Stagflation

 I have heard in recent times a lot of talk of stagflation returning. I am old enough to have grown up in the 70s and 80s ( like John Quiggin.) That is when it was trendy to talk about stagflation. Inflation and unemployment both reached double digits! The misery index exploded! IT also stayed around a while.

Thus I got to expect exactly that. both inflation and unemployment had to reach double digits. If you read the definition.clearly it does not state what levels inflation and unemployment have to reach.

Thus if Australia gets to 5% both in the CPI and unemployment do we have stagflation? If we only have it for a short time is that counted?

I would say no in both cases BUT I can see why some would argue otherwise. Mark the Graph we need you to write on this.

Most Western nations have independent central banks. Here in OZ I am sure the RBA will raise rates quickly to ensure inflationary expectations do not rise as well so the rise inflation would be temporary but as the economy slows unemployment will rise. Falls in unemployment always are much slower than inflation.

So my question is are we about to get stagflation or not?

Whoopsy I really should have talked more about the Fed. IF a FEd which has a lot of Trump nominees leaves interest rates where they are or even cut them as inflation rises then look out. Arthur Burns has returned!

climate Change nothing has changed

 I am sick of climate change denialists. They are either liars or completely ignorant.  Liam Bartlett is obviously in the latter camp. Naturally he got even his basics wrong. cobalt aint used in what he alleged. however they are used in I-Phones and laptops.

Two myths stand out to me. Offshore windmills kill whales for which there is NO research at all. The other is windmills onshore kills birds. Now there is evidence for this BUT they are avoiding them now!

Guess what they are killed by aeroplanes, skyscrapers and even coalfired power stations. My guess if birds are smart enough to ignore wind towers they would certainly give these others a miss.

The point is critics here either make things up or simply ignore, like our Liam , other evidence that convicts what they support.

Of course you won't be surprised that the same suspects who blamed rising electricity prices on renewables when Russia invaded ukraine when it was clearly oil and gas ( oops).

Of course they Are now doing it again.  They also clearly do not understand economics. Yes Australia has a lot of undiscovered oil BUT BUT BUT it is uneconomic. Oli prices would have to remain high for a  long time for companies to get into exploration let alone refining oil.

Iran again

 Let us go back to the beginning.

Obama set up a reasonable agreement with other nations.

Iran had to curb their nuclear interests. There would be inspectors to examine their dealings. It worked well BUT Trump came in and tore it up.

Now we have a war where no ships can go anywhere near the strait of hormuz. It is important to note that no tanker will attempt to go through it without insurance and they will not have insurance if there are threats being thrown around let alone live ammunition.

We are also being told two different things. Iran's nuclear ambitions were obliterated all those months ago by US and Israeli fighters. Nuclear were very close to possing a nuclear bomb. Huh. I think we can ignore Iran was anywhere near to having a nuclear bomb. By the way I have never heard any Irani official say they were willing to Nuke Israel knowing they would be nuked in turn. ( Israel has over 200 nukes)

We are also told Iran must stop funding their proxies. Okay how do you do that. We have not been told.

Iran also has to reduce their missile and drone capability.

some say they want regime change in Iran.

Okay if you want some or even all of those aims upheld you will need boots on the ground.

Irani officials know the importance of the mid-terms. My guess there would be a number of US soldiers killed BUT also a number of petro-chemical plants destroyed by Iran's missiles. The world economy would be hit very hard.

Think about this. The US negotiators are inexperienced with little back up to help them by design. Steve witkoff has been shown to be easily manipulated by Russia. He also either lied or di not understand what Iran said according to Oman's officials.  This is always likely to occur if you do not have experts from the State department to help you. Kushner and Vance have little experience in negotiating and it shows.

From where I sit it is very clear Trump is failing around because everything has gone pear-shaped. i have no idea of how this is going to work out but it doesn't look good.

Mark Knopfler

 If you have not seen Local Hero then do yourself a favour and watch it if only for the magnificent scottish scenery.

This music is the ending of the film and I am sorry but I have never seen a decent live version of the music.

Around the Traps 17/4/26

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on more-australian-lng-to-singapore-flagged-as-albanese-looks-to-strengthen-oil-supply-chain
• Antony Green on sa2026-huge-win-for-labor-but-a-warning-in-the-result
• Kate Griffiths et al on to-stop-australian-democracy-going-the-way-of-the-us-heres-what-we-need-to-do
• Kevin Bonham on the-amazing-2026-south-australian-election
• Abul Risvi on australia-immigration-powers-angus-taylor-trump
• Sam Bennett and Reilly Polaschek on the-government-wants-to-curb-ndis-spending-heres-how-it-might-succeed
• Andrew Whitehouse on autism-diagnoses-are-up-largely-fuelled-by-the-ndis-what-happens-next-isnt-entirely-clear
• Dave Jervis-Bardy on ignore-self-serving-claims-from-gas-giants-and-implement-100-tax-on-windfall-profits-ken-henry-says
• Greg Jericho on imf-world-economic-outlook-chaos-donald-trump
• Clinton Free on employment-data-shows-the-early-signs-of-ai-job-disruption-are-already-here
• Saul Eslake on another-interest-rate-rise-will-tip-australia-into-a-recession-we-don-t-have-to-have
• Tony Wood on what-does-the-geelong-refinery-fire-reveal-about-australias-fuel-supplies
• Antony Green on it-turns-out-the-count-aint-over
• Mick Ryan on 2026-national-defence-strategy-delivers-more-same

OZ Climate

• Kimberly Reid on why-the-phrase-super-el-nino-makes-australian-climate-scientists-roll-their-eyes
• Adam Morton on australia-fossil-fuels-politics-electric-vehicle-savings-clean-energy
• Envirolink on sydneys-summer-season-extends-dramatically-as-global-cities-face-longer-heat-periods
• an-own-goal-that-we-dont-need-investor-group-sounds-alarm-over-new-tax-on-renewables
  
• fortescue-fast-tracks-worlds-first-large-scale-green-grid-to-eliminate-diesel-and-other-fossil-fuels
  
• birds-avoid-turbines-two-new-studies-suggest-wind-farms-are-not-killing-machines-after-all
  
• 100-pct-renewable-74-pct-of-the-time-how-australias-most-advanced-grid-plans-to-be-an-energy-powerhouse
  
• can-networks-solve-australias-chicken-and-egg-ev-problem-the-battle-for-control-of-kerbside-charging
  
• the-hours-the-market-wants-back-free-daytime-power-or-a-fix-for-solar-and-wind-curtailment
  
• most-heavy-emitters-blow-their-carbon-budgets-but-bowen-sees-clear-sign-safeguard-mechanism-is-working
  
• this-lobby-barely-blinks-when-trump-threatens-genocide-but-is-in-meltdown-when-bowen-talks-wind-and-solar
  
• australian-home-battery-installations-equal-to-almost-10-pct-of-global-utility-capacity-brought-online-in-march
• batteries-included-amazon-makes-record-haul-of-hybrid-renewable-ppas-to-power-australian-ai-push
  

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on u-s-dollar-dominance-in-trade-invoicing-and-cross-border-investments-in-seacen-eeconomies
• Astead Hearndon on america-actually
• noahpinion on will-americans-want-more-housing-if-it-looks-prettier , what-if-a-few-ai-companies-end-up-with-all-the-money-and-power , hasan-piker-is-bad-for-the-democrats
• Kruggers on the-dollars-special-status-sources-and-threats , how-america-is-losing-the-world , trump-wants-regime-change-at-the-fed
• Christian Paz on trump-pope-ai-blasphemy-art-christ-evangelical-religious-right
• open mind on truth-about-trump
• the conversable economist on the-us-as-an-innovation-economy , the-austin-experience-more-housing-lower-rents
• Matt Simon on ev-battery-storage-grid-renewable-energy
• Tom Nicholls on trump-pope-post-truth-social
• Garret Graf on how-much-has-the-war-in-iran-depleted-the-us-missile-supply
• Mark Stern on aclu-lawsuit-ice-reign-of-terror-maine-california
• Molly Omstead on trump-jesus-post-pope-attack-maga-reaction
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-iran-hungary-melania-epstein
• Jon Allsop on what-brought-down-eric-swalwell
• David Rhode on gabbard-revives-deep-state-conspiracy-claims-alarming-democrats-who-see-a-pattern
• Bevan Shields on trumps-state-of-mind
• Naomi Seligman on eric-swalwell-resignation-congress-culture
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-clarence-thomas-speech-progressives-hitler
• Chris Lehmann on how trump keeps getting away with blasphemy
• Sarah Fitzpatrick on kash-patel-fbi-director-drinking-absences

Europe

• Johan Norberg on how-viktor-orbans-hungary-eroded-rule-law-free-markets Thanks Nick
• Oliver Hatwich on im-a-liberal-now-but-i-still-mourn-the-slow-death-of-the-social-democrats-in-germany Thanks Nick
• future of the left reader on the-purpose-of-patriotism Thank you Nick
• Kruggers on delusions-of-grandeur-hungary-edition
• Paul Whiteley on three-reasons-donald-trump-wont-pull-the-us-out-of-nato
• open mind on march-2026-climate-in-the-usa
• Zack Beauchamp on hungary-election-results-2026-viktor-orban-peter-magyar
• Andrew Marantz on the-hungarian-election-shows-that-even-strongmen-can-lose
• Robert Horvath on he-exposed-corruption-and-walked-across-hungary-now-peter-magyar-has-defeated-a-powerful-state-machine
• renew economy on renewable-generation-records-fall-across-the-uk-as-imported-gas-consumption-tumbles

Asia

• Jennifer Parker on what-will-it-take-to-get-ships-going-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-again
• Jessica Genauer on will-the-conflict-in-lebanon-destroy-the-us-iran-ceasefire-maybe-but-it-was-already-shaky
• Barno Nouri and Inderjeet Parma on middle-east-conflict-this-ceasefire-may-have-made-iran-stronger
• David Remnick on Trumps strategic and  moral failure in iran
• Sanjoy Paul on trumps-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-risks-new-costs-for-the-global-economy
• Donald Rothwell on would-a-us-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-legal
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-orban-hungary-economy
• Aniello Iannone on asean-s-energy-crisis-not-about-energy 
• Richard Heydarian on marcos-s-overture-china-masks-anxiety-about-us-reliability
• Kruggers on chinese-electrotech-is-the-big-winner
• Leon Goldsmith on strait-of-hormuz-blockade-the-complex-regional-realities-the-us-ignores-at-its-peril
• Julius Trajano on oil-shock-nuclear-surge-asia
• Colin Powers on the-emirates-on-the-tightrope
• Isaac Chotiner on the-extremes-of-israeli-public-opinion
• Johann Rebert and Nicola Nixon on asia-s-scam-centre-problem-moving-not-shutting-down
• home and away on iran-between-war-and-peace
• renew economy on worlds-biggest-co-located-wind-and-solar-project-begins-operations-in-china
• Federica Mogherini and Sahil Shah on how-to-end-the-iran-crisis
• Ali Mamouri on iran-has-a-powerful-new-tool-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-that-it-can-leverage-long-after-the-war
• Avishay Artsy and Sean Rameswaram on israel-lebanon-ceasefire-buffer-zone-hezbollah-explained
• Awais Hanif on japan-aims-shipbuilding-revival

Wonk

• institutional economics on fade-the-ceasefire-rally-its-not-going-to-last
• Brad De Long on is-the-day-of-the-data-center-about-to-be-over
• Ramon Glaznov on bearded-schizoidal-fanatics-the-revival-of-character-pathology-in-the-trump Thanks Nick
• Bruce Buchan on what-actually-is-civilisation-the-dark-and-loaded-history-behind-trumps-threat-against-iran
• Mark Alfano and Michael Klincewicz on slopaganda-wars-how-and-why-the-us-and-iran-are-flooding-the-zone-with-viral-ai-generated-noise
• Mark the Graph on weekly-update-energy-prices
• Tim Harford on the-usefulness-of-useless-knowledge
• the conversable economist on globalization-healthier-than-the-headlines , interview-with-ellen-mcgrattan-business-cycles-and-intangible-capital , ai-and-future-growth
• Nischal Dhungel on high-rates-expensive-oil-create-global-debt-trap
• Jing Ge on moon-governance-spotlight-after-artemis-ii
• Mathew Sussex on what-viktor-orbans-election-loss-means-for-putin-trump-and-the-rise-of-right-wing-populism
• Art Cotterill on as-artemis-ii-is-celebrated-the-world-faces-hard-questions-about-us-leadership-in-space
• Melanie O'Brien on health-care-workers-risk-their-lives-in-warzones-are-we-protecting-them-enough
• Tyler Cowen on the-venetian-empire-and-the-mongols-modeling-marco-polo
• Chris Dillow on one-cheer-for-falling-income-inequality
• Flavio Macao on will-oil-prices-ever-truly-go-back-to-normal
• noahpinion on you-are-what-you-consume

General

• Priyanka Dhopade on artemis-ii-as-humans-return-to-the-moon-which-of-these-4-futures-will-we-choose
• Samarth Kulshiresthra on the-secret-sensory-life-of-plants-researchers-are-discovering-how-they-see-hear-feel-and-even-remember
• Steve Prabhu and James Miller-Jones on black-hole-jets-dance-in-the-wind-from-a-massive-companion-star

Climate

• real climate on a-reflection-on-reflection
• ocean acidification on acidification-in-the-earth%ca%bcs-oceans-trends-and-persistence
• Mary-Ann Lea et al on the-beloved-emperor-penguin-and-antarctic-fur-seal-are-now-officially- on dangered-heres-what-can-be-done
• Moyhu on march-global-surface-templs-down-0023-from-february
• skeptical science on new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• heres-an-interesting-story-there-were-so-many-problems-with-the-survey-that-the-government-didnt-release-the-data
  
• the-ftc-does-not-have-our-backs-that-much-is-clear
  
• all-graphs-are-comparisons-and-the-relevance-of-this-principle-for-practical-advice-for-producing-better-graphs
  
• which-beliefs-are-considered-acceptable-and-which-are-not
  
• how-to-report-a-n12-study
  
• epistemic-virtues-for-science-in-the-age-of-automation 
• survey-statistics-irrelevant-alternatives
  
• can-you-hit-a-home-run-off-of-paul-skenes
  
• fascinating-1981-interview-with-morris-kline-author-of-the-classic-book-mathematics-the-loss-of-certainty
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• AI log on the-pluralistic-universe-of-michael-pollan Thanks Nick
• programable mutter on ai-has-limits-even-if-many-ai-people-can't-see-them Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on that-was-then-this-is-now-55 , that-was-then-that-was-then , that-was-then-this-is-now-56

Vox Wonk

• when-and-why-political-leaders-polarise-rhetoric-evidence-twitterx 
  
• more-women-politics-does-not-always-mean-more-gender-equality 
  
• great-ai-talent-migration-why-universities-are-losing-future-innovation 
  
• migration-shocks-and-voting
  
• weaker-us-job-ladder-has-slowed-wage-growth 
  
• why-global-imbalances-matter-again-and-what-do-about-them
  
• global-shocks-are-back-emerging-markets-holding 
  
• how-new-technologies-travel-evidence-global-firm-networks
  
• rapid-technology-creation-widened-inequality-across-time-and-space 
  
• bank-failures-roles-solvency-and-liquidity 
  
• value-free-health-insurance-evidence-mexicos-seguro-popular 
  
• cross-border-payment-technologies-innovations-and-challenges-lessons-domestic-and 
  
