Around the Traps 7/8/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rodney Tiffen on james-murdochs-resignation-is-the-result-of-news-corps-increasing-shift-to-the-right-not-just-on-climate
• Anne Twomey on explainer-what-is-a-state-of-disaster-and-what-powers-does-it-confer
• Adrian Esterman on state-of-disaster-called-as-melbourne-moves-to-nightly-curfew-and-stage-4-restrictions
• Ross Gittins on weak-inflation-tells-us-its-demand-side-us-its-the demand-side-stupid, virus-reminder-governments-need-to-be-better-not-smaller, people-on-dole-dont-want-job-dont-believe-it
• renew economy on australias-two-renewable-export-mega-projects-say-there-is-room-for-both-and-more, rooftop-solars-stunning-surge-to-new-records-as-australia-installs-reach-2-5-million, global-gold-miner-sets-sights-on-realistic-99-renewables-share-on-mining-projects, cefc-wants-green-hydrogen-to-become-the-new-large-scale-solar-success-story, hung-out-to-dry-the-dark-side-of-big-solar
• Greg Jericho on unlike-previous-recessions-australia-did-not-enter-this-one-with-a-strong-economy
• Ian Hickie on as-lockdown-fatigue-sets-in-the-toll-on-mental-health-will-require-an-urgent-response
• Institutional Economics on the-rbas-yield-curve-control-trap
• Thom Dixon on defending-australia-high-tech-future
• Nick Gruen on the-road-to-political-reform-based-on-sortition-guest-post-by-john-burnheim
• Croaking Cassandra on perhaps-they-should-start-a-bank
• Mark Melaton on cutbacks-may-keep-virgin-australia-alive-for-now-but-its-long-term-prospects-are-bleak
• Erin Smith on two-weeks-of-mandatory-masks-but-a-record-725-new-cases-why-are-melbournes-covid-19-numbers-so-stubbornly-high
• Brendan Coates and Jonathon Nolan on early-access-to-super-doesnt-justify-higher-compulsory-contributions
• Stephen Paget on force-combat-climate-change

Northern America

• Brad De Long on steve-m-_the-post-trump-gop-is-likely-to-be-even-worse
• New Deal Democrat on q2-gdp-does-not-bode-well-for-early-2021
• David Smith on trump-cant-delay-the-election-but-he-can-try-to-delegitimise-it 
• Aaron Rupar on trump-axios-interview-jonathan-swan
• Barkley Rosser on how-to-measure-quarterly-changes-in-gdp 
• Menzie Chinn on the-gdp-collapse-it-is-what-it-is
• John Cassidy on trumps-attempt-to-obscure-the-reality-of-the-pandemic-is-getting-comical
• David Barker and Sam Fulwood on young-black-americans-not-sold-on-biden-the-democrats-or-voting

Europe

• James Empty blog on what-if, could-r-still-be-less-than-1
• stumbling and mumbling on the-economics-politics-divide, truth-utility-education, government-for-spiv-and-rentier

Asia

• Joshue Espena and Chelsea Bomping on brunei-asean-and-south-china-sea
• Alysssa Leng on microsofts-takeover-would-be-a-win-for-tiktok-and-tech-giants-not-users
• Rodger Shanahan on it-s-always-about-oil-middle-east
• Sarah Fregonese on the-port-of-beirut-vital-historic-centre-of-a-complex-city
• Tony Walker on beirut-explosion-yet-another-heartbreak-for-a-country-already-on-the-brink
• Michael Beltran on philippines-political-dance-around-constitutional-change

Wonk

• Barkley Rosser on is-latest-apparent-economist-suicide-A -sign
• Tim Harford on will-the-mental-scars-of-covid-fade-or-endure
• The Irish Economy on wellbeing-not-gdp-must-be-our-measure-of-progress
• the conversable economist on the-pandemic-effect-on-world-trade-some-early-data
• Paul Haskell-Dowland and Brianna O'Shea on microsofts-takeover-would-be-a-win-for-tiktok-and-tech-giants-not-users
• Lydia Khalil on under-influence-peddling-conspiracy-pandemic, the-2020-presidential-and-senate-elections-nowcast-reverting-towards-the-mean
• Robert Waldmann on the-cold-warriors
• Nick Gruen on the-competition-delusion-the-presentation
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-impact-of-the-pandemic-on-developing-countries
• Gareth Evans and Chung-In Moon on remembering-hiroshima-and-nagasaki
• Sandwichman on from-the-archives-the-source-and-remedy-of-the-national-difficulties
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-shorter-meetings-but-longer-days-how-covid-19-has-changed-the-way-we-work
• florian Scheuer and Joel Slemrod on Taxation and the Superrich  Thanks Peter Whiteford

General

• Carly Osborn on p-g-wodehouse-in-a-pandemic-wit-and-perfect-prose-to-restore-the-soul
• the conversable economist on i-surpass-keynes-33-years-plus-one
• Gabriel da Silva on what-is-ammonium-nitrate-the-chemical-that-exploded-in-beirut
• Robert Phiddian on has-donald-trump-broken-satire

Climate

• David Appell on climate-change-bites-back
• Lauren Vargo on how-climate-change-made-the-melting-of-new-zealands-glaciers-10-times-more-likely
• Moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-july-2020-surface-temperature-down-from -august
• Allan Brent on climate-explained-could-electric-car-batteries-feed-power-back-into-the-grid
• Skeptical Science on we have been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• ra-fisher-and-the-science-of-hatred
• the-typical-set-and-its-relevance-to-bayesian-computation
• kinda-like-reeses-pieces-if-you-dont-like-chocolate-and-you-dont-like-peanut-butter
• which-experts-should-we-trust
• kafka-comes-to-the-visa-office
• somethings-do-not-seem-to-spread-easily-the-role-of-simulation-in-statistical-practice-and-perhaps-theory
• updates-of-bad-forecasts-lets-follow-them-up-and-see-what-happened
• varimax-sure-its-always-worked-but-now-theres-maths
• dont-say-your-data-reveal-quantum-nature-of-human-judgments-be-precise-and-say-your-data-are-consistent-with-a-quantum-inspired-model-of-survey-responses-yes-then-your-paper-might-not-a
• staschat on some-numbers-on-testing, briefly
• Kaiser Fung on were-told-almost-nothing-about-the-moderna-vaccine-trial, if-you-check-your-pulse-daily-one-day-it-will-flatline

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on 2020-arnold-zellner-award-to-wayne-gao

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• assetization-economists-and-others
• Robert Whitol on book-review-superpower-showdown
• Henry Farrell on jacob-hacker-and-paul-pierson-let-them-eat-tweets

Vox Wonk

• proximate-determinants-economic-development-since-1913
• growth-sustainability-and-measurement-global-gross-product
• effectiveness-lockdowns-learning-swedish-experience
• organized-crime-s-infiltration-legal-economy
• burden-proof-measuring-and-understanding-crime
• patience-risk-taking-and-international-differences-student-achievement
• integration-and-reforms
• population-ageing-reduces-government-spending-multiplier
• financial-market-reactions-monetary-policy-signals
• how-prevent-looming-sovereign-debt-crisis
• global-sanctions-data-base
• how-households-inflation-expectations-matter
• time-inconsistency-recent-monetary-policy
• risks-high-public-debt-despite-low-interest-rate-environment
• impact-gdpr-data-flows-and-national-security
• covid-19-and-eu-labour-market-corporate-health-matters
• economic-cost-uk-school-closures
• interest-rates-market-power-and-financial-stability
• going-bankrupt-china
• mass-gatherings-contributed-early-covid-19-mortality

The Axios interview with Trump

HERE it is.

Our own Johnathon Swan ( Swanny??) interviews Trump really well.
He is not deferential but respectful. When Trump insists on his defence he asks questions. although aggressive he is not behaving badly.

In the end the interview is a train wreck for Trump.
He shows in great detail his narcissism, his lack od intelligence, his lack of empathy, his lack of self awareness etc.

In the end Trump appears delusional in his attempt to spin every problem he has to overcome.

Yes Swanny is the son of Norman Swan and he certainly learnt the lessons from his first interview with the man.

I should have said A President can be briefed until the cows come home if he does not understand the brief it will show and it showed up in spades in this interview.

Some Shows I am watching

Too many serious issues so today I digress.

My wife and I  have been watching Anne with an E. It is a Canadian series about Anne of Green Gables.
It is on Netflix and I have watched the first two seasons.

It digresses for the books quit a bit sometimes and most of the time this addition does not work.
Season one is great but Season two is soso. Political correctness is part of the problem but not all of .
it.
Anne of Green Gables is a feel good series and is something we need in these dire days.

I am hoping season three comes through.

The series uses the magnificent canadian landscape very well it has to be said.

I admit to being wrong. I have previously said NCIS  was over-rated  or words to that effect.
In my defence it was mostly about the more newish seasons.
It took two seasons for this season to really hit its mojo.

Once Season three starts the chemistry is there for all to see. It is very much assisted by Michael Weatherly ( acting like a modern day Doug McClure) and Cote De Pablo.

Although mostly serious the humour, mostly advance by Weatherly, is done well and minimal so not upsetting the overall plot. There are a number of recurring characters and they work in well as well. 

The only problem is Gibbs being married not once but four times. Simply not believable. you can live with the almost unlimited budgets that NCIS has but not the four marriages and engaged for a fifth time.
I should just add the amount of women he attracts is somewhat ridiculous and their ages vary from mid 30 to mid 60s. Why such women are attracted to man who had been married 4 times is something that NEVER comes up. The worst pairing was with Jamie Lee Curtis who looked quite old, whose character went 180 degrees and they had no chemistry whatsoever.
The director of the Agency is a problem until Rocky Carroll comes on board.

