-america Thanks Brad
• the garden of forking paths on the-rise-of-political-remoras Thanks Nick
• Institutional Economics on why-trump-47-will-be-perversely-positive-for-$US assets
• econbrowser on the-non-atavistic-component-republican-economic-sentiment-as-sentiment-jumps
• noahopinin on does-the-yield-curve-tell-us-a-recession-is-coming-soon,  the-california-forever-project-is-a-great-project, a-vote-for-trump-is-a-vote-for-chaos
• Bill Haskell on high-corporate-profits-are-were-a-main-driver-of-ongoing-inflation
• Dennis Aftergut and Austin Sarat on clarence-thomas-ethics-inquiry-underway
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-texas-homeland-security-razor-wire-eagle-pass-biden, supreme-court-protest-mckesson-doe-fifth-circuit-first-amendment
• newdeal democrat on attacks-on-red-sea-shipping-and-its-tie-to-us-energy-consumption
• David Frum on joe-biden-democrats-primary-election
• Sussan Glasser on the-2024-republican-primary-was-over-before-it-began
• James Hamilton on another-solid-gdp-report
• the conversable economist on unions-facts-and-fluff

Europe

• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana and Marlyarenko on ukraine-war-talk-of-russian-spring-offensive-raises-fears-that-kyiv-is-ill-prepared-to-face-it
• essays concerning on insulate-britain-yes-but-by-how-much
• Doug Muir on the-kosovo-war-25-years-later-and-so-to-war
• Mainly Macro on 2024-will-be-year-uk-fiscal-policy-became-a-sad-joke
• Christopher Browning on fragile-resilient-weimar-germany-1923

Asia

• Peter Greste on israel-now-ranks-among-the-worlds-leading-jailers-of-journalists-we-dont-know-why-theyre-behind-bars
• Fred Kaplan on israel-netanyahu-biden-gaza-peace-egypt-qatar
• Sarah Phillips on why-us-strikes-will-only-embolden-the-houthis-not-stop-their-attacks-on-ships-in-the-red-sea
• Richard Heydarian on south-china-sea-formula-philippines
• Sairo Bano on india-s-newfound-assertiveness-feature-great-game-south-asia
• Grant Wyeth on taiwan-what-good-status-quo
• Sophie Yi on china-s-evolving-approach-multipolar-world-order-2024
• Terrence Guay on where-do-israel-and-hamas-get-their-weapons
• Ved Shinde on cartographic-aggression-playing-it-china-way
• Joseph Webster and Zoe Leung on can-china-use-offshore-wind-break-its-reliance-foreign-lng-coal
• noahopinion on will-china-squander-its-moment-in-the-sun
• Ben Rich on the-us-is-getting-embroiled-in-yet-another-middle-east-conflict-it-should-increase-pressure-on-israel-instead
• Harris Amjad on squeeze-bangladesh-s-garment-industry

Wonk

• Percy Allan on there-are-4-economic-scenarios-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-ive-reluctantly-picked-one
• Tim Harford on the-rights-and-wrongs-of-copying
• Tyler Cowen on will-milei-succeed-in-argentina , quick-tour-of-argentinas-fiscal-deficit-from-my-email-anonymous-author
• Melissa Wheeler et al on what-does-the-common-good-actually-mean-our-research-found-common-ground-across-the-political-divide
• Alex Tabbarok on rent-controls
• the conversable economist on the-30-solution-gains-from-trade
• Suman Majundar et al on the-emergence-of-jn-1-is-an-evolutionary-step-change-in-the-covid-pandemic-why-is-this-significant

General

• Sarah Webb and Rebecca Allen on the-solar-system-used-to-have-nine-planets-maybe-it-still-does-heres-your-catch-up-on-space-today

Climate

• ocean acidification on a-meta-analysis-reveals-global-change-stressors-potentially-aggravate-mercury-toxicity-in-marine-biota
• skeptical science on give-science-denial-the-flicc , at-a-glance-polar-bears
• Wesley Morgan on its-not-game-over-its-game-on-why-2024-is-an-inflection-point-for-the-climate-crisis
• Neil Malan and Moniyan Roughan on when-floodwater-reaches-the-sea-it-can-leave-a-50-metre-thick-layer-of-brown-water-and-cause-real-problems

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• regarding-the-use-of-common-sense-when-evaluating-research-claims
  
• whats-the-problem-math-snobs-or-rich-dudes-who-take-themselves-too-seriously-and-are-enabled-in-that-by-the-news-media
  
• michael-wiebe-has-several-new-replications-written-up-on-his-site
  
• my-view-is-that-if-i-can-show-that-a-result-was-cooked-and-that-doing-it-correctly-does-not-yield-the-answer-the-authors-claimed-then-the-result-is-discredited-what-i-hear-instead-is-the-f
  
• learning-from-mistakes-my-online-talk-for-the-american-statistical-association-230pm-tues-30-jan-2024
  
• resources-for-teaching-and-learning-survey-sampling-from-scott-keeter-at-pew-research
  
• mister-p-and-stan-go-to-bangladesh
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• perspectives-on-china
  
• the future of the factory

vox wonk

• market-reforms-do-them-do-not-ignore-effects-income-inequality
  
• nonlinear-impact-retail-energy-supply-shocks-inflation-and-economic-activity
  
• experience-war-shapes-communities-and-future-wars
  
• societal-value-moral-behaviour
  
• economic-consequences-political-pressure-federal-reserve
  
• how-ai-can-undermine-financial-stability
  
• models-used-inform-policy-are-lacking-natural-capital
  
• lower-inequality-critical-measure-align-development-and-climate-goals
  
• money-growth-and-post-pandemic-inflation-surge-updating-evidence
  
• paying-news-what-google-and-meta-owe-publishers
  
• aim-far-act-now-strengthening-investment-and-economic-integration-revitalise-growth
  
• paying-news-what-google-and-meta-owe-publishers
  
• how-inflation-volatility-matters-pass-through-supply-shocks-consumer-prices
  

Does Nikki Haley have a chance to be the Republican candidate for President?

 Donald Trump comfortably won the New Hampshire primary. It is clear the Republican party is now a cult with Trump as its leader. Magas simply ignore any criticism of Trump.

So does this mean Haley should give up?

NO

IF and it is a very BIG IF, certain ducks line up then she would not only be the Republican candidate she would win the election.

How so.

• Consider Trump mental acuity is rapidly deteriorating. He repeatedly confuses people and events. Under the pressure of a campaign this will increase.
• Abortion is a massive issue with new laws meaning rape victims having to have babies of rapists.
• by the time of the election Trump will be a convicted felon in three cases. One of sexual assault and libel, one of corporate fraud and one on trying to upend and election result. As the evidence flows then this could well be more harmful to Trump.

All three are a big turn of to both independent and swing voters as exit polls for the New Hampshire primary has shown.

The Republican party could change their candidate under these conditions and replace Trump with Haley.

The Democrats could not with Biden and suddenly It is Haley against Biden and it is a new ballgame.

Haley merely has to show what happened to trump could occur to Biden.

She then wins easily.

Yeah it is a tad farfetched but it could occur.

Pot Pouri

 There is a whole bunch of things around so here goes.

Scott Morrison

He is resigning from parliament. It took him that long to find a job. He was always announcing things but this caught up with him in the last election as it always would. He won an election and still to this day has no idea of why and how it happened. Neither do we as well!

Stage 3 tax cuts

No-one responsibly legislates tax cuts that far in advance. The ALP should have opposed them but were too scared politically ( in other words they had no confidence in advancing a political argument). They are still too large.

Solar kicks ass

Queensland is in the midst of a heatwave and solar energy is smashing demand records. Who would have thunked that

Preview of things to come

Lisa Stefanik, she who has no idea of what intifada means, was asked whether Trump had sexually attacked a woman. She said he hadn't thus saying the jury who heard all the evidence got it wrong.Trump then banned the journalist who asked the question. This and being found guilty of fraud will hurt Trump. He also confused Haley with Pelosi. MAGA supporters wil ldeny his obvious mental decline bot tohers won't!

Asian Cup

We again were unimpressive in the Asian cup. I do not understand why Arnold is picking players who wil lnot play in the world cup. The major problem is we create very few chances for all the possession we have. We got better in the last world cup BUT not the last Asian cup.   Hmm

Australia Day

Australia became a nation on January 1 not 26. Why do we celebrate Australia day on the wrong day!

A bit more on statistics

 Andrew Gelman has a great blog which helps everyone keep up to date on statistics.

This is typical. The other great thing are the comments on the blog.

what has the tests told us thus far

 Both Pakistan and the Windies hadv only average bowling attacks. At best they had 3 and 1/2 test bowlers, none of whom could be called great , yet except for the first test against Pakistan the australian batsmen struggled against them. ( it makes you think that South Africa should have done much better last season.)

It must be said the pitches have been much better with bowlers being much more competitive against the bat. Hooray the flat tracks are gone. It makes for better viewing. We can also see how  much quality there is in the batting. The answer is not much. In the last four tests we only saw one century and that entailed a hellva lot of luck.

It must be said Smith, Williamson and Kholi are all in decline. The tour of India ( starting on Jan 29) will determine if Root is as well.

Test cricket would be much healthier if both Pakistan and the windioes picked their best test sides. Larger payments for playing should be on the ICC's agenda.

I shall watch with interest to see how the windies go in the pink ball test in Brisbane.

Around the Traps 19/1/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adrian Esterman on covid-is-surging-in-australia-and-only-1-in-5-older-adults-are-up-to-date-with-their-boosters
• Greg Jericho on australia-housing-market-value-rise-interest-rates-pandemic-abs-data
• Alastair Sisson on the-yimby-movement-is-spreading-around-the-world-what-does-it-mean-for-australias-housing-crisis
• croaking cassandra on avoiding-scrutiny
• Antony Green on background-on-federal-by-election-swings

OZ Climate

• twenty-years-on-how-is-australias-first-batch-of-wind-farms-performing
  
• australia-called-out-for-grid-queues-policy-gaps-in-race-to-triple-global-renewables
  
• court-rejects-solar-farm-for-wrecking-a-towns-view-poor-consultation
  
• is-flotation-out-of-the-race-offshore-wind-rumours-swirl-as-gippsland-decision-looms
  
• rooftop-solar-has-key-benefits-and-one-critical-weakness-over-large-scale-solar-farms
  
• fossil-lobby-poll-claims-voters-want-nuclear-data-shows-its-the-last-thing-australias-grid-needs
  
• the-promise-and-peril-of-ccs-a-technology-that-must-be-viewed-with-extreme-skepticism
  
• ark-progresses-plan-for-solar-farm-next-to-worlds-largest-eight-hour-battery
  
• sunshine-state-milestone-as-queenslanders-install-one-million-solar-rooftops
• Robin Smit on why-electric-trucks-are-our-best-bet-to-cut-road-transport-emissions

Northern America

• the big picture on cpi-increase-is-based-on-bad-shelter-data Thanks Brad
• new deal democrat on producer-prices-flat-commodities-decline-shelter-is-sole-inflationary-pressure
• Constance Grady on plagiarism-claudine-gay-neri-oxman-bill-ackman
• Mathew Lebo on dont-count-biden-out-january-polls-are-historically-unreliable
• Ian Tyrell on is-america-enduring-a-slow-civil-war-jeff-sharlet-visits-trump-rallies-a-celebrity-megachurch-and-the-manosphere-to-find-out
• Eric Levitz on trump-iowa-frontrunner-january-6-insurrection-gop-primary-polls-results
• the conversable economist on some-economics-for-martin-luther-king-jr-day
• Louise Scheiner on the-pandemic-inflation-episode-is-still-unwinding Thanks Brad
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-democrats-president-chevron-precedent , supreme-court-texas-border-patrol-standoff
• Dennis Aftergut and Laurence Tribe on judge-aileen-cannon-trump-classifed-sabotage
• David Frum on donald-trump-republican-nomination-ukraine
• Tom Nichols on trump-wants-revengeand-so-does-his-base
• noahopinion on is-us-industrial-policy-learning-from-its-mistakes
• newdeal democrat on december-real-retail-sales-the-good-economic-news-keeps-on-coming
• Alex Tabarokk on get-out-of-jail-cards-2
• Aja Romano on politics-fandom-trump-fans-toxic-stan-culture-conspiracies
• Adam Richardson on phony-originalism-florida-abortion-rights-desantis

Europe

• Robert Waldmann on naval-lessons-from-the-russia-ukraine-war
• Doug Muir on the-kosovo-war-25-years-later-things-fall-apart
• stumbling and mumbling on how-our-institutions-work
• econbrowser on russia-policy-rate-up-oil-prices-down
• renew economy on surge-in-heat-pumps-and-rooftop-solar-drives-record-uptake-for-uk-homes
• back of mind on the-thing-that-makes-the-thing-in-itself Thanks Brad
• Mathew Powell on ukraine-war-why-kyiv-is-cock-a-hoop-about-shooting-down-two-russian-aircraft

Asia

• Kai-Ping Huang on in-re-electing-its-government-taiwan-has-kept-the-status-quo-but-the-victory-hides-a-transformed-political-landscape
• Sojin Lim on north-korea-ramps-up-military-rhetoric-as-kim-gives-up-on-reunification-with-south
• Amira Jadoon and Nakissa Jahanbani on iran-terror-blast-highlights-success-and-growing-risk-of-isis-k-regional-strategy
• Marina Zhang on vietnam-s-pivot
• Natasha Lindstaedt on the-houthis-four-things-you-will-want-to-know-about-the-yemeni-militia-targeted-by-uk-and-us-military-strikes
• Khang Vu on new-year-same-old-story-korean-peninsula-2024
• Robert Carlin and Seigfried Hecker on is-kim-jong-un-preparing-for-war Thanks Tyler
• John Nagle and Drew Mikhael on war-in-the-middle-east-has-put-lebanon-on-the-brink-of-economic-disaster
• Andrew Seith on three-years-coup-what-could-help-myanmar-s-opposition-movement
• Isaac Chotiner on q-and-a/how-israels-inspection-process-is-obstructing-aid-delivery
• Aviroop Gupta on why-a-controversial-hindu-temple-in-india-could-prove-pivotal-to-narendra-modis-party-in-upcoming-elections
• Xuijian Peng on chinas-population-shrinks-again-and-could-more-than-halve-heres-what-that-means

Wonk

• thinking about on on-tyranny Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-makes-a-good-prophecy
• noahopinion on world-commerce-is-dependent-on-americas-fading-naval-power , bitcoin-is-a-special-interest-group
• the conversable economist on professional-sports-and-the-lack-of-local-economic-payoffs, economics-is-for-the-birds , aging-and-long-term-care-an-international-view
• Sam Roggeveen on manager-internet-controller-world
• ManMohan Sohdi on boeing-needs-to-get-real-the-737-max-should-probably-be-scrapped
• Paul Taucher and Dean Aszkielowitz on south-africa-has-made-its-genocide-case-against-israel-in-court-heres-what-both-sides-said-and-what-happens-next
• Mainly Macro on why-centre-right-has-helped-cause-drift-to-the-far-right-in-the-west
• Sarah Schiffling and Mathew Tickle on red-sea-crisis-suez-canal-is-not-the-only-choke-point-that-threatens-to-disrupt-global-supply-chains
• Karen Horn on challenging the cliches Thanks Brad
• digressions impressions on friedrich-engels-foucault-on-chicago-economics Thanks Brad
• Selwyn Parker on drought-war-hit-choke-points

General

• Scarlett Howard on do-they-see-what-we-see-bees-and-wasps-join-humans-in-being-tricked-by-illusions-of-quantity
• Chris Kirkland and Anthony Clarke on 565-million-years-old-some-of-the-oldest-uk-fossils-are-eerily-similar-to-famous-australian-ones

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-december-global-temperature-down-from-november
• open mind on nasa-on-tilt, polar-vortex
• real climate on not-just-another-dot-on-the-graph, not-just-another-dot-on-the-graph-part-ii
• ocean acidification on functional-changes-across-marine-habitats-due-to-ocean-acidification
• econbrowser on northern-hemisphere-land-temperature-anomaly-through-2023
• and Then Theres Physics on how-to-cavil-like-cranks
• Andrew Freedman on greenland-ice-sheet-lost-20-times-more-mass

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• why-isnt-barack-obama-out-there-giving-political-speeches
  
• pinker-was-right-i-was-wrong
  
• and-while-i-dont-really-want-a-back-and-forth
  
• a-feedback-loop-can-destroy-correlation-this-idea-comes-up-in-many-places
  
• this-post-is-not-really-about-aristotle
  
• bad-stuff-going-down-at-the-american-sociological-association
  
• storytelling-and-scientific-understanding-my-talks-with-thomas-basboll-at-johns-hopkins-on-26-apr
  
• Kaiser Fung on when-will-we-get-more-and-broader-testing

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• how-workers-and-firms-meet-labour-market-and-why-it-matters
  
• refugees-citizens-understanding-labour-market-returns-naturalisation
  
• importing-fentanyl-crisis
  
• incentives-consumers-act-tax-auditors
  
• unremunerated-reserves-eurosystem-part-1-heads-i-win-tails-you-lose
  
• deadwood-labour-effects-eliminating-employment-protection-among-older-workers
  
• unremunerated-reserves-eurosystem-part-2-tax-incidence-and-deposit-relocation-risks
  
• china-worlds-sole-manufacturing-superpower-line-sketch-rise
  
• macroprudential-approach-managing-climate-risk
  
• china-worlds-sole-manufacturing-superpower-line-sketch-rise
  
• homeward-bound-how-migrants-seek-out-familiar-climates
  
• implementing-trade-facilitation-agreement-should-boost-trade-among-african
  

Bob Dylan

 The first time Dylan went electric at a folk festival. You can hear the boos! Bloomfield on guitar is amazing.

Lets make a forecast on US election

 I have said previously polling out now is useless at telling us who will win the US Presidential election. I have academic support it appears!

So with nothing to go on let me make a prediction.

Joe Biden will win. Why?

• In every special election democrats have gained significant swings. It just occurred in Florida!
• Abortion is still a strong issue. with one possible death due to anti-abortion laws there and a legal battle about possible poor scenarios for some women and with several states voting for it this issue is a winner for Democrats. It makes you ask why are they sooo mad on this topic. Make the mother's life THE priority and it goes away
• Donald Trump is a vote loser. He lost the vote in 22016 pretty easily and lost two mid terms as well , one biden should have been thrashed in  and lost 2023 pretty easily.
• When the election come around he will be convicted of sexual assault, company fraud and his case on January 6 should be decided. ( loch him up lock him up!!)
• Trump says a lot that is great for his base BUT it goes over like a lead balloon for anyone else.

So I have gone out on a limb but if I am right Trump will be in a gaol cell.

Can you have a jewish state?

 I thought I might explore if one can have a jewish state or islamic, buddhist, hindu for that matter. Please note only biblically illiterate evangelicals in the USA believe you can have a christian state. If you are a christian a theocracy is impossible. for a Jew it was tried and it failed badly as most Jews were not believers in God!

The one reason you cannot have a Jewish state ( or the rest) is that you either implicitly or explicitly make non-Jewish people second rate citizens. We can see this in Israel today but also in Pakistan or Iran for example.

In a democracy all people are supposed to be equal. This cannot be in a state for one religion.

Having said all that Israel exists as do Pakistan and Iran. We all recognise them as countries.

Therein lies the problem.

Is not selling goods for 'Australia day' woke?

 Both Woolworths and aldi have announced they will no longer be selling goods for 'Australia day'.

Peter Dutton criticised this decision by saying it was a 'woke' decision. Was it?

Woke is ill defined.  It appears to mean anything the person thinks  does.Ron De Santis in the USA is agin it but cannot tell us what it is. 

However both woolworths and aldi have made a commercial decision. Both have said sales have declined over tome. It is important to note both com-anies rely on high turnover to make margin as profit margins in most liones are very thin. Both companies make decisions to not have various products because of this very reason as any person who uses a supermarket know.

A very ironic  point top make here is 'Australia day' does NOT occur when Australia became a nation january 1 but on January 26 when NSW became a colony.

Thus Peter Dutton wants companies to sell goods to lose money to celebrate a day that has no foundation!

Is that woke?

Around the Traps 12/1/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jayne Persian on australia-is-still-reckoning-with-a-shameful-legacy-the-resettlement-of-suspected-war-criminals-after-wwii
• Lachlan Johnson on senate-estimates-and-inquiries-what-are-they-whats-the-difference-and-why-do-we-have-them
• John Quiggin on australias-cost-of-living-crisis-isnt-about-the-price-of-groceries-its-about-the-distribution-of-wealth
• Sanjoy Paul on attacks-on-cargo-ships-in-the-red-sea-threaten-australias-trade-we-need-a-plan-b
• croaking cassandra on 40-years-on , productivity-woes-continued
• Alastair Sisson on rent-regulations-are-no-silver-bullet-but-they-would-help-make-renting-fairer
• Greg Jericho on retail-spending-figures-australia-reserve-bank-rba-interest-rates-announcement
• Adrian Esterman on covid-is-surging-in-australia-and-only-1-in-5-older-adults-are-up-to-date-with-their-boosters

OZ climate

• Anna Bruce on as-australias-net-zero-transition-threatens-to-stall-rooftop-solar-could-help-provide-the-power-we-need
• how-to-stop-wasting-cheap-renewables-and-drive-a-faster-transition
  
• major-blow-to-offshore-wind-as-critical-port-project-ruled-environmentally-unacceptable
  
• australia-nears-half-way-mark-to-82-renewables-as-rooftop-records-continue-to-tumble
  
• how-big-a-share-of-our-electricity-needs-can-rooftop-solar-provide-its-complicated
  
• after-a-year-of-smashing-records-will-2024-be-the-year-we-take-rooftop-solar-seriously
  
• australias-task-is-clear-build-more-wind-and-solar-lnps-task-anything-but-wind-and-solar
  
• big-solar-records-round-out-the-year-for-nsw-and-queensland
  

Northern America

• the dig on michael-lewis-is-wrong-about-the-profitability-of FTX US -and- FTX trading Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on tim-duy-of-sgh-macro-advisors-also-thinks-the FED-is-behind-the -curve
• John McHorter on harvard-claudine-gay Thanks Nick
• Tyler Harper on claudine-gay-harvard-plagiarism Thanks Nick
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-abortion-emtala-idaho-emergency , supreme-court-chevron-deference-loper-bright-relentless-raimondo , supreme-court-donald-trump-self-executing-devillier-texas-takings-constitution
• Molly Omstead on january-6-insurrection-mike-johnson-evangelical-christian-apostolic-reformation
• Dahlia Lithwick on jan-6-going-into-another-election
• the conversable economist on what-is-the-weirdness-of-the-job-openings-data-telling-us
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-colorado-ballot-supreme-court-date, republican-abortion-bans-pregnant-women-deaths
• Molly Omstead on january-6-insurrection-mike-johnson-evangelical-christian-apostolic-reformation
• Dereck Muller on us-supreme-court-decision-on-trump-colorado-ballot-case-monumental-for-democracy-itself-not-just-2024-presidential-election
• Dennis Aftergut on jan-6-trump-trial-testimony-insurrection
• Fred Kaplan on secretary-of-defense-lloyd-austin-disappeared-hospitalized-biden-cabinet
• noahopinion on peoples-park-and-the-great-american-infill
• Nitish Pahwa on bill-ackman-neri-oxman-plagiarism-wikipedia-insider-harvard-mit
• George Conway on trump-immunity-hearing-2020-election
• Amy Sorkin on trumps-bizarre-immunity-claims-should-serve-as-a-warning
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04

Europe

• Unherd on the propaganda that damned Ukraine Thanks Nick
• Doug Muir on the-kosovo-war-25-years-later-bosnian-prelude
• Tyler Cowen on kamil-kovar-on-the-german-debt-brake-from-my-email
• renew economy on drop-in-coal-power-sends-german-emissions-to-lowest-level-in-70-years
• Mainly Macro on if-next-government-isnt-diverting-to-investment-then-it--is-giving-up-on-our-future
• Joshua Yaffa on what-could-tip-the-balance-in-the-war-in-ukraine
• Ben Sunak on rishi-sunaks-reputation-for-being-tetchy-has-been-seen-in-previous-prime-ministers-and-it-doesnt-end-well
• Sergio Miller on how-did-russian-defence-industry-perform-in-2023 Thanks Tyler

