Been a bit crook and even missed some of the test cricket.
Tony wood of the admirable Grattan Institute makes a number of good points in THIS article.
He neglects the issue of sovereign risk, He also does not discuss whether the private sector should be involved in the electricity industry. given it is an essential industry it is a textbook case of an industry should have NEVER been privatised and has been text book case of a complete and utter failure.
The only reason why the industry is not nationalised is because the States cannot afford it.
Monday, 10 December 2018
Thursday, 6 December 2018
Around the Traps 7/12/18
It is time for Around The Traps.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Croaking Cassandra on thoughts-as-the-immigration-data-disappear, promoting-constructive-vigilance, un-compact-on-migration, i-didnt-move-to-australia-my-bank-came-to-me, abdicating-a-basic-responsibility, dont-legislate-depositor-preference
- Aleesha Rodriguez on happy-birthday-sas-big-battery-and-many-happy-returns-of-your-recyclable-parts
- Katherine Gerber and Luke McNamara on why-australias-anti-vilification-laws-matter
- Samantha Hepburn on adanis-new-mini-version-of-its-mega-mine-still-faces-some-big-hurdles
- Rodger Shanahan on veterans-fight-back-against-marketing-enemy-gates
- Ross Gittins on budget-office-finds-bigger-picture-is-looking-ok
- Michele Grattan on liberals-adopt-new-rule-to-stop-the-revolving-prime-ministership
- Andrew Markus on australians-think-immigration-should-be-cut-well-it-depends-on-how-you-ask
- Greg Jericho on there-is-no-way-we-will-meet-our-paris-targets-and-the-coalition-couldnt-care-less, is-australia-facing-a-lost-decade-in-living-standards
- Darren Palmer on victorian-royal-commission-into-policing-needs-to-take-a-broad-approach-heres-why
- Roger Dargaville et al on making-australia-a-renewable-energy-exporting-superpower
- Mark the Ballot on steady-as-she-goes-coalition-on-46.2%
- Ricardo Ambivalence on aussie-gdp-boom-revised-away
- The Kouk on business-investment-in-recession-with-two-quarters-of-decline , change-of-view-on-monetary-policy, don-t-fall-for-the-spin-scott-morrison-s-budget-surplus-is-no-certainty
- Bruce Mountain and Steven Perry on the-verdict-is-in-renewables-reduce-energy-prices-yes-even-in-south-australia
- Jessica Richards and Keith Parry on australians-love-their-sport-but-investing-in-new-venues-is-another-matter
- Richard Holden on vital-signs-35-extraordinary-years-what-the-float-of-australian-dollar-bought-us
- Kori Schake on america-vs-west
- David Appell on right-wing-vs-left-wing-domestic-terrorism
- the conversable economist on unauthorized-immigrants-to-us-continues-to-decline, excavating-layers-of-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-of-2017, us-not-source-of-chinas-growth
- Macromania on does-floor-system-discourage-bank, working-more-for-less
- Tyler Cowen on trade-war-china
- Kruggers on climate-denial-trump-gop. Thanks Mark
- Joseph Gagnon on feds-policy-implementation-framework Thanks Mark
- FRBSF on review-of-unconventional-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
- Alex Ward on jamal-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-mbs-corker-graham-trump
- Nate Silver on how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did
- Brendan Taylor on us-prevent-china-dominated-asia
- Brad De Long on four-components-of-multiplier-driving-spending
- stumbling and mumbling on chaos-under-ed-miliband
- Krisnadev Calamur and Kathy Gilsanan on republican-senators-white-house-saudi-arabia
- Mathew Yglesias on weekly-standard-neoconservatives-trump-iraq-casualties
- 538 on trump-is-really-popular-in-rural-areas-other-places-not-so-much
- Mainly Macro on experts and elites ,helping-left-behind-its-economic-geography-stupid
- stumbling and mumbling on changing-the-agenda, a-behavioural-economic-case-for-brexit
- Robert Waldmann on i-actually-really-disagree-with-paul-krugman-this-time
- Victor Abrahamwicz on violence-confusion-and-conspiracy-theories-kerch-strait
- Kruggers on brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish Thanks Mark
- Tyler Cowen on why-brexit-is-so-important
- Robert E Kelly on why-denuclearisation-less-important-south-korea
- The Grumpy Economist on summers-on-china, sumner-on-china-trade-in-ideas
- Tyler Cowen on scott-sumner-china
- Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-are-the-drivers-of-tfp-growth-an-empirical-assessment
- Luiz Gomez Romero on lopez-obrador-takes-power-in-mexico-after-an-unstable-transition-and-broken-campaign-promises