Watch this series from season 3 to 12. Once Tony and Zhiva are no longer agents together the series becomes somewhat boring.

A great shame.

Covid has been bad for small government lovers

The Corona virus has been very bad for the small government types.

Outsourcing security down in Melbourne for those who arrived from overseas has proved a disaster.
Hard to disagree with Richard Holden.

The Aged Care industry is simply an unmitigated disaster.The royal commission heard terrible testimonies way before the industrys' woeful response to the virus.

The health industry has simply been cut to the bone by various Governments so its response has not been as it should be.

The labour market is now so liberalised people cannot afford to miss work even when they have the virus. Our labour market is imitating the US market and not in a good way.

We shall see a larger role for government now.

Ross Gittins opines.

Mainly Stats stuff

Some different articles mostly involving stats.

Firstly a study on male bisexuality.
Neither Andrew Gelman's blog ( it is Dan who writes not Andrew) nor  Statschats are impressed.
Next Statschat on Bogus polls. It is about the Kiwis but valuable nevertheless.

Since we are talking about politics here is Andrew Gelman responding well to Nate Silver's criticisms on polling for the US Presidential; election.
Now he writes about RA Fisher. Yes he was a racist but was that what he made his stats reputation on?

Our own Kevin Bonham on Essential's response to the massive polling failure of the last election.- does its new 2PP work?

And now for something completely different. Just how good is Peer Review. No Hesitations thinks it (rightly) over-rated.

Around the Traps 31/7/20

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Lisa Adkins et al  on homebuilder-only-makes-sense-as-a-nod-to-morrisons-home-owning-voter-base
• Bec Stratin on australia-lays-down-law-south-china-sea-dispute
• Ross Gittins on why-we-dont-need-to-panic-over-big-budget-deficits, thatcherism-our-conservatives-prefer-punishment-to-reform
• Nick Gruen on the-post-covid-recovery-a-snippet
• renew economy on all-australias-coal-generators-could-close-by-2040-and-it-wont-be-as-big-a-deal-as-youd-think, nine-more-solar-farms-could-have-output-cut-to-zero-due-to-system-strength-issues, worlds-fastest-energy-transition-aemo-maps-path-to-94-per-cent-renewables
• Croaking Cassandra on empty-vessels, not-expecting-enough-inflation, the-illegitimate-central-bank
• Warren Hogan et al on gambling-on-the-stock-market-are-retail-investors-even-playing-to-win
• Tony Walker on payne-and-reynolds-need-to-tread-carefully-in-washington-as-us-turns-up-the-heat-on-china
• Sean Scalmer on how-graham-berry-brought-party-democracy-to-colonial-australia-and-then-was-forgotten
• Michael Douglas on australias-outdated-defamation-laws-are-changing-but-theres-no-revolution-yet
• Michelle Grattan on view-from-the-hill-aged-care-crisis-reflects-poor-preparation-and-a-broken-system
• Heath Baker on managing-chinese-economic-risks-means-more-diversification
• Kevin Bonham on essentials-new-2pp-plus-what-is-it-and-does-it-make-any-sense
• Giovanni De Virgilio et al on under-climate-change-winter-will-be-the-best-time-for-bush-burn-offs-and-that-could-be-bad-news-for-public-health-
• Rowan Callik on payne-and-reynolds-leave-washington-with-key-wins-and-room-to-disagree-with-us-on-china
• Julian Teicher and Bernadine Van Gramberg on far-too-many-victorians-are-going-to-work-while-sick-far-too-many-have-no-choice
• Peter Martin on the-government-has-just-sold-15-billion-of-31-year-bonds-but-what-actually-is-a-bond
• Stephen Duckett and Will Mackey on no-australia-should-not-follow-swedens-approach-to-coronavirus
• Mary Louise McClaws on new-south-wales-on-a-knife-edge-as-cumulative-coronavirus-case-numbers-spiral-into-the-red-zone
• The kouk on climbing-the-covid-mountain
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-covid-19-crisis-in-aged-care-shows-elimination-is-the-only-effective-strategy
• Harry Scheule on why-nsw-is-skewing-its-tax-system-toward-build-to-rent-apartments-and-away-from-mum-and-pop-landlords
• Meg Elkins and Robert Hoffmann on what-to-do-with-anti-maskers-punishment-has-its-place-but-can-also-entrench-resistance

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on congressional-research-service-fiscal-policy-and-recovery-from-the-covid19-recession, collapsing-confidence-in-public-health-macroeconomic-management
• Li Zhou on alexandria-ocasio-cortez-speech-misogyny-sexism-congress
• New Deal Democrat on new-home-sales-roar-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels
• Brad De Long on statement-on-pandemic-unemployment-compensation-equitable-growth
• Erin Hurley on american-carnage-take-two
• the conversable economist on slavery-and-history-of-us-economic

Europe

• Rodger Shanahan on turkey-not-team-player
• Alexandre Dayant on europe-united-recovery-now
• stumbling and mumbling on maskphobia-the-face-of-conservativism
• James empty blog on the-price-of-freedom

Asia

• Richard McGregor on china-s-deep-state-communist-party-and-coronavirus
• Dominic Meager on what-s-secret-southeast-asia-covid-success-stories
• JJ Rose on battle-hong-kong-takes-new-shape
• Nic Bisley on on-china-us-speaks-loudly-but-carries-no-stick
• Ross Andersen on china-ai-surveillance
• Khang Vu on us-south-korea-working-group-blues

Wonk

• Peter Wark on heres-what-we-know-so-far-about-the-long-term-symptoms-of-covid-19
• John Quiggin on the-end-of-interest
• Tim Harford on why-experiments-matter-and-why-we-hate-them, will-the-mental-scars-of-covid-fade-or-endure
• stumbling and mumbling on ideas-interests-and-capital
• The ideological origins of the rule of law  Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Nick Gruen on non-linearities-risk-policy-and-administration 
• Ben Scott on five-eyes-blurring-lines-between-intelligence-and-policy
• Menzie Chinn on the-dollars-value-under-pressure, guest-contribution-international-factor-payments-and-the-pandemic, guest-contribution-lasting-damage-of-the-pandemic
• Greg Austin on explainer-why-is-the-south-china-sea-such-a-hotly-contested-region
• Vasabjit Banerjee and Timothy Rich on which-side-would-us-public-choose-india-china-conflict
• the conversable economist on simon-haeder-makes-gentle-case-nudging-kidney-donors
• Eric Lonergan on angrynomics-a-reply-to-chris-dillow, marx-has-the-last-laugh
• institutional economics on us-dollar-bears-and-gold-bulls
• Chris Bertram on whats-wrong-with-cancel-culture
• No Hesitations on dirty-non-secrets-of-scientific-peer-review

General

• David King on sniffles-sneezing-and-cough-how-to-tell-if-its-a-simple-allergy-rather-than-the-virus

Climate

• Science of Doom on models-and-rainfall-vii-australia-canesm2-csiro-miroc-and-mri-rcp4-5-rcp8-5
• John French et al on carbon-emissions-are-chilling-the-atmosphere-90km-above-antarctica-at-the-edge-of-space
• David Appell on US emissions hit record low
• Real Science on somebody-read-the-comments

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• when-was-the-first-literary-schlub
• which-in-your-personal-judgment-is-worse-if-you-could-only-choose-one-a-a-homosexual-b-a-doctor-who-refuses-to-make-a-house-call-to-someone-seriously-ill
• bad-research-scientism-the-importance-of-description-and-the-challenge-of-negativity
• the-crooks-get-the-headlines-but-the-real-problem-is-bad-science-done-by-non-crooks
• some-questions-from-high-school-students-about-college-and-future-careers
• the-history-of-low-hanging-intellectual-fruit
• statschat on rogue-polls
• Kaiser Fung on its-high-time-to-call-out-those-who-got-it-right

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on the-pandemic-recession-as-giant-outlier
• Econometric Sense on /assessing-balance-for-matching-and-rcts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• boom and bust 
• David Hopkins on book-review-memory-massacre-thailand
• and Then Theres Physics on superior
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-28-the-monopolists-by-mary-pilon

Vox wonk

• supply-side-impact-covid-19
• leaning-against-wind-empirical-cost-benefit-analysis
• economic-uncertainty-wake-covid-19-pandemic
• impact-phase-one-trade-agreement
• influence-covid-19-pandemic-safe-haven-assets
• welfare-impact-emission-standards-eu-automobile-market
• real-time-inflation-measurement-during-covid-19 
• transfer-pricing-intangible-assets-arm-s-length-principle
• quantitative-easing-and-helicopter-money-not-so-distant-cousins
• demand-versus-supply-price-adjustment-during-covid-19-pandemic
• reading-between-lines-ecbs-introductory-statements
• consumers-should-own-their-data
• sick-leave-generosity-and-unhealthy-returns-work
• reading-between-lines-ecbs-introductory-statements
• consumers-should-own-their-data
• microeconomics-cryptocurrencies
• race-and-covid-19-pandemic
• mutual-fund-performance-and-flows-under-covid-19
• excuses-prejudice
• robots-and-rise-european-superstar-manufacturers

Don't follow Sweden

The Grattan Institute comes in with an article showing Sweden is not the way to go on Corona virus.
THIS is also pertinent

If only Gigi Foster had known this on Monday on Q&A she would not had made a fool of herself.