Ross Gittins is on the money

 Ross Gittins writes a damned good column today.

He makes the point inflation is because of supply factors so central banks traditionally fight inflation because of demand management.  

We have inflation problems because of energy prices surging courtesy of Russia invading Ukraine, food and vegetables prices rising because of the floods and supply constraints primarily because of what is occurring in china.  Clearly two of these factors are transitory.

Around the Traps 29/6/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Joshua Black on even-in-the-political-afterlife-morrison-departs-from-the-norm
• Michelle Grattan on officials-resisted-morrison-governments-attempt-to-have-them-amplify-election-day-boat-arrival
• Ann Foerster et al on 4-lessons-for-the-albanese-government-in-making-its-climate-targets-law-we-cant-afford-to-get-this-wrong
• Kevin Bonhan on federal-election-2022-pollster-performance-review
• the tally room on what made up labour's election winning strategy 
• renew economy on bowen-frees-arena-from-taylors-fossil-fuel-mandate-puts-focus-back-on-renewables, good-vibe-new-data-shows-wind-farm-complaints-tumbled-in-2021, look-no-trackers-stanford-engineers-say-pyramid-shaped-lens-can-capture-more-solar, aemo-urges-accelerated-shift-to-renewables-amid-coal-failures-and-soaring-fossil-fuel-costs, opportunity-cost-the-role-played-by-snowys-hydro-plants-in-electricity-price-spike
• Tayanah O'Donnell on building-too-close-to-the-water-its-ridiculous-talk-of-buyouts-after-floods-shows-need-to-get-serious-about-climate-adaptation
• Frank Bongornio on do-we-care-enough-about-covid
• Institutional economics on the-neutral-real-interest-rate-doomloop, the-canadian-australian-business-sector-productivity-gap-a-sectoral-analysis
• Peter Martin on labor-is-winding-back-reforms-meant-to-hold-super-funds-accountable-to-their-members
• Croaking Cassandra on a-voice-from-the-past, a-public-inquiry-isnt-necessary, did-it-make-a-difference
• Ross Gittins on inflation-small-problem-so-dont-hit-sledgehammer
• Andrew Stewart on killing-off-the-building-watchdog-may-not-be-the-win-unionists-want
• Michael Toole and Brendan Crabb on australias-response-to-covid-in-the-first-2-years-was-one-of-the-best-in-the-world-why-do-we-rank-so-poorly-now
• John Quiggin on labor-has-introduced-its-controversial-climate-bill-to-parliament-heres-how-to-give-it-real-teeth
• John Quiggin and Flavio Menezes on inflation-is-being-amplified-by-firms-with-market-power
• John Hawkins on inflation-hasnt-been-higher-for-32-years-what-now
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-is-increasing-interest-rates-to-counter-inflation-but-it-will-also-slow-wages-growth
• Hal Swerissen on 4-in-10-nursing-homes-have-a-covid-outbreak-and-the-death-rate-is-high-whats-going-wrong
• Saul Eslake on the-chalmers-graphs-7-75-inflation-plunging-real-wages-weak-growth
• James Curran on australia-china-relations-understanding-how-we-arrived-point

Northern America

• Jeremy Stahl on steve-bannon-guilty-no-surprise-there
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-gavin-newsom-sb-8-abortion-guns-california-assault-rifle-law
• Richard Hasen on collins-manchin-election-bill-democrats-should-grab
• the message box on why-the-16-hearings-have-damaged-trump Thanks Brad
• noahopinion on why-doesnt-the-fed-just-hike-200bp-all-at-once
• new deal democrat on after-the-civil-war-reconstruction
• Nathaniel Rackich on why-democrats-midterm-chances-dont-hinge-on-bidens-approval-rating
• policy tensor on the-yield-curve-is-predicting-much-worse-than-a-recessions thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on immigrants-assimilating-then-and-now
• renew economy on three-reasons-why-us-coal-power-is-disappearing-and-a-supreme-court-ruling-wont-save-it
• James Hamilton on is-this-a-recession
• Nick Gruen on should-liz-cheney-be-your-hero

Europe

• Ben Wellings on boris-johnson-says-his-time-as-uk-pm-was-mission-largely-accomplished-how-does-that-actually-stack-up
• John Quiggin on the-kosovo-precedent
• Timothy Snyder on why Russia is losing ( twitter ) thanks Tyler ,the-state-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war
• stumbling and mumbling on the-futility-of-economic-policy-debate
• Mainly Macro on sunak-vs-truss-battle-between-two-failed-economic-policies
• Felix Salmon on russia-sanctions-economic-impact
• Menzie Chinn on the-fiscal-and-fx-crises-of-the-russian-state-in-war
• Mathew Sussex on are-vladimir-putins-nuclear-threats-a-bluff-in-a-word-probably
• Andrew Freedman on global-warming-worsened-uk-heat-wave

Asia

• Michael Clarke on dizzy-success-xi-consolidates-repression-xinjiang
• noahopinion on pakistan-is-in-big-trouble
• Thilak Mallawaarachchi on how-did-sri-lanka-run-out-of-money-5-graphs-that-explain-its-economic-crisis
• Menzie Chinn on china-outlook-from-the-weo
• Shivanghi Seth on smoke-screen-normalcy-kashmir
• Stephen Roach on china-hit-hard-by-slowing-world-trade Thanks Brad

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on will-commodity-prices-continue-to-sustain-inflation
• Divyanshu Jindal on element-doubt-rare-earths-targeted-disinfo-campaign
• Stephen Grenville on capital-flows-emerging-economies
• Barkes on the-grain-deal
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-codetermination, is-a-recession-defined-as-two-negative-quarters
• the UnPopulist on the-triple-justification-for-liberalism Thanks Brad
• Eyes on the right on  thinking-about-fascismpart-1 , thinking-about-fascismpart-2Thanks Brad
• The Bellows on the-end-of-the-conservative-age Thanks Brad
• Phillips O'Brien on great-power-country-economy-technology-military
• Tyler Cowen on in-praise-of-regulatory-arbitrage
• coppolla comment on where-has-all-money-gone

General

• Tim Harford on your-phones-notification-settings-and-the-meaning-of-life
• noahopinion on four-things-i-got-wrong-since-i-started-this-blog

Climate

• Open Mind on extra-ordinary-heat-wave
• Rabett run on more-hydrogen-less-methane-about-same-ho
• Norman Duke on climate-change-killed-40-million-australian-mangroves-in-2015-heres-why-theyll-probably-never-grow-back
• and Then Theres Physics on revisiting-causality-using-stochastics
• the conversable economist on the-no-burn-forest-policy-origins-and-consequences

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• basboll-gets-gpt-3-to-write-an-entire-five-paragraph-essay-complete-with-fake-references
  
• recently-in-the-sister-blog-13
  
• details-of-implementation-of-machine-learning-algorithms
  
• after-work-socializing-alcohol-car-crashes
  
• how-music-works-by-david-byrne-and-sweet-anticipation-by-david-huron
  
• what-can-100000-get-you-nowadays-discussion-of-the-market-for-papers-in-economics
  
• discussion-on-identifiability-and-bayesian-inference
  
• statschat on briefly, attendance-figures, counting-bots-better
• Kaiser Fung on self-checkout-and-fast-passes

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• social-media-and-mental-health
  
• impact-foreign-sanctions-firm-performance-russia
  
• public-versus-secret-voting-committees
  
• winter-coming-energy-policy-towards-russia
  
• crime-effect-refugees
  
• measuring-ukraine-s-private-consumption-during-war
  
• ruble-payments-shielding-ruble-financial-sanctions
  
• long-run-labour-market-effects-canada-us-free-trade-agreement
  
• parsing-disagreement-about-future-short-term-interest-rates
  
• neighbourhoods-won-t-be-improved-banning-unemployed
  
• large-firms-react-more-strongly-macro-shocks-and-it-matters
  
• variability-impacts-covid-19-student-achievement
  
• river-pollution-combating-cross-border-externalities
  

Should we wear masks?

 In Around the Traps is this really interesting article.

The sanctions on Russia are working

 Felix Salmon at Axios has a ripper of an article on how the sanctions are hurting Russia.

Well worth a read particularly the link

Update:

Menzie Chinn

Timothy Snyder ( well sort of)

Rookie Blue

 Between my youngest son getting covid (and food poisoning) and somehow me not getting it at all it has been a strange week.. 

Now I learn David Warner has died. A great actor. Why are british actors ( and series) so much better than yank ones?

I got onto rookie blue by a complete fluke. I saw it advertised on a Channel 7 program I had taped. Missy Peregram is one of the actresses in the series and I knew her from FBI. She is much younger, quite attractive and thinner in this series and her character allows her to do more than in FBI.

It is a canadian police series and it is a good one. The characters are okay with a caveat. I saw plenty of people I had seen on Murdoch Mysteries as well.

If you want to see it for FREE then register on 7plus. If you do not like the first episode then you won't like the series. There are only 5 seasons and most seasons are short except for the last.

The only caveat is the relationships of the characters. They switch partners so often you get dizzy. One female cavorts around with men and then 'discovers' she is a lesbian! Yes it was embarrassing and it must be a north american disease!

I recommend the series however. It is good fun.

Federal election poll performance review

 At last we now have Kevin Bonham to put his eye over the pollsters performance at the last election.

Around the Traps 22/7/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kate Griffiths et al on heres-a-simple-way-to-stop-governments-giving-jobs-to-mates
• Holly Seale on mask-mandates-will-we-only-act-on-public-health-advice-if-someone-makes-us
• renew economy on eureka-moment-as-australian-researchers-make-hydrogen-storage-breakthrough, here-comes-the-sun-did-rooftop-solar-save-the-day-in-queensland, graph-of-the-day-wind-output-surges-to-australian-record-of-more-than-7000mw, nothing-can-beat-it-the-rise-and-rise-of-solar-and-battery-storage, aemo-says-firmed-wind-and-solar-cheapest-reliable-energy-option-by-country-mile, why-a-capacity-mechanism-will-require-revived-renewable-energy-target
• Adam Simpson on theres-a-smart-way-to-push-labor-harder-on-emissions-cuts-without-reigniting-the-climate-wars
• Emma Johnston on this-is-australias-most-important-report-on-the-environments-deteriorating-health-we-present-its-grim-findings
• Hugh Piper on australia-s-new-government-seizes-international-bully-pulpit
• Stephen Hickson on inflation-is-2022s-boogeyman-how-can-we-address-rising-living-costs-while-helping-bring-it-down
• Rebecca Pearse on 3-lessons-from-australias-climate-wars-and-how-we-can-finally-achieve-better-climate-policy
• Peter Martin on wellbeing-its-why-labors-first-budget-will-have-more-rigour-than-any-before-it
• Adrian Esterman on covid-hospitalisations-and-deaths-are-rising-faster-than-cases-but-that-doesnt-mean-more-severe-disease
• Laura Schujers and Thomas Newsome on bad-and-getting-worse-labor-promises-law-reform-for-australias-environment-heres-what-you-need-to-know
• Institutional Economics on the-review-of-the-rba-everything-is-on-the-table-and-thats-good
• Greg Jericho on wages-growth-should-be-skyrocketing-on-the-back-of-australias-low-unemployment-is-the-system-broken
• Stephen Bartos on election-promises-should-be-costed-before-polling-day-otherwise-its-too-late
• Thea Van Der Mortel on masks-are-strongly-suggested-by-health-authorities-as-the-winter-covid-wave-hits-heres-how-effective-they-are
• Brendan Shannon on ambulance-ramping-is-a-signal-the-health-system-is-floundering-solutions-need-to-extend-beyond-eds
• The pollbludger on the-polls-and-the-sum-of-the-parts

Northern America

• The Racket on an-fdr-size-hole Thanks Brad
• the conversable economist on 50-years-of-us-environmental-policy, learning-loss-during-the-pandemic
• noahopinion on the-wreck-of-bidenomics
• Ben Jacobs on january-6-committee-trump-liz-cheney
• Eric Kramer on the-uses-and-limits-of-bipartisanship
• Allie Volpe on birth-control-roe-v-wade-america
• Robert Kuttner on free-markets-besieged-citizens
• Fabio Bertoni on justice-neil-gorsuchs-radical-reinterpretation-of-the-first-amendment
• Uneasy Money on supply shocks and our summer of inflation discontent
• new deal democrat on inflation-should-the-fed-continue-to-raise-rates-and-whether-it-is-behind-the-curve
• Laura Bronner and Amelia Thomson-Deveaux on want-to-know-where-the-supreme-court-goes-next-look-at-alitos-and-thomass-dissents
• Tyler Cowen on some-reasons-why-the-u-s-dollar-is-strong
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-us-q2-gdp-announcement-will-not-mean-recession
• Nicole Narea on attorney-general-races-2022-georgia-texas-michigan
• Li Zhou on joe-biden-bad-polls-approval-rating-economy-inflation
• Laura Miller on liz-cheney-not-mad-disappointed

Europe

• Unheard on is-russia-winning-the-war Thanks Nick 
• Benjamin Jones on deconstructing-the-cult-of-winston-churchill-racism-deification-and-nostalgia-for-empire
• Ian Hill on winter-coming-staying-course-ukraine
• Neel Dhanesha and Benji Jones on europe-uk-heat-wave-roads-trains-climate-change
• Jen Kirby on uk-conservatives-rishi-sunak-liz-truss
• Tom McTague on uk-europe-heatwave-temperature-record
• John Quiggin on britain-the-new-el-salvador
• stumbling and mumbling on tories-structural-stupidity
• noahopinion on turkey-you-were-doing-so-well
• Alexander Gillespie on russia-says-peace-in-ukraine-will-be-on-our-terms-but-what-can-the-west-accept-and-at-what-cost
• Menzie Chinn on if-you-think-the-russian-government-is-doing-just-fine-because-of-oil-gas-revenues , tracking-the-russian-economy-are-sanctions-working