- Merriden Varrall on xi-trump-g20-tariff-truce
- Cassandras Legacy on the-6-most-stubborn-fake-news-in-history
- Robert Waldmann on a-micro-founded-model-in-which-trade-causes-higher-productivity-growth
- James Hamilton on measuring-monetary-policy-shocks
- Tim Harford on the-untold-career-value-of-a-little-bit-of-luck
- Understanding Society on is-corruption-social-thing, exercising-governments-will Thanks Mark
- Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on e-pluribus-unum-single-vs-multiple-point-of-entry-resolution Thanks Mark
- Promarket on antitrust-in-a-changing-economy-and-changing-economics Thanks Mark
- Justin Fox on freelance-economy-is-both-old-and-young-big-and-small Thanks Mark
- Barkley Rosser on mourning-death-of-new-world-order
- Nick Rowe on explaining-si-inventories-vs-adding-up-individuals
- Tobias Renkin et al on the pass through of minimum wages into US retail prices Thanks Brad
- David Blair on new-detections-of-gravitational-waves-brings-the-number-to-11-so-far
- Elisa Palazzo on design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water
- Edward Morgan et al on as-they-meet-in-poland-for-the-next-steps-nations-are-struggling-to-agree-on-how-the-ambitions-of-the-paris-agreement-can-be-realised
- and Then Theres Physics on the-plausibility-of-rcp8-5, between-conflation-and-denial
- Moyhu on november-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-down-0.1222C-from-October, november-global-surface-templs-down-0,161C-from-september
- Skeptical Science on SkS_Analogy_16_Arctic_ice_sailboat_keels_wild_weather
- Pep Canadell on carbon-emissions-will-reach-37-billion-tonnes-in-2018-a-record-high
- Giles Parkinson on how-the-tesla-big-battery-became-the-heartbeat-of-australias-main-grid, why-coal-and-not-renewables-is-root-cause-of-surging-australia-power-prices
- David Appell on edward-tellers-1959-warning-about-global-warming, 2018s-co2-increase-is-27-over-2017s
- Open Mind on cooling-down-the-what
- p-value-4-76x10%E2%88%92264
- bayes-statistics-reproducibility-many-serious-problems-statistics-practice-arise-bayesian-inference-not-bayesian-enough-frequentist-evaluation-not-frequentist
- statistical-insights-into-public-opinion-and-politics-my-talk-for-the-columbia-data-science-society-this-wed-9pm
- niall-ferguson-perils-playing-audience
- parable-regarding-changing-standards-presentation-statistical-evidence
- Latour Sokal NYT
- statschat on margin-of-error
- Mayo on first-look-at-n-p-methods-as-severe-tests-water-plant-accident-exhibit-i-from-excursion-3
- december-reading-for-econometricians
- No Hesitations on dual-regression-and=prediction
- Tyler Cowen on fanfare-classical-music-meta-list-favorite-classical-music-year, mostly-returned-books
- japan-s-age-wave-challenges-and-solutions
- inheritance-taxation-and-wealth-effects-labour-supply-heirs
- going-extra-mile-distant-lending-and-credit-cycles
- macroeconomic-benefits-gender-diversity
- challenges-manufacturing-workers-wake-globalisation
- socioeconomic-and-gender-dimensions-inequality-life-expectancies-across-europe
- impact-eu-s-free-movement-people-principle-migration
- drivers-commodity-price-booms-and-busts-long-run
- case-central-fiscal-capacity-emu
Wednesday, 5 December 2018
The First Test Cometh
It really is not summer until the first test of cricket.
Why is the first test at Adelaide which has a just reputation for roads,
Why is it not in Brisbane which is the best cricket wicket in Australia. If you want to boost test cricket then use the best pitches!!
Moreover batsmen from overseas would find batting on the Brisbane pitch quite hard. It hopefully would have a greenish tinge in it, the ball should swing around and because of its wonderful bounce spinners get a go as well.
Let us go back o Adelaide. If it is the dreaded road then viewers will turn off in droves. The only positive vibe I can get is scores in the Sheffield Shield have not been that high. My problem with that is batting is not of a high quality though. Temperatures of 39 degrees C means a pitch that will spin on the last day
Looking at both sides and IF we get a contest between bat and ball then we have proven batsmen of the Indians against the best bowling lineup at test level.We also get a soso bowling lineup against a poor batting lineup. Two things here. Starc has not been the bowler he was of late. We need to see him bowl fast and swing the ball. I am also wary of Starc and Cummins breaking down more so if we bowl first when it is so hot.
