Thursday, 24 May 2018

Around the Traps 25/5/18

It is time again for Around the Traps

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
  • nuttin
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 23 May 2018

Some TV Shows

Need for some lighted chat.

Some TV shows of late.

Harrow was on ABC TV. I like the show if only for the great Ioan Gruffudd. The overall them was good if a tad too close to Forever which was a superior series despite its nonsensical them.
two main criticisms. Those working at the morgue do not work with uniform police. They work with detectives. The love interest did not work if only because she was unattractive and there was no chemistry.There was good chemistry within the cast though. Having  said that I am looking forward to the second series.

NCIS  My sons taped this for me to watch to get my opinion. It is way past its used by date. The writing is tired and there are few interesting characters. The series has also tried to portray female leads as absolute babes when clearly they are not.The other stinging criticism is the unlimited budgets the department has. Doesn't happen. More so in the public service. The characters are uninteresting as well.

DCI Banks.  My thanks for Nine Gem for showing the start of this great series. ( It is way better when Caroline Catz is in the series).  The wring is good and the characters gel with each other. It is British drama at its best. One question is why Andrea Lowe  only wears jeans!

Endeavour  the ABC is now showing the new season on this series and it is still very good. This is the series of the young Morse. I have been very critical of Morse and John Thaw as Morse. He neither looks intelligent and dresses as bad as a Yank.
Sean Rigby on the other hand understands the character of Morse possibly because of the original series. He appears the ably intelligent detective who is also the 'defender' of females. The cast is a ripper as well. The chemistry simply oozes all over the place.

 Lewis is still showing on 72 and the series went on decline when Chief Inspector ( Jean Vincent) left. The writers and actors simply did not know what to do. The series went from very good to passable. Lewis of course was Morse's offsider in Morse.  Laurence Fox as Hathaway is an almost modern day Morse. Again until the Chief Inspector left the chemistry was very good.

Instinct. this is a new series on Ten. I am undecided on this .I have watched the first episode and decided to watch the next just in case it gets better. He we we a detective in NY ( What Precinct?) teams up  with a Professor who has an interest in abnormal behaviour and this proves valuable in catching murderers. ( He is also ex CIA and a homosexual).
No chemistry in the cast although great to see a lieutenant and not a captain.
 It could be just beginner pains so I shall see if they can get rid of the faults.

Tuesday, 22 May 2018

Peter Ridd. Bolt wrong again

Peter Ridd has become a cause all denialists want to cash in on.

Andrew Bolt is one. ( Funny how his brother, Richard, who has actual experience in climate change has never publicly supported his denialist rantings). He clearly has realised there is plenty of money to be made in being an angry old man.

As per usual Bolt has not done his homework.We saw this yesterday in the case of Liddell power station. He has form on this not least in the various court cases he has lost.
Graham Readfearn outline all his errors.

Monday, 21 May 2018

Liddell Power station again

We have previously examined Liddell power and what AGL wants to do with it HERE.
However it appears few critics actually know what they are talking about.
I know let us try Andrew Bolt who lost a court case because he simply did not do the basic research. Do take note of his interview with Tony Abbott another person not known for attention to detail.
Now compare that with what AGL said some time ago.( 9th December 2017 actually).

There are only two conclusions which could be made.

  1. Neither are aware of the AGL press release which is available on their media centre on their website or
  2. They are both lying through their collective teeth.
Going on history it is undoubtedly the former. After all they do not possess the wherewithal to actually do extremely basic research do they!

Alan Moran cannot help himself.

He lies about renewables being the main reason for energy price rises . Almost anyone with expertise in this area which of course exclude Al, says it is mostly gold plating . See HERE or HERE for example.
He also ignores AGL's plans to replace liddell conveniently.
He writes at Catallaxy where truth is a swear word ( fake news blog?) and no-one will criticise him as they have no idea and because Sinkers hates free speech there.

The ALP has a much better fiscal policy than the Government.

One thing we state with confidence after the budget and then the reply by the Opposition is that the ALP has a much superior fiscal policy than the Government. What we do not know is how much better it is and we will not know until the election is going.

The Government has three major problems.

  1. With nominal GDP growth expected to be at average growth rates or better then fiscal consolidation needs to occur post hast.
  2. The Government's speed limit makes no sense as the Kouk points out. Economic growth can be very healthy when taxation levels are above the speed limits as the Liberal government headed by John Howard showed. This policy also puts a lid on fiscal consolidation. does anyone out there really believe any government can get expenditure down to say 22.9% of GDP to get say a surplus of 1% of GDP. it is currently estimates to be 25.2% of GDP this coming financial year.
  3. The tax cuts out in the never never ( see John Quiggin or Ross Gittins) clearly show the government has no plan to reduce net debt or even have surpluses for a decent period of time.  
The ALP has much greater room to move because of the various measures they have announced to help restore the revenue government gets after it was decimated in the ALP years where the ration got back to levels we have not seen since when Keating was PM.

We will have to wait until the election to see how much the ALP puts the extra revenue into budget consolidation. My gut feeling is people would change their votes if the ALP went for greater fiscal consolidation ( assuming average or better Nominal; GDP growth rates) rather than greater spending and/or tax cuts.

Sunday, 20 May 2018

The Amazing Malaysian election

I was totally surprised by the outcome of the election. Not that Umno lost so many votes given the inherent corruption in the system this was inevitable. And I was certainly not surprised that the Opposition coalition won easily the majority of votes.

What surprised me was the government actually giving in and allowing a change of government.
given the extremely blatant gerrymandering , the changes in the laws and the almost absence of any media coverage of the Opposition I thought they would never give up power. Particularly when the PM at the time looks like he had his hand in the till ( for his wife).

Certainly Singapore would have had a very compliant Judiciary make up some reason to have the voting invalid.
Thus far it is good. Press freedom has abounded and it appears the New government appears determined to carry out their reforms.

I will wait however before making a final call on this. Anwar and Mahathir and by no means clean skins.  An Umno lite government would mean democracy has yet to reach Malaysia.

Thursday, 17 May 2018

Around the Traps 18/5/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk