Scott Morrison caught out again.

Liberals as slow  learners.
when they originally won office Abbott and hockey tries the cupboard is bare argument. Only problem was PEFO. It showed their argument was cobblers. It seemed  neither understood fully what the charter of Budget Honesty really means, Strange they were ministers when the legislation was brought in.

Now Scott Morrison has been caught out again on PBO costings. Neither his office nor even Morrison himself seem to understand that the PBO can cost any policy as well as Treasury. Trying to 'fiddle' with their costings is stupid.

Introducing the PBO was the best thing Wayne Swan ever did besides ensuring we did not get a recession from the GFC.
Anyone in Parliament has access to it thus Oppostions now have no excuse for poor costings. the ALP are using it very well.

Australia V France

So near yet so far away.

We deserved a draw yet were denied. in this family of referees we were absolutely perplexed by the VAR decision. When the FIFA technical committee decided to give reasons why the decision was correct it got worse. Risdon got the the ball yet it was a trip?
I maybe a tad too cynical but if the incident happened at the other end then I very much doubt any decision to review the decision would have been made!

'Aussie' Bert made one bad decision. Rogic should not have played. He was never going to get the space to do any attacking and his defending is always on the light side. Irvine would have been a better selection and would have let both Jedinek and Local Carlo boy Mooy to less defending and thus more energy in the last 10 minutes.

I also did not understand putting on Juric.

Some might say we did not look like scoring. Well neither did France.
Sainsbury and Mooy were magnificent. But there was not a bad player on the filed.

I am confident we can beat both Denmark and Peru.

I suspect Mooy is buggered after this game so I would pick McClaren up front for his pace and striking ability, Azhari in stead of Kruse, Irvine instead of Mooy.

Go you good things.

Whoopsy,
I should have added Aussie Bert and his crew performed wonders in the defence. We would have leaked a number of goals against France under Ange, not under Aussie Bert.

Around the Traps 15/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on playing-distraction-on-the-prc , no-new-transparency-at-the-orr-reserve-bank , gift-receiving-at-the-reserve-bank , relative-poverty-old-and-young, a-modestly-indebted-advanced-economy, economic-coercion-prc-style
• Mark the Ballot on poll-update
• The Kouk on why-concern-is-mounting-for-australia-s-economic-outlook
• Peter Minard on why-do-brumbies-evoke-such-passion-its-all-down-to-the-high-countrys-cultural-myth-makers
• Melnie Davern et al on rail-access-improves-liveability-but-all-regional-centres-are-not-equal
• Adam McHugh on are-solar-panels-a-middle-class-purchase-this-survey-says-yes
• Andrew Dowse on the-5g-network-threatens-to-overcrowd-the-airwaves-putting-weather-radar-at-risk
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-poor-wage-growth-means-interest-rates-could-be-low-for-a-long-time

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on trade-deficit-rising , guest-contribution-red-and-blue-one-country-or-two
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-increased-yoy-in-may
• Kruggers on debacle-in-quebec Thanks Mark
• Robert Frank on business/would-a-single-payer-system-require-painful-sacrifices-from-doctors Thanks Mark
• the conversable economist on us-intergenerational-mobility
• Noah Smith on a-tight-u-s-job-market-should-deliver-bigger-raises
• economic principals on homer stirs  Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on o-canada Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on unions-did-great-things-for-the-american-working-class
• Perry Bacon on lets-talk-about-identity-and-politics , the-500-page-inspector-generals-report-in-900-words
• David Ritchie on /us-and-west-friends

Europe

• Mainly Macro on amendment-wars-and-corbyn-wars , parliament-has-to-start-directing-the-brexit-negotiations, how-uk-deficit-hysteria-began
• Eric Lonergan on how-europe-works

Asia

• Brad De Long on how-the-west-should-judge-a-rising-china
• Benjamin Habib on us-north-korea-summit-agreement-is-most-revealing-for-what-it-leaves-out
• Daniel Flitton on trump-kim-summit-history-happens
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-kim-summit-negotiating-weakness
• Anthony Bubalo on understanding-what-important
• Danieele Chubb and Andrew Yeo on human-rights-missing-in-trump%E2%80%93kim-summit
• Merridden Varrall on trump-kim-summit-china-smiles
• Morris Jones on taking-stand-north-korean-missile-engine-tests

Wonk

• Amitrajeet Batabayal on rules-based-trade-made-the-world-rich-trumps-policies-may-make-it-poorer
• Tim Harford on why-its-important-to-gather-the-evidence-but-easy-to-forget-it-even-then
• Sandwichman on the-wages-lump-doctrine-still-dogma-after-all-these-years
• stumbling and mumbling on measuring-competition
• Oliver Roeder on after-tuesdays-summit-trump-and-north-korea-will-be-playing-a-whole-new-game
• Promarket on direct-democracy-reduce-regulatory-capture , wages-high-earning-sectors-always-reflect-skills  Thanks Mark
• growth economics on Leisure Thanks Mark
• Macro Musings on a-tale-of-three-nominal-gdp-growth-paths ,optimal-monetary-policy-for-masses
• all about finance on financial-repression-and-bank-lending-evidence-natural-experiment-emerging-market Thanks Mark
• Mike Callaghan on g7-most-honest-summit-ever
• the conversable economist on bangladesh-reaches-middle-income-status, g-7-g7-g20, autonomous-vehicles-heres-one-crystal-ball
• Nick Rowe on the-parable-of-the-fruit-trees

General

• Joseph Franklin on why-predicting-suicide-is-a-difficult-and-complex-challenge
• Variable Variability on peer-review-feedback-importance-assesment
• Roy Hay on fixed-matches-and-prisoners-of-conscience-a-history-of-politics-intruding-on-football

Climate

• arctic sea ice on piomas-june-2018
• Moyhu on may-global-surface-templs-down-0038-from-april
• open mind on climate-deniers-sinking-fast , top-10-tricks-climate-deniers-dont-want-you-to-know-3-will-shock-you
• Real Climate on will-climate-change-bring-benefits-from-reduced-cold-related-mortality-insights-from-the-latest-epidemiological-research
• Bart Verheggen on climate-change-as-a-matter-of-risk-management-requires-different-choices-in-communication
• and Then Theres Physics on low-probability-high-impact-outcomes
• Dave Frame et al on why-methane-should-be-treated-differently-compared-to-long-lived-greenhouse-gases
• Luke Bennetts on ocean-waves-and-lack-of-floating-ice-can-trigger-antarctic-ice-shelves-to-disintegrate
• Steve Rintoul and Stephen Chown on antarctica-has-lost-3-trillion-tonnes-of-ice-in-25-years-time-is-running-out-for-the-frozen-continent
• Cassandras Legacy on climate-change-as-game-of-russian-roulette
• Peter Sinclair on why-antarcticas-melt-is-important

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• wolfram-markdown-also-called-computational-essay
• necessity-difficulty-admitting-failure-research-clinical-practice
• putting-together-list-big-high-profile-goals-proved-far-challenging-people-anticipated-circa-1970
• style-argument-can-effective-intellectual-backwater-fail-big-leagues-maybe-good-thing-different-research-communities
• global-shifts-phenological-synchrony-species-interactions-recent-decades
• can-somebody-please-untangle-one-us-centrists-less-supportive-democracy-compared-political-extremists
• women-want-children-end
• quasi-retracted-study-mediterranean-diet
• one-good-one-bad-response-statistics-diversity-problem
• Marc Bellamare on Copenhagen course lecture 3
• No Hesitations on neural-nets-for-volatility-dynamics
• Kaiser Fung on dead-man-tells-no-tales-but-dead-statistician-had-the-story-down
• statschats on aa-study-causes-drug-headlines

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• freakometrics on discrete or continous modelling, quantile regression

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• meta-policy
• if-it-isnt-creative-you-dont-have-much-of-an-economy
• Brad De Long on richard-baldwin-2016-_the-great-convergence-information-technology-and-the-new-globalization_-reviewed-for-_nature
• Steve on the-best-biographies-of-richard-nixon Thanks Jim Rose
• Three Toed Sloth on books-to-read-while-the-algae-grow-in-your-fur-january-2017-2

vox wonk

• ai-and-paperclip-problem
• how-firms-shape-export-performance
• demographics-and-long-run-growth
• some-ways-introduce-modern-debt-jubilee
• digitalisation-money-and-future-monetary-policy
• gay-glass-ceilings-sexual-orientation-and-workplace-authority-uk
• macroprudential-tools-capital-controls-and-trilemma
• global-debt-and-equilibrium-interest-rates
• cryptocurrencies-are-lousy-investments
• beyond-risk-sharing-and-risk-reduction
• why-employment-rates-us-have-lagged-other-countries

Trump and Kim meet

Well they both have met.
We know for example Trump gets on with the dictator better than the elected leader of Canada, Says a lot really.
We again find out Trump is hopeless with alliances. He knows the costs of everything but the value of nothing.
He again does something which he does not tell South Korea about.

I tend to agree with Benjamin Habib. as Walter Mondale might say wheres the beef? We might have gotten a definition of what denuclearisation means!

added bonus Daniel Flitton

I forgot two things.  Why the 1994 deal failed.

Why would the most stringent inspections succeed in North Korea when they were clearly succeeding in Iran but Trump broke the deal.

The Socceroos and Russia

I must be honest. I am not optimistic about our game with France on Saturday night.

First the good news.
History shows France is a slow starter, If you must play them then the first game is the best.
It also shows south American teams do not play well in Europe.
We also know Denmark have injury problems in their defence and the replacements are slow ( which is why McClaren is still in the squad.

Now for realism.
We have played four games under 'Aussie' Bert. We have only played well once.
both Milligan and Risdon look out of their depth in their respective positions.
Abbout is fast, fit and will ling upfront but lacks touch.
Mooy is not giving any killer passes to Leckie or anyone else.
It appears Milo is on the outer and he was a tower of strength against Honduras. He never lost a tackle or header. He was inspiring.
Rogic and Mooy appear not to be able to play together, They have defensive limitations.

My thoughts.

• Move Rogic to Striker. He does have one hellva strike on him 
• Move Milo to centreback back
• Pick Arzani ahead of Kruse. Kruse has not been the same player since he was badly injured.
• Pray!!!

I always live in hope however

Around the Traps 8/6/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on a-decade-of-real-house-prices, sir-william-and-the-rockstar-economy, another-orr-interview, dont-just-avoid-the-politically-awkward-issues, the-government-consults-on-slashing-productivity-growth, electioneering-1954-style
• Sharon Brennan-Olsen on why-hip-fractures-in-the-elderly-are-often-a-death-sentence
• Tony Walker on australia-needs-to-reset-the-relationship-with-china-and-stay-cool
• Robert McLaughlan on new-zealands-productivity-commission-charts-course-to-low-emission-future
• Ben Phillips and Mathew Gray on the-coalitions-income-tax-cuts-will-help-the-rich-more-but-in-a-decade-everyone-pays-more-anyway
• Ross Gittins on turnbull-changes-tune-for-lower-taxes-election, how-we-could-revive-faith-in-democracy , sorry-scott-its-not-clear-economy-now-has-liftoff
• Nick Gruen onthe-unbearable-thinness-of-modern-politics
• Tomas Fitzgerald on how-changes-to-uk-law-may-provide-more-dual-citizenship-drama
• Giles Parkinson on south-australia-rides-renewables-boom-to-become-electricity-exporter
• Peter Whiteford on is-australias-tax-and-welfare-system-too-progressive Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• The Kouk on australia-s-opponents-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-ignore-this-truth-higher-pay-means-more-people-working, why-concern-is-mounting-for-australia-s-economic-outlook
• Greg Jericho on growth-with-a-grain-of-salt-its-the-same-old-story-as-households-miss-out
• Don Driscoll et al on passing-the-brumby-bill-is-a-backward-step-for-environmental-protection-in-australia
• Chris Salisbury on twenty-years-on-one-nation-is-still-chaotic-controversial-and-influential
• Australian Parliamentary Library on The-Labour-Force-Surve
• Andrew King et al onis-australias-current-drought-caused-by-climate-change-its-complicated

Northern America

• newdeal democrat on may-jobs-report-excellent-news-on-unemployment-underemployment-and-wages
• calculated risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-during-presidential-terms
• David Mislin on why-the-supreme-courts-gay-wedding-cake-ruling-wont-resolve-religious-freedom-issues
• Andrew Prokop on trump-mueller-news-pardon-letter-russia-tweets
• Rebecca Roiphe on can-the-rule-of-law-survive-trump
• the conversable economist on snapshots-of-salubrious-us-labor-market
• Tom Chodor on tariffs-us-rebuffed
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-spygate-fox-twitter
• Joseph Gagnon on realtime-economic-issues-watch/still-no-inflation-puzzle  Thanks Mark
• Jason Furman and Peter Orszag on slower-productivity-and-higher-inequality-are-they-related Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on donald-trumps-trade-policy-violates-every-rule-of-strategy Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on the-fed-s-key-interest-rate-is-getting-close-to-neutral, fed-could-get-more-aggressive Thanks Mark
• Jodi Beggs on an-update-on-ben-bernankes-helicopter Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on conservative-free-speech Thanks Mark
• Anna Stanbury and Larry Summers on productivity-and-pay-link-broken Thanks Markl
• David Wessell onrethinking-the-feds-2-percent-inflation-target

Europe

• Mainly Macro on a-euro-tragedy, idee-fixe
• the conversable economist on sweden-heads-toward-cash-free-economy
• stumbling and mumbling on why-the-mpc-needs-experts
• Cecchetti and Scheonholtz on italeave-mother-of-all-financial-crises Thanks Mark

