Health Care in the USA

If you want to view what not to do for health Care in a country then look no further than the US.

Here are some views on firstly the Senate Bill:

• CBPP
• Menzie Chinn
• Perry Bacon 

This gem is courtesy of  Brad De Long. It is an article form the New England Journal of Medicine.

For the life of me I fail to see how vastly reducing the number of people that have health care, boosting premiums for older people and giving tax cuts to wealthy people is a vote winner

Why you should never use the Hodrick Prescott filter

That is the title of a very good paper written by the esteemed James Hamilton.

Yes I know both Mark Thoma and Brad De Long have previously highlighted this paper but that was when it was only available via the NBER avenue and that is not available to all.

There are TWO choices

The expurgated version was in Friday's Around the Traps in the Vox wonk section.
It is HERE.
James has also made his total article available via his wonderful ECONBROWSER blog.
It is HERE. ( You have to use his link to view it.)

Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say

The Socceroos were great

It has taken some time but the Socceroos finally put it all together. For some time they have been dull and listless but today they were energetic, full of vitality and industrious.

WE played a second string Germany and lost 3-2 and  it should have been 6-2. We drew 1-1 with Cameroon and should have lost 3-1 however today we should have won perhaps 4-2 against the best team in the tournament.
Quite easily the best three players were Sainsbury who was a tower in defence, Milligan who except for one moment completely shut out Sanchez out of the game and Irvine who provided the get and go needed in the midfield. Having a back three finally worked hallelujah.

I do have to say certain players lack of class was shown. This is why we did not score the goals we should have. to create so many goal opportunities against the 4th rated  side in the world was a sensational task. Pressure at the highest level meant we just could not convert those opportunities into goals.
It may come in the future. We shall soon learn if Ange is a great coach or a stubborn one. If he is great we shall easily make it to the World cup and certainly get into the final 16. If he is stubborn and simply had some good luck we will struggle to make the world cup and won't win a game.

I think the former is correct and thus am lacking forward to the World Cup.

Around the Traps 23/6/17

It is time for Around the Traps yet again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew King on are-heatwaves-worsening-and-have-hot-days-doubled-in-australia-in-the-last-50-years
• Dennis Muller on mixed-media-how-australias-newspapers-became-locked-in-a-war-of-left-versus-right
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australia-is-facing-an-interest-rates-dilemma , vital-signs-it-will-take-more-than-asking-for-a-pay-rise-to-fix-australias-wages-problem
• Croaking Cassandra on the-oecd-survey-process , the-secretary-to-the-treasury-on-productivity , emissions-policy-and-immigration-policy, monetary-policy-towards-the-next-recession , a-few-scattered-thoughts-prompted-by-the-ocr, leadership-and-accountability
• Jeff Borland on three-charts-on-how-part-time-work-is-growing-more-slowly-but-more-men-are-doing-it
• Michelle Grattan on australians-shy-away-from-trump-but-strongly-embrace-the-alliance-lowy-poll
• April Reside et al on land-clearing-on-the-rise-as-legal-thinning-proves-far-from-clear-cut
• Ross Guest and Kirsten McDonald on what-australia-can-learn-from-the-new-zealand-retirement-system
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-few-signs-of-life-for-Turnbull-Government
• Lennert Veerman on taxing-sugary-drinks-would-boost-productivity-not-just-health
• Terry Goldsworthy on three-charts-on-australias-declining-homicide-rates
• Bjorn Sturmnberg on get-in-on-the-ground-floor-how-apartments-can-join-the-solar-boom
• Jessie Blackburn on restricting-bail-and-parole-for-those-with-terror-links-is-no-cure-all
• David Blowers on the-governments-new-energy-plans-will-leave-investors-less-confident-than-ever
• Greg Jericho on higher-wages-would-be-nice-mr-lowe-but-weak-unions-make-it-unlikely

Northern America

• Economic Principals on the Landscape Architure
• Jeffrey Binbaum on congress-cant-pretend-tax-cuts-pay-for-themselves Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on congress-wants-to-micromanage-the-federal-reserve-what-could-go-wrong-with-that Thanks Mark
• Money and Banking on the-treasurys-missed-opportunity Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on new-evidence-for-a-lower-new-normal-in-interest-rates Thanks Mark
• James Hamilton on fed-balance-sheet-reduction-not-scaring-anyone
• IRLE on seattles-minimum-wage-experience-2015-16 Thanks Mark
• Greg Lieserson on its-no-surprise-that-the-kansas-tax-cut-experiment-failed-to-create-jobs Thanks Brad
• Newdeal democrat on this-is-a-big-deal-housing-permits-and-starts-now-a-long-leading-negative
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-may-existing-home-sales , a-few-comments-on-may-new-home-sales
• Nick Bunker on value-added/is-the-fed-being-misguided-by-the-phillips-curve Thanks Brad
• Matthew Yglesias on republicans-are-in-trouble
• Noah Smith on noah-smackdown-illegal-immigration-edition , the-wrong-kind-of-entrepreneurs-flourish-in-america
• Tim Duy on feds-labor-market-forecasts-dont-make-sense Thanks Mark
• Micro-economic insights on health-insurance-competition-effects-premiums-hospital-rates-welfare Thanks Mark
• Chris Edelson on what-happens-if-trumps-white-house-invokes-executive-privilege
• Sarah Kilff on senate-plan-better-care-reconciliation-act
• Ezra Klein on senate-gop-health-bill-poor-pay-more
• David Frum on the-lasting-damage-of-trumps-tapes-bluff

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on the-end-of-the-cosy-game-of-politics , selecting-for-corbynism
• Stephen Grenville on greek-debt-kicked-down-road-yet-again

Asia

• Roger Shanahan on us-making-policy-on-the-run-on-syria
• Greg Earl on does-abe-want-fast-track-constitutional-reform
• Mark Valencia on us-china-sea-incidents-are-likely-new-normal
• Michael Barr on singapore-very-informative-family-feud
• Anthony Bubalo on /saudi-succession-shuffle
• Aaron L Connelly on trump-and-southeast-asia-going-through-motions

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on raising-inflation-target , austerity-will-only-end-when-our-leaders-start-being-honest
• Tim Harford on the-age-of-the-microsoft-and-amazon-economy
• David Glasner on hayek-and-rational-expectations
• long and variable on there-is-a-capitalist-logic-to-requisitioning-empty-property-near-a-disaster , disaster-economics
• Promarket on blockchain-going-revolutionize-central-banking-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Guillame Calafat and Eric Monnett on The-Return-of-Economic-History Thanks Brad
• Timothy Taylor on unions-in-decline-some-international , the-story-of-robert-keayne-Protocapitalist
• stumbling and mumbling on free-markets-need-equality , the-lack-of-demand-for-equality
• Eric Lonergan on secular-stability
• Noah Smith on capitalism-can-thrive-without-cooking-the-planet
• A fine Theorem on the-development-effects-of-the-extractive-colonial-economy Thanks Mark

General

• Brian Resnick on alex-jones-megyn-kelly-lies-nbc-psychology-illusory-truth
• Cassandra's Legacy on the-fall-of-western-empire-collapse-is-not-a-bug-It-is-a-feature
• Shaping Tomorrow on can repeating false information help people remember true information
• Frances Woolley on how-to-value-aboriginal-language-television-programming
• Barkely rosser on should-cultural-appropriation-by-elvis-be-condemned?
• Louise Pryke on friday-essay-the-legend-of-ishtar-first-goddess-of-love-and-war
• Understanding Society on explanation-and-critical-realism Thanks Mark
• Benjamin Isakhan and Jose Zaradona on destroying-mosuls-great-mosque-islamic-states-symbolic-war-to-the-end
• Stephan Lewardoswky on repeat-or-not-repeat-myth-during-debunking

Climate

• David Appell on abdussamatov-solar-irradiance
• and Then There's Physics on what-does-the-vostok-ice-core-tell-us
• Arctic sea ice on will-petermann-calve-another-one-this-summer
• Variable Variability on pause-hiatus-recent-warming-explosion
• hotwhopper on no-hiatus-or-vacation-from-denial
• Cassandra's Legacy on climate-change-how-desperate-can-you-be

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• dont-say-improper-prior-say-non-generative-model
• breaking-data-little-pieces-putting-back-together
• not-everyones-aware-falsificationist-bayes
• peptidegate-proposed-new-slogan-ppnas
• developers-use-spaces-make-money-use-tabs
• incentives-matter-congress-wall-street-edition
• Junkcharts on some-like-it-packed-some-like-it-piled-and-some-like-it-wrapped , how-to-read-survey-results-chocolate-milk-edition , even-more-incompetence-in-reporting-survey-results-washington-post-on-the-hotseat
• John Cook on fractional-parts-invariant-measures-and-simulation
• Statschat on whats-brown-and-sticky
• John Cook on extreme-beta-distributions , polynomials-evaluated-at-integers

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Econometric Sense on instrumental-variables-vs-intent-to-treat

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• wise-and-foolish-finance
• the-past-and-future-of-money
• some-very-old-truths-in-economics
• Tim Harford on what-are-the-best-books-about-the-history-of-technology
• Corey Robin on on-china-mievilles-october

Vox Wonk

• commercial-value-news-internet-era
• border-adjustment-tax
• public-attitudes-immigration-salience-matters
• intergenerational-mobility-and-preferences-redistribution
• turning-germany-s-bad-trade-surplus-good-experience-all
• eu-macroeconomic-imbalance-procedure-some-impact-and-no-sanction
• price-manipulation-bitcoin-ecosystem
• why-you-should-never-use-hodrick-prescott-filter
• shedding-night-time-light-local-resource-curse
• cyber-attacks-economic-policy-challenge

Polling update

The inimitable Kevin Bonham has his usual excellent analysis of the latest polls for the Federal parties.
It seems to me voters have made up their mind. I tend to agree with Kevin that this Government certainly has the smell of the ALP Government going into the 1996 election. no matter what it tries nothing seems to increase its vote. We have to remember that the Government in essence has always been behind in the polls since the last election.This is  unheard of.

Me thinks plenty of leadership speculation to come and of course with Tony Abbott making comments which the press play up then the disunity tag is easily applied to the Liberals.

I really do not think even the Liberals are so stupid as to make Abbott leader again. Unlike Rudd he has never been liked the the electorate and to be blunt he is still an embarrassment and a bore when he is interviewed ( 2GB in Sydanee do it twice a week).

I am hoping they make Peter Dutton leader and he thus loses his seat at the next election when he is shown completely out of his depth. Andrew Elder will be go apoplectic

Disaster economics

Following on from Yesterdays article by Simon Wren-Lewis.

Today I have another highly interesting article by a clever pom namely Tony Yates  of  Long and Variable fame.
It is all about Disaster economics.

Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say.

Central Banks should increase their inflation targets

Simon Wren-Lewis has a very good article essentially on this area.He makes a lot of very good points

Enjoy.