Monday, 5 December 2016

Jean Bapiste Holland

Francois  Hollande announced he would not be a candidate for President in the forthcoming French elections.
He has a very unhappy term as President. The main reason for this was his embrace of supply side economics.

Francesco Saraceno writes about this very well.

There is nothing wrong in boosting the supply side of the economy however it will not boost demand ( unless you are embarking on a significant infrastructure program)for goods and services but will boost efficiency when demand is increasing.  Supply reacts to demand.  Employers do not invest because you try to boost the supply side. ( Neither do they invest merely because taxes are cut )They invest when they are confident about demand over the medium term.

Hollande has now learned this the hard way. A program of austerity and supply side measures was always going to fail and fail it did badly.

Sunday, 4 December 2016

What ever happened to Scott Morrison?

When the Liberal ran into reality and realised Tony Abbott was leading them into political oblivion and they replaced him with Malcolm Turnbull Scott Morrison's profile rose accordingly as well.

He was seen as delivering a key number of votes and he became Treasurer and seen as the heir apparent indeed the only heir apparent.

These days it is completely different. Scott Morrison is not viewed as a competent treasurer. His predecessor Joe Hockey was seen as hapless and incompetent in this role. Morrison is seen in a similar light..

Morrison immediately blamed Hockey and Abbott for the situation he inherited although this was by implication. The Liberals got into this position because they simply did not understand the position they inherited from the previous government.Morrison follows in that tradition.

Moreover he has put himself under a lot of pressure by saying  inaccurately the government has a spending problem. He cannot cut spending to the level needed to bring about a balanced budget because of the impact on the economy however he cannot say this or does not understand this. As Wayne Swan has shown cutting nominal; spending has an affect on the economy. If the economy is not growing substantially you simply cut the speed of the economy. Obama too has shown this!

When you are bombastic and over the top in parliament you look simply ridiculous. The ALP are able to make fun of him at will.

Morrison is a very good example of the Peter Principle in action. Yet no-one , including myself, thought this when he became treasurer.

It also means the Liberals have no-one to call on if they wish to depose Turnbull.

Thursday, 1 December 2016

Around the Traps 2/12/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe 
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Abortion

I have never been in favour of abortion.more so when you see the stats show  that most people in Australia do it because of 'life style' reasons.

doverbeach at the Ordeal of Consciousness has two wonderful articles on it.

go read


Monday, 28 November 2016

Some gratuitous advice to the Democrat party

Okay the US has been won by the loons!

Is there anything to understand from the election?

Well in no order of importance here are some from me.


  • Trump lost badly in the actual number of votes. This has led to him making stupid statement of why that happened. Here we have two things. Trump is vulnerable electorally. Under pressure Trump makes really stupid statements.
  • Clinton essentially lost because her strategy was bad. The team and she MUST take responsibility for this were simply complacent on taking some states and because they thought Trump was unelectable.
  • Trump was a left wing candidate and has a left wing platform. 
  • Trump made promises which can never be delivered. Locking up Clinton, building a wall, slapping a 45% tariff on Chinese goods,  etc. He made these promises because he never thought he would win
  • When the FED starts raising rates as Trump's fiscal policy is enacted Trump will hone in on Yellen. ( the Reagan team did this to Volker when he wanted to get inflation below 4% and the Democrats were mute).
  • At some stage  people will realise trump dudded them. as manufacturing industry cannot get back to 1950 levels, you cannot build a wall, you cannot have a trade war, you cannot renegotiate trade deals.
  • Trump is an old man ( who apparently trades in wives for a newer model). Being President makes you age!
There is plenty more but even here is rich pickings. I do think Bernie Sanders will have a picnic!


Sunday, 27 November 2016

Fidel Castro is dead

Fidel Castro is dead.

All I can say is humanity is much better for that. I would like to say something  profound on the dead barstard's dictator's passing however I cannot.



Thursday, 24 November 2016

Around the Traps 25/11/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk