Sunday, 29 March 2020

The Foxification of news is killing people and wil kill more

One of the great tragedies of the polarisation in US and now other countries politics is some people have nno idea of what the truth is.

Fox news pioneered this in the US. someone realised there were a lot of angry originator white men who simply wish to hear what they believe in.
Trump played on this and coined the phrase fake news. his supporters think critical pieces on him are fake news Just cogitate on that for a moment.
Now let us look at what US people think on the coronavirus.. Zack Beauchamp has the story. It gets worse. Those who vote republican thanks Trump is the most trusted source when it comes to the virus.

So when stupid supporters take what they think he is saying can combat the virus they die. Now it depends on how you vote if you are taking the virus seriously .

This is the natural extension if you portray news which is inaccurate, it matters not id this is deliberate or because they are lazy. It is the natural extension if you portray scientists as not understanding or being biased in their presentation of anything.

Given all this it is no wonder Trump is attempting to destroy a devastating ad on his incompetence on this issue.


All in all it is a disgrace and morally disgraceful.

Thursday, 26 March 2020

Around the Traps 27/3/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
  • nuttin
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
  • Freakometrics on reinforcement in learning in  economics and finance
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox wonk

Wednesday, 25 March 2020

We are facing a depression and there will be no sharp recovery

There is too much of the econmy shut down for Australia ( and other countries) not to experience a depression i.e. a drop in output of 10% or more).

Just think over and above the industries shut down.
Who is going to go to the dentist, doctor etc when there is such uncertainty
Who is going to buy a takeaway.
Who is going to get a tradie to do anything unless it is essential like a toilet.

The very large elephant in the room is the highly indebted household sector. This has the potential to blow up the economy.

Once all this is mostly over the recovery will take time.
Supply chain problems have not gone away.
People will attempt to build up their savings to begin with. Again this means no gyms, few coffees, not very many restaurant meals etc.

Be scared, Be very scared.

In terms of politics the budget deficit looks rising to at least 10% of GDP. Yep even Sinclair Davidson might believe that is expansionary.
The nest election will be all about responsible fiscal consolidation which is something Sinclair Davidson knows nothing about.
As Wayne Swan found out if you try austerity too quickly it simply slows the econmy down.


Update:
As Ken Henry says the-unemployment-rate-doesnt-go-back-to-normal-after-a-recession-there-are-long-term-effects,

Tuesday, 24 March 2020

Just don't cover Trump's Press conferences

People always beat me on subjects.
James Fallows does it here.
Trump is again out of his depth. He ignorance on coronavirus simply oozes out.  Faucci always has an embarrassed look and tries unsuccessfully not to contradict what Trump has just said. ( compare that to what occurs here in OZ).

Trump is dangerous and his supports and acolytes will believe the lies he espouses and it will be deadly.
Just don't give the man oxygen to confuse people who do not know better!

Trump is very dangerous because he is so ignorant and quite ironically to the very people who support him.

Monday, 23 March 2020

Measuring mortality rates with Coronavirus

Statschat is a great blog. Deals with statistics as you might expect.
today there is a really interesting post which is called

another-reason-why-we-dont-know-the-covid-19-mortality-rate


Sunday, 22 March 2020

A few musings on the Coronavirus and Australia

WHY is there such a large number of people getting the virus but so few people dying from
 it ? If the worse that occurs here us that a lot of people have to self isolate  for two weeks then I am all for that. .

I tend to think a depression is inevitable. Forget about modelling. Businesses shut down, people losing jobs, more and more people self isolating and do not forget community sport. Think about the bakeries and butchers who will not be selling all those rolls and sausages.
If schools are closed then this is a certainty. Grandparents can no longer look after their grandchildren

Do not ever say Australians are good people. They are as selfish as any and they have no confidence in their political class.  The behaviour I have seen in supermarkets has been nothing short of disgraceful. People using buses to go and raid supermarkets in small country towns is possibly the worst example of this.

Programs to help with depression will need to be high on the agenda. Few people will be able to cope with the inability to meet and socialise with people.

I forget to talk about the budget. The fiscal response is I believe 9.7% of GDP with more on the way. however just remember even if your business gets a revival because of this can you respond if your supply chain is still suspended. The answer is obvious. No!

The other thing is no country town which was decimated by bushfires will now get any boost from tourism. Country Australia is stuffed.

Update:

Can we please have clear messaging. Morrison says schools are not closed and send you kiddies there. Gladys says keep them at home. On this i am with Morrsion who has kids as opposed to Gladys who does not.

Think about it. Grandparents will not be able to look after children so it will have to be parents. It guarantees a depression ( a drop in Output of 10% or more.) and tell me again how many people have died?

Thursday, 19 March 2020

Around the Traps 20/3/20

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk