Joel Fitzgibbon goes

 Joel Fitzgibbon has left the ALP front bench and has been replaced by Ed Husic.

The first thing to say is the ALP have had a great improvement in quality. Husice is way better than Fizgibbon.

The second thing to say is perhaps the main reason why Fitzgibbon has done this is he can say things on the back bench he cannot on the front bench and he did get a big fright last election.

I also have to say Fitzgibbon needs to read the Deloitte access economics publication because if he does he will then realise GDP will be greater and thus there will be more jobs if the country addresses climate change.

Hopefully the ALP does and will.

Trump has lost

 Well we now know Trump has been beaten in a vote that in the end is not close. Once all the votes are tallied the difference could be substantial.

True to form he has acted like an immature schoolboy. Remember he did this when he won last time so it is no surprise. Just like last time there are plenty of allegations but as the Yanks are prone to say 'Where's the beef'?.

There is none. If there is the Courts will examine them in intricate detail. This has yet to happen and in reality on listening to the allegations is unlikely to happen.

We can say with great confidence the polls were badly wrong. ( I heard with amusement the innumerate Chris Kenny assert only he predicted the late swing. On what evidence was this late swing???)

I think we can say Trump's vote was larger than most expected because of Trump and Biden campaigning on different issues.

It will be invigorating to watch an adult back in the Whitehouse. It could well be quite boring! 

I should have spoken about Trump saying he only lost because of fraud. In the end there will be two reactions. Largely Trump will be ignored. His allegations have no substance and he is merely a sore loser.

However there will be a significant minority of people who will lose faith in the institution of voting.  This is what occurs in third world counties where people resort to violence at worst or protest at bestr to change a government.

This again shows Trump is not a conservative.

Around the Traps 6/1/20

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris Salisbury on three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election
• John Quiggin on labor-and-the-greens
• Ross Gittins on economies-malfunction-when-we-cant-trust-our-leaders, we-should-stop-backing-losers-in-the-climate-change-cup
• Ian Ramsey on a-rushed-move-to-virtual-agms-would-disempower-shareholders
• AJ Brown on explainer-what-is-the-proposed-commonwealth-integrity-commission-and-how-would-it-work
• Jade Guan and Wen-Si Jung on taiwan-rising-stakes-australia
• Institutional economics on the-rba-finally-delivers-on-qe
• Brenton Zampatti and Chris Bice on good-news-from-the-river-murray-these-2-fish-species-have-bounced-back-from-the-millennium-drought-in-record-numbers
• Peter Martin on 5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before
• Graham Readfearn on renewables-cut-australias-emissions-more-than-covid-energy-analysis-finds
• Max Maund on 90-of-buildings-in-bushfire-prone-areas-arent-built-to-survive-fires-a-national-policy-can-start-to-fix-this
• renew economy on south-australia-signs-supply-deal-for-playford-big-battery-and-cultana-solar-farm
• Greg Jericho on australias-interest-rates-are-low-and-staying-low-time-to-ask-for-a-better-home-loan
• Thomas Cole Hunter et al on can-we-safely-burn-waste-to-make-fuel-like-they-do-in-denmark-well-its-complicated
• Gabriel De Silva on frequent-extreme-bushfires-are-our-new-reality-we-need-to-learn-how-to-live-with-smoke-filled-air

Northern America

• Brad De Long on the-economic-incompetence-of-republican-presidents-project-syndicate
• Robert Breunig on hijacking-anxiety-how-trump-weaponised-social-alienation-into-racialised-economics
• Natasha Kassam on blurring-fact-and-fiction-us-election
• Nadia Hilliard on us-election-why-democratic-legitimacy-remains-at-stake
• the conversable economist on the-dam-removal-problem
• Daniel Flitton on trump-legacy

Europe

• Greg Barton and Fethi Mansouri on for-french-muslims-every-terror-attack-brings-questions-about-their-loyalty-to-the-republic
• stumbling and mumbling on a-great-deal-of-ruin
• stumbling and mumbling on farages-dangerous-appeal

Asia

• Khang Vu on why-kim-jong-un-will-soon-miss-donald-trump
• Jeffrey Robertson on coming-soon-neutral-south-korea
• Meia Nouwens on is-china-speeding-up-military-modernisation-it-may-but-its-not-yet
• Robert Whitol on china-s-problematic-lending-comes-home-roost

Wonk

• Stephan Fruling and Andrew O'Neil on nuclear-ban-treaty-wishful-thinking-over-realism
• Tyler Cowen on new-results-on-vaccine-mask-interaction
• Mainly Macro on how-governments-in-west-failed-to-learn
• Ben Scott on what-does-rules-based-order-mean
• Uneasy Money on my-paper-fiat-money-cryptocurrencies-and-the-pure-theory-of-money-is-now-available-on-ssrn
• the conversable economist on fall-2020-journal-of-economic-perpectives

General

• Monica Germana on sean-connery-his-five-best-bond-movies-rated

Climate

• Olef Maneke on photos-from-the-field-these-magnificent-whales-are-adapting-to-warming-water-but-how-much-can-they-take
• Moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-down-in-november, october-global-surface-templs-down-0153-from-september

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• my-proposal-is-to-place-criticism-within-the-scientific-or-social-scientific-enterprise-rather-than-thinking-about-it-as-something-coming-from-outside-or-as-something-that-is-tacked-on-at-the-end
  
• fake-facts-in-covid-19-science-kentucky-vs-tennessee
  
• so-whats-with-that-claim-that-biden-has-a-96-chance-of-winning-some-thoughts-with-josh-miller
  
