Tuesday, 17 September 2019

Have Economists dropped the ball on climate Change?

Andrew Oswald and Nicholas Stern believe they have in their provocative piece on Vox wonk as I call it. It really is a wonderful site.

Monday, 16 September 2019

Gladys Lui problems explained

We wrote last week about Gladys Lui and the number of questions she must answer.

She was a member of at least communist China front organisations. One very important and influential committee was for eleven years. ( see Clive Hamilton's article in previous article.)

Why would a person who claimed to move from Hong Kong because of poor circumstances be  on such committees. Just remember she was invited onto these committees to promote Communist China.
We can only assume because she built a good network of very wealthy people from Hog Kong. To be very wealthy in Hong Kong you MUST be good relations with communist China.

This also relates to her fundraising for the Liberal party. Why did the Liberal party return funds because of where the money came from.

This is also related why the previous Prime Minister elected ( pun intended) to bypass a find raiser held in Chisholm by Gladys Lui

Lui has not responded in parliament nor has she released a statement rather  Morrison's own department has on her behalf.

This begs the question of why?

The answer is IF Lui  responded in Parliament  to the allegations and it was shown to be false she would be forced to resign from Parliament. Also Morrison can always say he will not answer anything to do with ASIO relation to Lui.
Morrison is betting people will get bored with this issue if nothing more is released i]on this issue and then move on.

We shall see. As both Michelle Grattan and Katherine Murphy attest there is nothing racist or even a smear in asking questions about Gladys Lui

Thursday, 12 September 2019

Around the Traps 16/9/19

It is time yet again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
  • nutting 
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 11 September 2019

Gladys Liu has a lot of questions to answer

Gladys Liu the new member of Chisholm is in a lot of trouble.
I will let Clive Hamilton do the hours.

On a prima facie basis she is in a lot of trouble. Asio had a lot of problems with some people at one of her fundraisers. The State Libs in Victoria gave back a substantial amount because of 'concerns'.
She keeps on changing her story and worse makes absurd claims such as I don't remember.

Clearly the voters in Chisholm are seen to be wood-ducks now if not earlier. She is known for using 'dirty tricks' in politics.

Let me make some brave forecasts.
1) The Government will NOT allow Liu to resign under any circumstances.
2) Liu will continue to be a millstone around Morrison's neck . ( how good is that sarc)
3) Liu will not contest the next federal election.


Morrison had a press conference and avoided any comment on either the ASIO recommendation that Turnbull avoid the Liu function or that the State Libs gave back money that Liu had gained.


Tuesday, 10 September 2019

The last election. Why did Labor lose?

Kevin Bonham relooks at the last election in view of the ANU survey.

It is a MUST read.

Say no more!!!.

Monday, 9 September 2019

ScoMo does not understand basic economics

Leigh Sales asked Scott Morrison a good question. He clearly did not understand it.

On a very basic level the government now has a surplus. It is taking money out of the economy. In very good times this is good as Keynes said in 1936 as it is offset by the private sector. however this is not occurring at present.

The RBA is doing as much as it can but cutting rates when they are already low aint going to do much. Phillip Lowe has repeatedly called for more Infrastructure spending.

Now we know here it is not the overall deficit/surplus that makes a difference to changing the economy but the Structural deficit/surplus. Se Here and Here for example.

Lowe is implying the changing in the structural budget deficit is not enough to boost the economy.

Interestingly Chritoph Boehm has written a very interesting article where he n makes the point public consumption not investment has a greater multiplier effect.  I leave that for the moment although one would expect greater economic benefits if the infrastructure projects were on the list of Infrastructure Australia's list of priorities which only TWO are..

I have said previously also the government is hoping It can retain its surplus ( most economists would say it is merely balanced being less than 1% of GDP)  and somehow the economy recovers.  This might happen but then again the recovery could well be tepid.

Sunday, 8 September 2019

Has China woken the Dragon in Hong Kong?

The Chinese government and their acolytes have been shown to be chumps in Hong Kong.

The law to extradite people to mainland China was seen for what it was and there were HUGE demonstrations against the bill.

The hapless leader has only just dais the bill is dead. Why she took so long to say this simply shows what a poor politician she is and that is what she is supposed to be.
Indeed I think it can be said she has NO credibility and will  never have any and there will be no progress whilst she remains leader.

What the Chinese political leadership has done in a very ironical sense is wake the dragon on Hong Kong. Whilst billionaires who make their money by their communist 'connections' want closer relations with Chins most in Hong Kong do not.

What has started out as a large protest against a diabolical bill has morphed into almost a Hong Kong independence movement. There seems little likelihood of this protest falling away anytime soon.

What can the Chinese leadership do?
This is Hong Kong remember not Beijing. The political consequences both locally and internationally if Chinese armed forces marched in and started shooting would be unimaginable. The protests for example would escalate and Hong Kong would come to a standstill.
This would override anything else happening on the world stage for China.

What can they do?

I am no expert but Ii would say two things
1) Be patient. at some time the demonstration will start to fall away unless provocative action occurs.
2) Replace the hapless leader because of sickness or she wants more time with her family.