Thursday, 30 October 2014

Around the Traps 31/10/14

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Cricket al Weekend so updating could be problematic.

Northern America
 on will-somebody-please-think-of-the-data-generating-processGeneral
Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Greg Hunt is a Joke

I keep on hearing Greg Hunt saying the price on carbon had no effect on emissions.
Hugh Saddler gives us the facts. They fell.

Now I hear you ask what occurred after the price was dropped. They started to rise.

Given the large amount of mistakes Hunt has  made ( in parliament the Speaker has to save him ) and his embarrassing performance on 7.30 last night I believe Hunt is an idiot not a liar.

Monday, 27 October 2014

Rafe Champion cannot count!

Poor Old Rafe in THIS article attempts to show similarities between Whitlam and his Government and then Rudd/Gillard and their Governments.

Was there any evidence to back up his assertions?
No sir.
Poor Old Rafe is not a person to let any facts to get in the way of his misguided beliefs

I have dealt with the alleged over-spending ( HERE and HERE)previously. the only people who adopt this arguments are Goebbelsisers or idiots.

Guess which one Poor Old Rafe is?

How very sad!

( yes it is a very slow and boring day.)

Sunday, 26 October 2014

The more things change the more things stay the same

I thought the previous Government had a number of good policies but were terrible at politics. They could sell a beer in a pub.

 An Essential poll found just over 30% of people thought interest rates were higher under the ALP than under Howard and just over 50% thought interest rates were not lower under the ALP!
I put all this down to a generation of poor candidates for the ALP who had no idea of being able to sell a policy and the destructive input from the NSW right wing who simply could not understand a qualitative poll if they fell over one!

However nothing changed with a change of government. The Present government is equally lamentable in selling policies. They seem to think if you say a slogan long enough people will believe you.
Their attempts to explain their broken promises were breath taking in believing just how stupid they thought the electorate was.
They are also  being hit by an electorate whose beliefs on rising prices, electricity prices and the economy are clearly at odds with reality.

( In the USA most of the electorate still believes the deficit is the result of rampart spending and it is  out of control. A shame it is the sharpest drop in the deficit the US has seen since WW2!)

Perhaps we should be examining the quality of  politicians on both sides and be asking ourselves why is this generation sooo bad.

Thursday, 23 October 2014

Around the Traps 24/10/14

It is time for Around the Traps.
Coaching then Umpiring at cricket on Saturday (hopefully) so any updating wil be done on Sunday.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Simon Wren-Lewis explains

Simon is usually one of the more thoughtful economists around and his blog is a must read.

Recently he has written on two topics that anyone who loves or merely understands economics are essentially reading.

First there is the-mythical-phillips-curve

And then there is helicopter-money

Read and enjoy!

Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Gough Whitlam

Gough Whitlam died yesterday.

To begin with I will recount what I heard on 2UE on November 11 1975. Steve Liebman had an afternoon show and he was talking to Katherine West on the political situation when the Daily Telegraph Canberra correspondent came on the line ( Kevin somebody) and said breathlessly Gough has been sacked. Liebman said 'Shit' without knowing what he was saying. 

Gough Whitlam was a great Opposition Leader until winning in 1972.
He was a mediocre PM and then to be blunt a has been in parliament until he retired.

The reason he was a great Opposition Leader was because he reformed the ALP and went around and discovered what policies were needed to bring Australia into the twentieth Century.

In this he was heavily influenced by firstly the Vernon Committee and then Alf Rattigan of the Tariff board which he changed to the Industries Assistance Commission (IAC). Indeed on more than one occasion he declared himself to be a Rattigan man.

The policy program he adopted was highly impressive and would have helped Australia to improve its GDP per capita IF it were implemented cautiously  and successfully.

Whitlam's problem when he became PM was :

  • He had terrible people management skills and needs a good deputy to smooth things over. when Lance Barnard left he never had this
  • He allowed sentiment to overweigh good judgment in terms of cabinet. Thus he inherited a Cabinet of a poor calibre. Whereas he had a good one in his last days.
  • He needed a good treasurer, Treasury and economic advisors. Until Bill Hayden he did not have a good Treasurer. Treasury were not at their best which is why there was a 1974 recession and A lot of Ministers and back benchers lost faith in Treasury. He had no good economic advisors/
  • He thought he could adopt all his program at once and it would only have a positive affect on the economy. He was wrong.
  • In hindsight history would be a lot different if Whitlam had have won in 1969 like he should have.
Yes I agree his sacking was a travesty and Kerr's conduct absolutely disgraceful.However Whitlam's reaction was silly and never thought through.

Following the 1975 election Whitlam was never the same.

As a person he had a very quick and sharp wit. It could be destructive or self deprecating.

Two Four different views
Here are the figure from Budget papers.
Years     Outlays    Revenue      surplus/deficit
1972/3    18.8          19.5               0.7
1973/4    18.4          20.3               1.9
1974/5    21.7          22.3               0.3
1975/76  24.3          22.5              -1.8  

Net debt fell Under Whitlam as a % of GDP!!


I forgot to add prior to Whitlam winning office only HALF of Sydney had proper sewerage!