• olympic-opportunity-social-housing-policy-lessons-athens-2004-olympic-village
  

some OZ stuff

 National party

Their leader who has studied and worked for the productivity commision came up with a dreadful idea yesterday. economics. He says there is plenty of oil in australia, Good thus far. He said the reason it wasn't being explored previously aa was because prices were too low to make it economic. Even better thus far. BUT he then goes on to promote a domestic oil industry. so he is in fact saying high prices will remain with us for a long time ( in the long term is the jargon) BUT he also says the present rise is only a short term phenomena. Note they are contradictory statements. Companies only invest in such ventures when they are confident of long term success. Thus would you be investing in oil exploration and refining?

Canavan is a protectionist thus saying whatever he studied at university was wrong!

climate change

I have noticed a bewildering lot of criticism coming from 'right wing' commentators at Chris Bowen. In most criticism there is a whole lot of economic ignorance. I heard one person say NSW is reliable because of our browns coal. Coal aint reliable and we have no brown coal Victoria has it!!

Batteries are roaring. This will have a significant effect on the market. We have seen commercial batteries reduce wholesale prices in the evening as they take market share from high cost gas.

Defence

As we raise our defence spending we must learn from Ukraine and its drone technology. We get a female head of army.

AI

Are we seeing the first effects of it?

The Opposition on Immigration

 Angus Kelly released his new policy on immigration. See Michelle Grattan and Abul Rizvi.

I will merely note a few things.

• There is no evidence to back up assertions. It is very one nationesque.
• They want to examine social media accounts of every immigrant. This is utter Trumpist stupidity. Are we going to say no to anyone that criticises Australian policy?
• They are going to ban immigrants from Gaza. Again on what evidence? do they realise Palestinian Christians are over-represented in immigrants thus far. Do they think they are  potential terrorists?

Pauline Hanson can get way for portraying herself as an ignorant fool because she is one. Taylor cannot.

The other thing is we are a highly successful multi-cultural nation indeed an immigrant nation.

It was very poor policy. We can only hope it improves

update:

Amanda Vanstone does not think much of the policy.

The illegal war on Iran shows incompetence in action

 Not much time today.

The New York Times has a story on how the war in Iran started. It is authored by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan ( son of norman!). There is a book coming.

Bibi convinced Trump this would be a short very winnable war which would enhance his stature and polling. They convinced him that there would be regime change so the strait of homuz would not be a problem.

This shows incompetence at is best. Few questions are asked. No history is enquired about and the triumph of Venezuela goes to his head.

Alas for the world he is still there.

I  know it is not related but only a person who has lost his marbles would show himself as Jesus. Add that to destroying Iranian civilisation then he is crackers!

A few things

 Ben Roberts Smith

I have had a gutful of his supporters saying his arrest and forthcoming trial will mean a fall in recruitment. NO IT DOESN'T!!!  Most people have a moral compass, Roberts-Smith clearly did not. Remember he has was found guilty of war crimes on the basis of probability BUT not on beyond reasonable doubt. His behaviour led to Afghanis lacking any support for the allies in Afghanistan and thus lead to the taliban regaining power. To be honest he di not have the faintest idea of what fighting a war was all about.

Hungary

I was surprised Orban gave up power so easily after losing the general election. Perhaps it was the margin. He also di not realise most hungarians want to be europeans. It is also good news for Ukraine which is great too.

Democracy

The grattan institute ( easily the best in the country) has released a great paper on this subject. Wrap your head around it. It is both interesting and thought provoking.

Eric Swalwell

This man a californian democrat is being investigated for sexually assaulting several women. I am surprised at this. He is very good and does not seem remotely likely to do such a crime but we shall see. It is clear he will have to get out of the governor's job in California.

Around the Traps 10/4/26

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on housing-tax-reform-without-much-housing-reform , gdp-nowcast-q1-2026 , updated-weekly-fuel-prices
• Marit Kragt on winter-crops-need-to-be-sown-but-australias-farmers-are-worried-about-fertilisers-and-fuel
• Lydia Khalil on sovereign-citizen-challenge
• Mark the Ballot on attitudinal-polling
• Michelle Grattan on a-future-plan-on-fuel-should-be-central-to-albanese-governments-reform-agenda
• Graham Young on what-happens-to-centre-right-politics-if-onenation-continues-to-rise Thanks Nick
• Gareth Evans on bob-hawke-australian-prime-minister-gold-standard
• the pollbludger on newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march
• Katja Hanewald on this-little-known-government-scheme-can-help-retirees-tap-into-3-trillion-of-housing-wealth
• Robert Breunig on by-avoiding-means-testing-the-government-is-giving-handouts-to-the-rich
• Milad Haghani et al on is-free-public-transport-a-good-idea-it-depends-on-who-gets-on-board
• the tally room on measuring marginality beyond the pendulum
• Paul Taucher and Dean Aszkielowicsz on ben-roberts-smith-is-accused-of-5-war-crime-murder-charges-how-did-we-get-here
• Helen Bird on australias-biggest-stock-exchange-needs-tougher-competition-or-we-all-risk-paying-the-price
• Greg Jericho on australia-recession-economy-rba-trump-iran
• Kevin Morrison on does-the-iran-ceasefire-mean-the-fuel-crisis-is-over-not-even-close
• John Hawkins on was-the-hawke-government-really-the-gold-standard-for-reform
• Stella Huangfu on is-australia-at-risk-of-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-actually-shows
• Tom Barber on be-informed-not-just-alert

