Tuesday, 19 March 2019

Why did China over invest in coslpower?

An interesting article in vox wonk as I call it on the above topic.
Around 50% of coal plants faced financial loss in 2018.  A number of authors try to explain why China got into this position and why it will take time to get out

Monday, 18 March 2019

Brian Fisher has little credibility

I note another 'study' by Brian Fisher on the future energy market. Se more HERE.

The problem fisher has is his assertion of years gone by that renewables would not be competitive with coal fired power by 2030.
Unfortunately for him new solar is now cheaper than coal and wind is almost there/

Fisher  needs to explain why he got this VITAL assumption so badly wrong.
As can be seen in his model his assumptions simply have not been brought up to date at all.

Until his detailed explanation on this any 'research' of his is simply not worth a spit.

Sunday, 17 March 2019

Christchurch attack

I was going to write something wise and discerning about the Christchurch attack however Greg Barton beat me to it.

This has origins in the infamous tampa election of 2001.
Demonising asylum seekers is what the Liberal party did back then. They knew the punters were conflating people fleeing Afghanistan where they were being persecuted with several men who had viciously and wantonly raped women in Sydney. they did not care. They knew if they played this absurdity up they were home electorally. They did even lying about 'these people' throwing their children into the sea.

How ironic they went into this again with gusto about asylum seekers/refugees who are criminals being allowed into Australia for treatment. No mention of why there were any asylum seekers at al. No evidence of anyone accused of criminal activity and then we learned they would go to Christmas Island. apparently those already in Australia are okay but those to come are not.

I should end in  saying how similar what Tarrant was saying and how supporters of Isis say. delete white civilisation and insert islamic civilisation.

People always murder when they can rationalise why they are denying the other person's humanity.

Thursday, 14 March 2019

Around the Traps 15.3/19

It is time for Around the Traps.

Northern America
Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)
Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 13 March 2019

Elections, who to vote for, poll roundup and all that stuff

Well we have a State election coming up soon and then a federal election probably in may so why not write about elections and all that stuff.
How I vote
I never vote on policy although I write about it a lot. My voting philosophy is allow a party two terms and two terms only and then vote them out. You vote for whoever is in opposition no matter how poor they seem to be.
Thus I will be voting Labor in both the State and National elections after voting Liberal in previous elections.
This has two clear advantages. A party hopefully will not be in power for too long.
you do not get wedded to one party.

What to watch out for
You read a lot about 'internal party polling. Most of it is pure codswallop and the Journos know it but publish it anyway because they have nothing else to write about. I have little more to add to THIS when I wrote about it in 2016.  I will add THIS on seat polling.
Right you are forewarned.

Poll update
Here is Kevin Bonham's latest article on this  topic.

My Thoughts

I tend to think the NSW election will be very close. normally the Libs should be cantering but the Stadiums issue has bitten very hard. Also the dead fish has lead to changes in the bush re environment and the Nats is seen as having little credibility on this issue.
The Federal election should be a walkover for the ALP. It is clear those in government are terrified about losing their seats and don't care if others do as long as they do not. Hence the support for a coal fired power station by Queensland Nats. The proposal is absurd but they seem to think it may stave off people voting for one nation.
They do not care if most people see this as more instability. It is no coincidence this came after the release of the latest Newspoll.. I expect more outbreaks like this. Indeed I would think it surprising that the government does not resort to desperate measures

Tuesday, 12 March 2019

The RBA on climate change

Guy Debelle who is deputy governor of the RBA gave a very thoughtful speech last night entitled Climate change and the economy

Read and enjoy

Monday, 11 March 2019

The death of baseload power

courtesy of Renew Economy an article by Paul McArdle on the-death-of-baseload-power-in-australia-and-the-rise-of-cycling.

Beware it is long and fairly technical but very interesting and informative.

As an added bonus here is a dated article by John Quiggin on the-myth-of-baseload-power-demand