Around the Traps 22/3/19

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on ultra-low-wage-growth-isnt-accidental-it-is-the-intended-outcome-of-government-policies, higherwages, ,whats-happening-to-the-australian-dairy-industry
• Greg Barton on christchurch-attacks-are-a-stark-warning-of-toxic-political-environment-that-allows-hate-to-flourish
• Michael Woods and Sarah Wise on would-you-like-to-grow-old-at-home-why-were-struggling-to-meet-demand-for-subsidised-home-care
• Ricardian Ambivalence on another-view-on-the-credit-crunch, the-rba-just-gave-notice, a-may-rba-cut-is-still-likely
• Lynn Phillipson and Louise Smith on as-home-care-packages-become-big-business-older-people-are-not-getting-the-personalised-support-they-need
• Michael Douglas on politicians-suing-for-defamation-is-usually-a-bad-idea-heres-why 
• Croaking Cassandra on easy-to-do-business-bad-place-for-business, why-is-the-deputy-prime-minister-going-to-istanbul, agricultural-sector-productivity-growth, rereading-the-un-compact-on-migration
• Melissa Haswell and David Shearman on expanding-gas-mining-threatens-our-climate-water-and-health
• Kristy Campion on right-wing-extremism-has-a-long-history-in-australia
• Renew economy om how-the-tesla-big-battery-kept-the-lights-on-in-south-australia
• Mark Crosby on no-better-than-roulette-how-foreign-exchange-trading-rips-off-mum-and-dad-investors
• Barbara Peacock on jobs-but-not-enough-work-how-power-keeps-workers-anxious-and-wages-low
• Rick Sarre on will-the-new-zealand-gun-law-changes-prevent-future-mass-shootings
• Martin Gurri  on christchurch-enters-nightmare-peculiar-our-times 
• Greg Jericho on house-prices-keep-dropping-and-theres-no-end-in-sight

Northern America

• Gabriel Schoenfeld on trump-supporters-say-the-darndest-things Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on alternatives-to-four-year-college-track-for-everyone-else, wealth-consumption-and-income-patterns-since-1950, the-remarkable-renaissance-is-us-fossil-fuels, reentry-from-out-of-labor-market
• David Leonhardt on trump-trade-deficit Thanks Brad
• the grumpy economist on less-listing
• Sandwichman on no-more-fed-rate-hikes-in-2019
• Brad De Long on this-has-certainly-been-one-crazifying-fed-tightening-cycle

Europe

• Mainly Macro on brexiters-are-stopping-brexit-because-they-need-to-believe-in-the-fantasy-of-global-britain
• Philomena Murray on nine-days-and-counting-what-options-does-the-uk-have-before-the-brexit-deadline
• Simon Lee on theresa-may-requests-short-brexit-extension-how-to-understand-this-reckless-move
• Robert Breunig on the-government-is-right-immigration-helps-us-rather-than-harms-us
• stumbling and mumbling on against-retail-politics

Asia

• Aart Betigeri on india-never-quite-focus
• Gulizar Haciyakupoglu and Wu Shang-Su on china-social-credit-system-black-market-and-inequalities
• Archana Atmakuri  and Eosni Kapur on peace-afghanistan-tumultuous-road-ahead
• Edmond Roy on rahul-gandhi-reluctant-leader-bid-topple-india-modi
• Eugenie Merieau on thailand-military-junta-election-king
• Brad Setser on fall-chinas-current-account-surplus-was-not-replicated-across-asia

Wonk

• growth economics on the deep roots of development
• economic principals on austerity id defunct
• Nick Gtuen on scaling-knowledge-should-our-disciplines-have-mesh-or-tree-like-relation-to-each-other
• Croaking Cassandra on modern-monetary-theory-old-school-fiscal-practice
• The Grumpy Economist on /monopoly-in-history
• Tyler Cowen on a-reverse-austrian-business-cycle-theory
• Tim Harford on is-life-a-bet-or-an-experiment
• stumbling and mumbling on on-class-difference
• coppolla comment on a-fine-example-of-crypto-ignorance
• Tim Harford on is-life-a-bet-or-an-experiment
• Robert Waldmann on tax-the-rich
• Eric Lonergan on reply-to-stephanie-kelton
• Larry Summers on responding to critiques of secular stagnation Thanks Mark
• Peter Dorman on introductory-econ-textbooks-a-different-take-on-the-issues
• institutional economics on unbroken-productivity-and-worker-compensation-in-australia-and-the-united-states
• Jennifer Percival and Rodger Shanahan on who-bears-responsibility-children-isis

General

• Joe Burton on four-lessons-we-must-take-away-from-the-christchurch-terror-attack
• Paul Fritjers on the-guru-recipe
• Chris Allan on extreme-far-right-picknmix-ideologies-and-direct-messaging-online-make-for-deadly-new-combination

Climate

• David Appell on 20th-anniversary-of-hockey-stick
• Moyhu on giss-february-global-up-005-from-february

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• estimating-treatment-effects-on-rates-of-rare-events-using-precursor-data-going-further-with-hierarchical-models
• are-male-doctors-better-for-male-heart-attack-patients-and-female-doctors-better-for-female-heart-attack-patients
• when-and-how-do-politically-extreme-candidates-get-punished-at-the-polls
• maybe-its-time-to-let-the-old-ways-die-or-we-broke-r-hat-so-now-we-have-to-fix-it
• he-asks-me-a-question-and-i-reply-with-a-bunch-of-links
• retire-statistical-significance-the-discussion
• new-golf-putting-data-and-a-new-golf-putting-model
• John Cook on riffing-on-mistakes
• Kaiser Fung on do-wearable-healthcare-devices-work

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• a-world-beyond-p-005
• No Hesitations on neyman-pearson-classification, the-housing-risk-premium-is-huge

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• morals-and-markets-2
• Brad De Long on a-bakers-dozen-of-books-worth-reading

Vox Wonk

• geopolitics-bilateral-trade-agreements
• financial-crisis-and-right-wing-extremism-germany-1931-33
• effect-board-reform-gender-gap-firms
• china-overinvested-coal-power-here-s-why
• central-bank-digital-currencies-and-private-banks
• subjective-wellbeing-focus-median-not-mean
• brexit-delay-will-not-postpone-deglobalisation
• work-past-work-future
• compliance-and-fairness-community-based-taxation
• public-versus-private-digital-money-macroeconomic-irrelevance
• regulating-fintech-ignore-duck-type-or-code
• monetary-policy-times-uncertainty

Failing banks and the Nazis rise to power

That is the title of a  paper by various people.

As the late Mr Spock would say fascinating

Why did China over invest in coalpower?

An interesting article in vox wonk as I call it on the above topic.
Around 50% of coal plants faced financial loss in 2018.  A number of authors try to explain why China got into this position and why it will take time to get out

Brian Fisher has little credibility

I note another 'study' by Brian Fisher on the future energy market. Se more HERE.

The problem fisher has is his assertion of years gone by that renewables would not be competitive with coal fired power by 2030.
Unfortunately for him new solar is now cheaper than coal and wind is almost there/

Fisher  needs to explain why he got this VITAL assumption so badly wrong.
As can be seen in his model his assumptions simply have not been brought up to date at all.

Until his detailed explanation on this any 'research' of his is simply not worth a spit.

Christchurch attack

I was going to write something wise and discerning about the Christchurch attack however Greg Barton beat me to it.

This has origins in the infamous tampa election of 2001.
Demonising asylum seekers is what the Liberal party did back then. They knew the punters were conflating people fleeing Afghanistan where they were being persecuted with several men who had viciously and wantonly raped women in Sydney. they did not care. They knew if they played this absurdity up they were home electorally. They did even lying about 'these people' throwing their children into the sea.

How ironic they went into this again with gusto about asylum seekers/refugees who are criminals being allowed into Australia for treatment. No mention of why there were any asylum seekers at al. No evidence of anyone accused of criminal activity and then we learned they would go to Christmas Island. apparently those already in Australia are okay but those to come are not.

I should end in  saying how similar what Tarrant was saying and how supporters of Isis say. delete white civilisation and insert islamic civilisation.

People always murder when they can rationalise why they are denying the other person's humanity.

Around the Traps 15.3/19

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on in-defence-of-capital-charges-and-higher-public-sector-discount-rates, an-establishment-perspective, powerful-unelected-public-appointees, an unserious organisation, what-is-going-on-with-residence-approvals, kudos, has-monetary-policy-run-its-course, almost-unbelievable, spending-just-as-we-have-for-decades, /i-guess-you-learn-who-your-friends-are
• Ricardian Ambivalence on australias-ngdp-problem, another-look-at-nominal-household-income, the-case-for-may-rate-cut
• Martine Maron et al on to-reduce-fire-risk-and-meet-climate-targets-over-300-scientists-call-for-stronger-land-clearing-laws
• Ross Gittins on economists-lonely-misunderstood-angels-shining-armour
• Christine Schlesinger and Barry Judd on the-summer-bushfires-you-didnt-hear-about-and-the-invasive-species-fuelling-them
• Tom Sear on the-internet-is-now-an-arena-for-conflict-and-were-all-caught-up-in-it
• Andrew Blakkers on australian-model-renewable-energy-transition
• Paul McCardle on the-death-of-baseload-power-in-australia-and-the-rise-of-cycling
• Greg Jericho on since-the-coalition-won-government-in-2013-our-living-standards-have-gone-down
• Mathew Hounsell on which-lines-are-priorities-for-sydney-metro-conversion-hint-its-not-bankstown
• Guy Debelle on climate change and the economy
• Roland Rajah on orthodox-economic-take-climate-change-shocks
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-medevac-fails-to-shift-dial
• Giles Parkinson on wind-solar-farms-to-be-blacked-out-for-up-to-100-days-due-to-grid-upgrade
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-its-one-thing-to-back-down-on-haynes-recommendation-about-mortgage-brokers-its-another-to-offer-nothing-in-its-place

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-job-during-various-presidential-terms, key-measures-show-inflation-about-same-in-february, a-few-comments-on-january-new-home-sales
• Livio De Matteo on hopefully-tomorrow-wont-be-yesterday
• the conversable economist on benjamin-franklin-and-origins-of-daylight-savings-time, us-imposes-tariffs-and-2018-trade-deficit-rises: lessons, sources-of-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions
• Brad Setser on taking-managed-trade-seriously-what-would-deal-tries-close-bilateral-deficit-need-look
• FRBDallas on the neutral rate of interest rate Thanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on the-2020-us-recession Thanks Mark
• Joseph Stigilz on united-states-economy-rising-market-power Thanks Mark 
• Amy Davidson-Sorkin on what-pelosi-meant-impeaching-trump-hes-just-not-worth-it
• the grumpy economist on fed-vs-narrow-banks
• Tyler Cowen on how-much-time-do-criminals-really-serve
• Bradford De Long on three-federal-reserve-hedges-against-recession
• Austen Goolsbee on recession-shutdown-trade-war Thanks Mark
• Jeffrey Sachs on trump-dangerous-absurd-trade-wars Thanks Mark

Europe

• Mainly Macro on is-german-debt-brake-worst-fiscal-rule-the-worst-fiscal-rule-ever, if-you-enjoyed-last-two-years-and-want-more-of-the-same-vote-for-May's-deal, triangulation-or-bipartisanship-does-not-work
• Barkley Rosser on is-russia-becoming-neo-socialist-nep
• Martin Gellermann on fisheries-and-brexit-slippery-affair
• Yasmeen Serhan on failed-brexit-vote-theresa-may-sympathy
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-ecb-has-reached-the-end-of-its-rope-leaving-the-eurozone-with-few-options

Asia

• Monika Ansell et al on indias-grand-experiment-in-corporate-social-responsibility-is-heading-for-trouble
• Suti Bhatnagar and Priya Chacko on india-pakistan-and-the-changing-rules-of-engagement-heres-what-you-need-to-know
• Greg Raymond on military-front-line-thai-election
• Taylor Dibbert on sri-lanka-politics-overthrows-justice
• James Chinn on new-malaysia-four-key-challenges-near-term
• Brad Setser on chinas-still-too-high-savings-makes-china-2025-bigger-global-risk Thanks Mark

Wonk

• John Quiggin on monopoly-too-big-to-ignore, why-is-carbon-pricing-so-hard
• Mohamed A. El Erian on mainstream-economics-must-learn-from-others Thanks Brad
• Larry Summers on the-lefts-embrace-of-modern-monetary-theory-is-a-recipe-for-disaster Thanks Mark
• microeconomic insights on tax-evasion-and-inequality-evidence-from-scandinavia Thanks Mark
• Understanding Society on the-morandi-bridge-collapse-and-regulatory-capture Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on why-inflation-is-good-for-us
• stumbling and mumbling on matches-matter
• Dani Rodrik on bold-evidence-based-economics Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on diffraction-through-debt-the-cash-flow-effect-of-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on a recipe for creating structural change Thanks Mark
• Macromania on sustainable-deficits, the-chicago-booth-survey-on-mmt
• Peter Dorman on whats-new-about-fake-news
• Robert Waldmann on neoliberals-passing-the-baton
• the conversable economist on the-story-of-william-lee-and-his-knitting-machine, greg-mankiw-on-textbooks-and-some-reactions, some-peculiarities-of-labor-markets
• Angus Deaton on crisis-of-capitalism Thanks Mark

