Around the Traps 25/9/20

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bruce Bradbury and Peter Whiteford on unemployment-support-will-be-slashed-by-300-this-week-this-wont-help-people-find-work
• renew economy on does-scott-morrison-have-any-idea-what-a-big-battery-can-actually-do, morrison-performs-massive-backflip-on-liddell-gigawatt-gas-plan, taylor-favours-fossil-fuels-and-farmers-as-roadmap-picks-five-technology-winners, tesla-big-battery-in-south-australia-delivers-stunning-windfall-profits
• Greg Jericho on recent-australian-unemployment-rates-didnt-seem-to-make-sense-heres-what-is-going-on
• Yum Jiang on pro-china-nationalists-are-using-intimidation-to-silence-critics-can-they-be-countered-without-stifling-free-speech
• Croaking Cassandra on productivity-and-politicians-who-no-longer-care
• Andrew Macgee and Anthony Kiem on our-new-model-shows-australia-can-expect-11-tropical-cyclones-this-season
• Mark Crosby on why-do-bankers-behave-so-badly-they-make-too-much-money-to-ask-questions
• Danielle Fitzpatrick on building-covid-vaccine-strategy-australia
• Institutional Economics on debelle-talks-up-rba-balance-sheet
• Ross Gittins on how-economists-got-it-wrong-for-so-long
• Kevin Bonham on newspoll-sound-of-narratives-dying
• Rick Mortn on by-2020-standards-angus-taylors-low-emissions-technology-statement-is-not-really-a-climate-policy
• Theo Nirmalathas on nbn-upgrades-explained-how-will-they-make-internet-speeds-faster-and-will-the-regions-miss-out
• Chris Edmond and Bruce Preston on keating-is-right-the-reserve-bank-should-do-more-it-needs-to-aim-for-more-inflation
• Chiara Holgate et al on we-looked-at-35-years-of-rainfall-and-learnt-how-droughts-start-in-the-murray-darling-basin
• Dale Boccabella on testamentary-trusts-are-one-of-the-last-truly-outrageous-means-of-avoiding-tax

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-trade-war-has-cost-175000-manufacturing-jobs-and-counting, cbo-on-the-macro-impact-of-pandemic-recovery-packages-thus-far
• Kate Bahn et al on wage-discrimination-and-the-exploitation-of-workers-in-the-u-s-labor-market Thanks Brad
• Jonathin Entin on ruth-bader-ginsburg-helped-shape-the-modern-era-of-womens-rights-even-before-she-went-on-the-supreme-court
• Jared Mondschein on this-is-why-the-fight-over-the-supreme-court-could-make-the-us-presidential-election-even-nastier
• Adam Henschke on america-s-breaking-point
• Tyler Cowen on what-does-qanon-stand-for
• Erin Hurley on the-interpreter/ginsburg-s-pendulum
• Lili Loofbourow on ruth-bader-ginsburg-death-mitch-mcconnell
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-august-existing-home-sales, a-few-comments-on-august-new-home-sales
• David Rhode on how-trumps-supreme-court-maneuver-could-dangerously-increase-the-powers-of-the-president
• The conversable economist on where-federal-debt-is-headed
• Zack Beachamp on 
• Barton Gellman on what-if-trump-refuses-concede
• Pamela Garlin on our-most-vulnerable-election
• David Rhode on how-trumps-supreme-court-maneuver-could-dangerously-increase-the-powers-of-the-president
• Geoffrey Skelley on trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them
• Sean Rameswaram on fauci-rand-paul-covid-19-vaccine-trust-cdc-fda
• Adam Estes and Rebecca Heilweil on voter-fraud-trump-qanon-conspiracy-theory-2020-election

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on blaming-the-voters
• Coppolla comment on statistics-for-state-pension-age

Asia

• Suzanne Levi-Sanchez on china-s-gambit-tajikistan-partner-or-overlord
• Aartu Bettigeri on india-puts-relations-japan-back-rails
• Khang Vu on south-china-sea-map-wasn-t
• Eric Kramer on chinas-climate-announcement

Wonk

• Brian Resnik on covid-19-airborne-who-aerosol-droplet-transmission-cdc
• Mainly Macro on why-neoliberalism-can-end-in-autocratic-populist-and incompetent-plutocracy
• Daniel Flitton on how-much-did-spies-really-know-about-virus
• renew economy on the-end-of-fossil-fuel-cars-tesla-battery-gains-to-trigger-30-trillion-ev-boom
• Frances Wooley on men-women-and-the-end-of-mandatory-retirement

General

• Luke Steffer and Martin Van Kranandonk on if-there-is-life-on-venus-how-could-it-have-got-there-origin-of-life-experts-explain
• the conversable economist on advice-on-writing-from-ruth-bader

Climate

• and Then Theres Phyics on evidence-led

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-challenge-of-fitting-good-advice-into-a-coherent-course-on-statistics
•  derived-quantities-and-generative-models
•  his-data-came-out-in-the-opposite-direction-of-his-hypothesis-how-to-report-this-in-the-publication
  
• bill-james-is-back
  
• the-misplaced-burden-of-proof-and-2-selection-bias-two-reasons-for-the-persistence-of-hype-in-tech-and-science-reporting
  
• pictures-represent-facts-stories-represent-acts-and-models-represent-concepts
  
• statschat on chloroquine-trial-exaggerations
• Kaiser Fung on masks-and-vaccines, notes-on-the-moderna-vaccine-trial-protocol-1, good-news-from-cornell

Econometrics

• The Grumpy Economist on romer-on-testing
• Freakometrics on from an abuse of language

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• economics-for-social-animals
  
• docs books on rage-by-bob-woodward Thanks Jim rose
• Marilyn Lake on review-new-biography-shows-vida-goldsteins-political-campaigns-were-courageous-her-losses-prophetic
• Erin Hurley on reckless-president-emboldened

Vox Wonk

• intergenerational-transmission-wealth-rich-countries
  
• combined-active-labour-market-policies-and-income-support-can-improve-workers-perspectives
  
• formal-insurance-and-religious-offerings-ghana
  
• wind-turbines-and-solar-farms-drive-down-house-prices
  
• effectiveness-managed-competition-during-pandemics
  
• jumpstarting-international-currency
  
• trademark-applications-indicator-post-covid-economic-activity
  
• organising-high-quality-conference-equal-access
  
• age-rising-inequality-no-yes
  
• local-covid-19-policies-us-impact-rest-country
  
• social-distancing-macrodynamic-models
  
• income-inequality-and-welfare-state-during-covid-19
  
• shecession-she-recession-2020-causes-and-consequences
  
• minimal-effects-tv-debates-between-candidates
  
• armington-elasticity-and-international-trade-models-fifty-years
  
• buy-british-viability-nationalist-commercial-policy
  
• how-americans-use-time-saved-working-home
  
• cross-border-venture-capital-technology-flows-and-national-security
  
• sovereign-risk-after-covid-19
  
• tale-three-depressions
  
• tracking-compliance-eu-fiscal-rules
  

I thought Dan Andrews was immensely unpopular.

 Daniel Andrews has taken an absolute battering from the press, mainly the Murdoch press, Yet When I read Kevin Bonham I find this is narrative is dying.

I am trying to ascertain how the Murdoch press is so different to the ordinary Australian ( or in this case Victorian). 

Of course i am being sarcastic!

NBN again

 The government does a back slip with pike on the NBN.

Their original policy made no sense. You simply cannot have copper combined with fibre. It is like putting a sped hump on at Bathurst for motor cars.

It seems to me they have realised three things.

1) Their current policy is an absolute crock so change it now when everyone is concentrating on  covid 

2) When wholesale rates are so low this makes even more sense.

3) their current policy is a vote loser

Why did it take so long. Maybe a quick look at their lack of energy policy tells us it takes them a long time to understand how bad some of their policies are 

West Ryde Smash Repairs

 My wife was unfortunately rear-ended by another teacher when leaving the school she teaches at.

He was insured by the NRMA and we ended up at West Ryde Smash Repairs.

I simply cannot speak highly enough of them. I was given all the information and more that I needed.

What I found interesting when I picked up the car was all employees are still on job keeper. I assumed given the traffic that their work would be back to normal. It is not. It is still well below normal levels.

Replacing Ruth Bader Ginsburg

 Ruth Bader Ginsburg died late last week.

The major question is when should she be replaced.

Given it is essentially only one month and one week until the Presidential election, which is totally unlike Anthony Scalia  who died in February of the last presidential election year, it would seem logical that the winner of the election then nominate the successor to Ginsburg.

Let us leave the utter hypocrisy of the Republicans on this issue for the moment one cannot understand the haste of Republicans unless they believe Trump will lose.

The Senate Majority Leader now is in a pickle. If he goes ahead and attempts to put in a replacement post haste he will not only put the credibility of politicians further down the ladder but more importantly he will put some senate seats the Republicans hold up for grabs.

Around the Traps 18/9/20 birthday edition

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on regardless-of-covid-restrictions-if-people-are-dying-in-large-numbers-your-economy-is-stuffed, wishing-for-the-public-sector-to-shrink-is-wishing-for-less-economic-activity-when-its-most-needed
• Tanya Howard on the-nsw-koala-wars-showed-one-thing-the-nationals-appear-ill-equipped-to-help-rural-australia 
• renew economy on energy-incumbents-query-aemo-governance-in-move-to-clip-its-wings, i-dont-know-why-they-dont-get-it-lynham-laments-taylor-blindspot-on-renewables, morrison-casts-dark-shadow-over-energy-transition-with-massive-gas-intervention, arena-to-be-given-1-4-billion-as-coalition-channels-funds-to-ccs-evs-and-pubs, are-cannon-brookes-and-elon-musk-about-to-team-up-for-big-battery-plans, does-scott-morrison-have-any-idea-what-a-big-battery-can-actually-do
• Paul McInerney et al  on how-bushfires-and-rain-turned-our-waterways-into-cake-mix-and-what-we-can-do-about-it
• Tom Bridge et al on the-first-step-to-conserving-the-great-barrier-reef-is-understanding-what-lives-there
• Samantha Hepburn on no-prime-minister-gas-doesnt-work-for-all-australians-and-your-scare-tactics-ignore-modern-energy-problems
• Kevin Bonham on age-and-canberra-are-still-killing-state-governments, curiouser-and-curiouser
• croaking cassandra on productivity-and-gdp
• Saul Eslake on tasmanias-tax-system-is-broken-here-are-three-ways-to-fix-it
• Julian Savulescu on is-lockdown-worth-the-pain-no-its-a-sledgehammer-and-we-have-better-options
• Simon Holmes A'Court on angus-taylors-gas-plan-is-an-astoundingly-bad-idea-on-so-many-levels
• John Quiggin on to-get-the-economy-going-well-need-more-than-hard-hats

Northern America

• Eliza Barclay et al on california-wildfires-2020-orange-sky-august-complex
• the conversable economist on 100-million-traffic-stops-evidence-on-racial-discrimination, ceoworker-pay-ratios, why-foreign-direct-investment-was-already-sagging
• Ezra Klein on bush-iraq-financial-crisis-trump-coronavirus-government-small-draper-book
• Simon Jackman on the-us-presidential-election-might-be-closer-than-the-polls-suggest-if-we-can-trust-them-this-time
• Mubashar Hasan on bangladesh-fight-power-shut-up
• Andrew Prokop on woodward-rage-trump-coronavirus
• Jeremy Youde on where-us-went-wrong-pandemic
• Pamela Karlan on our-most-vulnerable-election
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-august-housing-starts
• Rod Lamberts and Will J Grant on science-is-political-scientific-american-has-endorsed-joe-biden-over-trump-for-president-australia-should-take-note

Europe

• Mainly Macro on whether-its-covid-or-brexit-this-government-is-continuing-to-fail-terribly-at-everything-it-does
• Daniel Woker on australian-solution-wont-fix-johnson-s-europe-problem
• Nikola Mikovic on protests-power-struggles-russia-s-far-east
• stumbling and mumbling on conceptions-of-politics

Asia

• Nishank Motwani on real-peace-afghanistan-needs-plan-b
• Barkley Rosser on the-bahrain-israel-mutual-recognition
• Titlu Basu on making-prime-minister-suga
• Donna Weeks on suga-steps-in-at-least-now
• Ben Rich on is-it-too-soon-to-herald-the-dawn-of-a-new-middle-east-it-all-depends-what-the-saudis-do-next