• as-a-forecaster-how-important-is-it-to-have-a-few-elections-under-your-belt
  
• shttin-brix-in-the-tail
  
• why-it-can-be-rational-to-vote-3
  
• post-election-post
  
• how-the-election-might-have-looked-in-a-world-without-polls
  
• dont-kid-yourself-the-polls-messed-up-and-that-would-be-the-case-even-wed-forecasted-biden-losing-florida-and-only-barely-winning-the-electoral-college
  
• heres-why-rot13-text-looks-so-cool
  
• i-like-this-way-of-mapping-electoral-college-votes
  
• is-there-a-middle-ground-in-communicating-uncertainty-in-election-forecasts
  
• Kaiser Fung on the-complexity-of-modeling-uncertainty, story-first-thinking-from-the-business-press-to-election-night, how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-13-no-love-for-independence

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on russian-holidays-predict-troll-activity

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-digital-faustian-pact
  
• talking-about-the-future
  
• John West on review-china-bubble-never-pops

Vox Wonk

• deviations-covered-interest-parity-demand-matters
  
• enormous-potential-social-media-measure-human-culture
  
• political-polarisation-and-expected-economic-outcomes
  
• couple-formation-and-parental-wealth
  
• regulatory-arbitrage-teacher-hiring-and-retention
  
• globalisation-and-value-domestic-highway-infrastructure
  
• wage-curve-across-wealth-distribution
  
• lives-saved-during-economic-downturns
  
• impact-public-employment-evidence-west-germany
  
• tiger-mothers-and-standardised-tests-role-parental-influence-cross-country-gaps-human-capital
  
• deforestation-spreading-covid-19-brazils-indigenous-peoples
  
• improving-political-sustainability-next-generation-eu
  
• impact-travel-restrictions-trade-during-covid-19
  
• how-covid-19-making-us-rethink-safety-net-programmes
  
• covid-19-across-european-regions-role-border-controls
  
• spending-dynamics-and-panic-buying-during-covid-19-first-wave
  
• corruption-public-procurement
  
• resilience-time-crisis
  
• hospital-quality-and-deaths-covid-19-us-counties
  

What an election

 The Democrats really need to have a hard think about why they have not won in a landslide.

Trump is clearly incompetent as his reaction to the coronavirus has showed. Yet no huge surge in votes and no majority in the Senate despite the Republicans abysmal record there particularly on combatting the coronavirus recession.

One reason could be that there are far more morons allowed to vote than people realised.

For some considered views see 

Andrew Gelman

• post-election-post
  
• how-the-election-might-have-looked-in-a-world-without-polls
  
• dont-kid-yourself-the-polls-messed-up-and-that-would-be-the-case-even-wed-forecasted-biden-losing-florida-and-only-barely-winning-the-electoral-college
  

Kaiser Fung

• the-complexity-of-modeling-uncertainty
  
• story-first-thinking-from-the-business-press-to-election-night
  

Did not everyone really think Trump would declare victory on the night when he had no right too.

How about saying no new votes where he was leading but not in Arizona where he is not!

I should have added those so-called fantastic pollsters for both parties git it as wrong as the public polls. Charlie Cooke and friends got it as wrong as everyone else!

Oh dear someone has no idea of how the votes went in 2018

Sky after dark

 It is election day in the USA so why write about something important!

We get WIN on our TV here is Sydney so it is possible to watch Sky after dark.

My sons said to give it a go so I tried and was unsuccessful. Why you ask.

From about 7 p.m. when I switched there it was simply boring men who had gripes. I never saw a guest. There was little intellectual depth.

I can almost say this is always the case with people who call themselves conservatives.

They are not of course. All on Sky are trump lovers. They wouldn't know a rules based trading system if they fell over it. Attempting to destroy institutions. Nah they are blind.

I do feel sad for people who watch this guff. It is bad radio to hear a person rant and rant let alone television.

Tackling climate change is a must

 Deliotte economics produced a new report on Climate Change.

It is an interesting document.

I think I am right in saying it says if Australia does not adopt a zero carbon emissions by 2050 then GDP will be a lot smaller than it should be.

Will the ALP use this document properly.  I hope so.

Just how low can the Republicans go

 There are some who hold out hope the Republican party will go back to being a conservative party if Trump is defeated/

Do not count on it.

Remember Bill Clinton. He was impeached upon the findings of special prosecutor Ken Starr. ( He who examined issues way out of his brief but di not think Muller should.)

The impeachment was led amongst others one person who was indulging in adultery at the time and another who had had a child form a woman who was not his wife. He said this was an indiscretion of youth except he was over 30 at the time!

The republicans never accepted Bill Clinton winning. They thought it only occurred because of Ross Perot.  Unfortunately for them Bill Clinton was far superior in politics.

Come Obama and it was a similar thing except they had no specious reason for that. The worst thing the Republicans did was in the courts. They di not allow Obama to put many judges on the court below the Supreme court. ( yep that is stacking the courts).

They of course did not allow Obama to put a judge on the Supreme court when an  incumbent died on February.  They completely changed their position when one died this year.

Finally we have Republicans indulging in voter suppression. In Texas if you wish to vote beforehand you have to drive some 80k in some cases. They also wanted a lot of votes cast disallowed on very specious grounds.

Think of it a major party is so scared of losing they indulge in nothing less than voter suppression.

Just on absentee/ early voting some states allow votes of the military at least a week until they stop allowing votes to be counted.  How is it the Republicans believe this is allowed for the military but but private citizens?

The Republicans embraced Trump because that is the way they behave now'. Oh for a  modern day James Baker.

I hope there is a landslide just on this issue.