Thursday 31 March 2022

Around the Traps 1/4/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 30 March 2022

A few thoughts on Ukraine

Without resorting to links here are some random thoughts on the situation in Ukraine.

  • How come no-one knew how bad the Russian army Is Is it because like most bullies they only performed against someone who never pushed back
  • Conversely how come the Ukrainian defence forces were so underestimated. Yes their fierce determination to defend their nation and their inspiring leader are reasons but only at the margin.
  • How can Putin declare he has won and go away? He is running out of resources as the sanctions bite hard
  • Can Russia ever intimate another nation again. Any nation similar to Ukraine merely has to get the right weapons and Russia will huff and puff
  • It will take another Marshall plan to rebuild Ukraine
  • Why not facilitate Russia into the market system alah China. The costs escalate when you want your people to have vastly increased living stands.

Tuesday 29 March 2022

The budget is risky

 We are living in times close to if not at full employment. The budget last night did not change fiscal policy from last year. It is neither more expansionary nor has it become less expansionary. With interest rates almost at zero no-one is taking their foot off the accelerator.

As Richard Holden points out no attack on the structural deficit has been made. The Liberals are a large spending government, way above that made by the ALP when avoiding the GFC. They haven't even come close to getting to their high point as yet.

Inflation is more than likely to increase and thus interest rates are as well. the CBA has estimated the neutral rate is 1.25% so if the RBA has to adopt contractionary policy they will go much higher than that.


Monday 28 March 2022

Australia must have a carbon tax

 Adrian Blundell-Wignall formerly of the RBA, OECD et al writes a good article entitled the case for introducing a carbon tax  (in Australia).

Thursday 24 March 2022

Around the Traps 20/3/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 23 March 2022

My experience with Optus/ NBN

 Three weeks ago on Tuesday we lost our internet connection. This meant no internet, telephone or TV.

It took until Friday for the NBN to fix it. I only found out our wires were on the wrong pole!

On the Sunday I watched a bit of England V West Indies test. I noticed as I drove to church some people of NBN on the exact pole where our wires were.

Sure enough no internet when I got home. After phoning Optus various times we got another NBN technician to come and examine our house. We were told we were not an urgent case as my wife was forced to buy a dongle

One problem it was last Friday when my youngest son had his graduation which had been postponed for over a year. I was informed the technician would be here at 8 when I said no-one would be here at 10. He came at 12.15. Another visit was arranged on the Tuesday.  This came and went. When we again had to ring up. ( The phone call involved over a hour in time) we were told the technician had come and but could not get into the set of apartments. No we live in a house not a unit.

So after two weeks we eventually got another technician who eventually found it was the NBN line. It was just one of those things. No the technicians fiddling around on the pole had done nothing. It must have been the rain.


Aghhhhhhh

Tuesday 22 March 2022

Kimberly Kitching

 Now that the funeral is over I am much more comfortable talking about the late Senator. She was no Robert Askin or Leo Port so there was nothing in her past that was crooked and so had to be brought up because few knew it.

Steve from Brisbane has a good article on her and the controversy  He has MORE

A few comments. What exactly are the allegations. I hear people waxing lyrical ( and not so lyrical) about the need for an inquiry. Exactly what would the inquiry be examining? No-one but no-one has said. I tried to ring 2GB yesterday to get them to say but was told no. In brief no longer being on a committee and not asking questions in the Senate is not bullying otherwise Kim Carr has a greater case.

Her friends have been leaking salacious gossip but knew those people who were accused could never properly respond before her funeral. Journalists were either taken for a ride unknowingly or were part of the political theatre. Either way these people show no taste and no class.

Kitching to my mind was a female Robert Ray ( and came from the same faction. He was never a great minister and she never showed she would be. However he was dynamiter ( with john Faulkner) in Senate Estimates. She had the potential to be the same. Potential, she wasn't anywhere near there as yet.

She had problems.

Her husband was a complete ratbag. He used to run a completely disreputable blog.

Clearly some in the ALP thought she was too close to some in the government.

Both problems could be overcome.

Monday 21 March 2022

The SA Election

 The ALP won the state election in South Australia in a landslide. What has been unsatisfying is that no-one as yet can come up with a satisfactory explanation.

Both the government and the premier were competent. No Campbell Newmans to be seen anywhere.

It was said opening up the economy just as omicron came about was poor. Ambulance ramping was way too high. Indeed both these points could explode together however is this enough to cause a landslide? I doubt it. A win quite possibly but a landslide where there premier loses his seat!

We are led to believe the ALP  leader is one right out of the box however if so why was this not so blindingly obvious before the poll?

All in all we are lost for credible answers

Sunday 20 March 2022

Infrastructure spending has simply become pork barrelling

 The Premier think tank , perhaps the only think tank in Australia, the Grattan Institute has produced a report that examines proposals for infrastructure spending for both parties.

In the last election only ONE of the 71 project promises had a business case supported by Infrastructure Australia. 

Think the ALP is any different. Only TWO of their 61 had it as well.

That is a lot of wasted money.

Thursday 17 March 2022

Around the Traps 17/3/22

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nutin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday 16 March 2022

Two posts on Ukraine war

 Two really interesting posts on the war Russia started on Ukraine.

Firstly we have Jeet Heer from the time of monsters with is-putin-the-problem. Check out the worrying video.

Next we have Noah Smith from noahopinion on china-has-a-fateful-choice-to-make. Okay it is a bit of a stretch but it is good.

Tuesday 15 March 2022

Neil young with Booker T and the MGs

 NBN problems persist.

Here is Neil Young joining Booker T and the MGs and doing All along the watchtower.

Enjoy




Monday 14 March 2022

I have NBN problems

 Last week we did not have the internet or the phone from Wednesday to late Friday. The same has occurred from Sunday morning.

Life without the internet is very boring remembering that Kayo and Netflix are on line products. Add in doing things such as banking and you feel helpless and the Library becomes a lifeline.

aghhhhh!

Thursday 10 March 2022

Around the Traps 10/3/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps. No internet for some time this week so I could have missed some articles.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

  • nuttin

Dianne Coyle

Vox Wonk

Monday 7 March 2022

A few different thoughts on the floods

 The floods have been horrific. Thousands of houses and hotel rooms are gone for a long time. It will take a long time to construct any sort of housing to replace them. Thus where are people going to live? In tents? Worse where will all the tradies needed for the construction live whilst they attempt to build all these houses? Where is all the waste going to go?

When are we going to work out where people can live? A lot of these people were not insured because of the cost. This will increase after the floods. Are people for the government really happy to pick up the tab on this. We have now seen two 1 in a 100 ( or 1%) events in two years!

If governments successfully use mitigation techniques then all is good but this is unlikely. We really need a good think about this before we jump in and then repeat the same mistakes we have made in the past.

Sunday 6 March 2022

Shane Warne

 Shane Warne dies of a heart attack on the weekend one day after Rod Marsh died of the same thing. you expect a man of 74 to die of a heart attack if it is a biggy. you rarely expect a amn of 52 to do the same thing.

Shane Warne was the greatest spinner in the history of the game. Ironically he had little variety. He basically bowled legspinners. Beautiful well flighted legspinners. He rarely bowled a googly. His flipper was a bewdy but again springly used. although he talked up a whole heap of deliveries he had, invariably he invented a new one before a test series, it was all bulldust.

He could inspire team mates and was a good leader when given the chance although off field activities meant he would never captain Australia.

Off the field he was called a larrikin. I think that is what we call womanisers here. He treated women terribly and marriage meant nothing to him.The less said about his foundation the better.

In some ways he was similar to Ian Botham. When young he could get away with a big night and play well the next day. As he got older it got much harder. Like most womaniser he was vain. Fancy getting a face lift to try and keep looking young.

He did not have any sort of intellect and in terms of cricket I rarely heard him say anything of interest but he did understand what brand Shane Warne was. He was very street smart and so made a lot of money.

In the end he got away with things on the cricket field he should not have. He never understood showing respect to your opponent which is essential if the spirit of cricket is to succeed. He also never had a McGrath moment which changed his behaviour.

In all a great shame.

Thursday 3 March 2022

Around the Traps 3/3/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps. All Ukraine articles under Europe

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk