The NSW Police have a lot to explain

 The NSW police have a mixed record. Way too strict when the lockdown was on. do you remember the jogger who was fined when he decided to eat a Lebanese roll on a seat in a park.

I have written on a few cases involving police here that were either very stupid or police were behaving badly  which is HERE

i have also written about its police commissioner mick Fuller talking porkies and behaving as a politician not a commissioner HERE and HERE.

In the alleged rape case involving a federal politician Police had the lady wanting to make a stateement in February 2000. By June The girl gave up and said forget but was very gracious about it. The next day she took her own life.

What were the NSW police thinking about? Here is a lady alleging a vicious rape yet NSW Police thought it to hard to get a statement because of covid. There were lots of avenues to proceed with but it was way too much for the police to proceed with.

That statement would have meant a police investigation. It is altogether ironic that it could very well been a similar conclusion top the allegation against Bill Shorten. We will never know.

It is a disgrace

Around the Traps 5/3/21

 it is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on the-jobdobber-hotline-is-another-policy-aimed-at-keeping-wages-low, australias-economy-is-recovering-but-remains-very-much-in-need-of-government-stimulus
• Anna Howe on aged-care-death-and-taxes-after-the-royal-commission
• Ross Gittins on funding-budget-by-printing-money-is-closer-than-you-think, only-bipartisanship-will-let-us-relieve-us-of-the-squaller-of-aged-care
• Institutional Economics on the-bond-market-versus-yield-curve, updating-australias-business-cycle
• Neal Hughes on water-markets-arent-perfect-but-they-are-vital-to-the-future-of-the-murray-darling
• Stephen Duckett and Anita Stobart on 4-key-takeaways-from-the-aged-care-royal-commissions-final-report
• Kevin Bonham on the-howard-aggregation-1993-1996
• Sam Roggeveen on how-far-would-australia-go-defence-rules-based-order
• renew economy on aemo-abandons-plan-to-model-gas-led-recovery-after-idea-panned-by-energy-market, aemc-looks-beyond-coal-to-batteries-and-flexible-grid-to-manage-reliability
• Peter Martin on gdp-is-v-shaped-but-not-yet-good-these-three-graphs-tell-the-story
• Dennis Muller on has-christian-porter-been-subjected-to-a-trial-by-media-no-the-media-did-its-job-of-being-a-watchdog
• Jennifer Hsu on politics-being-chinese-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on no-idea-apparently-probably-not-much-interest
• Anabelle Lukin on can-scott-morrisons-rhetorical-style-cut-through-the-rising-tide-of-anger
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-in-the-battle-over-interest-rates-itd-be-unwise-to-bet-against-the-rba
• Rick Sarre on where-do-we-go-from-here-with-the-allegations-about-christian-porter

Northern America

• the conversable economist on the-coming-evolution-electric-power-in-the-US
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on andrew-cuomo-sowing-reaping
• David Graham on americas-andrew-cuomo-problem
• Darryl Pinkney on obama-promised-land-gift-long-game
• Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley on how-someone-like-marjorie-taylor-greene-could-win-again
• Menzie Chinn on a-literature-review-on-economic-policy-response-to-covid-19

Europe

• Mainly Macro on the-budget-should-create-balanced-recovery
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-escape-velocity

Asia

• Graeme Smith on erasing-memory-china-s-tibet
• Michael Beltran on duterte-dynasty
• Anita Singh on india-must-be-realistic-about-russia-relations
• Menzie Chinn on the-rmbs-progress-in-internationalization
• Henry Storey on cracks-beginning-appear-russia-india-relationship

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on noise-interests-democracy, a-defence-of-maths-in-economics
• the grumpy economist on r-g
• Arindrajit Dube on impacts_of_minimum_wages_review_of_the_international_evidence thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on too-many-choices
• the conversable economist on teaching-current-monetary-policy
• Uneasy Money on the-hawley-smoot-tariff-and-the-great-depression

