South Australia and Renewables

 As reported at Renew economy world-first-south-australia-achieves-100pct-solar-and-lowest-prices-in-australia.

Alas the headline is somewhat misleading. The 100% reliance on renewables was only an hour but the lowest wholesale prices were for the quarter.

So let us dig a little deeper into SA's future.

South Australia has the lowest prices and the most secure electricity grid in Australia. It is a net energy exporter to the other states and it appears will always be so.

This is why so many batteries are being built there. A battery is useless unless the renewables in question produce more electricity than they allowed to market.

South Australia can only ne a net energy exporter if they produce most of the energy locally at peak demand times. the idea they are a net exporter because wand generates more electricity than is needed at night time (a  period of low demand) is laughable and is only put forward by innumerates.

Around the Traps 29/1/21

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on a-year-on
• Sarah Duffy et al on its-not-just-cricket-australia-day-isnt-the-commercial-winner-it-used-to-be
• Tauel Harper on laws-making-social-media-firms-expose-major-covid-myths-could-help-australias-vaccine-rollout
• Archa Fox on not-sure-about-the-pfizer-vaccine-now-its-been-approved-in-australia-you-can-scratch-these-4-concerns-straight-off-your-list
• Ross Gittins on the-economy-doesnt-work-well-without-good-public-servants
• Kevin Bonham on the-federal-governments-majority-is-three-not-one
• Ketan Joshi on one-year-after-black-summer-bushfire-crisis-media-misinformation-still-burns
• Greg Jericho on australias-recession-is-weird-and-wacky-but-not-our-worst, its-not-just-the-pandemic-stupid-australias-economy-has-been-weak-for-years
• Lorinda Cramer on dressed-for-success-as-workers-return-to-the-office-men-might-finally-shed-their-suits-and-ties
• Adam Dunn on how-do-we-counter-covid-misinformation-challenge-it-directly-with-the-facts
• Cath Ferguson on most-government-information-on-covid-19-is-too-hard-for-the-average-australian-to-understand
• renew economy on barnaby-joyce-shows-why-a-coalition-government-may-never-embrace-climate-action, butler-dumped-as-labors-climate-opposition-collapses-at-a-truly-pivotal-moment, world-first-south-australia-achieves-100pct-solar-and-lowest-prices-in-australia
• Institutional Economics on reforming-australian-monetary-policy?
• Peter Whiteford on robodebt-was-a-policy-fiasco-with-a-human-cost-we-have-yet-to-fully-appreciate
• Jason Sharples et al on how-heatwaves-and-drought-combine-to-produce-the-perfect-firestorm
• Stephen Duckett and Anika Stobart on productivity-commission-health-report-provides-useful-information-but-leaves-some-big-questions-unanswered

Northern America

• Robert Waldmann on what-is-to-be-done-with-the-senate
• Aaron Rupar on fauci-birx-interviews-trump-coronavirus-response
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-republicans-oppose-deficits-only-when-democrats-hold-the-white-house
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-december-new-home-sales
• Erin Hurley on making-america-govern-again
• Zac Beauchamp on marjorie-taylor-green-kill-democrats-republicans-history-conspiracy-theories

Europe

• Binoy Kampmark on auf-wiedersehen-mutti-how-angela-merkels-centrist-politics-shaped-germany-and-europe
• Rob Mainwaring on as-britain-passes-100-000-covid-deaths-boris-johnson-is-in-a-crisis-of-his-own-making

Asia

• Barkley Rosser on is-biden-going-to-blow-reentering-iran
• Sanjay Ruparelia on indias-farmers-are-right-to-protest-against-agricultural-reforms
• Peter Beinart on what-the-lincoln-project-gets-wrong-about-israel-palestine

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on the-two-sides-of-austerity
• Tim Harford on is-first-dose-first-the-right-vaccination-strategy
• Robert Waldmann on desirable-incentive-effects-of-income-taxation-v
• and Then Theres Physics on alan-s-bottle
• stumbling and mumbling on endogenous-policy
• the conversable economist on the-importance-of-unimportant-inventions
• john rice and Nigel Martin on can-teslas-share-price-be-justified-probably-not
• Lowy Institute on covid-performance
• Raina Macintyre on can-vaccines-offer-exit-plan-covid-19
• Roger Farmer on rebuilding-macroeconomic-theory

General

• David Appell on the-10-greatest-predictions-in-physics
• Vincent Ho on do-men-really-take-longer-to-poo

Climate

• S Anna Florin et al on burnt-ancient-nutshells-reveal-the-story-of-climate-change-at-kakadu-now-drier-than-ever-before
• Ketan Joshi on wind-and-solar-lead-charge-as-renewables-overtake-fossil-fuels-in-europe
• Variable Variability on new-paper-multitest-climate-trends
• skeptical science on case study: identifying myths and fallacies in climate science

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• my-reply-three-words-fake-data-simulation
  
• tessa-hadley-on-john-updike
  
• the-norm-of-entertainment
  
• hierarchical-stacking
  
• three-coronavirus-quickies
  
• hierarchical-stacking-part-ii
  
• the-textbook-paradox-textbooks-more-than-a-very-few-years-old-cannot-even-be-given-away-but-new-textbooks-are-mostly-made-by-copying-from-former-ones
  
• tukeyian-uphill-battles
  
• there-is-only-one-reality-and-we-cannot-demand-consistency-from-any-other
  
• team-stanford
  
• i-was-drunk-at-the-podium-and-i-knew-my-results-werent-strong
  
• mortality-data-2015-2020-around-the-world/
  
• how-were-duped-by-data-and-how-we-can-do-better
  
• kill-the-math-in-the-intro-stat-course
  
• wombats-shttin-brix-in-the-tail
  
• statschat on the-8-solution
• Kaiser Fung on vaccines-free-you-from-the-herd, the-business-managers-guide-to-the-one-dose-two-dose-vaccine-debate, actions-have-consequences-the-messy-aftermath-of-one-dose-pfizer, how-the-uk-justified-its-vaccination-strategy

Econometrics

• the conversable economist on the-reproducibility-challenge-with-economic-data
• No Hesitations on machine-learning-advances-for-time-series-forecasting

Dianne Coyle (quirky+ book reviews)

• Henry Farrell on freedom-from-the-market
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• how-asylum-policies-deterred-jewish-migration-out-nazi-germany
  
• coronavirus-and-banking-evaluating-policy-options-avoiding-financial-crisis
  
• covid-19-and-migrant-workers-employment-prospects-europe
  
• dynamic-impact-exporting-firm-rd-investment
  
• brexit-uncertainty-and-trade-disintegration-europe-and-beyond
  
• impact-covid-19-firms-default-probability-japan
  
• dynamic-impact-exporting-firm-rd-investment
  
• brexit-uncertainty-and-trade-disintegration-europe-and-beyond
  
• scenario-analysis-contingency-planning-and-central-bank-communications
  
• when-flexible-exchange-rates-don-t-insulate-economies-external-shocks
  
• covid-19-stimulus-payments-evidence-japan
  
• doughnut-effect-covid-19-cities
  
• monetary-policy-and-productivity-new-transmission-channel
  
• moral-hazard-fear-markets-and-how-central-banks-responded-covid-19
  
• deaths-despair-and-incidence-excess-mortality-2020
  

Albanese making strange decisions.

 It is reported that Albanese will get rid of Mark Butler as the ALP frontbencher on climate and associated matters and be replaced by Chris Bowen their spokesman on health.

I find this strange for a number of reasons.

Firstly He is easily the most knowledgeable person in the parliament on climate. 

Secondly Butler has performed well in his portfolio. It is not his fault that neither Shorten nor Albanese have correctly run with what he has recommended.

Thirdly he is easily on top of the Minister not that it is very hard given it is Angus Taylor.

Fourthly Bowen has only been in the shadow health portfolio since the election.

What we have here is politicians making decisions when they have no idea of why the last election was won or lost.  The reason for this is the pollsters got it badly wrong and have yet to show us how they are going to correct this.

