Not Trampis: July 2015

Well A student is alleged to have been making statements in support of ISIL to students at Epping Boys High School.

Hmm

I have two boys going there. The vast majority of boys in the team I coach at cricket are at Epping.
This is what I have gleaned.

The boy concerned is:

large , has a lengthy beard and looks intimidating.
is in his last year at school
is not very technologically savvy.
does not talk about islam much in the playground
He allows people to express their views and then talks in other words he does not talk down to people
talked strongly against ISIL
Was born in Australia of Afghani descent

Tuesday, 28 July 2015

ETS V GST

I wrote not long ago about how a scare campaign on the ETS would not have the same effect this time round.
The public have experienced one and found it a big yawn. contrary to what a lot of very serious people believe it was not a major issue in the last election.

Moreover if it is linked to the ETS in Europe it is going to start at a low level so the initial price could well be less than half the $27 it was when a fixed price.

Now Tony Abbott could well be going to the next election promising to ~~double~~ increase the GST by 50% with the extra money going to the States for Health.

Here is the rub. Which measure will raise electricity prices more? Yes you guessed it in a highly ironically move Tony Abbott would do more to cut emissions by raising electricity prices however you lose a lot of the benefits of what the ETS would do.

Monday, 27 July 2015

Adam Goodes

Apparently a lot of politically correct people do not like spectators booing Adam Goodes at Aussie Rules games. Indeed they claim it is racist.

Racist ah.

The Swans have other aboriginals playing in the team. Do they get booed? NO!
Other Aussie rules teams have aboriginals in their teams. Do they get booed? No

It is only Adam Goodes.

It could well be they boo him simply because he is a tosser. It has been so ever since people have have going to sporting games.

It is pertinent to say here this only started when he deliberately made provocative gestures to part of a crowd. The only reason he wasn't fined , like any other sportsman, was because he was allegedly displaying his heritage.

Postscript
I should have added previously a person who pays their money at the turnstiles is entitled to cheer or boo as much as they wish.

Update:

If in a test match between Australia and New Zealand a Kiwi forward did a haka at Australian supporters immediately after scoring a try most people would see that as a provocative act. It is the same for Goodes!

When was was a young teenager I had a mate who was a Canterbury Bankstown supporter and I went to watch his team with him and his Dad. I heard the terms ape and monkey made frequently at players who were hirsute. It has never been a racist term where I have been.

Just saying

Thursday, 23 July 2015

Around the Traps 24/7/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Hopefully I will update on the weekend sometime. Greece still topical and tamino is on fire in climate

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Andrew Elder on reclaiming-george-christensen , debates-and-outcomes
Mark the Ballot on sealing-wax-sample-sizes-and-things, aggregated-poll-update
Kevin Bonham on why-was-press-release-about-peter-slipper-deleted
Alan Fels on bishop-case-rests-on-whether-fundraiser-was-speakers-official-business
Hugh Saddler on one-year-on-from-the-carbon-price-experiment-the-rebound-in-emissions-is-clear, how-much-would-labors-50-renewable-energy-policy-cost-australian-households
Andrew Catsaras on voters-verdict-part-2-abbott-is-worse-than gillard
Max Chalmers on nauru-inquiry-proves-we-cant-outsource-our-ethical-obligations-asylum-seekers
Antony Green on is-the-northern-territory-facing-an-early-election, background-on-swings-at-federal-by-elections
Greg Jericho on apartment-building-spree-will-it-lead-to-a-glut-or-transform-the-way-we-live
Ross Gittins on tax-reform-push-doesnt-add-up , everyone-wants-slice-of-higher-gst, were-not-doing-too-badly-on-productivity
Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-chopper-plus-turc-equals-zero
Tony Wood on labor-embraces-renewables-at-the-cost-of-good-climate-policy
John Freebairn on what-an-equitable-gst-reform-package-should-look-like
Charis Palmer and Emil Jeyaratnam on six-simple-tax-reforms-plagued-by-politics
Stephen Leeder on remind-me-again-whats-the-problem-with-hospital-funding
The Conversation on leaders-debate-the-gst-what-you-need-to-know
Croaking Cassandra on how-about-giving-inflation-a-chance , immigration-and-the-evidence-of-things-not-seen, glenn-stevens-on-monetary-policy
The Kouk on the-dollar-is-smashed-and-poised-to-fall-below-us70-cents-analysts-warn
Daniel Hurst on tony-abbotts-gst-epiphany-actually-a-long-time-in-the-works
Michael Brull on nothing-fear-fear-itself-and-maybe-isis-and-terrorism-and-muslims-and-everything
David Holmes on climate-zombies-can-labor-bring-back-a-tabloid-proof-climate-policy
Katherine Betts and Bob Birrell on truthy-untruths-behind-the-facade-of-the-intergenerational-report
Dylan Mc Connell on factcheck-does-coal-fired-power-cost-79-kwh-and-wind-power-1502-kwh
Flavio Menezes on factcheck-is-the-gst-as-efficient-but-less-equitable-than-income-tax
Johm Mathews on 50-renewable-energy-would-put-australia-in-line-with-leading-nations
Matthew Currell on shenhua-mines-water-uncertainty-means-we-should-proceed-with-caution
John Quiggin on how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-ret

Northern America

David Frum on the-right-and-wrong-questions-to-ask-about-iran
Robert Waldman on delong-and-baker-discuss-two-bubbles-and-two-recessions
Croaking Cassandra on the-zero-lower-bound-and-miles-kimballs-visit
Calculated risk on a-comment-on-interest-only-mortgage-loans ,a-few-random-comments-on-june-existing-home-sales,comments-on-new-home-sales
Kevin Lansing on assessing-recent-inflation-behavior-phillips-curve Thanks Mark
Noah Smith on there-s-just-one-way-to-achieve-4-percent-growth
Growth economics on you-cant-reform-your-way-to-rapid-growth Thanks Mark
Donald Crtichlow on donald-trump-supporters-caught-between-respect-for-military-and-hatred-of-government
Menzie Chinn on a-brief-note-on-prices-of-imported-chinese-goods , guest-contribution-time-to-re-estimate-the-u-s-output-gap-have-the-scars-from-the-crisis-healed
James Hamilton onmeasuring-unemployment

Europe

Simon Wren-Lewis on ireland-and-greece , when-labour-lost-its-soul-and-the-next-election, apprenticeships-and-conservative-governments
Fabio Ghironi on variable-geometry-bites-back-schauble-s-motives
Christos Koulovatianos on why-debt-sustains-corruption-greece-and-vice-versa
Charles Wyplosz on greece-should-prepare-grexit-and-then-not-do-it
David Beckworth on who-predicted-eurozone-crisis
Tony Yates on greek-plan-b-would-have-been-self-fulfilling-and-sabotaged-plan-a , charles-wyplosz-urges-syriza-to-get-ready-for-grexit, the-global-surplus-bogeyman-recycling-mechanism
Coppolla comment on the-great-greek-bank-drama-act-ii-heist, not-such-great-depression, when-reason-departs
Chris Dillow on labours-economic-narrative, reality-vs-the-bubble , corbyns-success-labours-shame, yes-labour-must-change
Vassilas Fouskas and Constine Dimolous on greece-has-two-choices-and-so-do-creditors
Peter Dorman on the-euro-from-cash-to-kesh
Kruggers on the-half-lives-of-others-wonkish , annoying-euro-apologetics
David Beckworth on the-big-lesson-of-eurozone-crisis
Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-only-tsipras-can-go-to-china
Mean squared Errors on easier-than-you-think-how-to-devalue-greek-euro, greek-economy-how-terrible-was-it Thanks Mark
Edward Wilson on from-reactionary-revolution-to-consolidation-11-february-1975-to-7-may-2015
Etieene Balibar, Sandro Mezzadra and Frieder Otto Wolf on syrizas-dilemma-and-ours
Joscka Fischer on return-of-the-ugly-german Thanks Brad
Phillipe Legrain on germany-current-account-surplus-problem Thanks Brad
Kevin O'Rourke on Economists and the European democratic deficit Thanks Mark
Nick Rowe on are-all-eurozone-gdp-data-fake
Hans Werner-Sinn on why-greece-should-leave-the-eurozone Thanks Mark
Kevin O'Rourke on guest-post-by-marios-zachariadis-on-the-greek-crisis-and-german-imbalances

Asia

Benjamin Budde on The-limited-effectiveness-of-US-Middle-East-policy
David Graham on martin-omalley-isis-climate-change
Peter Beinart on iran-iraq-war-nuclear-deal
Barkely Rosser on is-chinas-problems-responsible-for-recent-market-slides

Wonk

David Warsh on the rivals Thanks Mark
James Hamilton on firm-specific-factors-in-rising-income-inequality
Noah Smith on free-market-ideology-and-burden-of-proof
John Quiggin on competitive-equilibrium-excerpt-from-economics-in-two-lessons
Eric Lonegran on ricardian-equivalence-another-reason-why-fiscal-policy-works
Money and Banking on aiib-the-first-international-financial-institution-of-the-21st-century
Nick Rowe on discontinuities-and-coordination-games, individual-and-aggregate-incentives-to-cut-prices-in-a-recession, panglossian-expectations-and-the-phillips-curve, proxies-for-monetary-disequilibrium
Croaking Cassandra on fiscal-and-monetary-policy-interactions-some-new-zealand-history, the-shadow-board-on-tomorrows-ocr, how-sacrosanct-should-inflation-targeting-be
Roger Farmer on why-belief-function-matters
Timothy Taylor on who-will-nudge-the-nudgers, parsing-financial-transactions-tax
Simon Wren-Lewis on raising-minimum-wage
Sandwichman on sandwichmans-lump-of-labor-odyssey
Kruggers on the-essential-obstfeld
Noah Smith on best-tool-to-fight-poverty-also-encourages-work, survey-expectations-some-more-evidence
David Glasner on neo-fisherism-and-all-that
Brad De Long on Depression's advocates

General

Tim Harford on its-tough-turning-ideas-into-gold
Rosalie Holian on eq-versus-iq-whats-the-perfect-management-mix
Noah Smith on nerd-culture-and-its-discontents
Henry Farrell on a-brief-theory-of-very-serious-people
Phillip Scher on the-grateful-dead-were-decades-ahead-of-their-time

Climate

David Appell on interesting-graphs-from-noaas-press-conference, a-current-comparison-of-models-and-observations , gistemp-only-004c-behind-models
Nick Stokes on a-breakdown-of-monthly-temperature-variation, noaa-up-003-in-june-giss-now-up-004, record-warm-periods
Tamino on new-giss-data , fundamental-differences-between-bob-tisdale-and-reality
Idiot tracker on gistemp-july-2015-tied-for-hottest-ever, judith-curry-please-save-me-from-my-belief-in 10c-in-warming, bad-year-for-wild-fire , nasa-and-noaa, five-signs-of-denial
Greg Laden on june-2015-was-warm
Science of Doom on clouds-water-vapor-part-ten-data-iii-annual-ts-vs-olr
Ed Hawkins on back-of-the-envelope-attribution
John Abraham on oceans-warming-faster-than-models-predicted
Robert McSweeney on noaa-state-of-climate-seven-records-broken-2014
Hotwhopper on latest-enso-report-its-getting-stronger
and Then There's Physics on is-the-gwpf-avin-a-larf-again
Jim Milks on the-ice-age-cometh
Lauren McCauley on smashing-all-previous-records-2015-track-be-hottest-year-yet
Samantha Page on hansen-report-says-2-degrees-is-too-much
David and Denise Holland on scientist-at-work-mathematician-collects-ocean-and-glacier-data-in-the-field-to-make-climate-models-in-the-lab
Eliza Berlage on abrupt-climate-warming-not-cold-snaps-kicked-off-megafauna-extinction-study
Will Grant and Erin Walsh on googles-vast-library-reveals-the-rising-tide-of-climate-related-words-in-literature
Ricky Rood on Theres an ice age coming Good timing
Jeff Masters on fewer but stronger tropical cyclones due to ocean warming
Michael Brown on the-mini-ice-age-hoopla-is-a-giant-failure-of-science-communication

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly stats)

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

nuttin as yet. Not happy Dave
Marc Bellamare on outliers Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + Book Reviews)

not-all-economists-are-neoliberal-honest , in-remembrance-of-times-past, government-by-gang , europes-former-glories, the-collective-pursuit-of-important-aims
Frances Woolley on the-beer-ine-quality-index
James Smalls on a-teacher-uses-star-trek-for-difficult-conversations-on-race-and-gender
Doverbeach on Tolkien and the Inklings

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 22 July 2015

Glenn Stevens casts doubt on trend growth

Glenn Stevens who is the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia made a speech yesterday.

In it he talked about whether the trend rate of growth has declined lately. It may have declined for the 3.25% most people (and the budget assumed) thought.

This does have implications for fiscal policy. It does mean that when the economy gets back to its trend level the budget will not gain the revenue you would normally expect and thus the budget would not automatically balance..

This means there must be either cuts to expenditure and/or a rise in taxes to enable the budget to balance ONCE the economy is back at trend growth.

To do that now when the economy is weak is to repeat the mistake Wayne Swan did when he cut 0.7 percentage points from GDP. Easily the most austere budget since budget figures were collected.

Thus any Government ( or Opposition needs both a short-term fiscal policy together with a medium term policy.
In the immediate term we need to get back to trend growth. In the medium term we need fiscal consolidation.

Tuesday, 21 July 2015

What did the price on Carbon do in Australia

Hugh Saddler examines putting a price on carbon affected carbon emissions in Australia.
He finds that emissions fell when we had a price on carbon and started to rise when the price was removed.
Who'd thunked it!
What is particularly interesting is the different reactions between the wholesale and retail markets.
What should not be forgotten is the rise in prices to pay for a gold paved poles and wires.

Very interesting article.

Monday, 20 July 2015

Changing taxes

Perhaps the silliest argument about whether to increase the GST is that it is a regressive tax. Does this mean you only increase or have progressive taxes? The best indirect tax is a GST. A country must have an indirect tax. Overall the GST should be broadened with compensation for low income earners or those on welfare.

It isn't whether an individual tax is progressive or regressive but whether the TAX SYSTEM is progressive.

I doubt many people would argue the more money you make the more taxes you should pay. As it is overall the Australian taxation is progressive however equity is only one concept you take into account. Efficiency is another one.
The Henry taxation review was pretty good and one only need adopt most of its reconsiderations.

In essence you get rid of most state taxes and have broad based taxes in their stead.

Go do it!

The Ashes Second Test

Wow, The second test was a mirror image of the first test except Australia were far more dominant.

The Australian batsmen were rarely troubled and easily scored runs. The bowlers were disciplined and swung the ball better than their pommy counterparts. They also got more out of this dead pitch.
They fielded well.After winning the toss Clarke captained well. The two changes worked quite well.

The Poms were awful. Lords was a dead batting pitch yet they managed only 103 in the second innings. They need an attacking partner for Cook opening, A first drop with a decent technique and a replacement for Bell. Pieterson is the obvious replacement for Bell. Bairstow for Ballance.
Against the Windies, The Kiwis and now us the poms are usually 4-3- or 40 or 50. given this has occurred too often something must be done.
Only Broad was impressive bowling. Anderson had the worst test I have ever seen him play.
I doubt if the bowlers will bowl as badly again.

I think we are favourites to win the Ashes however Anderson can still win a test on his day. if he bowls badly the Poms are shot ducks.

We shall see

Sunday, 19 July 2015

Bronwyn Bishop and politicians' entitlements

The trouble Bronwyn Bishop is in over her use of a helicopter shows no signs of abating.
I am with Andrew Elder on what it is really about. Laurie Oakes reinforces Andrew's opinion of Bishop.
Bishop's behaviour has allowed this to go on when it should have run its course ages ago.Her political judgement has always been poor so no surprises there.

I have no sympathy for Bishop. She is clearly a pathetic speaker and the only one to suspend a member for laughing!

However it does raise politicians' entitlements and whether they should be changed.

In private enterprise if you stay anywhere you pay the bill and are reimbursed for the amount. The politicians are paid an allowance. This is ludicrous.

Take where they live in Canberra. .If she share living with other politicians and thus the rent and it is well below the allowance they are given they make money.

Politicians should not be able to access superannuation before anyone can.

The entitlements have come about because we do not pay politicians as much as they should be so they try and make up for it by other means.

It should be reformed.

Postscript:
Banaby Joyce thought he had a gotcha on Shorten. He didn't and now has egg over his face.
Even though Shorten's trip was justified like Abbott's down in Melbourne it should not have been.

More evidence of the need for reform.

Thursday, 16 July 2015

Around the Traps 17/7/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.
More Grexit etal articles in Europe and Pluto articles are in General.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy.Oy

Croaking Cassandra on just-how-large-a-contribution-has-net-migration-made-to-population-growth , a-useful-snz-innovation-but-a-question, a-severe-commentary, how-not-to-have-a-reasoned-and-deliberate-discussion-of-housing-and-immigration
Ross Gittins on lower-dollar-boosts-services-exports
Mathew Ricketson on six-reasons-abbotts-peace-deal-on-qanda-isnt-quite-what-it-seems
Brian McNair on managing-the-mallah-fallout-qanda-under-scrutiny
Kevin Bonham on reachtel-liberals-narrowly-holding-in.Tassie
Greg Jericho on the-housing-booms-not-over-but-theres-good-news-for-hopeful-buyers, inequality-has-fallen-yet-the-poor-remain-in-danger-of-being-left-behind
Max Chalmers on unfair-welfare-daily-telegraph-pinged-press-council , why-will-abbott-let-mp-speak-reclaim-australia-rally-not-qa
The Kouk on and-that-s-the-century-up-for-the-abbott-government
Andrew Elder on the-smell-of-kerosene
Simon Chapman on the-australians-campaign-against-wind-farms-continues-but-the-research-doesnt-stack-up
Irfan Ahmad on reclaiming-australia-liberalisms-role-in-islamophobia
Tony Wood on the-latest-turn-in-the-twisty-history-of-labors-climate-policies

The ASHES

Tony and the boys on second-test-lords

Northern America

Lorenzo on the-poisonous-legacy-of-slavery-and-the-us-race-tangle , when-the-three-languages-of-us-politics-get-in-the-way
Calculated Risk on the-shrinking-deficit, key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-june, comments-on-june-housing-starts
David Beckworth on did-monetary-policy-really-offset-fiscal-austerity-in Canada
Timothy Taylor on the-declining-number-of-illegal , some-economics-of-freedom-of-information-act
Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-more-mediocrity, fed-watch-the-case-for-september
David Frum on domestic-political-consequences-iran-nuclear-deal , iran-deal-2016-presidential-election
Garret Epps on clarence-thomas-unusual-evolution
John Robertson and Elwyn Terry on have-changing-job-and-worker-characteristics-restrained-wage-growth
Paul Waldman on the-next-gop-president-wont-walk-away-from-the-iran-deal-heres-why Thanks Brad
Brent Meyer ondifferent-strokes-for-different-folks, getting-to-the-core-of-goods-and-services-prices
Livio De Matteo on the-great-convergence-federal-transfer-revenue-shares-198081-to-201314
ProGrowth liberal on heritage-economist-on-greece-and-us
John Holbo on where-is-this-going-someone-tell-me
Peter Beinhart on iran-nuclear-deal
Noah Smith on growth-fantasy-of-tax-cuts-and-small-government

Europe

James Hamilton on possible-scenarios-for-greece
Simon Wren-Lewis on the-great-recession-and-eurozone-crisis , greece-and-trust , labour-and-deficit, labour-and-deficit-tristram-hunt-follow
Tim Harford on george-osbornes-gamble-with-jobs
Tony Yates on greek-bank-bread-and-buiter, mark-carney-and-the-yield-curve
David Glasner on le-boche-payera-tout
Antonio Fatas on micromanagement-of-european-reforms
Justin Links on religion-class-and-turkeys-new-left
Cas Mudde on its-time-to-end-eurosceptic-illusions
Emily Tamkin on russias-senseless-investigation-into-baltic-independence
George Kyros on greece-a-europe-forged-in-one-crisis-may-have-laid-the-foundations-for-the-next
Costas Mylos on tsipras-may-have-just-done-the-best-deal-possible-for-greece
Kruggers on roach-motel-economics, the-pause-of-2014 , history-lessons-for-euro-debtors
John Quiggin on bluffed
Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on after-greece-saving-emu Thanks Mark
Barry Eichengreen on greece-debt-agreement-risks Thanks Brad
Menzie Chinn on greece-is-internal-devaluation-enough
Charles Wyplosz on new-european-union
Philip Lane on considering-the-greek-crisis
Sandwichman on slush-fund-schauble
Kenneth Thomas on impending-disaster-in-greece
Anton Muscatelli on greece-a-bad-deal-for-everyone
Sony Kapur on thisisnotacoup-dispelling-some-myths-about-greek-agreement Thanks Mark
Jacques Delpla and Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas on Greek_Banks Thanks Brad
Thorsten Beck on greece-and-can-keeps-rolling
Peter Dorman on the-greek-transportation-giveaway
Barbora Cernusakova on we-are-not-antigreeks-need-for-return-of-solidarity-to-east
Andreas Chatzidakis on what-now-for-greece-what-now-for-left
Fil Lekkas on some-harsh-truths-for-germans-greeks-and-europeans
Lorenzo on the-rotten-heart-of-europe
Brad De Long on when-greece-her-knee-in-suppliance-bent
Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-europeans-think-about-europe-in-the-aftermath-of-the-crisis
Bill Mitchell on Euro exit will not be enough for Greece
Mikhail Molchanov on unsolving-ukraine-conflict
Matt O'Brien on the-euro-is-a-disaster-even-for-the-countries-that-do-everything-right Thanks Brad
Karl Whelan on alice-in-schauble-land-where-rules-mean-what-wolfgang-says-they-mean Thanks Brad
Paul De Grauwe on why-ecb-should-not-insist-repayment-its-greek-bonds
Nauro Campos and FAbrizio Coricelli on reforming-greece
Jeff Gordan and Jeff Ringe on greece-and-missing-banking-union
Barkely Rosser on the-papandreouization-of-alexis-tsipras
Coppolla Comment on the-great-greek-bank-drama-act-i
Chris Dillow on the-cushnie-principle
mean squared errors on greece-growth-or-recovery Thanks Mark
Ben Bernanke on greece-and-europe Thanks Mark

Asia

Matt Schiavenza on thailand-china-uighur-refugees
Croaking Cassandra on considering-the-veracity-of-chinese-gdp-christopher-balding
Saleem Ali on energy-and-economic-diplomacy-can-trump-the-nuclear-threat-of-the-iran-deal
Shadi Armad on iran-nuclear-deal-consequences-obama
Barkely Rosser on is-iran-really-like-north-korea
Shujiro Yazawa on crisis-of-democracy-in-japan

Wonk

Noah Smith on woodford-vs-neo-fisherians , a-finance-industry-insider-on-equilibrium-asset -pricing-models, capitalism-that-helps-cronies-or-the-public-good-
Nick Rowe on alpha-beta-ecb-independence-and-omega-lender-of-last-resort, privately-issued-preloaded-drachma-cards, understanding-schmidt-and-woodford-on-neo-fisherianism , wtf-and-neo-fisherianism-as-one-social-construction-of-reality
Chris Dillow on minimum-wages-and-jobs, in-defence-of-welfare, three-paradigms-of-maximization
John Quiggin on tisataafl
David Warsh on The rivals Thanks Mark
Growth Economics on understanding-diffusion-models-of-growth Thanks Mark
Tim Harford on why-wishful-thinking-doesnt-work
Timothy Taylor on productivity-growth-and-diffusion
Simon Wren-Lewis on evidence-for-monetary-offset
David Glasner on exposed-milton-friedmans-cluelessness-about-the-insane-bank-of-france, the-pot-calls-the-kettle-black

General

Greg Laden on why-is-pluto-not-a-planet
Chris Arridge on new-horizons-is-an-old-spacecraft-but-it-will-transform-our-knowledge-of-pluto
Alan Taylor on the-voyage-of-new-horizons-jupiter-pluto-and-beyond
Gerraint Jones on new-horizons-brings-plutos-mysterious-moons-into-sharper-focus
David Rothery on historic-close-ups-of-pluto-and-its-moon-charon-present-puzzle-for-scientists
Mike Summers on a-team-members-view-of-all-the-work-on-earth-it-took-to-get-new-horizons-to-pluto
Kevin Orrman-Rosstter and Alice Gorman on fnding-pluto-the-hunt-for-planet-x
Norman Naimark on genocide-isnt-history-its-part-of-the-long-term-human-experience
Asma Afsaruddin on a-new-weapon-of-islamist-extremists-is-poetry
Simon Chadwick on warning-for-fifa-in-barcelona-as-fans-bid-to-end-qatar-sponsorship

Climate

Artic Sea Ice Blog on nares-strait-ice-on-the-move, junction-june-2015
Greg Laden on suddenly-the-atlantic-and-delores
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters on Chan-Hom
Tamino on i-was-wrong , extreme, so-hot , breaking-climate dont-do-the-wilcoxon , most-extremely-hotter-than-usual-month
Lawrence Hamilton on polar-facts-age-of-polarization
Andy Skuce on Carbon cycle feedbacks and the worst case greenhouse gas pathway
Skeptical science on economic-growth-can-close-emissions-gap
And then there's physics on mini-ice-age , understanding-versus-accepting, rude-and-touchy
Hotwhopper on watching-global-thermometer-year-to-date
The conversation on factcheck-has-australia-met-its-climate-goals-while-other-nations-make-airy-fairy-promises
Nick Stokes on giss-new-version-up-by-003-in-june
Dana1981 0n no-sun-isnt-going-to-save-us-from-global-warming
John Abraham on global-warming-rain-melting-greenland-ice-sheet
Timothy Taylor on global-carbon-intensity-rises-kaya
Ross gittins on all-we-should-be-doing-to-protect-land-and-water

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

questions-about-size-and-power-of-test
No Hestitations on what-seasonally-adjusted-us-economic-data-needs-most Thanks Mark
Kids Prefer Cheese on who-cares-about-getting-asymptotically-correct-standard-error-for-a-possibly-massively-inefficient-coefficient-estimate thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

imagined-communities , global-value-chains
Brad De Long on notes-on-trekonomics

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 15 July 2015

Would an ETS be a vote killer for the ALP?

There was a leak yesterday on a discussion paper from the ALP. This undoubtedly came from a business group to whom it was given for comment. Holy gullibility Batman!

however if the ALP do adopt an ETS as policy would it be a negative for the ALP? I have heard Tony Abbott is a great negative campaigner and would be all over this.

One BIG problem with this argument however. A scare campaign only works before a policy is implemented not after.
The GST was a vote loser for Howard BUT after it was implemented it was a bit of a yawn. The paperwork associated with it like the BAS certainly cheesed a lot of people off but not the GST.
Similarly the ETS which the previous Government imposed was a vote loser but again a BIG yawn once it came in.

People have memories. you cannot make a scare campaign on a policy which occurred and nothing happened like you said it would particularly if you went into hyperbole overdrive on it like Tony Abbott did.

Imagine a leader's debate and Abbott starts to hyperventilate about the ETS. Shorten merely has to look into the camera and ask the people of Whyalla was Tony Abbott correct? In other word It is very east for Abbott to get fed on this issue. Moreover Abbott has little credibility these days.

Of course this all assumes the ALP are capable politicians and we recently saw in the Killing season many are not.

Not Trampis

Thursday, 30 July 2015

Around the Traps 31/7/15

Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Happenings at Epping boys High School