Wonk

• Brad De Long on five-books-on-the-classical-economists-five-books-expert-recommendations
• Ben Saul on exchanging-killers-for-peace-in-afghanistan-is-wrong-and-could-have-lasting-consequences
• Dirk Baur and Allen Trench on in-gold-we-trust-why-bullion-is-still-a-safe-haven-in-times-of-crisis
• Jacques Raubenheimer on now-everyones-a-statistician-heres-what-armchair-covid-experts-are-getting-wrong
• Tim Harford on we-wont-remember-much-of-what-we-did-in-the-pandemic
• stumbling and mumbling on the-hayek-question
• Institutional Economics on p/the-myth-of-stealth-qe
• the conversable economist on africa-is-not-five-countries, stock-buybacks-leverage-vs-managerial-self dealing
• Menzie Chinn on nominal-income-targeting-and-measurement-issues
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-50-years-ago-milton-friedman-told-us-greed-was-good-he-was-half-right
• John Quiggin on firm-specific-skills-and-working-from-home

General

• Laurau McKemmish on life-on-venus-traces-of-phosphine-may-be-a-sign-of-biological-activity

Climate

• David Roberts on climate-change-west-coast-fires-cause-charts
• and Then Theres Physics on cosmopolitan-knowledge
• James Shulmeister on climate-explained-will-the-tropics-eventually-become-uninhabitable
• Moyhu on giss-august-global-down-by-005-from-july
• Real Climate on new-studies-confirm-weakening-of-the-gulf-stream-circulation

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-we-kept-the-trig-in-golf-mathematical-simplicity-is-not-always-the-same-as-conceptual-simplicity
• congressional-representation-accountability-from-the-constituents-perspective
• what-are-my-statistical-principles
• 2-economics-nobel-prizes-1-error
• figure-1-looks-like-random-variation-to-me-indeed-so-it-does-and-figure-2-as-well-but-statistical-significance-was-found-so-this-bit-of-randomness-was-published-in-a-top-journal
• coronavirus-disparities-in-palestine-and-in-michigan
• election-forecasts-the-math-the-goals-and-the-incentives-my-talk-this-wed-afternoon-at-cornell-university
• taking-the-bus
• low-rate-of-positive-coronavirus-tests
• in-case-youre-wondering-this-is-why-the-u-s-health-care-system-is-the-most-expensive-in-the-world
• everything-that-can-be-said-can-be-said-clearly
• election-scenario-explorer-using-economist-election-model
• we-want-certainty-even-when-its-not-appropriate
• James empty blog on weekly-rrrrrrreport
• statschat on bogus-skincare-surveys, undetected-covid-cases
• Kaiser Fung on story-first-thinking, what-to-make-of-the-vaccine-pledge, i-feel-sad-for-those-who-had-to-roll-out-the-methdology-change-bls-seasonal-adjustment, confusion-over-case-trends-and-positivity-ratios-an-aftertaste-of-targeted-testing

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on lawrence-r-klein-at-100
• Marc Bellamare on new version on paper

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-joy-of-statistics, fictional-mobility
• Shane McCleod on book-review-where-borders-aren-t-always-badlands

vox wonk

• what-really-drives-inflation
• fallen-angels-and-indirect-contagion
• withering-cash-sweden-seems-special-rather-ahead-curve
• labour-market-effects-covid-19-sweden-and-its-neighbours
• role-prostitution-markets-domestic-violence-during-covid-19
• measuring-cost-living-mexico-and-us
• issues-arising-new-powell-doctrine
• capital-markets-covid-19-and-policy-measures
• testing-meritocracy-university-admissions
• international-tourism-and-short-run-growth
• why-we-may-trust-registered-clinical-trials
• china-s-mask-diplomacy
• building-strategy-resilience
• globalisation-and-fall-markups-poland
• modelling-evolution-trade-relationships-1970
• extracting-implicit-country-weights-ecb-s-monetary-policy
• immigration-and-top-1

more on reducing emissions and a sustainable economy

We examined the PM's bizarre proposal to have a large gas fired power station.

Everything would go swimmingly if we simply introduced a price on carbon. We both deal with the negative externalities  and ensure business knows what is occurring.

The electricity industry in particular would boom in terms of renewables.

Another industry to benefit would be transport. It would exacerbate the trend to electric and hybrid cars. Of course much stronger emission standards would help. As we have said previously if we had the same standards as say Europe car prices should fall.