Thursday, 21 May 2015

Around the Traps 22/5/15

It is time again for Around the Traps.
'Mathiness' in economics articles in wonk section

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 20 May 2015

Will the 'small business'package boost the economy?

I have to say I have yet to meet anyone who actually understands what the small business package means to either small business or to the economy.
My own experience from last Saturday when my youngest boy played football at meadowbank park is most people thought the government was giving away 20,000k to every small business.

Not so.
ROSS GITTINS has it right.

There will be a slight positive effect on the economy. The capacity to rort is minimal as you must earn income to claim against.

A person working from home could make improvements to their home BUT there is little flexibility here. If for example. you work in a home office at your home and it around a quarter of your house that is all you can claim.
You could certainly update all the computers at home if you have the income.To claim a new car or used car you need to show it is essential to the business as it is to a tradesman for example.

Overall I suspect when people in small businesses talk to their accountants and realise what the policy is all about then the present 'exuberance' will subside.

Tuesday, 19 May 2015

A public service to Catallaxy

Yesterday Katsey didn't have a clue about PEFO and MYEFO. What made it worse was no-one else did either.
Sinclair Davidson finally put up his head to declare that maybe perhaps PEFO were better figures. However HERE he tries to imply there is much of a difference between the two.

He says this "Alberici is in a perfectly legitimate position to suggest that she prefers the information contained in PEFO (apparently non-partisan) over the (probably partisan) information contained in the MYEFO. That is not inherently a Labor argument. That is the policy design and intent that the Howard government had when it established the Charter of Budget Honesty."

Now if we take this at face value then Davidson doesn't quite understand what the essential difference is.

A statement by the Secretaries of Treasury and Finance would be seen by any person as non-partisan as they are NOT under any Government direction. On the other hand MYEFO is under Government direction and given the short period between the two documents a substantial amount of direction was given.
 I have outlined the differences previously HERE.
To quote myself:

The only changes to PEFO and MYEFO are:
  • Changes in Government policy
  • Changes in economic parameters

As I said about the MYEFO at the time the main changes to the deficit was Government decisions not changes in economic parameters.. Yet the Government as exemplified by Cormann was blaming the Previous ALP Government for their own spending decisions outlined in MYEFO.
It is seen at its worst in the blatantly political Inter-Generational report.

The ALP record  on leaving can only be seen by the PEFO figures and never by the  MYEFO figures. If a person does not understand that then they should go to University and study economics and enquire about how to interpret budget documents.


A person has e-mailed /rebuked me for not outlining that GROSS debt must increase each year every year because of the BASEL rules that increase the number of bonds issued. see HERE

Monday, 18 May 2015

'Budget' polling

The polls since the budget have been brought down.

First the imitable Mark the Ballot HERE and HERE.

Naturally if one is to make sense of this we need to read KEVIN BONHAM.

The nub is they still say an ALP victory. Remember the Coalition only need 49% of the 2PP vote to win the election.

Sunday, 17 May 2015

Paid Parental Leave

Paid Parental leave became news last week mainly because of the incompetence of the Government.

Sue Williamson from Friday's Around the Traps gives us a good understanding of why it was brought in.

The important thing to understand is that the Government brought in the policy to AUGMENT policies out in the market place. Very few if any current policies allow for six months paid parental leave. The Commonwealth policy of 18 weeks paid at the MINIMUM wage allows most mothers to have the first six months of the baby's life with their child. This is the ILO recommendation done at the behest of the WHO.
( If you are interested here is what is offered around the world courtesy of the ILO)

Thus it is IMPOSSIBLE to double dip on such a policy because of the design of the policy. It was announced by the Minister at the time ( Jenny Macklin). Neither is it a rort or a fraud when people use it. People who think it does are either liars or ignorant.
On the politics I am with Andrew Elder.


I am reminded that Abbott's original PPL women got 6 months leave.

Thursday, 14 May 2015

Around the Traps 15/5/15

It is time for Around the Traps.  updating hopefully on sunday.

Northern America

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 13 May 2015