General

• Caillan Davenport on guide-to-the-classics-tacitus-annals-and-its-enduring-portrait-of-monarchical-power
• John Cook on average-distance-between-planets
• Tyler Cowen on was-concentrated-big-business-behind-the-nazi-rise 
• Christopher Davies and Christine Bottcher on a-warning-for-wine-lovers-climate-change-is-messing-with-your-favourite-tipples-timing

Climate

• Desmog on global-warming-hiatus-climate-change-myth-refuses-die
• and Then Theres Physics on the-honest-broker, the-plausibility-of-rcp8-5-part-ii
• Skeptical Science on  the temperature evolution after 2016 suggests a hotter future
• Stoat on minor-note-re-ipcc-1990-fig-71c

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• remember-that-paper-we-wrote-the-mythical-swing-voter-about-shifts-in-the-polls-being-explainable-by-differential-nonresponse-mark-palko-beat-us-to-this-idea-by-4-years
• political-polarization-and-gender-gap
• junk-science-legal-system-disaster
• stan-forums-im-just-thirsty-learn-thread-become-fountain-knowledge
• something-i-noticed-about-this-college-admissions-scandal
• the-third-pillar-how-markets-and-the-state-leave-the-community-behind
• one-more-reason-i-hate-letters-of-recommendation
• John Cook on census-bureau-differential-privacy 
• Kaiser Fung on too-much-information-as-bad-as-no-information

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• forecasting-from-regression-with-square-root-dependent-variable
• update-for-new-canadian-macroeconomic-database
• forecasting-after-inverse-hyperbolic-sine=transformation

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• democracy-and-injustice
• economists-utilitarians-and-individuals
• xian on sorcerer-to-the-crown-book-review
• Tyler Cowen on culture-in-nazi-germany
• John West on book-review-partnership-transformed
• Nick Gruen on review-of-empty-planet-the-shock-of-global-population-decline-guest-post-from-simon-molloy

Vox Wonk

• home-internet-access-and-child-development
• doomsday-economics-proof-work-cryptocurrencies
• russia-great-war-mobilisation-grain-and-revolution
• firm-financing-after-global-crisis
• accounting-macro-finance-trends
• bank-networks-and-systemic-risk-great-depression
• household-credit-cycles-and-financial-crises
• monetary-policy-and-wage-rigidity
• money-digital-cash-and-cryptocurrencies-privacy-matters
• monetary-policy-and-wage-rigidity
• revisiting-efficacy-ecb-s-balance-sheet-policies
• what-s-wrong-wto-s-environmental-goods-agreement
• revisiting-efficacy-ecb-s-balance-sheet-policies
• impact-ai-and-information-technologies-worker-stress
• geopolitics-bilateral-trade-agreements
• financial-crisis-and-right-wing-extremism-germany-1931-33
• effect-board-reform-gender-gap-firms

Elections, who to vote for, poll roundup and all that stuff

Well we have a State election coming up soon and then a federal election probably in may so why not write about elections and all that stuff.
How I vote
I never vote on policy although I write about it a lot. My voting philosophy is allow a party two terms and two terms only and then vote them out. You vote for whoever is in opposition no matter how poor they seem to be.
Thus I will be voting Labor in both the State and National elections after voting Liberal in previous elections.
This has two clear advantages. A party hopefully will not be in power for too long.
you do not get wedded to one party.

What to watch out for
You read a lot about 'internal party polling. Most of it is pure codswallop and the Journos know it but publish it anyway because they have nothing else to write about. I have little more to add to THIS when I wrote about it in 2016.  I will add THIS on seat polling.
Right you are forewarned.

Poll update
Here is Kevin Bonham's latest article on this  topic.

My Thoughts

I tend to think the NSW election will be very close. normally the Libs should be cantering but the Stadiums issue has bitten very hard. Also the dead fish has lead to changes in the bush re environment and the Nats is seen as having little credibility on this issue.
The Federal election should be a walkover for the ALP. It is clear those in government are terrified about losing their seats and don't care if others do as long as they do not. Hence the support for a coal fired power station by Queensland Nats. The proposal is absurd but they seem to think it may stave off people voting for one nation.
They do not care if most people see this as more instability. It is no coincidence this came after the release of the latest Newspoll.. I expect more outbreaks like this. Indeed I would think it surprising that the government does not resort to desperate measures