Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Keating has a lot to answer for

In the 1987 election Paul Keating went through the opposition's policies and found a large mathematical error.
John Howard was so enraged he grabbed his shadow treasurer by the throat and started to choke him. He had to be pulled off him . Howard obviously thought at the time his  only chance at being Prime minister was gone.  As in many things he was wrong.

Go to 2004 and Peter Costello made some large claims about ALP economic policy. however this blew up in his face when firstly on AM he was given a tutorial on budgetary costings by the ABC reporter and secondly when Treasury showed in their costings Costell o simply had no idea.

Yesterday we had Morrison and Cormann attempting to do a Keating. Again it was embarrassing. They were in my words of yesterday either ignorant or lying through their teeth. Morrison's interview with Leigh Sales could well be the worst I have seen for a long time. He was terrible.
See Gareth Hutchens for how the Minsters calculated their figures!

When the current government won the last election they initially attempted to say the cupboard was bare without realising this is impassible given the Charter of budget honesty. Now the same government thinks the political scene is the same and the advent of the Parliamentary Budget Office has not done anything.

It is a different era now fellas!

As much as I hate to admit tony burke has been one of the most effective ALP politicians both on this and on other issues. He had both Morrison and Cormann for breakfast. I hate to admit because I simply do not like the bloke.

Monday, 23 May 2016

Is this lying or just plain laziness

One of our favourites wrote a column yesterday criticising the ALP's spending.
Quite a few problems.

At this stage we do not know all of the ALP's programs. We do not know for example how much of any spending plan is merely a change in priorities. Yesterday for example the ALP announced instead of a goods rail they would spend money on passenger rail which involve a significant saving!

We do know the ALP is using the Parliamentary Budget Office for costing their programs. Hence we can be confident the costings are as good as can be gotten. The Peroxide Princess criticises the PBO but doesn't give any evidence to back her criticism up at all. If she was consistent then she would criticise the budget to high heaven as she should have little confidence their costings!

The time to get stuck into the ALP  spending any revenue estimates is when it is all announced later.It isn't now when simply no-one knows what the net spending proposals and how they are funded is known.,

Sinkers had a go at Richard Di Natale. Now I have no time for the Greens who are in essence backdoor marxists. It is pretty easy to criticise their policies. However is Sinkers so lazy he didn't know the position here is a part-time one. Why would anyone put up the full-time  minimum wage unless they are goebellising?

It is no wonder given how poor both articles were Sinkers does not allow Free speech over at Catallaxy.

Sunday, 22 May 2016

What if the election was 50:50

What if the election resulted in a 50:50 result in votes so the coalition wins narrowly.

I could see civil war erupting in the coalition when all those 'conservatives ' say we would have won easily under tony Abbott. Never mind the polls saying they would have LOST easily under Abbott.

This would prove problematic as the next half senate and  HOR election would be held in two years time.

Very interesting.


Three quick comments
1)  I am surprised at how many people are surprised that people are viewing Shorten more favorably. when you get 50/50 coverage that in what occurs
2) Turnbull is not looking good for two reasons  The first is  he is no longer the non-politician. He is getting down and dirty. The punters do not like that
3) When gooses like Dutton open their mouth they used to think Turnbull would change that. Now it seems he is no longer different to Abbott. it seems he cannot control them.

Thursday, 19 May 2016

Around the Traps 20/5/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Northern America

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
vox wonk

Wednesday, 18 May 2016

Peter Dutton is a grub

We learn't yesterday the Coalition is very worried about losing the election. They had Dutton as bad cop and Turnbull as good cop.
Dutton made allegations which are wrong even on his own preferred source. He was clearly dogwhistling to get the redneck vote. The ABC also showed his allegations were crap This makes it worse much worse.. Will all those right wing commentators now say they were wrong?

Even sinkers thought the allegations crap. Mind you how refugees can take 'aussie' jobs and be unemployed was beyond him ( Dutton)!

How a Minster can believe in the lump of labour fallacy is disconcerting.

I doubt is this will work for the Coalition. Dutton was altogether too open about his dogwhistling. Turnbull never looks good at being Abbott lite. I also agree with Steve from Brisbane

Shorten is performing way better than I thought he could whilst Turnbull is well below where  I thought he would be.

Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Stop the Presses A Wage breakout

The ABS released it Wage Price Index today. It is rising at 2.1% the LOWEST on record.

Not looking good for future budgets. Of course this is more evidence for Katesy and Sloan for their wages break out. Stagflation Davidson is looking good as each day as well. ( irony button off)

Real wages are falling thus employment is stronger, unemployment is lower and industrial disputation very low as well.

Just as well the ALP exacerbated the labour market de-regulation eh Gerry!

Catallaxy clowns

Some clown why likes to be know as I am Spartacus wrote yesterday about what was in  essense a column  attacking Peter Martin.

Peter wrote a column for Fairfax outlining four reasons why John Symonds was wrong. He didn't talk about Symonds blatant hypocrisy

To quote him he said this ' I won’t rip into Mr. Martin’s analysis beyond saying the words efficient market hypothesis.'

Amazing . I wonder if it was Judy Sloan in drag. No mention of how the RBA memo was wrong either!

This is what Catallaxy has gotten into . Laziness and stupidity.