Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Poll Update

The  inimitable Kevin Bonham gives us his latest missive on current polling.

My thoughts are id people had a choice between Abbott or Shorten they would pick Shorten.

Now it is Turnbull and adults are back in charge of the Government they are well contented and are treating the Government like a typical FIRST TERM Government. In other words they should win comfortably.
The only caveat to this is if Turnbull does a Rudd and does not use any of his popularity to announce policy reform.

The announcement of the Harper Report is not good.

Tuesday, 24 November 2015

Viewing the Tax System

The ALP have got themselves into a terrible state.

They won't increase the GST. No siree. It is an unfair tax. It falls mainly on the poor.

A shame they couldn't gain evidence the offsets put in place when it first came in failed.
Of course the ALP's own ETS cam in with offsets for the poor which again succeeded.

Why not sign up to a GET with full compensation?

It is for political reasons. They thin it is a good target politically.

What really irritates me is everyone who says they cannot support the GST because it is not a progressive tax.

The GST is the best indirect tax you can have. End of story.

You do not look at EVERY tax and than accept or discard it because it is progressive or not.

The key to examining progressivity ( which is a good thing because they that have the capacity should pay most of the tax) is the overall tax system.

Overall our system is progressive.

Monday, 23 November 2015

Boots on the ground

There have been a lot of noise lately about putting boots on the ground to defeat ISIS/ISIL.

Talk to a military man and they think boots on the ground is the type of forces which we saw in the illegal invasion of Iraq. I doubt if any nation is going to agree to that.

However before even thinking about putting any boots anywhere you must have some sort of political solution in mind.

This is why the invasion of Iraq was so disastrous. It begat ISIS.

Unless you know exactly how this will occur after ISIS/ISIL militarily defeated then it would be in vain just like the invasion of Iraq proved to be.

Thus far the only people who are beating the 'boots on the ground' drum do not have a clue what may occur after it is over.  It is the same people who gleefully supported the invasion of Iraq.

George Santayana was right.

 Sam Roggeveen

Thursday, 19 November 2015

Around the Traps 20/11/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Umpiring on both Saturday and Sunday but will update.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)
Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Wage Pressures???

The Wage Price Index was released yesterday.
Let me hand it over to the excellent CBA economics team.

"Annual wages growth, as measured by the WPI, is travelling at its slowest pace since the series began in 1998.  It’s no surprise that wages growth has slowed given the increase in spare capacity in the labour market (best captured by the increase in the unemployment rate).  But the decline has been sharper than previous episodes largely because we now have a more flexible labour market in Australia that is more responsive to changes in labour demand.  The large decline in the terms of trade from lower commodity prices has also weighed on wages growth.  If wages had not been so responsive to cooling demand for labour it’s more likely than not that the unemployment rate would have risen more sharply than what we’ve observed.  On that basis there are two positives from the sharp slowdown in wages growth – more people employed and an improvement in international competitiveness. 
Soft wages growth has played its role in generating benign CPI inflation.  In our view, weak wages growth looks set to persist over the next year given the degree of spare capacity in the labour market.  This will be further exacerbated by any additional commodity price weakness.  The RBA holds this view also and it underpins their soft easing bias.  As the central bank duly noted in the November Minutes, “the inflation outlook may afford some scope for further easing of monetary policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”  We don’t expect further rate cuts given there is a growing body of evidence that indicates the necessary rebalancing in the economy is occurring under the umbrella of low interest rates and a lower AUD.  However, it’s clear that tepid price pressures will continue to keep the door ajar for further policy easing and as such the RBA is likely to keep its soft easing bias intact at the December Board meeting."
So there we have it. A flexible labour market is doing its job.
Hang on what about those clowns who said the ALP re-regulated the labour market. The Hendersons. Sloans, Kates and whatever.
Absolute silence. No sign of any of them saying sheepishly we wuz wrong.
Absolute Hypocrites

Here's Greg Jericho

 courtesy of Alan Kohler

Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Test Cricket

Cricket Australia  is doing a bad job is marketing test cricket which of course is the only form of cricket.

The first test was a shambles because the Kiwis were not given a decent preparation.Few peole would have enjoyed the test.

The second test was also a shambles because the pitch was a shocker. No test batsman should get a double century on a test wicket. to have two in a match means there is no contest between bat and ball.

A great test match will have scores of around 250 in all four innings with one century in the match which is a match winning score.

Fast bowlers should dominate the first day and spinners the last.

Monday, 16 November 2015

Penalty Rates again

Ray Markey has a small articles on the myths of penalty rates. Worth a read !