If the pitch is a road then the toss will decide the test like in India. The teams that bats first get such a large total the team batting second because they are mentally gone. If India bat second they might draw it if Kholi is on fire and makes a double ton.
If it is a good pitch that is we get a contest between bat and ball the test could be a beauty. We should remember Pakistan beat us merely because Abbas bowled within the corridors of uncertainty alah glen McGrath. Ashwin has never had a good tour here because he bowls too quickly and does not use flight enough.He will spin it on the last day if he is bowling however.As we saw in England the Indian fast bowlers can swing the ball late so if the ball swings look out.
I am not as pessimistic as others for Australia. We are playing in our backyard. The pitches are unlikely to help bowlers unfortunately and we have a great attack.
In the end the series will be determined by which group performs better the Indian bowlers or the Aussie batsmen.
At least Mitchell Marsh is not playing in Adelaide although as my youngest son said he will still get a duck as 12th man!
Go to aftergrogblog.blogs.comcricket for some strong views on the match.
Why is the first test at Adelaide which has a just reputation for roads,
Why is it not in Brisbane which is the best cricket wicket in Australia. If you want to boost test cricket then use the best pitches!!
Moreover batsmen from overseas would find batting on the Brisbane pitch quite hard. It hopefully would have a greenish tinge in it, the ball should swing around and because of its wonderful bounce spinners get a go as well.
Let us go back o Adelaide. If it is the dreaded road then viewers will turn off in droves. The only positive vibe I can get is scores in the Sheffield Shield have not been that high. My problem with that is batting is not of a high quality though. Temperatures of 39 degrees C means a pitch that will spin on the last day
Looking at both sides and IF we get a contest between bat and ball then we have proven batsmen of the Indians against the best bowling lineup at test level.We also get a soso bowling lineup against a poor batting lineup. Two things here. Starc has not been the bowler he was of late. We need to see him bowl fast and swing the ball. I am also wary of Starc and Cummins breaking down more so if we bowl first when it is so hot.
If the pitch is a road then the toss will decide the test like in India. The teams that bats first get such a large total the team batting second because they are mentally gone. If India bat second they might draw it if Kholi is on fire and makes a double ton.
If it is a good pitch that is we get a contest between bat and ball the test could be a beauty. We should remember Pakistan beat us merely because Abbas bowled within the corridors of uncertainty alah glen McGrath. Ashwin has never had a good tour here because he bowls too quickly and does not use flight enough.He will spin it on the last day if he is bowling however.As we saw in England the Indian fast bowlers can swing the ball late so if the ball swings look out.
I am not as pessimistic as others for Australia. We are playing in our backyard. The pitches are unlikely to help bowlers unfortunately and we have a great attack.
In the end the series will be determined by which group performs better the Indian bowlers or the Aussie batsmen.
At least Mitchell Marsh is not playing in Adelaide although as my youngest son said he will still get a duck as 12th man!
Go to aftergrogblog.blogs.comcricket for some strong views on the match.
Tuesday, 4 December 2018
Very Fast Trains in Australia are a pipe dream.
We had yet another announcement yesterday from the NSW government of a VFT essentially for country and regional services.
It aint gonna work.
Why not. Well let me go back a long time when I did work for Cityrail as it was known then.
The XPT can only get to half it highest speed when in use at BEST. Why. Because of the track.
So any sort of very fast train would need brand spanking new tracks that go straight. That means buying up a lot of land for a start.
Next let us go to the customer base. Guess who use the XPT services by far the most? Pensioners who essential pay diddly squat for using the service. They visit their children in the bid smoke and then go back home.
It is highly ironic that a luxury bus service would cost less and get there faster than the XPT.
If you are going to create a newer customer base you would need much better track and varied times as the logical new base are people who live outside Sydney but work there.
This would create further pressures on housing prices in the Western suburbs as they would fall and people buy up in areas where they could catch the VFT.
Another problem is you could not have many stations for the said train to stop at otherwise it simply would not be fast.
In essence the NSW government would be subsiding people who live out of Sydney to work in Sydney as this service would never cover its costs.
Now I have only touched the surface but you can see a lot of problems. This explains why we have had so many announcements on such a project in NSW before anyone has looked at its viability.
It aint gonna work.
Why not. Well let me go back a long time when I did work for Cityrail as it was known then.
The XPT can only get to half it highest speed when in use at BEST. Why. Because of the track.
So any sort of very fast train would need brand spanking new tracks that go straight. That means buying up a lot of land for a start.