OZ Climate

• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• an-electric-farm-an-electric-harvest-electric-everything
  
• chart-of-the-day-how-renewables-have-helped-slash-emissions-on-australias-main-grid
  
• home-batteries-get-bigger-and-bigger-as-race-to-beat-rebate-changes-sparks-last-ditch-frenzy
  
• coal-to-liquids-coalitions-latest-energy-brain-fart-is-their-craziest-yet-and-that-takes-some-doing
  
• councils-flex-their-muscle-on-renewables-laying-down-the-local-law-on-roads-farmland-and-housing
  
• how-getting-landlords-into-heat-pump-hot-water-can-get-tenants-out-of-high-gas-bills
  
• we-just-need-more-why-australia-should-double-down-on-renewables-and-evs-not-drill-baby-drill
  
• the-clock-is-ticking-coal-is-down-prices-have-fallen-but-wind-projects-are-very-very-late
  
• australia-needs-to-rapidly-electrify-as-much-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible
  
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on 6-things-australia-should-do-to-tackle-the-energy-crisis-rather-than-just-building-bigger-fuel-reserves
• Bjorn Sturmberg and Arastoo Teymouri on growing-ev-popularity-is-leading-to-queues-at-fast-chargers-could-a-kerbside-charger-network-help

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on given-projected-population-is-the-administrations-forecast-plausible ,liberation-day-plus-one-year
• Kruggers on donald-trump-isnt-sounding-like-himself, living-in-hell , the-terrorist-in-chief , our-darkest-hour, ignorance-and-ignominy , job-growth-on-ice
• new deal democrat on march-jobs-report-the-birds-that-came-home-to-roost-play-an-april-fools-joke-shrieking-nevermind , losing-the-worlds-respect
• Mary McCord on pam-bondi-trump-attorney-general-fired-retribution
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling thanks Nick
• Ilan Goldenberg on I-wargamed-iran-for-obama-this-is-the-worst-case-scenario Thanks Nick
• Barbara Perry on presidential-communication-truth-social-trump-war
• Mick Ryan on trump-s-bridge-power-day-damning-america
• Srijan Shukla on taco-fallacy
• Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz on sam-altman-may-control-our-future-can-he-be-trusted
• noahpinion on i-told-you-this-would-end-badly , yes-assimilation-is-good
• the conversable economist on how-federal-spending-is-distributed-to-the-elderly-working-age-and-children
• Margaret Donovan and Rachel VanLanigham on war-crimes-rhetoric-power-plants-iran
• Andrew Prokop on trump-taco-iran-ceasefire
• Home and Away on special-edition-on-iran-civilization
• Rachel VanLandingham on trump-iran-war-crime-threat-ceasefire
• Rodrigo Praino on a-whole-civilisation-will-die-tonight-trumps-genocide-threat-against-iran-was-another-new-low-for-america
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-nato
• Molly Omstead on jd-vance-hungary-viktor-orban-christians
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• public notice on trump-stooges

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on auden-on-iceland
• Amr Algarhi and Adeola Oyebowele on how-brexit-reduced-the-city-of-londons-financial-clout-new-research
• ZsuZsanna Vegh on hungary-election-orban-rule-power
• Lisa Martin on europe-holds-its-breath-ahead-hungary-s-election
• Chris Dillow on in-it-for-themselves

Asia

• the conversation on how-will-the-iran-war-change-the-middle-east-we-asked-5-experts
• Joshua Keating on trump-threat-war-crimes-electricity-bridges
• Fred Kaplan on iran-trump-war-crimes-bomb
• Donald Rothwell on how-might-the-strait-of-hormuz-be-reopened-here-are-3-scenarios
• David Graham on trump-iran-civilization-threat
• Amin Saikal on the-us-israel-ceasefire-with-iran-presses-pause-on-a-costly-war-but-can-peace-last
• Ishaan Tharoor on a-us-iran-ceasefire-is-here-but-trumps-stone-age-mentality-endures
• the conversable economist on north-koreas-economy-how-to-study-a-data-black-hole
• Taufiq Rahim on the peace  Thanks Tyler
• Shanthie D'Souza on india-s-clean-energy-goals-set-challenges-bring-opportunities
• Jade Guan on same-old-formula-bigger-stakes-beijing-taiwan-s-opposition
• Anton Ponomarenko on mutual-benefits-ukraine-south-korea-partnership
• Courtney Fung and Andrea Ghiselli on iran-crisis-puts-china-s-un-diplomacy-test
• Joshua Keating on iran-nuclear-missiles
• Simon Schuster on china-taiwan-trump-iran-war
• Mark Nevitt on strait-hormuz-tolls-crisis

