what should the democrats ddo?

 Some people nominated for cabinet positions are quite obviously not qualified for their jobs. 

The question for democrats is should they oppose them in the senate hearings because that is their proper job or should they let them have their jobs and let their incompetence shine like a bright light. incompetence and chaos were plentiful in the previous Trump administration and there is no reason to expect this to change this time. His policies are incoherent and the main qualification to get a job is how the person present on TV is a recipe for disaster.

The question for democrat senators is do they do their job for the country or do it for their party!

We shall see

A bit of this and a bit of that

 Murray-Darling stuffed despite billions

Trump could cut spending without congress

Hunter Biden was unfairly prosecuted

Chinese carbon emissions. Is there a falling trend?

Memories of covid in the USA are wrong!

Debunking myths in the USA

Coal fired power is NOT reliable

 I am amused by the fact the climate denialists are shouting from the rooftops that coal is reliable.

Just last week we in NSW were worried about possible blackouts because two units for coal fired power stations were being serviced ( the servicing is more frequent these days because they break down more often). and two units actually broke down.

This is not a new phenomenon. A very long time ago I had to write an essay on electricity pricing in NSW.

One of the more interesting things I found out at the time  ( around 1982) was the fact NSW had a lot more power stations than it needed. We only found out a lot later the reason was that units were breaking down in hot weather so more stations meant no blackouts despite most nights having way too much power and thus we had very very low offpeak prices.

Thus we can state units in coal fired power stations break down frequently and do so more often as days get hotter.

When you add the 8 years it takes to build the damn things and then the price that would be needed it is easy to see why the private sector is not interested in coal fired power.

Whoopsy

I forgot to mention that coal fired power like nuclear power is baseload power that is it is on 24 hours a day. At present it is only profitable at night. It gets blitzed during the day by solar power. When energy is done by private enterprise they want dispatchable power not baseload power.

Around the Traps 29/11/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Aarti Betigeri on summer-could-australia-vs-india-take-cricket-s-greatest-rivalry-out-anglosphere
• Ross Gittins on playing-major-role-in-saving-planet-could-make-us-money
• Sarah Joseph on banning-under-16s-from-social-media-may-be-unconstitutional-and-ripe-for-high-court-challenge
• Mark the Ballot on update-betting-market-and-opinion-polls

OZ Climate

• bad-for-consumers-regulator-pings-generators-and-batteries-for-multiple-rebids-in-high-priced-events
  
• massive-70-gw-wind-and-solar-project-that-straddles-nullarbor-given-environmental-criteria
  
• not-fit-for-purpose-labor-kicks-off-rewrite-of-electricity-market-rules-to-keep-pace-with-renewables
  
• nsw-gives-planning-approval-for-giant-2-gwh-battery-at-site-of-states-likely-last-coal-generator
  
• south-australia-wants-to-bring-back-mothballed-diesel-plants-due-to-lack-of-demand-side-options
  
• extended-outages-of-always-on-baseload-power-leaves-coal-states-vulnerable-to-heatwave
  
• australias-newest-and-biggest-battery-charged-with-surprise-role-in-keeping-lights-on-in-nsw-heatwave
  
• new-tender-opens-for-another-6-gw-of-wind-and-solar-as-record-year-puts-2030-renewables-target-within-reach
  
• wind-solar-and-battery-pipeline-albanese-better-not-stuff-up-bowens-excellent-tenure
• in-the-end-the-only-blackouts-were-in-the-media-headlines-but-there-has-to-be-a-better-way-to-do-this
  
• Anna Skarbek and Mathew Bennetti on australias-electricity-market-is-getting-a-big-makeover-and-these-3-changes-will-make-it-future-proof
• Peter Hannan on australian-households-energy-bills-could-be-20-lower-in-10-years-report-finds
• Andrew King on this-summer-will-likely-be-wetter-and-warmer-for-most-australians-bureau-forecast-says
• Adam Morton and Petra Stock on six-things-we-learned-about-the-australian-governments-climate-policies
• Amidine Denis-Ryan and Kevin Morrison on  gorgon-ccs-underperformance-hits-new-low-2023-24