Next let us go to the customer base. Guess who use the XPT services by far the most? Pensioners who essential pay diddly squat for using the service. They visit their children in the bid smoke and then go back home.
It is highly ironic that a luxury bus service would cost less and get there faster than the XPT.
If you are going to create a newer customer base you would need much better track and varied times as the logical new base are people who live outside Sydney but work there.
This would create further pressures on housing prices in the Western suburbs as they would fall and people buy up in areas where they could catch the VFT.
Another problem is you could not have many stations for the said train to stop at otherwise it simply would not be fast.
In essence the NSW government would be subsiding people who live out of Sydney to work in Sydney as this service would never cover its costs.
Now I have only touched the surface but you can see a lot of problems. This explains why we have had so many announcements on such a project in NSW before anyone has looked at its viability.
Monday, 3 December 2018
Why is the fiscal policy being shown the wrong way.
We are in debt again to Ross Gittins. He is again on the case of examining fiscal policy on the basis of accrual accounting not cash accounting. This is probably because he is a former charted Accountant.
The PBO has done the legwork for us. They have to as you will only find cash accounting in commonwealth budget documents.
It is entirely misleading.
As the PBO shows us the future is looking good.
so why are officials not giving us the Budget in accrual accounting terms.
My guess is because they think their political masters will think there is no more work to do. Keeping cash accounting enables Treasury to say to Ministers they have to do more.
The PBO has done the legwork for us. They have to as you will only find cash accounting in commonwealth budget documents.
It is entirely misleading.
As the PBO shows us the future is looking good.
so why are officials not giving us the Budget in accrual accounting terms.
My guess is because they think their political masters will think there is no more work to do. Keeping cash accounting enables Treasury to say to Ministers they have to do more.
The Liberals adopt a bad rule.
Michele Grattan tells us of the Liberals essentially adopting ALP policy making almost impossible to topple a Prime Minister.
Why is this bad policy?
The Liberals under Tony Abbott and the ALP under Julia Gillard were heading for political oblivion. not getting rid of either would have been a disaster for either party.
It is stupidity of the highest order to maintain a leader who is heading for a disaster.
Why is this bad policy?
The Liberals under Tony Abbott and the ALP under Julia Gillard were heading for political oblivion. not getting rid of either would have been a disaster for either party.
It is stupidity of the highest order to maintain a leader who is heading for a disaster.
Thursday, 29 November 2018
Around the Traps 30/11/18
It is time again for Around the traps
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Vox wonk
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
- Paulo Strangio on victorian-labors-thumping-win-reveals-how-out-of-step-with-voters-liberals-have-become
- Frank Jotzo on labors-policy-can-smooth-the-energy-transition-but-much-more-will-be-needed-to-tackle-emissions
- Sangeetha PIllai on the-latest-citizenship-stripping-plan-risks-statelessness-indefinite-detention-and-constitutional-challenge
- Croaking Cassandra on thoughts-prompted-by-the-open-letter, services-exports-and-economic-performance, squirming-and-hoping-the-issue-goes-away, implicit-admissions-and-bids-for-resources, known-by-the-company-they-keep,economic-failure-ccp-style, inflation-indexed-bonds-are-they-telling-us-anythingm universities-and-prc-risk
- Mark the Ballot on leave-one-out, betting-market-in-at-new-lows-for-the=coaltion
- The Kouk on here-s-how-the-global-economic-slowdown-will-affect-australia
- Dennis Muller on in-crime-reporting-we-should-ask-better-questions-about-the-relevance-of-religion-and-ethnicity
- Franzika May and Chris Briggs on what-would-a-fair-energy-transition-look-like
- Ross Taylor on israel-embassy-debacle-can-australia-strongarm-indonesia-again
- Brain Feeney on land-makes-the-housing-market-different-so-changing-planning-rules-wont-fix-affordability
- Elli Chapple and Elisabeth Sinnewe on so-whats-a-secretary-to-do-banking-royal-commission-raises-questions-about-whats-in-minutes
- The Tally Room on Victoria 2018-the early vote gap
- Richard Holden on vital-signs-why-now-is-the-right-time-to-clamp-down-on-negative-gearing