General

• Mardi McLean et al on life-on-the-hidden-doughnuts-of-the-great-barrier-reef-is-also-threatened-by-climate-change
• Roslyn Petelin on youse-wouldnt-believe-it-a-new-book-charts-the-11-year-making-of-a-peoples-dictionary-for-australia

Climate

• real science on laschamps-ing-at-the-bit
• and Then Theres Physics on losing-the-sky, net-zero

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• meg-wolitzer-and-george-v-higgins
  
• i-looked-for-questions-on-the-polio-vaccine-and-saw-one-in-1954-that-asked-if-you-wanted-to-get-it-60-said-yes-and-31-no
  
• here-is-how-you-should-title-the-next-book-you-write
  
• whats-the-best-novel-ever-written-by-an-85-year-old
  
• drew-bailey-on-backward-causal-questions-and-forward-causal-inference
  
• statistical-fallacies-in-international-relations-from-bob-jervis
  
• a-new-approach-to-pandemic-control-by-informing-people-of-their-social-distance-from-exposure
  
• marshmallow-update
  
• earliest-known-uses-of-some-of-the-words-of-mathematics
  
• statschat on trusting-the-wrong-data, is-four-a-lot

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on improved-measurement-of-real-gdp

Dianne Coyle ( quirky - book reviews)

• where-is-the-internet
  

vox wonk

• friedman-vs-phillips-historic-divide
  
• what-happens-if-bitcoin-succeeds
  
• comeback-r-g
  
• worldwide-building-height-gaps-their-determinants-and-their-implications
  
• antitrust-markets-pharmaceutical-industry
  
• oil-markets-fracking-and-global-economy
  
• us-excess-savings-are-not-excessive
  
• africa-s-manufacturing-puzzle-evidence-tanzanian-and-ethiopian-firms
  
• grandparental-childcare-and-covid-19
  
• assessing-aggregate-and-spatial-economic-impact-global-warming
  
• us-business-dynamism-rises
  
• information-sharing-and-geography-banking
  
• ai-and-jobs-evidence-us-vacancies
  
• how-institutional-investment-funds-reach-yield-intensifies-asset-price-volatility
  
• will-schumpeter-catch-covid-19-evidence-france
  
• person-schooling-and-community-spread-covid-19
  

Porter is in a precarious position

 Well Porter outed himself as the man behind the alleged rape.

first could someone tell me why the NSW police did not have a zoom interview with the woman concerned so there would be admissible evidence. This on the surface shows the NSW police quite incompetent.

The next thing is I do not want my first law officer of the land having this hanging over his head it must be resolved. Indeed I doubt whether he can remain as the first law officer. If he was merely minister for industrial relations there would be few problems but not attorney general.

The big thing is the dead lady in question says a violent rape occurred. Porter says they were not even amorous. One of the people is lying.

Unfortunately for Porter we know from her friends this incident changed her personality and proved an incident she could never recover from. It is why she suffered from Depression.

We need an independent inquiry headed up by a judger learned in criminal law. That person can discern who are credible witnesses and who is not. A decision can be made on the balance of probabilities. Porter does not seem to understand unless he is cleared he has no future nor any credibility.  See HERE for example.

THIS is useful. As is THIS

A few things on Australian politics

 

There is a lot happening so here goes.

1. The government has increased job seeker. A few people are not impressed. HERE and HERE. I am one of those. It quite clearly needs to be above the poverty line. It isn't transient income for all either.
2. the aged Care report is out. THIS is a good article on it.  I do not think you could introduce a NDIS solution to Aged Care. the vast majority of people over 85 have dementia. They cannot live at home unlike people with a disability.
3.  The rape allegation against a Cabinet minister in the current government has shown up again of Morrison not knowing what to do but spin. It is the NSW  police that should be informed not the AFP. Morrison has an obligation to set up an inquiry headed by a former judge learned in criminal law. It is untenable a persons with this allegation hanging over them does not have that matter investigated. although it is unlikely though not impossible much will come of the police investigation because the victim is dead.. He should also out himself as Bill Shorten did although it is not hard to figure out who it is!. Talking of Shorten we also have a similar allegation against a male ALP member . This becomes much more problematic. they are not in government. That cannot call on past judges nor have government revenue pay for it. My guess is if the Victorian police investigate and find no case to answer as with Shorten that will be the end of it.\\

postscript:

If Morrison does not announce an independent inquiry i am sure the man will be  named in Parliament.