Northern America

• Clifford Young et al on link-between-media-consumption-and-public-opinion thanks Brad
• one first on things-fall-apart Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-can-musk-find-2-trillion-in-spending-cuts-for-trump
• Dylan Mathews on musk-trump-balance-budget-doge
• institutional economics on what-the-us-dollar-tells-us-about-the-incoming-administration
• Brad De Long on note-to-self-coin-money-and-regulate-the-value-thereof
• Liz Zhou on trump-says-he-wants-to-get-rid-of-woke-generals-he-can
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on jack-smith-trump-trial-january-6-department-of-justice
• the conversable economist on the-middle-income-trap , thanksgiving-origins-3
• noahopinion on at-least-five-interesting-things-cda , the-alternate-reality-of-rfk-and-the-antivaxers , the-best-case-scenario-for-trumps-second-term
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-tariffs-inflation-economy-china-global-trade , fbi-background-checks-trump-gaetz-hegseth-nominees-senate-congress-transition
• Joel Eissenberg on the-trump-tariffs-wont-actually-happen

Europe

• Brad De Long on the-unmaking-of-a-modern-economy-brexit-austerity-and-the-great-retraction
• Sam Roggeveen on russia-escalates-strikes-ukraine-new-missile-warns-west
• stumbling and mumbling on on-ideological-blindspots , on-legibility
• Joshua Yaffa on what-can-stop-the-cycle-of-escalation-in-ukraine
• Menzie Chinn on the-ruble-under-pressure
• Tyler Cowen on germany-chart-of-the-day

Asia

• Genevieve Donnellan-May on china-s-food-safety-crises-some-oils-just-shouldn-t-mix
• Marika Sosnowski on ceasefires-are-not-a-panacea-here-are-4-reasons-to-be-concerned-about-the-israel-hezbollah-deal
• Adnan Aamir on pakistan-china-s-diplomatic-relations-reach-low-ebb
• Gordon Weiss on sri-lanka-votes-change
• Mark O'Connell on israels-revenge-an-interview-with-rashid-khalidi

Wonk

• weird at my school on forgotten-creeds-from-the-summer Thanks Nick
• Arin's substack on real-wage-growth-the-post-pandemic-labour-market-and-beyond Thanks Brad
• Mark Beeson on trump-s-victory-triumph-authoritarianism-too
• Robert Waldmann on some-thoughts-on-psychology-of-heuristics-and-biases
• Chris Ogden on trump-joins-putin-xi-and-modi-as-the-four-horsemen-of-global-authoritarianism
• Victor Peskin on icc-arrest-warrants-for-israels-netanyahu-and-hamas-leader-doesnt-mean-those-accused-will-face-trial-anytime-soon
• Mainly Macro on should-governments-protect-citizens-from-external-shocks-to-their-living-standards
• Daniel Flitton on shifting-mindset-global-challenges
• Brad De Long on twelve-slides-the-history-of-economic-growth
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-2024-win-global-anti-incumbent-system
• Arash Azizi on israel-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gallant-icc
• Lisa Toohey on whats-a-trade-war

General

• Aaron Cavosie on a-4-45-billion-year-old-crystal-from-mars-reveals-the-planet-had-water-from-the-beginning
• Tim Harford on how-to-give-a-good-speech

Climate

• Jacqueline Peel on from-a-us-300-billion-climate-finance-deal-to-global-carbon-trading-heres-what-was-and-wasnt-achieved-at-the-cop29-climate-talks
• David Appell on october-and-annual-update-for-berkeley
• open mind on greenhouse-forces
• Stochastic trend on chinese-carbon-emissions-in-2023-vs-2024
• Kate Dooley on after-nearly-10-years-of-debate-cop29s-carbon-trading-deal-is-seriously-flawed
• climate citizen on guest-post-after-nearly-10-years-of-debate
• Amelia Leavesley on a-tax-on-new-plastic-would-slash-waste-if-built-into-the-global-treaty-on-plastics
• Katherine Doehring et al on how-sharing-stories-about-river-restoration-can-inspire-others-to-take-care-of-waterways
• Melanie Pill and Georgia Hammersley on climate-cop-out-weak-finance-goal-fossil-fuel-stalemate-fail-most-vulnerable
• Joseph Webster and Frank Willey on it-time-change-clocks-harness-power-solar