Bowen will be competent but is still gun shy from the last election. It appears the left wing Albanese is trying to stem any 'problems' by solidifying NSW right wing support. This is the reverse of the past and so ironic on any levels.

Australia Day should not be January 26

 It is absurd Australia celebrates Australia day on January 26.

Firstly it is inaccurate to say the first fleet got here on that day. It was in Botany Bay a day earlier.

Secondly Cook claimed the land for the UK in 1770.

Lastly Australia became a nation and country on January 1 1901.

Thus Australia day should be on January 1. This totally removes all discussion of invasion and colonialism to January 26 not Australia day. This would be a good thing because as a nation we have to come to terms with reconciliation with our Aboriginals.

This means we can celebrate our nationhood separately to reconciliation.

On a related topic can we just get rid of 'gongs' on Australia day and any other day. They are awarded for what nick Gruen once said for doing their job. Margaret court was the greatest female tennis paler but why does she get a 'gong' for that??

Around the Traps 22/1/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy,

• Greg Jericho on the-biggest-coalition-conspiracy-theory-is-climate-change-denial
• Hao Tan et al on forget-about-the-trade-spat-coal-is-passe-in-much-of-china-and-thats-a-bigger-problem-for-australia
• Kevin Davis on ideology-triumphs-over-evidence-morrison-government-drops-the-ball-on-banking-reform
• renew economy on electric-vehicles-help-drive-green-investment-to-new-global-high-in-2020, as-biden-acts-on-climate-morrison-reactivates-fossil-rhetoric
• Gary Mortimer and Louise Grimmer on the-rise-and-rise-of-aldi-two-decades-that-changed-supermarket-shopping-in-australia
• Tama Leaver on webs-inventor-says-news-media-bargaining-code-could-break-the-internet-hes-right-but-theres-a-fix

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on is-a-dollar-crash-coming, will-joe-bidens-fiscal-stimulus-overheat-the-american-economy
• Jennifer Hunt on as-joe-biden-prepares-to-become-president-the-us-still-reels-from-the-deadly-consequences-of-alternative-facts
• Richard Kreitner on why-its-time-to-take-secessionist-talk-seriously
• Sussan Glasser on obituary-for-a-failed-presidency
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-december-housing-starts
• Scott Lucas on joe-biden-sends-a-clear-message-to-the-watching-world-americas-back
• Richard Holden on bidens-economic-centrism-isnt-exciting-but-right-for-these-divisive-times
• Eric Kramer on trump-on-his-own-terms

Europe

• mumbling and stumbling on debates-fake-and-genuine
• Mainly Macro on who-caused-our-current-covid-crisis
• Alexander Titov on alexei-navalny-novichok-didnt-stop-russian-opposition-leader-but-a-prison-sentence-might
• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-so-near-and-yet
• Chris Bertram on globalism-and-the-incoherence-of-tory-brexit

Asia

• Aarti Bettigeri on india-launches-mammoth-vaccine-drive
• Shankaran Nambiar on resisting-uncertainty-malaysia-finding-itself
• Alexi Heale on japan-under-suga-the-delicate-balancing-act
• Elliot Zaagman on where-world-jack-ma
• Peter Holmes on the-interpreter/beijing-s-wolf-warriors-score-own-goals
• Barkley Rosser on will-north-korea-explode-after-biden-becomes-president

Wonk

• Tim Harford on what-puzzles-and-poker-teach-us-about-misinformation
• the conversable economist on more-on-origins-of-pushing-on-string
• Robert Waldmann on desirable-incentive-effects-of-income-taxation-iii, public-debt-may-have-no-fiscal-cost
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-increasing-income-tax-progressivity-trickle-up-not-trickle-down-economics
• Verica Rupar and Tom de Smedt on trumps-time-is-up-but-his-twitter-legacy-lives-on-in-the-global-spread-of-qanon-conspiracy-theories
• Damien Spry on why-twitter-was-right-dump-trump
• Tyler Cowen on consistency-about-elasticities
• Dennis Muller on to-publish-or-not-to-publish-the-medias-free-speech-dilemmas-in-a-world-of-division-violence-and-extremism
• stumbling and mumbling on character-context-and-work
• Eric Lonergan on qe-is-debt-reduction

