Monday, 15 September 2014

Iraq, Now and then

I doubt if there are many people who do not wish the policy goal of eliminating ISIS or whatever it wants to be called.
However there must be a main goal. The Allies must know what it is and this when it is achieved.

When The USA and other counties illegally invaded Iraq previously no-one knew why. The reason was unknown.Given this it followed there was little idea of when the military should leave the country.
We knew at the time Iraq posed little threat to its neighbours let alone to the USA or the UK. They knew they posed no WMDS. ( Howard was told by two Australian inspectors Iraq had no chemical weapons and then one day after being told that said exactly the opposite!. Read Greg Barton's book!).

It couldn't have been it was because Hussein was a 'bad' man because he was the only one toppled.
Hence we have no idea of the real reason for the invasion

In the end what resulted was the present mess.

This means Iraqi polity must understand they are one of the main ( but not only) reasons for the current problem.

We can only hope the current leaders are far more competent than the ones who lead us there in the first place!

Saturday, 13 September 2014

Kelly's Heroes

This was a great movie.

Clint Eastwood at his grimacing best, Telly Savalas, Donald Sutherland, Don Rickles, Harry Dean Stanton  the list goes on.

Here is the them song for that movie

Thursday, 11 September 2014

Around the Traps 12/9/14

It is time for Around the Traps.

Cricket season has started so updates on Sunday if I am lucky.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 10 September 2014

Cricket starts on Saturday

come Saturday cricket starts again.

I am now in my 13th year of Junior cricket.
I am a firm believer that a boy inculcated with the values of the spirit of cricket will have a head start in life. Accepting the Umpires decision will help him when he starts work. Understanding how the team works will help him again when he is employed.
The encouragement of team mates and no abuse towards opponents again so.

I am not only umpiring , in Shires, but for some reason the local Umpires have put me in  charge. It could be it is because their numbers have increased from around 2 to 8-10 depending on the weekend and the jobs of some of the locals.

All in all there is a lot of fun coming up.

Some prats put concrete where you put the stumps so over 2 dozen teenagers couldn't play today.

Thanks a lot!

Tuesday, 9 September 2014

Tony Makin makes a fool of himself

Tony Makin put out a paper for the Minerals council. In it he attempts to show the fiscal stimulus the Previous Government had actually made things worse.
No-one would be surprised that Henry Ergas, Sinclair Davidson and Judith Sloan all think it is fantastic.

Treasury responded and it was devastating

Just a couple of the clangers Makin made and the three amigos neglected to talk about:

  • Makin's understanding of the Mundell-Fleming hypothesis is  'ahem' limited
  • Makin calims export growth was the main reason.Except exports FELL. They just fell LESS than imports. That is why Net exports made the contribution to growth in the December quarter of 2008
  • Makin claimed the $A rose. It actually fell quite a bit.
This person has a job at a University and he cannot even do basic research!

Before finishing with this bit of academic garbage I should add Davidson is a believer it was monetary policy that caused the December quarter and following to be positive ( after he forecast it would be negative).
Now I did my Masters degree on Monetary policy. I have have never heard nor read of a lag so quick. Remember the RBA only started to cut rates in September. The other problem is these people will NEVER tell you the stance of Monetary policy and how they are measuring it. 
I can tell you some people  the RBA think this theory is absurd and the people expounding it simply lacking any understanding of how monetary policy works!  Amen to that brother.

added bonus Steve from Brisbane has his say.

Monday, 8 September 2014

Climate Denialism

We have seen two classic examples of climate denialism over the last week.

Firstly on the domestic front we had some manufactured controversy on how the Bureau of Meteorology gets the temperatures for the Australian continent.

On this I will outsource to the ever excellent Steve from Brisbane's blog.

Graham Redfearn shows up the ever hopeless research with regard to the denialists.

Meanwhile Matt Ridley wrote some rubbish in the WSJ. Jim Rose  amongst others gave it some publicity. Jeffrey Sachs excoriated it.

All in all it showed up denialists as  either very lazy or very stupid people who will go to great lengths to lie about what is happening to the climate of the world.

Very sad.

Sunday, 7 September 2014

The First Year of the LNP government

We have seen a number of people comment of the first year of the present Government.
From Friday's EXCELLENT Around the Traps here are three:

  1. Michelle Grattan
  2. Lenore Taylor
  3. Mumble
I thought I might just give another reason why it had no honeymoon and is the most unpopular first term Government in polling history.
In Opposition they were inherently lazy. We saw this firstly in their policies in the 2010 election.
Even when it was clear to every man and his dog they would win the 2013 election pretty easily they continued to be.
This can be seen in this Kouk's piece.
Only a complete imbecile would have promised a budget surplus in every year of their first term.

This showed a complete disregard on why nominal GDP has been so weak and how important nominal GDP is to government revenue. We can see Hockey had no idea of the weak state of the Australian economy coming into the election!

The laziness came be seen in their complete disregard to saying one thing before the election and then something completely different after the election. It can also be seen in how they 'negotiate' with minor parties in the Senate.

It can also be seen in the pathetic efforts to explain away they haven't broken any promises at all.

This can all change.
Here are some suggested changes the government could adopt in no particular order:
  • Adopt what the National party did to industrial relations in New Zealand indeed just copy the 96 pages! You de-regulate the labour market further. You do it to better labour market outcomes not to destroy trade unions. It worked there and it will work here.
  • Get a strategy together that will boost Nominal GDP. Wayne Swan's experience will tell you austerity makes it worse. Let's face it if nominal GDP is still weak in 20126 then your government is cactus.
  • Do not be so overtly political. Saying the cupboard is bare and then setting up two blatantly political Royal Commissions
  • Fess up and say yes you did brake promises however you had to do it because of ...