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• why-do-medical-tests-always-have-error-rates
  
• those-correction-notices-in-full-yes-its-possible-to-directly-admit-and-learn-from-error
  
• keith-orourkes-final-published-paper-statistics-as-a-social-activity-attitudes-toward-amalgamating-evidence
  
• i-wonder-just-what-it-takes-to-get-people-to-conclude-that-a-research-seam-has-been-mined-to-the-point-of-exhaustion
  
• practical-issues-with-calibration-for-every-group-and-every-decision-problem
  
• physics-is-like-brazil-statistics-is-like-chile
  
• why-does-this-guy-have-2-gmail-accounts
  
• thats-what-happens-when-you-try-to-run-the-world-while-excluding-99-8-of-the-population
  
• Robert Waldmann on allais-paradox-ii-do-two-wrongs-make-a-right , a-complete-set-of-subjective-probabilities-bayes-formula-overconfidence-and-over-reaction-to-new-information
• Kaiser Fang on the-election-could-have-been-called-much-earlier , contaminated-science

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on favorite-fiction-of-2024

vox wonk

• birth-timing-and-spacing-implications-parental-leave-dynamics-and-child-penalties
  
• global-uncertainty-reduces-innovation-renewable-energy
  
• generative-ai-replacement-human-coders-large-scale-complex-text-analysis-new-evidence
  
• civil-society-beyond-markets-and-states-tracking-100-years-economic-research
  
• anonymity-and-identity-online
  
• visible-hand-state-industrial-policies-emerging-markets
  
• green-dilemma-monetary-policy
  
• rise-services-exports-new-pathways-growth
  
• monetary-policy-response-tariff-shocks
  
• stronger-patent-protection-and-its-effect-innovation-and-market-power
  
• special-economic-zones-and-slow-path-regional-convergence
  

social Media

 I agree on banning social media for those under 16.

I have two suggestions on how to do it.

1. Leave it up to the companies afterall it is their platforms
2. let parents decide by giving them an app to say yea or nay to what their children can look at

Hmm a heatwave puts pressure on the Grid

 In NSW we are officially in a heatwave. It is expected to get to 38c where I am today.

Why is the system under pressure you ask. Well the darned coalfired power stations actually. Not only do units break down with monotonous regularity they need to be serviced more often!

Although you won't be surprised to hear sky after dark blaming renewables!

I even heard someone on radio this morning blaming the government for closing down Liddell. two problems here. It occurred on the previous government's watch and it was closed by its owner AGL not the government!

Just for a bonus not-fit-for-purpose-labor-kicks-off-rewrite-of-electricity-market-rules-to-keep-pace-with-renewables

now that was a defeat!

 India whupped us in the first test on a pitch that should have favoured us.

what to learn?

Australia

• Our top order crumbled again. Alas this is becoming a consistent pattern.
• Our fast bowlers are no longer fast. No-one looked to get beyond 140k. They are close to ending their careers. Will they make the ashes? Older legs get tired earlier than young legs.
• We were lost in the headspace after the second day

India

• They won easily with some of their best players missing
• Bumrah was a good captain as well as a great bowler
• Rana bowls between 135 and 145k. I don't get it.
• Sundar is no Ashwin

Replacing out of form batsmen is hard when you look at Shield results. I always thought the Indian batsmen had techniques more suited to australia than India and it showed.

This could be a ripper of a series

okay we have an aging team both in batting and bowling. Smith is in clear decline perhaps Manus is too. Both have suspect techniques that the eyes have overcome however there is no-one in shield cricket challenging any spots.

We do have some young fast bowlers we may need to try out.  Match is not an allrounder and money for jam in australia as Niti showed.

I am thinking the Indian attack needs to Bumrah to work well if they are to win. this will not occur in evert test. On the other hand their batting will only get stronger. Their major weakness in recent times is to pick bowlers who can bat and leave out specialist batsman. If they do that against us they will lose.

If we do not win the saynighter and Brisbane then we shall lose the series.