Friedman V Phillips

 A fascinating but short article on this old argument. Central Banks have abandoned both policies.

Around the Traps 26/2/21

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on australias-recovery-appears-to-be-going-well-but-its-still-very-weird-out-there, the-jobseeker-increase-is-pathetic-and-so-is-the-spin-to-justify-the-paltry-amount
• David Walker on cracking-the-code-how-to-tell-what-news-corp-really-thinks-about-the-price-of-links
• core economics on australia-surrenders-to-monopolists-and-codifies-corporate-oligarchy
• Joshua Gans on facebook-versus-australia-the-government-hands-facebook-a-free-pass
• Ross Garnaut on the-reset-to-lift-us-out-of-the-covid-recession-has-to-be-bold-returning-to-where-we-were-is-nowhere-near-good-enough
• Dennis Muller on is-sky-news-shifting-australian-politics-to-the-right-not-yet-but-there-is-cause-for-alarm
• Ross Gittins on heres-unspeakable-truth-about-fall-in-rates, ross-garnauts-new-plan-to-lift-us-out-of-mediocrity
• renew economy on australias-battery-and-hydrogen-storage-pipeline-jumped-by-massive-20gw-in-2020
• Croaking Cassandra on monetary-policy, not-that-good-really
• Ketan Joshi on australia-was-the-first-casualty-of-the-big-blackout-lie-blaming-wind-power-the-us-could-be-next
• Simon Wilke on the-news-media-bargaining-code-could-backfire-if-small-media-outlets-arent-protected-an-economist-explains
• Hassan Vally on catching-covid-from-surfaces-is-very-unlikely-so-perhaps-we-can-ease-up-on-the-disinfecting
• renew economy on coal-generators-fined-after-failing-to-match-big-batteries-and-putting-grid-at-risk, tidal-wave-of-new-wind-and-solar-will-force-early-coal-plant-closures, neoen-lands-160-million-in-cefc-finance-for-australias-biggest-battery
• Adam Morton on renewable-energy-could-render-five-of-australias-remaining-coal-plants-unviable-by-2025
• Barbara Morton et al on fires-bring-home-climate-driven-urgency-of-rethinking-where-we-live-and-how
• Charles Livingstone on melbourne-finally-has-a-crown-royal-commission-is-this-going-to-stop-crime-and-gambling-harm
• Peter Whiteford and Bruce Bradbury on the-50-boost-to-jobseeker-will-take-australias-payment-from-the-lowest-in-the-oecd-to-the-second-lowest-after-greece
• John Quiggin on facebook-versus-news-advertising-is-the-real-problem
• Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmore on the-texas-deep-freeze-left-the-state-in-crisis-here-are-3-lessons-for-australia
• Michael McGreevey and Fran Baum on against-the-odds-south-australia-is-a-renewable-energy-powerhouse-how-on-earth-did-they-do-it
• Bruce Mountain on texas-was-a-warning-australia-needs-to-rethink-the-design-of-its-electricity-market

Northern America

• Cameron Peters on texas-high-electric-bills-winter-storm-griddy
• Mark Joseph Stern on clarence-thomas-voter-fraud-trump-pennsylvania
• Steve from Brisbane on waving-bloody-shirt
• Geoffrey Skulley on why-was-the-national-polling-environment-so-off-in-2020
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-january-new-home-sales
• Lucas Schaeffer on texas-gerrymandering-freeze-power-outages-chip-roy
• Robert Gordon on robert-j-gordon-thoughts-on-long-run-us-productivity-growth
• Tyler Cowen on texas-utilities-should-have-had-more-dynamic-pricing
• Menzie Chinn on globalization-and-inflation-risks
• Laurence Tribe on justice-thomas-is-out-of-order-on-2020-election