Asia

• sinocism on new-minister-of-defense Thanks Brad
• Tim Colebatch on the-singapore-grip Thanks Nick
• Joshua Keating on taiwan-china-president-war-xi-jinping-asia-semiconductors-chips
• Ellen Ioannes on yemen-houthi-red-sea-united-states-navy-coalition-maersk-hamas-gaza-israel, iraq-coalition-iran-isis-united-states-israel-palestine-drone
• Dylan Sullivan et al on chinas-capitalist-reforms-are-said-to-have-moved-800-million-out-of-extreme-poverty-new-data-suggests-the-opposite
• Ian Parmeter on after-3-months-of-devastation-in-the-israel-hamas-war-is-anyone-winning
• Tim Mann on indonesia-is-one-of-the-worlds-largest-democracies-but-its-weaponising-defamation-laws-to-smother-dissent
• Lewis Eves on china-xis-new-years-address-wasnt-a-threat-against-taiwan-it-was-a-strategic-move-for-legitimacy
• Amnon Aran on benjamin-netanyahus-biggest-problem-in-negotiating-an-end-to-war-with-hamas-and-hezbollah-may-be-his-own-government

Wonk

• Ian Buruma on right-wing-populists-stoke-xenophobic-panic Thanks Brad
• Sarah Butler on how-to-tell-a-serf-from-a-slave-in-medieval-england Thanks Brad
• Institutional Economics on the-inflation-effects-of-quantitative-easing
• noahopinion on how-much-of-modern-academia-is-waste , techno-optimism-for-2024
• Mark Thoma on the-many-faces-of-adam-smith
• thinking about on on-tyranny Thanks Brad
• the permanent problem on productivity-growth-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly Thanks Brad
• Tyler Cowen on what-if-you-have-a-favorable-as-shift-and-a-negative-ad-shift , political-business-cycle-theory-has-been-neutered
• Donald Rothwell on south-africa-is-taking-israel-to-court-for-genocide-in-palestine-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-in-gaza
• Khalid Koser on default-not-design-end-asylum-consensus
• Fred Kaplan on isis-iran-bombing-is-the-group-still-a-threat
• Lauren Kane on new-money-medieval-merchants
• Bill Haskell on krugmans-latest-economic-opinion

General

• Brad Tucker on why-is-the-universe-ripping-itself-apart-a-new-study-of-exploding-stars-shows-dark-energy-may-be-more-complicated-than-we-thought

Climate

• Open Mind on global-warming-picks-up-speed, how-far-to-the-1-5c-limit, 2-fast-2-furious , costly-weather
• Real Climate on annual-gmsat-predictions-and-enso
• Skeptical Science on conversation-about-the-scientific-consensus
• Moyhu on graphics-to-show-magnitude-of-2023-warming
• Dana Bergstrom on a-heatwave-in-antarctica-totally-blew-the-minds-of-scientists-they-set-out-to-decipher-it-and-here-are-the-results
• ocean acidification on combined-effect-of-anthropogenic-and-natural-carbon-on-acidification-of-the-subsurface-ocean-water-at-the-tip-of-the-antarctic-peninsula
• Albert Van Djik on how-2023s-record-heat-worsened-droughts-floods-and-bushfires-around-the-world

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• what-to-trust-in-the-newspaper-example-of-the-simple-nudge-that-raised-median-donations-by-80
  
• since-jeffrey-epstein-is-in-the-news-again
  
• ben-shneidermans-golden-rules-of-interface-design
  
• french-bio-lab-research-scandal
  
• bayesians-are-frequentists
  
• whats-up-with-spring-blooming
  
• god-is-in-every-leaf-of-every-tree-coming-book-movies-edition
  
• the-appeal-of-new-york-times-columnist-david-brooks-yeah-i-know-this-all-sounds-like-a-nutty-its-wheels-within-wheels-man-sort-of-argument-but-im-serious-here
  
• prediction-isnt-everything-but-everything-is-prediction
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• defeated-by-this-book
  
• a-taste-of-economics
  

Vox Wonk

• oil-price-shocks-real-time
  
• nudged-roller-coaster
  
• why-middle-class-benefits-from-inflation
  
• lack-recovery-post-ice-age-cohorts-japan
  
• central-banks-voice-rising-above-roar-gunfire
  
• european-energy-crisis-and-consequences-global-natural-gas-market
  
• return-industrial-policy-data
  

Inflation continues to fall

 The ABS released the monthly CPI yesterday. It continues to fall as most people thought it would. given it is a supply shock and not excess demand it is taking longer to fall.

I read Stephen kirchner say after the budget that the ABS has been given the money to have the Monthly CPI the same as the quarterly one. It has not occurred as yet. Is it going to happen or not?  It would help everyone if it happened VERY soon.

Tamino is baack!

 Tamino at Open Mind seems to have been on a holiday. No more

• global-warming-picks-up-speed
  
• how-far-to-the-1-5c-limit
  
• 2-fast-2-furious
  

Australia V Pakistan

 The series is over and to no surprise Australia won 3-0.

Why no surprise?   For one thing if you know the australian batting lineup is susceptible tp pace and you let a 150k bowler play in the big bash and not the test series then your bowling attack is considerably lessened. Another fast bowler di not play. Afridi their best bowler bowled about 10k less here than in Pakistan when we played them there. Also he possesses a great inswinger which disappeared starc like here. Their main offspinner is a pie thrower with their part-time offspinner being much better. Where was their leg spinner?  Kirmani was not selected in the first test yet he is clearly the superior wicketkeeper and batsman.

Can someone tell me why the opening batsmen had gaping holes between bat and pad when every man and his dog knew Starc would swing some balls in his first spell. In the same vein why was anyone waving their bat at balls cutting towards slip?

Australia lost their opportunity to give another opening batsman some time. Warner should have never been selected. An average in the 20s over the last 3 years which includes a 200 showed that in spades.

A fast bowling lineup is aging and clearly found it hard to get to just 140k. Lyons was as unimpressive as usual. The Series against two aging teams in India and then England will be interesting.

Der Kaiser

Franz Beckenbauer dies last night. He was a football great  but overrated as a libero as his defence was shown up by Cruyff in the 74 final. It was a tragedy in 66 he marked Charlton instead of being the industrious mid fielder he was. In 1970 he was cruelly injured in a shocking tackle against Italy in the semi-final thus Brazil payed Italy and not West Germany in the final.

The remarkable decline of Alan Dershowitz

 Alan Dershowitz  used to be a reasonable legal scholar and lawyer. He has declined remarkably. You could say he has Giulianied but without the baggage of his past. At Trump's impeachment hearing in the Senate he was embarrassing.

Another that comes to mind is Jonathan Turley who Fox can call on to be a trump apologist on anything. He says Jan 6 was not an insurrection for example.

All very sad but unnerving given how Trump treats democracy. Without wanting to wander into godwins law it is highly reminiscent of how legal institutions simply threw their hands with Hitler . Remember he should have been shunted off to Austria after the Munich putsch

Around the Traps 5/1/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris McMillan on no-climate-for-cricket-how-global-warming-is-putting-the-heat-on-nzs-summer-game
• Jenny Gordon on economically-australia-has-been-lucky-what-matters-now-is-what-we-do-next
• David Lee on cabinet-papers-2003-howard-government-sends-australia-into-the-iraq-war
• Joshua Black on storm-clouds-ahead-scandals-that-have-rocked-australian-politics

OZ climate

• massive-1500-mw-wind-project-in-nsw-gets-planning-approval-first-in-nearly-three-years
  
• john-howard-killed-emissions-trading-plan-in-2003-after-industry-lobbying-cabinet-papers
  
• rooftop-solar-pv-gorilla-roars-again-meets-all-demand-in-one-state-in-holiday-peak
  

Northern America

• Brad De Long on civic-friendship
• can we still govern on the-campaign-to-remove-the-president-of-Harvard-is-about-DEI-not-plagiarism Thanks Nick
• Russell Contreras on trump-poisoning-the-blood-racism
• Austin Sarat and Dennis Aftergut on trump-special-counsel-jack-smith-january-6-trial-motion
• David Frum on trump-maine-ballot
• Amy Sorkin on should-the-fourteenth-amendment-be-used-to-disqualify-trump
• noahopinion on blue-states-dont-build , hispanics-as-the-new-irish
• the conversable economist on national-security-as-an-excuse-for-tariffs-garlic-and-scissors , high-us-health-care-spending-higher-prices-or-higher-quantities
• Zack Beauchamp on 2024-election-republican-primary-death-threats-trump
• Todd Phillips on nra-bad-news-supreme-court-vullo
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-ballot-insurrection-fourteenth-amendment-colorado-anderson . abortion-supreme-court-emtala-fifth-circuit-texas-becerra
• Franklin Foer on trump-second-term-mafia-state
• Robert Katzberg on supreme-court-pro-trump-ballot-ruling
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-abortion-case-texas-dobbs
• Jeannie Gersen on could-a-trump-win-put-his-running-mate-in-office
• Jeet Heer on rudy-giuliani-racism-media-tragedy
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-abortion-case-texas-dobbs
• Nitish Pahwa on jeffrey-epstein-list-alan-dershowitz-hamas-hannity

Europe

• renew economy on germanys-coal-power-production-drops-to-lowest-level-in-60-years-in-2023-after-nuclear-exit

Asia

• noahopinion on what-the-solow-model-can-teach-us-about-china
• Trang Nguyen on vietnam-s-challenge-wean-coal
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-supreme-court-judicial-overhaul-reasonableness-basic-law-overturn
• Isaac Chotiner on gaza-is-starving, whats-behind-israels-crackdown-in-the-west-bank
• Genevieve Donnellan-May on multilateral-cooperation-can-improve-south-asia-s-water-woes