Asia

• Uri Friedman on trump-and-kim-will-talk-after-allbut-about-what
• Kim Ghatton on saudi-arabia-nationalism-driving-ban-salman
• Adam Ni on despite-strong-words-the-us-has-few-options-left-to-reverse-chinas-gains-in-the-south-china-sea
• Robert E Kelly on north-korea-beyond-all-or-nothing-ultimatum
• Charlie Lyon Jones and Merriden Varrall on name-shame-china-trouble-taiwan
• Brad Setser on how-durable-chinas-rebalancing Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Tim Harford on cheap-innovations-are-often-better-than-magical-ones
• Roger Farmer on taming-the-lion, lend-me-your-ears-friedman-and-the-role-of-financial-policy
• Stephen Grenville on when-is-monetary-policy-neutral
• Tyler Cowen on blockchains-opportunity-commons
• the conversable economist on the-shifting-connections-from-education-to-job-skills , whats-value-of-qaly
• Adam Triggs on the-worlds-economic-crisis-fighting-mechanisms-are-dangerously-inadequate
• Uneasy Money on keynes-and-the-fisher-equation
• Kenneth Rogoff on will-emerging-markets-trigger-global-debt-crisis Thanks Mark
• Promarket on monopoly-looks-like-italian-tobacco-sector-late-19th-century  Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on trade-deals-or-macroeconomic-shocks Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on should-peer-to-peer-lenders-exist-in-theory Thanks Mark
• Nick Gruen on central-banking-for-all-meanwhile-in-the-wider-world

General

• the conversable economist on the-not-so-triumphant-return-of-the-marshmellow-yest
• Frances Woolley on a-gnomic-theory-of-higher-education
• Kate Burridge and Catherine McBride on haitch-or-aitch-how-a-humble-letter-was-held-hostage-by-historical-haughtiness

Climate

• David Appell on when-global-warming-touches-home
• Open Mind on sea-level-rise-denial-by-bullshit
• Moyhu on may-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-down-0.09-from-april
• and Then Theres Physics on the-scicomm-merry-go-round ,science-and-skepticism ,airtime-for-policy-experts
• Peter Sinclair on could-climate-change-create-more-powerful-hurricanes
• David Roberts on climate-change-global-warming-models-risks

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• link-science-hype-not-always
• weakness-bayesian-data-analysis-book-dont-lot-examples-informative-priors
• against-screening
• nooooooooooooooooo-dentists-named-dennis-still-appearing
• peeriodicals-new-system-virtual-journals
• ambiguities-supposed-non-replication-ego-depletion
• comments-limitations-bayesian-leave-one-cross-validation-model-selection
• forking-paths-come-choices-data-processing-also-choices-analysis
• average-predictive-comparisons-else-equal-fallacy
• John Cook on central-limit-theorem-and-runge
• human-life-unlimited-short
• choose-data-visualization-best-serves-audience
• oxycontin-purdue-pharma-sacker-family-fda
• Simply Statistics on trustworthy-data-analysis
• Aki Vahtari on comments-on-limitations-of-bayesian-leave-one-out-cross-validation-for-model-selection
• Xian on maximal-spacing-around-order-statistics

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• suggested-reading-for-june
• the-series-of-unsurprising-results-in-economics-(sure)
• freakometrics on classification from stratch  classification 5/8 classification 7/8
• Marc Bellamare on causality and copenhagen course
• No Hesitations on machines-learning-finance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on stochastically-best-book-read-country
• Brad De Long on talk-four-books-to-help-you-understand-president-donald-trump
• Three toed sloth on books-to-read-while-the-algae-grow-in-your-fur

Vox wonk

• social-media-sentiment-and-public-opinions
• cultural-alignment-can-make-bedfellows-out-autocracy-and-literacy
• wellbeing-inequality-retrospect
• wage-premium-exporting-plants-japan
• effect-population-ageing-pensions
• insurers-asset-managers-and-systemic-risk
• ethnic-networks-and-immigrants-employment-and-human-capital-decisions
• turnaround-portuguese-economy
• concentration-us-labour-markets
• retirement-consumption-puzzle
• universal-childcare-family-background-and-school-readiness
• inflation-forecasting-emerging-market-economies
• role-elites-development-denmark
• imperfect-substitution-and-development-accounting

A few comments on Australian politics

By-elections
We had recently Reach-Tel polls both nationally and on two by-election seats.
A few things to note. polls on by-elections are quite unreliable. As a resident of Bennelong I know this only too well.
We can add to that by asking why the two seat polls are so different to the national poll particularly since both are marginal seats.

Barnaby
I do wish Joyce would leave politics and get a job with Hancock. He is insufferably embarrassing these days. For  such a 'wonderful' retail politician and she being a PR guru they both stuff up every time when they front cameras or give an interview.

One Nation

I talked before about Pauline Hanson. doesn't she look old and haggard these days!  I am afraid implosion will always occur in One Nation as it is essentially a cult built on Hanson. When people are elected and realise she is not very smart ( euphemism) and has a Svengali behind her there is always a dispute. What makes this worse is that she demands loyalty and gives none herself.