Wonk

• Mark the Graph on updated-energy-benchmarks
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon
• Tim Harford on what-if-ai-just-makes-us-work-harder
• noahpinion on salarymen-specialists-and-small-businesses , all-ai-all-the-time
• Konstantine Panegyres on despairing-at-the-state-of-the-world-the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-knew-the-feeling
• eminent americans on the-failure-to-be-interesting Thanks Nick
• David Bessis on thinking-fast-slow-and-super-slow Thanks Nick
• Brad De Long on crosspost-cosma-shalizi-aware-of-internet-traditions , stochastic-lobsters-token-tsunamis , a-plea-to-chad-orzel , contemporary-governance-and-contemporary-prosperity-and-past-settler-colonialism-and-its-ilk
• Sitara Noor on ten-years-after-nuclear-security-summits-what-now
• Alex Tabarrok on ai-unemployment-and-work

General

• Andrew Barron on bumblebees-can-perceive-rhythm-despite-their-brains-being-the-size-of-a-sesame-seed
• anecdotal value on for-the-love-of-god-learn-to-paragraph Thanks Nick
• Peter Edwell on meet-diocletian-the-roman-emperor-who-retired-to-grow-cabbages

Climate

• real climate on spencers-shenanigans-part-i
• skeptical science on published-research-experiment-paper , fact-brief-windland , new_research
• ocean acidification on the-impact-of-climate-change-on-lobster-production-a-systematic-synthesis-of-literature

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• campus-newspapers-and-what-remains-of-journalism
  
• how-do-political-organizations-and-politically-minded-rich-people-translate-money-into-media-influence
  
• my-uninformed-and-completely-speculative-theory-about-jeff-bezos-and-the-washington-post
• survey-statistics-improving-with-structure
  
• an-application-for-training-deep-learning-models-in-your-browser
  
• statschat on kokako-goneburger

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-drama-no-spoilers
• Andrew Gelman on updike-in-tehran

Vox Wonk

• content-moderators-dilemma-how-removing-toxic-speech-distorts-online-discourse 
  
• how-emerging-markets-borrow-new-evidence-sovereign-bond-issuance 
  
• greening-border-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-incidence-eu-member-states-and
  
• knowledge-jobs-help-firms-influence-demand
  
• gig-jobs-and-crime-evidence-food-delivery-platforms-france
  
• how-far-apple-falls-evidence-social-mobility-across-oecd-countries
  
• why-firms-responses-corporate-taxes-differ-across-countries
  
• differences-ai-adoption-europe-and-us-explanations-and-implications-productivity
  

Use the 25th amendment use it now.

 Trump is unquestionably in cognitive decline. This is not unexpected. He is 80 excessively overweight and his father had dementia. He believes his own lies are the truth. He believes stories he makes up that cannot be true like his story about his uncle.

He threatened Iran with geoocide. He has constantly threatened war crimes which is a war crime in itself.

Trump threatened to put Iran back to the stone age.As Tom Nicholls says this surely meant using nukes!

His erratic behaviour makes him very unsuitable to be President. The war against Iran surely proves he has no idea of what he is doing. That someone as incompetent as Hesgeth is hid secretary of defence makes it worse.

Just replace with Vance and do it now!

A whole bunch of things

 In no order

• Ben Roberts-Smith is charged with war crimes. Just remember the Judge in the libel trial found him guilty on the balance of probabilities. He will only be found guilty if the evidence is beyond reasonable doubt. One thing against him was the Judge finding him a bully.
• Donald Rothwell raises three scenarios on how to open the strait of Homuz
• 6 ways to tackle the energy crisis. not hard to do
• ASX needs more competition. Who would have thunked it
• chargers for EV. Is there a solution?
• Brexit was bad for the city of london. That was an easy prediction.
• Tom Nicholls thinks Trump is threatening nukes. Use the 25th amendment please!
• Can you trust Sam Altman? 
• a personal story from Iran

Trump is mad

 Trump's threats against Iran are war crimes ( see Fred Kaplan and Joshua Keating ) and he acts like a terrorist. Is he trying to ape Netanyahu!  Late for me but Mick Ryan

When you blow up all energy infrastructure you are harming the civilian population who looked to you for support in removing the government. What you are doing is  strengthening the government and ensuring the population hates the USA!

What do you think Iran will do in retaliation?  I think the oil refineries and petro-chemical plants are in severe danger in countries 'supporting the USA' in the immediate area. Forget about oil getting past the strait of hormuz and put in the red sea as well!

Iran realises Trump's weakness and that is the economy. Pushing up petrol prices, fertiliser and chemicals will usher in first stagflation and then a recession as central banks react. They do not care about what happens to Iran as they will survive.

The mid-terms will become an absolute blood bath.

A rational person would realise all this. A severely impacted cognitive impaired person who unquestionably is suffering from dementia ( like his father) would not.

Bondi gawn

 Mary McCord writes a great article on this.

Let me make a few points.