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on why-labour-should-talk-about-productivity

Asia

• Andrew Selth on myanmar-coup-will-test-loyalty-security-forces
• Barkley Rosser on is-china-committing-genocide-in-xinjiang
• Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim on how-china-is-remaking-the-world-in-its-vision
• Syed Fazl E Haider on leave-or-not-leave-question
• Oriana Mastro on what-are-china-s-leaders-saying-about-south-china-sea

Wonk

• Tim Harford on were-living-in-a-golden-age-of-ignorance
• the conversable economist on the-minimum-wage-controversy
• Macromania on a-journey-in-macroeconomic-thinking
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-central-bank-digital-currency-some-macro-financial-implications
• Dominic Dwyer on i-was-the-australian-doctor-on-the-whos-covid-19-mission-to-china-heres-what-we-found-about-the-origins-of-the-coronavirus
• Sam Roggeveen on democracy-vs-autocracy-biden-inflection-point
• Mainly Macro on two-paths-to-controlling-covid-with-vaccinations
• Alex Tabbarok on the-astrazeneca-vaccine-works-well

General

• Mark Pellegrini on can-i-choose-what-vaccine-i-get-what-if-i-have-allergies-or-side-effects-key-covid-vaccine-rollout-questions-answered

Climate

• No Hesitations on amazing-warming-paper
• Peter Sinclair on mike-mann-on-climate-change-and-cold-air-outbreaks
• Desmog on why-united-states-rejoining-paris-climate-accord-matters
• Skeptical Science on climate lessons from the texas frozen power outages
• Dana Bergstrom et al on existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• fake-data-simulation-why-does-it-work-so-well
  
• is-sqrt2-a-normal-number
  
• statisticians-dont-use-statistical-evidence-to-decide-what-statistical-methods-to-use-also-the-way-of-the-physicist
  
• ethics-washing-ethics-bashing
  
• rapid-prepublication-peer-review
  
• what-is-the-relevance-of-bad-science-to-our-understanding-of-good-science
  
• should-we-judge-pundits-based-on-their-demonstrated-willingness-to-learn-from-their-mistakes
  
• men-appear-twice-as-often-as-women-in-news-photos-on-facebook
  
• science-reform-can-get-so-personal
  
• stanford-prison-experiment
  
• multivariate-missing-data-software-update
  
• statschat on bitcoin-and-eftpos

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on principal component analysis
• No Hesitations on bridging-sparse-models-and-factor-models

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• big-conversations
  
• railways-and-culture
  
• Andrew Gelman on luc-sante-on-nick-hornby-and-geoffrey-obrien-on-pop-music

vox wonk

• pandemics-swing-elections-not-much-you-think
  
• geography-innovation-between-1866-and-today
  
• refugees-and-responsibility-sharing
  
• institutions-and-power-structure
  
• subnational-governments-and-making-development-africa
  
• institutions-and-power-structure
  
• why-us-currently-has-best-research-universities-incentives-resources-and-virtuous-circles
  
• jim-crow-saddle
  
• three-changes-regulatory-framework-renewable-energy-help-save-humanity-s-future
  
• pandemic-and-greece-s-debt-day-after
  
• shaping-africa-s-post-covid-recovery-new-ebook
  
• how-much-capital-should-banks-hold
  
• ecb-monetary-policy-communications-and-financial-market-responses
  
• firm-exit-patterns-and-post-covid-cleansing-mechanism
  

coal fired power stations earlier than thought closures?

 renew economy has an article on the possible early closure of coal fired power plants.

Just imagine they are too costly, less flexible and are the reason AEMO dreads black outs. Related to this is how we attempt to get our grid to be flexible enough to cope with climate change as see in THIS article.

I should mention windmills can work quite well in the cold. Steve from Brisbane has photographs to show that. They simply have to be 'winterised'

Added bonus against-the-odds-south-australia-is-a-renewable-energy-powerhouse-how-on-earth-did-they-do-it