- Catherine Ganter on summer-forecast-scorching-heat-and-heightened-bushfire-risk
- Andrew Stewart et al on the-five-not-so-easy-steps-that-would-push-wage-growth-higher
- Ross Gittins on why-more-expressways-dont-fix-traffic-jams
- Umair Irfan on climate-report-2018-national-assessment
- Desmog on dire-national-climate-assessment-trump-white-house-bury
- Stephen Grenville on america-first-and-global-economic-governance
- Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-october-new-home-sales
- Fintan O'Toole on trump-saboteur-in-chief
- Barkley Rosser on janet-yellen-not-tall-enough
- stumbling and mumbling on strategic-vs-parametric-thinking
- Liberty Street on is-the-united-states-relying-on-foreign-investors-to-fund-its-larger-budget-deficit Thanks Mark
- Menzie Chinn on so-tired-of-winning-trade-deficit-edition, guest-contribution-trade-war-is-not-a-reason-to-ease-money
- Mathew Yglesias on trump-wall-street-journal-interview
- Macro Musings on a-new-paper-on-feds-floor-system
- the conversable economist on snapshots-of-falling-us-mobility
- Amelia Thomason-Deveaux on michael-cohen-is-the-33rd-person-mueller-has-charged-and-could-be-among-the-most-important
- Tim Harford on what-the-sydney-opera-house-teaches-us-about-brexit
- Alex Ward on russia-ukraine-ships-kerch-strait-azov-sea-trump-putin
- Mainly Macro on brexit-blues-how-dreams-can-become-nightmares-if-you-make-them-real, on-many-meanings-of-politically-impossible-with-applications-to-brexit
- John Besemeres on russia-ukraine-soggy-response-kerch-aggression
- stumbling and mumbling on against-debate
- Niamattulla Ibrahami and William Maley on hazaras-not-safe
- Lauren Dickey on key-takeaways-taiwan-elections
- Uri Friedman on north-korea-wont-denuclearize-reconciliation-moon-kim
- Elisa Griswold on the-assassination-of-raed-fares-and-the-day-the-syrian-revolution-died
- Isaiah Andrews and Maximilian Kasy on Identification of and correction for publication bias Thanks Brad
- the conversable economist on opening-some-windows-into-recent-research, gender-wage-gaps-around-world,some-alternative-baskets-of-goods-for-measuring-inflation
- Roger Farmer on how-new-keynesian-economics-betrays-keynes Thanks Brad
- Economic Principals on time is god's way Thanks Mark
- Robert Shiller on silent-inflation-can-lead-to-bad-economic-decisions
- Macro Musings on janet-yellen-on-ngdplt
- Meriden Varrall on logic-wayside/g20
- Adam Triggs on does-the-g20-summit-really-make-a-difference-world-leaders-reckon-it-does
- Nick Gruen on citizens-chambers-towards-an-activism-of-selection-by-lot
- Antonio Fatas on global-rebalancing Thanks Mark
- Paulo De Souza on curious-kids-what-are-some-of-the-challenges-to-mars-travel
- Hayden Aarons on https://theconversation.com/why-christians-prefer-classical-music-and-non-believers-like-heavy-metal
- Kieren Mitchell et al on how-a-change-in-climate-wiped-out-the-siberian-unicorn
- Kenneth Rogoff on human-chess-survives-artificial-intelligence Thanks Mark
- David Appell on perfect-fit-between-observations-and-climate-models
- Skeptical Science on discussing climate change on the net
- Open Mind on global-warming-denial-is-depraved
- and Then Theres Physics on 10%-of-gdp
- evolution-pace-popular-movies
- 3-problems-destroy-many-clinical-trials-context-papers-problems-non-inferiority-trials-problems-clinical-trials-general
- economic-predictions-big-data-using-partial-pooling
- $-vs-votes
- multilevel-models-multiple-comparisons-varying-treatment-effects
- werent-much-use-didnt-even-know-peptide
- stephen-wolfram-explains-neural-nets
- james-watson-words
- more-long-run-canadian-economic-data
- Eran Raviv on create-recession-indicator-using-mixture-models
- Freakometrics on bailey and poisson regression on two factors
Vox wonk
- buying-votes-un-security-council
- pockets-risk-european-housing-markets
- using-co-authorship-networks-improve-research-rankings-and-funding-instruments
- correlating-social-mobility-and-economic-outcomes
- new-ebook-brexit-beckons
- how-belt-and-road-initiative-could-reduce-trade-costs
- big-con-reassessing-great-recession-and-its-fix
- role-parenthood-gender-gap-among-top-earners
- new-history-french-banking-crisis-during-great-depression
- global-uncertainty-rising-and-bad-omen-growth
- political-connections-innovation-and-firm-dynamics
- global-banking-local-stress-how-multinational-banks-transmit-shocks
- more-stable-emu-does-not-require-central-fiscal-capacity
- market-liquidity-leverage-and-regulation-ten-years-after-crisis
- per capita-income-consumption-patterns-and-carbon-dioxide-emissions
- state-dependent-effects-monetary-policy
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