• Both Bondi and Blanche started their DOJ careers with first class reputations, both declined considerably.
• Over 8k has either been sacked or resigned during their tenure.
• Only an idiot would think this would not have a negative impact on the DOJ yet they did not see this. They are now attempting to employ any person that has a law degree!
• Both a very poor political operators. Bondi's handling of the epstein files was has worse than bad, her Senate hearing embarrassing and not even turning to face Epstein survivors was very poor.
• You cannot promise to prosecute Trump 'enemies if they have committed no crime.
• Comey and James were only just indicted because of unlawful instructions as we learned from the magistrate judge.
• Quite a few attorneys were deemed unlawful on her watch on a similar bent.

Bondi was inexplicably bad at the law but much worse at the politics. Her successor maybe be better but the law is the law and you need actual evidence to prosecute.

Easter music

 Colin Davis conducting the greatest song from the greatest oratorio ever written

Around the Traps 3/4/26 Good Friday edition

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling
• George Verikios on war-could-add-an-extra-5-to-prices-in-australia-but-theres-one-sector-that-shields-the-economy
• Mark the Graph on cpi-reform-wont-fix-housing
• Allan Behm on trump-is-impotently-railing-against-the-uss-allies-albanese-is-right-to-avoid-the-presidents-global-catastrophe
• Locky Lui et al on halving-the-fuel-excise-is-smart-politics-but-flawed-policy
• Patrick Commins on property-tax-rules-landlords-investments-house-prices-australia
• Greg Jericho on australia-land-grab-young-people-little-hope-buying-home
• Michelle Grattan on nearly-half-our-permanent-migrants-are-working-below-their-skill-level-former-treasury-secretary
• Samantha Thomas and Hannah Pitt on small-and-underwhelming-albaneses-gambling-reforms-wont-do-much-to-reduce-harm

OZ climate

• australia-has-already-passed-gas-the-market-is-just-updating-its-paperwork
  
• local-council-drops-court-case-against-one-of-australias-most-hotly-contested-wind-projects
  
• floods-inflation-insolvency-transgrid-says-blowout-in-transmission-costs-entirely-out-of-its-control
  
• indefensible-fossil-fuel-lies-have-crippled-climate-action-so-why-did-senate-inquiry-have-to-pull-its-punches
  
• peak-load-is-expected-to-double-as-industries-flock-to-australias-world-first-100-pct-renewables-grid
  
• transmission-superhighways-will-revolutionise-energy-but-distribution-network-roads-will-drive-the-transition
  
• electric-trucks-are-increasingly-competitive-and-could-be-a-thing-if-only-the-transport-minister-would-listen
  
• home-battery-rebates-and-soaring-diesel-costs-bring-electrification-to-the-masses
  
• a-fair-energy-system-is-worth-fighting-for-but-without-playing-the-solar-and-battery-blame-game
  
• its-a-risky-strategy-why-delaying-coal-closures-may-backfire-on-price-and-reliability
  
• scientific-dead-end-the-new-push-to-get-wind-turbine-syndrome-back-on-the-radar
  
• seize-the-day-time-to-let-solar-daylight-saving-in-batteries-reduce-our-costs-in-australia
  
• Saman Gorji and Alireza Ganjovi on australias-rooftop-solar-boom-left-apartment-residents-behind-heres-how-to-fix-it
• David Bowman on we-have-the-proof-that-logging-makes-tasmanias-forests-more-flammable

Northern America

• institutional economics on maga-globalism
• Christian Paz on israel-maga-iran-religious-catholic-evangelical-zionism-dispensationalism-vatican-anti-semitism-tucker-huckabee-ted-cruz
• Kruggers on is-america-suffering-from-the-resource-curse , pete-hegseth-believes-in-the-lethality-fairy , the-psychology-of-military-incompetence , $4-gasoline-is-less-than-half-the-story, in-batteries-we-trust
• Brad De Long on confused-notes-on-the-war-on-iran , trump-doesnt-even-have-the-courage-to-run-away
• David Kang on trump-us-power-iran
• noahpinion on maybe-you-should-have-bought-an-electric-car
• Mary McCord on doj-michael-flynn-settlement-trump-lies
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oil-shocks-raise-recession-odds-and-inflation-risks
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-vice-signaling
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-speech-tonight
• David Frum on trump-iran-war-oil-prices
• Ian Millhiser on pam-bondi-incomptent-justice-department
• Jeet Heer on pete-hegseth-iran-holy-war, trump-iran-speech-analysis-reaction
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-war-news-speech-lies
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-why-pam-bondi-fired-worst-attorney-general
• the conversable economist on trumps-tariffs-one-year-later-predictably-disappointing

Europe

• Michael Haas on breakthrough-method-netherlands Thanks Nick
• David Kirichenko on ukraine-ground-robots-are-increasingly-going-offensive

Asia

• Chang Che on how-china-learned-to-love-the-classics Thanks Nick
• Justin Bergman on why-hasnt-the-us-military-used-force-to-secure-the-strait-of-hormuz
• Shanthie D'Souza on what-india-s-game-wto
• Tommy Chai on after-america-how-southeast-asia-can-defend-itself
• Mark the Graph on groupthink-with-group-of-one
• Anna Brennan on a-war-without-accountability-why-the-middle-east-crisis-is-also-a-legal-quagmire
• Shannon Bosch on new-israeli-law-could-mean-death-penalty-by-default-for-palestinians-convicted-of-deadly-attacks
• Flavio Macau on why-a-second-global-shipping-chokepoint-could-soon-live-up-to-its-name-as-the-gate-of-tears
• Mick Ryan on iran-land-war-illusion
• Amin Saikal on trump-underestimated-irans-resilience-now-there-is-only-one-way-out-of-the-war
• anonymous on from-the-rooftops-of-tehran
• noahpinion on how-japan-has-changed-in-the-last-20-years
• the conversable economist on india-and-the-service-sector
• Charles Jones on beware-pakistan-s-general-bearing-peace-talks
• Martin Kear on what-is-benjamin-netanyahus-end-game-in-the-iran-war
• Aarti Betigeri on soft-power-politics-sari-diplomacy

Wonk

• Luke Foster on the-spirit-of-a-gentleman Thanks Nick
• John Ehrett on knowing-what-time-it-is Thanks Nick
• Sam Kriss on ai-startup-roy-lee Thanks Nick
• Mathew Crawford on the-totalitarianism-of-the-open-society Thanks Nick
• digressions impressions on on-moyn-on-popper-and-democratic-imperialism Thanks Nick
• Richard Baldwin on why-didnt-trumpian-tariffs-wreck-the-world-trade-system Thanks Brad
• artificial bureaucracy on kill-chain Thanks Nick
• the one percent rule on william-james-and-the-psychology-of-habit Thanks Nick
• Robert Lynch on how-technology-re-tribalized-us Thanks Nick
• Mark the Graph on energy-prices-update
• Tim Harford on the-refreshing-power-of-disagreement
• noahpinion on plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the-age-of-AI
• Jack Sato on what-raisina-2026-revealed-about-world-pulling-apart 
• Bernard Stewart on strongest-evidence-yet-that-vaping-likely-causes-cancer
• the conversable economist on overconfident-ai
• dead for tax reasons on the-1990s-called-they-want-their-economic-policy-back
• Kruggers on the-oil-crisis-is-about-to-get-physical
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch-16
• Samir Bhattacharya on spillover-sudan
• Izabella Watts on is-cuba-next
• Frances Shin on brics-promised-new-world-order-iran-war-shows-it-can-t-deliver
• Marigold Black and Iain Magillivray on america-s-nuclear-umbrella-fraying-indo-pacific
• Jana De Kluiver on blocking-south-africa-g7-g20-carries-wider-message-world
• Henry Yep on when-confidence-becomes-policy
• institutional economics on headlong-into-the-kindleberger-trap
• Richard Haass on nearing-a-fork-in-the-road-on-iran
• Peter Beaumont on us-war-crimes-iran-civilian-infrastructure-international-law-school-strike

General

• Matt Fish on one-hit-wonders Thanks Nick
• Paul Tacon et al on nt-rock-art-thousands-of-years-old-sheds-new-light-on-the-mysterious-tasmanian-tiger
• Domenico Vincinanza on why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-return-to-the-moon

Climate

• open mind on snowpack
• skeptical science on GWP-20-terrible-idea , new_research
• ocean acidification on state-of-the-global-climate-2025
• Benji Jones on god-squad-gulf-mexico-rices-whales-endangered-species

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• should-you-include-a-list-of-retractions-and-corrections-along-with-a-list-of-publications-on-your-cv
  
• 12-dimensional-chess 
  
• these-are-the-three-ways-of-attacking-a-statistical-problem-illustrated-with-the-nfl-example
  
• the-point-of-yesterdays-post-on-the-three-ways-of-attacking-a-statistical-problem
  
• black-and-white-gray-and-in-between-what-color-is-the-media
  
• survey-statistics-design-based-cross-validation-dcv
  
• this-evil-lottery-scam-appears-to-be-aided-and-abetted-by-google-apple-yahoo-morningstar-msn-etc-etc
  
• shameless-plug-alert-win-prizes-by-forecasting-real-healthcare-data-to-help-uks-health-service-save-lives
  
• is-your-model-converging
  
• im-a-big-fan-of-the-library-you-never-know-what-youre-gonna-find-there
  
• cremieux recueill on social-scientists-are-lazy Thanks Nick
• freakometrics on fair regression under localised demographic parity constraints
• Kaiser Fung on why-only-me , know-your-data-47-ai-solves-missing-connections-or-not
• statschat on briefly

Dianne Coyle  ( quirky + book reviews)

• march-reading
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• it-may-be-time-sweden-join-euro 
  
• war-and-lost-generation-inventors 
  
• powering-digital-economy-global-expansion-data-centres-and-its-energy-implications 
  
• geography-science
  
• designing-fiscal-consolidation-achieve-fiscal-sustainability-and-sustainable
  
• china-spillovers
  
• pitting-migrants-against-babies-why-it-does-not-make-economic-sense 
  
• free-rider-innovator-how-china-became-global-pharmaceutical-powerhouse 
  
• gender-norms-and-labour-market
  
• information-equalisation-and-competition-selection-markets-evidence-auto-insurance 
  
• world-war-trade-domino-regionalism-emergent-global-trading-order 
  
• beyond-oil-macroeconomic-impact-commodity-supply-disturbances