Around the Traps 1/7/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Jim Stanford on profits-push-up-prices-too-so-why-is-the-rba-governor-only-talking-about-wages
• Kevin Bonham on two-party-swing-decided-this-election
• renew economy on why-using-a-capacity-mechanism-to-prop-up-coal-and-gas-generators-is-a-really-bad-idea, the-staggering-cost-of-australias-fossil-fuel-energy-crisis, unreliable-and-dirty-cec-urges-storage-target-over-capacity-mechanism, how-offshore-wind-could-influence-aemos-20-year-green-energy-blueprint, unreliable-and-dirty-cec-urges-storage-target-over-capacity-mechanism, bigger-and-better-wind-turbines-to-overcome-climate-caused-wind-droughts, tesla-big-battery-fined-for-failing-to-deliver-promised-capacity-when-coal-plant-tripped, rapid-and-irreversible-aemo-says-energy-crisis-is-accelerating-switch-to-renewables, wind-and-solar-facing-20-per-cent-curtailment-in-high-renewables-grid, coal-may-exit-australias-grid-a-lot-quicker-than-most-people-think
• Stuart Khan on labor-promised-to-fix-australias-big-water-problem-these-6-things-must-top-the-to-do-list
• Peter Martin on australians-are-more-millennial-multilingual-and-less-religious-what-the-census-reveals
• Ross Gittins on business-volunteers-its-staff-to-take-one-for-its-shareholders
• croaking cassandra on questionable-provisions-in-the-new-rb-act, end-of-an-era
• Mark the ballot on the-crossbench
• John Hawkins on 1970s-style-stagflation-now-playing-on-central-bankers-minds
• Wes Mountain on the-2021-australian-census-in-8-charts
• Andrew McIntosh et al on we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix
• Institutional economics on who-should-be-on-the-rba-board

Northern America

• Linda MacClain and Nicole Huberfeld on roe-overturned-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-supreme-court-abortion-decision
• Aalayna Treene on mccarthy-far-right-candidates-house-republicans
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-womens-health-samuel-alito-roe-wade-abortion-marriage-contraception, case-against-the-supreme-court-of-the-united-states, supreme-court-louisiana-racial-gerrymander-ardoin-robinson-congressional-maps, supreme-court-biden-texas-remain-in-mexico-john-roberts
• Chritina Cauterucci on dobbs-abortion-bloody-consequences
• Amelia Thomson-Deveaux et al on heres-what-overturning-roe-means-for-abortion-access-across-the-u-s
• Zack Beauchamp on supreme-court-legitimacy-crisis-abortion-roe, abortion-roe-v-wade-dobbs-polarization-democracy
• America America on liars-for-a-lifetime-redux Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on predicting-next-recession
• Ben Jacobs on cassidy-hutchinson-january-6-hearing-committee
• Tyler Cowen on more-guns-more-crime, what-caused-the-2020-spike-in-murders
• Chen Yeh et al on monopsony in the US labour market thanks Brad
• Graeme Wood on hutchinson-testimony-trump-secret-service-jan-6-hearings
• Liza Batkin on ruling-by-fear-bruen
• John Cassidy on cassidy-hutchinsons-testimony-should-be-the-end-of-donald-trump
• breaking the news on a-lucky-country-on-thin-ice
• Rebecca Leber and Umair Irfan on supreme-court-epa-west-virginia-coal-decline
• Mark Stern on climate-change-epa-supreme-court-revolution
• Nate Silver and Galen Druke on whats-behind-fivethirtyeights-2022-election-forecast-as-told-by-nate-silver
• Dennis Wamstead and Seth Feaster on may-heat-wave-exposes-myth-fossil-fuel-reliability-texas-coal-and-gas-fired-generators

Europe

• Sammy Akil and Alexander Langlois on how-turkey-s-position-ukraine-further-destabilising-syria
• Liz Sly on ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces Thanks Tyler
• Eric Kramer on is-putin-waiting-for-trump
• Stephen Hall on ukraine-and-moldova-gain-eu-candidate-status-but-face-a-long-road-to-full-membership
• Mateo Szlapek-Sewillo on could-nato-cope-without-united-states
• Andrew Marantz on does-hungary-offer-a-glimpse-of-our-authoritarian-future

Asia

• Henry Storey on contingency-plans-south-korea-and-cross-strait-security
• Stania Paspawardhani on years-living-statelessly-refugees-indonesia
• Khang Vu on patiently-waiting-north-korea-s-next-nuclear-test
• noahopinion on indonesia-the-most-amazing-development-story-on-the-earth

Wonk

• Brad De Long on why-20th-century-history-was-so-different
• stay at home macro on its-2022-not-1972 Thanks Brad
• Claire Person on roe-v-wade-overturned-what-abortion-access-and-reproductive-rights-look-like-around-the-world
• Tim Harford on why-does-it-feel-good-to-do-good
• Nick Gruen on an-alt-left
• Peter Wark on we-need-to-brace-for-a-tsunami-of-long-covid-but-were-not-quite-sure-the-best-way-to-treat-it
• the conversable economist on pandemic-macro-stimulus-vs-insurance
• Mainly Macro on the-origins-of-mediamacro-and-how-to-assign-it-to-history
• Bermat Talant on war-fatigue-west
• Doug Irwin on globalization-enabled-nearly-all-countries-grow-richer-recent Thanks Brad
• Mia Martin Hobbs on friday-essay-why-soldiers-commit-war-crimes-and-what-we-can-do-about-it
• noahopinion on i-think-bitcoin-has-room-for-one-more-bubble

General

• Benjamin Mayne on meet-5-remarkably-old-animals-from-a-greenland-shark-to-a-featherless-seafaring-cockatoo

Climate

• Real climate on mmm-k-scale-climate-models
• met office on how-we-make-our-2050-forecasts-and-why-we-do-them
• Savin Chan on research-shows-tropical-cyclones-have-decreased-alongside-human-caused-global-warming-but-dont-celebrate-yet
• Real Climate on overselling-k-scale-hmm
• Simon Nicholas and Souroush Bassirat on more-high-grade-iron-ore-needed-accelerate-steel-decarbonisation

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• theres-a-sucker-born-every-minute-new-yorker-version
  
• bayes-factors-measure-prior-predictive-performance
  
• rats
  
• how-much-should-we-trust-assessments-in-systematic-reviews-lets-look-at-variation-among-reviews
  
• scientific-communication-over-the-wine-dark-sea-to-the-rose-fingered-dawn
  
• published-estimates-of-group-differences-in-multisensory-integration-are-inflated
  
• the-science-bezzle
  
• cross validation

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on the taboo of the exponential , the myth of interpretability and explicability of models
• Menzie Chinn on reminders-logs-chain-weights-confidence-intervals-data-footnotes-data-revisions-and-stereotypes

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-joy-of-measurement
  
• post-neoliberalism
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• logic-behind-australia-s-news-media-bargaining-code
  
• real-time-food-price-inflation-germany
  
• bitcoin-isn-t-much-macro-hedge
  
• social-pressure-football-matches
  
• economics-brexit-new-ebook
  
• bitcoin-isn-t-much-macro-hedge
  
• social-pressure-football-matches
  
• state-ownership-and-corporate-leverage
  
• fiscal-policy-staying-course-troubled-times
  
• crypto-currencies-and-digital-money-taking-stock
  
• green-industrial-revolution-coming
  
• commercial-policies-and-regulations-now-fragment-digital-economy
  
• land-speculation-booms-and-busts-endogenous-phase-transitions
  
• ukraine-s-deepening-population-challenge
  
• measuring-business-openings-and-closures-real-time
  
• sustaining-relationships-under-threat-expropriation
  
• measuring-impact-russian-invasion-firm-default-probabilities
  
• university-education-intelligence-and-disadvantage
  
• damage-air-pollutants-you-won-t-hear-about-your-doctor
  

More on renewables

 Here are a number of related articles on renewables and their future in Australia.

• coal-may-exit-australias-grid-a-lot-quicker-than-most-people-think
  
• wind-and-solar-facing-20-per-cent-curtailment-in-high-renewables-grid
  
• rapid-and-irreversible-aemo-says-energy-crisis-is-accelerating-switch-to-renewables
  
• how-labor-might-transform-abbotts-climate-policy-and-actually-cut-industrial-emissions
  
• unreliable-and-dirty-cec-urges-storage-target-over-capacity-mechanism
  

The economics of Brexit

 A great new e-book on the economics of brexit.

I could never understand how creating trade barriers when there were none was good for a country.

The US Supreme Court is a disgrace

 you might think I am criticising them over roe V wade. you are wrong. The only problem here is the various justices lying to congress on that very decision.

No I am up in arms about THIS. It is a disgrace. Add to that decisions on gun control, voting rights and even Miranda rights in future and do the so called conservative judges realise just how low they are held by the general public?

Of all the institutions in a democracy the highest court in the land is the most important. when people lose respect for that institution it is a vary bad thing for democracy. See Zack Beauchamp.

A wages breakout is boomer fantasy land

 I am in complete agreement with Ross Gittins and to some extent Sally McManus.

Australia is at full employment and real wages are falling! In the 1970s Australia was much more unionised than it is now. It had a centralised wage bargaining system. 

Few people are now in unions and are mostly employed in the public sector. If employees cannot get a real wage rise when we are at full employment and low inflation how in the hell are they going to get a real wage rise when interest rates are rising and inflation is also on the rise?

It is all much ado about nothing.

Around the Traps 27/6/22

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ralph Sims on a-new-farming-proposal-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-involves-a-lot-of-trust-and-a-lot-of-uncertainty
• Katja Ignatieva on whats-a-grid-anyway-making-sense-of-the-complex-beast-that-is-australias-electricity-network
• Peter Breadon on hospital-funding-deal-sets-a-tight-deadline-for-real-reform-and-the-clocks-ticking
• Ross Gittins on economic-times-are-tricky-but-theyre-far-from-dire, why-interest-rates-are-going-up-and-are-not-coming-down
• renew economy on synergy-to-seek-more-than-1gw-of-battery-storage-in-plan-to-replace-coal, watch-out-for-net-zero-induced-technical-faults-they-might-be-contagious, esbs-capacity-market-proposal-could-cost-billions-more-than-the-carbon-price, renewables-relieve-price-pressure-as-aemo-brings-market-back-with-training-wheels, why-the-esbs-capacity-mechanism-will-make-australias-energy-crisis-worse,labor-tips-45m-into-australian-pursuit-of-ultra-low-cost-solar
• James Nassios and James Giesieke on swapping-stamp-duty-for-land-tax-would-push-down-house-prices-but-push-up-apartment-prices-new-modelling-finds
• Rabindra Nepal on should-australian-governments-nationalise-the-electricity-sector-its-not-that-simple
• Anna Malos and Emi Gui on in-an-energy-crisis-every-watt-counts-so-yes-turning-off-your-dishwasher-can-make-a-difference
• Institutional economics on rba-review-of-its-yield-target
• James Dwyer on does-australia-need-interim-submarines-to-tide-it-over-until-nuclear-boats-arrive-a-defence-expert-explains
• Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmoure on why-including-coal-in-a-new-capacity-mechanism-will-make-australias-energy-crisis-worse
• John Quiggin on the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands, now-is-the-perfect-time-to-increase-coal-royalties-to-fund-australias-energy-transition
• Bill Skinner et al on grape-growers-are-adapting-to-climate-shifts-early-and-their-knowledge-can-help-other-farmers
• Michael Gross on 4-ways-to-understand-why-australia-is-so-cold-right-now-despite-global-warming
• croaking cassandra on all-his-boasted-pomp-and-show
• Kevin Bonham on senate-reform-performance-review
• Hugh White on if-growing-us-china-rivalry-leads-to-the-worst-war-ever-what-should-australia-do
• Johanna Bowyer on australias-energy-crisis-can-be-solved-focus-renewables-not-capacity-market-locks-high

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on miscalculating-potential-gdp
• the grumpy economist on economic-freedom-in-alito-draft
• Lindasay Chervinsky on mike-pences-actions-on-jan-6-were-wholly-unremarkable-until-they-saved-the-nation
• noahopinion on so-how-can-we-lower-gas-prices, the-left-nimby-meltdown
• Tyler Cowen on does-economic-literacy-encourage-polarization
• lawyersgunmoney on the-least-subtle-con-man-in-a-party-led-by-donald-trump Thanks Brad
• Zack Beauchamp on january-6-committee-hearing-georgia-poll-election-worker
• Jet Heer on january-6-hearings-gop
• Erin Hurley on political-courage-january-6th-investigation
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-new-york-rifle-pistol-clarence-thomas-second-amendment-guns

Europe

• Chris Bertram on some-thoughts-on-the-french-elections
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-grain-wheat-russia-black-sea-odesa-food-crisis
• Stefan Wolff and Anastasia Bahok on ukraine-war-fears-that-belarus-might-invade-on-russias-side-are-growing
• Mathew Sussex on russias-ukraine-invasion-wont-be-over-soon-and-putin-is-counting-on-the-wests-short-attention-span
• Mainly Macro on why-has-uk-real-wage-growth-been-so-low
• Eric Lonergan on euro-crisis-ii
• Jen Kirby on russian-kaliningrad-europe-ukraine-war-tension

Asia

• Peter Hooton on pacific-labour-mobility-and-existential-threat-climate-change
• Timothy McLaughlin on hong-kong-tiananmen-square-china-censorship

Wonk

• Tim Harford on a-warhol-a-wild-back-story-and-the-price-of-authenticity
• noahopinion on how-are-milton-friedmans-ideas-holding-up
• the conversable economist on biases-from-too-few-choices-and-other-topics-in-behavioral-economics, four-stories-about-technology-and-inequality, the-crypto-trilemma
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-does-monetary-policy-respond-to-temperature-shocks, guest-contribution-a-resilience-case-for-international-trade, advanced-country-headline-inflation-rates-may-2022
• Uneasy Money on axel-leijonhufvud-and-modern-macroeconomics
• Nick Gruen on universal-basic-income-notes-of-an-agnostic

General

• Jamie Roberts on frankenstein-how-mary-shelleys-sci-fi-classic-offers-lessons-for-us-today-about-the-dangers-of-playing-god

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on climate-change-and-social-justice
• Met office on poles-apart-latest-met-office-sea-ice-report-published
• Vanessa Piretta on is-migaloo-dead-as-climate-change-transforms-the-ocean-the-iconic-white-humpback-has-been-missing-for-two-years
• Skeptical Science on what would it take for the USA to  meet its paris commitment
• Tom Sternev on a-minute-to-midnight-reversing-environmental-tipping-points

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-local-bookstore-is-trolling-me
  
• propagation-of-responsibility
  
• dont-believe-the-breaking-news-hype-nyt-science-section-version
  
• imperfectly-bayesian-like-intuitions-reifying-naive-and-dangerous-views-of-human-nature
  
• kaiser-fungs-review-of-dont-trust-your-gut-using-data-to-get-what-you-really-want-in-life-and-a-connection-to-evidence-based-medicine-eats-itself
  
• a-garland-of-retractions-for-the-ohio-state-department-of-chutzpah-cancer-biology-and-genetics
  
• example-of-inappropriate-use-of-causal-language-from-observational-data
  
• Kaiser Fung on book-review-dont-trust-your-gut

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• economics-people-or-facts
  
• decarbonising-travel-room-for-optimism
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• socially-responsible-divestment
  
• why-climate-change-relevant-monetary-policy
  
• searching-optimal-sanctions-russia
  
• role-monetary-policy-green-transition
  
• technology-and-local-state-capacity
  
• banks-and-their-interest-rate-risk-sensitivity
  
• ability-gradient-tax-responsiveness
  
• banks-and-their-interest-rate-risk-sensitivity
  
• short-term-impact-war-economic-activity-ukraine
  
• past-and-present-inflation-are-more-similar-you-think
  
• spending-effects-fiscal-transfers-pandemic
  
• temporary-work-contracts-and-female-labour-market-outcomes
  
• economics-brexit-new-ebook
  

Should we nationalise electricty?

 John Quiggin asks the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands.

I am sympathetic to this argument in theory. Privatising an essential good was madness to me and the evidence is in. It hasn't worked. electricity prices are higher than otherwise would be. It is disappointing that institutions such as the Productivity commission cannot even admit they made a mistake when they champion privatisation.

However in practice you cannot uncook an omelete. No State Government is going to spend money to buy back electricity assets.

On a related topic here John says now-is-the-perfect-time-to-increase-coal-royalties-to-fund-australias-energy-transition