General

• Ramesh Thakur on irrepressibles-tame-invincibles-their-impregnable-fortress
• BOM Blog on explainer-what-influences-air-temperature

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on on-baselines-and-climate-normals
• Peter Sinclair on master-class-in-climate-denial-gaslighting
• renew economy on ticking-fossil-industry-methane-bomb-must-be-defused-iea
• skeptical Science on global warming attribution study

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• youre-a-data-scientist-at-a-local-hospital-and-youve-been-asked-to-present-to-the-physicians-on-communicating-statistical-information-to-patients-what-should-you-say
  
• weights-in-statistics
  
• simulation-based-calibration-two-theorems
  
• subtleties-of-discretized-density-plots
  
• arsenic
  
• what-about-that-new-paper-estimating-the-effects-of-lockdowns-etc
  
• new-textbook-statistics-for-health-data-science-by-etzioni-mandel-and-gulati
  
• statschat on drunk-graphics, 
• Kaiser Fung on how-nyc-restaurants-manage-queues, record-deaths-every-day vaccines-free-you-from-the-herd

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on mixtures-of-predictive-densities

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• places-and-not
  
• are-humans-or-computers-more-reasonable
  
• Sam Roggeveen on the-interpreter/book-review-ministry-future
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox wonk

• robot-adoption-german-plants
  
• choice-and-outcomes-deceased-donor-kidney-assignment
  
• workplace-integration-and-gender-attitudes
  
• triple-effect-covid-19-chinese-exports
  
• how-networks-influential-individuals-helped-destroy-one-world-s-most-durable-democracies-and-legitimise-racist
  
• bond-returns-sovereign-debt-crises-investors-perspective
  
• merits-fire-sales-and-bailouts-light-covid-19-pandemic
  
• trade-and-covid-19-lessons-first-wave
  
• impact-covid-19-productivity
  
• value-vaccine-end-covid-19-worth-between-5-and-15-wealth
  
• taking-oligopoly-seriously-macroeconomics
  
• interaction-between-macroprudential-and-monetary-policy-through-global-banks-new-cross-country-evidence-international
  
• issue-salience-and-political-stereotypes
  
• trump-berlusconi-and-damage-entrepreneurs-economic-policy
  
• trade-and-welfare-benefits-deep-trade-agreements
  
• policy-responses-corporate-solvency-problem-ongoing-covid-19-crisis
  

What a test what a series

 I did not see that coming.

This was a magnificent win by essentially  India's B side against us. There was a lot of Headingl and Stokes in this win. In essence our batting let us down, India had two bowlers who weren't anywhere near test class yet they got us out twice! Then our bowling did. Starc and Lyons were missing in action in both Sydney and Brisbane.

Let us go back for a minute

 India got thrashed in Adelaide. However the 36 was a one-off. Good balls got edges and catches were taken. It will never occur again. Good balls will be missed and catches will be dropped. It should be noted before India's second innings they were in charge.  Australia got over confident over this  whereas India gained strength . India lost players but grew another leg.

They totally outplayed us in Melbourne. They ALL did. Everyone played their part the captain more so.

In Sydney They almost won as our bowlers tired. More on that later.

I have already written about Brisbane. Clearly they have some promising palyers,

What of Australia. The big L had a good average but that hides how very lucky he was, Dropped catches and a lot of snicks means you are not in good form. We have problems at the top of the order and in the middle.

We also have problems in bowling. Starc has lost his late inswinger. It is because his right foot is pointing to the Keeper not first slip. thus he is open chested. He loses swing and pace. Lyons was unimpressive. He never looked like taking wickets.

It was an enjoyable test and an enjoyable series.

US Politics

 Steve from Brisbane has nailed it so I won't write my thoughts as I do not have to.

See also HERE, HERE and HERE