Wonk

• Veronica Guerrierri et al on monetary policy in times of structural reallocation Thanks Brad
• Kaushik Basu on biggest-threats-to-2024-economic-outlook Thanks Brad
• Market sentiment on the-problem-with-magnificent-7 Thanks Brad
• After Babel on antisemitism-on-campus Thanks Nick
• Juan Rajas and Geoff Shullenburger on why-chile-couldn-t-bury-neoliberalism Thanks Nick
• Marina Zhang on lithium-lightest-metal-earth-carries-heavy-geopolitical-weight
• Uneasy Money on mattei-misjudges-hawtrey
• Jessica Genauer on will-the-world-see-more-wars-or-unrest-in-2024-here-are-5-hotspots-to-watch
• Ellen Ioannes on south-africa-israel-genocide-case-gaza-hamas-palestinians
• Tim Harford on why-the-breakdown-of-the-9-5-job-is-making-us-lonelier
• Mainly Macro on the-case-for-increasing-government-debt-to-green-is great
• Sandwichman on lost-in-translation-slow-down-by-kohei
• the conversable economist on maybe-studying-economics-does-not-make-you-selfish
• James Gleik on the-fate-of-free-will-free-agents-kevin-mitchell
• noahopinion on toward-a-shallower-future
• stumbling and mumbling on on-high-wage-jobs

General

• Jonti Horner on want-to-get-into-stargazing-a-professional-astronomer-explains-where-to-start
• 
  

Climate

• Umair Irfan on 2023-warmest-year-cop28-climate-change-science
• Peter Sinclair on renewables-only-getting-started
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca on california-climate-policy-pioneer

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• how-not-to-be-fooled-by-viral-charts
  
• the-continuing-challenge-of-poststratification-when-we-dont-have-full-joint-data-on-the-population
  
• the-onion-ok-an-onion-affiliate-site-is-plagiarizing
  
• extinct-champagne-grapes-i-can-be-even-more-disappointed-in-the-news-media
  
• clarkes-law-and-whos-to-blame-for-bad-science-reporting
  
• progress-in-2023
  
• in-some-cases-academic-misconduct-doesnt-deserve-a-public-apology
  
• the conversable economist on leamer-on-economic-knowledge-pictures-stories-numbers
• Kaiser Fung on when-will-we-get-more-and-broader-testing

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• improved-public-services-can-reduce-geographic-disparities
  
• saving-and-spending-time
  
• Chris Armstrong on my-best-novels-of-the-year
• Institutional Economics on review-essay-milton-friedman, holiday-reads-two-biographies-of-ayn-rand
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• new-cross-country-database-potential-growth
  
• brexit-inflation-role-trade-policy-uncertainty-increasing-uk-import-prices
  
• hawkish-or-dovish-central-bankers-different-flocks-and-fiscal-shocks
  
• green-jobs-fossil-fuel-workers-implications-geography-and-skills-clean-energy
  
• urban-biased-structural-change
  
• great-divergence-south-south-divergence
  
• quantitative-easing-generates-more-inflation-conventional-monetary-policy
  
• assessing-chinas-efforts-increase-self-reliance
  

2024 is not looking good

 In all my years I can't think of a bleaker year ahead.

The Invasion of Ukraine is into its third year. Yes biden did a great job in rebuilding NATO but in reality all that has occurred is they give enough to Ukraine so it cannot be defeated NOT that they can win.biden has not been aggressive at all. One example will suffice. Russia keepso n using missiles etc to bomb civilian structures. If Ukraine had the required missiles they could say to russia you bomb our power stations then we will do the same. It looks a stalemate at present with Putin counting the Western world getting bored and not wanting to give anymore.

The calamity in Gaza gets worse. Israel had every right to retaliate after Hamas's murderous exploits however they do not seem to have  any strategy in attempting to eliminate Hamas that avoids unnecessary deaths of many thousands of Palestinians. In other words they are almost imitating Hamas in their response and they ddo not seem to care how many Palestinians are killed as a result.

The USA looks a basket case. how else do you explain a party fully embracing a person who attempted an insurrection after he was clearly defeated. He should have been convicted of impeachment but some senators were too gutless or too scared to do so. ( Let us never forget showing election fraud is very easy as dead people cannot vote nor can  people vote twice yet Trump lost 62-0 in the courts!

The worst thing about Trump is how other countrie may try to imitate him in terms of electoral 'fraud' or the other authoritarian measures he advocates even if he loses.  

A bit of sport

 A League

I watched the mighty Western City Wanderers play Macarthur on New years evening and it was a great match. Four outstanding goals, three more clear chances that should have been goals , some interesting referring decisions both good and bad. All in all well worth the money  paid yet the crowd was small. The RBB was quite small.

Clearly promoting two more teams in Sydney and Melbourne in the hope of gaining more derbies has not eventuated.

The Wanderers could win the League is things go right. They should have a good midfield when they are full strength.

Cricket

South Africa gives up on test cricket after beating a slightly understrength Indian team. I am terrified of this however at present there are only three fully competitive teams playing test cricket and they are all aging.

Pakistan should have won in melbourne. Australia should never have gotten 150 on that pitch but it is their 3rd string attack. 

Warner should never have been picked this season let alone in previous seasons. An average in the 20s in which one score of 200 helps even that means he never should have played.

It is interesting our 'fast' bowlers are struggling to get past 140k.

Why hasn't the McGrath foundation been ever asked about their quite high administrative costs?