Asia

• The Cosmopolitan Globalist on the-iran-mess Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on china-q2-takes-an-expected-dive
• noahopinion on china-is-flailing
• Adam Lockyer on why-chinas-challenges-to-australian-ships-in-the-south-and-east-china-seas-are-likely-to-continue
• Donna Weeks on shadow-abe
• Sasha Fegan on india-s-social-media-crackdown-challenge-rules-based-order
• Khunghoon Kim on the-interpreter/indonesia-investment-authority-jokowi-s-trouble-shooter

Wonk

• Great Transformations on twilight-imperium Thanks Brad
• Abhijan Rej on quad-needs-futures-focus
• Tim Harford on the-high-price-we-pay-for-social-media
• Nick Gruen on elections-are-all-about-competition-right-they-werent-way-back-when
• coppolla comment on celsiuss-failure
• noahopinion on nutty-macroeconomic-theories-will-ruin-your-countrys-economy
• stumbling and mumbling on trinkets-of-frivolous-utility
• Michael Strain on russia-oil-price-cap-yellen-plan Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on the-1970s-myths-of-left-and-right-about-inflation-and-trade-unions
• Global Inequality on hopelessness Thanks Nick

General

• Sarah Webb on a-cosmic-time-machine-how-the-james-webb-space-telescope-lets-us-see-the-first-galaxies-in-the-universe
• Stanley Serafin on climate-conflict-collapse-how-drought-destabilised-the-last-major-precolonial-mayan-city
• Joanna Moncrief and Mark Horowitz on depression-is-probably-not-caused-by-a-chemical-imbalance-in-the-brain-new-study
• Merry Fitzpatrick and Irwin Rosenburg on warsaw-ghettos-defiant-jewish-doctors-secretly-documented-the-medical-effects-of-nazi-starvation-policies-in-a-book-recently-rediscovered-on-a-library-shelf
• Vanessa Pirotta on curious-kids-why-dont-whales-have-teeth-like-we-do
• Howard Manns and Kate Burridge on is-australian-rhyming-slang-in-a-bit-of-froth-and-bubble-lets-take-a-captain-cook-spoiler-the-billy-lids-may-hold-the-key

Climate

• Moyhu on giss-june-global-temperature-up-by-008-from-may
• Essays concerning on stuff-nonsense-confronts-climate-change
• met office on summer-2022-a-historic-season-for-northern-hemisphere-heatwaves
• Joel Eissenburg on the-air-we-breathe
• Andrew King on the-uk-just-hit-40-for-the-first-time-its-a-stark-reminder-of-the-deadly-heat-awaiting-australia
• and Then Theres Physics on flicc
• Kevin Trenberth on how-not-to-solve-the-climate-change-problem
• noahopinion on how-we-will-fight-climate-change
• the conversable economist on carbon-pricing-and-coverage-around-the-world

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-mapping-the-terrain-survey-of-students-teachers-and-parents-in-majority-muslim-societies
  
• dont-believe-the-dental-anxiety-hype
  
• what-happens-to-the-wall-street-journals-reputation-when-they-publish-a-regular-column-by-someone-associated-with-fraudulent-research
  
• where-did-the-expression-six-sided-number-cube-come-from
  
• vegetarians-and-covid-after-adjusting-for-important-confounders-researchers-who-are-willing-to-make-strong-unsupported-conclusions-are-had-73-or-0-27-95-ci-0-10-to-0-81-and-59-or-0-41-95-ci
  
• unsupervised-learning-gets-a-bad-rap
  
• predicting-consumers-choices-in-the-age-of-the-internet-ai-and-almost-perfect-tracking-some-things-change-the-key-challenges-do-not
  
• statschat on sampling-and-automation, briefly
• Kaiser Fung on what-is-ab-testing-2, predicting-invariables

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• gangsters politicians and international bureaucrats
• Astral codex ten on book-review-the-man-from-the-future Thanks nick

vox wonk

• policymaking-trust-and-demand-public-services
  
• communication-costs-science-and-innovation
  
• gender-gap-top-role-networks
  
• impact-mechanisation-wages-and-employment
  
• central-banks-and-climate-policies
  
• fighting-populism-its-own-turf
  
• russia-s-war-worsens-outlook-commission-s-summer-interim-forecast
  
• gains-trade-international-transport-costs-still-matter
  
• regional-development-trap-europe
  
• net-foreign-asset-position-us
  
• levelling-productivity-gaps-uk
  
• end-crypto-diversification-myth
  
• optimal-inflation-target-views-600-economists